Frankly that is really interesting. Just wow. What a tool!
And what type of Labour voters are registered on computer polling sites, I wonder. Trendy or wwc.
The pettition is on the government epetition site and spread by social media. As such people put in their addresses and this is why that tool knows where they are.
As this Lib Dem (along with a small but significant minority) will be voting LEAVE, I'm not sure all the sad old stereotypes of LDs being Europhiles has anything other than trolling value.
It's also worth reminding some on here Nick Clegg might have supported AV but it has never been Lib Dem policy and I voted NO as did, I suspect, a number of LDs.
Back to more immediate matters, out walking with Mrs Stodge this evening and discussing the EU Referendum (she's a LEAVE supporter too which helps domestic harmony no end). It occurred to me that in trying to finally put an end to a question which has afflicted the Conservative Party for 30 years, David Cameron unwittingly raised a question which has bothered many in Britain for sixty years.
A referendum on the EU has been replaced by a referendum on immigration.
Well, actually it's a referendum on both.
I think people will tolerate and accept immigration if they think they have some say.
I don't think anyone apart from the avid Europhiles loves the EU, but like the ideas of:
1. Trade.
2. Stopping loons in Europe turning it into a protectionist superpower.
However for a lot of people we see the loss of sovereignty and opportunity too much of a cost when in reality we have been able to do little to slow the mad EU train.
We have nuanced views.
For many apolitical ABs and professionals in London/SE it's viewed (wrongly, IMHO) as a referendum on the economy.
Elsewhere, it's viewed as a referendum on immigration.
Unique circumstances apply in Scotland/NI/Gibraltar.
As this Lib Dem (along with a small but significant minority) will be voting LEAVE, I'm not sure all the sad old stereotypes of LDs being Europhiles has anything other than trolling value.
It's also worth reminding some on here Nick Clegg might have supported AV but it has never been Lib Dem policy and I voted NO as did, I suspect, a number of LDs.
Back to more immediate matters, out walking with Mrs Stodge this evening and discussing the EU Referendum (she's a LEAVE supporter too which helps domestic harmony no end). It occurred to me that in trying to finally put an end to a question which has afflicted the Conservative Party for 30 years, David Cameron unwittingly raised a question which has bothered many in Britain for sixty years.
A referendum on the EU has been replaced by a referendum on immigration.
Well, actually it's a referendum on both.
I think people will tolerate and accept immigration if they think they have some say.
I don't think anyone apart from the avid Europhiles loves the EU, but like the ideas of:
1. Trade.
2. Stopping loons in Europe turning it into a protectionist superpower.
However for a lot of people we see the loss of sovereignty and opportunity too much of a cost when in reality we have been able to do little to slow the mad EU train.
Honestly if the EU were less arrogant, less insistent upon involving itself in every little thing, I don't think there would be any problem even if they were still taking large amounts of power. The question really boils down to:
1) Do you like the EU as it currently exists. If Yes, vote Remain, obviously. If no, then.
2) Do you believe the EU is capable of reforming to a position you would like? If Yes, vote Remain. If No, you vote Leave.
That simple question, does the EU need reform and if so is the EU capable of reforming, is what all the sound and fury is about. There are a lot fewer hardcore Leavers than the EU thinks, the problem is a group which talks about populist 'contagion' spreading, is incapable of genuinely understanding and thus convincing people with concerns, they flee from them, deflect from them, anything to confront it, as to them, to confront it will be to magnifiy it, when in fact ignoring it does that.
Question on the linking of aspects of the Leave campaign (particularly Farage's poster and comments about "violence is the next step") and the death of Jo Cox.
Presumably if it had not happened then few would disagree that it would be legitimate to publicly criticise the tone of the campaign and make inferences that such campaigning has the potential to stoke tensions and lead to unfortunate consequences.
Why then when the fears of what could occur actually crystallize into dreadful reality does such criticism suddenly cease to be legitimate?
I think it is distasteful to insinuate that Vote Leave want to murder their opponents, whether or not such a murder takes place.
I think the thing that has made the debate heated and unpleasant has been describing one side as traitors and the other as isolationist little Englanders.
Counterfactual: imagine if we do Brexit, and then we do OK.... What will that do to the perception of "expert" opinion in Britain?
They've predicted everything from the Prohibition of the Gruffalo to World War Seven. Yet what if we leave and it's kinda alright, and we don't have those fucking annoying EU judges lecturing us from Liechtenstein?
That, I submit, would be a psychological revolution, to match the political convulsion.
Not all "the experts" have predicted doom and gloom or armageddon. The Treasury report predicred economic growth, only slower.
We are at a fork in the road in a dark forest. When we choose a path we cannot know what was down the other.
Or to put it another way: Monty Hall never shows us what is behind any door, then asks us whether we want to switch or not.
Counterfactual: imagine if we do Brexit, and then we do OK.... What will that do to the perception of "expert" opinion in Britain?
They've predicted everything from the Prohibition of the Gruffalo to World War Seven. Yet what if we leave and it's kinda alright, and we don't have those fucking annoying EU judges lecturing us from Liechtenstein?
That, I submit, would be a psychological revolution, to match the political convulsion.
As always happens, an army of experts would descend up on us, explaining things after the fact.
As someone commented, there are so many people making so many forecasts, some will be right. They'll be lauded for their insight and expertise rather than being lucky.
Alternatively (and whatever happens this is going to go on for the rest of our lives) people will be saying "Ahah, but if we'd stayed in/come out it would have been even better".
'Actually as has been pointed out the EEA option does allow us to control immigration even within the rules of free movement of people in ways that being in the EU does not.'
How apart from an emergency brake ?
'Also presumably we can get our fishing back. In those circumstances we could see a reinvigoration of industry in our fishing ports.'
Not sure about EEA, but apparently with EFTA we get back fishing, agriculture,no more European court and can negotiate our own non EU trade deals.
On the immigration, you don't have to extend any benefits apparently, also you could charge for health insurance.
Drove up from the Sussex coast to London today. Vote Leave material conspicuously present on most of the journey up to the M25. Zero sign of Remain.
Given that most farmers hate the CAP with a passion, and have done for decades, it's no great surprise to see Leave posters in fields up and down the countryside.
Labour national campaign is shut down through until Monday. Limited local campaigning (leafleting basically) resumes Sunday afternoon.
TBH I think the Labour campaign is probably done. With tributes in the commons Monday afternoon they won't be doing anything, that only leaves the last 2 days.
I agree. The campaign is all but over bar the actual vote. Any momentum for Leave has been stopped dead. Cameron (and Osborne) will be safe . I expected a Remain win anyway, even yesterday morning with the polls (which exclude NI & overseas voters) as they were then.
However, the break in campaigning and the increased fear (and hence fear of change) will enhance support for Remain, and I expect the margin of victory to be >10%.
What has happened is tragic, and people will think twice about being associated with what they perceive as extremist xenophobes leading the Brexit campaign, as exemplified by Farage in front on that poster. There have been enough insinuations in the media, including the BBC, about the motivations of the murderer.
Why would a loss of momentum prevent a Leave win. At present they seem to be leading, if momentum is stopped they would still win, so long as it does not reverse.
Counterfactual: imagine if we do Brexit, and then we do OK.... What will that do to the perception of "expert" opinion in Britain?
They've predicted everything from the Prohibition of the Gruffalo to World War Seven. Yet what if we leave and it's kinda alright, and we don't have those fucking annoying EU judges lecturing us from Liechtenstein?
That, I submit, would be a psychological revolution, to match the political convulsion.
It would. I would have thought that the value of expert economic opinion would have gone with the failure to predict much since the 2008 crash but apparently not.
If we do leave and everything is good, then politicians will not be able to rely on "authority" again which in my view would be a good thing. They will have to try to make a good argument.
