politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori phone poll sees a 10% swing to Leave as Leave ta

Whilst I am not confident for Leave winning, OGH is really clutching at anything, isn't he?

Mike Smithson‏ @MSmithsonPB
Opinium & ComRes, the only pollsters showing REMAIN leads, were the most accurate at GE2015

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

Since we're in anecdote mode. I've just had two small business men round = 1handyman 1 heating engineer.

The handyman in his 50s wants someone like Thatcher back in charge, seemed quite well across the issues - and wants to vote Leave - he's still not quite sure and wondering about his kids. His daughter in her 20s is voting Leave.

The heating guy is 40s has totally gone off Cameron and hates all the EU paperwork/pretty informed too. He's certain Leave and doing it for his kids who are just coming up to 18.

Both of them talked about having control back, having a strong leader who'd take the country forward. Both concerned about immigration/mentioned knowing totally overqualified EUers doing low skilled work and stopping our youngsters getting jobs.

Most interesting half an hour. I didn't say which way I was voting.

Blimey, we have had various local builders, carpenters, plumbers, electricians etc doing our basement up for the last few weeks. Not one has ever mentioned the referendum. I live in a deep, dark black hole.

Sounds like tradesmen aren't doing a good job then .

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

rottenborough said:

Owen Jones @OwenJones84
Senior Remain figure expects poll swingback "unless the world's turned on its head." It has. Look at politics in the US, Europe and the UK.

In the US, Hillary is 11pts clear. After swinging back...

That was with Bloomberg which consistently has the largest lead for Democrats

The previous Bloomberg poll had her 18% up.

We've seen it all before ...

https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/743406737374519296

GideonWise said:

A utilitarian view on ethics for the EU debate is this.

Remainers are for total utilitarianism whereas Leavers are for average utilitarianism. The two have been used to think about optimum population sizes, in economics.

The difference? A bit like the difference between GDP and GDP per capita.

If we increase our population it increases our GDP overall but it has the potential to drive down GDP per capita. Particularly if those coming in are low skilled. We could end up with the 'repugnant conclusion' - whereby we increase our GDP by a LOT but we have lots and lots of people with a tiny bit of income/utility.

People in the real world understand this philosophical abstract in real-life. They recognise quite easily that with finite resources, more people simply leads to pressure on housing, schooling and the NHS which drives everyone's quality of life down. Therefore they are average utilitarians. This can happen at the same time as the economy growing - sound familiar?

The government, big business and those who can cream it off at the top are total utilitarians.

For what it is worth, Bentham would be for total, JS Mill for average IMO.

Too simple. It's quite possible that those coming in lower the overall GDP per capita, but raise the GDP per capita of the natives, thus leaving everyone better off.

PlatoSaid said:

Gordon's message is such a load of GE twaddle. Not addressing the issues at all.

I think some one woke him up and he thought he was back in the General Election of 2010.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Jobabob said:

Time for a Hillary thread?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

It's all EURef from here on unless Hillary is indicted or Trump's todger makes an appearance

Not out of the question with him showing up next week at the Leave Sheffield rally

Theuniondivvie said:

SouthamObserver said:

Is Kate Hoey still a part of the Farage Leave campaign? If so, she should either immediately disown that poster or be expelled from the Labour party. That poster is among the most disgusting I have ever seen. Absolutely repulsive. What a revolting man Nigel Farage is, standing there grinning in front of something that demonises people fleeing from mass-murdering psychopaths.

She was on the boat with Nige yesterday, so I'd guess yes, very much still part of the Farage campaign.

She shames Labour as much as Ken Livingstone does.

Casino_Royale said:

Whilst I am not confident for Leave winning, OGH is really clutching at anything, isn't he?

Mike Smithson‏ @MSmithsonPB
Opinium & ComRes, the only pollsters showing REMAIN leads, were the most accurate at GE2015

On the other hand, ComRes and Opinium were hopelessly wrong in the recent local elections. At the beginning of May, an Opinium poll gave the Tories an 8% lead -- then a few days later, Labour beat the Tories by 1% in the elections.

The local elections suggest YouGov is currently the most accurate pollster, they were the only ones to correctly detect a small Labour lead (although they did overestimate UKIP by quite a bit).

