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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EURef might be more like the AV referendum and not the

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  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    PlatoSaid said:
    Staying in No. 10 - until the leadership contest concludes?

    If it's not 60:40 to Remain he's the proverbial cooked bread.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814

    Mr. Jonathan, if you mean in terms of securing a referendum, I think that's right.

    But the key players have been Gove, Boris and Leadsom. Boris gave Leave much needed impetus, Gove performed well at the early Sky Q&A, and Leadsom (apparently) was rather good at the six-way debate.

    Gisela Stuart's also been a significant asset for Leave.

    I would favour something like a Stuart/Mann/Gove/Leadsom/May unity Government, plus a role for Boris but not as PM.

    To be honest, I feel far closer to them than some Tories from whom I now feel utterly estranged.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771

    Germany accuses NATO of warmongering:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36566422

    Germans must be worried Putin is going to cut off their gas supplies again.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,639
    Jonathan said:

    If Leave wins this is Farages victory more than any other.

    Anything but.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    The Remainers are all up early and on message with "Nigel Farage's Little England" this morning.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    Staying in No. 10 - until the leadership contest concludes?

    If it's not 60:40 to Remain he's the proverbial cooked bread.
    I genuinely LOL when he said he'd be best placed to negotiate Brexit - yeah right, he did so well last time. The full intv is in Times Magazine today.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,855

    Miss Vance, migration is certainly a critical issue in the debate. However, migration isn't synonymous with xenophobia and hatred.

    Of course not.

    But that's how it looks from the outside.....however much we may wish it away.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good morning all.

    Are we still in Limbo, like a nation scared to move? Please tell me no!
  • Options
    EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    There was a hammer blow finding in that poll today.

    60% think immigration will be worse if we Remain, compared to 6% if we Leave.

    http://www.qriously.com/blog/jo-cox-murder-influence-outcome-eu-referendum/
  • Options
    EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    MikeK said:

    Good morning all.

    Are we still in Limbo, like a nation scared to move? Please tell me no!

    Not on pb. Things are getting pretty feisty in here :D
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Mr. Jonathan, if you mean in terms of securing a referendum, I think that's right.

    But the key players have been Gove, Boris and Leadsom. Boris gave Leave much needed impetus, Gove performed well at the early Sky Q&A, and Leadsom (apparently) was rather good at the six-way debate.

    Gisela Stuart's also been a significant asset for Leave.

    I would favour something like a Stuart/Mann/Gove/Leadsom/May unity Government, plus a role for Boris but not as PM.

    To be honest, I feel far closer to them than some Tories from whom I now feel utterly estranged.
    Ditto.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:

    After Massie and Toynbee, this is the latest article that Leavers are finding uncomfortable

    There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?


    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/17/united-kingdom-ukip-nigel-farage-leavers

    An excellent article by Marina Hyde. One that every civilized Leaver should think long and hard about. Rcs1000 SeanT DavidL..........
    Since the Massie article - which has clearly gained traction abroad - and despite coming from a LEAVE publication - there has been a degree of discomfiture and denial among some LEAVErs.

    To be clear, I don't think many of them are remotely nasty, or racist, or xenophobes - they are doing what they believe to be the right thing for themselves, their families and the country - from motives I can understand and see as reasonable and fair minded, albeit sometimes contradictory and possibly mis-guided.

    But that's not the point

    There are factions of the LEAVE campaign who are nasty racist xenophobes - people who applauded Farage's poster, neo-Nazis and the rest.

    And however unfair it is (and it is unfair) they - and we - will be tarred by association.

    And they can't (or won't) see it - though the vehemence of the protestations does give one pause.....
    Daves sharing a platform with guys who actually did sit down with people who committed murder and ethnic cleansing and egged them on.
    Dave egged on murder and ethnic cleansing?

    Do elucidate.....
    you misread he sits with Mssr Corbyn and Mcdonnell who egged on Gerry and Marty

    If your so worried about liberal democracy you have some strange bedfellows.

    Indeed the funnier thing is THEY are refusing to share the platform with Cameron because they think he is toxic.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,252

    Cyclefree said:

    @Cyclefree - I've certainly felt very isolated in my social group (AB professional graduates in London/SE) over the last few months.

    There are only two other close friends voting Leave out of my immediate/extended social group of c.20 close friends. Two are very reluctant Remainers. So we must be on, what, 15%?

    What do we have in common?

    Values. We believe things like sovereignty, democracy and nations matter.

    I think Remainers care about exactly the same things. They just have different views on them. I see this referendum, for example, as a democratic exercise in a sovereign country. But day to day, I believe it's in our best interests to cede sovereignty in certain areas. I understand that you think differently.

    I am a great believer in sharing power to achieve things which can best be done collectively. I think the EU has gone beyond that alas. But it is a very finely balanced decision in my view. It is less - for me anyway - about the position now, with which I could just about live and more about where the EU is going and whether I think Britain should go there too.

    BTW judging by your posts, I think we must have been living in Spain at around the same time. Were you in Barcelona?

    Lleida. Or Lerida as it was then.

    Ah. I was in Barcelona. Great times. A city I love.
  • Options
    EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    Sandpit said:

    The Remainers are all up early

    We won't sleep until we win. Unlike the layabout EU sluggards who support Remain.

    (Joke)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,028
    Mr. Estobar, it's the nature of a site of gamblers to lead the way (cf bets on Obama for president, Button for world champion, Corbyn for leader).

    Miss Vance, perhaps. Fortunately, that would soon be dispelled by the new PM, who won't be Farage.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986

    Scott_P said:

    If you turn this graph upside down, it shows tinfoil sales...

    @ianmulheirn: IMF on impact of Brexit. Unless you're a conspiracy theorist it's time to stop saying 'Remain is exaggerating' https://t.co/qx88Ih0i0W

    You don't understand much about economics, do you?

    That graph is designed to make you think the economy will shrink. But it is actually a reduction in growth over a *base* scenario, which in-and-of itself has some questionable assumptions.

    Under its "limited" scenario - in which Britain stayed in the EEA - the IMF forecast growth would slip from 2.2% to 1.4% next year. Significantly smaller drop than the Treasury forecast.

    Ooooh. Scary.

    Under its ‘adverse scenario’, economic growth will slow to 1.1 per cent this year. Then GDP shrinks by 0.8 per cent in 2017 before growing by just 0.6 per cent in 2018 and 1.7 per cent in 2019.

    Oh my word. How would we survive?

    But, most questionably, if we vote Remain, the IMF forecasts growth of 2.2 per cent next year, 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 2.1 per cent in 2019.

    In other words, it assumes the EU will be all fine and dandy, and smelling of roses. Which it won't be. A technical recession in the eurozone is very likely over the next few years.

    Vote Leave. Take Control.

    So more cuts and more tax rises.

    Will that be worth it? Depends on the deal we end up with.

    It will involve pushing out the baseline of the austerity programme by 2-3 years, which will probably happen even if we Remain. So, no.

    Is it worth it?

    For self-governance, absolutely yes.

    I appreciate others might calculate differently.

