Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me
I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.
I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.
That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.
These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.
What do I do? What is the moral course of action?
Grow some?
If you believe that there will be a recession and house price falls which will badly affect those that you care about (and millions you don't know), then you know what to do.
I do believe there will be a recession - in the next couple of years it's inevitable, whether triggered by 'Brexit uncertainty' or simply as an inevitable result of an unproductive country living beyond its means on borrowed money.
WHEN that recession comes, I would prefer it to come sooner, be less severe, and for our recovery to be outside a costly moribund customs union that severely damages our economic interests. I want our Government to be able and willing to act decisively with autonomy. Indeed I see this as the only route to a quick and sustained recovery.
Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me
I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.
I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.
That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.
These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.
What do I do? What is the moral course of action?
Sounds like your friends intend to vote with their wallets rather than their morals.
13% Don't Know, if they all went Remain it would be 55% Remain 45% Leave, it is again the undecideds who are pivotal. Leave lead but it is still too close to call
It's a powerful poster, but I don't like it. I'm not sure it's quite Mein Kampf but it has sinister overtones.
A mistake, and it might backfire. LEAVE needs to keep it clean in the last week.
This is so sinister I had assumed it was a spoof.
The frustrating thing is that Leave have taken the lead by pushing Farage to one side and not doing this kind of crap. If Farage really does push himself to the fore in the next week with this kind of horribleness he could undo much of the good work Vote Leave have done and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Quite possibly why Remain remain favourites to win!
Golly, Carney has gone off the deep end according to Sky.
I think those Leaver MPs who think it is clever to undermine the Governor of the Bank of England when we will need him to help calm the markets in the event of a Leave vote need their heads examining. Britons are entitled to vote Leave but the BoE has a job to do to ensure that the immediate consequences are handled calmly and with as little disruption as possible. Pissing off the people charged with that job is a sign of political immaturity and seriously makes me wonder whether I would wish to entrust my country to people with such poor judgment, frankly.
Have you decided who you are voting for?
..... It is the consequences for British politics which are troubling me. Perhaps it's me but I heard Osborne on the radio yesterday and it didn't incite the reaction which it seems to have in others. If the facts change as a result of a vote of course a Chancellor has to look at his budget again. That seems to me to be no more than a statement of the obvious. But a period of prolonged political uncertainty with all sorts of people in charge who lack gravitas and judgment and thought is worrying. .......
Cyclefree. I view the removal of Osborne as a major upside. We have in him a part time chancellor, primarily focused on advancing his career and eliminating rivals, by putting his people into roles all over Govt. That unprofessional behaviour in a major company would cause massive problems if the Finance Director did that by promoting/appointing across all departments people based on being mates and not merit. (I have seen something similar in a FTSE 100 company that no longer exists). With Osborne being replaced we are highly likely to get a person 100% focused on their job. The Treasury will be run better and we will see far far fewer mates getting appointed throughout Govt. One example of this is Andrea Leadsom. A highly able woman with bags of experience and ability. Yet she was held back from getting govt roles for several years, just because she stood up to Osborne. I have the view that a more meritocratic govt will be better run than one filled with Osborne's cronies such as Matt Hancock and Amber Rudd etc etc.
Uh-oh we've entered that short period before any given election when SeanT shares his vacillations
lol. I know. I'm an idiot.
But surely I'm not the only one with moral collywobbles. This is probably the most serious decision I will make in my life, as a voter. And there ARE grave risks, on both sides.
Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me
I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.
I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.
That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.
These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.
What do I do? What is the moral course of action?
What you do has to be for your own conscience. My view is that we're already overdue a correction, and not just in the UK. The levels of global indebtedness are breathtaking.
The European economies are, by and large, basket cases where we're reduced to debating which is the least worst off, with the probably exception of Germany (and even Germany isn't immune to the likely issues arising in China and elsewhere).
Rather than waffle on, to me it's a choice between a recession soon and a recession next year. Brexit might help the EZ break its internal deadlocks and decisively break for full on integration. Hence, while Brexit might be bad for Europe, it might also prove to be a very practical way of breaking the logjam (c.f. the Telegraph article from the Euro diplomat).
You're not necessarily bringing armageddon onto your friends. But do what you need to do to sleep soundly at night.
+1 - I can't argue with any the above. As a certain TV program says Winter is Coming and you can only delay it so long....
vote with you conscious - their votes outweigh yours anyway....
Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me
I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.
I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.
That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.
These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.
What do I do? What is the moral course of action?
Philosophers might provide moral guidance.
Bentham would vote Remain - greatest good of the greatest number - not personal interest or gratification.
Kant would vote Remain. Categorical imperative. He also wrote, just after the French Revolution, "The effects which an upheaval in any state [as a result of war with another state] produces upon all the others in our continent, where all are so closely linked by trade, are so perceptible that these other states are forced by their own insecurity to offer themselves as arbiters, albeit without legal authority, so that they indirectly prepare the way for a great political body of the future, without precedence in the past. Although this political body exists for the present only in the roughest of outlines, it nonetheless seems as if a feeling is beginning to stir in all its members, each of which has an interest in maintaining the whole. And this encourages the hope that, after many revolutions, the highest purpose of nature, a universal cosmopolitan existence, will at last be realized as the matrix within which all the original capacities of the human race may develop." Very prescient.
Rawlings would be a Remainer. Wish for a state of the world in which you do not know your position in it rather than based on your existing position.
I think, ethically, Remain has it. Remain has it.
Edit: And another moral philosopher said "Love thy neighbour as thyself."
Uh-oh we've entered that short period before any given election when SeanT shares his vacillations
lol. I know. I'm an idiot.
But surely I'm not the only one with moral collywobbles. This is probably the most serious decision I will make in my life, as a voter. And there ARE grave risks, on both sides.
Your dilemma is not a moral one, it's one of political and economic judgement.
PS - Inclusion of Northern Ireland in EU Ref opinion polls.
Is Northern Ireland included in these opinion polls? If not, are the pollsters adjusting for this to provide a UK figure or are they just providing GB figures?
