Question does the net contribution figure we talk about include tariffs the EU places and keeps on our imports?
No. Our net tariffs to the EU if we were on WTO rules would be £4.6 billion.
We would levy approximately £8.9 billion on them.
Thats another £82 million a week net on top of the £350 million we save on fees.Also the government dosent pay the tariffs to the EU buyers do so the government takes the full £171 million a week.
So £350 million a week was wrong - its over £500 million a week
Starting to look like a no brainer
There is what I believe is another £2 billion a year going out of the International Aid budget to the European Commission. This isn't included in our 'fees' as Remain supporting outlets are careful to call them, but would have probably been included in the original 'pink book' figure used by Vote Leave. I wouldn't be surprised if there's additional money flowing to the EU from other departmental budgets too.
Have you pinged the Leave campaign with that?
No. Thought about it but wouldn't know who best to contact. It would also require a FOI request - the last report that gives a breakdown of 'Multilateral Overseas Development Aid' by organisation was in 2013. The 2014 report doesn't show this breakdown, at least not in a format that I can decipher.
Well, even the 2013 numbers would be useful. As for who to contact, not sure. Twitter seems like a good place, but then you might just end up with the PR intern in charge of the twitter account.
If you've got workings to back it up, you can find my gmail on my blog.
I can then email a friend who has got my numbers into the campaign.
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .
I was being polite to Leave, which is possibly the most dishonest political campaign I have been subjected to. More so than the Yes Scotland campaign in 2014, which itself was a dodgy affair.
To be clear I am talking about the campaigns themselves, not the choices, which are reasonable ones.
The Remain campaign is far more dishonest than the Leave campaign (though that is rather like grading the quality of dogsh!t)
Where is the specific dishonesty in the Remain campaign? The charge against the remain campaign is that they are magnifying risks and talking up supposedly worst case scenarios. But that is not dishonesty per se.
It is exactly the same charge as that against the Leave campaign. You just call one exaggerations and the other lies. The whole Remain campaign is based on a basic lie that a vote for Remain is a vote for the status quo. It isn't and they know it. Then there are all the lies about Cameron's renegotiation. And the lies about the EEA options and what they would mean. Basically the whole Remain campaign is one big pack of lies.
A very good question and aside from brands which could, quite easily, be substituted by home produced products or manafactures from elsewhere I am struggling. There must be more but there are only two things I can think of Port and Brandy. Neither of which I would class as strategic necessities but I cannot think of a replacement product that is produced outside of the EU.
I would consider Port and Brandy, and even more Rioja, as strategic necessities.
Brandy has a bit of a metallic taste to me. Scotch is the far superior after dinner drink. Port I can take or leave, but I'm with you on Rioja. Worst comes to worst, we'd have to take that 4% rise on the chin.
A very good question and aside from brands which could, quite easily, be substituted by home produced products or manafactures from elsewhere I am struggling. There must be more but there are only two things I can think of Port and Brandy. Neither of which I would class as strategic necessities but I cannot think of a replacement product that is produced outside of the EU.
I would consider Port and Brandy, and even more Rioja, as strategic necessities.
Brandy has a bit of a metallic taste to me. Scotch is the far superior after dinner drink. Port I can take or leave, but I'm with you on Rioja. Worst comes to worst, we'd have to take that 4% rise on the chin.
Rioja is indeed important but if there was a risk that the French would stop selling us Chablis I would have to reconsider. And some of their cheeses come to that.
I really don't get why Remain focus on completely irrelevant things like London house prices and interest rates when they can claim a threat to our true essentials.
May I respectfully suggest that you experiment a bit more, Mr. L. For example what ever class of French cheese you desire there is likely now to be a UK cheese, that is equal or probably better and which is probably cheaper or at least better value for money.
The same applies to wines. Its is years and years since I have bought a French wine (except whilst in France where it is difficult to buy anything else). Far better value is to be had from the New World, Australia/NZ and, in certain categories, the UK.
British coal mines closed down because they were uncompetitive. It would cost around $220/tonnes to commercially mine coal in the UK.
...and it would have to be open-cast. We just don't have the culture that would allow family members to become miners anymore. Generation Snowflake would not cope in a community where blue scars, missing fingers and toes, and coughing yourself to death in your 30s/40s/50s are the norm, not the exception. Miners were known as hard bastards for good reason.
There was nothing my greatgrandfather, a miner, wanted more than the knowledge his descendants wouldn't have to join him.
I grew up in the South Staffs coalfield. It was really dark down there .
Joking aside, an absolutely standard line from any of the miners was "No kid of mine is going down the fookin' pit". Not many made it past 60. Just a shitty, shitty job.
My Dad was the same about the steel industry. Had he lived, I think he'd have been pleased that at least two of his kids made it to uni.
The football hooligans are not helping the Leave cause because it reminds us of the Little England mentality. In this area, leafy South Western market town, Leave seem to be ahead but with lots of undecideds who may be influenced by the economic argument.Cameron played dirty but effective today with his reminder about the possible loss of the triple lock on pensions.Lots of pensioners may now regret their hastily returned postal vote.I'm voting to Remain in the EU but I fit the expected demographic for doing so. It all seems so close and Gibraltar may hold the trump card.
Gibraltar is about the same size as Falmouth, Cornwall, and barely half the size of Kidderminster.
It will not swing the vote.
Agree. Plus the vote from here is entirely predicable so can be factored in easily.. 20,000 for REMAIN 8 for Leave, or 7 if I am busy.
Which is funny when you think about it - because it is more likely the LEAVERS who would care what happens to Gibraltar. To The Remainers- -Gibraltar's fate is sealed - it will be eventually handed over to Spain in the interests of European Harmony.
Only the British Foreign Office thinks you increase your influence by surrendering power.
The football hooligans are not helping the Leave cause because it reminds us of the Little England mentality. In this area, leafy South Western market town, Leave seem to be ahead but with lots of undecideds who may be influenced by the economic argument.Cameron played dirty but effective today with his reminder about the possible loss of the triple lock on pensions.Lots of pensioners may now regret their hastily returned postal vote.I'm voting to Remain in the EU but I fit the expected demographic for doing so. It all seems so close and Gibraltar may hold the trump card.
Gibraltar is about the same size as Falmouth, Cornwall, and barely half the size of Kidderminster.
It will not swing the vote.
Agree. Plus the vote from here is entirely predicable so can be factored in easily.. 20,000 for REMAIN 8 for Leave, or 7 if I am busy.
Which is funny when you think about it - because it is more likely the LEAVERS who would care what happens to Gibraltar. To The Remainers- -Gibraltar's fate is sealed - it will be eventually handed over to Spain in the interests of European Harmony.
Only the British Foreign Office thinks you increase your influence by surrendering power.
Question does the net contribution figure we talk about include tariffs the EU places and keeps on our imports?
