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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527

    No - cheaper NZ sauvignon blanc.

    Yummy. So much better than french sauvignon blanc.
    The very fact that you see the grape variety as the brand shows that the New World is winning.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    timmo said:

    Well as long as Wainbody ward has an electorate of around 2million then the remain side should be fine.
    http://www.coventry.gov.uk/info/8/elections_and_voting/2722/coventry_city_council_local_election_results_-_5_may_2016/16 :D
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Sandpit said:

    That's lower than I thought it would be, then I remember that they don't have me down an an overseas voter, being registered at my old address and having someone send it here and back again. Probably most who are only away for a couple of years are registered like that.

    There have been quite a few friends and acquaintances that have registered from abroad for this referendum, so the numbers may now be higher.
    Very few people will be in your circumstance of having someone at your old address keeping you on the register.

    Anyhow, the point I wanted to make over this series of posts is there is a general acceptance that NI and overseas voters are worth something like 3% - 4% for remain.

    I think I've demonstrated factually that this isn't the case, all up I doubt they are worth even 1% net.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527
    edited June 2016

    Why is it scaremongering? If we are outside the EU, why would the EU offer us far better conditions than it does to Japan, the US and Australia? Especially when it stands to benefit from the possible transfer of investment by, e.g., Japanese car manufacturers.
    It's also fascinating how people who've spent years banging on about how the EU is a political, not an economic project now think that the EU will negotiate with us on purely economic terms and forget the politics.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Barnesian said:

    Swing back to Remain on Betfair from 55%/45% back to 60%/40% over last hour or so.

    Entirely expected profit taking
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,370

    The Markets are getting impatient that nobody has sacked Osborne yet.
    The FTSE would probably jump 5% if that happened.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Barnesian said:

    Swing back to Remain on Betfair from 55%/45% back to 60%/40% over last hour or so.

    It hit 55%/45%?!?!
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Barnesian said:

    Swing back to Remain on Betfair from 55%/45% back to 60%/40% over last hour or so.

    Maybe there's a poll at 12.00, or 2.00pm or 4pm or...

    Or maybe it's people changing their position.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    weejonnie said:

    Well FINALLY! Someone realises that no vote next Thursday is for the status quo.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ck3xlFmUYAAmK4E.jpg
    That's a cracking cartoon - stuck it on Twitter.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Any news on Jack W?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,163
    weejonnie said:

    Maybe there's a poll at 12.00, or 2.00pm or 4pm or...

    Or maybe it's people changing their position.
    Brit Elects says next poll is Wed.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited June 2016

    Is 10/10, a measure of will definitely be voting, or does it also check they are registered to actually vote?
    Some run checks on registration - but the key point is that the pollsters are already whacking in turnout filters based on prior behaviour and previously observed turnout.

    At the last election the electorate was around 46m - about 90% of the people at voting age.

    London (remain's best hope) alone will have 1m + barred this around on citizenship grounds.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,010

    Usual scaremongering

    The EU is not in a position to start a trade war on cars we import about 1 million more of the things from them than we sell them.

    Why would we choose to make cars more expensive to buy and reduce consumer choice?

  • TonyE said:

    Any deal would leave the UK outside of the customs union, even EEA.
    Yes, that wasn't what I meant. I meant that any future free trade deal with the EU would surely include requirements for us to continue charging tariffs on external trade. Why, for example, would the EU forgo an 10% import tariff on cars from the UK if we allow tariff-free import of cars from, e.g. the US? Cheap cars would pour into the EU via the UK, decimating the EU car industry. It simply wouldn't make sense for them to allow this.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Has MikeK started posting FTSE 100 updates yet?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,440
    tlg86 said:

    I love Twitter, just found this gem from Claire Perry on May 8, 2015:

    https://twitter.com/claire4devizes/status/596580146267697153

    That's not Claire Perry's best tweet from May 8th 2015, this is.

    https://twitter.com/claire4devizes/status/596544699529297921
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited June 2016

    Yes, we had a case in the most Tory/UKIP part of Broxtowe where the Latvian couple running the local pub, who'd rescued it from near-dereliction to a popular local watering-hole, were seized and deported with their kid at 7am one morning, less than a year before Latvia joined the EU so they'd have been entitled to stay anyway. Photos in the local paper of baby's toys left abandoned in the scramble etc. People who I'd known for years as rigorously anti-immigration were incensed; conversely, the head of the team who'd deported them said, exasperated, "Do people want the rules followed strictly or not?"
    A sad story. I think most of the exasperation of things like this, is the sense that the authorities are picking the easy targets, people who are causing no harm and not being a drain on the State, rather than those who abuse our hospitality then claim Human Rights to stop the govt kicking them out.

