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System Posts: 12,578
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EURef might be more like the AV referendum and not the Indyref

A lot of people, myself included, have often drawn comparisons between the EU referendum and the Scottish independence referendum, but perhaps the better comparison is with the AV referendum of 2011.

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  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    edited June 2016
    1st in the famous AV thread!
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited June 2016
    2nd (rate) Like AV.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Point 1 is missing a parenthesis.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited June 2016
    The AV referendum was more a 1975 EEC referendum margin of victory, ie a landslide, the latest EU ref poll from NBC has it exactly tied ie even closer than Scotland. Ironically Farage backed Yes in AV ref and Cameron No
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    edited June 2016
    kle4 said:

    Point 1 is missing a parenthesis.

    Ta, fixed it.
  • Hertsmere_Pubgoer
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Yay! After many false dawns the AV thread is amongst us.
    *retires to the saloon bar with palpitations*
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited June 2016
    SouthamObserver said:

    You know what, it's been a shitty week. Sorry if I've upset people, been rude to them or been unpleasant. I know I have been. It's not how I really am, honestly :-)

    It's time to take a chill pill. And to think before posting stuff. I wish red wine did not give me hangovers. I'd have a few glasses now.

    I'll try to be better.

    Pax.

    While I'm all for being reflective, not that you seem to have been notably unpleasant, I beseech you not to make the mistake of thinking about things before you post them - that way madness lies!
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Point 1 is missing a parenthesis.

    Ta, fixed it.
    There you have it folks, a Remainer is admitting to 'fixing' things - first step thread headers, next step elections? You heard it here first.
  • YellowSubmarine
    YellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited June 2016
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jo-cox-death-conservatives-will-not-contest-murdered-labour-mp-seat-batley-spen-thomas-mair-a7087246.html Interesting gven the most recent precident. In Eastbourne the Liberal Democrats beat the incumbents.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    If Leave do win and then effectively take over the party then the Tories lose the centre ground and power. If remain win many 'Leavers won't accept the result and the tories could split and will lose power. Who knows what will happen but I'm not convinced the Tories will win in 2020
    [or before] and given the current alternatives that is pretty piss poor for the country.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    YellowSubmarine said:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jo-cox-death-conservatives-will-not-contest-murdered-labour-mp-seat-batley-spen-thomas-mair-a7087246.html Interesting gven the most recent president. In Eastbourne the Liberal Democrats beat the incumbents.

    In some ways, losing Eastbourne after Ian Gows murder was the beginning of the end for the Blessed Margaret...
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    felix said:

    If Leave do win and then effectively take over the party then the Tories lose the centre ground and power. If remain win many 'Leavers won't accept the result and the tories could split and will lose power. Who knows what will happen but I'm not convinced the Tories will win in 2020
    [or before] and given the current alternatives that is pretty piss poor for the country.

    If it is Leave and Kipper Tory v Corbyn/Mcdonnell that would be a return to politics circa 1980-1983, neither would command the centre ground which would perhaps give a boost to the LDs who would have to ditch their pro EU stance in a post EU UK. If it is a close Remain then Hammond or May most likely succeed Cameron and should lead the largest party in 2020, though with significant seat losses thanks to a resurgent UKIP
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    felix said:

    If Leave do win and then effectively take over the party then the Tories lose the centre ground and power. If remain win many 'Leavers won't accept the result and the tories could split and will lose power. Who knows what will happen but I'm not convinced the Tories will win in 2020
    [or before] and given the current alternatives that is pretty piss poor for the country.

    It depends what you mean by the centre ground. All the likely candidates for succession from the Leave side seem to be fairly centrist socially ( with the exception of Patel and her views on capital punishment). Fiscally they are dry and they would carry with them the overwhelming majority of the Parliamentary party as there are very few real headbanger Europhiles on the back benches.

    A Leave result would also remove a large portion of the UKIP support.

    I can easily see a Tory party winning in 2020 off the back of a Leave victory.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @felix


    'If Leave do win and then effectively take over the party then the Tories lose the centre ground and power. If remain win many 'Leavers won't accept the result and the tories could split and will lose power.'


    Can't see a problem for the Tories in the event that Leave loses provided that Cameron is replaced by a Leave leader.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    On topic, I don't think the EuroRef is much like the AVRef at its core, even if certain aspects have manifested the same way. Although even many Yessers in the AV were arguing on the basis it wasn't perfect but better than the alternative, it was still a battle against apathy more than dislike. While people did not rate the EU specifically as a prime concern, in general, there was a serious strain of dislike for it, whereas neither option stirred as much emotion regarding AV.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    felix said:

    If Leave do win and then effectively take over the party then the Tories lose the centre ground and power. If remain win many 'Leavers won't accept the result and the tories could split and will lose power. Who knows what will happen but I'm not convinced the Tories will win in 2020
    [or before] and given the current alternatives that is pretty piss poor for the country.

    It depends what you mean by the centre ground.
    People who agree with me.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Boulton: campaigning suspended for tomorrow also...
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    john_zims said:

    @felix
    Can't see a problem for the Tories in the event that Leave loses provided that Cameron is replaced by a Leave leader.

    That seems wildly optimistic to me, in the vein of those who thought the Tories would remain civil during this campaign. The wrong type of leaver could cause significant problems, as some will be seeing this as the chance to ditch the Cameroon project, and others will want to maintain it in every way but for the Leaving part.
  • Blueberry
    Blueberry Posts: 408
    There are certainly correlations between those areas that voted Yes to AV and those that will vote to Remain in the EU.

    Voted Yes to AV in 2011
    Cambridge
    Camden
    Islington
    Lambeth
    Southwark
    Oxford
    Edinburgh Central
    Glasgow Kelvin

    Labrokes book on highest Remain in the EU vote
    Edinburgh 9/4
    Hackney 7/2
    Southwark 5/1
    Islington 6/1
    Cambridge 7/1

    Can't quite put my finger on what they have in common.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,684
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    If Leave do win and then effectively take over the party then the Tories lose the centre ground and power. If remain win many 'Leavers won't accept the result and the tories could split and will lose power. Who knows what will happen but I'm not convinced the Tories will win in 2020
    [or before] and given the current alternatives that is pretty piss poor for the country.

    If it is Leave and Kipper Tory v Corbyn/Mcdonnell that would be a return to politics circa 1980-1983, neither would command the centre ground which would perhaps give a boost to the LDs who would have to ditch their pro EU stance in a post EU UK. If it is a close Remain then Hammond or May most likely succeed Cameron and should lead the largest party in 2020, though with significant seat losses thanks to a resurgent UKIP
    Vote Leave: give the Lib Dems a chance.
  • welshowl
    welshowl Posts: 4,464
    Blueberry said:

    There are certainly correlations between those areas that voted Yes to AV and those that will vote to Remain in the EU.

