Undefined discussion subject.

alex. said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Harry Mason @harryjmason
England fans in Marseille singing "fuck off Europe we're all voting out"

Whilst trashing the place. Good neighbours as ever.

Whoever thought that putting a bunch England's finest 'fans', a bunch of Russia's finest and the notoriously friendly French police in the same town for a long weekend was going to end in anything other than a riot..?

TCPoliticalBetting said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Harry Mason @harryjmason
England fans in Marseille singing "fuck off Europe we're all voting out"

Will they be back in time the vote?

Probably not released from jail in time.

Fighting the Russian hooligans...got to be brain dead. Our boys don't get the weekly training sessions they used to.

Sandpit said:

alex. said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Harry Mason @harryjmason
England fans in Marseille singing "fuck off Europe we're all voting out"

Whilst trashing the place. Good neighbours as ever.

Whoever thought that putting a bunch England's finest 'fans', a bunch of Russia's finest and the notoriously friendly French police in the same town for a long weekend was going to end in anything other than a riot..?

Good job the Dutch or the Poles aren't there...

TCPoliticalBetting said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/741339330619248640

Interesting that REMAIN were jubilant with leads whereas LEAVE are not. A contrast in approaches.

Remain are disjointed and really in disarray. Leave easily won last night and in Andrea Leesom have a rising star. Angela Eagle showed just why labour are losing the referendum for remain. She was off the scale of dreadful while the leave team were polished and made their case, though Boris is not PM material. I think there is a real possibility that leave could win this and while I would be disappointed (and concerned) the sight of Juncker's et al running around like headless chickens would be so wonderful and a satisfying consolation prize. Still we will see but the only caution I would suggest to leave is that polls like tonight will strengthen the remain vote who may have stayed at home if they felt it was a foregone conclusion. Interesting times and I hope whoever wins we can all be pleasant to each other the day after, (I accept one or two may not see it that way but you can always hope)

alex. said:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/10/president-trump-brexit-which-worse-britain-votes-leave-hammer-blow-peace

You don't have to agree with it, but it isn't an argument that can be dismissed IMO. People take peace in Europe for granted, and some are even actively looking forward to the EU breaking up in the aftermath of a UK exit. But what do they see a continental Europe not bound together by the EU looking like?

I think it could look like one bound together by an EEA/EFTA and NATO.

HYUFD - but does Ed Milliband's vote hold up in Doncaster, I just don't see why it should.

RealBritain said:

CornishBlue said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Harry Mason @harryjmason
England fans in Marseille singing "fuck off Europe we're all voting out"

This sums up the current political and cultural climate.

Dire.

And your snobbishness is typical of why we're voting against the PC establishment and voting LEAVE.

Sean_F said:

another_richard said:

Thinking about the Cameroons abuse of 'Little Englanders' makes me wonder if their interest is in Britain rather than the British people.

The likes of Cameron and Osborne (ditto for Blair and Milibands) think of themselves as 'Masters of the Universe' and feel at home in 'world cities' and moving and shaking with similar people around the world.

But how much interest do they have and empathy towards their own core voters (EdM could barely stand to be in Doncaster for more than five minutes) throughout England or those swing voters in Nuneaton or Ilkeston or Cannock where elections are decided.

Instead if they think in global terms then people throughout the world might be deemed as deserving to live in a 'world city' and these incomers would also have the advantages of accepting lower pay and being more servile than the oiks up the M1.

All a bit rambling but I wonder if you offered the choice to our political and business 'elite' of replacing half the British people with a random sample from around the world whether they would agree.

There are two things that the Masters of the Universe cherish:-

1. Supranational forms of government
2. Mass migration of peoples.

Perhaps they are about to learn that the masses don't cherish these things.

Quite. I just don't get why anyone on the left has any truck with this either.

I would hope all Tories would want to look after their electorate.

