politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With a batch of phone polls on the way LEAVE punters might

Indigo said:

williamglenn said:

RoyalBlue said:

Omnium said:

peter_from_putney said:

As a result of the rioting by Russians last night in Marseille, will UEFA and ultimately FIFA decide that Russia should forfeit its holding of the 2018 World Cup? ...... Thought not.

Will it be handed a suspended sentence specifying that should Russian "supporters" give rise to any further serious disturbances over the next two years, then it will forfeit the hosting of the World Cup? ...... Absolutely no chance.

Russia as it is can't survive.

Every day I pass well-heeled Russians in the street (I have a very basic understanding of their language). I've yet to know of a single Russian who actually has a job here.

I work with lots. They are without exception industrious, well-educated and inevitably end up as staunch Tory voters once they get their passports.

And, I would have thought, staunch Remain supporters. Having gone to the trouble of getting a European passport they won't give up the right to free movement.

A UK Passport grants you visa free access to 173 countries, 28 of those are in the EU.

But not a bureaucracy-free right to settle. That only applies within the EEA.

I

Fenman said:

Ian Harnett of ARS and formerly UBS is warning in the Observer of a Brexit effect of a 30% fall in sterling and a 20% fall in the FTSE.
Combined this would have a massive effect on private pensions.
No doubt the economically illiterate brexiters will tell us that this will be more than made up for by our free unicorns.

Is he prepared to resign his position without compensation if he is wrong ?

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Floater said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/741986871975280640

That can't be accurate, can it?

I think they've misreported that poll on an epic scandal. They've given two options for Leave and only one for Remain

You see instead of wasting your time trying to recruit a disinterested student you should have been at your keyboard shaping the narrative before Sunil does. :-)

I'm headed down to London so I can go to Paris for our Brexit contingency planning.

Looking at that poll shouldnt it be Bremain contingency planning ? ;-)

We're only worried by Bremain if Osborne is ditched as Chancellor

Omnium said:

AnneJGP said:

WRT elderly people, I've been thinking overnight about that business of 'pensions could be hit' if we leave, and comparing it to the statements (on here & elsewhere) that older people are likely to be voting with an eye to the future for their grandchildren & so on.

I know that, at the time of the last GE, many older people have deprecated the protection of their economic interests at the expense of those of younger people. (The free bus pass being national rather than regional, or free rather (than), say, half-price, is often cited.)

Politicians know that older people turn out & vote; I wonder whether they have over-estimated the need to win over those older voters by economic guarantees?

Cameron this morning talked about pensions being hit etc. It's a bit harsh. Pensioners on the whole have paid a big chunk of money month-on-month, year-on-year for their pensions. It's called National Insurance. State pensions (beyond the basic) are not a state hand-out.

And that paid for their parents to have a, pretty crappy, pension. Working age people are paying for current pensioners to have their triple locked pensions whilst the current workers' pensions are pushed further and further into the future..

There is no pension pot.

RodCrosby said:

Alistair said:

DanSmith said:

Alistair said:

Trump out to 4.6 in case anyone is interested. Apparently the regular Trump price updater only does updates when it is shortening.

That is great value.

It will shorten at the convention but barring the FBI it is

RodCrosby said:

Alistair said:

Trump out to 4.6 in case anyone is interested. Apparently the regular Trump price updater only does updates when it is shortening.

There's been a massive over-reaction to a slight drift in the polls back to Clinton [or even due to a hiatus in the frequency of polls]

PEC gives Trump a 35% chance, implying sub 3.0 odds as fair value. and concede his chance may be even higher.

From the state polls, a barely 1% swing to Trump would give him the keys to the White House.

If today's tragic events push Florida into his column I'd expect a sharp movement back on BF.

What is it about Orlando, btw? Only yesterday there was the senseless murder of the pop singer at a concert. Were these incidents related?

Anyhow Trump has two public meetings in NH later today, so we await his comments...

Yes, the slight drift showing Hilary winning Kentucky in a landslide.

I think you mean Kansas. It wasn't a landslide, and no-one seems to be taking it seriously, anyhow. A very odd poll, and on its own it means next to nothing.

All states begining with K look the same to me

TheScreamingEagles said:

For the record that Express report is complete and utter garbage. Don't bet on it or think it is useful.

well you would say that wouldn't you ?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Adam also says

3 options, status quo, leaving and "leave with a free trade association". They've put the second two together

And

also no political weighting

That's naughty...

