politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BMG polls brings good news for both sides
Comments
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Eddie Jones and Trevor Bayliss = Gods0
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He is indeed. He should be doing a piece before polling day.another_richard said:
I think he might be on holiday.MikeK said:Whats happened to Mr Herdson this Saturday, is he on holiday or has the nearness to polling day unnerved him?
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Leave need to hit hard on the immigration message for the final push.
Osborne mustn't be allowed to create the narrative on economics for the final stretch. Totally ignore him if need be and keep bringing the discussion back to immigration. A cross-party press conference to kick off campaigning again would be a good idea, with Boris/Stuart/Hoey/Gove fronting it and talking about "taking control" of our borders.
Hit on it hard.0 -
hopefully with 'that' poster behind them on every occasionViceroy said:Leave need to hit hard on the immigration message for the final push.
Osborne mustn't be allowed to create the narrative on economics for the final stretch. Totally ignore him if need be and keep bringing the discussion back to immigration. A cross-party press conference to kick off campaigning again would be a good idea, with Boris/Stuart/Hoey/Gove fronting it and talking about "taking control" of our borders.
Hit on it hard.0 -
New campaign thrust from REMAIN......
"Brexit 'would make Britain as insignificant as Guernsey'"
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-06-18/brexit-would-make-uk-as-insignificant-as-guernsey/
How not to win friends and influence people.0 -
And then young people from around the EU come to Britain for your flats and apprenticeships.Fenman said:Remain need to address the immigrant issue over the next few days. Of course, they can never reassure the racists, but most people would be reassured by Cameron promising to solve the problems people associate with immigration. 1,000,000 for young people; flats and studios, not executive mansions. Abolish student fees for nurses, real training schemes and real apprenticeships.
He'll have to dump Osbourne to do it, but greater love.....
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They have been hitting hard on immigration - a xenophobic and dog-whistling campaign that appeals to many peoples' guts. Very effective but leaves a disgusting taste in the mouth...Viceroy said:Leave need to hit hard on the immigration message for the final push.
Osborne mustn't be allowed to create the narrative on economics for the final stretch. Totally ignore him if need be and keep bringing the discussion back to immigration. A cross-party press conference to kick off campaigning again would be a good idea, with Boris/Stuart/Hoey/Gove fronting it and talking about "taking control" of our borders.
Hit on it hard.0 -
It gets worse the more you read.
"Leaving the EU would make Britain as insignificant as the island of Guernsey, France's economy minister Emmanuel Macron has said.
In an interview with Le Monde, Mr Macron said: "Leaving the EU would mean the 'Guernseyfication' of the UK, which would then be a little country on the world scale. It would isolate itself and become a trading post and arbitration place at Europe's border."
The French minister added that European Council would have to send "a very firm message and timetable" to the UK on the consequences of leaving the EU."0 -
No need. Keep it simple with the TAKE CONTROL background.Scrapheap_as_was said:
hopefully with 'that' poster behind them on every occasionViceroy said:Leave need to hit hard on the immigration message for the final push.
Osborne mustn't be allowed to create the narrative on economics for the final stretch. Totally ignore him if need be and keep bringing the discussion back to immigration. A cross-party press conference to kick off campaigning again would be a good idea, with Boris/Stuart/Hoey/Gove fronting it and talking about "taking control" of our borders.
Hit on it hard.
Link it to three points: Living standards, uncertainty (Turkey) and Control.0 -
I first read that as "Britain Ejects" and thought it was a new LEAVE site.marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 7m7 minutes ago
Two #EUref polls tonight: Opinium for the Observer and YouGov for the Times.
4 retweets 10 likes
Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Understand that one of them was likely to have been conducted from Thursday to Friday
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That's epic.TCPoliticalBetting said:New campaign thrust from REMAIN......
"Brexit 'would make Britain as insignificant as Guernsey'"
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-06-18/brexit-would-make-uk-as-insignificant-as-guernsey/
How not to win friends and influence people. 0 -
Ive got to say I feel quite dejected right now. Twenty years I have waited for Thursday.
These events wont change my vote - I suspect though it will put some off voting and cause others to vote to hold on to nurse.
Had it come before the postal votes it might have changed the result but I think the die is now cast.
What that murderer has done though or will have done is taken all the joy and fun out of what should have been a glorious day of celebration.
Rather than a VE day type celebration it is now going to be a November 11th type commemoration.
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Far too late.Fenman said:Remain need to address the immigrant issue over the next few days. Of course, they can never reassure the racists, but most people would be reassured by Cameron promising to solve the problems people associate with immigration. 1,000,000 for young people; flats and studios, not executive mansions. Abolish student fees for nurses, real training schemes and real apprenticeships.
He'll have to dump Osbourne to do it, but greater love.....0 -
Just say to the British peoplemurali_s said:
They have been hitting hard on immigration - a xenophobic and dig-whistling campaign that appeals to many peoples' guts. Very effective but leaves a disgusting taste in the mouth...Viceroy said:Leave need to hit hard on the immigration message for the final push.
Osborne mustn't be allowed to create the narrative on economics for the final stretch. Totally ignore him if need be and keep bringing the discussion back to immigration. A cross-party press conference to kick off campaigning again would be a good idea, with Boris/Stuart/Hoey/Gove fronting it and talking about "taking control" of our borders.
Hit on it hard.
The French Govt view us as a little island, a Guernsey, they tell us if we dare to vote LEAVE then they will punish us... So go on, meet the challenge, send the French and others the right message and dare to Vote LEAVE.
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Interesting given @Casino_Royale observations
http://www.cityam.com/243490/citys-secret-brexiteers-more-numerous-than-you0 -
What's wrong with being Guernsey - rich, peaceful, low taxes, few social problems, minds its own business, no warmongering.TCPoliticalBetting said:It gets worse the more you read.
"Leaving the EU would make Britain as insignificant as the island of Guernsey, France's economy minister Emmanuel Macron has said.
In an interview with Le Monde, Mr Macron said: "Leaving the EU would mean the 'Guernseyfication' of the UK, which would then be a little country on the world scale. It would isolate itself and become a trading post and arbitration place at Europe's border."
The French minister added that European Council would have to send "a very firm message and timetable" to the UK on the consequences of leaving the EU."
Then again I imagine that sounds horrible to power mad, meddling politicians.
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It doesn't matter what they say now no one believes anything they utter.Fenman said:Remain need to address the immigrant issue over the next few days. Of course, they can never reassure the racists, but most people would be reassured by Cameron promising to solve the problems people associate with immigration. 1,000,000 for young people; flats and studios, not executive mansions. Abolish student fees for nurses, real training schemes and real apprenticeships.
He'll have to dump Osbourne to do it, but greater love.....0 -
There was someone from remain saying that the "take back control" meme was racist, and suggested it led to the anger people like the killer feel. Complete nonsense ofcourse but it won't stop them trying to build this narrative of brexiter= xenophobe.Viceroy said:
No need. Keep it simple with the TAKE CONTROL background.Scrapheap_as_was said:
hopefully with 'that' poster behind them on every occasionViceroy said:Leave need to hit hard on the immigration message for the final push.
