Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.
I'm assuming that unless Remain win big (70:30?), that Mr Cameron will be replaced by a Leave MP shortly after the result comes in.
I think the Cons would then be well placed to convert Leave-Labour supporters.
Cameron will stay if Remain win, he will only be gone if they lose. If it is a narrow Remain though Osborne will not succeed him.
A narrow Remain win, will still mean Con voters supported Leave 2:1.
There's already enough bad blood in the parliamentary Conservative Party to trigger a leadership contest. To avert that Remain has to be a big win.
Mr. HyFD, we know from the last GE that polling companies will produce polls that suit their narrative, and suppress results that do not. We also know that currently those same polling companies are currently changing their methodology from week to week (see diverse posts on here). Frankly, I think that US alsatian owned by one of the US Tims, or indeed my own cat, is a more reliable indicator than YouGov.
Polling methodology or not it is absurd to suggest that Cameron resign if he has just won the referendum, that will only occur if it is a Leave vote and the voters clearly recognise that and you are just quibbling at the margins to dispute a poll result which is a statement of the blatantly obvious!!
The mass murder in the club in Orlando is feared to be a politically/religiously inspired attack and not just a singular nut-job with or without anti gay prejudices.
It can't be connected with the murder of the "The Voice" singer? That was also Orlando wasn't it?
Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:
"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift" "Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift" "The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"
have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".
To be fair, did anyone really think Sarah Wollaston was going to shift votes? I thought the main argument was whether her conversion was genuine, or if it was for "career reasons".
That said, your right that the Obama intervention showed just how little the "Remain" campaigners understand voters. Brits do NOT like being bossed around by the US.
Any yet both Wollaston and Obama gave forth an entire day of frenzied gloating from our friends for Remain, anyone would have thought a poll with 80% Remain had just been unveiled.
Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:
"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift" "Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift" "The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"
have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".
To be fair, did anyone really think Sarah Wollaston was going to shift votes? I thought the main argument was whether her conversion was genuine, or if it was for "career reasons".
That said, your right that the Obama intervention showed just how little the "Remain" campaigners understand voters. Brits do NOT like being bossed around by the US.
Trump has endorsed Brexit, so it is which side of the US you want to be bossed around by, Obama or Trump!
To my knowledge Trump hasn't said that if we remain we will be sent to the back of the queue...
That said, i REALLY hope Trump stays away til after the refendum.
Can I just say I really don't mind Trump? I hope he wins in November.
As a result of the rioting by Russians last night in Marseille, will UEFA and ultimately FIFA decide that Russia should forfeit its holding of the 2018 World Cup? ...... Thought not.
Will it be handed a suspended sentence specifying that should Russian "supporters" give rise to any further serious disturbances over the next two years, then it will forfeit the hosting of the World Cup? ...... Absolutely no chance.
The mass murder in the club in Orlando is feared to be a politically/religiously inspired attack and not just a singular nut-job with or without anti gay prejudices.
The FBI are already being quoted as suspecting the Religion of Peace. So with our best Politically Correct hats on we need to ignore this story for the moment.
The contradictions on this are liable to cause the uber politically correct to spontaneously combust
So OGH knows in advance what the next polls will say. With a sweep of his wand, our wizard is betting all on old phone technology to help Remain in the last few days. Well I say that's all very weird.
Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:
"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift" "Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift" "The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"
have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".
To be fair, did anyone really think Sarah Wollaston was going to shift votes? I thought the main argument was whether her conversion was genuine, or if it was for "career reasons".
That said, your right that the Obama intervention showed just how little the "Remain" campaigners understand voters. Brits do NOT like being bossed around by the US.
The BBC certainly had Sarah Wollaston as their main website story.
Obama might have had an effect if he'd said "This is for the British people to decide and whatever the outcome our two countries will remain close friends and allies but overall I think it might be in Britain's best interest to remain in the EU."
Instead we had his 'Back of the queue for trade, front of the queue for military casualties' arrogance with Cameron smirking behind him.
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle
I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.
Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.
Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.
So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?
Quod erat demonstrandum
Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days
While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.
I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.
Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom
Define 'landslide'
Remain with 65/70 % of the vote.
Most of the staff of the two universities live here, you've got most of the NHS staff from Sheffield's many hospitals living here too.
UKIP polled 6 and a bit per cent last year.
I'd be worried if it wasn't a Remain landslide here.
A marginal result won't be good. If there are places voting 66/33 the other way to whatever the result is it'll be tough.
Are the Universities there any good?
The fact TSE and his fellow travellers see a need to use valuable volunteers canvassing and trying to get out the vote somewhere like that which should be remain slam dunk tells you more about where this is going than 100 opinion polls.
Don't be an idiot. I've posted today and on other days that we've spent most of our time in the other Sheffield seats.
As I posted last week, I spent most of last week in West Yorkshire for Remain and will be spending all my campaigning activity there for the rest of the campaign.
Clearly you've never fought a successful campaign. You never take your supporters for granted.
Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.
I'm assuming that unless Remain win big (70:30?), that Mr Cameron will be re
Cameron will stay if Remain win, he will only be gone if they lose. If it is a narrow Remain though Osborne will not succeed him.
A narrow Remain win, will still mean Con voters supported Leave 2:1.
There's already enough bad blood in the parliamentary Conservative Party to trigger a leadership contest. To avert that Remain has to be a big win.
I read an article earlier in the week, that in a snippet towards the end, mentioned that Conservative MPs had been asked to sign a letter saying that Mr Cameron would not face an immediate leadership contest after the referendum. They reportedly couldn't get anyone to sign it, so it was dropped.
He may face a contest but he will only lose it if it is Leave, he will probably have resigned anyway, if it is Remain he will win it comfortably
Not the same as saying he will resign or lose the leadership and he is the elected Prime Minister who will have just won a referendum, Tory members can say what they like, the UK electorate will have voted to Remain and the PM will still be a Remainer as a consequence
I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??
You said exactly the same last night and I will give exactly the same response, this is New Labour people, Corbyn and those around him will do nothing more than shrug if it is Leave
Well, perhaps, but (also as I said last night) this referendum is showing that the New Labour "moderates" are just as willing to indulge their fringe obsessions as the hard left are.
Whereas the hard left get all obsessed about nuclear weapons which are probably never going to get used anyway, the "moderates" have an inexplicable fetish for staying in the EU above all else, despite it having very little impact one way or the other on normal people's lives. Both are just "virtue signalling" for different ideologies: the hard left want to show how right-on and pacifist they are, while the "moderates" want to parrot all the slogans about being "outward-looking" and "engaged with the world". The likes of Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna have been practically frothing at the mouth with horror at Brexit.
