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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori phone poll sees a 10% swing to Leave as Leave ta

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  • Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick
    Farage friend says he's been approached by Boris camp about job in Johnson govt & place in Lords to avoid fighting possible Thanet by-elect

    This is truly terrifying. An out-an-out bigot will be in the British cabinet within weeks.

    A huge realignment of politics is in the air if we vote Leave. Surely moderate Tories have to join forces with moderate Labour and stop this insanity?

    Let him fight a Thanet By-election
    He wont win it
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral paradox, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    Remain.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240
    SeanT said:

    ANECDOTE THINGY ALERT

    My agent, who was very much on the fence, and possibly swinging to LEAVE, has plumped for REMAiN on the grounds that her husband will go bust with LEAVE and she'll "have to live in a semi in Watford"

    I reckon the Worried Professionals will still swing this for REMAIN.

    I'd have thought the key markets for an English publisher would be the UK (+ Australia) and the USA (+ Canada). Why would Brexit impact an English publisher?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Doesn't the BoE announce its interest rate decision today. The devil in me says that it will raise because of mkt uncertainty with a promise to cut if we stay in the EU which will according to Carney bring the economy back to the status quo.
    Far fetched I know but a lot of what has been going on has been far fetched.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Sean is totally going to bottle voting Leave. Spineless.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral paradox, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    Vote Remain.

    I had hoped and expected that you would come around to that view. I had given up.

    Despite your frequent sabre-rattling on here you are clearly a good man.

    As this post shows.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    Aha, a passing straw to clutch. Keep it up Martin.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,440
    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    Vote Remain or abstain.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630

    Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick
    Farage friend says he's been approached by Boris camp about job in Johnson govt & place in Lords to avoid fighting possible Thanet by-elect

    This is truly terrifying. An out-an-out bigot will be in the British cabinet within weeks.

    A huge realignment of politics is in the air if we vote Leave. Surely moderate Tories have to join forces with moderate Labour and stop this insanity?

    A realignment is entirely feasible. But less of the "moderate".

    From Labour's perspective who are the "moderates". The people despairing that their voters are voting for bigotry and racism. The people who abstained on welfare cuts to the poorest. The people who think the best alternative to Tory privatisation and marketisation is Labour privatisation and marketisation.

    When you are that far removed from your own party membership and more importantly the electorate you are not "moderate".

    A new One Nation party with Cameron Clegg and Blair aficionados all on board. A marvellous prospect for all of us who want to see a return to proper Tory and Labour parties.

    How close to the electorate do you think that Labour's anti-Trident, pro-open door immigration membership is?

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Can someone tell me why there is £138,000 or so wanting to back Stay @ 1.69 on Betfair? Seems incongruous and very atypical.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454

    Have these people not heard of internet betting?
    Isn't that £35:00 with a nought added for a laugh???
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    QT panel could be feisty:
    "David Dimbleby presents topical debate from York. On the panel are musician and Remain campaigner Bob Geldof, Labour's former home secretary Alan Johnson MP, Conservative education secretary Nicky Morgan MP, economist Ruth Lea, Leave campaigner and former Labour minister Tom Harris and the novelist and former Conservative MP Louise Mensch."


    Bob Geldof = Eddie Izzard mark II

    The BBC is secretly supporting LEAVE :)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240
    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    I think that they will find that their nightmares are just that ......nightmares, after Brexit.

    Vote Leave.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    SeanT said:

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    The moral course is to be the canary in the coalmine. Summon up all your powers of rhetoric to convince your fellow Leavers that we'd should embrace a European future. :)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited June 2016
    Pauly said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.

    See the UKIP poster...

    QED
    I think the photo on the UKIP poster is a column of Syrian refugees, which isn't actually a problem that will be addressed by leaving the EU.

    But who needs logic?
    They won't be able to come here on mass if Germany or another country decides to give them EU passports Willy nilly.
    I thought about that. But a) That possible situation is down the line - the immediate problem is of refugees and b) They would be German by that point. I don't think Leave are proposing an immigration policy based on racial stereotyping.

    But, heck, that poster isn't there to stimulate reasoned discussion. It's there to play on base fears.

    Your first point a) is dangerous short-term-ism and b) the poster is clearly referring to the fact that if we vote remain the fact that they're German is irrelevant because they can all come here.

    They wouldn't come into Britain as a line of refugees. They might come in as individuals and settled German citizens. Even after Brexit it is going to be difficult to discriminate between Germans of different racial backgrounds.

    But as I say that poster isn't there for rational discussion.
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    Pulpstar said:

    How on earth do you manage to arrange your finances in order to go bust on a "leave" vote ?!

    Own a big stake in Easyjet!

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    He was wrong to go around shouting 'Save the Pound'. He helped debase the argument on Europe because he had nothing to offer the public on anything the public cared about in 2001.

