politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Four goods and a conclusion

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Oh dear, I've just been retweeted by Louise Mensch!

The mortification!

In approval?

What was it?

On Corbyn ...

https://twitter.com/spajw/status/744449759478489088

Charles said:

PlatoSaid said:

Britain Elects
The Leave campaign represents...
The establishment: 19%
Ordinary people: 26%
Both equally: 22%
(via YouGov / 16 - 17 Jun)

The Leave campaign understands the concerns of ordinary people...
Well: 46%
Badly: 35%
(via YouGov / 16 - 17 Jun)

Didn't EICIPM have a big lead on "understands our concerns"? Not really predictive question in my view, although I think voters are smart enough to know the difference between a GE and a referendum and so tge factors may play out differently

There are similarities between the underlying poll numbers for each side in this campaign, and Labour and Conservatives last year. But also one difference. The Remain leaders are more distrusted than the Leave leaders.

blackburn63 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Scott_P said:

The message is clear: if you don’t want your communities swamped by brown people, vote to leave the EU. This is racism. And if you wish to argue it isn’t, then I’m going to believe you’re a racist.

Of course, Farage and his fellow travellers – Tory MPs Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, for example – maintain their campaign isn’t about race, it’s about “sovereignty”, it’s about “believing in Britain”, it’s about “taking back control”. But, even if those claims are correct – and I am unconvinced they are – the Leave campaign is, to a very large degree, a racist one.

If you are a Leave voter and offended by this, then please raise your concerns with Farage, Johnson, and Gove. Your desire to leave the EU may not be based on matters of race but the campaign which might yet deliver your dream is. You, whether willingly or not, are on the side of racists.

Read more: http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/euan-mccolm-i-want-my-country-back-from-nasty-nationalists-1-4158434#ixzz4C0JVfl8S

What rubbish. The whole point is that skilled and valuable brown people cant come in at the moment because unskilled and not required white people from eastern Europe can come in without let or hindrance

Its very telling, we have a thread header extolling the positive reasons to vote Remain yet in no time they resort to the default setting of calling us racists.

The conservative manifesto will be interesting:

We know we spent months abusing you but will you vote for us please?

Faux outrage as per usual. Absolutely nobody is claiming that all Leavers are racist and that is certainly true. It does not, however, follow that no Leavers are racist. It doesn't take 5 minutes on the internet to locate them and see which camp they are in.

tyson said:

foxinsoxuk said:

tyson said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

What was the gist of Lowlander's anecdote?

In essence, his mother thought the reaction to Jo Cox's murder was mawkish and overwrought.

I think that's unfair, but he was reporting an opinion, not endorsing it.

No Sean... actually.. Lowlander was reporting that his mother felt contempt for Jo Cox (obviously, so did Mair)...

Lot's have people have commented on the reaction, and whether they think it is appropriate or not. That is fine. But to post that someone feels contempt for Jo Cox, in the aftermath of her brutal murder was really not quite right.

To be fair he did label his original post as "not a Safe Space" warning people that they might be offended. Of course he should not expect a "Safe Space" in return.

Fox- you asked me last night about stick or twist....I've checked Betfair....I've stuck so far, but it is still drifting- out to 3.5. I am though hedging to be honest too- I need to buy a wedge of Euros, so what I'll lose on betfair, I'll for back with the currency transaction.

I'll only cash out Betfair when I am convinced about the result

I have done a partial cashout to reduce exposure. I have kept my turnout bets standing. I think the 60-65% band is good value. Currently 7.4 on Betfair exch.

SouthamObserver said:

Gove so shifty on Marr.

Corbyn arguing for unlimited immigration.

Only one winner.

Cameron and Osborne must despair. Desperately spending the last week trying to get the discussion away from immigration and onto the economy, and Corbyn decides that what Remain needs is one of his cosy philosophical nuanced chats.