    Voted Yes to AV in 2011
    Cambridge
    Camden
    Islington
    Lambeth
    Southwark
    Oxford
    Edinburgh Central
    Glasgow Kelvin

    Labrokes book on highest Remain in the EU vote
    Edinburgh 9/4
    Hackney 7/2
    Southwark 5/1
    Islington 6/1
    Cambridge 7/1

    Can't quite put my finger on what they have in common.

    Focaccia
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,684
    BBC "Police probe right-wing links to MP's killing"

    Not even bothering to say extremism on the headline:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-36560895
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @kle4


    'That seems wildly optimistic to me, in the vein of those who thought the Tories would remain civil during this campaign. The wrong type of leaver could cause significant problems, as some will be seeing this as the chance to ditch the Cameroon project, and others will want to maintain it in every way but for the Leaving part.'


    During the past 12 months am not exactly sure what the Cameroon project is,other than bringing forward proposals and at the first sign of trouble ditching them.

    A Leave leader would be a reminder to Junker & co that if they want to ram an EU army et al down our throats then we can play the EU game & have another referendum.

  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Casino_Royale said:

    BBC "Police probe right-wing links to MP's killing"

    Not even bothering to say extremism on the headline:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-36560895

    Stroke of genius by Remain to suspend campaigning for several days. The news stations and print media will be giving interview after interview to politicians who can make all sorts of claims. Meanwhile Leave are unable to start up the campaign for fear of being branded insensitive.
  • dodrade
    dodrade Posts: 597
    YellowSubmarine said:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jo-cox-death-conservatives-will-not-contest-murdered-labour-mp-seat-batley-spen-thomas-mair-a7087246.html Interesting gven the most recent precident. In Eastbourne the Liberal Democrats beat the incumbents.

    South Belfast was also contested after the murder of Robert Bradford and Abingdon after Airey Neave's death (although the latter was killed just before the 1979 election so no by-election was held).

    I'm not sure the best response to an "attack on democracy" is effectively to suspend it. Of course Labour would easily retain the seat but there ought to be a contest so the new MP has a mandate rather than simply be gifted the seat.
  • midwinter
    midwinter Posts: 1,112
    MP_SE said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    BBC "Police probe right-wing links to MP's killing"

    Not even bothering to say extremism on the headline:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-36560895

    Stroke of genius by Remain to suspend campaigning for several days. The news stations and print media will be giving interview after interview to politicians who can make all sorts of claims. Meanwhile Leave are unable to start up the campaign for fear of being branded insensitive.
    Aren't most of the print media in favour of leaving?
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    If Leave do win and then effectively take over the party then the Tories lose the centre ground and power. If remain win many 'Leavers won't accept the result and the tories could split and will lose power. Who knows what will happen but I'm not convinced the Tories will win in 2020
    [or before] and given the current alternatives that is pretty piss poor for the country.

    If it is Leave and Kipper Tory v Corbyn/Mcdonnell that would be a return to politics circa 1980-1983, neither would command the centre ground which would perhaps give a boost to the LDs who would have to ditch their pro EU stance in a post EU UK. If it is a close Remain then Hammond or May most likely succeed Cameron and should lead the largest party in 2020, though with significant seat losses thanks to a resurgent UKIP
    What resurgent UKIP ? There is a bye election next month in a Cornwall CC UKIP held seat , they have already lost it as they are not even standing a candidate . They are withering away .
  • Blueberry
    Blueberry Posts: 408
    There's an Old Holborn tweet that purports to show the killer standing behind a Britain First banner. Does look like him. Must say, I don't remember feeling so angry about what someone's done. I'm also glad Leave has people as articulate as Hannan, Gove etc and look forward to them being able to speak soon.
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    Question on the linking of aspects of the Leave campaign (particularly Farage's poster and comments about "violence is the next step") and the death of Jo Cox.

    Presumably if it had not happened then few would disagree that it would be legitimate to publicly criticise the tone of the campaign and make inferences that such campaigning has the potential to stoke tensions and lead to unfortunate consequences.

    Why then when the fears of what could occur actually crystallize into dreadful reality does such criticism suddenly cease to be legitimate?
  • No_Offence_Alan
    No_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,118
    Richard_Tyndall said:


    I can easily see a Tory party winning in 2020 off the back of a Leave victory.

    Unless, of course, the Remainers are correct in their prediction that Brexit fecks the UK economy.
    In which case things that politics used to be about such as inflation, unemployment and interest rates make a comeback, Leave get the blame and we get PM Corbyn.


  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @MP_SE


    'Stroke of genius by Remain to suspend campaigning for several days. The news stations and print media will be giving interview after interview to politicians who can make all sorts of claims. Meanwhile Leave are unable to start up the campaign for fear of being branded insensitive.'


    On the other hand it keeps Carney, Osborne & project fear off the media and anyway half the country is switched off enjoying the football.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,684
    https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/743880850836721664

    Massive call by JP Morgan if true.

    There's another 6 days to go.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    john_zims said:



    During the past 12 months am not exactly sure what the Cameroon project is,other than bringing forward proposals and at the first sign of trouble ditching them.

    A Leave leader would be a reminder to Junker & co that if they want to ram an EU army et al down our throats then we can play the EU game & have another referendum.

    Those two statements look entirely unconnected to me. One of the problems of the last 12 months was the Tories have a very small majority and a small group of dissenters could cause big trouble, not helped by Cameron and Osborne having a pretty crap year, tactically.

    But that problem doesn't go away with a Leave leader. There may be some confusion over exactly what the Cameroon project is or was, but there were people implacably opposed to it nevertheless, and if a Leave leader doesn't play ball with people of the same ilk and do exactly what they want, then the government will be just as weak as it was before.

    I genuinely hope whoever takes over proves competent, but it is a real worry that, given I do accept there will negative consequences to Leaving, we might well have an even crapper government.
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    edited June 2016
    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/743880850836721664

    Massive call by JP Morgan if true.

    There's another 6 days to go.

    Does that mean they're paying out early like Paddy Power or trying to manipulate the markets like a bunch of merchant bankers?
  • PAW
    PAW Posts: 1,074
    Are there any polls next week?
  • NoEasyDay
    NoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Point 2. Has made my day, the funniest thing since Fawlty toowers. It only goes to to show there are lies. Damned lis, and morons that vote Lib De.
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    Blueberry said:

    There's an Old Holborn tweet that purports to show the killer standing behind a Britain First banner. Does look like him. Must say, I don't remember feeling so angry about what someone's done. I'm also glad Leave has people as articulate as Hannan, Gove etc and look forward to them being able to speak soon.