Jobabob said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Jobabob said:

rottenborough said:

Owen Jones @OwenJones84
Senior Remain figure expects poll swingback "unless the world's turned on its head." It has. Look at politics in the US, Europe and the UK.

In the US, Hillary is 11pts clear. After swinging back...

That was with Bloomberg which consistently has the largest lead for Democrats

The previous Bloomberg poll had her 18% up.

RCP Polling average

May 24

Trump 43
Hillary 43

Jun 15

Hillary 44
Trump 39

Trump got a bounce when he won, and Hilary has got a bounce now she has won. There's not a lot in it.

Cyclefree said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wanderer said:

Pulpstar said:

Wanderer said:

50/50 according to John Curtice.

https://twitter.com/VictoriaLIVE/status/743377960942501888

6-4 still a big price for a 50 50 decision.

Yep. And imo Leave is now better than 50/50.

Nope. This thread demonstrates the wobbling from hitherto committed Leavers (and there will be others who feel the same who won't have the courage to declare their worries in the comments either)

I am firm because I think the Government and EU needs instructions and a clear mandate for a better deal, and we will never get one unless we do vote to Leave, as the EU has always shown, and I'm prepared to accept a compromise which will definitely be less integration than we currently have now.

I really wish we could get a view on how the EU would react. Or even some intelligent comment from somewhere on how they might react. Would they be shocked and seek to do a better deal? Or would they breathe a sigh of relief, accept that Britain's participation has not worked out well and wave us goodbye? And if the latter, what sort of a deal would we get?

They will react in what they consider to be the best way to limit damage to the EU. At the same time the governments of the individual EU members will react in the way they consider best for their countries. This is why action out of spite is highly unlikely. All the actions if the countries and institutions will be driven by pragmatism informed by belief. So any action which damages the UK EU relationship will be limited to what they believe is necessary to prevent contagion.

The bigger issue will be what the next steps of the UK government will be. That will have a far greater influence on future EU UK relations.

CarlottaVance said:

Once Article 50 was triggered, the terms of British exit would be negotiated not by British politicians or officials, but by the other 27 nations of the Union. Britain would find itself in the same position as the United Provinces of the Netherlands in 1713, when they were frozen out of negotiations to end the War of the Spanish Succession by the great powers of Austria, Britain, France, Portugal and Spain. The French diplomat Melchior de Polignac taunted the Dutch, saying that discussions would be “de vous, chez vous, mais sans vous” – “about you, in your own home, but without you”.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/eu-referendum-was-meant-be-tory-nightmare-it-has-become-one-labour

Not so. The EU would decide their negotiating position whilst ghe UK decided theirs. There would then be negotiations. But neither side is forced to accept any deal they do not agree with.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

Is Kate Hoey still a part of the Farage Leave campaign? If so, she should either immediately disown that poster or be expelled from the Labour party. That poster is among the most disgusting I have ever seen. Absolutely repulsive. What a revolting man Nigel Farage is, standing there grinning in front of something that demonises people fleeing from mass-murdering psychopaths.

I looked at it and winced. Then looked at it again and thought back over so many conversations with voters both during the GE campaign and more recently. And concluded the poster probably gets it right for its audience.

Farage and UKIP do what they want. On the issue about all this outrage from REMAINers, presumably this is reason number 201 from REMAIN as to why they going to win?

No, Remain will lose. And there is a proper and important discussion to be had about immigration. But the racism and xenophobia that Farage panders to has no part in it. Like Trump, Farage has thrown the dogwhistle away.

Time to step away from the referendum and enjoy the football. Oh, wait, I'm an England fan. It's painful to watch.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Cyclefree said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wanderer said:

Pulpstar said:

Wanderer said:

50/50 according to John Curtice.

https://twitter.com/VictoriaLIVE/status/743377960942501888

6-4 still a big price for a 50 50 decision.

Yep. And imo Leave is now better than 50/50.

Nope. This thread demonstrates the wobbling from hitherto committed Leavers (and there will be others who feel the same who won't have the courage to declare their worries in the comments either)

I am firm because I think the Government and EU needs instructions and a clear mandate for a better deal, and we will never get one unless we do vote to Leave, as the EU has always shown, and I'm prepared to accept a compromise which will definitely be less integration than we currently have now.

