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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori phone poll sees a 10% swing to Leave as Leave ta

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  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Pong said:

    That's a horrible poster.

    Horribly effective I fear.
    Effective but disgusting. Surely the ends don't always justify the means. Funny isn't it that the closer we get to next Thursday that a lot of Leaves real motivation becomes apparent as the smoke and mirrors fade away. It's not attractive. Looks like a march past.
  • chestnut said:

    chestnut said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.

    Wishful thinking? Denial?
    I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit

    The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)

    A Labour manifesto by the look of it.

    Indeed. It turns out that when Gove, Boris, Priti and co told us that there was no alternative to austerity they were telling lies. Whoever would have thought it?

    Put the £26bn or so that is EU fees and overseas aid back on the table and budget decisions could have been/can be very different.

    The EU money will get swallowed up immediately to cover the drop in tax receipts that will follow Brexit, as will the overseas aid money. The new Tory Leave government will have to borrow more to make good its promises. Let's see if that happens.
    Osborne has borrowed more money than he said he would in most if not all financial years. So what is the difference?
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    edited June 2016

    Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick
    Farage friend says he's been approached by Boris camp about job in Johnson govt & place in Lords to avoid fighting possible Thanet by-elect

    This is truly terrifying. An out-an-out bigot will be in the British cabinet within weeks.

    A huge realignment of politics is in the air if we vote Leave. Surely moderate Tories have to join forces with moderate Labour and stop this insanity?

    This is not about individuals but the long term future of this country. This will have an impact when Farage et al. are long dead and buried. Focus on the ball not the men.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    midwinter said:

    Pong said:

    That's a horrible poster.

    Horribly effective I fear.
    Effective but disgusting. Surely the ends don't always justify the means. Funny isn't it that the closer we get to next Thursday that a lot of Leaves real motivation becomes apparent as the smoke and mirrors fade away. It's not attractive. Looks like a march past.

    I blame the Turks.

  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick
    Farage friend says he's been approached by Boris camp about job in Johnson govt & place in Lords to avoid fighting possible Thanet by-elect

    This is truly terrifying. An out-an-out bigot will be in the British cabinet within weeks.

    A huge realignment of politics is in the air if we vote Leave. Surely moderate Tories have to join forces with moderate Labour and stop this insanity?

    Given Crick's dislike for UKIP and given he hasn't named a source and given Channel 4 News is widely ignored when it comes to covering anything outside of the liberal bubble I'd say this is less terrifying and more 'completely unsubstantiated'
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    One of the winners from the referendum discussions has been Jezza. Silence can be golden at times.

    I was a union rep for fifteen years, and at the branch council one day, the full-time rep gave us all a bit of good advice. Never recommend to your members something they don't agree with. The Labour party and some of the unions have failed to heed that message.

    Len is a political animal, but he is what he is. Some of the Labour MPs have only just listened to the non-metropolitan, less-middle class voters and it's come as a shock.

    Anti-Tory feelings may be ingrained in them, so urging them to vote against their own wishes to support Cameron/Osborne is playing with fire.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    chestnut said:

    chestnut said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.

    Wishful thinking? Denial?
    I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit

    The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)

    A Labour manifesto by the look of it.

    Indeed. It turns out that when Gove, Boris, Priti and co told us that there was no alternative to austerity they were telling lies. Whoever would have thought it?

    Put the £26bn or so that is EU fees and overseas aid back on the table and budget decisions could have been/can be very different.

    The EU money will get swallowed up immediately to cover the drop in tax receipts that will follow Brexit, as will the overseas aid money. The new Tory Leave government will have to borrow more to make good its promises. Let's see if that happens.

    Maybe it will, maybe it won't.

    However, the public mood is perhaps captured by these two poll findings;

    81% of people felt there was 'some risk' in leaving;
    61% of people were prepared to accept the chance of economic slowdown;

    I think a great many people have reached the point of concluding that things can't go on like this.

    Some of Britain's woes are not management issues; they are systemic ones.
  • SeanT said:

    I feel even more convinced that Osborne won't last the year. Michael Howard who gave George Osborne his big political break has written 'yesterday saw the threat of an emergency budget - which was nothing more than ludicrous scaremongering born of desperation. No responsible Chancellor would seriously propose any such thing.'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/15/former-tory-leaders-and-chancellors-accuse-george-osborne-of-lud/?WT.mc_id=e_DM128713&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pol_New_EU&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pol_New_EU_2016_06_16&utm_campaign=DM128713 and

    Allistair Heath descibes him as a kamikaze chancellor and concludes 'Mr Osborne no longer has any hope of leading a Tory party that he now despises, and is unlikely to remain as Chancellor for long even if Remain wins next week.' http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/15/it-will-all-end-in-tears-for-the-first-kamikaze-chancellor-in-hi/?WT.mc_id=e_DM128713&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pol_New_EU&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pol_New_EU_2016_06_16&utm_campaign=DM128713

    In an excellent post for the new www.reaction.life website, Iain Martin agrees 'George Osborne will be very lucky to survive more than a few months as Chancellor...it is difficult to see in practical terms how the Chancellor can carry on for long having lost the confidence of such a large part of the Conservative parliamentary party.' Full article is here http://reaction.life/osborne-looks-like-toast/

    I now think it's 4/6 or 8/13 that Osborne will go this year. The 7/4 with Hills that Osborne will cease to be Chancellor in 2016 is stand out value.

    Osborne's Bizarre Blackmail Budget felt like the act of a man who knows his career is over, whatever he does.

    It was a dramatic final gesture so he can say Told you so when and if Brexit goes tits up, and a gesture that might just win the vote, if he gets very lucky, so he can say, in his retirement, that he was the Chancellor who secured the UK's place in the EU when it seemed the polls were turning against.

    There is no downside for him, if you realise he is a man who knows he is condemned, whatever happens.
    He could have exited with dignity instead of exiting through public ridicule. He will be mocked over this for the rest of his life. It will also be well deserved.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    For those who were asking earlier why Gibraltar is so in favour of REMAIN:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/16/the-rock-of-remain-why-gibraltar-is-rejecting-brexit
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    QT panel could be feisty:
    "David Dimbleby presents topical debate from York. On the panel are musician and Remain campaigner Bob Geldof, Labour's former home secretary Alan Johnson MP, Conservative education secretary Nicky Morgan MP, economist Ruth Lea, Leave campaigner and former Labour minister Tom Harris and the novelist and former Conservative MP Louise Mensch."