    So the entire austerity programme which Tory Leave ministers and MPs and many supporters have told us is unavoidable, the one that has done so much harm to working class people, turns out to be completely flexible and, therefore, completely avoidable.

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814

    Germany accuses NATO of warmongering:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36566422

    Germans must be worried Putin is going to cut off their gas supplies again.
    Capitulating to Putin, Capitulating to Erdogan.

    We really are stronger in.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MikeK said:

    Good morning all.

    Are we still in Limbo, like a nation scared to move? Please tell me no!

    Whatever the big guns are saying - campaigning is rolling on.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,855
    I wonder what we'll be discussing this time next week?

    Boris new book deal?

    THE GREAT BETRAYAL

    Another Polling Disaster?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814

    Germany accuses NATO of warmongering:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36566422

    If we Leave, we need to up our commitment to NATO security in Poland, IMHO.

    Take some real leadership in Europe. Show how it's done.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,028
    Miss Cyclefree, Barcelona's named after the Barca family (as in Hannibal Barca).

    His father, Hamilcar, effectively tricked the Carthaginian politicians into allowing him to go over to Spain, where he started carving out territory. But, because he conquered silver mines and sent back loads of silver, the politicians didn't kick up a fuss.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/743896903700582400

    As George Eaton says

    Police said far-right links were "priority line of inquiry". The Mail decides otherwise.
    That's not true, TSE.

    The clip from the news conference I saw had the police responding to questions from journalists. Mental health came first as an answer and then neo-nazi links. The police didn't suggest one or other was more important - in their shoes of course I'd be investigating both.

    Incidentally, I'd be surprised and disappointed if the police said anything before Thursday.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Our international reputation is suffering.

    There are none so blind as those who cannot see it.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,855
    Sandpit said:

    The Remainers are all up early and on message with "Nigel Farage's Little England" this morning.

    Kind of you to remind us....it had quite slipped our minds.....but looks like the NYT are onto it!
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    glw said:

    I have to tread carefully because I'm not 100% certain but the most interesting thing about that picture is not the man identified as Mair.
    Have you seen this story about the man who is the source of the claim he shouted 'Britain First'?

    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/17/britain-first-eyewitness-bnp-member-list/
    I do wonder whether that guy was being entirely opportunistic.

    BNP and BF dislike each other; he probably new that Mair was (apparently) a BF supporter, so he saw a chance to get them in trouble and took it.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771

    Scott_P said:

    If you turn this graph upside down, it shows tinfoil sales...

    @ianmulheirn: IMF on impact of Brexit. Unless you're a conspiracy theorist it's time to stop saying 'Remain is exaggerating' https://t.co/qx88Ih0i0W

    You don't understand much about economics, do you?

    That graph is designed to make you think the economy will shrink. But it is actually a reduction in growth over a *base* scenario, which in-and-of itself has some questionable assumptions.

    Under its "limited" scenario - in which Britain stayed in the EEA - the IMF forecast growth would slip from 2.2% to 1.4% next year. Significantly smaller drop than the Treasury forecast.

    Ooooh. Scary.

    Under its ‘adverse scenario’, economic growth will slow to 1.1 per cent this year. Then GDP shrinks by 0.8 per cent in 2017 before growing by just 0.6 per cent in 2018 and 1.7 per cent in 2019.

    Oh my word. How would we survive?

    But, most questionably, if we vote Remain, the IMF forecasts growth of 2.2 per cent next year, 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 2.1 per cent in 2019.

    In other words, it assumes the EU will be all fine and dandy, and smelling of roses. Which it won't be. A technical recession in the eurozone is very likely over the next few years.

    Vote Leave. Take Control.

    So more cuts and more tax rises.

    Will that be worth it? Depends on the deal we end up with.

    It will involve pushing out the baseline of the austerity programme by 2-3 years, which will probably happen even if we Remain. So, no.

    Is it worth it?

    For self-governance, absolutely yes.

    I appreciate others might calculate differently.

    So the entire austerity programme which Tory Leave ministers and MPs and many supporters have told us is unavoidable, the one that has done so much harm to working class people, turns out to be completely flexible and, therefore, completely avoidable.

    That nice Mme Lagarde who you praise so highly keeps warning us we need to do more fiscal consolidation. So does the EU commission.

    While complaining about austerity you're actually voting for more of it faster.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Sandpit said:

    The Remainers are all up early and on message with "Nigel Farage's Little England" this morning.

    Kind of you to remind us....it had quite slipped our minds.....but looks like the NYT are onto it!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c9F0JBFPko
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @Cyclefree - I've certainly felt very isolated in my social group (AB professional graduates in London/SE) over the last few months.

    There are only two other close friends voting Leave out of my immediate/extended social group of c.20 close friends. Two are very reluctant Remainers. So we must be on, what, 15%?

    What do we have in common?

    Values. We believe things like sovereignty, democracy and nations matter.

    I think Remainers care about exactly the same things. They just have different views on them. I see this referendum, for example, as a democratic exercise in a sovereign country. But day to day, I believe it's in our best interests to cede sovereignty in certain areas. I understand that you think differently.

    I am a great believer in sharing power to achieve things which can best be done collectively. I think the EU has gone beyond that alas. But it is a very finely balanced decision in my view. It is less - for me anyway - about the position now, with which I could just about live and more about where the EU is going and whether I think Britain should go there too.

    BTW judging by your posts, I think we must have been living in Spain at around the same time. Were you in Barcelona?

    Lleida. Or Lerida as it was then.

    Ah. I was in Barcelona. Great times. A city I love.

    Barcelona back then was fantastic - so exciting, so beautiful, so alive. But I think it's not the place it was. I've been back there for work a few times recently and it seems very changed. Much more prescriptively Catalan and nationalist, much less outward-looking than it used to be; a sadder and diminished city. And so many tourists!
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Here is Gove in the Sky debate making his "positive case"

    "the NHS ... faces increasing demand because we have uncontrolled free movement from the the European Union here.

    ...

    The EU has a plan to allow in 5 new countries, 88 million people.

    ...

    Our NHS will come under additional strain. Our NHS will be stronger is we leave the EU"

    Will any of the Leavers claim that is a positive case, as opposed to the xenophobic dogwhistle it so clearly is?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,855

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:

    After Massie and Toynbee, this is the latest article that Leavers are finding uncomfortable

    There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?


    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/17/united-kingdom-ukip-nigel-farage-leavers

    An excellent article by Marina Hyde. One that every civilized Leaver should think long and hard about. Rcs1000 SeanT DavidL..........
    Since the Massie article - which has clearly gained traction abroad - and despite coming from a LEAVE publication - there has been a degree of discomfiture and denial among some LEAVErs.

    To be clear, I don't think many of them are remotely nasty, or racist, or xenophobes - they are doing what they believe to be the right thing for themselves, their families and the country - from motives I can understand and see as reasonable and fair minded, albeit sometimes contradictory and possibly mis-guided.

    But that's not the point

    There are factions of the LEAVE campaign who are nasty racist xenophobes - people who applauded Farage's poster, neo-Nazis and the rest.