I suspect that many Sean and Sean's agent lady types would have ideally liked a free pass – i.e. being able to vote Leave knowing Remain were well ahead. Sadly that is not the case and we need them. The government must do all it can to bring some of these votes over in the final days.
I think this is exactly right. What's the percentage who would vote Leave as a protest but aren't sure they really want it to happen? Probably a huge number.
Sean is totally going to bottle voting Leave. Spineless.
No, I'm not (I don't think). I won't know until the day, I reckon.
But I'd be lying if I said I'm untroubled. This vote pains me, greatly. And if LEAVE wins any triumph I feel will be bitterly tempered by the sadness and anxiety of friends and family.
We're overdue a recession in any case, the euro area is going to be mired in crisis from July regardless, goodness knows how the Chinese corporate debt problem is going to be resolved and the USA might elect Donald Trump as president: none of this will be your fault no matter how you vote on the 23rd.
In essence Winter Is Coming, do you want to huddle together in Europe for warmth or look to sunnier climates for opportunities?
I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit
The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)
I think Leave will probably win but what concerns me is that they have implied all these things, with different sections of their voters believing it will deliver mutually contradictory things - freedom of movement and a single market via EEA/EFTA. Once they win they will wash their hands of it and say its up to parliament to sort it out.
Leave are essentially playing a really dishonest game making promises right left and centre and crossing their fingers hoping they won't be in any position to deliver any of them.
If Remainers have any political sense whatsoever they will all leave the cabinet and allow a full-Brexit cabinet to take control for the next year. Although it will have little effect on me I believe Brexit will be a big mistake and if I am proved correct then it is essential that Brexiterts are not allowed to wriggle out of being held accountable for the consequences.
If, as I expect, we do sacrifice FoM then it needs to be done by Brexiters so they can face the voters they have duped.
Uh-oh we've entered that short period before any given election when SeanT shares his vacillations
lol. I know. I'm an idiot.
But surely I'm not the only one with moral collywobbles. This is probably the most serious decision I will make in my life, as a voter. And there ARE grave risks, on both sides.
Yeah I'm only pulling your leg. Contrary to your earlier anecdote I've heard from several people today, one an ardent Remainer, who are now voting Leave.
A question for PBers on free movement after a leave vote:
I currently live in France, but will be moving back to the UK for a year between late 2016/2017. After that year I would be intending to move back to France.
How would leaving affect my plans here? assuming we follow the article 50 route the earliest we would leave is 2018 so I should be able to move back without an issue, but I could be kicked out once we leave as I will only have moved back after a brexit vote, so will those acquired rights still count (if they ever were to count at all)?
It's completely impossible to say for sure, since it depends entirely on the agreement reached with the EU. You won't have 'acquired rights' unless the French decide to grant them (the Vienna Convention, which Leavers quote in their ignorance, refers to the rights of states, not individuals, and in any case France didn't sign it).
In practice, I'd expect the UK and other EU countries to grant each other's citizens reciprocal rights of residence, but probably involving more bureaucracy and not automatically as of right. Also your healthcare costs might become much more expensive.
The healthcare point is interesting. Pensioners currently get it for free via the EU. For the poorer among them losing that right means they have to return to the UK - especially if they are already in poor health. either way the British taxpayer pays - except if they are forced to return add on housing and other benefit costs as well.
13% Don't Know, if they all went Remain it would be 55% Remain 45% Leave, it is again the undecideds who are pivotal. Leave lead but it is still too close to call
They wouldn't all go Remain, but if they were to split 2/1 Remain, they could just scrape home.
Uh-oh we've entered that short period before any given election when SeanT shares his vacillations
lol. I know. I'm an idiot.
But surely I'm not the only one with moral collywobbles. This is probably the most serious decision I will make in my life, as a voter. And there ARE grave risks, on both sides.
The closer we get to achieving our goals and dreams the more internal resistance we face.
I suspect that many Sean and Sean's agent lady types would have ideally liked a free pass – i.e. being able to vote Leave knowing Remain were well ahead. Sadly that is not the case and we need them. The government must do all it can to bring some of these votes over in the final days.
I think this is exactly right. What's the percentage who would vote Leave as a protest but aren't sure they really want it to happen? Probably a huge number.
"Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned. The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity."
By inclination I've seldom been 100% for or against anything. The world is subtle and nuanced far beyond my poor mental capabilities. All I can say is that I've thought long and hard about the implications for me, my child, my countrymen and the country itself. I've even spared a thought or two for Europe.
We're about effect a large change in the world, whether that's go or stay. Whatever we do, some will gain, others lose. It's the degree and extent of those gains and losses that we're debating.
This site seems to be in general agreement that immigration control is going to be incredibly hard to achieve. As the current rate that means the next GE will be fought on the basis of an additional 1.2 million souls in the country.
Pity our leaders if you can, it's going to be awful.
PS - Inclusion of Northern Ireland in EU Ref opinion polls.
Is Northern Ireland included in these opinion polls? If not, are the pollsters adjusting for this to provide a UK figure or are they just providing GB figures?
They are not and don't adjust for NI, Gibraltar and ex-pats.
Eagles reckons this adds 1.2% to "Remain" whereas @astjohnstone believes it's a quarter of that figure (0.3%). I haven't seen either of their workings.
Sean is totally going to bottle voting Leave. Spineless.
No, I'm not (I don't think). I won't know until the day, I reckon.
But I'd be lying if I said I'm untroubled. This vote pains me, greatly. And if LEAVE wins any triumph I feel will be bitterly tempered by the sadness and anxiety of friends and family.
We're overdue a recession in any case, the euro area is going to be mired in crisis from July regardless, goodness knows how the Chinese corporate debt problem is going to be resolved and the USA might elect Donald Trump as president: none of this will be your fault no matter how you vote on the 23rd.
In essence Winter Is Coming, do you want to huddle together in Europe for warmth or look to sunnier climates for opportunities?
Why is the Eurozone going to be mired in crisis from July?
I think my fellow Remainers are getting ahead of themselves. The polls showing Leave ahead are online polls, which are filled with mad Kippers overstuffing internet panels. The phone polls show it too close to call, and many of the rabble voting Leave won't show up.
