Remain still have a 11 lead on the economy, that is what did for Ed.
Was it not that and the rubbish leadership ratings? Cameron's ratings are dire, this is going to be close.
Yes and Dave and Osborne beat bojo and gove everyday of the week.
This is the second post from you today containing a factual error on polls. On the previous thread you stated that in the scots referendum ICM had YES 7 % ahead a week before the vote. The only sept 2014 poll with a YES lead was yougov and that was 2% on 6th sept 2014.
There was an ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph a few days before the Referendum with figures of 48% Yes 42% No 10% DK.
In response, now I have full access and not a phone access. 1. YES had two polls in the 4 weeks before the vote in their favour, the 6th Sept Yougov 2% and the ICM 6% on 11th Sept. The Ref was on 18th Sept. 2. So I was wrong to state that there was only one poll for YES in Sept 2014 there were 2 for YES and 13 had No ahead. 3. There were 16 polls in the 4 weeks prior to the vote and just 2 of them were for YES and none were ties. 4. The overwhelming weight of polls were for a NO win in the final 4 weeks of the Scots referendum. This is not the position with the EU referendum where most recent polls have had a majority for LEAVE. Also Prof John Curtice says that LEAVE are ahead. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendum
A suspended disqualification, so I suspec tthey're still in
How would their actual disqualification affect the group mechanics? It wouldn't be fair to the other three teams in the group to have the results against Russia annulled, as that deprives them of a potential 3pts (or 1 actual point in England's case) which will go towards their tally as best third place.
Remember that the best four third-place teams go through.
Russia need to play through all their matches - I guess if they'd been chucked out the result vs England would have had to have been annulled, which would have probably benefited England.
Clearly Priti is thinking about the great coming together on 24th June :-)
The Tories really are in a huge mess, aren't they?
Well after how much the PM had courted the Sun in 2015, it must hurt a lot. Deserved. I was a supporter of keeping Dave and having him being PM with a Leave majority Cabinet, but the minute he started insulting middle England Tories is the minute he lost my support. I don't want Boris to be PM, but I also don't know who else to vote for, there is no doubt Boris makes the final two and the members I know have begun to swing towards him. Unless someone like Andrea Leadsom can muster up a challenge and is supported by the stop Boris camp to keep him out of the final two then I don't see any other path where Boris doesn't become leader/PM after a Leave vote now. Dave can no longer hold on.
Rachel Sylvester’s column in the Times (paywall) today on the party and the EU referendum.
It is Labour voters who will determine the outcome next week. According to a senior source at the Stronger In campaign, Tory voters are likely to account for a Remain vote of about 19 per cent, Lib Dems and Greens another 10 per cent and the SNP about 2 per cent, making a total of 31 per cent. That means that the prime minister is dependent on Labour voters to get over the required 50 per cent. Strategists have calculated that they need at least two-thirds of Labour supporters to vote Remain to be sure of victory. But — despite the vast majority of Labour MPs wanting to stay in — almost half of its voters do not know the party’s position ...
Another MP says that Labour voters in his area are breaking 55-45 for Out. “It’s terrible. The proverbial metropolitan elite has not been recognising the impact that rapid population change has had on the public services. And Labour is ducking this issue.”
The truth is that the referendum is exposing Labour’s breach with its traditional voters in a way that has profound implications for the country as well as the party. In Birmingham, campaigners were told to take all mentions of immigration out of their literature. Although the local MPs begged to be allowed to tackle local concerns head on, they were banned from doing so by party staff following instructions from the leader’s office. As one former minister says: “It gives the impression that we are completely out of touch with the way people live their lives.”
What about the None if the above voters? What pct do they account for either side of the argument?
I never thought I'd see tariffs being used to blackmail a country into accepting mass immigration. Perhaps we are further into a crony corporatist dystopian future than I thought - one can only hope Switzerland shines a beacon of hope into the future if we fail to leave.
Perhaps we should have a thread soon on just what might possibly happen following a LEAVE victory -
Would Cameron indicate his intention to (a) resign as PM and Party Leader asap or (b) would he instead simply attempt to brazen it out ?
If (a), Would Osborne and possibly others also notify their intention to resign from the Cabinet? How many Tory MPs would resign the party whip? Who and how many would challenge for the Tory Leadership? Who would win?
If (b) Would there be a formal challenge for the leadership, supported by the required number of Tory MPs? Who would mount such a challenge? Would Cameron emerge as the winner? If not, who would be the next PM?
I think Cameron would announce his intention to resign the morning after the vote (but would probably stay on as leader/PM while Tories have leadership contest)
Osborne would have to go immediately because it will need a new Chancellor to help restore calm to the markets - It can't be Osborne because he's been predicting all manner disaster if we vote LEAVE... No way could he calm the markets.
Who would restore faith in the markets....erghhhh...noone. That is the whole point- a Brexit vote will create huge uncertainty for years, not just from day one. Tax receipts will plummet and we will face further waves of austerity which will diminish our public services even more. And who will we blame as the health service contracts, inability to book GP appointments, school class sizes rise, local authority services are cut.....yes we'll blame the immigrants and Eurocrats as we always do.
Brexit will unleash upon the UK a tide of reactionary, negative nationalism that will be impossible to contain, and we will fire our hostility against immigrants and those on benefits.
I've been advised today to switch some of my funds- which BTW I'm not doing, but by heck funds are going to be pulled out of the UK on the 24th and not put back because of the uncertainty that Brexit creates. This will not be a one off shock and correction- it'll be a shock compounded by uncertainty, years of uncertainty.
Clearly Priti is thinking about the great coming together on 24th June :-)
The Tories really are in a huge mess, aren't they?
Well after how much the PM had courted the Sun in 2015, it must hurt a lot. Deserved. I was a supporter of keeping Dave and having him being PM with a Leave majority Cabinet, but the minute he started insulting middle England Tories is the minute he lost my support. I don't want Boris to be PM, but I also don't know who else to vote for, there is no doubt Boris makes the final two and the members I know have begun to swing towards him. Unless someone like Andrea Leadsom can muster up a challenge and is supported by the stop Boris camp to keep him out of the final two then I don't see any other path where Boris doesn't become leader/PM after a Leave vote now. Dave can no longer hold on.
I'd vote for Gove. He doesn't want it. May is an alternative.
Perhaps we should have a thread soon on just what might possibly happen following a LEAVE victory -
Would Cameron indicate his intention to (a) resign as PM and Party Leader asap or (b) would he instead simply attempt to brazen it out ?
