politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With a batch of phone polls on the way LEAVE punters might

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With a batch of phone polls on the way LEAVE punters might be wise to defer their bets

It’s becoming very apparent that the sequencing of polls by mode is having a a big impact on expectations about the outcome and, of course, the betting.

Read the full story here

Danny565

First!

notme

New thread curse:

FPT
I went to a Labour organised (open to the public) remain meeting, the only one i think we have had in the constituency, despite having two exceptionally well known guest speakers, the room couldnt have had more than thirty to forty people in it. Only one single person in the room put a contrary position, and pinned down one of the speakers for using exactly the same argument when he was an advisor to Tony Blair as to why we should join the Euro.

This person was a labour member. He was jeered, the former MP (who is a quite an intimidating gent) shouted at him that he was ridiculous and listed some of the European companies in the town that are big employers, who according to him would almost certainly leave the UK if we left.

The person on the panel just lost it entirely and started shouting at him also. Throughout this time the person putting the contrary position was utterly polite, never raised his voice and only spoke after he had put his hand up and was called.

The woman chairing the meeting (former PPC) started sniggering and rolling her eyes, tutting when he wanted to come back to re-challenge points.

It made me think of the 'five million conversations' on the doorsteps that Labour had the elections, if they resembled that, it would have sounded like 'five million lectures' on the doorstep.

Speaker after speaker talked about the wonders of immigration, how it was the murdoch press and the biased bbc that was to blame for ignorant voters. Several people said theyve yet to hear one single convincing reason to leave the EU.

Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.

DavidL

All I think that can be said with real confidence is that this is currently a toss up and that means Leave is surely value. If these phone polls come out with leave ahead the current odds will no longer be available.

Morris_Dancer

Be interesting to see what the polls have to say.

My pre-race piece is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/canada-pre-race-2016.html

The race starts at 7pm. Could be rather tasty.

Anyway, I'm off for a bit.

Danny565

FPT:

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??

You said exactly the same last night and I will give exactly the same response, this is New Labour people, Corbyn and those around him will do nothing more than shrug if it is Leave

Well, perhaps, but (also as I said last night) this referendum is showing that the New Labour "moderates" are just as willing to indulge their fringe obsessions as the hard left are.

Whereas the hard left get all obsessed about nuclear weapons which are probably never going to get used anyway, the "moderates" have an inexplicable fetish for staying in the EU above all else, despite it having very little impact one way or the other on normal people's lives. Both are just "virtue signalling" for different ideologies: the hard left want to show how right-on and pacifist they are, while the "moderates" want to parrot all the slogans about being "outward-looking" and "engaged with the world". The likes of Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna have been practically frothing at the mouth with horror at Brexit.

Meanwhile, the wait for a return to a proper Labour Party, which puts practical measures to help the poorest people as by FAR their top priority, with all other issues being secondary, goes on.

alex.

I think people's experiences are being coloured by the fact that very few people are "enthusiastic" for the EU. Despite the portrayal of anyone who is not voting Leave as a rabid Europhile, the fact is that most simply are not. They are not likely to self identify themselves at campaign stalls and are probably just wishing the whole thing would just go away. They are trying to avoid all news in relation to it, will cast their vote on June 23rd and then hope the whole thing disappears.

I wonder if any Leave campaigners have crossover with Scottish Independence campaigners? Because i'm sure all the same experiences were had then.

TheScreamingEagles

To put it bluntly. Remain are relying on those that don't vote in great numbers, the youth. Whilst Leave are relying on those that don't vote in great numbers either, the lower socio-economic groups.

Gallowgate

FWIW I left the Labour Party today, and I voted for Corbyn.

Pauly

Gallowgate said:

FWIW I left the Labour Party today, and I voted for Corbyn.

Care to elaborate? Is it due to his stealthy approach to this campaign or something completely different...

TCPoliticalBetting

Did Marr really not quiz Cameron on this? Andrew Neil would have.

Vote Leave @vote_leave
Andrew Marr disgracefully refused to ask Cameron about the Sunday Times story despite having the documents - #Marr in full campaign mode

Omnium

The EU ref debate is I feel pretty healthy in terms of democracy.

I quite like Cameron, but he's shown himself as a 'machine' politician. The likes of Brown would be 'sub-sentient machine politicians'.

Chris Grayling astonished me this morning. It won't be him, but there may well be politicians that do well now who will be important for the future.

(PS from many comments ago. MikeK - no I am not looking for a magical saviour. Someone that in many years hence will be regarded well will do just nicely)

rottenborough

Danny565 said:

FPT:

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??

You said exactly the same last night and I will give exactly the same response, this is New Labour people, Corbyn and those around him will do nothing more than shrug if it is Leave

Well, perhaps, but (also as I said last night) this referendum is showing that the New Labour "moderates" are just as willing to indulge their fringe obsessions as the hard left are.

Whereas the hard left get all obsessed about nuclear weapons which are probably never going to get used anyway, the "moderates" have an inexplicable fetish for staying in the EU above all else, despite it having very little impact one way or the other on normal people's lives. Both are just "virtue signalling" for different ideologies: the hard left want to show how right-on and pacifist they are, while the "moderates" want to parrot all the slogans about being "outward-looking" and "engaged with the world". The likes of Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna have been practically frothing at the mouth with horror at Brexit.

Meanwhile, the wait for a return to a proper Labour Party, which puts practical measures to help the poorest people as by FAR their top priority, with all other issues being secondary, goes on.

Wrecking the economy for years by Brexit is not going to help the poorest.

TCPoliticalBetting

TheScreamingEagles said:

To put it bluntly. Remain are relying on those that don't vote in great numbers, the youth. Whilst Leave are relying on those that don't vote in great numbers either, the lower socio-economic groups.

I do not agree that LEAVE are relying on the lower socio-economic groups to vote for them. They will benefit from some of these Labour voters in that group not voting for REMAIN. Which is what the alarm in Labour REMAIN ranks is all about.

HYUFD

Danny565 said:

FPT:

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??

You said exactly the same last night and I will give exactly the same response, this is New Labour people, Corbyn and those around him will do nothing more than shrug if it is Leave

Well, perhaps, but (also as I said last night) this referendum is showing that the New Labour "moderates" are just as willing to indulge their fringe obsessions as the hard left are.

Whereas the hard left get all obsessed about nuclear weapons which are probably never going to get used anyway, the "moderates" have an inexplicable fetish for staying in the EU above all else, despite it having very little impact one way or the other on normal people's lives. Both are just "virtue signalling" for different ideologies: the hard left want to show how right-on and pacifist they are, while the "moderates" want to parrot all the slogans about being "outward-looking" and "engaged with the world". The likes of Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna have been practically frothing at the mouth with horror at Brexit.

