As a result of the rioting by Russians last night in Marseille, will UEFA and ultimately FIFA decide that Russia should forfeit its holding of the 2018 World Cup? ...... Thought not.
Will it be handed a suspended sentence specifying that should Russian "supporters" give rise to any further serious disturbances over the next two years, then it will forfeit the hosting of the World Cup? ...... Absolutely no chance.
Russia as it is can't survive.
Every day I pass well-heeled Russians in the street (I have a very basic understanding of their language). I've yet to know of a single Russian who actually has a job here.
I work with lots. They are without exception industrious, well-educated and inevitably end up as staunch Tory voters once they get their passports.
And, I would have thought, staunch Remain supporters. Having gone to the trouble of getting a European passport they won't give up the right to free movement.
A UK Passport grants you visa free access to 173 countries, 28 of those are in the EU.
But not a bureaucracy-free right to settle. That only applies within the EEA.
Ian Harnett of ARS and formerly UBS is warning in the Observer of a Brexit effect of a 30% fall in sterling and a 20% fall in the FTSE. Combined this would have a massive effect on private pensions. No doubt the economically illiterate brexiters will tell us that this will be more than made up for by our free unicorns.
Is he prepared to resign his position without compensation if he is wrong ?
I think they've misreported that poll on an epic scandal. They've given two options for Leave and only one for Remain
You see instead of wasting your time trying to recruit a disinterested student you should have been at your keyboard shaping the narrative before Sunil does. :-)
I'm headed down to London so I can go to Paris for our Brexit contingency planning.
I think they've misreported that poll on an epic scandal. They've given two options for Leave and only one for Remain
You see instead of wasting your time trying to recruit a disinterested student you should have been at your keyboard shaping the narrative before Sunil does. :-)
I'm headed down to London so I can go to Paris for our Brexit contingency planning.
Looking at that poll shouldnt it be Bremain contingency planning ? ;-)
We're only worried by Bremain if Osborne is ditched as Chancellor
Ian Harnett of ARS and formerly UBS is warning in the Observer of a Brexit effect of a 30% fall in sterling and a 20% fall in the FTSE. Combined this would have a massive effect on private pensions. No doubt the economically illiterate brexiters will tell us that this will be more than made up for by our free unicorns.
Is he prepared to resign his position without compensation if he is wrong ?
Ian Harnett of ARS and formerly UBS is warning in the Observer of a Brexit effect of a 30% fall in sterling and a 20% fall in the FTSE. Combined this would have a massive effect on private pensions. No doubt the economically illiterate brexiters will tell us that this will be more than made up for by our free unicorns.
It's not the Brexiters who are economically illiterate. It is those who swallow such statements without thinking about them.
If there really was going to be a 30% fall in sterling and 20% in the FTSE then we'd already have seen a significant effect in the markets, as we're just 11 days from the vote.
In fact, what we've seen is much smaller effects. Those who are closer to the markets will be able to make some comment about what the movements to date suggest for a post-referendum Brexit effect.
WRT elderly people, I've been thinking overnight about that business of 'pensions could be hit' if we leave, and comparing it to the statements (on here & elsewhere) that older people are likely to be voting with an eye to the future for their grandchildren & so on.
I know that, at the time of the last GE, many older people have deprecated the protection of their economic interests at the expense of those of younger people. (The free bus pass being national rather than regional, or free rather (than), say, half-price, is often cited.)
Politicians know that older people turn out & vote; I wonder whether they have over-estimated the need to win over those older voters by economic guarantees?
Cameron this morning talked about pensions being hit etc. It's a bit harsh. Pensioners on the whole have paid a big chunk of money month-on-month, year-on-year for their pensions. It's called National Insurance. State pensions (beyond the basic) are not a state hand-out.
And that paid for their parents to have a, pretty crappy, pension. Working age people are paying for current pensioners to have their triple locked pensions whilst the current workers' pensions are pushed further and further into the future..
I think they've misreported that poll on an epic scandal. They've given two options for Leave and only one for Remain
You see instead of wasting your time trying to recruit a disinterested student you should have been at your keyboard shaping the narrative before Sunil does. :-)
I'm headed down to London so I can go to Paris for our Brexit contingency planning.