Meanwhile, the wait for a return to a proper Labour Party, which puts practical measures to help the poorest people as by FAR their top priority, with all other issues being secondary, goes on.
Chuka got very close to calling Leavers racists yesterday.
Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:
"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift" "Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift" "The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"
have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".
To be fair, did anyone really think Sarah Wollaston was going to shift votes? I thought the main argument was whether her conversion was genuine, or if it was for "career reasons".
That said, your right that the Obama intervention showed just how little the "Remain" campaigners understand voters. Brits do NOT like being bossed around by the US.
Trump has endorsed Brexit, so it is which side of the US you want to be bossed around by, Obama or Trump!
To my knowledge Trump hasn't said that if we remain we will be sent to the back of the queue...
That said, i REALLY hope Trump stays away til after the refendum.
Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:
"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift" "Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift" "The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"
have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".
To be fair, did anyone really think Sarah Wollaston was going to shift votes? I thought the main argument was whether her conversion was genuine, or if it was for "career reasons".
That said, your right that the Obama intervention showed just how little the "Remain" campaigners understand voters. Brits do NOT like being bossed around by the US.
Trump has endorsed Brexit, so it is which side of the US you want to be bossed around by, Obama or Trump!
To my knowledge Trump hasn't said that if we remain we will be sent to the back of the queue...
That said, i REALLY hope Trump stays away til after the refendum.
Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:
"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift" "Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift" "The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"
have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".
To be fair, did anyone really think Sarah Wollaston was going to shift votes? I thought the main argument was whether her conversion was genuine, or if it was for "career reasons".
That said, your right that the Obama intervention showed just how little the "Remain" campaigners understand voters. Brits do NOT like being bossed around by the US.
Trump has endorsed Brexit, so it is which side of the US you want to be bossed around by, Obama or Trump!
To my knowledge Trump hasn't said that if we remain we will be sent to the back of the queue...
That said, i REALLY hope Trump stays away til after the refendum.
Can I just say I really don't mind Trump? I hope he wins in November.
There. I said it...
Just as with your support for Leave that statement shows just how bad your political judgement is .
Will Tyson be apologising for his bigoted comments about English football fans ?
' Uefa has expressed its “utter disgust” and opened disciplinary proceedings against Russia for crowd disturbances, racist behaviour by fans and fireworks being set off during the European Championship game against England on Saturday. Uefa has not opened any case against the English Football Association. '
I doubt anyone could pretend that they have been well behaved since arriving, even though it will likely be a minority. It has been well seen on screen them burning bars, fighting police and generally being thugs. Impossible to try and support that.
But its a stark comparison to how well things were handled at the 2006WC in Germany.
A combination of French plods, local Algerians and Russians on the other hand.
Plus anyone else who wants some 'action':
' Fan violence also erupted in Nice, where French hooligans fought with fans from Northern Ireland and Poland. '
From some of the videos I have seen on the Internet what is particularly shocking is the attacks on random folks who clearly not "wants some". I have little sympathy for those that are looking for a punch up & find that they get a kicking, but seen numerous clips of random folks quietly eating / drinking away from the front line getting attacked.
Not the same as saying he will resign or lose the leadership and he is the elected Prime Minister who will have just won a referendum, Tory members can say what they like, the UK electorate will have voted to Remain and the PM will still be a Remainer as a consequence
Whether or not he faces a leadership election is up to Conservative MPs. Who wins that leadership election is up to Conservative Party members.
Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.
I'm assuming that unless Remain win big (70:30?), that Mr Cameron will be replaced by a Leave MP shortly after the result comes in.
I think the Cons would then be well placed to convert Leave-Labour supporters.
Cameron will stay if Remain win, he will only be gone if they lose. If it is a narrow Remain though Osborne will not succeed him.
A narrow Remain win, will still mean Con voters supported Leave 2:1.
There's already enough bad blood in the parliamentary Conservative Party to trigger a leadership contest. To avert that Remain has to be a big win.
I read an article earlier in the week, that in a snippet towards the end, mentioned that Conservative MPs had been asked to sign a letter saying that Mr Cameron would not face an immediate leadership contest after the referendum. They reportedly couldn't get anyone to sign it, so it was dropped.
".. C2 skilled tradesmen are generally more affluent than C1 pen-pushers."
Absolutely. The chap who is coming to refit my bathroom is charging £1,000 per week for his labour. The plumber who needs to update the water system wants £800 a day. The Brickie, who after months of searching, I have finally found to repoint part of my house wants £300 per day. They all have long lead times (8 weeks plus)
Skilled and qualified tradesmen are in short supply and are doing very nicely.
Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:
"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift" "Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift" "The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"
have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".
To be fair, did anyone really think Sarah Wollaston was going to shift votes? I thought the main argument was whether her conversion was genuine, or if it was for "career reasons".
That said, your right that the Obama intervention showed just how little the "Remain" campaigners understand voters. Brits do NOT like being bossed around by the US.
Trump has endorsed Brexit, so it is which side of the US you want to be bossed around by, Obama or Trump!
To my knowledge Trump hasn't said that if we remain we will be sent to the back of the queue...
That said, i REALLY hope Trump stays away til after the refendum.
Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:
"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift" "Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift" "The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"
have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".
To be fair, did anyone really think Sarah Wollaston was going to shift votes? I thought the main argument was whether her conversion was genuine, or if it was for "career reasons".
That said, your right that the Obama intervention showed just how little the "Remain" campaigners understand voters. Brits do NOT like being bossed around by the US.
Trump has endorsed Brexit, so it is which side of the US you want to be bossed around by, Obama or Trump!
To my knowledge Trump hasn't said that if we remain we will be sent to the back of the queue...
That said, i REALLY hope Trump stays away til after the refendum.
Don't be an idiot. I've posted today and on other days that we've spent most of our time in the other Sheffield seats.
As I posted last week, I spent most of last week in West Yorkshire for Remain and will be spending all my campaigning activity there for the rest of the campaign.
Clearly you've never fought a successful campaign. You never take your supporters for granted.
You mean you never take your swivel-eyed loons for granted?
As a result of the rioting by Russians last night in Marseille, will UEFA and ultimately FIFA decide that Russia should forfeit its holding of the 2018 World Cup? ...... Thought not.
Will it be handed a suspended sentence specifying that should Russian "supporters" give rise to any further serious disturbances over the next two years, then it will forfeit the hosting of the World Cup? ...... Absolutely no chance.
Russia as it is can't survive.
Every day I pass well-heeled Russians in the street (I have a very basic understanding of their language). I've yet to know of a single Russian who actually has a job here.
Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:
"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift" "Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift" "The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"
have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".
To be fair, did anyone really think Sarah Wollaston was going to shift votes? I thought the main argument was whether her conversion was genuine, or if it was for "career reasons".
