However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).
I do remember the pound collapsing then, yes. I think at the time Thingy's predecessor was still in charge at the ECB and pursuing a strong Euro strategy and the UK had started QE (happy to be contradicted if I have the timings wrong). Remember the Greece black hole wasn't revealed until 2009(?) and Sarkozy was still boasting it was an Anglo-American problem...silly him.
The point being that that collapse was a known side effect of a deliberately pursued strategy. A post-Brexit collapse will be the result of an outcome not chosen by the UK government, as it pivots from a pro-economy to an anti-immigration anti-economy stance: hieraeth and heimat instead of pennies and pounds.
Parenthetically I think the GBP collapse will be greater and/or longer than you think. And since Soros is piling into gold, he agrees with me...
You can trip over accidentally and bang your head, or you can deliberately whack yourself over the head with a frying pan.
Of course a post Brexit economic shock will be longer because it will be accompanied by years of economic and political uncertainty, something the markets and capital hate. Interest rates will need to rise to check imported inflation which will in turn strangle our economy through higher borrowing costs for government and mortgage holders.
In the post Brexit economic climate something will have to give as Britain adjusts to being poorer. Pensions, the NHS, private pensions, employment.
My wife's company has written to their employees urging them to register and vote remain.
I'm hoping common sense prevails come the 23rd. This whole Brexit debacle has shown to me that large parts of our country are racist, something Brexit will not help against incidentally. I'm hoping though that ultimately self interest will come out on top
Crawl away Tyson. You lost all credibility with your view that only those you agree with should be allowed to vote. You really are a worm.
I worked in children's mental health. If we had a self harming teenager who was cutting herself we would try and stop her, maybe though using the mental health act. But now I look around me and see an angry UK, angry at the world, change, worried, about to self harm by voting Brexit. Of course I would like to stop these people doing this.
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
Hi Alex. It will depend on the relationship between the parties at the time. If it is a case of things just taking a long term but basic agreement about the scope of the new relationship being in place then there is contingency for the negotiations to be extended. If it is the case that there are irreconcilable differences between the two sides then that structured negotiation under article 50 will end and we will start talking about trade deals with the EU outside the scope of the Article 50 agreement.
It is a bit artificial really because there would be no actual difference between talks under Article 50 and other trade talks except for the fact that at that point we will formally leave the EU (we remain a member until Article 50 talks end).
Dreadful news from Orlando.I'm afraid Islam hates homosexuality so whilst the actions may be condemned you won't find too many Muslims backing gay rights.
Awful. Just awful.
Texas Lt Governor has tweeted 'Do not be deceived: God cannot be mocked. A man reaps what he sows',
Mr. Topping, Brown signed up to the Lisbon Treaty without a referendum, despite all parties promising a referendum on the Constitution (the Lisbon Treaty with a different font style). That was not democratic.
Not the same as saying he will resign or lose the leadership and he is the elected Prime Minister who will have just won a referendum, Tory members can say what they like, the UK electorate will have voted to Remain and the PM will still be a Remainer as a consequence
Whether or not he faces a leadership election is up to Conservative MPs. Who wins that leadership election is up to Conservative Party members.
There has to be a vote of confidence by MPs first before a leadership election, as a majority of Tory MPs back Remain if Remain win Cameron would win that vote of confidence comfortably
Many Remain Con MPs have been telling their electors for years that they are anti-EU. They will need the cover of a Leave Con leader at the next election.
I expect there will be focussed free trade agreements - free trade in cars will be wished for by Germany, free trade in food will be blocked by France. Don't think you need all or nothing agreements.
However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).
I do remember the pound collapsing then, yes. I think at the time Thingy's predecessor was still in charge at the ECB and pursuing a strong Euro strategy and the UK had started QE (happy to be contradicted if I have the timings wrong). Remember the Greece black hole wasn't revealed until 2009(?) and Sarkozy was still boasting it was an Anglo-American problem...silly him.
The point being that that collapse was a known side effect of a deliberately pursued strategy. A post-Brexit collapse will be the result of an outcome not chosen by the UK government, as it pivots from a pro-economy to an anti-immigration anti-economy stance: hieraeth and heimat instead of pennies and pounds.
Parenthetically I think the GBP collapse will be greater and/or longer than you think. And since Soros is piling into gold, he agrees with me...
You can trip over accidentally and bang your head, or you can deliberately whack yourself over the head with a frying pan.
Of course a post Brexit economic shock will be longer because it will be accompanied by years of economic and political uncertainty, something the markets and capital hate. Interest rates will need to rise to check imported inflation which will in turn strangle our economy through higher borrowing costs for government and mortgage holders.
In the post Brexit economic climate something will have to give as Britain adjusts to being poorer. Pensions, the NHS, private pensions, employment.
My wife's company has written to their employees urging them to register and vote remain.
I'm hoping common sense prevails come the 23rd. This whole Brexit debacle has shown to me that large parts of our country are racist, something Brexit will not help against incidentally. I'm hoping though that ultimately self interest will come out on top
Crawl away Tyson. You lost all credibility with your view that only those you agree with should be allowed to vote. You really are a worm.
I worked in children's mental health. If we had a self harming teenager who was cutting herself we would try and stop her, maybe though using the mental health act. But now I look around me and see an angry UK, angry at the world, change, worried, about to self harm by voting Brexit. Of course I would like to stop these people doing this.
That hole you are digging yourself gets deeper every time you post.
Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?
Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.
Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.
This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.
The shooter may be a Muslim but the victims were largely homosexuals, not exactly Trump's demographic
I suspect that simple demographic arithmetic will not be a good guide to this election. Trump is a master at reframing an issue and you may find that it's some of the least likely groups who will be the ones to switch to him.
Trump is not going to win the gay vote, he opposes gay marriage for starters
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
Mr. Topping, Brown signed up to the Lisbon Treaty without a referendum, despite all parties promising a referendum on the Constitution (the Lisbon Treaty with a different font style). That was not democratic.
Gordon Brown was the leader of a democratically-elected government.
You should be upset with those who elected him. As am I. But that is democracy.
Did they hold a referendum to increase the higher rate of tax?
However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).
I do remember the pound collapsing then, yes. I think at the time Thingy's predecessor was still in charge at the ECB and pursuing a strong Euro strategy and the UK had started QE (happy to be contradicted if I have the timings wrong). Remember the Greece black hole wasn't revealed until 2009(?) and Sarkozy was still boasting it was an Anglo-American problem...silly him.
The point being that that collapse was a known side effect of a deliberately pursued strategy. A post-Brexit collapse will be the result of an outcome not chosen by the UK government, as it pivots from a pro-economy to an anti-immigration anti-economy stance: hieraeth and heimat instead of pennies and pounds.
Parenthetically I think the GBP collapse will be greater and/or longer than you think. And since Soros is piling into gold, he agrees with me...