TheScreamingEagles said:

For the record that Express report is complete and utter garbage. Don't bet on it or think it is useful.

EVERYTHING in the Express is complete and utter garbage. I thought we all knew this fact?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For the record that Express report is complete and utter garbage. Don't bet on it or think it is useful.

well you would say that wouldn't you ?

I'd say the same if the report was that badly reported in Remain's favour.

That's just the elitist in you talking. You've never been the same since you went to Bilderberg.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Adam also says

3 options, status quo, leaving and "leave with a free trade association". They've put the second two together

And

also no political weighting

It probably does reflect opinion on the EU, it's just not a poll on voting intention which is the crucial point. Reporting it as such is the problem.

Finn Gone - England looking at 200 tops.

weejonnie said:

RodCrosby said:

"The suspected Islamic extremist who killed about 20 people after taking party-goers hostage inside a gay club in Orlando has been identified.
Law enforcement sources have identified the shooter, who was wielding an assault rifle and a handgun, as US citizen Omar Mateen, from Port St. Lucie in Florida."

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3637414/Everyone-running-Gunman-bursts-gay-nightclub-Florida-shoots-20-people-taking-hostages.html#ixzz4BNDPKOBZ

Just as well for Hillary - If it had been a Muslim who had recently arrived in the USA.....

It looks like the shooter was also a registered Democrat. His parents came from Afghanistan.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkwW6v5UUAEbp4T.jpg

Captain Cook to the rescue in the cricket?

weejonnie said:

Finn Gone - England looking at 200 tops.

More than enough!

MP_SE said:

Tim said:

Fenman said:

Ian Harnett of ARS and formerly UBS is warning in the Observer of a Brexit effect of a 30% fall in sterling and a 20% fall in the FTSE.
Combined this would have a massive effect on private pensions.
No doubt the economically illiterate brexiters will tell us that this will be more than made up for by our free unicorns.

It's not the Brexiters who are economically illiterate. It is those who swallow such statements without thinking about them.

If there really was going to be a 30% fall in sterling and 20% in the FTSE then we'd already have seen a significant effect in the markets, as we're just 11 days from the vote.

In fact, what we've seen is much smaller effects. Those who are closer to the markets will be able to make some comment about what the movements to date suggest for a post-referendum Brexit effect.

I believe 80% of FTSE 100 companies' income is derived from overseas.

The issue I have with people trotting out these numbers is...I don't see them doing it very often. People are worried, and that's fine - I worry too.

However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).

I'm no expert, but investment income is around 65% of my overall, so I follow things reasonably closely. I'd expect a lot of volatility on the news of Brexit (it might move up a little if we got an _accurate_ poll that was like the D. Express nonsense).

However, remember what article 50 actually says:


“Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it. A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.”

Nothing happens on June 24th. We'd leave the EU proper sometime in June 2018 at the earliest. I don't want to minimise the economic impact - I'm expecting something like the IFS report (which includes a range of outcomes, pick yer poison).

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For the record that Express report is complete and utter garbage. Don't bet on it or think it is useful.

well you would say that wouldn't you ?

Anyone who knows how to read an opinion poll would say that.

PlatoSaid said:

Holy Crap

50 DEAD, 50 in hospital

S***

RodCrosby said:

Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?

Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.

Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.

This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.

TheScreamingEagles said:

weejonnie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

also no political weighting

Why does this matter for a referendum question since there are leavers and remainers on both the left and the right ? Socio-economic weighting I could see.

There's a feeling online polls contain too many Kippers. So you have to weight accordingly.

Yougov in the election had UKIP on 12%/ 13% - and that is what they got. In fact everyone other than Survation did.

I would say the problem with online polling is that those people who register are more committed to the cause (any cause) and hence less likely to switch than other voters.

Not true. A lot of the largest errors for UKIP at the GE were online polls overestimating UKIP.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/10/so-were-there-really-shy-kippers/

Look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election - which I assume is accurate.

Terrible news in Florida. Like the Bataclan, indiscriminately killing young people who are out enjoying themselves is truly disgusting.

0/T

Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.

The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.

This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.

The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.

England getting lucky in Cricket - one bowled with a 'no ball', one nearly LBW.

tyson said:

Terrible news in Florida. Like the Bataclan, indiscriminately killing young people who are out enjoying themselves is truly disgusting.

0/T

Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.

The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.

This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.

The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.

