It feels more and more like the groupthink that led to NOM being the favourite in May last year. I still think that it will be remain by a whisker, but certainly there is a better than 30% chance of a leave vote.
OK so REMAIN identify they have a problem with working class Labour voters backing REMAIN. Their solution is to have Ed Miliband at the front of their campaign today. Is Ed really the best person to persuade these voters? FFS
Does anybody know where I can get some bloody labour leave leaflets from? I am willing to pay I want to deliver them in my area to convince Labour voters to swich and this poll seems to say we can get them to.
I've phoned the number on the website but nothing. Please, thanx.
Also, Ipsos Mori have issued a note about the methodological changes for the next poll which goes into the field this weekend, and is out next Wednesday.
I would like to give some analysis, but I'm knackered, busy, and really don't want to think about politics/polling/betting/Eu Referendum for one night this week.
I felt years ago, back when I was a reluctant Remainer, that Leave would win, and even argued with pessimistic UKippers, particularly those who felt any referendum would be rigged. I felt that way as I felt the core appeals of Leave only only magnify as the day drew nearer, and had enough big name cheerleaders and media supporters, even if the media overall and the establishment was overwhelmingly for Remain.
I feel like that is still the case. The IndyRef Yessers never had such polling bounty this far out, and even this is an extreme poll, it seems at worst it'll be bloody close.
Talking of vows there is one thing the EU can do, offer us a proper emergency brake, where we can temporarily halt immigration when it exceeds some percentage of the population.
It will be illegal, silly, not in the treaties, blah blah, but the EU has a history of just making shit up when things get really hard.
Why not now?
That would still win it for Dave.
I can see the Eurocrats having to work through the weekend (the horror!) to formulate some Associate status to offer us.
Meanwhile, Cameron will be getting some packing cases ordered. And sewing herring into the Downing Street curtains, ready for Boris' arrival....
Talking of vows there is one thing the EU can do, offer us a proper emergency brake, where we can temporarily halt immigration when it exceeds some percentage of the population.
It will be illegal, silly, not in the treaties, blah blah, but the EU has a history of just making shit up when things get really hard.
Why not now?
That would still win it for Dave.
Depending how many people have postal voted it may already be too late
OK so REMAIN identify they have a problem with working class Labour voters backing REMAIN. Their solution is to have Ed Miliband at the front of their campaign today. Is Ed really the best person to persuade these voters? FFS
The same Mr Miliband who wasn't seen as an electoral asset by same cohort of voters last year?
Talking of vows there is one thing the EU can do, offer us a proper emergency brake, where we can temporarily halt immigration when it exceeds some percentage of the population.
It will be illegal, silly, not in the treaties, blah blah, but the EU has a history of just making shit up when things get really hard.
Why not now?
That would still win it for Dave.
I can see the Eurocrats having to work through the weekend (the horror!) to formulate some Associate status to offer us.
Meanwhile, Cameron will be getting some packing cases ordered. And sewing herring into the Downing Street curtains, ready for Boris' arrival....
My view is the French would be glad to get shot of us.
I felt years ago, back when I was a reluctant Remainer, that Leave would win, and even argued with pessimistic UKippers, particularly those who felt any referendum would be rigged. I felt that way as I felt the core appeals of Leave only only magnify as the day drew nearer, and had enough big name cheerleaders and media supporters, even if the media overall and the establishment was overwhelmingly for Remain.
I feel like that is still the case. The IndyRef Yessers never had such polling bounty this far out, and even this is an extreme poll, it seems at worst it'll be bloody close.
That Yougov had Yes 51% No 49% and No won 55% to 45%, so on the same swingback Remain would win 51% to 49%
FPT: Mr. Mark, well, that was the real reason why Pluto 'isn't a planet anymore'. Ahem
On-topic: Ode to Joy always makes me think of Die Hard, the best Christmas film in the world.
Still 13 days to go. No point getting giddy over one poll.
Die Hard is brilliant, but shares the honours for best Christmas film in the world with "Gremlins". Hans Gruber was bad-ass, but he never got to put anybody in a blender....
