The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time. Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups. The counsellor who spoke to him for about 15 minutes on Wednesday said she realised he was in 'some sort of crisis' and there appeared to be a 'real problem'."
The Mail's sudden interest in mental health is commendable.....when many other papers led with a political angle......well, it was a politician who died.....
The contrast with their front pages when Lee Rigby was murdered by someone with mental health problems, is erm striking.
Mr. CD13, must disagree. Genghis Khan crushed his opponents. Cameron and Osborne will either scrape a victory that should've been easy, or actually lose.
Mr. Timmo, that's shocking incompetence and complacency by Osborne/the Civil Service.
On what basis do Leavers argue that a victory "should have been easy"?
Presumably not the arguments all being in favour of Remain? It can't be the popular press because they are all favouring Leave. It presumably can't be the fact that expert opinion is all on their side, because Leave dismiss expert opinion. It can't be the ability to use the machinery of government because doing that is apparently a misuse of power.
So other than the polls favouring Remain before the referendum starts, i'm not sure what the basis of the victory being "easy" were based?
The polls and establishment favouring Remain are mammoth factors.
As for the arguments favouring Remain I've yet to hear a single argument favouring Remain from Cameron and co. I've heard a lot of arguments against Leave but if you're not easily afraid they can be water off a ducks back. I've heard Leave make arguments against Remaining and in favour of Leaving.
Remain have fought this campaign with one hand tied behind their back. Forget the risks to Leaving as not everyone is driven by fear. Where is the positive argument FOR remaining?
Even Corbyn has tried to make one! Though it won't appeal to anyone to the right of Karl Marx. Where is Cameron's positive argument?
Leave voters easier to contact/poll than Remain voters.
Morning all.
Just a thought - Leavers are probably more vocal in their support, whilst Remainers appear somewhat less enthusiastic, or ambivalent at best by comparison. This may give the impression when polled that Remainers are shy or uncommitted ie normal..!
In my line of work, Remainers are very vocal. Leavers keep quiet.
Indeed. I do wonder if in general leave is the more acceptable option, as it's easy to bash the eu than to defend it, but when people discuss the eu with me at work it is apparent they assume I could not possibly be even slightly for leave and how could anyone else.
Even a room of people complaining about the impact of eu regulations on a matter were none too subtle In disdain for leave and the 'manifesto' of Gove and co who would be running things. Granted, that was a room of teachers though. Not gove fans.
Apropos of nothing, if you want to go back in time a little to see a very real part of white working class culture in all its glory you could do a lot worse than go onto YouTube and watch old episodes of the Wherltappers and Shunters. It's a superb documentation of a communal world that is now almost completely gone and is not coming back. It's incredibly uplifting and also very sad. Clem Attlee on the wall, Bernard Manning doing the compering and no problem at all. Also some absolutely superb turns (as well as some real pony). Best of all is a special done by the Dubliners. It must have been at around the height of the IRA bombing campaign on the mainland when it wasn't nice to be Irish over here, but the mutual warmth and regard is spellbinding and wonderful to see. I have never heard a more beautiful version of Carrickfergus. It's another reminder that at all times what unites us is always greater than what divides us.
We have lost a hell of a lot over the last 40 years, we really have.
TSE, are you not mentioning the Qrious poll because:
a) they're not in the BPC b) you don't like it or c) you can't think of a pop pun?
Answers on a postcard please pretty please.
Serious q. though: why no mention?
Not being BPC isn't an issue, as Lord Ashcroft wasn't BPC.
The issue is, I'm yet to see any tables, and someone who knows their onions about opinion polls says Qrious usually poll via a mobile app, which doesn't produce a representative sample, and this is their first political poll, they normally do only consumer/brand polling.
So until I see tables and a methodology note, it's not worth commenting upon.
I cannot see why a mobile App should be any less representative than a landline? In fact since I know less than 10% of people who ever use a landline phone, let alone have one, I'd have thought mobiles are much more accurate? Everyone has one, even my 84 yr old mum.
Because not everyone can afford a smart phone, some don't need one.
It also skews against those who live in poor mobile signal areas, making landlines essential.
And if you think those are tables, then you really should stop commenting upon opinion polls.
I have a mobile, which sits in the glovebox of my car, unused. That's partly because I spent years of my commercial life shackled to the fecking thing so "Freeeeeedooooom!" and also because I live in the Wye Valley, which is apparently the place that mobile phone signals go to die.
TSE, are you not mentioning the Qrious poll because:
a) they're not in the BPC b) you don't like it or c) you can't think of a pop pun?
Answers on a postcard please pretty please.
Serious q. though: why no mention?
Not being BPC isn't an issue, as Lord Ashcroft wasn't BPC.
The issue is, I'm yet to see any tables, and someone who knows their onions about opinion polls says Qrious usually poll via a mobile app, which doesn't produce a representative sample, and this is their first political poll, they normally do only consumer/brand polling.
So until I see tables and a methodology note, it's not worth commenting upon.
I cannot see why a mobile App should be any less representative than a landline? In fact since I know less than 10% of people who ever use a landline phone, let alone have one, I'd have thought mobiles are much more accurate? Everyone has one, even my 84 yr old mum.
Because not everyone can afford a smart phone, some don't need one.
It also skews against those who live in poor mobile signal areas, making landlines essential.
And if you think those are tables, then you really should stop commenting upon opinion polls.
I said sort-of-tables and when might you stop snapping at me? Let bygones be bygones perhaps now?
You're slightly contradicting yourself by the way. If we're talking about smartphone Apps as opposed to mobile telephones they they may be using wifi rather than 3G so signal isn't particularly relevant. I need a much more convincing argument that mobiles and tablets aren't the future of polling.
All this talk about polls why not just wait until Friday about 5.00am and the result will be there for all to see, though as a betting site I do see some value in polls but goodness knows why after GE2015
All this talk about polls why not just wait until Friday about 5.00am and the result will be there for all to see, though as a betting site I do see some value in polls but goodness knows why after GE2015
I believe the free speech claim probably arises from a thread the other day - it was post about individualism of the U.K. Amidst the European demos and what about our attitude and traditions made us perceive ourselves as different and even better, and free speech along with some other bits was included in parentheses) and which you felt was a little out of date.
I'd have to go back and check, and you can no doubt correct, but my impression had been you were saying there were and to a limited extent are some things that set us apart historically, but those are a little out of date now, ie there is more that we have in common, not that those listed things were out of date ?
Thsanks, kle. Yes, that's my recollection - I was basically saying that the belief in British exceptionalism - we are civilised, everyone else is a bit backward - was out of date, not that free speech was.
TSE, are you not mentioning the Qrious poll because:
a) they're not in the BPC b) you don't like it or c) you can't think of a pop pun?
Answers on a postcard please pretty please.
Serious q. though: why no mention?
Not being BPC isn't an issue, as Lord Ashcroft wasn't BPC.
The issue is, I'm yet to see any tables, and someone who knows their onions about opinion polls says Qrious usually poll via a mobile app, which doesn't produce a representative sample, and this is their first political poll, they normally do only consumer/brand polling.
So until I see tables and a methodology note, it's not worth commenting upon.
I cannot see why a mobile App should be any less representative than a landline? In fact since I know less than 10% of people who ever use a landline phone, let alone have one, I'd have thought mobiles are much more accurate? Everyone has one, even my 84 yr old mum.
Because not everyone can afford a smart phone, some don't need one.
It also skews against those who live in poor mobile signal areas, making landlines essential.
And if you think those are tables, then you really should stop commenting upon opinion polls.