I hope you'll let us know which of us racist, which is ignorant, which is nationalist and which is all three.

weejonnie said:

More Brexit winging

https://vimeo.com/170323051

Outrageous. And I can fully believe it.

Vote Leave.

PlatoSaid said:

UEFA threatens Russia and England with disqualification if violence happens again.

Well thats Russia going come early then....but of course they won't follow through with the threat.

GeoffM said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Is it a solitary terrorist in Orlando, or a group? This morning I think it was reported it was one man.

"Omar Mateen", son of Afghan immigrants, according to reports.

Nothing Religion of Peace to see here. Move along, citizen.

I think the usual line is he misunderstood the teachings and it's nothing to do with ROP.

John_M said:

However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).

I do remember the pound collapsing then, yes. I think at the time Thingy's predecessor was still in charge at the ECB and pursuing a strong Euro strategy and the UK had started QE (happy to be contradicted if I have the timings wrong). Remember the Greece black hole wasn't revealed until 2009(?) and Sarkozy was still boasting it was an Anglo-American problem...silly him.

The point being that that collapse was a known side effect of a deliberately pursued strategy. A post-Brexit collapse will be the result of an outcome not chosen by the UK government, as it pivots from a pro-economy to an anti-immigration anti-economy stance: hieraeth and heimat instead of pennies and pounds.

Parenthetically I think the GBP collapse will be greater and/or longer than you think. And since Soros is piling into gold, he agrees with me...

Floater said:

GeoffM said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Is it a solitary terrorist in Orlando, or a group? This morning I think it was reported it was one man.

"Omar Mateen", son of Afghan immigrants, according to reports.

Nothing Religion of Peace to see here. Move along, citizen.

I think the usual line is he misunderstood the teachings and it's nothing to do with ROP.

You forgot the "worry about backlash"....

weejonnie said:

RodCrosby said:

Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?

Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.

Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.

This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.

The shooter may be a Muslim but the victims were largely homosexuals, not exactly Trump's demographic it was a tragedy and could equally again open up the question on gun laws too, Trump has been endorsed by the NRA but I doubt it has any impact on the election

Miss/Mr. QC, thanks for that answer.

Surprised one man managed to kill so many.

Floater said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Adam also says

3 options, status quo, leaving and "leave with a free trade association". They've put the second two together

And

also no political weighting

I'd say that was terribly irresponsible reporting, but this is the Daily Express we're talking about..

Disappointed we haven't seen a 'Diana would have voted Leave' headline yet.

Failure to Brexit leads to climate change?

Vote Leave for a BBQ summer.

tyson said:

kle4 said:

tyson said:

Terrible news in Florida. Like the Bataclan, indiscriminately killing young people who are out enjoying themselves is truly disgusting.

0/T

Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.

The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.

This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.

The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.

I hope you'll let us know which of us racist, which is ignorant, which is nationalist and which is all three.

You tell me which of you are racist. You Brexit people are on the same side as the English hooligans rampaging through Marseille singing fuck off Europe, the EDL, the BNP, George Gallaway, revolutionary communists, Farage. You're riding the wave of anti immigrant rhetoric and populism.

Do you conssider Democrats to be Homophobic as one of them just shot 50 people in a gay nightclub?

chestnut said:

Packing online with activists for the referendum does not make sense to me.

The long term sign ups will have been to well known political pollsters published in the press, with the sign up based upon being activist Tory, Labour etc.

It will not have been on a Leave or Remain basis.

Additionally, ORB and BMG seem to derive their panels from market research databases which should be purer.

UKIP polled 15% across GB (less Scotland and London) last May. The Tories were over 40%.

England and Wales (less Scotland/London) is 55-45 "right wing".

The Conservatives were nowhere near 40% last May . They were much nearer 30% .

viewcode said:

John_M said:

However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).

I do remember the pound collapsing then, yes. I think at the time Thingy's predecessor was still in charge at the ECB and pursuing a strong Euro strategy and the UK had started QE (happy to be contradicted if I have the timings wrong). Remember the Greece black hole wasn't revealed until 2009(?) and Sarkozy was still boasting it was an Anglo-American problem...silly him.

The point being that that collapse was a known side effect of a deliberately pursued strategy. A post-Brexit collapse will be the result of an outcome not chosen by the UK government, as it pivots from a pro-economy to an anti-immigration anti-economy stance: hieraeth and heimat instead of pennies and pounds.

Parenthetically I think the GBP collapse will be greater and/or longer than you think. And since Soros is piling into gold, he agrees with me...