    And however unfair it is (and it is unfair) they - and we - will be tarred by association.

    And they can't (or won't) see it - though the vehemence of the protestations does give one pause.....
    Daves sharing a platform with guys who actually did sit down with people who committed murder and ethnic cleansing and egged them on.
    Dave egged on murder and ethnic cleansing?

    Do elucidate.....
    THEY are refusing to share the platform with Cameron .
    So there has been no platform sharing & you're just making stuff up.

    You are Michael Gove and I claim my 5 Turkish Lira......
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:

    After Massie and Toynbee, this is the latest article that Leavers are finding uncomfortable

    There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?


    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/17/united-kingdom-ukip-nigel-farage-leavers

    An excellent article by Marina Hyde. One that every civilized Leaver should think long and hard about. Rcs1000 SeanT DavidL..........
    One can easily turn that around. Every civilised Remainer should think long and hard about voting for an EU which will tolerate 50% youth unemployment, an EU that is seeking through its agreement with various internet companies to limit free speech, (something which is out of date, according to our very own NPalmer), an EU that thinks it permissible to lie in pursuit of a greater cause (cf Juncker), an EU that consists of states which contain real fascist parties in them, truly descended from the fascists of WW2 and represented in the EU Parliament, a vote for people like Gerry Adams. Every civilised Remainer should realise that a vote for Remain will be taken by Labour and countless others as a vote for their view of the world, a party led by a man who associates with terrorists and anti-Semites.

    See - we can all play this game. The reality is that Remain does not automatically have some sort of moral high ground permitting it to lecture others. No-one does. There are some odd alliances. There are some unpleasant people that I wouldn't give the time of day to. In all votes we find ourselves voting on the same side as people that we have no time for.

    But if you allow the bad men in the argument to crowd out the good we all lose. So the good men and women on both sides of the argument need to take control and not allow themselves to be bullied by their opponents seeking to make ad hominen arguments.

    There are respectable and honourable reasons for voting either Remain or Leave. There are respectable and honourable people on both sides of the argument. Let's stop pretending that the morality is only on one side. It's not true. It's insulting and the insufferable moral superiority displayed by some while ignoring the beams in their own eyes brings nothing but discredit to their cause.

    I know it's early, but post of the day.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986

    Scott_P said:

    If you turn this graph upside down, it shows tinfoil sales...

    @ianmulheirn: IMF on impact of Brexit. Unless you're a conspiracy theorist it's time to stop saying 'Remain is exaggerating' https://t.co/qx88Ih0i0W

    You don't understand much about economics, do you?

    That graph is designed to make you think the economy will shrink. But it is actually a reduction in growth over a *base* scenario, which in-and-of itself has some questionable assumptions.

    Under its "limited" scenario - in which Britain stayed in the EEA - the IMF forecast growth would slip from 2.2% to 1.4% next year. Significantly smaller drop than the Treasury forecast.

    Ooooh. Scary.

    Under its ‘adverse scenario’, economic growth will slow to 1.1 per cent this year. Then GDP shrinks by 0.8 per cent in 2017 before growing by just 0.6 per cent in 2018 and 1.7 per cent in 2019.

    Oh my word. How would we survive?

    But, most questionably, if we vote Remain, the IMF forecasts growth of 2.2 per cent next year, 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 2.1 per cent in 2019.

    In other words, it assumes the EU will be all fine and dandy, and smelling of roses. Which it won't be. A technical recession in the eurozone is very likely over the next few years.

    Vote Leave. Take Control.

    So more cuts and more tax rises.

    Will that be worth it? Depends on the deal we end up with.

    It will involve pushing out the baseline of the austerity programme by 2-3 years, which will probably happen even if we Remain. So, no.

    Is it worth it?

    For self-governance, absolutely yes.

    I appreciate others might calculate differently.

    So the entire austerity programme which Tory Leave ministers and MPs and many supporters have told us is unavoidable, the one that has done so much harm to working class people, turns out to be completely flexible and, therefore, completely avoidable.

    That nice Mme Lagarde who you praise so highly keeps warning us we need to do more fiscal consolidation. So does the EU commission.

    While complaining about austerity you're actually voting for more of it faster.

    That's down to our government, not the IMF or the EU.

  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Scott_P said:

    If you turn this graph upside down, it shows tinfoil sales...

    @ianmulheirn: IMF on impact of Brexit. Unless you're a conspiracy theorist it's time to stop saying 'Remain is exaggerating' https://t.co/qx88Ih0i0W

    You don't understand much about economics, do you?

    That graph is designed to make you think the economy will shrink. But it is actually a reduction in growth over a *base* scenario, which in-and-of itself has some questionable assumptions.

    Under its "limited" scenario - in which Britain stayed in the EEA - the IMF forecast growth would slip from 2.2% to 1.4% next year. Significantly smaller drop than the Treasury forecast.

    Ooooh. Scary.

    Under its ‘adverse scenario’, economic growth will slow to 1.1 per cent this year. Then GDP shrinks by 0.8 per cent in 2017 before growing by just 0.6 per cent in 2018 and 1.7 per cent in 2019.

    Oh my word. How would we survive?

    But, most questionably, if we vote Remain, the IMF forecasts growth of 2.2 per cent next year, 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 2.1 per cent in 2019.

    In other words, it assumes the EU will be all fine and dandy, and smelling of roses. Which it won't be. A technical recession in the eurozone is very likely over the next few years.

    Vote Leave. Take Control.

    So more cuts and more tax rises.

    Will that be worth it? Depends on the deal we end up with.

    It will involve pushing out the baseline of the austerity programme by 2-3 years, which will probably happen even if we Remain. So, no.

    Is it worth it?

    For self-governance, absolutely yes.

    I appreciate others might calculate differently.

    So the entire austerity programme which Tory Leave ministers and MPs and many supporters have told us is unavoidable, the one that has done so much harm to working class people, turns out to be completely flexible and, therefore, completely avoidable.

    That nice Mme Lagarde who you praise so highly keeps warning us we need to do more fiscal consolidation. So does the EU commission.

    While complaining about austerity you're actually voting for more of it faster.
    A highly popular theme on ConHome and amongst many Leave advocates, is that Osborne's "austerity" message is a bit of a con, and he isn't doing nearly enough to clamp down on public spending (quoting figures about rising debt and growth in Central Government spending).
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    Might be him, might not be him. (Actually it doesn't look a great deal like him)
    I think it's hm. And I think this will tilt a very finely balanced referendum to REMAIN

    Honestiy, as a thriller writer, you couldn't get away with this in fiction
    You cannot imagine how this is being played behind the scenes.

    I don't mean to be callous but what a great thriller

    a defenceless, beautiful woman brutally, horrifically murdered leaving a husband, and young children.... she a crusader of social justice.......the backdrop, days before a political vote that could change the course of history....the culprit linked to the extreme right and Nazism....a PM fighting for his political survival, his foes, desperate to avoid being dragged down into the mire with victory so close.......


    You might enjoy this...

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Aachen-Memorandum-Andrew-Roberts/dp/1849542961

    (Yes, it is the historian Andrew Roberts who wrote it)
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771
    Jobabob said:

    Our international reputation is suffering.

