politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori phone poll sees a 10% swing to Leave as Leave ta
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Effective but disgusting. Surely the ends don't always justify the means. Funny isn't it that the closer we get to next Thursday that a lot of Leaves real motivation becomes apparent as the smoke and mirrors fade away. It's not attractive. Looks like a march past.Pong said:
That's a horrible poster.TheScreamingEagles said:and this is why
https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/743382955003940864
Horribly effective I fear.0 -
Osborne has borrowed more money than he said he would in most if not all financial years. So what is the difference?SouthamObserver said:
The EU money will get swallowed up immediately to cover the drop in tax receipts that will follow Brexit, as will the overseas aid money. The new Tory Leave government will have to borrow more to make good its promises. Let's see if that happens.chestnut said:
Put the £26bn or so that is EU fees and overseas aid back on the table and budget decisions could have been/can be very different.SouthamObserver said:
Indeed. It turns out that when Gove, Boris, Priti and co told us that there was no alternative to austerity they were telling lies. Whoever would have thought it?chestnut said:
A Labour manifesto by the look of it.SouthamObserver said:
The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable BrexitGIN1138 said:
Wishful thinking? Denial?rcs1000 said:I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.
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This is not about individuals but the long term future of this country. This will have an impact when Farage et al. are long dead and buried. Focus on the ball not the men.rottenborough said:Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick
Farage friend says he's been approached by Boris camp about job in Johnson govt & place in Lords to avoid fighting possible Thanet by-elect
This is truly terrifying. An out-an-out bigot will be in the British cabinet within weeks.
A huge realignment of politics is in the air if we vote Leave. Surely moderate Tories have to join forces with moderate Labour and stop this insanity?0 -
I blame the Turks.midwinter said:
Effective but disgusting. Surely the ends don't always justify the means. Funny isn't it that the closer we get to next Thursday that a lot of Leaves real motivation becomes apparent as the smoke and mirrors fade away. It's not attractive. Looks like a march past.Pong said:
That's a horrible poster.TheScreamingEagles said:and this is why
https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/743382955003940864
Horribly effective I fear.
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Given Crick's dislike for UKIP and given he hasn't named a source and given Channel 4 News is widely ignored when it comes to covering anything outside of the liberal bubble I'd say this is less terrifying and more 'completely unsubstantiated'rottenborough said:Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick
Farage friend says he's been approached by Boris camp about job in Johnson govt & place in Lords to avoid fighting possible Thanet by-elect
This is truly terrifying. An out-an-out bigot will be in the British cabinet within weeks.
A huge realignment of politics is in the air if we vote Leave. Surely moderate Tories have to join forces with moderate Labour and stop this insanity?0 -
One of the winners from the referendum discussions has been Jezza. Silence can be golden at times.
I was a union rep for fifteen years, and at the branch council one day, the full-time rep gave us all a bit of good advice. Never recommend to your members something they don't agree with. The Labour party and some of the unions have failed to heed that message.
Len is a political animal, but he is what he is. Some of the Labour MPs have only just listened to the non-metropolitan, less-middle class voters and it's come as a shock.
Anti-Tory feelings may be ingrained in them, so urging them to vote against their own wishes to support Cameron/Osborne is playing with fire.0 -
Maybe it will, maybe it won't.SouthamObserver said:
The EU money will get swallowed up immediately to cover the drop in tax receipts that will follow Brexit, as will the overseas aid money. The new Tory Leave government will have to borrow more to make good its promises. Let's see if that happens.chestnut said:
Put the £26bn or so that is EU fees and overseas aid back on the table and budget decisions could have been/can be very different.SouthamObserver said:
Indeed. It turns out that when Gove, Boris, Priti and co told us that there was no alternative to austerity they were telling lies. Whoever would have thought it?chestnut said:
A Labour manifesto by the look of it.SouthamObserver said:
The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable BrexitGIN1138 said:
Wishful thinking? Denial?rcs1000 said:I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.
However, the public mood is perhaps captured by these two poll findings;
81% of people felt there was 'some risk' in leaving;
61% of people were prepared to accept the chance of economic slowdown;
I think a great many people have reached the point of concluding that things can't go on like this.
Some of Britain's woes are not management issues; they are systemic ones.0 -
He could have exited with dignity instead of exiting through public ridicule. He will be mocked over this for the rest of his life. It will also be well deserved.SeanT said:
Osborne's Bizarre Blackmail Budget felt like the act of a man who knows his career is over, whatever he does.HenryGManson said:I feel even more convinced that Osborne won't last the year. Michael Howard who gave George Osborne his big political break has written 'yesterday saw the threat of an emergency budget - which was nothing more than ludicrous scaremongering born of desperation. No responsible Chancellor would seriously propose any such thing.'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/15/former-tory-leaders-and-chancellors-accuse-george-osborne-of-lud/?WT.mc_id=e_DM128713&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pol_New_EU&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pol_New_EU_2016_06_16&utm_campaign=DM128713 and
Allistair Heath descibes him as a kamikaze chancellor and concludes 'Mr Osborne no longer has any hope of leading a Tory party that he now despises, and is unlikely to remain as Chancellor for long even if Remain wins next week.' http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/15/it-will-all-end-in-tears-for-the-first-kamikaze-chancellor-in-hi/?WT.mc_id=e_DM128713&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pol_New_EU&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pol_New_EU_2016_06_16&utm_campaign=DM128713
In an excellent post for the new www.reaction.life website, Iain Martin agrees 'George Osborne will be very lucky to survive more than a few months as Chancellor...it is difficult to see in practical terms how the Chancellor can carry on for long having lost the confidence of such a large part of the Conservative parliamentary party.' Full article is here http://reaction.life/osborne-looks-like-toast/
I now think it's 4/6 or 8/13 that Osborne will go this year. The 7/4 with Hills that Osborne will cease to be Chancellor in 2016 is stand out value.
It was a dramatic final gesture so he can say Told you so when and if Brexit goes tits up, and a gesture that might just win the vote, if he gets very lucky, so he can say, in his retirement, that he was the Chancellor who secured the UK's place in the EU when it seemed the polls were turning against.
There is no downside for him, if you realise he is a man who knows he is condemned, whatever happens.