You can trip over accidentally and bang your head, or you can deliberately whack yourself over the head with a frying pan.
Of course a post Brexit economic shock will be longer because it will be accompanied by years of economic and political uncertainty, something the markets and capital hate. Interest rates will need to rise to check imported inflation which will in turn strangle our economy through higher borrowing costs for government and mortgage holders.
In the post Brexit economic climate something will have to give as Britain adjusts to being poorer. Pensions, the NHS, private pensions, employment.
My wife's company has written to their employees urging them to register and vote remain.
I'm hoping common sense prevails come the 23rd. This whole Brexit debacle has shown to me that large parts of our country are racist, something Brexit will not help against incidentally. I'm hoping though that ultimately self interest will come out on top
Crawl away Tyson. You lost all credibility with your view that only those you agree with should be allowed to vote. You really are a worm.
I worked in children's mental health. If we had a self harming teenager who was cutting herself we would try and stop her, maybe though using the mental health act. But now I look around me and see an angry UK, angry at the world, change, worried, about to self harm by voting Brexit. Of course I would like to stop these people doing this.
That hole you are digging yourself gets deeper every time you post.
However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).
I do remember the pound collapsing then, yes. I think at the time Thingy's predecessor was still in charge at the ECB and pursuing a strong Euro strategy and the UK had started QE (happy to be contradicted if I have the timings wrong). Remember the Greece black hole wasn't revealed until 2009(?) and Sarkozy was still boasting it was an Anglo-American problem...silly him.
The point being that that collapse was a known side effect of a deliberately pursued strategy. A post-Brexit collapse will be the result of an outcome not chosen by the UK government, as it pivots from a pro-economy to an anti-immigration anti-economy stance: hieraeth and heimat instead of pennies and pounds.
Parenthetically I think the GBP collapse will be greater and/or longer than you think. And since Soros is piling into gold, he agrees with me...
You can trip over accidentally and bang your head, or you can deliberately whack yourself over the head with a frying pan.
Of course a post Brexit economic shock will be longer because it will be accompanied by years of economic and political uncertainty, something the markets and capital hate. Interest rates will need to rise to check imported inflation which will in turn strangle our economy through higher borrowing costs for government and mortgage holders.
In the post Brexit economic climate something will have to give as Britain adjusts to being poorer. Pensions, the NHS, private pensions, employment.
My wife's company has written to their employees urging them to register and vote remain.
I'm hoping common sense prevails come the 23rd. This whole Brexit debacle has shown to me that large parts of our country are racist, something Brexit will not help against incidentally. I'm hoping though that ultimately self interest will come out on top
Crawl away Tyson. You lost all credibility with your view that only those you agree with should be allowed to vote. You really are a worm.
I worked in children's mental health. If we had a self harming teenager who was cutting herself we would try and stop her, maybe though using the mental health act. But now I look around me and see an angry UK, angry at the world, change, worried, about to self harm by voting Brexit. Of course I would like to stop these people doing this.
Have you ever stopped to consider, even for a moment, that your opinion may not be the absolute unquestionable Truth?
I think we should all encourage Tyson to be Tyson. He's a one man Leave recruitment agency.
Interestingly if tyson said exactly what he's saying here on 'Any Questions' or 'Question Time' he'd be cheered to the rafters. Does it ever strike anyone that perhaps this site is overloaded with right wing reactionaries and tyson is more reflective of the mainstream?
kle4- to Brexiters- if we vote remain, we know pretty much what we are going to get. The EU will muddle along with all it's imperfections, the British economy will be relatively stable but still susceptible to global shocks as it was ever thus, London will continue to power ahead.
But with Brexit- there is a strong chance there will be an immediate run on sterling, and a flow of capital out of the UK. A one off shock would be OK- but this is likely to be accompanied by years of political and economic uncertainty which are likely to exacerbate any normal recessionary cycle. And we will be hit by the spectre of inflation- the imported inflation that we faced in the 70's, except poor productivity and recessionary factors will keep wages down.
The EU will have to punish the UK for a Brexit. It cannot afford to let the UK thrive outside, so we'll get the worst trading terms.
If the UK gets poorer- and the scaremongering from remain is proved to be right, who do I blame?
You make it sound like we're in a street gang and can never leave.
Seems a fair analogy.
We have to pay protection money to keep on trading with the EU, and are threatened with dire outcomes if we want to leave.
If this was a housing estate, we would have the government complaining about gang culture.
If this was a marriage, the courts would be stepping in.
But as it's the EU, that's alright then...
It's not a fair analogy at all. We can leave and we will leave if we vote to do so. Our membership of the EU gives us favourable bilateral trading terms which are not available to the vast majority of non-members of the "club". If you leave the club, why should you expect to retain these favourable terms? By pointing this out is not a "threat" it is just pointing out the bleeding obvious.
OK so some "Leavers" are adamant that the loss of these favourable terms would be more than compensated for (in the medium term at least) by increased flexibility to make bilateral deals with the rest of the World. It is an argument which may or may not have validity (the main counter being that the increased flexibility would have the downside that the negotiating power would be reduced). But it is just ridiculous to argue that our trading position with the EU will be unaffected for the worse.
And just as an aside - it is contradictory to blithely assert that a deal will be concluded so smoothly with the EU, when one of the main arguments for leaving is that the EU is incredibly sclerotic at negotiating trade deals! Apparently they'll make an exception for the UK, a country where we are assured they have been trying to screw over since 1973.
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
My guess is that they will find that we've gone off and struck better deals elsewhere.
There's a big wide world with lots of opportunity in it.
Something of a non-sequitur. Whether we've "struck deals elsewhere" is irrelevant to what happens to our trading relationship with the EU, at enforced point of exit. The two aren't mutually exclusive.
It matters enormously in terms of whether we are better off or worse off.
I wonder how long it would take us to sign the deal that the EU have been trying to strike with Canada for seven years if we were free to act unilaterally, for example?
This is where remain have a point, and it can't be hand waved away. Our top trading partners ( apologies for cherrypicking, this is from April 2016) figures are, in order, Germany, USA, Switzerland, France and China [Imports], and USA, Germany, France, the Netherlands [exports]. Canada is noise level in comparison.
And outside the EU members and Switzerland the EU has failed to secure a comprehensive trade deal with any of those countries. And the trade deal they are looking to secure with the US comes with so much extra baggage included it is very likely going to fall before it gets anywhere near agreement.
The question has to be asked, how could we actually do any worse than the EU has done?
Dreadful news from Orlando.I'm afraid Islam hates homosexuality so whilst the actions may be condemned you won't find too many Muslims backing gay rights.
Awful. Just awful.
There are plenty of EU countries who aren't terribly keen either. Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland all have constitutional bans on gay marriage, and a scattering of others don't allow it.
There are still countries who require castration or sterilisation for trans people before access to treatment is permitted. It's not all kittens and rainbows.