Looking at that poll shouldnt it be Bremain contingency planning ? ;-)
We're only worried by Bremain if Osborne is ditched as Chancellor
Ian Harnett of ARS and formerly UBS is warning in the Observer of a Brexit effect of a 30% fall in sterling and a 20% fall in the FTSE. Combined this would have a massive effect on private pensions. No doubt the economically illiterate brexiters will tell us that this will be more than made up for by our free unicorns.
It's not the Brexiters who are economically illiterate. It is those who swallow such statements without thinking about them.
If there really was going to be a 30% fall in sterling and 20% in the FTSE then we'd already have seen a significant effect in the markets, as we're just 11 days from the vote.
In fact, what we've seen is much smaller effects. Those who are closer to the markets will be able to make some comment about what the movements to date suggest for a post-referendum Brexit effect.
I believe 80% of FTSE 100 companies' income is derived from overseas.
Trump out to 4.6 in case anyone is interested. Apparently the regular Trump price updater only does updates when it is shortening.
There's been a massive over-reaction to a slight drift in the polls back to Clinton [or even due to a hiatus in the frequency of polls]
PEC gives Trump a 35% chance, implying sub 3.0 odds as fair value. and concede his chance may be even higher.
From the state polls, a barely 1% swing to Trump would give him the keys to the White House.
If today's tragic events push Florida into his column I'd expect a sharp movement back on BF.
What is it about Orlando, btw? Only yesterday there was the senseless murder of the pop singer at a concert. Were these incidents related?
Anyhow Trump has two public meetings in NH later today, so we await his comments...
Yes, the slight drift showing Hilary winning Kentucky in a landslide.
I think you mean Kansas. It wasn't a landslide, and no-one seems to be taking it seriously, anyhow. A very odd poll, and on its own it means next to nothing.
Ian Harnett of ARS and formerly UBS is warning in the Observer of a Brexit effect of a 30% fall in sterling and a 20% fall in the FTSE. Combined this would have a massive effect on private pensions. No doubt the economically illiterate brexiters will tell us that this will be more than made up for by our free unicorns.
It's not the Brexiters who are economically illiterate. It is those who swallow such statements without thinking about them.
If there really was going to be a 30% fall in sterling and 20% in the FTSE then we'd already have seen a significant effect in the markets, as we're just 11 days from the vote.
In fact, what we've seen is much smaller effects. Those who are closer to the markets will be able to make some comment about what the movements to date suggest for a post-referendum Brexit effect.
Incase you have noticed the pound has already fallen by more than 10%.
"So OGH knows in advance what the next polls will say. With a sweep of his wand, our wizard is betting all on old phone technology to help Remain in the last few days. Well I say that's all very weird."
"So OGH knows in advance what the next polls will say. With a sweep of his wand, our wizard is betting all on old phone technology to help Remain in the last few days. Well I say that's all very weird."
Is it as weird as a fire at Seaworld?
If there has been a shift to Leave, you would still expect the online polls to be lower for Leave, given the modal difference.
"The suspected Islamic extremist who killed about 20 people after taking party-goers hostage inside a gay club in Orlando has been identified. Law enforcement sources have identified the shooter, who was wielding an assault rifle and a handgun, as US citizen Omar Mateen, from Port St. Lucie in Florida."
Ian Harnett of ARS and formerly UBS is warning in the Observer of a Brexit effect of a 30% fall in sterling and a 20% fall in the FTSE. Combined this would have a massive effect on private pensions. No doubt the economically illiterate brexiters will tell us that this will be more than made up for by our free unicorns.
It's not the Brexiters who are economically illiterate. It is those who swallow such statements without thinking about them.
If there really was going to be a 30% fall in sterling and 20% in the FTSE then we'd already have seen a significant effect in the markets, as we're just 11 days from the vote.
In fact, what we've seen is much smaller effects. Those who are closer to the markets will be able to make some comment about what the movements to date suggest for a post-referendum Brexit effect.
Incase you have noticed the pound has already fallen by more than 10%.
Against what? Anyone who is economically or financially literate understands you have to have a baseline. Saying 'it's fallen more than 10%' is almost meaningless.
Carney did previously say the pound had fallen 9% against its November high and that half of that was attributable to the referendum.
It isn't clear though why November should be the baseline. That wasn't the month the referendum was announced, nor even one in which it became significantly more likely.