As this Lib Dem (along with a small but significant minority) will be voting LEAVE, I'm not sure all the sad old stereotypes of LDs being Europhiles has anything other than trolling value.
It's also worth reminding some on here Nick Clegg might have supported AV but it has never been Lib Dem policy and I voted NO as did, I suspect, a number of LDs.
Back to more immediate matters, out walking with Mrs Stodge this evening and discussing the EU Referendum (she's a LEAVE supporter too which helps domestic harmony no end). It occurred to me that in trying to finally put an end to a question which has afflicted the Conservative Party for 30 years, David Cameron unwittingly raised a question which has bothered many in Britain for sixty years.
A referendum on the EU has been replaced by a referendum on immigration.
Quite. I think the "political class" - awful generalisation but you know what I mean - has been very surprised ( gobsmacked actually methinks ), by what has been unleashed. I'd argue it's always been there simmering, they have just chosen to ignore it for years and years. Immigration is a big part sure, but it's not 100%. I know my mother feels she was conned 40 plus years ago and it was never the "Common Market" she was sold in the 70's. I feel strongly we should've had a vote years ago in one of the many treaty changes but those in power always found an excuse not to. I hope (but do not sadly expect) they reap their reward on Thursday for ignoring the British people for decades on this.
Question on the linking of aspects of the Leave campaign (particularly Farage's poster and comments about "violence is the next step") and the death of Jo Cox.
Presumably if it had not happened then few would disagree that it would be legitimate to publicly criticise the tone of the campaign and make inferences that such campaigning has the potential to stoke tensions and lead to unfortunate consequences.
Why then when the fears of what could occur actually crystallize into dreadful reality does such criticism suddenly cease to be legitimate?
I think it is distasteful to insinuate that Vote Leave want to murder their opponents, whether or not such a murder takes place.
It's worse than that: they want to imply that it was Leave's campaign on immigration that led to the murder.
Ergo, implying Leave have responsibility for it, and should lose the referendum accordingly.
Confused about the link between immigration and the local loner nutcase they've arrested for murder?
Drove up from the Sussex coast to London today. Vote Leave material conspicuously present on most of the journey up to the M25. Zero sign of Remain.
There are one or two large Remain posters on the A68 near Tow Law and on the A689 towards Wolsingham. But TBH where I live in West County Durham there are more sheep than people.
There's a Vote Leave A3 poster in My office and outside my Mother's house . . .
Question on the linking of aspects of the Leave campaign (particularly Farage's poster and comments about "violence is the next step") and the death of Jo Cox.
Presumably if it had not happened then few would disagree that it would be legitimate to publicly criticise the tone of the campaign and make inferences that such campaigning has the potential to stoke tensions and lead to unfortunate consequences.
Why then when the fears of what could occur actually crystallize into dreadful reality does such criticism suddenly cease to be legitimate?
I think it is distasteful to insinuate that Vote Leave want to murder their opponents, whether or not such a murder takes place.
It's worse than that: they want to imply that it was Leave's campaign on immigration that led to the murder.
Ergo, implying Leave have responsibility for it, and should lose the referendum accordingly.
Hmmm. Perhaps we should insinuate that Cameron is responsible for Jo's death.
After all, Cameron is the one who promised a referendum, said he would support Brexit if he didn't get a good deal, then (after a bad deal) broke his promise.
Then he abused every office of power he has and every relationship possible to rig the election in his favour.
Many Leavers are peed off with his behaviour, but could that abuse of power have pushed a man with mental problems into a targeting a Remain MP as a substitute for his anger with Cameron?
In darkest Wiltshire, I have not seen a single Remain poster, not even on the house of the brave house which put up a Labour poster at the GE. Not a heard a peep from any local politicos, although the MP is for Leave (despite otherwise being a self described arch loyalist whose only rebelled against the party line once, over Iraq)
Remain solves nothing as Leave will just be more enraged at having the death at the centre of their cultural grief reenacted. Leave solves nothing because the immigration focus takes EEA membership off the table. But many Leavers want EEA membership and defeated Remainders will row in behind them. But deep than that the polling suggests this is all largely driven by socio economic factors. What strikes me from the polling is ( A) none of those factors are going away. (B) most of those factors are bugger all to do with EU membership. So leaving or remaining won't resolve the issue. Too many variables to predict much in my view.
That is now. Circs will change after Leave.
A 60Bn trade advantage and a Peoples demand for controlled borders will both be magically accomodated, to both sides advantage.
I saw that the EEA supporting ASI had a poll showing support for EEA membership at the time Casino. The centre pieces of this campaign have been immigration and the £350m claim. EEA membership is at best a dose of Aspirin to both those issues. Leave took the strategic decision to say it favoured quiting the Single Market and has framed it's campaign around those two key issues. Cost and Immigrants. If you're dealing with people who either have been betrayed, feel betrayed or will always feel betrayed EEA membership will be viewed as betrayal. Farage will have a field day. He'll say it's another '75. " They didn't tell us what we were voting for ". Leave decided to assemble a coalition of voters. That's how you win election. But disparate coalitions of the angry can collapse if you win. Ask Nick Clegg. Immigration could easierly be establishment Leavers Tuition Fees.
Remain solves nothing as Leave will just be more enraged at having the death at the centre of their cultural grief reenacted. Leave solves nothing because the immigration focus takes EEA membership off the table. But many Leavers want EEA membership and defeated Remainders will row in behind them. But deep than that the polling suggests this is all largely driven by socio economic factors. What strikes me from the polling is ( A) none of those factors are going away. (B) most of those factors are bugger all to do with EU membership. So leaving or remaining won't resolve the issue. Too many variables to predict much in my view.
Actually as has been pointed out the EEA option does allow us to control immigration even within the rules of free movement of people in ways that being in the EU does not.
Also presumably we can get our fishing back. In those circumstances we could see a reinvigoration of industry in our fishing ports. That would be good as that will also help with the balance of payments.
I have been wondering about the fishing. Would our sea boundary automatically revert back to where it was, or would it be open to 'negotiation' (i.e. probably surrender)?
Counterfactual: imagine if we do Brexit, and then we do OK.... What will that do to the perception of "expert" opinion in Britain?
They've predicted everything from the Prohibition of the Gruffalo to World War Seven. Yet what if we leave and it's kinda alright, and we don't have those fucking annoying EU judges lecturing us from Liechtenstein?
That, I submit, would be a psychological revolution, to match the political convulsion.
The "experts" predict rounding error differences in our economic performance by 2030. Even the Treasury could only fabricate being 29% richer versus 37% richer. PwC think it'll be 25-28% per capita richer v. 29% per capita richer.
Of course, in that time, if the EU stagnates further and we do good trade deals, and our economy responds, which I think it will, we'd do much much better.
In the short-term, the Treasury thinks flat growth for 2-3 years. NIESR thinks growth of 1.7% next year rather than 2.7%
None of them factor in the changed real-politik after a Leave and a desire on all sides (UK/EU) to quickly do a deal to ensure political/economic stability.
This article sounds as if you expect there to be a further shift towards Brexit. I do certainly agree with you that a Leave win would actually be better than a Remain win, for the Tories. This because most of the pro-EU conservatives are not that pro-EU anyway. And it should be possible that UKIP will cease to exist as a major political force. Furthermore, Labour would be destroyed, after losing 3 elections (Scotland referendum, General Election and this one) in a row. However, have you taken into account the effect of the murder of Jo Cox? What are the consequences of the murder on the Remain side, you think? I would think that Remain adds a crucial couple of percentage points, from waverers or soft Brexiteers. And the media are full of it. Waverers might be put off voting for Brexit. Don't you think?
As this Lib Dem (along with a small but significant minority) will be voting LEAVE, I'm not sure all the sad old stereotypes of LDs being Europhiles has anything other than trolling value.