Meanwhile, the wait for a return to a proper Labour Party, which puts practical measures to help the poorest people as by FAR their top priority, with all other issues being secondary, goes on.

Oh for goodness sake that is what Corbyn is doing, at least from your perspective, YOU now have control of the Labour Party for the time being it is the New Labour types who have lost it. The left and right have always been most sceptical of the EU, it is centrist New Labour types, Tory One Nation figures and Cameroons and LDs who have been the most positive towards it

Sunil_Prasannan

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

Gallowgate

Pauly said:

Gallowgate said:

FWIW I left the Labour Party today, and I voted for Corbyn.

Care to elaborate? Is it due to his stealthy approach to this campaign or something completely different...

For one, I think Corbyn should have been honest about his position and then campaigned for it, regardless if I agreed with it or not. The new honest type of politics that I was promised appears to be a lie.

I also am amazed about how amateur the party has been, both in parliament and out since the last election.

I'm also sad about the lack of focus on the North from the Labour Party, despite the amount of votes it gets from here.

I will remain partyless for a while I think.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Danny565 said:

FPT:

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??

You said exactly the same last night and I will give exactly the same response, this is New Labour people, Corbyn and those around him will do nothing more than shrug if it is Leave

Well, perhaps, but (also as I said last night) this referendum is showing that the New Labour "moderates" are just as willing to indulge their fringe obsessions as the hard left are.

Whereas the hard left get all obsessed about nuclear weapons which are probably never going to get used anyway, the "moderates" have an inexplicable fetish for staying in the EU above all else, despite it having very little impact one way or the other on normal people's lives. Both are just "virtue signalling" for different ideologies: the hard left want to show how right-on and pacifist they are, while the "moderates" want to parrot all the slogans about being "outward-looking" and "engaged with the world". The likes of Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna have been practically frothing at the mouth with horror at Brexit.

Meanwhile, the wait for a return to a proper Labour Party, which puts practical measures to help the poorest people as by FAR their top priority, with all other issues being secondary, goes on.

One of the younger members of my family is a fully paid up Corbynite. He constantly makes the error of thinking that the 'workers' are internationalists, and further left than they are. He got a horrible shock when in his first election campaign (2016 Holyrood), Lab were routed in the centre left by the SNP and hard left RISE got fewer votes than the fundamentalist Christian party in most regions.

Danny565

rottenborough said:

Danny565 said:

FPT:

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??

You said exactly the same last night and I will give exactly the same response, this is New Labour people, Corbyn and those around him will do nothing more than shrug if it is Leave

Well, perhaps, but (also as I said last night) this referendum is showing that the New Labour "moderates" are just as willing to indulge their fringe obsessions as the hard left are.

Whereas the hard left get all obsessed about nuclear weapons which are probably never going to get used anyway, the "moderates" have an inexplicable fetish for staying in the EU above all else, despite it having very little impact one way or the other on normal people's lives. Both are just "virtue signalling" for different ideologies: the hard left want to show how right-on and pacifist they are, while the "moderates" want to parrot all the slogans about being "outward-looking" and "engaged with the world". The likes of Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna have been practically frothing at the mouth with horror at Brexit.

Meanwhile, the wait for a return to a proper Labour Party, which puts practical measures to help the poorest people as by FAR their top priority, with all other issues being secondary, goes on.

Wrecking the economy for years by Brexit is not going to help the poorest.

As far as a lot of traditional Labour voters are concerned, the economy (as it applies to them) is already wrecked.

Alanbrooke

rottenborough said:

Danny565 said:

FPT:

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??

You said exactly the same last night and I will give exactly the same response, this is New Labour people, Corbyn and those around him will do nothing more than shrug if it is Leave

Well, perhaps, but (also as I said last night) this referendum is showing that the New Labour "moderates" are just as willing to indulge their fringe obsessions as the hard left are.

Whereas the hard left get all obsessed about nuclear weapons which are probably never going to get used anyway, the "moderates" have an inexplicable fetish for staying in the EU above all else, despite it having very little impact one way or the other on normal people's lives. Both are just "virtue signalling" for different ideologies: the hard left want to show how right-on and pacifist they are, while the "moderates" want to parrot all the slogans about being "outward-looking" and "engaged with the world". The likes of Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna have been practically frothing at the mouth with horror at Brexit.

Meanwhile, the wait for a return to a proper Labour Party, which puts practical measures to help the poorest people as by FAR their top priority, with all other issues being secondary, goes on.

Wrecking the economy for years by Brexit is not going to help the poorest.

The biggest damage done to the economy in recent years was whilst we were in the EU and run by a pro EU PM.

It didn't help the poor that much.

Sunil_Prasannan

rottenborough said:

Danny565 said:

FPT:

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??

You said exactly the same last night and I will give exactly the same response, this is New Labour people, Corbyn and those around him will do nothing more than shrug if it is Leave

Well, perhaps, but (also as I said last night) this referendum is showing that the New Labour "moderates" are just as willing to indulge their fringe obsessions as the hard left are.

Whereas the hard left get all obsessed about nuclear weapons which are probably never going to get used anyway, the "moderates" have an inexplicable fetish for staying in the EU above all else, despite it having very little impact one way or the other on normal people's lives. Both are just "virtue signalling" for different ideologies: the hard left want to show how right-on and pacifist they are, while the "moderates" want to parrot all the slogans about being "outward-looking" and "engaged with the world". The likes of Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna have been practically frothing at the mouth with horror at Brexit.

Meanwhile, the wait for a return to a proper Labour Party, which puts practical measures to help the poorest people as by FAR their top priority, with all other issues being secondary, goes on.

Wrecking the economy for years by Brexit is not going to help the poorest.

This is exactly the kind of scaremongering that is costing you support.

rottenborough

Danny565 said:

rottenborough said:

Danny565 said:

FPT:

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??

You said exactly the same last night and I will give exactly the same response, this is New Labour people, Corbyn and those around him will do nothing more than shrug if it is Leave

Well, perhaps, but (also as I said last night) this referendum is showing that the New Labour "moderates" are just as willing to indulge their fringe obsessions as the hard left are.

Whereas the hard left get all obsessed about nuclear weapons which are probably never going to get used anyway, the "moderates" have an inexplicable fetish for staying in the EU above all else, despite it having very little impact one way or the other on normal people's lives. Both are just "virtue signalling" for different ideologies: the hard left want to show how right-on and pacifist they are, while the "moderates" want to parrot all the slogans about being "outward-looking" and "engaged with the world". The likes of Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna have been practically frothing at the mouth with horror at Brexit.