    As I said upthread, the easiest way to settle back in the UK with my wife would be her to arrive on a visit visa then sue the govt for her right to remain. She'd probably get legal aid to do it too, maybe even our MP could put in a good word for her ;)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    Why is it scaremongering? If we are outside the EU, why would the EU offer us far better conditions than it does to Japan, the US and Australia? Especially when it stands to benefit from the possible transfer of investment by, e.g., Japanese car manufacturers.
    Because it's exporting more than it's importing. Why would it want to cut it's own throat ? Equally why would those EU companies in the UK VW, BMW, Renault\Nissan be desperate for their factories to stand still ? An empty factory is really expensive to run.

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sean_F said:

    The FTSE would probably jump 5% if that happened.
    When Robert Brace stood down as BT's FD, their shareprice rose by 5%.

    It did amuse us.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @OldKingCole If Leave win, those who sought it need to be left to pursue it to its logical conclusion. There can be no arguments about stabs in the backs or cheating the British public.

    Yes, it would probably be grim, but the public are entitled to have their vote honoured.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,089

    Yes, that wasn't what I meant. I meant that any future free trade deal with the EU would surely include requirements for us to continue charging tariffs on external trade. Why, for example, would the EU forgo an 10% import tariff on cars from the UK if we allow tariff-free import of cars from, e.g. the US? Cheap cars would pour into the EU via the UK, decimating the EU car industry. It simply wouldn't make sense for them to allow this.
    The EFTA countries are free - either collectively or en mass - to enter into trade deals. So, see China's (admittedly rather one-sided) deal with Switzerland, or the Canada deal with EFTA.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Mr. Scrapheap, Mr. K's currently unable to post. It's been looked into.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,304

    Simply pointing out one of your failings Roger. You are a bigot who views his fellow countrymen with disdain and has never been afraid to make that perfectly obvious. I have no idea whether it is because of a life time spent in advertising or just some innate sense of superiority you feel. But it is clear in your comments.
    I wasn't complaining. It was just something that struck me and I was curious.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    @OldKingCole If Leave win, those who sought it need to be left to pursue it to its logical conclusion. There can be no arguments about stabs in the backs or cheating the British public.

    Yes, it would probably be grim, but the public are entitled to have their vote honoured.

    that's very kind of you
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    rcs1000 said:

    Given Japanese and American car companies already have substantial European production, I don't buy that they'll start shipping halfway around the world. Furthermore, US production tends to be much more 'light truck' oriented, and I'm not sure demand is that high in the UK for 15mpg F Series pick ups or 12mpg Chevrolet Eldorado.

    I also don't buy the idea that the UK government will unilaterally cut tariffs - because if your tariffs are zero, then our leverage to persuade others to open up their markets to our companies disappears.
    Mr. Robert, Japanese car companies already ship some models half-way round the world as not all models that are sold in Europe are built here. The Honda Jazz for example is imported from Japan. It is also a very high selling car with a cash price of about £14k, my local Honda dealer tells me he can't get enough of them.

    So whatever tariff there is on imported cars it doesn't seem to make a difference to their sales.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    Why would we choose to make cars more expensive to buy and reduce consumer choice?

    What evidence do you have to say that ?

    The problem todays car industry has is there is too much choice, it;s why profitability gets hammered. You appear to think that one of the world's most globalised industries only operates out of France and Germany.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    PlatoSaid said:

    When Robert Brace stood down as BT's FD, their shareprice rose by 5%.

    It did amuse us.
    Same with Carly Fiorina at HP.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337

    The people decide. For they are sovereign.

    Indeed. But even for those MPs who don't want to leave the EU, taking such action would likely lead to things they would not want, like a Corbyn government, or hard left anyway, as the Tories aren't winning a GE if they are split in two.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,017

    The Markets are getting impatient that nobody has sacked Osborne yet.
    Sacking the Chancellor is good for markets? You live and learn.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Why would we choose to make cars more expensive to buy and reduce consumer choice?

    If Remain claims about currency movements are correct, tariffs would be negated for our exporters, while EU companies would find exporting to the UK a much harder grind.

    For that reason alone, the EU will not want to engage in tariff disputes.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,010

    What evidence do you have to say that ?