It's also worth reminding some on here Nick Clegg might have supported AV but it has never been Lib Dem policy and I voted NO as did, I suspect, a number of LDs.
Back to more immediate matters, out walking with Mrs Stodge this evening and discussing the EU Referendum (she's a LEAVE supporter too which helps domestic harmony no end). It occurred to me that in trying to finally put an end to a question which has afflicted the Conservative Party for 30 years, David Cameron unwittingly raised a question which has bothered many in Britain for sixty years.
A referendum on the EU has been replaced by a referendum on immigration.
Well, actually it's a referendum on both.
I think people will tolerate and accept immigration if they think they have some say.
I don't think anyone apart from the avid Europhiles loves the EU, but like the ideas of:
1. Trade.
2. Stopping loons in Europe turning it into a protectionist superpower.
However for a lot of people we see the loss of sovereignty and opportunity too much of a cost when in reality we have been able to do little to slow the mad EU train.
Honestly if the EU were less arrogant, less insistent upon involving itself in every little thing, I don't think there would be any problem even if they were still taking large amounts of power. The question really boils down to:
1) Do you like the EU as it currently exists. If Yes, vote Remain, obviously. If no, then.
2) Do you believe the EU is capable of reforming to a position you would like? If Yes, vote Remain. If No, you vote Leave.
That simple question, does the EU need reform and if so is the EU capable of reforming, is what all the sound and fury is about. There are a lot fewer hardcore Leavers than the EU thinks, the problem is a group which talks about populist 'contagion' spreading, is incapable of genuinely understanding and thus convincing people with concerns, they flee from them, deflect from them, anything to confront it, as to them, to confront it will be to magnifiy it, when in fact ignoring it does that.
Very true. Cameron went and asked for some powers back, not just for the UK but for everyone.
They said no.
That answers the question. Time to leave. It is possible there will be contagion but only because the EU is deaf.
'Actually as has been pointed out the EEA option does allow us to control immigration even within the rules of free movement of people in ways that being in the EU does not.'
How apart from an emergency brake ?
'Also presumably we can get our fishing back. In those circumstances we could see a reinvigoration of industry in our fishing ports.'
Not sure about EEA, but apparently with EFTA we get back fishing, agriculture,no more European court and can negotiate our own non EU trade deals.
On the immigration, you don't have to extend any benefits apparently, also you could charge for health insurance.
Yes, it's a right to live and work without a visa, rather than a right to be treated the same as a British person. So they can live and work if they wish, but can't live and sign on, or work part time and claim full housing benefit and tax credits etc.
Sky news are highlighting the poisonous nature of the referendum campaign and highlighting Farage and the poster. This is not coming over well and goodness knows what it is doing to the thoughts of the ordinary voter. I have come to the conclusion no one will win this no matter who does as the rancour is so deep I do not know how the Nation will be reconsiled
'Drove up from the Sussex coast to London today. Vote Leave material conspicuously present on most of the journey up to the M25. Zero sign of Remain.'
Noticed the same on a trip to Ashdown forest last week, surprised that Sussex was so pro Leave.
In Sevenoaks, the Leave posters and placards outnumber the Remain ones something like 5:1. I have only seen any Remain advertising at all in the past few days - up until then it was Leave stuff only, as far as I could see.
One of the Vote Leave organisers claims that, of people approached when running Saturday stalls, it is something like 7:1 for Leave.
Does this mean anything? We'll know this time next week. Scary.
I disagree Benedict. If the UK Fishing industry increased 10 fold after Brexit it would scratch the socio economic shifts underlying Brexit. There must be a decent chance it would increase aleination as we'd issue loads of work permits to EU migrants to fill the new Fishing jobs. It's tough and mercurial work and often not well paid on the front line. That's how Britain fills jobs Britons don't want to do. Why would that change after a Brexit ?
This article sounds as if you expect there to be a further shift towards Brexit. I do certainly agree with you that a Leave win would actually be better than a Remain win, for the Tories. This because most of the pro-EU conservatives are not that pro-EU anyway. And it should be possible that UKIP will cease to exist as a major political force. Furthermore, Labour would be destroyed, after losing 3 elections (Scotland referendum, General Election and this one) in a row. However, have you taken into account the effect of the murder of Jo Cox? What are the consequences of the murder on the Remain side, you think? I would think that Remain adds a crucial couple of percentage points, from waverers or soft Brexiteers. And the media are full of it. One could say that the Guardian and BBC might want to exploit it..
One could say that, if one was being as nakedly partisan as this site often appears to be. But in fact the entire media have been incredibly restrained - to continental european eyes oddly so - with the odd exception of the Star.
Counterfactual: imagine if we do Brexit, and then we do OK.... What will that do to the perception of "expert" opinion in Britain?
They've predicted everything from the Prohibition of the Gruffalo to World War Seven. Yet what if we leave and it's kinda alright, and we don't have those fucking annoying EU judges lecturing us from Liechtenstein?
That, I submit, would be a psychological revolution, to match the political convulsion.
Not all "the experts" have predicted doom and gloom or armageddon. The Treasury report predicred economic growth, only slower.
We are at a fork in the road in a dark forest. When we choose a path we cannot know what was down the other.
Or to put it another way: Monty Hall never shows us what is behind any door, then asks us whether we want to switch or not.
That is what is wrong with the debate. Osborne et al have been scweaming and scweaming about economic despair when in reality the predictions are fairly mild.
This article sounds as if you expect there to be a further shift towards Brexit. I do certainly agree with you that a Leave win would actually be better than a Remain win, for the Tories. This because most of the pro-EU conservatives are not that pro-EU anyway. And it should be possible that UKIP will cease to exist as a major political force. Furthermore, Labour would be destroyed, after losing 3 elections (Scotland referendum, General Election and this one) in a row. However, have you taken into account the effect of the murder of Jo Cox? What are the consequences of the murder on the Remain side, you think? I would think that Remain adds a crucial couple of percentage points, from waverers or soft Brexiteers. And the media are full of it. Waverers might be put off voting for Brexit. Don't you think?
All I can offer is anecdote. Talked to both sisters tonight (as reported earlier). Jo Cox's tragic death naturally came up.
Neither of them saw any link to the referendum. Take that as you will.
I saw that the EEA supporting ASI had a poll showing support for EEA membership at the time Casino. The centre pieces of this campaign have been immigration and the £350m claim. EEA membership is at best a dose of Aspirin to both those issues. Leave took the strategic decision to say it favoured quiting the Single Market and has framed it's campaign around those two key issues. Cost and Immigrants. If you're dealing with people who either have been betrayed, feel betrayed or will always feel betrayed EEA membership will be viewed as betrayal. Farage will have a field day. He'll say it's another '75. " They didn't tell us what we were voting for ". Leave decided to assemble a coalition of voters. That's how you win election. But disparate coalitions of the angry can collapse if you win. Ask Nick Clegg. Immigration could easierly be establishment Leavers Tuition Fees.
If Leave win 51/49 there will have to be a compromise. A very large number of people will have voted for continued membership of the single market.
This is that compromise.
As long as Leave can demonstrate *some* additional controls over immigration, and meaningful reduction in numbers (tick) and some decent meaningful powers returned (tick) I think they'd be accepted.
As this Lib Dem (along with a small but significant minority) will be voting LEAVE, I'm not sure all the sad old stereotypes of LDs being Europhiles has anything other than trolling value.
It's also worth reminding some on here Nick Clegg might have supported AV but it has never been Lib Dem policy and I voted NO as did, I suspect, a number of LDs.
Back to more immediate matters, out walking with Mrs Stodge this evening and discussing the EU Referendum (she's a LEAVE supporter too which helps domestic harmony no end). It occurred to me that in trying to finally put an end to a question which has afflicted the Conservative Party for 30 years, David Cameron unwittingly raised a question which has bothered many in Britain for sixty years.