@PA: #Breaking Bank warns it is "increasingly probable" Brexit vote would send the pound plummeting - minutes of interest rate decision
Funny that Mervyn King and the markets don't agree.
Pound dropped a fifth of a cent just after the Survation Poll. The FTSE 100 dropped a bit this morning but is broadly unaffected by the Two opinion polls - this is probably on the back of large falls in Tokyo (wasn't that mentioned lalst night?) The FTSE 250 has dropped 1.% - again mainly, but not totally, on the opening. Leave in to 2.36 on Betfair.
PS - Inclusion of Northern Ireland in EU Ref opinion polls.
Is Northern Ireland included in these opinion polls? If not, are the pollsters adjusting for this to provide a UK figure or are they just providing GB figures?
They are not and don't adjust for NI, Gibraltar and ex-pats.
Eagles reckons this adds 1.2% to "Remain" whereas @astjohnstone believes it's a quarter of that figure (0.3%). I haven't seen either of their workings.
Well Remain will lose c. 100,000 because of the Glastonbury festival
PS - Inclusion of Northern Ireland in EU Ref opinion polls.
Is Northern Ireland included in these opinion polls? If not, are the pollsters adjusting for this to provide a UK figure or are they just providing GB figures?
Survation, BMG and a few others are polling Northern Ireland so producing UK wide figures.
13% Don't Know, if they all went Remain it would be 55% Remain 45% Leave, it is again the undecideds who are pivotal. Leave lead but it is still too close to call
They wouldn't all go Remain, but if they were to split 2/1 Remain, they could just scrape home.
Yes, I still think Remain will just about scrape home in the end but Leave have a real shot now
Golly, Carney has gone off the deep end according to Sky.
I think those Leaver MPs who think it is clever to undermine the Governor of the Bank of England when we will need him to help calm the markets in the event of a Leave vote need their heads examining. Britons are entitled to vote Leave but the BoE has a job to do to ensure that the immediate consequences are handled calmly and with as little disruption as possible. Pissing off the people charged with that job is a sign of political immaturity and seriously makes me wonder whether I would wish to entrust my country to people with such poor judgment, frankly.
Have you decided who you are voting for?
No - not yet. I will post my vote before setting off for Dover in my car. So I have until Sunday evening.
I am finding this the most difficult head/heart decision, to be perfectly frank. I am a European. English is not my mother tongue. My extended family lives in at least 5 Continental countries. I would like to be a Remain because I think that the ideal of a co-operative Europe is a good one. But my experience of working in Brussels and dealing with innumerable Directives has made me very disillusioned. It has gone off the rails and a proper renegotiation should have been a good chance to move it in a better direction for the sake of a lot of countries in Europe, not just Britain. So I am reasonably clear in my own mind about what I think about the EU and about what I would like the EU and Britain in the EU to be.
.
I would agree with that assessment, having also had rather too much experience of Brussels myself in my professional life.
It turned me from mildly pro-EU to anti-EU.
I think the best that can be hoped is that, if we vote Leave, there will be some serious soul-searching and an attempt by the EU to reform & become much more democratic, much less corrupt & wasteful.
Perhaps that is optimistic, perhaps it won’t happen.
But, if we vote to Remain, I think things will just dribble on as before. And so change definitely won’t happen.
Even if, and it is still a big if, the Uk votes to Leave what is, supposedly, a trading arrangement next week
But you know damn well that it's not just a trading arrangement. Brexit would be the biggest shock to European politics since the fall of the Berlin wall. Anyone who says they can predict the consequences is just guessing, and predicting no consequences at all is wishful thinking.
Mr. Glenn, I am sure when I voted in 1975 to stay in I was told that I was voting for a trading arrangement. That there will be consequences to our leaving that trading arrangement I do not doubt. I suspect that they will be less than Project Fear would have me believe, as I have pointed out repeatedly, lots of countries seem to have no problem with trading with EU countries despite not being members of the EU or the single market.
The political side of the EU I regard as wholly malignant.
However, I rather think that I stand by my point that if, and it is a big if, the UK votes to Leave next week there will not be a fascist coup d'etat and that nothing will change immediately.
Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me
I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.
I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.
That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.
These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.
What do I do? What is the moral course of action?
Philosophers might provide moral guidance.
Bentham would vote Remain - greatest good of the greatest number - not personal interest or gratification.
Kant would vote Remain. Categorical imperative. He also wrote, just after the French Revolution, "The effects which an upheaval in any state [as a result of war with another state] produces upon all the others in our continent, where all are so closely linked by trade, are so perceptible that these other states are forced by their own insecurity to offer themselves as arbiters, albeit without legal authority, so that they indirectly prepare the way for a great political body of the future, without precedence in the past. Although this political body exists for the present only in the roughest of outlines, it nonetheless seems as if a feeling is beginning to stir in all its members, each of which has an interest in maintaining the whole. And this encourages the hope that, after many revolutions, the highest purpose of nature, a universal cosmopolitan existence, will at last be realized as the matrix within which all the original capacities of the human race may develop." Very prescient.
Rawlings would be a Remainer. Wish for a state of the world in which you do not know your position in it rather than based on your existing position.
I think, ethically, Remain has it. Remain has it.
Edit: And another moral philosopher said "Love thy neighbour as thyself."
Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me
I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.
I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.
That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.
These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.
What do I do? What is the moral course of action?
Pure logic is that the EU is the best of potential options, especially given that we are already in it.
The likely alternatives will be less and are uncertain. We don't know if we will get the EEA or if it will be qualified to our disfavour (eg no Financial Passport). We should get some kind of Free Trade Arrangment but we don't know yet whether it will be somewhat unfavourable to us or completely one-sided.
Then factor in the disruption and political chaos which will feed into the economy and constitutional and the EU should be a slam-dunk. On the logic.
But it isn't all logic. There is people's identity, fed-upness and sod-themness...
There's a link in your 'logic' that doesn't quite work. If the alternative is uncertain then why is it less? If the future is uncertain then, by pure logic, you can't assert that it will be better or worse. You can 'believe' or 'forecast/guess' what might happen but that isn't the same thing as 'logic'.