PAW said:

HYUFD - but does Ed Milliband's vote hold up in Doncaster, I just don't see why it should.

Ed Miliband is not even in the Shadow Cabinet and a Leave vote will lead UKIP to wither on the vine, Doncaster will always vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party over a Thatcherite Tory Party

BenedictWhite said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Harry Mason @harryjmason
England fans in Marseille singing "fuck off Europe we're all voting out"

Sorry that made me laugh.

My bad.

Well done our boys. I would certainly be joining in if I was there.

HYUFD said:

PAW said:

I can see the conservative party surviving the referendum, with a change of leadership - but I can't see the labour party doing so - almost all their mps have opinions repellant to labour voters - who understand this clearly now.

No, in some ways a Leave vote solves Labour's problems, Corbyn was anti EU for most of his career anyway, there will be no prospect of replacing him with a Remainer and it also solves the UKIP problem. The Tories will pick a more rightwing leader and we will be back to 1980s politics, Old Labour v Thatcherite Tories in a UK outside the EU

If Remain win narrowly both Labour and the Tories have problems from a resurgent UKIP

No because although Corbyn is an outer he still thinks Labour voters are waycist and will just offer to chuck some cash at the problem.

His MPs also think that solves the problem, because what everyone wants is to live in a concrete jungle not speaking the same language as their next door neighbour.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/741339330619248640

Interesting that REMAIN were jubilant with leads whereas LEAVE are not. A contrast in approaches.

Remain are disjointed and really in disarray. Leave easily won last night and in Andrea Leesom have a rising star. Angela Eagle showed just why labour are losing the referendum for remain. She was off the scale of dreadful while the leave team were polished and made their case, though Boris is not PM material. I think there is a real possibility that leave could win this and while I would be disappointed (and concerned) the sight of Juncker's et al running around like headless chickens would be so wonderful and a satisfying consolation prize. Still we will see but the only caution I would suggest to leave is that polls like tonight will strengthen the remain vote who may have stayed at home if they felt it was a foregone conclusion. Interesting times and I hope whoever wins we can all be pleasant to each other the day after, (I accept one or two may not see it that way but you can always hope)

I'm pleased you like the consolation prize on offer!

If I was a remainer I would be voting leave just to see that

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
Tory Inners keen for Labour to get more air time to win over their people. Then they all say immigration isn't an issue. How does that help?

What did they expect. The PC Party pandering to closent racist little Englanders?

BenedictWhite said:

HYUFD said:

PAW said:

I can see the conservative party surviving the referendum, with a change of leadership - but I can't see the labour party doing so - almost all their mps have opinions repellant to labour voters - who understand this clearly now.

No, in some ways a Leave vote solves Labour's problems, Corbyn was anti EU for most of his career anyway, there will be no prospect of replacing him with a Remainer and it also solves the UKIP problem. The Tories will pick a more rightwing leader and we will be back to 1980s politics, Old Labour v Thatcherite Tories in a UK outside the EU

If Remain win narrowly both Labour and the Tories have problems from a resurgent UKIP

No because although Corbyn is an outer he still thinks Labour voters are waycist and will just offer to chuck some cash at the problem.

His MPs also think that solves the problem, because what everyone wants is to live in a concrete jungle not speaking the same language as their next door neighbour.

Yes but immigration will no longer be a major issue with the UK outside the EU and a rightwing Tory government cracking down on immigration. The battle will be on the economy, leftwing Labour v rightwing Tory

BenedictWhite said:

John_M said:

BenedictWhite said:

Sean_F said:

another_richard said:

Thinking about the Cameroons abuse of 'Little Englanders' makes me wonder if their interest is in Britain rather than the British people.

The likes of Cameron and Osborne (ditto for Blair and Milibands) think of themselves as 'Masters of the Universe' and feel at home in 'world cities' and moving and shaking with similar people around the world.