Charles said:

PlatoSaid said:

Britain Elects
The Leave campaign represents...
The establishment: 19%
Ordinary people: 26%
Both equally: 22%
(via YouGov / 16 - 17 Jun)

The Leave campaign understands the concerns of ordinary people...
Well: 46%
Badly: 35%
(via YouGov / 16 - 17 Jun)

Didn't EICIPM have a big lead on "understands our concerns"? Not really predictive question in my view, although I think voters are smart enough to know the difference between a GE and a referendum and so tge factors may play out differently

I do t think the understands concernsis predictive either. Not sure if being a referendum will make that much difference to its relevance.

SouthamObserver said:

Gove so shifty on Marr.

Corbyn arguing for unlimited immigration.

Only one winner.

Marr?

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent Cyclefree. I've said this for months. The British want a very different sort of relationship with Europe:

Apart from the British who do want that kind of relationship. Too many people on the Leave side of the argument presume to talk for Britain.

There's very little doubt most British voters want less Europe. The British Social Attitudes survey is crystal clear.

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent Cyclefree. I've said this for months. The British want a very different sort of relationship with Europe:

Apart from the British who do want that kind of relationship. Too many people on the Leave side of the argument presume to talk for Britain.

Correct and it is a vision so dismal and so inward looking that if Leave win next Friday and the Faragists take control people won't need to worry about overcrowding any longer

alex. said:

SouthamObserver said:

Gove so shifty on Marr.

Corbyn arguing for unlimited immigration.

Only one winner.

Cameron and Osborne must despair. Desperately spending the last week trying to get the discussion away from immigration and onto the economy, and Corbyn decides that what Remain needs is one of his cosy philosophical nuanced chats.

He just isn't very bright. More importantly, he is wrong and totally disconnected from most Labour voters.

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent Cyclefree. I've said this for months. The British want a very different sort of relationship with Europe:

Apart from the British who do want that kind of relationship. Too many people on the Leave side of the argument presume to talk for Britain.

If a far looser relationship with the EU was on offer that was perceived to be "cost free" to take, it would win by a landslide.

''He is a complete cretin. More importantly, he is wrong and totally disconnected from most Labour voters.''

Nevertheless, I look forward to labour's unlimited immigration platform in 2020.

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

It's not a matter of being a few quid better off. It's a matter of avoiding long-lasting economic damage that will cause significant harm to millions of people. It is a negative, but for me and many others it is a very powerful one.

The fact is that we are so integrated into the EU that the case for withdrawal needs to be powerful and inarguable. The benefits need to be concrete and timetabled to make the downsides worth it. But Leave have provided nothing but speculation, conjecture and plainly false promises.

Is it worth doing significant harm to ourselves to achieve insignificant reductions in immigration? I cannot see it. That's why I'm Remain.

Leave will win though.

The serious and long lasting damage will happen if we remain. Immigration will continue at an unsustainable rate. Most of that immigration will be low skilled and minimum wage, hard working and ambitious but doing nothing for our productivity. In the meantime training of our indigenous population will continue to be regarded as a waste of money. Our population and GDP will continue to rise but our GDP per head will remain static at best.


Whilst in we risk becoming ever more integrated into a declining and uncompetitive market losing further ground to the rest of the world while we faff about with ever more absurd "rights" making our business less viable. We will continue to find that the current terms of trade provide us with a huge and growing structural trading deficit which gradually impoverishes our country.

We risk facing domination by an integrated Euro zone using QMV to drive through their agenda, not ours. Once the referendum is out of the way the pace of this will pick up again.

We will find it more difficult to negotiate opt outs from the various things that we don't like and there will be plenty of them. We are on a bus where we cannot pick the terminus but we continue to move into an ever more depressing neighbourhood.

And we will see all of this because remain will win. Being right will give me no satisfaction at all.

Absolutely spot on. Voting Remain is fool's gold.

SouthamObserver said:

alex. said:

SouthamObserver said:

Gove so shifty on Marr.

Corbyn arguing for unlimited immigration.

Only one winner.