    There are none so blind as those who cannot see it.

    How ?

    Weve always been Perfidious Albion, this just strengthens the case.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Scott_P said:

    Here is Gove in the Sky debate making his "positive case"

    "the NHS ... faces increasing demand because we have uncontrolled free movement from the the European Union here.

    ...

    The EU has a plan to allow in 5 new countries, 88 million people.

    ...

    Our NHS will come under additional strain. Our NHS will be stronger is we leave the EU"

    Will any of the Leavers claim that is a positive case, as opposed to the xenophobic dogwhistle it so clearly is?

    The majority of the people coming here from the EU in search of work and unlikely to be large scale users of the NHS. It would be very surprising if they didn't contribute positively and significantly to the net financial position.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,028
    edited June 2016
    Mr. P, wanting lower migration is not xenophobia.

    Edited extra bit: indeed, it was in the 2015 Conservative Party manifesto.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960

    Pulling of Brexit will be a stunning political achievement. Perhaps the most stunning achievement since 1945. Farage got us the Referendum. Leave will have won it by using a Diet Coke version of the Farage formula. That's fine. It's voters decision and responsibility lies with us alone. However it seems perfectly reasonable to me to observe that ( a ) External observers will see this as a victory for the Farage view of the world. Because it will be. ( B ) that the wider political agenda of those that have driven Brexit will be emboldened if they win. You might not care about this or think it's a good thing. That's fine. But if you don't it's a perfectly valid reason to cast a Remain vote.

    If we win, it will be because of Michael Gove. Not Farage.

    And the lies Gove has knowingly told and endorsed about Turkey's imminent EU membership?

    Both sides have exaggerated.

    But Michael Gove has been making a very positive case in the debates.

    Tell lies about Turkey joining the EU in campaign literature and interviews, then make promises about more public spending, higher wages and cheaper housing if we leave the EU in debates. I'd call that the height of cynicism.

    The fact that the British government supports Turkish entry is good enough justification to use Turkey.

    If Cameron didn't want it used, he should have stood up on a number of occasions and supported the application.
  • Options
    EstobarEstobar Posts: 558

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @Cyclefree - I've certainly felt very isolated in my social group (AB professional graduates in London/SE) over the last few months.

    There are only two other close friends voting Leave out of my immediate/extended social group of c.20 close friends. Two are very reluctant Remainers. So we must be on, what, 15%?

    What do we have in common?

    Values. We believe things like sovereignty, democracy and nations matter.

    I think Remainers care about exactly the same things. They just have different views on them. I see this referendum, for example, as a democratic exercise in a sovereign country. But day to day, I believe it's in our best interests to cede sovereignty in certain areas. I understand that you think differently.

    I am a great believer in sharing power to achieve things which can best be done collectively. I think the EU has gone beyond that alas. But it is a very finely balanced decision in my view. It is less - for me anyway - about the position now, with which I could just about live and more about where the EU is going and whether I think Britain should go there too.

    BTW judging by your posts, I think we must have been living in Spain at around the same time. Were you in Barcelona?

    Lleida. Or Lerida as it was then.

    Ah. I was in Barcelona. Great times. A city I love.

    Barcelona back then was fantastic - so exciting, so beautiful, so alive. But I think it's not the place it was. I've been back there for work a few times recently and it seems very changed. Much more prescriptively Catalan and nationalist, much less outward-looking than it used to be; a sadder and diminished city. And so many tourists!
    I was going to reply to Felix. I've lived in a rural region of Spain and they were very much not welcoming of outsiders. Not in any way. As with some parts of France, especially the south-west, they can be thoroughly rude to 'foreigners.'

    The idea that racism isn't alive and kicking on continental Europe is way wide.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771

    Scott_P said:

    If you turn this graph upside down, it shows tinfoil sales...

    @ianmulheirn: IMF on impact of Brexit. Unless you're a conspiracy theorist it's time to stop saying 'Remain is exaggerating' https://t.co/qx88Ih0i0W

    You don't understand much about economics, do you?

    That graph is designed to make you think the economy will shrink. But it is actually a reduction in growth over a *base* scenario, which in-and-of itself has some questionable assumptions.

    Under its "limited" scenario - in which Britain stayed in the EEA - the IMF forecast growth would slip from 2.2% to 1.4% next year. Significantly smaller drop than the Treasury forecast.

    Ooooh. Scary.

    Under its ‘adverse scenario’, economic growth will slow to 1.1 per cent this year. Then GDP shrinks by 0.8 per cent in 2017 before growing by just 0.6 per cent in 2018 and 1.7 per cent in 2019.

    Oh my word. How would we survive?

    But, most questionably, if we vote Remain, the IMF forecasts growth of 2.2 per cent next year, 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 2.1 per cent in 2019.

    In other words, it assumes the EU will be all fine and dandy, and smelling of roses. Which it won't be. A technical recession in the eurozone is very likely over the next few years.

    Vote Leave. Take Control.

    So more cuts and more tax rises.

    Will that be worth it? Depends on the deal we end up with.

    It will involve pushing out the baseline of the austerity programme by 2-3 years, which will probably happen even if we Remain. So, no.

    Is it worth it?

    For self-governance, absolutely yes.

    I appreciate others might calculate differently.

    So the entire austerity programme which Tory Leave ministers and MPs and many supporters have told us is unavoidable, the one that has done so much harm to working class people, turns out to be completely flexible and, therefore, completely avoidable.

    That nice Mme Lagarde who you praise so highly keeps warning us we need to do more fiscal consolidation. So does the EU commission.

    While complaining about austerity you're actually voting for more of it faster.

    That's down to our government, not the IMF or the EU.

    Are you saying the IMF and EU arent recommending more fiscal consolidation ? If anything HMG is going slower than they want.

    While I appreciate you'd like to cherry pick - wouldnt we all - you get the full package from these organisations and part of that is to reduce government spending by more and faster.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,855
    edited June 2016
    alex. said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Remainers are all up early and on message with "Nigel Farage's Little England" this morning.

    Kind of you to remind us....it had quite slipped our minds.....but looks like the NYT are onto it!
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c9F0JBFPko
    "If people feel voting does not change anything then violence is the next step"
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986

    Pulling of Brexit will be a stunning political achievement. Perhaps the most stunning achievement since 1945. Farage got us the Referendum. Leave will have won it by using a Diet Coke version of the Farage formula. That's fine. It's voters decision and responsibility lies with us alone. However it seems perfectly reasonable to me to observe that ( a ) External observers will see this as a victory for the Farage view of the world. Because it will be. ( B ) that the wider political agenda of those that have driven Brexit will be emboldened if they win. You might not care about this or think it's a good thing. That's fine. But if you don't it's a perfectly valid reason to cast a Remain vote.

    If we win, it will be because of Michael Gove. Not Farage.

    And the lies Gove has knowingly told and endorsed about Turkey's imminent EU membership?

    Both sides have exaggerated.

    But Michael Gove has been making a very positive case in the debates.

