Owen Jones @OwenJones84 Senior Remain figure expects poll swingback "unless the world's turned on its head." It has. Look at politics in the US, Europe and the UK.
In the US, Hillary is 11pts clear. After swinging back...
That was with Bloomberg which consistently has the largest lead for Democrats
Since we're in anecdote mode. I've just had two small business men round = 1handyman 1 heating engineer.
The handyman in his 50s wants someone like Thatcher back in charge, seemed quite well across the issues - and wants to vote Leave - he's still not quite sure and wondering about his kids. His daughter in her 20s is voting Leave.
The heating guy is 40s has totally gone off Cameron and hates all the EU paperwork/pretty informed too. He's certain Leave and doing it for his kids who are just coming up to 18.
Both of them talked about having control back, having a strong leader who'd take the country forward. Both concerned about immigration/mentioned knowing totally overqualified EUers doing low skilled work and stopping our youngsters getting jobs.
Most interesting half an hour. I didn't say which way I was voting.
Blimey, we have had various local builders, carpenters, plumbers, electricians etc doing our basement up for the last few weeks. Not one has ever mentioned the referendum. I live in a deep, dark black hole.
Sounds like tradesmen aren't doing a good job then .
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 58s59 seconds ago People tweeting, "why are you still confident". 2 facts. 1) Leave lead around 2%. 2) Average swing back to status quo is usually 2%-3%.
Leave lead is around 3%-4%. That's taking an average of the last 10 polls, 5 of which were phone and 5 online. True, if that were an actual figure for votes then a swing of 1.5%-2% would negate it.
Owen Jones @OwenJones84 Senior Remain figure expects poll swingback "unless the world's turned on its head." It has. Look at politics in the US, Europe and the UK.
In the US, Hillary is 11pts clear. After swinging back...
That was with Bloomberg which consistently has the largest lead for Democrats
Is Kate Hoey still a part of the Farage Leave campaign? If so, she should either immediately disown that poster or be expelled from the Labour party. That poster is among the most disgusting I have ever seen. Absolutely repulsive. What a revolting man Nigel Farage is, standing there grinning in front of something that demonises people fleeing from mass-murdering psychopaths.
I looked at it and winced. Then looked at it again and thought back over so many conversations with voters both during the GE campaign and more recently. And concluded the poster probably gets it right for its audience.
Farage and UKIP do what they want. On the issue about all this outrage from REMAINers, presumably this is reason number 201 from REMAIN as to why they going to win?
A utilitarian view on ethics for the EU debate is this.
Remainers are for total utilitarianism whereas Leavers are for average utilitarianism. The two have been used to think about optimum population sizes, in economics.
The difference? A bit like the difference between GDP and GDP per capita.
If we increase our population it increases our GDP overall but it has the potential to drive down GDP per capita. Particularly if those coming in are low skilled. We could end up with the 'repugnant conclusion' - whereby we increase our GDP by a LOT but we have lots and lots of people with a tiny bit of income/utility.
People in the real world understand this philosophical abstract in real-life. They recognise quite easily that with finite resources, more people simply leads to pressure on housing, schooling and the NHS which drives everyone's quality of life down. Therefore they are average utilitarians. This can happen at the same time as the economy growing - sound familiar?
The government, big business and those who can cream it off at the top are total utilitarians.
For what it is worth, Bentham would be for total, JS Mill for average IMO.
Too simple. It's quite possible that those coming in lower the overall GDP per capita, but raise the GDP per capita of the natives, thus leaving everyone better off.
Owen Jones @OwenJones84 Senior Remain figure expects poll swingback "unless the world's turned on its head." It has. Look at politics in the US, Europe and the UK.
In the US, Hillary is 11pts clear. After swinging back...
That was with Bloomberg which consistently has the largest lead for Democrats
The previous Bloomberg poll had her 18% up.
Indeed, CBS out today has her 6% up i.e. less than Obama beat McCain
@BethRigby: BREAK: @JeremyClarkson to join Cameron on campaign trail today - former #TopGear man, reaching the voters that others #remainers can't reach
Could actually be a very good move. Clarkson is seen as a little Englander. He's not of course – he's a patriotic Englishman – but also a francophile and very pro-European.
Jeremy Clarkson is a ghastly man. I am shocked he is backing Remain. It is desperate if our side is embracing him.
It's a shitload better than embracing Farage and his disgraceful posters. They would make me both ashamed and embarrassed if I was anything to do with Leave. And I am many Leavers are both.
Can you not take a small step back, and realise how farcically feeble minded it is to make a decision, or indeed hold an opinion, on any issue of importance, due to the fact that someone you disapprove of holds the opposite opinion. I don't give a flying **** what anyone I dislike's opinion on Brexit is. If they want to join me, fine - good for them being right for once. Conversely I don't care if someone who I like off the tellybox tells me they're voting the opposite way to me.
It's a damning endightment of Remain that all they can hurl at the public, apart from apocalyptic prophecies of doom, is this patronising identity politics. It's treating the public as fools. And on balance, it will probably work with the much of the public, but please don't come here and try it out on people who are politically savvy.
'endightment' - I think your spellchecker might need a tweak.
Is Kate Hoey still a part of the Farage Leave campaign? If so, she should either immediately disown that poster or be expelled from the Labour party. That poster is among the most disgusting I have ever seen. Absolutely repulsive. What a revolting man Nigel Farage is, standing there grinning in front of something that demonises people fleeing from mass-murdering psychopaths.
She was on the boat with Nige yesterday, so I'd guess yes, very much still part of the Farage campaign.
She shames Labour as much as Ken Livingstone does.
