Do we think Cameron will even be PM this time in a fortnight, if there's a Leave vote? I would expect him to quit immediately and hand over to an "interim" leader while the leadership contest goes on.
Yes. Probably to Gove.
That is my preferred route (and one I have posted about before). Gove for two years, overseeing the negotiations of Brexit, whilst an extended beauty parade goes on to find the person to lead the Tories into the post-EU 2020's.
Interestingly, my very Guardianista leftie-liberal brother in law (yet not obviously a Europhile) said at the weekend, when recoiling at the prospect of Boris becoming PM: "I quite like Gove actually".
I was in such a stunned state of silence, I didn't get chance to follow-up!
I'm convinced, for what it's worth, that Cameron will try to hang on if there is a Brexit win. Unless it was a landslide, which it won't be, I think it's a PM's indeed any politician's natural instinct. Look at Brown when he lost the 2010 GE. Clinging on. Dave will do the same.
If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think he could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case).
If 50+ Tory MPs want to trigger a contest, then so be it.
This might work if the PM had taken a back seat in the campaign. However, he has been front and centre. If leave wins, even his own seat might vote to leave. Overall it would be a stunning rejection of Cameron personally by the voters.
I'm convinced, for what it's worth, that Cameron will try to hang on if there is a Brexit win. Unless it was a landslide, which it won't be, I think it's a PM's indeed any politician's natural instinct. Look at Brown when he lost the 2010 GE. Clinging on. Dave will do the same. ........... If 50+ Tory MPs want to trigger a contest, then so be it.
Think of this as a Company. Cameron, Osborne and Carney have all predicted mayhem if a decision is taken. Now that a decision is taken there will be the suspicion that they are not going to make it work well but instead will be tempted to take decisions that create the mayhem they predicted. For those reasons because of the scale of the possible challenges they just have to go and go straight away. I reluctantly include Carney in this because of the markets.
What is the mechanism by which Cameron "hands over to an interim leader" ?
It's up to Cameron isn't it?
If he decided he had been so humiliated that they just wanted to go immediately then I assume the Tories would have to agree to someone becoming an "acting leader?") Who HMQ would then call to the Palace and ask them to form a government.
The more traditional route is for him to stay on why the Tories elect a new leader and then hand over, aka Thatcher to Major or Blair to Brown.
Last time a Tory leader just resigned and "went" would be Anthony Eden wouldn't it?
I just can't see Cameron's ego allowing him to stay around when he's been confirmed as a "lame duck", while a leadership contest goes on. I think he'll follow the Brown/Miliband route.
I'm convinced, for what it's worth, that Cameron will try to hang on if there is a Brexit win. Unless it was a landslide, which it won't be, I think it's a PM's indeed any politician's natural instinct. Look at Brown when he lost the 2010 GE. Clinging on. Dave will do the same.
If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think he could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case).
If 50+ Tory MPs want to trigger a contest, then so be it.
This might work if the PM had taken a back seat in the campaign. However, he has been front and centre. If leave wins, even his own seat might vote to leave. Overall it would be a stunning rejection of Cameron personally by the voters.
A stunning rejection of what Cameron wanted. Not a stunning rejection of Cameron.
The Xenophobes Alliance. 149 Tory MPs 9 Labour and 1 UKIP.
At least they've got a majority of UKIP MP
Equating Leave with xenophobia is just such lazy cobblers.
And furthermore it winds leavers up so much they will become 10/10 to vote
Ok- I can try a bit harder to find some words to describe Leavers- nationalism, ignorance, populism, reactionary ideologues, bigots, and of course racists. Not all these apply to each leaver voter- but they would need to have at least one of those components in their DNA to consider voting Brexit.
The Xenophobes Alliance. 149 Tory MPs 9 Labour and 1 UKIP.
At least they've got a majority of UKIP MP
Equating Leave with xenophobia is just such lazy cobblers.
And furthermore it winds leavers up so much they will become 10/10 to vote
Why do you think Leave are winning then? They are behind on the economy and anyone voting purely on some ill defined notion of greater sovereignty, which let's be honest will make absolutely bugger all difference to most of us is either wealthy enough not to care, got no responsibilities or incredibly stupid.
I'm not suggesting that immigration isn't a problem, it's obviously too high, although not just from the EU. However it is the prime motivation for a lot of Leave voters and anyone trying to delude themselves that isn't the case is just wrong.
My anti-Tory gut. She's right-wing, not very smart and even Corbyn might be able to deny her an overall majority.
She spoke at a Leave event in Leicester a couple of weeks ago. She was not terribly good, but did avoid endorsing some of the wilder comments from the floor. The chap from the Midlands Chamber of Commerce was far better on the questions.
Do we think Cameron will even be PM this time in a fortnight, if there's a Leave vote? I would expect him to quit immediately and hand over to an "interim" leader while the leadership contest goes on.
Yes. Probably to Gove.
That is my preferred route (and one I have posted about before). Gove for two years, overseeing the negotiations of Brexit, whilst an extended beauty parade goes on to find the person to lead the Tories into the post-EU 2020's.
