It is quite an extraordinary hostage to fortune plugged by many on here too. For the sake of the country one hopes they're right - it just sounds like one huge bucketful of wishful thinking. One thing however I do suspect - I'm not sure the right will win the next GE - and I fear even more - a Labour post-Brexit government.
It has been mentioned here already, but a serious political realignment must be considered.
If the Economic Reality Tories cleave from the Faragists, many Blairites might find themselves more comfortable with them than the Corbynistas
PS I know the labels I use upset some people, but they are descriptive and unambiguous until new names emerge
I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit
The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)
All of that is possible, but it depends on higher wages which is hard to achieve within a system which has an essentially unlimited poll of unskilled workers. Switzerland has proved you can have a society with low taxation, decent public services and high wages.
If we end up with a Swiss-style relationship with the EU then millions of voters who were promised substantially lower immigration are going to be furious.
Sturgeon won't be planning a second Indyref if this poll turns out to be accurate. I'd say she needs at least 55-45 in Scotland for Remain to dare go for it, as it would really be a "bet the farm" gamble for the SNP.
SUBSAMPLE KLAXON.
DO NOT BACK BREXIT IN SCOTLAND OFF THE BACK OF THAT ARTICLE.
No no no, absolutely back them. I've give you 2/1.
Sturgeon won't be planning a second Indyref if this poll turns out to be accurate. I'd say she needs at least 55-45 in Scotland for Remain to dare go for it, as it would really be a "bet the farm" gamble for the SNP.
SUBSAMPLE KLAXON.
DO NOT BACK BREXIT IN SCOTLAND OFF THE BACK OF THAT ARTICLE.
I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit
The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)
It is quite an extraordinary hostage to fortune plugged by many on here too. For the sake of the country one hopes they're right - it just sounds like one huge bucketful of wishful thinking. One thing however I do suspect - I'm not sure the right will win the next GE - and I fear even more - a Labour post-Brexit government.
It has been mentioned here already, but a serious political realignment must be considered.
If the Economic Reality Tories cleave from the Faragists, many Blairites might find themselves more comfortable with them than the Corbynistas
PS I know the labels I use upset some people, but they are descriptive and unambiguous until new names emerge
I would not vote for a Tory party represented by the Leave campaign or their outriders on here. And that would be a first for me.
Sturgeon won't be planning a second Indyref if this poll turns out to be accurate. I'd say she needs at least 55-45 in Scotland for Remain to dare go for it, as it would really be a "bet the farm" gamble for the SNP.
SUBSAMPLE KLAXON.
DO NOT BACK BREXIT IN SCOTLAND OFF THE BACK OF THAT ARTICLE.
Don't ever drink from the sub-sample cup!!!
I based my Wales switcharoo off of subsamples. But lots of them, not just 1 tiny 1 !
I have been convinced from the start that Leave would win - few have more of an emotional connection with the EU than with the arguments offered by Leave.
My anecdote from last night was that friends on Fb who don't do politics have started to realise the inevitable. This has widened today - mostly AB bankers suggesting financial implications, followed by some insult to Leavers. Utterly hilarious.
If we get QE post-Brexit vote - as many think is likely - then the bankers will be delighted.
The pound will take a battering and the city would be facing a serious crisis. Of course a post-Brexit government might try and do a deal on free movement to protect the city but it could create outrage.
I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit
The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)
All of that is possible, but it depends on higher wages which is hard to achieve within a system which has an essentially unlimited poll of unskilled workers. Switzerland has proved you can have a society with low taxation, decent public services and high wages.
If we end up with a Swiss-style relationship with the EU then millions of voters who were promised substantially lower immigration are going to be furious.
Perhaps, we will actually take a global approach instead of fixating on 27 countries, many in decline and half of whom do not make our top 50 global trading partners.
I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative.
Oh yeah, sure it's not all over bar the shouting but after so many polls putting LEAVE ahead clearly the betting markets are not reflecting the evidence.
Agree with your comments about the post referendum period. Whatever happens we'll need a period of reconciliation and reflection to digest what the voters have said.
I have been convinced from the start that Leave would win - few have more of an emotional connection with the EU than with the arguments offered by Leave.
My anecdote from last night was that friends on Fb who don't do politics have started to realise the inevitable. This has widened today - mostly AB bankers suggesting financial implications, followed by some insult to Leavers. Utterly hilarious.
If we get QE post-Brexit vote - as many think is likely - then the bankers will be delighted.
Surely we won't need QE if the pound falls as much as everyone tells us it will.
I feel even more convinced that Osborne won't last the year. Michael Howard who gave George Osborne his big political break has written 'yesterday saw the threat of an emergency budget - which was nothing more than ludicrous scaremongering born of desperation. No responsible Chancellor would seriously propose any such thing.'
In an excellent post for the new www.reaction.life website, Iain Martin agrees 'George Osborne will be very lucky to survive more than a few months as Chancellor...it is difficult to see in practical terms how the Chancellor can carry on for long having lost the confidence of such a large part of the Conservative parliamentary party.' Full article is here http://reaction.life/osborne-looks-like-toast/
I now think it's 4/6 or 8/13 that Osborne will go this year. The 7/4 with Hills that Osborne will cease to be Chancellor in 2016 is stand out value.
So you are voting to put in place an even more right wing government than the one we have now that will do nothing to reduce immigration for a number of years, if it ever does, but will have the power to reduce trade union rights even further and make greater cuts to the public services that working people use every day. Makes sense to me.
We already have the most right wing government. They have vindictively kicked away support from the poor, sick and disabled. They have done nothing to bolster actual economic growth, have no industrial strategy (apart from shut it/sell it), and going off the Queens Speech have nothing really to do.
But I can vote them out. I can't vote out the European Commission. To quote the great Tony* “What power have you got? Where did you get it from? In whose interests do you exercise it? To whom are you accountable? And how can we get rid of you?” If you cannot get rid of the people who govern you, you do not live in a democratic system."
This is NOT about domestic politics. Nor will I find shelter from privatise everything free marketeers in an EU which enshrines privatisation and free markets for all in its DNA.
