I am reading the Telegraph article below and I am in disbelief the BSIE campaign wants to respond to this rut by going even more negative and personal. In a campaign based around negativity and cynicism, Leave will win. Remain need to have a positive upbeat message around European co-operation and integration. David Cameron made a big mistake when he spent years saying Europe was terrible, but there's still time to make it up.
Tim was right about Cameron and Osborne, wasn't he? At least Brexit will expose them for the second-raters they have always been. There were some on here who only a short while ago were bestowing greatness on them. Blimey.
I was mightily relieved to have been saved from P.M. Miliband. However, a combination of a lacklustre legislative program, a downright bad budget and Cameron's pathetic EU dissembling have made me long for the coalition. Or even a sensible (Gisela ) Labour administration. </p>
A lack of legislative program seems a bonus to me.
I am reading the Telegraph article below and I am in disbelief the BSIE campaign wants to respond to this rut by going even more negative and personal. In a campaign based around negativity and cynicism, Leave will win. Remain need to have a positive upbeat message around European co-operation and integration. David Cameron made a big mistake when he spent years saying Europe was terrible, but there's still time to make it up.
The bottom line is "the Establishment" simply DON'T KNOW how to make political arguments without resorting to hysterical scaremongering, or by throwing out "the other guy smells of wee" insults.
It is not just limited to the EU. We saw the same with the Scottish referendum, with both main parties in the 2015 election, and with the Establishment candidates in the Labour leadership contest. These guys simply have never learnt how to win a debate with ordinary people, never learnt how to think of persuasive arguments that can move the needle on big issues: they've never HAD to, since most of them have spent most of their lives in Westminster, before being parachuted into safe seats where little persuasion of their constituents was needed to get elected, before then spending their careers insulated in Westminster surrounded by fellow elites. They have simply never developed the skillset of WINNING ARGUMENTS IN THE REAL WORLD that past politicians had to develop.
(3000sqft is 60ft by 50ft. That's a 2-bed flat. A single room in the South East - not London, just the South East - will go for about £350-450pcm. Am I missing something here? Is my maths wrong?)
it's roughly three times the size of a crap semi-detached or flat. it's in a depopulated area of scotland full of crumbling massive victorian villas and nuclear warheads.
The Kansas poll is a certain rogue. But Hillary is soaring ahead anyway. Trump is toast. As I have said over and again. Hillary will win by 300+ in the college.
I am reading the Telegraph article below and I am in disbelief the BSIE campaign wants to respond to this rut by going even more negative and personal. In a campaign based around negativity and cynicism, Leave will win. Remain need to have a positive upbeat message around European co-operation and integration. David Cameron made a big mistake when he spent years saying Europe was terrible, but there's still time to make it up.
The bottom line is "the Establishment" simply DON'T KNOW how to make political arguments without resorting to hysterical scaremongering, or by throwing out "the other guy smells of wee" insults.
It is not just limited to the EU. We saw the same with the Scottish referendum, with both main parties in the 2015 election, and with the Establishment candidates in the Labour leadership contest. These guys simply have never learnt how to win a debate with ordinary people, never learnt how to think of persuasive arguments that can move the needle on big issues: they've never HAD to, since most of them have spent most of their lives in Westminster, before being parachuted into safe seats where little persuasion of their constituents was needed to get elected, before then spending their careers insulated in Westminster surrounded by fellow elites. They have simply never developed the skillset of WINNING ARGUMENTS IN THE REAL WORLD that past politicians had to develop.
Do you know what... I think I agree with you 100%.
There are many MPs who've had to work their way up, and fight but not the leaders these days.
I am reading the Telegraph article below and I am in disbelief the BSIE campaign wants to respond to this rut by going even more negative and personal. In a campaign based around negativity and cynicism, Leave will win. Remain need to have a positive upbeat message around European co-operation and integration. David Cameron made a big mistake when he spent years saying Europe was terrible, but there's still time to make it up.
The bottom line is "the Establishment" simply DON'T KNOW how to make political arguments without resorting to hysterical scaremongering, or by throwing out "the other guy smells of wee" insults.
It is not just limited to the EU. We saw the same with the Scottish referendum, with both main parties in the 2015 election, and with the Establishment candidates in the Labour leadership contest. These guys simply have never learnt how to win a debate with ordinary people, never learnt how to think of persuasive arguments that can move the needle on big issues: they've never HAD to, since most of them have spent most of their lives in Westminster, before being parachuted into safe seats where little persuasion of their constituents was needed to get elected, before then spending their careers insulated in Westminster surrounded by fellow elites. They have simply never developed the skillset of WINNING ARGUMENTS IN THE REAL WORLD that past politicians had to develop.
Indeed, it's all staged managed with multi culti grinning party members in the backdrop. That and the cut'n paste/retweet brigade.