"The suspected Islamic extremist who killed about 20 people after taking party-goers hostage inside a gay club in Orlando has been identified. Law enforcement sources have identified the shooter, who was wielding an assault rifle and a handgun, as US citizen Omar Mateen, from Port St. Lucie in Florida."
"The suspected Islamic extremist who killed about 20 people after taking party-goers hostage inside a gay club in Orlando has been identified. Law enforcement sources have identified the shooter, who was wielding an assault rifle and a handgun, as US citizen Omar Mateen, from Port St. Lucie in Florida."
For the record that Express report is complete and utter garbage. Don't bet on it or think it is useful.
After the referendum is out of the way, can we continue with this cross-party consensus by agreeing that in the Express all reporting of political issues generally is complete and utter garbage?
"The suspected Islamic extremist who killed about 20 people after taking party-goers hostage inside a gay club in Orlando has been identified. Law enforcement sources have identified the shooter, who was wielding an assault rifle and a handgun, as US citizen Omar Mateen, from Port St. Lucie in Florida."
Why does this matter for a referendum question since there are leavers and remainers on both the left and the right ? Socio-economic weighting I could see.
Ian Harnett of ARS and formerly UBS is warning in the Observer of a Brexit effect of a 30% fall in sterling and a 20% fall in the FTSE. Combined this would have a massive effect on private pensions. No doubt the economically illiterate brexiters will tell us that this will be more than made up for by our free unicorns.
It's not the Brexiters who are economically illiterate. It is those who swallow such statements without thinking about them.
If there really was going to be a 30% fall in sterling and 20% in the FTSE then we'd already have seen a significant effect in the markets, as we're just 11 days from the vote.
In fact, what we've seen is much smaller effects. Those who are closer to the markets will be able to make some comment about what the movements to date suggest for a post-referendum Brexit effect.
I believe 80% of FTSE 100 companies' income is derived from overseas.
The issue I have with people trotting out these numbers is...I don't see them doing it very often. People are worried, and that's fine - I worry too.
However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).
I'm no expert, but investment income is around 65% of my overall, so I follow things reasonably closely. I'd expect a lot of volatility on the news of Brexit (it might move up a little if we got an _accurate_ poll that was like the D. Express nonsense).
However, remember what article 50 actually says:
“Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it. A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.”
Nothing happens on June 24th. We'd leave the EU proper sometime in June 2018 at the earliest. I don't want to minimise the economic impact - I'm expecting something like the IFS report (which includes a range of outcomes, pick yer poison).
Why does this matter for a referendum question since there are leavers and remainers on both the left and the right ? Socio-economic weighting I could see.
There's a feeling online polls contain too many Kippers. So you have to weight accordingly.
Why does this matter for a referendum question since there are leavers and remainers on both the left and the right ? Socio-economic weighting I could see.
There's a feeling online polls contain too many Kippers. So you have to weight accordingly.
Yougov in the election had UKIP on 12%/ 13% - and that is what they got. In fact everyone other than Survation did.
I would say the problem with online polling is that those people who register are more committed to the cause (any cause) and hence less likely to switch than other voters.
Why does this matter for a referendum question since there are leavers and remainers on both the left and the right ? Socio-economic weighting I could see.
There's a feeling online polls contain too many Kippers. So you have to weight accordingly.
The problem with the whole packing online polls with activists meme is it makes the whole thing worthless, partly because fundamentally you can't weight an unrepresentative sample into a representative one, and also because if the activists were there to boost a poll, they would probably lie about past voting behaviour.
Why does this matter for a referendum question since there are leavers and remainers on both the left and the right ? Socio-economic weighting I could see.
There's a feeling online polls contain too many Kippers. So you have to weight accordingly.
Yougov in the election had UKIP on 12%/ 13% - and that is what they got. In fact everyone other than Survation did.
I would say the problem with online polling is that those people who register are more committed to the cause (any cause) and hence less likely to switch than other voters.
Not true. A lot of the largest errors for UKIP at the GE were online polls overestimating UKIP.
Why does this matter for a referendum question since there are leavers and remainers on both the left and the right ? Socio-economic weighting I could see.
There's a feeling online polls contain too many Kippers. So you have to weight accordingly.
Yougov in the election had UKIP on 12%/ 13% - and that is what they got. In fact everyone other than Survation did.