I have a mobile, which sits in the glovebox of my car, unused. That's partly because I spent years of my commercial life shackled to the fecking thing so "Freeeeeedooooom!" and also because I live in the Wye Valley, which is apparently the place that mobile phone signals go to die.
Good for you! Just wish I could replicate your example.
The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time. Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups. The counsellor who spoke to him for about 15 minutes on Wednesday said she realised he was in 'some sort of crisis' and there appeared to be a 'real problem'."
I'm not sure the EU *wants* to be inflexible. I just don't see how it *can* be flexible. Even QMV can't help it, with anything truly radical being subject to veto.
Watching a video about the EU the other day, one thing they mentioned was that the EU doesn't have a process for repealing laws.
I'm toying with the idea of getting one at some point (both my parents have tablets and mobiles, and my dad also has a laptop).
I did get a stunned look from the lady at the optician's when she asked me for my mobile number and I said I didn't have one.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Midwinter, the problem Cameron's had has been his incompetence in the campaign. He can be rather good at national unity. Instead he wibbled about Armageddon.
Hmmm. I'd argue that there was a fat chance of national unity with many in his own side spoiling for a fight, and that's before his opponents started. WRT the wibbling...point taken although I'd say plenty has been either taken out of context or simply been lied about. Although both sides are guilty of that I suppose.
Leave voters easier to contact/poll than Remain voters.
Morning all.
Just a thought - Leavers are probably more vocal in their support, whilst Remainers appear somewhat less enthusiastic, or ambivalent at best by comparison. This may give the impression when polled that Remainers are shy or uncommitted ie normal..!
In my line of work, Remainers are very vocal. Leavers keep quiet.
Indeed. I do wonder if in general leave is the more acceptable option, as it's easy to bash the eu than to defend it, but when people discuss the eu with me at work it is apparent they assume I could not possibly be even slightly for leave and how could anyone else.
Even a room of people complaining about the impact of eu regulations on a matter were none too subtle In disdain for leave and the 'manifesto' of Gove and co who would be running things. Granted, that was a room of teachers though. Not gove fans.
I agree that admitting to a group of teachers that you want to leave might be a faux pas. However, if you were a builder or a fisherman, perhaps it would be similarly awkward to admit to favouring remain?
All this talk about polls why not just wait until Friday about 5.00am and the result will be there for all to see, though as a betting site I do see some value in polls but goodness knows why after GE2015
Gives a hook for people to talk about.
And on which to bet which is, erm, the prime purpose of this site
I'm not sure the EU *wants* to be inflexible. I just don't see how it *can* be flexible. Even QMV can't help it, with anything truly radical being subject to veto.
Watching a video about the EU the other day, one thing they mentioned was that the EU doesn't have a process for repealing laws.
Wow. Okay, it's pretty rare for someone not to have a mobile these days. Do you have an iPad or tablet? Because the Qrious polling works on those, I believe.
Talking about mobiles and tablets, is there a mobile friendly version of this board? It's not exactly small screen friendly and I want to stay here more often....
Regarding phones, my venerable Nokia 6310i is still in use as our constituency party phone. Pretty sure it will outlive the apocalypse and still last for a week before the battery goes flat.
Leave voters easier to contact/poll than Remain voters.
Morning all.
Just a thought - Leavers are probably more vocal in their support, whilst Remainers appear somewhat less enthusiastic, or ambivalent at best by comparison. This may give the impression when polled that Remainers are shy or uncommitted ie normal..!
In my line of work, Remainers are very vocal. Leavers keep quiet.
Indeed. I do wonder if in general leave is the more acceptable option, as it's easy to bash the eu than to defend it, but when people discuss the eu with me at work it is apparent they assume I could not possibly be even slightly for leave and how could anyone else.
Even a room of people complaining about the impact of eu regulations on a matter were none too subtle In disdain for leave and the 'manifesto' of Gove and co who would be running things. Granted, that was a room of teachers though. Not gove fans.
I agree that admitting to a group of teachers that you want to leave might be a faux pas. However, if you were a builder or a fisherman, perhaps it would be similarly awkward to admit to favouring remain?
Oh I'm not in education, but that specific event was full of them. Public sector though, all seem for remain who admit it.
But yes, I think admitting you are for remain could be tricky I some professions.
Wow. Okay, it's pretty rare for someone not to have a mobile these days. Do you have an iPad or tablet? Because the Qrious polling works on those, I believe.
Talking about mobiles and tablets, is there a mobile friendly version of this board? It's not exactly small screen friendly and I want to stay here more often....
Regarding phones, my venerable Nokia 6310i is still in use as our constituency party phone. Pretty sure it will outlive the apocalypse and still last for a week before the battery goes flat.
Just done the same. Alleluia.
OGH really ought to publicise that there is a mobile friendly version at Vanillaforums.
It seems to use far less bandwidth as well when you refresh
Apropos of nothing, if you want to go back in time a little to see a very real part of white working class culture in all its glory you could do a lot worse than go onto YouTube and watch old episodes of the Wherltappers and Shunters. It's a superb documentation of a communal world that is now almost completely gone and is not coming back. It's incredibly uplifting and also very sad. Clem Attlee on the wall, Bernard Manning doing the compering and no problem at all. Also some absolutely superb turns (as well as some real pony). Best of all is a special done by the Dubliners. It must have been at around the height of the IRA bombing campaign on the mainland when it wasn't nice to be Irish over here, but the mutual warmth and regard is spellbinding and wonderful to see. I have never heard a more beautiful version of Carrickfergus. It's another reminder that at all times what unites us is always greater than what divides us.
We have lost a hell of a lot over the last 40 years, we really have.
One of Britain's strengths is that we don't readily get into hating whole countries - I remember the time too, and there wasn't much anti-Irish sentiment (though we shouldn't gloss over the "No Irish here" B&B stuff earlier), any more than people hated all Argintinians during the Falklands. Similarly I don't think that most people now have problems with individual Pakistanis, even if they're prejudiced or resentful or wary about them at the macro level. I'm not sure that culture in that sense has really got any worse.
Apropos of nothing, if you want to go back in time a little to see a very real part of white working class culture in all its glory you could do a lot worse than go onto YouTube and watch old episodes of the Wherltappers and Shunters. It's a superb documentation of a communal world that is now almost completely gone and is not coming back. It's incredibly uplifting and also very sad. Clem Attlee on the wall, Bernard Manning doing the compering and no problem at all. Also some absolutely superb turns (as well as some real pony). Best of all is a special done by the Dubliners. It must have been at around the height of the IRA bombing campaign on the mainland when it wasn't nice to be Irish over here, but the mutual warmth and regard is spellbinding and wonderful to see. I have never heard a more beautiful version of Carrickfergus. It's another reminder that at all times what unites us is always greater than what divides us.
We have lost a hell of a lot over the last 40 years, we really have.
I'm a little surprised we haven't heard more about the collapse of the british fishing industry during the course of the recent referendum debate.
The collapse of the mining industry seems to get aired at almost every general election, but the UK fishing industry, whose demise seems to be largely attributable to our joining the EU/Common Fisheries Policy, has not really featured.
TSE, are you not mentioning the Qrious poll because:
a) they're not in the BPC b) you don't like it or c) you can't think of a pop pun?
Answers on a postcard please pretty please.
Serious q. though: why no mention?
Not being BPC isn't an issue, as Lord Ashcroft wasn't BPC.
The issue is, I'm yet to see any tables, and someone who knows their onions about opinion polls says Qrious usually poll via a mobile app, which doesn't produce a representative sample, and this is their first political poll, they normally do only consumer/brand polling.
So until I see tables and a methodology note, it's not worth commenting upon.