A referendum on the EU has been replaced by a referendum on immigration.
Well, actually it's a referendum on both.
I think people will tolerate and accept immigration if they think they have some say.
I don't think anyone apart from the avid Europhiles loves the EU, but like the ideas of:
1. Trade.
2. Stopping loons in Europe turning it into a protectionist superpower.
However for a lot of people we see the loss of sovereignty and opportunity too much of a cost when in reality we have been able to do little to slow the mad EU train.
Honestly if the EU were less arrogant, less insistent upon involving itself in every little thing, I don't think there would be any problem even if they were still taking large amounts of power. The question really boils down to:
1) Do you like the EU as it currently exists. If Yes, vote Remain, obviously. If no, then.
2) Do you believe the EU is capable of reforming to a position you would like? If Yes, vote Remain. If No, you vote Leave.
That simple question, does the EU need reform and if so is the EU capable of reforming, is what all the sound and fury is about. There are a lot fewer hardcore Leavers than the EU thinks, the problem is a group which talks about populist 'contagion' spreading, is incapable of genuinely understanding and thus convincing people with concerns, they flee from them, deflect from them, anything to confront it, as to them, to confront it will be to magnifiy it, when in fact ignoring it does that.
Very true. Cameron went and asked for some powers back, not just for the UK but for everyone.
They said no.
Actually they said no and be grateful for what we did give you, and by the way we're sick of your complaining.
The Times has endorsed remain. Tomorrow's front page.
That'll shift very few unconvinced votes amongst the professional classes compared to the Sun's megaphone campaign, as Murdoch knows, but it does enable him to look considerably better.
Sky news are highlighting the poisonous nature of the referendum campaign and highlighting Farage and the poster. This is not coming over well and goodness knows what it is doing to the thoughts of the ordinary voter. I have come to the conclusion no one will win this no matter who does as the rancour is so deep I do not know how the Nation will be reconsiled
It's hard to know what effect the awful events of yesterday will have on the referendum but if I had to make a guess I'd say not much.
I suspect they will poll about the murder and everybody will agree it was a shockingly awful and terrible act, but when they're asked if it will change how they intend to vote in the referendum (or whether they think LEAVE is to blame) most people will say no.
However, it will have an effect on a very tiny minority of the electorate and if the vote is close enough on the day, it's possible these switchers could be decisive... But I'm actually expecting a reasonably decisive vote for the winner on the day (just not sure whether that will be LEAVE or REMAIN yet)
In darkest Wiltshire, I have not seen a single Remain poster, not even on the house of the brave house which put up a Labour poster at the GE. Not a heard a peep from any local politicos, although the MP is for Leave (despite otherwise being a self described arch loyalist whose only rebelled against the party line once, over Iraq)
Who puts posters up? I would be considered a fanatical Europhile on this forum and I eschewed the option to put a poster up, despite one dropping through my door. I'm a nice neighbour and if my neighbours are Leavers I don't want to upset them. I assume others feel similarly.
This article sounds as if you expect there to be a further shift towards Brexit. I do certainly agree with you that a Leave win would actually be better than a Remain win, for the Tories. This because most of the pro-EU conservatives are not that pro-EU anyway. And it should be possible that UKIP will cease to exist as a major political force. Furthermore, Labour would be destroyed, after losing 3 elections (Scotland referendum, General Election and this one) in a row. However, have you taken into account the effect of the murder of Jo Cox? What are the consequences of the murder on the Remain side, you think? I would think that Remain adds a crucial couple of percentage points, from waverers or soft Brexiteers. And the media are full of it. One could say that the Guardian and BBC might want to exploit it..
One could say that, if one was being as nakedly partisan as this site often appears to be. But in fact the entire media have been incredibly restrained - to continental european eyes oddly so - with the odd exception of the Star.
Guardianistas couldn't be anymore Remainerer . In this respect, it IS like a general election. I'm sure they despise Farage even more than they did on Wednesday. But they're already accounted for.
As you say, I have no idea what effect it'll have on the Star audience (while I try and read across the press spectrum, I draw the line at the Star and the Express).
As this Lib Dem (along with a small but significant minority) will be voting LEAVE, I'm not sure all the sad old stereotypes of LDs being Europhiles has anything other than trolling value.
It's also worth reminding some on here Nick Clegg might have supported AV but it has never been Lib Dem policy and I voted NO as did, I suspect, a number of LDs.
Back to more immediate matters, out walking with Mrs Stodge this evening and discussing the EU Referendum (she's a LEAVE supporter too which helps domestic harmony no end). It occurred to me that in trying to finally put an end to a question which has afflicted the Conservative Party for 30 years, David Cameron unwittingly raised a question which has bothered many in Britain for sixty years.
A referendum on the EU has been replaced by a referendum on immigration.
This LD voted against AV. It is a pretty crap system, but I would have voted for a good PR system with constituency links (like in Scotland and Wales). I will be voting Remain. No party is a monolith (bizarrely polls show 5% of kippers voting Remain. It is quite hard to know why!)
It is turning into a referendum on immigration though.
Anecdote: today I was interviewing a Greek Doctor for a post. We got to the mandatory HR questions at the end that get asked of all candidates. One was "Do you need a work Visa?" He smiled and said "Not this week". Droll enough to make dry jokes in interviews? Give him the job!
Oh how we will laugh when the immigration police haul him out of clinic and on a plane to Athens in handcuffs!
This article sounds as if you expect there to be a further shift towards Brexit. I do certainly agree with you that a Leave win would actually be better than a Remain win, for the Tories. This because most of the pro-EU conservatives are not that pro-EU anyway. And it should be possible that UKIP will cease to exist as a major political force. Furthermore, Labour would be destroyed, after losing 3 elections (Scotland referendum, General Election and this one) in a row. However, have you taken into account the effect of the murder of Jo Cox? What are the consequences of the murder on the Remain side, you think? I would think that Remain adds a crucial couple of percentage points, from waverers or soft Brexiteers. And the media are full of it. Waverers might be put off voting for Brexit. Don't you think?
All I can offer is anecdote. Talked to both sisters tonight (as reported earlier). Jo Cox's tragic death naturally came up.
Neither of them saw any link to the referendum. Take that as you will.
I suspect it depends who our social circle is. My anecdotal evidence has not been of directly shifted votes, but perceptions.
The Times has endorsed remain. Tomorrow's front page.
Though I have to say it's not exactly a resounding endorsement. Basically says the EU is rubbish and it has to change, else we will limp on with the same old issues we have now.
Oh - it doesn't give Cameron much longer, which I think is probably correct.
Why would a loss of momentum prevent a Leave win. At present they seem to be leading, if momentum is stopped they would still win, so long as it does not reverse.
Why would a loss of momentum prevent a Leave win. At present they seem to be leading, if momentum is stopped they would still win, so long as it does not reverse.
I assume it's the "think about it" factor. I had hoped it would have worked on you by now. But I'm not convinced!
This article sounds as if you expect there to be a further shift towards Brexit. I do certainly agree with you that a Leave win would actually be better than a Remain win, for the Tories. This because most of the pro-EU conservatives are not that pro-EU anyway. And it should be possible that UKIP will cease to exist as a major political force. Furthermore, Labour would be destroyed, after losing 3 elections (Scotland referendum, General Election and this one) in a row. However, have you taken into account the effect of the murder of Jo Cox? What are the consequences of the murder on the Remain side, you think? I would think that Remain adds a crucial couple of percentage points, from waverers or soft Brexiteers. And the media are full of it. Waverers might be put off voting for Brexit. Don't you think?
All I can offer is anecdote. Talked to both sisters tonight (as reported earlier). Jo Cox's tragic death naturally came up.
Neither of them saw any link to the referendum. Take that as you will.