But how much interest do they have and empathy towards their own core voters (EdM could barely stand to be in Doncaster for more than five minutes) throughout England or those swing voters in Nuneaton or Ilkeston or Cannock where elections are decided.

Instead if they think in global terms then people throughout the world might be deemed as deserving to live in a 'world city' and these incomers would also have the advantages of accepting lower pay and being more servile than the oiks up the M1.

All a bit rambling but I wonder if you offered the choice to our political and business 'elite' of replacing half the British people with a random sample from around the world whether they would agree.

There are two things that the Masters of the Universe cherish:-

1. Supranational forms of government
2. Mass migration of peoples.

Perhaps they are about to learn that the masses don't cherish these things.

Quite. I just don't get why anyone on the left has any truck with this either.

I would hope all Tories would want to look after their electorate.

Suzanne Moore had a very good piece in the Guardian wondering precisely that.

Good. It's high time people realised we have to look after our people here first. We also need to help develop (with trade) the developing world as well.

I can't recall where I read it...the Spectator? Something along the lines that metropolitan Labour are universalists, whereas their traditional WWC supporters are communitarians. Pretty flashy, high falutin', big-city language to this yokel, but it does make sense.

Sean_F said:

John_M said:

alex. said:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/10/president-trump-brexit-which-worse-britain-votes-leave-hammer-blow-peace

You don't have to agree with it, but it isn't an argument that can be dismissed IMO. People take peace in Europe for granted, and some are even actively looking forward to the EU breaking up in the aftermath of a UK exit. But what do they see a continental Europe not bound together by the EU looking like?

Even if you don't believe that Europe has learned its lesson, I think there are a number of factors that make a future European war distinctly unlikely:

1. NATO. NATO remains the main European military alliance, whether we're in or out of the EU.
2. Warfighting capability. France has 400ish MBTs, the UK, Germany and Italy 200ish. No EU country has the ordnance capability for any kind of sustained conflict (other than essentially light infantry fighting). Modern weapons are very capable but they're built for a particular kind of warfare.
3. Social mores. Does anyone, anywhere think that war is glorious? Would any European public support a war?
4. Economic advantage. The motives for war are obviously manifold, but modern economies don't require lebensraum, and a global resource base makes the idea of invading (say) Germany for the Ruhr coal fields seem a little quaint.

Add, age.

Violence is a young persons' activity. If the median age in a country is 40-45 years, we're not likely to start killing each other.

As long most large countries of Europe are parliamentary democracies, there will never be a war, only if a dictator takes over a reasonably powerful country does it become possible.

Anyone seen these warnings?

Louise Mensch @LouiseMensch
On postal votes, it's disgraceful that Stronger In campaigners are signalling results with their dire public warnings not to talk about it

Scott_P said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Won't any remainers tell us what part they want us to play in the EU becoming a state?

No part.

That's why we have to stay.

See yes Minster for details

It was a wonderful strategy. Alas, QMV has scotched it. Also, the writers of Yes Minister should have been tried for treason for disclosing such a precious national secret .

James Forsyth Verified account @JGForsyth
A last thought about tonight, a campaign that thought it was clearly ahead wouldn’t have been as aggressive and personal in debate as IN was

BenedictWhite said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
Tory Inners keen for Labour to get more air time to win over their people. Then they all say immigration isn't an issue. How does that help?

Labour:

"We're not listening! We're not listening!
We're not listening over here!
We're not listening over here!

Rinse and repeat.

Tom Watson did say on the 1 PM radio 4 news that Labour would have an answer on immigration by polling day. He sounded scared. (Good)

Polling day 2020 or 2025?

Scott_P said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Won't any remainers tell us what part they want us to play in the EU becoming a state?

No part.

That's why we have to stay.

See yes Minster for details

Problem is that the Mandelson set still think we should join the Euro and keep giving up power to the EU.

MP_SE said:

https://twitter.com/montie/status/741339366409306112

Ooooooooooooo....