If (a), Would Osborne and possibly others also notify their intention to resign from the Cabinet? How many Tory MPs would resign the party whip? Who and how many would challenge for the Tory Leadership? Who would win?
If (b) Would there be a formal challenge for the leadership, supported by the required number of Tory MPs? Who would mount such a challenge? Would Cameron emerge as the winner? If not, who would be the next PM?
I think Cameron would announce his intention to resign the morning after the vote (but would probably stay on as leader/PM while Tories have leadership contest)
Osborne would have to go immediately because it will need a new Chancellor to help restore calm to the markets - It can't be Osborne because he's been predicting all manner disaster if we vote LEAVE... No way could he calm the markets.
Who would restore faith in the markets....erghhhh...noone. That is the whole point- a Brexit vote will create huge uncertainty for years, not just from day one. Tax receipts will plummet and we will face further waves of austerity which will diminish our public services even more. And who will we blame as the health service contracts, inability to book GP appointments, school class sizes rise, local authority services are cut.....yes we'll blame the immigrants and Eurocrats as we always do.
Brexit will unleash upon the UK a tide of reactionary, negative nationalism that will be impossible to contain, and we will fire our hostility against immigrants and those on benefits.
I've been advised today to switch some of my funds- which BTW I'm not doing, but by heck funds are going to be pulled out of the UK on the 24th and not put back because of the uncertainty that Brexit creates. This will not be a one off shock and correction- it'll be a shock compounded by uncertainty, years of uncertainty.
I think John Whittingdale would make a good Chancellor... and he is pro-Brexit yet maintains crucial party loyalty which will make him tolerable across the party.
Clearly Priti is thinking about the great coming together on 24th June :-)
The Tories really are in a huge mess, aren't they?
Well after how much the PM had courted the Sun in 2015, it must hurt a lot. Deserved. I was a supporter of keeping Dave and having him being PM with a Leave majority Cabinet, but the minute he started insulting middle England Tories is the minute he lost my support. I don't want Boris to be PM, but I also don't know who else to vote for, there is no doubt Boris makes the final two and the members I know have begun to swing towards him. Unless someone like Andrea Leadsom can muster up a challenge and is supported by the stop Boris camp to keep him out of the final two then I don't see any other path where Boris doesn't become leader/PM after a Leave vote now. Dave can no longer hold on.
I'd vote for Gove. He doesn't want it. May is an alternative.
Or Philip Hammond
He has been very quiet.
Fallon would be sacked immediatley as would Amber Rudd.
Clearly Priti is thinking about the great coming together on 24th June :-)
The Tories really are in a huge mess, aren't they?
Indeed. I'll be sitting on the sidelines laughing at the Leavers in the event of Brexit.
Especially when they try and sell unlimited immigration to the voters to gain access to the single market.
I don't see how they can now. It will be clear that EU migration was the reason Leave won.
So we wont be in the single market.
A DIY recession awaits. Just a question of how long and how bad really.
How about this:
Cameron says he will stay as interim prime minister until a successor within the party is announced (say 6 weeks = end of July), with parliament to be dissolved pending a general election in say September. Parties to decide, in light of the referendum, what position they hold and put it to the country.
Perhaps we should have a thread soon on just what might possibly happen following a LEAVE victory -
Would Cameron indicate his intention to (a) resign as PM and Party Leader asap or (b) would he instead simply attempt to brazen it out ?
If (a), Would Osborne and possibly others also notify their intention to resign from the Cabinet? How many Tory MPs would resign the party whip? Who and how many would challenge for the Tory Leadership? Who would win?
If (b) Would there be a formal challenge for the leadership, supported by the required number of Tory MPs? Who would mount such a challenge? Would Cameron emerge as the winner? If not, who would be the next PM?
Cameron would do the Article 50 thing that morning - no point delaying. I suspect he'll also brazen it out arguing that, if the markets are in meltdown, the PM's resignation would only fuel the fire. Labour would table a vote of no confidence, which they'd lose. Boris, Gove and Patel will be appointed to head the 'Negotiation Task Force'.
Graham Brady would need to weld some steel over his post box if Dave tried to do that.
A suspended disqualification, so I suspec tthey're still in
How would their actual disqualification affect the group mechanics? It wouldn't be fair to the other three teams in the group to have the results against Russia annulled, as that deprives them of a potential 3pts (or 1 actual point in England's case) which will go towards their tally as best third place.
Remember that the best four third-place teams go through.
Russia need to play through all their matches - I guess if they'd been chucked out the result vs England would have had to have been annulled, which would have probably benefited England.
That's true I suppose but my point about the best third placed team stands. Let's say they walk into Lille this afternoon and kick off (I hope not!!). Uefa chucks them out tonight. The table now looks like this
1. Wales P 1 GD +1 Pts 3 2. England P 0 GD 0 Pts 0 3. Slovakia P 1 GD -1 Pts 0 4. Russia DQed
England and Wales draw on Thursday, Slovakia don't play (because they were due to play Russia).
England can then qualify automatically with a draw against Slovakia in the final game, despite having only 2pts.
Slovakia finish third but have only 1pt, but are surely out of the tournament, having just 1pt and the potential to score just 6pts whereas their opponents from other groups have had the potential to score 9...
Perhaps we should have a thread soon on just what might possibly happen following a LEAVE victory -
Would Cameron indicate his intention to (a) resign as PM and Party Leader asap or (b) would he instead simply attempt to brazen it out ?
If (a), Would Osborne and possibly others also notify their intention to resign from the Cabinet? How many Tory MPs would resign the party whip? Who and how many would challenge for the Tory Leadership? Who would win?
If (b) Would there be a formal challenge for the leadership, supported by the required number of Tory MPs? Who would mount such a challenge? Would Cameron emerge as the winner? If not, who would be the next PM?
I think Cameron would announce his intention to resign the morning after the vote (but would probably stay on as leader/PM while Tories have leadership contest)
Osborne would have to go immediately because it will need a new Chancellor to help restore calm to the markets - It can't be Osborne because he's been predicting all manner disaster if we vote LEAVE... No way could he calm the markets.
Who would restore faith in the markets....erghhhh...noone. That is the whole point- a Brexit vote will create huge uncertainty for years, not just from day one. Tax receipts will plummet and we will face further waves of austerity which will diminish our public services even more. And who will we blame as the health service contracts, inability to book GP appointments, school class sizes rise, local authority services are cut.....yes we'll blame the immigrants and Eurocrats as we always do.
