BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
This is so sad. An important exercise in democracy is going to effectively decided by one clearly insane man. Remain have won.
Oh not you too.
For goodness sake get a grip you and Sean. This loony / extremist isn't going to affect the outcome. People can obviously see he's so far off the scale that it will make no difference.
Ironically if he'd been more midstream it might have been different. But he isn't. He's out there: far right, far loopy and it will have no effect.
It might have an effect, but not because people think, a murderer is for Brexit therefore Brexit is bad.
This referendum has been marked by falsehoods, exaggerations and lack of respect for opponents. Voters aren't so much for Leave or Remain as alienated by the whole exercise. And then this happens.
I suspect their disgust could manifest itself in two ways.
1. Not bother to turn out. This would probably have a neutral effect on the result of it applies equally to soft Leave and Remain voters.
2. Stick with with the status quo. Leave and Remain positions aren't symmetrical. Leave have to make the case for change. It's more difficult to get buy in from people that are fed up
The effect is not likely to be more than a few percent.
Regardless of whether the murder affects the voting numbers, it will definitely play into the narrative following the vote if Remain wins.
I wish people would stop equating mental illness with insanity. Thia man was clearly able to function perfectly well in society with his OCD and such. Very rarely is mental illness sonething which leads to others being in danger. His actions were something we would like to think come only from insanity but the evidence is so far showing that it was not.
Doesn't the murder of Anna Lindh provide our only guide how this tragic event may impact the polls. I'm not sure we're so different to the Swedes, temperamentally
Well, there is the counterexample of Pim Fortuyn. His assassination led to significant gains for his List party. I’m not sure we’re so different to the Dutch temperamentally.
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
This is so sad. An important exercise in democracy is going to effectively decided by one clearly insane man. Remain have won.
Oh not you too.
For goodness sake get a grip you and Sean. This loony / extremist isn't going to affect the outcome. People can obviously see he's so far off the scale that it will make no difference.
Ironically if he'd been more midstream it might have been different. But he isn't. He's out there: far right, far loopy and it will have no effect.
It will affect the outcome.
It's given Remain something powerfull to cling too and they've used it well.
On Thursday morning we were asking what else Remain could throw at the campaign with Leave six points ahead. They looked bereft and lacking in momentum but Jo Cox's death changed the whole debate.
I don't blame the bignouths on the left for using it (see Alastair Campbell's twitter feed this morning) because the bigmouths on the right would've done the same if it had been an Islamist attack.
I wish people would stop equating mental illness with insanity. Thia man was clearly able to function perfectly well in society with his OCD and such. Very rarely is mental illness sonething which leads to others being in danger. His actions were something we would like to think come only from insanity but the evidence is so far showing that it was not.
Yup, horrible to see scapegoating of mental illness like this.
It is hard to believe the content of what is on this site this morning. Get a grip, everyone. For what it is worth I am guessing that as the reality of the event sinks in a number who were going to vote Leave will simply abstain on Thursday. Might will upset the polls, although the BMG telephone poll report is surprising.
Anything that happens at such a critical point in the campaign, and with extreme and irrational motivation likely, will have some sort of effect, even if it is subtle. It seems improbable such a thing would reverse and overturn leave momentum entirely, but a slight check? That seems possible. But if Remain do squeak a win, it won't have been because of this, although that may have been, even if slightly, a contributory factor.
You sound as though you are struggling for words to distinguish between different classes of causation, and over-qualifying what you are saying. The murder of Jo Cox has been the subject of many reports and commentaries, it has shocked many people, and it has been discussed a lot in the country. Given the roughly equal pegging between the two campaigns (I'm not saying it's 50-50; that would be absurd), the murder could easily change enough people's votes to win the referendum for one side or the other.
The thing is I don't think the campaigns are level pegging, I think Leave have a small but clear lead, and so I don't think enough could change to alter the result that would have happened anyway, I think if Remain win they probably would have anyway.
It is hard to believe the content of what is on this site this morning. Get a grip, everyone.
It all seems pretty thoughtful, for the most part. A little self reflection, a reassessing of the situation, seems healthy and appropriate from time to time.
Re Times leader. Thanks for the replies.Confession to make I wasn't really asking the question, I thought their proposition laughable.
Re 459 MPs for remain. Though I am 'Eurosceptic' since Maastrict at least I have never really liked the 'political elite' generalisation. But Roger surely if the result is 50/50 ish (I still think narrow remain win) it is legitimate to ask why those that lead us are so unrepresentative of the views of the electorate as a whole.
Re the awful murder of Jo Cox MP. To even talk about it's effect makes me uneasy. Imagine for a moment this was a female relative of yours and people were using it to have spats on Twitter etc. So sickening and depressing.
Despite the fact I've yearned for this referendum I'll be glad when it's over now. The level of the campaigns on both sides has been dire with what is for me the real issue "Who governs?" rarely touched upon. I do now fear for what follows a close outcome, either way. Period of healing needed but I'm not hopeful.
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
I think we can now assume that the eye witnesses who said he yelled 'Britain First' while committing his awful crime weren't just making it up. Nor was it all any invention of Laurie Penny, as some on here suggested.
It is hard to believe the content of what is on this site this morning. Get a grip, everyone. For what it is worth I am guessing that as the reality of the event sinks in a number who were going to vote Leave will simply abstain on Thursday. Might will upset the polls, although the BMG telephone poll report is surprising.
Headline number is based on 90% turnout after various pushes, squeezes, reweightings etc.
I wish people would stop equating mental illness with insanity. Thia man was clearly able to function perfectly well in society with his OCD and such. Very rarely is mental illness sonething which leads to others being in danger. His actions were something we would like to think come only from insanity but the evidence is so far showing that it was not.
Mr Mair should be considered innocent until proven guilty. But the descriptions of what happened when a man is said to have stabbed and shot Mrs Cox to death in the street do not seem to be of someone functioning perfectly well in society.
Anything that happens at such a critical point in the campaign, and with extreme and irrational motivation likely, will have some sort of effect, even if it is subtle. It seems improbable such a thing would reverse and overturn leave momentum entirely, but a slight check? That seems possible. But if Remain do squeak a win, it won't have been because of this, although that may have been, even if slightly, a contributory factor.
You sound as though you are struggling for words to distinguish between different classes of causation, and over-qualifying what you are saying. The murder of Jo Cox has been the subject of many reports and commentaries, it has shocked many people, and it has been discussed a lot in the country. Given the roughly equal pegging between the two campaigns (I'm not saying it's 50-50; that would be absurd), the murder could easily change enough people's votes to win the referendum for one side or the other.