If it were to have an effect, I think it would only be on the mood music. I do not think, even if there is a shift to Remain, that anyone will be saying 'I did this because of what happened to Jo Cox', but it is conceivable such an event could contribute to an atmosphere in which some waverers shifted to Remain. In that scenario, anyone pushing any direct claims about the event would be counter productive I think.
As this Lib Dem (along with a small but significant minority) will be voting LEAVE, I'm not sure all the sad old stereotypes of LDs being Europhiles has anything other than trolling value.
It's also worth reminding some on here Nick Clegg might have supported AV but it has never been Lib Dem policy and I voted NO as did, I suspect, a number of LDs.
Back to more immediate matters, out walking with Mrs Stodge this evening and discussing the EU Referendum (she's a LEAVE supporter too which helps domestic harmony no end). It occurred to me that in trying to finally put an end to a question which has afflicted the Conservative Party for 30 years, David Cameron unwittingly raised a question which has bothered many in Britain for sixty years.
A referendum on the EU has been replaced by a referendum on immigration.
This LD voted against AV. It is a pretty crap system, but I would have voted for a good PR system with constituency links (like in Scotland and Wales). I will be voting Remain. No party is a monolith (bizarrely polls show 5% of kippers voting Remain. It is quite hard to know why!)
It is turning into a referendum on immigration though.
Anecdote: today I was interviewing a Greek Doctor for a post. We got to the mandatory HR questions at the end that get asked of all candidates. One was "Do you need a work Visa?" He smiled and said "Not this week". Droll enough to make dry jokes in interviews? Give him the job!
Oh how we will laugh when the immigration police haul him out of clinic and on a plane to Athens in handcuffs!
Why would a loss of momentum prevent a Leave win. At present they seem to be leading, if momentum is stopped they would still win, so long as it does not reverse.
Why would a loss of momentum prevent a Leave win. At present they seem to be leading, if momentum is stopped they would still win, so long as it does not reverse.
I assume it's the "think about it" factor. I had hoped it would have worked on you by now. But I'm not convinced!
Personally I think Care in the Community is responsible for the death of Jo Cox Lee Rigby and many others.
The countrys mental hospitals were closed down and people thrown out on the streets with no one even to make sure they took their medicine.
Remind me which health secretary was responsible for doing it?
Why don't you remind us?
Care in the community has been advocated since the 60s . Enoch Powell was in favour of it. And frankly so am I if you fund it and control properly. Sadly neither has been done.
Its not care in the community......its lets wash our hands of them and save some money.
LOL! Well of course that will be the outcome... But at least will allow The Times to whinge for decades to come and pretend they didn't know how it was all going to work it, wasn't what they voted for, etc.
In darkest Wiltshire, I have not seen a single Remain poster, not even on the house of the brave house which put up a Labour poster at the GE. Not a heard a peep from any local politicos, although the MP is for Leave (despite otherwise being a self described arch loyalist whose only rebelled against the party line once, over Iraq)
Who puts posters up? I would be considered a fanatical Europhile on this forum and I eschewed the option to put a poster up, despite one dropping through my door. I'm a nice neighbour and if my neighbours are Leavers I don't want to upset them. I assume others feel similarly.
At last years GE there was a paucity of posters up around here. I think they are widely considered a bit naff.
In darkest Wiltshire, I have not seen a single Remain poster, not even on the house of the brave house which put up a Labour poster at the GE. Not a heard a peep from any local politicos, although the MP is for Leave (despite otherwise being a self described arch loyalist whose only rebelled against the party line once, over Iraq)
If you went to your nearest market town on a Saturday I expect you would see activity, have seen a few Remain and Leave posters around here
We must all think as we're told to and do as we're told to.
He can fuck right off, if so. The more someone tells me not to say something or not to say it in a particular way the more inclined it makes me to do exactly that. Good manners are voluntary not imposed. They come from a desire to be kind to others. Kindness which is required rather than voluntary is not kindness any more and is worth less to the receiver in consequence.
I understand perfectly well how to behave in different situations. What is appropriate in a pub is probably not appropriate at a funeral. One does not speak ill of the dead and so on and so forth.
But we are at risk of falling into the trap so ably explained 85 years ago by the English judge Lord Moulton. He said that human action can be divided into three domains.
At one end is the law at the other is free choice and between them is the realm of manners. In this realm Lord Moulton said, "lies a domain in which our actions are not determined by law but in which we are not free to behave in any way we choose. In this domain we act with greater or lesser freedom from constraint, on a continuum that extends from a consciousness of duty through a sense of what is required by public spirit, to good form appropriate in a given situation".
The "realm of manners". The more politicians seek to control what we can say and think rather than leave it to manners, the more we end up in a situation where everything is either mandatory or forbidden, and ever more regulated and policed by the state. This is not a good direction of travel.
Remain solves nothing as Leave will just be more enraged at having the death at the centre of their cultural grief reenacted. Leave solves nothing because the immigration focus takes EEA membership off the table. But many Leavers want EEA membership and defeated Remainders will row in behind them. But deep than that the polling suggests this is all largely driven by socio economic factors. What strikes me from the polling is ( A) none of those factors are going away. (B) most of those factors are bugger all to do with EU membership. So leaving or remaining won't resolve the issue. Too many variables to predict much in my view.
Actually as has been pointed out the EEA option does allow us to control immigration even within the rules of free movement of people in ways that being in the EU does not.
Also presumably we can get our fishing back. In those circumstances we could see a reinvigoration of industry in our fishing ports. That would be good as that will also help with the balance of payments.
I have been wondering about the fishing. Would our sea boundary automatically revert back to where it was, or would it be open to 'negotiation' (i.e. probably surrender)?
Well, I think our politicians would have to get it back or else people will be rightly upset. I certainly hope so.
Perhaps after that the EU could consider how talking to governments whose arms you can twist is not the same as having the support of the people.
As this Lib Dem (along with a small but significant minority) will be voting LEAVE, I'm not sure all the sad old stereotypes of LDs being Europhiles has anything other than trolling value.
It's also worth reminding some on here Nick Clegg might have supported AV but it has never been Lib Dem policy and I voted NO as did, I suspect, a number of LDs.
Back to more immediate matters, out walking with Mrs Stodge this evening and discussing the EU Referendum (she's a LEAVE supporter too which helps domestic harmony no end). It occurred to me that in trying to finally put an end to a question which has afflicted the Conservative Party for 30 years, David Cameron unwittingly raised a question which has bothered many in Britain for sixty years.
A referendum on the EU has been replaced by a referendum on immigration.
This LD voted against AV. It is a pretty crap system, but I would have voted for a good PR system with constituency links (like in Scotland and Wales). I will be voting Remain. No party is a monolith (bizarrely polls show 5% of kippers voting Remain. It is quite hard to know why!)
It is turning into a referendum on immigration though.
Anecdote: today I was interviewing a Greek Doctor for a post. We got to the mandatory HR questions at the end that get asked of all candidates. One was "Do you need a work Visa?" He smiled and said "Not this week". Droll enough to make dry jokes in interviews? Give him the job!
Oh how we will laugh when the immigration police haul him out of clinic and on a plane to Athens in handcuffs!
Not sure if serious. Serious?
The story is true. The last sentence is my own joke.
Even this BBC piece seems more pessimistic about that happening thatthe Times
As dark as the mood is in Brussels and beyond, it's also fervently felt in many circles that the UK referendum is a clear message that the EU must reform.
The problem is not that EU bureaucrats and supporting politicians don't occasionally recognise, or claim to recognise, the the EU must reform. It's that they end up reverting to reacting against anything meaningful, again fearing contagion, and the words turn to nothing.
I'm getting really nervy about how big an economic shock we will face, and how poorly we may be governed in the aftermath, and it's that great big inability to reform that is the thing pushing me on at present.
