Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
My guess is that they will find that we've gone off and struck better deals elsewhere.
There's a big wide world with lots of opportunity in it.
Something of a non-sequitur. Whether we've "struck deals elsewhere" is irrelevant to what happens to our trading relationship with the EU, at enforced point of exit. The two aren't mutually exclusive.
It matters enormously in terms of whether we are better off or worse off.
I wonder how long it would take us to sign the deal that the EU have been trying to strike with Canada for seven years if we were free to act unilaterally, for example?
/blockquote>
And outside the EU members and Switzerland the EU has failed to secure a comprehensive trade deal with any of those countries. And the trade deal they are looking to secure with the US comes with so much extra baggage included it is very likely going to fall before it gets anywhere near agreement.
The question has to be asked, how could we actually do any worse than the EU has done?
Here's a question Richard.
I'm sure we could do all kind of trade deals here there and everywhere, but many economists have forecast that there will be a diminution in GDP in the coming years if we leave.
Do you think that in aggregate we would be able, economically, to put ourselves in a better place if we left? It is a bold assumption (and I don't think you are an economist).
I get the Freedom! debate - freedom for UK kettle manufacturers to make kettles howsoever they goddamn please. But aggregate GDP levels? Not so sure.
For coherence, unless you are Patrick Minford, then I would stick with the Freedom thing: It is a price worth paying for our sovereignty to leave the EU.
If we vote the Leave the EU, the MOST IMPORTANT area for putting a trade agreement in place will be... the EU. An EU which all agree is incredibly ponderous and slow to negotiate and implement trade agreements...
You're quite right. Weighing against that is that the UK runs a considerable trade deficit with the EU. Much of our EU trade is weighted quite heavily to the original EU8. In our top 25 trading partners you'll find the very important ones are Germany, France, Netherlands (bit deceptive that one - Rotterdam etc), Eire. Important: Belgium, Italy, Spain, Sweden. Notable: Poland, Norway (OK, it's not in the EU). The USA and China are our really important non-EU partners. None of this is surprising.
I vacillate between thinking they'll be bloody-minded pour encourager les autres, or pragmatic, because, damn, we're among their largest export markets (e.g. we're #3 on Germany's list).
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .
I was being polite to Leave, which is possibly the most dishonest political campaign I have been subjected to. More so than the Yes Scotland campaign in 2014, which itself was a dodgy affair.
To be clear I am talking about the campaigns themselves, not the choices, which are reasonable ones.
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .
It wasn't an ambition though was it. Treasury policy was to max out immigration to clear the deficit.
Unless and until it becomes clear that there was a specific Islamic motive for the attacks in Orlando isn't it better to hold off on the speculation. Yes in the end it is likely that was the case but it is equally possible this was just a very disturbed individual who happened to be Muslim.
This doesn't mean I look any more favourably on Islam. I still pretty much detest it as a concept and a force in the world. But some people will end up looking really dumb if it turns out this bloke had serious mental issues unconnected with his faith.
I'm always inclined to the mentally unstable theory. I don't think well-adjusted people are inclined to mass murder, even Moslems.
Telegraph reporting he made a pledge of allegiance to ISIS.
That doesn't contradict being mentally unwell, particularly delusions of grandeur.
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .
The 2010 manifesto said: So we will take steps to take net migration back to the levels of the 1990s –- tens of thousands a year, not hundreds of thousands.
kle4- to Brexiters- if we vote remain, we know pretty much what we are going to get. The EU will muddle along with all it's imperfections, the British economy will be relatively stable but still susceptible to global shocks as it was ever thus, London will continue to power ahead.
But with Brexit- there is a strong chance there will be an immediate run on sterling, and a flow of capital out of the UK. A one off shock would be OK- but this is likely to be accompanied by years of political and economic uncertainty which are likely to exacerbate any normal recessionary cycle. And we will be hit by the spectre of inflation- the imported inflation that we faced in the 70's, except poor productivity and recessionary factors will keep wages down.
The EU will have to punish the UK for a Brexit. It cannot afford to let the UK thrive outside, so we'll get the worst trading terms.
If the UK gets poorer- and the scaremongering from remain is proved to be right, who do I blame?
You make it sound like we're in a street gang and can never leave.
Seems a fair analogy.
We have to pay protection money to keep on trading with the EU, and are threatened with dire outcomes if we want to leave.
If this was a housing estate, we would have the government complaining about gang culture.
If this was a marriage, the courts would be stepping in.
But as it's the EU, that's alright then...
Been saying this for months. It's a protection racket pure and simple.
You wanna trade well pay up and we will look, after you ( that's a laugh as well). If you don't pay we will send the boys round and smash your windows in. Oh and for good measure we have on the payroll that guy that supplies you from the next town who says you will be at the back of the queue for any deliveries and well charge you 3 times as much if you refuse.
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .
"We will: keep our ambition of delivering annual net migration in the tens of thousands, not the hundreds of thousands"
I think saying "maintain" rather than "keep" would have been better. The word keep implies it's a promise. Of course, they were more than happy for the press to report it as a promise.
Horrible news from Florida. Guns and lunatics do not mix well. I have no doubt that if we had laxer gun controls we'd have many more shootings.
The worry for continental Europe is that as IS is defeated, militarily-hardened extemists will slip back home to countries where automatic weapons are relatively easily available across land borders. We have some protection because we are an island but you'd hope the boffins are working on some sort of scanning for St Pancras where Eurostar terminates
The Russian hooligans showed how easy it is to get into Europe undetected....
Didn't see them spraying England fans with automatic weapons, but I wasn't paying that much attention....
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
It is unlikely the EU would immediately start a trade war with its major export market. Chances are, however great a Leave win, nothing much will happen in the short term.
Agreed. There will be no trade war. That's not the EU's style. They will simply ignore us. It's what they do with Switzerland who have been in the doghouse for years.
Horrible news from Florida. Guns and lunatics do not mix well. I have no doubt that if we had laxer gun controls we'd have many more shootings.
The worry for continental Europe is that as IS is defeated, militarily-hardened extemists will slip back home to countries where automatic weapons are relatively easily available across land borders. We have some protection because we are an island but you'd hope the boffins are working on some sort of scanning for St Pancras where Eurostar terminates
The Russian hooligans showed how easy it is to get into Europe undetected....
Didn't see them spraying England fans with automatic weapons, but I wasn't paying that much attention....
Security at the stadium was obviously lax given that the Russians were able to smuggle in flares and fireworks.
Unless and until it becomes clear that there was a specific Islamic motive for the attacks in Orlando isn't it better to hold off on the speculation. Yes in the end it is likely that was the case but it is equally possible this was just a very disturbed individual who happened to be Muslim.
This doesn't mean I look any more favourably on Islam. I still pretty much detest it as a concept and a force in the world. But some people will end up looking really dumb if it turns out this bloke had serious mental issues unconnected with his faith.
I'm always inclined to the mentally unstable theory. I don't think well-adjusted people are inclined to mass murder, even Moslems.
Telegraph reporting he made a pledge of allegiance to ISIS.
That doesn't contradict being mentally unwell, particularly delusions of grandeur.
It's the west's achilles heel. Because no-one here any longer believes in God we think nowhere else does.
Actually, they do. They see it as their mission to bring down the decadent lifestyle of the west. They genuinely believe every single syllable of the Qur'an was dictated to the prophet through the angel Jibril from the mouth of Allah. They are totally opposed to most of what you and I stand for and many of them will stop at nothing to change the west forever.
Call it mental illness if that makes you happier.