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For those who were asking earlier why Gibraltar is so in favour of REMAIN:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/16/the-rock-of-remain-why-gibraltar-is-rejecting-brexit0 -
Christ, thank God Harris is on, otherwise the entire collective IQ would barely be into three figures.williamglenn said:
Geldof and Mensch... Reith will be turning in his grave.Morris_Dancer said:QT panel could be feisty:
"David Dimbleby presents topical debate from York. On the panel are musician and Remain campaigner Bob Geldof, Labour's former home secretary Alan Johnson MP, Conservative education secretary Nicky Morgan MP, economist Ruth Lea, Leave campaigner and former Labour minister Tom Harris and the novelist and former Conservative MP Louise Mensch."0 -
@business: BOE Governor Mark Carney hits back after Leave campaign accuses him of opposing #Brexit https://t.co/EsHjmtWWtI https://t.co/uKa4G7jGuhgeoffw said:What has he said?
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Bernard Jenkin wearing his Public Accounts Committee chair hat has written to Carney to remind him not to make any more announcements/interventions.geoffw said:
Carney has sent him a three page !!!! letter and sounds very grumpy.
EDIT for @Morris_Dancer too0 -
They had a referendum on it a couple of years ago which the SVP won very narrowly. The EU has continued as normal with Switzerland's single market status while they have introduced restrictions on EU migrants. The EU are just waiting for this referendum to be over before they use the Lichtenstein solution and just let the emergency brake continue indefinitely or until migration pressures reduce to a level where Switzerland decided to rescind it.SouthamObserver said:
Have they? When did that happen?MaxPB said:
Switzerland have pulled their emergency brake, and much like Lichtenstein it looks like the EU will end up caving and just let it continue indefinitely.SouthamObserver said:
If we end up with a Swiss-style relationship with the EU then millions of voters who were promised substantially lower immigration are going to be furious.MaxPB said:
All of that is possible, but it depends on higher wages which is hard to achieve within a system which has an essentially unlimited poll of unskilled workers. Switzerland has proved you can have a society with low taxation, decent public services and high wages.SouthamObserver said:
The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable BrexitGIN1138 said:
Wishful thinking? Denial?rcs1000 said:I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.
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PM (radio programme) yesterday suggested that the BBC won't make a prediction before 5am depending on how close it is, but the 'official result' is due at 'Breakfast time'. Apparently votes are announced locally and then regionally before the national result from Manchester.RepublicanTory said:
When exactly will we know the outcome?Richard_Tyndall said:
I agree. I have been wanting this and working towards it for for 30 years and can hardly quite believe it might finally happen. I won't believe it until 24th.Pauly said:I'm trying not to BeLeave just in case I get crushingly disappointed on the 23rd.
Is there a link to the timetable of counting and reporting?0 -
Miss Plato, what's Carney said?0
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Farage in Cabinet in a UKIP, right of Tory government, surely means Corbyn will face a coup? Labour have to have an electable leader asap.0
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OK, I get it Momentum takes over the Labour Party and UKIP takes over the Tory Party. Big gap in the centre for 'One Nation Social Democrat' party.TheScreamingEagles said:
Stop depressing me you git.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Imagine if he brings Reckless with him...MaxPB said:
Same here. Farage has no place in the party, and I'm hoping that it was just another idiot "friend of Nigel" talking bullshit as they always do.TheScreamingEagles said:
I saw talk of Farage rejoining the Tory Party/becoming a minister in a BoJo government.Scott_P said:
Yupfelix said:I would not vote for a Tory party represented by the Leave campaign or their outriders on here. And that would be a first for me.
The day that happens, is the day I walk out of the Tory party.
Brexit already means me having to spend about six weeks in France, Reckless and Farage joining the Tory party would be the cherry on the parfait.0 -
Many who vote in GEs but rarely in other elections will vote in this referendum. Some who vote in some GEs but not others will too. A few will vote who hardly vote at all. But most people in the "underclass" won't vote. The "underclass" aren't a factor.Jobabob said:
Interesting article, Scott.Scott_P said:@JohnRentoul: If Ipsos MORI hadn't adjusted method for its final poll, it would have been Remain 50%, Leave 50% https://t.co/FsM7Eqsac5
Suggests Mori have uprated underclass etc (politically disengaged).0 -
Your first point a) is dangerous short-term-ism and b) the poster is clearly referring to the fact that if we vote remain the fact that they're German is irrelevant because they can all come here.FF43 said:
I thought about that. But a) That possible situation is down the line - the immediate problem is of refugees and b) They would be German by that point. I don't think Leave are proposing an immigration policy based on racial stereotyping.Pauly said:
They won't be able to come here on mass if Germany or another country decides to give them EU passports Willy nilly.FF43 said:
I think the photo on the UKIP poster is a column of Syrian refugees, which isn't actually a problem that will be addressed by leaving the EU.Scott_P said:
See the UKIP poster...FF43 said:Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.
QED
But who needs logic?
But, heck, that poster isn't there to stimulate reasoned discussion. It's there to play on base fears.0 -
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Everytime I looked at the emergency budget yesterday I wondered why it wasn't implemented last July....TCPoliticalBetting said:
Osborne has borrowed more money than he said he would in most if not all financial years. So what is the difference?SouthamObserver said:
The EU money will get swallowed up immediately to cover the drop in tax receipts that will follow Brexit, as will the overseas aid money. The new Tory Leave government will have to borrow more to make good its promises. Let's see if that happens.chestnut said:
Put the £26bn or so that is EU fees and overseas aid back on the table and budget decisions could have been/can be very different.SouthamObserver said:
Indeed. It turns out that when Gove, Boris, Priti and co told us that there was no alternative to austerity they were telling lies. Whoever would have thought it?chestnut said:
A Labour manifesto by the look of it.SouthamObserver said:
The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable BrexitGIN1138 said:
Wishful thinking? Denial?rcs1000 said:I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.