It is a looser, less integrated relationship, so it is definitely less. Whether less is worse is another matter, but that's where the uncertainty kicks in. We don't know what the alternative relationship will be, so we can't assume it will be better. And there is an argument that less really does mean worse because less economic activity means less money and fewer jobs.
PS - Inclusion of Northern Ireland in EU Ref opinion polls.
Is Northern Ireland included in these opinion polls? If not, are the pollsters adjusting for this to provide a UK figure or are they just providing GB figures?
They are not and don't adjust for NI, Gibraltar and ex-pats.
Eagles reckons this adds 1.2% to "Remain" whereas @astjohnstone believes it's a quarter of that figure (0.3%). I haven't seen either of their workings.
Well Remain will lose c. 100,000 because of the Glastonbury festival
In the weeks since the May Report, an increasing range of financial asset prices has become more sensitive to market perceptions of the likely outcome of the forthcoming EU referendum. On the evidence of the recent behaviour of the foreign exchange market, it appears increasingly likely that, were the UK to vote to leave the EU, sterling’s exchange rate would fall further, perhaps sharply. This would be consistent with changes to the fundamentals underpinning the exchange rate, including worsening terms of trade, lower productivity, and higher risk premia. In addition, UK short-term interest rates and measures of UK bank funding costs appear to have been materially influenced by opinion polls about the referendum. These effects have also become evident in non-sterling assets: market contacts attribute much of the deterioration in global risk sentiment to increasing uncertainty ahead of the referendum. The outcome of the referendum continues to be the largest immediate risk facing UK financial markets, and possibly also global financial markets.
PS - Inclusion of Northern Ireland in EU Ref opinion polls.
Is Northern Ireland included in these opinion polls? If not, are the pollsters adjusting for this to provide a UK figure or are they just providing GB figures?
They are not and don't adjust for NI, Gibraltar and ex-pats.
Eagles reckons this adds 1.2% to "Remain" whereas @astjohnstone believes it's a quarter of that figure (0.3%). I haven't seen either of their workings.
The nikkei225 fell 3% last night. Was it a) Brexit or b) global downturns or c) rise in the Japanese yen against the dollar threatens exporters prospects or d) the football results at euro2016?
PS - Inclusion of Northern Ireland in EU Ref opinion polls.
Is Northern Ireland included in these opinion polls? If not, are the pollsters adjusting for this to provide a UK figure or are they just providing GB figures?
They are not and don't adjust for NI, Gibraltar and ex-pats.
Eagles reckons this adds 1.2% to "Remain" whereas @astjohnstone believes it's a quarter of that figure (0.3%). I haven't seen either of their workings.
Well Remain will lose c. 100,000 because of the Glastonbury festival
Surely they've all got their postal votes in ?
You really think that Glasto fans will have organised that? I write that as a frequent festival goer so it's not taking the mickey.
I'll bet the number of them who organised a postal vote is less than 10%.
I think my fellow Remainers are getting ahead of themselves. The polls showing Leave ahead are online polls, which are filled with mad Kippers overstuffing internet panels. The phone polls show it too close to call, and many of the rabble voting Leave won't show up.
ICM, Ipsos MORI and Survation phone polls have had Leave leads this week. ComRes had a 1 point Remain lead.
Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me
I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.
I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.
That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.
These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.
What do I do? What is the moral course of action?
Vote Leave. There won't be a recession because we are not going to suddenly pull out, on the 24th it will be gradual. You havetold us you are surrounded by people who are strongly lefty upper middle class remainers and haven't really had a chance to hear from avreage people voting Leave. Please go canvassing in a wwc area to find out why people are voting Leave, it will open ur eyes that this is more than just immigration. Go to Vote leave website, Events and put in London and events will come up it will take 2 hours of your day. I used to be one of those annoying door to door chuggers and it kinda widens ur views, it will give u ideas for writing aswell.
Voting Leave simply gives instructions to our Government to negotiate a looser relationship with the EU based upon the mandate secured by the Leave campaign.
Real politik governs as soon as it's cast. Neither the UK or EU is going to do anything f**king stupid and nor will either side get everything they want.
We will get a sensible plan for gradual withdrawal within the bounds of what is practically possible.
PS - Inclusion of Northern Ireland in EU Ref opinion polls.
Is Northern Ireland included in these opinion polls? If not, are the pollsters adjusting for this to provide a UK figure or are they just providing GB figures?
They are not and don't adjust for NI, Gibraltar and ex-pats.
Eagles reckons this adds 1.2% to "Remain" whereas @astjohnstone believes it's a quarter of that figure (0.3%). I haven't seen either of their workings.
Well Remain will lose c. 100,000 because of the Glastonbury festival
Aha, a passing straw to clutch. Keep it up Martin.
Previously it looks like DK's split about 60/40 for Remain. DK's hav shrunk as the campiagn has gone on. If the Leave inclined have been peeled off then that leaves the DK's as majority Remain.
And then come the vote everyone will start screaming about non-existant swingback.
If Remainers have any political sense whatsoever they will all leave the cabinet and allow a full-Brexit cabinet to take control for the next year. Although it will have little effect on me I believe Brexit will be a big mistake and if I am proved correct then it is essential that Brexiterts are not allowed to wriggle out of being held accountable for the consequences.
If, as I expect, we do sacrifice FoM then it needs to be done by Brexiters so they can face the voters they have duped.
That must be a huge temptation.
"You broke it, you own it"
I asked yesterday for fantasy Brexit cabinet suggestions.
PM - BoZo Chancellor - Peter Bone International Development - Lord Farage Home Secretary - Priti Patel (no point playing Hunt the Traitor if you can't hang 'em at the end) Education - Michael Gove Culture Media and Sport - The Moggster
Sean is totally going to bottle voting Leave. Spineless.
No, I'm not (I don't think). I won't know until the day, I reckon.
But I'd be lying if I said I'm untroubled. This vote pains me, greatly. And if LEAVE wins any triumph I feel will be bitterly tempered by the sadness and anxiety of friends and family.