It's quite funny in some ways that Dave has spent all of his political capital on trying to win over wavering Conservatives and it could be Labour voters that lead us out of the EU door. He has also alienated quite a few members that I know, people who would previously have backed him post-Leave as long as he dumped Osborne and a few others in the remain camp are now turning against him. I think this is why the remain campaign is morphing into the stop Boris campaign.
Talking of vows there is one thing the EU can do, offer us a proper emergency brake, where we can temporarily halt immigration when it exceeds some percentage of the population.
It will be illegal, silly, not in the treaties, blah blah, but the EU has a history of just making shit up when things get really hard.
Why not now?
That would still win it for Dave.
I can see the Eurocrats having to work through the weekend (the horror!) to formulate some Associate status to offer us.
Meanwhile, Cameron will be getting some packing cases ordered. And sewing herring into the Downing Street curtains, ready for Boris' arrival....
My view is the French would be glad to get shot of us.
Denmark and Sweden will follow which means three rich contributor nations are out of the EU.
It feels more and more like the groupthink that led to NOM being the favourite in May last year. I still think that it will be remain by a whisker, but certainly there is a better than 30% chance of a leave vote.
Total Groupthink. I find it extraordinary that Remain remains the favourite. I could never see it.
Could be as close as the clash between Vitellius and Vespasian.
At the Battle of Bedriacum, the two armies were locked in a very close contest. As dawn broke, the legions of Vespasian, having adopted a local custom from the East, turned to salute the sun. The forces of Vitellius thought they were greeting reinforcements, lost heart, and shortly thereafter surrendered.
This is either an outlying poll, or something very significant could be happening. Very worrying times for Britain's economy, cohesion and global influence.
But it accords with 1. the trend, and 2. all the anecdotal evidence - it's Labour voters who are looking mutinous and LEAVERY
Yes, but they also probably won't vote.
I'll believe Remain think they're seriously losing when we see some form of capitulation/compromise from Cameron. He could put together a package of measures without the EU that would change the mood music.
Mr. Mark, Gruber is what lifted the film from being merely good to excellent. Heroes are often defined by villains (Die Hard went from a charismatic German superthief to a disgruntled ex-IT worker...).
This is either an outlying poll, or something very significant could be happening. Very worrying times for Britain's economy, cohesion and global influence.
Talking Britain down is just what Remain needs.... Have some faith in the gumption of the great British public to make opportunity by the horns and run where the EU can't even waddle.
But it accords with 1. the trend, and 2. all the anecdotal evidence - it's Labour voters who are looking mutinous and LEAVERY
Yes, but they also probably won't vote.
I'll believe Remain think they're seriously losing when we see some form of capitulation/compromise from Cameron. He could put together a package of measures without the EU that would change the mood music.
Like what? That is believable?
This is a massive lead fro leave.
It is just a poll, and polls schmolls... but there has been a trend to leave.
OK so REMAIN identify they have a problem with working class Labour voters backing REMAIN. Their solution is to have Ed Miliband at the front of their campaign today. Is Ed really the best person to persuade these voters? FFS
The same Mr Miliband who wasn't seen as an electoral asset by same cohort of voters last year?
Brown would be more effective, he is the senior Labour figure who goes down best with the white working class, even Gillian Duffy said she respected him despite their disagreement. Could he save 2 referendums?
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
As long as he delivers a win, it's job done for him. I still think he'll do it. Labour voters might be mutinous but if they're like the PLP, they'll bottle it at the last minute.
If Leave wins and Gove backs Boris, then Boris will walk into Downing Street.
But could Gove back Leadsom? If he does, could she come from nowhere to the top job in a few weeks? Must be a chance.
Earlier on this week, I was told by someone who knows their stuff, if Dave goes on June 24th, Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign manager
Pulling. Your. Leg....
Was the person who in April 2015 told me the Tories were at least 50-75 seats ahead of Labour in England & Wales, when all the polls were showing it neck and neck.