I would say the problem with online polling is that those people who register are more committed to the cause (any cause) and hence less likely to switch than other voters.
Not true. A lot of the largest errors for UKIP at the GE were online polls overestimating UKIP.
Terrible news in Florida. Like the Bataclan, indiscriminately killing young people who are out enjoying themselves is truly disgusting.
0/T
Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.
The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.
This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.
The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.
Why does this matter for a referendum question since there are leavers and remainers on both the left and the right ? Socio-economic weighting I could see.
There's a feeling online polls contain too many Kippers. So you have to weight accordingly.
Yougov in the election had UKIP on 12%/ 13% - and that is what they got. In fact everyone other than Survation did.
I would say the problem with online polling is that those people who register are more committed to the cause (any cause) and hence less likely to switch than other voters.
Not true. A lot of the largest errors for UKIP at the GE were online polls overestimating UKIP.
For the record that Express report is complete and utter garbage. Don't bet on it or think it is useful.
Come on TSE, you are getting tetchy.
You have done a cracking job as editor and introduced a bit of mischief and fun back into posts wbich has reflected in the comments.
Dont let tiredness get to you in the last week.
What you should be doing is analysing that poll to find out how many of the Brexiters also think that the EU assasinated Princess Di taking orders from Bilderburg.
Terrible news in Florida. Like the Bataclan, indiscriminately killing young people who are out enjoying themselves is truly disgusting.
0/T
Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.
The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.
This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.
The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.
I hope you'll let us know which of us racist, which is ignorant, which is nationalist and which is all three.
For the record that Express report is complete and utter garbage. Don't bet on it or think it is useful.
Come on TSE, you are getting tetchy.
You have done a cracking job as editor and introduced a bit of mischief and fun back into posts wbich has reflected in the comments.
Dont let tiredness get to you in the last week.
What you should be doing is analysing that poll to find out how many of the Brexiters also think that the EU assasinated Princess Di taking orders from Bilderburg.
To be fair to TSE, the Express does talk a lot of bollocks.
Packing online with activists for the referendum does not make sense to me.
The long term sign ups will have been to well known political pollsters published in the press, with the sign up based upon being activist Tory, Labour etc.
It will not have been on a Leave or Remain basis.
Additionally, ORB and BMG seem to derive their panels from market research databases which should be purer.
UKIP polled 15% across GB (less Scotland and London) last May. The Tories were over 40%.
England and Wales (less Scotland/London) is 55-45 "right wing".
"The suspected Islamic extremist who killed about 20 people after taking party-goers hostage inside a gay club in Orlando has been identified. Law enforcement sources have identified the shooter, who was wielding an assault rifle and a handgun, as US citizen Omar Mateen, from Port St. Lucie in Florida."
However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).
I do remember the pound collapsing then, yes. I think at the time Thingy's predecessor was still in charge at the ECB and pursuing a strong Euro strategy and the UK had started QE (happy to be contradicted if I have the timings wrong). Remember the Greece black hole wasn't revealed until 2009(?) and Sarkozy was still boasting it was an Anglo-American problem...silly him.
The point being that that collapse was a known side effect of a deliberately pursued strategy. A post-Brexit collapse will be the result of an outcome not chosen by the UK government, as it pivots from a pro-economy to an anti-immigration anti-economy stance: hieraeth and heimat instead of pennies and pounds.
Parenthetically I think the GBP collapse will be greater and/or longer than you think. And since Soros is piling into gold, he agrees with me...
"The suspected Islamic extremist who killed about 20 people after taking party-goers hostage inside a gay club in Orlando has been identified. Law enforcement sources have identified the shooter, who was wielding an assault rifle and a handgun, as US citizen Omar Mateen, from Port St. Lucie in Florida."
Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?
Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.
Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.
This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.
The shooter may be a Muslim but the victims were largely homosexuals, not exactly Trump's demographic it was a tragedy and could equally again open up the question on gun laws too, Trump has been endorsed by the NRA but I doubt it has any impact on the election
Terrible news in Florida. Like the Bataclan, indiscriminately killing young people who are out enjoying themselves is truly disgusting.
0/T
Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.
The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.
This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.
The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.
I hope you'll let us know which of us racist, which is ignorant, which is nationalist and which is all three.