    He was only wrong because he believed Labour's manifesto promise to join the Euro. In retrospect a silly mistake, of course, but one easily made at the time.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,228
    Any market reaction to MORI?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    midwinter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quick question for the Conservative Remainers. Put yourself forward a week after Britain has decided for better or worse to vote "Brexit".

    If you were armed with this foresight back in 2015 (Of course noone is - but that isn't the question), would you have prefferred a Labour lead Ed Miliband Gov't back in May 2015.

    Genuine question.

    No, another coalition would have kept the maniacs in their caves.

    Agreed.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,673

    Pulpstar said:

    Quick question for the Conservative Remainers. Put yourself forward a week after Britain has decided for better or worse to vote "Brexit".

    If you were armed with this foresight back in 2015 (Of course noone is - but that isn't the question), would you have prefferred a Labour lead Ed Miliband Gov't back in May 2015.

    Genuine question.

    No. This referendum had to happen sometime.
    Yes, I agree with you there. This whole EU-bogeyman thing has been deeply unhealthy. It's been a morbid national obsession for too long. The social consequences will probably be dire, but there will be psychological benefits for many Leavers: they can finally have some peace.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    SeanT said:

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    The moral course is to be the canary in the coalmine. Summon up all your powers of rhetoric to convince your fellow Leavers that we'd should embrace a European future. :)
    Nothing wrong with a European Future - just not an EU one.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,735
    Mr. T, overall I agree leaving is best.

    And if you think it's better for your kids, that's perhaps how you should vote.

    Consider whether you want us to leave. If you do, vote that way. Short term pain for long term gain is rational. The reverse is irrational, and cowardly.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:



    They had a referendum on it a couple of years ago which the SVP won very narrowly. The EU has continued as normal with Switzerland's single market status while they have introduced restrictions on EU migrants. The EU are just waiting for this referendum to be over before they use the Lichtenstein solution and just let the emergency brake continue indefinitely or until migration pressures reduce to a level where Switzerland decided to rescind it.

    What restrictions have they introduced? My understanding is that they have actually done very little out of concern for putting access to the single market at risk.

    It's complicated. Liechtenstein and Iceland are in the EEA; Switzerland isn't in the EEA but has a separate bilateral arrangement.

    Liechtenstein negotiated a partial opt out of the key EEA freedom of movement principle, where EEA citizens are allowed to work in the principality but (mostly) not to live there. As the liveable, non-mountainous area of Liechtenstein is about the size of the postage stamps they flog, that's understandable. It was supposed to be a temporary arrangement but seems to have become permanent, as these things do.

    Switzerland held a referendum in 2014 to restrict EU immigration into the country in contravention of the bilateral agreements. This move has been rejected by the EU, but is supposed to come in unilaterally next year, per the referendum question. It's an ongoing dispute.

    Iceland pulled the emergency brake on freedom of movement - the article in the EEA treaty that Max refers to - in 2008 along with capital controls etc. In principle this is still a temporary measure.
    I think this highlights the difficulty the UK has with the EU. The EU seems to adopt and apply these treaty commitments as they please and no one minds. The UK regards the treaty commitments as important and applies them even if they're not in the UK's best interest.

    This could also be interpreted as the UK believing in the rule of law.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    I agree with Nicola

    @NicolaSturgeon: This is disgusting. https://t.co/eHHI6KrWvp
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    To forge both on a personal level (with your friends, family, neighbourhood) and help forge in the national/political sphere a bright future for Britain outside the EU. Having left the EU we may all find some of those we know who need assistance in the brave new world. But I think we both believe that it will all be worth it in the end.

    Leave is the harder choice, with greater risks (remaining has risk too though of course). But the rewards are potentially greater too. A global-minded independent Britain really can achieve much, but it will have to be worked for.

    Remaining is safer in the short term and suits those who are comfortable in life now.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    Your friends are right to be worried. I would be very concerned were I not financially secure. But you must vote with your conscience. To thine own self be true.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,280

    Cyclefree said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Golly, Carney has gone off the deep end according to Sky.

    I think those Leaver MPs who think it is clever to undermine the Governor of the Bank of England when we will need him to help calm the markets in the event of a Leave vote need their heads examining. Britons are entitled to vote Leave but the BoE has a job to do to ensure that the immediate consequences are handled calmly and with as little disruption as possible. Pissing off the people charged with that job is a sign of political immaturity and seriously makes me wonder whether I would wish to entrust my country to people with such poor judgment, frankly.

    Have you decided who you are voting for?
    No - not yet. I will post my vote before setting off for Dover in my car. So I have until Sunday evening.

    I am finding this the most difficult head/heart decision, to be perfectly frank. I am a European. English is not my mother tongue. My extended family lives in at least 5 Continental countries. I would like to be a Remain because I think that the ideal of a co-operative Europe is a good one. But my experience of working in Brussels and dealing with innumerable Directives has made me very disillusioned. It has gone off the rails and a proper renegotiation should have been a good chance to move it in a better direction for the sake of a lot of countries in Europe, not just Britain. So I am reasonably clear in my own mind about what I think about the EU and about what I would like the EU and Britain in the EU to be.