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Yeah right. If leave win he's damned whatever happens. this intervention changes nothing apart from changing the narrative back to where it should be....the economy.TCPoliticalBetting said:
He could have exited with dignity instead of exiting through public ridicule. He will be mocked over this for the rest of his life. It will also be well deserved.SeanT said:
Osborne's Bizarre Blackmail Budget felt like the act of a man who knows his career is over, whatever he does.HenryGManson said:I feel even more convinced that Osborne won't last the year. Michael Howard who gave George Osborne his big political break has written 'yesterday saw the threat of an emergency budget - which was nothing more than ludicrous scaremongering born of desperation. No responsible Chancellor would seriously propose any such thing.'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/15/former-tory-leaders-and-chancellors-accuse-george-osborne-of-lud/?WT.mc_id=e_DM128713&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pol_New_EU&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pol_New_EU_2016_06_16&utm_campaign=DM128713 and
Allistair Heath descibes him as a kamikaze chancellor and concludes 'Mr Osborne no longer has any hope of leading a Tory party that he now despises, and is unlikely to remain as Chancellor for long even if Remain wins next week.' http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/15/it-will-all-end-in-tears-for-the-first-kamikaze-chancellor-in-hi/?WT.mc_id=e_DM128713&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pol_New_EU&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pol_New_EU_2016_06_16&utm_campaign=DM128713
In an excellent post for the new www.reaction.life website, Iain Martin agrees 'George Osborne will be very lucky to survive more than a few months as Chancellor...it is difficult to see in practical terms how the Chancellor can carry on for long having lost the confidence of such a large part of the Conservative parliamentary party.' Full article is here http://reaction.life/osborne-looks-like-toast/
I now think it's 4/6 or 8/13 that Osborne will go this year. The 7/4 with Hills that Osborne will cease to be Chancellor in 2016 is stand out value.
It was a dramatic final gesture so he can say Told you so when and if Brexit goes tits up, and a gesture that might just win the vote, if he gets very lucky, so he can say, in his retirement, that he was the Chancellor who secured the UK's place in the EU when it seemed the polls were turning against.
There is no downside for him, if you realise he is a man who knows he is condemned, whatever happens.0 -
Bloody needs to be one. Pronto.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I shall be forming the Plantagenet Partylogical_song said:
OK, I get it Momentum takes over the Labour Party and UKIP takes over the Tory Party. Big gap in the centre for 'One Nation Social Democrat' party.TheScreamingEagles said:
Stop depressing me you git.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Imagine if he brings Reckless with him...MaxPB said:
Same here. Farage has no place in the party, and I'm hoping that it was just another idiot "friend of Nigel" talking bullshit as they always do.TheScreamingEagles said:
I saw talk of Farage rejoining the Tory Party/becoming a minister in a BoJo government.Scott_P said:
Yupfelix said:I would not vote for a Tory party represented by the Leave campaign or their outriders on here. And that would be a first for me.
The day that happens, is the day I walk out of the Tory party.
Brexit already means me having to spend about six weeks in France, Reckless and Farage joining the Tory party would be the cherry on the parfait.0 -
It's a very disingenuous reply suggesting that Jenkin was referring to Carney's personal view, when I think it was fairly clear he meant Carney's official view.PlatoSaid said:
Bernard Jenkin wearing his Public Accounts Committee chair hat has written to Carney to remind him not to make any more announcements/interventions.geoffw said:
Carney has sent him a three page !!!! letter and sounds very grumpy.0 -
What restrictions have they introduced? My understanding is that they have actually done very little out of concern for putting access to the single market at risk.MaxPB said:
They had a referendum on it a couple of years ago which the SVP won very narrowly. The EU has continued as normal with Switzerland's single market status while they have introduced restrictions on EU migrants. The EU are just waiting for this referendum to be over before they use the Lichtenstein solution and just let the emergency brake continue indefinitely or until migration pressures reduce to a level where Switzerland decided to rescind it.SouthamObserver said:
Have they? When did that happen?MaxPB said:
Switzerland have pulled their emergency brake, and much like Lichtenstein it looks like the EU will end up caving and just let it continue indefinitely.SouthamObserver said:
If we end up with a Swiss-style relationship with the EU then millions of voters who were promised substantially lower immigration are going to be furious.MaxPB said:
All of that is possible, but it depends on higher wages which is hard to achieve within a system which has an essentially unlimited poll of unskilled workers. Switzerland has proved you can have a society with low taxation, decent public services and high wages.SouthamObserver said:
The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable BrexitGIN1138 said:
Wishful thinking? Denial?rcs1000 said:I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.
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The poster is clearly playing on fears of all and any foreigners, particularly the middle-eastern looking ones pictured.Pauly said:
Your first point a) is dangerous short-term-ism and b) the poster is clearly referring to the fact that if we vote remain the fact that they're German is irrelevant because they can all come here.FF43 said:
I thought about that. But a) That possible situation is down the line - the immediate problem is of refugees and b) They would be German by that point. I don't think Leave are proposing an immigration policy based on racial stereotyping.Pauly said:
They won't be able to come here on mass if Germany or another country decides to give them EU passports Willy nilly.FF43 said:
I think the photo on the UKIP poster is a column of Syrian refugees, which isn't actually a problem that will be addressed by leaving the EU.Scott_P said:
See the UKIP poster...FF43 said:Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.
QED
But who needs logic?
But, heck, that poster isn't there to stimulate reasoned discussion. It's there to play on base fears.0 -
It's just going to be a restatement of the deal and a promise to pass it within a year.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The EU's attitude toward the UK should NOT depend on where Brexit is in the polling.TheScreamingEagles said:
It clearly does.0 -
Yes, indeed. It is racist and xenophobic. There's no way round that. But it is probably effective nevertheless.RealBritain said:
The poster is clearly playing on fears of all and any foreigners, particularly the middle-eastern looking ones pictured.Pauly said:
Your first point a) is dangerous short-term-ism and b) the poster is clearly referring to the fact that if we vote remain the fact that they're German is irrelevant because they can all come here.FF43 said:
I thought about that. But a) That possible situation is down the line - the immediate problem is of refugees and b) They would be German by that point. I don't think Leave are proposing an immigration policy based on racial stereotyping.Pauly said:
They won't be able to come here on mass if Germany or another country decides to give them EU passports Willy nilly.FF43 said:
I think the photo on the UKIP poster is a column of Syrian refugees, which isn't actually a problem that will be addressed by leaving the EU.Scott_P said:
See the UKIP poster...FF43 said:Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.
QED
But who needs logic?
But, heck, that poster isn't there to stimulate reasoned discussion. It's there to play on base fears.