You tell me which of you are racist. You Brexit people are on the same side as the English hooligans rampaging through Marseille singing fuck off Europe, the EDL, the BNP, George Gallaway, revolutionary communists, Farage. You're riding the wave of anti immigrant rhetoric and populism.
Terrible news in Florida. Like the Bataclan, indiscriminately killing young people who are out enjoying themselves is truly disgusting.
0/T
Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.
The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.
This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.
The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.
I hope you'll let us know which of us racist, which is ignorant, which is nationalist and which is all three.
You tell me which of you are racist. You Brexit people are on the same side as the English hooligans rampaging through Marseille singing fuck off Europe, the EDL, the BNP, George Gallaway, revolutionary communists, Farage. You're riding the wave of anti immigrant rhetoric and populism.
Do you conssider Democrats to be Homophobic as one of them just shot 50 people in a gay nightclub?
Packing online with activists for the referendum does not make sense to me.
The long term sign ups will have been to well known political pollsters published in the press, with the sign up based upon being activist Tory, Labour etc.
It will not have been on a Leave or Remain basis.
Additionally, ORB and BMG seem to derive their panels from market research databases which should be purer.
UKIP polled 15% across GB (less Scotland and London) last May. The Tories were over 40%.
England and Wales (less Scotland/London) is 55-45 "right wing".
The Conservatives were nowhere near 40% last May . They were much nearer 30% .
"The suspected Islamic extremist who killed about 20 people after taking party-goers hostage inside a gay club in Orlando has been identified. Law enforcement sources have identified the shooter, who was wielding an assault rifle and a handgun, as US citizen Omar Mateen, from Port St. Lucie in Florida."
"The suspected Islamic extremist who killed about 20 people after taking party-goers hostage inside a gay club in Orlando has been identified. Law enforcement sources have identified the shooter, who was wielding an assault rifle and a handgun, as US citizen Omar Mateen, from Port St. Lucie in Florida."
"The suspected Islamic extremist who killed about 20 people after taking party-goers hostage inside a gay club in Orlando has been identified. Law enforcement sources have identified the shooter, who was wielding an assault rifle and a handgun, as US citizen Omar Mateen, from Port St. Lucie in Florida."
I honestly don't see why the fact he might be a democrat is important.
Imagine if Copeland had been a Labour Party activist and reconsider the question
It's one of those trivial facts that spoils all the stereotypes. It seemed pretty clear from very shortly after the horror ended that the shooter was of a politically awkward background. That he's a registered Democrat, a Muslim and just killed or wounded over 100 gays...
However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).
I do remember the pound collapsing then, yes. I think at the time Thingy's predecessor was still in charge at the ECB and pursuing a strong Euro strategy and the UK had started QE (happy to be contradicted if I have the timings wrong). Remember the Greece black hole wasn't revealed until 2009(?) and Sarkozy was still boasting it was an Anglo-American problem...silly him.
The point being that that collapse was a known side effect of a deliberately pursued strategy. A post-Brexit collapse will be the result of an outcome not chosen by the UK government, as it pivots from a pro-economy to an anti-immigration anti-economy stance: hieraeth and heimat instead of pennies and pounds.
Parenthetically I think the GBP collapse will be greater and/or longer than you think. And since Soros is piling into gold, he agrees with me...
I'm just going off the IFS report. However, ultimately it's all guesswork, no matter how well informed.
One of the most influential papers I ever read was written by a CIA analyst (this was in my secret squirrel days). He was trying to analyse why the Western intelligence community had never actually predicted any of the great seismic shifts - from the Cuban missile crisis to the Arab spring. It really brought home to me how odd the world is, and how inherently unpredictable humans, en masse, are.
I'd have more confidence all round if the economists were predicting when the next recession will be - they're still much better at fitting to the curve than predicting it.
Terrible news in Florida. Like the Bataclan, indiscriminately killing young people who are out enjoying themselves is truly disgusting.
0/T
Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.
The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.
This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.
The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.
I hope you'll let us know which of us racist, which is ignorant, which is nationalist and which is all three.
You tell me which of you are racist. You Brexit people are on the same side as the English hooligans rampaging through Marseille singing fuck off Europe, the EDL, the BNP, George Gallaway, revolutionary communists, Farage. You're riding the wave of anti immigrant rhetoric and populism.
And you have got former IRA terrorists on your side.
We have all got unusual bedfellows in this campaign, it doesn’t mean we are all mindless thugs and nutters.