I really wish we could get a view on how the EU would react. Or even some intelligent comment from somewhere on how they might react. Would they be shocked and seek to do a better deal? Or would they breathe a sigh of relief, accept that Britain's participation has not worked out well and wave us goodbye? And if the latter, what sort of a deal would we get?

They will react in what they consider to be the best way to limit damage to the EU. At the same time the governments of the individual EU members will react in the way they consider best for their countries. This is why action out of spite is highly unlikely. All the actions if the countries and institutions will be driven by pragmatism informed by belief. So any action which damages the UK EU relationship will be limited to what they believe is necessary to prevent contagion.

The bigger issue will be what the next steps of the UK government will be. That will have a far greater influence on future EU UK relations.

The U.K. can also offer to stabilise the EU, continue a small net level of budget contributions (yes, yes, I know £350m etc. But this is a negotiation) military and security assets and continue to support pan-European goals from outside the political structures.

We will have continued strong bilateral interests and deals with France, Germany and the Netherlands that will see that a sensible deal is done for all parties.

Will we get everything we'd want in an ideal world? No. Will it be a disaster? Of course not.

It will be a slow and sensible disengagement from political union, only sensible thing to do with a small mandate and 40 years of economic integration behind us, and much better than what we'll get if we bottle it.

interesting question

@jamesrbuk: The UK has rules preventing you telling fibs to sell washing-up liquid, but not to win an election. Why? https://t.co/je2KfosBB8

Scott_P said:

Even journalists think Bernard Jenkyn is a plonker...

@bbclaurak: 3 days before the 75 #euref Bank governor made plain he wanted people to vote to stay and make a 'special contribution to Europe'

@bbclaurak: That was before Bank was made independent, but idea that all Governors have always stayed clear of expressing political views doesn't fly

He's not a plonker, he is however just pushing the Leave case, which is to be expected. I know it's supposedly his PAC role, but that just doesn't fly.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Time to step away from the referendum and enjoy the football. Oh, wait, I'm an England fan. It's painful to watch.

England to win by 2 or 3 goals is where my money is.

Wanderer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wanderer said:

Pulpstar said:

Wanderer said:

50/50 according to John Curtice.

https://twitter.com/VictoriaLIVE/status/743377960942501888

6-4 still a big price for a 50 50 decision.

Yep. And imo Leave is now better than 50/50.

Nope. This thread demonstrates the wobbling from hitherto committed Leavers (and there will be others who feel the same who won't have the courage to declare their worries in the comments either)

I am firm because I think the Government and EU needs instructions and a clear mandate for a better deal, and we will never get one unless we do vote to Leave, as the EU has always shown, and I'm prepared to accept a compromise which will definitely be less integration than we currently have now.

What do you make Leave's chances to be now? Even allowing for some cold feet it's in a good position, no?

It's in a better position than it appeared a couple of weeks ago (and time is running out). Personally I don't think Mr Farage's poster is productive - people will see refugees, they won't see economic migrants. That could have an adverse effect. Other possibilities are that England (but not Russia) are thrown out of EURO 2016 - that would go down like a bag of sick for the Remain campaign. There is one major debate left (Wembley), a couple of interviews and a last-chance on Chanel 4 but, given previous showings, Remain have an Achilles heel in immigration - it is the one question for which there is no answer.

Basically Remain have to produce a 'Boston Tea party' event - a rallying call. The onus is on them (and I don't think having 4,5 or a dozen presidents pleading 'please don't go' - after they have been threatening us for the last three months - is going to be it). The only other thing is whether there will be voter swingback in the polling booth - and 2% is more than half a million - or if the DKs swing heavily in favour of Remain.

I have thought all along that potential 'events' would favour Leave. Nothing has made me change my mind.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

@rowenamason: Boris Johnson getting heckled in Norwich by young guy shouting "bring back the empire" and "fucking racists" https://t.co/kf7Hef6oYC

With that level of debate, a UEA student at a guess...

Like Carswell, you mean....

Sean_F said:

GideonWise said:

Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.

Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.

Yep - Farage delivers the overtly racist and xenophobic vote. Do you think that Leave would be about to cross the line without it? And how do you put him away again once Leave has won?

Richard_Tyndall said:

Cyclefree said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wanderer said:

Pulpstar said:

Wanderer said:

50/50 according to John Curtice.

https://twitter.com/VictoriaLIVE/status/743377960942501888

6-4 still a big price for a 50 50 decision.