Osborne mustn't be allowed to create the narrative on economics for the final stretch. Totally ignore him if need be and keep bringing the discussion back to immigration. A cross-party press conference to kick off campaigning again would be a good idea, with Boris/Stuart/Hoey/Gove fronting it and talking about "taking control" of our borders.
Hit on it hard.
Link it to three points: Living standards, uncertainty (Turkey) and Control.0 -
Vote Leave
Like @StrongerIn we've cancelled rallies & street stalls today. We will still be handing out leaflets locally. Campaign restarts tomorrow.0 -
Well there are technically a tiny % of the voters that still trust Cameron although over 80% do not. As for Osborne the % is apparently an asterisk with just 2% regarding him as a brilliant natural strategic Leader, although some online responses from his staff and family may have rigged that result...NoEasyDay said:
It doesn't matter what they say now no one believes anything they utter.Fenman said:Remain need to address the immigrant issue over the next few days. Of course, they can never reassure the racists, but most people would be reassured by Cameron promising to solve the problems people associate with immigration. 1,000,000 for young people; flats and studios, not executive mansions. Abolish student fees for nurses, real training schemes and real apprenticeships.
He'll have to dump Osbourne to do it, but greater love.....
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I take your point, but life's never perfect. If we vote Leave on thursday, I'll be smiling for a week.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Ive got to say I feel quite dejected right now. Twenty years I have waited for Thursday.
These events wont change my vote - I suspect though it will put some off voting and cause others to vote to hold on to nurse.
Had it come before the postal votes it might have changed the result but I think the die is now cast.
What that murderer has done though or will have done is taken all the joy and fun out of what should have been a glorious day of celebration.
Rather than a VE day type celebration it is now going to be a November 11th type commemoration.
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"If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever."nunu said:
There was someone from remain saying that the "take back control" meme was racist, and suggested it led to the anger people like the killer feel. Complete nonsense ofcourse but it won't stop them trying to build this narrative of brexiter= xenophobe.Viceroy said:
No need. Keep it simple with the TAKE CONTROL background.Scrapheap_as_was said:
hopefully with 'that' poster behind them on every occasionViceroy said:Leave need to hit hard on the immigration message for the final push.
Osborne mustn't be allowed to create the narrative on economics for the final stretch. Totally ignore him if need be and keep bringing the discussion back to immigration. A cross-party press conference to kick off campaigning again would be a good idea, with Boris/Stuart/Hoey/Gove fronting it and talking about "taking control" of our borders.
Hit on it hard.
Link it to three points: Living standards, uncertainty (Turkey) and Control.
One chance to change that future. Everyone knows it.
That's what is at stake on Thursday.0 -
Corbyn and Gove due on Andrew Marr tomorrow morning0
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Corbyn? The sunday before the vote. Oh dear god. Send in Brown.marke09 said:Corbyn and Gove due on Andrew Marr tomorrow morning
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Oh I do hope they keep going with that line. It has done them absolutely no good so far. They're simply preaching to the converted. Why is the Remain campaign so off point? I really don't understand it.nunu said:
There was someone from remain saying that the "take back control" meme was racist, and suggested it led to the anger people like the killer feel. Complete nonsense ofcourse but it won't stop them trying to build this narrative of brexiter= xenophobe.Viceroy said:
No need. Keep it simple with the TAKE CONTROL background.Scrapheap_as_was said:
hopefully with 'that' poster behind them on every occasionViceroy said:Leave need to hit hard on the immigration message for the final push.
Osborne mustn't be allowed to create the narrative on economics for the final stretch. Totally ignore him if need be and keep bringing the discussion back to immigration. A cross-party press conference to kick off campaigning again would be a good idea, with Boris/Stuart/Hoey/Gove fronting it and talking about "taking control" of our borders.
Hit on it hard.
Link it to three points: Living standards, uncertainty (Turkey) and Control.0 -
Don't be an idiot. Public housing involves local authority waiting lists; of course some immigrants might benefit, but only if they had lived here and paid taxes for an average of 8-10 years.another_richard said:
And then young people from around the EU come to Britain for your flats and apprenticeships.Fenman said:Remain need to address the immigrant issue over the next few days. Of course, they can never reassure the racists, but most people would be reassured by Cameron promising to solve the problems people associate with immigration. 1,000,000 for young people; flats and studios, not executive mansions. Abolish student fees for nurses, real training schemes and real apprenticeships.
He'll have to dump Osbourne to do it, but greater love.....0 -
Leave's scaremongering about Turkey has been untruthful and dishonest.murali_s said:
They have been hitting hard on immigration - a xenophobic and dog-whistling campaign that appeals to many peoples' guts. Very effective but leaves a disgusting taste in the mouth...Viceroy said:Leave need to hit hard on the immigration message for the final push.
Osborne mustn't be allowed to create the narrative on economics for the final stretch. Totally ignore him if need be and keep bringing the discussion back to immigration. A cross-party press conference to kick off campaigning again would be a good idea, with Boris/Stuart/Hoey/Gove fronting it and talking about "taking control" of our borders.
Hit on it hard.
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The osbo result is definitely rigged, no way is he that popular.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Well there are technically a tiny % of the voters that still trust Cameron although over 80% do not. As for Osborne the % is apparently an asterisk with just 2% regarding him as a brilliant natural strategic Leader, although some online responses from his staff and family may have rigged that result...NoEasyDay said:
It doesn't matter what they say now no one believes anything they utter.Fenman said:Remain need to address the immigrant issue over the next few days. Of course, they can never reassure the racists, but most people would be reassured by Cameron promising to solve the problems people associate with immigration. 1,000,000 for young people; flats and studios, not executive mansions. Abolish student fees for nurses, real training schemes and real apprenticeships.
He'll have to dump Osbourne to do it, but greater love.....
I wonder if the punishment budget, was a shit or bust move from Osbourne. In the manner of an FA cup match when you are two nil down with two minutes to go. So you throw everyone forward, doesn't matter if you concede another, you are fucked anyway.
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Dear lord.Fenman said:
Don't be an idiot. Public housing involves local authority waiting lists; of course some immigrants might benefit, but only if they had lived here and paid taxes for an average of 8-10 years.another_richard said:
And then young people from around the EU come to Britain for your flats and apprenticeships.Fenman said:Remain need to address the immigrant issue over the next few days. Of course, they can never reassure the racists, but most people would be reassured by Cameron promising to solve the problems people associate with immigration. 1,000,000 for young people; flats and studios, not executive mansions. Abolish student fees for nurses, real training schemes and real apprenticeships.
He'll have to dump Osbourne to do it, but greater love.....