Osborne's threatened budget of tax rises and spending cuts was met with 57 Conservative MPs signing a letter opposing it in next to no time. The Chancellor is very much in the firing line for the Leave campaigners having made economic fears central to the campaign to say in the EU. There's a range of scenarios that I believe make an Osborne departure in 2016 better than 50:50 and the 7/4 should be taken.
Scenario 1. Remain wins comfortably in the end and both Cameron and Osborne unite the Tory benches and both stay in post for at least the rest of the year.
Scenario 2. Remain wins by a narrow margin and Tory civil war erupts. Cameron won't feel obliged to leave in 2016 but will be under pressure to go sooner than 2019/20. A reshuffle takes places and Osborne is moved to another role such as Foreign Secretary. This will possibly boost his future leadership chances and placate opponents.
Scenario 3. Leave wins and Cameron departs. A new leader is elected in 2016 and is compelled to appoint a new Chancellor.
Scenario 4. Leave wins, Cameron departs and Osborne somehow wins the leadership and therefore is no longer Chancellor.
Scenario 5. Leave wins and Cameron departs. A new leader is elected in 2016. Osborne didn't stand but is retained to provide some economic continuity.
Scenarios 1 and 5 don't appear to be particularly likely right now though can't be dismissed. While there will be other scenarios, the likelihood of Osborne leaving the role of Chancellor by the end of the year seems reasonably likely. If you agree with me that today's developments will rebound on Osborne then the chances of him going later this year look even greater and the prices with William Hill looks even better value. I'd say there is a 60% chance Osborne will leave his post this year and not a 36% chance which the odds imply.
O/T - It's the Tooting By-Election today - is this the most overshadowed, and least publicized Parliamentary By-Election ever?
Yup, the fact I've not done a thread on it in the past month says it all.
17k matched on Betfair for it, and 31m matched on the EURef.
Labour cakewalk. The new candidate is a non-Corbynite moderate called Khan, who also happens to be a pretty local doctor from St George's hospital. I expect Labour to increase their majority on a small turnout.
Labour remainers have been fine this EURef, Labour leavers outstanding (Hillary Benn, Gisela Stuart both spring to mind as good performers). Corbyn hasn't done too badly with the general public either, having the obvious sceptisicm alot of wavering remainers do about Europe and not the bullshitfest DC and GO have given.
Hillary Benn is for Remain. He is, to my knowledge, the only on either side who has told the truth about immigration: we have high immigration because it benefits our economy and it won't substantially change after a Leave vote.
Unfortunately for Mr Benn the twerp Eddie Izzard was also on the same Question Time at the same time.
Also it isn't a message anyone wants to hear.
It also masks the effect that while immigration may benefit the economy as a whole, for many individuals it does the exact opposite... And those individuals have an equal vote to those immigration has benefited.
In practice "rubbing the Right's nose in diversity" meant rubbing many Labour voters' noses in diversity.
I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit
The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)
A Labour manifesto by the look of it.
Indeed. It turns out that when Gove, Boris, Priti and co told us that there was no alternative to austerity they were telling lies. Whoever would have thought it?
An interesting thought from a Lib Dem. Cameron falls on his sword before the vote.
"It makes me think that David Cameron has one last card to play if Leave are still ahead in the final 48 hours before the poll: he can announce to the nation a few days before the referendum vote that after June 23rd, regardless of outcome, he will step down as prime minister." http://nicktyrone.com/camerons-last-ditch-move-keep-us-europe/
That would be piling stupidity on stupidity. I'm sure some people are voting to 'wipe the smile of their faces' as the advert enjoins us to do. There can't be that many, surely?
Most of the ex-Cameron fans are shaking their heads more in sorrow than in anger. For me, it's a bit like discovering your favourite child is being done for shoplifting. All that promise, all that reputation, squandered for a mess of EU pottage.
It would be a daft idea, and it wouldn't achieve anything.
I quite agree and I, like many Tory Remain supporters, are primarily voting that way on the back of his endorsement, against what our hearts are saying.
Cameron is streets ahead of any other leader the Tories could elect on everything (bar Europe apparently).
O/T - It's the Tooting By-Election today - is this the most overshadowed, and least publicized Parliamentary By-Election ever?
Yup, the fact I've not done a thread on it in the past month says it all.
17k matched on Betfair for it, and 31m matched on the EURef.
Labour cakewalk. The new candidate is a non-Corbynite moderate called Khan, who also happens to be a pretty local doctor from St George's hospital. I expect Labour to increase their majority on a small turnout.
Labour remainers have been fine this EURef, Labour leavers outstanding (Hillary Benn, Gisela Stuart both spring to mind as good performers). Corbyn hasn't done too badly with the general public either, having the obvious sceptisicm alot of wavering remainers do about Europe and not the bullshitfest DC and GO have given.
Hillary Benn is for Remain. He is, to my knowledge, the only on either side who has told the truth about immigration: we have high immigration because it benefits our economy and it won't substantially change after a Leave vote.
Unfortunately for Mr Benn the twerp Eddie Izzard was also on the same Question Time at the same time.
Also it isn't a message anyone wants to hear.
It also masks the effect that while immigration may benefit the economy as a whole, for many individuals it does the exact opposite... And those individuals have an equal vote to those immigration has benefited.
There are losers in that some of the immigrants directly displace a UK born worker. However everyone gets some benefit in form of a stronger economy, better welfare provision etc.
The main point, though, is that immigration is there for a reason and because of that, will not substantially diminish post-Brexit. Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.
James Forsyth @JGForsyth Remain’s problem in this referendum dates back to the renegotiation and the EU’s failure to engage on free movement http://bit.ly/21nXpO1
Indeed.
Two thoughts: one thing this referendum campaign has achieved is that it has forced the politicians to be honest about something they have avoided being honest about it i.e. immigration. If we vote to Remain, we will know that this means no controls on immigration from the EU (apart from the very limited ones contained in the Treaties). And, therefore, that if we want to control immigration at all, that control will have to be on non-EU immigration.
Unfortunately, the Leave camp has not I think (for the reasons I spelt out in my thread a few days ago) been equally honest about their ability to control immigration from the EU even after a Leave vote because that will depend on what deals we reach with the EU.