    The problem todays car industry has is there is too much choice, it;s why profitability gets hammered. You appear to think that one of the world's most globalised industries only operates out of France and Germany.

    No, I am responding to your claim that there would be no trade war because we import more of their cars than they import of ours. I don't get that logic, as what you are actually saying is that buyers of cars in the UK would be more negatively affected by a trade war than those in the EU. That surely gives the EU the upper hand.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,814

    Why is it scaremongering? If we are outside the EU, why would the EU offer us far better conditions than it does to Japan, the US and Australia? Especially when it stands to benefit from the possible transfer of investment by, e.g., Japanese car manufacturers.
    There will be a deal that gives something something to both sides. But it will favour the EU more than us. Because

    a) We need the deal more
    b) The EU will be leading the negotiations according to its timetable.

    I was in Wetherspoons yesterday reading its Brexit magazine, where the founder was saying it's just like negotiating with one of his suppliers. In fact a big supply contract was coming up for renegotiation. While a deal wasn't guaranteed both companies expect a deal satisfactory for both. I thought that analogy was closer than Tim Martin realised. What Wetherspoons thinks is satisfactory and what his supplier thinks is probably quite different because of their different negotiating powers. Wetherspoons would be the EU and the supplier the UK
  • rcs1000 said:

    The EFTA countries are free - either collectively or en mass - to enter into trade deals. So, see China's (admittedly rather one-sided) deal with Switzerland, or the Canada deal with EFTA.
    That's not answering my question. How can it possibly make sense for, say, cars to be imported from the US to the UK with zero tariff and then imported from the UK to the EU with zero tariff, but cars imported directly from the US to the EU to be subject to a 10% tariff?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,304

    The political aftermath will be interesting. Cameron will be gone quickly and a leaver in his place. But at least the Tory vote will then be in line with a sizable chunk of their MPS and their new leader.

    If it's Leave then Labour are in big trouble. A leadership challenge is being muttered about - but from the same Continuity New Labour faction who always mutter, and they are fanatical Remainers. Corbyn will have followed party policy and promoted Remain, but if as it looks a good number of party supporters (or more preciently *former* supporters) are Leavers then the party is further than ever from its voters with the activists trying to pull it even further away.

    There are 459 MPs for REMAIN 159 for LEAVE. What happens next if Leave win-like so much else-is a mystery. Maybe the Rupert Murdoch's Soaraway Sun can become the government?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    No - cheaper NZ sauvignon blanc.

    Yummy. So much better than french sauvignon blanc.
    That is my cue to mention Cook's Bay, a New Zealand sauvignon blanc, a really spiffiing table wine. £6.50 at my local off-licence absolutely stunning value.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    No, I am responding to your claim that there would be no trade war because we import more of their cars than they import of ours. I don't get that logic, as what you are actually saying is that buyers of cars in the UK would be more negatively affected by a trade war than those in the EU. That surely gives the EU the upper hand.
    Not at all, the Japanese and Koreans will more than fill any gap in consumer choice and that's before you add in the USA and China.

    The only area I can see an issue on cars is luxury marques, but if it means the british middle classes have to struggle by in a Jaguar, Bentley or Lexus I'm sure they'll survive.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,010
    chestnut said:

    If Remain claims about currency movements are correct, tariffs would be negated for our exporters, while EU companies would find exporting to the UK a much harder grind.

    For that reason alone, the EU will not want to engage in tariff disputes.

    Why? We buy more of their stuff, so it will be British consumers who will either have to face higher prices. In the face of reduced competition the response of a seller is to raise prices anyway, so it's not as if we will get huge savings by importing from elsewhere.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,089



    That's not answering my question. How can it possibly make sense for, say, cars to be imported from the US to the UK with zero tariff and then imported from the UK to the EU with zero tariff, but cars imported directly from the US to the EU to be subject to a 10% tariff?

    That's not how tariffs work. There are re-export clauses (and percent of work created clauses) in the deals that Norway - for example has with the EU. It cannot import an Embrear train from Canada and then re-export it free of tariffs to the rest of the EU.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337

    On the subject of personal attacks, @SeanT's stirring call for everyone to rally around a post-Brexit Britain and his genuine incredulity was touching when I said that I had no intention of hanging together with the Leavers who are taking our country on a potentially disastrous course. It might have been still more touching if he hadn't earlier in the month expressed a wish to see me (and others) dead.

    Magnanimous in (expected) victory, vicious in (expected) defeat.
  • Jobabob said:

    One thing I would say is that Leave is indeed relying on a group from poor WWC Labour strongholds which often have low turnout/registration rates.