Yep. And imo Leave is now better than 50/50.

Nope. This thread demonstrates the wobbling from hitherto committed Leavers (and there will be others who feel the same who won't have the courage to declare their worries in the comments either)

I am firm because I think the Government and EU needs instructions and a clear mandate for a better deal, and we will never get one unless we do vote to Leave, as the EU has always shown, and I'm prepared to accept a compromise which will definitely be less integration than we currently have now.

I really wish we could get a view on how the EU would react. Or even some intelligent comment from somewhere on how they might react. Would they be shocked and seek to do a better deal? Or would they breathe a sigh of relief, accept that Britain's participation has not worked out well and wave us goodbye? And if the latter, what sort of a deal would we get?

They will react in what they consider to be the best way to limit damage to the EU. At the same time the governments of the individual EU members will react in the way they consider best for their countries. This is why action out of spite is highly unlikely. All the actions if the countries and institutions will be driven by pragmatism informed by belief. So any action which damages the UK EU relationship will be limited to what they believe is necessary to prevent contagion.

The bigger issue will be what the next steps of the UK government will be. That will have a far greater influence on future EU UK relations.

The EU will be in a state of shock. Usually when a referendum goes against them (France, Ireland) another referendum is called later where the correct decision is made.

This time the shock will be that there won't be a second referendum..

John_M said:

FF43 said:

There are losers in that some of the immigrants directly displace a UK born worker. However everyone gets some benefit in form of a stronger economy, better welfare provision etc.

The main point, though, is that immigration is there for a reason and because of that, will not substantially diminish post-Brexit. Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.

This returns to the challenge that's blighted the Remain campaign. It's an intellectual argument that I can broadly agree with, yet does not resonate with ordinary people.

In my area, the nearest large-scale employer used to be Xerox, with a plant in Mitcheldean. They used to employ 5,000 people, though that had dwindled to ~1,500 when the plant finally closed down (I believe there's still a tiny admin function there). Production was moved elsewhere, including Eastern Europe.

While I was being DV'ed, I did some voluntary work retraining men and women who'd spent their working lives assembling printers. It was awful. They were being ejected into a world with an almost worthless C&G level one in things like PC maintenance.

Now, their children are competing for entry level jobs with bright-eyed, well-qualified immigrants. They're failing. That's competition our generation never had to deal with on any scale.

It's hard to comfort oneself with macro-economics. Nor, to forestall Scott, do I see them taking much comfort from 'sovereignty'. Answer? I don't know. The solutions will take decades to work through.

It's heartbreaking. Gobalisation was missold by people like Bill Clinton and Tony Blair. It's not a happy dawn. It's a competitive environment where there are losers as well as winners. But you don't win the competition by refusing to take part. One thing is sure, Brexit will make it more difficult to compete, not easier.

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

GideonWise said:

Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.

Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.

Yep - Farage delivers the overtly racist and xenophobic vote. Do you think that Leave would be about to cross the line without it? And how do you put him away again once Leave has won?

Despite Michael Crick, Farage won't be in government if Leave win.

Sean_F said:

GideonWise said:

Sean_F said:

GideonWise said:

Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.

Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.

Yes but the key is for one segment not to contaminate the others. Farage is putting the overall campaign at risk with that tasteless poster as it can easily be whipped up into a media storm. Already people are demanding that Gove/Boris condemn. It's pathetic and unnecessary. Thick.

The sensible thing is for the Good Cops of Vote Leave and Labour Leave, to distance themselves from the Bad Cop, Farage. But, that doesn't mean that the Bad Cop isn't bringing in votes.

So it's sensible to coordinate with such tactics? What does that say about the Leave campaign?

Sean_F said:

GideonWise said:

Sean_F said:

GideonWise said:

Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.

Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.

Yes but the key is for one segment not to contaminate the others. Farage is putting the overall campaign at risk with that tasteless poster as it can easily be whipped up into a media storm. Already people are demanding that Gove/Boris condemn. It's pathetic and unnecessary. Thick.

The sensible thing is for the Good Cops of Vote Leave and Labour Leave, to distance themselves from the Bad Cop, Farage. But, that doesn't mean that the Bad Cop isn't bringing in votes.