Meanwhile, the wait for a return to a proper Labour Party, which puts practical measures to help the poorest people as by FAR their top priority, with all other issues being secondary, goes on.

Wrecking the economy for years by Brexit is not going to help the poorest.

As far as a lot of traditional Labour voters are concerned, the economy (as it applies to them) is already wrecked.

I don't disagree, but as Adam Smith said, "there's a lot of ruin in a nation".

El_Dave

notme said:

Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.

I'm assuming that unless Remain win big (70:30?), that Mr Cameron will be replaced by a Leave MP shortly after the result comes in.

I think the Cons would then be well placed to convert Leave-Labour supporters.

TheScreamingEagles

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

RoyalBlue

Leave victory, Bojo as leader and PM, October election.

Tory landslide, and total marginalisation of Corbyn's Labour Party and Remainers in general.

I can dream

HYUFD

El_Dave said:

notme said:

Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.

I'm assuming that unless Remain win big (70:30?), that Mr Cameron will be replaced by a Leave MP shortly after the result comes in.

I think the Cons would then be well placed to convert Leave-Labour supporters.

Cameron will stay if Remain win, he will only be gone if they lose. If it is a narrow Remain though Osborne will not succeed him. If it is a narrow Remain the big realignment will be UKIP eating into Tory Leaver and Labour Leaver voters, if it is Leave it will probably be Corbyn v Johnson

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Don't you follow me on Twitter?

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/741743746123960320

El_Dave

HYUFD said:

El_Dave said:

notme said:

Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.

I'm assuming that unless Remain win big (70:30?), that Mr Cameron will be replaced by a Leave MP shortly after the result comes in.

I think the Cons would then be well placed to convert Leave-Labour supporters.

Cameron will stay if Remain win, he will only be gone if they lose. If it is a narrow Remain though Osborne will not succeed him.

A narrow Remain win, will still mean Con voters supported Leave 2:1.

There's already enough bad blood in the parliamentary Conservative Party to trigger a leadership contest. To avert that Remain has to be a big win.

HYUFD

TCPoliticalBetting said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

To put it bluntly. Remain are relying on those that don't vote in great numbers, the youth. Whilst Leave are relying on those that don't vote in great numbers either, the lower socio-economic groups.

I do not agree that LEAVE are relying on the lower socio-economic groups to vote for them. They will benefit from some of these Labour voters in that group not voting for REMAIN. Which is what the alarm in Labour REMAIN ranks is all about.

Yougov today has ABC1s backing Remain by 60% to 40%, C2DEs backing Leave by 66% to 34% so it is true to say Leave are relying on lower socio-economic groups
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qi3olqsp2n/SundayTimesResults_160610_EUReferendum.pdf

Sunil_Prasannan

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I was actually in Sheffield station for 20 minutes on Friday afternoon. I turned back there after doing the Nottingham to Chesterfield line (Erewash Valley line) for the first time.

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.

Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom

Alanbrooke

HYUFD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

To put it bluntly. Remain are relying on those that don't vote in great numbers, the youth. Whilst Leave are relying on those that don't vote in great numbers either, the lower socio-economic groups.

I do not agree that LEAVE are relying on the lower socio-economic groups to vote for them. They will benefit from some of these Labour voters in that group not voting for REMAIN. Which is what the alarm in Labour REMAIN ranks is all about.

Yougov today has ABC1s backing Remain by 60% to 40%, C2DEs backing Leave by 66% to 34% so it is true to say Leave are relying on lower socio-economic groups
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qi3olqsp2n/SundayTimesResults_160610_EUReferendum.pdf

which simply makes the point that the least well off in society believe the EU keeps them poor and the better off believes it protects their wallets.

Omnium

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.

Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom

Define 'landslide'

topov

Can someone please post a link to the local authority "par" spreadsheet referred to in the previous thread?

Jonathan

Andrea Leadsom really excellent on the R4 TWTW. Avoided a bear trap when she almost refused to answer a question and then backtracked. Quite convincing.

I can see what Mike sees in her.

TheScreamingEagles

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.

Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom

Define 'landslide'

Remain with 65/70 % of the vote.

Sean_F

DavidL said:

All I think that can be said with real confidence is that this is currently a toss up and that means Leave is surely value. If these phone polls come out with leave ahead the current odds will no longer be available.

Ipsos MORI is very likely to show a big shift to Leave, due to changes in methodology.

I don't think anything will shift the betting markets, unless it's still neck and neck by Tuesday next week. Pro-Remain punters are betting on the basis of sentiment.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.

Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom

Well I don't really bother with social media but have you tried this one ?

https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/with_replies

quite a passionate outspoken chappy.

another_richard

Will Tyson be apologising for his bigoted comments about English football fans ?

' Uefa has expressed its “utter disgust” and opened disciplinary proceedings against Russia for crowd disturbances, racist behaviour by fans and fireworks being set off during the European Championship game against England on Saturday. Uefa has not opened any case against the English Football Association. '

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/jun/12/uefa-open-disciplinary-proceedings-russia-england-marseille-euro-2016

chestnut

On Topic

It isn't just the phone/online divide that causes issues with understanding the current situation; it's the variable presentation of the data.

Take Opinium yesterday.

Vote Intention was presented using 10/10 to vote numbers while the referendum result was presented using a different indicator. Why?

Some headline numbers are presented on things like 95% turnout, which is just plain stupid.

The polling industry needs to get it's act together and publish in some consistent way.

a) 10/10 Vote Certainty
b) All respondents
c) All probable voters (6/10+)
d) Pollster weighted turnout

These things are often in the detail but it should form part of the executive summary/press release so there is an obvious commonality of presentation.

HYUFD

El_Dave said:

HYUFD said:

El_Dave said:

notme said:

Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.

I'm assuming that unless Remain win big (70:30?), that Mr Cameron will be replaced by a Leave MP shortly after the result comes in.

I think the Cons would then be well placed to convert Leave-Labour supporters.

Cameron will stay if Remain win, he will only be gone if they lose. If it is a narrow Remain though Osborne will not succeed him.

A narrow Remain win, will still mean Con voters supported Leave 2:1.

There's already enough bad blood in the parliamentary Conservative Party to trigger a leadership contest. To avert that Remain has to be a big win.