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A question for PBers on free movement after a leave vote:
I currently live in France, but will be moving back to the UK for a year between late 2016/2017. After that year I would be intending to move back to France.
How would leaving affect my plans here? assuming we follow the article 50 route the earliest we would leave is 2018 so I should be able to move back without an issue, but I could be kicked out once we leave as I will only have moved back after a brexit vote, so will those acquired rights still count (if they ever were to count at all)?0 -
That reprogramming you got sent for clearly hasn't gone well....Scott_P said:
More concerning, I find myself agreeing with Roger.Jobabob said:This referendum has put me, Scott, Carlotta, Topping, Southam, Surbiton, Tyson, Richard N, Ally M (Antifrank) and HYFUD all on the same side. We argued like cats and dogs in years gone by.
I have found I rather like the new consensus.
British Democratic Party anyone?
It truly is the end of days...0 -
Farage in the cabinet is a long way off - that gift is one from the PM, we have one and if he steps down there needs to be a leadership election in the Conservative party.
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No it is a depiction of an actual event whereby thousands of people walked into Europe without being registered or otherwise. It was a dangerous extreme left moment of open border anarchism from Merkel and friends.RealBritain said:
The poster is clearly playing on fears of all and any foreigners, particularly the middle-eastern looking ones pictured.Pauly said:
Your first point a) is dangerous short-term-ism and b) the poster is clearly referring to the fact that if we vote remain the fact that they're German is irrelevant because they can all come here.FF43 said:
I thought about that. But a) That possible situation is down the line - the immediate problem is of refugees and b) They would be German by that point. I don't think Leave are proposing an immigration policy based on racial stereotyping.Pauly said:
They won't be able to come here on mass if Germany or another country decides to give them EU passports Willy nilly.FF43 said:
I think the photo on the UKIP poster is a column of Syrian refugees, which isn't actually a problem that will be addressed by leaving the EU.Scott_P said:
See the UKIP poster...FF43 said:Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.
QED
But who needs logic?
But, heck, that poster isn't there to stimulate reasoned discussion. It's there to play on base fears.0 -
Some unskilled migrants are being rejected, and unrestricted right to resettle has been rescinded.SouthamObserver said:
What restrictions have they introduced? My understanding is that they have actually done very little out of concern for putting access to the single market at risk.MaxPB said:
They had a referendum on it a couple of years ago which the SVP won very narrowly. The EU has continued as normal with Switzerland's single market status while they have introduced restrictions on EU migrants. The EU are just waiting for this referendum to be over before they use the Lichtenstein solution and just let the emergency brake continue indefinitely or until migration pressures reduce to a level where Switzerland decided to rescind it.SouthamObserver said:
Have they? When did that happen?MaxPB said:
Switzerland have pulled their emergency brake, and much like Lichtenstein it looks like the EU will end up caving and just let it continue indefinitely.SouthamObserver said:
If we end up with a Swiss-style relationship with the EU then millions of voters who were promised substantially lower immigration are going to be furious.MaxPB said:
All of that is possible, but it depends on higher wages which is hard to achieve within a system which has an essentially unlimited poll of unskilled workers. Switzerland has proved you can have a society with low taxation, decent public services and high wages.SouthamObserver said:
The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable BrexitGIN1138 said:
Wishful thinking? Denial?rcs1000 said:I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.
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There are 12 regions. I suspect they will announce the NW England regional result last, which will tell us the national result.TudorRose said:
PM (radio programme) yesterday suggested that the BBC won't make a prediction before 5am depending on how close it is, but the 'official result' is due at 'Breakfast time'. Apparently votes are announced locally and then regionally before the national result from Manchester.RepublicanTory said:
When exactly will we know the outcome?Richard_Tyndall said:
I agree. I have been wanting this and working towards it for for 30 years and can hardly quite believe it might finally happen. I won't believe it until 24th.Pauly said:I'm trying not to BeLeave just in case I get crushingly disappointed on the 23rd.
Is there a link to the timetable of counting and reporting?0 -
Just like Hague was mocked for warning about the Euro, I suppose?TCPoliticalBetting said:He could have exited with dignity instead of exiting through public ridicule. He will be mocked over this for the rest of his life. It will also be well deserved.
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"Looks like a march past."midwinter said:
Effective but disgusting. Surely the ends don't always justify the means. Funny isn't it that the closer we get to next Thursday that a lot of Leaves real motivation becomes apparent as the smoke and mirrors fade away. It's not attractive. Looks like a march past.Pong said:
That's a horrible poster.TheScreamingEagles said:and this is why
https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/743382955003940864
Horribly effective I fear.
Well said.0 -
Tusk needs to be careful not to write cheques the EU parliament and the ECJ won't cash. But I'm intrigued to hear what he has to say, if anything.rottenborough said:
Bloody needs to be one. Pronto.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I very much doubt that Farage would be a offered a post in the Cabinet.Brom said:
Given Crick's dislike for UKIP and given he hasn't named a source and given Channel 4 News is widely ignored when it comes to covering anything outside of the liberal bubble I'd say this is less terrifying and more 'completely unsubstantiated'rottenborough said:Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick
Farage friend says he's been approached by Boris camp about job in Johnson govt & place in Lords to avoid fighting possible Thanet by-elect
This is truly terrifying. An out-an-out bigot will be in the British cabinet within weeks.
A huge realignment of politics is in the air if we vote Leave. Surely moderate Tories have to join forces with moderate Labour and stop this insanity?0 -
Re: Donald Tusk twitter tatement. That's 1 out of 5, when do we get the other 4 Presidents to have a full house?0
-
More like Major and the ERM.Richard_Nabavi said:
Just like Hague was mocked for warning about the Euro, I suppose?TCPoliticalBetting said:He could have exited with dignity instead of exiting through public ridicule. He will be mocked over this for the rest of his life. It will also be well deserved.
0 -
Politician tells 'story' about his dad's business being closed by the EU and the CFP.HappyMcFluffy said:
To their credit, the Guardian posted the full transcript of the interview here. Doesn't seem that bad to me, but decide for yourself : http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/15/eu-referendum-live-osborne-punishment-budget-farage-flotilla-thames?page=with:block-5761aa3ee4b04ceead988c83#block-5761aa3ee4b04ceead988c83TCPoliticalBetting said:The nasty side of the Guardian, misquoting an elderly man.
http://order-order.com/2016/06/16/how-remainers-stitched-up-goves-elderly-father/
Politician parades dad in front of tv cameras to back up 'story'.