Brexit will unleash upon the UK a tide of reactionary, negative nationalism that will be impossible to contain, and we will fire our hostility against immigrants and those on benefits.
I've been advised today to switch some of my funds- which BTW I'm not doing, but by heck funds are going to be pulled out of the UK on the 24th and not put back because of the uncertainty that Brexit creates. This will not be a one off shock and correction- it'll be a shock compounded by uncertainty, years of uncertainty.
I think John Whittingdale would make a good Chancellor... and he is pro-Brexit yet maintains crucial party loyalty which will make him tolerable across the party.
Clearly Priti is thinking about the great coming together on 24th June :-)
The Tories really are in a huge mess, aren't they?
Indeed. I'll be sitting on the sidelines laughing at the Leavers in the event of Brexit.
Especially when they try and sell unlimited immigration to the voters to gain access to the single market.
I don't see how they can now. It will be clear that EU migration was the reason Leave won.
So we wont be in the single market.
A DIY recession awaits. Just a question of how long and how bad really.
Yep and all the pensioners, who will be the primary reason for Brexit, will as usual sail on serenely collecting their winter fuel allowances and being sheltered from any downside, whilst the working home owners pick up the bill as usual.
Russia presumably can only be thrown out if their fans cause trouble in a stadium (that is after all why they got their suspended disqualification in the first place).
They're free to wreak havoc in any French city they choose otherwise, aren't they?
"The second hand dealers here order RRs from the factory for their showrooms, as the lead time is too long for most of the locals here to wait. ... "
Thats interesting, I shall have to ask my brother-in-law how that works out in practice. Each RR order is accompanied by a non-refundable deposit which runs well into to 5 figures and each car is built to the individual specifications of the customer. So buying cars for stock as it were entails significant capital outlay and the risk of having a car that no one wants to buy because it is not quite right. You car dealers, Mr. Pit, have balls of steel to risk that sort of money.
Yep. They order them with known popular colours and options, then when they arrive put them in the showroom with a 20% markup on the list price. Have a look at the dealers from the link below and look at the collections of cars they have. Al Ain Class, probably the biggest dealer in luxury and sports cars, currently have two Veyrons, a Koenigsegg, an Enzo, a LaFerrari, three 918s, three 911GT3RSs, a one-off Pininfarina RR, four '0km' RRs and about 100 others. a lot of them are sold on approval but the money in cars over here is completely bonkers.
Plug: anyone looking for a cheap supercar, they depreciate way quicker over here than in Europe. PM me for more info.
A suspended disqualification, so I suspec tthey're still in
How would their actual disqualification affect the group mechanics? It wouldn't be fair to the other three teams in the group to have the results against Russia annulled, as that deprives them of a potential 3pts (or 1 actual point in England's case) which will go towards their tally as best third place.
Remember that the best four third-place teams go through.
Russia need to play through all their matches - I guess if they'd been chucked out the result vs England would have had to have been annulled, which would have probably benefited England.
That's true I suppose but my point about the best third placed team stands. Let's say they walk into Lille this afternoon and kick off (I hope not!!). Uefa chucks them out tonight. The table now looks like this
1. Wales P 1 GD +1 Pts 3 2. England P 0 GD 0 Pts 0 3. Slovakia P 1 GD -1 Pts 0 4. Russia DQed
England and Wales draw on Thursday, Slovakia don't play (because they were due to play Russia).
England can then qualify automatically with a draw against Slovakia in the final game, despite having only 2pts.
Slovakia finish third but have only 1pt, but are surely out of the tournament, having just 1pt and the potential to score just 6pts whereas their opponents from other groups have had the potential to score 9...
If a team is DQed in international football (e.g. due to crowd disturbances leading to the match being abandoned, fielding an ineligible player etc) don't they usually award a 3-0 victory to the opponent?
Not sure what they'd do about matches already played.
Clearly Priti is thinking about the great coming together on 24th June :-)
The Tories really are in a huge mess, aren't they?
Well after how much the PM had courted the Sun in 2015, it must hurt a lot. Deserved. I was a supporter of keeping Dave and having him being PM with a Leave majority Cabinet, but the minute he started insulting middle England Tories is the minute he lost my support. I don't want Boris to be PM, but I also don't know who else to vote for, there is no doubt Boris makes the final two and the members I know have begun to swing towards him. Unless someone like Andrea Leadsom can muster up a challenge and is supported by the stop Boris camp to keep him out of the final two then I don't see any other path where Boris doesn't become leader/PM after a Leave vote now. Dave can no longer hold on.
I'd vote for Gove. He doesn't want it. May is an alternative.
Or Philip Hammond
He has been very quiet.
Fallon would be sacked immediatley as would Amber Rudd.
I know several Tories who'd sit on there hands than vote for her.
EDIT I think Fallon is a stalwart - he'll say whatever the Leadership wants, he's a gun for hire.
Clearly Priti is thinking about the great coming together on 24th June :-)
The Tories really are in a huge mess, aren't they?
Well after how much the PM had courted the Sun in 2015, it must hurt a lot. Deserved. I was a supporter of keeping Dave and having him being PM with a Leave majority Cabinet, but the minute he started insulting middle England Tories is the minute he lost my support. I don't want Boris to be PM, but I also don't know who else to vote for, there is no doubt Boris makes the final two and the members I know have begun to swing towards him. Unless someone like Andrea Leadsom can muster up a challenge and is supported by the stop Boris camp to keep him out of the final two then I don't see any other path where Boris doesn't become leader/PM after a Leave vote now. Dave can no longer hold on.
I'd vote for Gove. He doesn't want it. May is an alternative.
Or Philip Hammond
He has been very quiet.
Fallon would be sacked immediatley as would Amber Rudd.
May or Hammond could stop Boris, or a particularly determined outsider. But it isn't a long list.
@OldKingCole If Leave win, those who sought it need to be left to pursue it to its logical conclusion. There can be no arguments about stabs in the backs or cheating the British public.
Yes, it would probably be grim, but the public are entitled to have their vote honoured.
Agree entirely - the consequences for the UK would be even grimmer than LEAVEing (which I think will be a bit grim, but we'll kbo) if MPs turned round and said 'Thanks for that, we're ignoring it'. The question has been put, the answer must be respected. If it is LEAVE I suspect Cameron will invoke Article 50 before the men in grey suits get to Downing Street.