No. Our net tariffs to the EU if we were on WTO rules would be £4.6 billion.
We would levy approximately £8.9 billion on them.
Thats another £82 million a week net on top of the £350 million we save on fees.Also the government dosent pay the tariffs to the EU buyers do so the government takes the full £171 million a week.
So £350 million a week was wrong - its over £500 million a week
Starting to look like a no brainer
In practice we just use the threat of imposing tariffs to get them not to do the same.
Tariffs are imposed on us. If the UK govt imposes a tariff, UK citizens will pay for it in more expensive goods.
Yes. It still amounts to a shin kicking exercise in which they have more to lose.
If they kick our shins twice and we kick their shins three times...we have still had our shins kicked twice.
Trade wars are bad for both sides. Nobody wins, there are different degrees of losing.
Yes. They know that. The French, Belgians and Spanish are stupid. The rest not so much.
My older daughter's mother is a bit of a bellwether for elections. She nearly always votes on the winning side. She's a soft centre liberal with some Tory tendencies, but also voted Blair several times.
She's been havering over the euroref and has flirted, conspicuously, with LEAVE. At heart she is a LEAVER, as she says herself.
But today over a very pleasant Father's Day lunch she confessed she would vote REMAIN, despite her yearning to quit. Project Fear has worked, she feels she just can't take the risk.
I suspect this will be the case for millions. I stand by my Nojam predix of
REMAIN 56 LEAVE 44
Depressing. How many will bottle it in the polling booth?
No amount of REMAIN scaremongering and propaganda is gonna change my vote for LEAVE!
My older daughter's mother is a bit of a bellwether for elections. She nearly always votes on the winning side. She's a soft centre liberal with some Tory tendencies, but also voted Blair several times.
She's been havering over the euroref and has flirted, conspicuously, with LEAVE. At heart she is a LEAVER, as she says herself.
But today over a very pleasant Father's Day lunch she confessed she would vote REMAIN, despite her yearning to quit. Project Fear has worked, she feels she just can't take the risk.
I suspect this will be the case for millions. I stand by my Nojam predix of
REMAIN 56 LEAVE 44
You do know that father's day is next Sunday, right?
Or are you getting your anecdotes in early.
Is it? OK. Hah. Then I'm away next Sunday and I guess we had a special one, for me, without my even realising.
The football hooligans are not helping the Leave cause because it reminds us of the Little England mentality. In this area, leafy South Western market town, Leave seem to be ahead but with lots of undecideds who may be influenced by the economic argument.Cameron played dirty but effective today with his reminder about the possible loss of the triple lock on pensions.Lots of pensioners may now regret their hastily returned postal vote.I'm voting to Remain in the EU but I fit the expected demographic for doing so. It all seems so close and Gibraltar may hold the trump card.
Gibraltar is about the same size as Falmouth, Cornwall, and barely half the size of Kidderminster.
It will not swing the vote.
Agree. Plus the vote from here is entirely predicable so can be factored in easily.. 20,000 for REMAIN 8 for Leave, or 7 if I am busy.
My older daughter's mother is a bit of a bellwether for elections. She nearly always votes on the winning side. She's a soft centre liberal with some Tory tendencies, but also voted Blair several times.
She's been havering over the euroref and has flirted, conspicuously, with LEAVE. At heart she is a LEAVER, as she says herself.
But today over a very pleasant Father's Day lunch she confessed she would vote REMAIN, despite her yearning to quit. Project Fear has worked, she feels she just can't take the risk.
I suspect this will be the case for millions. I stand by my Nojam predix of
REMAIN 56 LEAVE 44
You do know that father's day is next Sunday, right?
Or are you getting your anecdotes in early.
Is it? OK. Hah. Then I'm away next Sunday and I guess we had a special one, for me, without my even realising.
I believe it's Fathers' Day today in the USA.
Also June 19th! I think Fathers day is (edit: more) standardised, while Mothers day isn't.
Edit2: A quick look at wikipedia told me I am totally wrong. ho-hum.
The football hooligans are not helping the Leave cause because it reminds us of the Little England mentality. In this area, leafy South Western market town, Leave seem to be ahead but with lots of undecideds who may be influenced by the economic argument.Cameron played dirty but effective today with his reminder about the possible loss of the triple lock on pensions.Lots of pensioners may now regret their hastily returned postal vote.I'm voting to Remain in the EU but I fit the expected demographic for doing so. It all seems so close and Gibraltar may hold the trump card.
Russian, French, Dutch and German hooligans are really not the fault of Leave.
Whether or not the EU are worried about the UK leaving, I am still scratching my head over why Mr Cameron never took into account the possibility we might vote to leave.
I've just finished "Path to War", about Johnson's entanglement on Vietnam (see here). Every step seems rational, every disadvantage downplayed...and four years later, you have 57K GIs dead per month.
A very good question and aside from brands which could, quite easily, be substituted by home produced products or manafactures from elsewhere I am struggling. There must be more but there are only two things I can think of Port and Brandy. Neither of which I would class as strategic necessities but I cannot think of a replacement product that is produced outside of the EU.
I would consider Port and Brandy, and even more Rioja, as strategic necessities.
Brandy has a bit of a metallic taste to me. Scotch is the far superior after dinner drink. Port I can take or leave, but I'm with you on Rioja. Worst comes to worst, we'd have to take that 4% rise on the chin.
A very good question and aside from brands which could, quite easily, be substituted by home produced products or manafactures from elsewhere I am struggling. There must be more but there are only two things I can think of Port and Brandy. Neither of which I would class as strategic necessities but I cannot think of a replacement product that is produced outside of the EU.
I would consider Port and Brandy, and even more Rioja, as strategic necessities.
Brandy has a bit of a metallic taste to me. Scotch is the far superior after dinner drink. Port I can take or leave, but I'm with you on Rioja. Worst comes to worst, we'd have to take that 4% rise on the chin.
Rioja is indeed important but if there was a risk that the French would stop selling us Chablis I would have to reconsider. And some of their cheeses come to that.
I really don't get why Remain focus on completely irrelevant things like London house prices and interest rates when they can claim a threat to our true essentials.
May I respectfully suggest that you experiment a bit more, Mr. L. For example what ever class of French cheese you desire there is likely now to be a UK cheese, that is equal or probably better and which is probably cheaper or at least better value for money.
The same applies to wines. Its is years and years since I have bought a French wine (except whilst in France where it is difficult to buy anything else). Far better value is to be had from the New World, Australia/NZ and, in certain categories, the UK.
We went through a phase of drinking a lot of new world wines and also South African wines, especially reds. Still like them but more and more we find ourselves going back to France. I think they have lifted their game in response to the new world challenge giving better consistency.
My favourite cheese of the moment is montagnolo, a German cheese which tastes like a camembert version of cambozola. If you haven't tried it do.