Owen Jones @OwenJones84 Senior Remain figure expects poll swingback "unless the world's turned on its head." It has. Look at politics in the US, Europe and the UK.
In the US, Hillary is 11pts clear. After swinging back...
That was with Bloomberg which consistently has the largest lead for Democrats
Whilst I am not confident for Leave winning, OGH is really clutching at anything, isn't he?
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Opinium & ComRes, the only pollsters showing REMAIN leads, were the most accurate at GE2015
On the other hand, ComRes and Opinium were hopelessly wrong in the recent local elections. At the beginning of May, an Opinium poll gave the Tories an 8% lead -- then a few days later, Labour beat the Tories by 1% in the elections.
The local elections suggest YouGov is currently the most accurate pollster, they were the only ones to correctly detect a small Labour lead (although they did overestimate UKIP by quite a bit).
Once Article 50 was triggered, the terms of British exit would be negotiated not by British politicians or officials, but by the other 27 nations of the Union. Britain would find itself in the same position as the United Provinces of the Netherlands in 1713, when they were frozen out of negotiations to end the War of the Spanish Succession by the great powers of Austria, Britain, France, Portugal and Spain. The French diplomat Melchior de Polignac taunted the Dutch, saying that discussions would be “de vous, chez vous, mais sans vous” – “about you, in your own home, but without you”.
Owen Jones @OwenJones84 Senior Remain figure expects poll swingback "unless the world's turned on its head." It has. Look at politics in the US, Europe and the UK.
In the US, Hillary is 11pts clear. After swinging back...
That was with Bloomberg which consistently has the largest lead for Democrats
The previous Bloomberg poll had her 18% up.
RCP Polling average
May 24
Trump 43 Hillary 43
Jun 15
Hillary 44 Trump 39
Trump got a bounce when he won, and Hilary has got a bounce now she has won. There's not a lot in it.
Whilst I am not confident for Leave winning, OGH is really clutching at anything, isn't he?
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Opinium & ComRes, the only pollsters showing REMAIN leads, were the most accurate at GE2015
On the other hand, ComRes and Opinium were hopelessly wrong in the recent local elections. At the beginning of May, an Opinium poll gave the Tories an 8% lead -- then a few days later, Labour beat the Tories by 1% in the elections.
The local elections suggest YouGov is currently the most accurate pollster, they were the only ones to currently detect a small Labour lead.
The local elections had half the turnout of the general election and this referendum
Nope. This thread demonstrates the wobbling from hitherto committed Leavers (and there will be others who feel the same who won't have the courage to declare their worries in the comments either)
I am firm because I think the Government and EU needs instructions and a clear mandate for a better deal, and we will never get one unless we do vote to Leave, as the EU has always shown, and I'm prepared to accept a compromise which will definitely be less integration than we currently have now.
I really wish we could get a view on how the EU would react. Or even some intelligent comment from somewhere on how they might react. Would they be shocked and seek to do a better deal? Or would they breathe a sigh of relief, accept that Britain's participation has not worked out well and wave us goodbye? And if the latter, what sort of a deal would we get?
They will react in what they consider to be the best way to limit damage to the EU. At the same time the governments of the individual EU members will react in the way they consider best for their countries. This is why action out of spite is highly unlikely. All the actions if the countries and institutions will be driven by pragmatism informed by belief. So any action which damages the UK EU relationship will be limited to what they believe is necessary to prevent contagion.
The bigger issue will be what the next steps of the UK government will be. That will have a far greater influence on future EU UK relations.
Whilst I am not confident for Leave winning, OGH is really clutching at anything, isn't he?
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Opinium & ComRes, the only pollsters showing REMAIN leads, were the most accurate at GE2015
Opinium's 10/10 indicator was far more accurate than their headline last May - and that has Leave 4 points ahead.
Dan Hodges' claim that there is a swing to status quo, could equally be interpreted as there is a swing away from the prevailing left wing opinion/option to the right wing one.
Once Article 50 was triggered, the terms of British exit would be negotiated not by British politicians or officials, but by the other 27 nations of the Union. Britain would find itself in the same position as the United Provinces of the Netherlands in 1713, when they were frozen out of negotiations to end the War of the Spanish Succession by the great powers of Austria, Britain, France, Portugal and Spain. The French diplomat Melchior de Polignac taunted the Dutch, saying that discussions would be “de vous, chez vous, mais sans vous” – “about you, in your own home, but without you”.
Not so. The EU would decide their negotiating position whilst ghe UK decided theirs. There would then be negotiations. But neither side is forced to accept any deal they do not agree with.
Is Kate Hoey still a part of the Farage Leave campaign? If so, she should either immediately disown that poster or be expelled from the Labour party. That poster is among the most disgusting I have ever seen. Absolutely repulsive. What a revolting man Nigel Farage is, standing there grinning in front of something that demonises people fleeing from mass-murdering psychopaths.
I looked at it and winced. Then looked at it again and thought back over so many conversations with voters both during the GE campaign and more recently. And concluded the poster probably gets it right for its audience.
Farage and UKIP do what they want. On the issue about all this outrage from REMAINers, presumably this is reason number 201 from REMAIN as to why they going to win?
No, Remain will lose. And there is a proper and important discussion to be had about immigration. But the racism and xenophobia that Farage panders to has no part in it. Like Trump, Farage has thrown the dogwhistle away.
Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.
Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.
Yes but the key is for one segment not to contaminate the others. Farage is putting the overall campaign at risk with that tasteless poster as it can easily be whipped up into a media storm. Already people are demanding that Gove/Boris condemn. It's pathetic and unnecessary. Thick.