    It is the consequences for British politics which are troubling me.

    Perhaps it's me but I heard Osborne on the radio yesterday and it didn't incite the reaction which it seems to have in others. If the facts change as a result of a vote of course a Chancellor has to look at his budget again. That seems to me to be no more than a statement of the obvious. But a period of prolonged political uncertainty with all sorts of people in charge who lack gravitas and judgment and thought is worrying. The "push" factor may be clear. The "pull" factor much less so. Indeed some of the Leave leaders or leave MPs seem to be doing their best to push people away from them. Too much of this seems to me to be animated by some private vendetta against Cameron and Osborne, about which I don't give a toss, frankly.

    How are those in government going to manage a fractured party and lead - in a "steady under fire" sort of way - a fractured country with lots of people having vented and having, possibly, hopelessly overoptimistic expectations?

    At this precise moment I'm rather wishing that both sides could lose.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Have these people not heard of internet betting?
    Isn't that £35:00 with a nought added for a laugh???
    If leave win - some high rollers are going to get badly burnt. I would have thought Farage would have put some money on Leave though - if only for the publicity.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited June 2016
    timmo said:

    Doesn't the BoE announce its interest rate decision today. The devil in me says that it will raise because of mkt uncertainty with a promise to cut if we stay in the EU which will according to Carney bring the economy back to the status quo.
    Far fetched I know but a lot of what has been going on has been far fetched.

    Expect the BoE Governor to issue dire warnings about Brexit.

    Note to Editors: Mark Carney is Canadian.
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398
    SeanT said:

    ANECDOTE THINGY ALERT

    My agent, who was very much on the fence, and possibly swinging to LEAVE, has plumped for REMAiN on the grounds that her husband will go bust with LEAVE and she'll "have to live in a semi in Watford"

    I reckon the Worried Professionals will still swing this for REMAIN.

    There's something in that. Unlike Sean I back Remain and have done a little canvassing. Several people said even though emotionally they were with Leave because of their job they'll be voting Remain. That wallet factor together with last minute heebie jeebies about plunging into the unknowable will provide a very narrow Remain victory (In line with my PB comp punt lol)
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    We must also account for the large numbers who voted some time ago by post. I received my form in the last week of May.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    I think that they will find that their nightmares are just that ......nightmares, after Brexit.

    Vote Leave.
    From a man who openly says that tradition and "sovereignty" are more important to him than the economy.

    Do your own research.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The problem with that hypothesis is that it would be reasonable to see Remain doing better against Leave in the anonymity of the internet.

    As for the things people hear, everyone is pressured by the circle they mix in. In some places Leave will be taboo; in others, it will be Remain.

    My other half told me a story yesterday though about a presentation she was appointed to deliver for the training company she works for. She arrived to find her audience discussing Brexit. They were all young lads on probation. No comment on vote intention, but it's notable who is talking about this piece of politics.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    If they vote rationally to remain (in accordance with what is best for them) then you should vote in accordance with what you think is best for you (and your country). If there really are 'lots' of them then they will win (that's democracy) and you will have the comfort of knowing that you voted in accordance with your own careful weighing of the situation.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    Vote to leave and buy up London property on the cheap.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The problem with that hypothesis is that it would be reasonable to see Remain doing better against Leave in the anonymity of the internet.

    As for the things people hear, everyone is pressured by the circle they mix in. In some places Leave will be taboo; in others, it will be Remain.

    My other half told me a story yesterday though about a presentation she was appointed to deliver for the training company she works for. She arrived to find her audience discussing Brexit. They were all young lads on probation. No comment on vote intention, but it's notable who is talking about this piece of politics.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    Scott_P said:

    I agree with Nicola

    @NicolaSturgeon: This is disgusting. https://t.co/eHHI6KrWvp

    Yep, racism pure and simple. And the Europeans we are going to have to do a deal with are seeing all this just as we are. And are reading the tabloid headlines just as we are.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,440
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Golly, Carney has gone off the deep end according to Sky.

    I think those Leaver MPs who think it is clever to undermine the Governor of the Bank of England when we will need him to help calm the markets in the event of a Leave vote need their heads examining. Britons are entitled to vote Leave but the BoE has a job to do to ensure that the immediate consequences are handled calmly and with as little disruption as possible. Pissing off the people charged with that job is a sign of political immaturity and seriously makes me wonder whether I would wish to entrust my country to people with such poor judgment, frankly.

    Have you decided who you are voting for?
    No - not yet. I will post my vote before setting off for Dover in my car. So I have until Sunday evening.

    I am finding this the most difficult head/heart decision, to be perfectly frank. I am a European. English is not my mother tongue. My extended family lives in at least 5 Continental countries. I would like to be a Remain because I think that the ideal of a co-operative Europe is a good one. But my experience of working in Brussels and dealing with innumerable Directives has made me very disillusioned. It has gone off the rails and a proper renegotiation should have been a good chance to move it in a better direction for the sake of a lot of countries in Europe, not just Britain. So I am reasonably clear in my own mind about what I think about the EU and about what I would like the EU and Britain in the EU to be.