    Geldof and Mensch... Reith will be turning in his grave.
    Christ, thank God Harris is on, otherwise the entire collective IQ would barely be into three figures.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    geoffw said:

    What has he said?

    @business: BOE Governor Mark Carney hits back after Leave campaign accuses him of opposing #Brexit https://t.co/EsHjmtWWtI https://t.co/uKa4G7jGuh
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    geoffw said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Golly, Carney has gone off the deep end according to Sky.

    What has he said?
    Bernard Jenkin wearing his Public Accounts Committee chair hat has written to Carney to remind him not to make any more announcements/interventions.

    Carney has sent him a three page !!!! letter and sounds very grumpy.

    EDIT for @Morris_Dancer too
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.

    Wishful thinking? Denial?
    I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit

    The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)

    All of that is possible, but it depends on higher wages which is hard to achieve within a system which has an essentially unlimited poll of unskilled workers. Switzerland has proved you can have a society with low taxation, decent public services and high wages.

    If we end up with a Swiss-style relationship with the EU then millions of voters who were promised substantially lower immigration are going to be furious.

    Switzerland have pulled their emergency brake, and much like Lichtenstein it looks like the EU will end up caving and just let it continue indefinitely.

    Have they? When did that happen?

    They had a referendum on it a couple of years ago which the SVP won very narrowly. The EU has continued as normal with Switzerland's single market status while they have introduced restrictions on EU migrants. The EU are just waiting for this referendum to be over before they use the Lichtenstein solution and just let the emergency brake continue indefinitely or until migration pressures reduce to a level where Switzerland decided to rescind it.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    edited June 2016

    Pauly said:

    I'm trying not to BeLeave just in case I get crushingly disappointed on the 23rd.

    I agree. I have been wanting this and working towards it for for 30 years and can hardly quite believe it might finally happen. I won't believe it until 24th.
    When exactly will we know the outcome?
    Is there a link to the timetable of counting and reporting?
    PM (radio programme) yesterday suggested that the BBC won't make a prediction before 5am depending on how close it is, but the 'official result' is due at 'Breakfast time'. Apparently votes are announced locally and then regionally before the national result from Manchester.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Miss Plato, what's Carney said?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    Farage in Cabinet in a UKIP, right of Tory government, surely means Corbyn will face a coup? Labour have to have an electable leader asap.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,908

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    felix said:

    I would not vote for a Tory party represented by the Leave campaign or their outriders on here. And that would be a first for me.

    Yup
    I saw talk of Farage rejoining the Tory Party/becoming a minister in a BoJo government.

    The day that happens, is the day I walk out of the Tory party.
    Same here. Farage has no place in the party, and I'm hoping that it was just another idiot "friend of Nigel" talking bullshit as they always do.
    Imagine if he brings Reckless with him...
    Stop depressing me you git.

    Brexit already means me having to spend about six weeks in France, Reckless and Farage joining the Tory party would be the cherry on the parfait.
    OK, I get it Momentum takes over the Labour Party and UKIP takes over the Tory Party. Big gap in the centre for 'One Nation Social Democrat' party.
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    Jobabob said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: If Ipsos MORI hadn't adjusted method for its final poll, it would have been Remain 50%, Leave 50% https://t.co/FsM7Eqsac5

    Interesting article, Scott.

    Suggests Mori have uprated underclass etc (politically disengaged).
    Many who vote in GEs but rarely in other elections will vote in this referendum. Some who vote in some GEs but not others will too. A few will vote who hardly vote at all. But most people in the "underclass" won't vote. The "underclass" aren't a factor.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    edited June 2016
    FF43 said:

    Pauly said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.

    See the UKIP poster...

    QED
    I think the photo on the UKIP poster is a column of Syrian refugees, which isn't actually a problem that will be addressed by leaving the EU.

    But who needs logic?
    They won't be able to come here on mass if Germany or another country decides to give them EU passports Willy nilly.
    I thought about that. But a) That possible situation is down the line - the immediate problem is of refugees and b) They would be German by that point. I don't think Leave are proposing an immigration policy based on racial stereotyping.

    But, heck, that poster isn't there to stimulate reasoned discussion. It's there to play on base fears.
    Your first point a) is dangerous short-term-ism and b) the poster is clearly referring to the fact that if we vote remain the fact that they're German is irrelevant because they can all come here.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,172
    edited June 2016

    chestnut said:

    chestnut said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.

    Wishful thinking? Denial?
    I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit

    The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)

    A Labour manifesto by the look of it.

    Indeed. It turns out that when Gove, Boris, Priti and co told us that there was no alternative to austerity they were telling lies. Whoever would have thought it?

    Put the £26bn or so that is EU fees and overseas aid back on the table and budget decisions could have been/can be very different.

    The EU money will get swallowed up immediately to cover the drop in tax receipts that will follow Brexit, as will the overseas aid money. The new Tory Leave government will have to borrow more to make good its promises. Let's see if that happens.
    Osborne has borrowed more money than he said he would in most if not all financial years. So what is the difference?
    Everytime I looked at the emergency budget yesterday I wondered why it wasn't implemented last July....
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    SeanT said:

    I feel even more convinced that Osborne won't last the year. Michael Howard who gave George Osborne his big political break has written 'yesterday saw the threat of an emergency budget - which was nothing more than ludicrous scaremongering born of desperation. No responsible Chancellor would seriously propose any such thing.'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/15/former-tory-leaders-and-chancellors-accuse-george-osborne-of-lud/?WT.mc_id=e_DM128713&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pol_New_EU&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pol_New_EU_2016_06_16&utm_campaign=DM128713 and

    Allistair Heath descibes him as a kamikaze chancellor and concludes 'Mr Osborne no longer has any hope of leading a Tory party that he now despises, and is unlikely to remain as Chancellor for long even if Remain wins next week.' http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/15/it-will-all-end-in-tears-for-the-first-kamikaze-chancellor-in-hi/?WT.mc_id=e_DM128713&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pol_New_EU&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pol_New_EU_2016_06_16&utm_campaign=DM128713

    In an excellent post for the new www.reaction.life website, Iain Martin agrees 'George Osborne will be very lucky to survive more than a few months as Chancellor...it is difficult to see in practical terms how the Chancellor can carry on for long having lost the confidence of such a large part of the Conservative parliamentary party.' Full article is here http://reaction.life/osborne-looks-like-toast/

    I now think it's 4/6 or 8/13 that Osborne will go this year. The 7/4 with Hills that Osborne will cease to be Chancellor in 2016 is stand out value.