Nope. This thread demonstrates the wobbling from hitherto committed Leavers (and there will be others who feel the same who won't have the courage to declare their worries in the comments either)
I am firm because I think the Government and EU needs instructions and a clear mandate for a better deal, and we will never get one unless we do vote to Leave, as the EU has always shown, and I'm prepared to accept a compromise which will definitely be less integration than we currently have now.
I really wish we could get a view on how the EU would react. Or even some intelligent comment from somewhere on how they might react. Would they be shocked and seek to do a better deal? Or would they breathe a sigh of relief, accept that Britain's participation has not worked out well and wave us goodbye? And if the latter, what sort of a deal would we get?
They will react in what they consider to be the best way to limit damage to the EU. At the same time the governments of the individual EU members will react in the way they consider best for their countries. This is why action out of spite is highly unlikely. All the actions if the countries and institutions will be driven by pragmatism informed by belief. So any action which damages the UK EU relationship will be limited to what they believe is necessary to prevent contagion.
The bigger issue will be what the next steps of the UK government will be. That will have a far greater influence on future EU UK relations.
The U.K. can also offer to stabilise the EU, continue a small net level of budget contributions (yes, yes, I know £350m etc. But this is a negotiation) military and security assets and continue to support pan-European goals from outside the political structures.
We will have continued strong bilateral interests and deals with France, Germany and the Netherlands that will see that a sensible deal is done for all parties.
Will we get everything we'd want in an ideal world? No. Will it be a disaster? Of course not.
It will be a slow and sensible disengagement from political union, only sensible thing to do with a small mandate and 40 years of economic integration behind us, and much better than what we'll get if we bottle it.
Even journalists think Bernard Jenkyn is a plonker...
@bbclaurak: 3 days before the 75 #euref Bank governor made plain he wanted people to vote to stay and make a 'special contribution to Europe'
@bbclaurak: That was before Bank was made independent, but idea that all Governors have always stayed clear of expressing political views doesn't fly
He's not a plonker, he is however just pushing the Leave case, which is to be expected. I know it's supposedly his PAC role, but that just doesn't fly.
I am still not confident of a Leave victory yet and Farage to me is the ons person who could really wreck it for us. He needs to be locked in a well stocked cellar for the next week or so.
By the way, just to throw a bit of pessimism in -- my source high-ish in the regional Labour party thinks some of the talk of huge Leave landslides across the Labour heartlands is overblown.
She says that, in her words, a lot of Labour canvassers are "ultra-pessimistic drama queens" and are blowing the doorstep reaction out of proportion (like in the Oldham byelection, where Labour MPs would knock on a few doors, get some negative reactions, then go screaming back to London about how those few people showed the whole constituency hated Labour). She also said there's a suspicion that a lot of the people identifying as Leave voters in safe Labour seats are not even on the electoral register.
Nope. This thread demonstrates the wobbling from hitherto committed Leavers (and there will be others who feel the same who won't have the courage to declare their worries in the comments either)
I am firm because I think the Government and EU needs instructions and a clear mandate for a better deal, and we will never get one unless we do vote to Leave, as the EU has always shown, and I'm prepared to accept a compromise which will definitely be less integration than we currently have now.
What do you make Leave's chances to be now? Even allowing for some cold feet it's in a good position, no?
It's in a better position than it appeared a couple of weeks ago (and time is running out). Personally I don't think Mr Farage's poster is productive - people will see refugees, they won't see economic migrants. That could have an adverse effect. Other possibilities are that England (but not Russia) are thrown out of EURO 2016 - that would go down like a bag of sick for the Remain campaign. There is one major debate left (Wembley), a couple of interviews and a last-chance on Chanel 4 but, given previous showings, Remain have an Achilles heel in immigration - it is the one question for which there is no answer.
Basically Remain have to produce a 'Boston Tea party' event - a rallying call. The onus is on them (and I don't think having 4,5 or a dozen presidents pleading 'please don't go' - after they have been threatening us for the last three months - is going to be it). The only other thing is whether there will be voter swingback in the polling booth - and 2% is more than half a million - or if the DKs swing heavily in favour of Remain.
I have thought all along that potential 'events' would favour Leave. Nothing has made me change my mind.
Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.
Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.
Yep - Farage delivers the overtly racist and xenophobic vote. Do you think that Leave would be about to cross the line without it? And how do you put him away again once Leave has won?
Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.
Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.
Yes but the key is for one segment not to contaminate the others. Farage is putting the overall campaign at risk with that tasteless poster as it can easily be whipped up into a media storm. Already people are demanding that Gove/Boris condemn. It's pathetic and unnecessary. Thick.
The sensible thing is for the Good Cops of Vote Leave and Labour Leave, to distance themselves from the Bad Cop, Farage. But, that doesn't mean that the Bad Cop isn't bringing in votes.
Nope. This thread demonstrates the wobbling from hitherto committed Leavers (and there will be others who feel the same who won't have the courage to declare their worries in the comments either)
I am firm because I think the Government and EU needs instructions and a clear mandate for a better deal, and we will never get one unless we do vote to Leave, as the EU has always shown, and I'm prepared to accept a compromise which will definitely be less integration than we currently have now.
I really wish we could get a view on how the EU would react. Or even some intelligent comment from somewhere on how they might react. Would they be shocked and seek to do a better deal? Or would they breathe a sigh of relief, accept that Britain's participation has not worked out well and wave us goodbye? And if the latter, what sort of a deal would we get?
They will react in what they consider to be the best way to limit damage to the EU. At the same time the governments of the individual EU members will react in the way they consider best for their countries. This is why action out of spite is highly unlikely. All the actions if the countries and institutions will be driven by pragmatism informed by belief. So any action which damages the UK EU relationship will be limited to what they believe is necessary to prevent contagion.