Hitchens has been banging on about the role of cannabis caused mental illness and paranoia in this. Just about everyone from high school killings via lee rigby killers and bataclan has had a history of cannabis use.
What happens if England play Northern Ireland regarding the national anthems? Would they play it twice?
It confirms the ridiculous notion of having God Save the Queen as the English anthem, England should have Jerusalem and NI Danny Boy, GSTQ should be saved for GB teams at the Olympics and the British Lions and events in the presence of a royal
What happens if England play Northern Ireland regarding the national anthems? Would they play it twice?
It confirms the ridiculous notion of having God Save the Queen as the English anthem, England should have Jerusalem and NI Danny Boy, GSTQ should be saved for GB teams at the Olympics and the British Lions and events in the presence of a royal
On a completely random unrelated question - does anyone know what the £70(?)k bank deposit guarantee applies to. Is it just savings accounts or does it extend to other financial products - fixed term bonds etc?
Horrible news from Florida. Guns and lunatics do not mix well. I have no doubt that if we had laxer gun controls we'd have many more shootings.
The worry for continental Europe is that as IS is defeated, militarily-hardened extemists will slip back home to countries where automatic weapons are relatively easily available across land borders. We have some protection because we are an island but you'd hope the boffins are working on some sort of scanning for St Pancras where Eurostar terminates
The Russian hooligans showed how easy it is to get into Europe undetected....
Didn't see them spraying England fans with automatic weapons, but I wasn't paying that much attention....
Security at the stadium was obviously lax given that the Russians were able to smuggle in flares and fireworks.
OK, a fair point (although I still think DecrepitJohnL was referring to automatic weapons). I also read on here that there was no police presence inside the stadium!
I think we should all encourage Tyson to be Tyson. He's a one man Leave recruitment agency.
Interestingly if tyson said exactly what he's saying here on 'Any Questions' or 'Question Time' he'd be cheered to the rafters. Does it ever strike anyone that perhaps this site is overloaded with right wing reactionaries and tyson is more reflective of the mainstream?
The reason he is getting so tetchy is that he is wondering whether he actually is the mainstream.
Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?
Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.
Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.
This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.
The shooter may be a Muslim but the victims were largely homosexuals, not exactly Trump's demographic
I suspect that simple demographic arithmetic will not be a good guide to this election. Trump is a master at reframing an issue and you may find that it's some of the least likely groups who will be the ones to switch to him.
Trump is not going to win the gay vote, he opposes gay marriage for starters
If you are targeted for murder because of your sexuality you might be more concerned to have a President who will strive to keep you safe.
Not saying that Trump necessarily is that man. But events sometimes change peoples' priorities.
There is no evidence he will keep you safe, his travel ban on Muslims would not have stopped this shooting, the shooter was a US citizen
As has been mentioned - it would have stopped his parents.
Horrible news from Florida. Guns and lunatics do not mix well. I have no doubt that if we had laxer gun controls we'd have many more shootings.
The worry for continental Europe is that as IS is defeated, militarily-hardened extemists will slip back home to countries where automatic weapons are relatively easily available across land borders. We have some protection because we are an island but you'd hope the boffins are working on some sort of scanning for St Pancras where Eurostar terminates
The Russian hooligans showed how easy it is to get into Europe undetected....
Didn't see them spraying England fans with automatic weapons, but I wasn't paying that much attention....
If you can get fireworks and flare guns into (a) Europe and (b) the stadium you can also get AK47s and the like in.
Does this really have to be explained in words of one syllable?
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .
"We will: keep our ambition of delivering annual net migration in the tens of thousands, not the hundreds of thousands"
I think saying "maintain" rather than "keep" would have been better. The word keep implies it's a promise. Of course, they were more than happy for the press to report it as a promise.
The word keep may imply it is a promise, but the word two words after that certainly clarifies things.
I'm sure we could do all kind of trade deals here there and everywhere, but many economists have forecast that there will be a diminution in GDP in the coming years if we leave.
Do you think that in aggregate we would be able, economically, to put ourselves in a better place if we left? It is a bold assumption (and I don't think you are an economist).
I get the Freedom! debate - freedom for UK kettle manufacturers to make kettles howsoever they goddamn please. But aggregate GDP levels? Not so sure.
For coherence, unless you are Patrick Minford, then I would stick with the Freedom thing: It is a price worth paying for our sovereignty to leave the EU.
Yes I do think we could put ourselves in a better position economically because I think the most likely outcome from Brexit will be an EEA relationship. As such our trade with the EU will not be affected whilst we will be free to pursue our own trade agreements with the rest of the world. We will also be able to take part in the decision making process which sets the rules for world trade. Something we are currently unable to do directly.
I also strongly believe that Brexit will lead to a much quicker move to political union in the EU which will help solve the problems the Eurozone has been having with its own economic union. In the medium to long term this will benefit trade as a whole for the world economy.
As an aside - and it is not directly linked to this conversation right now - I dislike the continual reference to GDP instead of to GDP per capita. It is quite possible for GDP to increase whilst GDP per capita drops and that is certainly not good for a country.
Your last point first - addressed in my post to @MarkHopkins.
Your other points (although we have rehearsed this many times): despite my assumption of great pragmatism by rEU if we leave, I am not sure it they would accept us as an EEA membership. Looking at the emergency brake, for example, it is frought with problems a) to use permanently; and b) to apply it to the UK.
At ever stage (every three months) they would be looking for reasons for us to stop using it. That is not the situation of a grown up country.
I am also cautious about the length that WTO discussions take - if you think dealing with 27 countries is tricky..
Horrible news from Florida. Guns and lunatics do not mix well. I have no doubt that if we had laxer gun controls we'd have many more shootings.
The worry for continental Europe is that as IS is defeated, militarily-hardened extemists will slip back home to countries where automatic weapons are relatively easily available across land borders. We have some protection because we are an island but you'd hope the boffins are working on some sort of scanning for St Pancras where Eurostar terminates
The Russian hooligans showed how easy it is to get into Europe undetected....
Didn't see them spraying England fans with automatic weapons, but I wasn't paying that much attention....
Semi-automatic. Civilians can't get full automatic weapons even in the US.
What happens if England play Northern Ireland regarding the national anthems? Would they play it twice?
It confirms the ridiculous notion of having God Save the Queen as the English anthem, England should have Jerusalem and NI Danny Boy, GSTQ should be saved for GB teams at the Olympics and the British Lions and events in the presence of a royal
They play it twice when we play Liechtenstein.
Correct, though with different words
It was quite funny when we played them a few years back. The crowd were presumably all geared up towards the standard boo-ing of the opposition national anthem and found themselves trying to remember the words of the second verse
Horrible news from Florida. Guns and lunatics do not mix well. I have no doubt that if we had laxer gun controls we'd have many more shootings.
The worry for continental Europe is that as IS is defeated, militarily-hardened extemists will slip back home to countries where automatic weapons are relatively easily available across land borders. We have some protection because we are an island but you'd hope the boffins are working on some sort of scanning for St Pancras where Eurostar terminates
The Russian hooligans showed how easy it is to get into Europe undetected....
Didn't see them spraying England fans with automatic weapons, but I wasn't paying that much attention....
If you can get fireworks and flare guns into (a) Europe and (b) the stadium you can also get AK47s and the like in.
Does this really have to be explained in words of one syllable?
I agree the border is porous, but fireworks? You can buy those in shops!
However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).