    It is the consequences for British politics which are troubling me.

    Perhaps it's me but I heard Osborne on the radio yesterday and it didn't incite the reaction which it seems to have in others. If the facts change as a result of a vote of course a Chancellor has to look at his budget again. That seems to me to be no more than a statement of the obvious. But a period of prolonged political uncertainty with all sorts of people in charge who lack gravitas and judgment and thought is worrying. The "push" factor may be clear. The "pull" factor much less so. Indeed some of the Leave leaders or leave MPs seem to be doing their best to push people away from them. Too much of this seems to me to be animated by some private vendetta against Cameron and Osborne, about which I don't give a toss, frankly.

    How are those in government going to manage a fractured party and lead - in a "steady under fire" sort of way - a fractured country with lots of people having vented and having, possibly, hopelessly overoptimistic expectations?

    At this precise moment I'm rather wishing that both sides could lose.
    I sympathise
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    FF43 said:

    Pauly said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.

    See the UKIP poster...

    QED
    I think the photo on the UKIP poster is a column of Syrian refugees, which isn't actually a problem that will be addressed by leaving the EU.

    But who needs logic?
    They won't be able to come here on mass if Germany or another country decides to give them EU passports Willy nilly.
    I thought about that. But a) That possible situation is down the line - the immediate problem is of refugees and b) They would be German by that point. I don't think Leave are proposing an immigration policy based on racial stereotyping.

    But, heck, that poster isn't there to stimulate reasoned discussion. It's there to play on base fears.
    Your first point a) is dangerous short-term-ism and b) the poster is clearly referring to the fact that if we vote remain the fact that they're German is irrelevant because they can all come here.

    They wouldn't come into Britain as a line of refugees. They might come in as individuals and settled German citizens. Even after Brexit it is going to be difficult to discriminate between Germans of different racial backgrounds.

    But as I say that poster isn't there for rational discussion.

    I don't necessarily think that they'd come as 'settled' German citizens. Many boat people were in refugee camps for years upon years before moving on. Admittedly, they were often detained in camps against their will and unable to set down roots. But 5 years is not a particularly long period of time, and most people take longer to truly settle.

    But in general, I agree with your point. At that stage is will be a problem of a different nature.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,307
    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    Grow some?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    Let's vote Leave - and see what they come up with then....
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,797
    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    A post Brexit government may do everything it can to protect the city and therefore London house prices. Even if that means keeping free movement as part of the deal. Things could get very messy.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,575
    Regardless of the result, I think the winners and losers in the reputation market are:

    Big losers - Cameron and Osborne (and Darling but that doesn't matter) who have totally lost whatever integrity they possessed.

    Winners - May and Corbyn. They have kept their integrity. And Boris - who never had any.

    "Project Fear" tactics against Corbyn will be less effective in future. Labour have reasonable chance of forming a minority government with support from the SNP at the next election.

    The Tory leadership is between Boris and Theresa.

    LibDems are completely under the radar (not intentionally I'm sure) and, relatively speaking, will probably gain from this. It is already showing in local results and beginning to appear in national polls. A natural home for some remainers?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Woe. woe and thrice woe! Crikey, the level of project fear on this site is reaching the ridiculous. Mr. Observer, seems to think that there is going to be some sort of fascist coup d'etat next week and many others appear to think that the economy will collapse the week after.

    A few deep breaths all round, plus for the most affected bathing the temples in eau de Cologne, might be a good idea. Even if, and it is still a big if, the Uk votes to Leave what is, supposedly, a trading arrangement next week nothing will actually change, it will take years probably at least a decade for the effects to become evident (and in which time so many events will have occurred that it will be for historians to argue over not politicians).
  • Cyclefree - The problem with that is the fractured party scenario will likely be just as bad if not worse with a narrow win for remain
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    There is no dilemma. The moral course of action is to vote with your beliefs. There is a circle of Hell reserved for those who voted for one thing but believed in another.

    This is a secret ballot after all
  • weejonnie said:

    Have these people not heard of internet betting?
    Isn't that £35:00 with a nought added for a laugh???
    If leave win - some high rollers are going to get badly burnt. I would have thought Farage would have put some money on Leave though - if only for the publicity.
    I'm sure I saw a picture of Farage putting a grand on Leave a week or so ago.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.

    Bear in mind that the pounds you lose if Leave wins will be worth substantially less than the pounds you win if Leave loses.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Barnesian said:


    LibDems are completely under the radar (not intentionally I'm sure) and, relatively speaking, will probably gain from this. It is already showing in local results and beginning to appear in national polls. A natural home for some remainers?

    They have been completely unable to exploit anything since the election, I doubt they will exploit this.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Scott_P said:

    I agree with Nicola

    @NicolaSturgeon: This is disgusting. https://t.co/eHHI6KrWvp

    Now that's a surprise - I think I'll have a heart attack with that surprise.