John_M said:

BenedictWhite said:

John_M said:

BenedictWhite said:

Sean_F said:

another_richard said:

Thinking about the Cameroons abuse of 'Little Englanders' makes me wonder if their interest is in Britain rather than the British people.

The likes of Cameron and Osborne (ditto for Blair and Milibands) think of themselves as 'Masters of the Universe' and feel at home in 'world cities' and moving and shaking with similar people around the world.

But how much interest do they have and empathy towards their own core voters (EdM could barely stand to be in Doncaster for more than five minutes) throughout England or those swing voters in Nuneaton or Ilkeston or Cannock where elections are decided.

Instead if they think in global terms then people throughout the world might be deemed as deserving to live in a 'world city' and these incomers would also have the advantages of accepting lower pay and being more servile than the oiks up the M1.

All a bit rambling but I wonder if you offered the choice to our political and business 'elite' of replacing half the British people with a random sample from around the world whether they would agree.

There are two things that the Masters of the Universe cherish:-

1. Supranational forms of government
2. Mass migration of peoples.

Perhaps they are about to learn that the masses don't cherish these things.

Quite. I just don't get why anyone on the left has any truck with this either.

I would hope all Tories would want to look after their electorate.

Suzanne Moore had a very good piece in the Guardian wondering precisely that.

Good. It's high time people realised we have to look after our people here first. We also need to help develop (with trade) the developing world as well.

I can't recall where I read it...the Spectator? Something along the lines that metropolitan Labour are universalists, whereas their traditional WWC supporters are communitarians. Pretty flashy, high falutin', big-city language to this yokel, but it does make sense.

Well, there are too many on the left who don't like real people. What can you do. With the right Conservative party they could (over a generation or two) be made solid Tories.

Tim_B said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tim_B said:

Good Grief -

having spent a week trying to avoid tasteless fawning Muhammad Ali coverage, and having survived the best part of an earlier week avoiding the FX dramatization of OJ's trial (featuring John Travolta), ESPN begins tomorrow a 5 part documentary "OJ:Made in America."

All EU referendum all the time? I can only dream of such a wondrous prospect.

Not excited for the latest installment of top gear?

Not really - until they get rid of Evans, stop having musical chairs for the team - first Sabine then Eddie etc - the fundamental problem remains. Sabine plus Matt plus A.N. Other would do the trick. Even Lance Armstrong would be a step up from Evans.

However we are promised major changes for episode 3 - the studio segments of which apparently shoot today - following 'feedback'. We'll see.

The best thing they can do with Chris Evans is to put him into a box - like this, which is more exciting than Top Gear...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbbkDiuz9fw

Like him or loathe him, that man (and indeed, whoever identified what chemistry would work and assembled the team*) is genius.

* Do wonder how Jason Dawe feels when he sees how much Amazon is reportedly shelling out.

The question facing us now is one of survival. The pound is already down 10%, disastrous for a country that imports far more than it exports. At least two million will go into negative equity and unemployment will rapidly rise. We need to think how we will cope with a twenty year recession and permanent real economic decline. We face some very tough choices.

Scott_P said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Won't any remainers tell us what part they want us to play in the EU becoming a state?

No part.

That's why we have to stay.

See yes Minster for details

Do you really believe that's why the political establishment want us to remain?

Seriously?

Cross your heart, and hope to die?

HYUFD said:

BenedictWhite said:

HYUFD said:

PAW said:

I can see the conservative party surviving the referendum, with a change of leadership - but I can't see the labour party doing so - almost all their mps have opinions repellant to labour voters - who understand this clearly now.

No, in some ways a Leave vote solves Labour's problems, Corbyn was anti EU for most of his career anyway, there will be no prospect of replacing him with a Remainer and it also solves the UKIP problem. The Tories will pick a more rightwing leader and we will be back to 1980s politics, Old Labour v Thatcherite Tories in a UK outside the EU

If Remain win narrowly both Labour and the Tories have problems from a resurgent UKIP

No because although Corbyn is an outer he still thinks Labour voters are waycist and will just offer to chuck some cash at the problem.