The thing is I don't think the campaigns are level pegging, I think Leave have a small but clear lead, and so I don't think enough could change to alter the result that would have happened anyway, I think if Remain win they probably would have anyway.
If people have changed their minds from Remain to Leave, which seems feasible, recent events could easily sway them back again. I really struggle to see many undecided voters from prior to Thursday veering to Leave now either.
I wish people would stop equating mental illness with insanity. Thia man was clearly able to function perfectly well in society with his OCD and such. Very rarely is mental illness sonething which leads to others being in danger. His actions were something we would like to think come only from insanity but the evidence is so far showing that it was not.
Mr Mair should be considered innocent until proven guilty. But the descriptions of what happened when a man is said to have stabbed and shot Mrs Cox to death in the street do not seem to be of someone functioning perfectly well in society.
Indeed, although that does not follow that he is legally insane.
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
This is so sad. An important exercise in democracy is going to effectively decided by one clearly insane man. Remain have won.
Oh not you too.
For goodness sake get a grip you and Sean. This loony / extremist isn't going to affect the outcome. People can obviously see he's so far off the scale that it will make no difference.
Ironically if he'd been more midstream it might have been different. But he isn't. He's out there: far right, far loopy and it will have no effect.
It is not good media coverage for leave. My wife 'gasped' on the report of his plea and is very worried about extremism. I think this terrible event and today's plea will be unsettling to a lot of voters and as far as tomorrow's Mail on Sunday's headlines are concerned they will be interesting as they are for remain. I have been of the opinion that leave had won until the combination of the assassination of Jo Cox coinciding on the same day as Farage's crass poster and now today's plea which may have tipped the scales to remain. However, not long to wait and as I have said before I will accept the will of the people and move on hopefully to a kinder narrative from all
Watching another F1 free practice session from Baku. Monza speeds down a street circuit with no run-offs, many narrow 90 degree turns then a stupid bit climbing past the castle where the circuit is basically 1 car wide.
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
I think we can now assume that the eye witnesses who said he yelled 'Britain First' while committing his awful crime weren't just making it up. Nor was it all any invention of Laurie Penny, as some on here suggested.
I'm glad you're not on the jury. If someone said that in court, that does NOT mean you should "assume" that "evidence" that they said something else on another occasion is reliable.
One of the supposed witnesses to the "Britain First" shout has said he didn't hear such a shout. And for all I know, he may have been misquoted or misleadingly quoted in the first place, rather than having changed his story. Trial is not by media.
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
I think we can now assume that the eye witnesses who said he yelled 'Britain First' while committing his awful crime weren't just making it up. Nor was it all any invention of Laurie Penny, as some on here suggested.
Yes. I also suspect the authorities are already sitting on other information about other current political links of his.
Oddly, I'm quite interested to see if John Oliver tackles the Euroref on his programme tomorrow. He tackled the SindyRef and is usually quite good on more non political topics (or less partisan ones) in exploring an issue in an amusing and indepth fashion. But he is also incredibly partisan when it comes to party politics (more so US than obviously here, but probably due to the latter not being brought up much in his US career), and deeply dislikes Cameron, so while I'd expect him to be a Remainer, I wonder how he would choose to make that argument.
Ladbrokes' markets only half there, but there's 1.57 on there being under 17.5 finishers (I suspect individual bets on certain cars not to be classified may be better value).
Doesn't the murder of Anna Lindh provide our only guide how this tragic event may impact the polls. I'm not sure we're so different to the Swedes, temperamentally
yes, our Euroscepticism is about the same.
But that was for the euro, if we were having a vote for the euro, this murder would still mean a win for no, but we aren't.
Anything that happens at such a critical point in the campaign, and with extreme and irrational motivation likely, will have some sort of effect, even if it is subtle. It seems improbable such a thing would reverse and overturn leave momentum entirely, but a slight check? That seems possible. But if Remain do squeak a win, it won't have been because of this, although that may have been, even if slightly, a contributory factor.
You sound as though you are struggling for words to distinguish between different classes of causation, and over-qualifying what you are saying. The murder of Jo Cox has been the subject of many reports and commentaries, it has shocked many people, and it has been discussed a lot in the country. Given the roughly equal pegging between the two campaigns (I'm not saying it's 50-50; that would be absurd), the murder could easily change enough people's votes to win the referendum for one side or the other.
The thing is I don't think the campaigns are level pegging, I think Leave have a small but clear lead, and so I don't think enough could change to alter the result that would have happened anyway, I think if Remain win they probably would have anyway.
From the behaviour of the Remain campaign (before the murder) I've been assuming the postal votes have been very pro-Leave.
I wish people would stop equating mental illness with insanity. Thia man was clearly able to function perfectly well in society with his OCD and such. Very rarely is mental illness sonething which leads to others being in danger. His actions were something we would like to think come only from insanity but the evidence is so far showing that it was not.
Mr Mair should be considered innocent until proven guilty. But the descriptions of what happened when a man is said to have stabbed and shot Mrs Cox to death in the street do not seem to be of someone functioning perfectly well in society.
But he is a very, very rare case. Some may want to think that you have to be mad to kill but hatred is the usual cause and his hatred appears to have been long standing, if hidden (which suggests he also knew that his views were socially unacceptable).
He appears to have killed through hate, not madness.
Anything that happens at such a critical point in the campaign, and with extreme and irrational motivation likely, will have some sort of effect, even if it is subtle. It seems improbable such a thing would reverse and overturn leave momentum entirely, but a slight check? That seems possible. But if Remain do squeak a win, it won't have been because of this, although that may have been, even if slightly, a contributory factor.
You sound as though you are struggling for words to distinguish between different classes of causation, and over-qualifying what you are saying. The murder of Jo Cox has been the subject of many reports and commentaries, it has shocked many people, and it has been discussed a lot in the country. Given the roughly equal pegging between the two campaigns (I'm not saying it's 50-50; that would be absurd), the murder could easily change enough people's votes to win the referendum for one side or the other.
The thing is I don't think the campaigns are level pegging, I think Leave have a small but clear lead, and so I don't think enough could change to alter the result that would have happened anyway, I think if Remain win they probably would have anyway.
Let's say you're right that Leave have a small but clear lead. Are you saying that if Remain do win, then you will reconsider your view that Leave were previously ahead? Why change your view on that, rather than your view that there couldn't be a sizeable enough swing to change the result?