    At the start of the referendum campaign, there was a large argument over which of the two shadow organisations should take on the mantle of the "official" leave campaign. The feeling was that the UKIP inspired campaign would concentrate too much on immigration and appeal to the base instincts of the electorate in a way that would be unfortunate for the debate and potentially bad for the Leave cause. And yet as the referendum reached its later stages all these early thoughts were out of the window as the official campaign decided that the route to victory was to effectively co-opt the campaign that they had earlier been so keen to disassociate with. They've made their bed they now have to lie in it.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,714
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    If Leave do win and then effectively take over the party then the Tories lose the centre ground and power. If remain win many 'Leavers won't accept the result and the tories could split and will lose power. Who knows what will happen but I'm not convinced the Tories will win in 2020
    [or before] and given the current alternatives that is pretty piss poor for the country.

    If it is Leave and Kipper Tory v Corbyn/Mcdonnell that would be a return to politics circa 1980-1983, neither would command the centre ground which would perhaps give a boost to the LDs who would have to ditch their pro EU stance in a post EU UK. If it is a close Remain then Hammond or May most likely succeed Cameron and should lead the largest party in 2020, though with significant seat losses thanks to a resurgent UKIP
    I actually think the biggest beneficiaries of a Leave vote would be the libdems.
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:


    I can easily see a Tory party winning in 2020 off the back of a Leave victory.

    Unless, of course, the Remainers are correct in their prediction that Brexit fecks the UK economy.
    In which case things that politics used to be about such as inflation, unemployment and interest rates make a comeback, Leave get the blame and we get PM Corbyn.


    No, if the actual remain forecasts are 100% correct there will actually be little pain. If the over exaggeration economic collapse are correct then you may be right.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,684
    BenedictWhite said:

    Casino_Royale said:



    Massive call by JP Morgan if true.

    There's another 6 days to go.

    Does that mean they're paying out early like Paddy Power or trying to manipulate the markets like a bunch of merchant bankers?
    I'm just reporting what Guido is. We know Guido hasn't been 100% correct in the past.

    And I trust JP Morgan's analysis on Brexit winning as much as I trust their forecasts of what would happen to them the UK economy, if we Leave.

    But, nevertheless, it is interesting.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    If Leave do win and then effectively take over the party then the Tories lose the centre ground and power. If remain win many 'Leavers won't accept the result and the tories could split and will lose power. Who knows what will happen but I'm not convinced the Tories will win in 2020
    [or before] and given the current alternatives that is pretty piss poor for the country.

    If it is Leave and Kipper Tory v Corbyn/Mcdonnell that would be a return to politics circa 1980-1983, neither would command the centre ground which would perhaps give a boost to the LDs who would have to ditch their pro EU stance in a post EU UK. If it is a close Remain then Hammond or May most likely succeed Cameron and should lead the largest party in 2020, though with significant seat losses thanks to a resurgent UKIP
    I actually think the biggest beneficiaries of a Leave vote would be the libdems.
    It seems like the situation would be tailor made for a LD recovery, but the fact they are still invisible or even going backwards makes me think even with the most beneficial environment they will not manage it.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,684
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    If Leave do win and then effectively take over the party then the Tories lose the centre ground and power. If remain win many 'Leavers won't accept the result and the tories could split and will lose power. Who knows what will happen but I'm not convinced the Tories will win in 2020
    [or before] and given the current alternatives that is pretty piss poor for the country.

    If it is Leave and Kipper Tory v Corbyn/Mcdonnell that would be a return to politics circa 1980-1983, neither would command the centre ground which would perhaps give a boost to the LDs who would have to ditch their pro EU stance in a post EU UK. If it is a close Remain then Hammond or May most likely succeed Cameron and should lead the largest party in 2020, though with significant seat losses thanks to a resurgent UKIP
    I actually think the biggest beneficiaries of a Leave vote would be the libdems.
    Have you canvassed your Dad on this basis?
  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    Good evening all. Can report that the Northern branch of my family have voted 9:1 Exit:Remain. Have agreed to promote single errant nephew to new status of 'Family Black Sheep'. Wills changed accordingly ;).
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,714
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    If Leave do win and then effectively take over the party then the Tories lose the centre ground and power. If remain win many 'Leavers won't accept the result and the tories could split and will lose power. Who knows what will happen but I'm not convinced the Tories will win in 2020
    [or before] and given the current alternatives that is pretty piss poor for the country.

    If it is Leave and Kipper Tory v Corbyn/Mcdonnell that would be a return to politics circa 1980-1983, neither would command the centre ground which would perhaps give a boost to the LDs who would have to ditch their pro EU stance in a post EU UK. If it is a close Remain then Hammond or May most likely succeed Cameron and should lead the largest party in 2020, though with significant seat losses thanks to a resurgent UKIP
    I actually think the biggest beneficiaries of a Leave vote would be the libdems.
    It seems like the situation would be tailor made for a LD recovery, but the fact they are still invisible or even going backwards makes me think even with the most beneficial environment they will not manage it.
    Post a Leave vote, the world will change
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    john_zims said:

    @kle4


    'That seems wildly optimistic to me, in the vein of those who thought the Tories would remain civil during this campaign. The wrong type of leaver could cause significant problems, as some will be seeing this as the chance to ditch the Cameroon project, and others will want to maintain it in every way but for the Leaving part.'


    During the past 12 months am not exactly sure what the Cameroon project is,other than bringing forward proposals and at the first sign of trouble ditching them.

    A Leave leader would be a reminder to Junker & co that if they want to ram an EU army et al down our throats then we can play the EU game & have another referendum.

    If we Remain in I don't want a Leave leader. There is a huge amount of shit coming our way as a country from the EU and I want a Remainder to be right there to take the full brunt of it as they deserve. After they are driven from office in 2020 we can think about getting someone worthy of leading a party again.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,684
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:


    I can easily see a Tory party winning in 2020 off the back of a Leave victory.

    Unless, of course, the Remainers are correct in their prediction that Brexit fecks the UK economy.
    In which case things that politics used to be about such as inflation, unemployment and interest rates make a comeback, Leave get the blame and we get PM Corbyn.


    Which they aren't. The economic doom is being turned up to 11 because that's all Remain have.
  • perdix
    perdix Posts: 1,806
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:


    I can easily see a Tory party winning in 2020 off the back of a Leave victory.

    Unless, of course, the Remainers are correct in their prediction that Brexit fecks the UK economy.
    In which case things that politics used to be about such as inflation, unemployment and interest rates make a comeback, Leave get the blame and we get PM Corbyn.


    It's quite ironic that commentators say that the economic arguments for Remain are not gaining traction and that people are more worried about immigration. If Leave wins immigration will not fall quickly because new legislation and systems will be needed but if the economy tanks Leave will get the blame but more likely the Tory government will get the blame and yes we might get Corbyn as PM. Be careful what you vote for!