Perhaps we should have a thread soon on just what might possibly happen following a LEAVE victory -
Would Cameron indicate his intention to (a) resign as PM and Party Leader asap or (b) would he instead simply attempt to brazen it out ?
If (a), Would Osborne and possibly others also notify their intention to resign from the Cabinet? How many Tory MPs would resign the party whip? Who and how many would challenge for the Tory Leadership? Who would win?
If (b) Would there be a formal challenge for the leadership, supported by the required number of Tory MPs? Who would mount such a challenge? Would Cameron emerge as the winner? If not, who would be the next PM?
I think Cameron would announce his intention to resign the morning after the vote (but would probably stay on as leader/PM while Tories have leadership contest)
Osborne would have to go immediately because it will need a new Chancellor to help restore calm to the markets - It can't be Osborne because he's been predicting all manner disaster if we vote LEAVE... No way could he calm the markets.
Very true. Osborne has sacked himself. Self-inflicted dismissal. Carney is also close to that. Probably best to bring Merv back for a year.
If you think all men find women like Priti Patel appealing, think again. She joins the group of Coulter and Hopkins- sexually repulsive. Ideological, gobby, right wing women.....please. I'd prefer a gentle cuddle and cup of coffee with Angela Merkel.
Angela over Priti is a fairly narrow slice of the male population...
Schaueble: "Frau Merkel... Cameron...." Juncker: "...Cameron didn't have enough REMAIN supporters. The Referendum victory never took place!"
[Angela pauses to take off her glasses]
Angela: "The following stay here: Schaueble, Juncker, Kinnock, Barroso."
[The four named EUrocrats remain in the room as the others leave. The door closes behind them]
Angela: "That was an order! Cameron's attack was an order! How dare you ignore my orders?!"
[Angela's ranting is clearly audible outside the room]
Angela: "Is this what it came to? The EU big wigs, everybody lied to me! Even the BSE campaign! The REMAINERS are no more than a bunch of disloyal cowards!"
In 1975, the Sun told its readers to vote Remain. Remain won. Later, to use an old-fashioned word, it became "Eurosceptic", capitalising on the xenophobia that from much of the electorate's point of view wasn't adequately represented by any electable political party. The Sun is the Daily Mail for people with lower literacy and numeracy, who watch more TV, who often have difficulty distinguishing between TV characters and the actors who play them, and who enjoy looking at pictures of young women's breasts during their tea-breaks. Yesterday, for the first time, the newspaper explicitly told its readers to vote Leave. THAT is a major moment in this campaign.
Your response suggests you've never met a Sun reader in your life let alone attempted to convince them of anything.
The Xenophobes Alliance. 149 Tory MPs 9 Labour and 1 UKIP.
At least they've got a majority of UKIP MP
Equating Leave with xenophobia is just such lazy cobblers.
And furthermore it winds leavers up so much they will become 10/10 to vote
Ok- I can try a bit harder to find some words to describe Leavers- nationalism, ignorance, populism, reactionary ideologues, bigots, and of course racists. Not all these apply to each leaver voter- but they would need to have at least one of those components in their DNA to consider voting Brexit.
You omitted baby eaters and people who like the smurfs.
If you think all men find women like Priti Patel appealing, think again. She joins the group of Coulter and Hopkins- sexually repulsive. Ideological, gobby, right wing women.....please. I'd prefer a gentle cuddle and cup of coffee with Angela Merkel.
Next you'll be saying you have a "never kissed a Tory" t-shirt.
Tyson's said here he'd never befriend a Tory, nevermind kiss them. Using his warped logic - I'd disown my brother who's a Labour member.
You'd also have to disown yourself from the Blair years!
Further to my earlier post, I wonder if there has been some discussion between Cameron and say Boris/Gove to talk through the "Brexit win" scenario - eg, how the country responds to the vote, what we do next, a deal with Gove and Boris that gets them up there front and centre as (eg) Sec of State for Brexit or Deputy PM?
I'm convinced, for what it's worth, that Cameron will try to hang on if there is a Brexit win. Unless it was a landslide, which it won't be, I think it's a PM's indeed any politician's natural instinct. Look at Brown when he lost the 2010 GE. Clinging on. Dave will do the same.
If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think he could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case).
If 50+ Tory MPs want to trigger a contest, then so be it.
This might work if the PM had taken a back seat in the campaign. However, he has been front and centre. If leave wins, even his own seat might vote to leave. Overall it would be a stunning rejection of Cameron personally by the voters.
A stunning rejection of what Cameron wanted. Not a stunning rejection of Cameron.
He predicted chaos so he cannot be trusted to run things post-Brexit.
I have racked my brains to think of what kind of surprise or shock might favour Remain. About the only one I can think of is a "revelation" that UKIP takes money from the Kremlin.
And I'm not joking. In certain sabre-rattling "let's prevent a lightning attack on the Baltic states" circles, the flow or supposed flow of Russian government money to anti-EU parties in western Europe is talked about quite a lot. It has even been verified in the case of the French National Front.
Hints have been made about Boris too.
But it may be too late now to use this one to win the referendum.
If Leave has won the referendum it's because Remain has lost the argument. There is nothing positive about the EU being said. It's all about how nasty they'd be to us if we left. If we weren't in the EU now the chances of us voting to join are 0%. A Leave vote will be an unalloyed good for the UK and for the body politic.