(Cameron) ineptly pledging a referendum in the first place
I think Cameron's true ineptness was on the Immigration pledge - promising to control something he couldn't - either in or out of the EU - as unless he imposes exit permits on Britons he can't control emigration, so going after a net migration figure is, and will remain, for the birds.
On the EU he was right to promise a referendum - it was about time - but he grossly oversold his 'renegotiation' which has damaged his credibility.
The first "ineptness" got him No. 10, and the second one got him a majority.
Precisely. He went for the short-term win at the expense of his long-term legacy. Almost everything he has said and done since becoming Tory leader has made it harder for him to win this vote, the most important of his life (as he tells us himself).
@OldKingCole If Leave win, those who sought it need to be left to pursue it to its logical conclusion. There can be no arguments about stabs in the backs or cheating the British public.
Yes, it would probably be grim, but the public are entitled to have their vote honoured.
Agree entirely - the consequences for the UK would be even grimmer than LEAVEing (which I think will be a bit grim, but we'll kbo) if MPs turned round and said 'Thanks for that, we're ignoring it'. The question has been put, the answer must be respected. If it is LEAVE I suspect Cameron will invoke Article 50 before the men in grey suits get to Downing Street.
There is a basic problem though. A Leave vote shafts an establishment who had successfully bought and controlled all the options for government. Democracy didn't matter particularly as Labour/Tory/Coalition would continue policies favourable to them.
The relationship of media interests to the right of the tory party means this equation is impossible. A different establishment has simply purchased another range of options.
Rachel Sylvester’s column in the Times (paywall) today on the party and the EU referendum.
It is Labour voters who will determine the outcome next week. According to a senior source at the Stronger In campaign, Tory voters are likely to account for a Remain vote of about 19 per cent, Lib Dems and Greens another 10 per cent and the SNP about 2 per cent, making a total of 31 per cent. That means that the prime minister is dependent on Labour voters to get over the required 50 per cent. Strategists have calculated that they need at least two-thirds of Labour supporters to vote Remain to be sure of victory. But — despite the vast majority of Labour MPs wanting to stay in — almost half of its voters do not know the party’s position ...
Another MP says that Labour voters in his area are breaking 55-45 for Out. “It’s terrible. The proverbial metropolitan elite has not been recognising the impact that rapid population change has had on the public services. And Labour is ducking this issue.”
The truth is that the referendum is exposing Labour’s breach with its traditional voters in a way that has profound implications for the country as well as the party. In Birmingham, campaigners were told to take all mentions of immigration out of their literature. Although the local MPs begged to be allowed to tackle local concerns head on, they were banned from doing so by party staff following instructions from the leader’s office. As one former minister says: “It gives the impression that we are completely out of touch with the way people live their lives.”
I can't see the Tories providing 19%. Assuming c.40% of May 2015's Tory voters back Remain, that would be more like 15-16%.
Current Tory voters though could certainly provide about that level
Clearly Priti is thinking about the great coming together on 24th June :-)
The Tories really are in a huge mess, aren't they?
Well after how much the PM had courted the Sun in 2015, it must hurt a lot. Deserved. I was a supporter of keeping Dave and having him being PM with a Leave majority Cabinet, but the minute he started insulting middle England Tories is the minute he lost my support. I don't want Boris to be PM, but I also don't know who else to vote for, there is no doubt Boris makes the final two and the members I know have begun to swing towards him. Unless someone like Andrea Leadsom can muster up a challenge and is supported by the stop Boris camp to keep him out of the final two then I don't see any other path where Boris doesn't become leader/PM after a Leave vote now. Dave can no longer hold on.
I'd vote for Gove. He doesn't want it. May is an alternative.
Much as I like Gove he's not an election winner, not sure Theresa is either but she's probably the best there is at the moment.
Clearly Priti is thinking about the great coming together on 24th June :-)
The Tories really are in a huge mess, aren't they?
Well after how much the PM had courted the Sun in 2015, it must hurt a lot. Deserved. I was a supporter of keeping Dave and having him being PM with a Leave majority Cabinet, but the minute he started insulting middle England Tories is the minute he lost my support. I don't want Boris to be PM, but I also don't know who else to vote for, there is no doubt Boris makes the final two and the members I know have begun to swing towards him. Unless someone like Andrea Leadsom can muster up a challenge and is supported by the stop Boris camp to keep him out of the final two then I don't see any other path where Boris doesn't become leader/PM after a Leave vote now. Dave can no longer hold on.
Dave was never going to hold on. He'll hand the Leave negotiations over to Boris who, within a year, will be even more hated than Dave is now. This will be a long, slow-motion train wreck. Betrayal will be a word that features heavily in the continuing civil war on the right over the coming years.
With Corbyn unelectable, the country faces a hugely difficult, uncertain decade.
If you think all men find women like Priti Patel appealing, think again. She joins the group of Coulter and Hopkins- sexually repulsive. Ideological, gobby, right wing women.....please. I'd prefer a gentle cuddle and cup of coffee with Angela Merkel.
Do we think Cameron will even be PM this time in a fortnight, if there's a Leave vote? I would expect him to quit immediately and hand over to an "interim" leader while the leadership contest goes on.
Perhaps we should have a thread soon on just what might possibly happen following a LEAVE victory -
Would Cameron indicate his intention to (a) resign as PM and Party Leader asap or (b) would he instead simply attempt to brazen it out ?
If (a), Would Osborne and possibly others also notify their intention to resign from the Cabinet? How many Tory MPs would resign the party whip? Who and how many would challenge for the Tory Leadership? Who would win?
If (b) Would there be a formal challenge for the leadership, supported by the required number of Tory MPs? Who would mount such a challenge? Would Cameron emerge as the winner? If not, who would be the next PM?
I think Cameron would announce his intention to resign the morning after the vote (but would probably stay on as leader/PM while Tories have leadership contest)
Osborne would have to go immediately because it will need a new Chancellor to help restore calm to the markets - It can't be Osborne because he's been predicting all manner disaster if we vote LEAVE... No way could he calm the markets.
Who would restore faith in the markets....erghhhh...noone. That is the whole point- a Brexit vote will create huge uncertainty for years, not just from day one. Tax receipts will plummet and we will face further waves of austerity which will diminish our public services even more. And who will we blame as the health service contracts, inability to book GP appointments, school class sizes rise, local authority services are cut.....yes we'll blame the immigrants and Eurocrats as we always do.