  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Casino_Royale said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    Casino_Royale said:



    Massive call by JP Morgan if true.

    There's another 6 days to go.

    Does that mean they're paying out early like Paddy Power or trying to manipulate the markets like a bunch of merchant bankers?
    I'm just reporting what Guido is. We know Guido hasn't been 100% correct in the past.

    And I trust JP Morgan's analysis on Brexit winning as much as I trust their forecasts of what would happen to them the UK economy, if we Leave.

    But, nevertheless, it is interesting.
    I grant you it's interesting but I reserve the right to mock JP Morgan... :)
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    SeanT said:

    Jesus fucking Christ. The food here at the Praia art resort, in Calabria. Fucking amazing. Just.. Fucking amazing. Fuck.

    I'm a bitter, jaded old travel hack used to luxuries but.... Fuck.

    So you'll be giving them a good review then?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,714
    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/743880850836721664

    Massive call by JP Morgan if true.

    There's another 6 days to go.

    Trust me, JP Morgan will have another bunch of analysts predicting a Remain win. Investment banks are experts at being on every side of the fence.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    SeanT said:

    Jesus fucking Christ. The food here at the Praia art resort, in Calabria. Fucking amazing. Just.. Fucking amazing. Fuck.

    I'm a bitter, jaded old travel hack used to luxuries but.... Fuck.

    If I saw a place advertised with that as a quote, I would certainly be intrigued.
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Casino_Royale said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:


    I can easily see a Tory party winning in 2020 off the back of a Leave victory.

    Unless, of course, the Remainers are correct in their prediction that Brexit fecks the UK economy.
    In which case things that politics used to be about such as inflation, unemployment and interest rates make a comeback, Leave get the blame and we get PM Corbyn.


    Which they aren't. The economic doom is being turned up to 11 because that's all Remain have.
    B*llocks. It's been turned up to 15 and the knobs broken off!
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    john_zims said:

    @kle4


    'That seems wildly optimistic to me, in the vein of those who thought the Tories would remain civil during this campaign. The wrong type of leaver could cause significant problems, as some will be seeing this as the chance to ditch the Cameroon project, and others will want to maintain it in every way but for the Leaving part.'


    During the past 12 months am not exactly sure what the Cameroon project is,other than bringing forward proposals and at the first sign of trouble ditching them.

    A Leave leader would be a reminder to Junker & co that if they want to ram an EU army et al down our throats then we can play the EU game & have another referendum.

    If we Remain in I don't want a Leave leader. There is a huge amount of shit coming our way as a country from the EU and I want a Remainder to be right there to take the full brunt of it as they deserve. After they are driven from office in 2020 we can think about getting someone worthy of leading a party again.
    I find it quite amusing that Remainers repeatedly say that they would like to put the EU referendum behind them and move on. No, they need to be held fully accountable for their decision.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    If Leave do win and then effectively take over the party then the Tories lose the centre ground and power. If remain win many 'Leavers won't accept the result and the tories could split and will lose power. Who knows what will happen but I'm not convinced the Tories will win in 2020
    [or before] and given the current alternatives that is pretty piss poor for the country.

    If it is Leave and Kipper Tory v Corbyn/Mcdonnell that would be a return to politics circa 1980-1983, neither would command the centre ground which would perhaps give a boost to the LDs who would have to ditch their pro EU stance in a post EU UK. If it is a close Remain then Hammond or May most likely succeed Cameron and should lead the largest party in 2020, though with significant seat losses thanks to a resurgent UKIP
    What resurgent UKIP ? There is a bye election next month in a Cornwall CC UKIP held seat , they have already lost it as they are not even standing a candidate . They are withering away .
    If Leave win they are a pointless party. If Remain win then they will be reinvigorated - not least because there is a reasonable chance they will finally and permanently dump Farage.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,714
    SeanT said:

    Jesus fucking Christ. The food here at the Praia art resort, in Calabria. Fucking amazing. Just.. Fucking amazing. Fuck.

    I'm a bitter, jaded old travel hack used to luxuries but.... Fuck.

    Child friendly?
  • RochdalePioneers
    RochdalePioneers Posts: 30,611
    Labour national campaign is shut down through until Monday. Limited local campaigning (leafleting basically) resumes Sunday afternoon.

    TBH I think the Labour campaign is probably done. With tributes in the commons Monday afternoon they won't be doing anything, that only leaves the last 2 days. I argued our best strategy would be to not cause, Paignton, am appalled that it's taken the brutal murder of an MP by that "man" to bring it about
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    perdix said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:


    I can easily see a Tory party winning in 2020 off the back of a Leave victory.

    Unless, of course, the Remainers are correct in their prediction that Brexit fecks the UK economy.
    In which case things that politics used to be about such as inflation, unemployment and interest rates make a comeback, Leave get the blame and we get PM Corbyn.


    It's quite ironic that commentators say that the economic arguments for Remain are not gaining traction and that people are more worried about immigration. If Leave wins immigration will not fall quickly because new legislation and systems will be needed but if the economy tanks Leave will get the blame but more likely the Tory government will get the blame and yes we might get Corbyn as PM. Be careful what you vote for!

    If we vote Remain then we deserve Corbyn.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,684
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    If Leave do win and then effectively take over the party then the Tories lose the centre ground and power. If remain win many 'Leavers won't accept the result and the tories could split and will lose power. Who knows what will happen but I'm not convinced the Tories will win in 2020
    [or before] and given the current alternatives that is pretty piss poor for the country.

    If it is Leave and Kipper Tory v Corbyn/Mcdonnell that would be a return to politics circa 1980-1983, neither would command the centre ground which would perhaps give a boost to the LDs who would have to ditch their pro EU stance in a post EU UK. If it is a close Remain then Hammond or May most likely succeed Cameron and should lead the largest party in 2020, though with significant seat losses thanks to a resurgent UKIP
    What resurgent UKIP ? There is a bye election next month in a Cornwall CC UKIP held seat , they have already lost it as they are not even standing a candidate . They are withering away .
    If Leave win they are a pointless party. If Remain win then they will be reinvigorated - not least because there is a reasonable chance they will finally and permanently dump Farage.
    So many reasons to vote Leave: end of Farage, rise of a decent Liberal party from the grave, escaping further EU integration and retaking control of our laws.

    What's not to like?
  • NoEasyDay
    NoEasyDay Posts: 454
    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/743880850836721664

    Massive call by JP Morgan if true.

    There's another 6 days to go.

    Trust me, JP Morgan will have another bunch of analysts predicting a Remain win. Investment banks are experts at being on every side of the fence.
    I wouldn't be betting on JP morgan.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Oh yes the pound is falling.
    http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h

    http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=12h
    NOT (At time of posting)
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/743880850836721664

    Massive call by JP Morgan if true.