I do wonder if we're making too much of this in terms of impact. It's hard to assess because everyone here is more politically attuned than most people. There's rugby and football on, plus the Grand Prix, so people may well enjoy a weekend of sport and then the politics will be back on during the week.
I do hope it doesn't affect the result. The decision should be made on what people feel is in the UK's best interests.
Watching another F1 free practice session from Baku. Monza speeds down a street circuit with no run-offs, many narrow 90 degree turns then a stupid bit climbing past the castle where the circuit is basically 1 car wide.
Could be a fun race....
The real race starts at 2 this afternoon when the LeMans 24hr kicks off. F1 speeds and racing fir a whole day. Dont miss it especially as the Toyotas have a real chance this year to beat the Audis and Porsches.
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
This is so sad. An important exercise in democracy is going to effectively decided by one clearly insane man. Remain have won.
Oh not you too.
For goodness sake get a grip you and Sean. This loony / extremist isn't going to affect the outcome. People can obviously see he's so far off the scale that it will make no difference.
Ironically if he'd been more midstream it might have been different. But he isn't. He's out there: far right, far loopy and it will have no effect.
It is not good media coverage for leave. My wife 'gasped' on the report of his plea and is very worried about extremism. I think this terrible event and today's plea will be unsettling to a lot of voters and as far as tomorrow's Mail on Sunday's headlines are concerned they will be interesting as they are for remain. I have been of the opinion that leave had won until the combination of the assassination of Jo Cox coinciding on the same day as Farage's crass poster and now today's plea which may have tipped the scales to remain. However, not long to wait and as I have said before I will accept the will of the people and move on hopefully to a kinder narrative from all
It has given some of my ethnic minority colleagues pause for thought. A couple who were outspoken for Leave have reconsidered at what they perceive as a xenophobic attack.
This came out spontaneously , and surprised me, in a coffee break discussion this morning.
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
This is so sad. An important exercise in democracy is going to effectively decided by one clearly insane man. Remain have won.
Oh not you too.
For goodness sake get a grip you and Sean. This loony / extremist isn't going to affect the outcome. People can obviously see he's so far off the scale that it will make no difference.
Ironically if he'd been more midstream it might have been different. But he isn't. He's out there: far right, far loopy and it will have no effect.
It is not good media coverage for leave. My wife 'gasped' on the report of his plea and is very worried about extremism. I think this terrible event and today's plea will be unsettling to a lot of voters and as far as tomorrow's Mail on Sunday's headlines are concerned they will be interesting as they are for remain. I have been of the opinion that leave had won until the combination of the assassination of Jo Cox coinciding on the same day as Farage's crass poster and now today's plea which may have tipped the scales to remain. However, not long to wait and as I have said before I will accept the will of the people and move on hopefully to a kinder narrative from all
I think this comment is closest to what is likely.
Rightly or wrongly, a lot of people will suspect that this terrible event has happened now because of the Referendum (the alternative being coincidence)...and therefore without the Referendum, it might not have happened (...some people will think). Surely it is a relatively small step, for people who aren't politically engaged and not particularly convinced by either of the campaigns, to start worrying about to what sort of events an actual Leave vote might lead?
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
This is so sad. An important exercise in democracy is going to effectively decided by one clearly insane man. Remain have won.
Oh not you too.
For goodness sake get a grip you and Sean. This loony / extremist isn't going to affect the outcome. People can obviously see he's so far off the scale that it will make no difference.
Ironically if he'd been more midstream it might have been different. But he isn't. He's out there: far right, far loopy and it will have no effect.
It is not good media coverage for leave. My wife 'gasped' on the report of his plea and is very worried about extremism. I think this terrible event and today's plea will be unsettling to a lot of voters and as far as tomorrow's Mail on Sunday's headlines are concerned they will be interesting as they are for remain. I have been of the opinion that leave had won until the combination of the assassination of Jo Cox coinciding on the same day as Farage's crass poster and now today's plea which may have tipped the scales to remain. However, not long to wait and as I have said before I will accept the will of the people and move on hopefully to a kinder narrative from all
I think this comment is closest to what is likely.
Rightly or wrongly, a lot of people will suspect that this terrible event has happened now because of the Referendum (the alternative being coincidence)...and therefore without the Referendum, it might not have happened (...some people will think). Surely it is a relatively small step, for people who aren't politically engaged and not particularly convinced by either of the campaigns, to start worrying about to what sort of events an actual Leave vote might lead?
"Time to lance this boil, and try something different" is the stronger narrative...
All of this will boost people's resolve for Leave.
Why is this - and other horrible things - happening?
What can we do to stop or reduce it?
Is the status quo the answer, or the cause of the problem?
They'll vote for change... for Leave.
Hmmmm let me see what my mum says unpromoted, she predicted the GE 2015 result 'cos Ed was so poor and labour still wanted to over spend. I got it completely wrong because I believed the polls.
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
This is so sad. An important exercise in democracy is going to effectively decided by one clearly insane man. Remain have won.
Oh not you too.
For goodness sake get a grip you and Sean. This loony / extremist isn't going to affect the outcome. People can obviously see he's so far off the scale that it will make no difference.
Ironically if he'd been more midstream it might have been different. But he isn't. He's out there: far right, far loopy and it will have no effect.
It is not good media coverage for leave. My wife 'gasped' on the report of his plea and is very worried about extremism. I think this terrible event and today's plea will be unsettling to a lot of voters and as far as tomorrow's Mail on Sunday's headlines are concerned they will be interesting as they are for remain. I have been of the opinion that leave had won until the combination of the assassination of Jo Cox coinciding on the same day as Farage's crass poster and now today's plea which may have tipped the scales to remain. However, not long to wait and as I have said before I will accept the will of the people and move on hopefully to a kinder narrative from all
I think this comment is closest to what is likely.
Rightly or wrongly, a lot of people will suspect that this terrible event has happened now because of the Referendum (the alternative being coincidence)...and therefore without the Referendum, it might not have happened (...some people will think). Surely it is a relatively small step, for people who aren't politically engaged and not particularly convinced by either of the campaigns, to start worrying about to what sort of events an actual Leave vote might lead?
"Time to lance this boil, and try something different" is the stronger narrative...
Honestly I don't see it. I'd accept a good argument that, when it comes to it, it won't make much difference. But I really can't see how someone might join the dots in the way you suggest. If you take the view that he's a lone nutter, or isolated extremist, then it doesn't make any difference. If you take view that he might be (a very extreme outlier of) a symptom of something unpleasant, I doubt you would conclude that voting Leave is a way of seeing it off.