Brexit will unleash upon the UK a tide of reactionary, negative nationalism that will be impossible to contain, and we will fire our hostility against immigrants and those on benefits.
I've been advised today to switch some of my funds- which BTW I'm not doing, but by heck funds are going to be pulled out of the UK on the 24th and not put back because of the uncertainty that Brexit creates. This will not be a one off shock and correction- it'll be a shock compounded by uncertainty, years of uncertainty.
Well for a start, nothing changes immediately. We'll all (UK and EU) need to take a deep breath and take stock of what the voters have said (hopefully without too much recrimination and bitterness, though that might be too much to ask)
That "taking stock" period will be the perfect time to begin restoring calm. Hammond or Theresa would probably be ideal Chancellors for this period of reflection?
A superb EU referendum supplement in today's Times, first of a short run I believe, exploring the issues, and quite significantly, actually setting out the facts in a clear and balanced way.
This is the sort of thing that should be coming through voters' letterboxes. If anyone is genuinely undecided or wants to do some sensible moderate reading of the issues, this series could be well worth a read.
Perhaps we should have a thread soon on just what might possibly happen following a LEAVE victory -
Would Cameron indicate his intention to (a) resign as PM and Party Leader asap or (b) would he instead simply attempt to brazen it out ?
If (a), Would Osborne and possibly others also notify their intention to resign from the Cabinet? How many Tory MPs would resign the party whip? Who and how many would challenge for the Tory Leadership? Who would win?
If (b) Would there be a formal challenge for the leadership, supported by the required number of Tory MPs? Who would mount such a challenge? Would Cameron emerge as the winner? If not, who would be the next PM?
Well PfP, that is clearly where all the betting action is, or is about to be.
I could just about see a mass resignation. Imagine BoZo trying to put a cabinet together with Bill Cash and Peter Bone...
Do we think Cameron will even be PM this time in a fortnight, if there's a Leave vote? I would expect him to quit immediately and hand over to an "interim" leader while the leadership contest goes on.
Clearly Priti is thinking about the great coming together on 24th June :-)
The Tories really are in a huge mess, aren't they?
Well after how much the PM had courted the Sun in 2015, it must hurt a lot. Deserved. I was a supporter of keeping Dave and having him being PM with a Leave majority Cabinet, but the minute he started insulting middle England Tories is the minute he lost my support. I don't want Boris to be PM, but I also don't know who else to vote for, there is no doubt Boris makes the final two and the members I know have begun to swing towards him. Unless someone like Andrea Leadsom can muster up a challenge and is supported by the stop Boris camp to keep him out of the final two then I don't see any other path where Boris doesn't become leader/PM after a Leave vote now. Dave can no longer hold on.
I'd vote for Gove. He doesn't want it. May is an alternative.
Much as I like Gove he's not an election winner, not sure Theresa is either but she's probably the best there is at the moment.
May (and Hammond) have made a point of staying well away from the referendum, even though her own department 'controls' immigration. She's one of very few that will be unaffected by the backstabbing of the campaign and senior enough to hold the party together in the aftermath. She7/1 to be next PM, have I mentioned that before?
Clearly Priti is thinking about the great coming together on 24th June :-)
The Tories really are in a huge mess, aren't they?
Well after how much the PM had courted the Sun in 2015, it must hurt a lot. Deserved. I was a supporter of keeping Dave and having him being PM with a Leave majority Cabinet, but the minute he started insulting middle England Tories is the minute he lost my support. I don't want Boris to be PM, but I also don't know who else to vote for, there is no doubt Boris makes the final two and the members I know have begun to swing towards him. Unless someone like Andrea Leadsom can muster up a challenge and is supported by the stop Boris camp to keep him out of the final two then I don't see any other path where Boris doesn't become leader/PM after a Leave vote now. Dave can no longer hold on.
I'd vote for Gove. He doesn't want it. May is an alternative.
Much as I like Gove he's not an election winner, not sure Theresa is either but she's probably the best there is at the moment.
Andrea for me. Bags of non-govt experience, very sound on finance and communicates well. Also has hidden cojones.
Perhaps we should have a thread soon on just what might possibly happen following a LEAVE victory -
Would Cameron indicate his intention to (a) resign as PM and Party Leader asap or (b) would he instead simply attempt to brazen it out ?
If (a), Would Osborne and possibly others also notify their intention to resign from the Cabinet? How many Tory MPs would resign the party whip? Who and how many would challenge for the Tory Leadership? Who would win?
If (b) Would there be a formal challenge for the leadership, supported by the required number of Tory MPs? Who would mount such a challenge? Would Cameron emerge as the winner? If not, who would be the next PM?
I think Cameron would announce his intention to resign the morning after the vote (but would probably stay on as leader/PM while Tories have leadership contest)
Osborne would have to go immediately because it will need a new Chancellor to help restore calm to the markets - It can't be Osborne because he's been predicting all manner disaster if we vote LEAVE... No way could he calm the markets.
Market panic sounds like great excuse for more spending cuts.
If the markets are shitting the bed it's not obvious why they'd have more confidence in a different chancellor who had said they wouldn't shit the bed.
If you think all men find women like Priti Patel appealing, think again. She joins the group of Coulter and Hopkins- sexually repulsive. Ideological, gobby, right wing women.....please. I'd prefer a gentle cuddle and cup of coffee with Angela Merkel.
If you think all men find women like Priti Patel appealing, think again. She joins the group of Coulter and Hopkins- sexually repulsive. Ideological, gobby, right wing women.....please. I'd prefer a gentle cuddle and cup of coffee with Angela Merkel.
If you think all men find women like Priti Patel appealing, think again. She joins the group of Coulter and Hopkins- sexually repulsive. Ideological, gobby, right wing women.....please. I'd prefer a gentle cuddle and cup of coffee with Angela Merkel.
So you only like women who behave and think what they are supposed to?
If you think all men find women like Priti Patel appealing, think again. She joins the group of Coulter and Hopkins- sexually repulsive. Ideological, gobby, right wing women.....please. I'd prefer a gentle cuddle and cup of coffee with Angela Merkel.
Do we think Cameron will even be PM this time in a fortnight, if there's a Leave vote? I would expect him to quit immediately and hand over to an "interim" leader while the leadership contest goes on.
Yes. Probably to Gove.