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
As long as he delivers a win, it's job done for him. I still think he'll do it. Labour voters might be mutinous but if they're like the PLP, they'll bottle it at the last minute.
They're not.
The WWC are fed up with being called waycists ect by people who read the Guardian. They're angry and rightly so.
If Leave wins and Gove backs Boris, then Boris will walk into Downing Street.
But could Gove back Leadsom? If he does, could she come from nowhere to the top job in a few weeks? Must be a chance.
Earlier on this week, I was told by someone who knows their stuff, if Dave goes on June 24th, Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign manager
Pulling. Your. Leg....
Was the person who in April 2015 told me the Tories were at least 50-75 seats ahead of Labour in England & Wales, when all the polls were showing it neck and neck.
I'm really upset about this. I knew the decision by StrongerIn to go so negative would be a backfire. They have stopped making practical arguments and instead they have spent their time talking about how awful Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are. People are not fools. They know this is a referendum on EU membership and not on the men leading the Brexit campaign. We need a positive vision for the European Union and we are not hearing it.
I'm really upset about this. I knew the decision by StrongerIn to go so negative would be a backfire. They have stopped making practical arguments and instead they have spent their time talking about how awful Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are. People are not fools. They know this is a referendum on EU membership and not on the men leading the Brexit campaign. We need a positive vision for the European Union and we are not hearing it.
I did say that Stronger In had taken the wrong lessons from the Scottish Indy ref.
Paul Mason is waiting for the vow, It isn't going to happen.
I'm really upset about this. I knew the decision by StrongerIn to go so negative would be a backfire. They have stopped making practical arguments and instead they have spent their time talking about how awful Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are. People are not fools. They know this is a referendum on EU membership and not on the men leading the Brexit campaign. We need a positive vision for the European Union and we are not hearing it.
Something better than lower airfares and roaming charges.
I'm really upset about this. I knew the decision by StrongerIn to go so negative would be a backfire. They have stopped making practical arguments and instead they have spent their time talking about how awful Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are. People are not fools. They know this is a referendum on EU membership and not on the men leading the Brexit campaign. We need a positive vision for the European Union and we are not hearing it.
When you say positive vision, does that entail full endorsement of the endgame of full political union, or still stopping short of that but praising all it has done to date?
I'm really upset about this. I knew the decision by StrongerIn to go so negative would be a backfire. They have stopped making practical arguments and instead they have spent their time talking about how awful Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are. People are not fools. They know this is a referendum on EU membership and not on the men leading the Brexit campaign. We need a positive vision for the European Union and we are not hearing it.
I can sympathise absolutely with that. I feel the same way about the Leave campaign. It just seems at the moment that the Leave campaign is slightly less absolutely rubbish than the Remain campaign. But there is not much between the two to be honest.
I know which side of the argument I want to win. I just wish both campaigns could lose because whichever wins people are going to think that is a successful template for future campaigns.
I'm really upset about this. I knew the decision by StrongerIn to go so negative would be a backfire. They have stopped making practical arguments and instead they have spent their time talking about how awful Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are. People are not fools. They know this is a referendum on EU membership and not on the men leading the Brexit campaign. We need a positive vision for the European Union and we are not hearing it.
I can sympathise absolutely with that. I feel the same way about the Leave campaign. It just seems at the moment that the Leave campaign is slightly less absolutely rubbish than the Remain campaign. But there is not much between the two to be honest.
I know which side of the argument I want to win. I just wish both campaigns could lose because whichever wins people are going to think that is a successful template for future campaigns.
Did you watch the debate last night? I thought Leave put forward a very civilized case.
I'm really upset about this. I knew the decision by StrongerIn to go so negative would be a backfire. They have stopped making practical arguments and instead they have spent their time talking about how awful Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are. People are not fools. They know this is a referendum on EU membership and not on the men leading the Brexit campaign. We need a positive vision for the European Union and we are not hearing it.
I can sympathise absolutely with that. I feel the same way about the Leave campaign. It just seems at the moment that the Leave campaign is slightly less absolutely rubbish than the Remain campaign. But there is not much between the two to be honest.