I cannot see why a mobile App should be any less representative than a landline? In fact since I know less than 10% of people who ever use a landline phone, let alone have one, I'd have thought mobiles are much more accurate? Everyone has one, even my 84 yr old mum.
Because not everyone can afford a smart phone, some don't need one.
It also skews against those who live in poor mobile signal areas, making landlines essential.
And if you think those are tables, then you really should stop commenting upon opinion polls.
I said sort-of-tables and when might you stop snapping at me? Let bygones be bygones perhaps now?
You're slightly contradicting yourself by the way. If we're talking about smartphone Apps as opposed to mobile telephones they they may be using wifi rather than 3G so signal isn't particularly relevant. I need a much more convincing argument that mobiles and tablets aren't the future of polling.
Why should any normal person with a smartphone have an App on it from a polling company no one has ever heard of before your post today ?
Leave voters easier to contact/poll than Remain voters.
Morning all.
Just a thought - Leavers are probably more vocal in their support, whilst Remainers appear somewhat less enthusiastic, or ambivalent at best by comparison. This may give the impression when polled that Remainers are shy or uncommitted ie normal..!
In my line of work, Remainers are very vocal. Leavers keep quiet.
Mine too - I work in a university and you'd have to have a tin ear not know it's much, much safer for career progression to come out for remain.
Lot of silence going on all over the place. Even within families. My brother confided me he's voting out, but doesn't want his wife or mother to know who are both vocally remain. Just not worth the hassle. That must be a factor in phone polls I should think - both ways.
Mr. Estobar, I'd be stunned if that's anywhere near right.
If Leave win, I think it'll be narrow. That said, I would also have said I'd be stunned if the Conservatives got a majority in 2015.
Before the murder I predicted the result as:
Leave 58% Remain 41% Spoilt 1%
But I prefaced that with 'in the event of nothing significant.'
If the Qrious poll is right about the trend to Leave then I'll stick with the above.
This referendum has had more bizarro twists and turns than anything I can remember - and the black swan to end it all. No writer could pen this as a plot - except perhaps Jeffrey Archer.
SeanT came out with a wonderful political conspiracy plot yesterday. He did preface it by saying it would work as fiction rather than truth.
I dread anything tipping the scales either way at the last minute. I mean, god forbid, but can you imagine if there's a terrorist attack on Monday? Please no.
What it looks to me is more the dark arts of Mandelson in the ears of Osborne and Cameron. Spinning the tenuous link of the killer into an anti LEAVE advantage. We then have the cancellation of campaigning to enable Cameron, Corbyn etc "the establishment" to look stately and pontificate in the broadcast media with nice PR friendly pictures.... Almost re-establishing trust in the establishment at a time of apparent crisis. That is the real conspiracy. Something turned up and away the spinning goes. After all the NOTW was shut down based mainly on a mistaken untruth run in a left wing paper.
TSE, are you not mentioning the Qrious poll because:
a) they're not in the BPC b) you don't like it or c) you can't think of a pop pun?
Answers on a postcard please pretty please.
Serious q. though: why no mention?
Not being BPC isn't an issue, as Lord Ashcroft wasn't BPC.
The issue is, I'm yet to see any tables, and someone who knows their onions about opinion polls says Qrious usually poll via a mobile app, which doesn't produce a representative sample, and this is their first political poll, they normally do only consumer/brand polling.
So until I see tables and a methodology note, it's not worth commenting upon.
I cannot see why a mobile App should be any less representative than a landline? In fact since I know less than 10% of people who ever use a landline phone, let alone have one, I'd have thought mobiles are much more accurate? Everyone has one, even my 84 yr old mum.
Because not everyone can afford a smart phone, some don't need one.
It also skews against those who live in poor mobile signal areas, making landlines essential.
And if you think those are tables, then you really should stop commenting upon opinion polls.
I said sort-of-tables and when might you stop snapping at me? Let bygones be bygones perhaps now?
You're slightly contradicting yourself by the way. If we're talking about smartphone Apps as opposed to mobile telephones they they may be using wifi rather than 3G so signal isn't particularly relevant. I need a much more convincing argument that mobiles and tablets aren't the future of polling.
An app is just another phone of online polling, not a phone poll.
Leave voters easier to contact/poll than Remain voters.
Morning all.
Just a thought - Leavers are probably more vocal in their support, whilst Remainers appear somewhat less enthusiastic, or ambivalent at best by comparison. This may give the impression when polled that Remainers are shy or uncommitted ie normal..!
In my line of work, Remainers are very vocal. Leavers keep quiet.
Indeed. I do wonder if in general leave is the more acceptable option, as it's easy to bash the eu than to defend it, but when people discuss the eu with me at work it is apparent they assume I could not possibly be even slightly for leave and how could anyone else.
Even a room of people complaining about the impact of eu regulations on a matter were none too subtle In disdain for leave and the 'manifesto' of Gove and co who would be running things. Granted, that was a room of teachers though. Not gove fans.
I agree that admitting to a group of teachers that you want to leave might be a faux pas. However, if you were a builder or a fisherman, perhaps it would be similarly awkward to admit to favouring remain?
Oh I'm not in education, but that specific event was full of them. Public sector though, all seem for remain who admit it.
But yes, I think admitting you are for remain could be tricky I some professions.
The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time. Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups. The counsellor who spoke to him for about 15 minutes on Wednesday said she realised he was in 'some sort of crisis' and there appeared to be a 'real problem'."
Leave voters easier to contact/poll than Remain voters.
Morning all.
Just a thought - Leavers are probably more vocal in their support, whilst Remainers appear somewhat less enthusiastic, or ambivalent at best by comparison. This may give the impression when polled that Remainers are shy or uncommitted ie normal..!
In my line of work, Remainers are very vocal. Leavers keep quiet.
Indeed. I do wonder if in general leave is the more acceptable option, as it's easy to bash the eu than to defend it, but when people discuss the eu with me at work it is apparent they assume I could not possibly be even slightly for leave and how could anyone else.
Even a room of people complaining about the impact of eu regulations on a matter were none too subtle In disdain for leave and the 'manifesto' of Gove and co who would be running things. Granted, that was a room of teachers though. Not gove fans.
I agree that admitting to a group of teachers that you want to leave might be a faux pas. However, if you were a builder or a fisherman, perhaps it would be similarly awkward to admit to favouring remain?
Oh I'm not in education, but that specific event was full of them. Public sector though, all seem for remain who admit it.
But yes, I think admitting you are for remain could be tricky I some professions.
TSE, are you not mentioning the Qrious poll because:
a) they're not in the BPC b) you don't like it or c) you can't think of a pop pun?
Answers on a postcard please pretty please.
Serious q. though: why no mention?
Not being BPC isn't an issue, as Lord Ashcroft wasn't BPC.
The issue is, I'm yet to see any tables, and someone who knows their onions about opinion polls says Qrious usually poll via a mobile app, which doesn't produce a representative sample, and this is their first political poll, they normally do only consumer/brand polling.
So until I see tables and a methodology note, it's not worth commenting upon.
I cannot see why a mobile App should be any less representative than a landline? In fact since I know less than 10% of people who ever use a landline phone, let alone have one, I'd have thought mobiles are much more accurate? Everyone has one, even my 84 yr old mum.
Because not everyone can afford a smart phone, some don't need one.
It also skews against those who live in poor mobile signal areas, making landlines essential.
And if you think those are tables, then you really should stop commenting upon opinion polls.
I said sort-of-tables and when might you stop snapping at me? Let bygones be bygones perhaps now?
You're slightly contradicting yourself by the way. If we're talking about smartphone Apps as opposed to mobile telephones they they may be using wifi rather than 3G so signal isn't particularly relevant. I need a much more convincing argument that mobiles and tablets aren't the future of polling.