Ooh, good call, an interim PM. Someone senior enough to keep order but who doesn't want to run for the top job. *runs away to read carefully the terms on bets he has for next PM*
Since Alan Johnson was given the job of leading Labour REMAIN almost a year ago by Harriet, even now there are few signs of a campaign plan for Labour. Does he not have any drive or any original ideas in his head?
What is the mechanism by which Cameron "hands over to an interim leader" ?
Cabinet manual:
Where a Prime Minister chooses to resign from his or her individual position at a time when his or her administration has an overall majority in the House of Commons, it is for the party or parties in government to identify who can be chosen as the successor.
If you think all men find women like Priti Patel appealing, think again. She joins the group of Coulter and Hopkins- sexually repulsive. Ideological, gobby, right wing women.....please. I'd prefer a gentle cuddle and cup of coffee with Angela Merkel.
Next you'll be saying you have a "never kissed a Tory" t-shirt.
If you think all men find women like Priti Patel appealing, think again. She joins the group of Coulter and Hopkins- sexually repulsive. Ideological, gobby, right wing women.....please. I'd prefer a gentle cuddle and cup of coffee with Angela Merkel.
Angela over Priti is a fairly narrow slice of the male population...
I'm convinced, for what it's worth, that Cameron will try to hang on if there is a Brexit win. Unless it was a landslide, which it won't be, I think it's a PM's indeed any politician's natural instinct. Look at Brown when he lost the 2010 GE. Clinging on. Dave will do the same.
If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think he could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case).
If 50+ Tory MPs want to trigger a contest, then so be it.
Since Alan Johnson was given the job of leading Labour REMAIN almost a year ago by Harriet, even now there are few signs of a campaign plan for Labour. Does he not have any drive or any original ideas in his head?
Labour mayhaps dodged a bullet by him not running for leader.
Clearly Priti is thinking about the great coming together on 24th June :-)
The Tories really are in a huge mess, aren't they?
If only the PLP had some balls. They could be in power next year.
I am not sure they could. The most fervent Remainers are in Centrist Labour, and The Corbyn dislike of the EU is over Free Trade rather than immigration or the European courts.
I cannot see a viable Labour government under Leave. If the vote is Remain and the Tories collapse then a Labour govt is possible.
If you think all men find women like Priti Patel appealing, think again. She joins the group of Coulter and Hopkins- sexually repulsive. Ideological, gobby, right wing women.....please. I'd prefer a gentle cuddle and cup of coffee with Angela Merkel.
Next you'll be saying you have a "never kissed a Tory" t-shirt.
Tyson's said here he'd never befriend a Tory, nevermind kiss them. Using his warped logic - I'd disown my brother who's a Labour member.
The existing PM goes to see the Queen, tenders his resignation and asks her to call for the successor. Same way Blair handed over to Brown. There's nothing constitutional about party leadership campaigns in the role of Prime Minister, the PM is simply the person who commands a majority in Parliament.
Clearly Priti is thinking about the great coming together on 24th June :-)
The Tories really are in a huge mess, aren't they?
Indeed. I'll be sitting on the sidelines laughing at the Leavers in the event of Brexit.
Especially when they try and sell unlimited immigration to the voters to gain access to the single market.
I've invented a little game to soothe, if only slightly, the pain of the approaching months and years. It's called Brexiteer Bingo. As each economic horror rears up, I get a point for every Leaver who says:
What is the mechanism by which Cameron "hands over to an interim leader" ?
It's up to Cameron isn't it?
If he decided he had been so humiliated that they just wanted to go immediately then I assume the Tories would have to agree to someone becoming an "acting leader?") Who HMQ would then call to the Palace and ask them to form a government.
The more traditional route is for him to stay on why the Tories elect a new leader and then hand over, aka Thatcher to Major or Blair to Brown.
Last time a Tory leader just resigned and "went" would be Anthony Eden wouldn't it?
Clearly Priti is thinking about the great coming together on 24th June :-)
The Tories really are in a huge mess, aren't they?
Well after how much the PM had courted the Sun in 2015, it must hurt a lot. Deserved. I was a supporter of keeping Dave and having him being PM with a Leave majority Cabinet, but the minute he started insulting middle England Tories is the minute he lost my support. I don't want Boris to be PM, but I also don't know who else to vote for, there is no doubt Boris makes the final two and the members I know have begun to swing towards him. Unless someone like Andrea Leadsom can muster up a challenge and is supported by the stop Boris camp to keep him out of the final two then I don't see any other path where Boris doesn't become leader/PM after a Leave vote now. Dave can no longer hold on.
I'd vote for Gove. He doesn't want it. May is an alternative.
Much as I like Gove he's not an election winner, not sure Theresa is either but she's probably the best there is at the moment.
May (and Hammond) have made a point of staying well away from the referendum, even though her own department 'controls' immigration. She's one of very few that will be unaffected by the backstabbing of the campaign and senior enough to hold the party together in the aftermath. She7/1 to be next PM, have I mentioned that before?
"May (and Hammond) have made a point of staying well away from the referendum"
For a moment, I wondered what Top Gear had to do with all this.
@OldKingCole If Leave win, those who sought it need to be left to pursue it to its logical conclusion. There can be no arguments about stabs in the backs or cheating the British public.
Yes, it would probably be grim, but the public are entitled to have their vote honoured.
Agree entirely - the consequences for the UK would be even grimmer than LEAVEing (which I think will be a bit grim, but we'll kbo) if MPs turned round and said 'Thanks for that, we're ignoring it'. The question has been put, the answer must be respected. If it is LEAVE I suspect Cameron will invoke Article 50 before the men in grey suits get to Downing Street.
(Cameron) ineptly pledging a referendum in the first place
I think Cameron's true ineptness was on the Immigration pledge - promising to control something he couldn't - either in or out of the EU - as unless he imposes exit permits on Britons he can't control emigration, so going after a net migration figure is, and will remain, for the birds.
On the EU he was right to promise a referendum - it was about time - but he grossly oversold his 'renegotiation' which has damaged his credibility.
The first "ineptness" got him No. 10, and the second one got him a majority.
And if LEAVE win, both will define his legacy as one of failure.
Do we think Cameron will even be PM this time in a fortnight, if there's a Leave vote? I would expect him to quit immediately and hand over to an "interim" leader while the leadership contest goes on.
Yes. Probably to Gove.
That is my preferred route (and one I have posted about before). Gove for two years, overseeing the negotiations of Brexit, whilst an extended beauty parade goes on to find the person to lead the Tories into the post-EU 2020's.