I do remember the pound collapsing then, yes. I think at the time Thingy's predecessor was still in charge at the ECB and pursuing a strong Euro strategy and the UK had started QE (happy to be contradicted if I have the timings wrong). Remember the Greece black hole wasn't revealed until 2009(?) and Sarkozy was still boasting it was an Anglo-American problem...silly him.
The point being that that collapse was a known side effect of a deliberately pursued strategy. A post-Brexit collapse will be the result of an outcome not chosen by the UK government, as it pivots from a pro-economy to an anti-immigration anti-economy stance: hieraeth and heimat instead of pennies and pounds.
Parenthetically I think the GBP collapse will be greater and/or longer than you think. And since Soros is piling into gold, he agrees with me...
You can trip over accidentally and bang your head, or you can deliberately whack yourself over the head with a frying pan.
Of course a post Brexit economic shock will be longer because it will be accompanied by years of economic and political uncertainty, something the markets and capital hate. Interest rates will need to rise to check imported inflation which will in turn strangle our economy through higher borrowing costs for government and mortgage holders.
In the post Brexit economic climate something will have to give as Britain adjusts to being poorer. Pensions, the NHS, private pensions, employment.
My wife's company has written to their employees urging them to register and vote remain.
I'm hoping common sense prevails come the 23rd. This whole Brexit debacle has shown to me that large parts of our country are racist, something Brexit will not help against incidentally. I'm hoping though that ultimately self interest will come out on top
Crawl away Tyson. You lost all credibility with your view that only those you agree with should be allowed to vote. You really are a worm.
I worked in children's mental health. If we had a self harming teenager who was cutting herself we would try and stop her, maybe though using the mental health act. But now I look around me and see an angry UK, angry at the world, change, worried, about to self harm by voting Brexit. Of course I would like to stop these people doing this.
That hole you are digging yourself gets deeper every time you post.
Tyson's a self-harming fat cat.
I've only just finished collecting all the spat dummies and putting all the toys back in the pram from the Tyson meltdown last night.
On a completely random unrelated question - does anyone know what the £70(?)k bank deposit guarantee applies to. Is it just savings accounts or does it extend to other financial products - fixed term bonds etc?
What happens if England play Northern Ireland regarding the national anthems? Would they play it twice?
It confirms the ridiculous notion of having God Save the Queen as the English anthem, England should have Jerusalem and NI Danny Boy, GSTQ should be saved for GB teams at the Olympics and the British Lions and events in the presence of a royal
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .
"We will: keep our ambition of delivering annual net migration in the tens of thousands, not the hundreds of thousands"
I think saying "maintain" rather than "keep" would have been better. The word keep implies it's a promise. Of course, they were more than happy for the press to report it as a promise.
The word keep may imply it is a promise, but the word two words after that certainly clarifies things.
Whatever, I didn't vote Tory so couldn't care less. That the Tories didn't make this abundantly clear 12 months ago is their own problem and chickens are coming home to roost.
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .
I was being polite to Leave, which is possibly the most dishonest political campaign I have been subjected to. More so than the Yes Scotland campaign in 2014, which itself was a dodgy affair.
To be clear I am talking about the campaigns themselves, not the choices, which are reasonable ones.
It's not even the most dishonest campaign in this referendum.
Miss Plato, no, but according to the Honest Trailer on ScreenJunkies, it's, perhaps surprisingly, the highest grossing superhero film of the last 10 years or so.
Homeland Security chairman: "It was an Islamist terrorist attack."
Here's a theory. Trump threatens ISIS in every speech... Part of their ideology requires "The Final Conflict" to happen soon.
Do they want Trump to win the election? Any other swing states lined up for a spectacular outrage?
Trump's travel ban policy on Muslims would not have stopped this shooter who was a US citizen
Might have stopped his parents, who were immigrants...
Most Americans are descended from immigrants unless they are American Indians
The right sort of immigrants, though.
I assume you mean "white" because you clearly can't mean "peaceful"
It's not a colour issue for most, I would imagine, but a matter of religion. People are wary of Muslims. And it's not a phobia, because the fear is - in fact - a rational one.
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .
"We will: keep our ambition of delivering annual net migration in the tens of thousands, not the hundreds of thousands"
I think saying "maintain" rather than "keep" would have been better. The word keep implies it's a promise. Of course, they were more than happy for the press to report it as a promise.
The word keep may imply it is a promise, but the word two words after that certainly clarifies things.
Regardless, they've clearly broken the promise to act with that as an ambition. There has been no action which could credibly achieve their ambition, and Cameron now freely admits he thinks achieving this 'ambition' would be catostrophic.
It's simply not an ambition of theirs and clearly never was.
Horrible news from Florida. Guns and lunatics do not mix well. I have no doubt that if we had laxer gun controls we'd have many more shootings.
The worry for continental Europe is that as IS is defeated, militarily-hardened extemists will slip back home to countries where automatic weapons are relatively easily available across land borders. We have some protection because we are an island but you'd hope the boffins are working on some sort of scanning for St Pancras where Eurostar terminates
The Russian hooligans showed how easy it is to get into Europe undetected....
Didn't see them spraying England fans with automatic weapons, but I wasn't paying that much attention....
Semi-automatic. Civilians can't get full automatic weapons even in the US.
When I was in Bratislava in 2008 I got to have a go on an AK47. That certainly had a working full auto mode.
Homeland Security chairman: "It was an Islamist terrorist attack."
Here's a theory. Trump threatens ISIS in every speech... Part of their ideology requires "The Final Conflict" to happen soon.
Do they want Trump to win the election? Any other swing states lined up for a spectacular outrage?
Trump's travel ban policy on Muslims would not have stopped this shooter who was a US citizen
Might have stopped his parents, who were immigrants...
Most Americans are descended from immigrants unless they are American Indians
The right sort of immigrants, though.
I assume you mean "white" because you clearly can't mean "peaceful"
It's not a colour issue for most, I would imagine, but a matter of religion. People are wary of Muslims. And it's not a phobia, because the fear is - in fact - a rational one.
I'm just saying, if I were a native American I'd have a bad view of Christianity
On a completely random unrelated question - does anyone know what the £70(?)k bank deposit guarantee applies to. Is it just savings accounts or does it extend to other financial products - fixed term bonds etc?
One thing to note - the liability is per organisation per person - so if you have accounts with related organisations the £70,000 applies overall.
BTW - since the figure is actually based on Euros, it is likely to be increased to £80,000 pretty soon and no doubt some Remainers are expecting it to increase to £100,000 or more.
So if you want greater cover and you are a Remainer and you believe your doom-laden forecasts - Vote Brexit!
Horrible news from Florida. Guns and lunatics do not mix well. I have no doubt that if we had laxer gun controls we'd have many more shootings.
The worry for continental Europe is that as IS is defeated, militarily-hardened extemists will slip back home to countries where automatic weapons are relatively easily available across land borders. We have some protection because we are an island but you'd hope the boffins are working on some sort of scanning for St Pancras where Eurostar terminates
The Russian hooligans showed how easy it is to get into Europe undetected....
Didn't see them spraying England fans with automatic weapons, but I wasn't paying that much attention....
The most worrying thing about the Panorama documentary on the background to Paris attacks was that there are already cells in Europe who have access to the weaponry.
The Paris attackers phoned up and got them delivered. There was another example of a guy who got arrested because he couldn't go through with it, but it was a similar deal, go here, phone up and car left on such and such a street filled with weaponry / explosives.
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .
"We will: keep our ambition of delivering annual net migration in the tens of thousands, not the hundreds of thousands"
I think saying "maintain" rather than "keep" would have been better. The word keep implies it's a promise. Of course, they were more than happy for the press to report it as a promise.