Why should any normal person with a smartphone have an App on it from a polling company no one has ever heard of before your post today ?
That's not really how these things work though, is it? By the same token, why should anyone answer a cold call landline? I know I wouldn't. They'd get very short shrift.
I need to see whether the Qrious polling is actually an App or just an online link. I think it may be the latter in fact although it's difficult to work out from their site.
On topic - Is the conclusion that leave voters are easier to contact just a function of when the fieldwork started?
10th June was a Friday, so presumably on the first call quite a few people were at work, hence those contacted likely to be proportionately more elderly and hence leavers.
Over the weekend (second calls - I assume were evening or on 11th/12th June), they caught more working age affluent people, i.e. disproportionately remainers and then on Monday-Wednesday(13th-15th), mopped up disproportionately more leavers as they were getting their representative sample.
If the fieldwork had started on the Wednesday, might it not have appeared that remainers were harder to contact as likely some of the people caught on the second call are only available at weekends?
Leave voters easier to contact/poll than Remain voters.
Morning all.
Just a thought - Leavers are probably more vocal in their support, whilst Remainers appear somewhat less enthusiastic, or ambivalent at best by comparison. This may give the impression when polled that Remainers are shy or uncommitted ie normal..!
In my line of work, Remainers are very vocal. Leavers keep quiet.
Mine too - I work in a university and you'd have to have a tin ear not know it's much, much safer for career progression to come out for remain.
Lot of silence going on all over the place. Even within families. My brother confided me he's voting out, but doesn't want his wife or mother to know who are both vocally remain. Just not worth the hassle. That must be a factor in phone polls I should think - both ways.
Which is why I think a mobile App may hit the sweet spot a lot, lot, better than either fixed home online polling or landline phones.
But we shall see. We shall see. Clearly either way there's a big headache right now for polling firms.
What will the likely reaction be in the EU to a small remain win? And please this is a factual question not a vague way of asking if you love/hate the EU.
Apropos of nothing, if you want to go back in time a little to see a very real part of white working class culture in all its glory you could do a lot worse than go onto YouTube and watch old episodes of the Wherltappers and Shunters. It's a superb documentation of a communal world that is now almost completely gone and is not coming back. It's incredibly uplifting and also very sad. Clem Attlee on the wall, Bernard Manning doing the compering and no problem at all. Also some absolutely superb turns (as well as some real pony). Best of all is a special done by the Dubliners. It must have been at around the height of the IRA bombing campaign on the mainland when it wasn't nice to be Irish over here, but the mutual warmth and regard is spellbinding and wonderful to see. I have never heard a more beautiful version of Carrickfergus. It's another reminder that at all times what unites us is always greater than what divides us.
We have lost a hell of a lot over the last 40 years, we really have.
One of Britain's strengths is that we don't readily get into hating whole countries - I remember the time too, and there wasn't much anti-Irish sentiment (though we shouldn't gloss over the "No Irish here" B&B stuff earlier), any more than people hated all Argintinians during the Falklands. Similarly I don't think that most people now have problems with individual Pakistanis, even if they're prejudiced or resentful or wary about them at the macro level. I'm not sure that culture in that sense has really got any worse.
I think it's probably got a lot better. What I am referring to is the loss of communalism. We are a far more individualistic culture than we were. That's good in some ways, but I also think it's had some real negatives. There's a joy in being part of something bigger that you identify with and feel a part of wholeheartedly. That, for me, was always a central part of working class culture - doing stuff together: football, pubs, the working men's clubs, trade unions, brass bands, educational societies, painting groups, and so on. It's almost entirely gone now.
Well so far the only argument I've heard as to why I should switch to Remain goes something like "Nigel Farage wants to leave. Nigel Farage is a racist. You don't want to vote like a racist do you? Everyone will think you are a racist if you do."
I'll buy that argument if I can substitute 'idiots' for 'everyone'. It's the sort of mentality you find in a playground. This country has had unprecedent levels of immigration over the last twenty years.
By and large, the indigenes have been friendly and welcoming. We haven't seen riots in the streets, lynch parties and whatnot. So I don't buy this image of a nation of raging xenephobes. People want to come here because they know the British are good, decent people. Those in love with symbols that think voting Leave will immediately portray the UK as 21st Nazi Germany need to get a grip.
The Internet does for commentary what Gresham's Law does for currencies. Rather than take a typical Leaver's view that immigration should be managed to suit the British, it's much easier to cut to some tattooed numbskull raving about getting rid of all the fookin' muslimics.
One more time for the hard of thinking. Guilt by association does not work. Please stop using it as an argument.
Thought id put this on the new thread as well as i wanted to emphasise that the treasury is in a state of chaos over Brexit according to someone i know who works there.
Anecdote Alert I was out with a mate who works high up in the treasury last night. They are preparing for brexit and evidently its chaos as Osbourne had instructed the department not to initiate the exit planning until Very late in the day. He also put £1000 on leave yesterday at 7/4
A related point is that the chaotic consequences of Brexit will be blamed on those warning against change rather than those promoting it.
What will the likely reaction be in the EU to a small remain win? And please this is a factual question not a vague way of asking if you love/hate the EU.
The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time. Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups. The counsellor who spoke to him for about 15 minutes on Wednesday said she realised he was in 'some sort of crisis' and there appeared to be a 'real problem'."
Actually I don't think that's fair. The Daily Mail have written a lot on mental health in recent years.
Nothing in the last 2 months - then its the angle they pursue over the death of an MP......
Well considering he checked in the day before with mental health problems I'd have thought that's called responsible journalism. I know you want to flog a far-right nasty-Leavers evil-racists line but there's clearly a mental health issue here either as well or instead of the other alleged links.
One of the most insidious aspects of this referendum is the way some people's bias is blinding them to objective truths. I include both sides in that.
You're also totally wrong about the Mail. They do masses on mental health every week.
What will the likely reaction be in the EU to a small remain win? And please this is a factual question not a vague way of asking if you love/hate the EU.
What do you mean by 'reaction in the EU'? The political reaction of the member states? The reaction of the bureaucracy to our decision, and the implications for the rest of the states?
On a purely factual basis, I imagine a small remain win would be met with measured statements applauding the decision, acknowledging that there are concerns in Europe but we must all come together to work them out, and that some things must change.
What will the likely reaction be in the EU to a small remain win? And please this is a factual question not a vague way of asking if you love/hate the EU.
It is a good question. I don’t know the answer.
However, the easiest thing for any large bureaucratic organisation is to do nothing. There is massive inertia in almost all big organisations.
A small remain win is more a problem for UK political parties. It is not a problem for the EU.
What will the likely reaction be in the EU to a small remain win? And please this is a factual question not a vague way of asking if you love/hate the EU.
What do you mean by 'reaction in the EU'? The political reaction of the member states? The reaction of the bureaucracy to our decision, and the implications for the rest of the states?
On a purely factual basis, I imagine a small remain win would be met with measured statements applauding the decision, acknowledging that there are concerns in Europe but we must all come together to work them out, and that some things must change.
Leavers who don't think that their campaign has been all about opposition to immigration must be scrunching their eyes so tightly that they're seeing stars. At the forefront of this campaign that they're not seeing is a series of posters which don't so much dog whistle as wolf whistle.
That is what you are voting for if you vote Leave. Don't fool yourself otherwise.