The football hooligans are not helping the Leave cause because it reminds us of the Little England mentality. In this area, leafy South Western market town, Leave seem to be ahead but with lots of undecideds who may be influenced by the economic argument.Cameron played dirty but effective today with his reminder about the possible loss of the triple lock on pensions.Lots of pensioners may now regret their hastily returned postal vote.I'm voting to Remain in the EU but I fit the expected demographic for doing so. It all seems so close and Gibraltar may hold the trump card.
Gibraltar is about the same size as Falmouth, Cornwall, and barely half the size of Kidderminster.
It will not swing the vote.
Agree. Plus the vote from here is entirely predicable so can be factored in easily.. 20,000 for REMAIN 8 for Leave, or 7 if I am busy.
You got 8 votes Geoff???
PB Tories get at least 8 ballot papers at all elections.
The whole Remain campaign is based on a basic lie that a vote for Remain is a vote for the status quo. It isn't and they know it.
You'd have to be particularly pedantic to interpret status quo to mean that nothing will ever change for evermore. It's not dishonest to present Remain as the 'steady as she goes' choice.
The football hooligans are not helping the Leave cause because it reminds us of the Little England mentality. In this area, leafy South Western market town, Leave seem to be ahead but with lots of undecideds who may be influenced by the economic argument.Cameron played dirty but effective today with his reminder about the possible loss of the triple lock on pensions.Lots of pensioners may now regret their hastily returned postal vote.I'm voting to Remain in the EU but I fit the expected demographic for doing so. It all seems so close and Gibraltar may hold the trump card.
Gibraltar is about the same size as Falmouth, Cornwall, and barely half the size of Kidderminster.
It will not swing the vote.
Agree. Plus the vote from here is entirely predicable so can be factored in easily.. 20,000 for REMAIN 8 for Leave, or 7 if I am busy.
Which is funny when you think about it - because it is more likely the LEAVERS who would care what happens to Gibraltar. To The Remainers- -Gibraltar's fate is sealed - it will be eventually handed over to Spain in the interests of European Harmony.
Now that is a prospect that never occurred to me. Thank you.
I am bothered about Gibraltar. But I have concluded that leaving the EU is the right thing for the UK to do, and we must just do the best we can with the consequences that arise.
Question does the net contribution figure we talk about include tariffs the EU places and keeps on our imports?
No. Our net tariffs to the EU if we were on WTO rules would be £4.6 billion.
We would levy approximately £8.9 billion on them.
Thats another £82 million a week net on top of the £350 million we save on fees.Also the government dosent pay the tariffs to the EU buyers do so the government takes the full £171 million a week.
So £350 million a week was wrong - its over £500 million a week
Starting to look like a no brainer
There is what I believe is another £2 billion a year going out of the International Aid budget to the European Commission. This isn't included in our 'fees' as Remain supporting outlets are careful to call them, but would have probably been included in the original 'pink book' figure used by Vote Leave. I wouldn't be surprised if there's additional money flowing to the EU from other departmental budgets too.
Have you pinged the Leave campaign with that?
No. Thought about it but wouldn't know who best to contact. It would also require a FOI request - the last report that gives a breakdown of 'Multilateral Overseas Development Aid' by organisation was in 2013. The 2014 report doesn't show this breakdown, at least not in a format that I can decipher.
Well, even the 2013 numbers would be useful. As for who to contact, not sure. Twitter seems like a good place, but then you might just end up with the PR intern in charge of the twitter account.
I don't have a personal twitter account. 2013 numbers are here: (1st document, just search for European Commission)
What's interesting is that this is in the 'Multilateral Aid Review' (downloadable on the same page)
'MAR score of adequate or poor and on average “some” rating: as discussed, these organisations are important to development objectives and to wider UK strategic interests. All have made some progress against their UK reform priorities, but below the level that we were looking for. Given their importance to the UK, DFID is continuing to fund all of these organisations, with an increasing emphasis on the need for progress on reform objectives.
******The European Commission budget is fixed under international agreements.*****
Funding to the other organisations in this group will remain at or below 2010 levels, meaning that the real value of UK contributions will continue to fall.' (emphasis mine)
-So there's one of two possibilities. Either the current 'what the EU costs Britain' figures do include a proportion of the DFID budget (which I haven't heard of them doing, but happy to be corrected), OR a fixed and growing proportion of the DFID budget is remitted to the European Commission, which is concealed from the public, despite it not being a good provider of aid.
The football hooligans are not helping the Leave cause because it reminds us of the Little England mentality. In this area, leafy South Western market town, Leave seem to be ahead but with lots of undecideds who may be influenced by the economic argument.Cameron played dirty but effective today with his reminder about the possible loss of the triple lock on pensions.Lots of pensioners may now regret their hastily returned postal vote.I'm voting to Remain in the EU but I fit the expected demographic for doing so. It all seems so close and Gibraltar may hold the trump card.
Gibraltar is about the same size as Falmouth, Cornwall, and barely half the size of Kidderminster.
It will not swing the vote.
Agree. Plus the vote from here is entirely predicable so can be factored in easily.. 20,000 for REMAIN 8 for Leave, or 7 if I am busy.
You got 8 votes Geoff???
Yes! When postal votes are outlawed, only outlaws will have postal votes.
British coal mines closed down because they were uncompetitive. It would cost around $220/tonnes to commercially mine coal in the UK.
...and it would have to be open-cast. We just don't have the culture that would allow family members to become miners anymore. Generation Snowflake would not cope in a community where blue scars, missing fingers and toes, and coughing yourself to death in your 30s/40s/50s are the norm, not the exception. Miners were known as hard bastards for good reason.
There was nothing my greatgrandfather, a miner, wanted more than the knowledge his descendants wouldn't have to join him.
Well they didn't half kick up a fuss when Thatcher tried to close a few mines (Much less than Wilson did too)
I presume Top Gear is cracking this week as nobody is moaning...makes comment, runs out the door....
Not watching. Wouldn't know.
Oh so its not just me then ;-)
Was away travelling and watched a rerun of the three of them building extended limos and taking 3 stars to the Brit awards in them through the centre of London. It was just hilarious from start to finish and I'm afraid chris Evans and co ain't never ever going to get anyway near that.
The best way to reduce immigration is to improve the economic prospects of the countries from where the immigrants come. That is the proper use of the International Aid budget.
No it isn't. That would be the proper use of trade policy but the EU seems to enjoy picking on developed countries.
Not so positive today - Remain were actually ahead. I had my first 'unpleasant' doorstep experiences, both men in their 30s/40s. I think Leave will struggle with middle-class families with young children.
disappointing, what did they say? Is project fear working? Chin up just a few more days to og we can do this. Yes we can!
I presume Top Gear is cracking this week as nobody is moaning...makes comment, runs out the door....
No-one is watching.
I watched Top Gear once several years ago when I was a guest for a Christmas meal at a friend's house.
ye gods!
