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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori phone poll sees a 10% swing to Leave as Leave take a 6% lead
David Cameron is finding EU Can’t Always Get What You Want. He must be feeling like Gonville Bromhead, as he’s told the pollsters report Brextieers….millions of them. What this poll finds is that the focus on immigration and Turkey is working for Leave whilst the Remain attack lines on the economy aren’t working.
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Not just the tabloids that do nasty shit....
http://order-order.com/2016/06/16/how-remainers-stitched-up-goves-elderly-father/
http://heatst.com/uk/bbc-has-secured-2-7-million-in-secret-eu-funds-since-2014/
Vote Leave so that nothing changes... Not really their core message.
Trying not to get too hopeful but we just might pull this off.
James Forsyth @JGForsyth
Remain’s problem in this referendum dates back to the renegotiation and the EU’s failure to engage on free movement http://bit.ly/21nXpO1
Remain was always going to lose. Immigration control is just too potent a message to fight against. But there are going to be a huge number of very disillusioned, beaten up ordinary punters that will be absolutely furious at what is about to actually transpire.
Leave has promised no tax cuts, extra spending, cheaper housing and substantially lower immigration. Voters are not going to wait ten years for that. They are not going to wait five. They are very quickly going to decide that they were lied to. And with good reason. They were lied to.
Just how many votes do you think this is going to deliver ?
It is no more sensible a mantra here than it was for that Family Fortunes contestant all those years ago.
There remains a danger that polls are herding.
When the Leave lead is 2%, then it is significant.
I have it barely a quarter of that.
Brexit voters won’t blame themselves. Voters never do. They will blame the politicians and pundits who made them look like fools. Common sense will turn into communal rage as those who have accused every-one else of lying will be revealed as the greatest liars of all.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/why-the-leave-campaign-should-pray-they-dont-win/
I've been reading the LabourLeave's pamphlet. It's interesting, if a little repetitive.
For those interested in how they see the existential threat to the Labour party itself, Frank Field and Jasper Miles are particularly persuasive. If I were a Labour grandee, I would be horrified that my party were selling Remain. I suppose it's the nature of any ancien regime to be oblivious to the risks they're running.
As a child of the '60s there was also the thrill of reading a full-blooded retro piece from ASLEF (Mick Whelan), whose primary concern is the Fourth Railway Package (which, as he positions it, would make re-nationalisation of the railways impossible).
Southam's identified that many (for some value of 'many') people who vote for Brexit are going to be incredibly pissed off when immigration doesn't fall off a cliff.
Rather than talk about the economy (which will do whatever it does), what do we think will happen in 2020? How will that play out in the next GE, given we'll have been ~ two years post-EU by then?
RochdalePioneers said:
On Facebook messenger with a comrade discussing the latest poll and what in means.
I think we are in the dying weeks of the final ever majority government that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will ever have. What do you think...?
I can see that. Repeal the fixed term act, allow for a few strange temporary alliances and, in parallel, determine a decent PR voting platform. Introduce this and we all move on - PR^2 anyone?
17k matched on Betfair for it, and 31m matched on the EURef.
Do the Pirates have a candidate there?
My anecdote from last night was that friends on Fb who don't do politics have started to realise the inevitable. This has widened today - mostly AB bankers suggesting financial implications, followed by some insult to Leavers. Utterly hilarious.
"It makes me think that David Cameron has one last card to play if Leave are still ahead in the final 48 hours before the poll: he can announce to the nation a few days before the referendum vote that after June 23rd, regardless of outcome, he will step down as prime minister."
http://nicktyrone.com/camerons-last-ditch-move-keep-us-europe/
He is mainly going to concentrate on foreign policy apparently because the economic argument has spectacularly failed to move votes.
@angelaeagle: I don't support FIFA https://t.co/Znaq3Q9Rwl
Leave have promised higher wages, more jobs, lower housing costs, more public spending, much lower immigration.
They now have to deliver.
UKIP could have a strong showing in view of the referendum.
We have been through a lot of this in Scotland already. People who switch don't always say, "I have changed my mind". They see their switch to Yes/Leave as a journey - "I didn't leave Labour/the Conservatives. They left me." The betrayal has already happened and it wasn't by the group they have just joined. Any bad things will be assigned to the people they think betrayed them.
There is a lot of psychology in this.
A lot more ordinary voters will have heard about FIFA and its scandals than any other, I suspect.
If we manage to actually pull a Cameron it'll be 1.4 million. So the range is around 3.2 million. A mere bagatelle, that's hardly three Birmingham's worth. If fact, we should adopt that as our measure of immigration, Birminghams per decade, the Brummigen. Any seconders?
But of course he wasn't able to complete the logical argument that England* would be better off outside FIFA...
*Other Home Nations are available.
A week is a long time in politics, and all that.
@TSE: sent you an email.
She also thinks South Yorkshire Police and the BBC have got questions to answer...
Most of the ex-Cameron fans are shaking their heads more in sorrow than in anger. For me, it's a bit like discovering your favourite child is being done for shoplifting. All that promise, all that reputation, squandered for a mess of EU pottage.
It would be a daft idea, and it wouldn't achieve anything.
DO NOT BACK BREXIT IN SCOTLAND OFF THE BACK OF THAT ARTICLE.
People are very good at extrapolating that what is good for them personally is good for everyone else too.