Apropos of nothing, if you want to go back in time a little to see a very real part of white working class culture in all its glory you could do a lot worse than go onto YouTube and watch old episodes of the Wherltappers and Shunters. It's a superb documentation of a communal world that is now almost completely gone and is not coming back. It's incredibly uplifting and also very sad. Clem Attlee on the wall, Bernard Manning doing the compering and no problem at all. Also some absolutely superb turns (as well as some real pony). Best of all is a special done by the Dubliners. It must have been at around the height of the IRA bombing campaign on the mainland when it wasn't nice to be Irish over here, but the mutual warmth and regard is spellbinding and wonderful to see. I have never heard a more beautiful version of Carrickfergus. It's another reminder that at all times what unites us is always greater than what divides us.
We have lost a hell of a lot over the last 40 years, we really have.
One of Britain's strengths is that we don't readily get into hating whole countries - I remember the time too, and there wasn't much anti-Irish sentiment (though we shouldn't gloss over the "No Irish here" B&B stuff earlier), any more than people hated all Argintinians during the Falklands. Similarly I don't think that most people now have problems with individual Pakistanis, even if they're prejudiced or resentful or wary about them at the macro level. I'm not sure that culture in that sense has really got any worse.
I think it's probably got a lot better. What I am referring to is the loss of communalism. We are a far more individualistic culture than we were. That's good in some ways, but I also think it's had some real negatives. There's a joy in being part of something bigger that you identify with and feel a part of wholeheartedly. That, for me, was always a central part of working class culture - doing stuff together: football, pubs, the working men's clubs, trade unions, brass bands, educational societies, painting groups, and so on. It's almost entirely gone now.
Has it? Or has it changed?
I note for instance that almost all of those you mentioned are male preserves. Where were the female clubs etc?
That isn't to say that sexism was a problem, more than now I think "with family" is how people want to spend a lot more of their spare time. If I go to a bar I tend to go with my wife, much more commonly than with my mates.
I see the IMF report has landed and seemingly sunk without trace. Perhaps because it is not predicting all the doom and gloom that the Treasury said would follow a Brexit.
Secondly a question. I know yesterday Michael Crick was reporting that Mair would be charged under terrorism offences but this morning it appears he has been charged with murder and other offences but none of them related to terrorism. Is that correct or have I misread the reports?
What will the likely reaction be in the EU to a small remain win? And please this is a factual question not a vague way of asking if you love/hate the EU.
- A return to business as usual (not a political point, it's an open secret that some initiatives have been paused due to perceived British sensitivities).
- A lot of grunt work to implement Cameron's agreement, including working it through the various parliaments.
The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time. Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups. The counsellor who spoke to him for about 15 minutes on Wednesday said she realised he was in 'some sort of crisis' and there appeared to be a 'real problem'."
Actually I don't think that's fair. The Daily Mail have written a lot on mental health in recent years.
Nothing in the last 2 months - then its the angle they pursue over the death of an MP......
You're also totally wrong about the Mail. They do masses on mental health every week.
Not on the front page.
When other papers are covering a political angle in the death of a politician, I think the word you are looking for is 'evasion' not 'responsible' journalism....but as you say, some people's bias is blinding them to objective truths...
The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time. Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups. The counsellor who spoke to him for about 15 minutes on Wednesday said she realised he was in 'some sort of crisis' and there appeared to be a 'real problem'."
Actually I don't think that's fair. The Daily Mail have written a lot on mental health in recent years.
Nothing in the last 2 months - then its the angle they pursue over the death of an MP......
Well considering he checked in the day before with mental health problems I'd have thought that's called responsible journalism. I know you want to flog a far-right nasty-Leavers evil-racists line but there's clearly a mental health issue here either as well or instead of the other alleged links.
One of the most insidious aspects of this referendum is the way some people's bias is blinding them to objective truths. I include both sides in that.
You're also totally wrong about the Mail. They do masses on mental health every week.
I did feel there was a 'Damn, Dacre has shot my fox' element to the reaction in certain quarters last night.
And Hitchens has been vainly pointing out for ages in the Mail that such killers from Lee Rigby to Paris to US school killers have a common thread of past or present Cannabis use and mental illness.
Leavers who don't think that their campaign has been all about opposition to immigration must be scrunching their eyes so tightly that they're seeing stars. At the forefront of this campaign that they're not seeing is a series of posters which don't so much dog whistle as wolf whistle.
That is what you are voting for if you vote Leave. Don't fool yourself otherwise.
Or they're seeing campaigning by those who are part of the official Leave campaign rather than just the ones you cherrypick.
Holding Leavers who believe in what Gove and Johnson (or Hoey and Gisella) have been promoting responsible for what Farage is doing makes about as much sense as holding Cameron responsible for Corbyn.
I'm going to smile if Qriously turns out to be the pioneer of more accurate sampling than the old fuddy-duddy methods that served us so well in GE2015. Just looking at their methodology link it's very interesting. They don't use 'an App.' They plug in via 50,000 other Apps replacing In-App Ads with questions. This is worth a quick look: http://www.qriously.com/our-method/
They also quality control the Apps.
Very interesting. Might be bollocks. Might not be.
I see the IMF report has landed and seemingly sunk without trace. Perhaps because it is not predicting all the doom and gloom that the Treasury said would follow a Brexit.
Secondly a question. I know yesterday Michael Crick was reporting that Mair would be charged under terrorism offences but this morning it appears he has been charged with murder and other offences but none of them related to terrorism. Is that correct or have I misread the reports?
Leavers who don't think that their campaign has been all about opposition to immigration must be scrunching their eyes so tightly that they're seeing stars. At the forefront of this campaign that they're not seeing is a series of posters which don't so much dog whistle as wolf whistle.
That is what you are voting for if you vote Leave. Don't fool yourself otherwise.
Or they're seeing campaigning by those who are part of the official Leave campaign rather than just the ones you cherrypick.
Holding Leavers who believe in what Gove and Johnson (or Hoey and Gisella) have been promoting responsible for what Farage is doing makes about as much sense as holding Cameron responsible for Corbyn.
I regard the "(76 million)" poster which Vote Leave promoted as pretty much as bad as "Breaking Point". Michael Gove is dancing to Nigel Farage's tune.
Leavers who don't think that their campaign has been all about opposition to immigration must be scrunching their eyes so tightly that they're seeing stars. At the forefront of this campaign that they're not seeing is a series of posters which don't so much dog whistle as wolf whistle.
That is what you are voting for if you vote Leave. Don't fool yourself otherwise.
Or they're seeing campaigning by those who are part of the official Leave campaign rather than just the ones you cherrypick.
Holding Leavers who believe in what Gove and Johnson (or Hoey and Gisella) have been promoting responsible for what Farage is doing makes about as much sense as holding Cameron responsible for Corbyn.
I regard the "(76 million)" poster which Vote Leave promoted as pretty much as bad as "Breaking Point". Michael Gove is dancing to Nigel Farage's tune.
The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time. Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups. The counsellor who spoke to him for about 15 minutes on Wednesday said she realised he was in 'some sort of crisis' and there appeared to be a 'real problem'."
Actually I don't think that's fair. The Daily Mail have written a lot on mental health in recent years.
Nothing in the last 2 months - then its the angle they pursue over the death of an MP......
You're also totally wrong about the Mail. They do masses on mental health every week.
Not on the front page.
When other papers are covering a political angle in the death of a politician, I think the word you are looking for is 'evasion' not 'responsible' journalism....but as you say, some people's bias is blinding them to objective truths...
Carlotta, nothing I ever say on the EU ref, ever, would persuade you not to disagree. So there's not a lot of point my trying.