The Sun has supported the winning side in every British general election and referendum for more than 40 years.
It has by far the largest circulation of any newspaper in the country, around 50% more than the Daily Mail.
In 1975, the Sun told its readers to vote Remain. Remain won. Later, to use an old-fashioned word, it became "Eurosceptic", capitalising on the xenophobia that from much of the electorate's point of view wasn't adequately represented by any electable political party. The Sun is the Daily Mail for people with lower literacy and numeracy, who watch more TV, who often have difficulty distinguishing between TV characters and the actors who play them, and who enjoy looking at pictures of young women's breasts during their tea-breaks. Yesterday, for the first time, the newspaper explicitly told its readers to vote Leave. THAT is a major moment in this campaign.
The referendum seems to be all over. I couldn't care less what they say in the Guardian, because the Guardian has little capability of changing many of their focaccia-eating readers' minds from DK, Abstain or Leave to Remain. Most of them simply adore Tuscany and Catalonia and...enough said.
All it needs is a shock or two in the next nine days, and Leave could win by 6% or more. The turnout will be high. It was always going to be high.
I agree about "one day's polls", but yesterday's polls are likely to have an influence on subsequent polls as shy supporters of immigration reduction decide to say "Leave? Hell yeah!" to the pollster on the phone rather than "Put me down as a Don't Know". This referendum brings a massive dose of release for many people.
If I were Remain, I would be looking for a route to grab Paul Dacre by his short and curlies, to make him an offer he couldn't refuse in return for telling DM readers to vote Remain. But think of all the advertising money the Rothermere press would lose. That's an extremely unlikely scenario. They might possibly sit on the fence, but that would be unlikely to have much effect, so I doubt they will. And in any case, the Tory darkie-haters who take the Mail, unlike Sun readers, probably don't need any encouragement to haul their arses down to the polling stations.
In short, Leave has won.
What's the betting that a Johnson-Gove government will keep Britain in the EEA and still allow Poles, Lithuanians and Romanians to come here in large numbers, just as they do now?
If you think all men find women like Priti Patel appealing, think again. She joins the group of Coulter and Hopkins- sexually repulsive. Ideological, gobby, right wing women.....please. I'd prefer a gentle cuddle and cup of coffee with Angela Merkel.
Next you'll be saying you have a "never kissed a Tory" t-shirt.
Tyson's said here he'd never befriend a Tory, nevermind kiss them. Using his warped logic - I'd disown my brother who's a Labour member.
I have close relatives in two other parties, had girlfriends in at least 2 other parties. They are people, not aliens from space.
Perhaps we should have a thread soon on just what might possibly happen following a LEAVE victory -
Would Cameron indicate his intention to (a) resign as PM and Party Leader asap or (b) would he instead simply attempt to brazen it out ?
If (a), Would Osborne and possibly others also notify their intention to resign from the Cabinet? How many Tory MPs would resign the party whip? Who and how many would challenge for the Tory Leadership? Who would win?
If (b) Would there be a formal challenge for the leadership, supported by the required number of Tory MPs? Who would mount such a challenge? Would Cameron emerge as the winner? If not, who would be the next PM?
I think Cameron would announce his intention to resign the morning after the vote (but would probably stay on as leader/PM while Tories have leadership contest)
Osborne would have to go immediately because it will need a new Chancellor to help restore calm to the markets - It can't be Osborne because he's been predicting all manner disaster if we vote LEAVE... No way could he calm the markets.
Who would restore faith in the markets....erghhhh...noone. That is the whole point- a Brexit vote will create huge uncertainty for years, not just from day one. Tax receipts will plummet and we will face further waves of austerity which will diminish our public services even more. And who will we blame as the health service contracts, inability to book GP appointments, school class sizes rise, local authority services are cut.....yes we'll blame the immigrants and Eurocrats as we always do.
Brexit will unleash upon the UK a tide of reactionary, negative nationalism that will be impossible to contain, and we will fire our hostility against immigrants and those on benefits.
I've been advised today to switch some of my funds- which BTW I'm not doing, but by heck funds are going to be pulled out of the UK on the 24th and not put back because of the uncertainty that Brexit creates. This will not be a one off shock and correction- it'll be a shock compounded by uncertainty, years of uncertainty.
Well for a start, nothing changes immediately. We'll all (UK and EU) need to take a deep breath and take stock of what the voters have said (hopefully without too much recrimination and bitterness, though that might be too much to ask)
That "taking stock" period will be the perfect time to begin restoring calm. Hammond or Theresa would probably be ideal Chancellors for this period of reflection?
Since the EU representatives actually offered Mr Cameron an associate membership status, which he refused because he wanted us to stay in, why would they not want to try offering that again if staying in is ruled out?
Don't know the details: even that might still be too close.
Do we think Cameron will even be PM this time in a fortnight, if there's a Leave vote? I would expect him to quit immediately and hand over to an "interim" leader while the leadership contest goes on.
Yes. Probably to Gove.
Ooh, good call, an interim PM. Someone senior enough to keep order but who doesn't want to run for the top job. *runs away to read carefully the terms on bets he has for next PM*
Okay, Gove is 8/1 for next PM, will take a covering bet on that even though it's a little short for someone who says he doesn't want the job! There's no such thing constitutionally as a temporary PM, the next person to be called to see Her Majesty after Cameron resigns is the next Prime Minister.
Clearly Priti is thinking about the great coming together on 24th June :-)
The Tories really are in a huge mess, aren't they?
Indeed. I'll be sitting on the sidelines laughing at the Leavers in the event of Brexit.
Especially when they try and sell unlimited immigration to the voters to gain access to the single market.
I've invented a little game to soothe, if only slightly, the pain of the approaching months and years. It's called Brexiteer Bingo. As each economic horror rears up, I get a point for every Leaver who says:
There's nothing constitutional about party leadership campaigns in the role of Prime Minister, the PM is simply the person who commands a majority in Parliament.
Which is where the fun begins.
Does Bozo command a majority? Not immediately obvious he does.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCjMZMxNr-0
1. YES had two polls in the 4 weeks before the vote in their favour, the 6th Sept Yougov 2% and the ICM 6% on 11th Sept. The Ref was on 18th Sept.
