politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EURef might be more like the AV referendum and not the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EURef might be more like the AV referendum and not the Indyref
A lot of people, myself included, have often drawn comparisons between the EU referendum and the Scottish independence referendum, but perhaps the better comparison is with the AV referendum of 2011.
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*retires to the saloon bar with palpitations*
[or before] and given the current alternatives that is pretty piss poor for the country.
A Leave result would also remove a large portion of the UKIP support.
I can easily see a Tory party winning in 2020 off the back of a Leave victory.
'If Leave do win and then effectively take over the party then the Tories lose the centre ground and power. If remain win many 'Leavers won't accept the result and the tories could split and will lose power.'
Can't see a problem for the Tories in the event that Leave loses provided that Cameron is replaced by a Leave leader.
Voted Yes to AV in 2011
Cambridge
Camden
Islington
Lambeth
Southwark
Oxford
Edinburgh Central
Glasgow Kelvin
Labrokes book on highest Remain in the EU vote
Edinburgh 9/4
Hackney 7/2
Southwark 5/1
Islington 6/1
Cambridge 7/1
Can't quite put my finger on what they have in common.
Not even bothering to say extremism on the headline:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-36560895
'That seems wildly optimistic to me, in the vein of those who thought the Tories would remain civil during this campaign. The wrong type of leaver could cause significant problems, as some will be seeing this as the chance to ditch the Cameroon project, and others will want to maintain it in every way but for the Leaving part.'
During the past 12 months am not exactly sure what the Cameroon project is,other than bringing forward proposals and at the first sign of trouble ditching them.
A Leave leader would be a reminder to Junker & co that if they want to ram an EU army et al down our throats then we can play the EU game & have another referendum.
I'm not sure the best response to an "attack on democracy" is effectively to suspend it. Of course Labour would easily retain the seat but there ought to be a contest so the new MP has a mandate rather than simply be gifted the seat.
Presumably if it had not happened then few would disagree that it would be legitimate to publicly criticise the tone of the campaign and make inferences that such campaigning has the potential to stoke tensions and lead to unfortunate consequences.
Why then when the fears of what could occur actually crystallize into dreadful reality does such criticism suddenly cease to be legitimate?
In which case things that politics used to be about such as inflation, unemployment and interest rates make a comeback, Leave get the blame and we get PM Corbyn.
'Stroke of genius by Remain to suspend campaigning for several days. The news stations and print media will be giving interview after interview to politicians who can make all sorts of claims. Meanwhile Leave are unable to start up the campaign for fear of being branded insensitive.'
On the other hand it keeps Carney, Osborne & project fear off the media and anyway half the country is switched off enjoying the football.
Massive call by JP Morgan if true.
There's another 6 days to go.
But that problem doesn't go away with a Leave leader. There may be some confusion over exactly what the Cameroon project is or was, but there were people implacably opposed to it nevertheless, and if a Leave leader doesn't play ball with people of the same ilk and do exactly what they want, then the government will be just as weak as it was before.
I genuinely hope whoever takes over proves competent, but it is a real worry that, given I do accept there will negative consequences to Leaving, we might well have an even crapper government.
And I trust JP Morgan's analysis on Brexit winning as much as I trust their forecasts of what would happen to them the UK economy, if we Leave.
But, nevertheless, it is interesting.
TBH I think the Labour campaign is probably done. With tributes in the commons Monday afternoon they won't be doing anything, that only leaves the last 2 days. I argued our best strategy would be to not cause, Paignton, am appalled that it's taken the brutal murder of an MP by that "man" to bring it about
What's not to like?
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=12h
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=12h
NOT (At time of posting)
Where is @Scot_P when you need him to tell you the markets are going to hell in a hand cart?
Has she ever expressed any empathy towards people who live in a semi in Watford ?
If not then why should they be concerned about her ?
Edit: although that answer does show why we should also ignore prophecies of armageddon
Since 1948 we have quadrupled gdp per capita in this country. Even the most pessimistic of the IFS models talks about lower absolute growth upon Brexit. Not an actual sustained decline. I think most commentators expect market turmoil, and a likely recession. But we've had those before, under considerably worse circumstances (e.g. 1980/1).