People are getting hundreds a week off the state to live in London at taxpayer expense providing they work 16 hours a week.0 -
Quite, they've gone beyond flogging a dead horse.John_M said:
Oh I do hope they keep going with that line. It has done them absolutely no good so far. They're simply preaching to the converted. Why is the Remain campaign so off point? I really don't understand it.nunu said:
There was someone from remain saying that the "take back control" meme was racist, and suggested it led to the anger people like the killer feel. Complete nonsense ofcourse but it won't stop them trying to build this narrative of brexiter= xenophobe.Viceroy said:
No need. Keep it simple with the TAKE CONTROL background.Scrapheap_as_was said:
hopefully with 'that' poster behind them on every occasionViceroy said:Leave need to hit hard on the immigration message for the final push.
Osborne mustn't be allowed to create the narrative on economics for the final stretch. Totally ignore him if need be and keep bringing the discussion back to immigration. A cross-party press conference to kick off campaigning again would be a good idea, with Boris/Stuart/Hoey/Gove fronting it and talking about "taking control" of our borders.
Hit on it hard.
Link it to three points: Living standards, uncertainty (Turkey) and Control.0 -
This could be the basis of a Cameron "Vow": One thing I am hearing loud and clear in this campaign is that the benefits of the EU haven't spread evenly. I am going to spend my remaining time in office addressing this problem. More nurses training places, apprenticeships, in work benefits etcFenman said:Remain need to address the immigrant issue over the next few days. Of course, they can never reassure the racists, but most people would be reassured by Cameron promising to solve the problems people associate with immigration. 1,000,000 for young people; flats and studios, not executive mansions. Abolish student fees for nurses, real training schemes and real apprenticeships.
He'll have to dump Osbourne to do it, but greater love.....
We'll do what it costs.
It gets the discussion off the evils of immigration and restates that the EU does have benefits.0 -
Leave drifting back towards 3 on BF0
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A suggestion for an article for TSE/OGH
How about a look at the referendum in Norway to join the EU in 1994? After a long period of heated debate, the "no" side won with 52.2 per cent of the vote, on a turnout of 88.6 per cent.
Andrew Neil said on air many weeks ago at the start of the campaign, that a type of project fear was run by the YES group backed by the main party of govt, the top companies, great and the good etc etc and the end result was the public mocking the claims and voting to stay out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_European_Union_membership_referendum,_19940 -
The largely universal narrative on economics has been that there will be a significant, if short term, negative effect. Leave should be honest and say that to "take back control" will have a negative effect but is a price worth paying - if they believe that.Viceroy said:Leave need to hit hard on the immigration message for the final push.
Osborne mustn't be allowed to create the narrative on economics for the final stretch. Totally ignore him if need be and keep bringing the discussion back to immigration. A cross-party press conference to kick off campaigning again would be a good idea, with Boris/Stuart/Hoey/Gove fronting it and talking about "taking control" of our borders.
Hit on it hard.0 -
Victory is now almost inevitable I think Leave will win by about 5%. But this is just the first battle in a long war, the first thing they will try is to put us into the EFTA where we still have to pay money to the EU and will still be expected to accept freedom of movement where almost anybody from Europe can come and live here whether we want or need them or not.El_Dave said:
I take your point, but life's never perfect. If we vote Leave on thursday, I'll be smiling for a week.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Ive got to say I feel quite dejected right now. Twenty years I have waited for Thursday.
These events wont change my vote - I suspect though it will put some off voting and cause others to vote to hold on to nurse.
Had it come before the postal votes it might have changed the result but I think the die is now cast.
What that murderer has done though or will have done is taken all the joy and fun out of what should have been a glorious day of celebration.
Rather than a VE day type celebration it is now going to be a November 11th type commemoration.
Toast the victory on Friday but bear in mind, things will get worse before they get better.0 -
Osborne and farage due on Peston on Sunday0
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Also if people come here with children and claim JSA they can get a house. Smh.chestnut said:
Dear lord.Fenman said:
Don't be an idiot. Public housing involves local authority waiting lists; of course some immigrants might benefit, but only if they had lived here and paid taxes for an average of 8-10 years.another_richard said:
And then young people from around the EU come to Britain for your flats and apprenticeships.Fenman said:Remain need to address the immigrant issue over the next few days. Of course, they can never reassure the racists, but most people would be reassured by Cameron promising to solve the problems people associate with immigration. 1,000,000 for young people; flats and studios, not executive mansions. Abolish student fees for nurses, real training schemes and real apprenticeships.
He'll have to dump Osbourne to do it, but greater love.....
People are getting hundreds a week off the state to live in London at taxpayer expense providing they work 16 hours a week.0 -
I think you've just shown how naïve you are.Fenman said:
Don't be an idiot. Public housing involves local authority waiting lists; of course some immigrants might benefit, but only if they had lived here and paid taxes for an average of 8-10 years.another_richard said:
And then young people from around the EU come to Britain for your flats and apprenticeships.Fenman said:Remain need to address the immigrant issue over the next few days. Of course, they can never reassure the racists, but most people would be reassured by Cameron promising to solve the problems people associate with immigration. 1,000,000 for young people; flats and studios, not executive mansions. Abolish student fees for nurses, real training schemes and real apprenticeships.
He'll have to dump Osbourne to do it, but greater love.....
In fact it wouldn't be only from the EU that young people would come for your flats and apprenticeships but from all around the world. And who would blame them - if you're a young person in a third world shithole you would have nothing to lose and potentially a great future to gain.
And when they are here what would you do - let them sleep in the street perhaps ? No, we'd then be told than we have a responsibility and so on and so on and so on.
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Star Trek First Contact on Channel 5 right now!
"Resistance against the EU is futile"
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excellent - the 2 most loved faces for the other side's opponents.marke09 said:Osborne and farage due on Peston on Sunday
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The universal narrative on joining the Euro was that if we did not join we would be isolated, on the fringes of Europe and an economic backwater. All complete tripe.perdix said:
The largely universal narrative on economics has been that there will be a significant, if short term, negative effect. Leave should be honest and say that to "take back control" will have a negative effect but is a price worth paying - if they believe that.Viceroy said:Leave need to hit hard on the immigration message for the final push.
Osborne mustn't be allowed to create the narrative on economics for the final stretch. Totally ignore him if need be and keep bringing the discussion back to immigration. A cross-party press conference to kick off campaigning again would be a good idea, with Boris/Stuart/Hoey/Gove fronting it and talking about "taking control" of our borders.
Hit on it hard.
This country will prosper because we're good at what we do. We're a great nation.0 -
The problem is e.u migrants are just as entitled to all those things as everyone else.FF43 said:
This could be the basis of a Cameron "Vow": One thing I am hearing loud and clear in this campaign is that the benefits of the EU haven't spread evenly. I am going to spend my remaining time in office addressing this problem. More nurses training places, apprenticeships, in work benefits etcFenman said:Remain need to address the immigrant issue over the next few days. Of course, they can never reassure the racists, but most people would be reassured by Cameron promising to solve the problems people associate with immigration. 1,000,000 for young people; flats and studios, not executive mansions. Abolish student fees for nurses, real training schemes and real apprenticeships.