Cameron and Osborne must despair. Desperately spending the last week trying to get the discussion away from immigration and onto the economy, and Corbyn decides that what Remain needs is one of his cosy philosophical nuanced chats.

He just isn't very bright. More importantly, he is wrong and totally disconnected from most Labour voters.

How long before they notice though?

foxinsoxuk said:

tyson said:

foxinsoxuk said:

tyson said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

What was the gist of Lowlander's anecdote?

In essence, his mother thought the reaction to Jo Cox's murder was mawkish and overwrought.

I think that's unfair, but he was reporting an opinion, not endorsing it.

No Sean... actually.. Lowlander was reporting that his mother felt contempt for Jo Cox (obviously, so did Mair)...

Lot's have people have commented on the reaction, and whether they think it is appropriate or not. That is fine. But to post that someone feels contempt for Jo Cox, in the aftermath of her brutal murder was really not quite right.

To be fair he did label his original post as "not a Safe Space" warning people that they might be offended. Of course he should not expect a "Safe Space" in return.

Fox- you asked me last night about stick or twist....I've checked Betfair....I've stuck so far, but it is still drifting- out to 3.5. I am though hedging to be honest too- I need to buy a wedge of Euros, so what I'll lose on betfair, I'll for back with the currency transaction.

I'll only cash out Betfair when I am convinced about the result

I have done a partial cashout to reduce exposure. I have kept my turnout bets standing. I think the 60-65% band is good value. Currently 7.4 on Betfair exch.

Thanks for that tip- I've just taken a little nibble

taffys said:

Corbyn arguing for unlimited immigration.

Is that labour policy for the next general election?

They can wave goodbye to at least fifty seats.

And the e.u

taffys said:

''I would add a fourth one, which is how do we bring in those that haven't benefited from globalisation, may be have lost from it? It's a challenge if we remain in the EU. ''

Remainers won't bother.

A passionate remainer friend thinks the leave campaign is essentially obese mobility scooter driving white people who haven't worked for three generations and won;t do the jobs immigrants do for peanuts.

Some very old-fashioned attitudes have re-emerged in recent years. It's not that far removed from the view that feeding the Irish would only encourage them to breed.

SouthamObserver said:

alex. said:

SouthamObserver said:

Gove so shifty on Marr.

Corbyn arguing for unlimited immigration.

Only one winner.

Cameron and Osborne must despair. Desperately spending the last week trying to get the discussion away from immigration and onto the economy, and Corbyn decides that what Remain needs is one of his cosy philosophical nuanced chats.

He just isn't very bright. More importantly, he is wrong and totally disconnected from most Labour voters.

I'm not sure what's worse for Labour's electoral chances. His political opinions or the fact that he sees absolutely zero need to temper them (or at the very least not talk about them) where they will inevitably cost votes (especially in the heat of a political campaign). Whilst it is the job of political leaders to lead and shape public opinion rather than follow it, the time to do that is not 4 days before the ballot box.

If he leads Labour into the next election it is entirely plausible to foresee occasions that he will appear in interviews disagreeing with his own party's manifesto.

alex. said:

SouthamObserver said:

alex. said:

SouthamObserver said:

Gove so shifty on Marr.

Corbyn arguing for unlimited immigration.

Only one winner.

Cameron and Osborne must despair. Desperately spending the last week trying to get the discussion away from immigration and onto the economy, and Corbyn decides that what Remain needs is one of his cosy philosophical nuanced chats.

He just isn't very bright. More importantly, he is wrong and totally disconnected from most Labour voters.

I'm not sure what's worse for Labour's electoral chances. His political opinions or the fact that he sees absolutely zero need to temper them (or at the very least not talk about them) where they will inevitably cost votes (especially in the heat of a political campaign). Whilst it is the job of political leaders to lead and shape public opinion rather than follow it, the time to do that is not 4 days before the ballot box.

If he leads Labour into the next election it is entirely plausible to foresee occasions that he will appear in interviews disagreeing with his own party's manifesto.