    Tell lies about Turkey joining the EU in campaign literature and interviews, then make promises about more public spending, higher wages and cheaper housing if we leave the EU in debates. I'd call that the height of cynicism.

    Capital Economics (and I believe rcs) both believe Leaving would improve the public finances by savings on EU membership contributions, if not in the short-term. Stuart Rose thinks it will lead to higher wages. George Osborne thinks it will lead to a fall in house prices. Controlling immigration will have positive economic effects for some, and negatives for others.

    It is Government policy to encourage Turkish membership. I can't see it happening any time soon (and have said on here before I think the UK policy is to be in favour in theory, rather than in practice) but given it's an official EU candidate, nothing can be ruled out for good.

    Nope, there is absolutely nothing at all that can ever be ruled out for good. But Gove knows that Turkey is nowhere near joining the EU, that it is decades. He has repeatedly and mendaciously said otherwise. And he has done it for one reason only: to scare people into believing we are about to be overrun by millions of Moslems. It's a contemptible dogwhistle, I'm afraid.

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:

    After Massie and Toynbee, this is the latest article that Leavers are finding uncomfortable

    There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?


    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/17/united-kingdom-ukip-nigel-farage-leavers

    An excellent article by Marina Hyde. One that every civilized Leaver should think long and hard about. Rcs1000 SeanT DavidL..........
    Since the Massie article - which has clearly gained traction abroad - and despite coming from a LEAVE publication - there has been a degree of discomfiture and denial among some LEAVErs.

    To be clear, I don't think many of them are remotely nasty, or racist, or xenophobes - they are doing what they believe to be the right thing for themselves, their families and the country - from motives I can understand and see as reasonable and fair minded, albeit sometimes contradictory and possibly mis-guided.

    But that's not the point

    There are factions of the LEAVE campaign who are nasty racist xenophobes - people who applauded Farage's poster, neo-Nazis and the rest.

    And however unfair it is (and it is unfair) they - and we - will be tarred by association.

    And they can't (or won't) see it - though the vehemence of the protestations does give one pause.....
    Daves sharing a platform with guys who actually did sit down with people who committed murder and ethnic cleansing and egged them on.
    Dave egged on murder and ethnic cleansing?

    Do elucidate.....
    THEY are refusing to share the platform with Cameron .
    So there has been no platform sharing & you're just making stuff up.

    You are Michael Gove and I claim my 5 Turkish Lira......
    There they were walking together yesterday.....
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,855

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:

    After Massie and Toynbee, this is the latest article that Leavers are finding uncomfortable

    There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?


    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/17/united-kingdom-ukip-nigel-farage-leavers

    An excellent article by Marina Hyde. One that every civilized Leaver should think long and hard about. Rcs1000 SeanT DavidL..........
    Since the Massie article - which has clearly gained traction abroad - and despite coming from a LEAVE publication - there has been a degree of discomfiture and denial among some LEAVErs.

    To be clear, I don't think many of them are remotely nasty, or racist, or xenophobes - they are doing what they believe to be the right thing for themselves, their families and the country - from motives I can understand and see as reasonable and fair minded, albeit sometimes contradictory and possibly mis-guided.

    But that's not the point

    There are factions of the LEAVE campaign who are nasty racist xenophobes - people who applauded Farage's poster, neo-Nazis and the rest.

    And however unfair it is (and it is unfair) they - and we - will be tarred by association.

    And they can't (or won't) see it - though the vehemence of the protestations does give one pause.....
    Daves sharing a platform with guys who actually did sit down with people who committed murder and ethnic cleansing and egged them on.
    Dave egged on murder and ethnic cleansing?

    Do elucidate.....
    THEY are refusing to share the platform with Cameron .
    So there has been no platform sharing & you're just making stuff up.

    You are Michael Gove and I claim my 5 Turkish Lira......
    There they were walking together yesterday.....
    For reasons you know very well.......
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771
    Scott_P said:

    Here is Gove in the Sky debate making his "positive case"

    "the NHS ... faces increasing demand because we have uncontrolled free movement from the the European Union here.

    ...

    The EU has a plan to allow in 5 new countries, 88 million people.

    ...

    Our NHS will come under additional strain. Our NHS will be stronger is we leave the EU"

    Will any of the Leavers claim that is a positive case, as opposed to the xenophobic dogwhistle it so clearly is?

    ROFL that's not a dogwhistle it's a thumping big brass band, and you don't know how to respond to it.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:

    If you turn this graph upside down, it shows tinfoil sales...

    @ianmulheirn: IMF on impact of Brexit. Unless you're a conspiracy theorist it's time to stop saying 'Remain is exaggerating' https://t.co/qx88Ih0i0W

    . Take Control.

    So more cuts and more tax rises.

    Will that be worth it? Depends on the deal we end up with.

    It will involve pushing out the baseline of the austerity programme by 2-3 years, which will probably happen even if we Remain. So, no.

    Is it worth it?

    For self-governance, absolutely yes.

    I appreciate others might calculate differently.

    So the entire austerity programme which Tory Leave ministers and MPs and many supporters have told us is unavoidable, the one that has done so much harm to working class people, turns out to be completely flexible and, therefore, completely avoidable.

    That nice Mme Lagarde who you praise so highly keeps warning us we need to do more fiscal consolidation. So does the EU commission.

    While complaining about austerity you're actually voting for more of it faster.
    A highly popular theme on ConHome and amongst many Leave advocates, is that Osborne's "austerity" message is a bit of a con, and he isn't doing nearly enough to clamp down on public spending (quoting figures about rising debt and growth in Central Government spending).
    Government expenditure is up year on year, and has been so every year since 2010. The big change since then is the doubling in spending allocated to the "Department" of Debt Interest, requiring other departmental budgets to be cut in line with the debt interest growth.

    "Austerity" is what happened in Ireland and Spain - sharp reductions in govt spending. That's certainly not what's happened in the UK, where the govt have held spending as low as possible commensurate with maintaining economic growth and job creation. They've not done a bad job, given the mess they inherited from Gordon Brown.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
    Goodly morn PB!

    Campaign back in full swing on here I see. :smiley:
  • Options
    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Johnstone has been the biggest Tory campaigner for immediate Turkish entry. He even made a TV programme advocating it called 'The Dream of Rome".

    When caught flat footed by Salmond in the Huffington Post debate (one of many times) this week he claimed that he now wanted immediate Turkish entry into an EU that the Uk had left!!!!
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    I don’t like Farage. He repels me and I would never vote for him.

    But, I can see (i) he is charismatic because he has led a party to ~ 4 million votes in a General Election (nearly twice the size of the LibDem vote) from nowhere and (ii) he is brave, because there are plenty of people who would do him physical harm (cf, Pim Fortuyn).

    People repelled by Farage would do better to think about why he is attracting ~ 4 million votes in a time of alleged prosperity, increasing employment and GDP.

    I think blaming Farage for the lamentable state of the Referendum campaigns is completely wrong. The campaigns are in the gutter because everyone else has gotten down to join Farage in the gutter.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    I take it that those Tories who are angrily denouncing Vote Leave for campaigning on immigration are thoroughly ashamed of their own party for campaigning on promises to reduce immigration, in 2010 and 2015.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986

    Scott_P said:

    If you turn this graph upside down, it shows tinfoil sales...