    Of course, much of this is simply due to the fact that there is not much point voting in places like Doncaster, as the result is a foregone conclusion. But that fact in and of itself may indeed depress registration rates.

    By contrast, Remain's middle class professional vote are usually high turnout.

    I write this as a Leave backer, and a Remain supporter.
    One difference with the young is that the WWC often live in the same place for years, so may well be registered even if they haven't voted in a while.

    If we look at say Barnsley Central, the population in 2011 was 85,714 and the electorate in 2010 was 64,732. So that's 75% registration rate which isn't bad if you consider some will be children. Of that 57% turned out at the last election

    If we compare with Cambridge, the population in 2011 was 114,740 and the electorate in 2010 was 75,259. So that's 65% registration rate which makes sense if you consider there will be EU nationals there etc who aren't eligible to vote. Of that 62% turned out to vote
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Mr. Robert, Japanese car companies already ship some models half-way round the world as not all models that are sold in Europe are built here. The Honda Jazz for example is imported from Japan. It is also a very high selling car with a cash price of about £14k, my local Honda dealer tells me he can't get enough of them.

    So whatever tariff there is on imported cars it doesn't seem to make a difference to their sales.
    I happily spent over £50k on a BMW and a Merc in my previous life. If it was 51k - would I change my choice = of course not.

    It's an absurd argument. Those buying premium brands buy premium brands. Every white good in my house was Bosch.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Ye gods I'm back!

    If anyone wants to know why I keep disappearing from time to time, it's because someone on PB habitually puts me in Limbo* for various periods and for reasons only known to them.

    If anyone thinks I'm being paranoid - I am.

    *applicant status; where one can sign in but cannot post.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,010

    Not at all, the Japanese and Koreans will more than fill any gap in consumer choice and that's before you add in the USA and China.

    The only area I can see an issue on cars is luxury marques, but if it means the british middle classes have to struggle by in a Jaguar, Bentley or Lexus I'm sure they'll survive.

    Sure, they'd fill the gap happily enough. And raise their prices to reflect the reduced competition. Isn't that how capitalism works?

  • BlueKenBlueKen Posts: 33
    It looks like a EuroVow is coming.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2014/06/who-runs-our-mosques/

    Ed Balls has said we should renegotiate to get something on migration so I suspect they will now offer an emergency brake after all.
  • rcs1000 said:

    That's not how tariffs work. There are re-export clauses (and percent of work created clauses) in the deals that Norway - for example has with the EU. It cannot import an Embrear train from Canada and then re-export it free of tariffs to the rest of the EU.
    Ah, I see. That sounds rather bureaucratic and open to abuse though. Wouldn't it result in a large (black?) market in US cars being imported through the UK to the EU in order to avoid the 10% tariff?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited June 2016
    Are the pollsters giving up? Wow.
    The conspiracy theorist might surmise that they don't want headlines of Leave leads the week before that might effect that outcome, more likely they haven't got a clue and don't want headlines like they got last May about all the polls being crap!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    MikeK said:

    Ye gods I'm back!

    If anyone wants to know why I keep disappearing from time to time, it's because someone on PB habitually puts me in Limbo* for various periods and for reasons only known to them.

    If anyone thinks I'm being paranoid - I am.

    *applicant status; where one can sign in but cannot post.

    It's a conspiracy... there's a few about on PB in these heady days...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    Well, quite.

    High immigration is linked to a booming economy. As Osborne has noted, you can reduce immigration significantly by crashing the economy. Not sure that is BoZo's ideal scenario
    So the Conservatives played us for fools then when promising to get it down into the 10's of thousands.

    Glad we cleared that up.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @Sandpit I'm going for Option B. The referendum is really hard for pollsters to model because of its unique nature. Add that to the struggles that pollsters are already facing and why risk the last shreds of your credibility on a fool's errand?

    But NB: https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/742655711738531840
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    For the sake of clarity.

    I love my avatar pic - it will take something extraordinary to see it replaced.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    Yes, that wasn't what I meant. I meant that any future free trade deal with the EU would surely include requirements for us to continue charging tariffs on external trade. Why, for example, would the EU forgo an 10% import tariff on cars from the UK if we allow tariff-free import of cars from, e.g. the US? Cheap cars would pour into the EU via the UK, decimating the EU car industry. It simply wouldn't make sense for them to allow this.
    Rules of Origin - in this case the point of origin would be on the customs declaration.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    Sure, they'd fill the gap happily enough. And raise their prices to reflect the reduced competition. Isn't that how capitalism works?