We're overdue a recession in any case, the euro area is going to be mired in crisis from July regardless, goodness knows how the Chinese corporate debt problem is going to be resolved and the USA might elect Donald Trump as president: none of this will be your fault no matter how you vote on the 23rd.
In essence Winter Is Coming, do you want to huddle together in Europe for warmth or look to sunnier climates for opportunities?
If you were looking for sunnier climates for opportunities you would be looking at Brazil, hardly the strongest economy in the world at the moment and of course Europe has Spain and Greece, sunny but again not economically the strongest for now
I think my fellow Remainers are getting ahead of themselves. The polls showing Leave ahead are online polls, which are filled with mad Kippers overstuffing internet panels. The phone polls show it too close to call, and many of the rabble voting Leave won't show up.
I'm not sure 4 posts in is a great time to start flinging insults around.
Like I said in the previous thread, the idea that the Swiss have suffered no effect from their decision to restrict free movement is not tenable from science funding pov (a subject which I have some interest in having once, some time ago, been an Italian-based Erasmus researcher with collaborating groups based in various countries including Switzerland)
Synopsis of the Swiss-EU science story (as at December 2015) 1. Switzerland is not a member of the EU but since 1992 has obtained full access to Framework Programmes, as part of agreements that also guarantee free movement of persons, contributing to the FP budget alongside other EU members. 2. In 2014, a popular vote to limit mass migration was passed by a margin of 50.3 to 49.7% 3. The Swiss government was then unable to commit to ratification of a free movement accord with Croatia. 4. Switzerland was suspended from access to Horizon 2020. 5. The Swiss government was forced to replicate at national level a temporary programme to replace immediate access to the ERC programme and subsequently negotiated limited access to H2020, with much reduced access to programmes, exclusion from the new SME Instrument and loss of ability to coordinate collaborative research within H2020. This is reliant on continued freedom of movement. Switzerland also funds Swiss participants in EU collaborative programmes directly at national level, requiring parallel domestic administration and an agreement to accept all funding decisions made in Brussels, effectively losing control of its national science budget. 6. The Swiss were also not included on Erasmus+. They chose to ensure continuation of the scheme by paying nationally both for students leaving and for those coming in (i.e. paying double what they would as a member of the international programme). 7. Negotiated access to H2020 will end in 2016, when Switzerland must either ratify the Croatia treaty or lose access to H2020 plus risk its bilateral trade agreements with the EU. 8. Switzerland must contribute to H2020 based on GDP and population and has no role in developing funding topics.
And noting that the UK, as a much larger player will cause greater problems still.
PS - Inclusion of Northern Ireland in EU Ref opinion polls.
Is Northern Ireland included in these opinion polls? If not, are the pollsters adjusting for this to provide a UK figure or are they just providing GB figures?
They are not and don't adjust for NI, Gibraltar and ex-pats.
Eagles reckons this adds 1.2% to "Remain" whereas @astjohnstone believes it's a quarter of that figure (0.3%). I haven't seen either of their workings.
Well Remain will lose c. 100,000 because of the Glastonbury festival
Surely they've all got their postal votes in ?
You really think that Glasto fans will have organised that? I write that as a frequent festival goer so it's not taking the mickey.
I'll bet the number of them who organised a postal vote is less than 10%.
PS - Inclusion of Northern Ireland in EU Ref opinion polls.
Is Northern Ireland included in these opinion polls? If not, are the pollsters adjusting for this to provide a UK figure or are they just providing GB figures?
They are not and don't adjust for NI, Gibraltar and ex-pats.
Eagles reckons this adds 1.2% to "Remain" whereas @astjohnstone believes it's a quarter of that figure (0.3%). I haven't seen either of their workings.
Well Remain will lose c. 100,000 because of the Glastonbury festival
Surely they've all got their postal votes in ?
You really think that Glasto fans will have organised that? I write that as a frequent festival goer so it's not taking the mickey.
I'll bet the number of them who organised a postal vote is less than 10%.
Remain had a push to get Glastonbury goers postal votes
SeanT worries about the effect on others. The people who we should most worry about are the least of these, per our Christian heritage. Those are the hundreds of millions of Africans who live in destitution and work in agriculture, shut out of EU markets through tariffs and subsidies.
The moral thing to do is to leave the EU and give them a chance to trade themselves out of poverty. Teaching a man to fish, rather than giving him handouts. We could be the first country in the Western world to embrace trade justice for Africa. It would be the 21st Century equivalent of the Slave Trade Act 1807.
Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me
I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.
I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.
That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.
These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.
What do I do? What is the moral course of action?
Vote Leave. There won't be a recession because we are not going to suddenly pull out, on the 24th it will be gradual. You havetold us you are surrounded by people who are strongly lefty upper middle class remainers and haven't really had a chance to hear from avreage people voting Leave. Please go canvassing in a wwc area to find out why people are voting Leave, it will open ur eyes that this is more than just immigration. Go to Vote leave website, Events and put in London and events will come up it will take 2 hours of your day. I used to be one of those annoying door to door chuggers and it kinda widens ur views, it will give u ideas for writing aswell.
Voting Leave simply gives instructions to our Government to negotiate a looser relationship with the EU based upon the mandate secured by the Leave campaign.
Real politik governs as soon as it's cast. Neither the UK or EU is going to do anything f**king stupid and nor will either side get everything they want.
We will get a sensible plan for gradual withdrawal within the bounds of what is practically possible.
Ahem, I must slightly disagree with my esteemed fellow traveller here. There's every chance that the EU will do something stupid. The EC in particular is emulating the oak rather than the willow. It will not bend, and it will be terrified of contagion.
This is worst case, of course. I do hope it will turn out well, but we mustn't forget that we will be ruining a dream that some in the EU have spent their whole lives working towards; a true USE.
Even if, and it is still a big if, the Uk votes to Leave what is, supposedly, a trading arrangement next week
But you know damn well that it's not just a trading arrangement. Brexit would be the biggest shock to European politics since the fall of the Berlin wall. Anyone who says they can predict the consequences is just guessing, and predicting no consequences at all is wishful thinking.