    Of course, leave may be overplaying their hand - I would have thought 'steady as she goes' would be a more effective tactic.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,908

    weejonnie said:

    Have these people not heard of internet betting?
    Isn't that £35:00 with a nought added for a laugh???
    If leave win - some high rollers are going to get badly burnt. I would have thought Farage would have put some money on Leave though - if only for the publicity.
    I'm sure I saw a picture of Farage putting a grand on Leave a week or so ago.
    Vote Leave and Farage gets Lordship, becomes a Minister (for what?) and wins a grand. Bloody hell.
  • weejonnie said:

    Can someone tell me why there is £138,000 or so wanting to back Stay @ 1.69 on Betfair? Seems incongruous and very atypical.

    Possibly a bookie laying off?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Scott_P said:

    I agree with Nicola

    @NicolaSturgeon: This is disgusting. https://t.co/eHHI6KrWvp

    Yep, racism pure and simple. And the Europeans we are going to have to do a deal with are seeing all this just as we are. And are reading the tabloid headlines just as we are.

    They are Syrian refugees fleeing Daesh going from Slovenia to Croatia......nowt to do with the UK or the EU.......
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    felix said:

    I would not vote for a Tory party represented by the Leave campaign or their outriders on here. And that would be a first for me.

    Yup
    I saw talk of Farage rejoining the Tory Party/becoming a minister in a BoJo government.

    The day that happens, is the day I walk out of the Tory party.
    Same here. Farage has no place in the party, and I'm hoping that it was just another idiot "friend of Nigel" talking bullshit as they always do.
    Imagine if he brings Reckless with him...
    Stop depressing me you git.

    Brexit already means me having to spend about six weeks in France, Reckless and Farage joining the Tory party would be the cherry on the parfait.
    OK, I get it Momentum takes over the Labour Party and UKIP takes over the Tory Party. Big gap in the centre for 'One Nation Social Democrat' party.
    I shall be forming the Plantagenet Party
    Those guys really did know how to fight each other.
    The House of York resurgent, and we'll take back our rightful lands in France.

    We are currently fighting Russia over who gets Lille.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    I agree with Nicola

    @NicolaSturgeon: This is disgusting. https://t.co/eHHI6KrWvp

    It's a powerful poster, but I don't like it. I'm not sure it's quite Mein Kampf but it has sinister overtones.

    A mistake, and it might backfire. LEAVE needs to keep it clean in the last week.
    This is so sinister I had assumed it was a spoof.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    If you believe the Leave rhetoric, they are in no danger. The road ahead is paved with Gold.

    Would BoZo and Gove lie to you?

    Cast your Vote with Great British pride.

    Then change your phone number, just in case
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    I agree with Nicola

    @NicolaSturgeon: This is disgusting. https://t.co/eHHI6KrWvp

    You approved of the strong action by Frau Merkel to open her borders to Syrian refugees ?
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Barnesian said:

    The Tory leadership is between Boris and Theresa.

    If it came down to those two in the members' leadership vote, I'm at the moment not sure who I'd vote for.

    If we Leave then it will be a judgement on how they react and how they contribute to the post-Brexit government and negotiations.

    If we Remain, not sure.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    Pure logic is that the EU is the best of potential options, especially given that we are already in it.

    The likely alternatives will be less and are uncertain. We don't know if we will get the EEA or if it will be qualified to our disfavour (eg no Financial Passport). We should get some kind of Free Trade Arrangment but we don't know yet whether it will be somewhat unfavourable to us or completely one-sided.

    Then factor in the disruption and political chaos which will feed into the economy and constitutional and the EU should be a slam-dunk. On the logic.

    But it isn't all logic. There is people's identity, fed-upness and sod-themness...
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    weejonnie said:

    Have these people not heard of internet betting?
    Isn't that £35:00 with a nought added for a laugh???
    If leave win - some high rollers are going to get badly burnt. I would have thought Farage would have put some money on Leave though - if only for the publicity.
    I'm sure I saw a picture of Farage putting a grand on Leave a week or so ago.
    He did, and he's obviously a mug punter because he took it at crap odds.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    Scott_P said:

    I agree with Nicola

    @NicolaSturgeon: This is disgusting. https://t.co/eHHI6KrWvp

    Yep, racism pure and simple. And the Europeans we are going to have to do a deal with are seeing all this just as we are. And are reading the tabloid headlines just as we are.

    I can't believe that won't have any effect on peoples voting. Surely a step too far for most decent people.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    What you do has to be for your own conscience. My view is that we're already overdue a correction, and not just in the UK. The levels of global indebtedness are breathtaking.

    The European economies are, by and large, basket cases where we're reduced to debating which is the least worst off, with the probably exception of Germany (and even Germany isn't immune to the likely issues arising in China and elsewhere).

    Rather than waffle on, to me it's a choice between a recession soon and a recession next year. Brexit might help the EZ break its internal deadlocks and decisively break for full on integration. Hence, while Brexit might be bad for Europe, it might also prove to be a very practical way of breaking the logjam (c.f. the Telegraph article from the Euro diplomat).