If you think all men find women like Priti Patel appealing, think again. She joins the group of Coulter and Hopkins- sexually repulsive. Ideological, gobby, right wing women.....please. I'd prefer a gentle cuddle and cup of coffee with Angela Merkel.
Angela over Priti is a fairly narrow slice of the male population...
What is the mechanism by which Cameron "hands over to an interim leader" ?
It's up to Cameron isn't it?
If he decided he had been so humiliated that they just wanted to go immediately then I assume the Tories would have to agree to someone becoming an "acting leader?") Who HMQ would then call to the Palace and ask them to form a government.
The more traditional route is for him to stay on why the Tories elect a new leader and then hand over, aka Thatcher to Major or Blair to Brown.
Last time a Tory leader just resigned and "went" would be Anthony Eden wouldn't it?
I just can't see Cameron's ego allowing him to stay around when he's been confirmed as a "lame duck", while a leadership contest goes on. I think he'll follow the Brown/Miliband route.
I have a hunch you are right but there's no point speculating really. REMAIN could still win this, IMO.
I'm convinced, for what it's worth, that Cameron will try to hang on if there is a Brexit win. Unless it was a landslide, which it won't be, I think it's a PM's indeed any politician's natural instinct. Look at Brown when he lost the 2010 GE. Clinging on. Dave will do the same.
If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think he could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case).
If 50+ Tory MPs want to trigger a contest, then so be it.
This might work if the PM had taken a back seat in the campaign. However, he has been front and centre. If leave wins, even his own seat might vote to leave. Overall it would be a stunning rejection of Cameron personally by the voters.
A stunning rejection of what Cameron wanted. Not a stunning rejection of Cameron.
He predicted chaos so he cannot be trusted to run things post-Brexit.
He said Brexit COULD unleash chaos. He will say the No 1 priority would be to now ensure there is no chaos, or as little as possible. I'd agree with him on that.
I'm convinced, for what it's worth, that Cameron will try to hang on if there is a Brexit win. Unless it was a landslide, which it won't be, I think it's a PM's indeed any politician's natural instinct. Look at Brown when he lost the 2010 GE. Clinging on. Dave will do the same.
If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think he could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case).
If 50+ Tory MPs want to trigger a contest, then so be it.
Graham Brady's postman would have a busy morning the day after Cameron said that!
I'm convinced, for what it's worth, that Cameron will try to hang on if there is a Brexit win. Unless it was a landslide, which it won't be, I think it's a PM's indeed any politician's natural instinct. Look at Brown when he lost the 2010 GE. Clinging on. Dave will do the same.
If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think he could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case).
If 50+ Tory MPs want to trigger a contest, then so be it.
This might work if the PM had taken a back seat in the campaign. However, he has been front and centre. If leave wins, even his own seat might vote to leave. Overall it would be a stunning rejection of Cameron personally by the voters.
You are right. If Cameron had copied Harold Wilson he could have continued whichever way the vote went.
I'm convinced, for what it's worth, that Cameron will try to hang on if there is a Brexit win. Unless it was a landslide, which it won't be, I think it's a PM's indeed any politician's natural instinct. Look at Brown when he lost the 2010 GE. Clinging on. Dave will do the same.
If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think he could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case).
If 50+ Tory MPs want to trigger a contest, then so be it.
This might work if the PM had taken a back seat in the campaign. However, he has been front and centre. If leave wins, even his own seat might vote to leave. Overall it would be a stunning rejection of Cameron personally by the voters.
A stunning rejection of what Cameron wanted. Not a stunning rejection of Cameron.
He predicted chaos so he cannot be trusted to run things post-Brexit.
Cameron is sided with the End of Civilisation-ers. Which is clearly mad, as we all know Civ 6 comes out in October....
I'm convinced, for what it's worth, that Cameron will try to hang on if there is a Brexit win. Unless it was a landslide, which it won't be, I think it's a PM's indeed any politician's natural instinct. Look at Brown when he lost the 2010 GE. Clinging on. Dave will do the same.
If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think he could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case).
If 50+ Tory MPs want to trigger a contest, then so be it.
This might work if the PM had taken a back seat in the campaign. However, he has been front and centre. If leave wins, even his own seat might vote to leave. Overall it would be a stunning rejection of Cameron personally by the voters.
On one issue on which he'll most likely still have the backing of (probably) nearly 50 percent of the country, including most of his own MP's. Pretty certain that Camerons views on issues other than Europe are a lot more popular than those of Peter Bone and some of his friends.
I have racked my brains to think of what kind of surprise or shock might favour Remain. About the only one I can think of is a "revelation" that UKIP takes money from the Kremlin.
And I'm not joking. In certain sabre-rattling "let's prevent a lightning attack on the Baltic states" circles, the flow or supposed flow of Russian government money to anti-EU parties in western Europe is talked about quite a lot. It has even been verified in the case of the French National Front.
Hints have been made about Boris too.
But it may be too late now to use this one to win the referendum.