The bigger issue will be what the next steps of the UK government will be. That will have a far greater influence on future EU UK relations.
The EU will be in a state of shock. Usually when a referendum goes against them (France, Ireland) another referendum is called later where the correct decision is made.
This time the shock will be that there won't be a second referendum..
Once Article 50 was triggered, the terms of British exit would be negotiated not by British politicians or officials, but by the other 27 nations of the Union. Britain would find itself in the same position as the United Provinces of the Netherlands in 1713, when they were frozen out of negotiations to end the War of the Spanish Succession by the great powers of Austria, Britain, France, Portugal and Spain. The French diplomat Melchior de Polignac taunted the Dutch, saying that discussions would be “de vous, chez vous, mais sans vous” – “about you, in your own home, but without you”.
Not so. The EU would decide their negotiating position whilst ghe UK decided theirs. There would then be negotiations. But neither side is forced to accept any deal they do not agree with.
So at the end of two years the UK is out of the EU without a deal.....
There are losers in that some of the immigrants directly displace a UK born worker. However everyone gets some benefit in form of a stronger economy, better welfare provision etc.
The main point, though, is that immigration is there for a reason and because of that, will not substantially diminish post-Brexit. Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.
This returns to the challenge that's blighted the Remain campaign. It's an intellectual argument that I can broadly agree with, yet does not resonate with ordinary people.
In my area, the nearest large-scale employer used to be Xerox, with a plant in Mitcheldean. They used to employ 5,000 people, though that had dwindled to ~1,500 when the plant finally closed down (I believe there's still a tiny admin function there). Production was moved elsewhere, including Eastern Europe.
While I was being DV'ed, I did some voluntary work retraining men and women who'd spent their working lives assembling printers. It was awful. They were being ejected into a world with an almost worthless C&G level one in things like PC maintenance.
Now, their children are competing for entry level jobs with bright-eyed, well-qualified immigrants. They're failing. That's competition our generation never had to deal with on any scale.
It's hard to comfort oneself with macro-economics. Nor, to forestall Scott, do I see them taking much comfort from 'sovereignty'. Answer? I don't know. The solutions will take decades to work through.
It's heartbreaking. Gobalisation was missold by people like Bill Clinton and Tony Blair. It's not a happy dawn. It's a competitive environment where there are losers as well as winners. But you don't win the competition by refusing to take part. One thing is sure, Brexit will make it more difficult to compete, not easier.
Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.
Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.
Yep - Farage delivers the overtly racist and xenophobic vote. Do you think that Leave would be about to cross the line without it? And how do you put him away again once Leave has won?
Despite Michael Crick, Farage won't be in government if Leave win.
Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.
Is he? Or is he actually very cleverly trying to sabotage LEAVE to keep the gravy train rolling?
Potentially but I don't think he is that Machiavellian. Occam's razor would have it that he is simply thick.
Despite all the evidence that the Vote Leave campaign is working well - being positive, raising immigration but in the correct tone - Farage blunders in with an extremely inflammatory poster and stands in front of it grinning in an obscene manner. Just as the momentum is with Leave.
My agent, who was very much on the fence, and possibly swinging to LEAVE, has plumped for REMAiN on the grounds that her husband will go bust with LEAVE and she'll "have to live in a semi in Watford"
I reckon the Worried Professionals will still swing this for REMAIN.
See, is this the third or fourth time you've changed your mind about the likely result? I and I suspect a good few other PBers always felt you'd end up in the Remain camp.
Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.
Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.
Yes but the key is for one segment not to contaminate the others. Farage is putting the overall campaign at risk with that tasteless poster as it can easily be whipped up into a media storm. Already people are demanding that Gove/Boris condemn. It's pathetic and unnecessary. Thick.
The sensible thing is for the Good Cops of Vote Leave and Labour Leave, to distance themselves from the Bad Cop, Farage. But, that doesn't mean that the Bad Cop isn't bringing in votes.
So it's sensible to coordinate with such tactics? What does that say about the Leave campaign?
I assume that the "astonishing facts" in the headline related to cures for cancer and the young Diana Spencer. Asians probably were going to cause cancer and Diana cure it, or something.
Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.
Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.
Yes but the key is for one segment not to contaminate the others. Farage is putting the overall campaign at risk with that tasteless poster as it can easily be whipped up into a media storm. Already people are demanding that Gove/Boris condemn. It's pathetic and unnecessary. Thick.
The sensible thing is for the Good Cops of Vote Leave and Labour Leave, to distance themselves from the Bad Cop, Farage. But, that doesn't mean that the Bad Cop isn't bringing in votes.
They can disown the poster, for sure. But distancing will be tricky given the lies Gove, Boris and the rest of the official Leave campaign have told about Turkish membership of the EU.
That Farage poster just plays to the scorched earth of the campaign - it appals people like me (and many others here to their credit) but probably plays well to its target group. Shame on 'the other' being used so nakedly.
I did some delivery (a constructive leaflet from our MEP talking about her work in Europe, much more persuasive than the nonsense in the media and I wouldn't touch anything from the official campaigns) last night on an estate that I'd been told should be good - 3 Vote Leave posters 0 Remain posters. We'll see.
Once Article 50 was triggered, the terms of British exit would be negotiated not by British politicians or officials, but by the other 27 nations of the Union. Britain would find itself in the same position as the United Provinces of the Netherlands in 1713, when they were frozen out of negotiations to end the War of the Spanish Succession by the great powers of Austria, Britain, France, Portugal and Spain. The French diplomat Melchior de Polignac taunted the Dutch, saying that discussions would be “de vous, chez vous, mais sans vous” – “about you, in your own home, but without you”.