    You're not necessarily bringing armageddon onto your friends. But do what you need to do to sleep soundly at night.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Scott_P said:

    I agree with Nicola

    @NicolaSturgeon: This is disgusting. https://t.co/eHHI6KrWvp


    Its even worse when you know the context - Syrian refugees fleeing Daesh......
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    SeanT said:

    ANECDOTE THINGY ALERT

    My agent, who was very much on the fence, and possibly swinging to LEAVE, has plumped for REMAiN on the grounds that her husband will go bust with LEAVE and she'll "have to live in a semi in Watford"

    I reckon the Worried Professionals will still swing this for REMAIN.

    "Have to live in a semi in Watford", the telltale Thornberry touch of Remain.
  • Stand by for salv Survation!
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840

    Let's vote Leave - and see what they come up with then....
    The "UKinEU settlement" he speaks of is merely the one Cameron managed to balls up back in February. It's nothing new. And of course, vacuous in content (other than the words, the endless Eurocratic words...).
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Blue_rog said:

    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    There is no dilemma. The moral course of action is to vote with your beliefs. There is a circle of Hell reserved for those who voted for one thing but believed in another.

    This is a secret ballot after all
    Isn't that just zealotry? The reason the Tories won in 2015 was that many people who were instinctively Labour/Liberal thought – rightly or wrongly – that a Cameron government was the best for the country and the economy. Voting is much more nuanced than you give it credit for.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,908

    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    Grow some?
    If you believe that there will be a recession and house price falls which will badly affect those that you care about (and millions you don't know), then you know what to do.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    Even if, and it is still a big if, the Uk votes to Leave what is, supposedly, a trading arrangement next week

    But you know damn well that it's not just a trading arrangement. Brexit would be the biggest shock to European politics since the fall of the Berlin wall. Anyone who says they can predict the consequences is just guessing, and predicting no consequences at all is wishful thinking.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,379
    edited June 2016
    MTimT said:

    FF43 said:

    Pauly said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.

    See the UKIP poster...

    QED
    I think the photo on the UKIP poster is a column of Syrian refugees, which isn't actually a problem that will be addressed by leaving the EU.

    But who needs logic?
    They won't be able to come here on mass if Germany or another country decides to give them EU passports Willy nilly.
    I thought about that. But a) That possible situation is down the line - the immediate problem is of refugees and b) They would be German by that point. I don't think Leave are proposing an immigration policy based on racial stereotyping.

    But, heck, that poster isn't there to stimulate reasoned discussion. It's there to play on base fears.
    Your first point a) is dangerous short-term-ism and b) the poster is clearly referring to the fact that if we vote remain the fact that they're German is irrelevant because they can all come here.
    They wouldn't come into Britain as a line of refugees. They might come in as individuals and settled German citizens. Even after Brexit it is going to be difficult to discriminate between Germans of different racial backgrounds.

    But as I say that poster isn't there for rational discussion.

    I don't necessarily think that they'd come as 'settled' German citizens. Many boat people were in refugee camps for years upon years before moving on. Admittedly, they were often detained in camps against their will and unable to set down roots. But 5 years is not a particularly long period of time, and most people take longer to truly settle.

    But in general, I agree with your point. At that stage is will be a problem of a different nature.

    --------------------

    It takes 8* years to become a German citizen, and then only if you fulfil other conditions such as having no criminal record and learning the language. You also have to give up your former citizenship.

    *This may be reduced to 6 years where applicants have shown exceptional German language ability or have contributed substantially to the community.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240
    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    Vote to leave and buy up London property on the cheap.
    Ha, ha, ha!
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    Barnesian said:

    The Tory leadership is between Boris and Theresa.

    If it came down to those two in the members' leadership vote, I'm at the moment not sure who I'd vote for.

    If we Leave then it will be a judgement on how they react and how they contribute to the post-Brexit government and negotiations.

    If we Remain, not sure.
    I can't see the membership voting for the man who wielded the knife (which is how it will be perceived), much more likely to be May. It was the same with Hestletine (although I appreciate the membership didn't get a vote then).
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    Grow some?

    The brave option for him is to vote against his instincts. He can then say he has done it for the greater good, rather than his own urges.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Blue_rog said:

    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    There is no dilemma. The moral course of action is to vote with your beliefs. There is a circle of Hell reserved for those who voted for one thing but believed in another.

    This is a secret ballot after all
    I suspect a lot of people are worried because they are morally invested in their side and fear they will not win. Some people will succumb to scaremongering and expect the worst, but I am optimistic that our long term future is better off out. Events like this are not just about tomorrow's paypacket but are about giving hope to future generations. People across Europe are suffering financial ruin because of EU policies, let's not go down that route.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,797
    I have to say I love this in a mixed feelings sort of way.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ufekKXI9vU
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    It's a powerful poster, but I don't like it. I'm not sure it's quite Mein Kampf but it has sinister overtones.