He'll have to dump Osbourne to do it, but greater love.....
We'll do what it costs.
It gets the discussion off the evils of immigration and restates that the EU does have benefits.0 -
I watched/listened to both Lexit and Brexit YouTube movies this morning in full. Whatever the difference in tone/production values, both made the Leave case very well for their target audiences.glw said:
It's mostly run by people who benefit from the EU who barely even know people who don't.John_M said:Why is the Remain campaign so off point? I really don't understand it.
If you haven't watched Brexit the Movie, it's entertaining and well done. I learned a few things too.0 -
Roy 'Chubby' Brown?rottenborough said:
Corbyn? The sunday before the vote. Oh dear god. Send in Brown.marke09 said:Corbyn and Gove due on Andrew Marr tomorrow morning
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And its often 'work' for 16 hours a week.chestnut said:
Dear lord.Fenman said:
Don't be an idiot. Public housing involves local authority waiting lists; of course some immigrants might benefit, but only if they had lived here and paid taxes for an average of 8-10 years.another_richard said:
And then young people from around the EU come to Britain for your flats and apprenticeships.Fenman said:Remain need to address the immigrant issue over the next few days. Of course, they can never reassure the racists, but most people would be reassured by Cameron promising to solve the problems people associate with immigration. 1,000,000 for young people; flats and studios, not executive mansions. Abolish student fees for nurses, real training schemes and real apprenticeships.
He'll have to dump Osbourne to do it, but greater love.....
People are getting hundreds a week off the state to live in London at taxpayer expense providing they work 16 hours a week.
There's plenty of nominal work being done.0 -
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/738046783465652224Viceroy said:
The universal narrative on joining the Euro was that if we did not join we would be isolated, on the fringes of Europe and an economic backwater. All complete tripe.perdix said:
The largely universal narrative on economics has been that there will be a significant, if short term, negative effect. Leave should be honest and say that to "take back control" will have a negative effect but is a price worth paying - if they believe that.Viceroy said:Leave need to hit hard on the immigration message for the final push.
Osborne mustn't be allowed to create the narrative on economics for the final stretch. Totally ignore him if need be and keep bringing the discussion back to immigration. A cross-party press conference to kick off campaigning again would be a good idea, with Boris/Stuart/Hoey/Gove fronting it and talking about "taking control" of our borders.
Hit on it hard.
This country will prosper because we're good at what we do. We're a great nation.0 -
she certainly has...
Louise Mensch @LouiseMensch · 3m3 minutes ago
Yes, Remain want a million net immigrants a year or more #losttheplot
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Cameron refuses to say he would veto Turkey joining. He wants Turkey in the EU.perdix said:
Leave's scaremongering about Turkey has been untruthful and dishonest.murali_s said:
They have been hitting hard on immigration - a xenophobic and dog-whistling campaign that appeals to many peoples' guts. Very effective but leaves a disgusting taste in the mouth...Viceroy said:Leave need to hit hard on the immigration message for the final push.
Osborne mustn't be allowed to create the narrative on economics for the final stretch. Totally ignore him if need be and keep bringing the discussion back to immigration. A cross-party press conference to kick off campaigning again would be a good idea, with Boris/Stuart/Hoey/Gove fronting it and talking about "taking control" of our borders.
Hit on it hard.0 -
Yes you are right, it was a shit or bust move from Osborne and the geniuses around him probably said that at 2% he could not go any lower. Well they were probably wrong and are heading for a 0.00001% (4) support from the Osborne household at number 11NoEasyDay said:
The osbo result is definitely rigged, no way is he that popular.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Well there are technically a tiny % of the voters that still trust Cameron although over 80% do not. As for Osborne the % is apparently an asterisk with just 2% regarding him as a brilliant natural strategic Leader, although some online responses from his staff and family may have rigged that result...NoEasyDay said:
It doesn't matter what they say now no one believes anything they utter.Fenman said:Remain need to address the immigrant issue over the next few days. Of course, they can never reassure the racists, but most people would be reassured by Cameron promising to solve the problems people associate with immigration. 1,000,000 for young people; flats and studios, not executive mansions. Abolish student fees for nurses, real training schemes and real apprenticeships.
He'll have to dump Osbourne to do it, but greater love.....
I wonder if the punishment budget, was a shit or bust move from Osbourne. In the manner of an FA cup match when you are two nil down with two minutes to go. So you throw everyone forward, doesn't matter if you concede another, you are fucked anyway.
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Lord Hayward already predicted this.PlatoSaid said:Interesting given @Casino_Royale observations
http://www.cityam.com/243490/citys-secret-brexiteers-more-numerous-than-you0 -
The IMF are calling it as 1.9% growth this year, -0.8% next, 1.1% the following year. They have a number of scenarios that you can have a look at.perdix said:
The largely universal narrative on economics has been that there will be a significant, if short term, negative effect. Leave should be honest and say that to "take back control" will have a negative effect but is a price worth paying - if they believe that.Viceroy said:Leave need to hit hard on the immigration message for the final push.
Osborne mustn't be allowed to create the narrative on economics for the final stretch. Totally ignore him if need be and keep bringing the discussion back to immigration. A cross-party press conference to kick off campaigning again would be a good idea, with Boris/Stuart/Hoey/Gove fronting it and talking about "taking control" of our borders.
Hit on it hard.
I'm prepared to take their word for this year and next. I don't believe anyone knows what will happen after that - Brexit will be lost in a mush of all the other stresses and strains that the global economy is subject to.
Sadly, I understand that as a professional economist, it's generally frowned upon to shrug your shoulders and say "Sorry, haven't a scoobies."0 -
Norway was already out not already in as we areTCPoliticalBetting said:A suggestion for an article for TSE/OGH
How about a look at the referendum in Norway to join the EU in 1994? After a long period of heated debate, the "no" side won with 52.2 per cent of the vote, on a turnout of 88.6 per cent.
Andrew Neil said on air many weeks ago at the start of the campaign, that a type of project fear was run by the YES group backed by the main party of govt, the top companies, great and the good etc etc and the end result was the public mocking the claims and voting to stay out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_European_Union_membership_referendum,_19940 -
People have to pass a residence test which is basically a three month wait.nunu said:
Also if people come here with children and claim JSA they can get a house. Smh.chestnut said:
Dear lord.Fenman said:
Don't be an idiot. Public housing involves local authority waiting lists; of course some immigrants might benefit, but only if they had lived here and paid taxes for an average of 8-10 years.another_richard said:
And then young people from around the EU come to Britain for your flats and apprenticeships.Fenman said:Remain need to address the immigrant issue over the next few days. Of course, they can never reassure the racists, but most people would be reassured by Cameron promising to solve the problems people associate with immigration. 1,000,000 for young people; flats and studios, not executive mansions. Abolish student fees for nurses, real training schemes and real apprenticeships.