Mr. Glenn, I am sure when I voted in 1975 to stay in I was told that I was voting for a trading arrangement. That there will be consequences to our leaving that trading arrangement I do not doubt. I suspect that they will be less than Project Fear would have me believe, as I have pointed out repeatedly, lots of countries seem to have no problem with trading with EU countries despite not being members of the EU or the single market.
The political side of the EU I regard as wholly malignant.
However, I rather think that I stand by my point that if, and it is a big if, the UK votes to Leave next week there will not be a fascist coup d'etat and that nothing will change immediately.
Absolutely! I have the same recollection. We've been lied to for 40 years
Uh-oh we've entered that short period before any given election when SeanT shares his vacillations
lol. I know. I'm an idiot.
But surely I'm not the only one with moral collywobbles. This is probably the most serious decision I will make in my life, as a voter. And there ARE grave risks, on both sides.
Perceived risks. Our perception of risk is often very distorted from reality.
And if we believe the polls then it's the very people who you are concerned about that realise it is not in their interest to remain.
Sean is totally going to bottle voting Leave. Spineless.
No, I'm not (I don't think). I won't know until the day, I reckon.
But I'd be lying if I said I'm untroubled. This vote pains me, greatly. And if LEAVE wins any triumph I feel will be bitterly tempered by the sadness and anxiety of friends and family.
We're overdue a recession in any case, the euro area is going to be mired in crisis from July regardless, goodness knows how the Chinese corporate debt problem is going to be resolved and the USA might elect Donald Trump as president: none of this will be your fault no matter how you vote on the 23rd.
In essence Winter Is Coming, do you want to huddle together in Europe for warmth or look to sunnier climates for opportunities?
Why is the Eurozone going to be mired in crisis from July?
It's the Hunchman theory of the world. It's based on the combined cycles of Nuneaton property prices over the last 137.24 years and the timing frequency of trains on the S2 line in Frankfurt.
There is a video doing the rounds of English fans teasing refugee children in Lille by throwing coins around them and laughing as they scarper to grab the coin first.
Just over half of economists polled by Reuters in April, for instance, said the Bank of England would probably respond by cutting rates to cushion the economy against a slowdown. The remainder, however, predicted a rate hike, perhaps to head off a rise in inflation set off by a plunge in sterling.
Well, of course President Truman famously asked for a one-handed economist, fed up as he was with economists saying 'on the one hand... on the other hand..".
In this particular case, though, I think they are right to be confused. It is not at all obvious what the BoE could do to stimulate the economy in a Brexit-induced downturn with sterling falling. Lowering interest rates (or, more likely, reintroducing QE) to provide some stimulus would make the fall in sterling worse. The room for manoeuvre would be extremely limited.
I think my fellow Remainers are getting ahead of themselves. The polls showing Leave ahead are online polls, which are filled with mad Kippers overstuffing internet panels. The phone polls show it too close to call, and many of the rabble voting Leave won't show up.
ICM, Ipsos MORI and Survation phone polls have had Leave leads this week. ComRes had a 1 point Remain lead.
WIth respect to Sean T's dilemma earlier a lot of other people have also commented. Here's my take:
You have to go with what kind of country you want. I don't think we have anything like economic security at the moment - the ranks of those struggling has swollen from the unemployed to the working class poor to graduates to southern middle class. The economic system that has driven this country for the last 30 years has stopped working for millions and its only inertia and TINA that preserves it.
So yes, a leave vote will probably bring about economic interesting times in the short term. But I think that's coming anyway.
Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me
I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.
I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.
That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.
These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.
What do I do? What is the moral course of action?
Vote Leave. There won't be a recession because we are not going to suddenly pull out, on the 24th it will be gradual. You havetold us you are surrounded by people who are strongly lefty upper middle class remainers and haven't really had a chance to hear from avreage people voting Leave. Please go canvassing in a wwc area to find out why people are voting Leave, it will open ur eyes that this is more than just immigration. Go to Vote leave website, Events and put in London and events will come up it will take 2 hours of your day. I used to be one of those annoying door to door chuggers and it kinda widens ur views, it will give u ideas for writing aswell.
Voting Leave simply gives instructions to our Government to negotiate a looser relationship with the EU based upon the mandate secured by the Leave campaign.
Real politik governs as soon as it's cast. Neither the UK or EU is going to do anything f**king stupid and nor will either side get everything they want.
We will get a sensible plan for gradual withdrawal within the bounds of what is practically possible.
Ahem, I must slightly disagree with my esteemed fellow traveller here. There's every chance that the EU will do something stupid. The EC in particular is emulating the oak rather than the willow. It will not bend, and it will be terrified of contagion.
This is worst case, of course. I do hope it will turn out well, but we mustn't forget that we will be ruining a dream that some in the EU have spent their whole lives working towards; a true USE.
People do odd things in a crisis.
No. Don't think so. See the EU article on the front page of the Telegraph today. EU are now talking about how "life will go on" and British membership is 50/50 benefit/disbenefit anyway.
On Monday, they were talking about the end of Western civilisation.
SeanT worries about the effect on others. The people who we should most worry about are the least of these, per our Christian heritage.
Agree. But when doing so we should also consider the impact the EU can have, when acting together, on issues such as human rights or people trafficking, or on corruption. It's not as forceful as it could be, but it's a better influence than, say, China is.
SeanT worries about the effect on others. The people who we should most worry about are the least of these, per our Christian heritage. Those are the hundreds of millions of Africans who live in destitution and work in agriculture, shut out of EU markets through tariffs and subsidies.
The moral thing to do is to leave the EU and give them a chance to trade themselves out of poverty. Teaching a man to fish, rather than giving him handouts. We could be the first country in the Western world to embrace trade justice for Africa. It would be the 21st Century equivalent of the Slave Trade Act 1807.
Even if, and it is still a big if, the Uk votes to Leave what is, supposedly, a trading arrangement next week
But you know damn well that it's not just a trading arrangement. Brexit would be the biggest shock to European politics since the fall of the Berlin wall. Anyone who says they can predict the consequences is just guessing, and predicting no consequences at all is wishful thinking.