    @ianmulheirn: IMF on impact of Brexit. Unless you're a conspiracy theorist it's time to stop saying 'Remain is exaggerating' https://t.co/qx88Ih0i0W

    You don't understand much about economics, do you?

    That graph is designed to make you think the economy will shrink. But it is actually a reduction in growth over a *base* scenario, which in-and-of itself has some questionable assumptions.

    Under its "limited" scenario - in which Britain stayed in the EEA - the IMF forecast growth would slip from 2.2% to 1.4% next year. Significantly smaller drop than the Treasury forecast.

    Ooooh. Scary.

    Under itsnt in 2019.

    Oh my word. How would we survive?

    But, most2019.

    In other words, iover the next few years.

    Vote Leave. Take Control.

    So more cuts and more tax rises.

    Will that be worth it? Depends on the deal we end up with.

    It will involve pushing out the baseline of the austerity programme by 2-3 years, which will probably happen even if we Remain. So, no.

    Is it worth it?

    For self-governance, absolutely yes.

    I appreciate others might calculate differently.

    So the entire austerity programme which Tory Leave ministers and MPs and many supporters have told us is unavoidable, the one that has done so much harm to working class people, turns out to be completely flexible and, therefore, completely avoidable.

    That nice Mme Lagarde who you praise so highly keeps warning us we need to do more fiscal consolidation. So does the EU commission.

    While complaining about austerity you're actually voting for more of it faster.

    That's down to our government, not the IMF or the EU.

    Are you saying the IMF and EU arent recommending more fiscal consolidation ? If anything HMG is going slower than they want.

    While I appreciate you'd like to cherry pick - wouldnt we all - you get the full package from these organisations and part of that is to reduce government spending by more and faster.

    No, I'm saying that it's entirely up to our government to decide what to do. Neither the IMF or the EU can dictate our economic or fiscal policy. We are in control. And it is now clear that those leading the Tory Leave campaign believe that the 2020 deficit elimination plan they so enthusiastically endorsed - and which has done such harm to ordinary working people - was (is) entirely unnecessary.

  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986
    Sean_F said:

    I take it that those Tories who are angrily denouncing Vote Leave for campaigning on immigration are thoroughly ashamed of their own party for campaigning on promises to reduce immigration, in 2010 and 2015.

    Dave and George are certainly reaping what they sowed.

  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,939
    edited June 2016
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:
    One can easily turn that around. Every civilised Remainer should think long and hard about voting for an EU which will tolerate 50% youth unemployment, an EU that is seeking through its agreement with various internet companies to limit free speech, (something which is out of date, according to our very own NPalmer), an EU that thinks it permissible to lie in pursuit of a greater cause (cf Juncker), an EU that consists of states which contain real fascist parties in them, truly descended from the fascists of WW2 and represented in the EU Parliament, a vote for people like Gerry Adams. Every civilised Remainer should realise that a vote for Remain will be taken by Labour and countless others as a vote for their view of the world, a party led by a man who associates with terrorists and anti-Semites.

    There are respectable and honourable reasons for voting either Remain or Leave. There are respectable and honourable people on both sides of the argument. Let's stop pretending that the morality is only on one side. It's not true. It's insulting and the insufferable moral superiority displayed by some while ignoring the beams in their own eyes brings nothing but discredit to their cause.

    Of course there are arguments on both sides. But we're not choosing between holiday destinations.

    People don't see us as anti semitic ...a tolerator of youth unemployment ...a country conspiring with internet companies to limit free speech... a country being part of a union which has states which have parties that are descended from fascists.....a country that is part of a union that lies to us...a country that tolerates people like Gerry Adams....

    We're making a single decision and for that we need to ignore the trivial and see the bigger picture. The bigger picture for a country of the size and standing of the UK is what will it do to our reputation and standing in the world and how will other countries react to us and interconnect with us.

    We are seen as a tolerant and vibrant liberal democracy who punches well above our weight. It's a reputation that has taken decades to acquire and if we vote Leave it'll be lost in a day. We'll be seen as squalid intolerant xenophobes.

    And that's the bigger picture.



  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Pulling of Brexit will be a stunning political achievement. Perhaps the most stunning achievement since 1945. Farage got us the Referendum. Leave will have won it by using a Diet Coke version of the Farage formula. That's fine. It's voters decision and responsibility lies with us alone. However it seems perfectly reasonable to me to observe that ( a ) External observers will see this as a victory for the Farage view of the world. Because it will be. ( B ) that the wider political agenda of those that have driven Brexit will be emboldened if they win. You might not care about this or think it's a good thing. That's fine. But if you don't it's a perfectly valid reason to cast a Remain vote.

    If we win, it will be because of Michael Gove. Not Farage.

    And the lies Gove has knowingly told and endorsed about Turkey's imminent EU membership?

    Both sides have exaggerated.

    But Michael Gove has been making a very positive case in the debates.

    Tell lies about Turkey joining the EU in campaign literature and interviews, then make promises about more public spending, higher wages and cheaper housing if we leave the EU in debates. I'd call that the height of cynicism.

    It is Government policy to encourage Turkish membership. I can't see it happening any time soon (and have said on here before I think the UK policy is to be in favour in theory, rather than in practice) but given it's an official EU candidate, nothing can be ruled out for good.

    Nope, there is absolutely nothing at all that can ever be ruled out for good. But Gove knows that Turkey is nowhere near joining the EU, that it is decades. He has repeatedly and mendaciously said otherwise. And he has done it for one reason only: to scare people into believing we are about to be overrun by millions of Moslems. It's a contemptible dogwhistle, I'm afraid.

    Good morning all.

    A bit tetchy already. How disappointing.

    In fairness, we have no way of knowing how long it might be before Turkey joins. Politically, Erdogan is the primary stumbling block at the moment. But from an EU perspective (especially a future EU that develops its own foreign policy and armed forces) it makes sense, in the same way that Turkey being a NATO member makes sense.

    One the questions my elder sister asked me on Turkey after I explained the multifarious reasons why Turkey in the EU was unlikely had me stumped. So, I'll ask it here. Are there any countries other than Switzerland who, having started the accession process, ultimately didn't join the EU?
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:
    One can easily turn that around. Every civilised Remainer should think long and hard about voting for an EU which will tolerate 50% youth unemployment, an EU that is seeking through its agreement with various internet companies to limit free speech, (something which is out of date, according to our very own NPalmer), an EU that thinks it permissible to lie in pursuit of a greater cause (cf Juncker), an EU that consists of states which contain real fascist parties in them, truly descended from the fascists of WW2 and represented in the EU Parliament, a vote for people like Gerry Adams. Every civilised Remainer should realise that a vote for Remain will be taken by Labour and countless others as a vote for their view of the world, a party led by a man who associates with terrorists and anti-Semites.