I know which side of the argument I want to win. I just wish both campaigns could lose because whichever wins people are going to think that is a successful template for future campaigns.
I must agree. The 'Little England' slogan seems designed to irritate people, and Rudd's comments about Boris Johnson were thoroughly despicable.
Mr. White, Mason's taking the Sturgeon line: he wants to vote to stay in [although he dislikes the EU] because it can help mitigate what our democratically elected government can do.
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
As long as he delivers a win, it's job done for him. I still think he'll do it. Labour voters might be mutinous but if they're like the PLP, they'll bottle it at the last minute.
If Cameron delivers in heroin that energizes UKIP or fractures the Conservatives which in turn leads to voting reform to deal with the new multi party setup that Britain will have which then results in weak governments which gives the impetus for Scottish independence then... well it's a scenario.
I must agree. The 'Little England' slogan seems designed to irritate people, and Rudd's comments about Boris Johnson were thoroughly despicable.
Mr. White, Mason's taking the Sturgeon line: he wants to vote to stay in [although he dislikes the EU] because it can help mitigate what our democratically elected government can do.
The idea that we need the EU to moderate our democracy is bonkers especially as they are treating unions in Sweden badly.
I haven't a clue as to whether Romania's membership is dodgy, but I bet there are people thinking that Farage has a point when he says "well they let Romania in, why won't they let Turkey?"
But it accords with 1. the trend, and 2. all the anecdotal evidence - it's Labour voters who are looking mutinous and LEAVERY
Yes, but they also probably won't vote.
I'll believe Remain think they're seriously losing when we see some form of capitulation/compromise from Cameron. He could put together a package of measures without the EU that would change the mood music.
Like what? That is believable?
This is a massive lead fro leave.
It is just a poll, and polls schmolls... but there has been a trend to leave.
Serious reform of the welfare system, making it contributory rather than universal. Leaving the ECHR and British bill of rights. A third thing. Everything sounds better in threes.
It wouldn't be without issues. It would break up the Remain coalition of lefties and Tories for a start. But I think they could cobble together enough to ease people's guilt and get them to the polls for Remain - like Scotland. The fact there are no signs of this are surely a signal they aren't uncertain enough of victory.
Mr. Perdix, I wonder if many Labour voters will fail to turn out.
SNP types might be in two minds as well (aside from pro-independence chaps like Mr. G who wants both Scottish independence and to leave the EU anyway).
But it accords with 1. the trend, and 2. all the anecdotal evidence - it's Labour voters who are looking mutinous and LEAVERY
Yes, but they also probably won't vote.
I'll believe Remain think they're seriously losing when we see some form of capitulation/compromise from Cameron. He could put together a package of measures without the EU that would change the mood music.
Like what? That is believable?
This is a massive lead fro leave.
It is just a poll, and polls schmolls... but there has been a trend to leave.
Serious reform of the welfare system, making it contributory rather than universal. Leaving the ECHR and British bill of rights. A third thing. Everything sounds better in threes.
It wouldn't be without issues. It would break up the Remain coalition of lefties and Tories for a start. But I think they could cobble together enough to ease people's guilt and get them to the polls for Remain - like Scotland. The fact there are no signs of this are surely a signal they aren't uncertain enough of victory.
If he did that all hell would break loose and no one will believe he would follow through with it anyway
But it accords with 1. the trend, and 2. all the anecdotal evidence - it's Labour voters who are looking mutinous and LEAVERY
Yes, but they also probably won't vote.
I'll believe Remain think they're seriously losing when we see some form of capitulation/compromise from Cameron. He could put together a package of measures without the EU that would change the mood music.
Like what? That is believable?
This is a massive lead fro leave.
It is just a poll, and polls schmolls... but there has been a trend to leave.
Serious reform of the welfare system, making it contributory rather than universal. Leaving the ECHR and British bill of rights. A third thing. Everything sounds better in threes.
It wouldn't be without issues. It would break up the Remain coalition of lefties and Tories for a start. But I think they could cobble together enough to ease people's guilt and get them to the polls for Remain - like Scotland. The fact there are no signs of this are surely a signal they aren't uncertain enough of victory.