In 1975, the Sun told its readers to vote Remain. Remain won. Later, to use an old-fashioned word, it became "Eurosceptic", capitalising on the xenophobia that from much of the electorate's point of view wasn't adequately represented by any electable political party. The Sun is the Daily Mail for people with lower literacy and numeracy, who watch more TV, who often have difficulty distinguishing between TV characters and the actors who play them, and who enjoy looking at pictures of young women's breasts during their tea-breaks. Yesterday, for the first time, the newspaper explicitly told its readers to vote Leave. THAT is a major moment in this campaign.
Your response suggests you've never met a Sun reader in your life let alone attempted to convince them of anything.
Why don't you say what you think about Sun readers then?
I've met many. I'm aware that some say they know the newspaper is toilet paper but they just need a bit of relaxation.
Perhaps some of the Conservative Leavers could explain which Remainers they would be prepared to see continue to serve in public office after Brexit. It seems that would be a much shorter list.
Of course, the government would still be dependent on Remainer support, so one wonders how they think they are going to persuade the Conservative party to come together.
The Xenophobes Alliance. 149 Tory MPs 9 Labour and 1 UKIP.
At least they've got a majority of UKIP MP
Equating Leave with xenophobia is just such lazy cobblers.
And furthermore it winds leavers up so much they will become 10/10 to vote
Ok- I can try a bit harder to find some words to describe Leavers- nationalism, ignorance, populism, reactionary ideologues, bigots, and of course racists. Not all these apply to each leaver voter- but they would need to have at least one of those components in their DNA to consider voting Brexit.
No doubt some Leavers fall into those categories, but on here there are some Libertarian types quite keen on Leave. Essentially those (RCS?) see all government as bad so want as little of it as possible. Not all Leavers are malicious.
I'm convinced, for what it's worth, that Cameron will try to hang on if there is a Brexit win. Unless it was a landslide, which it won't be, I think it's a PM's indeed any politician's natural instinct. Look at Brown when he lost the 2010 GE. Clinging on. Dave will do the same.
If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think he could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case).
If 50+ Tory MPs want to trigger a contest, then so be it.
This might work if the PM had taken a back seat in the campaign. However, he has been front and centre. If leave wins, even his own seat might vote to leave. Overall it would be a stunning rejection of Cameron personally by the voters.
Given at the last election, the Conservatives obtained less than 40% of the vote, one could reasonably argue on the same line of thinking that the stunning rejection has happened already.
Perhaps some of the Conservative Leavers could explain which Remainers they would be prepared to see continue to serve in public office after Brexit. It seems that would be a much shorter list.
Of course, the government would still be dependent on Remainer support, so one wonders how they think they are going to persuade the Conservative party to come together.
I think alot of the "remainers" aren't that ideological about it and will head over should we Brexit. Ken Clarke excepted
In 1975, the Sun told its readers to vote Remain. Remain won. Later, to use an old-fashioned word, it became "Eurosceptic", capitalising on the xenophobia that from much of the electorate's point of view wasn't adequately represented by any electable political party. The Sun is the Daily Mail for people with lower literacy and numeracy, who watch more TV, who often have difficulty distinguishing between TV characters and the actors who play them, and who enjoy looking at pictures of young women's breasts during their tea-breaks. Yesterday, for the first time, the newspaper explicitly told its readers to vote Leave. THAT is a major moment in this campaign.
Your response suggests you've never met a Sun reader in your life let alone attempted to convince them of anything.
Why don't you say what you think about Sun readers then?
I've met many. I'm aware that some say they know the newspaper is toilet paper but they just need a bit of relaxation.
I quite often read the Sun when I find a copy lying round. The sports coverage is really good. Not much else is though!
I'm convinced, for what it's worth, that Cameron will try to hang on if there is a Brexit win. Unless it was a landslide, which it won't be, I think it's a PM's indeed any politician's natural instinct. Look at Brown when he lost the 2010 GE. Clinging on. Dave will do the same.
If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think he could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case).
If 50+ Tory MPs want to trigger a contest, then so be it.
This might work if the PM had taken a back seat in the campaign. However, he has been front and centre. If leave wins, even his own seat might vote to leave. Overall it would be a stunning rejection of Cameron personally by the voters.
A stunning rejection of what Cameron wanted. Not a stunning rejection of Cameron.
He predicted chaos so he cannot be trusted to run things post-Brexit.
Cameron is sided with the End of Civilisation-ers. Which is clearly mad, as we all know Civ 6 comes out in October....
Perhaps some of the Conservative Leavers could explain which Remainers they would be prepared to see continue to serve in public office after Brexit. It seems that would be a much shorter list.
Of course, the government would still be dependent on Remainer support, so one wonders how they think they are going to persuade the Conservative party to come together.
Remember though, that Remainers are not "true Conservatives" but TRAITORS.
Supporting BoZo is an opportunity for them to atone for their sins
Further to my earlier post, I wonder if there has been some discussion between Cameron and say Boris/Gove to talk through the "Brexit win" scenario - eg, how the country responds to the vote, what we do next, a deal with Gove and Boris that gets them up there front and centre as (eg) Sec of State for Brexit or Deputy PM?
I'm fairly certain Cameron/Osborne and Gove/Boris are not talking to each other at the moment.