Mr. Glenn, I am sure when I voted in 1975 to stay in I was told that I was voting for a trading arrangement. That there will be consequences to our leaving that trading arrangement I do not doubt. I suspect that they will be less than Project Fear would have me believe, as I have pointed out repeatedly, lots of countries seem to have no problem with trading with EU countries despite not being members of the EU or the single market.
The political side of the EU I regard as wholly malignant.
However, I rather think that I stand by my point that if, and it is a big if, the UK votes to Leave next week there will not be a fascist coup d'etat and that nothing will change immediately.
Absolutely! I have the same recollection. We've been lied to for 40 years
At what point do you have to take responsibility for informing yourself as a citizen of a democracy? If a politician lies you you, take it out on them, not on the rest of us.
PS - Inclusion of Northern Ireland in EU Ref opinion polls.
Is Northern Ireland included in these opinion polls? If not, are the pollsters adjusting for this to provide a UK figure or are they just providing GB figures?
They are not and don't adjust for NI, Gibraltar and ex-pats.
Eagles reckons this adds 1.2% to "Remain" whereas @astjohnstone believes it's a quarter of that figure (0.3%). I haven't seen either of their workings.
Thanks - a big variance between 1.2% and 0.3%!!
We don't know how many ex-pats in the EU have registered to vote. I think the maximum could not exceed 300,000 (only 106,000 ex-pats in total were registered to vote in 2015). Let's assume they vote 70/30 Remain. That's 120,000 net votes for Remain.
Say, 700,000 people vote in Northern Ireland. Let's say Northern Ireland goes 57/43 Remain. That's 98,000 votes net for Remain.
Say, 23,000 people vote in Gibraltar, and back Remain 90/10. That's 18,000 votes net for Remain.
Overall, a net 236,000 for Remain. If about 30 million people vote in Great Britain, that would be about 0.67% of the total. Quite possible crucial, if the contest is very tight.
@BethRigby: BREAK: @JeremyClarkson to join Cameron on campaign trail today - former #TopGear man, reaching the voters that others #remainers can't reach
Uh-oh we've entered that short period before any given election when SeanT shares his vacillations
lol. I know. I'm an idiot.
But surely I'm not the only one with moral collywobbles. This is probably the most serious decision I will make in my life, as a voter. And there ARE grave risks, on both sides.
Perceived risks. Our perception of risk is often very distorted from reality.
And if we believe the polls then it's the very people who you are concerned about that realise it is not in their interest to remain.
It's project fear kicking in as it's mean to do.
As Harry Cole said, you dismiss it and laugh at it at the time, but when it actually comes to casting a vote..
It works because it engages the fundamental emotional response in your brainstem to risk. It can be overcome but requires quite hard work of the rational mind to reason through it. That's why the Fear will continue to be ramped up over the next 7 days from now until polling day.
But give into and there will be no end to this sort of political campaigning forever more.
There is a video doing the rounds of English fans teasing refugee children in Lille by throwing coins around them and laughing as they scarper to grab the coin first.
Not good.
It happened a couple of days ago. There are all sorts of videos of poorly behaviour by England fans, including trying to copy the Russian ultras by kicking the crap out of somebody. Luckily, they aren't as well trained as the Russians and the guy doesn't take the sort of damage inflicted by the Russian Ultras.
Comments
WHEN that recession comes, I would prefer it to come sooner, be less severe, and for our recovery to be outside a costly moribund customs union that severely damages our economic interests. I want our Government to be able and willing to act decisively with autonomy. Indeed I see this as the only route to a quick and sustained recovery.
vote with you conscious - their votes outweigh yours anyway....
There's a reason why Leave didn't want him fronting the campaign. Farage =/= Leave
Is Northern Ireland included in these opinion polls? If not, are the pollsters adjusting for this to provide a UK figure or are they just providing GB figures?
In essence Winter Is Coming, do you want to huddle together in Europe for warmth or look to sunnier climates for opportunities?
http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2016/6/16/brexit-helped-keep-fed-on-hold-could-slow-future-u.s.-rate-rises
Leave are essentially playing a really dishonest game making promises right left and centre and crossing their fingers hoping they won't be in any position to deliver any of them.
If Remainers have any political sense whatsoever they will all leave the cabinet and allow a full-Brexit cabinet to take control for the next year. Although it will have little effect on me I believe Brexit will be a big mistake and if I am proved correct then it is essential that Brexiterts are not allowed to wriggle out of being held accountable for the consequences.
If, as I expect, we do sacrifice FoM then it needs to be done by Brexiters so they can face the voters they have duped.
Vote Leave.
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned.
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity."
By inclination I've seldom been 100% for or against anything. The world is subtle and nuanced far beyond my poor mental capabilities. All I can say is that I've thought long and hard about the implications for me, my child, my countrymen and the country itself. I've even spared a thought or two for Europe.
We're about effect a large change in the world, whether that's go or stay. Whatever we do, some will gain, others lose. It's the degree and extent of those gains and losses that we're debating.
This site seems to be in general agreement that immigration control is going to be incredibly hard to achieve. As the current rate that means the next GE will be fought on the basis of an additional 1.2 million souls in the country.
Pity our leaders if you can, it's going to be awful.
Eagles reckons this adds 1.2% to "Remain" whereas @astjohnstone believes it's a quarter of that figure (0.3%). I haven't seen either of their workings.
Again if momentum is what we look for, and I really think it should be, this is seismic.
Leave have led in 9 of the last 11 polls and it's the scale of swing that is pretty staggering.
If Dont know break 60-40% to remain on the day they win with NI etc.
The FTSE 100 dropped a bit this morning but is broadly unaffected by the Two opinion polls - this is probably on the back of large falls in Tokyo (wasn't that mentioned lalst night?)
The FTSE 250 has dropped 1.% - again mainly, but not totally, on the opening.
Leave in to 2.36 on Betfair.
(By the way that's not an entirely trite remark)
It turned me from mildly pro-EU to anti-EU.
I think the best that can be hoped is that, if we vote Leave, there will be some serious soul-searching and an attempt by the EU to reform & become much more democratic, much less corrupt & wasteful.