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
I think we can now assume that the eye witnesses who said he yelled 'Britain First' while committing his awful crime weren't just making it up. Nor was it all any invention of Laurie Penny, as some on here suggested.
I'm glad you're not on the jury. If someone said that in court, that does NOT mean you should "assume" that "evidence" that they said something else on another occasion is reliable.
One of the supposed witnesses to the "Britain First" shout has said he didn't hear such a shout. And for all I know, he may have been misquoted or misleadingly quoted in the first place, rather than having changed his story. Trial is not by media.
So you still entertain the possibility that he didn't yell 'Britain First' and those who claim he did, by some amazing coincidence considering what we now know, were just making it up?
It is not good media coverage for leave. I think this terrible event and today's plea will be unsettling to a lot of voters. The combination of the assassination of Jo Cox coinciding on the same day as Farage's crass poster and now today's plea may have tipped the scales to remain.
I agree, apart from the fact that I expected Remain to win even on the morning before the assassination. The murderer is clearly a Brexiteer. I expect Remain will win by >10%.
Anything that happens at such a critical point in the campaign, and with extreme and irrational motivation likely, will have some sort of effect, even if it is subtle. It seems improbable such a thing would reverse and overturn leave momentum entirely, but a slight check? That seems possible. But if Remain do squeak a win, it won't have been because of this, although that may have been, even if slightly, a contributory factor.
You sound as though you are struggling for words to distinguish between different classes of causation, and over-qualifying what you are saying. The murder of Jo Cox has been the subject of many reports and commentaries, it has shocked many people, and it has been discussed a lot in the country. Given the roughly equal pegging between the two campaigns (I'm not saying it's 50-50; that would be absurd), the murder could easily change enough people's votes to win the referendum for one side or the other.
The thing is I don't think the campaigns are level pegging, I think Leave have a small but clear lead, and so I don't think enough could change to alter the result that would have happened anyway, I think if Remain win they probably would have anyway.
Let's say you're right that Leave have a small but clear lead. Are you saying that if Remain do win, then you will reconsider your view that Leave were previously ahead? Why change your view on that, rather than your view that there couldn't be a sizeable enough swing to change the result?
Because I think the chances I am simply wrong about how close it currently is, is higher than the chance I am wrong about how significant a swing might arise as a result of this particular event or general swingback.
I could, of course, be wrong about how wrong I am, or wrong about both those assumptions.
Anything that happens at such a critical point in the campaign, and with extreme and irrational motivation likely, will have some sort of effect, even if it is subtle. It seems improbable such a thing would reverse and overturn leave momentum entirely, but a slight check? That seems possible. But if Remain do squeak a win, it won't have been because of this, although that may have been, even if slightly, a contributory factor.
You sound as though you are struggling for words to distinguish between different classes of causation, and over-qualifying what you are saying. The murder of Jo Cox has been the subject of many reports and commentaries, it has shocked many people, and it has been discussed a lot in the country. Given the roughly equal pegging between the two campaigns (I'm not saying it's 50-50; that would be absurd), the murder could easily change enough people's votes to win the referendum for one side or the other.
The thing is I don't think the campaigns are level pegging, I think Leave have a small but clear lead, and so I don't think enough could change to alter the result that would have happened anyway, I think if Remain win they probably would have anyway.
From the behaviour of the Remain campaign (before the murder) I've been assuming the postal votes have been very pro-Leave.
Mr. Dawning, at least one witness said he heard nothing. People make mistakes with eyewitness testimony.
Anyway, I'm off. Channel 4 has qualifying and the race live this weekend, although please be aware that your intelligence may be insulted by the presence of Steve Jones.
I'll likely put the pre-race piece up this evening.
If you REALLY want a fun news story, try this from the Express.
"DOOMSDAY COMING? Full moon before summer solstice 'could spark madness and mass shootings' A FULL moon on MONDAY just before the summer solstice could bring chaos, delusional behaviour and even mass shootings, an astrologer has warned.”
You couldn’t make it up, could you? I think that would even be beyond Sean T’s imagination.
The Guardian: "Mair was not required to enter a plea". That will be because magistrates can't try murder, an indictable-only offence. They can't even commit for trial. Don't hacks know anything? Barack Obama phoned Jo Cox's widower. He also said there could be no justification for the crime. Well thanks for your input, Barack. Doreen Lawrence's words were much more genuine, which is of course not surprising.
Anything that happens at such a critical point in the campaign, and with extreme and irrational motivation likely, will have some sort of effect, even if it is subtle. It seems improbable such a thing would reverse and overturn leave momentum entirely, but a slight check? That seems possible. But if Remain do squeak a win, it won't have been because of this, although that may have been, even if slightly, a contributory factor.
You sound as though you are struggling for words to distinguish between different classes of causation, and over-qualifying what you are saying. The murder of Jo Cox has been the subject of many reports and commentaries, it has shocked many people, and it has been discussed a lot in the country. Given the roughly equal pegging between the two campaigns (I'm not saying it's 50-50; that would be absurd), the murder could easily change enough people's votes to win the referendum for one side or the other.
The thing is I don't think the campaigns are level pegging, I think Leave have a small but clear lead, and so I don't think enough could change to alter the result that would have happened anyway, I think if Remain win they probably would have anyway.
Let's say you're right that Leave have a small but clear lead. Are you saying that if Remain do win, then you will reconsider your view that Leave were previously ahead? Why change your view on that, rather than your view that there couldn't be a sizeable enough swing to change the result?
Because I think the chances I am simply wrong about how close it currently is, is higher than the chance I am wrong about how significant a swing might arise as a result of this particular event or general swingback.
I could, of course, be wrong about how wrong I am, or wrong about both those assumptions.
I really like this post - sure many are as conflicted
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
This is so sad. An important exercise in democracy is going to effectively decided by one clearly insane man. Remain have won.
Oh not you too.
For goodness sake get a grip you and Sean. This loony / extremist isn't going to affect the outcome. People can obviously see he's so far off the scale that it will make no difference.
Ironically if he'd been more midstream it might have been different. But he isn't. He's out there: far right, far loopy and it will have no effect.
It is not good media coverage for leave. My wife 'gasped' on the report of his plea and is very worried about extremism. I think this terrible event and today's plea will be unsettling to a lot of voters and as far as tomorrow's Mail on Sunday's headlines are concerned they will be interesting as they are for remain. I have been of the opinion that leave had won until the combination of the assassination of Jo Cox coinciding on the same day as Farage's crass poster and now today's plea which may have tipped the scales to remain. However, not long to wait and as I have said before I will accept the will of the people and move on hopefully to a kinder narrative from all
You're being beyond naïve if you think a 'kinder narrative' is coming after a Remain win.