They can disown the poster, for sure. But distancing will be tricky given the lies Gove, Boris and the rest of the official Leave campaign have told about Turkish membership of the EU.

Sean_F said:

GideonWise said:

Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.

Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.

Put it this way: a vote to Leave is a democratic mandate that can't be ignored. There will have to be a joint UK-EU response.

A vote to Remain and we get nothing and, given how far things have gone, we may just get contempt.

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

Is Kate Hoey still a part of the Farage Leave campaign? If so, she should either immediately disown that poster or be expelled from the Labour party. That poster is among the most disgusting I have ever seen. Absolutely repulsive. What a revolting man Nigel Farage is, standing there grinning in front of something that demonises people fleeing from mass-murdering psychopaths.

I looked at it and winced. Then looked at it again and thought back over so many conversations with voters both during the GE campaign and more recently. And concluded the poster probably gets it right for its audience.

Farage and UKIP do what they want. On the issue about all this outrage from REMAINers, presumably this is reason number 201 from REMAIN as to why they going to win?

No, Remain will lose. And there is a proper and important discussion to be had about immigration. But the racism and xenophobia that Farage panders to has no part in it. Like Trump, Farage has thrown the dogwhistle away.

I'm in a quandary like SeanT in some ways.

I've been a Brexiteer because I worry about democracy and sovereignty (or lack of) immigration has never been a concern for me and finding myself on the same side of the debate as Farage and UKIP is very uncomfortable... In normal circumstances I rate these people as complete nut cases and would be ashamed to be associated with them as I'm sure has been noted over the years

This is the great pity of Cameron's lost renegotiation opportunity. Because of his lamentable failure to get a genuine deal that reforms our relationship with with the EU I've been forced to the same side as Farage... A place I'm very uncomfortable to be it must be said.

VoteLeave - Mark Carney video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOWx_OhtCiA

GIN1138 said:

This is the great pity of Cameron's lost renegotiation opportunity. Because of his lamentable failure to get a genuine deal that reforms our relationship with with the EU I've been forced to the same side as Farage... A place I'm very uncomfortable to be it must be said.

Where is the logic in this? If you saw Cameron's renegotiation as an opportunity, why throw away the chance of ever having another opportunity to do it better by voting Leave? Leave is forever; Remain is for as long as the elected government supports it.

It's madness to vote Leave because you don't like the renegotiation, as Dr Wollaston realised.

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

GideonWise said:

Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.

Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.

Yep - Farage delivers the overtly racist and xenophobic vote. Do you think that Leave would be about to cross the line without it? And how do you put him away again once Leave has won?

Farage and Trump and any sign of triumphalism from those two, or others like them, will kill Leave stone dead.

Leave needs to exude maximum professionalism, soberity and responsibility from now until polling day.

Electoral Commission ‏@ElectoralCommUK 6m6 minutes ago City of London, London

27% of voters across the UK were unable to name the exact date of the #EURef when asked in a recent survey – get 23/06 in your diary now!

@GIN1138 I have made it clear since I first came off the fence for Remain that I did so not out of any love for Remain but because it was clear that Leave was going to be led in the wrong direction by the wrong people. In other words, Leave was going to result in an inferior outcome to Remain.

The thought of Lord Farage sitting in the Cabinet after standing in front of that poster makes me shudder.

Richard_Tyndall said:

CarlottaVance said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

CarlottaVance said:

Once Article 50 was triggered, the terms of British exit would be negotiated not by British politicians or officials, but by the other 27 nations of the Union. Britain would find itself in the same position as the United Provinces of the Netherlands in 1713, when they were frozen out of negotiations to end the War of the Spanish Succession by the great powers of Austria, Britain, France, Portugal and Spain. The French diplomat Melchior de Polignac taunted the Dutch, saying that discussions would be “de vous, chez vous, mais sans vous” – “about you, in your own home, but without you”.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/eu-referendum-was-meant-be-tory-nightmare-it-has-become-one-labour

Not so. The EU would decide their negotiating position whilst ghe UK decided theirs. There would then be negotiations. But neither side is forced to accept any deal they do not agree with.

So at the end of two years the UK is out of the EU without a deal.....

The we leave anyway and negotiate a trade deal.

Besides I still believe the most likely result is EFTA membership.