Because they don't genuinely want to reform, or think they need to. If they did, they would not need to do it at the barrel of a metaphorical gun, they would not need to be dragged unwilling to it, they would not undermine it at every step with derogatory attitudes to anyone other than arch europhiles. They simply don't mean it, even if in the moment, and only for a moment, when in a panic, they think they mean it.
The Times: what idiotic hand wringing. A dismal return to business as usual is exactly what we'll get with Remain and the Referendum will have resolved nothing.
Personally I think Care in the Community is responsible for the death of Jo Cox Lee Rigby and many others.
The countrys mental hospitals were closed down and people thrown out on the streets with no one even to make sure they took their medicine.
Remind me which health secretary was responsible for doing it?
Why don't you remind us?
Care in the community has been advocated since the 60s . Enoch Powell was in favour of it. And frankly so am I if you fund it and control properly. Sadly neither has been done.
Its not care in the community......its lets wash our hands of them and save some money.
Wasnt that the whole point. - exploit a few naive processors views and use it as an excuse to shut dozens of vital mental hospitals to fund cutting the higher rate of tax to 40%.
Years ago there was a huge mental hospital at Banstead. After it was shut it was knocked down and a prison was built on the site. It is said apochraphally thst the inmates are the a.same people.
I find it slightly curious that the police have released so little information themselves so far. Two possible reasons come to mind, but it's still too early to discuss them.
Remain solves nothing as Leave will just be more enraged at having the death at the centre of their cultural grief reenacted. Leave solves nothing because the immigration focus takes EEA membership off the table. But many Leavers want EEA membership and defeated Remainders will row in behind them. But deep than that the polling suggests this is all largely driven by socio economic factors. What strikes me from the polling is ( A) none of those factors are going away. (B) most of those factors are bugger all to do with EU membership. So leaving or remaining won't resolve the issue. Too many variables to predict much in my view.
Actually as has been pointed out the EEA option does allow us to control immigration even within the rules of free movement of people in ways that being in the EU does not.
Also presumably we can get our fishing back. In those circumstances we could see a reinvigoration of industry in our fishing ports. That would be good as that will also help with the balance of payments.
I have been wondering about the fishing. Would our sea boundary automatically revert back to where it was, or would it be open to 'negotiation' (i.e. probably surrender)?
The EEZ would still apply and boundaries are already established right around the British Isles for oil and gas exploration. It is not a case of negotiations as it is already defined under international law.
Even this BBC piece seems more pessimistic about that happening thatthe Times
As dark as the mood is in Brussels and beyond, it's also fervently felt in many circles that the UK referendum is a clear message that the EU must reform.
I'm getting really nervy about how big an economic shock we will face, and how poorly we may be governed in the aftermath, and it's that great big inability to reform that is the thing pushing me on at present.
Chillax. Project Terror is getting to you, as it's meant to.
Read my comments on this thread. Look at the nuances behind what the EU leaders are really saying. Have a think about how the mandate and result would change the language and reality.
Don't let the buggers win and make you vote against your conscience.
If you do, there'll never be an end to it. And you'll hate yourself for it.
I think people will tolerate and accept immigration if they think they have some say.
I don't think anyone apart from the avid Europhiles loves the EU, but like the ideas of:
1. Trade.
2. Stopping loons in Europe turning it into a protectionist superpower.
However for a lot of people we see the loss of sovereignty and opportunity too much of a cost when in reality we have been able to do little to slow the mad EU train.
Honestly if the EU were less arrogant, less insistent upon involving itself in every little thing, I don't think there would be any problem even if they were still taking large amounts of power. The question really boils down to:
1) Do you like the EU as it currently exists. If Yes, vote Remain, obviously. If no, then.
2) Do you believe the EU is capable of reforming to a position you would like? If Yes, vote Remain. If No, you vote Leave.
That simple question, does the EU need reform and if so is the EU capable of reforming, is what all the sound and fury is about. There are a lot fewer hardcore Leavers than the EU thinks, the problem is a group which talks about populist 'contagion' spreading, is incapable of genuinely understanding and thus convincing people with concerns, they flee from them, deflect from them, anything to confront it, as to them, to confront it will be to magnifiy it, when in fact ignoring it does that.
Very true. Cameron went and asked for some powers back, not just for the UK but for everyone.
They said no.
Actually they said no and be grateful for what we did give you, and by the way we're sick of your complaining.
Sorry my bad, I forgot the additional parts. That is the main reason I am voting out. The EU is not reformable with the UK inside because it is far too arrogant. Once we leave and others look like following it may reconsider.
The Times has endorsed remain. Tomorrow's front page.
Much as I predicted, Murdoch hedging his bets with Sun for Leave and Times for Remain
Newspaper whose readers back Leave backs Leave; newspaper whose readers back Remain backs Remain.
Shocking.
Profit always comes first for Murdoch
He also knows, historically, that it's Sun that has played a far more active role at moments like these , as the Mail has too. A crucial section of the British media are very far from passive commercial bystanders.
Even this BBC piece seems more pessimistic about that happening thatthe Times
As dark as the mood is in Brussels and beyond, it's also fervently felt in many circles that the UK referendum is a clear message that the EU must reform.
The problem is not that EU bureaucrats and supporting politicians don't occasionally recognise, or claim to recognise, the the EU must reform. It's that they end up reverting to reacting against anything meaningful, again fearing contagion, and the words turn to nothing.
I'm getting really nervy about how big an economic shock we will face, and how poorly we may be governed in the aftermath, and it's that great big inability to reform that is the thing pushing me on at present.
Because they don't genuinely want to reform, or think they need to. If they did, they would not need to do it at the barrel of a metaphorical gun, they would not need to be dragged unwilling to it, they would not undermine it at every step with derogatory attitudes to anyone other than arch europhiles. They simply don't mean it, even if in the moment, and only for a moment, when in a panic, they think they mean it.
"Reform" from our point of view, means Brussels doing less. From the Eurocrats' point of view, it means Brussels being more efficient.
The Times has endorsed remain. Tomorrow's front page.
Much as I predicted, Murdoch hedging his bets with Sun for Leave and Times for Remain
Newspaper whose readers back Leave backs Leave; newspaper whose readers back Remain backs Remain.
Shocking.
Profit always comes first for Murdoch
He also knows, historically, that it's Sun that has played a far more active role at moments like these , as the Mail has too. A crucial section of the British media are very far from passive commercial bystanders.
True but yougov actually showed fewer Times readers backing Remain than Sun voters backing Leave, although both had clear majorities for those respective positions
Even this BBC piece seems more pessimistic about that happening thatthe Times
As dark as the mood is in Brussels and beyond, it's also fervently felt in many circles that the UK referendum is a clear message that the EU must reform.
The problem is not that EU bureaucrats and supporting politicians don't occasionally recognise, or claim to recognise, the the EU must reform. It's that they end up reverting to reacting against anything meaningful, again fearing contagion, and the words turn to nothing.
I'm getting really nervy about how big an economic shock we will face, and how poorly we may be governed in the aftermath, and it's that great big inability to reform that is the thing pushing me on at present.
Because they don't genuinely want to reform, or think they need to. If they did, they would not need to do it at the barrel of a metaphorical gun, they would not need to be dragged unwilling to it, they would not undermine it at every step with derogatory attitudes to anyone other than arch europhiles. They simply don't mean it, even if in the moment, and only for a moment, when in a panic, they think they mean it.
Have courage till Thursday. Europe needs a kick up the arse to really reform. Otherwise far worse faces the EU in the future if they keep ploughing in as they have been I fear.
I hope a Leave vote will be a positive catalyst for Europe.
As this Lib Dem (along with a small but significant minority) will be voting LEAVE, I'm not sure all the sad old stereotypes of LDs being Europhiles has anything other than trolling value.