Leave supporters have been demonised as xenophobes, bigots, Little Englanders, carrot crunchers, football hooligans, waycists and much more.
The campaign of hate aimed at rural and working class areas is coming.
As if that weren't bad enough, I'm pretty sure that chant is a derivation of the rhetoric the Arabs used against the Jews before the 1948 Arab-Israeli war...
Imagine that was a bus load of tories singing this about Labour
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
I think we can now assume that the eye witnesses who said he yelled 'Britain First' while committing his awful crime weren't just making it up. Nor was it all any invention of Laurie Penny, as some on here suggested.
I'm glad you're not on the jury. If someone said that in court, that does NOT mean you should "assume" that "evidence" that they said something else on another occasion is reliable.
One of the supposed witnesses to the "Britain First" shout has said he didn't hear such a shout. And for all I know, he may have been misquoted or misleadingly quoted in the first place, rather than having changed his story. Trial is not by media.
Four people have currently been named as eyewitnesses.
* Two were either too far away or did not witness the beginning and so could not testify to the truth or otherwise of the "Britain First" cry (or variants thereof). One of those two are the person you are referring to * Two other eyewitnesses have spoken of the cry and have not recanted, so Breitbart is busy doxxing them.
As for the purported photograph, well i have no idea whether it is him or not in the photo (it certainly looks like him IMHO), but it's difficult to dismiss it as a fake given that it was uploaded in November 2015[1]
[1] I spent some time establishing this last night: see here h ttp://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1111975/#Comment_1111975
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
I think we can now assume that the eye witnesses who said he yelled 'Britain First' while committing his awful crime weren't just making it up. Nor was it all any invention of Laurie Penny, as some on here suggested.
I'm glad you're not on the jury. If someone said that in court, that does NOT mean you should "assume" that "evidence" that they said something else on another occasion is reliable.
One of the supposed witnesses to the "Britain First" shout has said he didn't hear such a shout. And for all I know, he may have been misquoted or misleadingly quoted in the first place, rather than having changed his story. Trial is not by media.
So you still entertain the possibility that he didn't yell 'Britain First' and those who claim he did, by some amazing coincidence considering what we now know, were just making it up?
I think the point was that jurors have to make their minds up based on evidence which is actually presented in court, and not what they may have read about in the newspapers beforehand. (And even if someone says "yyyyyyy" in court, that in itself does not prove that they also said "yyyyyy" at around the time the time the crime was committed.)
"People will see what they want to see but what will have happened is that a country has taken a democratic decision. It is not reputation which ultimately matters but substance. I think BTW that you have a pretty rosy picture of how Britain is see. Britain has not been known as Perfidious Albion for nothing".
It's surprising how much the reputation of a country does matter. It's a brand like everything else. Germany is a brand. Think what that means in terms of selling cars pharmaceutiicals or technology. 'GERMAN Technology' has a value which the brand GERMANY gives it The UK is a brand. Ask anyone in the fashion industry or the great service industries the cachet it gives you to be working within the UK brand. Surprising but true.
Try selling the very latest technology with 'made in YEMEN' or Pharmaceuticals 'made in The CONGO' or courture fashion 'made in TUNISIA' and you'll see the value of a brand.
'Farage's xenophobic BRITAIN' will do a very valuable brand no good at all.
I bow to your superior knowledge on branding. But branding is not the only value that matters and may not be the most important one. Substance matters. Britain has to be a country which its citizens are comfortable in. And part of that comfort will come from its citizens' exercise of their democratic vote. Democracy matters. Democracy in Britain matters. Britain is not just a product to be sold.
We have 459 MPs in favour of Remaining 180 for Leaving. Under our form of democracy that means we should Remain. This ad hoc approach to democracy suggests it's something of a moveable feast. If this is legitimate democracy then what does it say about the one we normally use?
My daughter feels that this should have been left to Parliament. She wonders why we are having a referendum at all. It's a fair point.
But given that we are having one we will each of us have to exercise our right to vote in the way we think best. It is not an easy decision for me to make, I have to say. Even at this late stage, given that in 24 hours I shall be in France, I'm havering.
Time for some fresh air I think.
Lucky you again! I love France in May and June probably more than anywhere else.
Let us know your decision and as my old headmaster once said 'Make no decision of which Solomon might disapprove'
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
This is so sad. An important exercise in democracy is going to effectively decided by one clearly insane man. Remain have won.
Oh not you too.
For goodness sake get a grip you and Sean. This loony / extremist isn't going to affect the outcome. People can obviously see he's so far off the scale that it will make no difference.
Ironically if he'd been more midstream it might have been different. But he isn't. He's out there: far right, far loopy and it will have no effect.
It is not good media coverage for leave. My wife 'gasped' on the report of his plea and is very worried about extremism. I think this terrible event and today's plea will be unsettling to a lot of voters and as far as tomorrow's Mail on Sunday's headlines are concerned they will be interesting as they are for remain. I have been of the opinion that leave had won until the combination of the assassination of Jo Cox coinciding on the same day as Farage's crass poster and now today's plea which may have tipped the scales to remain. However, not long to wait and as I have said before I will accept the will of the people and move on hopefully to a kinder narrative from all
You're being beyond naïve if you think a 'kinder narrative' is coming after a Remain win.
Leave supporters have been demonised as xenophobes, bigots, Little Englanders, carrot crunchers, football hooligans, waycists and much more.
The campaign of hate aimed at rural and working class areas is coming.
I may be being naive but I did not say a remain win, just that it is more likely after these dreadful events, and being kind and generous is an attribute we should all aspire to and as was shown in spades by Jo Cox
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
This is so sad. An important exercise in democracy is going to effectively decided by one clearly insane man. Remain have won.
Oh not you too.
For goodness sake get a grip you and Sean. This loony / extremist isn't going to affect the outcome. People can obviously see he's so far off the scale that it will make no difference.
Ironically if he'd been more midstream it might have been different. But he isn't. He's out there: far right, far loopy and it will have no effect.
It is not good media coverage for leave. My wife 'gasped' on the report of his plea and is very worried about extremism. I think this terrible event and today's plea will be unsettling to a lot of voters and as far as tomorrow's Mail on Sunday's headlines are concerned they will be interesting as they are for remain. I have been of the opinion that leave had won until the combination of the assassination of Jo Cox coinciding on the same day as Farage's crass poster and now today's plea which may have tipped the scales to remain. However, not long to wait and as I have said before I will accept the will of the people and move on hopefully to a kinder narrative from all
As the guy has now started court proceedings, the case may become more low profile from Monday. With the referendum campaigns restarting tomorrow, the last few days of campaigning will be vital.