Sorry, the change to benefits will lose at least as many voters as it gains. the ECHR thing is a non starter inside the EU as well.
I haven't a clue as to whether Romania's membership is dodgy, but I bet there are people thinking that Farage has a point when he says "well they let Romania in, why won't they let Turkey?"
I believe the point is that Romania & Hungary were told they couldn't join until they had sorted out the rampant corruption & organised crime...and they didn't / haven't and they still let them in.
Comments
I remind you all, I am on:
Leave to win - 4/1 (£100)
Leave to win with sub-65% turnout - 7/1 (£100)
Leave to win with 65%+ turnout - 8/1 (£50)
I simply cannot believe these odds were ever available.
Less-spamming and more content and our 'lawyer' would be less the butt-of-our-jokes.
OK: Access is via the Vanilla forum (due to post-preference). Story visible via link (but posted by others already).
On-topic: Ode to Joy always makes me think of Die Hard, the best Christmas film in the world.
Still 13 days to go. No point getting giddy over one poll.
I've phoned the number on the website but nothing. Please, thanx.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/newsevents/latestnews/1775/Statement-on-polling-methodology-and-turnout-tests-in-the-EU-referendum.aspx#.V1r7qbwY7OI.twitter
I would like to give some analysis, but I'm knackered, busy, and really don't want to think about politics/polling/betting/Eu Referendum for one night this week.
I feel like that is still the case. The IndyRef Yessers never had such polling bounty this far out, and even this is an extreme poll, it seems at worst it'll be bloody close.
Meanwhile, Cameron will be getting some packing cases ordered. And sewing herring into the Downing Street curtains, ready for Boris' arrival....
They've Shafted the EU
6pm: Remain 1.35
After ORB: Remain 1.43
Now: Remain 1.39
PB Tories.. so predicable (yet somehow always right)
At the Battle of Bedriacum, the two armies were locked in a very close contest. As dawn broke, the legions of Vespasian, having adopted a local custom from the East, turned to salute the sun. The forces of Vitellius thought they were greeting reinforcements, lost heart, and shortly thereafter surrendered.
I'll believe Remain think they're seriously losing when we see some form of capitulation/compromise from Cameron. He could put together a package of measures without the EU that would change the mood music.
But could Gove back Leadsom? If he does, could she come from nowhere to the top job in a few weeks? Must be a chance.
A new PB rule?
Please take a moment to think of all the fags Cameron will be hitting this evening.
This is a massive lead fro leave.
It is just a poll, and polls schmolls... but there has been a trend to leave.
Right I must depart, earlier on this after I promised someone that I wouldn't visit PB until Saturday morning.
The WWC are fed up with being called waycists ect by people who read the Guardian. They're angry and rightly so.
Paul Mason is waiting for the vow, It isn't going to happen.
Well put. Mr, Ms Starfall and welcome.
I know which side of the argument I want to win. I just wish both campaigns could lose because whichever wins people are going to think that is a successful template for future campaigns.
I must agree. The 'Little England' slogan seems designed to irritate people, and Rudd's comments about Boris Johnson were thoroughly despicable.
Mr. White, Mason's taking the Sturgeon line: he wants to vote to stay in [although he dislikes the EU] because it can help mitigate what our democratically elected government can do.
If high turnout, Remain wins.
If low turnout, Leave wins.
Dave will survive any confidence vote by his MPs.
It wouldn't be without issues. It would break up the Remain coalition of lefties and Tories for a start. But I think they could cobble together enough to ease people's guilt and get them to the polls for Remain - like Scotland. The fact there are no signs of this are surely a signal they aren't uncertain enough of victory.
SNP types might be in two minds as well (aside from pro-independence chaps like Mr. G who wants both Scottish independence and to leave the EU anyway).
This poll implies it will be a high turnout and leave will win?
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/spiegel-interview-with-wolfgang-schaeuble-on-brexit-a-1096999.html#ref=rss