Apropos of nothing, if you want to go back in time a little to see a very real part of white working class culture in all its glory you could do a lot worse than go onto YouTube and watch old episodes of the Wherltappers and Shunters. It's a superb documentation of a communal world that is now almost completely gone and is not coming back. It's incredibly uplifting and also very sad. Clem Attlee on the wall, Bernard Manning doing the compering and no problem at all. Also some absolutely superb turns (as well as some real pony). Best of all is a special done by the Dubliners. It must have been at around the height of the IRA bombing campaign on the mainland when it wasn't nice to be Irish over here, but the mutual warmth and regard is spellbinding and wonderful to see. I have never heard a more beautiful version of Carrickfergus. It's another reminder that at all times what unites us is always greater than what divides us.
We have lost a hell of a lot over the last 40 years, we really have.
One of Britain's strengths is that we don't readily get into hating whole countries - I remember the time too, and there wasn't much anti-Irish sentiment (though we shouldn't gloss over the "No Irish here" B&B stuff earlier), any more than people hated all Argintinians during the Falklands. Similarly I don't think that most people now have problems with individual Pakistanis, even if they're prejudiced or resentful or wary about them at the macro level. I'm not sure that culture in that sense has really got any worse.
I think it's probably got a lot better. What I am referring to is the loss of communalism. We are a far more individualistic culture than we were. That's good in some ways, but I also think it's had some real negatives. There's a joy in being part of something bigger that you identify with and feel a part of wholeheartedly. That, for me, was always a central part of working class culture - doing stuff together: football, pubs, the working men's clubs, trade unions, brass bands, educational societies, painting groups, and so on. It's almost entirely gone now.
In "mind the gap" and "the welfare state we're in" the impact of the Welfare State on non-state institutions (church, mutual societies etc) was mentioned.
Bonds need to be constantly renewed for them to hold.
Leavers who don't think that their campaign has been all about opposition to immigration must be scrunching their eyes so tightly that they're seeing stars. At the forefront of this campaign that they're not seeing is a series of posters which don't so much dog whistle as wolf whistle.
That is what you are voting for if you vote Leave. Don't fool yourself otherwise.
Or they're seeing campaigning by those who are part of the official Leave campaign rather than just the ones you cherrypick.
Holding Leavers who believe in what Gove and Johnson (or Hoey and Gisella) have been promoting responsible for what Farage is doing makes about as much sense as holding Cameron responsible for Corbyn.
I regard the "(76 million)" poster which Vote Leave promoted as pretty much as bad as "Breaking Point". Michael Gove is dancing to Nigel Farage's tune.
If Leave win, it will be on Nigel Farage's terms.
I guess you might have to start planning your new "Independence for London" party.
Leavers who don't think that their campaign has been all about opposition to immigration must be scrunching their eyes so tightly that they're seeing stars. At the forefront of this campaign that they're not seeing is a series of posters which don't so much dog whistle as wolf whistle.
That is what you are voting for if you vote Leave. Don't fool yourself otherwise.
Or they're seeing campaigning by those who are part of the official Leave campaign rather than just the ones you cherrypick.
Holding Leavers who believe in what Gove and Johnson (or Hoey and Gisella) have been promoting responsible for what Farage is doing makes about as much sense as holding Cameron responsible for Corbyn.
I regard the "(76 million)" poster which Vote Leave promoted as pretty much as bad as "Breaking Point". Michael Gove is dancing to Nigel Farage's tune.
Secondly a question. I know yesterday Michael Crick was reporting that Mair would be charged under terrorism offences but this morning it appears he has been charged with murder and other offences but none of them related to terrorism. Is that correct or have I misread the reports?
It's correct. Notwithstanding a glorious conspiracy theory earlier about his appearance at Westminster he hasn't been charged under terrorism offences. In theory that might come later but Michael Crick looks to have balsed up.
What will the likely reaction be in the EU to a small remain win? And please this is a factual question not a vague way of asking if you love/hate the EU.
The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time. Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups. The counsellor who spoke to him for about 15 minutes on Wednesday said she realised he was in 'some sort of crisis' and there appeared to be a 'real problem'."
Actually I don't think that's fair. The Daily Mail have written a lot on mental health in recent years.
Nothing in the last 2 months - then its the angle they pursue over the death of an MP......
You're also totally wrong about the Mail. They do masses on mental health every week.
Not on the front page.
When other papers are covering a political angle in the death of a politician, I think the word you are looking for is 'evasion' not 'responsible' journalism....but as you say, some people's bias is blinding them to objective truths...
Carlotta, nothing I ever say on the EU ref, ever, would persuade you not to disagree. So there's not a lot of point my trying.
I thought we were discussing media treatment of the death of an MP?
Remain voters are more likely to be middle class and younger and commuting to work, Leave voters will be more working-class and have more unemployed voters and older retired pensioners so are more likely to be at home in the day, hence easier to contact than Remainers
Apropos of nothing, if you want to go back in time a little to see a very real part of white working class culture in all its glory you could do a lot worse than go onto YouTube and watch old episodes of the Wherltappers and Shunters. It's a superb documentation of a communal world that is now almost completely gone and is not coming back. It's incredibly uplifting and also very sad. Clem Attlee on the wall, Bernard Manning doing the compering and no problem at all. Also some absolutely superb turns (as well as some real pony). Best of all is a special done by the Dubliners. It must have been at around the height of the IRA bombing campaign on the mainland when it wasn't nice to be Irish over here, but the mutual warmth and regard is spellbinding and wonderful to see. I have never heard a more beautiful version of Carrickfergus. It's another reminder that at all times what unites us is always greater than what divides us.
We have lost a hell of a lot over the last 40 years, we really have.
One of Britain's strengths is that we don't readily get into hating whole countries - I remember the time too, and there wasn't much anti-Irish sentiment (though we shouldn't gloss over the "No Irish here" B&B stuff earlier), any more than people hated all Argintinians during the Falklands. Similarly I don't think that most people now have problems with individual Pakistanis, even if they're prejudiced or resentful or wary about them at the macro level. I'm not sure that culture in that sense has really got any worse.
I think it's probably got a lot better. What I am referring to is the loss of communalism. We are a far more individualistic culture than we were. That's good in some ways, but I also think it's had some real negatives. There's a joy in being part of something bigger that you identify with and feel a part of wholeheartedly. That, for me, was always a central part of working class culture - doing stuff together: football, pubs, the working men's clubs, trade unions, brass bands, educational societies, painting groups, and so on. It's almost entirely gone now.
Has it? Or has it changed?
I note for instance that almost all of those you mentioned are male preserves. Where were the female clubs etc?
That isn't to say that sexism was a problem, more than now I think "with family" is how people want to spend a lot more of their spare time. If I go to a bar I tend to go with my wife, much more commonly than with my mates.
Yep, that's fair. Family and phone (!) is what we do now and there's nothing wrong with that. But there was a lot to say for the old working class communalism especially if, as you note, you were a bloke.
The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time. Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups. The counsellor who spoke to him for about 15 minutes on Wednesday said she realised he was in 'some sort of crisis' and there appeared to be a 'real problem'."
Actually I don't think that's fair. The Daily Mail have written a lot on mental health in recent years.
Nothing in the last 2 months - then its the angle they pursue over the death of an MP......
Well considering he checked in the day before with mental health problems I'd have thought that's called responsible journalism. I know you want to flog a far-right nasty-Leavers evil-racists line but there's clearly a mental health issue here either as well or instead of the other alleged links.
One of the most insidious aspects of this referendum is the way some people's bias is blinding them to objective truths. I include both sides in that.
You're also totally wrong about the Mail. They do masses on mental health every week.
And Hitchens has been vainly pointing out for ages in the Mail that such killers from Lee Rigby to Paris to US school killers have a common thread of past or present Cannabis use and mental illness.
Cannabis is known to cause paranoia.
He has indeed and you're right. In fact he had an article about it only a week ago.