No, Yougov today has 51% of the country saying Cameron should step down straight away or within a year if Leave wins and 46% of Tory voters saying the same. Only 32% say he should step down if Remain wins within that timeframe and just 25% of Tory voters say he should do so
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qi3olqsp2n/SundayTimesResults_160610_EUReferendum.pdf

TCPoliticalBetting

I have just watched Marr's interview of the PM, it must rank as one of the most feeble, suppliant, interviews since the gobble gobble Brown interview (cartoon covered it).

another_richard

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I've seen at least 10x as many Leave adverts as Remain preceding YouTube music videos.

Omnium

TheScreamingEagles said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.

Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom

Define 'landslide'

Remain with 65/70 % of the vote.

I'm surprised that even in Clegg-central it's so strong. Well done you Remainers.

(fwiw I'm still undecided)

HYUFD

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

To put it bluntly. Remain are relying on those that don't vote in great numbers, the youth. Whilst Leave are relying on those that don't vote in great numbers either, the lower socio-economic groups.

I do not agree that LEAVE are relying on the lower socio-economic groups to vote for them. They will benefit from some of these Labour voters in that group not voting for REMAIN. Which is what the alarm in Labour REMAIN ranks is all about.

Yougov today has ABC1s backing Remain by 60% to 40%, C2DEs backing Leave by 66% to 34% so it is true to say Leave are relying on lower socio-economic groups
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qi3olqsp2n/SundayTimesResults_160610_EUReferendum.pdf

which simply makes the point that the least well off in society believe the EU keeps them poor and the better off believes it protects their wallets.

Indeed, immigration v the economy again

TCPoliticalBetting

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.

Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom

Define 'landslide'

Only 3 people spat at him in the first hour.

El_Dave

HYUFD said:

El_Dave said:

HYUFD said:

El_Dave said:

notme said:

Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.

I'm assuming that unless Remain win big (70:30?), that Mr Cameron will be replaced by a Leave MP shortly after the result comes in.

I think the Cons would then be well placed to convert Leave-Labour supporters.

Cameron will stay if Remain win, he will only be gone if they lose. If it is a narrow Remain though Osborne will not succeed him.

A narrow Remain win, will still mean Con voters supported Leave 2:1.

There's already enough bad blood in the parliamentary Conservative Party to trigger a leadership contest. To avert that Remain has to be a big win.

No, Yougov today has 51% of the country saying Cameron should step down straight away or within a year if Leave wins and 46% of Tory voters saying the same. Only 32% say he should step down if Remain wins within that timeframe and just 25% of Tory voters say he should do so
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qi3olqsp2n/SundayTimesResults_160610_EUReferendum.pdf

I read an article earlier in the week, that in a snippet towards the end, mentioned that Conservative MPs had been asked to sign a letter saying that Mr Cameron would not face an immediate leadership contest after the referendum. They reportedly couldn't get anyone to sign it, so it was dropped.

Charles

TheScreamingEagles said:

To put it bluntly. Remain are relying on those that don't vote in great numbers, the youth. Whilst Leave are relying on those that don't vote in great numbers either, the lower socio-economic groups.

My guess is that those who feel they are cut out of their fair share of the spoils are nice likely to vote to change the system than people who might think the future will be slightly less rosy

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.

Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom

Define 'landslide'

Remain with 65/70 % of the vote.

'Course it is, TSE. 'Course it is!

Naught but REMAIN lies and propaganda!

Omnium

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.

Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom

Define 'landslide'

Only 3 people spat at him in the first hour.

Nonsense - TSE tells it as he sees it. I think most on this site do.

viewcode

topov said:

Can someone please post a link to the local authority "par" spreadsheet referred to in the previous thread?

It may be this:

https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/the-eu-referendum-what-to-expect-on-the-night-521792dd3eef#.f5l2n5v1g

You're welcome.

TheScreamingEagles

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.

Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom

Define 'landslide'

Remain with 65/70 % of the vote.

I'm surprised that even in Clegg-central it's so strong. Well done you Remainers.

(fwiw I'm still undecided)

Most of the staff of the two universities live here, you've got most of the NHS staff from Sheffield's many hospitals living here too.

UKIP polled 6 and a bit per cent last year.

I'd be worried if it wasn't a Remain landslide here.

Roger

Despite the even air time 'Remain' are starting to look more professional and 'Leave' more ragged. I know there's something appealing about the shambling amateur but now that it's turning from hypothetical to real with just ten days to go the well oiled machine must be looking very tempting.

I sense they've timed this just right. This celebrity endorsement is gathering pace and the undecideds faced with a barrage of well chosen experts warning of what's to come it's going to be difficult to ignore. I still think the 'scary place' is a huge issue and though it can be blustered with 6 weeks to go with Referendum day looming people need answers

MontyHall

I am shown three doors, behind one is a keyboard warrior, behind the other two are leave campaigners.

I open door number one and it is someone who has posted 38 thousand times on a politics website.

Do I switch?

AramintaMoonbeamQC

topov said:

Can someone please post a link to the local authority "par" spreadsheet referred to in the previous thread?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tRE59IkgeRREISpM75I8gR0MdkGe1diParW0hVO109Y/htmlview?pli=1#gid=927848577

another_richard

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.

Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom

Define 'landslide'

Remain with 65/70 % of the vote.

I'm surprised that even in Clegg-central it's so strong. Well done you Remainers.

(fwiw I'm still undecided)

The problem is that the Cameron fan club were predicting 65/70% Remain nationwide a couple of months ago.

Hallam had a combined 80% LibDem/Lab/Green vote in 2015.

Indigo

rottenborough said:

Danny565 said:

FPT:

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??

You said exactly the same last night and I will give exactly the same response, this is New Labour people, Corbyn and those around him will do nothing more than shrug if it is Leave

Well, perhaps, but (also as I said last night) this referendum is showing that the New Labour "moderates" are just as willing to indulge their fringe obsessions as the hard left are.

Whereas the hard left get all obsessed about nuclear weapons which are probably never going to get used anyway, the "moderates" have an inexplicable fetish for staying in the EU above all else, despite it having very little impact one way or the other on normal people's lives. Both are just "virtue signalling" for different ideologies: the hard left want to show how right-on and pacifist they are, while the "moderates" want to parrot all the slogans about being "outward-looking" and "engaged with the world". The likes of Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna have been practically frothing at the mouth with horror at Brexit.

Meanwhile, the wait for a return to a proper Labour Party, which puts practical measures to help the poorest people as by FAR their top priority, with all other issues being secondary, goes on.

Wrecking the economy for years by Brexit is not going to help the poorest.