He'll have to dump Osbourne to do it, but greater love.....
People are getting hundreds a week off the state to live in London at taxpayer expense providing they work 16 hours a week.
Once they do this they are treated as though they were UK citizens unless they are specifically prohibited from having access to public money because of their entry status/visa.
Europeans are treated as Britons. Those with families are entitled to full range of benefits that a UK passport holder gets for 16 hours work.0 -
Leavers in the City don't tend to air their views as a rule. There are a lot more of us than people think, but the Remain side knows this which is why Canary Wharf and the Square Mile have both been blanketed by Remain.PlatoSaid said:Interesting given @Casino_Royale observations
http://www.cityam.com/243490/citys-secret-brexiteers-more-numerous-than-you0 -
And the EU was a lot less crap thenHYUFD said:
Norway was already out not already in as we areTCPoliticalBetting said:A suggestion for an article for TSE/OGH
How about a look at the referendum in Norway to join the EU in 1994? After a long period of heated debate, the "no" side won with 52.2 per cent of the vote, on a turnout of 88.6 per cent.
Andrew Neil said on air many weeks ago at the start of the campaign, that a type of project fear was run by the YES group backed by the main party of govt, the top companies, great and the good etc etc and the end result was the public mocking the claims and voting to stay out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_European_Union_membership_referendum,_19940 -
The Turkey narrative for leave is just so obvious, I really don't understand how remain failed to have well worked out response. So sloppy.NoEasyDay said:
0 -
-
Interesting "As Bernard Connolly, former European Commission economist and author of The Rotten Heart of Europe, has written: “there are three things the EU does not like about Anglo-Saxon financial markets, they are Anglo-Saxon, they are financial and they are markets!”"MaxPB said:
Leavers in the City don't tend to air their views as a rule. There are a lot more of us than people think, but the Remain side knows this which is why Canary Wharf and the Square Mile have both been blanketed by Remain.PlatoSaid said:Interesting given @Casino_Royale observations
http://www.cityam.com/243490/citys-secret-brexiteers-more-numerous-than-you
0 -
She has been downright embarrassing these past days.Scrapheap_as_was said:she certainly has...
Louise Mensch @LouiseMensch · 3m3 minutes ago
Yes, Remain want a million net immigrants a year or more #losttheplot
Ho hum. Great win for England in the rugby. Fantastic to watch.0 -
Yes, one wonders if Sir Lynton refused to run the In campaign because he doesn't support our EU membership. Osborne is running a 2010 core vote plus Guardianistas strategy, it may not be enough.NoEasyDay said:0 -
The French want us to leave, De Gaulle vetoed UK entry and an EU without the UK would shift towards the southern European nations and away from the north, leading to a more isolated Germany and a relatively more powerful FranceTCPoliticalBetting said:It gets worse the more you read.
"Leaving the EU would make Britain as insignificant as the island of Guernsey, France's economy minister Emmanuel Macron has said.
In an interview with Le Monde, Mr Macron said: "Leaving the EU would mean the 'Guernseyfication' of the UK, which would then be a little country on the world scale. It would isolate itself and become a trading post and arbitration place at Europe's border."
The French minister added that European Council would have to send "a very firm message and timetable" to the UK on the consequences of leaving the EU."0 -
True which was why I said "the referendum in Norway to join the EU"HYUFD said:
Norway was already out not already in as we areTCPoliticalBetting said:A suggestion for an article for TSE/OGH
How about a look at the referendum in Norway to join the EU in 1994? After a long period of heated debate, the "no" side won with 52.2 per cent of the vote, on a turnout of 88.6 per cent.
Andrew Neil said on air many weeks ago at the start of the campaign, that a type of project fear was run by the YES group backed by the main party of govt, the top companies, great and the good etc etc and the end result was the public mocking the claims and voting to stay out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_European_Union_membership_referendum,_1994
0 -
The Turkey embassy cables leaked last week to the STimes blew the bottom out of Cameron's credibility.SandyRentool said:
Cameron refuses to say he would veto Turkey joining. He wants Turkey in the EU.perdix said:
Leave's scaremongering about Turkey has been untruthful and dishonest.murali_s said:
They have been hitting hard on immigration - a xenophobic and dog-whistling campaign that appeals to many peoples' guts. Very effective but leaves a disgusting taste in the mouth...Viceroy said:Leave need to hit hard on the immigration message for the final push.
Osborne mustn't be allowed to create the narrative on economics for the final stretch. Totally ignore him if need be and keep bringing the discussion back to immigration. A cross-party press conference to kick off campaigning again would be a good idea, with Boris/Stuart/Hoey/Gove fronting it and talking about "taking control" of our borders.
Hit on it hard.
He's been caught lying too many times, as has Osborne - few still believe them.0 -
I guess Mr Macron comments represent a long standing belief in the French government, nothing to do with the referendum. I saw 20 or more years ago a BBC interview with an American in New York. The man made the statement - if you cosy up to rich people they will look after you and you will become rich too. Mr Macron has the same opinion about Germany.0
-
Gillian Duffy, my icon hero and guide to the referendum - for all this campaign.another_richard said:
0 -
Especially if Denmark and Sweden follow us out.HYUFD said:
The French want us to leave, De Gaulle vetoed UK entry and an EU without the UK would shift towards the southern European nations and away from the north, leading to a more isolated Germany and a relatively more powerful FranceTCPoliticalBetting said:It gets worse the more you read.
"Leaving the EU would make Britain as insignificant as the island of Guernsey, France's economy minister Emmanuel Macron has said.
In an interview with Le Monde, Mr Macron said: "Leaving the EU would mean the 'Guernseyfication' of the UK, which would then be a little country on the world scale. It would isolate itself and become a trading post and arbitration place at Europe's border."
The French minister added that European Council would have to send "a very firm message and timetable" to the UK on the consequences of leaving the EU."0 -
Count the number of decksSunil_Prasannan said:Star Trek First Contact on Channel 5 right now!
0 -
They don't have to work 16 hours to get a house as long as they are claiming JSA and are "vulnerable" I.e have children and have waited 3 months- even if they went back home in the meantime they can get a house. At least that's what Hounslow council did on the channel 5 documentary....... Anyway the point is there are no real limits, apart from the three month wait which many from ex- soviet countries will do .chestnut said:
People have to pass a residence test which is basically a three month wait.nunu said:
Also if people come here with children and claim JSA they can get a house. Smh.chestnut said:
Dear lord.Fenman said:
Don't be an idiot. Public housing involves local authority waiting lists; of course some immigrants might benefit, but only if they had lived here and paid taxes for an average of 8-10 years.another_richard said:
And then young people from around the EU come to Britain for your flats and apprenticeships.Fenman said:Remain need to address the immigrant issue over the next few days. Of course, they can never reassure the racists, but most people would be reassured by Cameron promising to solve the problems people associate with immigration. 1,000,000 for young people; flats and studios, not executive mansions. Abolish student fees for nurses, real training schemes and real apprenticeships.