Not so. The EU would decide their negotiating position whilst ghe UK decided theirs. There would then be negotiations. But neither side is forced to accept any deal they do not agree with.
So at the end of two years the UK is out of the EU without a deal.....
The we leave anyway and negotiate a trade deal.
Besides I still believe the most likely result is EFTA membership.
Is Kate Hoey still a part of the Farage Leave campaign? If so, she should either immediately disown that poster or be expelled from the Labour party. That poster is among the most disgusting I have ever seen. Absolutely repulsive. What a revolting man Nigel Farage is, standing there grinning in front of something that demonises people fleeing from mass-murdering psychopaths.
I looked at it and winced. Then looked at it again and thought back over so many conversations with voters both during the GE campaign and more recently. And concluded the poster probably gets it right for its audience.
Farage and UKIP do what they want. On the issue about all this outrage from REMAINers, presumably this is reason number 201 from REMAIN as to why they going to win?
No, Remain will lose. And there is a proper and important discussion to be had about immigration. But the racism and xenophobia that Farage panders to has no part in it. Like Trump, Farage has thrown the dogwhistle away.
I'm in a quandary like SeanT in some ways.
I've been a Brexiteer because I worry about democracy and sovereignty (or lack of) immigration has never been a concern for me and finding myself on the same side of the debate as Farage and UKIP is very uncomfortable... In normal circumstances I rate these people as complete nut cases and would be ashamed to be associated with them as I'm sure has been noted over the years
This is the great pity of Cameron's lost renegotiation opportunity. Because of his lamentable failure to get a genuine deal that reforms our relationship with with the EU I've been forced to the same side as Farage... A place I'm very uncomfortable to be it must be said.
Once Article 50 was triggered, the terms of British exit would be negotiated not by British politicians or officials, but by the other 27 nations of the Union. Britain would find itself in the same position as the United Provinces of the Netherlands in 1713, when they were frozen out of negotiations to end the War of the Spanish Succession by the great powers of Austria, Britain, France, Portugal and Spain. The French diplomat Melchior de Polignac taunted the Dutch, saying that discussions would be “de vous, chez vous, mais sans vous” – “about you, in your own home, but without you”.
Not so. The EU would decide their negotiating position whilst ghe UK decided theirs. There would then be negotiations. But neither side is forced to accept any deal they do not agree with.
So at the end of two years the UK is out of the EU without a deal.....
This is the great pity of Cameron's lost renegotiation opportunity. Because of his lamentable failure to get a genuine deal that reforms our relationship with with the EU I've been forced to the same side as Farage... A place I'm very uncomfortable to be it must be said.
Where is the logic in this? If you saw Cameron's renegotiation as an opportunity, why throw away the chance of ever having another opportunity to do it better by voting Leave? Leave is forever; Remain is for as long as the elected government supports it.
It's madness to vote Leave because you don't like the renegotiation, as Dr Wollaston realised.
Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.
Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.
Yep - Farage delivers the overtly racist and xenophobic vote. Do you think that Leave would be about to cross the line without it? And how do you put him away again once Leave has won?
Farage and Trump and any sign of triumphalism from those two, or others like them, will kill Leave stone dead.
Leave needs to exude maximum professionalism, soberity and responsibility from now until polling day.
Once Article 50 was triggered, the terms of British exit would be negotiated not by British politicians or officials, but by the other 27 nations of the Union. Britain would find itself in the same position as the United Provinces of the Netherlands in 1713, when they were frozen out of negotiations to end the War of the Spanish Succession by the great powers of Austria, Britain, France, Portugal and Spain. The French diplomat Melchior de Polignac taunted the Dutch, saying that discussions would be “de vous, chez vous, mais sans vous” – “about you, in your own home, but without you”.
Not so. The EU would decide their negotiating position whilst ghe UK decided theirs. There would then be negotiations. But neither side is forced to accept any deal they do not agree with.
So at the end of two years the UK is out of the EU without a deal.....
Besides I still believe the most likely result is EFTA membership.
Your optimism does you credit - but millions will have voted to 'end immigration' aka free movement of people - so I doubt the government would be able to sell it, or indeed attempt to.
@GIN1138 I have made it clear since I first came off the fence for Remain that I did so not out of any love for Remain but because it was clear that Leave was going to be led in the wrong direction by the wrong people. In other words, Leave was going to result in an inferior outcome to Remain.
The thought of Lord Farage sitting in the Cabinet after standing in front of that poster makes me shudder.
Once Article 50 was triggered, the terms of British exit would be negotiated not by British politicians or officials, but by the other 27 nations of the Union. Britain would find itself in the same position as the United Provinces of the Netherlands in 1713, when they were frozen out of negotiations to end the War of the Spanish Succession by the great powers of Austria, Britain, France, Portugal and Spain. The French diplomat Melchior de Polignac taunted the Dutch, saying that discussions would be “de vous, chez vous, mais sans vous” – “about you, in your own home, but without you”.
Not so. The EU would decide their negotiating position whilst ghe UK decided theirs. There would then be negotiations. But neither side is forced to accept any deal they do not agree with.
So at the end of two years the UK is out of the EU without a deal.....
The we leave anyway and negotiate a trade deal.
Besides I still believe the most likely result is EFTA membership.
There will be a deal - either somewhat unfavourable or very unfavourable to us - but we will accept it. We won't get a better deal after leaving and the longer we delay the worse it will be. That's because we are negotiating to retain as many as possible of our current benefits, where those benefits will devolve to the other side by default. And while the EU will be disrupted by Brexit uncertainty it will hit us much more. We need that deal, we need it soon, but the timetable and the process are controlled by the EU. Recipe for not negotiating very hard.
Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.
Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.