Packing online with activists for the referendum does not make sense to me.
The long term sign ups will have been to well known political pollsters published in the press, with the sign up based upon being activist Tory, Labour etc.
It will not have been on a Leave or Remain basis.
Additionally, ORB and BMG seem to derive their panels from market research databases which should be purer.
UKIP polled 15% across GB (less Scotland and London) last May. The Tories were over 40%.
England and Wales (less Scotland/London) is 55-45 "right wing".
The Conservatives were nowhere near 40% last May . They were much nearer 30% .
37.8% Nationally IIRC - which is only closer to 30% in the minds of the Left.
A packed nightclub, he seems to have been in there for a few hours. There is a suggestion he also had a suicide vest, but was taken out by the SWAT team before he could detonate. Could have been even worse.
The death toll is horrifying, I can only think of the Utoya shootings in Norway which were a larger number.
The club was near closing time apparently and still pretty full. Guess the enclosed space and darkness would've made it possible to just spray rounds about.
Apparently there was a single cop stationed there as per usual and he helped get 30 out.
Terrible news in Florida. Like the Bataclan, indiscriminately killing young people who are out enjoying themselves is truly disgusting.
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Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.
The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.
This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.
The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.
Terrible news in Florida. Like the Bataclan, indiscriminately killing young people who are out enjoying themselves is truly disgusting.
0/T
Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.
The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.
This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.
The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.
I hope you'll let us know which of us racist, which is ignorant, which is nationalist and which is all three.
You tell me which of you are racist. You Brexit people are on the same side as the English hooligans rampaging through Marseille singing fuck off Europe, the EDL, the BNP, George Gallaway, revolutionary communists, Farage. You're riding the wave of anti immigrant rhetoric and populism.
You know perfectly well that just because idiots support something does not mean everyone who supports the same is an idiot, if their reason for supporting it is not the same. Personally I don't care about immigration at all, so don't need to make any 'it's not racist to care about immigration' comments as a defence. A couple of racists I'm unfortunately related to are voting Remain due to economic shock fears - perhaps not representative, but even racists are not a homogeneous mass.
And in any case the problem remains - if you think anyone who supports Leaving is a racist, which is your implied position, you are saying 45-50% of the population are racist. Does that really seem probable to you?
That is not what the poll was about 'after giving voters the option of a choice of free trade agreements with the EU.
It found 52 per cent chose to leave the EU, with only 33 per cent choosing to keep the status quo.
Despite there being less than two weeks before the crucial referendum, on June 23, a further 15 per cent said they still didn't know.
Of those who voted to leave the majority, 39 per cent, said that Britain should have some sort of Free Trade Agreement with the EU, similar to the one currently enjoyed between the US, Canada and Mexico. A further 13 per cent said they would accept the off-the-shelf-membership of EFTA, the European Free Trade Association with a single market.'
So as TSE says a garbage poll which just adds up support for free trade agreements, not a straight In or Out poll at all
Packing online with activists for the referendum does not make sense to me.
The long term sign ups will have been to well known political pollsters published in the press, with the sign up based upon being activist Tory, Labour etc.
It will not have been on a Leave or Remain basis.
Additionally, ORB and BMG seem to derive their panels from market research databases which should be purer.
UKIP polled 15% across GB (less Scotland and London) last May. The Tories were over 40%.
England and Wales (less Scotland/London) is 55-45 "right wing".
The Conservatives were nowhere near 40% last May . They were much nearer 30% .
37.8% Nationally IIRC - which is only closer to 30% in the minds of the Left.
We are talking about May local elections last month not a year ago .
Terrible news in Florida. Like the Bataclan, indiscriminately killing young people who are out enjoying themselves is truly disgusting.
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Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.
The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.
This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.
The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.
I hope you'll let us know which of us racist, which is ignorant, which is nationalist and which is all three.
You tell me which of you are racist. You Brexit people are on the same side as the English hooligans rampaging through Marseille singing fuck off Europe, the EDL, the BNP, George Gallaway, revolutionary communists, Farage. You're riding the wave of anti immigrant rhetoric and populism.
Rule number one of effective discussion. Do not attribute motive to the other side. Deal with what they say and, more importantly, what they do. tyson fails class 101.
In tyson's defence, many on here, on both sides of the debate, have failed that test. Mr Nabavi and Mr Meeks come to mind as frequent offenders.