    The reduced competition is primarily a function of the EU which has raised barriers to non-EU importers over the years to protect it's own industry. These are not just in the form of tariffs but also in import agreements which fix the number of cars that will be permitted to come in.
    Getting round these barriers was one of the main reasons Honda, Nissan and Toyota set up factories in the UK.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sandpit said:

    Are the pollsters giving up? Wow.
    The conspiracy theorist might surmise that they don't want headlines of Leave leads the week before that might affect that outcome, more likely they haven't got a clue and don't want headlines like they got last May about all the polls being crap!
    Reputation management seems totally sensible to me. I'd leave the field too - no one has any idea. The EU ref is a kluge of opinions that we've never seen before.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,010
    Floater said:

    So the Conservatives played us for fools then when promising to get it down into the 10's of thousands.

    Glad we cleared that up.

    Yep - though a lot of Tory leavers on here and elsewhere who now claim they were conned actually chose not to look too closely and enthusiastically supported government policies predicated on high levels of immigration.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,304
    Stock Market down to 5967. Good news for Brexiteers. Looks like we're heading for the crash before the vote.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    DavidL said:

    Sterling is currently off against every currency the BBC can be bothered to find: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/11/12/intraday.stm

    The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.

    Err - there have been other big movements in sterling and stock markets before you know.

    I can see why remain would like to pretend this is something special, but there are also external factors at play.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @SouthamObserver They're still doing it. The scraps that one might charitably call Leave's economic policy are also based on assumed high levels of immigration.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    The Dilbert guy wrote this six months ago, after the San Bernardino shootings:-

    'Here I am not talking about logic and reason. I’m talking about the tendency of human brains to form automatic associations. Those automatic connections that are disconnected from reason are how hypnotists can hypnotize and influencers can influence. Reason aside, when you observe an older male authority figure making a hard choice on your behalf, it just feels dadlike. You can’t help make the connection.

    The Dad idea won’t fully emerge until the general election…when Dad runs against mom. Speaking of Mom, you love what she stands for, but she can be such a bitch sometimes. Still, if you need a sandwich, or a hug, or some understanding, you probably pick mom.

    But if you hear a loud noise downstairs, and you live in a dangerous neighborhood, you’re probably hoping Dad gets to the baseball bat before Mom, even if they are equally capable. You’re a sexist that way, in your irrational brain.

    According to the Master Persuader filter, the selection of the next U.S. president is dependent on whether the public is feeling hungry or scared in the coming months. I’m betting on scared.'

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/134791529391/risk-management-trump-persuasion-series

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Roger said:

    There are 459 MPs for REMAIN 159 for LEAVE. What happens next if Leave win-like so much else-is a mystery. Maybe the Rupert Murdoch's Soaraway Sun can become the government?
    Its going to be 'interesting'. However the referendum isn't binding (if we vote Leave), so maybe we'll have a few months negotiation and then have another go at it and get it right. Of course the public don't appreciate that, so there may be a few percent who decide to switch political allegiance.

    If Leave win then quite a few politicians are going to regret prostituting their beliefs into thinking they only had a future supporting Remain.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,010

    The reduced competition is primarily a function of the EU which has raised barriers to non-EU importers over the years to protect it's own industry. These are not just in the form of tariffs but also in import agreements which fix the number of cars that will be permitted to come in.
    Getting round these barriers was one of the main reasons Honda, Nissan and Toyota set up factories in the UK.

    Sure - but whatever way we look at it a trade war probably means higher prices for UK consumers because we are more dependent on imports, so it is something that we would want to avoid at all costs.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    For the sake of clarity.

    I love my avatar pic - it will take something extraordinary to see it replaced.

    Ha!

    I discovered my ancient goat avatar on Gravatar is still in use on some sites. I've no idea how to change it.

    The angora goat Zac shuffled off his mortal coil several years ago.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Sandpit said:

    Are the pollsters giving up? Wow.
    The conspiracy theorist might surmise that they don't want headlines of Leave leads the week before that might effect that outcome, more likely they haven't got a clue and don't want headlines like they got last May about all the polls being crap!
    Pollsters want to be paid for doing polls.