Yep - Farage delivers the overtly racist and xenophobic vote. Do you think that Leave would be about to cross the line without it? And how do you put him away again once Leave has won?
Despite Michael Crick, Farage won't be in government if Leave win.
Once Article 50 was triggered, the terms of British exit would be negotiated not by British politicians or officials, but by the other 27 nations of the Union. Britain would find itself in the same position as the United Provinces of the Netherlands in 1713, when they were frozen out of negotiations to end the War of the Spanish Succession by the great powers of Austria, Britain, France, Portugal and Spain. The French diplomat Melchior de Polignac taunted the Dutch, saying that discussions would be “de vous, chez vous, mais sans vous” – “about you, in your own home, but without you”.
Not so. The EU would decide their negotiating position whilst ghe UK decided theirs. There would then be negotiations. But neither side is forced to accept any deal they do not agree with.
So at the end of two years the UK is out of the EU without a deal.....
The we leave anyway and negotiate a trade deal.
Besides I still believe the most likely result is EFTA membership.
Indeed. Although there is a bit of a prisoners dilemma for the EU. As in my view a "beefed up" EFTA with us, Iceland, Norway would potentially be pretty attractive to Sweden and Denmark (and maybe Ireland?) - particularly if they moved together. Would the EU tolerate that, or would they want to prevent it, and harm both us and them in the process?
My agent, who was very much on the fence, and possibly swinging to LEAVE, has plumped for REMAiN on the grounds that her husband will go bust with LEAVE and she'll "have to live in a semi in Watford"
I reckon the Worried Professionals will still swing this for REMAIN.
See, is this the third or fourth time you've changed your mind about the likely result? I and I suspect a good few other PBers always felt you'd end up in the Remain camp.
I said months ago that if Leave looked likely in the final week then the markets would react and enough people would crap themselves and bottle it to swing it for Remain.
It is exactly what the Government want, of course.
It's not the fear of a Leave vote that's killing me at the moment, it's the hope. Cruel, cruel hope.
I can deal with defeat; I can be ecstatic at knowing a forthcoming victory. But I absolutely will be crushed if this looks there for the taking and totally slips through our hands.
The EU will be in a state of shock. Usually when a referendum goes against them (France, Ireland) another referendum is called later where the correct decision is made.
This time the shock will be that there won't be a second referendum..
It is an interesting argument. The Remainders seem to have bought into the idea that the EU is somehow evil and so will act in an evil way. It is not. It acts in the way it does because that is its raison d'etre. The institutions have been established to progress a course of ever closer union and they expect everyone who becomes a member to buy into that. Decision if the ECJ are not malicious or political in terms of acting outside their remit. They appear political in British eyes because that is what the court was set up to do.
So if we leave the EU will continue to act in the way that best preserve their goals. Indeed that job will probably be much easier with us out of the way.
If SeanT is worried about his house prices he really shouldn't, especially as he lives in London, migrants will always come here. The dynamc London economy will continue to thrive. Chill.
By the way, just to throw a bit of pessimism in -- my source high-ish in the regional Labour party thinks some of the talk of huge Leave landslides across the Labour heartlands is overblown.
She says that, in her words, a lot of Labour canvassers are "ultra-pessimistic drama queens" and are blowing the doorstep reaction out of proportion (like in the Oldham byelection, where Labour MPs would knock on a few doors, get some negative reactions, then go screaming back to London about how those few people showed the whole constituency hated Labour). She also said there's a suspicion that a lot of the people identifying as Leave voters in safe Labour seats are not even on the electoral register.
Make of that what you will.
The referendum is different to a GE or BE. In Oldham I suspect that people held their noses and stuck with their tribal political identity once they were in the polling booth. In the referendum, this is about country not party. I would expect WWC voters to hold their noses and stick with their tribal cultural identity, which may push them for Leave. In this case therefore, the canvassing may be more correct.
Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.
Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.
Yep - Farage delivers the overtly racist and xenophobic vote. Do you think that Leave would be about to cross the line without it? And how do you put him away again once Leave has won?
Same way as he has been put away all campaign. He can bang on about whatever he wants but so long as the leaders like Boris and Gove ignore him then he's just howling in the wind. Vote Leave have made it abundantly clear that they want absolutely nothing to do with Farage and it will be exactly the same afterwards.
My agent, who was very much on the fence, and possibly swinging to LEAVE, has plumped for REMAiN on the grounds that her husband will go bust with LEAVE and she'll "have to live in a semi in Watford"
I reckon the Worried Professionals will still swing this for REMAIN.
See, is this the third or fourth time you've changed your mind about the likely result? I and I suspect a good few other PBers always felt you'd end up in the Remain camp.
I said months ago that if Leave looked likely in the final week then the markets would react and enough people would crap themselves and bottle it to swing it for Remain.
It is exactly what the Government want, of course.
It's not the fear of a Leave vote that's killing me at the moment, it's the hope. Cruel, cruel hope.
I can deal with defeat; I can be ecstatic at knowing a forthcoming victory. But I absolutely will be crushed if this looks there for the taking and totally slips through our hands.
We simply MUST not let this opportunity pass.
Agree 100% with this. Which is why Farage scares the hell out of me.
By the way, just to throw a bit of pessimism in -- my source high-ish in the regional Labour party thinks some of the talk of huge Leave landslides across the Labour heartlands is overblown.
She says that, in her words, a lot of Labour canvassers are "ultra-pessimistic drama queens" and are blowing the doorstep reaction out of proportion (like in the Oldham byelection, where Labour MPs would knock on a few doors, get some negative reactions, then go screaming back to London about how those few people showed the whole constituency hated Labour). She also said there's a suspicion that a lot of the people identifying as Leave voters in safe Labour seats are not even on the electoral register.