I do agree it's not _as_ bad. They generally don't throw people off buildings.
Mr. Topping, Brown signed up to the Lisbon Treaty without a referendum, despite all parties promising a referendum on the Constitution (the Lisbon Treaty with a different font style). That was not democratic.
Gordon Brown was the leader of a democratically-elected government.
You should be upset with those who elected him. As am I. But that is democracy.
Did they hold a referendum to increase the higher rate of tax?
At which election did we vote with Brown as prospective PM as leader of his party?
I think we should all encourage Tyson to be Tyson. He's a one man Leave recruitment agency.
Interestingly if tyson said exactly what he's saying here on 'Any Questions' or 'Question Time' he'd be cheered to the rafters. Does it ever strike anyone that perhaps this site is overloaded with right wing reactionaries and tyson is more reflective of the mainstream?
Yes to the first, perhaps, no the second - mainstream people don't think anyone who votes Brexit is probably a racist, or it would not be as close as it appears. Definitely closer in being worried about the risks though.
That said, it would be nice if people refrained from personal insults. But such is this debate, even more than most.
A packed nightclub, he seems to have been in there for a few hours. There is a suggestion he also had a suicide vest, but was taken out by the SWAT team before he could detonate. Could have been even worse.
The death toll is horrifying, I can only think of the Utoya shootings in Norway which were a larger number.
128 were killed in the Bataclan shootings in Paris
I was thinking of single gunman, but of course, you're right.
Mr. Roger, Any Questions also cheered Mehdi Hasan several years ago (it was hosted in a mosque) when he claimed Muslims in modern Britain were treated like Jews in 1930s Germany.
Whilst PB does have a more... niche audience than the mainstream, it's less bonkers than an AQ/QT audience.
And you are entitled to vote Leave for whatever the hell reason you want.
Don't, however, give us the anti-democracy bolleaux.
(Welcome!)
You sound upset about something. You wont get reasoned discussion with aggression.
No, the EU is very un-democratic. We weren't asked to have it and we cannot change the laws. That is my reason for Leave. For the rest, immigration & terrorism are big factors
Trump is not going to win the gay vote, he opposes gay marriage for starters
No, Trump does not - in fact, he is well known in the States as, historically, not caring whether someone is gay or not - his club in Palm Beach was the first to admit gay people when many other clubs did not.
I'm sorry but Brexit needs to address these issues instead of just say project fear hits again, or scaremongering.
No, actually, it doesn't.
Leaving aside that BrExit is a action, not a campaign group.
VLTC has to do no more nor less than campaign for leaving the EU. Anymore than unilateralists should be telling the government what weapons it should be buying to replace Trident. That is totally and absolutely the problem of the government of the day, they called the referendum, they will be in control after the referendum, if they failed to make plans and preparations for any eventuality for the referendum they called, then they are negligent and deserve a good kicking at the ballot box.
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
My guess is that they will find that we've gone off and struck better deals elsewhere.
There's a big wide world with lots of opportunity in it.
Something of a non-sequitur. Whether we've "struck deals elsewhere" is irrelevant to what happens to our trading relationship with the EU, at enforced point of exit. The two aren't mutually exclusive.
It matters enormously in terms of whether we are better off or worse off.
I wonder how long it would take us to sign the deal that the EU have been trying to strike with Canada for seven years if we were free to act unilaterally, for example?
This is where remain have a point, and it can't be hand waved away. Our top trading partners ( apologies for cherrypicking, this is from April 2016) figures are, in order, Germany, USA, Switzerland, France and China [Imports], and USA, Germany, France, the Netherlands [exports]. Canada is noise level in comparison.
And outside the EU members and Switzerland the EU has failed to secure a comprehensive trade deal with any of those countries. And the trade deal they are looking to secure with the US comes with so much extra baggage included it is very likely going to fall before it gets anywhere near agreement.
The question has to be asked, how could we actually do any worse than the EU has done?
I don't disagree Richard. I just think that people are always worried by ambiguity and uncertainty. The most important thing to sort out would be our German trade. And that I don't worry about at all. They are _so_ incented to get an agreement. Some of the tiddlers outside the EU8 are pretty much non sequiturs.
Trump is not going to win the gay vote, he opposes gay marriage for starters
No, Trump does not - in fact, he is well known in the States as, historically, not caring whether someone is gay or not - his club in Palm Beach was the first to admit gay people when many other clubs did not.
Trump has disavowed any past support for same sex marriage in this campaign.
Unless and until it becomes clear that there was a specific Islamic motive for the attacks in Orlando isn't it better to hold off on the speculation. Yes in the end it is likely that was the case but it is equally possible this was just a very disturbed individual who happened to be Muslim.
This doesn't mean I look any more favourably on Islam. I still pretty much detest it as a concept and a force in the world. But some people will end up looking really dumb if it turns out this bloke had serious mental issues unconnected with his faith.
An observation on MoD- what a wonderfully articulate and confident young man Jermaine Jenas is. I'm always amazed how some of these young footballers transcend so seamlessly and effortlessly into the cauldron of live TV.
Homeland Security chairman: "It was an Islamist terrorist attack."
Here's a theory. Trump threatens ISIS in every speech... Part of their ideology requires "The Final Conflict" to happen soon.
Do they want Trump to win the election? Any other swing states lined up for a spectacular outrage?
Trump's travel ban policy on Muslims would not have stopped this shooter who was a US citizen
But you know he will reframe as it as I said we just don't know, we have to find out what is going on before admitting more people. The reality of things is a different matter, but this is how he will frame it.
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
My guess is that they will find that we've gone off and struck better deals elsewhere.
There's a big wide world with lots of opportunity in it.
Something of a non-sequitur. Whether we've "struck deals elsewhere" is irrelevant to what happens to our trading relationship with the EU, at enforced point of exit. The two aren't mutually exclusive.
It matters enormously in terms of whether we are better off or worse off.
I wonder how long it would take us to sign the deal that the EU have been trying to strike with Canada for seven years if we were free to act unilaterally, for example?
This is where remain have a point, and it can't be hand waved away. Our top trading partners ( apologies for cherrypicking, this is from April 2016) figures are, in order, Germany, USA, Switzerland, France and China [Imports], and USA, Germany, France, the Netherlands [exports]. Canada is noise level in comparison.
And outside the EU members and Switzerland the EU has failed to secure a comprehensive trade deal with any of those countries. And the trade deal they are looking to secure with the US comes with so much extra baggage included it is very likely going to fall before it gets anywhere near agreement.
The question has to be asked, how could we actually do any worse than the EU has done?
Here's a question Richard.
I'm sure we could do all kind of trade deals here there and everywhere, but many economists have forecast that there will be a diminution in GDP in the coming years if we leave.
Do you think that in aggregate we would be able, economically, to put ourselves in a better place if we left? It is a bold assumption (and I don't think you are an economist).