    There's another 6 days to go.

    Trust me, JP Morgan will have another bunch of analysts predicting a Remain win. Investment banks are experts at being on every side of the fence.
    The interesting thing is that both the pound and FTSE 100 are up on the day and the former up in out of hours trading.

    Where is @Scot_P when you need him to tell you the markets are going to hell in a hand cart?
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,684
    edited June 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:



    Massive call by JP Morgan if true.

    There's another 6 days to go.

    Trust me, JP Morgan will have another bunch of analysts predicting a Remain win. Investment banks are experts at being on every side of the fence.
    Thanks. To be ignored then.

    Edit: although that answer does show why we should also ignore prophecies of armageddon
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    SeanT said:

    Jesus fucking Christ. The food here at the Praia art resort, in Calabria. Fucking amazing. Just.. Fucking amazing. Fuck.

    I'm a bitter, jaded old travel hack used to luxuries but.... Fuck.

    Re your agent who is terrified of having to live in a semi in Watford.

    Has she ever expressed any empathy towards people who live in a semi in Watford ?

    If not then why should they be concerned about her ?
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    SeanT said:

    Jesus fucking Christ. The food here at the Praia art resort, in Calabria. Fucking amazing. Just.. Fucking amazing. Fuck.

    I'm a bitter, jaded old travel hack used to luxuries but.... Fuck.

    Enough of that bullshit! What I want to know is, are you still voting for Leave, or are you leaving us because you are really jelly where muscle would normally be?
  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    perdix said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:


    I can easily see a Tory party winning in 2020 off the back of a Leave victory.

    Unless, of course, the Remainers are correct in their prediction that Brexit fecks the UK economy.
    In which case things that politics used to be about such as inflation, unemployment and interest rates make a comeback, Leave get the blame and we get PM Corbyn.


    It's quite ironic that commentators say that the economic arguments for Remain are not gaining traction and that people are more worried about immigration. If Leave wins immigration will not fall quickly because new legislation and systems will be needed but if the economy tanks Leave will get the blame but more likely the Tory government will get the blame and yes we might get Corbyn as PM. Be careful what you vote for!

    Can we take a slightly longer view. Assume you're correct and we have a Corbyn-led administration. Let's further assume that he does a terrible job (if he does a good job, then - carry on, Comrade). What will happen in 2025?

    Since 1948 we have quadrupled gdp per capita in this country. Even the most pessimistic of the IFS models talks about lower absolute growth upon Brexit. Not an actual sustained decline. I think most commentators expect market turmoil, and a likely recession. But we've had those before, under considerably worse circumstances (e.g. 1980/1).
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Jesus fucking Christ. The food here at the Praia art resort, in Calabria. Fucking amazing. Just.. Fucking amazing. Fuck.

    I'm a bitter, jaded old travel hack used to luxuries but.... Fuck.

    Child friendly?
    Only when SeantT isn't there. :D
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    If Leave do win and then effectively take over the party then the Tories lose the centre ground and power. If remain win many 'Leavers won't accept the result and the tories could split and will lose power. Who knows what will happen but I'm not convinced the Tories will win in 2020
    [or before] and given the current alternatives that is pretty piss poor for the country.

    If it is Leave and Kipper Tory v Corbyn/Mcdonnell that would be a return to politics circa 1980-1983, neither would command the centre ground which would perhaps give a boost to the LDs who would have to ditch their pro EU stance in a post EU UK. If it is a close Remain then Hammond or May most likely succeed Cameron and should lead the largest party in 2020, though with significant seat losses thanks to a resurgent UKIP
    What resurgent UKIP ? There is a bye election next month in a Cornwall CC UKIP held seat , they have already lost it as they are not even standing a candidate . They are withering away .
    If Leave win they are a pointless party. If Remain win then they will be reinvigorated - not least because there is a reasonable chance they will finally and permanently dump Farage.
    So many reasons to vote Leave: end of Farage, rise of a decent Liberal party from the grave, escaping further EU integration and retaking control of our laws.

    What's not to like?
    I agree. A proper Liberal party stripped of its Europhilia and campaigning on the basis of civil liberties and accountable governance would be well worth voting for.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @rcs1000

    'I actually think the biggest beneficiaries of a Leave vote would be the libdems.'


    Too much baggage.

  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    If Leave do win and then effectively take over the party then the Tories lose the centre ground and power. If remain win many 'Leavers won't accept the result and the tories could split and will lose power. Who knows what will happen but I'm not convinced the Tories will win in 2020
    [or before] and given the current alternatives that is pretty piss poor for the country.

    If it is Leave and Kipper Tory v Corbyn/Mcdonnell that would be a return to politics circa 1980-1983, neither would command the centre ground which would perhaps give a boost to the LDs who would have to ditch their pro EU stance in a post EU UK. If it is a close Remain then Hammond or May most likely succeed Cameron and should lead the largest party in 2020, though with significant seat losses thanks to a resurgent UKIP
    What resurgent UKIP ? There is a bye election next month in a Cornwall CC UKIP held seat , they have already lost it as they are not even standing a candidate . They are withering away .
    If Leave win they are a pointless party. If Remain win then they will be reinvigorated - not least because there is a reasonable chance they will finally and permanently dump Farage.
    So many reasons to vote Leave: end of Farage, rise of a decent Liberal party from the grave, escaping further EU integration and retaking control of our laws.

    What's not to like?
    I agree. A proper Liberal party stripped of its Europhilia and campaigning on the basis of civil liberties and accountable governance would be well worth voting for.
    I would vote for them.
  • SirBenjamin
    SirBenjamin Posts: 238
    "I’m sure the undoubted merits of AV would have ensured a triumph for Yes2AV."

    Biggest laugh I've had all day.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    john_zims said:


    Too much baggage.

    Perhaps the Liberal Party could make a come back, they're still kicking around (but are not the TRUE Liberal Party, before a LD jumps down my throat).
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:



    Massive call by JP Morgan if true.

    There's another 6 days to go.

    Trust me, JP Morgan will have another bunch of analysts predicting a Remain win. Investment banks are experts at being on every side of the fence.
    Thanks. To be ignored then.

    Edit: although that answer does show why we should also ignore prophecies of armageddon
    Could even be trying to guage market sentiment by planting rumours - not that such a large and reputable company would ever consider doing that in reallife.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    The 'cancel the referendum' petition map does have some similarities with the AV result:

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=123450&area=lon

    Notice the difference between the 'trendy' Labour areas and the 'ethnic' Labour areas:

    Hackney N 178
    Hornsey 159
    ..
    Barking 4
    Hayes 0

    Likewise outside London the difference between 'trendy' Labour and wwc Labour:

    Bristol W 140
    Brighton P 123
    ..
    Redcar 0
    Doncaster N 0

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=123450&area=eng
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Or maybe the time has come for the Literal Democrats
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    weejonnie said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:



    Massive call by JP Morgan if true.