If their intermediaries were, we'd hear about it.
They will start talking in the small hours of 24th June, if there is a Leave win.
But, I expect a very small number of civil servants are, right now, locked away in a room somewhere working on a totally innocuous project under a totally innocuous name.
The Russian angle... I have racked my brains to think of what kind of surprise or shock might favour Remain. .........
I fear a Vow that delivers real immigration cuts and a cut in the money paid to the EU. 7 days to put it together but Cameron is quiet today.
A 2016 version of "The Vow" is going to be almost impossible logistically. It would need another renegotiation, almost a virtual EU leaders' summit, after which DC would lay out the deal and all the other EU leaders would be expected to say nothing to anyone, even their own electorates, for want of increasing the sentiment towards Leave. Can't see it happening, the time for renegotiation was back in February, and Cameron blew it.
An Osborne-appointed Governor of the Bank of England, who was appointed by Osborne after the referendum was announced, mirrors his bosses view rather than his predecessors.
A Leave vote will be an unalloyed good for the UK and for the body politic.
You forgot "a price worth paying"
No - I simply don't think there will be a price. I want a weaker Pound - our balance of payments surely needs it. I want to lose influence in order to regain control. I welcome wage rises. I welcome cheaper food prices as we leave the CAP. I welcome a shock to the establishment - their undisguised contempt for the lower orders disgusts me. I call bullshit on 99% of the scaremongering. We'll be hugely better in the short term as well as the long term. I also think a Brexit will give the EU project itself a fatal injection. I have zero desire to see the creation of the U.S.E. even if we aren't in it. I want the Euro to split up. The chance to vote Leave is a once in a lifetime opportunity. I'm gonna take it.
I am a bit surprised Labour haven't made that explicit call. Yet.
How would they phrase it? Would they say Cameron has failed to persuade people of the wonderful benefits of EU membership? Or would they say "If you don't want a Pole for neighbour, vote Labour"?
A stunning rejection of what Cameron wanted. Not a stunning rejection of Cameron.
A vote of no confidence in the Government
General Election please.
I am a bit surprised Labour haven't made that explicit call. Yet.
No doubt they will take the opportunity, but since it would also have been a vote of no confidence from Labour voters in Labour policy, they'd be better off doing a bit of taking stock & re-jigging ideas first.
If you think all men find women like Priti Patel appealing, think again. She joins the group of Coulter and Hopkins- sexually repulsive. Ideological, gobby, right wing women.....please. I'd prefer a gentle cuddle and cup of coffee with Angela Merkel.
Angela over Priti is a fairly narrow slice of the male population...
Angela over Priti....... the mind boggles.
Priti over Hertsmere Pubgoer is a very interesting option.
Perhaps some of the Conservative Leavers could explain which Remainers they would be prepared to see continue to serve in public office after Brexit. It seems that would be a much shorter list.
Of course, the government would still be dependent on Remainer support, so one wonders how they think they are going to persuade the Conservative party to come together.
Maybe those constituencies where Leave has won will give the sitting Conservative MPs there a nudge to persuade them what they want to do? If Leave wins, I suspect those seats where the Conservative MP is for Remain and gets a Remain majority will be rather few and far between.
Perhaps some of the Conservative Leavers could explain which Remainers they would be prepared to see continue to serve in public office after Brexit. It seems that would be a much shorter list.
Of course, the government would still be dependent on Remainer support, so one wonders how they think they are going to persuade the Conservative party to come together.
May Hammond Greening McLoughlin Javid Mundell Halfon Hands Wright
@Pulpstar 10 ideologues would be enough to wreck the government. Leavers can reel off lists of anything up to 50 Conservative MPs who are on the traitor list. Are they to be expected to spend the rest of this Parliament obediently doing as they're told?
An Osborne-appointed Governor of the Bank of England, who was appointed by Osborne after the referendum was announced, mirrors his bosses view rather than his predecessors.
And you still want to sack him "for being right"
I ask again, who else is on "your little list" ? How far does the purge go?
Jezza's views on all this is the strangest of anyone. He's been for LEAVE for 40 years... He was for LEAVE before half the people voting in this referendum were even born!
No wonder Labour voters are confused. They know Corbyn is really for LEAVE. And Corbyn must know that they know he is for LEAVE...
In the privacy of the polling booth he'll cross his fingers and vote OUT with the hand's of Benn and Foot resting on his shoulders.
@rowenamason: Jeremy Corbyn really going for Johnson, Gove and Farage, calling them wolves in sheep's clothing when it comes to the NHS
Who gives a flying fudgecake what he demands? That's not the way democracy works in this country. Cameron demanded an early election in 2008 but we never got one did we?
@Pulpstar 10 ideologues would be enough to wreck the government. Leavers can reel off lists of anything up to 50 Conservative MPs who are on the traitor list. Are they to be expected to spend the rest of this Parliament obediently doing as they're told?
The current cabinet, most of whom appear about to be culled, could derail the BoZo project if they wanted to.
I have racked my brains to think of what kind of surprise or shock might favour Remain. About the only one I can think of is a "revelation" that UKIP takes money from the Kremlin
If you think all men find women like Priti Patel appealing, think again. She joins the group of Coulter and Hopkins- sexually repulsive. Ideological, gobby, right wing women.....please. I'd prefer a gentle cuddle and cup of coffee with Angela Merkel.