That said, your right that the Obama intervention showed just how little the "Remain" campaigners understand voters. Brits do NOT like being bossed around by the US.
Trump has endorsed Brexit, so it is which side of the US you want to be bossed around by, Obama or Trump!
To my knowledge Trump hasn't said that if we remain we will be sent to the back of the queue...
That said, i REALLY hope Trump stays away til after the refendum.
Can I just say I really don't mind Trump? I hope he wins in November.
There. I said it...
I wouldn't have voted for him in the primaries (Ted Cruz) but it's vital for the world that he beats Crooked Hillary.
Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:
"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift" "Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift" "The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"
have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".
To be fair, did anyone really think Sarah Wollaston was going to shift votes? I thought the main argument was whether her conversion was genuine, or if it was for "career reasons".
That said, your right that the Obama intervention showed just how little the "Remain" campaigners understand voters. Brits do NOT like being bossed around by the US.
Trump has endorsed Brexit, so it is which side of the US you want to be bossed around by, Obama or Trump!
To my knowledge Trump hasn't said that if we remain we will be sent to the back of the queue...
That said, i REALLY hope Trump stays away til after the refendum.
Can I just say I really don't mind Trump? I hope he wins in November.
There. I said it...
Just as with your support for Leave that statement shows just how bad your political judgement is .
I find that highly amusing coming from a supporter of a party wot lost 49 out of 57 seats (and lost 15% percentage points of the vote) at the last general election!
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.
Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.
Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.
So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?
Quod erat demonstrandum
Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days
While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.
I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.
Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom
Define 'landslide'
He managed to find a Remain voter. Given that Hallam is infested with libdem diehards who still elected clegg that is not entirely surprising.
TSE is truly a LibDem at heart.
So are Cameron Osborne Major Blair Mandelson, Heseltine and Clarke. That is the core of the problem.
Hezza's done a massive personal insult fest at Gove today. It looks angry and desperate.
Leave victory, Bojo as leader and PM, October election.
Tory landslide, and total marginalisation of Corbyn's Labour Party and Remainers in general.
I can dream
And what would PM Boris do? Still running a major deficit, dealing with the economic fallout from Brexit, global downturn on the way (?), a very large disgruntled white working class. I can't wait for what Boris has to offer them.
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.
Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.
Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.
So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?
Quod erat demonstrandum
Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days
While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.
I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.
Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom
Define 'landslide'
He managed to find a Remain voter. Given that Hallam is infested with libdem diehards who still elected clegg that is not entirely surprising.
TSE is truly a LibDem at heart.
So are Cameron Osborne Major Blair Mandelson, Heseltine and Clarke. That is the core of the problem.
You sound like a Momentum supporter who thinks anyone who doesn't agree with you is in the wrong party.
As a result of the rioting by Russians last night in Marseille, will UEFA and ultimately FIFA decide that Russia should forfeit its holding of the 2018 World Cup? ...... Thought not.
Will it be handed a suspended sentence specifying that should Russian "supporters" give rise to any further serious disturbances over the next two years, then it will forfeit the hosting of the World Cup? ...... Absolutely no chance.
Russia as it is can't survive.
Every day I pass well-heeled Russians in the street (I have a very basic understanding of their language). I've yet to know of a single Russian who actually has a job here.
I work with lots. They are without exception industrious, well-educated and inevitably end up as staunch Tory voters once they get their passports.
Best of all, they generally have a brilliant sense of humour. I think growing up there gives you a heightened sense of the absurd...
Will Tyson be apologising for his bigoted comments about English football fans ?
' Uefa has expressed its “utter disgust” and opened disciplinary proceedings against Russia for crowd disturbances, racist behaviour by fans and fireworks being set off during the European Championship game against England on Saturday. Uefa has not opened any case against the English Football Association. '
I doubt anyone could pretend that they have been well behaved since arriving, even though it will likely be a minority. It has been well seen on screen them burning bars, fighting police and generally being thugs. Impossible to try and support that.
But its a stark comparison to how well things were handled at the 2006WC in Germany.
A combination of French plods, local Algerians and Russians on the other hand.
Plus anyone else who wants some 'action':
' Fan violence also erupted in Nice, where French hooligans fought with fans from Northern Ireland and Poland. '
From some of the videos I have seen on the Internet what is particularly shocking is the attacks on random folks who clearly not "wants some". I have little sympathy for those that are looking for a punch up & find that they get a kicking, but seen numerous clips of random folks quietly eating / drinking away from the front line getting attacked.
The 'professional' hooligans never tended to attack ordinary people but would fight rival hooligans, often at prearranged places.
Not the same as saying he will resign or lose the leadership and he is the elected Prime Minister who will have just won a referendum, Tory members can say what they like, the UK electorate will have voted to Remain and the PM will still be a Remainer as a consequence
Whether or not he faces a leadership election is up to Conservative MPs. Who wins that leadership election is up to Conservative Party members.
Cameron will survive any confidence move against him by some Tory MPs irrespective of the outcome of the EU Ref.
Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.
I'm assuming that unless Remain win big (70:30?), that Mr Cameron will be replaced by a Leave MP shortly after the result comes in.
I think the Cons would then be well placed to convert Leave-Labour supporters.
Cameron will stay if Remain win, he will only be gone if they lose. If it is a narrow Remain though Osborne will not succeed him.
A narrow Remain win, will still mean Con voters supported Leave 2:1.
There's already enough bad blood in the parliamentary Conservative Party to trigger a leadership contest. To avert that Remain has to be a big win.
Mr. HyFD, we know from the last GE that polling companies will produce polls that suit their narrative, and suppress results that do not. We also know that currently those same polling companies are currently changing their methodology from week to week (see diverse posts on here). Frankly, I think that US alsatian owned by one of the US Tims, or indeed my own cat, is a more reliable indicator than YouGov.
As a result of the rioting by Russians last night in Marseille, will UEFA and ultimately FIFA decide that Russia should forfeit its holding of the 2018 World Cup? ...... Thought not.
Will it be handed a suspended sentence specifying that should Russian "supporters" give rise to any further serious disturbances over the next two years, then it will forfeit the hosting of the World Cup? ...... Absolutely no chance.
Russia as it is can't survive.
Every day I pass well-heeled Russians in the street (I have a very basic understanding of their language). I've yet to know of a single Russian who actually has a job here.
I work with lots. They are without exception industrious, well-educated and inevitably end up as staunch Tory voters once they get their passports.
And, I would have thought, staunch Remain supporters. Having gone to the trouble of getting a European passport they won't give up the right to free movement.
As a result of the rioting by Russians last night in Marseille, will UEFA and ultimately FIFA decide that Russia should forfeit its holding of the 2018 World Cup? ...... Thought not.