Make of that what you will.
Or, of course, it could have been misinformation to galvanise the Remain vote.
My agent, who was very much on the fence, and possibly swinging to LEAVE, has plumped for REMAiN on the grounds that her husband will go bust with LEAVE and she'll "have to live in a semi in Watford"
I reckon the Worried Professionals will still swing this for REMAIN.
See, is this the third or fourth time you've changed your mind about the likely result? I and I suspect a good few other PBers always felt you'd end up in the Remain camp.
I am hoping for a complete Sean Thomas Public Meltdown before the vote.
Who can forget his crazed, tearful, druggy, suicidal pleadings to the Scots not to leave when Independence looked likely a few days before the Sindy ?
Still, Sean recovered soon enough, and the Scots were receiving the full blast of his contempt a few days later.
Is Kate Hoey still a part of the Farage Leave campaign? If so, she should either immediately disown that poster or be expelled from the Labour party. That poster is among the most disgusting I have ever seen. Absolutely repulsive. What a revolting man Nigel Farage is, standing there grinning in front of something that demonises people fleeing from mass-murdering psychopaths.
I looked at it and winced. Then looked at it again and thought back over so many conversations with voters both during the GE campaign and more recently. And concluded the poster probably gets it right for its audience.
Farage and UKIP do what they want. On the issue about all this outrage from REMAINers, presumably this is reason number 201 from REMAIN as to why they going to win?
No, Remain will lose. And there is a proper and important discussion to be had about immigration. But the racism and xenophobia that Farage panders to has no part in it. Like Trump, Farage has thrown the dogwhistle away.
I'm in a quandary like SeanT in some ways.
I've been a Brexiteer because I worry about democracy and sovereignty (or lack of) immigration has never been a concern for me and finding myself on the same side of the debate as Farage and UKIP is very uncomfortable... In normal circumstances I rate these people as complete nut cases and would be ashamed to be associated with them as I'm sure has been noted over the years
This is the great pity of Cameron's lost renegotiation opportunity. Because of his lamentable failure to get a genuine deal that reforms our relationship with with the EU I've been forced to the same side as Farage... A place I'm very uncomfortable to be it must be said.
Simply ignore Farage - he's not even a MP, if we vote Brexit - he'll be out of that MEP job too. Think of Gisela and Hoey and Leadsom. They're the mainstream.
Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.
Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.
Yep - Farage delivers the overtly racist and xenophobic vote. Do you think that Leave would be about to cross the line without it? And how do you put him away again once Leave has won?
Same way as he has been put away all campaign. He can bang on about whatever he wants but so long as the leaders like Boris and Gove ignore him then he's just howling in the wind. Vote Leave have made it abundantly clear that they want absolutely nothing to do with Farage and it will be exactly the same afterwards.
The 'Farage' party had 12.7% of the vote at the last election. He will be a factor if he decides to be.
My agent, who was very much on the fence, and possibly swinging to LEAVE, has plumped for REMAiN on the grounds that her husband will go bust with LEAVE and she'll "have to live in a semi in Watford"
I reckon the Worried Professionals will still swing this for REMAIN.
See, is this the third or fourth time you've changed your mind about the likely result? I and I suspect a good few other PBers always felt you'd end up in the Remain camp.
We simply MUST not let this opportunity pass.
So many people feel that strongly CR that I'm confident. For all the posts on here about it still being close, remember that Leavers are more likely to turn out to vote. We're a lot more passionate.
Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.
Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.
Yep - Farage delivers the overtly racist and xenophobic vote. Do you think that Leave would be about to cross the line without it? And how do you put him away again once Leave has won?
Despite Michael Crick, Farage won't be in government if Leave win.
If we don't like the way the EU develops we can elect a government with a manifesto pledge to take us out and don't even need to have another referendum. Then we're out.
Anyone know what happens to EHIC cards post Brexit? I asked a while ago and might have missed an anwer.
It would almost certainly continue. We have exactly the same arrangement on a bilateral basis with every other country in Europe outside the EU -although the former Russian stares are currently suspended because of sanctions.
I would expect that the arrangements would continue unchanged.
@GIN1138 I have made it clear since I first came off the fence for Remain that I did so not out of any love for Remain but because it was clear that Leave was going to be led in the wrong direction by the wrong people. In other words, Leave was going to result in an inferior outcome to Remain.
The thought of Lord Farage sitting in the Cabinet after standing in front of that poster makes me shudder.
Farage is coming nowhere bloody near a Leave Government.
Actually think Leadsom, Gove, May, Davidson, and others, will make a fantastic and sensible team, though.
Farage is an idiot there is no getting away from it.
Far from it. Vote Leave, Labour Leave, and Leave EU are all bringing different segments of the electorate onboard.
Yep - Farage delivers the overtly racist and xenophobic vote. Do you think that Leave would be about to cross the line without it? And how do you put him away again once Leave has won?
Same way as he has been put away all campaign. He can bang on about whatever he wants but so long as the leaders like Boris and Gove ignore him then he's just howling in the wind. Vote Leave have made it abundantly clear that they want absolutely nothing to do with Farage and it will be exactly the same afterwards.
The 'Farage' party had 12.7% of the vote at the last election. He will be a factor if he decides to be.
The 'Farage' party had 1 seat at the last election. He will not be a factor whatsoever.
Thankfully once we've left the EU the notional of proportional representation in England will be abolished with the MEPs and Farage will be unemployed not an MP.
Comments
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Opinium & ComRes, the only pollsters showing REMAIN leads, were the most accurate at GE2015
https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/743406737374519296
'endightment' - I think your spellchecker might need a tweak.