Paper phones dad and reproduces verbatim his his words, suggesting that business closed before implimentation of CFP quotas.
Politician goes off on one about exploiting sick, old dad.
Perhaps politician shouldn't have exploited sick, old dad in the first place.0 -
A realignment is entirely feasible. But less of the "moderate".rottenborough said:Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick
Farage friend says he's been approached by Boris camp about job in Johnson govt & place in Lords to avoid fighting possible Thanet by-elect
This is truly terrifying. An out-an-out bigot will be in the British cabinet within weeks.
A huge realignment of politics is in the air if we vote Leave. Surely moderate Tories have to join forces with moderate Labour and stop this insanity?
From Labour's perspective who are the "moderates". The people despairing that their voters are voting for bigotry and racism. The people who abstained on welfare cuts to the poorest. The people who think the best alternative to Tory privatisation and marketisation is Labour privatisation and marketisation.
When you are that far removed from your own party membership and more importantly the electorate you are not "moderate".
A new One Nation party with Cameron Clegg and Blair aficionados all on board. A marvellous prospect for all of us who want to see a return to proper Tory and Labour parties.0 -
Given that Remain are going to lose, I'd prefer they did it with a little dignity. Geldof yesterday was a fucking disgrace. I can also imagine we are going to get a lot of hand-wringing articles in the Guardian. Remain just have to accept that leave have had the most powerful argument to win this vote - the promise of a substantial reduction in immigration.
The focus now needs to be on delivery of that and also of all the other stuff that has been promised.0 -
I think those Leaver MPs who think it is clever to undermine the Governor of the Bank of England when we will need him to help calm the markets in the event of a Leave vote need their heads examining. Britons are entitled to vote Leave but the BoE has a job to do to ensure that the immediate consequences are handled calmly and with as little disruption as possible. Pissing off the people charged with that job is a sign of political immaturity and seriously makes me wonder whether I would wish to entrust my country to people with such poor judgment, frankly.PlatoSaid said:Golly, Carney has gone off the deep end according to Sky.
0 -
Well I won't be watching that. It will be "Givvvve us your f##kin money" screaming and shouting like Eddie Izzard last week.Morris_Dancer said:QT panel could be feisty:
"David Dimbleby presents topical debate from York. On the panel are musician and Remain campaigner Bob Geldof, Labour's former home secretary Alan Johnson MP, Conservative education secretary Nicky Morgan MP, economist Ruth Lea, Leave campaigner and former Labour minister Tom Harris and the novelist and former Conservative MP Louise Mensch."
I really really really wish QT would drop this BS of putting celebs on the panel. The most sensible member of that panel and one that I would like to hear speak, Ruth Lea, will do well to get an word in edge ways.
0 -
It depends on how badly they perceive they will get burned.Pulpstar said:
The EU's attitude toward the UK should NOT depend on where Brexit is in the polling.TheScreamingEagles said:
It clearly does.0 -
What would Scott_Pasty do with his life with nowt to paste about on here? Work?MTimT said:0 -
Final outing for Nicky Morgan though.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well I won't be watching that. It will be "Givvvve us your f##kin money" screaming and shouting like Eddie Izzard last week.Morris_Dancer said:QT panel could be feisty:
"David Dimbleby presents topical debate from York. On the panel are musician and Remain campaigner Bob Geldof, Labour's former home secretary Alan Johnson MP, Conservative education secretary Nicky Morgan MP, economist Ruth Lea, Leave campaigner and former Labour minister Tom Harris and the novelist and former Conservative MP Louise Mensch."
I really really really wish QT would drop this BS of putting celebs on the panel. The most sensible member of that panel and one that I would like to hear speak, Ruth Lea, will do well to get an word in edge ways.0 -
Have you decided who you are voting for?Cyclefree said:
I think those Leaver MPs who think it is clever to undermine the Governor of the Bank of England when we will need him to help calm the markets in the event of a Leave vote need their heads examining. Britons are entitled to vote Leave but the BoE has a job to do to ensure that the immediate consequences are handled calmly and with as little disruption as possible. Pissing off the people charged with that job is a sign of political immaturity and seriously makes me wonder whether I would wish to entrust my country to people with such poor judgment, frankly.PlatoSaid said:Golly, Carney has gone off the deep end according to Sky.
0 -
Hague was the first UK politician to take anti-EU demagoguery into the mainstream. He'll deserve his share of the blame if we vote to Leave next week.Richard_Nabavi said:
Just like Hague was mocked for warning about the Euro, I suppose?TCPoliticalBetting said:He could have exited with dignity instead of exiting through public ridicule. He will be mocked over this for the rest of his life. It will also be well deserved.
0 -
If momentum is considered significant, that 10% swing to Leave is massive. Just think about what is happening here.0
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Ah, the forked tongue of the EU bureaucracy.
Buy their bullshit? A man would be better off buying magic beans.0 -
Carney has a vote as well, as a citizen of the commonwealth.Cyclefree said:
I think those Leaver MPs who think it is clever to undermine the Governor of the Bank of England when we will need him to help calm the markets in the event of a Leave vote need their heads examining. Britons are entitled to vote Leave but the BoE has a job to do to ensure that the immediate consequences are handled calmly and with as little disruption as possible. Pissing off the people charged with that job is a sign of political immaturity and seriously makes me wonder whether I would wish to entrust my country to people with such poor judgment, frankly.PlatoSaid said:Golly, Carney has gone off the deep end according to Sky.
Either way, we are in purdah and it would be improper for Carney to make any statements on the subject, he will have to wait until after the 23rd.0 -
No - he is saying that if we vote REMAIN the EU will have the shackles on us faster than you can say Frau Merkel.chestnut said:0 -
Mr. Urquhart, I rarely watch QT anymore anyway, but must agree.
I think some celebrities would be quite good (intelligent ones) but the handwringing nonsense of people who think their fame makes them worth listening to on political matters is not pleasing.