The Kansas poll is a certain rogue. But Hillary is soaring ahead anyway. Trump is toast. As I have said over and again. Hillary will win by 300+ in the college.
Trump was tied with Hillary in Pennsylvania this week, there could be some odd results
I am reading the Telegraph article below and I am in disbelief the BSIE campaign wants to respond to this rut by going even more negative and personal. In a campaign based around negativity and cynicism, Leave will win. Remain need to have a positive upbeat message around European co-operation and integration. David Cameron made a big mistake when he spent years saying Europe was terrible, but there's still time to make it up.
The bottom line is "the Establishment" simply DON'T KNOW how to make political arguments without resorting to hysterical scaremongering, or by throwing out "the other guy smells of wee" insults.
It is not just limited to the EU. We saw the same with the Scottish referendum, with both main parties in the 2015 election, and with the Establishment candidates in the Labour leadership contest. These guys simply have never learnt how to win a debate with ordinary people, never learnt how to think of persuasive arguments that can move the needle on big issues: they've never HAD to, since most of them have spent most of their lives in Westminster, before being parachuted into safe seats where little persuasion of their constituents was needed to get elected, before then spending their careers insulated in Westminster surrounded by fellow elites. They have simply never developed the skillset of WINNING ARGUMENTS IN THE REAL WORLD that past politicians had to develop.
Indeed, it's all staged managed with muli culti grinning party members in the backdrop. That and the cut'n paste/retweet brigade.
Cut n paste / retweet brigade...that news to me as we never get them on here.
(3000sqft is 60ft by 50ft. That's a 2-bed flat. A single room in the South East - not London, just the South East - will go for about £350-450pcm. Am I missing something here? Is my maths wrong?)
it's roughly three times the size of a crap semi-detached or flat. it's in a depopulated area of scotland full of crumbling massive victorian villas and nuclear warheads.
The housing market in England is...somewhat different.
I am reading the Telegraph article below and I am in disbelief the BSIE campaign wants to respond to this rut by going even more negative and personal. In a campaign based around negativity and cynicism, Leave will win. Remain need to have a positive upbeat message around European co-operation and integration. David Cameron made a big mistake when he spent years saying Europe was terrible, but there's still time to make it up.
The bottom line is "the Establishment" simply DON'T KNOW how to make political arguments without resorting to hysterical scaremongering, or by throwing out "the other guy smells of wee" insults.
It is not just limited to the EU. We saw the same with the Scottish referendum, with both main parties in the 2015 election, and with the Establishment candidates in the Labour leadership contest. These guys simply have never learnt how to win a debate with ordinary people, never learnt how to think of persuasive arguments that can move the needle on big issues: they've never HAD to, since most of them have spent most of their lives in Westminster, before being parachuted into safe seats where little persuasion of their constituents was needed to get elected, before then spending their careers insulated in Westminster surrounded by fellow elites. They have simply never developed the skillset of WINNING ARGUMENTS IN THE REAL WORLD that past politicians had to develop.
Indeed, it's all staged managed with multi culti grinning party members in the backdrop. That and the cut'n paste/retweet brigade.
Unless you're at a Labour rally in the 'Muslim community' - in which case it's ladies to the left, men to the right.
Tim was right about Cameron and Osborne, wasn't he? At least Brexit will expose them for the second-raters they have always been. There were some on here who only a short while ago were bestowing greatness on them. Blimey.
I was mightily relieved to have been saved from P.M. Miliband. However, a combination of a lacklustre legislative program, a downright bad budget and Cameron's pathetic EU dissembling have made me long for the coalition. Or even a sensible (Gisela ) Labour administration. </p>
Before the campaign started, I usually defended Cameron, despite being a leaver. I've been a leaver since the creation of the EEA, And, I think I've always been able to marshall a fairly Sked-ish argument for leaving. Now, however, for the first time, I'm starting to think that Leave could win, and all thoughts of possible greater long-term prosperity, democracy, control of fisheries etc has vanished into the background to be replaced by the delicious thought of Cameron conceding defeat and heading off to Brussels to break the news to his mates. Not a particularly pretty motivation, but there you go.
If I'm feeling like this, consider how keen to see him lose some Labour voter from Worksop who's always despised him and his posh mates must feel. No wonder John Mann's seeing some local hostility to Remain.
On another note, if Labour was more John Mann and Gisela Stuart and less Ed Miliband and Tony Blair over the past two decades they'd have been my natural home.
Fwiw, I still fully expect Remain to win, by fair means or foul.
I am reading the Telegraph article below and I am in disbelief the BSIE campaign wants to respond to this rut by going even more negative and personal. In a campaign based around negativity and cynicism, Leave will win. Remain need to have a positive upbeat message around European co-operation and integration. David Cameron made a big mistake when he spent years saying Europe was terrible, but there's still time to make it up.