Will it be handed a suspended sentence specifying that should Russian "supporters" give rise to any further serious disturbances over the next two years, then it will forfeit the hosting of the World Cup? ...... Absolutely no chance.
Russia as it is can't survive.
Every day I pass well-heeled Russians in the street (I have a very basic understanding of their language). I've yet to know of a single Russian who actually has a job here.
How many rich Russians have ever had a job ?
It has more in common with a feudal or gangster society than a modern economy.
I wonder if any Leave campaigners have crossover with Scottish Independence campaigners? Because i'm sure all the same experiences were had then.
Yeah, me, as I campaigned for Yes and am now doing the same for Leave. There are some similarities, in that we were insurgents then and feel the same way now, but the differences are striking.
Back then we had an army of enthusiastic young people campaigning for Yes, and now we have platoons of older people fighting for Leave. Also back then it really felt as if everything up to and including the kitchen sink was being thrown at us in the last two weeks, but now we seem to have the field to ourselves. The other side are not putting any effort in at all.
Another big difference is the level of involvement. Two years ago it seemed as if we were all wearing Yes badges, with the Noes only arriving in the final week after an opinion poll put us ahead. The Remainers have been consistently ahead, so why are they not strutting around like boxers before a bout? They need to enthuse their voters, but that is just not happening.
One similarity is that both Yes voters and Leavers today are not voting on economic issues. Back then we had to pretend that it was an economic argument to try and sway the Noes, when actually it wasn't, but now our voters tell us that it is about immigration and taking back control. They do not care if there is an economic downside, they just want their country back. In other words, the Leave voters are making the running, at least in Scotland, and we just nod our heads to whatever they say.
One final point - in Edinburgh the middle class tend to speak with an English-type accent. If you encounter a voter with the hard, local, Scottish accent then he will probably be a Leaver, and be only to pleased to tell you why. We found that in the IndyRef as well amongst the Yessers. However, back then the Noes were far more assertive overall in their attitudes, whereas now they sort of smile and pass on by. If they vote, it will be for Remain - if they vote.
You want a prediction? Edinburgh will vote Remain, but we are working our hearts out to keep it below 60%. If we can get Leave to 45% I would think of that as a triumph. We can do no more.
Thanks so much for your posts. It's really exciting to hear something genuinely new on this site!
Seconded - and comparison with SIndy is fascinating - thanks @Ken
Leave victory, Bojo as leader and PM, October election.
Tory landslide, and total marginalisation of Corbyn's Labour Party and Remainers in general.
I can dream
And what would PM Boris do? Still running a major deficit, dealing with the economic fallout from Brexit, global downturn on the way (?), a very large disgruntled white working class. I can't wait for what Boris has to offer them.
An excellent question. You can switch 'Corbyn' for 'Boris' and it still works.
Personally I think your first point is the most important. We need to get ourselves out of the financial hand-cuffs.
Re Russian humour, those with some knowledge of the language should enjoy this clip. It was made just after the near collapse of the rouble at the end of 2014:
Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.
I'm assuming that unless Remain win big (70:30?), that Mr Cameron will be replaced by a Leave MP shortly after the result comes in.
I think the Cons would then be well placed to convert Leave-Labour supporters.
Cameron will stay if Remain win, he will only be gone if they lose. If it is a narrow Remain though Osborne will not succeed him.
A narrow Remain win, will still mean Con voters supported Leave 2:1.
There's already enough bad blood in the parliamentary Conservative Party to trigger a leadership contest. To avert that Remain has to be a big win.
Mr. HyFD, we know from the last GE that polling companies will produce polls that suit their narrative, and suppress results that do not. We also know that currently those same polling companies are currently changing their methodology from week to week (see diverse posts on here). Frankly, I think that US alsatian owned by one of the US Tims, or indeed my own cat, is a more reliable indicator than YouGov.
Mr L
you probably missed it, but I was interested in your MP versus his constituency
a) what do you think your constituency result will be b) what do you think his constituency party split is
Mr Brooke,
My personal view is that Arundel and South Downs will be fairly solidly for Leave. As for the local party, I am not so sure.
There are not that many of them and most are elderly but they are shockingly loyal. So a few dozen, and that is the sort of numbers we are talking about, are neither here nor there.
As a result of the rioting by Russians last night in Marseille, will UEFA and ultimately FIFA decide that Russia should forfeit its holding of the 2018 World Cup? ...... Thought not.
Will it be handed a suspended sentence specifying that should Russian "supporters" give rise to any further serious disturbances over the next two years, then it will forfeit the hosting of the World Cup? ...... Absolutely no chance.
Russia as it is can't survive.
Every day I pass well-heeled Russians in the street (I have a very basic understanding of their language). I've yet to know of a single Russian who actually has a job here.
How many rich Russians have ever had a job ?
It has more in common with a feudal or gangster society than a modern economy.
I can't disagree, but my fondness for my kneecaps prevents me from totally agreeing.
The mass murder in the club in Orlando is feared to be a politically/religiously inspired attack and not just a singular nut-job with or without anti gay prejudices.
It can't be connected with the murder of the "The Voice" singer? That was also Orlando wasn't it?
As a result of the rioting by Russians last night in Marseille, will UEFA and ultimately FIFA decide that Russia should forfeit its holding of the 2018 World Cup? ...... Thought not.
Will it be handed a suspended sentence specifying that should Russian "supporters" give rise to any further serious disturbances over the next two years, then it will forfeit the hosting of the World Cup? ...... Absolutely no chance.
Russia as it is can't survive.
Every day I pass well-heeled Russians in the street (I have a very basic understanding of their language). I've yet to know of a single Russian who actually has a job here.
I work with lots. They are without exception industrious, well-educated and inevitably end up as staunch Tory voters once they get their passports.
Best of all, they generally have a brilliant sense of humour. I think growing up there gives you a heightened sense of the absurd...
Ok, well I revise my view a little then. What sort of industry are you in?
PS I already know Russian people are great. It's just their political system that I question.
Leave victory, Bojo as leader and PM, October election.
Tory landslide, and total marginalisation of Corbyn's Labour Party and Remainers in general.
I can dream
Likely to be too late for an October election. Labour will not facilitate an election during the honeymoon period for a new Tory PM so the Tories would have to engineer the loss of a Confidence Vote in themselves. That would look odd to the public and be high risk.New leade will not be in place until Autumn and Parliament would not reassemble until mid-October after the party conferences.Even if a Confidence Vote defeat happened immediately there could be no election before the last week of November. Probably too late. March or May 2017 somewhat more likely.
Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:
"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift" "Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift" "The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"
have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".