    Perhaps the Guardian is not going to pay ICM any more for polls which show LEAVE leading.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,954
    No, I think Brexit is now a done deal. With Miliband I never once thought that the nation actually wanted him to reign over us. Brexit has a different feel entirely - it's like a giant tentacled monster sucking its lifeblood from a whole range of different hosts. Currently throughout civilisation the masses are flirting with mavericks and danger. Brexit is just the British version of this phenomenon. Remain's only hope is that respondents are venting their spleen to the pollsters but in the sanctity of the polling booth will calm down and opt for the quiet life, but this is probably grasping at straws.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,304
    Just heard Pritti Patel's first budget.

    Doesn't she have to go through one or two procedures first?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    Sure - but whatever way we look at it a trade war probably means higher prices for UK consumers because we are more dependent on imports, so it is something that we would want to avoid at all costs.
    I think you want to convince yourself of that. There is however massive overcapacity in the car industry worldwide. If we had no barriers prices would fall. Likewise if we have barriers we'll probably boost our own output as we make more at home thereby reducing our BOP problem.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    PlatoSaid said:



    I happily spent over £50k on a BMW and a Merc in my previous life. If it was 51k - would I change my choice = of course not.

    It's an absurd argument. Those buying premium brands buy premium brands. Every white good in my house was Bosch.

    Exactly, Miss P., and when buying an item a few percent on the price makes no sodding difference. I haven't bought French wine for years even though it carries no import duty. I buy wines from Chile, New Zealand, Australia and, occasionally, South Africa whose prices are higher than they need be because of the import duty. Value for money is the key.

    On a tangent when I was working I had a very wealthy client who amongst his cars had a brand New Rolls Royce Phantom. Gordon Brown had just really wacked up vehicle excise duty on gas guzzlers to discourage their use. I asked my client if this higher duty had not deterred him from buying such a beast, he just laughed. £350,000 for the car, £50k p.a. for the bloke to drive it, £2k per service, so £450 VED was a spit in the ocean.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Roger said:

    There are 459 MPs for REMAIN 159 for LEAVE. What happens next if Leave win-like so much else-is a mystery. Maybe the Rupert Murdoch's Soaraway Sun can become the government?
    Remain MPs in Leave areas will suffer the same fate as Scottish Labour.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    RodCrosby said:

    The Dilbert guy wrote this six months ago, after the San Bernardino shootings:-

    'Here I am not talking about logic and reason. I’m talking about the tendency of human brains to form automatic associations. Those automatic connections that are disconnected from reason are how hypnotists can hypnotize and influencers can influence. Reason aside, when you observe an older male authority figure making a hard choice on your behalf, it just feels dadlike. You can’t help make the connection.

    The Dad idea won’t fully emerge until the general election…when Dad runs against mom. Speaking of Mom, you love what she stands for, but she can be such a bitch sometimes. Still, if you need a sandwich, or a hug, or some understanding, you probably pick mom.

    But if you hear a loud noise downstairs, and you live in a dangerous neighborhood, you’re probably hoping Dad gets to the baseball bat before Mom, even if they are equally capable. You’re a sexist that way, in your irrational brain.

    According to the Master Persuader filter, the selection of the next U.S. president is dependent on whether the public is feeling hungry or scared in the coming months. I’m betting on scared.'

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/134791529391/risk-management-trump-persuasion-series

    That's very good.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    Exactly, Miss P., and when buying an item a few percent on the price makes no sodding difference. I haven't bought French wine for years even though it carries no import duty. I buy wines from Chile, New Zealand, Australia and, occasionally, South Africa whose prices are higher than they need be because of the import duty. Value for money is the key.

    On a tangent when I was working I had a very wealthy client who amongst his cars had a brand New Rolls Royce Phantom. Gordon Brown had just really wacked up vehicle excise duty on gas guzzlers to discourage their use. I asked my client if this higher duty had not deterred him from buying such a beast, he just laughed. £350,000 for the car, £50k p.a. for the bloke to drive it, £2k per service, so £450 VED was a spit in the ocean.
    From my days supplying RR at Crewe ( Bentley now ), the alternative to a RR is not a Merc or BMW it's a yacht or another house.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    chestnut said:

    Remain MPs in Leave areas will suffer the same fate as Scottish Labour.
    Remain MPs will almost all "respect the will of the public" and become Leave supporters so it will be moot and they can Remain being an MP.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,417

    Exactly, Miss P., and when buying an item a few percent on the price makes no sodding difference. I haven't bought French wine for years even though it carries no import duty. I buy wines from Chile, New Zealand, Australia and, occasionally, South Africa whose prices are higher than they need be because of the import duty. Value for money is the key.
    .
    Absolutely right. Apart from odd specials I haven’t bought French wines for years. And, Mr L I’d add Argentina to that list.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    Just completed a Yougov survey.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Not at all, the Japanese and Koreans will more than fill any gap in consumer choice and that's before you add in the USA and China.