There will be a deal - either somewhat unfavourable or very unfavourable to us - but we will accept it. We won't get a better deal after leaving and the longer we delay the worse it will be. That's because we are negotiating to retain as many as possible of our current benefits, where those benefits will devolve to the other side by default. And while the EU will be disrupted by Brexit uncertainty it will hit us much more. We need that deal, we need it soon, but the timetable and the process are controlled by the EU. Recipe for not negotiating very hard.

GIN1138 said:

GideonWise said:

Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.

Is he? Or is he actually very cleverly trying to sabotage LEAVE to keep the gravy train rolling?

If he makes us lose the referendum I'm not sure he'd be on the gravy train much longer...

Scott_P said:

interesting question

@jamesrbuk: The UK has rules preventing you telling fibs to sell washing-up liquid, but not to win an election. Why? https://t.co/je2KfosBB8

It suits both main parties....usually.

http://news.sky.com/story/1711864/strong-growth-as-uk-house-prices-rise-8-2-percent

If SeanT is worried about his house prices he really shouldn't, especially as he lives in London, migrants will always come here. The dynamc London economy will continue to thrive. Chill.

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

GideonWise said:

Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.

Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.

Yep - Farage delivers the overtly racist and xenophobic vote. Do you think that Leave would be about to cross the line without it? And how do you put him away again once Leave has won?

Same way as he has been put away all campaign. He can bang on about whatever he wants but so long as the leaders like Boris and Gove ignore him then he's just howling in the wind. Vote Leave have made it abundantly clear that they want absolutely nothing to do with Farage and it will be exactly the same afterwards.

marke09 said:

Electoral Commission ‏@ElectoralCommUK 6m6 minutes ago City of London, London

27% of voters across the UK were unable to name the exact date of the #EURef when asked in a recent survey – get 23/06 in your diary now!

Oh boy.

Danny565 said:

By the way, just to throw a bit of pessimism in -- my source high-ish in the regional Labour party thinks some of the talk of huge Leave landslides across the Labour heartlands is overblown.

She says that, in her words, a lot of Labour canvassers are "ultra-pessimistic drama queens" and are blowing the doorstep reaction out of proportion (like in the Oldham byelection, where Labour MPs would knock on a few doors, get some negative reactions, then go screaming back to London about how those few people showed the whole constituency hated Labour). She also said there's a suspicion that a lot of the people identifying as Leave voters in safe Labour seats are not even on the electoral register.

Make of that what you will.

Or, of course, it could have been misinformation to galvanise the Remain vote.

tlg86 said:

Scott_P said:

interesting question

@jamesrbuk: The UK has rules preventing you telling fibs to sell washing-up liquid, but not to win an election. Why? https://t.co/je2KfosBB8

It suits both main parties....usually.

Because its an irregular verb.

I'm saying it the way I see it, you're spinning, he's fibbing.

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

GideonWise said:

Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.

Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.

Yep - Farage delivers the overtly racist and xenophobic vote. Do you think that Leave would be about to cross the line without it? And how do you put him away again once Leave has won?

Despite Michael Crick, Farage won't be in government if Leave win.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boris-johnson-offers-nigel-farage-8199899

If you believe that you'll believe anything.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Anyone know what happens to EHIC cards post Brexit? I asked a while ago and might have missed an anwer.

It would almost certainly continue. We have exactly the same arrangement on a bilateral basis with every other country in Europe outside the EU -although the former Russian stares are currently suspended because of sanctions.

I would expect that the arrangements would continue unchanged.

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

GideonWise said:

Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.

Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.

Yep - Farage delivers the overtly racist and xenophobic vote. Do you think that Leave would be about to cross the line without it? And how do you put him away again once Leave has won?

Same way as he has been put away all campaign. He can bang on about whatever he wants but so long as the leaders like Boris and Gove ignore him then he's just howling in the wind. Vote Leave have made it abundantly clear that they want absolutely nothing to do with Farage and it will be exactly the same afterwards.

The 'Farage' party had 12.7% of the vote at the last election. He will be a factor if he decides to be.

The 'Farage' party had 1 seat at the last election. He will not be a factor whatsoever.

Thankfully once we've left the EU the notional of proportional representation in England will be abolished with the MEPs and Farage will be unemployed not an MP.