To be fair, did anyone really think Sarah Wollaston was going to shift votes? I thought the main argument was whether her conversion was genuine, or if it was for "career reasons".
That said, your right that the Obama intervention showed just how little the "Remain" campaigners understand voters. Brits do NOT like being bossed around by the US.
Trump has endorsed Brexit, so it is which side of the US you want to be bossed around by, Obama or Trump!
To my knowledge Trump hasn't said that if we remain we will be sent to the back of the queue...
That said, i REALLY hope Trump stays away til after the refendum.
Can I just say I really don't mind Trump? I hope he wins in November.
FWIW I left the Labour Party today, and I voted for Corbyn.
Care to elaborate? Is it due to his stealthy approach to this campaign or something completely different...
For one, I think Corbyn should have been honest about his position and then campaigned for it, regardless if I agreed with it or not. The new honest type of politics that I was promised appears to be a lie.
I also am amazed about how amateur the party has been, both in parliament and out since the last election.
I'm also sad about the lack of focus on the North from the Labour Party, despite the amount of votes it gets from here.
I will remain partyless for a while I think.
I take the point on amateurishness and maybe the North (though I'm not sure that's still true), but Corbyn is saying what he thinks - I've known him for 4 decades. He used to be opposed to membership, but now thinks that it's really the only game in town for socialism, despite its obvious problems.
The tradition in Britain is that if you decide to support something you should then go all out, pretending it's the perfect solution and everyone who doesn't agree is deluded. He doesn't do that - he simply says what he thinks - he's not keen on it but thinks that withdrawal would be very damaging, especially with the right-wing Tory government that would follow. I think it's a pity if you resign rather than allow leaders to express a nuanced view.
I hope Mr Corbyn is right. My own fear is that remaining holds very high risks indeed of the eventual election of an extreme right wing movement.
".. C2 skilled tradesmen are generally more affluent than C1 pen-pushers."
Absolutely. The chap who is coming to refit my bathroom is charging £1,000 per week for his labour. The plumber who needs to update the water system wants £800 a day. The Brickie, who after months of searching, I have finally found to repoint part of my house wants £300 per day. They all have long lead times (8 weeks plus)
Skilled and qualified tradesmen are in short supply and are doing very nicely.
And, most not paying taxes anywhere near they should. I want the Romanian plumbers to undercut the Polish ones.
Wise words from Mike in the thread header, but I'm afraid the real value in backing LEAVE has already long gone. Barely a week or so ago, one could readily get odds of 4/1 backing the Boris/Gove team. Those odds have now halved with 2/1 the best price available and the likes of Betfred and Boylesports have trimmed their odds to 7/4.
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.
Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.
Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.
So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?
Quod erat demonstrandum
Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days
While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.
I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.
Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom
Define 'landslide'
He managed to find a Remain voter. Given that Hallam is infested with libdem diehards who still elected clegg that is not entirely surprising.
TSE is truly a LibDem at heart.
So are Cameron Osborne Major Blair Mandelson, Heseltine and Clarke. That is the core of the problem.
Hezza's done a massive personal insult fest at Gove today. It looks angry and desperate.
Hezza has the same problem as Bill Clinton.
Used to pull them in by the thousand to listen to him speak, now looking and sounding past it, clearly yesterday's man, but can't admit it.
Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:
"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift" "Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift" "The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"
have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".
To be fair, did anyone really think Sarah Wollaston was going to shift votes? I thought the main argument was whether her conversion was genuine, or if it was for "career reasons".
That said, your right that the Obama intervention showed just how little the "Remain" campaigners understand voters. Brits do NOT like being bossed around by the US.
Trump has endorsed Brexit, so it is which side of the US you want to be bossed around by, Obama or Trump!
To my knowledge Trump hasn't said that if we remain we will be sent to the back of the queue...
That said, i REALLY hope Trump stays away til after the refendum.
Can I just say I really don't mind Trump? I hope he wins in November.
There. I said it...
Just as with your support for Leave that statement shows just how bad your political judgement is .
Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.
I'm assuming that unless Remain win big (70:30?), that Mr Cameron will be replaced by a Leave MP shortly after the result comes in.
I think the Cons would then be well placed to convert Leave-Labour supporters.
Cameron will stay if Remain win, he will only be gone if they lose. If it is a narrow Remain though Osborne will not succeed him.
A narrow Remain win, will still mean Con voters supported Leave 2:1.
There's already enough bad blood in the parliamentary Conservative Party to trigger a leadership contest. To avert that Remain has to be a big win.
Mr. HyFD, we know from the last GE that polling companies will produce polls that suit their narrative, and suppress results that do not. We also know that currently those same polling companies are currently changing their methodology from week to week (see diverse posts on here). Frankly, I think that US alsatian owned by one of the US Tims, or indeed my own cat, is a more reliable indicator than YouGov.
Mr L
you probably missed it, but I was interested in your MP versus his constituency
a) what do you think your constituency result will be b) what do you think his constituency party split is
Mr Brooke,
My personal view is that Arundel and South Downs will be fairly solidly for Leave. As for the local party, I am not so sure.
There are not that many of them and most are elderly but they are shockingly loyal. So a few dozen, and that is the sort of numbers we are talking about, are neither here nor there.
I would imagine that Crawley and the coastal towns ** in West Sussex will be even more pro Leave.
Is there any hope for Remain in Chichester or Horsham ?
** I can never remember which of Worthing, Littlehampton, Bognor and Shoreham are said to be always crap, once nice but fading badly or still nice.
Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:
"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift" "Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift" "The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"
have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".
To be fair, did anyone really think Sarah Wollaston was going to shift votes? I thought the main argument was whether her conversion was genuine, or if it was for "career reasons".
That said, your right that the Obama intervention showed just how little the "Remain" campaigners understand voters. Brits do NOT like being bossed around by the US.
Trump has endorsed Brexit, so it is which side of the US you want to be bossed around by, Obama or Trump!
To my knowledge Trump hasn't said that if we remain we will be sent to the back of the queue...
That said, i REALLY hope Trump stays away til after the refendum.
Can I just say I really don't mind Trump? I hope he wins in November.
There. I said it...
A couple of people at work have also indicated a preference for Trump.
My view is it is a bit like Alien vs Predator .....................
As a result of the rioting by Russians last night in Marseille, will UEFA and ultimately FIFA decide that Russia should forfeit its holding of the 2018 World Cup? ...... Thought not.
Will it be handed a suspended sentence specifying that should Russian "supporters" give rise to any further serious disturbances over the next two years, then it will forfeit the hosting of the World Cup? ...... Absolutely no chance.
Russia as it is can't survive.
Every day I pass well-heeled Russians in the street (I have a very basic understanding of their language). I've yet to know of a single Russian who actually has a job here.