He'll have to dump Osbourne to do it, but greater love.....
People are getting hundreds a week off the state to live in London at taxpayer expense providing they work 16 hours a week.
Once they do this they are treated as though they were UK citizens unless they are specifically prohibited from having access to public money because of their entry status/visa.
Europeans are treated as Britons. Those with families are entitled to full range of benefits that a UK passport holder gets for 16 hours work.0 -
Its the strategy Osborne expected to be running in 2010 - middle class metropolitans plus Conservative loyalists.MaxPB said:
Yes, one wonders if Sir Lynton refused to run the In campaign because he doesn't support our EU membership. Osborne is running a 2010 core vote plus Guardianistas strategy, it may not be enough.NoEasyDay said:
In the general elections the middle class leftists despised the Conservatives and they had to rely on working class votes to win.
The working class votes have now been written off as unnecessary.0 -
It is quite extraordinary the mess their Turkish position is in. That does not guarantee a win to LEAVE, but it does pile on the reasons why voters do not trust the pair. A lack of joined up policy planning.PlatoSaid said:
The Turkey embassy cables leaked last week to the STimes blew the bottom out of Cameron's credibility.SandyRentool said:
Cameron refuses to say he would veto Turkey joining. He wants Turkey in the EU.perdix said:
Leave's scaremongering about Turkey has been untruthful and dishonest.murali_s said:
They have been hitting hard on immigration - a xenophobic and dog-whistling campaign that appeals to many peoples' guts. Very effective but leaves a disgusting taste in the mouth...Viceroy said:Leave need to hit hard on the immigration message for the final push.
Osborne mustn't be allowed to create the narrative on economics for the final stretch. Totally ignore him if need be and keep bringing the discussion back to immigration. A cross-party press conference to kick off campaigning again would be a good idea, with Boris/Stuart/Hoey/Gove fronting it and talking about "taking control" of our borders.
Hit on it hard.
He's been caught lying too many times, as has Osborne - few still believe them.
0 -
You can just see him say there has not been ENOUGH immigration.SandyRentool said:
Roy 'Chubby' Brown?rottenborough said:
Corbyn? The sunday before the vote. Oh dear god. Send in Brown.marke09 said:Corbyn and Gove due on Andrew Marr tomorrow morning
0 -
Perhaps more salient would be the Ireland 2008 referendum (aka Lisbon I). My longstanding prediction of LEAVE55/REMAIN45 took some inspiration from that.TCPoliticalBetting said:A suggestion for an article for TSE/OGH
How about a look at the referendum in Norway to join the EU in 1994? After a long period of heated debate, the "no" side won with 52.2 per cent of the vote, on a turnout of 88.6 per cent.
Andrew Neil said on air many weeks ago at the start of the campaign, that a type of project fear was run by the YES group backed by the main party of govt, the top companies, great and the good etc etc and the end result was the public mocking the claims and voting to stay out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_European_Union_membership_referendum,_19940 -
If so they should be nice and just say good bye, "will of the people etc".HYUFD said:
The French want us to leave, De Gaulle vetoed UK entry and an EU without the UK would shift towards the southern European nations and away from the north, leading to a more isolated Germany and a relatively more powerful FranceTCPoliticalBetting said:It gets worse the more you read.
"Leaving the EU would make Britain as insignificant as the island of Guernsey, France's economy minister Emmanuel Macron has said.
In an interview with Le Monde, Mr Macron said: "Leaving the EU would mean the 'Guernseyfication' of the UK, which would then be a little country on the world scale. It would isolate itself and become a trading post and arbitration place at Europe's border."
The French minister added that European Council would have to send "a very firm message and timetable" to the UK on the consequences of leaving the EU."
0 -
It's one of those difficult things to refute, as Turkey is officially going through the accession process. It's a thing. You can recite the mantra (as I've done) of Erdogan, Cyprus, France, Germany etc as being the reasons why it's not going to happen. However, the official position of HMG is that it supports Turkish accession to the EU.NoEasyDay said:
The Turkey narrative for leave is just so obvious, I really don't understand how remain failed to have well worked out response. So sloppy.NoEasyDay said:
I think the Leave leaflet is wholly disingenuous. But it's still hard to refute.
I'm with Mr Tyndall; both campaigns have been poor (Remain being worse by a country mile though), and I'm not even talking about Farage's odious efforts on the sidelines.0 -
Business for Britain and City for Britain have been very active from about 2 years agoMaxPB said:
Leavers in the City don't tend to air their views as a rule. There are a lot more of us than people think, but the Remain side knows this which is why Canary Wharf and the Square Mile have both been blanketed by Remain.PlatoSaid said:Interesting given @Casino_Royale observations
http://www.cityam.com/243490/citys-secret-brexiteers-more-numerous-than-you0 -
chestnut - it isn't really true - if you lose a job in Doncaster you won't get housing benefit if you try for a job in London and need a room - but you will if you come from the EU. In fact Doncastor council will claim your home there is your main residence and you will continue paying full council tax even if you never live there again. If you are unlucky the Doncaster home will be classed as a holiday home.0
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I briefly listened to BBC1 this morning. Four discussing the EU Referendum and a microcosm of the problem.
The Leaver saying you don't listen to the people with concerns about Leave, you just label them racists and shut down the conversation. The Remainers cutting in and patiently explaining that immigrants pay for themselves so there's no need for a conversation.
The Leaver responding with something along the lines of "There's pressure on schools and the NHS - do you actually use state schools and the NHS? "
The Remainers interrupting as if they were talking to an idiot - "The immigrants pay more than they take out so there's no problem."
To be fair, the French Remainer did once say "Well, spend more then." The other Remainer just sneered. But the Frenchman was totally bemused by the suggestion that anyone would not approve of open borders. "It's part of the deal."
Everyone talking and no one listening.
The clever and the smart thinking that even discussing immigration concerns with racists is demeaning. So they don't. That's the way to win minds.
Edit: And lose referenda
.
0 -
If we're painting with broad strokes, Germany needs the UK. France absolutely does not. We're Cinderella to their Ugly SisterHYUFD said:
The French want us to leave, De Gaulle vetoed UK entry and an EU without the UK would shift towards the southern European nations and away from the north, leading to a more isolated Germany and a relatively more powerful FranceTCPoliticalBetting said:It gets worse the more you read.
"Leaving the EU would make Britain as insignificant as the island of Guernsey, France's economy minister Emmanuel Macron has said.
In an interview with Le Monde, Mr Macron said: "Leaving the EU would mean the 'Guernseyfication' of the UK, which would then be a little country on the world scale. It would isolate itself and become a trading post and arbitration place at Europe's border."