Also - and I may be bringing a whole heap of abuse on my head by saying this - it is possible to make a positive argument for free movement within the EU. It's just that the two main parties for various reasons are hobbled by their own internal demons from making those arguments.
I'm trying not to BeLeave just in case I get crushingly disappointed on the 23rd.
I agree. I have been wanting this and working towards it for for 30 years and can hardly quite believe it might finally happen. I won't believe it until 24th.
When exactly will we know the outcome? Is there a link to the timetable of counting and reporting?
Northern Ireland, Gib and expats ? Are we still clinging to this ?
Just how many votes do you think this is going to deliver ?
I've worked it out on the back of a fag packet, it's worth about 1.2% for Remain.
When the Leave lead is 2%, then it is significant.
Show us your working.
I have it barely a quarter of that.
I've got a forthcoming thread on that.
I'd be fascinated to see both your workings.
I expect a net remain lead of 75,000 in NI, 13,000 in Gib and 50,000 expats.
About 148000, on a turnout of ~31m. Maybe 0.5% at the outside.
I base this on turnout in NI being proportional with the last GE and unionist breaking 75% for leave, republicans 80% for remian, I've put turnout in Gib at 80% which may be too high with 90% remain, and assumed 120k expats registered (up from 106k last year), 100k of them voting breaking 75/25 remain.
As always, I stand open to education by correction.
I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit
The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)
All of that is possible, but it depends on higher wages which is hard to achieve within a system which has an essentially unlimited poll of unskilled workers. Switzerland has proved you can have a society with low taxation, decent public services and high wages.
If we end up with a Swiss-style relationship with the EU then millions of voters who were promised substantially lower immigration are going to be furious.
Perhaps, we will actually take a global approach instead of fixating on 27 countries, many in decline and half of whom do not make our top 50 global trading partners.
Oh - you mean by cutting EU immigration as low as non-EU immigration do you? Oh wait....
I have been convinced from the start that Leave would win - few have more of an emotional connection with the EU than with the arguments offered by Leave.
My anecdote from last night was that friends on Fb who don't do politics have started to realise the inevitable. This has widened today - mostly AB bankers suggesting financial implications, followed by some insult to Leavers. Utterly hilarious.
If we get QE post-Brexit vote - as many think is likely - then the bankers will be delighted.
The pound will take a battering and the city would be facing a serious crisis. Of course a post-Brexit government might try and do a deal on free movement to protect the city but it could create outrage.
They've pretty much admitted that in vote Leave - hence the howls of disappointment when the truth dawns.
I have been convinced from the start that Leave would win - few have more of an emotional connection with the EU than with the arguments offered by Leave.
My anecdote from last night was that friends on Fb who don't do politics have started to realise the inevitable. This has widened today - mostly AB bankers suggesting financial implications, followed by some insult to Leavers. Utterly hilarious.
If we get QE post-Brexit vote - as many think is likely - then the bankers will be delighted.
Surely we won't need QE if the pound falls as much as everyone tells us it will.
It's either that or interest rate rises - imagine the fun that would bring after years of low mortgage payments.
I would not vote for a Tory party represented by the Leave campaign or their outriders on here. And that would be a first for me.
Yup
This referendum has put me, Scott, Carlotta, Topping, Southam, Surbiton, Tyson, Richard N, Ally M (Antifrank) and HYFUD all on the same side. We argued like cats and dogs in years gone by.
On a REMAIN market pitch with the local Labour party (no, I’m not a member) this morning. Very positive response, great concern at the prospect of leaving. Market, in this small Essex town in Priti Patel’s constituency, is largely used by older people. Possibly slightly higher proportion of retired AB’s, though, than might be expected.
Quite a few people had already posted their postal votes though.
'Remain was always going to lose. Immigration control is just too potent a message to fight against. But there are going to be a huge number of very disillusioned, beaten up ordinary punters that will be absolutely furious at what is about to actually transpire. '
Can you change the record, you've been banging on about that every day for the past month,no need for the endless repetition.
An interesting thought from a Lib Dem. Cameron falls on his sword before the vote.
"It makes me think that David Cameron has one last card to play if Leave are still ahead in the final 48 hours before the poll: he can announce to the nation a few days before the referendum vote that after June 23rd, regardless of outcome, he will step down as prime minister." http://nicktyrone.com/camerons-last-ditch-move-keep-us-europe/
That would be piling stupidity on stupidity. I'm sure some people are voting to 'wipe the smile of their faces' as the advert enjoins us to do. There can't be that many, surely?
Most of the ex-Cameron fans are shaking their heads more in sorrow than in anger. For me, it's a bit like discovering your favourite child is being done for shoplifting. All that promise, all that reputation, squandered for a mess of EU pottage.
It would be a daft idea, and it wouldn't achieve anything.
I quite agree and I, like many Tory Remain supporters, are primarily voting that way on the back of his endorsement, against what our hearts are saying.
Cameron is streets ahead of any other leader the Tories could elect on everything (bar Europe apparently).
Cameron is behind on trust, not just trust in the EU, but all trust. Whatever emanates out of his mouth is less trusted than Boris and others.
Dec 2013 46,139,140 Dec 2014 45,325, 078 May 2015 46,420,413 Dec 2015 43,478,635.
Daily application to register rates in the first quarter of 2016 were running at way below 2015 rates. There has obviously been a surge in Q2, but last year only about 30% resulted in actual registrations.
It is also worth remembering that 3.3m people are EU citizens, the majority of whom are ineligible (Ireland, Malta, Cyprus excepted) to vote. The effect should be most profound in London.
It’s conceivable that less votes than the GE could still equate to higher turnout against the roll.
This referendum has put me, Scott, Carlotta, Topping, Southam, Surbiton, Tyson, Richard N, Ally M (Antifrank) and HYFUD all on the same side. We argued like cats and dogs in years gone by.
I have found I rather like the new consensus.
British Democratic Party anyone?
More concerning, I find myself agreeing with Roger.
O/T - I think there will be trouble at the football later. Unless the French police get a serious handle on it.
I was in Magaluf in 1998 when David Beckham got sent off and England lost on penalties. I was only 20, and the violence was extreme and frightening.