The word keep may imply it is a promise, but the word two words after that certainly clarifies things.
Regardless, they've clearly broken the promise to act with that as an ambition. There has been no action which could credibly achieve their ambition, and Cameron now freely admits he thinks achieving this 'ambition' would be catostrophic.
It's simply not an ambition of theirs and clearly never was.
Yeah, it was an utterly stupid ambition, I think based off a gaffe in a radio interview wasn't it? (Or am I thinking of some other wonderful government policy.. titters)
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .
"We will: keep our ambition of delivering annual net migration in the tens of thousands, not the hundreds of thousands"
I think saying "maintain" rather than "keep" would have been better. The word keep implies it's a promise. Of course, they were more than happy for the press to report it as a promise.
The word keep may imply it is a promise, but the word two words after that certainly clarifies things.
Whatever, I didn't vote Tory so couldn't care less. That the Tories didn't make this abundantly clear 12 months ago is their own problem and chickens are coming home to roost.
Miss Plato, no, but according to the Honest Trailer on ScreenJunkies, it's, perhaps surprisingly, the highest grossing superhero film of the last 10 years or so.
On a completely random unrelated question - does anyone know what the £70(?)k bank deposit guarantee applies to. Is it just savings accounts or does it extend to other financial products - fixed term bonds etc?
One thing to note - the liability is per organisation per person - so if you have accounts with related organisations the £70,000 applies overall.
BTW - since the figure is actually based on Euros, it is likely to be increased to £80,000 pretty soon and no doubt some Remainers are expecting it to increase to £100,000 or more.
So if you want greater cover and you are a Remainer and you believe your doom-laden forecasts - Vote Brexit!
Surely if we leave the EU we can set the level to be whatever we want? I thought it was convenient that the pound strengthened at just the right time to mean our limit fell from £85k to £75k to prevent our banks from having a competitive advantage.
Horrible news from Florida. Guns and lunatics do not mix well. I have no doubt that if we had laxer gun controls we'd have many more shootings.
The worry for continental Europe is that as IS is defeated, militarily-hardened extemists will slip back home to countries where automatic weapons are relatively easily available across land borders. We have some protection because we are an island but you'd hope the boffins are working on some sort of scanning for St Pancras where Eurostar terminates
The Russian hooligans showed how easy it is to get into Europe undetected....
Didn't see them spraying England fans with automatic weapons, but I wasn't paying that much attention....
If you can get fireworks and flare guns into (a) Europe and (b) the stadium you can also get AK47s and the like in.
Does this really have to be explained in words of one syllable?
I agree the border is porous, but fireworks? You can buy those in shops!
Miss Plato, I forget the precise time frame, but I'm pretty sure it's back to when Iron Man kicked off the current glut. Video's here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qIRtFE6aIc
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
It is unlikely the EU would immediately start a trade war with its major export market. Chances are, however great a Leave win, nothing much will happen in the short term.
Agreed. There will be no trade war. That's not the EU's style. They will simply ignore us. It's what they do with Switzerland who have been in the doghouse for years.
This would be Switzerland, the country with the highest living standard in the world ? I think we would do with a bit more ignoring if that is what happens!
On a completely random unrelated question - does anyone know what the £70(?)k bank deposit guarantee applies to. Is it just savings accounts or does it extend to other financial products - fixed term bonds etc?
One thing to note - the liability is per organisation per person - so if you have accounts with related organisations the £70,000 applies overall.
BTW - since the figure is actually based on Euros, it is likely to be increased to £80,000 pretty soon and no doubt some Remainers are expecting it to increase to £100,000 or more.
So if you want greater cover and you are a Remainer and you believe your doom-laden forecasts - Vote Brexit!
Surely if we leave the EU we can set the level to be whatever we want? I thought it was convenient that the pound strengthened at just the right time to mean our limit fell from £85k to £75k to prevent our banks from having a competitive advantage.
That will be for two years of course - but yes - we could then set it at our own level - assuming the Government repealed or amended the appropriate legislation.
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .
"We will: keep our ambition of delivering annual net migration in the tens of thousands, not the hundreds of thousands"
I think saying "maintain" rather than "keep" would have been better. The word keep implies it's a promise. Of course, they were more than happy for the press to report it as a promise.
The word keep may imply it is a promise, but the word two words after that certainly clarifies things.
Whatever, I didn't vote Tory so couldn't care less. That the Tories didn't make this abundantly clear 12 months ago is their own problem and chickens are coming home to roost.
Cared enough to comment... *innocent face*
I appreciate that politicians don't always tell the voters the full story. For example, Sadiq Khan has limited his promise to freeze ticket prices to monthly and annual season tickets. The public expect that sort of thing, though they may not like it.
However, this business of saying that the policy is just an "ambition" and that the voters voted for it so "what are they complaining about" is contributing to the contempt in which the public hold politicians.
Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?
Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.
Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.
This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.
The shooter may be a Muslim but the victims were largely homosexuals, not exactly Trump's demographic
I suspect that simple demographic arithmetic will not be a good guide to this election. Trump is a master at reframing an issue and you may find that it's some of the least likely groups who will be the ones to switch to him.
Trump is not going to win the gay vote, he opposes gay marriage for starters
If you are targeted for murder because of your sexuality you might be more concerned to have a President who will strive to keep you safe.
Not saying that Trump necessarily is that man. But events sometimes change peoples' priorities.
There is no evidence he will keep you safe, his travel ban on Muslims would not have stopped this shooting, the shooter was a US citizen
As has been mentioned - it would have stopped his parents.
No it would not as it would not have been retrospective, short of interning every Muslim in the US, clearly against the constitution, Trump's policy would not have stopped this shooter
Miss Plato, no, but according to the Honest Trailer on ScreenJunkies, it's, perhaps surprisingly, the highest grossing superhero film of the last 10 years or so.
Wow - 10yrs?!?!
I know what ScreenJunkies said, but they exaggerated.
BoxOfficeMojo rankings to date * 9th biggest Comic Book Adaptation * 9th biggest Superhero Movie * 2nd biggest Superhero Origin Story
"Captain America - Civil War" has already overtaken it.
Mir Seddique, father of gunman Omar Mateen, has said the attack "has nothing to do with religion."
He said his son had recently lost his tempter after seeing a gay couple embracing in Miami, which he say may have led him to carry out the massacre at gay nightclub Pulse.
"He saw two men kissing each other in front of his wife and kid and he got very angry," Mr Seddique said.
Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?
Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.
Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.
This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.
The shooter may be a Muslim but the victims were largely homosexuals, not exactly Trump's demographic
I suspect that simple demographic arithmetic will not be a good guide to this election. Trump is a master at reframing an issue and you may find that it's some of the least likely groups who will be the ones to switch to him.
Trump is not going to win the gay vote, he opposes gay marriage for starters
If you are targeted for murder because of your sexuality you might be more concerned to have a President who will strive to keep you safe.
Not saying that Trump necessarily is that man. But events sometimes change peoples' priorities.
There is no evidence he will keep you safe, his travel ban on Muslims would not have stopped this shooting, the shooter was a US citizen
As has been mentioned - it would have stopped his parents.
No it would not as it would not have been retrospective, short of interning every Muslim in the US, clearly against the constitution, Trump's policy would not have stopped this shooter
They mean if we went back in time and implemented it. Still, stupid idea now, stupid idea then. Proper gun control would be a better approach, but no one wants to touch that with a barge pole.