    Osborne's Bizarre Blackmail Budget felt like the act of a man who knows his career is over, whatever he does.

    It was a dramatic final gesture so he can say Told you so when and if Brexit goes tits up, and a gesture that might just win the vote, if he gets very lucky, so he can say, in his retirement, that he was the Chancellor who secured the UK's place in the EU when it seemed the polls were turning against.

    There is no downside for him, if you realise he is a man who knows he is condemned, whatever happens.
    He could have exited with dignity instead of exiting through public ridicule. He will be mocked over this for the rest of his life. It will also be well deserved.
    Yeah right. If leave win he's damned whatever happens. this intervention changes nothing apart from changing the narrative back to where it should be....the economy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    Bloody needs to be one. Pronto.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,440

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    felix said:

    I would not vote for a Tory party represented by the Leave campaign or their outriders on here. And that would be a first for me.

    Yup
    I saw talk of Farage rejoining the Tory Party/becoming a minister in a BoJo government.

    The day that happens, is the day I walk out of the Tory party.
    Same here. Farage has no place in the party, and I'm hoping that it was just another idiot "friend of Nigel" talking bullshit as they always do.
    Imagine if he brings Reckless with him...
    Stop depressing me you git.

    Brexit already means me having to spend about six weeks in France, Reckless and Farage joining the Tory party would be the cherry on the parfait.
    OK, I get it Momentum takes over the Labour Party and UKIP takes over the Tory Party. Big gap in the centre for 'One Nation Social Democrat' party.
    I shall be forming the Plantagenet Party
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    PlatoSaid said:

    geoffw said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Golly, Carney has gone off the deep end according to Sky.

    What has he said?
    Bernard Jenkin wearing his Public Accounts Committee chair hat has written to Carney to remind him not to make any more announcements/interventions.

    Carney has sent him a three page !!!! letter and sounds very grumpy.
    It's a very disingenuous reply suggesting that Jenkin was referring to Carney's personal view, when I think it was fairly clear he meant Carney's official view.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.

    Wishful thinking? Denial?
    I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit

    The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)

    All of that is possible, but it depends on higher wages which is hard to achieve within a system which has an essentially unlimited poll of unskilled workers. Switzerland has proved you can have a society with low taxation, decent public services and high wages.

    If we end up with a Swiss-style relationship with the EU then millions of voters who were promised substantially lower immigration are going to be furious.

    Switzerland have pulled their emergency brake, and much like Lichtenstein it looks like the EU will end up caving and just let it continue indefinitely.

    Have they? When did that happen?

    They had a referendum on it a couple of years ago which the SVP won very narrowly. The EU has continued as normal with Switzerland's single market status while they have introduced restrictions on EU migrants. The EU are just waiting for this referendum to be over before they use the Lichtenstein solution and just let the emergency brake continue indefinitely or until migration pressures reduce to a level where Switzerland decided to rescind it.

    What restrictions have they introduced? My understanding is that they have actually done very little out of concern for putting access to the single market at risk.

  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Pauly said:

    FF43 said:

    Pauly said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.

    See the UKIP poster...

    QED
    I think the photo on the UKIP poster is a column of Syrian refugees, which isn't actually a problem that will be addressed by leaving the EU.

    But who needs logic?
    They won't be able to come here on mass if Germany or another country decides to give them EU passports Willy nilly.
    I thought about that. But a) That possible situation is down the line - the immediate problem is of refugees and b) They would be German by that point. I don't think Leave are proposing an immigration policy based on racial stereotyping.

    But, heck, that poster isn't there to stimulate reasoned discussion. It's there to play on base fears.
    Your first point a) is dangerous short-term-ism and b) the poster is clearly referring to the fact that if we vote remain the fact that they're German is irrelevant because they can all come here.
    The poster is clearly playing on fears of all and any foreigners, particularly the middle-eastern looking ones pictured.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Scott_P said:

    felix said:

    I would not vote for a Tory party represented by the Leave campaign or their outriders on here. And that would be a first for me.

    Yup
    Out of interest, who would you vote for in that circumstance? Sounds like your only option is abstain.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663
    It's just going to be a restatement of the deal and a promise to pass it within a year.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    The EU's attitude toward the UK should NOT depend on where Brexit is in the polling.

    It clearly does.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630

    Pauly said:

    FF43 said:

    Pauly said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.

    See the UKIP poster...

    QED
    I think the photo on the UKIP poster is a column of Syrian refugees, which isn't actually a problem that will be addressed by leaving the EU.

    But who needs logic?
    They won't be able to come here on mass if Germany or another country decides to give them EU passports Willy nilly.
    I thought about that. But a) That possible situation is down the line - the immediate problem is of refugees and b) They would be German by that point. I don't think Leave are proposing an immigration policy based on racial stereotyping.

    But, heck, that poster isn't there to stimulate reasoned discussion. It's there to play on base fears.
    Your first point a) is dangerous short-term-ism and b) the poster is clearly referring to the fact that if we vote remain the fact that they're German is irrelevant because they can all come here.
    The poster is clearly playing on fears of all and any foreigners, particularly the middle-eastern looking ones pictured.

    Yes, indeed. It is racist and xenophobic. There's no way round that. But it is probably effective nevertheless.

  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    A question for PBers on free movement after a leave vote:

    I currently live in France, but will be moving back to the UK for a year between late 2016/2017. After that year I would be intending to move back to France.