There were 20 of us out there (16 boys, 4 girls). Big, strong, fit young rugby players. We weren't particularly interested in the football because we are Welsh, but straight in front of our first floor balcony was a huge plaza where the game was on a big screen. So we congregated in my room and watched it.
One boy with us had a Welsh rugby shirt on and there was banter during the game. Across the plaza some Scots had Argentina tops on. When England were winning the banter was good fun.
Then they lost, and the atmosphere turned. It's no exaggeration to say we are lucky to be alive. My room was full of glass, chair legs, table legs, you name it. The plaza was demolished. The bars downstairs were smashed to smithereens. The security rang our room and told us to stay put but the fighting got so bad in our corridor that some English fans from South London ripped our room door clean off its hinges. They got in our room and it was mayhem because the police (luckily) were there within moments. One skinhead thug was beating-up a Guardia Civil cop with our door!
People were unconscious and bleeding everywhere you looked. There was an English fan unconscious in our room. A few of our boys went to hospital. I was stood there with nothing on my feet, covered in glass and blood just amazed at the scene.
Even one of our girls got beat up. What was amazing was after the Guardia Civil protected us and some families the English fans started beating each other up!
Absolutely frightening and completely unexpected. Closest I've ever been to death, I reckon.
Sturgeon won't be planning a second Indyref if this poll turns out to be accurate. I'd say she needs at least 55-45 in Scotland for Remain to dare go for it, as it would really be a "bet the farm" gamble for the SNP.
SUBSAMPLE KLAXON.
DO NOT BACK BREXIT IN SCOTLAND OFF THE BACK OF THAT ARTICLE.
Don't ever drink from the sub-sample cup!!!
The holy subsample McGrail is a cruel and wicked mistress, and no good will come to any man who sups from her golden rim.
I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit
The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)
All of that is possible, but it depends on higher wages which is hard to achieve within a system which has an essentially unlimited poll of unskilled workers. Switzerland has proved you can have a society with low taxation, decent public services and high wages.
If we end up with a Swiss-style relationship with the EU then millions of voters who were promised substantially lower immigration are going to be furious.
Switzerland have pulled their emergency brake, and much like Lichtenstein it looks like the EU will end up caving and just let it continue indefinitely.
I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit
The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)
All of that is possible, but it depends on higher wages which is hard to achieve within a system which has an essentially unlimited poll of unskilled workers. Switzerland has proved you can have a society with low taxation, decent public services and high wages.
If we end up with a Swiss-style relationship with the EU then millions of voters who were promised substantially lower immigration are going to be furious.
Perhaps, we will actually take a global approach instead of fixating on 27 countries, many in decline and half of whom do not make our top 50 global trading partners.
That's irrelevant to the immigration problem though which is the source of a lot of Leaves support and also what theit campaign is based on. Nigel isn't going to be happy.
An interesting thought from a Lib Dem. Cameron falls on his sword before the vote.
"It makes me think that David Cameron has one last card to play if Leave are still ahead in the final 48 hours before the poll: he can announce to the nation a few days before the referendum vote that after June 23rd, regardless of outcome, he will step down as prime minister." http://nicktyrone.com/camerons-last-ditch-move-keep-us-europe/
That would be piling stupidity on stupidity. I'm sure some people are voting to 'wipe the smile of their faces' as the advert enjoins us to do. There can't be that many, surely?
Most of the ex-Cameron fans are shaking their heads more in sorrow than in anger. For me, it's a bit like discovering your favourite child is being done for shoplifting. All that promise, all that reputation, squandered for a mess of EU pottage.
It would be a daft idea, and it wouldn't achieve anything.
I quite agree and I, like many Tory Remain supporters, are primarily voting that way on the back of his endorsement, against what our hearts are saying.
Cameron is streets ahead of any other leader the Tories could elect on everything (bar Europe apparently).
Agreed - he and Osborne brought the party from the brink of extinction to govt [albeit with a tiny majority]. The idiots on here now seem to think the country is ready to embrace Gove, IDS and Lord Farage in his place. not a chance.
They seem to be Syrian immigrants pictured. Both open Powellism and left and rightwing populism are now being thrown into the mix by the Leave campaign. It's almost too strong to resist for the opposing camp, and is preparing the ground for that vast disappointment which has been discussed.
James Forsyth @JGForsyth Remain’s problem in this referendum dates back to the renegotiation and the EU’s failure to engage on free movement http://bit.ly/21nXpO1
Indeed.
Two thoughts: one thing this referendum campaign has achieved is that it has forced the politicians to be honest about something they have avoided being honest about it i.e. immigration. If we vote to Remain, we will know that this means no controls on immigration from the EU (apart from the very limited ones contained in the Treaties). And, therefore, that if we want to control immigration at all, that control will have to be on non-EU immigration.
Unfortunately, the Leave camp has not I think (for the reasons I spelt out in my thread a few days ago) been equally honest about their ability to control immigration from the EU even after a Leave vote because that will depend on what deals we reach with the EU.
Also - and I may be bringing a whole heap of abuse on my head by saying this - it is possible to make a positive argument for free movement within the EU. It's just that the two main parties for various reasons are hobbled by their own internal demons from making those arguments.
If we vote leave then I don't care how much free movement of people the EU has
I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit
The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)
A Labour manifesto by the look of it.
Indeed. It turns out that when Gove, Boris, Priti and co told us that there was no alternative to austerity they were telling lies. Whoever would have thought it?
Put the £26bn or so that is EU fees and overseas aid back on the table and budget decisions could have been/can be very different.
Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.
See the UKIP poster...
QED
I think the photo on the UKIP poster is a column of Syrian refugees somewhere on the continent, which isn't actually a problem that will be addressed by leaving the EU.
So you are voting to put in place an even more right wing government than the one we have now that will do nothing to reduce immigration for a number of years, if it ever does, but will have the power to reduce trade union rights even further and make greater cuts to the public services that working people use every day. Makes sense to me.
We already have the most right wing government. They have vindictively kicked away support from the poor, sick and disabled. They have done nothing to bolster actual economic growth, have no industrial strategy (apart from shut it/sell it), and going off the Queens Speech have nothing really to do.
But I can vote them out. I can't vote out the European Commission. To quote the great Tony* “What power have you got? Where did you get it from? In whose interests do you exercise it? To whom are you accountable? And how can we get rid of you?” If you cannot get rid of the people who govern you, you do not live in a democratic system."