I get the Freedom! debate - freedom for UK kettle manufacturers to make kettles howsoever they goddamn please. But aggregate GDP levels? Not so sure.
For coherence, unless you are Patrick Minford, then I would stick with the Freedom thing: It is a price worth paying for our sovereignty to leave the EU.
I think we should all encourage Tyson to be Tyson. He's a one man Leave recruitment agency.
Interestingly if tyson said exactly what he's saying here on 'Any Questions' or 'Question Time' he'd be cheered to the rafters. Does it ever strike anyone that perhaps this site is overloaded with right wing reactionaries and tyson is more reflective of the mainstream?
So you agree with Tyson that anyone he doesn't agree with or whose views he dislikes should be banned from voting?
Horrible news from Florida. Guns and lunatics do not mix well. I have no doubt that if we had laxer gun controls we'd have many more shootings.
The big problem in the US is not only the fact people have guns, but people can get hold of ridiculously powerful ones, which can fire 100's of bullets in short time, and of course the easy availability of the ammo. FFS Target sells it. It isn't like you have to go to a specialist gun shop.
Farmer Giles here with his shotgun is going to have a hard time shooting 100+ people between reloading after each shot.
I think we should all encourage Tyson to be Tyson. He's a one man Leave recruitment agency.
Interestingly if tyson said exactly what he's saying here on 'Any Questions' or 'Question Time' he'd be cheered to the rafters. Does it ever strike anyone that perhaps this site is overloaded with right wing reactionaries and tyson is more reflective of the mainstream?
Hahahahaha.
Did you see QT on Thursday? Eddie Izzard voiced similarly pro EU garbage from the panel and was roundly ridiculed.
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
An observation on MoD- what a wonderfully articulate and confident young man Jermaine Jenas is. I'm always amazed how some of these young footballers transcend so seamlessly and effortlessly into the cauldron of live TV.
You mean you're amazed they're not all dumb racist bigots?
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
My guess is that they will find that we've gone off and struck better deals elsewhere.
There's a big wide world with lots of opportunity in it.
Something of a non-sequitur. Whether we've "struck deals elsewhere" is irrelevant to what happens to our trading relationship with the EU, at enforced point of exit. The two aren't mutually exclusive.
It matters enormously in terms of whether we are better off or worse off.
I wonder how long it would take us to sign the deal that the EU have been trying to strike with Canada for seven years if we were free to act unilaterally, for example?
This is where remain have a point, and it can't be hand waved away. Our top trading partners ( apologies for cherrypicking, this is from April 2016) figures are, in order, Germany, USA, Switzerland, France and China [Imports], and USA, Germany, France, the Netherlands [exports]. Canada is noise level in comparison.
And outside the EU members and Switzerland the EU has failed to secure a comprehensive trade deal with any of those countries. And the trade deal they are looking to secure with the US comes with so much extra baggage included it is very likely going to fall before it gets anywhere near agreement.
The question has to be asked, how could we actually do any worse than the EU has done?
Here's a question Richard.
I'm sure we could do all kind of trade deals here there and everywhere, but many economists have forecast that there will be a diminution in GDP in the coming years if we leave.
Do you think that in aggregate we would be able, economically, to put ourselves in a better place if we left? It is a bold assumption (and I don't think you are an economist).
I get the Freedom! debate - freedom for UK kettle manufacturers to make kettles howsoever they goddamn please. But aggregate GDP levels? Not so sure.
For coherence, unless you are Patrick Minford, then I would stick with the Freedom thing: It is a price worth paying for our sovereignty to leave the EU.
I think we should all encourage Tyson to be Tyson. He's a one man Leave recruitment agency.
Interestingly if tyson said exactly what he's saying here on 'Any Questions' or 'Question Time' he'd be cheered to the rafters. Does it ever strike anyone that perhaps this site is overloaded with right wing reactionaries and tyson is more reflective of the mainstream?
Hahahahaha.
Did you see QT on Thursday? Eddie Izzard voiced similarly pro EU garbage from the panel and was roundly ridiculed.
Islam hates homosexuality so I'm afraid the inspiration for attacks like these lies with even so called moderates.
There's a large portion of Muslims who also profess to hate the west.
Meanwhile there are significant numbers of Saudis out in Cambodia, Indonesia as well as Thailand, shagging anything that moves and necking back alcohol.
It stinks.
Whether so-called moderates can get a grip I doubt.
kle4- to Brexiters- if we vote remain, we know pretty much what we are going to get. The EU will muddle along with all it's imperfections, the British economy will be relatively stable but still susceptible to global shocks as it was ever thus, London will continue to power ahead.
But with Brexit- there is a strong chance there will be an immediate run on sterling, and a flow of capital out of the UK. A one off shock would be OK- but this is likely to be accompanied by years of political and economic uncertainty which are likely to exacerbate any normal recessionary cycle. And we will be hit by the spectre of inflation- the imported inflation that we faced in the 70's, except poor productivity and recessionary factors will keep wages down.
The EU will have to punish the UK for a Brexit. It cannot afford to let the UK thrive outside, so we'll get the worst trading terms.
If the UK gets poorer- and the scaremongering from remain is proved to be right, who do I blame?
"The EU will have to punish the UK for a Brexit."
And these are the feckers you want us to stay wedded to?
Doesn't work like that. Countries will just become more protectionist to protect their own workers. They can't within the EU but they will when we're outside. It's only what we're planning to do. Keep out EU workers to protect our own
Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?
Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.
Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.
This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.
The shooter may be a Muslim but the victims were largely homosexuals, not exactly Trump's demographic
I suspect that simple demographic arithmetic will not be a good guide to this election. Trump is a master at reframing an issue and you may find that it's some of the least likely groups who will be the ones to switch to him.
Trump is not going to win the gay vote, he opposes gay marriage for starters
If you are targeted for murder because of your sexuality you might be more concerned to have a President who will strive to keep you safe.
Not saying that Trump necessarily is that man. But events sometimes change peoples' priorities.
My favourite film of the last year, though as I am plebeian to the core take that with a pinch of salt. My daughter and I have a deal where we drag each other to films outside our comfort zones, she loved it too. Genuinely funny, and inspired casting. The only downside is I had to go and see 'Me Before You' in return.
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
My guess is that they will find that we've gone off and struck better deals elsewhere.
There's a big wide world with lots of opportunity in it.
Something of a non-sequitur. Whether we've "struck deals elsewhere" is irrelevant to what happens to our trading relationship with the EU, at enforced point of exit. The two aren't mutually exclusive.
It matters enormously in terms of whether we are better off or worse off.
I wonder how long it would take us to sign the deal that the EU have been trying to strike with Canada for seven years if we were free to act unilaterally, for example?
This is where remain have a point, and it can't be hand waved away. Our top trading partners ( apologies for cherrypicking, this is from April 2016) figures are, in order, Germany, USA, Switzerland, France and China [Imports], and USA, Germany, France, the Netherlands [exports]. Canada is noise level in comparison.