May 24
Trump 43
Hillary 43
Jun 15
Hillary 44
Trump 39
The local elections suggest YouGov is currently the most accurate pollster, they were the only ones to correctly detect a small Labour lead (although they did overestimate UKIP by quite a bit).
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/eu-referendum-was-meant-be-tory-nightmare-it-has-become-one-labour
The bigger issue will be what the next steps of the UK government will be. That will have a far greater influence on future EU UK relations.
Did they have a question matched to the euroref wording?
Dan Hodges' claim that there is a swing to status quo, could equally be interpreted as there is a swing away from the prevailing left wing opinion/option to the right wing one.
Polls usually overstate left wing opinion.
@bbclaurak: 3 days before the 75 #euref Bank governor made plain he wanted people to vote to stay and make a 'special contribution to Europe'
@bbclaurak: That was before Bank was made independent, but idea that all Governors have always stayed clear of expressing political views doesn't fly
We will have continued strong bilateral interests and deals with France, Germany and the Netherlands that will see that a sensible deal is done for all parties.
Will we get everything we'd want in an ideal world? No. Will it be a disaster? Of course not.
It will be a slow and sensible disengagement from political union, only sensible thing to do with a small mandate and 40 years of economic integration behind us, and much better than what we'll get if we bottle it.
@jamesrbuk: The UK has rules preventing you telling fibs to sell washing-up liquid, but not to win an election. Why? https://t.co/je2KfosBB8
She says that, in her words, a lot of Labour canvassers are "ultra-pessimistic drama queens" and are blowing the doorstep reaction out of proportion (like in the Oldham byelection, where Labour MPs would knock on a few doors, get some negative reactions, then go screaming back to London about how those few people showed the whole constituency hated Labour). She also said there's a suspicion that a lot of the people identifying as Leave voters in safe Labour seats are not even on the electoral register.
Make of that what you will.
Basically Remain have to produce a 'Boston Tea party' event - a rallying call. The onus is on them (and I don't think having 4,5 or a dozen presidents pleading 'please don't go' - after they have been threatening us for the last three months - is going to be it). The only other thing is whether there will be voter swingback in the polling booth - and 2% is more than half a million - or if the DKs swing heavily in favour of Remain.
I have thought all along that potential 'events' would favour Leave. Nothing has made me change my mind.
This time the shock will be that there won't be a second referendum..
Despite all the evidence that the Vote Leave campaign is working well - being positive, raising immigration but in the correct tone - Farage blunders in with an extremely inflammatory poster and stands in front of it grinning in an obscene manner. Just as the momentum is with Leave.
Why roll the dice when we are winning?
I and I suspect a good few other PBers always felt you'd end up in the Remain camp.
I did some delivery (a constructive leaflet from our MEP talking about her work in Europe, much more persuasive than the nonsense in the media and I wouldn't touch anything from the official campaigns) last night on an estate that I'd been told should be good - 3 Vote Leave posters 0 Remain posters. We'll see.
A vote to Remain and we get nothing and, given how far things have gone, we may just get contempt.
Besides I still believe the most likely result is EFTA membership.
I've been a Brexiteer because I worry about democracy and sovereignty (or lack of) immigration has never been a concern for me and finding myself on the same side of the debate as Farage and UKIP is very uncomfortable... In normal circumstances I rate these people as complete nut cases and would be ashamed to be associated with them as I'm sure has been noted over the years
This is the great pity of Cameron's lost renegotiation opportunity. Because of his lamentable failure to get a genuine deal that reforms our relationship with with the EU I've been forced to the same side as Farage... A place I'm very uncomfortable to be it must be said.
Or, the EU loses the UK market without a deal...
Depends on how many Gareth Bale Scores.
OT - getting quite a few e-mails in from Vote Leave for the final push.
It's madness to vote Leave because you don't like the renegotiation, as Dr Wollaston realised.
Leave needs to exude maximum professionalism, soberity and responsibility from now until polling day.
London 55% Remain 45% Leave, Midlands 60% Leave 40% Remain, North 54% Leave 46% Remain, South 51% Leave 49% Remain, Scotland 68% Remain 32% Leave
27% of voters across the UK were unable to name the exact date of the #EURef when asked in a recent survey – get 23/06 in your diary now!
The thought of Lord Farage sitting in the Cabinet after standing in front of that poster makes me shudder.
It is exactly what the Government want, of course.
It's not the fear of a Leave vote that's killing me at the moment, it's the hope. Cruel, cruel hope.
I can deal with defeat; I can be ecstatic at knowing a forthcoming victory. But I absolutely will be crushed if this looks there for the taking and totally slips through our hands.
We simply MUST not let this opportunity pass.
So if we leave the EU will continue to act in the way that best preserve their goals. Indeed that job will probably be much easier with us out of the way.
If SeanT is worried about his house prices he really shouldn't, especially as he lives in London, migrants will always come here. The dynamc London economy will continue to thrive. Chill.
Who can forget his crazed, tearful, druggy, suicidal pleadings to the Scots not to leave when Independence looked likely a few days before the Sindy ?
Still, Sean recovered soon enough, and the Scots were receiving the full blast of his contempt a few days later.
I'm saying it the way I see it, you're spinning, he's fibbing.
Nothing? Since we won't be leaving the EU for a while, even with a Leave vote.
If we don't like the way the EU develops we can elect a government with a manifesto pledge to take us out and don't even need to have another referendum. Then we're out.
I would expect that the arrangements would continue unchanged.
Actually think Leadsom, Gove, May, Davidson, and others, will make a fantastic and sensible team, though.
Thankfully once we've left the EU the notional of proportional representation in England will be abolished with the MEPs and Farage will be unemployed not an MP.