This is NOT about domestic politics. Nor will I find shelter from privatise everything free marketeers in an EU which enshrines privatisation and free markets for all in its DNA.
*Benn, not Blair
You can vote them out, but if they get 37% of the vote they win. They will continue to look after the pensioners and other parts of their core vote, and that is all they need to do. Plus, labour has Corbyn - an absolute gift to a Tory party that will wave the Union Jack at every opportunity. In any case, there are four years until the next general election potentially and that's four years when a government further to the right of this one will be in charge. The damage that can (will) be done in that time is immense. I just do not understand why you would want that for ordinary, working class people.
You will see that immigration will not fall substantially, that the Tory leavers who takeover will reward the billionaires who funded their campaign and move to build bridges with those in the City and in big business they have alienated. Any slowdown will lead to greater austerity, and there will be a slowdown. And the people who pay the price will be the same people that always do. if leaving the EU would substantially change things for the better in the medium to long term, then I might agree short term pain might be a price worth paying. But it won't.
I have been convinced from the start that Leave would win - few have more of an emotional connection with the EU than with the arguments offered by Leave.
My anecdote from last night was that friends on Fb who don't do politics have started to realise the inevitable. This has widened today - mostly AB bankers suggesting financial implications, followed by some insult to Leavers. Utterly hilarious.
If we get QE post-Brexit vote - as many think is likely - then the bankers will be delighted.
Surely we won't need QE if the pound falls as much as everyone tells us it will.
It's either that or interest rate rises - imagine the fun that would bring after years of low mortgage payments.
We would need interest rate increases. More QE only delays the inevitable..
This referendum has put me, Scott, Carlotta, Topping, Southam, Surbiton, Tyson, Richard N, Ally M (Antifrank) and HYFUD all on the same side. We argued like cats and dogs in years gone by.
I have found I rather like the new consensus.
British Democratic Party anyone?
More concerning, I find myself agreeing with Roger.
I would not vote for a Tory party represented by the Leave campaign or their outriders on here. And that would be a first for me.
Yup
This referendum has put me, Scott, Carlotta, Topping, Southam, Surbiton, Tyson, Richard N, Ally M (Antifrank) and HYFUD all on the same side. We argued like cats and dogs in years gone by.
An interesting thought from a Lib Dem. Cameron falls on his sword before the vote.
"It makes me think that David Cameron has one last card to play if Leave are still ahead in the final 48 hours before the poll: he can announce to the nation a few days before the referendum vote that after June 23rd, regardless of outcome, he will step down as prime minister." http://nicktyrone.com/camerons-last-ditch-move-keep-us-europe/
That would be piling stupidity on stupidity. I'm sure some people are voting to 'wipe the smile of their faces' as the advert enjoins us to do. There can't be that many, surely?
Most of the ex-Cameron fans are shaking their heads more in sorrow than in anger. For me, it's a bit like discovering your favourite child is being done for shoplifting. All that promise, all that reputation, squandered for a mess of EU pottage.
It would be a daft idea, and it wouldn't achieve anything.
I quite agree and I, like many Tory Remain supporters, are primarily voting that way on the back of his endorsement, against what our hearts are saying.
Cameron is streets ahead of any other leader the Tories could elect on everything (bar Europe apparently).
Agreed - he and Osborne brought the party from the brink of extinction to govt [albeit with a tiny majority]. The idiots on here now seem to think the country is ready to embrace Gove, IDS and Lord Farage in his place. not a chance.
The fact that it is still a tiny majority, apart from showing how stupid the idiots are who are bringing Cameron down, also shows how difficult it is to win from the right, even with a popular leader. Which incidentally, apart from Boris in the home counties, none of his potential successors will be.
That's not a million miles away from one of Sunil's posters!
More lies.
What the poster's content, or it being close to one of Sunil's?
I have been uncomfortable about the focus on immigration during this campaign to be honest. I've always been very relaxed about immigration and my concerns with the EU are all about sovereignty and democracy.
But I can't deny the "points based system" policy was probably the turning point of the campaign. Hopefully once the referendum is over common sense will return on all sides.
Being on the same side as people producing posters like this is not a comfortable place for me to be... Will be happy with 23rd June is over and we have the result one way or another...
I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit
The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)
A Labour manifesto by the look of it.
Indeed. It turns out that when Gove, Boris, Priti and co told us that there was no alternative to austerity they were telling lies. Whoever would have thought it?
Put the £26bn or so that is EU fees and overseas aid back on the table and budget decisions could have been/can be very different.
The EU money will get swallowed up immediately to cover the drop in tax receipts that will follow Brexit, as will the overseas aid money. The new Tory Leave government will have to borrow more to make good its promises. Let's see if that happens.
QT panel could be feisty: "David Dimbleby presents topical debate from York. On the panel are musician and Remain campaigner Bob Geldof, Labour's former home secretary Alan Johnson MP, Conservative education secretary Nicky Morgan MP, economist Ruth Lea, Leave campaigner and former Labour minister Tom Harris and the novelist and former Conservative MP Louise Mensch."
I would not vote for a Tory party represented by the Leave campaign or their outriders on here. And that would be a first for me.
Yup
This referendum has put me, Scott, Carlotta, Topping, Southam, Surbiton, Tyson, Richard N, Ally M (Antifrank) and HYFUD all on the same side. We argued like cats and dogs in years gone by.
Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.
See the UKIP poster...
QED
I think the photo on the UKIP poster is a column of Syrian refugees somewhere on the continent, which isn't actually a problem that will be addressed by leaving the EU.
But who needs logic?
u do know most of them will have German/swedish sitizenship eventually meaning they have a right to travel here freely.
I'm not convinced about this swing back to status quo. I reckon there's still a lot of Shy Leave out there but also the more acceptable it becomes to say you're voting Leave the more people are going to join the bandwagon. I'm getting anecdotals today about Remainers switching to Leave.
An interesting thought from a Lib Dem. Cameron falls on his sword before the vote.