He already does - see Trident.

Here is what Corbyn actually said

@WhiteWednesday: Marr: "Is there any upper limit to free movement into this country?"
Corbyn: "I don't think you can have one."
#marr #EUref

Not unlimited immigration. Free movement as a key component of a free market.

murali_s said:

Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?

Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

Good news for LEAVE, Osborne's on the Peston show. Bad news is that very few will watch it.

''Some very old-fashioned attitudes have re-emerged in recent years. It's not that far removed from the view that feeding the Irish would only encourage them to breed.''

Can it be long before we have a Modest Proposal for the Working Class White People of England?

Roger said:

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent Cyclefree. I've said this for months. The British want a very different sort of relationship with Europe:

Apart from the British who do want that kind of relationship. Too many people on the Leave side of the argument presume to talk for Britain.

Correct and it is a vision so dismal and so inward looking that if Leave win next Friday and the Faragists take control people won't need to worry about overcrowding any longer

Roger predicting the luvvie exodus that always happens when they don't get their way. Why, the country was utterly depleted of them after Boris became mayor.

Oh....

peter_from_putney said:

Somehow, after last night's polls, much of the excitement and uncertainty has disappeared from the contest, evidenced by the fact that we've so far seen 220+ posts on this thread. Of late, we'd have seen twice that number by now.
Shame .... we are all so driven by polls these days, instead of by the underlying subject matter.

There is no debate to be had. Both sides are polarised to a religious degree. You'll get a more objective analysis from Arsenal fans on Tottenham and vice versa.

TheScreamingEagles said:

murali_s said:

Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?

Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

I assume you are deliberately channelling Sion Simon. Go on. Post it. You know you want to.

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

CD13 said:

Edmund,

"future migrants from Turkey instead of the actual people who everybody agrees can move to Britain because it's in the EU."

If you're in Tokyo, your ignorance is excusable. In Lincolnshire, the immigrants are Polish, Lithuanian, white and Christian and now make up 15 - 20% of the population from a standing start. Remember the reassurance that very few would come?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36389905

Is this racism or not? Or is it a matter of class sizes etc?

Edit: Oh, and they're good Catholic lads and lassies. They're also hard-working but I don't live in Boston anymore, so perhaps I shouldn't judge.

EiT's point is that the Leave campaign is not talking about these people. It is talking about Turks and other moslems.

Let us assume this referendum settles the matter of our membership for forty years like the last one did? How many member nations where there forty years ago versus now?

How many member nations do you think there will be in forty years time? Could it include Turkey?

Only if the UK government, elected by the British people, permits it. I'd say it's a very long way off and is not remotely imminent.

The UK government elected by the British people has done a lot of things they shouldn't. Eg ratifying Lisbon despite promising in their manifesto a referendum.

If independent we will revert to the old principle that no Parliament can bind it's successors. The problem with the EU is that once a decision is made it is irreversible without the nuclear option of Brexit. Lisbon can't be unratified. Turkish accession could not be reversed.

taffys said:

Corbyn arguing for unlimited immigration.

Is that labour policy for the next general election?

They can wave goodbye to at least fifty seats.

No, because Corbyn's policy of unlimited immigration is linked to throwing the Tories in the sea.....

TheScreamingEagles said:

murali_s said:

Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?

Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

A thousand years of (PB) Tory rule?

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

murali_s said:

Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?

Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

I assume you are deliberately channelling Sion Simon. Go on. Post it. You know you want to.

Is always good to remember hubris and nemesis are never far away.

http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase

But the good news is Mike's back tonight and I can put my feet up now.

RobD said:

Sunday.. people too busy at church/pub other things. Of course, they should be reading/commenting on PB from such places.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Good news for LEAVE, Osborne's on the Peston show. Bad news is that very few will watch it.

