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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A reminder from 16 months ago about the danger of reading t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A reminder from 16 months ago about the danger of reading too much into one day of polling
After yesterday’s polls it might be easy to say Monday the 13th of June was the day the day polls turned, but as that Guardian front page above shows, it is never wise to assume things like that.
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'Coffee ... wake up ... smell' come to mind.
Tipping point happened two weeks ago when 18 migrants decided to board a little vessel across the Channel coinciding with that net 330,000 figure.
It's finished. The only issue now is the scale of Leave's victory. I'll wager anyone on here it will be over 10%. TSE fancy that flutter?
Do you remember when he was once asked why he wanted to be PM? He replied 'because I think I'd be rather good at it.' There's so much wrong with that on so many levels that I refuse to feel sorry for him now.
He's toast.
I think one of the biggest mistakes Remain made was to correlate a General Election with the EU Ref. A terrible, terrible, mistake.
By the way, nunu, you sleep even less than me. Or do you live abroad?
The best thing Cameron can do, which is unfortunately what they've apparently decided, is to exit stage left for the next week.
http://politicalodds.bet/eu-referendum
Personally, I think the polls are still underestimating leave just as much as they were a month ago, however they have picked up a trend to leave over the last month.
This isn't someone ramping, this is serious cash
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiayfb1rrs0
"We Had Twenty Years to Prepare - So did they"
No they didn't and it shows
Move in a bit more please, I'd like to bet on Remain at around 4/6 (1.67) for a nicely green book. 1.61 this morning.
They should now be planning for all eventualities, and reassuring markets and allies accordingly.
I think Cameron, in particular, would like to do the right thing.
I hope he does.
Not going to happen though, I'm expecting to see the PM continuing with "Leave the EU and your pension gets it" all the way up to 23rd.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IldMnsymDo0
There is a wonderful paradox in the EU position on Brexit. By speaking up the horrors it would entail, they make them more likely. And on top of that, they are threatening to make it worse, simply pour encourager les autres. All the while bemoaning the possibility they are deliberately and consciously creating.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3608304/Project-Fear-damaging-public-trust-David-Cameron-poll-finds-amid-growing-speculation-leadership-contest-EU-referendum.html
A year ago he said he'd leave if he couldn't get meaningful reform, he's didn't get it and isn't even trying to pretend anymore that he did. People aren't stupid and can see it. This is why he's losing.
Interesting to note that Theresa May is still saying nothing, even though immigration is her department. Still 7/1 for next PM with most bookies, as the sensible grandee to reunite the party once they stop throwing stuff at each other.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-note-on-brexit-and-european-stocks-2016-6
But then as an economist I'm in the unenviable position of understanding all this. We are facing the Perfect Storm.
But then as an economist I'm in the unenviable position of understanding all this. We are facing the Perfect Storm.
Its dreadful.
This is not over yet. Project fear on the economy will continue to be played. Much will depend on how the markets react to what looks increasingly likely. The FTSE may well test 6000 today and sterling might come under some pressure.
So far, however, sterling is moving by tiny amounts. If the markets yawn then this is indeed all over and Remain's last cannon will be spiked.
Glad we got that cleared up.
I do wonder what will happen if, after a Leave vote, immigration stays at the current level for a while.
Rightly so, IMHO.
High immigration is linked to a booming economy. As Osborne has noted, you can reduce immigration significantly by crashing the economy. Not sure that is BoZo's ideal scenario
Bernard: I don't think Sir Humphrey understands economics, Prime Minister; he did read Classics, you know.
Hacker: What about Sir Frank? He's head of the Treasury!
Bernard: Well I'm afraid he's at an even greater disadvantage in understanding economics: he's an economist.
Thats what happens whn you are a democracy that runs your own affairs.
1) £350m per week
2) The NHS
3) Commitment to maintain various grants and payments
Or will that £350m be like Labour's Bankers' bonus tax, used many times over for a variety of causes.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
He managed to face two of the worst labour leaders ever and won a tiny majority once. Hardly the mark of a political collosus.
And I’m not aware we’ve ever been particularly good at democracy, given our flawed electoral system and Parliament.
Not because of investments, but on account of the serious disruption (let's not call it havoc) that would be caused by a Leave vote. Sterling, schmerling. The EU is intertwined to such a tremendous degree in our society that to unwind it in one fell swoop would be reckless.
And at the end of it, would we be able to say: "HA! - it feels much freer than it did?"
Of course we wouldn't. Our pesky governments would be falling over themselves to put us back to almost exactly where we were in the status quo ante. But perforce in a worse position as a non-EU member.
Sadly, David, your desire for freedom for kettle makers, is, and woud be sadly misguided.
2.2bn a year is paid to the EU from the VAT we collect, thats another 40m+ per week
75% of all the money collected from imports to the UK from outside the EU is given to the EU, if we maintained initially the same tariffs we would get it, if not we would get all of whatever rate we decided to set. For example it is currently 9.8% on all cars imported and 32% on all wine imported from outside the EU.
So am I. For one thing, the polls don't include NI and overseas-based voters, who will give a net addition of 1 million votes (approximately 3%) to the Remain side. The overseas-based voters are difficult to identify because they are registered in the constituencies where they used to live.
In addition, the trend to Leave now showing in the polls will encourage lukewarm Remain supporters to turn up and vote.
Finally, in the privacy of the polling booth, hesitant Leave supporters will take fright of the economic and other consequences of Leave (e.g. lack of free movement to mainland Europe) and hang onto nurse for fear of something worse.
You are making one of the major mistakes of Remain. This is not a general election, it is a referendum. Leave are not running for government. Cameron is still claiming that he will stay on (I wonder if he might wobble on that in the hope of getting some Tories back onside).
Immigration up, UK GDP forecast reduced.
1.6% growth isn't booming, it's below the UK trend.
But you are saying that once they have voted, the official Leave campaign, which motivated all those people to vote to leave the EU...should be ignored?
In ten days we will have voted to leave the EU, the Leave side - voters and campaigners - will own the consequences of that vote. Hopefully for them and for the country these are broadly positive.
I have plenty of arguments with people I think are worth making arguments with. Not expats who tell us what they think best for the UK while living 5,000 miles away.
They only phone public sector workers in London.
1. Add in Northern Ireland and assume Remain is in the range 60-75%. This adds 1% to the Remain figure and reduces the lead by 2%.
2. Adjust for the DKs which are breaking 60/40 to Remain when pushed. Acknowledge turnout of DKs will be low (30%). This adds another 1% to the Remain figure and reduces the lead by another 2%.
3. Recognise that within each age group, the turnout of ABC1s is likely to be higher than C2DEs which introduces a bias in turnout to Remain in each age group (recognising that the turnout of young is likely to be much lower than that of old). This adds another 1%-2% to the Remain figure and reduces the lead by another 2%-4%.
Just playing.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-QNaN1BKSY