Angela over Priti is a fairly narrow slice of the male population...
Angela over Priti....... the mind boggles.
Priti over Hertsmere Pubgoer is a very interesting option.
Perhaps some of the Conservative Leavers could explain which Remainers they would be prepared to see continue to serve in public office after Brexit. It seems that would be a much shorter list.
Of course, the government would still be dependent on Remainer support, so one wonders how they think they are going to persuade the Conservative party to come together.
Not a Conservative, but for myself I'd be fairly happy to see any of them continue after a Leave vote.
The whole of the establishment is going to need to do a re-think. The government of the day is merely the tip of the iceberg.
Perhaps some of the Conservative Leavers could explain which Remainers they would be prepared to see continue to serve in public office after Brexit. It seems that would be a much shorter list.
Of course, the government would still be dependent on Remainer support, so one wonders how they think they are going to persuade the Conservative party to come together.
May Hammond Greening McLoughlin Javid Mundell Halfon Hands Wright
Who gives a flying fudgecake what he demands? That's not the way democracy works in this country. Cameron demanded an early election in 2008 but we never got one did we?
The Government in 2008 had not lost a referendum it supported.
An Osborne-appointed Governor of the Bank of England, who was appointed by Osborne after the referendum was announced, mirrors his bosses view rather than his predecessors.
And you still want to sack him "for being right"
I ask again, who else is on "your little list" ? How far does the purge go?
I don't want to sack him and he's not right. I want him to do his job and if he incapable of doing his job he should resign and someone in the mould of his well respected predecessor should be able to do the job instead.
Though I think he will be able to do his job just fine.
Perhaps some of the Conservative Leavers could explain which Remainers they would be prepared to see continue to serve in public office after Brexit. It seems that would be a much shorter list.
Of course, the government would still be dependent on Remainer support, so one wonders how they think they are going to persuade the Conservative party to come together.
The second paragraph is the relevant point. This referendum may determine what the policy of the Conservative party is going forward but it will remain a coalition with a range of views within it and that should be respected in appointments. I really can't see Boris or Gove having a problem with that. In fact they are more likely to have problems with some of the more excitable elements on their own side.
There will also be a very active discussion as to what the policy (within the Leave umbrella) should be going forward and Remainers will have to play a significant role in that, at least they will if the government wants to retain a majority.
Who gives a flying fudgecake what he demands? That's not the way democracy works in this country. Cameron demanded an early election in 2008 but we never got one did we?
The Government in 2008 had not lost a referendum it supported.
Apart from that, great example...
If the government falls a new government is appointed from within the MPs of Parliament. Same as when Thatcher fell after the poll tax riots etc. If Cameron goes there is no reason why Gove or Johnson can not take his place and serve out the rest of the term.
The opposition can demand chocolate rain and a Christmas that never ends, it isn't going to get it.
Who gives a flying fudgecake what he demands? That's not the way democracy works in this country. Cameron demanded an early election in 2008 but we never got one did we?
The Government in 2008 had not lost a referendum it supported.
Apart from that, great example...
If the government falls a new government is appointed from within the MPs of Parliament. Same as when Thatcher fell after the poll tax riots etc. If Cameron goes there is no reason why Gove or Johnson can not take his place and serve out the rest of the term.
Laura Kuenssberg Verified account @bbclaurak At Corbyn event, just been speaking to dep leader Tom Watson - he tells me there should be controls on freedom of movement for EU migrants
There was an ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph a few days before the Referendum with figures of 48% Yes 42% No 10% DK.
If you think all men find women like Priti Patel appealing, think again. She joins the group of Coulter and Hopkins- sexually repulsive. Ideological, gobby, right wing women.....please. I'd prefer a gentle cuddle and cup of coffee with Angela Merkel.
Angela over Priti is a fairly narrow slice of the male population...
Angela over Priti....... the mind boggles.
Priti over Hertsmere Pubgoer is a very interesting option.
Disgusting filth from you Mr Pubgoer.
Read my thread header for classy, dignified comments.
If you think all men find women like Priti Patel appealing, think again. She joins the group of Coulter and Hopkins- sexually repulsive. Ideological, gobby, right wing women.....please. I'd prefer a gentle cuddle and cup of coffee with Angela Merkel.
Angela over Priti is a fairly narrow slice of the male population...
Angela over Priti....... the mind boggles.
Priti over Hertsmere Pubgoer is a very interesting option.
The loopier Europhiles are now making up imaginary things Eurosceptics will say after Brexit. They are not very bright. But that is what you would expect from the reactionary bigots who want to keep the "White Britain" preference in immigration. I am glad we are turning away from their Little Europe, Mosleyite vision. We are a better people than that.
I believe that for most of us on the LEAVE side of the fence, our decision was a fairly close call .... certainly it was for me. I felt that the unelected powers that be in the EU were simply too greedy, too power grabbing, too federalist and too socialist for my liking and what's more .... likely to become more of all these things with the passage of time. Against these dislikes, I had to consider the undoubted advantages of the UK being a member state, coupled with the potentially major problems associated with leaving. Yes, it was a close call for me, possibly only a few percentage points either way, but my mind is made up.