I'm just going off the IFS report. However, ultimately it's all guesswork, no matter how well informed.

One of the most influential papers I ever read was written by a CIA analyst (this was in my secret squirrel days). He was trying to analyse why the Western intelligence community had never actually predicted any of the great seismic shifts - from the Cuban missile crisis to the Arab spring. It really brought home to me how odd the world is, and how inherently unpredictable humans, en masse, are.

I'd have more confidence all round if the economists were predicting when the next recession will be - they're still much better at fitting to the curve than predicting it.

MarkSenior said:

chestnut said:

Packing online with activists for the referendum does not make sense to me.

The long term sign ups will have been to well known political pollsters published in the press, with the sign up based upon being activist Tory, Labour etc.

It will not have been on a Leave or Remain basis.

Additionally, ORB and BMG seem to derive their panels from market research databases which should be purer.

UKIP polled 15% across GB (less Scotland and London) last May. The Tories were over 40%.

England and Wales (less Scotland/London) is 55-45 "right wing".

The Conservatives were nowhere near 40% last May . They were much nearer 30% .

37.8% Nationally IIRC - which is only closer to 30% in the minds of the Left.

tyson said:

kle4 said:

tyson said:

Terrible news in Florida. Like the Bataclan, indiscriminately killing young people who are out enjoying themselves is truly disgusting.

0/T

Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.

The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.

This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.

The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.

I hope you'll let us know which of us racist, which is ignorant, which is nationalist and which is all three.

You tell me which of you are racist. You Brexit people are on the same side as the English hooligans rampaging through Marseille singing fuck off Europe, the EDL, the BNP, George Gallaway, revolutionary communists, Farage. You're riding the wave of anti immigrant rhetoric and populism.

You know perfectly well that just because idiots support something does not mean everyone who supports the same is an idiot, if their reason for supporting it is not the same. Personally I don't care about immigration at all, so don't need to make any 'it's not racist to care about immigration' comments as a defence. A couple of racists I'm unfortunately related to are voting Remain due to economic shock fears - perhaps not representative, but even racists are not a homogeneous mass.

And in any case the problem remains - if you think anyone who supports Leaving is a racist, which is your implied position, you are saying 45-50% of the population are racist. Does that really seem probable to you?

weejonnie said:

MarkSenior said:

chestnut said:

Packing online with activists for the referendum does not make sense to me.

The long term sign ups will have been to well known political pollsters published in the press, with the sign up based upon being activist Tory, Labour etc.

It will not have been on a Leave or Remain basis.

Additionally, ORB and BMG seem to derive their panels from market research databases which should be purer.

UKIP polled 15% across GB (less Scotland and London) last May. The Tories were over 40%.

England and Wales (less Scotland/London) is 55-45 "right wing".

The Conservatives were nowhere near 40% last May . They were much nearer 30% .

37.8% Nationally IIRC - which is only closer to 30% in the minds of the Left.

We are talking about May local elections last month not a year ago .

MTimT said:

tyson said:

kle4 said:

tyson said:

Terrible news in Florida. Like the Bataclan, indiscriminately killing young people who are out enjoying themselves is truly disgusting.

0/T

Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.

The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.

This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.

The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.

I hope you'll let us know which of us racist, which is ignorant, which is nationalist and which is all three.

You tell me which of you are racist. You Brexit people are on the same side as the English hooligans rampaging through Marseille singing fuck off Europe, the EDL, the BNP, George Gallaway, revolutionary communists, Farage. You're riding the wave of anti immigrant rhetoric and populism.

Rule number one of effective discussion. Do not attribute motive to the other side. Deal with what they say and, more importantly, what they do. tyson fails class 101.

In tyson's defence, many on here, on both sides of the debate, have failed that test. Mr Nabavi and Mr Meeks come to mind as frequent offenders.

But then, most offenders I suspect are not on here to discuss, more to opine or vent.

Like

El_Dave said:

HYUFD said:

Not the same as saying he will resign or lose the leadership and he is the elected Prime Minister who will have just won a referendum, Tory members can say what they like, the UK electorate will have voted to Remain and the PM will still be a Remainer as a consequence

Whether or not he faces a leadership election is up to Conservative MPs. Who wins that leadership election is up to Conservative Party members.

There has to be a vote of confidence by MPs first before a leadership election, as a majority of Tory MPs back Remain if Remain win Cameron would win that vote of confidence comfortably