    There's another 6 days to go.

    Trust me, JP Morgan will have another bunch of analysts predicting a Remain win. Investment banks are experts at being on every side of the fence.
    Thanks. To be ignored then.

    Edit: although that answer does show why we should also ignore prophecies of armageddon
    Could even be trying to guage market sentiment by planting rumours - not that such a large and reputable company would ever consider doing that in reallife.
    Very true. I'm not sure they are that reputable.
  • YellowSubmarine
    YellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited June 2016
    Remain solves nothing as Leave will just be more enraged at having the death at the centre of their cultural grief reenacted. Leave solves nothing because the immigration focus takes EEA membership off the table. But many Leavers want EEA membership and defeated Remainders will row in behind them. But deep than that the polling suggests this is all largely driven by socio economic factors. What strikes me from the polling is ( A) none of those factors are going away. (B) most of those factors are bugger all to do with EU membership. So leaving or remaining won't resolve the issue. Too many variables to predict much in my view.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Taking a look back at the glorious days of AV, I'm curious if there have been converts either way since then, if people have abandoned AV for FPTP or vice versa, if the PR brigade have grown in strength, if AV+ has fans, whatever happened to PR squared, and so on. I'd rather hoped such talk would be back on the table for a constitutional convention, one of the good ideas Ed M had, but sadly not.
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    This was D Cameron earlier. "Where we see hatred, where we see division, where we see intolerance we must drive it out of our public life and politics."

    Well, were I his mother I'd be asking for the money spent on his education back. And this is meant to be a star pupil at Oxford. Give me strength.

    We must drive "division" out of our politics.

    What the hell does the cretin think politics is? Division is the essence of it. How power is divided. How countries and classes are divided. The division between the rich and the poor. The division between labour and capital. The division between Labour and the Conservatives. The division between worker and owner. The division between town and country. The division between the property owner and the renter.

    You can't drive it out. You have to manage it. There are, always have been and always will be competing interests in any group that numbers more than 1. You learn to manage those and sometimes, quite often, in fact, you have to choose.

    This is just mush and drivel.

    And as for hatred, sure hatred is not a nice emotion. But it can be quite a useful emotion. Hatred of the poverty in Victorian Britain was what drove some of those who worked hard to alleviate it. Unless someone incites violence they can hate away. I don't think much of people who shout "Tory scum" at people attending conferences but they're free to do it and I'd rather have that sort of abuse than seek to drive it out of public life.

    As for intolerance, what does that even mean in this context? I'm pretty intolerant of those who seek to undermine free speech. Is that sort of intolerance meant to be driven out of public life?




  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    another_richard said:

    The 'cancel the referendum' petition map does have some similarities with the AV result:

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=123450&area=lon

    Notice the difference between the 'trendy' Labour areas and the 'ethnic' Labour areas:

    Hackney N 178
    Hornsey 159
    ..
    Barking 4
    Hayes 0

    Likewise outside London the difference between 'trendy' Labour and wwc Labour:

    Bristol W 140
    Brighton P 123
    ..
    Redcar 0
    Doncaster N 0

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=123450&area=eng

    Frankly that is really interesting. Just wow. What a tool!
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    PAW said:

    Are there any polls next week?

    Of course...
  • stodge
    stodge Posts: 14,906
    Evening all :)

    As this Lib Dem (along with a small but significant minority) will be voting LEAVE, I'm not sure all the sad old stereotypes of LDs being Europhiles has anything other than trolling value.

    It's also worth reminding some on here Nick Clegg might have supported AV but it has never been Lib Dem policy and I voted NO as did, I suspect, a number of LDs.

    Back to more immediate matters, out walking with Mrs Stodge this evening and discussing the EU Referendum (she's a LEAVE supporter too which helps domestic harmony no end). It occurred to me that in trying to finally put an end to a question which has afflicted the Conservative Party for 30 years, David Cameron unwittingly raised a question which has bothered many in Britain for sixty years.

    A referendum on the EU has been replaced by a referendum on immigration.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Cyclefree said:

    This was D Cameron earlier. "Where we see hatred, where we see division, where we see intolerance we must drive it out of our public life and politics."

    Well, were I his mother I'd be asking for the money spent on his education back. And this is meant to be a star pupil at Oxford. Give me strength.

    We must drive "division" out of our politics.

    What the hell does the cretin think politics is? Division is the essence of it. How power is divided. How countries and classes are divided. The division between the rich and the poor. The division between labour and capital. The division between Labour and the Conservatives. The division between worker and owner. The division between town and country. The division between the property owner and the renter.

    You can't drive it out. You have to manage it. There are, always have been and always will be competing interests in any group that numbers more than 1. You learn to manage those and sometimes, quite often, in fact, you have to choose.

    This is just mush and drivel.

    And as for hatred, sure hatred is not a nice emotion. But it can be quite a useful emotion. Hatred of the poverty in Victorian Britain was what drove some of those who worked hard to alleviate it. Unless someone incites violence they can hate away. I don't think much of people who shout "Tory scum" at people attending conferences but they're free to do it and I'd rather have that sort of abuse than seek to drive it out of public life.

    As for intolerance, what does that even mean in this context? I'm pretty intolerant of those who seek to undermine free speech. Is that sort of intolerance meant to be driven out of public life?




    While I broadly agree with you, it was just a bland platitude, not a statement of intent, I'm sure.
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    YellowSubmarine said:

    Remain solves nothing as Leave will just be more enraged at having the death at the centre of their cultural grief reenacted. Leave solves nothing because the immigration focus takes EEA membership off the table. But many Leavers want EEA membership and defeated Remainders will row in behind them. But deep than that the polling suggests this is all largely driven by socio economic factors. What strikes me from the polling is ( A) none of those factors are going away. (B) most of those factors are bugger all to do with EU membership. So leaving or remaining won't resolve the issue. Too many variables to predict much in my view.

    Actually as has been pointed out the EEA option does allow us to control immigration even within the rules of free movement of people in ways that being in the EU does not.

    Also presumably we can get our fishing back. In those circumstances we could see a reinvigoration of industry in our fishing ports. That would be good as that will also help with the balance of payments.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,684
    YellowSubmarine said:

    Remain solves nothing as Leave will just be more enraged at having the death at the centre of their cultural grief reenacted. Leave solves nothing because the immigration focus takes EEA membership off the table. But many Leavers want EEA membership and defeated Remainders will row in behind them. But deep than that the polling suggests this is all largely driven by socio economic factors. What strikes me from the polling is ( A) none of those factors are going away. (B) most of those factors are bugger all to do with EU membership. So leaving or remaining won't resolve the issue. Too many variables to predict much in my view.