P/S can anybody tell me if there is a way to stop Microsoft from constantly popping up a sign offering me a free Windows 10 (apart from doing it of course)?
The whole Remain campaign is based on a basic lie that a vote for Remain is a vote for the status quo. It isn't and they know it.
You'd have to be particularly pedantic to interpret status quo to mean that nothing will ever change for evermore. It's not dishonest to present Remain as the 'steady as she goes' choice.
It is wholly dishonest. Predictability of outcome is surely actually slightly better under Brexit, as the UK Government will have more control.
The football hooligans are not helping the Leave cause because it reminds us of the Little England mentality. In this area, leafy South Western market town, Leave seem to be ahead but with lots of undecideds who may be influenced by the economic argument.Cameron played dirty but effective today with his reminder about the possible loss of the triple lock on pensions.Lots of pensioners may now regret their hastily returned postal vote.I'm voting to Remain in the EU but I fit the expected demographic for doing so. It all seems so close and Gibraltar may hold the trump card.
Gibraltar is about the same size as Falmouth, Cornwall, and barely half the size of Kidderminster.
It will not swing the vote.
Agree. Plus the vote from here is entirely predicable so can be factored in easily.. 20,000 for REMAIN 8 for Leave, or 7 if I am busy.
Which is funny when you think about it - because it is more likely the LEAVERS who would care what happens to Gibraltar. To The Remainers- -Gibraltar's fate is sealed - it will be eventually handed over to Spain in the interests of European Harmony.
Now that is a prospect that never occurred to me. Thank you.
I am bothered about Gibraltar. But I have concluded that leaving the EU is the right thing for the UK to do, and we must just do the best we can with the consequences that arise.
Exactly my view; I'm still voting Leave despite living at the very dangerous pointy end of this result.
I presume Top Gear is cracking this week as nobody is moaning...makes comment, runs out the door....
No-one is watching.
I watched it once several years ago when I was a guest for a Christmas meal at a friend's house.
ye gods!
P/S can anybody tell me if there is a way to stop Microsoft from constantly popping up a sign offering me a free Windows 10 (apart from doing it of course)?
There are a bunch of updates you have to uninstall. Google "stop windows 10 update" or something similar, I'm sure there'll be loads of hits!
If Brexit would lead to the economic Armageddon so confidently predicted by Tyson, wouldn't that in itself be enough to discourage any other member states from following suit? Why would our EU friends feel the need to inflict a punishment beating as well?
My older daughter's mother is a bit of a bellwether for elections. She nearly always votes on the winning side. She's a soft centre liberal with some Tory tendencies, but also voted Blair several times.
She's been havering over the euroref and has flirted, conspicuously, with LEAVE. At heart she is a LEAVER, as she says herself.
But today over a very pleasant Father's Day lunch she confessed she would vote REMAIN, despite her yearning to quit. Project Fear has worked, she feels she just can't take the risk.
I suspect this will be the case for millions. I stand by my Nojam predix of
REMAIN 56 LEAVE 44
You do know that father's day is next Sunday, right?
Or are you getting your anecdotes in early.
I was getting a bit worried there that we had got the wrong date for Father's day...
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .
I was being polite to Leave, which is possibly the most dishonest political campaign I have been subjected to. More so than the Yes Scotland campaign in 2014, which itself was a dodgy affair.
To be clear I am talking about the campaigns themselves, not the choices, which are reasonable ones.
The Remain campaign is far more dishonest than the Leave campaign (though that is rather like grading the quality of dogsh!t)
Where is the specific dishonesty in the Remain campaign? The charge against the remain campaign is that they are magnifying risks and talking up supposedly worst case scenarios. But that is not dishonesty per se.
It is exactly the same charge as that against the Leave campaign. You just call one exaggerations and the other lies. The whole Remain campaign is based on a basic lie that a vote for Remain is a vote for the status quo. It isn't and they know it. Then there are all the lies about Cameron's renegotiation. And the lies about the EEA options and what they would mean. Basically the whole Remain campaign is one big pack of lies.
Out of interest, what lies did the Remain campaign make about the EEA options and what they would mean.?
The football hooligans are not helping the Leave cause because it reminds us of the Little England mentality. In this area, leafy South Western market town, Leave seem to be ahead but with lots of undecideds who may be influenced by the economic argument.Cameron played dirty but effective today with his reminder about the possible loss of the triple lock on pensions.Lots of pensioners may now regret their hastily returned postal vote.I'm voting to Remain in the EU but I fit the expected demographic for doing so. It all seems so close and Gibraltar may hold the trump card.
Gibraltar is about the same size as Falmouth, Cornwall, and barely half the size of Kidderminster.
It will not swing the vote.
Agree. Plus the vote from here is entirely predicable so can be factored in easily.. 20,000 for REMAIN 8 for Leave, or 7 if I am busy.
Which is funny when you think about it - because it is more likely the LEAVERS who would care what happens to Gibraltar. To The Remainers- -Gibraltar's fate is sealed - it will be eventually handed over to Spain in the interests of European Harmony.
Only the British Foreign Office thinks you increase your influence by surrendering power.
If we do vote to leave, the FCO will need to take a good hard look at themselves, and all our politicians too.
We've had the PM making all these great speeches about what his re-negotiations are aiming at. He's come back empty-handed and claimed it was a huge prize. And many MPs elected under a banner of EU-scepticism are rallying round him like sheep.
Seems to me we need a wholesale re-jigging of our priorities.
I presume Top Gear is cracking this week as nobody is moaning...makes comment, runs out the door....
No-one is watching.
I watched Top Gear once several years ago when I was a guest for a Christmas meal at a friend's house.
ye gods!
P/S can anybody tell me if there is a way to stop Microsoft from constantly popping up a sign offering me a free Windows 10 (apart from doing it of course)?
You're doomed. You might as well bow to the inevitable.
I presume Top Gear is cracking this week as nobody is moaning...makes comment, runs out the door....
Not watching. Wouldn't know.
Oh so its not just me then ;-)
I just checked Twitter and the reviews are better, if not glowing - though by now this is the dwindling audience which has stuck with it, so it's self selecting, to an extent.
The BBC aren't entirely stupid, they will fine tune it and respond and I think, in the end, they will have themselves a halfway decent car show, with some loyal fans.
But the chances of them getting 5-7m viewers a week in the UK, let alone 350m worldwide, like the old Top Gear, are essentially zero. Because the old Top Gear was, as we have oft discussed, far more than just cars. it was unique and cannot be replicated.
So they've fucked the brand and lost all that money. Eheu. And without all that foreign money they won't be able to justify the high production values and expensive "specials", so this Top Gear will die, anyway.
And on that bombshell, I'm going to check out Springwatch.