Izzard going on about humanity as if we're going to start stoning homosexuals and sending children up chimneys if we leave was simply pathetic.0 -
I completely agree. If Carney had endorsed Osborne's tragic budget that would be one thing. He's behaved with complete propriety and simply performed his statutory duties. Jenkins is an idiot.Cyclefree said:
I think those Leaver MPs who think it is clever to undermine the Governor of the Bank of England when we will need him to help calm the markets in the event of a Leave vote need their heads examining. Britons are entitled to vote Leave but the BoE has a job to do to ensure that the immediate consequences are handled calmly and with as little disruption as possible. Pissing off the people charged with that job is a sign of political immaturity and seriously makes me wonder whether I would wish to entrust my country to people with such poor judgment, frankly.PlatoSaid said:Golly, Carney has gone off the deep end according to Sky.
0 -
It's completely impossible to say for sure, since it depends entirely on the agreement reached with the EU. You won't have 'acquired rights' unless the French decide to grant them (the Vienna Convention, which Leavers quote in their ignorance, refers to the rights of states, not individuals, and in any case France didn't sign it).Paristonda said:A question for PBers on free movement after a leave vote:
I currently live in France, but will be moving back to the UK for a year between late 2016/2017. After that year I would be intending to move back to France.
How would leaving affect my plans here? assuming we follow the article 50 route the earliest we would leave is 2018 so I should be able to move back without an issue, but I could be kicked out once we leave as I will only have moved back after a brexit vote, so will those acquired rights still count (if they ever were to count at all)?
In practice, I'd expect the UK and other EU countries to grant each other's citizens reciprocal rights of residence, but probably involving more bureaucracy and not automatically as of right. Also your healthcare costs might become much more expensive.
See here:
http://www.connexionfrance.com/Vienna-Convention-1969-expats-rights-residence-Brexit-17867-view-article.html
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For saying what the people think.williamglenn said:
Hague was the first UK politician to take anti-EU demagoguery into the mainstream. He'll deserve his share of the blame if we vote to Leave next week.Richard_Nabavi said:
Just like Hague was mocked for warning about the Euro, I suppose?TCPoliticalBetting said:He could have exited with dignity instead of exiting through public ridicule. He will be mocked over this for the rest of his life. It will also be well deserved.
Jeez, the EU luvvies really don't get democracy.0 -
Yes, and Lawson and Lamont.MaxPB said:More like Major and the ERM.
0 -
Mr. Max, could be wrong but I believe we're scheduled for pre-vote pronouncements from the IMF and Carney.0
-
Quick question for the Conservative Remainers. Put yourself forward a week after Britain has decided for better or worse to vote "Brexit".
If you were armed with this foresight back in 2015 (Of course noone is - but that isn't the question), would you have prefferred a Labour lead Ed Miliband Gov't back in May 2015.
Genuine question.0 -
Have these people not heard of internet betting?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Well moderate as in the centre ground. Normal, sensible people who care about their families and the economy of their countries and look out into the world, and are not part of a weird coalition of bitter socialist isolationists and rightwing golf club boors.RochdalePioneers said:
A realignment is entirely feasible. But less of the "moderate".rottenborough said:Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick
Farage friend says he's been approached by Boris camp about job in Johnson govt & place in Lords to avoid fighting possible Thanet by-elect
This is truly terrifying. An out-an-out bigot will be in the British cabinet within weeks.
A huge realignment of politics is in the air if we vote Leave. Surely moderate Tories have to join forces with moderate Labour and stop this insanity?
From Labour's perspective who are the "moderates". The people despairing that their voters are voting for bigotry and racism. The people who abstained on welfare cuts to the poorest. The people who think the best alternative to Tory privatisation and marketisation is Labour privatisation and marketisation.
When you are that far removed from your own party membership and more importantly the electorate you are not "moderate".
A new One Nation party with Cameron Clegg and Blair aficionados all on board. A marvellous prospect for all of us who want to see a return to proper Tory and Labour parties.0 -
The poster is not designed with this level of complex intention, and it doesn't anticipate that level of complex recognition in response. The message is simple.Pauly said:
No it is a depiction of an actual event whereby thousands of people walked into Europe without being registered or otherwise. It was a dangerous extreme left moment of open border anarchism from Merkel and friends.RealBritain said:
The poster is clearly playing on fears of all and any foreigners, particularly the middle-eastern looking ones pictured.Pauly said:
Your first point a) is dangerous short-term-ism and b) the poster is clearly referring to the fact that if we vote remain the fact that they're German is irrelevant because they can all come here.FF43 said:
I thought about that. But a) That possible situation is down the line - the immediate problem is of refugees and b) They would be German by that point. I don't think Leave are proposing an immigration policy based on racial stereotyping.Pauly said:
They won't be able to come here on mass if Germany or another country decides to give them EU passports Willy nilly.FF43 said:
I think the photo on the UKIP poster is a column of Syrian refugees, which isn't actually a problem that will be addressed by leaving the EU.Scott_P said:
See the UKIP poster...FF43 said:Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.
QED
But who needs logic?
But, heck, that poster isn't there to stimulate reasoned discussion. It's there to play on base fears.0 -
Scott_P said:
@business: BOE Governor Mark Carney hits back after Leave campaign accuses him of opposing #Brexit https://t.co/EsHjmtWWtI https://t.co/uKa4G7jGuhgeoffw said:What has he said?
In the future, I would be grateful if you would do me and my fellow independent committee members the courtesy of consulting the public record before writing letters such as that which I received on Monday.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/news/2016/governorletter140616.pdf0 -
Beyond brave.FrancisUrquhart said:
Have these people not heard of internet betting?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The horror of it...Watford of all places....at least it isn't Luton I guess...No wonder so many people think metro elite are out of touch.SeanT said:ANECDOTE THINGY ALERT
My agent, who was very much on the fence, and possibly swinging to LEAVE, has plumped for REMAiN on the grounds that her husband will go bust with LEAVE and she'll "have to live in a semi in Watford"
I reckon the Worried Professionals will still swing this for REMAIN.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
What UKinEU settlement?