"It makes me think that David Cameron has one last card to play if Leave are still ahead in the final 48 hours before the poll: he can announce to the nation a few days before the referendum vote that after June 23rd, regardless of outcome, he will step down as prime minister." http://nicktyrone.com/camerons-last-ditch-move-keep-us-europe/
That would be piling stupidity on stupidity. I'm sure some people are voting to 'wipe the smile of their faces' as the advert enjoins us to do. There can't be that many, surely?
Most of the ex-Cameron fans are shaking their heads more in sorrow than in anger. For me, it's a bit like discovering your favourite child is being done for shoplifting. All that promise, all that reputation, squandered for a mess of EU pottage.
It would be a daft idea, and it wouldn't achieve anything.
I quite agree and I, like many Tory Remain supporters, are primarily voting that way on the back of his endorsement, against what our hearts are saying.
Cameron is streets ahead of any other leader the Tories could elect on everything (bar Europe apparently).
Agreed - he and Osborne brought the party from the brink of extinction to govt [albeit with a tiny majority]. The idiots on here now seem to think the country is ready to embrace Gove, IDS and Lord Farage in his place. not a chance.
If the polls are right then what choice is there apart from embracing Gove, IDS and Lord Farage. Well maybe not 'embracing' maybe 'suffering', whilst waving goodbye to Scotland and maybe Gibraltar.
QT panel could be feisty: "David Dimbleby presents topical debate from York. On the panel are musician and Remain campaigner Bob Geldof, Labour's former home secretary Alan Johnson MP, Conservative education secretary Nicky Morgan MP, economist Ruth Lea, Leave campaigner and former Labour minister Tom Harris and the novelist and former Conservative MP Louise Mensch."
Geldof and Mensch... Reith will be turning in his grave.
Two thoughts: one thing this referendum campaign has achieved is that it has forced the politicians to be honest about something they have avoided being honest about it i.e. immigration. If we vote to Remain, we will know that this means no controls on immigration from the EU (apart from the very limited ones contained in the Treaties). And, therefore, that if we want to control immigration at all, that control will have to be on non-EU immigration.
Unfortunately, the Leave camp has not I think (for the reasons I spelt out in my thread a few days ago) been equally honest about their ability to control immigration from the EU even after a Leave vote because that will depend on what deals we reach with the EU.
And not only on that. Don't expect the relief crew to be completely honest. Immigration has been wanted by those who employ labour in this country, for a very obvious economic reason: more competition in the labour market. Have any politicians been honest about that?
There's also the other obvious fact in Britain that most who are rolling in it, or who are comfortably or well off, or even who aren't but who have some petty bourgeois or petty bureaucratic status or other, have extreme contempt for the lower orders, and they view most immigrants and most "white working class" British people too as squalid and animalistic and not the kind of people you'd want your children to go near.
So...who would trust Johnson and Gove to "deliver"?
This has been such a fascinating referendum that says so much about Britain and also about how both the country and our continent are changing. I am so glad I've followed it.
I have no doubt that leave are very likely to win but 7 days is a long time in politics and who knows what event or events may come along to change the narrative. But for me George Osborne lost the campaign, and me, yesterday and really I am now looking to beyond the referendum with a plea to all sides to be kinder to one another and accept the will of the people in what I would expect to be a high turnout poll and probable Brexit
The will of the people is for higher wages, more public spending, no tax rises, much lower immigration, cheaper housing and more jobs. Leave have told voters they will get all that. It's all going to be wonderful, so why would there be any arguments? :-)
All of that is possible, but it depends on higher wages which is hard to achieve within a system which has an essentially unlimited poll of unskilled workers. Switzerland has proved you can have a society with low taxation, decent public services and high wages.
If we end up with a Swiss-style relationship with the EU then millions of voters who were promised substantially lower immigration are going to be furious.
Switzerland have pulled their emergency brake, and much like Lichtenstein it looks like the EU will end up caving and just let it continue indefinitely.
QT panel could be feisty: "David Dimbleby presents topical debate from York. On the panel are musician and Remain campaigner Bob Geldof, Labour's former home secretary Alan Johnson MP, Conservative education secretary Nicky Morgan MP, economist Ruth Lea, Leave campaigner and former Labour minister Tom Harris and the novelist and former Conservative MP Louise Mensch."
Geldof and Mensch... Reith will be turning in his grave.
What have we done to deserve these loudmouth clowns appearing on QT?
Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.
See the UKIP poster...
QED
I think the photo on the UKIP poster is a column of Syrian refugees, which isn't actually a problem that will be addressed by leaving the EU.
But who needs logic?
They won't be able to come here on mass if Germany or another country decides to give them EU passports Willy nilly.
I thought about that. But a) That possible situation is down the line - the immediate problem is of refugees and b) They would be German by that point. I don't think Leave are proposing an immigration policy based on racial stereotyping.
But, heck, that poster isn't there to stimulate reasoned discussion. It's there to play on base fears.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick Farage friend says he's been approached by Boris camp about job in Johnson govt & place in Lords to avoid fighting possible Thanet by-elect
This is truly terrifying. An out-an-out bigot will be in the British cabinet within weeks.
A huge realignment of politics is in the air if we vote Leave. Surely moderate Tories have to join forces with moderate Labour and stop this insanity?
O/T - It's the Tooting By-Election today - is this the most overshadowed, and least publicized Parliamentary By-Election ever?
Yup, the fact I've not done a thread on it in the past month says it all.
17k matched on Betfair for it, and 31m matched on the EURef.
Hillary Benn is for Remain. He is, to my knowledge, the only on either side who has told the truth about immigration: we have high immigration because it benefits our economy and it won't substantially change after a Leave vote.
Unfortunately for Mr Benn the twerp Eddie Izzard was also on the same Question Time at the same time.
Also it isn't a message anyone wants to hear.
There are losers in that some of the immigrants directly displace a UK born worker. However everyone gets some benefit in form of a stronger economy, better welfare provision etc.
The main point, though, is that immigration is there for a reason and because of that, will not substantially diminish post-Brexit. Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.
This returns to the challenge that's blighted the Remain campaign. It's an intellectual argument that I can broadly agree with, yet does not resonate with ordinary people.