The BBC didn't f*ck anything, imo. I have no doubt whatsoever that had not Clarkson stated publicly he'd been told he would face the sack if he was involved in another incident, they would have found some way to keep him during the punch incident - it was too big and worth too much for them to want to cock it up.
I presume Top Gear is cracking this week as nobody is moaning...makes comment, runs out the door....
No-one is watching.
I watched it once several years ago when I was a guest for a Christmas meal at a friend's house.
ye gods!
P/S can anybody tell me if there is a way to stop Microsoft from constantly popping up a sign offering me a free Windows 10 (apart from doing it of course)?
There are a bunch of updates you have to uninstall. Google "stop windows 10 update" or something similar, I'm sure there'll be loads of hits!
I presume Top Gear is cracking this week as nobody is moaning...makes comment, runs out the door....
No-one is watching.
I watched it once several years ago when I was a guest for a Christmas meal at a friend's house.
ye gods!
P/S can anybody tell me if there is a way to stop Microsoft from constantly popping up a sign offering me a free Windows 10 (apart from doing it of course)?
There are a bunch of updates you have to uninstall. Google "stop windows 10 update" or something similar, I'm sure there'll be loads of hits!
Although why would you? Windows 10 is light years ahead in terms of security and usability.
The football hooligans are not helping the Leave cause because it reminds us of the Little England mentality. In this area, leafy South Western market town, Leave seem to be ahead but with lots of undecideds who may be influenced by the economic argument.Cameron played dirty but effective today with his reminder about the possible loss of the triple lock on pensions.Lots of pensioners may now regret their hastily returned postal vote.I'm voting to Remain in the EU but I fit the expected demographic for doing so. It all seems so close and Gibraltar may hold the trump card.
Gibraltar is about the same size as Falmouth, Cornwall, and barely half the size of Kidderminster.
It will not swing the vote.
Agree. Plus the vote from here is entirely predicable so can be factored in easily.. 20,000 for REMAIN 8 for Leave, or 7 if I am busy.
You got 8 votes Geoff???
PB Tories get at least 8 ballot papers at all elections.
Good thing you included a smiley face - there are some on here who think that is genuinely the case.
I presume Top Gear is cracking this week as nobody is moaning...makes comment, runs out the door....
No-one is watching.
I watched it once several years ago when I was a guest for a Christmas meal at a friend's house.
ye gods!
P/S can anybody tell me if there is a way to stop Microsoft from constantly popping up a sign offering me a free Windows 10 (apart from doing it of course)?
There are a bunch of updates you have to uninstall. Google "stop windows 10 update" or something similar, I'm sure there'll be loads of hits!
Thanks. Why didn't I think of that? Humph.
Was going to give you a "let me google that for you" link, but was feeling unusually nice and generous despite being PB Tory scum.
Whether or not the EU are worried about the UK leaving, I am still scratching my head over why Mr Cameron never took into account the possibility we might vote to leave.
I've just finished "Path to War", about Johnson's entanglement on Vietnam (see here). Every step seems rational, every disadvantage downplayed...and four years later, you have 57K GIs dead per month.
I presume Top Gear is cracking this week as nobody is moaning...makes comment, runs out the door....
No-one is watching.
I watched it once several years ago when I was a guest for a Christmas meal at a friend's house.
ye gods!
P/S can anybody tell me if there is a way to stop Microsoft from constantly popping up a sign offering me a free Windows 10 (apart from doing it of course)?
There are a bunch of updates you have to uninstall. Google "stop windows 10 update" or something similar, I'm sure there'll be loads of hits!
Although why would you? Windows 10 is light years ahead in terms of security and usability.
I upgraded my parents so they wouldn't have to worry about it. Renaming internet explorer to "edge" was the most confusing aspect, although I think they like having the start menu back.
Out of interest, what lies did the Remain campaign make about the EEA options and what they would mean.?
Norway having to accept 3/4 of all EU laws and Norway paying as much per head as the UK does. Even the most basic of research would indicate how wrong Cameron was.
The whole Remain campaign is based on a basic lie that a vote for Remain is a vote for the status quo. It isn't and they know it.
You'd have to be particularly pedantic to interpret status quo to mean that nothing will ever change for evermore. It's not dishonest to present Remain as the 'steady as she goes' choice.
It has been pretty widely reported that there are numerous acts of legislation and proposed "reforms" that the Commission are holding back until after June 23rd. There is no status quo, although Remain would like to pretend there is.
The whole Remain campaign is based on a basic lie that a vote for Remain is a vote for the status quo. It isn't and they know it.
You'd have to be particularly pedantic to interpret status quo to mean that nothing will ever change for evermore. It's not dishonest to present Remain as the 'steady as she goes' choice.
Agreed. If Remain deliberately held back a fundamental change that they knew was going to happen - for example a requirement for all EU countries to join the Euro despite any opt-outs - that would be a lie. But if it's something not yet known that may be negotiated in the future, it wouldn't be. I have to make periodic decisions about whether to stay in my job. As far as I know things will carry on as at present for the time being, but I don't expect them to never change. That's stasis, not the status quo.
I presume Top Gear is cracking this week as nobody is moaning...makes comment, runs out the door....
No-one is watching.
I watched it once several years ago when I was a guest for a Christmas meal at a friend's house.
ye gods!
P/S can anybody tell me if there is a way to stop Microsoft from constantly popping up a sign offering me a free Windows 10 (apart from doing it of course)?
There are a bunch of updates you have to uninstall. Google "stop windows 10 update" or something similar, I'm sure there'll be loads of hits!
Although why would you? Windows 10 is light years ahead in terms of security and usability.
Windows 7 is OK. I have some intricate free (and also very expensive special) software that works fine with the status quo, and my security is of the belt-and-braces kind.
I presume Top Gear is cracking this week as nobody is moaning...makes comment, runs out the door....
No-one is watching.
I watched it once several years ago when I was a guest for a Christmas meal at a friend's house.
ye gods!
P/S can anybody tell me if there is a way to stop Microsoft from constantly popping up a sign offering me a free Windows 10 (apart from doing it of course)?
There are a bunch of updates you have to uninstall. Google "stop windows 10 update" or something similar, I'm sure there'll be loads of hits!
Although why would you? Windows 10 is light years ahead in terms of security and usability.
Not so positive today - Remain were actually ahead. I had my first 'unpleasant' doorstep experiences, both men in their 30s/40s. I think Leave will struggle with middle-class families with young children.
disappointing, what did they say? Is project fear working? Chin up just a few more days to og we can do this. Yes we can!
They were just rude. I didn't waste my time finding out why!
I presume Top Gear is cracking this week as nobody is moaning...makes comment, runs out the door....
No-one is watching.
I watched it once several years ago when I was a guest for a Christmas meal at a friend's house.
ye gods!
P/S can anybody tell me if there is a way to stop Microsoft from constantly popping up a sign offering me a free Windows 10 (apart from doing it of course)?