Perhaps that is optimistic, perhaps it won’t happen.
But, if we vote to Remain, I think things will just dribble on as before. And so change definitely won’t happen.
The political side of the EU I regard as wholly malignant.
However, I rather think that I stand by my point that if, and it is a big if, the UK votes to Leave next week there will not be a fascist coup d'etat and that nothing will change immediately.
In the weeks since the May Report, an increasing range of financial asset prices has become more sensitive to market perceptions of the likely outcome of the forthcoming EU referendum. On the evidence of the recent behaviour of the foreign exchange market, it appears increasingly likely that, were the UK to vote to leave the EU, sterling’s exchange rate would fall further, perhaps sharply. This would be consistent with changes to the fundamentals underpinning the exchange rate, including worsening terms of trade, lower productivity, and higher risk premia. In addition, UK short-term interest rates and measures of UK bank funding costs appear to have been materially influenced by opinion polls about the referendum. These effects have also become evident in non-sterling assets: market contacts attribute much of the deterioration in global risk sentiment to increasing uncertainty ahead of the referendum. The outcome of the referendum continues to be the largest immediate risk facing UK financial markets, and possibly also global financial markets.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/news/2016/006.aspx
Adding back these respondents into the initial leave/remain voting intention once again had the effect of a slight (1%) boost to the Remain figure:
Remain 49% Leave 51%
I'll bet the number of them who organised a postal vote is less than 10%.
Real politik governs as soon as it's cast. Neither the UK or EU is going to do anything f**king stupid and nor will either side get everything they want.
We will get a sensible plan for gradual withdrawal within the bounds of what is practically possible.
And then come the vote everyone will start screaming about non-existant swingback.
"You broke it, you own it"
I asked yesterday for fantasy Brexit cabinet suggestions.
PM - BoZo
Chancellor - Peter Bone
International Development - Lord Farage
Home Secretary - Priti Patel (no point playing Hunt the Traitor if you can't hang 'em at the end)
Education - Michael Gove
Culture Media and Sport - The Moggster
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2015/12/05/debunking-the-myths-about-british-science-after-an-eu-exit/
from which I borrow this synopsis:
Synopsis of the Swiss-EU science story (as at December 2015)
1. Switzerland is not a member of the EU but since 1992 has obtained full access to Framework Programmes, as part of agreements that also guarantee free movement of persons, contributing to the FP budget alongside other EU members.
2. In 2014, a popular vote to limit mass migration was passed by a margin of 50.3 to 49.7%
3. The Swiss government was then unable to commit to ratification of a free movement accord with Croatia.
4. Switzerland was suspended from access to Horizon 2020.
5. The Swiss government was forced to replicate at national level a temporary programme to replace immediate access to the ERC programme and subsequently negotiated limited access to H2020, with much reduced access to programmes, exclusion from the new SME Instrument and loss of ability to coordinate collaborative research within H2020. This is reliant on continued freedom of movement. Switzerland also funds Swiss participants in EU collaborative programmes directly at national level, requiring parallel domestic administration and an agreement to accept all funding decisions made in Brussels, effectively losing control of its national science budget.
6. The Swiss were also not included on Erasmus+. They chose to ensure continuation of the scheme by paying nationally both for students leaving and for those coming in (i.e. paying double what they would as a member of the international programme).
7. Negotiated access to H2020 will end in 2016, when Switzerland must either ratify the Croatia treaty or lose access to H2020 plus risk its bilateral trade agreements with the EU.
8. Switzerland must contribute to H2020 based on GDP and population and has no role in developing funding topics.
And noting that the UK, as a much larger player will cause greater problems still.
The moral thing to do is to leave the EU and give them a chance to trade themselves out of poverty. Teaching a man to fish, rather than giving him handouts. We could be the first country in the Western world to embrace trade justice for Africa. It would be the 21st Century equivalent of the Slave Trade Act 1807.
That is the moral choice.
This is worst case, of course. I do hope it will turn out well, but we mustn't forget that we will be ruining a dream that some in the EU have spent their whole lives working towards; a true USE.
People do odd things in a crisis.
And if we believe the polls then it's the very people who you are concerned about that realise it is not in their interest to remain.
https://twitter.com/VictoriaLIVE/status/743377960942501888
Not good.
In this particular case, though, I think they are right to be confused. It is not at all obvious what the BoE could do to stimulate the economy in a Brexit-induced downturn with sterling falling. Lowering interest rates (or, more likely, reintroducing QE) to provide some stimulus would make the fall in sterling worse. The room for manoeuvre would be extremely limited.
Won't any of those punting the Eurosceptic Scotland line back it up with a bet?
You have to go with what kind of country you want. I don't think we have anything like economic security at the moment - the ranks of those struggling has swollen from the unemployed to the working class poor to graduates to southern middle class. The economic system that has driven this country for the last 30 years has stopped working for millions and its only inertia and TINA that preserves it.
So yes, a leave vote will probably bring about economic interesting times in the short term. But I think that's coming anyway.
The only movement is between DK and Leave/Yes
Come polling day the DK's left will vote Remain - if they vote.
On Monday, they were talking about the end of Western civilisation.
Say, 700,000 people vote in Northern Ireland. Let's say Northern Ireland goes 57/43 Remain. That's 98,000 votes net for Remain.
Say, 23,000 people vote in Gibraltar, and back Remain 90/10. That's 18,000 votes net for Remain.
Overall, a net 236,000 for Remain. If about 30 million people vote in Great Britain, that would be about 0.67% of the total. Quite possible crucial, if the contest is very tight.
*Ducks*
I expect when enough journalists have asked BoZo whether he endorses it they might make a meally mouthed statement
As Harry Cole said, you dismiss it and laugh at it at the time, but when it actually comes to casting a vote..
It works because it engages the fundamental emotional response in your brainstem to risk.
It can be overcome but requires quite hard work of the rational mind to reason through it. That's why the Fear will continue to be ramped up over the next 7 days from now until polling day.
But give into and there will be no end to this sort of political campaigning forever more.