But then, most offenders I suspect are not on here to discuss, more to opine or vent.
Packing online with activists for the referendum does not make sense to me.
The long term sign ups will have been to well known political pollsters published in the press, with the sign up based upon being activist Tory, Labour etc.
It will not have been on a Leave or Remain basis.
Additionally, ORB and BMG seem to derive their panels from market research databases which should be purer.
UKIP polled 15% across GB (less Scotland and London) last May. The Tories were over 40%.
England and Wales (less Scotland/London) is 55-45 "right wing".
The Conservatives were nowhere near 40% last May . They were much nearer 30% .
The Tories were over 40% in England and Wales (less London)
"The suspected Islamic extremist who killed about 20 people after taking party-goers hostage inside a gay club in Orlando has been identified. Law enforcement sources have identified the shooter, who was wielding an assault rifle and a handgun, as US citizen Omar Mateen, from Port St. Lucie in Florida."
Terrible news in Florida. Like the Bataclan, indiscriminately killing young people who are out enjoying themselves is truly disgusting.
0/T
Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.
The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.
This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.
The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.
I hope you'll let us know which of us racist, which is ignorant, which is nationalist and which is all three.
You tell me which of you are racist. You Brexit people are on the same side as the English hooligans rampaging through Marseille singing fuck off Europe, the EDL, the BNP, George Gallaway, revolutionary communists, Farage. You're riding the wave of anti immigrant rhetoric and populism.
Rule number one of effective discussion. Do not attribute motive to the other side. Deal with what they say and, more importantly, what they do. tyson fails class 101.
In tyson's defence, many on here, on both sides of the debate, have failed that test. Mr Nabavi and Mr Meeks come to mind as frequent offenders.
But then, most offenders I suspect are not on here to discuss, more to opine or vent.
One of the most influential papers I ever read was written by a CIA analyst (this was in my secret squirrel days). He was trying to analyse why the Western intelligence community had never actually predicted any of the great seismic shifts - from the Cuban missile crisis to the Arab spring. It really brought home to me how odd the world is, and how inherently unpredictable humans, en masse, are.
I'd have more confidence all round if the economists were predicting when the next recession will be - they're still much better at fitting to the curve than predicting it.
Amen. Things that are stable will change, things that change will settle down, and ultimately all we can hope for is that tomorrow is a bit better than today...
Not the same as saying he will resign or lose the leadership and he is the elected Prime Minister who will have just won a referendum, Tory members can say what they like, the UK electorate will have voted to Remain and the PM will still be a Remainer as a consequence
Whether or not he faces a leadership election is up to Conservative MPs. Who wins that leadership election is up to Conservative Party members.
There has to be a vote of confidence by MPs first before a leadership election, as a majority of Tory MPs back Remain if Remain win Cameron would win that vote of confidence comfortably
Comments
3 options, status quo, leaving and "leave with a free trade association". They've put the second two together
And
also no political weighting
You sure it's not actually in Vichy?
It's not the Brexiters who are economically illiterate. It is those who swallow such statements without thinking about them.
If there really was going to be a 30% fall in sterling and 20% in the FTSE then we'd already have seen a significant effect in the markets, as we're just 11 days from the vote.
In fact, what we've seen is much smaller effects. Those who are closer to the markets will be able to make some comment about what the movements to date suggest for a post-referendum Brexit effect.
There is no pension pot.
50 for Hales now.
Disappointed we haven't seen a 'Diana would have voted Leave' headline yet.
Phrase was coined in 1814, so it doesn't apply to TSE obviously.
If there has been a shift to Leave, you would still expect the online polls to be lower for Leave, given the modal difference.
Law enforcement sources have identified the shooter, who was wielding an assault rifle and a handgun, as US citizen Omar Mateen, from Port St. Lucie in Florida."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3637414/Everyone-running-Gunman-bursts-gay-nightclub-Florida-shoots-20-people-taking-hostages.html#ixzz4BNDPKOBZ
Against what? Anyone who is economically or financially literate understands you have to have a baseline. Saying 'it's fallen more than 10%' is almost meaningless.
Carney did previously say the pound had fallen 9% against its November high and that half of that was attributable to the referendum.