There are a bunch of updates you have to uninstall. Google "stop windows 10 update" or something similar, I'm sure there'll be loads of hits!
Although why would you? Windows 10 is light years ahead in terms of security and usability.
This is obviously a usage of the word "usability" that I was not previously familiar with.
My older daughter's mother is a bit of a bellwether for elections. She nearly always votes on the winning side. She's a soft centre liberal with some Tory tendencies, but also voted Blair several times.
She's been havering over the euroref and has flirted, conspicuously, with LEAVE. At heart she is a LEAVER, as she says herself.
But today over a very pleasant Father's Day lunch she confessed she would vote REMAIN, despite her yearning to quit. Project Fear has worked, she feels she just can't take the risk.
I suspect this will be the case for millions. I stand by my Nojam predix of
REMAIN 56 LEAVE 44
You do know that father's day is next Sunday, right?
Or are you getting your anecdotes in early.
Is it? OK. Hah. Then I'm away next Sunday and I guess we had a special one, for me, without my even realising.
I believe it's Fathers' Day today in the USA.
Also June 19th! I think Fathers day is (edit: more) standardised, while Mothers day isn't.
Edit2: A quick look at wikipedia told me I am totally wrong. ho-hum.
Mother's Day in Blighty is always three Sundays before Easter Sunday.
I really like the way the Germans play football. Their national side is like a top Premier league team with added quality. Hard work rate, a focus on going forward, working as a unit rather than relying on individual stars. I hope they win the tournament.
I presume Top Gear is cracking this week as nobody is moaning...makes comment, runs out the door....
No-one is watching.
I watched it once several years ago when I was a guest for a Christmas meal at a friend's house.
ye gods!
P/S can anybody tell me if there is a way to stop Microsoft from constantly popping up a sign offering me a free Windows 10 (apart from doing it of course)?
There are a bunch of updates you have to uninstall. Google "stop windows 10 update" or something similar, I'm sure there'll be loads of hits!
Although why would you? Windows 10 is light years ahead in terms of security and usability.
I upgraded my parents so they wouldn't have to worry about it. Renaming internet explorer to "edge" was the most confusing aspect, although I think they like having the start menu back.
Edge is not internet explorer.
For an added bonus it doesn't seem Microsoft compatible but then neither does Internet Explorer any more. The last Office 2016 install I did had to be started from Chrome, which apparently is.
eric from usa @ericschmerick 5h5 hours ago Ban gay clubs and muslims and orlando and men and dancing so this never happens again --not assault rifles though we need those
A very good question and aside from brands which could, quite easily, be substituted by home produced products or manafactures from elsewhere I am struggling. There must be more but there are only two things I can think of Port and Brandy. Neither of which I would class as strategic necessities but I cannot think of a replacement product that is produced outside of the EU.
I would consider Port and Brandy, and even more Rioja, as strategic necessities.
Brandy has a bit of a metallic taste to me. Scotch is the far superior after dinner drink. Port I can take or leave, but I'm with you on Rioja. Worst comes to worst, we'd have to take that 4% rise on the chin.
A very good question and aside from brands which could, quite easily, be substituted by home produced products or manafactures from elsewhere I am struggling. There must be more but there are only two things I can think of Port and Brandy. Neither of which I would class as strategic necessities but I cannot think of a replacement product that is produced outside of the EU.
I would consider Port and Brandy, and even more Rioja, as strategic necessities.
Brandy has a bit of a metallic taste to me. Scotch is the far superior after dinner drink. Port I can take or leave, but I'm with you on Rioja. Worst comes to worst, we'd have to take that 4% rise on the chin.
Rioja is indeed important but if there was a risk that the French would stop selling us Chablis I would have to reconsider. And some of their cheeses come to that.
I really don't get why Remain focus on completely irrelevant things like London house prices and interest rates when they can claim a threat to our true essentials.
May I respectfully suggest that you experiment a bit more, Mr. L. For example what ever class of French cheese you desire there is likely now to be a UK cheese, that is equal or probably better and which is probably cheaper or at least better value for money.
The same applies to wines. Its is years and years since I have bought a French wine (except whilst in France where it is difficult to buy anything else). Far better value is to be had from the New World, Australia/NZ and, in certain categories, the UK.
We went through a phase of drinking a lot of new world wines and also South African wines, especially reds. Still like them but more and more we find ourselves going back to France. I think they have lifted their game in response to the new world challenge giving better consistency.
My favourite cheese of the moment is montagnolo, a German cheese which tastes like a camembert version of cambozola. If you haven't tried it do.
Fair go, Mr. L, and I would say that a great many French wines are very good indeed. They are just appalling value for money, given that you can get an equivalent or even better product from elsewhere for less money.
Thanks for the tip re Monteagolo, I have put it on Herslef's shopping list. May I return the favour and recommend to you Lynchetts Soft, a Sussex cheese in the Camembert style but oh so much more flavoursome than 90% of the Camembert that you can buy over here or even in Normandy.
I would consider Port and Brandy, and even more Rioja, as strategic necessities.
Brandy has a bit of a metallic taste to me. Scotch is the far superior after dinner drink. Port I can take or leave, but I'm with you on Rioja. Worst comes to worst, we'd have to take that 4% rise on the chin.
A very good question and aside from brands which could, quite easily, be substituted by home produced products or manafactures from elsewhere I am struggling. There must be more but there are only two things I can think of Port and Brandy. Neither of which I would class as strategic necessities but I cannot think of a replacement product that is produced outside of the EU.
I would consider Port and Brandy, and even more Rioja, as strategic necessities.
Brandy has a bit of a metallic taste to me. Scotch is the far superior after dinner drink. Port I can take or leave, but I'm with you on Rioja. Worst comes to worst, we'd have to take that 4% rise on the chin.
Rioja is indeed important but if there was a risk that the French would stop selling us Chablis I would have to reconsider. And some of their cheeses come to that.
I really don't get why Remain focus on completely irrelevant things like London house prices and interest rates when they can claim a threat to our true essentials.
May I respectfully suggest that you experiment a bit more, Mr. L. For example what ever class of French cheese you desire there is likely now to be a UK cheese, that is equal or probably better and which is probably cheaper or at least better value for money.
The same applies to wines. Its is years and years since I have bought a French wine (except whilst in France where it is difficult to buy anything else). Far better value is to be had from the New World, Australia/NZ and, in certain categories, the UK.
We went through a phase of drinking a lot of new world wines and also South African wines, especially reds. Still like them but more and more we find ourselves going back to France. I think they have lifted their game in response to the new world challenge giving better consistency.
My favourite cheese of the moment is montagnolo, a German cheese which tastes like a camembert version of cambozola. If you haven't tried it do.
Fair go, Mr. L, ans I would say that a great many French wines are very good indeed. They are just appalling value for money, given that you can get an equivalent or even better product elsewhere for less money.