His MPs also think that solves the problem, because what everyone wants is to live in a concrete jungle not speaking the same language as their next door neighbour.

Yes but immigration will no longer be a major issue with the UK outside the EU and a rightwing Tory government cracking down on immigration. The battle will be on the economy, leftwing Labour v rightwing Tory

Why do you assume a Tory government would crack down on immigration? This is the big lie at the heart of the Leave campaign (more so that their apparent wish to spend loads of money on the NHS). They know our current and future plans for economic growth are predicated on immigration. But they don't have any credible replacement economic growth plan (all this stuff about "points systems" and "skilled migrants" is rubbish - the real shortages are and will be in unskilled labour). When push comes to shove future governments will continue to foster high levels of immigration such as is needed for the economy. So if the numbers come down, it will have nothing to do with 'cracking down' and everything to do with trying to present them in a different way. Of course, when leaving the EU leaves to a lower level of (pensioner) emigration they will have an extra factor to take account of in the net figures.

Fenman said:

The question facing us now is one of survival. The pound is already down 10%, disastrous for a country that imports far more than it exports. At least two million will go into negative equity and unemployment will rapidly rise. We need to think how we will cope with a twenty year recession and permanent real economic decline. We face some very tough choices.

Well a much lower Pound and higher interest rates will do me a power of good thank you.

Edit: and in my view the rest of us too. We have a huge trade deficit and that needs correcting. A lower Pound will help. House prices are nuts and as has been evidenced by BHS and Tara pension are currently utterly bombed out. Higher interest rates will help both situations.

Just a tip to wannabe hooligans...if you are going to don't wear a bright orange t-shirt among a load of people wearing white...

BenedictWhite said:

HYUFD said:

BenedictWhite said:

HYUFD said:

PAW said:

I can see the conservative party surviving the referendum, with a change of leadership - but I can't see the labour party doing so - almost all their mps have opinions repellant to labour voters - who understand this clearly now.

No, in some ways a Leave vote solves Labour's problems, Corbyn was anti EU for most of his career anyway, there will be no prospect of replacing him with a Remainer and it also solves the UKIP problem. The Tories will pick a more rightwing leader and we will be back to 1980s politics, Old Labour v Thatcherite Tories in a UK outside the EU

If Remain win narrowly both Labour and the Tories have problems from a resurgent UKIP

No because although Corbyn is an outer he still thinks Labour voters are waycist and will just offer to chuck some cash at the problem.

His MPs also think that solves the problem, because what everyone wants is to live in a concrete jungle not speaking the same language as their next door neighbour.

Yes but immigration will no longer be a major issue with the UK outside the EU and a rightwing Tory government cracking down on immigration. The battle will be on the economy, leftwing Labour v rightwing Tory

Well no, because there are too many in Labour who would want open immigration and their voters now know it.

They have known it since Blair it depends on the economy, if unemployment goes up post Brexit but immigration goes down then a Corbynite Labour Party has more to play with

Fenman said:

The question facing us now is one of survival. The pound is already down 10%, disastrous for a country that imports far more than it exports. At least two million will go into negative equity and unemployment will rapidly rise. We need to think how we will cope with a twenty year recession and permanent real economic decline. We face some very tough choices.

A twenty year recession? I do hope this post is tongue in cheek.

RodCrosby said:

puzzle: if women take twice as long as men to use a public loo (as they do), what is the average length of the queue at the women's loo, compared to queue at the men's?

Can't tell - depends on number of facilities available and the male: female ratio of people in the vicinity and the average length of time between calls of nature (at least).

If you give me a £1,000,000 grant EU (are you listening?) I can do some research.

Fenman said:

Bernstein's forecasting a 30% drop in property prices with Brexit. Let's hope it's not that bad.