We seem to trade more successfully with those nations with whom we do not share a Single Market than with those with whom we do. Our trade with non-EU nations is broadly in balance, whereas with EU nations, we have a massive deficit. It's therefore unclear to me what the benefits of the Single Market are to this country, or what there is to fear if we don't form part of it after leaving the EU.
I appreciate that politicians don't always tell the voters the full story. For example, Sadiq Khan has limited his promise to freeze ticket prices to monthly and annual season tickets. The public expect that sort of thing, though they may not like it.
However, this business of saying that the policy is just an "ambition" and that the voters voted for it so "what are they complaining about" is contributing to the contempt in which the public hold politicians.
That's fair. I think it is okay for politicians to lay out the direction of travel, without giving firm promises, but it does have to be carefully worded to make it clear it isn't a commitment.
Mr. Viewcode, to be fair, I remembered incorrectly.
It's the second highest grossing R-rated film ever (apparently only after Passion of the Christ), but did beat quite a lot of the recent superhero films.
So... my mistake, rather than theirs.
Mr. Floater, I wonder why he attacked gays rather than pork butchers, brewers or razorblade salesmen.
Edited extra bit: scratch that. There tend not to be bars dedicated to razorblade salesmen.
Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?
Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.
Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.
This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.
The shooter may be a Muslim but the victims were largely homosexuals, not exactly Trump's demographic
I suspect that simple demographic arithmetic will not be a good guide to this election. Trump is a master at reframing an issue and you may find that it's some of the least likely groups who will be the ones to switch to him.
Trump is not going to win the gay vote, he opposes gay marriage for starters
If you are targeted for murder because of your sexuality you might be more concerned to have a President who will strive to keep you safe.
Not saying that Trump necessarily is that man. But events sometimes change peoples' priorities.
There is no evidence he will keep you safe, his travel ban on Muslims would not have stopped this shooting, the shooter was a US citizen
As has been mentioned - it would have stopped his parents.
No it would not as it would not have been retrospective, short of interning every Muslim in the US, clearly against the constitution, Trump's policy would not have stopped this shooter
They mean if we went back in time and implemented it. Still, stupid idea now, stupid idea then. Proper gun control would be a better approach, but no one wants to touch that with a barge pole.
If a few of those Gay people had had guns then maybe more of them would have lived.
Here is "A Contract between the Conservative Party and you" signed by David Cameron.
I invite you to consider the bold text above his signature on the first page, and the text of the 5th pledge at the top of the second column on the second page. For bonus points see if you can see the word "ambition" anywhere ?
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .
"We will: keep our ambition of delivering annual net migration in the tens of thousands, not the hundreds of thousands"
I think saying "maintain" rather than "keep" would have been better. The word keep implies it's a promise. Of course, they were more than happy for the press to report it as a promise.
The word keep may imply it is a promise, but the word two words after that certainly clarifies things.
Whatever, I didn't vote Tory so couldn't care less. That the Tories didn't make this abundantly clear 12 months ago is their own problem and chickens are coming home to roost.
Cared enough to comment... *innocent face*
I appreciate that politicians don't always tell the voters the full story. For example, Sadiq Khan has limited his promise to freeze ticket prices to monthly and annual season tickets. The public expect that sort of thing, though they may not like it.
No, he excluded season tickets and daily/weekly caps.
That is to say, he excluded probably 90% of commuters.
To say the public don't like it is a significant understatement.
Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?
Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.
Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.
This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.
The shooter may be a Muslim but the victims were largely homosexuals, not exactly Trump's demographic
I suspect that simple demographic arithmetic will not be a good guide to this election. Trump is a master at reframing an issue and you may find that it's some of the least likely groups who will be the ones to switch to him.
Trump is not going to win the gay vote, he opposes gay marriage for starters
If you are targeted for murder because of your sexuality you might be more concerned to have a President who will strive to keep you safe.
Not saying that Trump necessarily is that man. But events sometimes change peoples' priorities.
There is no evidence he will keep you safe, his travel ban on Muslims would not have stopped this shooting, the shooter was a US citizen
As has been mentioned - it would have stopped his parents.
No it would not as it would not have been retrospective, short of interning every Muslim in the US, clearly against the constitution, Trump's policy would not have stopped this shooter
They mean if we went back in time and implemented it. Still, stupid idea now, stupid idea then. Proper gun control would be a better approach, but no one wants to touch that with a barge pole.
If a few of those Gay people had had guns then maybe more of them would have lived.
We seem to trade more successfully with those nations with whom we do not share a Single Market than with those with whom we do. Our trade with non-EU nations is broadly in balance, whereas with EU nations, we have a massive deficit. It's therefore unclear to me what the benefits of the Single Market are to this country, or what there is to fear if we don't form part of it after leaving the EU.
Leave the EU, and reduce the Trade Deficit.
Our trade deficit is the consequence of having one of the lowest savings rates in the world, not our membership of the EU.
kle4- to Brexiters- if we vote remain, we know pretty much what we are going to get. The EU will muddle along with all it's imperfections, the British economy will be relatively stable but still susceptible to global shocks as it was ever thus, London will continue to power ahead.
But with Brexit- there is a strong chance there will be an immediate run on sterling, and a flow of capital out of the UK. A one off shock would be OK- but this is likely to be accompanied by years of political and economic uncertainty which are likely to exacerbate any normal recessionary cycle. And we will be hit by the spectre of inflation- the imported inflation that we faced in the 70's, except poor productivity and recessionary factors will keep wages down.
The EU will have to punish the UK for a Brexit. It cannot afford to let the UK thrive outside, so we'll get the worst trading terms.
If the UK gets poorer- and the scaremongering from remain is proved to be right, who do I blame?
"The EU will have to punish the UK for a Brexit."
And these are the feckers you want us to stay wedded to?
Doesn't work like that. Countries will just become more protectionist to protect their own workers. They can't within the EU but they will when we're outside. It's only what we're planning to do. Keep out EU workers to protect our own
Delay in negotiating access to UK markets will hasten the death of the EU. Their call....
What happens if England play Northern Ireland regarding the national anthems? Would they play it twice?
It confirms the ridiculous notion of having God Save the Queen as the English anthem, England should have Jerusalem and NI Danny Boy, GSTQ should be saved for GB teams at the Olympics and the British Lions and events in the presence of a royal
Jerusalem is out because of its Christian connotations (even though Jesus strolling across the dales does not actually feature in the bible): at least with GSTQ people can fudge which God is being called upon. And Danny Boy is hardly a rousing, up-tempo number; it is even more of a dirge than GSTQ.
Here is "A Contract between the Conservative Party and you" signed by David Cameron.
I invite you to consider the bold text above his signature on the first page, and the text of the 5th pledge at the top of the second column on the second page. For bonus points see if you can see the word "ambition" anywhere ?
Mr. Viewcode, to be fair, I remembered incorrectly.
It's the second highest grossing R-rated film ever (apparently only after Passion of the Christ), but did beat quite a lot of the recent superhero films.
So... my mistake, rather than theirs.
No need to apologise: "Deadpool" wildly overperformed at the box office...
Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?
Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.
Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.
This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.
The shooter may be a Muslim but the victims were largely homosexuals, not exactly Trump's demographic
I suspect that simple demographic arithmetic will not be a good guide to this election. Trump is a master at reframing an issue and you may find that it's some of the least likely groups who will be the ones to switch to him.
Trump is not going to win the gay vote, he opposes gay marriage for starters
If you are targeted for murder because of your sexuality you might be more concerned to have a President who will strive to keep you safe.
Not saying that Trump necessarily is that man. But events sometimes change peoples' priorities.