    How would leaving affect my plans here? assuming we follow the article 50 route the earliest we would leave is 2018 so I should be able to move back without an issue, but I could be kicked out once we leave as I will only have moved back after a brexit vote, so will those acquired rights still count (if they ever were to count at all)?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    Scott_P said:

    Jobabob said:

    This referendum has put me, Scott, Carlotta, Topping, Southam, Surbiton, Tyson, Richard N, Ally M (Antifrank) and HYFUD all on the same side. We argued like cats and dogs in years gone by.

    I have found I rather like the new consensus.

    British Democratic Party anyone?

    More concerning, I find myself agreeing with Roger.

    It truly is the end of days...
    That reprogramming you got sent for clearly hasn't gone well....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Farage in the cabinet is a long way off - that gift is one from the PM, we have one and if he steps down there needs to be a leadership election in the Conservative party.

  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897

    Pauly said:

    FF43 said:

    Pauly said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.

    See the UKIP poster...

    QED
    I think the photo on the UKIP poster is a column of Syrian refugees, which isn't actually a problem that will be addressed by leaving the EU.

    But who needs logic?
    They won't be able to come here on mass if Germany or another country decides to give them EU passports Willy nilly.
    I thought about that. But a) That possible situation is down the line - the immediate problem is of refugees and b) They would be German by that point. I don't think Leave are proposing an immigration policy based on racial stereotyping.

    But, heck, that poster isn't there to stimulate reasoned discussion. It's there to play on base fears.
    Your first point a) is dangerous short-term-ism and b) the poster is clearly referring to the fact that if we vote remain the fact that they're German is irrelevant because they can all come here.
    The poster is clearly playing on fears of all and any foreigners, particularly the middle-eastern looking ones pictured.
    No it is a depiction of an actual event whereby thousands of people walked into Europe without being registered or otherwise. It was a dangerous extreme left moment of open border anarchism from Merkel and friends.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't understand why Remain is still favourite.

    Wishful thinking? Denial?
    I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit

    The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)

    All of that is possible, but it depends on higher wages which is hard to achieve within a system which has an essentially unlimited poll of unskilled workers. Switzerland has proved you can have a society with low taxation, decent public services and high wages.

    If we end up with a Swiss-style relationship with the EU then millions of voters who were promised substantially lower immigration are going to be furious.

    Switzerland have pulled their emergency brake, and much like Lichtenstein it looks like the EU will end up caving and just let it continue indefinitely.

    Have they? When did that happen?

    They had a referendum on it a couple of years ago which the SVP won very narrowly. The EU has continued as normal with Switzerland's single market status while they have introduced restrictions on EU migrants. The EU are just waiting for this referendum to be over before they use the Lichtenstein solution and just let the emergency brake continue indefinitely or until migration pressures reduce to a level where Switzerland decided to rescind it.

    What restrictions have they introduced? My understanding is that they have actually done very little out of concern for putting access to the single market at risk.

    Some unskilled migrants are being rejected, and unrestricted right to resettle has been rescinded.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Surely not?

    I thought this was 'impossible'.
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    TudorRose said:

    Pauly said:

    I'm trying not to BeLeave just in case I get crushingly disappointed on the 23rd.

    I agree. I have been wanting this and working towards it for for 30 years and can hardly quite believe it might finally happen. I won't believe it until 24th.
    When exactly will we know the outcome?
    Is there a link to the timetable of counting and reporting?
    PM (radio programme) yesterday suggested that the BBC won't make a prediction before 5am depending on how close it is, but the 'official result' is due at 'Breakfast time'. Apparently votes are announced locally and then regionally before the national result from Manchester.
    There are 12 regions. I suspect they will announce the NW England regional result last, which will tell us the national result.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    He could have exited with dignity instead of exiting through public ridicule. He will be mocked over this for the rest of his life. It will also be well deserved.

    Just like Hague was mocked for warning about the Euro, I suppose?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    midwinter said:

    Pong said:

    That's a horrible poster.

    Horribly effective I fear.
    Effective but disgusting. Surely the ends don't always justify the means. Funny isn't it that the closer we get to next Thursday that a lot of Leaves real motivation becomes apparent as the smoke and mirrors fade away. It's not attractive. Looks like a march past.
    "Looks like a march past."

    Well said.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Bloody needs to be one. Pronto.
    Tusk needs to be careful not to write cheques the EU parliament and the ECJ won't cash. But I'm intrigued to hear what he has to say, if anything.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240
    Brom said:

    Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick
    Farage friend says he's been approached by Boris camp about job in Johnson govt & place in Lords to avoid fighting possible Thanet by-elect

    This is truly terrifying. An out-an-out bigot will be in the British cabinet within weeks.

    A huge realignment of politics is in the air if we vote Leave. Surely moderate Tories have to join forces with moderate Labour and stop this insanity?

    Given Crick's dislike for UKIP and given he hasn't named a source and given Channel 4 News is widely ignored when it comes to covering anything outside of the liberal bubble I'd say this is less terrifying and more 'completely unsubstantiated'
    I very much doubt that Farage would be a offered a post in the Cabinet.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MTimT said:

    Out of interest, who would you vote for in that circumstance? Sounds like your only option is abstain.

    I live in one of the safest Tory seats in the Country. I would vote against the Tory candidate.
  • Re: Donald Tusk twitter tatement. That's 1 out of 5, when do we get the other 4 Presidents to have a full house?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663

    He could have exited with dignity instead of exiting through public ridicule. He will be mocked over this for the rest of his life. It will also be well deserved.

    Just like Hague was mocked for warning about the Euro, I suppose?
    More like Major and the ERM.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872
    edited June 2016

    The nasty side of the Guardian, misquoting an elderly man.
    http://order-order.com/2016/06/16/how-remainers-stitched-up-goves-elderly-father/

    To their credit, the Guardian posted the full transcript of the interview here. Doesn't seem that bad to me, but decide for yourself : http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/15/eu-referendum-live-osborne-punishment-budget-farage-flotilla-thames?page=with:block-5761aa3ee4b04ceead988c83#block-5761aa3ee4b04ceead988c83
    Politician tells 'story' about his dad's business being closed by the EU and the CFP.
    Politician parades dad in front of tv cameras to back up 'story'.
    Paper phones dad and reproduces verbatim his his words, suggesting that business closed before implimentation of CFP quotas.
    Politician goes off on one about exploiting sick, old dad.