And outside the EU members and Switzerland the EU has failed to secure a comprehensive trade deal with any of those countries. And the trade deal they are looking to secure with the US comes with so much extra baggage included it is very likely going to fall before it gets anywhere near agreement.
The question has to be asked, how could we actually do any worse than the EU has done?
Here's a question Richard.
I'm sure we could do all kind of trade deals here there and everywhere, but many economists have forecast that there will be a diminution in GDP in the coming years if we leave.
Do you think that in aggregate we would be able, economically, to put ourselves in a better place if we left? It is a bold assumption (and I don't think you are an economist).
I get the Freedom! debate - freedom for UK kettle manufacturers to make kettles howsoever they goddamn please. But aggregate GDP levels? Not so sure.
For coherence, unless you are Patrick Minford, then I would stick with the Freedom thing: It is a price worth paying for our sovereignty to leave the EU.
If we vote the Leave the EU, the MOST IMPORTANT area for putting a trade agreement in place will be... the EU. An EU which all agree is incredibly ponderous and slow to negotiate and implement trade agreements...
I'm sure we could do all kind of trade deals here there and everywhere, but many economists have forecast that there will be a diminution in GDP in the coming years if we leave.
Do you think that in aggregate we would be able, economically, to put ourselves in a better place if we left? It is a bold assumption (and I don't think you are an economist).
I get the Freedom! debate - freedom for UK kettle manufacturers to make kettles howsoever they goddamn please. But aggregate GDP levels? Not so sure.
For coherence, unless you are Patrick Minford, then I would stick with the Freedom thing: It is a price worth paying for our sovereignty to leave the EU.
Yes I do think we could put ourselves in a better position economically because I think the most likely outcome from Brexit will be an EEA relationship. As such our trade with the EU will not be affected whilst we will be free to pursue our own trade agreements with the rest of the world. We will also be able to take part in the decision making process which sets the rules for world trade. Something we are currently unable to do directly.
I also strongly believe that Brexit will lead to a much quicker move to political union in the EU which will help solve the problems the Eurozone has been having with its own economic union. In the medium to long term this will benefit trade as a whole for the world economy.
As an aside - and it is not directly linked to this conversation right now - I dislike the continual reference to GDP instead of to GDP per capita. It is quite possible for GDP to increase whilst GDP per capita drops and that is certainly not good for a country.
Thinking about the lessons of last year's General Election, Leave looks in the much better position. We are also, by looking at just voting intention, running the risk of repeating last year's mistakes.
We all looked back at the polls then and said that, while the voting intention question underestimated the Conservatives' chance of a majority, the supplementary proxy questions, such as preferring David Cameron to Ed Miliband as PM, did point to a Conservative victory.
Now look at the answers given to supplementary questions - David Cameron and George Osborne generally are scoring lower than Boris et al in questions on the EU Referendum; respondents answer that Brexit will, in likelihood, lower immigration but there is more uncertainty over the economic risks from Remain, etc etc. On the basis of the GE, that should give Remain a great amount of concern.
What is also interesting is what seems like Remain's sudden increase in concern over the past week and whether it has been driven by insights into the postal vote trends. Cast your mind back to last year's GE - there was a very interesting article in Labour Uncut a few days before the election (http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/) that suggested that Ed Miliband's homage to Russell Brand was driven by panic over initial postal vote estimates. At the time, there was uncertainty whether observers could really work out the tally (the consensus, from those who had experience as observers, was that you could) but, in hindsight, it looked prescient.
I am not posting this as a pro-Brexit point, btw - I just think that Leave looks incredible value given what the data is showing.
Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?
Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.
Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.
This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.
The shooter may be a Muslim but the victims were largely homosexuals, not exactly Trump's demographic
I suspect that simple demographic arithmetic will not be a good guide to this election. Trump is a master at reframing an issue and you may find that it's some of the least likely groups who will be the ones to switch to him.
Trump is not going to win the gay vote, he opposes gay marriage for starters
If you are targeted for murder because of your sexuality you might be more concerned to have a President who will strive to keep you safe.
Not saying that Trump necessarily is that man. But events sometimes change peoples' priorities.
An observation on MoD- what a wonderfully articulate and confident young man Jermaine Jenas is. I'm always amazed how some of these young footballers transcend so seamlessly and effortlessly into the cauldron of live TV.
You mean you're amazed they're not all dumb racist bigots?
Considering you can count the number of politicians who deal with live TV effortlessly on one hand- Cameron, Portillo, Dave Miliband, I am amazed that football produces so many confident and savvy media presenters who are comfortable in their own skin. I've done a lot of radio in the past and it's nerve racking
Unless and until it becomes clear that there was a specific Islamic motive for the attacks in Orlando isn't it better to hold off on the speculation. Yes in the end it is likely that was the case but it is equally possible this was just a very disturbed individual who happened to be Muslim.
This doesn't mean I look any more favourably on Islam. I still pretty much detest it as a concept and a force in the world. But some people will end up looking really dumb if it turns out this bloke had serious mental issues unconnected with his faith.
I'm always inclined to the mentally unstable theory. I don't think well-adjusted people are inclined to mass murder, even Moslems.
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
Horrible news from Florida. Guns and lunatics do not mix well. I have no doubt that if we had laxer gun controls we'd have many more shootings.
The worry for continental Europe is that as IS is defeated, militarily-hardened extemists will slip back home to countries where automatic weapons are relatively easily available across land borders. We have some protection because we are an island but you'd hope the boffins are working on some sort of scanning for St Pancras where Eurostar terminates
I think we should all encourage Tyson to be Tyson. He's a one man Leave recruitment agency.
Interestingly if tyson said exactly what he's saying here on 'Any Questions' or 'Question Time' he'd be cheered to the rafters. Does it ever strike anyone that perhaps this site is overloaded with right wing reactionaries and tyson is more reflective of the mainstream?
Question Time is demonstrably packed with metropolitan liberals so what would you expect
Horrible news from Florida. Guns and lunatics do not mix well. I have no doubt that if we had laxer gun controls we'd have many more shootings.
The worry for continental Europe is that as IS is defeated, militarily-hardened extemists will slip back home to countries where automatic weapons are relatively easily available across land borders. We have some protection because we are an island but you'd hope the boffins are working on some sort of scanning for St Pancras where Eurostar terminates
The Russian hooligans showed how easy it is to get into Europe undetected....
Horrible news from Florida. Guns and lunatics do not mix well. I have no doubt that if we had laxer gun controls we'd have many more shootings.
The worry for continental Europe is that as IS is defeated, militarily-hardened extemists will slip back home to countries where automatic weapons are relatively easily available across land borders. We have some protection because we are an island but you'd hope the boffins are working on some sort of scanning for St Pancras where Eurostar terminates
You and your luggage do have to go through X-ray/metal detectors before boarding eurostar. So there is some level of protection.