There is no evidence he will keep you safe, his travel ban on Muslims would not have stopped this shooting, the shooter was a US citizen
As has been mentioned - it would have stopped his parents.
No it would not as it would not have been retrospective, short of interning every Muslim in the US, clearly against the constitution, Trump's policy would not have stopped this shooter
They mean if we went back in time and implemented it. Still, stupid idea now, stupid idea then. Proper gun control would be a better approach, but no one wants to touch that with a barge pole.
If a few of those Gay people had had guns then maybe more of them would have lived.
What a solution!!!
My friend emigrated to California a while ago, he's a very liberal guy.
Saw a man pull a gun on a theif trying to steal from an old lady.
Here is "A Contract between the Conservative Party and you" signed by David Cameron.
I invite you to consider the bold text above his signature on the first page, and the text of the 5th pledge at the top of the second column on the second page. For bonus points see if you can see the word "ambition" anywhere ?
Here is "A Contract between the Conservative Party and you" signed by David Cameron.
I invite you to consider the bold text above his signature on the first page, and the text of the 5th pledge at the top of the second column on the second page. For bonus points see if you can see the word "ambition" anywhere ?
Downgraded to an ambition in the 2015 version I'm guessing it won't appear in 2020!
But but but... its a contract signed by the PM, we are always being told by our Remainer friends that a contracttreaty is for life and not just for Christmas, doesn't this not apply to contracts on immigration as well ?
What does this say about the 'unknown quantities'?
'The senior law enforcement source reports that Mateen became a person of interest in 2013 and again in 2014. The Federal Bureau of Investigation at one point opened an investigation into Mateen but subsequently closed the case when it produced nothing that appeared to warrant further investigation.
Here is "A Contract between the Conservative Party and you" signed by David Cameron.
I invite you to consider the bold text above his signature on the first page, and the text of the 5th pledge at the top of the second column on the second page. For bonus points see if you can see the word "ambition" anywhere ?
Downgraded to an ambition in the 2015 version I'm guessing it won't appear in 2020!
But but but... its a contract signed by the PM, we are always being told by our Remainer friends that a contracttreaty is for life and not just for Christmas, doesn't this not apply to contracts on immigration as well ?
You and I both know manifesto commitments should be treated with caution. Most will be implemented, but obviously un-implementable ones wont!
I appreciate that politicians don't always tell the voters the full story. For example, Sadiq Khan has limited his promise to freeze ticket prices to monthly and annual season tickets. The public expect that sort of thing, though they may not like it.
No, he excluded season tickets and daily/weekly caps.
That is to say, he excluded probably 90% of commuters.
To say the public don't like it is a significant understatement.
Oh, sorry, I only saw the story briefly. It could come back to bite him in 2021.
We seem to trade more successfully with those nations with whom we do not share a Single Market than with those with whom we do. Our trade with non-EU nations is broadly in balance, whereas with EU nations, we have a massive deficit. It's therefore unclear to me what the benefits of the Single Market are to this country, or what there is to fear if we don't form part of it after leaving the EU.
Leave the EU, and reduce the Trade Deficit.
Our trade deficit is the consequence of having one of the lowest savings rates in the world, not our membership of the EU.
But then, why don't we run a trade deficit with Non EU countries?
Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?
Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.
Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.
This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.
The shooter may be a Muslim but the victims were largely homosexuals, not exactly Trump's demographic
I suspect that simple demographic arithmetic will not be a good guide to this election. Trump is a master at reframing an issue and you may find that it's some of the least likely groups who will be the ones to switch to him.
Trump is not going to win the gay vote, he opposes gay marriage for starters
If you are targeted for murder because of your sexuality you might be more concerned to have a President who will strive to keep you safe.
Not saying that Trump necessarily is that man. But events sometimes change peoples' priorities.
There is no evidence he will keep you safe, his travel ban on Muslims would not have stopped this shooting, the shooter was a US citizen
As has been mentioned - it would have stopped his parents.
No it would not as it would not have been retrospective, short of interning every Muslim in the US, clearly against the constitution, Trump's policy would not have stopped this shooter
They mean if we went back in time and implemented it. Still, stupid idea now, stupid idea then. Proper gun control would be a better approach, but no one wants to touch that with a barge pole.
If a few of those Gay people had had guns then maybe more of them would have lived.
What a solution!!!
My friend emigrated to California a while ago, he's a very liberal guy.
Saw a man pull a gun on a theif trying to steal from an old lady.
Now a convert to gun ownership.
I'm sorry, I just think that is a petrol and fire approach.
We seem to trade more successfully with those nations with whom we do not share a Single Market than with those with whom we do. Our trade with non-EU nations is broadly in balance, whereas with EU nations, we have a massive deficit. It's therefore unclear to me what the benefits of the Single Market are to this country, or what there is to fear if we don't form part of it after leaving the EU.
Leave the EU, and reduce the Trade Deficit.
Our trade deficit is the consequence of having one of the lowest savings rates in the world, not our membership of the EU.
In 2015 we had an annual £100bn trade deficit with the EU, a surplus of about £10bn with the rest of the world, and you're saying that a significant reduction in the UK's volume of trade with the EU would not reduce the UK's trade deficit?
Besides that, the existence of that £100bn trade deficit means that German firms will be petrified, because the opportunities lost to export to the UK will be far more than the opportunities gained by German firms as UK exports to Germany are scaled back.
So Schauble's threats are utterly empty. But nonetheless it might be in the UK's interests to insist that he follows through on them.
Unless and until it becomes clear that there was a specific Islamic motive for the attacks in Orlando isn't it better to hold off on the speculation. Yes in the end it is likely that was the case but it is equally possible this was just a very disturbed individual who happened to be Muslim.
This doesn't mean I look any more favourably on Islam. I still pretty much detest it as a concept and a force in the world. But some people will end up looking really dumb if it turns out this bloke had serious mental issues unconnected with his faith.
I'm always inclined to the mentally unstable theory. I don't think well-adjusted people are inclined to mass murder, even Moslems.
Perhaps not but what exactly is mentally unstable? There's been a big argument about whether Anders Brevik is sane. You have suicide bombers with down syndrome. You have to look at the propaganda out there, the financing that goes on which clearly has a religious basis. Was that relevant in this instance? We don't yet know.
This thread demonstrates beyond all doubt that the referendum campaign is a dialogue of the deaf. It's like having 60-odd MalcolmGs all shouting at once. By comparison the AV referendum stimulated a series of high quality debates.
Except it is not "clearly an act of terror". That form of words may be about gun control which one imagines will now be more prominent in the American election. The gun lobby will say terrorists are (or should be) already excluded so there is no call for restrictions on ordinary Americans.
One imagines Hillary will call for gun control and Trump for better screening, so in practice both will really be calling for the same thing: more extensive background checks.
We seem to trade more successfully with those nations with whom we do not share a Single Market than with those with whom we do. Our trade with non-EU nations is broadly in balance, whereas with EU nations, we have a massive deficit. It's therefore unclear to me what the benefits of the Single Market are to this country, or what there is to fear if we don't form part of it after leaving the EU.
Leave the EU, and reduce the Trade Deficit.
Our trade deficit is the consequence of having one of the lowest savings rates in the world, not our membership of the EU.
But then, why don't we run a trade deficit with Non EU countries?
I think you're looking at this the wrong way around.
Let me give you an example. Today the UK imports various petrochemicals products from the Rotterdam refinery complex. If we cut off all trade with the EU tomorrow, we'd still need those products. They'd just be imported from somewhere else in the world.
As a country we don't have an export problem. Our exports as a percentage of GDP are much the same as any other country with 40 to 80 people.