    Perhaps politician shouldn't have exploited sick, old dad in the first place.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,871

    Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick
    Farage friend says he's been approached by Boris camp about job in Johnson govt & place in Lords to avoid fighting possible Thanet by-elect

    This is truly terrifying. An out-an-out bigot will be in the British cabinet within weeks.

    A huge realignment of politics is in the air if we vote Leave. Surely moderate Tories have to join forces with moderate Labour and stop this insanity?

    A realignment is entirely feasible. But less of the "moderate".

    From Labour's perspective who are the "moderates". The people despairing that their voters are voting for bigotry and racism. The people who abstained on welfare cuts to the poorest. The people who think the best alternative to Tory privatisation and marketisation is Labour privatisation and marketisation.

    When you are that far removed from your own party membership and more importantly the electorate you are not "moderate".

    A new One Nation party with Cameron Clegg and Blair aficionados all on board. A marvellous prospect for all of us who want to see a return to proper Tory and Labour parties.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    Given that Remain are going to lose, I'd prefer they did it with a little dignity. Geldof yesterday was a fucking disgrace. I can also imagine we are going to get a lot of hand-wringing articles in the Guardian. Remain just have to accept that leave have had the most powerful argument to win this vote - the promise of a substantial reduction in immigration.

    The focus now needs to be on delivery of that and also of all the other stuff that has been promised.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,280
    PlatoSaid said:

    Golly, Carney has gone off the deep end according to Sky.

    I think those Leaver MPs who think it is clever to undermine the Governor of the Bank of England when we will need him to help calm the markets in the event of a Leave vote need their heads examining. Britons are entitled to vote Leave but the BoE has a job to do to ensure that the immediate consequences are handled calmly and with as little disruption as possible. Pissing off the people charged with that job is a sign of political immaturity and seriously makes me wonder whether I would wish to entrust my country to people with such poor judgment, frankly.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited June 2016

    QT panel could be feisty:
    "David Dimbleby presents topical debate from York. On the panel are musician and Remain campaigner Bob Geldof, Labour's former home secretary Alan Johnson MP, Conservative education secretary Nicky Morgan MP, economist Ruth Lea, Leave campaigner and former Labour minister Tom Harris and the novelist and former Conservative MP Louise Mensch."

    Well I won't be watching that. It will be "Givvvve us your f##kin money" screaming and shouting like Eddie Izzard last week.

    I really really really wish QT would drop this BS of putting celebs on the panel. The most sensible member of that panel and one that I would like to hear speak, Ruth Lea, will do well to get an word in edge ways.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Pulpstar said:

    The EU's attitude toward the UK should NOT depend on where Brexit is in the polling.

    It clearly does.
    It depends on how badly they perceive they will get burned.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240
    Scott_P said:

    MTimT said:

    Out of interest, who would you vote for in that circumstance? Sounds like your only option is abstain.

    I live in one of the safest Tory seats in the Country. I would vote against the Tory candidate.
    For UKIP?
  • MTimT said:

    Scott_P said:

    felix said:

    I would not vote for a Tory party represented by the Leave campaign or their outriders on here. And that would be a first for me.

    Yup
    Out of interest, who would you vote for in that circumstance? Sounds like your only option is abstain.
    What would Scott_Pasty do with his life with nowt to paste about on here? Work?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535

    QT panel could be feisty:
    "David Dimbleby presents topical debate from York. On the panel are musician and Remain campaigner Bob Geldof, Labour's former home secretary Alan Johnson MP, Conservative education secretary Nicky Morgan MP, economist Ruth Lea, Leave campaigner and former Labour minister Tom Harris and the novelist and former Conservative MP Louise Mensch."

    Well I won't be watching that. It will be "Givvvve us your f##kin money" screaming and shouting like Eddie Izzard last week.

    I really really really wish QT would drop this BS of putting celebs on the panel. The most sensible member of that panel and one that I would like to hear speak, Ruth Lea, will do well to get an word in edge ways.
    Final outing for Nicky Morgan though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,440
    Cyclefree said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Golly, Carney has gone off the deep end according to Sky.

    I think those Leaver MPs who think it is clever to undermine the Governor of the Bank of England when we will need him to help calm the markets in the event of a Leave vote need their heads examining. Britons are entitled to vote Leave but the BoE has a job to do to ensure that the immediate consequences are handled calmly and with as little disruption as possible. Pissing off the people charged with that job is a sign of political immaturity and seriously makes me wonder whether I would wish to entrust my country to people with such poor judgment, frankly.

    Have you decided who you are voting for?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    He could have exited with dignity instead of exiting through public ridicule. He will be mocked over this for the rest of his life. It will also be well deserved.

    Just like Hague was mocked for warning about the Euro, I suppose?
    Hague was the first UK politician to take anti-EU demagoguery into the mainstream. He'll deserve his share of the blame if we vote to Leave next week.
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    If momentum is considered significant, that 10% swing to Leave is massive. Just think about what is happening here.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Ah, the forked tongue of the EU bureaucracy.

    Buy their bullshit? A man would be better off buying magic beans.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663
    Cyclefree said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Golly, Carney has gone off the deep end according to Sky.

    I think those Leaver MPs who think it is clever to undermine the Governor of the Bank of England when we will need him to help calm the markets in the event of a Leave vote need their heads examining. Britons are entitled to vote Leave but the BoE has a job to do to ensure that the immediate consequences are handled calmly and with as little disruption as possible. Pissing off the people charged with that job is a sign of political immaturity and seriously makes me wonder whether I would wish to entrust my country to people with such poor judgment, frankly.

    Carney has a vote as well, as a citizen of the commonwealth.

    Either way, we are in purdah and it would be improper for Carney to make any statements on the subject, he will have to wait until after the 23rd.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    chestnut said:

    Surely not?