For leave the key thing is to try and be relentlessly upbeat focusing on the "take back control" message. If possible they need to persuade Farage to lay low but I can't see that being likely.
When does the verification of the postal votes take place?
I know that reporting publicly the results is illegal but IIRC at the GE last year the parties had a good early indication of how things were going??
People SAID they had good early indication of how things were going, e.g. Atul Hatwal saying postal votes indicated that things might not be as bad for SLab as polling suggested.
Do you know WHEN the verification process takes place?
I have read so many conflicting reports that I dont know who to believe.
Postal votes are verified in batches starting last week, into next week. But the process is supposed to be done to conceal the front side of the ballot papers, so any scrutineer is unlikely to see more than the occasional paper. So regard any claims of information obtained from postal vote verifications with extreme caution (as Atul's evident misinfo above confirms!).
Verification of papers from the ballot box is done as the first stage of the counting process, on Thursday night. These ballot papers are verified face up (to conceal the ballot paper ID numbers on the back) and therefore a good scrutineer will quickly get an idea of the result (I have been to eight counts for my ward and have estimated the result pretty accurately every time, before a single paper has been counted). But it is illegal to communicate any information from a count before the result is declared. That said, the information does sometimes leak out, normally via journalists who turn information received off the record from a scrutineer into some vague comment like "the mood is" or "party X is confident" etc.
Thank you thats very interesting.
I love PB-there is always someone on here who has genuine knowledge and understanding of the minutiae !!
The GT category is shaping up to be a fantastic race. Ford vs Ferrari vs Chevvy vs Porsche vs Aston Martin. The ACO overnight have imposed a 15 kg penalty on the Ford GTs because they had obviously been sandbagging at the test days and also the free practice. In qualifying they turned their turbos up and demolished the others. If they finish they will win that class. As i said earlier i would have a punt in the Toyotas winning this year overall. Audi and Porsche have not only had their issues but unlike previous years when they ran 3 cars each this year they are only running 2. As usual DYOR.
No tip. Suspect Hamilton's very likely to get pole.
My very modest wager is on Vettel gaining a podium position. The logic involved is very simple this time - he's the faster driver of the second fastest team, i.e. all things equal he should finish third, thereby delivering this bet and his odds against doing so should be around evens. In fact those nice people at Skybet (and iirc a couple of other bookies) are offering 2.75 (aka 7/4), which I therefore consider to be a value bet.
That would be a harsh response to a collection of Express front pages...
The Express is almost as bad as the Blackshirt. But the reality is that they are very successful, understanding their readership and pandering to their views. A newspaper is there to make money and that means selling copies and having online readers. The Express still has work to do but you can't fault the Daily Blackshirt for getting it's product spot on. However odious it may be
If you REALLY want a fun news story, try this from the Express.
"DOOMSDAY COMING? Full moon before summer solstice 'could spark madness and mass shootings' A FULL moon on MONDAY just before the summer solstice could bring chaos, delusional behaviour and even mass shootings, an astrologer has warned.”
You couldn’t make it up, could you? I think that would even be beyond Sean T’s imagination.
I think the point is that you CAN make it up. And that is what the Express does on a daily basis.
Your postal vote verification comment below is very useful, thank you. Do you have a link for this please? Also, is "postal vote sampling" the same as "postal vote verification"?
IanB2 said "...Postal votes are verified in batches starting last week, into next week. But the process is supposed to be done to conceal the front side of the ballot papers, so any scrutineer is unlikely to see more than the occasional paper. So regard any claims of information obtained from postal vote verifications with extreme caution (as Atul's evident misinfo above confirms!).
Verification of papers from the ballot box is done as the first stage of the counting process, on Thursday night. These ballot papers are verified face up (to conceal the ballot paper ID numbers on the back) and therefore a good scrutineer will quickly get an idea of the result (I have been to eight counts for my ward and have estimated the result pretty accurately every time, before a single paper has been counted). But it is illegal to communicate any information from a count before the result is declared. That said, the information does sometimes leak out, normally via journalists who turn information received off the record from a scrutineer into some vague comment like "the mood is" or "party X is confident" etc.
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
I think we can now assume that the eye witnesses who said he yelled 'Britain First' while committing his awful crime weren't just making it up. Nor was it all any invention of Laurie Penny, as some on here suggested.
Yes. I also suspect the authorities are already sitting on other information about other current political links of his.
If the police aren't looking at Wikileaks and old news stories the press surely will be.
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
This is so sad. An important exercise in democracy is going to effectively decided by one clearly insane man. Remain have won.
Oh not you too.
For goodness sake get a grip you and Sean. This loony / extremist isn't going to affect the outcome. People can obviously see he's so far off the scale that it will make no difference.
Ironically if he'd been more midstream it might have been different. But he isn't. He's out there: far right, far loopy and it will have no effect.
It is not good media coverage for leave. My wife 'gasped' on the report of his plea and is very worried about extremism. I think this terrible event and today's plea will be unsettling to a lot of voters and as far as tomorrow's Mail on Sunday's headlines are concerned they will be interesting as they are for remain. I have been of the opinion that leave had won until the combination of the assassination of Jo Cox coinciding on the same day as Farage's crass poster and now today's plea which may have tipped the scales to remain. However, not long to wait and as I have said before I will accept the will of the people and move on hopefully to a kinder narrative from all
You're being beyond naïve if you think a 'kinder narrative' is coming after a Remain win.
Leave supporters have been demonised as xenophobes, bigots, Little Englanders, carrot crunchers, football hooligans, waycists and much more.
The campaign of hate aimed at rural and working class areas is coming.
I may be being naive but I did not say a remain win, just that it is more likely after these dreadful events, and being kind and generous is an attribute we should all aspire to and as was shown in spades by Jo Cox
Heard a nice piece on NPR about the victims in the Orlando shootings. One victim in particular got to me. Apparently her life motto was 'be kinder than necessary'. A good update for the Golden Rule.
The tension is palpable, thick as leak and potato soup. Australia inching over the England 10m line but once again it's coughed up. Lawes goes on the charge, George kicks through, Farrell gathers and touches down! Australia mugged on the counter!
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
This is so sad. An important exercise in democracy is going to effectively decided by one clearly insane man. Remain have won.
Oh not you too.
For goodness sake get a grip you and Sean. This loony / extremist isn't going to affect the outcome. People can obviously see he's so far off the scale that it will make no difference.