But now I look around me and see an angry UK, angry at the world, change, worried, about to self harm by voting Brexit. Of course I would like to stop these people doing this.
Change? Self-harm??
Is being an independent country harmful? Are we incapable of looking after ourselves?
Change? People see and are worried about negative change. Self-Harm?!? The harm is from the EU.
Back in the late 80s & early 90s, I used to think we were so lucky to live in a country that didnt have the problems found elsewhere in the world.
Unless and until it becomes clear that there was a specific Islamic motive for the attacks in Orlando isn't it better to hold off on the speculation. Yes in the end it is likely that was the case but it is equally possible this was just a very disturbed individual who happened to be Muslim.
This doesn't mean I look any more favourably on Islam. I still pretty much detest it as a concept and a force in the world. But some people will end up looking really dumb if it turns out this bloke had serious mental issues unconnected with his faith.
I'm always inclined to the mentally unstable theory. I don't think well-adjusted people are inclined to mass murder, even Moslems.
Fiddling whilst Rome burns.
I've seen inside Islam and it ain't pretty. Radicals are preaching week in week out against the west, yes, right in the heart of London.
Keep telling ourselves it's only a fringe, it's only lunatics blah blah.
How many atrocities will it take to make people realise that large swathes of Islam hate the west and all we stand for? It's their mission to bring us down.
Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?
Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.
Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.
This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.
The shooter may be a Muslim but the victims were largely homosexuals, not exactly Trump's demographic
I suspect that simple demographic arithmetic will not be a good guide to this election. Trump is a master at reframing an issue and you may find that it's some of the least likely groups who will be the ones to switch to him.
Trump is not going to win the gay vote, he opposes gay marriage for starters
If you are targeted for murder because of your sexuality you might be more concerned to have a President who will strive to keep you safe.
Not saying that Trump necessarily is that man. But events sometimes change peoples' priorities.
There is no evidence he will keep you safe, his travel ban on Muslims would not have stopped this shooting, the shooter was a US citizen
Unless and until it becomes clear that there was a specific Islamic motive for the attacks in Orlando isn't it better to hold off on the speculation. Yes in the end it is likely that was the case but it is equally possible this was just a very disturbed individual who happened to be Muslim.
This doesn't mean I look any more favourably on Islam. I still pretty much detest it as a concept and a force in the world. But some people will end up looking really dumb if it turns out this bloke had serious mental issues unconnected with his faith.
I'm always inclined to the mentally unstable theory. I don't think well-adjusted people are inclined to mass murder, even Moslems.
Telegraph reporting he made a pledge of allegiance to ISIS.
I'm sure we could do all kind of trade deals here there and everywhere, but many economists have forecast that there will be a diminution in GDP in the coming years if we leave.
Do you think that in aggregate we would be able, economically, to put ourselves in a better place if we left? It is a bold assumption (and I don't think you are an economist).
I get the Freedom! debate - freedom for UK kettle manufacturers to make kettles howsoever they goddamn please. But aggregate GDP levels? Not so sure.
For coherence, unless you are Patrick Minford, then I would stick with the Freedom thing: It is a price worth paying for our sovereignty to leave the EU.
Yes I do think we could put ourselves in a better position economically because I think the most likely outcome from Brexit will be an EEA relationship. As such our trade with the EU will not be affected whilst we will be free to pursue our own trade agreements with the rest of the world. We will also be able to take part in the decision making process which sets the rules for world trade. Something we are currently unable to do directly.
I also strongly believe that Brexit will lead to a much quicker move to political union in the EU which will help solve the problems the Eurozone has been having with its own economic union. In the medium to long term this will benefit trade as a whole for the world economy.
As an aside - and it is not directly linked to this conversation right now - I dislike the continual reference to GDP instead of to GDP per capita. It is quite possible for GDP to increase whilst GDP per capita drops and that is certainly not good for a country.
I quite agree that news media and politicians should always be using GDP per head.
Unless GDP per head increases the country does not get any wealthier.
Increasing productivity is the way to increase our wealth not increasing the population.
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
My guess is that they will find that we've gone off and struck better deals elsewhere.
There's a big wide world with lots of opportunity in it.
Something of a non-sequitur. Whether we've "struck deals elsewhere" is irrelevant to what happens to our trading relationship with the EU, at enforced point of exit. The two aren't mutually exclusive.
It matters enormously in terms of whether we are better off or worse off.
I wonder how long it would take us to sign the deal that the EU have been trying to strike with Canada for seven years if we were free to act unilaterally, for example?
This is where remain have a point, and it can't be hand waved away. Our top trading partners ( apologies for cherrypicking, this is from April 2016) figures are, in order, Germany, USA, Switzerland, France and China [Imports], and USA, Germany, France, the Netherlands [exports]. Canada is noise level in comparison.
And outside the EU members and Switzerland the EU has failed to secure a comprehensive trade deal with any of those countries. And the trade deal they are looking to secure with the US comes with so much extra baggage included it is very likely going to fall before it gets anywhere near agreement.
The question has to be asked, how could we actually do any worse than the EU has done?
Here's a question Richard.
I'm sure we could do all kind of trade deals here there and everywhere, but many economists have forecast that there will be a diminution in GDP in the coming years if we leave.
Do you think that in aggregate we would be able, economically, to put ourselves in a better place if we left? It is a bold assumption (and I don't think you are an economist).
I get the Freedom! debate - freedom for UK kettle manufacturers to make kettles howsoever they goddamn please. But aggregate GDP levels? Not so sure.
For coherence, unless you are Patrick Minford, then I would stick with the Freedom thing: It is a price worth paying for our sovereignty to leave the EU.
A diminution in GDP? Or in GDP per Capita?
They have very different impacts on individuals.
Agree. NIESR has a 0.8% per capita diminution in GDP many years out.
And it's an interesting discussion. Do we want to be constantly growing as an economy, keeping track with our neighbours and not-so-close neighbours, or do we want to carry on, each of us slightly less well off (in aggregate moreso) as a country.
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
This is the text from the Lisbon Treaty:
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
Having said that, I believe people will realise very quickly after the vote, if not before, that a straight switch from a comprehensive system to nothing very much at all will deliver a severe economic shock. There will be a scramble to get an EEA agreement in place. Immigration would continues as now - but, hey, if David Cameron can win an election on a dishonest claim about immigration, Leave can win a referendum on the same claim. It's not as if Leave are concerned about the truthfulness of their £350 million a week and Turkey joining the EU claims, after all.
It is unlikely the EU would immediately start a trade war with its major export market. Chances are, however great a Leave win, nothing much will happen in the short term.
Unless and until it becomes clear that there was a specific Islamic motive for the attacks in Orlando isn't it better to hold off on the speculation. Yes in the end it is likely that was the case but it is equally possible this was just a very disturbed individual who happened to be Muslim.