The bottom line is "the Establishment" simply DON'T KNOW how to make political arguments without resorting to hysterical scaremongering, or by throwing out "the other guy smells of wee" insults.
It is not just limited to the EU. We saw the same with the Scottish referendum, with both main parties in the 2015 election, and with the Establishment candidates in the Labour leadership contest. These guys simply have never learnt how to win a debate with ordinary people, never learnt how to think of persuasive arguments that can move the needle on big issues: they've never HAD to, since most of them have spent most of their lives in Westminster, before being parachuted into safe seats where little persuasion of their constituents was needed to get elected, before then spending their careers insulated in Westminster surrounded by fellow elites. They have simply never developed the skillset of WINNING ARGUMENTS IN THE REAL WORLD that past politicians had to develop.
Indeed, it's all staged managed with multi culti grinning party members in the backdrop. That and the cut'n paste/retweet brigade.
Unless you're at a Labour rally in the 'Muslim community' - in which case it's ladies to the left, men to the right.
I would ask about the Jewish ones, but not sure they get many people these days.
I am reading the Telegraph article below and I am in disbelief the BSIE campaign wants to respond to this rut by going even more negative and personal. In a campaign based around negativity and cynicism, Leave will win. Remain need to have a positive upbeat message around European co-operation and integration. David Cameron made a big mistake when he spent years saying Europe was terrible, but there's still time to make it up.
The bottom line is "the Establishment" simply DON'T KNOW how to make political arguments without resorting to hysterical scaremongering, or by throwing out "the other guy smells of wee" insults.
It is not just limited to the EU. We saw the same with the Scottish referendum, with both main parties in the 2015 election, and with the Establishment candidates in the Labour leadership contest. These guys simply have never learnt how to win a debate with ordinary people, never learnt how to think of persuasive arguments that can move the needle on big issues: they've never HAD to, since most of them have spent most of their lives in Westminster, before being parachuted into safe seats where little persuasion of their constituents was needed to get elected, before then spending their careers insulated in Westminster surrounded by fellow elites. They have simply never developed the skillset of WINNING ARGUMENTS IN THE REAL WORLD that past politicians had to develop.
It turns out the establishment was absolutely right about the consequences of Scottish indepenence. They also won the last GE and will win on 23rd June, whoever comes out on top.
I am reading the Telegraph article below and I am in disbelief the BSIE campaign wants to respond to this rut by going even more negative and personal. In a campaign based around negativity and cynicism, Leave will win. Remain need to have a positive upbeat message around European co-operation and integration. David Cameron made a big mistake when he spent years saying Europe was terrible, but there's still time to make it up.
The bottom line is "the Establishment" simply DON'T KNOW how to make political arguments without resorting to hysterical scaremongering, or by throwing out "the other guy smells of wee" insults.
It is not just limited to the EU. We saw the same with the Scottish referendum, with both main parties in the 2015 election, and with the Establishment candidates in the Labour leadership contest. These guys simply have never learnt how to win a debate with ordinary people, never learnt how to think of persuasive arguments that can move the needle on big issues: they've never HAD to, since most of them have spent most of their lives in Westminster, before being parachuted into safe seats where little persuasion of their constituents was needed to get elected, before then spending their careers insulated in Westminster surrounded by fellow elites. They have simply never developed the skillset of WINNING ARGUMENTS IN THE REAL WORLD that past politicians had to develop.
Pat Glass is a prime example. Her bigoted racist remarks re wherever this is, spoke volumes.
Tim was right about Cameron and Osborne, wasn't he? At least Brexit will expose them for the second-raters they have always been. There were some on here who only a short while ago were bestowing greatness on them. Blimey.
Yes, he was right. To think I actually voted for them. Only the first time round... but, still.
The poll is great but in a way unsurprising. The momentum has been with Leave for over a week. I used the analogy before of Dave Bedford's 10000m races. He didn't have a fast finish so would need to be a lap ahead at the bell. If Remain were going to win they should have been way out in front.
Despite my instinctive aversion to all things EU, I actually prefer the current passports to the old blue (or black?) ones. They fit much more nicely in the pocket.
Despite my instinctive aversion to all things EU, I actually prefer the current passports to the old blue (or black?) ones. They fit much more nicely in the pocket.
Yeah... But I'll live with the inconvenience as long as it goes back to a proper passport!
Despite my instinctive aversion to all things EU, I actually prefer the current passports to the old blue (or black?) ones. They fit much more nicely in the pocket.
In sure we'll keep the size, it seems to be standardised across the globe now.
The question facing us now is one of survival. The pound is already down 10%, disastrous for a country that imports far more than it exports. At least two million will go into negative equity and unemployment will rapidly rise. We need to think how we will cope with a twenty year recession and permanent real economic decline. We face some very tough choices.
Really?