Thanks for the tip re Monteagolo, I have put in on Herslef's shopping list. May I return the favour and recommend to you Lynchetts Soft, a Sussex cheese in the Camembert style but oh so much more flavoursome than 90% of the Camembert that you can buy over here or even in Normandy.
Rubio: "Islamic terrorists need to know they will not win..."
Clinton: "this was an act of terror"
Rubio doesn't care if non-Islamic terrorists know they will not win?
A fair statement in the context of recent events, especially given the struggle with ISIS.
If it had been a right-wing extremist and Clinton had said "Ultra-conservative terrorists need to know they will not win", everyone would have been all over her for being specific and caring more about some types of terrorism!
But no one perceives a threat from ultra-conservative terrorism, or if they do it is orders of magnitude lower than from islamic terrorism (rightly or wrongly).
Tell that to all the bombed abortion clinics and murdered doctors in America.
The whole Remain campaign is based on a basic lie that a vote for Remain is a vote for the status quo. It isn't and they know it.
You'd have to be particularly pedantic to interpret status quo to mean that nothing will ever change for evermore. It's not dishonest to present Remain as the 'steady as she goes' choice.
Agreed. If Remain deliberately held back a fundamental change that they knew was going to happen - for example a requirement for all EU countries to join the Euro despite any opt-outs - that would be a lie. But if it's something not yet known that may be negotiated in the future, it wouldn't be. I have to make periodic decisions about whether to stay in my job. As far as I know things will carry on as at present for the time being, but I don't expect them to never change. That's stasis, not the status quo.
But if you had to make a decision to sign a contract that meant you couldn't leave your job for, say, 5 years, and your boss announced a 20% pay cut the day after you signed you'd be pretty hacked off, right?
Returning to your views on how much more impressive London is now than in your student days.
The old, declining London had numerous Conservative voting areas in middle suburbia which it doesn't do now - the Ealings, the Lewishams, the Ilfords, Hornsey, Streatham etc.
Are your views on how London has improved too much influenced by central London ?
I'd certainly agree that Kings Cross is much improved these days over what it was in the 1980s and 1990s but you can probably say the same about every mainline railway station and its environs in the country.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .
I was being polite to Leave, which is possibly the most dishonest political campaign I have been subjected to. More so than the Yes Scotland campaign in 2014, which itself was a dodgy affair.
To be clear I am talking about the campaigns themselves, not the choices, which are reasonable ones.
The Remain campaign is far more dishonest than the Leave campaign (though that is rather like grading the quality of dogsh!t)
Where is the specific dishonesty in the Remain campaign? The charge against the remain campaign is that they are magnifying risks and talking up supposedly worst case scenarios. But that is not dishonesty per se.
It is exactly the same charge as that against the Leave campaign. You just call one exaggerations and the other lies. The whole Remain campaign is based on a basic lie that a vote for Remain is a vote for the status quo. It isn't and they know it. Then there are all the lies about Cameron's renegotiation. And the lies about the EEA options and what they would mean. Basically the whole Remain campaign is one big pack of lies.
Out of interest, what lies did the Remain campaign make about the EEA options and what they would mean.?
What you need to understand is that in the teeny little PB bubble the "intelligentsia" have decided that despite the main motive of Leavers being to control immigration, and despite the Leave leaders stating they want to leave the Single Market, actually, apropos of nothing, what is best for the country is to immediately rejoin the EEA and apply the emergency brake (a temporary measure to be used as in exceptional circumstances), which will mean immigration just about unchanged from the status quo ante.
I presume Top Gear is cracking this week as nobody is moaning...makes comment, runs out the door....
Not watching. Wouldn't know.
Oh so its not just me then ;-)
I just checked Twitter and the reviews are better, if not glowing - though by now this is the dwindling audience which has stuck with it, so it's self selecting, to an extent.
The BBC aren't entirely stupid, they will fine tune it and respond and I think, in the end, they will have themselves a halfway decent car show, with some loyal fans.
But the chances of them getting 5-7m viewers a week in the UK, let alone 350m worldwide, like the old Top Gear, are essentially zero. Because the old Top Gear was, as we have oft discussed, far more than just cars. it was unique and cannot be replicated.
So they've fucked the brand and lost all that money. Eheu. And without all that foreign money they won't be able to justify the high production values and expensive "specials", so this Top Gear will die, anyway.
And on that bombshell, I'm going to check out Springwatch.
If I remember correctly, the whole row between Clarkson and his production boss blew up at the end of a tiring day's filming when the BBC failed to provide the show's stars with any decent grub ........ in itself absolutely extraordinary, giving the huge costs involved in making each programme. It reminded me of the bizarre nightly dressing room demands demands made by certain, mainly top American artists appearing in West End shows, which included such items as six bottles of the finest vintage champagne, caviar, chocolates, an abundance of fresh flowers, etc, etc, etc. It simply wasn't possible for the individual concerned to actually consume/properly appreciate such largesse, but rather it was a means of ensuring that his or her elevated star status was properly recognised by the theatre's management, to avoid any possible misunderstanding. In such circumstances, we are talking about theatres accommodating 1000 or fewer paying customers per night, rather than an established, hugely successful TV series selling all around the world and earning the BBC hundreds of millions.
The whole Remain campaign is based on a basic lie that a vote for Remain is a vote for the status quo. It isn't and they know it.
You'd have to be particularly pedantic to interpret status quo to mean that nothing will ever change for evermore. It's not dishonest to present Remain as the 'steady as she goes' choice.
Agreed. If Remain deliberately held back a fundamental change that they knew was going to happen - for example a requirement for all EU countries to join the Euro despite any opt-outs - that would be a lie. But if it's something not yet known that may be negotiated in the future, it wouldn't be. I have to make periodic decisions about whether to stay in my job. As far as I know things will carry on as at present for the time being, but I don't expect them to never change. That's stasis, not the status quo.
But if you had to make a decision to sign a contract that meant you couldn't leave your job for, say, 5 years, and your boss announced a 20% pay cut the day after you signed you'd be pretty hacked off, right?
Where's the analogy with the referendum? A Remain vote is valid only as long as Parliament says it is. If something drastic changes on the 24th they can take action as they see fit.
I would consider Port and Brandy, and even more Rioja, as strategic necessities.
Brandy has a bit of a metallic taste to me. Scotch is the far superior after dinner drink. Port I can take or leave, but I'm with you on Rioja. Worst comes to worst, we'd have to take that 4% rise on the chin.
A very good question and aside from brands which could, quite easily, be substituted by home produced products or manafactures from elsewhere I am struggling. There must be more but there are only two things I can think of Port and Brandy. Neither of which I would class as strategic necessities but I cannot think of a replacement product that is produced outside of the EU.
I would consider Port and Brandy, and even more Rioja, as strategic necessities.