    The only area I can see an issue on cars is luxury marques, but if it means the british middle classes have to struggle by in a Jaguar, Bentley or Lexus I'm sure they'll survive.

    It isn't beyond the realms of possibility that the Germans would move some production to the UK single market to protect market share, the same argument Remain make about financial institutions.

    UK sales to the domestic market have risen 42% in the last three years, but there is enormous scope to replace primarily EU imports with domestic cars.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,304
    chestnut said:

    Remain MPs in Leave areas will suffer the same fate as Scottish Labour.
    ...Tory one's yes. The most likely result after a no confidence vote is likely to be a General Election and a Labour government. So a small silver lining
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,089


    The reduced competition is primarily a function of the EU which has raised barriers to non-EU importers over the years to protect it's own industry. These are not just in the form of tariffs but also in import agreements which fix the number of cars that will be permitted to come in.
    Getting round these barriers was one of the main reasons Honda, Nissan and Toyota set up factories in the UK.

    That's not the only reason, of course. Nissan and the like try to carry as little inventory as possible, and have the shortest lead-times between ordering and car arrival.

    If you have 10,000 vehicles taking a two-week transit time, then having to clear customs at Felixstowe, you are carrying a lot more inventory than you'd like and customers aren't able to change options right up until delivery. Simply, delivering vehicles from a long way away adds costs and entails compromises. Even when there aren't tariffs, companies will still look to place production near to demand.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    It's a conspiracy... there's a few about on PB in these heady days...
    I'd love to be a Mossad agent like Ziva in NCIS :smiley:
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,417

    Remain MPs will almost all "respect the will of the public" and become Leave supporters so it will be moot and they can Remain being an MP.
    Unless something we don’t yet know about happens the next election is four years away, by which time exact positions on Brexit will be blurred.

    Will be interesting to see the figures for Witney, though.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Remain MPs will almost all "respect the will of the public" and become Leave supporters so it will be moot and they can Remain being an MP.
    I tend to agree, but some are currently indulging their imaginations with these people being permanently obstructive rather than adapting.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    PlatoSaid said:

    That's very good.
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    @OldKingCole If Leave win, those who sought it need to be left to pursue it to its logical conclusion. There can be no arguments about stabs in the backs or cheating the British public.

    Yes, it would probably be grim, but the public are entitled to have their vote honoured.

    Agree entirely - the consequences for the UK would be even grimmer than LEAVEing (which I think will be a bit grim, but we'll kbo) if MPs turned round and said 'Thanks for that, we're ignoring it'. The question has been put, the answer must be respected. If it is LEAVE I suspect Cameron will invoke Article 50 before the men in grey suits get to Downing Street.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    I've just made my first bet on the vote - was time to back remain in £ too.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited June 2016
    There will surely be no point in maintaining a classification of LEAVER and REMAINER after the referendum. If LEAVE wins I expect a rearguard action to ensure a swift EFTA/EEA deal with the issue of immigration heavily fudged. This is likely to produce an explosive row that will make the referendum campaign look civil.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Miss Vance, quite. If the vote were Leave and it were ignored, millions of voters would shift from the major parties. UKIP would have a field day and other parties might well arise. Not to mention the democratic disgrace of ignoring such a vote.

    Likewise, if Remain win, I hope it's by more than the late registrations during the deadline, to avoid a legal challenge.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,954
    chestnut said:

    Remain MPs in Leave areas will suffer the same fate as Scottish Labour.
    It depends on the level of economic turmoil that ensues. If it's nasty then the Tories will take full ownership - Cameron for calling the referendum and messing up the campaign; Boris for being the chief Brexit architect. Labour Remainers (and the Lib Dems and the Greens) will be ideally placed to bash the Tories and reap significant political rewards. 'I told you so' is a highly underrated refrain. The potential damage of Brexit to the Tories could make Black Wednesday look like a picnic.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,304
    edited June 2016
    This site is starting to remind me of M.A.S.H. Bombs going off everywhere with Rod Crosby wandering through the craters trying to devise a new hairstyle for Trump
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    @SouthamObserver They're still doing it. The scraps that one might charitably call Leave's economic policy are also based on assumed high levels of immigration.