    I thought this was 'impossible'.
    No - he is saying that if we vote REMAIN the EU will have the shackles on us faster than you can say Frau Merkel.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Mr. Urquhart, I rarely watch QT anymore anyway, but must agree.

    I think some celebrities would be quite good (intelligent ones) but the handwringing nonsense of people who think their fame makes them worth listening to on political matters is not pleasing.

    Izzard going on about humanity as if we're going to start stoning homosexuals and sending children up chimneys if we leave was simply pathetic.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sean_F said:

    For UKIP?

    Hell no
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Cyclefree said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Golly, Carney has gone off the deep end according to Sky.

    I think those Leaver MPs who think it is clever to undermine the Governor of the Bank of England when we will need him to help calm the markets in the event of a Leave vote need their heads examining. Britons are entitled to vote Leave but the BoE has a job to do to ensure that the immediate consequences are handled calmly and with as little disruption as possible. Pissing off the people charged with that job is a sign of political immaturity and seriously makes me wonder whether I would wish to entrust my country to people with such poor judgment, frankly.

    I completely agree. If Carney had endorsed Osborne's tragic budget that would be one thing. He's behaved with complete propriety and simply performed his statutory duties. Jenkins is an idiot.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    A question for PBers on free movement after a leave vote:

    I currently live in France, but will be moving back to the UK for a year between late 2016/2017. After that year I would be intending to move back to France.

    How would leaving affect my plans here? assuming we follow the article 50 route the earliest we would leave is 2018 so I should be able to move back without an issue, but I could be kicked out once we leave as I will only have moved back after a brexit vote, so will those acquired rights still count (if they ever were to count at all)?

    It's completely impossible to say for sure, since it depends entirely on the agreement reached with the EU. You won't have 'acquired rights' unless the French decide to grant them (the Vienna Convention, which Leavers quote in their ignorance, refers to the rights of states, not individuals, and in any case France didn't sign it).

    In practice, I'd expect the UK and other EU countries to grant each other's citizens reciprocal rights of residence, but probably involving more bureaucracy and not automatically as of right. Also your healthcare costs might become much more expensive.

    See here:

    http://www.connexionfrance.com/Vienna-Convention-1969-expats-rights-residence-Brexit-17867-view-article.html
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558

    He could have exited with dignity instead of exiting through public ridicule. He will be mocked over this for the rest of his life. It will also be well deserved.

    Just like Hague was mocked for warning about the Euro, I suppose?
    Hague was the first UK politician to take anti-EU demagoguery into the mainstream. He'll deserve his share of the blame if we vote to Leave next week.
    For saying what the people think.

    Jeez, the EU luvvies really don't get democracy.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    MaxPB said:

    More like Major and the ERM.

    Yes, and Lawson and Lamont.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Mr. Max, could be wrong but I believe we're scheduled for pre-vote pronouncements from the IMF and Carney.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    edited June 2016
    Quick question for the Conservative Remainers. Put yourself forward a week after Britain has decided for better or worse to vote "Brexit".

    If you were armed with this foresight back in 2015 (Of course noone is - but that isn't the question), would you have prefferred a Labour lead Ed Miliband Gov't back in May 2015.

    Genuine question.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    Have these people not heard of internet betting?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick
    Farage friend says he's been approached by Boris camp about job in Johnson govt & place in Lords to avoid fighting possible Thanet by-elect

    This is truly terrifying. An out-an-out bigot will be in the British cabinet within weeks.

    A huge realignment of politics is in the air if we vote Leave. Surely moderate Tories have to join forces with moderate Labour and stop this insanity?

    A realignment is entirely feasible. But less of the "moderate".

    From Labour's perspective who are the "moderates". The people despairing that their voters are voting for bigotry and racism. The people who abstained on welfare cuts to the poorest. The people who think the best alternative to Tory privatisation and marketisation is Labour privatisation and marketisation.

    When you are that far removed from your own party membership and more importantly the electorate you are not "moderate".

    A new One Nation party with Cameron Clegg and Blair aficionados all on board. A marvellous prospect for all of us who want to see a return to proper Tory and Labour parties.
    Well moderate as in the centre ground. Normal, sensible people who care about their families and the economy of their countries and look out into the world, and are not part of a weird coalition of bitter socialist isolationists and rightwing golf club boors.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Pauly said:

    Pauly said:

    FF43 said:

    Pauly said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.

    See the UKIP poster...

    QED
    I think the photo on the UKIP poster is a column of Syrian refugees, which isn't actually a problem that will be addressed by leaving the EU.

    But who needs logic?
    They won't be able to come here on mass if Germany or another country decides to give them EU passports Willy nilly.
    I thought about that. But a) That possible situation is down the line - the immediate problem is of refugees and b) They would be German by that point. I don't think Leave are proposing an immigration policy based on racial stereotyping.

    But, heck, that poster isn't there to stimulate reasoned discussion. It's there to play on base fears.
    Your first point a) is dangerous short-term-ism and b) the poster is clearly referring to the fact that if we vote remain the fact that they're German is irrelevant because they can all come here.
    The poster is clearly playing on fears of all and any foreigners, particularly the middle-eastern looking ones pictured.
    No it is a depiction of an actual event whereby thousands of people walked into Europe without being registered or otherwise. It was a dangerous extreme left moment of open border anarchism from Merkel and friends.
    The poster is not designed with this level of complex intention, and it doesn't anticipate that level of complex recognition in response. The message is simple.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Scott_P said:

    geoffw said:

    What has he said?

    @business: BOE Governor Mark Carney hits back after Leave campaign accuses him of opposing #Brexit https://t.co/EsHjmtWWtI https://t.co/uKa4G7jGuh

    In the future, I would be grateful if you would do me and my fellow independent committee members the courtesy of consulting the public record before writing letters such as that which I received on Monday.


    http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/news/2016/governorletter140616.pdf
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535

    Have these people not heard of internet betting?
    Beyond brave.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    ANECDOTE THINGY ALERT

    My agent, who was very much on the fence, and possibly swinging to LEAVE, has plumped for REMAiN on the grounds that her husband will go bust with LEAVE and she'll "have to live in a semi in Watford"

    I reckon the Worried Professionals will still swing this for REMAIN.