The pound closed this evening at 1.267against the Euro - which is higher than it was for the whole of the period 2009 - 2014 bar a couple of days when it crept up to 1.28
So please, tell me just how disastrous this was for the country.
Also we can't import more than we export forever. The pound falling might be part of the solution.
The poll is great but in a way unsurprising. The momentum has been with Leave for over a week. I used the analogy before of Dave Bedford's 10000m races. He didn't have a fast finish so would need to be a lap ahead at the bell. If Remain were going to win they should have been way out in front.
Now we have to hope there are no slip ups.
Surely it's the other way around, if past referendums are anything to go by? The side challenging the status quo must have a very healthy lead as people tend to lose courage in the final days/booth.
I think Leave need to be polling consistently and significantly in front to actually finish with a lead when the votes are in. Can't see it myself. It was a gargantuan task Leave had, and they've done admirably, but it won't be enough.
I am reading the Telegraph article below and I am in disbelief the BSIE campaign wants to respond to this rut by going even more negative and personal.
Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. Cameron is going thru the process.
I still think the polls will move back into Remain's favour as voting day nears and voters coalesce around a better-the-devil-we-know flagpole.
But in the meantime watching the UK establishment and those sickening sneering Eurocrats like Schauble and Juncker shit themselves is great fun.
I'm prouder to be a member of the British working classes than I have been in ages. The establishment have hit us with propaganda, persuasion, coercion and threats of plague, pestilence and destitution. But have we buckled? No..
They counted on the feebleness of our provincial minds to crumble under the pressure of their superior intellect and for us to kneel subserviently at the altar of their almighty presence. And have we crumbed? Have we bent to one, coal-dusted proletarian knee? Like shit, we have.
We've stuck together with a giant FUCK YOU tattooed on our sweaty, work-weary brows and now find ourselves 10 points ahead in the polls. It's brilliant. Herman Van Fucking Rompuy must be wondering why us Brits haven't taken to his obvious, inspirational charms.
Where did it all go wrong eh?
It might not last and very probably won't.... but hey, in the meantime at 10 points in front - LOL.
Tim was right about Cameron and Osborne, wasn't he? At least Brexit will expose them for the second-raters they have always been. There were some on here who only a short while ago were bestowing greatness on them. Blimey.
I was mightily relieved to have been saved from P.M. Miliband. However, a combination of a lacklustre legislative program, a downright bad budget and Cameron's pathetic EU dissembling have made me long for the coalition. Or even a sensible (Gisela ) Labour administration. </p>
I think we may look back on the 2010-2015 coalition as the golden time of British politics?
The question facing us now is one of survival. The pound is already down 10%, disastrous for a country that imports far more than it exports. At least two million will go into negative equity and unemployment will rapidly rise. We need to think how we will cope with a twenty year recession and permanent real economic decline. We face some very tough choices.
Really?
The pound closed this evening at 1.267against the Euro - which is higher than it was for the whole of the period 2009 - 2014 bar a couple of days when it crept up to 1.28
So please, tell me just how disastrous this was for the country.
Problem is, I remember when £1=$2, and when £1=€1.5. Neither of those things were that long ago.
The poll is great but in a way unsurprising. The momentum has been with Leave for over a week. I used the analogy before of Dave Bedford's 10000m races. He didn't have a fast finish so would need to be a lap ahead at the bell. If Remain were going to win they should have been way out in front.
Now we have to hope there are no slip ups.
Surely it's the other way around, if past referendums are anything to go by? The side challenging the status quo must have a very healthy lead as people tend to lose courage in the final days/booth.
I think Leave need to be polling consistently and significantly in front to actually finish with a lead when the votes are in. Can't see it myself. It was a gargantuan task Leave had, and they've done admirably, but it won't be enough.
No I think this is a complete myth. It didn't happen in Scotland and it won't happen here. I know this goes against the pb leaders' wisdom, and Peter Kellner, but the press are so pro Brexit that it will more than counter any of that effect. And yes they do still have an influence. A massive one.
(3000sqft is 60ft by 50ft. That's a 2-bed flat. A single room in the South East - not London, just the South East - will go for about £350-450pcm. Am I missing something here? Is my maths wrong?)
it's roughly three times the size of a crap semi-detached or flat. it's in a depopulated area of scotland full of crumbling massive victorian villas and nuclear warheads.
The housing market in England is...somewhat different.
And in most of Scotland tbf. This is why I'm not looking forward to getting a job and finding I have to move to a flat 25% of the size. If only Betfair hadn't introduced that damn premium charge....
Got the same advice for the Remain campaign team I had for the Better Together team at this late stage of the EU debate when it comes to the polls and increasingly hysterical onslaught from your opponents. Keep calm and carry on, and what ever you do, don't panic.
haven't had any hot water for two weeks though. can't get decent workmen out here. no poles pushing up the rent!