I thought Cameron's EU negotiations had already been decided?0 -
I think she's out of the cabinet regardless of the outcome. And she can thank Osborne for that.rottenborough said:
Final outing for Nicky Morgan though.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well I won't be watching that. It will be "Givvvve us your f##kin money" screaming and shouting like Eddie Izzard last week.Morris_Dancer said:QT panel could be feisty:
"David Dimbleby presents topical debate from York. On the panel are musician and Remain campaigner Bob Geldof, Labour's former home secretary Alan Johnson MP, Conservative education secretary Nicky Morgan MP, economist Ruth Lea, Leave campaigner and former Labour minister Tom Harris and the novelist and former Conservative MP Louise Mensch."
I really really really wish QT would drop this BS of putting celebs on the panel. The most sensible member of that panel and one that I would like to hear speak, Ruth Lea, will do well to get an word in edge ways.0 -
The only hope I'm clinging to is that we'll see one of the biggest ever swingbacks on the day.TheScreamingEagles said:£35k bet on Remain
0 -
A basic summary of why the polls have swung so heavily towards Leave
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwMVMbmQBug
0 -
I think we can add Carney to the list of those whom Leave will hunt down after their win next week. Leave are sounding vengeful. I also suspect that Farage will defect to the Tories and be given a by-election in a safe seat once the incumbent has been ousted. Surely Tatton or Witney - the brutal symbolism of Tory pro-europeanism utterly crushed will be too tempting to resist.Scott_P said:
@business: BOE Governor Mark Carney hits back after Leave campaign accuses him of opposing #Brexit https://t.co/EsHjmtWWtI https://t.co/uKa4G7jGuhgeoffw said:What has he said?
0 -
It's complicated. Liechtenstein and Iceland are in the EEA; Switzerland isn't in the EEA but has a separate bilateral arrangement.SouthamObserver said:
What restrictions have they introduced? My understanding is that they have actually done very little out of concern for putting access to the single market at risk.MaxPB said:
They had a referendum on it a couple of years ago which the SVP won very narrowly. The EU has continued as normal with Switzerland's single market status while they have introduced restrictions on EU migrants. The EU are just waiting for this referendum to be over before they use the Lichtenstein solution and just let the emergency brake continue indefinitely or until migration pressures reduce to a level where Switzerland decided to rescind it.
Liechtenstein negotiated a partial opt out of the key EEA freedom of movement principle, where EEA citizens are allowed to work in the principality but (mostly) not to live there. As the liveable, non-mountainous area of Liechtenstein is about the size of the postage stamps they flog, that's understandable. It was supposed to be a temporary arrangement but seems to have become permanent, as these things do.
Switzerland held a referendum in 2014 to restrict EU immigration into the country in contravention of the bilateral agreements. This move has been rejected by the EU, but is supposed to come in unilaterally next year, per the referendum question. It's an ongoing dispute.
Iceland pulled the emergency brake on freedom of movement - the article in the EEA treaty that Max refers to - in 2008 along with capital controls etc. In principle this is still a temporary measure.0 -
How on earth do you manage to arrange your finances in order to go bust on a "leave" vote ?!SeanT said:ANECDOTE THINGY ALERT
My agent, who was very much on the fence, and possibly swinging to LEAVE, has plumped for REMAiN on the grounds that her husband will go bust with LEAVE and she'll "have to live in a semi in Watford"
I reckon the Worried Professionals will still swing this for REMAIN.
It may well cost me a few quid but does the whole of London have 5% equity mortgages or some such ?0 -
No, another coalition would have kept the maniacs in their caves.Pulpstar said:Quick question for the Conservative Remainers. Put yourself forward a week after Britain has decided for better or worse to vote "Brexit".
If you were armed with this foresight back in 2015 (Of course noone is - but that isn't the question), would you have prefferred a Labour lead Ed Miliband Gov't back in May 2015.
Genuine question.0 -
Hasn't Farage dismissed this already on Twitter. Old news . . .Brom said:
Given Crick's dislike for UKIP and given he hasn't named a source and given Channel 4 News is widely ignored when it comes to covering anything outside of the liberal bubble I'd say this is less terrifying and more 'completely unsubstantiated'rottenborough said:Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick
Farage friend says he's been approached by Boris camp about job in Johnson govt & place in Lords to avoid fighting possible Thanet by-elect
This is truly terrifying. An out-an-out bigot will be in the British cabinet within weeks.
A huge realignment of politics is in the air if we vote Leave. Surely moderate Tories have to join forces with moderate Labour and stop this insanity?0 -
No. This referendum had to happen sometime.Pulpstar said:Quick question for the Conservative Remainers. Put yourself forward a week after Britain has decided for better or worse to vote "Brexit".
If you were armed with this foresight back in 2015 (Of course noone is - but that isn't the question), would you have prefferred a Labour lead Ed Miliband Gov't back in May 2015.
Genuine question.0 -
Perhaps he was prescient?williamglenn said:
Hague was the first UK politician to take anti-EU demagoguery into the mainstream. He'll deserve his share of the blame if we vote to Leave next week.Richard_Nabavi said:
Just like Hague was mocked for warning about the Euro, I suppose?TCPoliticalBetting said:He could have exited with dignity instead of exiting through public ridicule. He will be mocked over this for the rest of his life. It will also be well deserved.
0 -
So you think he was wrong to warn about the Euro then. Hmm. You seem to have been asleep for the last 6 or 7 years as the Eurozone has lurched from one crisis to another.williamglenn said:
Hague was the first UK politician to take anti-EU demagoguery into the mainstream. He'll deserve his share of the blame if we vote to Leave next week.Richard_Nabavi said:
Just like Hague was mocked for warning about the Euro, I suppose?TCPoliticalBetting said:He could have exited with dignity instead of exiting through public ridicule. He will be mocked over this for the rest of his life. It will also be well deserved.
0 -
Mr. Evershed, the deal's agreed but not implemented.
We could vote Remain, and the EU could still veto the deal (think it has to go through the Parliament).0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
What UKinEU settlement? What can he offer though. Restrictions on free movement isn't going to fly, so what else, free owls for every UK citizen?0 -
He's a very naughty boy and has been given a public spanking.....John_M said:
I completely agree. If Carney had endorsed Osborne's tragic budget that would be one thing. He's behaved with complete propriety and simply performed his statutory duties. Jenkins is an idiot.Cyclefree said:
I think those Leaver MPs who think it is clever to undermine the Governor of the Bank of England when we will need him to help calm the markets in the event of a Leave vote need their heads examining. Britons are entitled to vote Leave but the BoE has a job to do to ensure that the immediate consequences are handled calmly and with as little disruption as possible. Pissing off the people charged with that job is a sign of political immaturity and seriously makes me wonder whether I would wish to entrust my country to people with such poor judgment, frankly.PlatoSaid said:Golly, Carney has gone off the deep end according to Sky.