'I actually think the biggest beneficiaries of a Leave vote would be the libdems.'
Too much baggage.
Biggest laugh I've had all day.
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=123450&area=lon
Notice the difference between the 'trendy' Labour areas and the 'ethnic' Labour areas:
Hackney N 178
Hornsey 159
..
Barking 4
Hayes 0
Likewise outside London the difference between 'trendy' Labour and wwc Labour:
Bristol W 140
Brighton P 123
..
Redcar 0
Doncaster N 0
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=123450&area=eng
Well, were I his mother I'd be asking for the money spent on his education back. And this is meant to be a star pupil at Oxford. Give me strength.
We must drive "division" out of our politics.
What the hell does the cretin think politics is? Division is the essence of it. How power is divided. How countries and classes are divided. The division between the rich and the poor. The division between labour and capital. The division between Labour and the Conservatives. The division between worker and owner. The division between town and country. The division between the property owner and the renter.
You can't drive it out. You have to manage it. There are, always have been and always will be competing interests in any group that numbers more than 1. You learn to manage those and sometimes, quite often, in fact, you have to choose.
This is just mush and drivel.
And as for hatred, sure hatred is not a nice emotion. But it can be quite a useful emotion. Hatred of the poverty in Victorian Britain was what drove some of those who worked hard to alleviate it. Unless someone incites violence they can hate away. I don't think much of people who shout "Tory scum" at people attending conferences but they're free to do it and I'd rather have that sort of abuse than seek to drive it out of public life.
As for intolerance, what does that even mean in this context? I'm pretty intolerant of those who seek to undermine free speech. Is that sort of intolerance meant to be driven out of public life?
As this Lib Dem (along with a small but significant minority) will be voting LEAVE, I'm not sure all the sad old stereotypes of LDs being Europhiles has anything other than trolling value.
It's also worth reminding some on here Nick Clegg might have supported AV but it has never been Lib Dem policy and I voted NO as did, I suspect, a number of LDs.
Back to more immediate matters, out walking with Mrs Stodge this evening and discussing the EU Referendum (she's a LEAVE supporter too which helps domestic harmony no end). It occurred to me that in trying to finally put an end to a question which has afflicted the Conservative Party for 30 years, David Cameron unwittingly raised a question which has bothered many in Britain for sixty years.
A referendum on the EU has been replaced by a referendum on immigration.
Also presumably we can get our fishing back. In those circumstances we could see a reinvigoration of industry in our fishing ports. That would be good as that will also help with the balance of payments.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/11/uk-voters-back-norway-style-brexit-poll-reveals/
I have heard exactly no one calling for a cancellation of the referendum, and I'm on a train to Cambridge.
Perhaps non-anecdote alert would have been a better title.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thoughtcrime
We must all think as we're told to and do as we're told to.
In all seriousness, and I really mean this, the more I think about it the more convinced I am that only a Leave vote can restore both our politics and strengthen the UK.
There's no evidence of an unusual intelligence in his remarks. I wouldn't have minded platitudes, but those sentiments don't even qualify as such. Vapid bilge springs to mind.
I think people will tolerate and accept immigration if they think they have some say.
I don't think anyone apart from the avid Europhiles loves the EU, but like the ideas of:
1. Trade.
2. Stopping loons in Europe turning it into a protectionist superpower.
However for a lot of people we see the loss of sovereignty and opportunity too much of a cost when in reality we have been able to do little to slow the mad EU train.
They don't care about enraging Leavers anymore. They are hoping to motivate the Remain base to turnout, and sway a couple of percent of the still undecided to swing it.
(Good evening, everyone)
'Actually as has been pointed out the EEA option does allow us to control immigration even within the rules of free movement of people in ways that being in the EU does not.'
How apart from an emergency brake ?
'Also presumably we can get our fishing back. In those circumstances we could see a reinvigoration of industry in our fishing ports.'
Not sure about EEA, but apparently with EFTA we get back fishing, agriculture,no more European court and can negotiate our own non EU trade deals.
But both by-elections and uncontested elections were far more common then, in any case.
In that constituency alone, it was the third uncontested by-election in just 13 months!
Ergo, implying Leave have responsibility for it, and should lose the referendum accordingly.