Ironically if he'd been more midstream it might have been different. But he isn't. He's out there: far right, far loopy and it will have no effect.
It is not good media coverage for leave. My wife 'gasped' on the report of his plea and is very worried about extremism. I think this terrible event and today's plea will be unsettling to a lot of voters and as far as tomorrow's Mail on Sunday's headlines are concerned they will be interesting as they are for remain. I have been of the opinion that leave had won until the combination of the assassination of Jo Cox coinciding on the same day as Farage's crass poster and now today's plea which may have tipped the scales to remain. However, not long to wait and as I have said before I will accept the will of the people and move on hopefully to a kinder narrative from all
You're being beyond naïve if you think a 'kinder narrative' is coming after a Remain win.
Leave supporters have been demonised as xenophobes, bigots, Little Englanders, carrot crunchers, football hooligans, waycists and much more.
The campaign of hate aimed at rural and working class areas is coming.
I may be being naive but I did not say a remain win, just that it is more likely after these dreadful events, and being kind and generous is an attribute we should all aspire to and as was shown in spades by Jo Cox
If you want 'kind and generous' then you need a completely different ethos to society where quality of life is valued instead of the glorification of greed and consumption and the worship of the temple of 'growth'.
Until that changes we'll continue to demonise people different to ourselves to justify taking their wealth.
BBC are reporting that "Thomas Mair, charged with MP Jo Cox's murder, gives his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" to UK court”
I make no comment, draw no conclusions.
This is so sad. An important exercise in democracy is going to effectively decided by one clearly insane man. Remain have won.
Oh not you too.
For goodness sake get a grip you and Sean. This loony / extremist isn't going to affect the outcome. People can obviously see he's so far off the scale that it will make no difference.
Ironically if he'd been more midstream it might have been different. But he isn't. He's out there: far right, far loopy and it will have no effect.
It is not good media coverage for leave. My wife 'gasped' on the report of his plea and is very worried about extremism. I think this terrible event and today's plea will be unsettling to a lot of voters and as far as tomorrow's Mail on Sunday's headlines are concerned they will be interesting as they are for remain. I have been of the opinion that leave had won until the combination of the assassination of Jo Cox coinciding on the same day as Farage's crass poster and now today's plea which may have tipped the scales to remain. However, not long to wait and as I have said before I will accept the will of the people and move on hopefully to a kinder narrative from all
As the guy has now started court proceedings, the case may become more low profile from Monday. With the referendum campaigns restarting tomorrow, the last few days of campaigning will be vital.
For leave the key thing is to try and be relentlessly upbeat focusing on the "take back control" message. If possible they need to persuade Farage to lay low but I can't see that being likely.
The Wembley debate is going to be critical.
All the bods I've talked with about the referendum use the phrase "take control" - it's got into the public's shorthand for Leave. Some will vote Remain because it feels safer to them, but the message has cut through.
I think the point is that you CAN make it up. And that is what the Express does on a daily basis.
The Express is by far the worst newspaper for repetitive and idiotic headlines. House prices, the weather, Diana, Madeleine McCann, and on, and on.
I've said before, I like to read across the political spectrum with the exception of the Star and the Express. There is only so far I'm prepared to go in the pursuit of an open mind .
Remain need to address the immigrant issue over the next few days. Of course, they can never reassure the racists, but most people would be reassured by Cameron promising to solve the problems people associate with immigration. 1,000,000 for young people; flats and studios, not executive mansions. Abolish student fees for nurses, real training schemes and real apprenticeships. He'll have to dump Osbourne to do it, but greater love.....
Your postal vote verification comment below is very useful, thank you. Do you have a link for this please? Also, is "postal vote sampling" the same as "postal vote verification"?
IanB2 said "...Postal votes are verified in batches starting last week, into next week. But the process is supposed to be done to conceal the front side of the ballot papers, so any scrutineer is unlikely to see more than the occasional paper. So regard any claims of information obtained from postal vote verifications with extreme caution (as Atul's evident misinfo above confirms!).
Verification of papers from the ballot box is done as the first stage of the counting process, on Thursday night. These ballot papers are verified face up (to conceal the ballot paper ID numbers on the back) and therefore a good scrutineer will quickly get an idea of the result (I have been to eight counts for my ward and have estimated the result pretty accurately every time, before a single paper has been counted). But it is illegal to communicate any information from a count before the result is declared. That said, the information does sometimes leak out, normally via journalists who turn information received off the record from a scrutineer into some vague comment like "the mood is" or "party X is confident" etc.
Not sure what you mean by link - my comment came from experience. But the Electoral Commission website sets out the process in (great) detail, if you are interested.
I am not aware of any such thing as "postal vote sampling". The object of postal vote verification is to make sure that only one ballot paper has been returned, that it is the one issued to the voter who has completed the form and, as far as is possible, that the signature on the form matches the signature used to apply for the vote in the first place. Every vote is checked individually and, as far as they can, the way in which that vote is cast is supposed to be kept concealed.
Comments
This referendum has been marked by falsehoods, exaggerations and lack of respect for opponents. Voters aren't so much for Leave or Remain as alienated by the whole exercise. And then this happens.
I suspect their disgust could manifest itself in two ways.
1. Not bother to turn out. This would probably have a neutral effect on the result of it applies equally to soft Leave and Remain voters.
2. Stick with with the status quo. Leave and Remain positions aren't symmetrical. Leave have to make the case for change. It's more difficult to get buy in from people that are fed up
The effect is not likely to be more than a few percent.
Regardless of whether the murder affects the voting numbers, it will definitely play into the narrative following the vote if Remain wins.
It's given Remain something powerfull to cling too and they've used it well.
On Thursday morning we were asking what else Remain could throw at the campaign with Leave six points ahead. They looked bereft and lacking in momentum but Jo Cox's death changed the whole debate.
I don't blame the bignouths on the left for using it (see Alastair Campbell's twitter feed this morning) because the bigmouths on the right would've done the same if it had been an Islamist attack.
For what it is worth I am guessing that as the reality of the event sinks in a number who were going to vote Leave will simply abstain on Thursday. Might will upset the polls, although the BMG telephone poll report is surprising.
Re 459 MPs for remain. Though I am 'Eurosceptic' since Maastrict at least I have never really liked the 'political elite' generalisation. But Roger surely if the result is 50/50 ish (I still think narrow remain win) it is legitimate to ask why those that lead us are so unrepresentative of the views of the electorate as a whole.