What water heating system do you have?
Oil (was expensive for a while there)...it's a combi boiler....landlord has a service contract (Worcester Bosch so occasionally I get to speak to someone with a an accent which takes me back to my youth) but it's the usual nonsense with that not applying to the line and it taking a week for a bloke to show up to clear the line only to discover that he can't get the boiler working again....you meet some absolutely comical workmen in these parts. I'm just glad that as a renter I don't have to pay these clowns (directly).
The question facing us now is one of survival. The pound is already down 10%, disastrous for a country that imports far more than it exports. At least two million will go into negative equity and unemployment will rapidly rise. We need to think how we will cope with a twenty year recession and permanent real economic decline. We face some very tough choices.
Really?
The pound closed this evening at 1.267against the Euro - which is higher than it was for the whole of the period 2009 - 2014 bar a couple of days when it crept up to 1.28
So please, tell me just how disastrous this was for the country.
Problem is, I remember when £1=$2, and when £1=€1.5. Neither of those things were that long ago.
Surely while we're EU members the super soaraway pound can only have been going up?
The poll is great but in a way unsurprising. The momentum has been with Leave for over a week. I used the analogy before of Dave Bedford's 10000m races. He didn't have a fast finish so would need to be a lap ahead at the bell. If Remain were going to win they should have been way out in front.
Now we have to hope there are no slip ups.
Surely it's the other way around, if past referendums are anything to go by? The side challenging the status quo must have a very healthy lead as people tend to lose courage in the final days/booth.
I think Leave need to be polling consistently and significantly in front to actually finish with a lead when the votes are in. Can't see it myself. It was a gargantuan task Leave had, and they've done admirably, but it won't be enough.
No I think this is a complete myth. It didn't happen in Scotland and it won't happen here. I know this goes against the pb leaders' wisdom, and Peter Kellner, but the press are so pro Brexit that it will more than counter any of that effect. And yes they do still have an influence. A massive one.
Got the same advice for the Remain campaign team I had for the Better Together team at this late stage of the EU debate when it comes to the polls and increasingly hysterical onslaught from your opponents. Keep calm and carry on, and what ever you do, don't panic.
Someone needs to tell call me Dave. He appears to be panicking.
The poll is great but in a way unsurprising. The momentum has been with Leave for over a week. I used the analogy before of Dave Bedford's 10000m races. He didn't have a fast finish so would need to be a lap ahead at the bell. If Remain were going to win they should have been way out in front.
Now we have to hope there are no slip ups.
Surely it's the other way around, if past referendums are anything to go by? The side challenging the status quo must have a very healthy lead as people tend to lose courage in the final days/booth.
I think Leave need to be polling consistently and significantly in front to actually finish with a lead when the votes are in. Can't see it myself. It was a gargantuan task Leave had, and they've done admirably, but it won't be enough.
No I think this is a complete myth. It didn't happen in Scotland and it won't happen here. I know this goes against the pb leaders' wisdom, and Peter Kellner, but the press are so pro Brexit that it will more than counter any of that effect. And yes they do still have an influence. A massive one.
Don't Knows clearly went for No in Scotland, not massively so but it was there. Most of the tabloids will be for Leave, the broadsheets and effectively the BBC for Remain
(3000sqft is 60ft by 50ft. That's a 2-bed flat. A single room in the South East - not London, just the South East - will go for about £350-450pcm. Am I missing something here? Is my maths wrong?)
it's roughly three times the size of a crap semi-detached or flat. it's in a depopulated area of scotland full of crumbling massive victorian villas and nuclear warheads.
The housing market in England is...somewhat different.
And in most of Scotland tbf. This is why I'm not looking forward to getting a job and finding I have to move to a flat 25% of the size. If only Betfair hadn't introduced that damn premium charge....
The poll is great but in a way unsurprising. The momentum has been with Leave for over a week. I used the analogy before of Dave Bedford's 10000m races. He didn't have a fast finish so would need to be a lap ahead at the bell. If Remain were going to win they should have been way out in front.
Now we have to hope there are no slip ups.
Surely it's the other way around, if past referendums are anything to go by? The side challenging the status quo must have a very healthy lead as people tend to lose courage in the final days/booth.
I think Leave need to be polling consistently and significantly in front to actually finish with a lead when the votes are in. Can't see it myself. It was a gargantuan task Leave had, and they've done admirably, but it won't be enough.
No I think this is a complete myth. It didn't happen in Scotland and it won't happen here. I know this goes against the pb leaders' wisdom, and Peter Kellner, but the press are so pro Brexit that it will more than counter any of that effect. And yes they do still have an influence. A massive one.
Don't Knows clearly went for No in Scotland, not massively so but it was there. Most of the tabloids will be for Leave, the broadsheets and effectively the BBC for Remain
It's the headlines that will swing it even further to Leave. There's another awful batch for Remain tomorrow. It's incessant.