There will also be a very active discussion as to what the policy (within the Leave umbrella) should be going forward and Remainers will have to play a significant role in that, at least they will if the government wants to retain a majority.
And there's the rub.
I expect there is a majority opinion within the Leave camp for freedom of movement, which after their campaign of stigma can't retain a majority at an election.
The Russian angle... I have racked my brains to think of what kind of surprise or shock might favour Remain. .........
I fear a Vow that delivers real immigration cuts and a cut in the money paid to the EU. 7 days to put it together but Cameron is quiet today.
A 2016 version of "The Vow" is going to be almost impossible logistically. It would need another renegotiation, almost a virtual EU leaders' summit, after which DC would lay out the deal and all the other EU leaders would be expected to say nothing to anyone, even their own electorates, for want of increasing the sentiment towards Leave. Can't see it happening, the time for renegotiation was back in February, and Cameron blew it.
Yes difficult but. 1. A rebate could come straight from Germany agreeing to pay more to keep us in. 2. The temporary emergency brake had already been discussed so it would just need to be dusted off and a round robin type vote taken.
@Pulpstar 10 ideologues would be enough to wreck the government. Leavers can reel off lists of anything up to 50 Conservative MPs who are on the traitor list. Are they to be expected to spend the rest of this Parliament obediently doing as they're told?
Yes.
Because the country and the Party and the Party Membership and their constituency party demand it. It will be career suicide for any Remainer to continue to oppose Leave after a Leave referendum win. Which MPs do you think will put the EU ahead of their own career?
@TSE In the event of Brexit, we're out. Quite apart from the fact that Leavers have to be given time and space to implement their mandate (once they decide what that is), the rest of the EU won't have Britain back unless they're 100% sure that we'd stay for good. That isn't a position that Britain would be in for the foreseeable future.
If we vote Leave, the choice is to all intents and purposes final, no matter how poor a choice it might be.
@Pulpstar 10 ideologues would be enough to wreck the government. Leavers can reel off lists of anything up to 50 Conservative MPs who are on the traitor list. Are they to be expected to spend the rest of this Parliament obediently doing as they're told?
Serious Europhiles are tiny in number in the Tory party. Probably less than 10 in total. Most of the rest of them have sided with Cameron out of fear for their jobs or loyalty to the PM.
@Philip_Thompson The middle ground of British politics is looking invitingly empty right now and there's another group of MPs staring at it from the other side.
Remainers are not without options, if they're brave enough.
@TSE In the event of Brexit, we're out. Quite apart from the fact that Leavers have to be given time and space to implement their mandate (once they decide what that is), the rest of the EU won't have Britain back unless they're 100% sure that we'd stay for good. That isn't a position that Britain would be in for the foreseeable future.
If we vote Leave, the choice is to all intents and purposes final, no matter how poor a choice it might be.
Nothing is ever final. For shits and giggles, just imagine if a sovereign parliament rejoined the EU after being elected on a manifesto to do just that.
I believe that for most of us on the LEAVE side of the fence, our decision was a fairly close call .... certainly it was for me. I felt that the unelected powers that be in the EU were simply too greedy, too power grabbing, too federalist and too socialist for my liking and what's more .... likely to become more of all these things with the passage of time. Against these dislikes, I had to consider the undoubted advantages of the UK being a member state, coupled with the potentially major problems associated with leaving. Yes, it was a close call for me, possibly only a few percentage points either way, but my mind is made up.
"I felt that the unelected powers that be in the EU were simply too greedy, too power grabbing, too federalist and too socialist..." I was nodding in agreement until that last bit!
I have racked my brains to think of what kind of surprise or shock might favour Remain. About the only one I can think of is a "revelation" that UKIP takes money from the Kremlin
"Russia is no longer restricted in its choice of foreign friends by considerations of ideology, and one notable result is a surge in links with right-wing and anti-EU parties, whose agenda falls in well with Russian state objectives and whose supporters are not always immune to the attraction of President Putin’s declared support for traditional values.
By "declared support for traditional values", Keir Giles means "cash".
Boris was recently labelled a "Putin apologist" - a term put out by "Number Ten" if I'm not mistaken?
The more I think about it, the more the next PM looks like being Michael Gove.
Comments
I was in such a stunned state of silence, I didn't get chance to follow-up!
Ok- I can try a bit harder to find some words to describe Leavers- nationalism, ignorance, populism, reactionary ideologues, bigots, and of course racists. Not all these apply to each leaver voter- but they would need to have at least one of those components in their DNA to consider voting Brexit.
I'm not suggesting that immigration isn't a problem, it's obviously too high, although not just from the EU. However it is the prime motivation for a lot of Leave voters and anyone trying to delude themselves that isn't the case is just wrong.
As I think she is already out of her depth.
You want him sacked if there is market turmoil...
Who else is on your little list?
Juncker: "...Cameron didn't have enough REMAIN supporters. The Referendum victory never took place!"
[Angela pauses to take off her glasses]
Angela: "The following stay here: Schaueble, Juncker, Kinnock, Barroso."