    There are respectable and honourable reasons for voting either Remain or Leave. There are respectable and honourable people on both sides of the argument. Let's stop pretending that the morality is only on one side. It's not true. It's insulting and the insufferable moral superiority displayed by some while ignoring the beams in their own eyes brings nothing but discredit to their cause.

    Of course there are arguments on both sides. But we're not choosing between holiday destinations.

    People don't see us as anti semitic ...a tolerator of youth unemployment ...a country conspiring with internet companies to limit free speech... a country being part of a union which has states which have parties that are descended from fascists.....a country that is part of a union that lies to us...a country that tolerates people like Gerry Adams....

    We're making a single decision and for that we need to ignore the trivial and see the bigger picture. The bigger picture for a country of the size and standing of the UK is what will it do to our reputation and standing in the world and how will other countries react to us and interconnect with us.

    We are seen as a tolerant and vibrant liberal democracy who punches well above our weight. It's a reputation that has taken decades to acquire and if we vote Leave it'll be lost in a day. We'll be seen as squalid intolerant xenophobes.

    And that's the bigger picture



    Nowt so deaf as those who won't hear....
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986
    Sandpit said:

    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:

    If you turn this graph upside down, it shows tinfoil sales...

    @ianmulheirn: IMF on impact of Brexit. Unless you're a conspiracy theorist it's time to stop saying 'Remain is exaggerating' https://t.co/qx88Ih0i0W

    . Take Control.

    So more cuts and more tax rises.

    Will that be worth it? Depends on the deal we end up with.

    It will involve pushing out the baseline of the austerity programme by 2-3 years, which will probably happen even if we Remain. So, no.

    Is it worth it?

    For self-governance, absolutely yes.

    I appreciate others might calculate differently.

    So the entire austerity programme which Tory Leave ministers and MPs and many supporters have told us is unavoidable, the one that has done so much harm to working class people, turns out to be completely flexible and, therefore, completely avoidable.

    That nice Mme Lagarde who you praise so highly keeps warning us we need to do more fiscal consolidation. So does the EU commission.

    While complaining about austerity you're actually voting for more of it faster.
    A highly popular theme on ConHome and amongst many Leave advocates, is that Osborne's "austerity" message is a bit of a con, and he isn't doing nearly enough to clamp down on public spending (quoting figures about rising debt and growth in Central Government spending).
    Government expenditure is up year on year, and has been so every year since 2010. The big change since then is the doubling in spending allocated to the "Department" of Debt Interest, requiring other departmental budgets to be cut in line with the debt interest growth.

    "Austerity" is what happened in Ireland and Spain - sharp reductions in govt spending. That's certainly not what's happened in the UK, where the govt have held spending as low as possible commensurate with maintaining economic growth and job creation. They've not done a bad job, given the mess they inherited from Gordon Brown.

    And now Tory Leavers are telling us it was all unnecessary. It turns out we don't have to eliminate the deficit by 2020.

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814
    Sean_F said:

    I take it that those Tories who are angrily denouncing Vote Leave for campaigning on immigration are thoroughly ashamed of their own party for campaigning on promises to reduce immigration, in 2010 and 2015.

    Their objection is that it might win the referendum for Leave.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,702

    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Mr. P, wanting lower migration is not xenophobia.

    Edited extra bit: indeed, it was in the 2015 Conservative Party manifesto.

    "Vote Leave to stop 88 million foreigners using our NHS"

    If there is another word for that apart from xenophobia, I don't know what it is.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986
    John_M said:

    Pulling of Brexit will be a stunning political achievement. Perhaps the most stunning achievement since 1945. Farage got us the Referendum. Leave will have won it by using a Diet Coke version of the Farage formula. That's fine. It's voters decision and responsibility lies with us alone. However it seems perfectly reasonable to me to observe that ( a ) External observers will see this as a victory for the Farage view of the world. Because it will be. ( B ) that the wider political agenda of those that have driven Brexit will be emboldened if they win. You might not care about this or think it's a good thing. That's fine. But if you don't it's a perfectly valid reason to cast a Remain vote.

    If we win, it will be because of Michael Gove. Not Farage.

    And the lies Gove has knowingly told and endorsed about Turkey's imminent EU membership?

    Both sides have exaggerated.

    But Michael Gove has been making a very positive case in the debates.

    Tell lies about Turkey joining the EU in campaign literature and interviews, then make promises about more public spending, higher wages and cheaper housing if we leave the EU in debates. I'd call that the height of cynicism.

    It is Government policy to encourage Turkish membership. I can't see it happening any time soon (and have said on here before I think the UK policy is to be in favour in theory, rather than in practice) but given it's an official EU candidate, nothing can be ruled out for good.

    Nope, there is absolutely nothing at all that can ever be ruled out for good. But Gove knows that Turkey is nowhere near joining the EU, that it is decades It's a contemptible dogwhistle, I'm afraid.

    Good morning all.

    A bit tetchy already. How disappointing.

    In fairness, we have no way of knowing how long it might be before Turkey joins. Politically, Erdogan is the primary stumbling block at the moment. But from an EU perspective (especially a future EU that develops its own foreign policy and armed forces) it makes sense, in the same way that Turkey being a NATO member makes sense.

    One the questions my elder sister asked me on Turkey after I explained the multifarious reasons why Turkey in the EU was unlikely had me stumped. So, I'll ask it here. Are there any countries other than Switzerland who, having started the accession process, ultimately didn't join the EU?

    We don't know because they haven't all joined yet. Did Noreay and Iceland ever start the process?

  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    alex. said:



    A highly popular theme on ConHome and amongst many Leave advocates, is that Osborne's "austerity" message is a bit of a con, and he isn't doing nearly enough to clamp down on public spending (quoting figures about rising debt and growth in Central Government spending).

    It's a structural problem about referendums that they need a Swiss-style tradition that the Government will do its best to implement them if they succeed, and will explain how. Without that and without any party close to a majority actually favouring one outcome, it's hard to say how that outcome will be implemented. We've had some shots at it now - Boris and Gove with their alternative programme, Osborne with his horror budget - but there's no real prospect that any of them have a majority in Parliament. or that early elections would produce such a majority.

    We just don't know. According to temperament, people may find that exciting or scary.
  • Options
    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Anecdote Alert
    I was out with a mate who works high up in the treasury last night.
    They are preparing for brexit and evidently its chaos as Osbourne had instructed the department not to initiate the exit planning until
    Very late in the day.
    He also put £1000 on leave yesterday at 7/4
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Sandpit said:

    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:

    If you turn this graph upside down, it shows tinfoil sales...

    @ianmulheirn: IMF on impact of Brexit. Unless you're a conspiracy theorist it's time to stop saying 'Remain is exaggerating' https://t.co/qx88Ih0i0W

    . Take Control.

    So more cuts and more tax rises.

    Will that be worth it? Depends on the deal we end up with.

    It will involve pushing out the baseline of the austerity programme by 2-3 years, which will probably happen even if we Remain. So, no.

    Is it worth it?

    For self-governance, absolutely yes.

    I appreciate others might calculate differently.

    So the entire austerity programme which Tory Leave ministers and MPs and many supporters have told us is unavoidable, the one that has done so much harm to working class people, turns out to be completely flexible and, therefore, completely avoidable.