0 -
Yep. Gone whatever happens.TudorRose said:
I think she's out of the cabinet regardless of the outcome. And she can thank Osborne for that.rottenborough said:
Final outing for Nicky Morgan though.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well I won't be watching that. It will be "Givvvve us your f##kin money" screaming and shouting like Eddie Izzard last week.Morris_Dancer said:QT panel could be feisty:
"David Dimbleby presents topical debate from York. On the panel are musician and Remain campaigner Bob Geldof, Labour's former home secretary Alan Johnson MP, Conservative education secretary Nicky Morgan MP, economist Ruth Lea, Leave campaigner and former Labour minister Tom Harris and the novelist and former Conservative MP Louise Mensch."
I really really really wish QT would drop this BS of putting celebs on the panel. The most sensible member of that panel and one that I would like to hear speak, Ruth Lea, will do well to get an word in edge ways.0 -
It's time for the #EUstone!!!FrancisUrquhart said:TheScreamingEagles said:
What UKinEU settlement? What can he offer though. Restrictions on free movement isn't going to fly, so what else, free owls for every UK citizen?0 -
Those guys really did know how to fight each other.TheScreamingEagles said:
I shall be forming the Plantagenet Partylogical_song said:
OK, I get it Momentum takes over the Labour Party and UKIP takes over the Tory Party. Big gap in the centre for 'One Nation Social Democrat' party.TheScreamingEagles said:
Stop depressing me you git.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Imagine if he brings Reckless with him...MaxPB said:
Same here. Farage has no place in the party, and I'm hoping that it was just another idiot "friend of Nigel" talking bullshit as they always do.TheScreamingEagles said:
I saw talk of Farage rejoining the Tory Party/becoming a minister in a BoJo government.Scott_P said:
Yupfelix said:I would not vote for a Tory party represented by the Leave campaign or their outriders on here. And that would be a first for me.
The day that happens, is the day I walk out of the Tory party.
Brexit already means me having to spend about six weeks in France, Reckless and Farage joining the Tory party would be the cherry on the parfait.0 -
Are there enough "worried professionals" to swing back against the tide of anger that Farage and Boris have whipped up with their lies?FrancisUrquhart said:
The horror of it...Watford of all places....at least it isn't Luton I guess...No wonder so many people think metro elite are out of touch.SeanT said:ANECDOTE THINGY ALERT
My agent, who was very much on the fence, and possibly swinging to LEAVE, has plumped for REMAiN on the grounds that her husband will go bust with LEAVE and she'll "have to live in a semi in Watford"
I reckon the Worried Professionals will still swing this for REMAIN.0 -
According to this:MaxPB said:
Some unskilled migrants are being rejected, and unrestricted right to resettle has been rescinded.SouthamObserver said:
What restrictions have they introduced? My understanding is that they have actually done very little out of concern for putting access to the single market at risk.MaxPB said:
They had a referendum on it a couple of years ago which the SVP won very narrowly. The EU has continued as normal with Switzerland's single market status while they have introduced restrictions on EU migrants. The EU are just waiting for this referendum to be over before they use the Lichtenstein solution and just let the emergency brake continue indefinitely or until migration pressures reduce to a level where Switzerland decided to rescind it.SouthamObserver said:
Have they? When did that happen?MaxPB said:
Switzerland have pulled their emergency brake, and much like Lichtenstein it looks like the EU will end up caving and just let it continue indefinitely.SouthamObserver said:
If we end up with a Swiss-style relationship with the EU then millions of voters who were promised substantially lower immigration are going to be furious.MaxPB said:
All of that is possible, but it depends on higher wages which is hard to achieve within a system which has an essentially unlimited poll of unskilled workers. Switzerland has proved you can have a society with low taxation, decent public services and high wages.SouthamObserver said:
The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)
Swiss announce unilateral safeguard clause to curb immigration
the Swiss were still at loggerheads with the EU over freedom of movement in March 2016 and hadn't yet implemented anything. Has this actually changed yet? Where have you heard about unskilled migrants are being rejected?0 -
He was wrong to go around shouting 'Save the Pound'. He helped debase the argument on Europe because he had nothing to offer the public on anything they cared about in 2001.Richard_Tyndall said:
So you think he was wrong to warn about the Euro then. Hmm. You seem to have been asleep for the last 6 or 7 years as the Eurozone has lurched from one crisis to another.williamglenn said:
Hague was the first UK politician to take anti-EU demagoguery into the mainstream. He'll deserve his share of the blame if we vote to Leave next week.Richard_Nabavi said:
Just like Hague was mocked for warning about the Euro, I suppose?TCPoliticalBetting said:He could have exited with dignity instead of exiting through public ridicule. He will be mocked over this for the rest of his life. It will also be well deserved.
0 -
The House of York resurgent, and we'll take back our rightful lands in France.logical_song said:
Those guys really did know how to fight each other.TheScreamingEagles said:
I shall be forming the Plantagenet Partylogical_song said:
OK, I get it Momentum takes over the Labour Party and UKIP takes over the Tory Party. Big gap in the centre for 'One Nation Social Democrat' party.TheScreamingEagles said:
Stop depressing me you git.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Imagine if he brings Reckless with him...MaxPB said:
Same here. Farage has no place in the party, and I'm hoping that it was just another idiot "friend of Nigel" talking bullshit as they always do.TheScreamingEagles said:
I saw talk of Farage rejoining the Tory Party/becoming a minister in a BoJo government.Scott_P said:
Yupfelix said:I would not vote for a Tory party represented by the Leave campaign or their outriders on here. And that would be a first for me.
The day that happens, is the day I walk out of the Tory party.
Brexit already means me having to spend about six weeks in France, Reckless and Farage joining the Tory party would be the cherry on the parfait.
VOTE WINNER0