    The horror of it...Watford of all places....at least it isn't Luton I guess...No wonder so many people think metro elite are out of touch.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    What UKinEU settlement?

    I thought Cameron's EU negotiations had already been decided?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    QT panel could be feisty:
    "David Dimbleby presents topical debate from York. On the panel are musician and Remain campaigner Bob Geldof, Labour's former home secretary Alan Johnson MP, Conservative education secretary Nicky Morgan MP, economist Ruth Lea, Leave campaigner and former Labour minister Tom Harris and the novelist and former Conservative MP Louise Mensch."

    Well I won't be watching that. It will be "Givvvve us your f##kin money" screaming and shouting like Eddie Izzard last week.

    I really really really wish QT would drop this BS of putting celebs on the panel. The most sensible member of that panel and one that I would like to hear speak, Ruth Lea, will do well to get an word in edge ways.
    Final outing for Nicky Morgan though.
    I think she's out of the cabinet regardless of the outcome. And she can thank Osborne for that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    £35k bet on Remain

    The only hope I'm clinging to is that we'll see one of the biggest ever swingbacks on the day.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,871
    A basic summary of why the polls have swung so heavily towards Leave


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwMVMbmQBug
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Estobar said:

    If momentum is considered significant, that 10% swing to Leave is massive. Just think about what is happening here.

    Polling groupthink? We've seen it before....
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,673
    Scott_P said:

    geoffw said:

    What has he said?

    @business: BOE Governor Mark Carney hits back after Leave campaign accuses him of opposing #Brexit https://t.co/EsHjmtWWtI https://t.co/uKa4G7jGuh
    I think we can add Carney to the list of those whom Leave will hunt down after their win next week. Leave are sounding vengeful. I also suspect that Farage will defect to the Tories and be given a by-election in a safe seat once the incumbent has been ousted. Surely Tatton or Witney - the brutal symbolism of Tory pro-europeanism utterly crushed will be too tempting to resist.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    MaxPB said:



    They had a referendum on it a couple of years ago which the SVP won very narrowly. The EU has continued as normal with Switzerland's single market status while they have introduced restrictions on EU migrants. The EU are just waiting for this referendum to be over before they use the Lichtenstein solution and just let the emergency brake continue indefinitely or until migration pressures reduce to a level where Switzerland decided to rescind it.

    What restrictions have they introduced? My understanding is that they have actually done very little out of concern for putting access to the single market at risk.

    It's complicated. Liechtenstein and Iceland are in the EEA; Switzerland isn't in the EEA but has a separate bilateral arrangement.

    Liechtenstein negotiated a partial opt out of the key EEA freedom of movement principle, where EEA citizens are allowed to work in the principality but (mostly) not to live there. As the liveable, non-mountainous area of Liechtenstein is about the size of the postage stamps they flog, that's understandable. It was supposed to be a temporary arrangement but seems to have become permanent, as these things do.

    Switzerland held a referendum in 2014 to restrict EU immigration into the country in contravention of the bilateral agreements. This move has been rejected by the EU, but is supposed to come in unilaterally next year, per the referendum question. It's an ongoing dispute.

    Iceland pulled the emergency brake on freedom of movement - the article in the EEA treaty that Max refers to - in 2008 along with capital controls etc. In principle this is still a temporary measure.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    ANECDOTE THINGY ALERT

    My agent, who was very much on the fence, and possibly swinging to LEAVE, has plumped for REMAiN on the grounds that her husband will go bust with LEAVE and she'll "have to live in a semi in Watford"

    I reckon the Worried Professionals will still swing this for REMAIN.

    How on earth do you manage to arrange your finances in order to go bust on a "leave" vote ?!

    It may well cost me a few quid but does the whole of London have 5% equity mortgages or some such ?
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Pulpstar said:

    Quick question for the Conservative Remainers. Put yourself forward a week after Britain has decided for better or worse to vote "Brexit".

    If you were armed with this foresight back in 2015 (Of course noone is - but that isn't the question), would you have prefferred a Labour lead Ed Miliband Gov't back in May 2015.

    Genuine question.

    No, another coalition would have kept the maniacs in their caves.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Brom said:

    Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick
    Farage friend says he's been approached by Boris camp about job in Johnson govt & place in Lords to avoid fighting possible Thanet by-elect

    This is truly terrifying. An out-an-out bigot will be in the British cabinet within weeks.

    A huge realignment of politics is in the air if we vote Leave. Surely moderate Tories have to join forces with moderate Labour and stop this insanity?

    Given Crick's dislike for UKIP and given he hasn't named a source and given Channel 4 News is widely ignored when it comes to covering anything outside of the liberal bubble I'd say this is less terrifying and more 'completely unsubstantiated'
    Hasn't Farage dismissed this already on Twitter. Old news . . .
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Pulpstar said:

    Quick question for the Conservative Remainers. Put yourself forward a week after Britain has decided for better or worse to vote "Brexit".

    If you were armed with this foresight back in 2015 (Of course noone is - but that isn't the question), would you have prefferred a Labour lead Ed Miliband Gov't back in May 2015.

    Genuine question.

    No. This referendum had to happen sometime.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240

    He could have exited with dignity instead of exiting through public ridicule. He will be mocked over this for the rest of his life. It will also be well deserved.

    Just like Hague was mocked for warning about the Euro, I suppose?
    Hague was the first UK politician to take anti-EU demagoguery into the mainstream. He'll deserve his share of the blame if we vote to Leave next week.
    Perhaps he was prescient?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,344

    He could have exited with dignity instead of exiting through public ridicule. He will be mocked over this for the rest of his life. It will also be well deserved.

    Just like Hague was mocked for warning about the Euro, I suppose?
    Hague was the first UK politician to take anti-EU demagoguery into the mainstream. He'll deserve his share of the blame if we vote to Leave next week.
    So you think he was wrong to warn about the Euro then. Hmm. You seem to have been asleep for the last 6 or 7 years as the Eurozone has lurched from one crisis to another.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Mr. Evershed, the deal's agreed but not implemented.