I work with lots. They are without exception industrious, well-educated and inevitably end up as staunch Tory voters once they get their passports.
And, I would have thought, staunch Remain supporters. Having gone to the trouble of getting a European passport they won't give up the right to free movement.
A UK Passport grants you visa free access to 173 countries, 28 of those are in the EU.
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.
Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.
Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.
So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?
Quod erat demonstrandum
Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days
While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.
I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.
Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom
Define 'landslide'
He managed to find a Remain voter. Given that Hallam is infested with libdem diehards who still elected clegg that is not entirely surprising.
TSE is truly a LibDem at heart.
So are Cameron Osborne Major Blair Mandelson, Heseltine and Clarke. That is the core of the problem.
Hezza's done a massive personal insult fest at Gove today. It looks angry and desperate.
Hezza has the same problem as Bill Clinton.
Used to pull them in by the thousand to listen to him speak, now looking and sounding past it, clearly yesterday's man, but can't admit it.
Saw Bill yesterday - he looked 90, and like a washed up Vegas lounge singer. Hezza looks very like Foot, but still very powerful speaker.
".. C2 skilled tradesmen are generally more affluent than C1 pen-pushers."
Absolutely. The chap who is coming to refit my bathroom is charging £1,000 per week for his labour. The plumber who needs to update the water system wants £800 a day. The Brickie, who after months of searching, I have finally found to repoint part of my house wants £300 per day. They all have long lead times (8 weeks plus)
Skilled and qualified tradesmen are in short supply and are doing very nicely.
And, most not paying taxes anywhere near they should. I want the Romanian plumbers to undercut the Polish ones.
No idea what point you are trying to make. The tradesmen I have engaged are not cash in hand, mobile number only, cowboys. Rather they are established people with a track record and good references. They will not be paid in cash and how they manage their tax liabilities is not my concern.
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hd and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.
Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.
Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.
So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?
Quod erat demonstrandum
Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days
While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.
I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.
Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom
Define 'landslide'
He managed to find a Remain voter. Given that Hallam is infested with libdem diehards who still elected clegg that is not entirely surprising.
TSE is truly a LibDem at heart.
So are Cameron Osborne Major Blair Mandelson, Heseltine and Clarke. That is the core of the problem.
Hezza's done a massive personal insult fest at Gove today. It looks angry and desperate.
Hezza has the same problem as Bill Clinton.
Used to pull them in by the thousand to listen to him speak, now looking and sounding past it, clearly yesterday's man, but can't admit it.
Saw Bill yesterday - he looked 90, and like a washed up Vegas lounge singer. Hezza looks very like Foot, but still very powerful speaker.
Heseltine has been on the wrong side of almost any argument he's ever been in.
Have you conducted research into the 'washed up Vegas lounge singer' community? (Sorry, couldn't resist)
Whatever the accuracy of the various polls I think we can say that:
"Honest John Major's intervention will produce a big shift" "Sarah Wollaston's defection will produce a big shift" "The collapse in the exchange rate will produce a big shift"
have been as prophetic as "Obama's intervention will produce a big shift".
Obama's intervention DID produce a big shift - Only Cameron has been a more effective cheerleader for LEAVE.
Saw Bill yesterday - he looked 90, and like a washed up Vegas lounge singer. Hezza looks very like Foot, but still very powerful speaker.
Bill at HRC's recent events was just awful. In his prime he was superb, probably the most naturally gifted orator since JFK, but the sparkle has gone, the voice is querulous and cracks at the important parts, he reaches for the next gear when he needs some extra oomph and it just isn't there. Should have retired gracefully to his library a decade ago so we would only remember him at the height of his powers.
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hd and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.
Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.
Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.
So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?
Quod erat demonstrandum
Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days
While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.
I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.
Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom
Define 'landslide'
He managed to find a Remain voter. Given that Hallam is infested with libdem diehards who still elected clegg that is not entirely surprising.
TSE is truly a LibDem at heart.
So are Cameron Osborne Major Blair Mandelson, Heseltine and Clarke. That is the core of the problem.
Hezza's done a massive personal insult fest at Gove today. It looks angry and desperate.
Heseltine has been on the wrong side of almost any argument he's ever been in.
Have you conducted research into the 'washed up Vegas lounge singer' community? (Sorry, couldn't resist)
Ha! Whenever someone who used to be famous dies - Sky always has footage of them in Vegas trying to keep the embers of their careers alive. It's exactly what Bill looked like.
Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.
I'm assuming that unless Remain win big (70:30?), that Mr Cameron will be replaced by a Leave MP shortly after the result comes in.
I think the Cons would then be well placed to convert Leave-Labour supporters.
Cameron will stay if Remain win, he will only be gone if they lose. If it is a narrow Remain though Osborne will not succeed him.
A narrow Remain win, will still mean Con voters supported Leave 2:1.
There's already enough bad blood in the parliamentary Conservative Party to trigger a leadership contest. To avert that Remain has to be a big win.
Mr. HyFD, we know from the last GE that polling companies will produce polls that suit their narrative, and suppress results that do not. We also know that currently those same polling companies are currently changing their methodology from week to week (see diverse posts on here). Frankly, I think that US alsatian owned by one of the US Tims, or indeed my own cat, is a more reliable indicator than YouGov.
Mr L
you probably missed it, but I was interested in your MP versus his constituency
a) what do you think your constituency result will be b) what do you think his constituency party split is
Mr Brooke,
My personal view is that Arundel and South Downs will be fairly solidly for Leave. As for the local party, I am not so sure.
There are not that many of them and most are elderly but they are shockingly loyal. So a few dozen, and that is the sort of numbers we are talking about, are neither here nor there.
WRT elderly people, I've been thinking overnight about that business of 'pensions could be hit' if we leave, and comparing it to the statements (on here & elsewhere) that older people are likely to be voting with an eye to the future for their grandchildren & so on.
I know that, at the time of the last GE, many older people have deprecated the protection of their economic interests at the expense of those of younger people. (The free bus pass being national rather than regional, or free rather (than), say, half-price, is often cited.)
Politicians know that older people turn out & vote; I wonder whether they have over-estimated the need to win over those older voters by economic guarantees?
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.
Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.
Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.
So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?
Quod erat demonstrandum
Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days
While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.
I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.
Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom
Define 'landslide'
Remain with 65/70 % of the vote.
I'm surprised that even in Clegg-central it's so strong. Well done you Remainers.
(fwiw I'm still undecided)
Most of the staff of the two universities live here, you've got most of the NHS staff from Sheffield's many hospitals living here too.
UKIP polled 6 and a bit per cent last year.
I'd be worried if it wasn't a Remain landslide here.