The Telegraph obviously won't be pro Remain and I wouldn't have thought the Times would be particularly so either. So which broadsheet do you mean? The Guardian and, er, FT I guess.
Got the same advice for the Remain campaign team I had for the Better Together team at this late stage of the EU debate when it comes to the polls and increasingly hysterical onslaught from your opponents. Keep calm and carry on, and what ever you do, don't panic.
Someone needs to tell call me Dave. He appears to be panicking.
The problem is not that Dave is panicking. The problem is that he isn't panicking enough
(3000sqft is 60ft by 50ft. That's a 2-bed flat. A single room in the South East - not London, just the South East - will go for about £350-450pcm. Am I missing something here? Is my maths wrong?)
it's roughly three times the size of a crap semi-detached or flat. it's in a depopulated area of scotland full of crumbling massive victorian villas and nuclear warheads.
The housing market in England is...somewhat different.
And in most of Scotland tbf. This is why I'm not looking forward to getting a job and finding I have to move to a flat 25% of the size. If only Betfair hadn't introduced that damn premium charge....
If you're happy where you are, don't change
If it weren't for tax credits changing to universal credit implying one has to find work (at the moment i qualify for plenty of child tax credit without needing to do so) I wouldn't. But unless I can find work in Glasgow (or nearer) i'll have to move eventually. Frankly I'd rather move than work in a betting shop as well....
The poll is great but in a way unsurprising. The momentum has been with Leave for over a week. I used the analogy before of Dave Bedford's 10000m races. He didn't have a fast finish so would need to be a lap ahead at the bell. If Remain were going to win they should have been way out in front.
Now we have to hope there are no slip ups.
Surely it's the other way around, if past referendums are anything to go by? The side challenging the status quo must have a very healthy lead as people tend to lose courage in the final days/booth.
I think Leave need to be polling consistently and significantly in front to actually finish with a lead when the votes are in. Can't see it myself. It was a gargantuan task Leave had, and they've done admirably, but it won't be enough.
No I think this is a complete myth. It didn't happen in Scotland and it won't happen here. I know this goes against the pb leaders' wisdom, and Peter Kellner, but the press are so pro Brexit that it will more than counter any of that effect. And yes they do still have an influence. A massive one.
Got the same advice for the Remain campaign team I had for the Better Together team at this late stage of the EU debate when it comes to the polls and increasingly hysterical onslaught from your opponents. Keep calm and carry on, and what ever you do, don't panic.
Someone needs to tell call me Dave. He appears to be panicking.
The problem is not that Dave is panicking. The problem is that he isn't panicking enough
Got the same advice for the Remain campaign team I had for the Better Together team at this late stage of the EU debate when it comes to the polls and increasingly hysterical onslaught from your opponents. Keep calm and carry on, and what ever you do, don't panic.
Someone needs to tell call me Dave. He appears to be panicking.
The problem is not that Dave is panicking. The problem is that he isn't panicking enough
Rubbish.
In two weeks time Dave might well have resigned as Prime Minister! Just two weeks!
haven't had any hot water for two weeks though. can't get decent workmen out here. no poles pushing up the rent!
What water heating system do you have?
Oil (was expensive for a while there)...it's a combi boiler....landlord has a service contract (Worcester Bosch so occasionally I get to speak to someone with a an accent which takes me back to my youth) but it's the usual nonsense with that not applying to the line and it taking a week for a bloke to show up to clear the line only to discover that he can't get the boiler working again....you meet some absolutely comical workmen in these parts. I'm just glad that as a renter I don't have to pay these clowns (directly).
People like combi boilers and gas, but they bug the hell out of me: so many moving parts, so much piping, it's like something out of "Brazil", they always go wrong. I prefer electrical boilers with Economy 7 (yes, you can still get it) and electrical power showers. They don't work out well if you have kids but if you're single/partnered and can schedule your water usage they are cheaper.
I genuinely think it's finished for Remain barring any cock up by Leave. Remain have shot their bolt. They took people for idiots, which is what you would expect from Cameron and his entourage. He will probably change tone at the last minute and try to plead with people but by then it will be too late.
There is, quite simply, too strong a sentiment that it's time to take back control. It crosses the political, economic and social divides.
There won't be a "normal" last-minute swing to Remain, because it isn't as clear as it usually is in referendums which side upholds the status quo. Immigration is viewed as change - a movement that has happened and is still happening and that people believe they have only got a serious chance of stopping if they vote Leave. Leave is saying "Stop". Remain is saying "Forward", or more accurately they are saying "Don't stop". A lot of the talk about telephone polls as against online polls, and about the status quo's built-in advantage, sounds like wishful thinking.