    We could vote Remain, and the EU could still veto the deal (think it has to go through the Parliament).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited June 2016

    What UKinEU settlement? What can he offer though. Restrictions on free movement isn't going to fly, so what else, free owls for every UK citizen?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    John_M said:

    Cyclefree said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Golly, Carney has gone off the deep end according to Sky.

    I think those Leaver MPs who think it is clever to undermine the Governor of the Bank of England when we will need him to help calm the markets in the event of a Leave vote need their heads examining. Britons are entitled to vote Leave but the BoE has a job to do to ensure that the immediate consequences are handled calmly and with as little disruption as possible. Pissing off the people charged with that job is a sign of political immaturity and seriously makes me wonder whether I would wish to entrust my country to people with such poor judgment, frankly.

    I completely agree. If Carney had endorsed Osborne's tragic budget that would be one thing. He's behaved with complete propriety and simply performed his statutory duties. Jenkins is an idiot.
    He's a very naughty boy and has been given a public spanking.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    TudorRose said:

    QT panel could be feisty:
    "David Dimbleby presents topical debate from York. On the panel are musician and Remain campaigner Bob Geldof, Labour's former home secretary Alan Johnson MP, Conservative education secretary Nicky Morgan MP, economist Ruth Lea, Leave campaigner and former Labour minister Tom Harris and the novelist and former Conservative MP Louise Mensch."

    Well I won't be watching that. It will be "Givvvve us your f##kin money" screaming and shouting like Eddie Izzard last week.

    I really really really wish QT would drop this BS of putting celebs on the panel. The most sensible member of that panel and one that I would like to hear speak, Ruth Lea, will do well to get an word in edge ways.
    Final outing for Nicky Morgan though.
    I think she's out of the cabinet regardless of the outcome. And she can thank Osborne for that.
    Yep. Gone whatever happens.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772


    What UKinEU settlement? What can he offer though. Restrictions on free movement isn't going to fly, so what else, free owls for every UK citizen?
    It's time for the #EUstone!!!
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,908

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    felix said:

    I would not vote for a Tory party represented by the Leave campaign or their outriders on here. And that would be a first for me.

    Yup
    I saw talk of Farage rejoining the Tory Party/becoming a minister in a BoJo government.

    The day that happens, is the day I walk out of the Tory party.
    Same here. Farage has no place in the party, and I'm hoping that it was just another idiot "friend of Nigel" talking bullshit as they always do.
    Imagine if he brings Reckless with him...
    Stop depressing me you git.

    Brexit already means me having to spend about six weeks in France, Reckless and Farage joining the Tory party would be the cherry on the parfait.
    OK, I get it Momentum takes over the Labour Party and UKIP takes over the Tory Party. Big gap in the centre for 'One Nation Social Democrat' party.
    I shall be forming the Plantagenet Party
    Those guys really did know how to fight each other.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535

    SeanT said:

    ANECDOTE THINGY ALERT

    My agent, who was very much on the fence, and possibly swinging to LEAVE, has plumped for REMAiN on the grounds that her husband will go bust with LEAVE and she'll "have to live in a semi in Watford"

    I reckon the Worried Professionals will still swing this for REMAIN.

    The horror of it...Watford of all places....at least it isn't Luton I guess...No wonder so many people think metro elite are out of touch.
    Are there enough "worried professionals" to swing back against the tide of anger that Farage and Boris have whipped up with their lies?
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,379
    edited June 2016
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:



    The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)

    All of that is possible, but it depends on higher wages which is hard to achieve within a system which has an essentially unlimited poll of unskilled workers. Switzerland has proved you can have a society with low taxation, decent public services and high wages.

    If we end up with a Swiss-style relationship with the EU then millions of voters who were promised substantially lower immigration are going to be furious.

    Switzerland have pulled their emergency brake, and much like Lichtenstein it looks like the EU will end up caving and just let it continue indefinitely.

    Have they? When did that happen?

    They had a referendum on it a couple of years ago which the SVP won very narrowly. The EU has continued as normal with Switzerland's single market status while they have introduced restrictions on EU migrants. The EU are just waiting for this referendum to be over before they use the Lichtenstein solution and just let the emergency brake continue indefinitely or until migration pressures reduce to a level where Switzerland decided to rescind it.

    What restrictions have they introduced? My understanding is that they have actually done very little out of concern for putting access to the single market at risk.

    Some unskilled migrants are being rejected, and unrestricted right to resettle has been rescinded.
    According to this:

    Swiss announce unilateral safeguard clause to curb immigration

    the Swiss were still at loggerheads with the EU over freedom of movement in March 2016 and hadn't yet implemented anything. Has this actually changed yet? Where have you heard about unskilled migrants are being rejected?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    edited June 2016

    He could have exited with dignity instead of exiting through public ridicule. He will be mocked over this for the rest of his life. It will also be well deserved.

    Just like Hague was mocked for warning about the Euro, I suppose?
    Hague was the first UK politician to take anti-EU demagoguery into the mainstream. He'll deserve his share of the blame if we vote to Leave next week.
    So you think he was wrong to warn about the Euro then. Hmm. You seem to have been asleep for the last 6 or 7 years as the Eurozone has lurched from one crisis to another.
    He was wrong to go around shouting 'Save the Pound'. He helped debase the argument on Europe because he had nothing to offer the public on anything they cared about in 2001.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,440

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    felix said:

    I would not vote for a Tory party represented by the Leave campaign or their outriders on here. And that would be a first for me.

    Yup
    I saw talk of Farage rejoining the Tory Party/becoming a minister in a BoJo government.

    The day that happens, is the day I walk out of the Tory party.
    Same here. Farage has no place in the party, and I'm hoping that it was just another idiot "friend of Nigel" talking bullshit as they always do.
    Imagine if he brings Reckless with him...
    Stop depressing me you git.

    Brexit already means me having to spend about six weeks in France, Reckless and Farage joining the Tory party would be the cherry on the parfait.
    OK, I get it Momentum takes over the Labour Party and UKIP takes over the Tory Party. Big gap in the centre for 'One Nation Social Democrat' party.
    I shall be forming the Plantagenet Party
    Those guys really did know how to fight each other.
    The House of York resurgent, and we'll take back our rightful lands in France.

    VOTE WINNER
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