A marginal result won't be good. If there are places voting 66/33 the other way to whatever the result is it'll be tough.
Are the Universities there any good?
The fact TSE and his fellow travellers see a need to use valuable volunteers canvassing and trying to get out the vote somewhere like that which should be remain slam dunk tells you more about where this is going than 100 opinion polls.
Good afternoon. I disagree. Once more for the cheap seats: this is not a general election. Remain need to get the vote out. Out in here in the sticks, he might wait hours (I exaggerate for effect!) to find a Remain supporter.
In Remain heartlands he has a rich seam of sympathetic targets, and he can impress on them the importance of _actually_ voting in order to see off this nascent rebellion by the filthy WWC.
PS Today saw my first 'Vote Remain' poster in someone's window on the Hereford Road. Unfortunately, it was badly positioned so appeared to be saying 'VOT REMA'.
Have I found some 12/1value which should be 9/1 or less?
Shadsy and his little helpers at Ladbrokes have come up with a bet relating to the EU Referendum result, which at first glance looks cracking value to me.
Just about all the current polling evidence suggests that the result of the referendum vote on 23 June (my birthday btw) is likely to very close. Furthermore, it's probably the case that the overwhelming majority have now made up their minds on how they intend to vote. Consequently, I doubt the polls will shift to any substantial extent over the next 11 days and of course most postal voters will have already cast their vote.
It seems very likely to me that REMAIN will secure between 45% - 55% of the vote, a range therefore of 10% and by definition, therefore. LEAVE will do likewise. If you disagree then this basic assumption, then this bet is definitely not for you!
Ladbrokes are offering odds of 12/1 that the margin of victory will be less than 1% for either side, i.e. that one or other side (or in fact both sides) will secure between 49.5% - 50.5% of the vote.
In effect one is covering fully 1% or 10 per cent of a 10% range, where fair value should therefore be 9/1. In fact, since one is covering the very centre of what is the most likely element (or thereabouts) of a 10% range, the true statistical odds are appreciably less than 9/1, perhaps somewhere between 6.5/1 - 7.5/1.
Not something to bet the farm on, but possibly worth the price of a pint at decent odds.
WRT elderly people, I've been thinking overnight about that business of 'pensions could be hit' if we leave, and comparing it to the statements (on here & elsewhere) that older people are likely to be voting with an eye to the future for their grandchildren & so on.
I know that, at the time of the last GE, many older people have deprecated the protection of their economic interests at the expense of those of younger people. (The free bus pass being national rather than regional, or free rather (than), say, half-price, is often cited.)
Politicians know that older people turn out & vote; I wonder whether they have over-estimated the need to win over those older voters by economic guarantees?
Cameron this morning talked about pensions being hit etc. It's a bit harsh. Pensioners on the whole have paid a big chunk of money month-on-month, year-on-year for their pensions. It's called National Insurance. State pensions (beyond the basic) are not a state hand-out.
Trump out to 4.6 in case anyone is interested. Apparently the regular Trump price updater only does updates when it is shortening.
There's been a massive over-reaction to a slight drift in the polls back to Clinton [or even due to a hiatus in the frequency of polls]
PEC gives Trump a 35% chance, implying sub 3.0 odds as fair value. and concede his chance may be even higher.
From the state polls, a barely 1% swing to Trump would give him the keys to the White House.
If today's tragic events push Florida into his column I'd expect a sharp movement back on BF.
What is it about Orlando, btw? Only yesterday there was the senseless murder of the pop singer at a concert. Were these incidents related?
Anyhow Trump has two public meetings in NH later today, so we await his comments...
Yes, the slight drift showing Hilary winning Kentucky in a landslide.
I think you mean Kansas. It wasn't a landslide, and no-one seems to be taking it seriously, anyhow. A very odd poll, and on its own it means next to nothing.
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.
Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.
Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.
So what are you doing for Leave apart from editing other people's posts on a website ?
Quod erat demonstrandum
Your'e just so out of touch Eagles, it's all about twitter these days
While your traipsing through the hovels of Hallam, Sunil's reaching out to the kids in their millions.
I've been hitting the mean streets of West Yorkshire. Hallam is a remain landslide.
Twitter huh? Oh I miss the days of #CameronMustGo and the #Milifandom
Define 'landslide'
Remain with 65/70 % of the vote.
I'm surprised that even in Clegg-central it's so strong. Well done you Remainers.
(fwiw I'm still undecided)
Most of the staff of the two universities live here, you've got most of the NHS staff from Sheffield's many hospitals living here too.
UKIP polled 6 and a bit per cent last year.
I'd be worried if it wasn't a Remain landslide here.
A marginal result won't be good. If there are places voting 66/33 the other way to whatever the result is it'll be tough.
Are the Universities there any good?
The fact TSE and his fellow travellers see a need to use valuable volunteers canvassing and trying to get out the vote somewhere like that which should be remain slam dunk tells you more about where this is going than 100 opinion polls.
PS Today saw my first 'Vote Remain' poster in someone's window on the Hereford Road. Unfortunately, it was badly positioned so appeared to be saying 'VOT REMA'.
I think we can all get behind such a message. It's clearly code for secretly being for Leave.
I put Vot into a latin-english translator and it came up with voto/votare, with definitions of being 'an obstacle', 'forbid', 'prevent'.
Putting in Rema suggested Remanero, definitions 'continue' or 'remain' or 'stay behind'.
I think they've misreported that poll on an epic scandal. They've given two options for Leave and only one for Remain
You see instead of wasting your time trying to recruit a disinterested student you should have been at your keyboard shaping the narrative before Sunil does. :-)
Saw Bill yesterday - he looked 90, and like a washed up Vegas lounge singer. Hezza looks very like Foot, but still very powerful speaker.
Bill at HRC's recent events was just awful. In his prime he was superb, probably the most naturally gifted orator since JFK, but the sparkle has gone, the voice is querulous and cracks at the important parts, he reaches for the next gear when he needs some extra oomph and it just isn't there. Should have retired gracefully to his library a decade ago so we would only remember him at the height of his powers.
Trump [70 on Tuesday] is 2 months older than Slick Willie, but could pass for 15 years younger...
I think they've misreported that poll on an epic scandal. They've given two options for Leave and only one for Remain
You see instead of wasting your time trying to recruit a disinterested student you should have been at your keyboard shaping the narrative before Sunil does. :-)
I'm headed down to London so I can go to Paris for our Brexit contingency planning.
"So OGH knows in advance what the next polls will say. With a sweep of his wand, our wizard is betting all on old phone technology to help Remain in the last few days. Well I say that's all very weird."
Ian Harnett of ARS and formerly UBS is warning in the Observer of a Brexit effect of a 30% fall in sterling and a 20% fall in the FTSE. Combined this would have a massive effect on private pensions. No doubt the economically illiterate brexiters will tell us that this will be more than made up for by our free unicorns.