It isn't clear though why November should be the baseline. That wasn't the month the referendum was announced, nor even one in which it became significantly more likely.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkwW6v5UUAEbp4T.jpg
https://vimeo.com/170323051
Mateen may have been on a watch list.
So at five wickets down we now have the England openers batting together, Hales and Cook.
However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).
I'm no expert, but investment income is around 65% of my overall, so I follow things reasonably closely. I'd expect a lot of volatility on the news of Brexit (it might move up a little if we got an _accurate_ poll that was like the D. Express nonsense).
However, remember what article 50 actually says:
“Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it. A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.”
Nothing happens on June 24th. We'd leave the EU proper sometime in June 2018 at the earliest. I don't want to minimise the economic impact - I'm expecting something like the IFS report (which includes a range of outcomes, pick yer poison).
I would say the problem with online polling is that those people who register are more committed to the cause (any cause) and hence less likely to switch than other voters.
50 DEAD, 50 in hospital
Is it a solitary terrorist in Orlando, or a group? This morning I think it was reported it was one man.
Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.
This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/10/so-were-there-really-shy-kippers/
Nothing Religion of Peace to see here. Move along, citizen.
0/T
Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.
The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.
This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.
The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.
You have done a cracking job as editor and introduced a bit of mischief and fun back into posts wbich has reflected in the comments.
Dont let tiredness get to you in the last week.
What you should be doing is analysing that poll to find out how many of the Brexiters also think that the EU assasinated Princess Di taking orders from Bilderburg.
Vote Leave.
Moral cowards
I don't trust a word they say.
The long term sign ups will have been to well known political pollsters published in the press, with the sign up based upon being activist Tory, Labour etc.
It will not have been on a Leave or Remain basis.
Additionally, ORB and BMG seem to derive their panels from market research databases which should be purer.
UKIP polled 15% across GB (less Scotland and London) last May. The Tories were over 40%.
England and Wales (less Scotland/London) is 55-45 "right wing".
https://a3-images.myspacecdn.com/images03/33/d02fbf461982462ead7dc6e4c2b8bf0d/300x300.jpg
The point being that that collapse was a known side effect of a deliberately pursued strategy. A post-Brexit collapse will be the result of an outcome not chosen by the UK government, as it pivots from a pro-economy to an anti-immigration anti-economy stance: hieraeth and heimat instead of pennies and pounds.
Parenthetically I think the GBP collapse will be greater and/or longer than you think. And since Soros is piling into gold, he agrees with me...
Surprised one man managed to kill so many.
And there will be some 'isolated, lone wolf' stuff lobbed in for good measure.
People that try to conflate these issues are trying to do it for their own purposes.
One of the most influential papers I ever read was written by a CIA analyst (this was in my secret squirrel days). He was trying to analyse why the Western intelligence community had never actually predicted any of the great seismic shifts - from the Cuban missile crisis to the Arab spring. It really brought home to me how odd the world is, and how inherently unpredictable humans, en masse, are.
I'd have more confidence all round if the economists were predicting when the next recession will be - they're still much better at fitting to the curve than predicting it.
We have all got unusual bedfellows in this campaign, it doesn’t mean we are all mindless thugs and nutters.
The death toll is horrifying, I can only think of the Utoya shootings in Norway which were a larger number.
Apparently there was a single cop stationed there as per usual and he helped get 30 out.
Same old shit different day. LOL you do so like to spout bollocks :-)
And in any case the problem remains - if you think anyone who supports Leaving is a racist, which is your implied position, you are saying 45-50% of the population are racist. Does that really seem probable to you?
It found 52 per cent chose to leave the EU, with only 33 per cent choosing to keep the status quo.
Despite there being less than two weeks before the crucial referendum, on June 23, a further 15 per cent said they still didn't know.
Of those who voted to leave the majority, 39 per cent, said that Britain should have some sort of Free Trade Agreement with the EU, similar to the one currently enjoyed between the US, Canada and Mexico. A further 13 per cent said they would accept the off-the-shelf-membership of EFTA, the European Free Trade Association with a single market.'
So as TSE says a garbage poll which just adds up support for free trade agreements, not a straight In or Out poll at all
In tyson's defence, many on here, on both sides of the debate, have failed that test. Mr Nabavi and Mr Meeks come to mind as frequent offenders.
But then, most offenders I suspect are not on here to discuss, more to opine or vent.