This would be the economy that even the governments scaremongering figures could only describe as 36% better off in 15 years instead of 42% better off ? Can we leave the "wrecking the economy" hypobole at the door please ? Incidentally, the poorest will be the people most enthusiastically voting for it.

Paul_Bedfordshire

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.

Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom

Define 'landslide'

He managed to find a Remain voter. Given that Hallam is infested with libdem diehards who still elected clegg that is not entirely surprising.

What is more interesting is that he and his colleagues felt the need to canvas somewhere that ought to be a slam dunk for Remain.

Ken

alex. said:

I wonder if any Leave campaigners have crossover with Scottish Independence campaigners? Because i'm sure all the same experiences were had then.

Yeah, me, as I campaigned for Yes and am now doing the same for Leave. There are some similarities, in that we were insurgents then and feel the same way now, but the differences are striking.

Back then we had an army of enthusiastic young people campaigning for Yes, and now we have platoons of older people fighting for Leave. Also back then it really felt as if everything up to and including the kitchen sink was being thrown at us in the last two weeks, but now we seem to have the field to ourselves. The other side are not putting any effort in at all.

Another big difference is the level of involvement. Two years ago it seemed as if we were all wearing Yes badges, with the Noes only arriving in the final week after an opinion poll put us ahead. The Remainers have been consistently ahead, so why are they not strutting around like boxers before a bout? They need to enthuse their voters, but that is just not happening.

One similarity is that both Yes voters and Leavers today are not voting on economic issues. Back then we had to pretend that it was an economic argument to try and sway the Noes, when actually it wasn't, but now our voters tell us that it is about immigration and taking back control. They do not care if there is an economic downside, they just want their country back. In other words, the Leave voters are making the running, at least in Scotland, and we just nod our heads to whatever they say.

One final point - in Edinburgh the middle class tend to speak with an English-type accent. If you encounter a voter with the hard, local, Scottish accent then he will probably be a Leaver, and be only to pleased to tell you why. We found that in the IndyRef as well amongst the Yessers. However, back then the Noes were far more assertive overall in their attitudes, whereas now they sort of smile and pass on by. If they vote, it will be for Remain - if they vote.

You want a prediction? Edinburgh will vote Remain, but we are working our hearts out to keep it below 60%. If we can get Leave to 45% I would think of that as a triumph. We can do no more.

murali_s

another_richard said:

Will Tyson be apologising for his bigoted comments about English football fans ?

' Uefa has expressed its “utter disgust” and opened disciplinary proceedings against Russia for crowd disturbances, racist behaviour by fans and fireworks being set off during the European Championship game against England on Saturday. Uefa has not opened any case against the English Football Association. '

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/jun/12/uefa-open-disciplinary-proceedings-russia-england-marseille-euro-2016

Russia should be thrown out. Simples.

Richard_Tyndall

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I was actually in Sheffield station for 20 minutes on Friday afternoon. I turned back there after doing the Nottingham to Chesterfield line (Erewash Valley line) for the first time.

Probably wise. Sheffield really is a bit of a pit compared to somewhere like Leeds or Manchester. What is funny is some of people I know from Sheffield say they like it because of how easy it is to get out of the city quickly up onto the moors.

So basically they are saying the best thing about Sheffield is leaving it.

Sunil_Prasannan

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.

Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom

Define 'landslide'

He managed to find a Remain voter. Given that Hallam is infested with libdem diehards who still elected clegg that is not entirely surprising.

TSE is truly a LibDem at heart.

viewcode

MontyHall said:

I am shown three doors, behind one is a keyboard warrior, behind the other two are leave campaigners.

I open door number one and it is someone who has posted 38 thousand times on a politics website.

Do I switch?

The leave campaigners are also keyboard warriors, so it would make no difference if you switch. However, if they have a variable number of goats...

another_richard

Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:

"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift"
"Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift"
"The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"

have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".

Paul_Bedfordshire

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.

Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom

Define 'landslide'

He managed to find a Remain voter. Given that Hallam is infested with libdem diehards who still elected clegg that is not entirely surprising.

TSE is truly a LibDem at heart.

So are Cameron Osborne Major Blair Mandelson, Heseltine and Clarke. That is the core of the problem.

Philip_Thompson

RoyalBlue said:

Leave victory, Bojo as leader and PM, October election.

Tory landslide, and total marginalisation of Corbyn's Labour Party and Remainers in general.

I can dream

We can do better than that.

Leave victory, Gove as leader and PM (or BoJo if we must), spend next 4 years implementing Leave and avoiding the worst of what was projected by scare mongering.

2020 Tory landslide and total marginalisation of Corbyn's Labour Party. Nine more years of Tory government from today.

I can dream

chestnut

HYUFD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

To put it bluntly. Remain are relying on those that don't vote in great numbers, the youth. Whilst Leave are relying on those that don't vote in great numbers either, the lower socio-economic groups.

I do not agree that LEAVE are relying on the lower socio-economic groups to vote for them. They will benefit from some of these Labour voters in that group not voting for REMAIN. Which is what the alarm in Labour REMAIN ranks is all about.

Yougov today has ABC1s backing Remain by 60% to 40%, C2DEs backing Leave by 66% to 34% so it is true to say Leave are relying on lower socio-economic groups
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qi3olqsp2n/SundayTimesResults_160610_EUReferendum.pdf

There is a danger in reading across National Readership Categories to economic position.

20% of "E" have outright property ownership, while many ABs will be private tenants.

C2 skilled tradesmen are generally more affluent than C1 pen-pushers.

Danny565

another_richard said:

Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:

"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift"
"Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift"
"The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"

have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".

To be fair, did anyone really think Sarah Wollaston was going to shift votes? I thought the main argument was whether her conversion was genuine, or if it was for "career reasons".

That said, your right that the Obama intervention showed just how little the "Remain" campaigners understand voters. Brits do NOT like being bossed around by the US.

RoyalBlue

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

What utter horsesh1t. I and others like me have been leafleting for Leave twice a weekend for THREE MONTHS. For the last two weeks we've been canvassing most week nights and all weekends. We do not live in Boston, the Western Isles or other Leave strongholds.

ThreeQuidder

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

To put it bluntly. Remain are relying on those that don't vote in great numbers, the youth. Whilst Leave are relying on those that don't vote in great numbers either, the lower socio-economic groups.

My guess is that those who feel they are cut out of their fair share of the spoils are nice likely to vote to change the system than people who might think the future will be slightly less rosy

If (and it's a big if) people who don't normally vote because "there's no point because they're all the same" turn out in any significant numbers, Remain is in deep trouble. I'm not convinced pollsters would necessarily pick up on it, either...