    I think it is irrational to expect Leave to have a complete economic policy, or a complete policy on pretty much anything for that matter. They aren't a shadow government - how could they be expected to be, given that they draw support from a broad range of both left and right political backgrounds? Moreover, even if they did produce a complete manifesto covering how Leave would run the country in the event of Brexit, they'd have no democratic legitimacy for doing so because this isn't a general election and we are not voting people in to implement their policy set. They'd be making pledges they aren't even being elected to keep.

    I agree that the current situation is unsatisfactory, whereby Leave campaigners can state how the "savings" of Brexit could be spent on a dozen different things, depending on which Leave campaigner is speaking - but it is only to be expected that left and right-wing Brexiteers have different opinions on where the money should be spent, and it is up to the elected government (not the referendum victors) to decide. Similarly for whether the UK should remain in the EEA, what kind of immigration system should be set up, and so on.

    This is really a design flaw in the referendum process. But I can't see a good way around it. Presumably the UK government did have both a Plan A and a Plan B depending on how the renegotiation process went (otherwise their threats to leave without a deal would have hardly been credible). I suppose we could have had a Prime Minister acting as "neutral arbiter", awaiting the decision of the electorate, and campaigners on either side putting the two plans to the public. But that doesn't really work, for political reasons.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Absolutely right. Apart from odd specials I haven’t bought French wines for years. And, Mr L I’d add Argentina to that list.
    Me neither - all new world or elsewhere. I haven't bought German wine since the 80s :smiley:
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Jobabob said:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
    Wow, I never knew Clinton was slightly ahead in the polls, and just nearly lost the lead...

    All pre-Orlando in any case.

    Remain was ahead in the polls too, until recently.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,417
    PlatoSaid said:

    Me neither - all new world or elsewhere. I haven't bought German wine since the 80s :smiley:
    Nor have I, although I bought quite a lot at one time. If I want light whites I’ll buy our local wine.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    From my days supplying RR at Crewe ( Bentley now ), the alternative to a RR is not a Merc or BMW it's a yacht or another house.
    Yup and my brother-in-law who works at the RR plant at Goodwood tells me they are still working flat out, mostly for clients in Russia and China.

    He also tells me that the body presses come from Germany and they are having serious quality control issues. So much for vaunted German engineering.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    As someone who is voting leave there is one thing that worries me greatly and that is the possible super influx of EU citizens into the UK ahead of any new controls that may be put into play.
    It could dwarf what has happened over the last 5 years.
    Would temporary restrictions be put in place pending new rules?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,089
    You now pay the German government to borrow for 10 years.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: At Corbyn event, just been speaking to dep leader Tom Watson - he tells me there should be controls on freedom of movement for EU migrants

    @bbclaurak: Watson-voters been 'telling us for a long time' party needs to do more on immigration, suggests any future govt need to curb freedom of movt

    A GE could see Brexit Tories arguing for EFTA/EEA on economic grounds, and Labour arguing for withdrawal to stop free movement

    Buy Corbyn...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    @Sandpit I'm going for Option B. The referendum is really hard for pollsters to model because of its unique nature. Add that to the struggles that pollsters are already facing and why risk the last shreds of your credibility on a fool's errand?

    But NB: htt://twitter.com/martinboon/status/742655711738531840

    Agree with you on that one. Unfortunately it seems that polling has become a much more difficult exercise over the past few years, as we all discussed on here after the general election. It's very difficult to see how they move forward from here - it must be affecting their other, paid, work as well as the high profile rather than highly profitable political polling work.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: At Corbyn event, just been speaking to dep leader Tom Watson - he tells me there should be controls on freedom of movement for EU migrants

    Does he honestly think that is negotiable with the UK remaining in the EU under its current design?

    Does he think that enough British voters might believe it to be?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527
    Scott_P said:

    A GE could see Brexit Tories arguing for EFTA/EEA on economic grounds, and Labour arguing for withdrawal to stop free movement

    Buy Corbyn...

    Indeed...
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Absolutely right. Apart from odd specials I haven’t bought French wines for years. And, Mr L I’d add Argentina to that list.
    Ah, Argentina. Well, Mr. Cole, there are sometimes when value for money is not the prime consideration.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    RodCrosby said:

    Wow, I never knew Clinton was slightly ahead in the polls, and just nearly lost the lead...

    All pre-Orlando in any case.

    Remain was ahead in the polls too, until recently.
    The trend has been to Clinton since May 24, as can be clearly seen from the polling average.

    The story of the polling is that Trump is losing it.
This discussion has been closed.