The French minister added that European Council would have to send "a very firm message and timetable" to the UK on the consequences of leaving the EU."
. It would be quite the coup de main for them if the UK left. It's probably the only thing that makes me pause for thought. 0 -
Can I have a nominal job? I'm fed up of my real ones...another_richard said:And its often 'work' for 16 hours a week.
There's plenty of nominal work being done.
0 -
They want us out but they would try and screw us too, a weak UK and an isolated Germany is France's ideal foreign policy position in Europe, that was why France was at its most powerful under Louis XIV when England was in the midst of a civil war and its aftermath and Germany was split up into isolated statesTCPoliticalBetting said:
If so they should be nice and just say good bye, "will of the people etc".HYUFD said:
The French want us to leave, De Gaulle vetoed UK entry and an EU without the UK would shift towards the southern European nations and away from the north, leading to a more isolated Germany and a relatively more powerful FranceTCPoliticalBetting said:It gets worse the more you read.
"Leaving the EU would make Britain as insignificant as the island of Guernsey, France's economy minister Emmanuel Macron has said.
In an interview with Le Monde, Mr Macron said: "Leaving the EU would mean the 'Guernseyfication' of the UK, which would then be a little country on the world scale. It would isolate itself and become a trading post and arbitration place at Europe's border."
The French minister added that European Council would have to send "a very firm message and timetable" to the UK on the consequences of leaving the EU."0 -
The Turkey line from leave is not totally disegenuos, Erdogan could drop dead tommorow and a centrist secular government be elected weeks later. Then its really on.John_M said:
It's one of those difficult things to refute, as Turkey is officially going through the accession process. It's a thing. You can recite the mantra (as I've done) of Erdogan, Cyprus, France, Germany etc as being the reasons why it's not going to happen. However, the official position of HMG is that it supports Turkish accession to the EU.NoEasyDay said:
The Turkey narrative for leave is just so obvious, I really don't understand how remain failed to have well worked out response. So sloppy.NoEasyDay said:
I think the Leave leaflet is wholly disingenuous. But it's still hard to refute.
I'm with Mr Tyndall; both campaigns have been poor (Remain being worse by a country mile though), and I'm not even talking about Farage's odious efforts on the sidelines.0 -
Germany wants us to remain because we provide balance, France wants us to leave because we provide balance. And the EU as a whole worries about an unraveling, even if they won't be too sad to see the troublemakers leave.John_M said:If we're painting with broad strokes, Germany needs the UK. France absolutely does not. We're Cinderella to their Ugly Sister
. It would be quite the coup de main for them if the UK left. It's probably the only thing that makes me pause for thought.
0 -
Letters already doing the rounds trying to "shore up" Cameron's position;
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/opinion/1302272/boris-johnson-backs-david-cameron-to-stay-on-as-pm-no-matter-who-wins-referendum/
Does he think he's lost the referendum?0 -
The screen shots of the British Embassy website in Turkey says it's working on Turkish accession. It's impossible to deny it. And then we get leaked cables talking of basically hushing it up until after the 23rd.John_M said:
It's one of those difficult things to refute, as Turkey is officially going through the accession process. It's a thing. You can recite the mantra (as I've done) of Erdogan, Cyprus, France, Germany etc as being the reasons why it's not going to happen. However, the official position of HMG is that it supports Turkish accession to the EU.NoEasyDay said:
The Turkey narrative for leave is just so obvious, I really don't understand how remain failed to have well worked out response. So sloppy.NoEasyDay said:
I think the Leave leaflet is wholly disingenuous. But it's still hard to refute.
I'm with Mr Tyndall; both campaigns have been poor (Remain being worse by a country mile though), and I'm not even talking about Farage's odious efforts on the sidelines.
It's toxic. It's like denying you want a divorce after you've been caught leaving the lawyer's office.0 -
But isn't it the case that the very things that make Turkey unattractive to many people as a member of the EU are also the very things that prevent them from joining? There is no reason in principle why any country should not join an organisation. It is the things we don't like bout Turkey that prevent them from joining and they can only join if those things go away.NoEasyDay said:
The Turkey line from leave is not totally disegenuos, Erdogan could drop dead tommorow and a centrist secular government be elected weeks later. Then its really on.John_M said:
It's one of those difficult things to refute, as Turkey is officially going through the accession process. It's a thing. You can recite the mantra (as I've done) of Erdogan, Cyprus, France, Germany etc as being the reasons why it's not going to happen. However, the official position of HMG is that it supports Turkish accession to the EU.NoEasyDay said:
The Turkey narrative for leave is just so obvious, I really don't understand how remain failed to have well worked out response. So sloppy.NoEasyDay said:
I think the Leave leaflet is wholly disingenuous. But it's still hard to refute.
I'm with Mr Tyndall; both campaigns have been poor (Remain being worse by a country mile though), and I'm not even talking about Farage's odious efforts on the sidelines.0 -
The Leave argument assumes is zero sum. If there's a fixed account of wealth, the fewer people sharing in it the more each person gets. According to polls, most people believe the EU benefits the economy but they don't see the benefits themselves. This argument is about fairness and it sets Remain apart from the unreconstructed capitalists that make up most of the Leave team.nunu said:
The problem is e.u migrants are just as entitled to all those things as everyone else.FF43 said:
This could be the basis of a Cameron "Vow": One thing I am hearing loud and clear in this campaign is that the benefits of the EU haven't spread evenly. I am going to spend my remaining time in office addressing this problem. More nurses training places, apprenticeships, in work benefits etcFenman said:Remain need to address the immigrant issue over the next few days. Of course, they can never reassure the racists, but most people would be reassured by Cameron promising to solve the problems people associate with immigration. 1,000,000 for young people; flats and studios, not executive mansions. Abolish student fees for nurses, real training schemes and real apprenticeships.
He'll have to dump Osbourne to do it, but greater love.....
We'll do what it costs.
It gets the discussion off the evils of immigration and restates that the EU does have benefits.
They don't have a lot of time to get this argument out though.0 -
They will he made himself intentionally homeless. Same with E.U migrants but they normally come with children so u can't just put them on the streets.Leaving the e.u won't completely change that but we will have a points based system.PAW said:chestnut - it isn't really true - if you lose a job in Doncaster you won't get housing benefit if you try for a job in London and need a room - but you will if you come from the EU. In fact Doncastor council will claim your home there is your main residence and you will continue paying full council tax even if you never live there again. If you are unlucky the Doncaster home will be classed as a holiday home.