    We will get EEA-EFTA + emergency brake, which is what a clear majority of the country want:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/11/uk-voters-back-norway-style-brexit-poll-reveals/
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Anecdote alert:

    I have heard exactly no one calling for a cancellation of the referendum, and I'm on a train to Cambridge.

    Perhaps non-anecdote alert would have been a better title.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    Cyclefree said:

    This was D Cameron earlier. "Where we see hatred, where we see division, where we see intolerance we must drive it out of our public life and politics."

    Well, were I his mother I'd be asking for the money spent on his education back. And this is meant to be a star pupil at Oxford. Give me strength.

    We must drive "division" out of our politics.

    What the hell does the cretin think politics is? Division is the essence of it. How power is divided. How countries and classes are divided. The division between the rich and the poor. The division between labour and capital. The division between Labour and the Conservatives. The division between worker and owner. The division between town and country. The division between the property owner and the renter.

    You can't drive it out. You have to manage it. There are, always have been and always will be competing interests in any group that numbers more than 1. You learn to manage those and sometimes, quite often, in fact, you have to choose.

    This is just mush and drivel.

    And as for hatred, sure hatred is not a nice emotion. But it can be quite a useful emotion. Hatred of the poverty in Victorian Britain was what drove some of those who worked hard to alleviate it. Unless someone incites violence they can hate away. I don't think much of people who shout "Tory scum" at people attending conferences but they're free to do it and I'd rather have that sort of abuse than seek to drive it out of public life.

    As for intolerance, what does that even mean in this context? I'm pretty intolerant of those who seek to undermine free speech. Is that sort of intolerance meant to be driven out of public life?

    This is what he wants:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thoughtcrime

    We must all think as we're told to and do as we're told to.
  • PeterA5145
    PeterA5145 Posts: 2
    I would like to see either the Scottish/Welsh MMP system, or even better the Irish STV system, used for Westminster elections. But I don't agree that AV has "undoubted merits". If anything, it would tend to exaggerate the distortions of FPTP and freeze out fringe and maverick voices.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    BenedictWhite said:

    another_richard said:

    The 'cancel the referendum' petition map does have some similarities with the AV result:

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=123450&area=lon

    Notice the difference between the 'trendy' Labour areas and the 'ethnic' Labour areas:

    Hackney N 178
    Hornsey 159
    ..
    Barking 4
    Hayes 0

    Likewise outside London the difference between 'trendy' Labour and wwc Labour:

    Bristol W 140
    Brighton P 123
    ..
    Redcar 0
    Doncaster N 0

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=123450&area=eng

    Frankly that is really interesting. Just wow. What a tool!
    And what type of Labour voters are registered on computer polling sites, I wonder. Trendy or wwc.
  • RealBritain
    RealBritain Posts: 255
    YellowSubmarine said:

    the polling suggests this is all largely driven by socio economic factors.. most of those factors are bugger all to do with EU membership.

    The second indisputable fact there is one which the majority of the british press are very keen to see not too strongly focused on.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,684
    edited June 2016
    John_M said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    If Leave do win and then effectively take over the party then the Tories lose the centre ground and power. If remain win many 'Leavers won't accept the result and the tories could split and will lose power. Who knows what will happen but I'm not convinced the Tories will win in 2020
    [or before] and given the current alternatives that is pretty piss poor for the country.

    If it is Leave and Kipper Tory v Corbyn/Mcdonnell that would be a return to politics circa 1980-1983, neither would command the centre ground which would perhaps give a boost to the LDs who would have to ditch their pro EU stance in a post EU UK. If it is a close Remain then Hammond or May most likely succeed Cameron and should lead the largest party in 2020, though with significant seat losses thanks to a resurgent UKIP
    What resurgent UKIP ? There is a bye election next month in a Cornwall CC UKIP held seat , they have already lost it as they are not even standing a candidate . They are withering away .
    If Leave win they are a pointless party. If Remain win then they will be reinvigorated - not least because there is a reasonable chance they will finally and permanently dump Farage.
    So many reasons to vote Leave: end of Farage, rise of a decent Liberal party from the grave, escaping further EU integration and retaking control of our laws.

    What's not to like?
    I agree. A proper Liberal party stripped of its Europhilia and campaigning on the basis of civil liberties and accountable governance would be well worth voting for.
    I would vote for them.
    I might too.

    In all seriousness, and I really mean this, the more I think about it the more convinced I am that only a Leave vote can restore both our politics and strengthen the UK.
  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    Cyclefree said:

    This was D Cameron earlier. "Where we see hatred, where we see division, where we see intolerance we must drive it out of our public life and politics."

    Well, were I his mother I'd be asking for the money spent on his education back. And this is meant to be a star pupil at Oxford. Give me strength.

    We must drive "division" out of our politics.

    What the hell does the cretin think politics is? Division is the essence of it. How power is divided. How countries and classes are divided. The division between the rich and the poor. The division between labour and capital. The division between Labour and the Conservatives. The division between worker and owner. The division between town and country. The division between the property owner and the renter.

    You can't drive it out. You have to manage it. There are, always have been and always will be competing interests in any group that numbers more than 1. You learn to manage those and sometimes, quite often, in fact, you have to choose.

    This is just mush and drivel.

    And as for hatred, sure hatred is not a nice emotion. But it can be quite a useful emotion. Hatred of the poverty in Victorian Britain was what drove some of those who worked hard to alleviate it. Unless someone incites violence they can hate away. I don't think much of people who shout "Tory scum" at people attending conferences but they're free to do it and I'd rather have that sort of abuse than seek to drive it out of public life.

    As for intolerance, what does that even mean in this context? I'm pretty intolerant of those who seek to undermine free speech. Is that sort of intolerance meant to be driven out of public life?




    I remarked earlier that I did not understand the 'division' part at all. As ever you put it better than me.

    There's no evidence of an unusual intelligence in his remarks. I wouldn't have minded platitudes, but those sentiments don't even qualify as such. Vapid bilge springs to mind.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    alex. said:

    Question on the linking of aspects of the Leave campaign (particularly Farage's poster and comments about "violence is the next step") and the death of Jo Cox.

    Presumably if it had not happened then few would disagree that it would be legitimate to publicly criticise the tone of the campaign and make inferences that such campaigning has the potential to stoke tensions and lead to unfortunate consequences.

    Why then when the fears of what could occur actually crystallize into dreadful reality does such criticism suddenly cease to be legitimate?

    I think it is distasteful to insinuate that Vote Leave want to murder their opponents, whether or not such a murder takes place.

  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As this Lib Dem (along with a small but significant minority) will be voting LEAVE, I'm not sure all the sad old stereotypes of LDs being Europhiles has anything other than trolling value.