Remain have only one option: paint a picture of Armageddon and make it realistic. Never mind the IMF. People may not be able to verbalise the fact that the IMF is a bank, but they still understand it well enough when Christine Lagarde talks about Britgov's current account deficit. As for Obama, "back of the queue"? Right, sure, let's hear from all the foreigners what they want. What an idiotic idea by Remain! What they need to do is call in the Governor of the Bank of England. Let people argue afterwards about whether purdah-defying political pressure was put on him. Tell him to say look, everyone, you can vote Leave if you want, but don't blame me if you won't be able to get any money out of your bank account on Friday afternoon and for I don't know how long afterwards, if indeed you ever can. Unfortunately for Remain his act makes it impossible for him to talk in a demotic way, but maybe he can get the message across somehow.
For Remain to win, there must be a sense of EMERGENCY. Nee-na, nee-na! "You naughty voters are going to HURT yourselves if you vote Leave. The pound has already fallen 7%, thousands are stuck at airports, Wimbledon has been called off, there's no petrol coming out of the pumps, and the queen is CRYING. You're very irresponsible children! Your doors have already fallen off, and how would you like your whole house to fall down?"
Meanwhile, 17 June is triple witching day on the derivatives markets
Surely it's the other way around, if past referendums are anything to go by? The side challenging the status quo must have a very healthy lead as people tend to lose courage in the final days/booth.
Has anyone published an analysis of factors that correlate with the extent of this effect?
That would be "scientific", if people want to test the theory that it's a universal or normal effect: look for when it's been weak or non-existent or things have gone in the other direction and ask why.
There is also the question of which side represents the status quo.
Got the same advice for the Remain campaign team I had for the Better Together team at this late stage of the EU debate when it comes to the polls and increasingly hysterical onslaught from your opponents. Keep calm and carry on, and what ever you do, don't panic.
Someone needs to tell call me Dave. He appears to be panicking.
The problem is not that Dave is panicking. The problem is that he isn't panicking enough
Rubbish.
You sure? He is losing. If he carries on as planned, he will lose his vote, his reputation, and soon after his job. Panicking is a rational response
There won't be a "normal" last-minute swing to Remain, because it isn't as clear as it usually is in referendums which side upholds the status quo. Immigration is viewed as change - a movement that has happened and is still happening and that people believe they have only got a serious chance of stopping if they vote Leave.
The poll is great but in a way unsurprising. The momentum has been with Leave for over a week. I used the analogy before of Dave Bedford's 10000m races. He didn't have a fast finish so would need to be a lap ahead at the bell. If Remain were going to win they should have been way out in front.
Now we have to hope there are no slip ups.
Surely it's the other way around, if past referendums are anything to go by? The side challenging the status quo must have a very healthy lead as people tend to lose courage in the final days/booth.
I think Leave need to be polling consistently and significantly in front to actually finish with a lead when the votes are in. Can't see it myself. It was a gargantuan task Leave had, and they've done admirably, but it won't be enough.
No I think this is a complete myth. It didn't happen in Scotland and it won't happen here. I know this goes against the pb leaders' wisdom, and Peter Kellner, but the press are so pro Brexit that it will more than counter any of that effect. And yes they do still have an influence. A massive one.
(3000sqft is 60ft by 50ft. That's a 2-bed flat. A single room in the South East - not London, just the South East - will go for about £350-450pcm. Am I missing something here? Is my maths wrong?)
it's roughly three times the size of a crap semi-detached or flat. it's in a depopulated area of scotland full of crumbling massive victorian villas and nuclear warheads.
The housing market in England is...somewhat different.
And in most of Scotland tbf. This is why I'm not looking forward to getting a job and finding I have to move to a flat 25% of the size. If only Betfair hadn't introduced that damn premium charge....
If you're happy where you are, don't change
If it weren't for tax credits changing to universal credit implying one has to find work (at the moment i qualify for plenty of child tax credit without needing to do so) I wouldn't. But unless I can find work in Glasgow (or nearer) i'll have to move eventually. Frankly I'd rather move than work in a betting shop as well....
The poll is great but in a way unsurprising. The momentum has been with Leave for over a week. I used the analogy before of Dave Bedford's 10000m races. He didn't have a fast finish so would need to be a lap ahead at the bell. If Remain were going to win they should have been way out in front.
Now we have to hope there are no slip ups.
Surely it's the other way around, if past referendums are anything to go by? The side challenging the status quo must have a very healthy lead as people tend to lose courage in the final days/booth.
I think Leave need to be polling consistently and significantly in front to actually finish with a lead when the votes are in. Can't see it myself. It was a gargantuan task Leave had, and they've done admirably, but it won't be enough.
No I think this is a complete myth. It didn't happen in Scotland and it won't happen here. I know this goes against the pb leaders' wisdom, and Peter Kellner, but the press are so pro Brexit that it will more than counter any of that effect. And yes they do still have an influence. A massive one.