Paul_Bedfordshire

Danny565 said:

another_richard said:

Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:

"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift"
"Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift"
"The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"

have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".

To be fair, did anyone really think Sarah Wollaston was going to shift votes? I thought the main argument was whether her conversion was genuine, or if it was for "career reasons".

That said, your right that the Obama intervention showed just how little the "Remain" campaigners understand voters. Brits do NOT like being bossed around by the US.

Or anyone else for that matter

john_zims

@Alanbrooke


'Well I don't really bother with social media but have you tried this one ?

https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/with_replies

quite a passionate outspoken chappy'


Is he angry or what ?

All that New Labour stuff down the pan.

malcolmg

another_richard said:

Will Tyson be apologising for his bigoted comments about English football fans ?

' Uefa has expressed its “utter disgust” and opened disciplinary proceedings against Russia for crowd disturbances, racist behaviour by fans and fireworks being set off during the European Championship game against England on Saturday. Uefa has not opened any case against the English Football Association. '

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/jun/12/uefa-open-disciplinary-proceedings-russia-england-marseille-euro-2016

I doubt anyone could pretend that they have been well behaved since arriving, even though it will likely be a minority. It has been well seen on screen them burning bars, fighting police and generally being thugs.
Impossible to try and support that.

IanB2

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

One of the younger members of my family is a fully paid up Corbynite. He constantly makes the error of thinking that the 'workers' are internationalists, and further left than they are. He got a horrible shock when in his first election campaign (2016 Holyrood), Lab were routed in the centre left by the SNP and hard left RISE got fewer votes than the fundamentalist Christian party in most regions.

As Lenin and Stalin discovered after the revolution, with eventually terrible consequences.......

FrancisUrquhart

I wonder what, if any effect, this shooting I florida will have on POTUS race. I am sure trump won't have anything to say on the matter.

Omnium

TheScreamingEagles said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.

Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom

Define 'landslide'

Remain with 65/70 % of the vote.

I'm surprised that even in Clegg-central it's so strong. Well done you Remainers.

(fwiw I'm still undecided)

Most of the staff of the two universities live here, you've got most of the NHS staff from Sheffield's many hospitals living here too.

UKIP polled 6 and a bit per cent last year.

I'd be worried if it wasn't a Remain landslide here.

A marginal result won't be good. If there are places voting 66/33 the other way to whatever the result is it'll be tough.

Are the Universities there any good?

Alanbrooke

john_zims said:

@Alanbrooke


'Well I don't really bother with social media but have you tried this one ?

https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/with_replies

quite a passionate outspoken chappy'


Is he angry or what ?

All that New Labour stuff down the pan.

At the rate he's sledging Corbyn he'll end up voting Cameron

another_richard

Richard_Tyndall said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I was actually in Sheffield station for 20 minutes on Friday afternoon. I turned back there after doing the Nottingham to Chesterfield line (Erewash Valley line) for the first time.

Probably wise. Sheffield really is a bit of a pit compared to somewhere like Leeds or Manchester. What is funny is some of people I know from Sheffield say they like it because of how easy it is to get out of the city quickly up onto the moors.

So basically they are saying the best thing about Sheffield is leaving it.

The countryside to the west of Sheffield is very nice and easy to get to and some of studenty areas in Broomhill and Nether Edge are visually attractive. But for the most part it really is a bit of a pit.

Sheffield tends to have a 'chip on its shoulder' because it wants to rival Leeds but never will.

chestnut

Have I understood this correctly, TSE?

You are campaigning in Sheffield Hallam?

The constituency of Nick Clegg, arguably the most high profile europhile of the last decade and one of 8 seats that returned a Lib Dem MP?

Surely, they were in the bag to start with?

brokenwheel

TheScreamingEagles said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.

Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom

Define 'landslide'

Remain with 65/70 % of the vote.

I'm surprised that even in Clegg-central it's so strong. Well done you Remainers.

(fwiw I'm still undecided)

Most of the staff of the two universities live here, you've got most of the NHS staff from Sheffield's many hospitals living here too.

UKIP polled 6 and a bit per cent last year.

I'd be worried if it wasn't a Remain landslide here.

Quite, if you were losing there we might as well not bother with the referendum.

But if 65-70 is your high point, as i suspect places like Hallam will be, then...

Philip_Thompson

chestnut said:

On Topic

It isn't just the phone/online divide that causes issues with understanding the current situation; it's the variable presentation of the data.

Take Opinium yesterday.

Vote Intention was presented using 10/10 to vote numbers while the referendum result was presented using a different indicator. Why?

Some headline numbers are presented on things like 95% turnout, which is just plain stupid.

The polling industry needs to get it's act together and publish in some consistent way.

a) 10/10 Vote Certainty
b) All respondents
c) All probable voters (6/10+)
d) Pollster weighted turnout

These things are often in the detail but it should form part of the executive summary/press release so there is an obvious commonality of presentation.

I think the BPC if it wants its organisation and industry to be taken seriously should make one very simple and clear rule change: No methodology changes whatsoever to be done during purdah.

The pollsters have plenty of time to nail down there methodology outside of election campaigns. During one is not the time to massage the stats to herd towards the middle. Set your methodology as one you believe in, in advance, then publish the results as they may be.

Feel free to give qualifiers or commentary when you publish, but quit fiddling with the figures during purdah.

HurstLlama

HYUFD said:

El_Dave said:

HYUFD said:

El_Dave said:

notme said:

Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.

I'm assuming that unless Remain win big (70:30?), that Mr Cameron will be replaced by a Leave MP shortly after the result comes in.

I think the Cons would then be well placed to convert Leave-Labour supporters.

Cameron will stay if Remain win, he will only be gone if they lose. If it is a narrow Remain though Osborne will not succeed him.

A narrow Remain win, will still mean Con voters supported Leave 2:1.

There's already enough bad blood in the parliamentary Conservative Party to trigger a leadership contest. To avert that Remain has to be a big win.

No, Yougov today has 51% of the country saying Cameron should step down straight away or within a year if Leave wins and 46% of Tory voters saying the same. Only 32% say he should step down if Remain wins within that timeframe and just 25% of Tory voters say he should do so
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qi3olqsp2n/SundayTimesResults_160610_EUReferendum.pdf

Mr. HyFD, we know from the last GE that polling companies will produce polls that suit their narrative, and suppress results that do not. We also know that currently those same polling companies are currently changing their methodology from week to week (see diverse posts on here). Frankly, I think that US alsatian owned by one of the US Tims, or indeed my own cat, is a more reliable indicator than YouGov.

john_zims

@Alanbrooke


'At the rate he's sledging Corbyn he'll end up voting Cameron'


As far as John McDonnell is concerned I've got him down as undecided.