It's also worth reminding some on here Nick Clegg might have supported AV but it has never been Lib Dem policy and I voted NO as did, I suspect, a number of LDs.
Back to more immediate matters, out walking with Mrs Stodge this evening and discussing the EU Referendum (she's a LEAVE supporter too which helps domestic harmony no end). It occurred to me that in trying to finally put an end to a question which has afflicted the Conservative Party for 30 years, David Cameron unwittingly raised a question which has bothered many in Britain for sixty years.
A referendum on the EU has been replaced by a referendum on immigration.
This LD voted against AV. It is a pretty crap system, but I would have voted for a good PR system with constituency links (like in Scotland and Wales). I will be voting Remain. No party is a monolith (bizarrely polls show 5% of kippers voting Remain. It is quite hard to know why!)
It is turning into a referendum on immigration though.
Anecdote: today I was interviewing a Greek Doctor for a post. We got to the mandatory HR questions at the end that get asked of all candidates. One was "Do you need a work Visa?" He smiled and said "Not this week". Droll enough to make dry jokes in interviews? Give him the job!
Oh how we will laugh when the immigration police haul him out of clinic and on a plane to Athens in handcuffs!
Ah.. Greek doctors looking for work here! Isn't the way the Euro has destroyed the Greek health system just fantastic?
We must all think as we're told to and do as we're told to.
The "realm of manners". The more politicians seek to control what we can say and think rather than leave it to manners, the more we end up in a situation where everything is either mandatory or forbidden, and ever more regulated and policed by the state. This is not a good direction of travel.
It's that sort of thinking which is why I ascribe to the view of noted philosopher Simon Phoenix, in that you cannot take away people's right to be assholes. It's why I defend people bold enough to attempt politicising tragedy, because good taste will condemn the majority of such stuff as awful, and you may actually get the occasional worthwhile amidst the worthless. That sort of thing is not proscribed by law, but the same thinking lies behind the idea you 'must not' do something ever, rather than just 'probably should not'.
Even this BBC piece seems more pessimistic about that happening thatthe Times
As dark as the mood is in Brussels and beyond, it's also fervently felt in many circles that the UK referendum is a clear message that the EU must reform.
The problem is not that EU bureaucrats and supporting politicians don't occasionally recognise, or claim to recognise, the the EU must reform. It's that they end up reverting to reacting against anything meaningful, again fearing contagion, and the words turn to nothing.
I'm getting really nervy about how big an economic shock we will face, and how poorly we may be governed in the aftermath, and it's that great big inability to reform that is the thing pushing me on at present.
Because they don't genuinely want to reform, or think they need to. If they did, they would not need to do it at the barrel of a metaphorical gun, they would not need to be dragged unwilling to it, they would not undermine it at every step with derogatory attitudes to anyone other than arch europhiles. They simply don't mean it, even if in the moment, and only for a moment, when in a panic, they think they mean it.
kle, I'd urge you to read the IFS report, or at least skim it. As Jacob Rees-Moog tells it (whatever you think of him, he's a classy speaker) disengagement is a gentle process precisely to avoid shocks to the EU (we can take it as read that it's not for the departing members benefit alone).
The IFS argument is that we're going to be rich (by 2030), but staying would make us even richer. I have not seen any argument that the UK is going to go into an absolute decline. Does that make sense?
We must all think as we're told to and do as we're told to.
He can fuck right off, if so. The more someone tells me not to say something or not to say it in a particular way the more inclined it makes me to do exactly that. Good manners are voluntary not imposed. They come from a desire to be kind to others. Kindness which is required rather than voluntary is not kindness any more and is worth less to the receiver in consequence.
I understand perfectly well how to behave in different situations. What is appropriate in a pub is probably not appropriate at a funeral. One does not speak ill of the dead and so on and so forth.
But we are at risk of falling into the trap so ably explained 85 years ago by the English judge Lord Moulton. He said that human action can be divided into three domains.
At one end is the law at the other is free choice and between them is the realm of manners. In this realm Lord Moulton said, "lies a domain in which our actions are not determined by law but in which we are not free to behave in any way we choose. In this domain we act with greater or lesser freedom from constraint, on a continuum that extends from a consciousness of duty through a sense of what is required by public spirit, to good form appropriate in a given situation".
The "realm of manners". The more politicians seek to control what we can say and think rather than leave it to manners, the more we end up in a situation where everything is either mandatory or forbidden, and ever more regulated and policed by the state. This is not a good direction of travel.
Once upon a time, there were no ticket barriers on the tube or on the trains. Then there were ticket barriers on the tube and not on the trains. Now there are ticket barriers on the tube and the trains.
Sometimes, we can't rely on peoples' manners (because it is of course rude to expect everyone else to pick up the tab for you bunking the fares).
The Times: what idiotic hand wringing. A dismal return to business as usual is exactly what we'll get with Remain and the Referendum will have resolved nothing.
If the EU was going to "reform" they'd have done it when they had a fantastic opportunity to "reform" AKA Cameron's non-negotiation renegotiation.
The British government/political class (from Cameron down) have absolutely no desire to see the EU "reform". In fact they're all signed up to more "integration" whenever they think they can get away with it.
So of course it will back to "business as usual". Actually it will be worse than business as usual because we'll be forever locked in to the ever expanding superstate (the political class will not dare have another referendum after these past weeks you can be sure of that)
Now, business as usual short term, and long term submergence into the Superstate is a perfectly legitimate position for the UK to be in but people should at least be honest about it, not delude themselves they are voting for REMAIN but they'll be an on-going process of "reform" and other opportunities to LEAVE. It's a non-starter.
Comments
For many apolitical ABs and professionals in London/SE it's viewed (wrongly, IMHO) as a referendum on the economy.
Elsewhere, it's viewed as a referendum on immigration.
Unique circumstances apply in Scotland/NI/Gibraltar.
1) Do you like the EU as it currently exists. If Yes, vote Remain, obviously. If no, then.
2) Do you believe the EU is capable of reforming to a position you would like? If Yes, vote Remain. If No, you vote Leave.
That simple question, does the EU need reform and if so is the EU capable of reforming, is what all the sound and fury is about. There are a lot fewer hardcore Leavers than the EU thinks, the problem is a group which talks about populist 'contagion' spreading, is incapable of genuinely understanding and thus convincing people with concerns, they flee from them, deflect from them, anything to confront it, as to them, to confront it will be to magnifiy it, when in fact ignoring it does that.
We are at a fork in the road in a dark forest. When we choose a path we cannot know what was down the other.
Or to put it another way: Monty Hall never shows us what is behind any door, then asks us whether we want to switch or not.
As someone commented, there are so many people making so many forecasts, some will be right. They'll be lauded for their insight and expertise rather than being lucky.
Alternatively (and whatever happens this is going to go on for the rest of our lives) people will be saying "Ahah, but if we'd stayed in/come out it would have been even better".
However, the break in campaigning and the increased fear (and hence fear of change) will enhance support for Remain, and I expect the margin of victory to be >10%.
What has happened is tragic, and people will think twice about being associated with what they perceive as extremist xenophobes leading the Brexit campaign, as exemplified by Farage in front on that poster. There have been enough insinuations in the media, including the BBC, about the motivations of the murderer.
'Drove up from the Sussex coast to London today. Vote Leave material conspicuously present on most of the journey up to the M25. Zero sign of Remain.'
Noticed the same on a trip to Ashdown forest last week, surprised that Sussex was so pro Leave.
If we do leave and everything is good, then politicians will not be able to rely on "authority" again which in my view would be a good thing. They will have to try to make a good argument.