[The four named EUrocrats remain in the room as the others leave. The door closes behind them]
Angela: "That was an order! Cameron's attack was an order! How dare you ignore my orders?!"
[Angela's ranting is clearly audible outside the room]
Angela: "Is this what it came to? The EU big wigs, everybody lied to me! Even the BSE campaign! The REMAINERS are no more than a bunch of disloyal cowards!"
Your response suggests you've never met a Sun reader in your life let alone attempted to convince them of anything.
I have racked my brains to think of what kind of surprise or shock might favour Remain. About the only one I can think of is a "revelation" that UKIP takes money from the Kremlin.
And I'm not joking. In certain sabre-rattling "let's prevent a lightning attack on the Baltic states" circles, the flow or supposed flow of Russian government money to anti-EU parties in western Europe is talked about quite a lot. It has even been verified in the case of the French National Front.
Hints have been made about Boris too.
But it may be too late now to use this one to win the referendum.
General Election please.
I am a bit surprised Labour haven't made that explicit call. Yet.
@rowenamason: Jeremy Corbyn really going for Johnson, Gove and Farage, calling them wolves in sheep's clothing when it comes to the NHS
I've met many. I'm aware that some say they know the newspaper is toilet paper but they just need a bit of relaxation.
Of course, the government would still be dependent on Remainer support, so one wonders how they think they are going to persuade the Conservative party to come together.
Supporting BoZo is an opportunity for them to atone for their sins
If their intermediaries were, we'd hear about it.
They will start talking in the small hours of 24th June, if there is a Leave win.
But, I expect a very small number of civil servants are, right now, locked away in a room somewhere working on a totally innocuous project under a totally innocuous name.
Indeed. A vote for Leave would be a bigger vote of no confidence in Labour, given the position taken by their MPs.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/mar/07/eu-referendum-fallon-says-brexit-campaign-pushing-conspiracy-theories-over-longworth-resignation-politics-live
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/20/economic-threat-of-brexit-is-being-exaggerated-says-former-bank/
An Osborne-appointed Governor of the Bank of England, who was appointed by Osborne after the referendum was announced, mirrors his bosses view rather than his predecessors.
"We have voted to Leave, and I understand that, but which party do youtrust to spend the money on the NHS?"
I can see that playing well in a large part of the country.
Hammond
Greening
McLoughlin
Javid
Mundell
Halfon
Hands
Wright
I ask again, who else is on "your little list" ? How far does the purge go?
No wonder Labour voters are confused. They know Corbyn is really for LEAVE. And Corbyn must know that they know he is for LEAVE...
In the privacy of the polling booth he'll cross his fingers and vote OUT with the hand's of Benn and Foot resting on his shoulders.
The whole of the establishment is going to need to do a re-think. The government of the day is merely the tip of the iceberg.
Apart from that, great example...
Though I think he will be able to do his job just fine.
There will also be a very active discussion as to what the policy (within the Leave umbrella) should be going forward and Remainers will have to play a significant role in that, at least they will if the government wants to retain a majority.
The opposition can demand chocolate rain and a Christmas that never ends, it isn't going to get it.
Had a list of targets in his house and vehicle.
Just sayin'
Read my thread header for classy, dignified comments.
I felt that the unelected powers that be in the EU were simply too greedy, too power grabbing, too federalist and too socialist for my liking and what's more .... likely to become more of all these things with the passage of time.
Against these dislikes, I had to consider the undoubted advantages of the UK being a member state, coupled with the potentially major problems associated with leaving.
Yes, it was a close call for me, possibly only a few percentage points either way, but my mind is made up.
I expect there is a majority opinion within the Leave camp for freedom of movement, which after their campaign of stigma can't retain a majority at an election.
oops
1. A rebate could come straight from Germany agreeing to pay more to keep us in.
2. The temporary emergency brake had already been discussed so it would just need to be dusted off and a round robin type vote taken.
Because the country and the Party and the Party Membership and their constituency party demand it. It will be career suicide for any Remainer to continue to oppose Leave after a Leave referendum win. Which MPs do you think will put the EU ahead of their own career?
Unless he performs at truly extraordinary levels over the coming weeks and months.
If we vote Leave, the choice is to all intents and purposes final, no matter how poor a choice it might be.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/14/the-orlando-shooting-is-not-about-owen-jones-despite-what-his-ha/
Might be slight problem
Remainers are not without options, if they're brave enough.
Did he mumble everything after the first ten words?
Reports multiply of Kremlin links to anti-EU parties. That article is referenced in this research paper published by Chatham House.
Quoting from the latter
"Russia is no longer restricted in its choice of foreign friends by considerations of ideology, and one notable result is a surge in links with right-wing and anti-EU parties, whose agenda falls in well with Russian state objectives and whose supporters are not always immune to the attraction of President Putin’s declared support for traditional values.
By "declared support for traditional values", Keir Giles means "cash".
Boris was recently labelled a "Putin apologist" - a term put out by "Number Ten" if I'm not mistaken?
The more I think about it, the more the next PM looks like being Michael Gove.
https://mobile.twitter.com/guardian/status/742339942295179264