This doesn't mean I look any more favourably on Islam. I still pretty much detest it as a concept and a force in the world. But some people will end up looking really dumb if it turns out this bloke had serious mental issues unconnected with his faith.
I'm always inclined to the mentally unstable theory. I don't think well-adjusted people are inclined to mass murder, even Moslems.
Telegraph reporting he made a pledge of allegiance to ISIS.
That doesn't contradict being mentally unwell, particularly delusions of grandeur.
What happens if England play Northern Ireland regarding the national anthems? Would they play it twice?
It confirms the ridiculous notion of having God Save the Queen as the English anthem, England should have Jerusalem and NI Danny Boy, GSTQ should be saved for GB teams at the Olympics and the British Lions and events in the presence of a royal
Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?
Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.
Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.
This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.
The shooter may be a Muslim but the victims were largely homosexuals, not exactly Trump's demographic
I suspect that simple demographic arithmetic will not be a good guide to this election. Trump is a master at reframing an issue and you may find that it's some of the least likely groups who will be the ones to switch to him.
Trump is not going to win the gay vote, he opposes gay marriage for starters
If you are targeted for murder because of your sexuality you might be more concerned to have a President who will strive to keep you safe.
Not saying that Trump necessarily is that man. But events sometimes change peoples' priorities.
There is no evidence he will keep you safe, his travel ban on Muslims would not have stopped this shooting, the shooter was a US citizen
I've answered that, and the question arises as to whether people from extremist localities, with extremist beliefs should be allowed to immigrate to the US, or any western country.
Unless and until it becomes clear that there was a specific Islamic motive for the attacks in Orlando isn't it better to hold off on the speculation. Yes in the end it is likely that was the case but it is equally possible this was just a very disturbed individual who happened to be Muslim.
This doesn't mean I look any more favourably on Islam. I still pretty much detest it as a concept and a force in the world. But some people will end up looking really dumb if it turns out this bloke had serious mental issues unconnected with his faith.
I'm always inclined to the mentally unstable theory. I don't think well-adjusted people are inclined to mass murder, even Moslems.
Exactly. Witness Hitler's early period. Before he went a bit mad.
Unless and until it becomes clear that there was a specific Islamic motive for the attacks in Orlando isn't it better to hold off on the speculation. Yes in the end it is likely that was the case but it is equally possible this was just a very disturbed individual who happened to be Muslim.
This doesn't mean I look any more favourably on Islam. I still pretty much detest it as a concept and a force in the world. But some people will end up looking really dumb if it turns out this bloke had serious mental issues unconnected with his faith.
I'm always inclined to the mentally unstable theory. I don't think well-adjusted people are inclined to mass murder, even Moslems.
Telegraph reporting he made a pledge of allegiance to ISIS.
That doesn't contradict being mentally unwell, particularly delusions of grandeur.
It's the west's achilles heel. Because no-one here any longer believes in God we think nowhere else does.
Actually, they do. They see it as their mission to bring down the decadent lifestyle of the west. They genuinely believe every single syllable of the Qur'an was dictated to the prophet through the angel Jibril from the mouth of Allah. They are totally opposed to most of what you and I stand for and many of them will stop at nothing to change the west forever.
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.
My guess is that they will find that we've gone off and struck better deals elsewhere.
There's a big wide world with lots of opportunity in it.
Something of a non-sequitur. Whether we've "struck deals elsewhere" is irrelevant to what happens to our trading relationship with the EU, at enforced point of exit. The two aren't mutually exclusive.
It matters enormously in terms of whether we are better off or worse off.
I wonder how long it would take us to sign the deal that the EU have been trying to strike with Canada for seven years if we were free to act unilaterally, for example?
If we started from scratch, and you were in charge, how different would the deal we negotiated with the EU be from the one we have now?
Why would we be starting from scratch?
Review, amend, agree from existing template. You don't tear it up, burn it, eat the evidence and shoot everybody who has been involved and then start again.
What happens if England play Northern Ireland regarding the national anthems? Would they play it twice?
It confirms the ridiculous notion of having God Save the Queen as the English anthem, England should have Jerusalem and NI Danny Boy, GSTQ should be saved for GB teams at the Olympics and the British Lions and events in the presence of a royal
Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?
Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.
Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.
This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.
The shooter may be a Muslim but the victims were largely homosexuals, not exactly Trump's demographic
I suspect that simple demographic arithmetic will not be a good guide to this election. Trump is a master at reframing an issue and you may find that it's some of the least likely groups who will be the ones to switch to him.
Trump is not going to win the gay vote, he opposes gay marriage for starters
If you are targeted for murder because of your sexuality you might be more concerned to have a President who will strive to keep you safe.
Not saying that Trump necessarily is that man. But events sometimes change peoples' priorities.
There is no evidence he will keep you safe, his travel ban on Muslims would not have stopped this shooting, the shooter was a US citizen
I've answered that, and the question arises as to whether people from extremist localities, with extremist beliefs should be allowed to immigrate to the US, or any western country.
No you have not, you said his parents were immigrants, well most Americans are descended from immigrants. Even if you stopped all immigration tomorrow millions of Muslims would still already be in the West and most of them are not terrorists
Comments
It is a bit artificial really because there would be no actual difference between talks under Article 50 and other trade talks except for the fact that at that point we will formally leave the EU (we remain a member until Article 50 talks end).
Gunman's father tells NBC News his son got angry a couple months ago when he saw men kissing at Bayside in Miami
http://www.chron.com/news/article/Texas-Lt-Governor-Dan-Patrick-tweets-reap-what-8076147.php?cmpid=twitter-mobile
https://twitter.com/DanPatrick/status/741963306294902785/photo/1
Fnarr, fnarr
Here's a theory. Trump threatens ISIS in every speech...
Part of their ideology requires "The Final Conflict" to happen soon.
Do they want Trump to win the election? Any other swing states lined up for a spectacular outrage?
I have to wear a suit and tie at my club. Oh the oppressiveness of it. But I sure as hell like the other bits it offers so on goes the suit...
Negotiation, negotiation, negotiation.
You should be upset with those who elected him. As am I. But that is democracy.
Did they hold a referendum to increase the higher rate of tax?
OK so some "Leavers" are adamant that the loss of these favourable terms would be more than compensated for (in the medium term at least) by increased flexibility to make bilateral deals with the rest of the World. It is an argument which may or may not have validity (the main counter being that the increased flexibility would have the downside that the negotiating power would be reduced). But it is just ridiculous to argue that our trading position with the EU will be unaffected for the worse.
And just as an aside - it is contradictory to blithely assert that a deal will be concluded so smoothly with the EU, when one of the main arguments for leaving is that the EU is incredibly sclerotic at negotiating trade deals! Apparently they'll make an exception for the UK, a country where we are assured they have been trying to screw over since 1973.
The question has to be asked, how could we actually do any worse than the EU has done?