Brandy has a bit of a metallic taste to me. Scotch is the far superior after dinner drink. Port I can take or leave, but I'm with you on Rioja. Worst comes to worst, we'd have to take that 4% rise on the chin.
Rioja is indeed important but if there was a risk that the French would stop selling us Chablis I would have to reconsider. And some of their cheeses come to that.
I really don't get why Remain focus on completely irrelevant things like London house prices and interest rates when they can claim a threat to our true essentials.
May I respectfully suggest that you experiment a bit more, Mr. L. For example what ever class of French cheese you desire there is likely now to be a UK cheese, that is equal or probably better and which is probably cheaper or at least better value for money.
The same applies to wines. Its is years and years since I have bought a French wine (except whilst in France where it is difficult to buy anything else). Far better value is to be had from the New World, Australia/NZ and, in certain categories, the UK.
French wines are absurdly overpriced, especially in Burgundy and Bordeaux. Go south down the Rhone Valley and then into the Languedoc and you can get some bargains. But yes, essentially right.
Their cheeses are still great but so is a new English cheese like Claxstone Blue.
Their ham is nice but not a patch on Spanish Jamon Iberica de Bellota.
So far I had the best meal of the year (having travelled all round the world, including a Michelin star press trip to Lyon) in Idle Rocks Hotel, Cornwall, the next best was Barrafina in London then the Uma Paro in Bhutan (the King of Bhutan's favourite restaurant).
I wouldn't put any of the French restaurants in my top 20. And a couple were very famous.
Guy Savoy is a world top ten restaurant, Pierre Gangiere top twenty. But, you are right: France has gone from dominating the world food leagues, to being a marginal player. And all in a generation.
Question does the net contribution figure we talk about include tariffs the EU places and keeps on our imports?
No. Our net tariffs to the EU if we were on WTO rules would be £4.6 billion.
We would levy approximately £8.9 billion on them.
Thats another £82 million a week net on top of the £350 million we save on fees.Also the government dosent pay the tariffs to the EU buyers do so the government takes the full £171 million a week.
So £350 million a week was wrong - its over £500 million a week
Starting to look like a no brainer
There is what I believe is another £2 billion a year going out of the International Aid budget to the European Commission. This isn't included in our 'fees' as Remain supporting outlets are careful to call them, but would have probably been included in the original 'pink book' figure used by Vote Leave. I wouldn't be surprised if there's additional money flowing to the EU from other departmental budgets too.
Have you pinged the Leave campaign with that?
No. Thought about it but wouldn't know who best to contact. It would also require a FOI request - the last report that gives a breakdown of 'Multilateral Overseas Development Aid' by organisation was in 2013. The 2014 report doesn't show this breakdown, at least not in a format that I can decipher.
Well, even the 2013 numbers would be useful. As for who to contact, not sure. Twitter seems like a good place, but then you might just end up with the PR intern in charge of the twitter account.
If you've got workings to back it up, you can find my gmail on my blog.
I can then email a friend who has got my numbers into the campaign.
Comments
The same applies to wines. Its is years and years since I have bought a French wine (except whilst in France where it is difficult to buy anything else). Far better value is to be had from the New World, Australia/NZ and, in certain categories, the UK.
Joking aside, an absolutely standard line from any of the miners was "No kid of mine is going down the fookin' pit". Not many made it past 60. Just a shitty, shitty job.
My Dad was the same about the steel industry. Had he lived, I think he'd have been pleased that at least two of his kids made it to uni.
Edit2: A quick look at wikipedia told me I am totally wrong. ho-hum.
Unless you know better?
I think it went a bit like that.
My favourite cheese of the moment is montagnolo, a German cheese which tastes like a camembert version of cambozola. If you haven't tried it do.
I am bothered about Gibraltar. But I have concluded that leaving the EU is the right thing for the UK to do, and we must just do the best we can with the consequences that arise.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/statistics-on-international-development-2014
What's interesting is that this is in the 'Multilateral Aid Review' (downloadable on the same page)
'MAR score of adequate or poor and on average “some” rating: as discussed, these organisations are important to development objectives and to wider UK strategic interests. All have made some progress against their UK reform priorities, but below the level that we were looking for. Given their importance to the UK, DFID is continuing to fund all of these organisations, with an increasing emphasis on the need for progress on reform objectives.
******The European Commission budget is fixed under international agreements.*****
Funding to the other organisations in this group will remain at or below 2010 levels, meaning that the real value of UK contributions will continue to fall.' (emphasis mine)
-So there's one of two possibilities. Either the current 'what the EU costs Britain' figures do include a proportion of the DFID budget (which I haven't heard of them doing, but happy to be corrected), OR a fixed and growing proportion of the DFID budget is remitted to the European Commission, which is concealed from the public, despite it not being a good provider of aid.
ye gods!
P/S can anybody tell me if there is a way to stop Microsoft from constantly popping up a sign offering me a free Windows 10 (apart from doing it of course)?
We've had the PM making all these great speeches about what his re-negotiations are aiming at. He's come back empty-handed and claimed it was a huge prize. And many MPs elected under a banner of EU-scepticism are rallying round him like sheep.
Seems to me we need a wholesale re-jigging of our priorities.
https://vimeo.com/170323051
Shocking behaviour here
Have you done any campaigning now?
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
For an added bonus it doesn't seem Microsoft compatible but then neither does Internet Explorer any more. The last Office 2016 install I did had to be started from Chrome, which apparently is.
Ban gay clubs and muslims and orlando and men and dancing so this never happens again --not assault rifles though we need those
Thanks for the tip re Monteagolo, I have put it on Herslef's shopping list. May I return the favour and recommend to you Lynchetts Soft, a Sussex cheese in the Camembert style but oh so much more flavoursome than 90% of the Camembert that you can buy over here or even in Normandy.
The old, declining London had numerous Conservative voting areas in middle suburbia which it doesn't do now - the Ealings, the Lewishams, the Ilfords, Hornsey, Streatham etc.
Are your views on how London has improved too much influenced by central London ?
I'd certainly agree that Kings Cross is much improved these days over what it was in the 1980s and 1990s but you can probably say the same about every mainline railway station and its environs in the country.
It is pure PB Leavers' fantasy.
It reminded me of the bizarre nightly dressing room demands demands made by certain, mainly top American artists appearing in West End shows, which included such items as six bottles of the finest vintage champagne, caviar, chocolates, an abundance of fresh flowers, etc, etc, etc.
It simply wasn't possible for the individual concerned to actually consume/properly appreciate such largesse, but rather it was a means of ensuring that his or her elevated star status was properly recognised by the theatre's management, to avoid any possible misunderstanding.
In such circumstances, we are talking about theatres accommodating 1000 or fewer paying customers per night, rather than an established, hugely successful TV series selling all around the world and earning the BBC hundreds of millions.
Leave 50.33%.
Remain 49.67%.