    That nice Mme Lagarde who you praise so highly keeps warning us we need to do more fiscal consolidation. So does the EU commission.

    While complaining about austerity you're actually voting for more of it faster.
    A highly popular theme on ConHome and amongst many Leave advocates, is that Osborne's "austerity" message is a bit of a con, and he isn't doing nearly enough to clamp down on public spending (quoting figures about rising debt and growth in Central Government spending).

    "Austerity" is what happened in Ireland and Spain - sharp reductions in govt spending. That's certainly not what's happened in the UK, where the govt have held spending as low as possible commensurate with maintaining economic growth and job creation. They've not done a bad job, given the mess they inherited from Gordon Brown.

    And now Tory Leavers are telling us it was all unnecessary. It turns out we don't have to eliminate the deficit by 2020.

    I don't get your point here. I'm disappointed that Osborne wasn't more aggressive on deficit reduction. He's repeatedly moved his target backwards. There's certainly no hard deadline in 2020 - it's Osborne's current judgement call. He may have felt that it was the right thing to do, given that the markets haven't reacted to our still colossal deficit spending.

    The price we're paying is that extra £23 billion p.a. in debt servicing costs. In total we're now paying ~£70 billion to service our debts, which is around 3% of GDP or ~9% of public spending.

    So, no necessity but yes, pretty significant opportunity cost.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:

    After Massie and Toynbee, this is the latest article that Leavers are finding uncomfortable

    There are many people I respect and admire voting leave – there are people in my family voting leave. I understand their reasons. But they must stomach the reality that a vote for leave will be taken by Farage and countless others as a vote for him, a vote for his posters, a vote for his ideas, a vote for his quiet malice, a vote for his smallness in the face of vast horrors. Is it worth it?


    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/17/united-kingdom-ukip-nigel-farage-leavers

    An excellent article by Marina Hyde. One that every civilized Leaver should think long and hard about. Rcs1000 SeanT DavidL..........
    One can easily turn that around. Every civilised Remainer should think long and hard about voting for an EU which will tolerate 50% youth unemployment, an EU that is seeking through its agreement with various internet companies to limit free speech, (something which is out of date, according to our very own NPalmer), an EU that thinks it permissible to lie in pursuit of a greater cause (cf Juncker), an EU that consists of states which contain real fascist parties in them, truly descended from the fascists of WW2 and represented in the EU Parliament, a vote for people like Gerry Adams. Every civilised Remainer should realise that a vote for Remain will be taken by Labour and countless others as a vote for their view of the world, a party led by a man who associates with terrorists and anti-Semites.

    See - we can all play this game. The reality is that Remain does not automatically have some sort of moral high ground permitting it to lecture others. No-one does. There are some odd alliances. There are some unpleasant people that I wouldn't give the time of day to. In all votes we find ourselves voting on the same side as people that we have no time for.

    But if you allow the bad men in the argument to crowd out the good we all lose. So the good men and women on both sides of the argument need to take control and not allow themselves to be bullied by their opponents seeking to make ad hominen arguments.

    There are respectable and honourable reasons for voting either Remain or Leave. There are respectable and honourable people on both sides of the argument. Let's stop pretending that the morality is only on one side. It's not true. It's insulting and the insufferable moral superiority displayed by some while ignoring the beams in their own eyes brings nothing but discredit to their cause.

    In that spirit, please don't misquote me. I've not said that free speech is out of date. Citation please.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tyson said:

    tyson said:



    Local Hero!!!- sentimental shit


    @above

    I have just objectively critiqued the above 80's classics for you



    You have gone from being just deluded to my all time arch enemy Mr Tyson. You can slag off democracy all you like but when you start slagging off one of the greatest films ever made you really have crossed a line!!!!

    In jest of course but still DEADLY SERIOUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    (You can tell by the number of exclamation marks)
    You and Southam- you are a couple of sentimental saddos. A bit of mawkish music, a red telephone box on a Scottish beach, a box of hankies and that's it, you are completely goners

    Can I add Manon des Sources to the list... we used to watch it in school (but the beak always used to fast forward through the Emmanuelle Beart dance scene...
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,444
    alex. said:

    A highly popular theme on ConHome and amongst many Leave advocates, is that Osborne's "austerity" message is a bit of a con, and he isn't doing nearly enough to clamp down on public spending (quoting figures about rising debt and growth in Central Government spending).

    I've heard this a lot from Tories. "There is no austerity, no cuts" they say. "See how spending is increasing". We'll yes and no.

    Yes, you are spending more on the NHS. But you've still made dreadful cuts to the front line. How are bother possible? Inefficiency. Marketing the NHS, organising groups of doctors to spend their time not being doctors but administrators of vast contracts that need to be tendered and invoiced and monitored - that's a huge cost. Nor has the value of your increase matched the cost increase of new services treatments and higher demand.

    The same with welfare. Idiot contracts to "retraining" companies who can't train people for jobs that don't exist. Housing benefit explosion because of the cost of renting explosion. You've reduced poor people to peunary and led disabled people to suicide and insist none of it is true because you are spending more.

    If you believe the paper economy of Osborne - now rightly described by his own side as a whopping deception - you'd think everything is awesome and the reports of kids going to school hungry or the collapse of performance in the NHS or people applying for hundreds of jobs being sanctioned for not applying for enough on Christmas Day, they all must be wrong because Everything Is Awesome.

    Why did Osborne's punishment budget create such outrage? Why haven't the threats as to what will happen to people if we vote to Leave resonated? Because the Tory party have already brought ruin upon these service and millions of people. You can't threaten people who have been reduced to nothing.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,444
    Incidentally, is there any chance of a mobile/tablet friendly version of this board? It's not the friendliest of sites for small screens.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,855
    Charles said:

    tyson said:

    tyson said:



    Local Hero!!!- sentimental shit


    @above

    I have just objectively critiqued the above 80's classics for you



    You have gone from being just deluded to my all time arch enemy Mr Tyson. You can slag off democracy all you like but when you start slagging off one of the greatest films ever made you really have crossed a line!!!!

    In jest of course but still DEADLY SERIOUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    (You can tell by the number of exclamation marks)
    You and Southam- you are a couple of sentimental saddos. A bit of mawkish music, a red telephone box on a Scottish beach, a box of hankies and that's it, you are completely goners

    Can I add Manon des Sources to the list... we used to watch it in school (but the beak always used to fast forward through the Emmanuelle Beart dance scene...
    I was going to suggest that yesterday - the other Pagnol films 'La Gloire de mon Pere' and 'Le Chateau de ma Mere' have the same lovely scenery, but not much plot to talk of.

    And if I can second foxinsox's suggestion of 'Babette's Feast' - glorious!
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    arirangarirang Posts: 3
    Thomas Mair has just given his name in court as "Death to traitors, freedom to Britain".

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    arirang said:

    Thomas Mair has just given his name in court as "Death to traitors, freedom to Britain".

    "has just" ?

    Wasn't it a few hours ago ?
This discussion has been closed.