Lwet's hope it is :-)

Fenman said:

The question facing us now is one of survival. The pound is already down 10%, disastrous for a country that imports far more than it exports. At least two million will go into negative equity and unemployment will rapidly rise. We need to think how we will cope with a twenty year recession and permanent real economic decline. We face some very tough choices.

The £ down 10%? Against what?

bigjohnowls said:

A leave win best result for Lab.

4 Lab leave votes already cast in my house

Good stuff. Hope you are ok by the way.

david_herdson said:

OK. Confused. ORB give Leave a 10-point lead and Remain is still 4/11 at best and as long as 2/7 with some bookies. Even if it's an outlier on dodgy methodology, those odds suggest a kind of certainty that I sure am not feeling.

Polls are rubbish. Well off people support Remain. Nobody I know supports Leave.

Fill your boots betting against that mentality.

tlg86 said:

Fenman said:

The pound is already down 10%, disastrous for a country that imports far more than it exports.

No, a falling pound helps a country that imports more than it exports. I guess what you mean is that British consumers won't like a weaker pound.

I find this falling pound thing a bit ridiculous. Only a few years ago the BOE was spending millions of pounds trying to get the pound to and now we are told it would be a disaster.

Fenman said:

The question facing us now is one of survival. The pound is already down 10%, disastrous for a country that imports far more than it exports. At least two million will go into negative equity and unemployment will rapidly rise. We need to think how we will cope with a twenty year recession and permanent real economic decline. We face some very tough choices.

Really?

The pound closed this evening at 1.267against the Euro - which is higher than it was for the whole of the period 2009 - 2014 bar a couple of days when it crept up to 1.28

So please, tell me just how disastrous this was for the country.

GarethoftheVale2 said:

tlg86 said:

Fenman said:

The pound is already down 10%, disastrous for a country that imports far more than it exports.

No, a falling pound helps a country that imports more than it exports. I guess what you mean is that British consumers won't like a weaker pound.

I find this falling pound thing a bit ridiculous. Only a few years ago the BOE was spending millions of pounds trying to get the pound to and now we are told it would be a disaster.

Exactly. All that QE increasing supply lowering the price ( exchange rate )- and screwing pension mind too.

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/741371602043080705

Imagine if you were a Euro establishmentarian of the Clarke/Clegg/Blair type.
Exactly how p'd off would you currently feel towards dear old Dave today? You are about to loose the lot (45 years worth of planning) for a referendum that didn't need to be called and which no one really wanted.
History makes fools of us all.
Henry VIII wanted a divorce to bed a younger woman and triggered the reformation (he could have had and married Anne anyway).
Cameron wanted to be PM for just a little bit longer and triggered our exit from the EU (and brought his premiership to a premature end).
Forget whatever happens on the 23rd of June, can anyone honestly see England as part of a closely integrated European block? That is what they must achieve (and fair play to them if they really want it). We will never be a part of it. If we don't leave on the 23rd (I think we will) we will be off sooner rather than later.

dr_spyn said:

twitter.com/suttonnick/status/741371602043080705

James Dyson coming out for brexit. That's a bit of a shock as his business does very well from making his expensive gadgets in eastern Europe. The current setup is very good for his business.

Uh. Captained Giroud rather than Payet in the fantasy footie...

REMAIN latest strategy

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt//

BenedictWhite said:

Fenman said:

Bernstein's forecasting a 30% drop in property prices with Brexit. Let's hope it's not that bad.

There are a lot of people hoping it is that good. It will not be, but never mind.

A 30% drop in House Prices doesn't automatically make houses more affordable. Depends on the affordability of mortgages. Negative Equity destroyed the Tory party's electoral chances for 20 years. Leave may be tentatively trying to carefully target a message of lower house prices to certain demographics, but it would be disastrous for them if a post Brexit crash was associated with the decision to leave.