In my area, the nearest large-scale employer used to be Xerox, with a plant in Mitcheldean. They used to employ 5,000 people, though that had dwindled to ~1,500 when the plant finally closed down (I believe there's still a tiny admin function there). Production was moved elsewhere, including Eastern Europe.
While I was being DV'ed, I did some voluntary work retraining men and women who'd spent their working lives assembling printers. It was awful. They were being ejected into a world with an almost worthless C&G level one in things like PC maintenance.
Now, their children are competing for entry level jobs with bright-eyed, well-qualified immigrants. They're failing. That's competition our generation never had to deal with on any scale.
It's hard to comfort oneself with macro-economics. Nor, to forestall Scott, do I see them taking much comfort from 'sovereignty'. Answer? I don't know. The solutions will take decades to work through.
Comments
If the Economic Reality Tories cleave from the Faragists, many Blairites might find themselves more comfortable with them than the Corbynistas
PS I know the labels I use upset some people, but they are descriptive and unambiguous until new names emerge
Agree with your comments about the post referendum period. Whatever happens we'll need a period of reconciliation and reflection to digest what the voters have said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/15/former-tory-leaders-and-chancellors-accuse-george-osborne-of-lud/?WT.mc_id=e_DM128713&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pol_New_EU&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pol_New_EU_2016_06_16&utm_campaign=DM128713 and
Allistair Heath descibes him as a kamikaze chancellor and concludes 'Mr Osborne no longer has any hope of leading a Tory party that he now despises, and is unlikely to remain as Chancellor for long even if Remain wins next week.' http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/15/it-will-all-end-in-tears-for-the-first-kamikaze-chancellor-in-hi/?WT.mc_id=e_DM128713&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pol_New_EU&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pol_New_EU_2016_06_16&utm_campaign=DM128713
In an excellent post for the new www.reaction.life website, Iain Martin agrees 'George Osborne will be very lucky to survive more than a few months as Chancellor...it is difficult to see in practical terms how the Chancellor can carry on for long having lost the confidence of such a large part of the Conservative parliamentary party.' Full article is here http://reaction.life/osborne-looks-like-toast/
I now think it's 4/6 or 8/13 that Osborne will go this year. The 7/4 with Hills that Osborne will cease to be Chancellor in 2016 is stand out value.
But I can vote them out. I can't vote out the European Commission. To quote the great Tony* “What power have you got? Where did you get it from? In whose interests do you exercise it? To whom are you accountable? And how can we get rid of you?” If you cannot get rid of the people who govern you, you do not live in a democratic system."
This is NOT about domestic politics. Nor will I find shelter from privatise everything free marketeers in an EU which enshrines privatisation and free markets for all in its DNA.
*Benn, not Blair
***Betting post***: George Osborne to cease to be Chancellor of Exchequer in 2016 @7/4 with Hills. http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/499992/Conservative+Specials.html
Osborne's threatened budget of tax rises and spending cuts was met with 57 Conservative MPs signing a letter opposing it in next to no time. The Chancellor is very much in the firing line for the Leave campaigners having made economic fears central to the campaign to say in the EU. There's a range of scenarios that I believe make an Osborne departure in 2016 better than 50:50 and the 7/4 should be taken.
Scenario 1. Remain wins comfortably in the end and both Cameron and Osborne unite the Tory benches and both stay in post for at least the rest of the year.
Scenario 2. Remain wins by a narrow margin and Tory civil war erupts. Cameron won't feel obliged to leave in 2016 but will be under pressure to go sooner than 2019/20. A reshuffle takes places and Osborne is moved to another role such as Foreign Secretary. This will possibly boost his future leadership chances and placate opponents.
Scenario 3. Leave wins and Cameron departs. A new leader is elected in 2016 and is compelled to appoint a new Chancellor.
Scenario 4. Leave wins, Cameron departs and Osborne somehow wins the leadership and therefore is no longer Chancellor.
Scenario 5. Leave wins and Cameron departs. A new leader is elected in 2016. Osborne didn't stand but is retained to provide some economic continuity.
Scenarios 1 and 5 don't appear to be particularly likely right now though can't be dismissed. While there will be other scenarios, the likelihood of Osborne leaving the role of Chancellor by the end of the year seems reasonably likely. If you agree with me that today's developments will rebound on Osborne then the chances of him going later this year look even greater and the prices with William Hill looks even better value. I'd say there is a 60% chance Osborne will leave his post this year and not a 36% chance which the odds imply.
Cameron is streets ahead of any other leader the Tories could elect on everything (bar Europe apparently).
The day that happens, is the day I walk out of the Tory party.
The main point, though, is that immigration is there for a reason and because of that, will not substantially diminish post-Brexit. Anyone who votes Leave on the grounds of reducing immigration, which is probably a majority, is voting on a false prospectus.
Two thoughts: one thing this referendum campaign has achieved is that it has forced the politicians to be honest about something they have avoided being honest about it i.e. immigration. If we vote to Remain, we will know that this means no controls on immigration from the EU (apart from the very limited ones contained in the Treaties). And, therefore, that if we want to control immigration at all, that control will have to be on non-EU immigration.
Unfortunately, the Leave camp has not I think (for the reasons I spelt out in my thread a few days ago) been equally honest about their ability to control immigration from the EU even after a Leave vote because that will depend on what deals we reach with the EU.
Also - and I may be bringing a whole heap of abuse on my head by saying this - it is possible to make a positive argument for free movement within the EU. It's just that the two main parties for various reasons are hobbled by their own internal demons from making those arguments.
Is there a link to the timetable of counting and reporting?
About 148000, on a turnout of ~31m. Maybe 0.5% at the outside.
I base this on turnout in NI being proportional with the last GE and unionist breaking 75% for leave, republicans 80% for remian, I've put turnout in Gib at 80% which may be too high with 90% remain, and assumed 120k expats registered (up from 106k last year), 100k of them voting breaking 75/25 remain.
As always, I stand open to education by correction.
https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/743382955003940864
Suggests Mori have uprated underclass etc (politically disengaged).
This referendum has put me, Scott, Carlotta, Topping, Southam, Surbiton, Tyson, Richard N, Ally M (Antifrank) and HYFUD all on the same side. We argued like cats and dogs in years gone by.
I have found I rather like the new consensus.
British Democratic Party anyone?