In all honesty, I know we all talk about how disliked Osborne is, but he has been very visible, which is odd? I recall in 2010 it was said Cameron was hiding him because of negative reactions he got, but that's certain,y not the case now. I guess the chancellor cannot sit out such a fight, nor can someone wanting to be leader, but the rest of the cabinet really do t seem to have put in any hard yards. If, and I do t think it would happen, remain win comfortably, against all odds Osborne could claim some credit given the effort he put in. The others not so much.

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Gove so shifty on Marr.

Corbyn arguing for unlimited immigration.

Only one winner.

Marr?

Southam's short post illustrates a basic problem. I've no doubt that if you have an unpopular view it's best to change the subject. That's "shifty". Or you can say what you think and risk losing votes. Sometimes, you'll persuade someone, and change the paradigm a little instead of pretending to agree with whatever people want.

Me, I'm tired of evasion. What happened to the idea that democracy involved politicians explaining what they think honestly and voters choosing what they want?

Charles said:

RobD said:

Sunday.. people too busy at church/pub other things. Of course, they should be reading/commenting on PB from such places.

Did I forget to include "secret meetings of the illuminati"? sorry

First time I've watched the Peston programme. He and it are awful.

Jonathan said:

peter_from_putney said:

Somehow, after last night's polls, much of the excitement and uncertainty has disappeared from the contest, evidenced by the fact that we've so far seen 220+ posts on this thread. Of late, we'd have seen twice that number by now.
Shame .... we are all so driven by polls these days, instead of by the underlying subject matter.

There is no debate to be had. Both sides are polarised to a religious degree. You'll get a more objective analysis from Arsenal fans on Tottenham and vice versa.

The contest is still on a knife edge. Either side could still win. If Corbyn wanting unlimited immigration into the UK becomes the issue of the final days, Remain will lose. The Labour vote will not come out to endorse that.

Whoever wins, my confident prediction is that the news will subsequently be full of stories of Buyers' Remorse. The debate has been of an extremely poor quality on both sides. That the debate closed down at the point when the disconnected were just starting to engage won't have helped. There's going to be a lot of people saying "Why didn't you tell us THAT would happen?"

NickPalmer said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Gove so shifty on Marr.

Corbyn arguing for unlimited immigration.

Only one winner.

Marr?

Southam's short post illustrates a basic problem. I've no doubt that if you have an unpopular view it's best to change the subject. That's "shifty". Or you can say what you think and risk losing votes. Sometimes, you'll persuade someone, and change the paradigm a little instead of pretending to agree with whatever people want.

Me, I'm tired of evasion. What happened to the idea that democracy involved politicians explaining what they think honestly and voters choosing what they want?

Getting some of what you want is better than getting none. Compromise is an essential part of democracy.

TheScreamingEagles said:

murali_s said:

Leave at 3.6 on Betfair. Is the tide turning or is this incredible value?

Shortly there will be a referendum, in which Remain will win, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual one nation Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

You're over your gloom of a few days ago?

Mr. Observer, a concise yet informative review

taffys said:

Absolutely spot on .

er....and Dave's target of tens of thousands? That isn;t a false prospectus?

At least Corbyn is honest.

Absolutely. That was why Remain were stuffed as long as Cameron was not our less fronting the campaign singlehandedly.

NickPalmer said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Gove so shifty on Marr.

Corbyn arguing for unlimited immigration.

Only one winner.

Marr?

Southam's short post illustrates a basic problem. I've no doubt that if you have an unpopular view it's best to change the subject. That's "shifty". Or you can say what you think and risk losing votes. Sometimes, you'll persuade someone, and change the paradigm a little instead of pretending to agree with whatever people want.

Me, I'm tired of evasion. What happened to the idea that democracy involved politicians explaining what they think honestly and voters choosing what they want?

It never existed except in dreams, since in the real world people explain things poorly or misunderstand them, voters misinterpret it or don't listen to it, and so on and so forth. Additionally, since a prospectus is put forward by a party to which members nominally ascribe as, whatever their flaws with it they think it the best path for the country, 'evasion' even if just by not talking about some things as they harm that prospectus, is a trade off with total honesty that has always happened.