RoyalBlue

Ken said:

alex. said:

I wonder if any Leave campaigners have crossover with Scottish Independence campaigners? Because i'm sure all the same experiences were had then.

Yeah, me, as I campaigned for Yes and am now doing the same for Leave. There are some similarities, in that we were insurgents then and feel the same way now, but the differences are striking.

Back then we had an army of enthusiastic young people campaigning for Yes, and now we have platoons of older people fighting for Leave. Also back then it really felt as if everything up to and including the kitchen sink was being thrown at us in the last two weeks, but now we seem to have the field to ourselves. The other side are not putting any effort in at all.

Another big difference is the level of involvement. Two years ago it seemed as if we were all wearing Yes badges, with the Noes only arriving in the final week after an opinion poll put us ahead. The Remainers have been consistently ahead, so why are they not strutting around like boxers before a bout? They need to enthuse their voters, but that is just not happening.

One similarity is that both Yes voters and Leavers today are not voting on economic issues. Back then we had to pretend that it was an economic argument to try and sway the Noes, when actually it wasn't, but now our voters tell us that it is about immigration and taking back control. They do not care if there is an economic downside, they just want their country back. In other words, the Leave voters are making the running, at least in Scotland, and we just nod our heads to whatever they say.

One final point - in Edinburgh the middle class tend to speak with an English-type accent. If you encounter a voter with the hard, local, Scottish accent then he will probably be a Leaver, and be only to pleased to tell you why. We found that in the IndyRef as well amongst the Yessers. However, back then the Noes were far more assertive overall in their attitudes, whereas now they sort of smile and pass on by. If they vote, it will be for Remain - if they vote.

You want a prediction? Edinburgh will vote Remain, but we are working our hearts out to keep it below 60%. If we can get Leave to 45% I would think of that as a triumph. We can do no more.

Thanks so much for your posts. It's really exciting to hear something genuinely new on this site!

PlatoSaid

FBI: Orlando attacker appeared to "have leanings towards" radical Islam, investigating whether was "lone wolf" https://t.co/4Y6gulvW07

HYUFD

Danny565 said:

another_richard said:

Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:

"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift"
"Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift"
"The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"

have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".

To be fair, did anyone really think Sarah Wollaston was going to shift votes? I thought the main argument was whether her conversion was genuine, or if it was for "career reasons".

That said, your right that the Obama intervention showed just how little the "Remain" campaigners understand voters. Brits do NOT like being bossed around by the US.

Trump has endorsed Brexit, so it is which side of the US you want to be bossed around by, Obama or Trump!

Y0kel

The mass murder in the club in Orlando is feared to be a politically/religiously inspired attack and not just a singular nut-job with or without anti gay prejudices.

Paul_Bedfordshire

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?

From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.

Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?

The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.

I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.

But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.

That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.

I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.

Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.

Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.

So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?

Quod erat demonstrandum

Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days

While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.

I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.

Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom

Define 'landslide'

Remain with 65/70 % of the vote.

I'm surprised that even in Clegg-central it's so strong. Well done you Remainers.

(fwiw I'm still undecided)

Most of the staff of the two universities live here, you've got most of the NHS staff from Sheffield's many hospitals living here too.

UKIP polled 6 and a bit per cent last year.

I'd be worried if it wasn't a Remain landslide here.

A marginal result won't be good. If there are places voting 66/33 the other way to whatever the result is it'll be tough.

Are the Universities there any good?

The fact TSE and his fellow travellers see a need to use valuable volunteers canvassing and trying to get out the vote somewhere like that which should be remain slam dunk tells you more about where this is going than 100 opinion polls.

TheScreamingEagles

chestnut said:

Have I understood this correctly, TSE?

You are campaigning in Sheffield Hallam?

The constituency of Nick Clegg, arguably the most high profile europhile of the last decade and one of 8 seats that returned a Lib Dem MP?

Surely, they were in the bag to start with?

We've done done some work there. Most of the focus has been in the other Sheffield seats.

I don't go to places like Firth Park, Page Hall Road, or Spital Hill for the fun of it.

HYUFD

El_Dave said:

HYUFD said:

El_Dave said:

HYUFD said:

El_Dave said:

notme said:

Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.

I'm assuming that unless Remain win big (70:30?), that Mr Cameron will be replaced by a Leave MP shortly after the result comes in.

I think the Cons would then be well placed to convert Leave-Labour supporters.

Cameron will stay if Remain win, he will only be gone if they lose. If it is a narrow Remain though Osborne will not succeed him.

A narrow Remain win, will still mean Con voters supported Leave 2:1.

There's already enough bad blood in the parliamentary Conservative Party to trigger a leadership contest. To avert that Remain has to be a big win.

No, Yougov today has 51% of the country saying Cameron should step down straight away or within a year if Leave wins and 46% of Tory voters saying the same. Only 32% say he should step down if Remain wins within that timeframe and just 25% of Tory voters say he should do so
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qi3olqsp2n/SundayTimesResults_160610_EUReferendum.pdf

I read an article earlier in the week, that in a snippet towards the end, mentioned that Conservative MPs had been asked to sign a letter saying that Mr Cameron would not face an immediate leadership contest after the referendum. They reportedly couldn't get anyone to sign it, so it was dropped.

He may face a contest but he will only lose it if it is Leave, he will probably have resigned anyway, if it is Remain he will win it comfortably

Indigo

another_richard said:

Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:

"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift"
"Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift"
"The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"

have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".

Wall to wall coverage on the BBC about Wollaston, and not a peep about Finch-Saunders switching to Leave, funny old world.

Alanbrooke

HurstLlama said:

HYUFD said:

El_Dave said:

HYUFD said:

El_Dave said:

notme said:

Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.

I'm assuming that unless Remain win big (70:30?), that Mr Cameron will be replaced by a Leave MP shortly after the result comes in.

I think the Cons would then be well placed to convert Leave-Labour supporters.

Cameron will stay if Remain win, he will only be gone if they lose. If it is a narrow Remain though Osborne will not succeed him.

A narrow Remain win, will still mean Con voters supported Leave 2:1.

There's already enough bad blood in the parliamentary Conservative Party to trigger a leadership contest. To avert that Remain has to be a big win.