QED
Quite a few people had already posted their postal votes though.
I'll be topping up on Remain at this rate - will wait for the noon poll in case that get's me a better price still.
'Remain was always going to lose. Immigration control is just too potent a message to fight against. But there are going to be a huge number of very disillusioned, beaten up ordinary punters that will be absolutely furious at what is about to actually transpire. '
Can you change the record, you've been banging on about that every day for the past month,no need for the endless repetition.
My comment on Scotland are well known (DK meant No) and Quebec is similar. At no point was there ever a poll where Yes > No + DK.
The eve of referendum poll in Quebec had 41% as No and a whopping 12% Don't Know.
Electoral Roll
Dec 2013 46,139,140
Dec 2014 45,325, 078
May 2015 46,420,413
Dec 2015 43,478,635.
Daily application to register rates in the first quarter of 2016 were running at way below 2015 rates. There has obviously been a surge in Q2, but last year only about 30% resulted in actual registrations.
It is also worth remembering that 3.3m people are EU citizens, the majority of whom are ineligible (Ireland, Malta, Cyprus excepted) to vote. The effect should be most profound in London.
It’s conceivable that less votes than the GE could still equate to higher turnout against the roll.
It truly is the end of days...
Horribly effective I fear.
I was in Magaluf in 1998 when David Beckham got sent off and England lost on penalties. I was only 20, and the violence was extreme and frightening.
There were 20 of us out there (16 boys, 4 girls). Big, strong, fit young rugby players. We weren't particularly interested in the football because we are Welsh, but straight in front of our first floor balcony was a huge plaza where the game was on a big screen. So we congregated in my room and watched it.
One boy with us had a Welsh rugby shirt on and there was banter during the game. Across the plaza some Scots had Argentina tops on. When England were winning the banter was good fun.
Then they lost, and the atmosphere turned. It's no exaggeration to say we are lucky to be alive. My room was full of glass, chair legs, table legs, you name it. The plaza was demolished. The bars downstairs were smashed to smithereens. The security rang our room and told us to stay put but the fighting got so bad in our corridor that some English fans from South London ripped our room door clean off its hinges. They got in our room and it was mayhem because the police (luckily) were there within moments. One skinhead thug was beating-up a Guardia Civil cop with our door!
People were unconscious and bleeding everywhere you looked. There was an English fan unconscious in our room. A few of our boys went to hospital. I was stood there with nothing on my feet, covered in glass and blood just amazed at the scene.
Even one of our girls got beat up. What was amazing was after the Guardia Civil protected us and some families the English fans started beating each other up!
Absolutely frightening and completely unexpected. Closest I've ever been to death, I reckon.
I fear for the genuine fans out there today.
Just ask Stuart Dickson.
With Trump ideally, as guest of honour. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/03/donald-trump-arrive-uk-eu-referendum-cameron-brexit
But who needs logic?
You will see that immigration will not fall substantially, that the Tory leavers who takeover will reward the billionaires who funded their campaign and move to build bridges with those in the City and in big business they have alienated. Any slowdown will lead to greater austerity, and there will be a slowdown. And the people who pay the price will be the same people that always do. if leaving the EU would substantially change things for the better in the medium to long term, then I might agree short term pain might be a price worth paying. But it won't.
I have been uncomfortable about the focus on immigration during this campaign to be honest. I've always been very relaxed about immigration and my concerns with the EU are all about sovereignty and democracy.
But I can't deny the "points based system" policy was probably the turning point of the campaign. Hopefully once the referendum is over common sense will return on all sides.
Being on the same side as people producing posters like this is not a comfortable place for me to be... Will be happy with 23rd June is over and we have the result one way or another...
"David Dimbleby presents topical debate from York. On the panel are musician and Remain campaigner Bob Geldof, Labour's former home secretary Alan Johnson MP, Conservative education secretary Nicky Morgan MP, economist Ruth Lea, Leave campaigner and former Labour minister Tom Harris and the novelist and former Conservative MP Louise Mensch."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uSGtRoEQYA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Democratic_Party_(2013)
I'm not convinced about this swing back to status quo. I reckon there's still a lot of Shy Leave out there but also the more acceptable it becomes to say you're voting Leave the more people are going to join the bandwagon. I'm getting anecdotals today about Remainers switching to Leave.
Farage is José María Gil-Robles to Cameron's Alejandro Lerroux.
Now there's a historical reference that we don't normally see :P
Brexit already means me having to spend about six weeks in France, Reckless and Farage joining the Tory party would be the cherry on the parfait.
There's also the other obvious fact in Britain that most who are rolling in it, or who are comfortably or well off, or even who aren't but who have some petty bourgeois or petty bureaucratic status or other, have extreme contempt for the lower orders, and they view most immigrants and most "white working class" British people too as squalid and animalistic and not the kind of people you'd want your children to go near.
So...who would trust Johnson and Gove to "deliver"?
This has been such a fascinating referendum that says so much about Britain and also about how both the country and our continent are changing. I am so glad I've followed it.
But, heck, that poster isn't there to stimulate reasoned discussion. It's there to play on base fears.
Farage friend says he's been approached by Boris camp about job in Johnson govt & place in Lords to avoid fighting possible Thanet by-elect
This is truly terrifying. An out-an-out bigot will be in the British cabinet within weeks.
A huge realignment of politics is in the air if we vote Leave. Surely moderate Tories have to join forces with moderate Labour and stop this insanity?
In my area, the nearest large-scale employer used to be Xerox, with a plant in Mitcheldean. They used to employ 5,000 people, though that had dwindled to ~1,500 when the plant finally closed down (I believe there's still a tiny admin function there). Production was moved elsewhere, including Eastern Europe.
While I was being DV'ed, I did some voluntary work retraining men and women who'd spent their working lives assembling printers. It was awful. They were being ejected into a world with an almost worthless C&G level one in things like PC maintenance.
Now, their children are competing for entry level jobs with bright-eyed, well-qualified immigrants. They're failing. That's competition our generation never had to deal with on any scale.
It's hard to comfort oneself with macro-economics. Nor, to forestall Scott, do I see them taking much comfort from 'sovereignty'. Answer? I don't know. The solutions will take decades to work through.