    A mistake, and it might backfire. LEAVE needs to keep it clean in the last week.

    It will be interesting to see the Vote leave reaction.

    Will they endorse it? Will they renounce it?
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840

    Scott_P said:

    I agree with Nicola

    @NicolaSturgeon: This is disgusting. https://t.co/eHHI6KrWvp

    Yep, racism pure and simple. And the Europeans we are going to have to do a deal with are seeing all this just as we are. And are reading the tabloid headlines just as we are.

    Also - unnecessary (in that those who will appreciate the poster will be voting to Leave anyway) and harmful (in that many centrist undecided voters will probably go towards Remain having seen it)... I do wish Farage would just sit tight for this last week and say and do nothing.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Scott_P said:

    I agree with Nicola

    @NicolaSturgeon: This is disgusting. https://t.co/eHHI6KrWvp

    Yep, racism pure and simple. And the Europeans we are going to have to do a deal with are seeing all this just as we are. And are reading the tabloid headlines just as we are.

    They are Syrian refugees fleeing Daesh going from Slovenia to Croatia......nowt to do with the UK or the EU.......
    They are not fleeing Daesh.

    They are moving from one safe EU country to another safe EU country on their way to Germany as economic migrants.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    SeanT said:

    ANECDOTE THINGY ALERT

    My agent, who was very much on the fence, and possibly swinging to LEAVE, has plumped for REMAiN on the grounds that her husband will go bust with LEAVE and she'll "have to live in a semi in Watford"

    I reckon the Worried Professionals will still swing this for REMAIN.

    "Have to live in a semi in Watford", the telltale Thornberry touch of Remain.
    Aren't professionals mainly Remainers anyway? However we do not know what her husband does. If he has major contracts with EU politicians then it is quite likely he would go bust. If he's a self-employed plumber then it would seem unlikely.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    Vote Leave. There won't be a recession because we are not going to suddenly pull out, on the 24th it will be gradual. You havetold us you are surrounded by people who are strongly lefty upper middle class remainers and haven't really had a chance to hear from avreage people voting Leave. Please go canvassing in a wwc area to find out why people are voting Leave, it will open ur eyes that this is more than just immigration. Go to Vote leave website, Events and put in London and events will come up it will take 2 hours of your day.
    I used to be one of those annoying door to door chuggers and it kinda widens ur views, it will give u ideas for writing aswell.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,440
    edited June 2016
    Survation

    Leave 52

    Remain 48

    Remain 42(-2)
    Leave 45(+7)
    DK 13(-5)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    I agree with Nicola

    @NicolaSturgeon: This is disgusting. https://t.co/eHHI6KrWvp

    You approved of the strong action by Frau Merkel to open her borders to Syrian refugees ?
    How do Gove, Hannan etc manage to be enthusiastic about the prospect of campaigning alongside this stuff?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    Grow a pair, and throw off your mental chains.

    Freedom awaits.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772

    Survation

    Leave 52

    Remain 48

    what the movement?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 2 mins2 minutes ago

    EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 42% (-2)
    Leave: 45% (+7)
    (via Survation, phone / 15 Jun)
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    Jobabob said:

    Blue_rog said:

    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    There is no dilemma. The moral course of action is to vote with your beliefs. There is a circle of Hell reserved for those who voted for one thing but believed in another.

    This is a secret ballot after all
    Isn't that just zealotry? The reason the Tories won in 2015 was that many people who were instinctively Labour/Liberal thought – rightly or wrongly – that a Cameron government was the best for the country and the economy. Voting is much more nuanced than you give it credit for.
    I agree. I wavered all the way to the polling booth. My natural liberalism vs a feeling that EdM would screw things up. It was a tough choice. For me, this vote isn't: I'm certain Leave.

    What's so very sad to me about this EU ref is that Cameron could have struck a proper deal and then opened a serious, mature, debate. He has vanished in my estimation.

  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    Pure logic is that the EU is the best of potential options, especially given that we are already in it.

    The likely alternatives will be less and are uncertain. We don't know if we will get the EEA or if it will be qualified to our disfavour (eg no Financial Passport). We should get some kind of Free Trade Arrangment but we don't know yet whether it will be somewhat unfavourable to us or completely one-sided.

    Then factor in the disruption and political chaos which will feed into the economy and constitutional and the EU should be a slam-dunk. On the logic.

    But it isn't all logic. There is people's identity, fed-upness and sod-themness...
    There's a link in your 'logic' that doesn't quite work. If the alternative is uncertain then why is it less? If the future is uncertain then, by pure logic, you can't assert that it will be better or worse. You can 'believe' or 'forecast/guess' what might happen but that isn't the same thing as 'logic'.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,344
    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    You view their fears in the same way as you would if they were worrying about giving their kids a vaccination. Their concerns are irrational and founded upon the desire of one side to frighten them into a particular response. It is exactly the same as if someone was to say they were voting Leave because they were terrified of being gang raped by 75 million Turks. For their own good you vote as you think best for the country and your family rather than joining them in their irrational fears.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,440
    edited June 2016
    The Survation poll was carried out between 3pm and 9pm yesterday, so covered the Osborne budget annoucement
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630

    Scott_P said:

    I agree with Nicola

    @NicolaSturgeon: This is disgusting. https://t.co/eHHI6KrWvp

    Yep, racism pure and simple. And the Europeans we are going to have to do a deal with are seeing all this just as we are. And are reading the tabloid headlines just as we are.