The people from eastern Europe are very poor and I would do the same but resources are always limited whereas E.U migration isn't.0 -
I think Turkey will join one day - as I wrote yesterday, it makes strategic sense (it is a NATO member after all).NoEasyDay said:
The Turkey line from leave is not totally disegenuos, Erdogan could drop dead tommorow and a centrist secular government be elected weeks later. Then its really on.John_M said:
It's one of those difficult things to refute, as Turkey is officially going through the accession process. It's a thing. You can recite the mantra (as I've done) of Erdogan, Cyprus, France, Germany etc as being the reasons why it's not going to happen. However, the official position of HMG is that it supports Turkish accession to the EU.NoEasyDay said:
The Turkey narrative for leave is just so obvious, I really don't understand how remain failed to have well worked out response. So sloppy.NoEasyDay said:
I think the Leave leaflet is wholly disingenuous. But it's still hard to refute.
I'm with Mr Tyndall; both campaigns have been poor (Remain being worse by a country mile though), and I'm not even talking about Farage's odious efforts on the sidelines.
Even under your scenario, it would take a long time. Cyprus is a tiddler & debtor to boot so it'll do as it's told. France and Germany? Not so much. There's also the small matter of the accession criteria themselves.
If we're taking a forty year horizon for this referendum, I think it's a minor concern. I still think it'll be 15-20 years at the fastest. I may be wrong, it has been known. 0 -
Unfortunately I agree with this. I have said repeatedly that REMAIN's approach of stacking experts and ignoring people's concerns (migration, NHS et al) was methodologically flawed.CD13 said:
The clever and the smart thinking that even discussing immigration concerns with racists is demeaning. So they don't. That's the way to win minds.
Edit: And lose referenda
0 -
I think it might be better if Cameron had said not in our lifetimes instead of the ridiculous "year 3000" people are not stupid.John_M said:
It's one of those difficult things to refute, as Turkey is officially going through the accession process. It's a thing. You can recite the mantra (as I've done) of Erdogan, Cyprus, France, Germany etc as being the reasons why it's not going to happen. However, the official position of HMG is that it supports Turkish accession to the EU.NoEasyDay said:
The Turkey narrative for leave is just so obvious, I really don't understand how remain failed to have well worked out response. So sloppy.NoEasyDay said:
I think the Leave leaflet is wholly disingenuous. But it's still hard to refute.
I'm with Mr Tyndall; both campaigns have been poor (Remain being worse by a country mile though), and I'm not even talking about Farage's odious efforts on the sidelines.0 -
Interesting. This does tie in with a conversation I had with someone earlier in the week.MaxPB said:
Leavers in the City don't tend to air their views as a rule. There are a lot more of us than people think, but the Remain side knows this which is why Canary Wharf and the Square Mile have both been blanketed by Remain.PlatoSaid said:Interesting given @Casino_Royale observations
http://www.cityam.com/243490/citys-secret-brexiteers-more-numerous-than-you
0 -
Exactly look at Ealing central and Hempstead vs. Southampton.another_richard said:
Its the strategy Osborne expected to be running in 2010 - middle class metropolitans plus Conservative loyalists.MaxPB said:
Yes, one wonders if Sir Lynton refused to run the In campaign because he doesn't support our EU membership. Osborne is running a 2010 core vote plus Guardianistas strategy, it may not be enough.NoEasyDay said:
In the general elections the middle class leftists despised the Conservatives and they had to rely on working class votes to win.
The working class votes have now been written off as unnecessary.0 -
Leavers are so inured to insults, we shrug them off with a 'there you go again'. How many shy Leavers/Remainers are out there? Who knows. The peer group pressure is enormous.CD13 said:I briefly listened to BBC1 this morning. Four discussing the EU Referendum and a microcosm of the problem.
The Leaver saying you don't listen to the people with concerns about Leave, you just label them racists and shut down the conversation. The Remainers cutting in and patiently explaining that immigrants pay for themselves so there's no need for a conversation.
The Leaver responding with something along the lines of "There's pressure on schools and the NHS - do you actually use state schools and the NHS? "
The Remainers interrupting as if they were talking to an idiot - "The immigrants pay more than they take out so there's no problem."
To be fair, the French Remainer did once say "Well, spend more then." The other Remainer just sneered. But the Frenchman was totally bemused by the suggestion that anyone would not approve of open borders. "It's part of the deal."
Everyone talking and no one listening.
The clever and the smart thinking that even discussing immigration concerns with racists is demeaning. So they don't. That's the way to win minds.
Edit: And lose referenda
.0 -
I'd make every member of Remain's team watch John Mann's videos. Then they would know what to do.viewcode said:
Unfortunately I agree with this. I have said repeatedly that REMAIN's approach of stacking experts and ignoring people's concerns (migration, NHS et al) was methodologically flawed.CD13 said:
The clever and the smart thinking that even discussing immigration concerns with racists is demeaning. So they don't. That's the way to win minds.
Edit: And lose referenda
It's a bit like recessions. No one welcomes them, but they're very personal. I've been badly affected by two, oblivious to two others. Economics is irrelevant.
It's no good telling someone GDP per capita is boosted by immigration if they can't get a doctor's appointment, their kids are struggling at school because the teachers are having to deal with a lot of other kids with English as a 2nd language, when every job is at minimum wage because labour is so plentiful and they see others leapfrog the social housing queues and get easy access to welfare.
It's two countries divided by a common language.0 -
Obviously Johnson thinks he's won - he's pitching as being loyal so Remainers can come together under a Leaver leader, knowing Cameron will announce himself when he goes, and he doesn't have to call on the man to go. It also subtly criticises Cameron with the talk of being confident of getting three figures to sign the letter, knowing that that does not sound great, since one would hope a leader with 330 MPs could get at least 100 to sign it.GIN1138 said:Letters already doing the rounds trying to "shore up" Cameron's position;
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/opinion/1302272/boris-johnson-backs-david-cameron-to-stay-on-as-pm-no-matter-who-wins-referendum/
Does he think he's lost the referendum?0 -
I agree.John_M said:
I think Turkey will join one day - as I wrote yesterday, it makes strategic sense (it is a NATO member after all).NoEasyDay said:
The Turkey line from leave is not totally disegenuos, Erdogan could drop dead tommorow and a centrist secular government be elected weeks later. Then its really on.John_M said:
It's one of those difficult things to refute, as Turkey is officially going through the accession process. It's a thing. You can recite the mantra (as I've done) of Erdogan, Cyprus, France, Germany etc as being the reasons why it's not going to happen. However, the official position of HMG is that it supports Turkish accession to the EU.NoEasyDay said:
The Turkey narrative for leave is just so obvious, I really don't understand how remain failed to have well worked out response. So sloppy.NoEasyDay said:
I think the Leave leaflet is wholly disingenuous. But it's still hard to refute.
I'm with Mr Tyndall; both campaigns have been poor (Remain being worse by a country mile though), and I'm not even talking about Farage's odious efforts on the sidelines.
Even under your scenario, it would take a long time. Cyprus is a tiddler & debtor to boot so it'll do as it's told. France and Germany? Not so much. There's also the small matter of the accession criteria themselves.
If we're taking a forty year horizon for this referendum, I think it's a minor concern. I still think it'll be 15-20 years at the fastest. I may be wrong, it has been known.0