Complying with EU regulations when trading with the EU is one thing. Complying with them when we aren't trading with them is excessive.
And I suspect your club doesn't have an ECJ-style chairman who can impose rules upon you.
There are still countries who require castration or sterilisation for trans people before access to treatment is permitted. It's not all kittens and rainbows.
I do agree it's not _as_ bad. They generally don't throw people off buildings.
At which election did we vote with Brown as prospective PM as leader of his party?
That said, it would be nice if people refrained from personal insults. But such is this debate, even more than most.
Good day to all.
An impact on gun sales though - they always increase after such massacres.
Did no one at the party have a gun they could use to shoot back at the terrorist?
Whilst PB does have a more... niche audience than the mainstream, it's less bonkers than an AQ/QT audience.
No, the EU is very un-democratic. We weren't asked to have it and we cannot change the laws. That is my reason for Leave. For the rest, immigration & terrorism are big factors
Trump is not going to win the gay vote, he opposes gay marriage for starters
No, Trump does not - in fact, he is well known in the States as, historically, not caring whether someone is gay or not - his club in Palm Beach was the first to admit gay people when many other clubs did not.
Leaving aside that BrExit is a action, not a campaign group.
VLTC has to do no more nor less than campaign for leaving the EU. Anymore than unilateralists should be telling the government what weapons it should be buying to replace Trident. That is totally and absolutely the problem of the government of the day, they called the referendum, they will be in control after the referendum, if they failed to make plans and preparations for any eventuality for the referendum they called, then they are negligent and deserve a good kicking at the ballot box.
Ironically, it may have been better for the EU if we had had such a vote.
Trump has disavowed any past support for same sex marriage in this campaign.
Unless and until it becomes clear that there was a specific Islamic motive for the attacks in Orlando isn't it better to hold off on the speculation. Yes in the end it is likely that was the case but it is equally possible this was just a very disturbed individual who happened to be Muslim.
This doesn't mean I look any more favourably on Islam. I still pretty much detest it as a concept and a force in the world. But some people will end up looking really dumb if it turns out this bloke had serious mental issues unconnected with his faith.
I'm sure we could do all kind of trade deals here there and everywhere, but many economists have forecast that there will be a diminution in GDP in the coming years if we leave.
Do you think that in aggregate we would be able, economically, to put ourselves in a better place if we left? It is a bold assumption (and I don't think you are an economist).
I get the Freedom! debate - freedom for UK kettle manufacturers to make kettles howsoever they goddamn please. But aggregate GDP levels? Not so sure.
For coherence, unless you are Patrick Minford, then I would stick with the Freedom thing: It is a price worth paying for our sovereignty to leave the EU.
https://twitter.com/studentactivism/status/742006340499935232
Not all gays are for gay marriage. Some may look at images of gays being thrown from buildings and back Trump on a basis of national security.
Farmer Giles here with his shotgun is going to have a hard time shooting 100+ people between reloading after each shot.
Did you see QT on Thursday? Eddie Izzard voiced similarly pro EU garbage from the panel and was roundly ridiculed.
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
I think it's clear. If nothing is agreed after two years and unless all 28 EU countries agree to an extension, the UK would leave with nothing. I am pretty sure the EU would agree a minimal something at one of their all nighters but it puts the country leaving into a particularly weak negotiating position
A diminution in GDP? Or in GDP per Capita?
They have very different impacts on individuals.
There's a large portion of Muslims who also profess to hate the west.
Meanwhile there are significant numbers of Saudis out in Cambodia, Indonesia as well as Thailand, shagging anything that moves and necking back alcohol.
It stinks.
Whether so-called moderates can get a grip I doubt.
Not saying that Trump necessarily is that man. But events sometimes change peoples' priorities.
I also strongly believe that Brexit will lead to a much quicker move to political union in the EU which will help solve the problems the Eurozone has been having with its own economic union. In the medium to long term this will benefit trade as a whole for the world economy.
As an aside - and it is not directly linked to this conversation right now - I dislike the continual reference to GDP instead of to GDP per capita. It is quite possible for GDP to increase whilst GDP per capita drops and that is certainly not good for a country.
We all looked back at the polls then and said that, while the voting intention question underestimated the Conservatives' chance of a majority, the supplementary proxy questions, such as preferring David Cameron to Ed Miliband as PM, did point to a Conservative victory.
Now look at the answers given to supplementary questions - David Cameron and George Osborne generally are scoring lower than Boris et al in questions on the EU Referendum; respondents answer that Brexit will, in likelihood, lower immigration but there is more uncertainty over the economic risks from Remain, etc etc. On the basis of the GE, that should give Remain a great amount of concern.
What is also interesting is what seems like Remain's sudden increase in concern over the past week and whether it has been driven by insights into the postal vote trends. Cast your mind back to last year's GE - there was a very interesting article in Labour Uncut a few days before the election (http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/) that suggested that Ed Miliband's homage to Russell Brand was driven by panic over initial postal vote estimates. At the time, there was uncertainty whether observers could really work out the tally (the consensus, from those who had experience as observers, was that you could) but, in hindsight, it looked prescient.
I am not posting this as a pro-Brexit point, btw - I just think that Leave looks incredible value given what the data is showing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5s5wqmsVTnk
Is being an independent country harmful? Are we incapable of looking after ourselves?
Change? People see and are worried about negative change. Self-Harm?!? The harm is from the EU.
Back in the late 80s & early 90s, I used to think we were so lucky to live in a country that didnt have the problems found elsewhere in the world.
People have had enough and you just dont get it.
I've seen inside Islam and it ain't pretty. Radicals are preaching week in week out against the west, yes, right in the heart of London.
Keep telling ourselves it's only a fringe, it's only lunatics blah blah.
How many atrocities will it take to make people realise that large swathes of Islam hate the west and all we stand for? It's their mission to bring us down.
I quite agree that news media and politicians should always be using GDP per head.
Unless GDP per head increases the country does not get any wealthier.
Increasing productivity is the way to increase our wealth not increasing the population.
And it's an interesting discussion. Do we want to be constantly growing as an economy, keeping track with our neighbours and not-so-close neighbours, or do we want to carry on, each of us slightly less well off (in aggregate moreso) as a country.
LEAKED CABLE: Diplomats believe 1.8 million Kosovans "drop in the ocean" compared to Turkey https://t.co/ZxiSWmWMmp https://t.co/6XpuKXdo2d
Actually, they do. They see it as their mission to bring down the decadent lifestyle of the west. They genuinely believe every single syllable of the Qur'an was dictated to the prophet through the angel Jibril from the mouth of Allah. They are totally opposed to most of what you and I stand for and many of them will stop at nothing to change the west forever.
Call it mental illness if that makes you happier.
Review, amend, agree from existing template. You don't tear it up, burn it, eat the evidence and shoot everybody who has been involved and then start again.
Use the EFTA one as a baseline if you prefer.