2. So I was wrong to state that there was only one poll for YES in Sept 2014 there were 2 for YES and 13 had No ahead.
3. There were 16 polls in the 4 weeks prior to the vote and just 2 of them were for YES and none were ties.
4. The overwhelming weight of polls were for a NO win in the final 4 weeks of the Scots referendum. This is not the position with the EU referendum where most recent polls have had a majority for LEAVE. Also Prof John Curtice says that LEAVE are ahead.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendum
So we wont be in the single market.
A DIY recession awaits. Just a question of how long and how bad really.
At least they've got a majority of UKIP MP
Brexit will unleash upon the UK a tide of reactionary, negative nationalism that will be impossible to contain, and we will fire our hostility against immigrants and those on benefits.
I've been advised today to switch some of my funds- which BTW I'm not doing, but by heck funds are going to be pulled out of the UK on the 24th and not put back because of the uncertainty that Brexit creates. This will not be a one off shock and correction- it'll be a shock compounded by uncertainty, years of uncertainty.
He has been very quiet.
Fallon would be sacked immediatley as would Amber Rudd.
Cameron says he will stay as interim prime minister until a successor within the party is announced (say 6 weeks = end of July), with parliament to be dissolved pending a general election in say September. Parties to decide, in light of the referendum, what position they hold and put it to the country.
1. Wales P 1 GD +1 Pts 3
2. England P 0 GD 0 Pts 0
3. Slovakia P 1 GD -1 Pts 0
4. Russia DQed
England and Wales draw on Thursday, Slovakia don't play (because they were due to play Russia).
England can then qualify automatically with a draw against Slovakia in the final game, despite having only 2pts.
Slovakia finish third but have only 1pt, but are surely out of the tournament, having just 1pt and the potential to score just 6pts whereas their opponents from other groups have had the potential to score 9...
They're free to wreak havoc in any French city they choose otherwise, aren't they?
Plug: anyone looking for a cheap supercar, they depreciate way quicker over here than in Europe. PM me for more info.
Not sure what they'd do about matches already played.
EDIT I think Fallon is a stalwart - he'll say whatever the Leadership wants, he's a gun for hire.
And only 6 shopping months left till Xmas!
With Corbyn unelectable, the country faces a hugely difficult, uncertain decade.
You're madder than Mad Jack McMad.
That "taking stock" period will be the perfect time to begin restoring calm. Hammond or Theresa would probably be ideal Chancellors for this period of reflection?
This is the sort of thing that should be coming through voters' letterboxes. If anyone is genuinely undecided or wants to do some sensible moderate reading of the issues, this series could be well worth a read.
I could just about see a mass resignation. Imagine BoZo trying to put a cabinet together with Bill Cash and Peter Bone...
All of which makes an early GE more likely
Labour’s Johnson claims immigration control would be worse with Brexit http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-will-make-immigration-worse-warns-johnson-in-labour-fightback-b3rrm2z2h
(only kidding!)
And furthermore it winds leavers up so much they will become 10/10 to vote
Hope they paid a royalty!
If the markets are shitting the bed it's not obvious why they'd have more confidence in a different chancellor who had said they wouldn't shit the bed.
Because that isn't sexist...
*runs away to read carefully the terms on bets he has for next PM*
By what mechanism?
Where a Prime Minister chooses to resign from his or her individual position at a time when his or her administration has an overall majority in the House of Commons, it is for the party or parties in government to identify who can be chosen as the successor.
That appears to be a courageous assumption by BSE.
If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think he could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case).
If 50+ Tory MPs want to trigger a contest, then so be it.
I cannot see a viable Labour government under Leave. If the vote is Remain and the Tories collapse then a Labour govt is possible.
I think he's angered too many of his own side. They'll throw him overboard, whether he fancies a swim or not.
'A price worth paying.'
'It would have happened anyway.'
and (increasingly)
'Actually, I voted Remain.'
If he decided he had been so humiliated that they just wanted to go immediately then I assume the Tories would have to agree to someone becoming an "acting leader?") Who HMQ would then call to the Palace and ask them to form a government.
The more traditional route is for him to stay on why the Tories elect a new leader and then hand over, aka Thatcher to Major or Blair to Brown.
Last time a Tory leader just resigned and "went" would be Anthony Eden wouldn't it?
"May (and Hammond) have made a point of staying well away from the referendum"
For a moment, I wondered what Top Gear had to do with all this.
It has by far the largest circulation of any newspaper in the country, around 50% more than the Daily Mail.
In 1975, the Sun told its readers to vote Remain. Remain won. Later, to use an old-fashioned word, it became "Eurosceptic", capitalising on the xenophobia that from much of the electorate's point of view wasn't adequately represented by any electable political party. The Sun is the Daily Mail for people with lower literacy and numeracy, who watch more TV, who often have difficulty distinguishing between TV characters and the actors who play them, and who enjoy looking at pictures of young women's breasts during their tea-breaks. Yesterday, for the first time, the newspaper explicitly told its readers to vote Leave. THAT is a major moment in this campaign.
The referendum seems to be all over. I couldn't care less what they say in the Guardian, because the Guardian has little capability of changing many of their focaccia-eating readers' minds from DK, Abstain or Leave to Remain. Most of them simply adore Tuscany and Catalonia and...enough said.
All it needs is a shock or two in the next nine days, and Leave could win by 6% or more. The turnout will be high. It was always going to be high.
I agree about "one day's polls", but yesterday's polls are likely to have an influence on subsequent polls as shy supporters of immigration reduction decide to say "Leave? Hell yeah!" to the pollster on the phone rather than "Put me down as a Don't Know". This referendum brings a massive dose of release for many people.
If I were Remain, I would be looking for a route to grab Paul Dacre by his short and curlies, to make him an offer he couldn't refuse in return for telling DM readers to vote Remain. But think of all the advertising money the Rothermere press would lose. That's an extremely unlikely scenario. They might possibly sit on the fence, but that would be unlikely to have much effect, so I doubt they will. And in any case, the Tory darkie-haters who take the Mail, unlike Sun readers, probably don't need any encouragement to haul their arses down to the polling stations.
In short, Leave has won.
What's the betting that a Johnson-Gove government will keep Britain in the EEA and still allow Poles, Lithuanians and Romanians to come here in large numbers, just as they do now?
"I'd prefer a gentle cuddle and cup of coffee with Angela Merkel."
I'm beginning to worry about you now.
Don't know the details: even that might still be too close.
(Good afternoon, everyone.)
Does Bozo command a majority? Not immediately obvious he does.