'Leavers who don't think that their campaign has been all about opposition to immigration must be scrunching their eyes so tightly that they're seeing stars. At the forefront of this campaign that they're not seeing is a series of posters which don't so much dog whistle as wolf whistle.'
Don't let a good smear get in the way of the fact there have been two Leave campaigns.
TSE, are you not mentioning the Qrious poll because:
a) they're not in the BPC b) you don't like it or c) you can't think of a pop pun?
Answers on a postcard please pretty please.
Serious q. though: why no mention?
Not being BPC isn't an issue, as Lord Ashcroft wasn't BPC.
The issue is, I'm yet to see any tables, and someone who knows their onions about opinion polls says Qrious usually poll via a mobile app, which doesn't produce a representative sample, and this is their first political poll, they normally do only consumer/brand polling.
So until I see tables and a methodology note, it's not worth commenting upon.
I cannot see why a mobile App should be any less representative than a landline? In fact since I know less than 10% of people who ever use a landline phone, let alone have one, I'd have thought mobiles are much more accurate? Everyone has one, even my 84 yr old mum.
I said sort-of-tables and when might you stop snapping at me? Let bygones be bygones perhaps now?
You're slightly contradicting yourself by the way. If we're talking about smartphone Apps as opposed to mobile telephones they they may be using wifi rather than 3G so signal isn't particularly relevant. I need a much more convincing argument that mobiles and tablets aren't the future of polling.
Why should any normal person with a smartphone have an App on it from a polling company no one has ever heard of before your post today ?
That's not really how these things work though, is it? By the same token, why should anyone answer a cold call landline? I know I wouldn't. They'd get very short shrift.
I need to see whether the Qrious polling is actually an App or just an online link. I think it may be the latter in fact although it's difficult to work out from their site.
In 15 years I have had 1 call on my landline from a polling company ICM which was not in fact a VI question poll but a post GE survey in 2005 on how I had voted and why . I think that is about par for the course given the total population and number of phone polls . I have though answered perhaps 100 Yougov surveys of VI in that same period of time . I admit that I signed up to the panel because I am a political geek and nowhere near a representative example of the voting public as a whole .
Leave voters easier to contact/poll than Remain voters.
Morning all.
Just a thought - Leavers are probably more vocal in their support, whilst Remainers appear somewhat less enthusiastic, or ambivalent at best by comparison. This may give the impression when polled that Remainers are shy or uncommitted ie normal..!
In my line of work, Remainers are very vocal. Leavers keep quiet.
Mine too - I work in a university and you'd have to have a tin ear not know it's much, much safer for career progression to come out for remain.
Lot of silence going on all over the place. Even within families. My brother confided me he's voting out, but doesn't want his wife or mother to know who are both vocally remain. Just not worth the hassle. That must be a factor in phone polls I should think - both ways.
If you work in a pub or factory by contrast you may be a shy Remainer
Leavers who don't think that their campaign has been all about opposition to immigration must be scrunching their eyes so tightly that they're seeing stars. At the forefront of this campaign that they're not seeing is a series of posters which don't so much dog whistle as wolf whistle.
That is what you are voting for if you vote Leave. Don't fool yourself otherwise.
Or they're seeing campaigning by those who are part of the official Leave campaign rather than just the ones you cherrypick.
Holding Leavers who believe in what Gove and Johnson (or Hoey and Gisella) have been promoting responsible for what Farage is doing makes about as much sense as holding Cameron responsible for Corbyn.
I regard the "(76 million)" poster which Vote Leave promoted as pretty much as bad as "Breaking Point". Michael Gove is dancing to Nigel Farage's tune.
If Leave win, it will be on Nigel Farage's terms.
I guess you might have to start planning your new "Independence for London" party.
The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time. Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups. The counsellor who spoke to him for about 15 minutes on Wednesday said she realised he was in 'some sort of crisis' and there appeared to be a 'real problem'."
Actually I don't think that's fair. The Daily Mail have written a lot on mental health in recent years.
Nothing in the last 2 months - then its the angle they pursue over the death of an MP......
You're also totally wrong about the Mail. They do masses on mental health every week.
Not on the front page.
When other papers are covering a political angle in the death of a politician, I think the word you are looking for is 'evasion' not 'responsible' journalism....but as you say, some people's bias is blinding them to objective truths...
Carlotta, nothing I ever say on the EU ref, ever, would persuade you not to disagree. So there's not a lot of point my trying.
I thought we were discussing media treatment of the death of an MP?
Why do LEAVERS always link that with BREXIT?
Carlotta, you're not as subtle as you think you are. You're here to score points on an Internet forum. Nothing wrong with that. So, to satisfy you, here we are.
Based on the information we have now, there's a Venn diagram with two sets. One is 'Extreme right winger with nazi/white supremacist links', the other is 'man with long history of mental illness'. Those two sets may intersect or be disjoint. What was his motivation for slaying poor Jo Cox? Based on his initial response, there's likely to be some intersection between the two.
Across the Foreign Offices of Europe the diplomats are screaming "why the hell did we ever let those two posh twats get us in to this ?"
Whatever the result Dave and George are damaged goods .
Where was Hammond? Asleep? Overlooked? A R.H.I.N.O. Foreign Office head, very bad for having a cohesive joined up policy.
Instead we had a part time european negotiatiator called Osborne with his part time approach to running the Treasury and Govt budgets. Anyone work out the underlying cause of the 2016 omnishambles budget?
I think it's probably got a lot better. What I am referring to is the loss of communalism. We are a far more individualistic culture than we were. That's good in some ways, but I also think it's had some real negatives. There's a joy in being part of something bigger that you identify with and feel a part of wholeheartedly. That, for me, was always a central part of working class culture - doing stuff together: football, pubs, the working men's clubs, trade unions, brass bands, educational societies, painting groups, and so on. It's almost entirely gone now.
Personally I think that is the result of two distinct developments, one good and one bad.
The good one is technological advance. Obviously in the past getting together with friends necessitated actually going to see them. Entertainment was far more communal but now with the advent of quite incredible electronic connectivity as well as very high quality entertainment systems it is no longer necessary to go to an external mass market provider like a cinema or concert to be entertained.
The second I think is more insidious and a cause for regret. The growth of the state into all our lives in a far more pernicious and encompassing manner means that neighbourhood and community cohesion has collapsed. In the past - and still within my lifetime (I am 50) one would expect a street to look after their own. To know when a neighbour was ill, when a child needed looking after or when there was cause for a celebration or a hug. Most of these roles have now been taken on entirely by the state and so people have largely withdrawn from the role of neighbourhood and street as extended family/support base. Obviously in some rare cases it still exists but mostly people's attitudes seem to be that if someone needs help they should go to social services.
This is not a cry for a return to some mythical past age. In so many ways - life expectancy, health, equality and I believe crime are all much improved on the mid 60s. But there are things we have lost along the way which I think make life both less enjoyable and less communal.
As an addition of course I should have added that the changing nature of employment also has a huge impact with far fewer people working in the immediate locality to where they live in a shared mass employment enterprise.
Apologies if already commented on. Today's Times leader on EU ref; 'best outcome ...... a new alliance of EU sovereign nations dedicated to free trade and reform, led by Britain.' Is that on offer in this week's vote?
Comments
As for the arguments favouring Remain I've yet to hear a single argument favouring Remain from Cameron and co. I've heard a lot of arguments against Leave but if you're not easily afraid they can be water off a ducks back. I've heard Leave make arguments against Remaining and in favour of Leaving.
Remain have fought this campaign with one hand tied behind their back. Forget the risks to Leaving as not everyone is driven by fear. Where is the positive argument FOR remaining?