    They are Syrian refugees fleeing Daesh going from Slovenia to Croatia......nowt to do with the UK or the EU.......

    I know. But the tone is just a ratchet up from the swarthy Turks are coming to get us. The Europeans Boris, Gove and co will be negotiating with will know that at least part of the reason they are there is because they pandered to racism and xenophobia. Whatever the Leave leadership might say, that is the case. They know that Turkey is nowhere close to joining the EU.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162
    MTimT said:

    Scott_P said:

    felix said:

    I would not vote for a Tory party represented by the Leave campaign or their outriders on here. And that would be a first for me.

    Yup
    Out of interest, who would you vote for in that circumstance? Sounds like your only option is abstain.
    I'd vote Labour if they elected a moderate leader - otherwise I'd not vote.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,688
    .
    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    Grow some?

    The brave option for him is to vote against his instincts. He can then say he has done it for the greater good, rather than his own urges.
    The strategic virtue-signaller.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,575
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    Philosophers might provide moral guidance.

    Bentham would vote Remain - greatest good of the greatest number - not personal interest or gratification.

    Kant would vote Remain. Categorical imperative. He also wrote, just after the French Revolution, "The effects which an upheaval in any state [as a result of war with another state] produces upon all the others in our continent, where all are so closely linked by trade, are so perceptible that these other states are forced by their own insecurity to offer themselves as arbiters, albeit without legal authority, so that they indirectly prepare the way for a great political body of the future, without precedence in the past. Although this political body exists for the present only in the roughest of outlines, it nonetheless seems as if a feeling is beginning to stir in all its members, each of which has an interest in maintaining the whole. And this encourages the hope that, after many revolutions, the highest purpose of nature, a universal cosmopolitan existence, will at last be realized as the matrix within which all the original capacities of the human race may develop." Very prescient.

    Rawlings would be a Remainer. Wish for a state of the world in which you do not know your position in it rather than based on your existing position.

    I think, ethically, Remain has it. Remain has it.

    Edit: And another moral philosopher said "Love thy neighbour as thyself."
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    I agree with Nicola

    @NicolaSturgeon: This is disgusting. https://t.co/eHHI6KrWvp

    It's a powerful poster, but I don't like it. I'm not sure it's quite Mein Kampf but it has sinister overtones.

    A mistake, and it might backfire. LEAVE needs to keep it clean in the last week.
    This is so sinister I had assumed it was a spoof.
    The frustrating thing is that Leave have taken the lead by pushing Farage to one side and not doing this kind of crap. If Farage really does push himself to the fore in the next week with this kind of horribleness he could undo much of the good work Vote Leave have done and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited June 2016
    @Rupert Myers Funny how the prominent white dude gets blocked out of the poster. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClET25TWMAAGXfm.jpg:large
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Jobabob said:

    weejonnie said:

    Have these people not heard of internet betting?
    Isn't that £35:00 with a nought added for a laugh???
    If leave win - some high rollers are going to get badly burnt. I would have thought Farage would have put some money on Leave though - if only for the publicity.
    I'm sure I saw a picture of Farage putting a grand on Leave a week or so ago.
    He did, and he's obviously a mug punter because he took it at crap odds.
    5/2 IIRC - anyone offering that now? 7/5 is best (At Ladbrokes - presumably that £35K bet has made them a bit skitter)
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    I suspect that many Sean and Sean's agent lady types would have ideally liked a free pass – i.e. being able to vote Leave knowing Remain were well ahead. Sadly that is not the case and we need them. The government must do all it can to bring some of these votes over in the final days.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994
    More good news for Leave. This might actually happen.

    Only 13 hours to the next poll...
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    RodCrosby said:

    SeanT said:

    Here's a moral dilemma, perhaps pb-ers can help me

    I am a convinced LEAVER. I have very carefully weighed everything, and have - with great reluctance, and some trepidation - decided that OUT is best for my country, long term. Better for my kids.

    I really really wanted Cameron to deliver some proper reform, something close to his Bloomberg aspirations, but he didn't. He came nowhere near. He failed, miserably.

    That said, I have lots of friends who are now panicking, some of them are outright terrified. People poorer than me, who won't be able to endure recession or house price falls, the way I can. People worried their jobs will go.

    These are people I love. I love my friends. I am about to do something that will very possibly harm them.

    What do I do? What is the moral course of action?

    Grow a pair, and throw off your mental chains.

    Freedom awaits.
    Ha! I think that post should say it all...
This discussion has been closed.