BenedictWhite said:

HYUFD said:

BenedictWhite said:

John_M said:

BenedictWhite said:

John_M said:

BenedictWhite said:

Sean_F said:

another_richard said:

Thinking about the Cameroons abuse of 'Little Englanders' makes me wonder if their interest is in Britain rather than the British people.

The likes of Cameron and Osborne (ditto for Blair and Milibands) think of themselves as 'Masters of the Universe' and feel at home in 'world cities' and moving and shaking with similar people around the world.

But how much interest do they have and empathy towards their own core voters (EdM could barely stand to be in Doncaster for more than five minutes) throughout England or those swing voters in Nuneaton or Ilkeston or Cannock where elections are decided.

Instead if they think in global terms then people throughout the world might be deemed as deserving to live in a 'world city' and these incomers would also have the advantages of accepting lower pay and being more servile than the oiks up the M1.

All a bit rambling but I wonder if you offered the choice to our political and business 'elite' of replacing half the British people with a random sample from around the world whether they would agree.

There are two things that the Masters of the Universe cherish:-

1. Supranational forms of government
2. Mass migration of peoples.

Perhaps they are about to learn that the masses don't cherish these things.

Quite. I just don't get why anyone on the left has any truck with this either.

I would hope all Tories would want to look after their electorate.

Suzanne Moore had a very good piece in the Guardian wondering precisely that.

Good. It's high time people realised we have to look after our people here first. We also need to help develop (with trade) the developing world as well.

I can't recall where I read it...the Spectator? Something along the lines that metropolitan Labour are universalists, whereas their traditional WWC supporters are communitarians. Pretty flashy, high falutin', big-city language to this yokel, but it does make sense.

Well, there are too many on the left who don't like real people. What can you do. With the right Conservative party they could (over a generation or two) be made solid Tories.

They could vote for a populist conservative party but that could see some middle class Tories switch from them to the LDs or a more moderate Labour Party

1. It doesn't have to be "populist"

2. If it captures and retains mondeo man, you don't need quite so many middle class soft Tories.

Mondeo man is not a working class voter, the Tories would beat an Old Labour Party more often than not but Labour would have a third of the vote or so

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

BenedictWhite said:

HYUFD said:

PAW said:

I can see the conservative party surviving the referendum, with a change of leadership - but I can't see the labour party doing so - almost all their mps have opinions repellant to labour voters - who understand this clearly now.

No, in some ways a Leave vote solves Labour's problems, Corbyn was anti EU for most of his career anyway, there will be no prospect of replacing him with a Remainer and it also solves the UKIP problem. The Tories will pick a more rightwing leader and we will be back to 1980s politics, Old Labour v Thatcherite Tories in a UK outside the EU

If Remain win narrowly both Labour and the Tories have problems from a resurgent UKIP

No because although Corbyn is an outer he still thinks Labour voters are waycist and will just offer to chuck some cash at the problem.

His MPs also think that solves the problem, because what everyone wants is to live in a concrete jungle not speaking the same language as their next door neighbour.

Yes but immigration will no longer be a major issue with the UK outside the EU and a rightwing Tory government cracking down on immigration. The battle will be on the economy, leftwing Labour v rightwing Tory

Why do you assume a Tory government would crack down on immigration? This is the big lie at the heart of the Leave campaign (more so that their apparent wish to spend loads of money on the NHS). They know our current and future plans for economic growth are predicated on immigration. But they don't have any credible replacement economic growth plan (all this stuff about "points systems" and "skilled migrants" is rubbish - the real shortages are and will be in unskilled labour). When push comes to shove future governments will continue to foster high levels of immigration such as is needed for the economy. So if the numbers come down, it will have nothing to do with 'cracking down' and everything to do with trying to present them in a different way. Of course, when leaving the EU leaves to a lower level of (pensioner) emigration they will have an extra factor to take account of in the net figures.

We will see if and when it arrives