Even Corbyn has tried to make one! Though it won't appeal to anyone to the right of Karl Marx. Where is Cameron's positive argument?
Even a room of people complaining about the impact of eu regulations on a matter were none too subtle In disdain for leave and the 'manifesto' of Gove and co who would be running things. Granted, that was a room of teachers though. Not gove fans.
We have lost a hell of a lot over the last 40 years, we really have.
You're slightly contradicting yourself by the way. If we're talking about smartphone Apps as opposed to mobile telephones they they may be using wifi rather than 3G so signal isn't particularly relevant. I need a much more convincing argument that mobiles and tablets aren't the future of polling.
(I think it was Toby Young's piece for the Speccy)
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/brexit-facts-not-fear/
Good job it's a secret ballot *innocent face*
Have you seen Lexit? The left-wing case for Leave.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pq72f81kkM4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0
Regarding phones, my venerable Nokia 6310i is still in use as our constituency party phone. Pretty sure it will outlive the apocalypse and still last for a week before the battery goes flat.
But yes, I think admitting you are for remain could be tricky I some professions.
OGH really ought to publicise that there is a mobile friendly version at Vanillaforums.
It seems to use far less bandwidth as well when you refresh
The collapse of the mining industry seems to get aired at almost every general election, but the UK fishing industry, whose demise seems to be largely attributable to our joining the EU/Common Fisheries Policy, has not really featured.
Lot of silence going on all over the place. Even within families. My brother confided me he's voting out, but doesn't want his wife or mother to know who are both vocally remain. Just not worth the hassle. That must be a factor in phone polls I should think - both ways.
This is a betting website, I'm not going to do a thread on a poll from new pollster without seeing the tables and methodology notes.
http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Human_Spaceflight/Principia/Live_Tim_returns_to_Earth
I need to see whether the Qrious polling is actually an App or just an online link. I think it may be the latter in fact although it's difficult to work out from their site.
10th June was a Friday, so presumably on the first call quite a few people were at work, hence those contacted likely to be proportionately more elderly and hence leavers.
Over the weekend (second calls - I assume were evening or on 11th/12th June), they caught more working age affluent people, i.e. disproportionately remainers and then on Monday-Wednesday(13th-15th), mopped up disproportionately more leavers as they were getting their representative sample.
If the fieldwork had started on the Wednesday, might it not have appeared that remainers were harder to contact as likely some of the people caught on the second call are only available at weekends?
Which is why I think a mobile App may hit the sweet spot a lot, lot, better than either fixed home online polling or landline phones.
But we shall see. We shall see.
I'll buy that argument if I can substitute 'idiots' for 'everyone'. It's the sort of mentality you find in a playground. This country has had unprecedent levels of immigration over the last twenty years.
By and large, the indigenes have been friendly and welcoming. We haven't seen riots in the streets, lynch parties and whatnot. So I don't buy this image of a nation of raging xenephobes. People want to come here because they know the British are good, decent people. Those in love with symbols that think voting Leave will immediately portray the UK as 21st Nazi Germany need to get a grip.
The Internet does for commentary what Gresham's Law does for currencies. Rather than take a typical Leaver's view that immigration should be managed to suit the British, it's much easier to cut to some tattooed numbskull raving about getting rid of all the fookin' muslimics.
One more time for the hard of thinking. Guilt by association does not work. Please stop using it as an argument.
*edited for crimes against grammar*
One of the most insidious aspects of this referendum is the way some people's bias is blinding them to objective truths. I include both sides in that.
You're also totally wrong about the Mail. They do masses on mental health every week.
On a purely factual basis, I imagine a small remain win would be met with measured statements applauding the decision, acknowledging that there are concerns in Europe but we must all come together to work them out, and that some things must change.
However, the easiest thing for any large bureaucratic organisation is to do nothing. There is massive inertia in almost all big organisations.
A small remain win is more a problem for UK political parties. It is not a problem for the EU.
That is what you are voting for if you vote Leave. Don't fool yourself otherwise.
I note for instance that almost all of those you mentioned are male preserves. Where were the female clubs etc?
That isn't to say that sexism was a problem, more than now I think "with family" is how people want to spend a lot more of their spare time. If I go to a bar I tend to go with my wife, much more commonly than with my mates.
Hope you are all having a fine Saturday morning.
Couple of points from overnight.
I see the IMF report has landed and seemingly sunk without trace. Perhaps because it is not predicting all the doom and gloom that the Treasury said would follow a Brexit.
Secondly a question. I know yesterday Michael Crick was reporting that Mair would be charged under terrorism offences but this morning it appears he has been charged with murder and other offences but none of them related to terrorism. Is that correct or have I misread the reports?
- A lot of grunt work to implement Cameron's agreement, including working it through the various parliaments.
When other papers are covering a political angle in the death of a politician, I think the word you are looking for is 'evasion' not 'responsible' journalism....but as you say, some people's bias is blinding them to objective truths...
And Hitchens has been vainly pointing out for ages in the Mail that such killers from Lee Rigby to Paris to US school killers have a common thread of past or present Cannabis use and mental illness.
Cannabis is known to cause paranoia.
Asked his name the defendant in the dock says "My name is death to traitors, freedom for Britain."
Holding Leavers who believe in what Gove and Johnson (or Hoey and Gisella) have been promoting responsible for what Farage is doing makes about as much sense as holding Cameron responsible for Corbyn.
They also quality control the Apps.
Very interesting. Might be bollocks. Might not be.
The defendant said nothing when asked his address and his date of birth
If Leave win, it will be on Nigel Farage's terms.
Bonds need to be constantly renewed for them to hold.
Why do LEAVERS always link that with BREXIT?
*innocent face*.
'Leavers who don't think that their campaign has been all about opposition to immigration must be scrunching their eyes so tightly that they're seeing stars. At the forefront of this campaign that they're not seeing is a series of posters which don't so much dog whistle as wolf whistle.'
Don't let a good smear get in the way of the fact there have been two Leave campaigns.
It should be: "The modal differences strike back."
(or: "The modal difference strikes back.")
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/743884179092443136
Based on the information we have now, there's a Venn diagram with two sets. One is 'Extreme right winger with nazi/white supremacist links', the other is 'man with long history of mental illness'. Those two sets may intersect or be disjoint. What was his motivation for slaying poor Jo Cox? Based on his initial response, there's likely to be some intersection between the two.
Instead we had a part time european negotiatiator called Osborne with his part time approach to running the Treasury and Govt budgets. Anyone work out the underlying cause of the 2016 omnishambles budget?
*innocent face*
whistles
The good one is technological advance. Obviously in the past getting together with friends necessitated actually going to see them. Entertainment was far more communal but now with the advent of quite incredible electronic connectivity as well as very high quality entertainment systems it is no longer necessary to go to an external mass market provider like a cinema or concert to be entertained.
The second I think is more insidious and a cause for regret. The growth of the state into all our lives in a far more pernicious and encompassing manner means that neighbourhood and community cohesion has collapsed. In the past - and still within my lifetime (I am 50) one would expect a street to look after their own. To know when a neighbour was ill, when a child needed looking after or when there was cause for a celebration or a hug. Most of these roles have now been taken on entirely by the state and so people have largely withdrawn from the role of neighbourhood and street as extended family/support base. Obviously in some rare cases it still exists but mostly people's attitudes seem to be that if someone needs help they should go to social services.
This is not a cry for a return to some mythical past age. In so many ways - life expectancy, health, equality and I believe crime are all much improved on the mid 60s. But there are things we have lost along the way which I think make life both less enjoyable and less communal.
As an addition of course I should have added that the changing nature of employment also has a huge impact with far fewer people working in the immediate locality to where they live in a shared mass employment enterprise.