Quite. I think the "political class" - awful generalisation but you know what I mean - has been very surprised ( gobsmacked actually methinks ), by what has been unleashed. I'd argue it's always been there simmering, they have just chosen to ignore it for years and years. Immigration is a big part sure, but it's not 100%. I know my mother feels she was conned 40 plus years ago and it was never the "Common Market" she was sold in the 70's. I feel strongly we should've had a vote years ago in one of the many treaty changes but those in power always found an excuse not to. I hope (but do not sadly expect) they reap their reward on Thursday for ignoring the British people for decades on this.
There's a Vote Leave A3 poster in My office and outside my Mother's house . . .
Hmmm. Perhaps we should insinuate that Cameron is responsible for Jo's death.
After all, Cameron is the one who promised a referendum, said he would support Brexit if he didn't get a good deal, then (after a bad deal) broke his promise.
Then he abused every office of power he has and every relationship possible to rig the election in his favour.
Many Leavers are peed off with his behaviour, but could that abuse of power have pushed a man with mental problems into a targeting a Remain MP as a substitute for his anger with Cameron?
Perhaps Cameron should look to himself over this?
(provocative comment for the day...)
That is now. Circs will change after Leave.
A 60Bn trade advantage and a Peoples demand for controlled borders will both be magically accomodated, to both sides advantage.
It is the way of world.
Of course, in that time, if the EU stagnates further and we do good trade deals, and our economy responds, which I think it will, we'd do much much better.
In the short-term, the Treasury thinks flat growth for 2-3 years. NIESR thinks growth of 1.7% next year rather than 2.7%
None of them factor in the changed real-politik after a Leave and a desire on all sides (UK/EU) to quickly do a deal to ensure political/economic stability.
Worries about serious economic risk are a mirage.
I do certainly agree with you that a Leave win would actually be better than a Remain win, for the Tories. This because most of the pro-EU conservatives are not that pro-EU anyway. And it should be possible that UKIP will cease to exist as a major political force. Furthermore, Labour would be destroyed, after losing 3 elections (Scotland referendum, General Election and this one) in a row.
However, have you taken into account the effect of the murder of Jo Cox? What are the consequences of the murder on the Remain side, you think? I would think that Remain adds a crucial couple of percentage points, from waverers or soft Brexiteers. And the media are full of it. Waverers might be put off voting for Brexit. Don't you think?
They said no.
That answers the question. Time to leave. It is possible there will be contagion but only because the EU is deaf.
I said ONLY BECAUSE THE EU IS DEAF!
One of the Vote Leave organisers claims that, of people approached when running Saturday stalls, it is something like 7:1 for Leave.
Does this mean anything? We'll know this time next week. Scary.
The countrys mental hospitals were closed down and people thrown out on the streets with no one even to make sure they took their medicine.
Remind me which health secretary was responsible for doing it?
The Times has endorsed remain. Tomorrow's front page.
Neither of them saw any link to the referendum. Take that as you will.
This is that compromise.
As long as Leave can demonstrate *some* additional controls over immigration, and meaningful reduction in numbers (tick) and some decent meaningful powers returned (tick) I think they'd be accepted.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/743900826343727104
I suspect they will poll about the murder and everybody will agree it was a shockingly awful and terrible act, but when they're asked if it will change how they intend to vote in the referendum (or whether they think LEAVE is to blame) most people will say no.
However, it will have an effect on a very tiny minority of the electorate and if the vote is close enough on the day, it's possible these switchers could be decisive... But I'm actually expecting a reasonably decisive vote for the winner on the day (just not sure whether that will be LEAVE or REMAIN yet)
As you say, I have no idea what effect it'll have on the Star audience (while I try and read across the press spectrum, I draw the line at the Star and the Express).
'Counterfactual: imagine if we do Brexit, and then we do OK.... What will that do to the perception of "expert" opinion in Britain?'
They have been wrong on so many occasions I don't think people will be surprised.
-Wrong about the ERM
-Wrong about the Euro
-None of them forecast the 2008 recession.
It is turning into a referendum on immigration though.
Anecdote: today I was interviewing a Greek Doctor for a post. We got to the mandatory HR questions at the end that get asked of all candidates. One was "Do you need a work Visa?" He smiled and said "Not this week". Droll enough to make dry jokes in interviews? Give him the job!
Oh how we will laugh when the immigration police haul him out of clinic and on a plane to Athens in handcuffs!
They are correct. Which is why Leave is the only option.
Oh - it doesn't give Cameron much longer, which I think is probably correct.
Edit - just seen tweets below.
Its not care in the community......its lets wash our hands of them and save some money.
I suspect, because of his readership base, he felt he had no choice.
No surprise to me. Been expecting it for weeks.
I understand perfectly well how to behave in different situations. What is appropriate in a pub is probably not appropriate at a funeral. One does not speak ill of the dead and so on and so forth.
But we are at risk of falling into the trap so ably explained 85 years ago by the English judge Lord Moulton. He said that human action can be divided into three domains.
At one end is the law at the other is free choice and between them is the realm of manners. In this realm Lord Moulton said, "lies a domain in which our actions are not determined by law but in which we are not free to behave in any way we choose. In this domain we act with greater or lesser freedom from constraint, on a continuum that extends from a consciousness of duty through a sense of what is required by public spirit, to good form appropriate in a given situation".
The "realm of manners". The more politicians seek to control what we can say and think rather than leave it to manners, the more we end up in a situation where everything is either mandatory or forbidden, and ever more regulated and policed by the state. This is not a good direction of travel.
Perhaps after that the EU could consider how talking to governments whose arms you can twist is not the same as having the support of the people.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/743903836750897152
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/17/jo-cox-murder-thomas-mair-asked-for-mental-health-treatment-day/
I propose banishing the FT to Frankfurt.
Shocking.
As dark as the mood is in Brussels and beyond, it's also fervently felt in many circles that the UK referendum is a clear message that the EU must reform.
Thing is, do you believe it will?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36549883
The problem is not that EU bureaucrats and supporting politicians don't occasionally recognise, or claim to recognise, the the EU must reform. It's that they end up reverting to reacting against anything meaningful, again fearing contagion, and the words turn to nothing.
I'm getting really nervy about how big an economic shock we will face, and how poorly we may be governed in the aftermath, and it's that great big inability to reform that is the thing pushing me on at present.
Because they don't genuinely want to reform, or think they need to. If they did, they would not need to do it at the barrel of a metaphorical gun, they would not need to be dragged unwilling to it, they would not undermine it at every step with derogatory attitudes to anyone other than arch europhiles. They simply don't mean it, even if in the moment, and only for a moment, when in a panic, they think they mean it.
Years ago there was a huge mental hospital at Banstead. After it was shut it was knocked down and a prison was built on the site. It is said apochraphally thst the inmates are the a.same people.
That sums up care in the community.
Read my comments on this thread. Look at the nuances behind what the EU leaders are really saying. Have a think about how the mandate and result would change the language and reality.
Don't let the buggers win and make you vote against your conscience.
If you do, there'll never be an end to it. And you'll hate yourself for it.
Bit confused how Juncker crept into the photo at the bottom
I hope a Leave vote will be a positive catalyst for Europe.
https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/743359287825731584
The IFS argument is that we're going to be rich (by 2030), but staying would make us even richer. I have not seen any argument that the UK is going to go into an absolute decline. Does that make sense?
Sometimes, we can't rely on peoples' manners (because it is of course rude to expect everyone else to pick up the tab for you bunking the fares).
The British government/political class (from Cameron down) have absolutely no desire to see the EU "reform". In fact they're all signed up to more "integration" whenever they think they can get away with it.
So of course it will back to "business as usual". Actually it will be worse than business as usual because we'll be forever locked in to the ever expanding superstate (the political class will not dare have another referendum after these past weeks you can be sure of that)
Now, business as usual short term, and long term submergence into the Superstate is a perfectly legitimate position for the UK to be in but people should at least be honest about it, not delude themselves they are voting for REMAIN but they'll be an on-going process of "reform" and other opportunities to LEAVE. It's a non-starter.