I think they've misreported that poll on an epic scandal. They've given two options for Leave and only one for Remain
You see instead of wasting your time trying to recruit a disinterested student you should have been at your keyboard shaping the narrative before Sunil does. :-)
I'm headed down to London so I can go to Paris for our Brexit contingency planning.
Looking at that poll shouldnt it be Bremain contingency planning ? ;-)
Comments
There. I said it...
Will it be handed a suspended sentence specifying that should Russian "supporters" give rise to any further serious disturbances over the next two years, then it will forfeit the hosting of the World Cup? ...... Absolutely no chance.
Obama might have had an effect if he'd said "This is for the British people to decide and whatever the outcome our two countries will remain close friends and allies but overall I think it might be in Britain's best interest to remain in the EU."
Instead we had his 'Back of the queue for trade, front of the queue for military casualties' arrogance with Cameron smirking behind him.
As I posted last week, I spent most of last week in West Yorkshire for Remain and will be spending all my campaigning activity there for the rest of the campaign.
Clearly you've never fought a successful campaign. You never take your supporters for granted.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36219612
I'd switch if I were you.
".. C2 skilled tradesmen are generally more affluent than C1 pen-pushers."
Absolutely. The chap who is coming to refit my bathroom is charging £1,000 per week for his labour. The plumber who needs to update the water system wants £800 a day. The Brickie, who after months of searching, I have finally found to repoint part of my house wants £300 per day. They all have long lead times (8 weeks plus)
Skilled and qualified tradesmen are in short supply and are doing very nicely.
Yes i am aware, i hope he can be pursuaded to wait.
Every day I pass well-heeled Russians in the street (I have a very basic understanding of their language). I've yet to know of a single Russian who actually has a job here.
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/the-eu-referendum-what-to-expect-on-the-night-521792dd3eef#.f5l2n5v1g
You're welcome.
Do you know how Dewsbury is going? I've loads of relatives there and it could be interesting, being as they're mostly Labour voters.
https://ssl.bbc.co.uk/complaints/forms/?lang=en&reset=&uid=155198915
Let the BBC know
Best of all, they generally have a brilliant sense of humour. I think growing up there gives you a heightened sense of the absurd...
What we have now are more generalised thugs.
It has more in common with a feudal or gangster society than a modern economy.
Personally I think your first point is the most important. We need to get ourselves out of the financial hand-cuffs.
https://youtu.be/ioKtG7ezItU
My personal view is that Arundel and South Downs will be fairly solidly for Leave. As for the local party, I am not so sure.
There are not that many of them and most are elderly but they are shockingly loyal. So a few dozen, and that is the sort of numbers we are talking about, are neither here nor there.
PS I already know Russian people are great. It's just their political system that I question.
(Good afternoon, everyone.)
Those odds have now halved with 2/1 the best price available and the likes of Betfred and Boylesports have trimmed their odds to 7/4.
Used to pull them in by the thousand to listen to him speak, now looking and sounding past it, clearly yesterday's man, but can't admit it.
Is there any hope for Remain in Chichester or Horsham ?
** I can never remember which of Worthing, Littlehampton, Bognor and Shoreham are said to be always crap, once nice but fading badly or still nice.
My view is it is a bit like Alien vs Predator .....................
Still 0-0.
PEC gives Trump a 35% chance, implying sub 3.0 odds as fair value. and concede his chance may be even higher.
From the state polls, a barely 1% swing to Trump would give him the keys to the White House.
If today's tragic events push Florida into his column I'd expect a sharp movement back on BF.
What is it about Orlando, btw? Only yesterday there was the senseless murder of the pop singer at a concert. Were these incidents related?
Anyhow Trump has two public meetings in NH later today, so we await his comments...
20 dead, 42 injured in shooting at Orlando gay nightclub. Shooter also had a bomb and held many hostage for 3hrs. SWAT got him IIRC
Seems a strange coincidence?
Have you conducted research into the 'washed up Vegas lounge singer' community? (Sorry, couldn't resist)
https://twitter.com/minefornothing/status/741984158159773698
I know that, at the time of the last GE, many older people have deprecated the protection of their economic interests at the expense of those of younger people. (The free bus pass being national rather than regional, or free rather (than), say, half-price, is often cited.)
Politicians know that older people turn out & vote; I wonder whether they have over-estimated the need to win over those older voters by economic guarantees?
(edited to insert a missing word)
In Remain heartlands he has a rich seam of sympathetic targets, and he can impress on them the importance of _actually_ voting in order to see off this nascent rebellion by the filthy WWC.
PS Today saw my first 'Vote Remain' poster in someone's window on the Hereford Road. Unfortunately, it was badly positioned so appeared to be saying 'VOT REMA'.
Have I found some 12/1value which should be 9/1 or less?
Shadsy and his little helpers at Ladbrokes have come up with a bet relating to the EU Referendum result, which at first glance looks cracking value to me.
Just about all the current polling evidence suggests that the result of the referendum vote on 23 June (my birthday btw) is likely to very close. Furthermore, it's probably the case that the overwhelming majority have now made up their minds on how they intend to vote. Consequently, I doubt the polls will shift to any substantial extent over the next 11 days and of course most postal voters will have already cast their vote.
It seems very likely to me that REMAIN will secure between 45% - 55% of the vote, a range therefore of 10% and by definition, therefore. LEAVE will do likewise. If you disagree then this basic assumption, then this bet is definitely not for you!
Ladbrokes are offering odds of 12/1 that the margin of victory will be less than 1% for either side, i.e. that one or other side (or in fact both sides) will secure between 49.5% - 50.5% of the vote.
In effect one is covering fully 1% or 10 per cent of a 10% range, where fair value should therefore be 9/1. In fact, since one is covering the very centre of what is the most likely element (or thereabouts) of a 10% range, the true statistical odds are appreciably less than 9/1, perhaps somewhere between 6.5/1 - 7.5/1.
Not something to bet the farm on, but possibly worth the price of a pint at decent odds.
As ever, DYOR.
In the past The Express have been a disgrace in reporting polls.
I put Vot into a latin-english translator and it came up with voto/votare, with definitions of being 'an obstacle', 'forbid', 'prevent'.
Putting in Rema suggested Remanero, definitions 'continue' or 'remain' or 'stay behind'.
Ergo, Vot Rema is them saying 'Prevent Remain'
Would be very interested to see methodology and weightings.
Is it as weird as a fire at Seaworld?
Combined this would have a massive effect on private pensions.
No doubt the economically illiterate brexiters will tell us that this will be more than made up for by our free unicorns.