How points are presented and which arguments are chosen to emphasise and which ones to downplay has always mattered.

If we want totally honest leaders who never evade a point, we may as well not have parties at all, as it seems to me the whole point of a party is you will vote and support some things you don't believe or care about in pursuit of a wider objective, and rarely if ever admit to. Making that trade off with your own beliefs.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Osborne on Peston is saying that we would have no product regulation with Brexit.

Probably due to the fact we'll have no industry to create products, nor have population to fill the factories due to nuclear annihilation.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Osborne on Peston is saying that we would have no product regulation with Brexit.

Osborne said that an ex Labour chancellor agreed with that emergency budget including cuts in services.....

Scott_P said:

taffys said:

So just unlimited immigration FROM THE EU, then.

Glad you cleared that up.

Not what he said either.

but is what he believes in.

surbiton said:

Casino_Royale said:

RobD said:

Thanks cyclefree. Even if we do vote remain, I suspect the EU will view us with suspicion, and our influence will be diminished somewhat (can you imagine a UK EU president?)

The ending of our EU membership is now a matter of when, not if, IMHO.

But if we do vote Remain, I expect we're in for a rather unpleasant few years of membership.

And, continued schism within the Conservative party.

It will be interesting to see how all parties cast themselves.

I now feel politically far closer to Gisela Stuart than I do George Osborne, for example.

taffys said:

Absolutely spot on .

er....and Dave's target of tens of thousands? That isn;t a false prospectus?

At least Corbyn is honest.

Exactly. He hasn't particularly argued for mass immigration, simply said truthfully that it's part of the package and we can't wish it away, so we should deal with the consequences through the immigration impact fund and working to make conditions better across the whole continent. Are we really better served with leaders who say oh yes, I understand your concern, and pretend to set targets that they KNOW will be missed?

kle4 said:

peter_from_putney said:

Somehow, after last night's polls, much of the excitement and uncertainty has disappeared from the contest, evidenced by the fact that we've so far seen 220+ posts on this thread. Of late, we'd have seen twice that number by now.
Shame .... we are all so driven by polls these days, instead of by the underlying subject matter.

Which is odd as the polls weren't that remarkable. There had been massive swings to leave, some swing back to remain, which many long predicted would happen I. The final week, was to be expected. It's not over.

Good morning all. I've been quiet because I had a lie-in, which is a ancient British folkway that I'm striving to preserve. All I have to offer at the moment is a potpourri.

- Lovely to see JackW back on his virtual feet; take it easy young man, you've been sorely missed.

- Corbyn should not be allowed to speak without a minder .

- Ronaldo's fiasco. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy, could it?

I sense that Leavers' heads are down a little this morning, which is a shame. I can't offer much comfort, I just don't think Leave have done enough. It might come down to differential turnout, but that's a forlorn hope.

As Cyclefree (the MVP of this campaign) says, how we proceed to address the stark divide in the country is our great challenge. Based on the sneering, race-card-playing metropolitan types we've seen both on PB and in the wider sphere, I'm not optimistic.

Finally, I shall aim for pseuds corner by relating a parable about the Travelling Salesman , a well known undergrad question we use to demonstrate various optimisation techniques. It's easy to plan the shortest route between two cities. It becomes much harder as you add more. Imagine trying to plot the shortest, most efficient route between all the state capitals in the USA.

A traditional way of approach is to generate a route, then make many small changes. If one of the new routes is shorter, use that as your new baseline. Rinse. Repeat. The issue is that eventually you might not be able to make any changes that improve the route, yet still have not achieved a good solution. This is called a local minima. Any change makes things worse. In computer science, we have tools to deal with local minima. It's harder with nations .

That is the EU today, in my view. It is stuck in a local minima. The Eurozone should pursue full monetary union. Non-EZ countries should pursue a much looser associate status based on the four principles, but including welfare and health harmonisation. Yet it can't. Each interim stage is worse than the status quo.