    It's also worth reminding some on here Nick Clegg might have supported AV but it has never been Lib Dem policy and I voted NO as did, I suspect, a number of LDs.

    Back to more immediate matters, out walking with Mrs Stodge this evening and discussing the EU Referendum (she's a LEAVE supporter too which helps domestic harmony no end). It occurred to me that in trying to finally put an end to a question which has afflicted the Conservative Party for 30 years, David Cameron unwittingly raised a question which has bothered many in Britain for sixty years.

    A referendum on the EU has been replaced by a referendum on immigration.

    Well, actually it's a referendum on both.

    I think people will tolerate and accept immigration if they think they have some say.

    I don't think anyone apart from the avid Europhiles loves the EU, but like the ideas of:

    1. Trade.

    2. Stopping loons in Europe turning it into a protectionist superpower.

    However for a lot of people we see the loss of sovereignty and opportunity too much of a cost when in reality we have been able to do little to slow the mad EU train.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,684
    John_M said:

    Cyclefree said:

    This was D Cameron earlier. "Where we see hatred, where we see division, where we see intolerance we must drive it out of our public life and politics."

    Well, were I his mother I'd be asking for the money spent on his education back. And this is meant to be a star pupil at Oxford. Give me strength.

    We must drive "division" out of our politics.

    What the hell does the cretin think politics is? Division is the essence of it. How power is divided. How countries and classes are divided. The division between the rich and the poor. The division between labour and capital. The division between Labour and the Conservatives. The division between worker and owner. The division between town and country. The division between the property owner and the renter.

    You can't drive it out. You have to manage it. There are, always have been and always will be competing interests in any group that numbers more than 1. You learn to manage those and sometimes, quite often, in fact, you have to choose.

    This is just mush and drivel.

    And as for hatred, sure hatred is not a nice emotion. But it can be quite a useful emotion. Hatred of the poverty in Victorian Britain was what drove some of those who worked hard to alleviate it. Unless someone incites violence they can hate away. I don't think much of people who shout "Tory scum" at people attending conferences but they're free to do it and I'd rather have that sort of abuse than seek to drive it out of public life.

    As for intolerance, what does that even mean in this context? I'm pretty intolerant of those who seek to undermine free speech. Is that sort of intolerance meant to be driven out of public life?




    I remarked earlier that I did not understand the 'division' part at all. As ever you put it better than me.

    There's no evidence of an unusual intelligence in his remarks. I wouldn't have minded platitudes, but those sentiments don't even qualify as such. Vapid bilge springs to mind.
    "division" was a whistle.

    They don't care about enraging Leavers anymore. They are hoping to motivate the Remain base to turnout, and sway a couple of percent of the still undecided to swing it.
  • AnneJGP
    AnneJGP Posts: 3,743
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Jesus fucking Christ. The food here at the Praia art resort, in Calabria. Fucking amazing. Just.. Fucking amazing. Fuck.

    I'm a bitter, jaded old travel hack used to luxuries but.... Fuck.

    If I saw a place advertised with that as a quote, I would certainly be intrigued.
    I was just wondering how that would read, translated into Telegraph-speak or similar.

    (Good evening, everyone)
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @BenedictWhite


    'Actually as has been pointed out the EEA option does allow us to control immigration even within the rules of free movement of people in ways that being in the EU does not.'

    How apart from an emergency brake ?


    'Also presumably we can get our fishing back. In those circumstances we could see a reinvigoration of industry in our fishing ports.'


    Not sure about EEA, but apparently with EFTA we get back fishing, agriculture,no more European court and can negotiate our own non EU trade deals.

  • NoEasyDay
    NoEasyDay Posts: 454
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As this Lib Dem (along with a small but significant minority) will be voting LEAVE, I'm not sure all the sad old stereotypes of LDs being Europhiles has anything other than trolling value.

    It's also worth reminding some on here Nick Clegg might have supported AV but it has never been Lib Dem policy and I voted NO as did, I suspect, a number of LDs.

    Back to more immediate matters, out walking with Mrs Stodge this evening and discussing the EU Referendum (she's a LEAVE supporter too which helps domestic harmony no end). It occurred to me that in trying to finally put an end to a question which has afflicted the Conservative Party for 30 years, David Cameron unwittingly raised a question which has bothered many in Britain for sixty years.

    A referendum on the EU has been replaced by a referendum on immigration.

    Do you wear socks with sandals.
  • welshowl
    welshowl Posts: 4,464
    Casino_Royale said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Remain solves nothing as Leave will just be more enraged at having the death at the centre of their cultural grief reenacted. Leave solves nothing because the immigration focus takes EEA membership off the table. But many Leavers want EEA membership and defeated Remainders will row in behind them. But deep than that the polling suggests this is all largely driven by socio economic factors. What strikes me from the polling is ( A) none of those factors are going away. (B) most of those factors are bugger all to do with EU membership. So leaving or remaining won't resolve the issue. Too many variables to predict much in my view.

    We will get EEA-EFTA + emergency brake, which is what a clear majority of the country want:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/11/uk-voters-back-norway-style-brexit-poll-reveals/
    Yay! Count me in.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    dodrade said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jo-cox-death-conservatives-will-not-contest-murdered-labour-mp-seat-batley-spen-thomas-mair-a7087246.html Interesting gven the most recent precident. In Eastbourne the Liberal Democrats beat the incumbents.

    South Belfast was also contested after the murder of Robert Bradford and Abingdon after Airey Neave's death (although the latter was killed just before the 1979 election so no by-election was held).

    I'm not sure the best response to an "attack on democracy" is effectively to suspend it. Of course Labour would easily retain the seat but there ought to be a contest so the new MP has a mandate rather than simply be gifted the seat.
    The last uncontested by-election after an assassination was in North Down in 1922, after the murder of Sir Henry Wilson.

    But both by-elections and uncontested elections were far more common then, in any case.

    In that constituency alone, it was the third uncontested by-election in just 13 months!
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,684
    Sean_F said:

    alex. said:

    Question on the linking of aspects of the Leave campaign (particularly Farage's poster and comments about "violence is the next step") and the death of Jo Cox.

    Presumably if it had not happened then few would disagree that it would be legitimate to publicly criticise the tone of the campaign and make inferences that such campaigning has the potential to stoke tensions and lead to unfortunate consequences.

    Why then when the fears of what could occur actually crystallize into dreadful reality does such criticism suddenly cease to be legitimate?

    I think it is distasteful to insinuate that Vote Leave want to murder their opponents, whether or not such a murder takes place.

    It's worse than that: they want to imply that it was Leave's campaign on immigration that led to the murder.

    Ergo, implying Leave have responsibility for it, and should lose the referendum accordingly.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited June 2016
    Drove up from the Sussex coast to London today. Vote Leave material conspicuously present on most of the journey up to the M25. Zero sign of Remain.
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