Re the awful murder of Jo Cox MP. To even talk about it's effect makes me uneasy. Imagine for a moment this was a female relative of yours and people were using it to have spats on Twitter etc. So sickening and depressing.
Despite the fact I've yearned for this referendum I'll be glad when it's over now. The level of the campaigns on both sides has been dire with what is for me the real issue "Who governs?" rarely touched upon. I do now fear for what follows a close outcome, either way. Period of healing needed but I'm not hopeful.
Sorry, feeling a bit grim.
Maybe best not to discuss this too much, given there's a case going ahead.
Could be a fun race....
One of the supposed witnesses to the "Britain First" shout has said he didn't hear such a shout. And for all I know, he may have been misquoted or misleadingly quoted in the first place, rather than having changed his story. Trial is not by media.
Why is this - and other horrible things - happening?
What can we do to stop or reduce it?
Is the status quo the answer, or the cause of the problem?
They'll vote for change... for Leave.
Ladbrokes' markets only half there, but there's 1.57 on there being under 17.5 finishers (I suspect individual bets on certain cars not to be classified may be better value).
But that was for the euro, if we were having a vote for the euro, this murder would still mean a win for no, but we aren't.
He appears to have killed through hate, not madness.
I do hope it doesn't affect the result. The decision should be made on what people feel is in the UK's best interests.
F1 speeds and racing fir a whole day.
Dont miss it especially as the Toyotas have a real chance this year to beat the Audis and Porsches.
This came out spontaneously , and surprised me, in a coffee break discussion this morning.
Rightly or wrongly, a lot of people will suspect that this terrible event has happened now because of the Referendum (the alternative being coincidence)...and therefore without the Referendum, it might not have happened (...some people will think). Surely it is a relatively small step, for people who aren't politically engaged and not particularly convinced by either of the campaigns, to start worrying about to what sort of events an actual Leave vote might lead?
In my view, since Friday REMAIN will be happy to talk about immigration.
Events Dear Boy, Events.
I could, of course, be wrong about how wrong I am, or wrong about both those assumptions.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/azerbaijan-pre-qualifying-2016.html
No tip. Suspect Hamilton's very likely to get pole.
Anyway, I'm off. Channel 4 has qualifying and the race live this weekend, although please be aware that your intelligence may be insulted by the presence of Steve Jones.
I'll likely put the pre-race piece up this evening.
"DOOMSDAY COMING? Full moon before summer solstice 'could spark madness and mass shootings'
A FULL moon on MONDAY just before the summer solstice could bring chaos, delusional behaviour and even mass shootings, an astrologer has warned.”
You couldn’t make it up, could you? I think that would even be beyond Sean T’s imagination.
Leave supporters have been demonised as xenophobes, bigots, Little Englanders, carrot crunchers, football hooligans, waycists and much more.
The campaign of hate aimed at rural and working class areas is coming.
Cue Twitter meltdown.
* Two were either too far away or did not witness the beginning and so could not testify to the truth or otherwise of the "Britain First" cry (or variants thereof). One of those two are the person you are referring to
* Two other eyewitnesses have spoken of the cry and have not recanted, so Breitbart is busy doxxing them.
As for the purported photograph, well i have no idea whether it is him or not in the photo (it certainly looks like him IMHO), but it's difficult to dismiss it as a fake given that it was uploaded in November 2015[1]
[1] I spent some time establishing this last night: see here h ttp://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1111975/#Comment_1111975
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=123450&area=lon
(And even if someone says "yyyyyyy" in court, that in itself does not prove that they also said "yyyyyy" at around the time the time the crime was committed.)
Let us know your decision and as my old headmaster once said 'Make no decision of which Solomon might disapprove'
For leave the key thing is to try and be relentlessly upbeat focusing on the "take back control" message. If possible they need to persuade Farage to lay low but I can't see that being likely.
The Wembley debate is going to be critical.
I love PB-there is always someone on here who has genuine knowledge and understanding of the minutiae !!
The ACO overnight have imposed a 15 kg penalty on the Ford GTs because they had obviously been sandbagging at the test days and also the free practice. In qualifying they turned their turbos up and demolished the others.
If they finish they will win that class.
As i said earlier i would have a punt in the Toyotas winning this year overall. Audi and Porsche have not only had their issues but unlike previous years when they ran 3 cars each this year they are only running 2.
As usual DYOR.
DYOR.
No EURef poll though
https://m.facebook.com/MrJohnRentoul/posts/1642859039370578
Your postal vote verification comment below is very useful, thank you. Do you have a link for this please? Also, is "postal vote sampling" the same as "postal vote verification"?
IanB2 said "...Postal votes are verified in batches starting last week, into next week. But the process is supposed to be done to conceal the front side of the ballot papers, so any scrutineer is unlikely to see more than the occasional paper. So regard any claims of information obtained from postal vote verifications with extreme caution (as Atul's evident misinfo above confirms!).
Verification of papers from the ballot box is done as the first stage of the counting process, on Thursday night. These ballot papers are verified face up (to conceal the ballot paper ID numbers on the back) and therefore a good scrutineer will quickly get an idea of the result (I have been to eight counts for my ward and have estimated the result pretty accurately every time, before a single paper has been counted). But it is illegal to communicate any information from a count before the result is declared. That said, the information does sometimes leak out, normally via journalists who turn information received off the record from a scrutineer into some vague comment like "the mood is" or "party X is confident" etc.
Louise Mensch @LouiseMensch · 57s57 seconds ago
AUSEXIT
GET IN
Try (Farrell)
Australia 7-18 England
Posted at
76 mins
The tension is palpable, thick as leak and potato soup. Australia inching over the England 10m line but once again it's coughed up. Lawes goes on the charge, George kicks through, Farrell gathers and touches down! Australia mugged on the counter!
Two #EUref polls tonight: Opinium for the Observer and YouGov for the Times.
4 retweets 10 likes
Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Understand that one of them was likely to have been conducted from Thursday to Friday
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/opinion/1302272/boris-johnson-backs-david-cameron-to-stay-on-as-pm-no-matter-who-wins-referendum/
Until that changes we'll continue to demonise people different to ourselves to justify taking their wealth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUX_Ddycfj8
He'll have to dump Osbourne to do it, but greater love.....
I am not aware of any such thing as "postal vote sampling". The object of postal vote verification is to make sure that only one ballot paper has been returned, that it is the one issued to the voter who has completed the form and, as far as is possible, that the signature on the form matches the signature used to apply for the vote in the first place. Every vote is checked individually and, as far as they can, the way in which that vote is cast is supposed to be kept concealed.