What is higher is our imports.
If you stack all the countries in the world up and on the x axis you put "savings rate", and on the y axis you put "trade deficit", you'd see an almost perfect correlations. Countries with high savings rates (Germany, Switzerland, China) run trade surpluses, irrespective of their trading block. Countries with low savings rates (ourselves, the US, and Spain before the Eurozone crisis) have trade deficits.
Leaving the EU will not - in itself - change our savings rate.
Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?
Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.
Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.
This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.
The shooter may be a Muslim but the victims were largely homosexuals, not exactly Trump's demographic
I suspect that simple demographic arithmetic will not be a good guide to this election. Trump is a master at reframing an issue and you may find that it's some of the least likely groups who will be the ones to switch to him.
Trump is not going to win the gay vote, he opposes gay marriage for starters
If you are targeted for murder because of your sexuality you might be more concerned to have a President who will strive to keep you safe.
Not saying that Trump necessarily is that man. But events sometimes change peoples' priorities.
There is no evidence he will keep you safe, his travel ban on Muslims would not have stopped this shooting, the shooter was a US citizen
As has been mentioned - it would have stopped his parents.
No it would not as it would not have been retrospective, short of interning every Muslim in the US, clearly against the constitution, Trump's policy would not have stopped this shooter
They mean if we went back in time and implemented it. Still, stupid idea now, stupid idea then. Proper gun control would be a better approach, but no one wants to touch that with a barge pole.
Perhaps not but what exactly is mentally unstable? There's been a big argument about whether Anders Brevik is sane. You have suicide bombers with down syndrome. You have to look at the propaganda out there, the financing that goes on which clearly has a religious basis. Was that relevant in this instance? We don't yet know.
Down syndrome bombers are not voluntary. Neither are 'fallen women'. Many ISIS suicide bombers are coerced.
If you are constrained by Political Correctness, normalcy bias & cultural relativism, you will never know.
This thread demonstrates beyond all doubt that the referendum campaign is a dialogue of the deaf. It's like having 60-odd MalcolmGs all shouting at once. By comparison the AV referendum stimulated a series of high quality debates.
Probably because we were missing your condescension. Now we have all been patted on the head we will of course raise the standard of debate....
Thinking about the lessons of last year's General Election, Leave looks in the much better position. We are also, by looking at just voting intention, running the risk of repeating last year's mistakes.
We all looked back at the polls then and said that, while the voting intention question underestimated the Conservatives' chance of a majority, the supplementary proxy questions, such as preferring David Cameron to Ed Miliband as PM, did point to a Conservative victory.
Now look at the answers given to supplementary questions - David Cameron and George Osborne generally are scoring lower than Boris et al in questions on the EU Referendum; respondents answer that Brexit will, in likelihood, lower immigration but there is more uncertainty over the economic risks from Remain, etc etc. On the basis of the GE, that should give Remain a great amount of concern.
What is also interesting is what seems like Remain's sudden increase in concern over the past week and whether it has been driven by insights into the postal vote trends. Cast your mind back to last year's GE - there was a very interesting article in Labour Uncut a few days before the election (http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/) that suggested that Ed Miliband's homage to Russell Brand was driven by panic over initial postal vote estimates. At the time, there was uncertainty whether observers could really work out the tally (the consensus, from those who had experience as observers, was that you could) but, in hindsight, it looked prescient.
I am not posting this as a pro-Brexit point, btw - I just think that Leave looks incredible value given what the data is showing.
An excellent post.
If older voters are more likely to vote by post there could be some sizeable Leave leads building up. This could be what has spooked Remain.
This thread demonstrates beyond all doubt that the referendum campaign is a dialogue of the deaf. It's like having 60-odd MalcolmGs all shouting at once. By comparison the AV referendum stimulated a series of high quality debates.
Nick Clegg was not afraid to get stuck in and make a case (not necessarily a good one) for remaining in the EU. Haven't seen much of your new leader Michael Fallon.
We seem to trade more successfully with those nations with whom we do not share a Single Market than with those with whom we do. Our trade with non-EU nations is broadly in balance, whereas with EU nations, we have a massive deficit. It's therefore unclear to me what the benefits of the Single Market are to this country, or what there is to fear if we don't form part of it after leaving the EU.
Leave the EU, and reduce the Trade Deficit.
Our trade deficit is the consequence of having one of the lowest savings rates in the world, not our membership of the EU.
In 2015 we had an annual £100bn trade deficit with the EU, a surplus of about £10bn with the rest of the world, and you're saying that a significant reduction in the UK's volume of trade with the EU would not reduce the UK's trade deficit?
Besides that, the existence of that £100bn trade deficit means that German firms will be petrified, because the opportunities lost to export to the UK will be far more than the opportunities gained by German firms as UK exports to Germany are scaled back.
So Schauble's threats are utterly empty. But nonetheless it might be in the UK's interests to insist that he follows through on them.
We seem to trade more successfully with those nations with whom we do not share a Single Market than with those with whom we do. Our trade with non-EU nations is broadly in balance, whereas with EU nations, we have a massive deficit. It's therefore unclear to me what the benefits of the Single Market are to this country, or what there is to fear if we don't form part of it after leaving the EU.
Leave the EU, and reduce the Trade Deficit.
Our trade deficit is the consequence of having one of the lowest savings rates in the world, not our membership of the EU.
In 2015 we had an annual £100bn trade deficit with the EU, a surplus of about £10bn with the rest of the world, and you're saying that a significant reduction in the UK's volume of trade with the EU would not reduce the UK's trade deficit?
Besides that, the existence of that £100bn trade deficit means that German firms will be petrified, because the opportunities lost to export to the UK will be far more than the opportunities gained by German firms as UK exports to Germany are scaled back.
So Schauble's threats are utterly empty. But nonetheless it might be in the UK's interests to insist that he follows through on them.
You do know that British firms that export to the US and China have components in their products that are imported from Germany, Italy and the rest of the EU, right?
Global supply chains are incredibly complex. Let me give you an example of a project I was recently involved in. This was part of the solar battery stuff I've regaled many PBers with before: the company was British, final assembly was in France, solar panels came from a German module maker using US cells, batteries came from China, and battery management boards came from Wales. And design was in the UK. That project will have added to the UK balance of trade deficit with the EU, and added to its surplus with the rest of the world.
Why would we want to f*ck ourselves in some game of brinkmanship? Post Brexit there will be no tariffs on physical goods between the EU/EEA and the UK. It's simply inconceivable, and would be disastrous for British companies and workers.
This thread demonstrates beyond all doubt that the referendum campaign is a dialogue of the deaf. It's like having 60-odd MalcolmGs all shouting at once. By comparison the AV referendum stimulated a series of high quality debates.
Probably because we were missing your condescension. Now we have all been patted on the head we will of course raise the standard of debate....
Good to see the LibDems bringing something to this debate though....
We seem to trade more successfully with those nations with whom we do not share a Single Market than with those with whom we do. Our trade with non-EU nations is broadly in balance, whereas with EU nations, we have a massive deficit. It's therefore unclear to me what the benefits of the Single Market are to this country, or what there is to fear if we don't form part of it after leaving the EU.
Leave the EU, and reduce the Trade Deficit.
Our trade deficit is the consequence of having one of the lowest savings rates in the world, not our membership of the EU.
In 2015 we had an annual £100bn trade deficit with the EU, a surplus of about £10bn with the rest of the world, and you're saying that a significant reduction in the UK's volume of trade with the EU would not reduce the UK's trade deficit?