No, Yougov today has 51% of the country saying Cameron should step down straight away or within a year if Leave wins and 46% of Tory voters saying the same. Only 32% say he should step down if Remain wins within that timeframe and just 25% of Tory voters say he should do so
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qi3olqsp2n/SundayTimesResults_160610_EUReferendum.pdf

Mr. HyFD, we know from the last GE that polling companies will produce polls that suit their narrative, and suppress results that do not. We also know that currently those same polling companies are currently changing their methodology from week to week (see diverse posts on here). Frankly, I think that US alsatian owned by one of the US Tims, or indeed my own cat, is a more reliable indicator than YouGov.

Mr L

you probably missed it, but I was interested in your MP versus his constituency

a) what do you think your constituency result will be
b) what do you think his constituency party split is

Philip_Thompson

MontyHall said:

I am shown three doors, behind one is a keyboard warrior, behind the other two are leave campaigners.

I open door number one and it is someone who has posted 38 thousand times on a politics website.

Do I switch?

LOL

another_richard

malcolmg said:

another_richard said:

Will Tyson be apologising for his bigoted comments about English football fans ?

' Uefa has expressed its “utter disgust” and opened disciplinary proceedings against Russia for crowd disturbances, racist behaviour by fans and fireworks being set off during the European Championship game against England on Saturday. Uefa has not opened any case against the English Football Association. '

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/jun/12/uefa-open-disciplinary-proceedings-russia-england-marseille-euro-2016

I doubt anyone could pretend that they have been well behaved since arriving, even though it will likely be a minority. It has been well seen on screen them burning bars, fighting police and generally being thugs.
Impossible to try and support that.

But its a stark comparison to how well things were handled at the 2006WC in Germany.

A combination of French plods, local Algerians and Russians on the other hand.

Plus anyone else who wants some 'action':

' Fan violence also erupted in Nice, where French hooligans fought with fans from Northern Ireland and Poland. '

brokenwheel

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

another_richard said:

Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:

"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift"
"Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift"
"The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"

have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".

To be fair, did anyone really think Sarah Wollaston was going to shift votes? I thought the main argument was whether her conversion was genuine, or if it was for "career reasons".

That said, your right that the Obama intervention showed just how little the "Remain" campaigners understand voters. Brits do NOT like being bossed around by the US.

Trump has endorsed Brexit, so it is which side of the US you want to be bossed around by, Obama or Trump!

To my knowledge Trump hasn't said that if we remain we will be sent to the back of the queue...

That said, i REALLY hope Trump stays away til after the refendum.

PlatoSaid

Danny565 said:

FPT:

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??

You said exactly the same last night and I will give exactly the same response, this is New Labour people, Corbyn and those around him will do nothing more than shrug if it is Leave

Well, perhaps, but (also as I said last night) this referendum is showing that the New Labour "moderates" are just as willing to indulge their fringe obsessions as the hard left are.

Whereas the hard left get all obsessed about nuclear weapons which are probably never going to get used anyway, the "moderates" have an inexplicable fetish for staying in the EU above all else, despite it having very little impact one way or the other on normal people's lives. Both are just "virtue signalling" for different ideologies: the hard left want to show how right-on and pacifist they are, while the "moderates" want to parrot all the slogans about being "outward-looking" and "engaged with the world". The likes of Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna have been practically frothing at the mouth with horror at Brexit.

Meanwhile, the wait for a return to a proper Labour Party, which puts practical measures to help the poorest people as by FAR their top priority, with all other issues being secondary, goes on.

Chuka got very close to calling Leavers racists yesterday.

GeoffM

Y0kel said:

The mass murder in the club in Orlando is feared to be a politically/religiously inspired attack and not just a singular nut-job with or without anti gay prejudices.

The FBI are already being quoted as suspecting the Religion of Peace.
So with our best Politically Correct hats on we need to ignore this story for the moment.

El_Dave

HYUFD said:

El_Dave said:

HYUFD said:

El_Dave said:

HYUFD said:

El_Dave said:

notme said:

Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.

I'm assuming that unless Remain win big (70:30?), that Mr Cameron will be replaced by a Leave MP shortly after the result comes in.

I think the Cons would then be well placed to convert Leave-Labour supporters.

Cameron will stay if Remain win, he will only be gone if they lose. If it is a narrow Remain though Osborne will not succeed him.

A narrow Remain win, will still mean Con voters supported Leave 2:1.

There's already enough bad blood in the parliamentary Conservative Party to trigger a leadership contest. To avert that Remain has to be a big win.

No, Yougov today has 51% of the country saying Cameron should step down straight away or within a year if Leave wins and 46% of Tory voters saying the same. Only 32% say he should step down if Remain wins within that timeframe and just 25% of Tory voters say he should do so
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qi3olqsp2n/SundayTimesResults_160610_EUReferendum.pdf

I read an article earlier in the week, that in a snippet towards the end, mentioned that Conservative MPs had been asked to sign a letter saying that Mr Cameron would not face an immediate leadership contest after the referendum. They reportedly couldn't get anyone to sign it, so it was dropped.

He may face a contest but he will only lose it if it is Leave, he will probably have resigned anyway, if it is Remain he will win it comfortably

? His numbers with Con members are pretty grim.

http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/cameron-slumps-boris-slides-and-davidson-soars-in-our-cabinet-league-table.html

NickPalmer

Gallowgate said:

Pauly said:

Gallowgate said:

FWIW I left the Labour Party today, and I voted for Corbyn.

Care to elaborate? Is it due to his stealthy approach to this campaign or something completely different...

For one, I think Corbyn should have been honest about his position and then campaigned for it, regardless if I agreed with it or not. The new honest type of politics that I was promised appears to be a lie.

I also am amazed about how amateur the party has been, both in parliament and out since the last election.

I'm also sad about the lack of focus on the North from the Labour Party, despite the amount of votes it gets from here.

I will remain partyless for a while I think.

I take the point on amateurishness and maybe the North (though I'm not sure that's still true), but Corbyn is saying what he thinks - I've known him for 4 decades. He used to be opposed to membership, but now thinks that it's really the only game in town for socialism, despite its obvious problems.

The tradition in Britain is that if you decide to support something you should then go all out, pretending it's the perfect solution and everyone who doesn't agree is deluded. He doesn't do that - he simply says what he thinks - he's not keen on it but thinks that withdrawal would be very damaging, especially with the right-wing Tory government that would follow. I think it's a pity if you resign rather than allow leaders to express a nuanced view.

Philip_Thompson

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

topov said:

Can someone please post a link to the local authority "par" spreadsheet referred to in the previous thread?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tRE59IkgeRREISpM75I8gR0MdkGe1diParW0hVO109Y/htmlview?pli=1#gid=927848577

Is that at "par"?