Besides that, the existence of that £100bn trade deficit means that German firms will be petrified, because the opportunities lost to export to the UK will be far more than the opportunities gained by German firms as UK exports to Germany are scaled back.
So Schauble's threats are utterly empty. But nonetheless it might be in the UK's interests to insist that he follows through on them.
You do know that British firms that export to the US and China have components in their products that are imported from Germany, Italy and the rest of the EU, right?
Global supply chains are incredibly complex. Let me give you an example of a project I was recently involved in. This was part of the solar battery stuff I've regaled many PBers with before: the company was British, final assembly was in France, solar panels came from a German module maker using US cells, batteries came from China, and battery management boards came from Wales. And design was in the UK. That project will have added to the UK balance of trade deficit with the EU, and added to its surplus with the rest of the world.
Why would we want to f*ck ourselves in some game of brinkmanship? Post Brexit there will be no tariffs on physical goods between the EU/EEA and the UK. It's simply inconceivable, and would be disastrous for British companies and workers.
Agreed. My view is that there is little understand of tariffs even amongst actual exporters and importers, let alone politicians.
This thread demonstrates beyond all doubt that the referendum campaign is a dialogue of the deaf. It's like having 60-odd MalcolmGs all shouting at once. By comparison the AV referendum stimulated a series of high quality debates.
Nick Clegg was not afraid to get stuck in and make a case (not necessarily a good one) for remaining in the EU. Haven't seen much of your new leader Michael Fallon.
Must be really hard balancing that SoS job with leading a minor party....
Comments
To be clear I am talking about the campaigns themselves, not the choices, which are reasonable ones.
Thats dishonest in my book
You wanna trade well pay up and we will look, after you ( that's a laugh as well). If you don't pay we will send the boys round and smash your windows in. Oh and for good measure we have on the payroll that guy that supplies you from the next town who says you will be at the back of the queue for any deliveries and well charge you 3 times as much if you refuse.
Yeah great club to belong to.
I think saying "maintain" rather than "keep" would have been better. The word keep implies it's a promise. Of course, they were more than happy for the press to report it as a promise.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/david-camerons-brexit-threat-pensioners-new-low/
When will we wake up?
The centre might not be where he thinks it is.
Does this really have to be explained in words of one syllable?
Your other points (although we have rehearsed this many times): despite my assumption of great pragmatism by rEU if we leave, I am not sure it they would accept us as an EEA membership. Looking at the emergency brake, for example, it is frought with problems a) to use permanently; and b) to apply it to the UK.
At ever stage (every three months) they would be looking for reasons for us to stop using it. That is not the situation of a grown up country.
I am also cautious about the length that WTO discussions take - if you think dealing with 27 countries is tricky..
Semi-automatic. Civilians can't get full automatic weapons even in the US.
I will get my coat.....
It's simply not an ambition of theirs and clearly never was.
That certainly had a working full auto mode.
BTW - since the figure is actually based on Euros, it is likely to be increased to £80,000 pretty soon and no doubt some Remainers are expecting it to increase to £100,000 or more.
So if you want greater cover and you are a Remainer and you believe your doom-laden forecasts - Vote Brexit!
The Paris attackers phoned up and got them delivered. There was another example of a guy who got arrested because he couldn't go through with it, but it was a similar deal, go here, phone up and car left on such and such a street filled with weaponry / explosives.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biAVdBLbZJM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qIRtFE6aIc
However, this business of saying that the policy is just an "ambition" and that the voters voted for it so "what are they complaining about" is contributing to the contempt in which the public hold politicians.
BoxOfficeMojo rankings to date
* 9th biggest Comic Book Adaptation
* 9th biggest Superhero Movie
* 2nd biggest Superhero Origin Story
"Captain America - Civil War" has already overtaken it.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=deadpool2016.htm
He said his son had recently lost his tempter after seeing a gay couple embracing in Miami, which he say may have led him to carry out the massacre at gay nightclub Pulse.
"He saw two men kissing each other in front of his wife and kid and he got very angry," Mr Seddique said.
Nothing to see here, move along.
Leave the EU, and reduce the Trade Deficit.
It's the second highest grossing R-rated film ever (apparently only after Passion of the Christ), but did beat quite a lot of the recent superhero films.
So... my mistake, rather than theirs.
Mr. Floater, I wonder why he attacked gays rather than pork butchers, brewers or razorblade salesmen.
Edited extra bit: scratch that. There tend not to be bars dedicated to razorblade salesmen.
I invite you to consider the bold text above his signature on the first page, and the text of the 5th pledge at the top of the second column on the second page. For bonus points see if you can see the word "ambition" anywhere ?
http://i.imgur.com/E4zbZPv.jpg (Page 1)
http://i.imgur.com/Yrk0Uqo.jpg (Page 2)
That is to say, he excluded probably 90% of commuters.
To say the public don't like it is a significant understatement.
Saw a man pull a gun on a theif trying to steal from an old lady.
Now a convert to gun ownership.
'The senior law enforcement source reports that Mateen became a person of interest in 2013 and again in 2014. The Federal Bureau of Investigation at one point opened an investigation into Mateen but subsequently closed the case when it produced nothing that appeared to warrant further investigation.
“He’s a known quantity,” the source said. “He’s been on the radar before.”'
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/12/omar-mateen-id-d-as-orlando-killer.html
Besides that, the existence of that £100bn trade deficit means that German firms will be petrified, because the opportunities lost to export to the UK will be far more than the opportunities gained by German firms as UK exports to Germany are scaled back.
So Schauble's threats are utterly empty. But nonetheless it might be in the UK's interests to insist that he follows through on them.
By comparison the AV referendum stimulated a series of high quality debates.
One imagines Hillary will call for gun control and Trump for better screening, so in practice both will really be calling for the same thing: more extensive background checks.
Let me give you an example. Today the UK imports various petrochemicals products from the Rotterdam refinery complex. If we cut off all trade with the EU tomorrow, we'd still need those products. They'd just be imported from somewhere else in the world.
As a country we don't have an export problem. Our exports as a percentage of GDP are much the same as any other country with 40 to 80 people.
What is higher is our imports.
If you stack all the countries in the world up and on the x axis you put "savings rate", and on the y axis you put "trade deficit", you'd see an almost perfect correlations. Countries with high savings rates (Germany, Switzerland, China) run trade surpluses, irrespective of their trading block. Countries with low savings rates (ourselves, the US, and Spain before the Eurozone crisis) have trade deficits.
Leaving the EU will not - in itself - change our savings rate.
If you are constrained by Political Correctness, normalcy bias & cultural relativism, you will never know.
If older voters are more likely to vote by post there could be some sizeable Leave leads building up. This could be what has spooked Remain.
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx
Global supply chains are incredibly complex. Let me give you an example of a project I was recently involved in. This was part of the solar battery stuff I've regaled many PBers with before: the company was British, final assembly was in France, solar panels came from a German module maker using US cells, batteries came from China, and battery management boards came from Wales. And design was in the UK. That project will have added to the UK balance of trade deficit with the EU, and added to its surplus with the rest of the world.
Why would we want to f*ck ourselves in some game of brinkmanship? Post Brexit there will be no tariffs on physical goods between the EU/EEA and the UK. It's simply inconceivable, and would be disastrous for British companies and workers.
Watch the full interview with former defence secretary @LiamFoxMP #Murnaghan https://t.co/5Li6NqO7ql
:-)
Watch .@patel4witham says the remain campaign strategy involves "terrifying people" #Murnaghan https://t.co/XFBGcAlLUD