There wasn't a single double digit No lead from the second debate onwards yet No won by over 10%
That just means the polls understated the lead, not whether there was or wasn't swing back to the status quo. There were only 2 polls with yes in the lead and they could have been rogues.
The poll is great but in a way unsurprising. The momentum has been with Leave for over a week. I used the analogy before of Dave Bedford's 10000m races. He didn't have a fast finish so would need to be a lap ahead at the bell. If Remain were going to win they should have been way out in front.
Now we have to hope there are no slip ups.
Surely it's the other way around, if past referendums are anything to go by? The side challenging the status quo must have a very healthy lead as people tend to lose courage in the final days/booth.
I think Leave need to be polling consistently and significantly in front to actually finish with a lead when the votes are in. Can't see it myself. It was a gargantuan task Leave had, and they've done admirably, but it won't be enough.
No I think this is a complete myth. It didn't happen in Scotland and it won't happen here. I know this goes against the pb leaders' wisdom, and Peter Kellner, but the press are so pro Brexit that it will more than counter any of that effect. And yes they do still have an influence. A massive one.
There wasn't a single double digit No lead from the second debate onwards yet No won by over 10%
Come on, that's sly and you know it. You can't put down your own arbitrary marker in the sand in order to rescue your argument. In August, just a four weeks before the vote, the No campaign was leading by between 13 and 20% in the polls and throughout the summer regularly posted double digit leads. They even at one stage had a whopping 30% lead https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014
It's a Brexiter's wet dream on here tonight. John Mann - superb. And now this from Dyson.
-------------
He produces another staggering fact. “Sixty per cent of engineering undergraduates at British universities are from outside the EU, and 90 per cent of people doing research in science and engineering at British universities are from outside the EU. And we chuck them out!” He gives a trodden-puppy yelp.
Softly spoken, Dyson’s Home Service Received Pronunciation tones become incensed when he talks about what he sees as our disloyalty to Commonwealth countries. “They fought for us in two world wars. So that particularly upsets me. We’re missing out on all those people who have helped us and with whom we have a great affinity, often a common language.
I genuinely think it's finished for Remain barring any cock up by Leave. Remain have shot their bolt. They took people for idiots, which is what you would expect from Cameron and his entourage. He will probably change tone at the last minute and try to plead with people but by then it will be too late.
There is, quite simply, too strong a sentiment that it's time to take back control. It crosses the political, economic and social divides.
Beware the echo chamber- a lot of NATS were convinced they were going to win SINDYREF because they spent their time talking to fellow believers.....
I genuinely think it's finished for Remain barring any cock up by Leave. Remain have shot their bolt. They took people for idiots, which is what you would expect from Cameron and his entourage. He will probably change tone at the last minute and try to plead with people but by then it will be too late.
There is, quite simply, too strong a sentiment that it's time to take back control. It crosses the political, economic and social divides.
Beware the echo chamber- a lot of NATS were convinced they were going to win SINDYREF because they spent their time talking to fellow believers.....
Ditto PB Tories and 2015. The key difference is PB Tories are never wrong, etc....
It's a Brexiter's wet dream on here tonight. John Mann - superb. And now this from Dyson.
-------------
He produces another staggering fact. “Sixty per cent of engineering undergraduates at British universities are from outside the EU, and 90 per cent of people doing research in science and engineering at British universities are from outside the EU. And we chuck them out!” He gives a trodden-puppy yelp.
Softly spoken, Dyson’s Home Service Received Pronunciation tones become incensed when he talks about what he sees as our disloyalty to Commonwealth countries. “They fought for us in two world wars. So that particularly upsets me. We’re missing out on all those people who have helped us and with whom we have a great affinity, often a common language.
The thing that bothers me most is our inability to educate our own engineers. We clearly have the work for them to do.
Got the same advice for the Remain campaign team I had for the Better Together team at this late stage of the EU debate when it comes to the polls and increasingly hysterical onslaught from your opponents. Keep calm and carry on, and what ever you do, don't panic.
Someone needs to tell call me Dave. He appears to be panicking.
The problem is not that Dave is panicking. The problem is that he isn't panicking enough
Rubbish.
You sure? He is losing. If he carries on as planned, he will lose his vote, his reputation, and soon after his job. Panicking is a rational response
I am simple saying it would be the wrong response from Cameron and the Remain team in the last days of the EU Ref campaign. Keep calm and carry on, and what ever you do, don't panic when you are arguing for economic stability and security within the EU. If anything, it would be far more useful to Cameron and Remain it there were signs of panic beginning to emerge from the EU at the possibility of the UK voting leave.
At the end of the day, it is still the Vote Leave campaign that has to convince the voters to take that leap into the unknown at a time when we have had years of austerity on the back of the last recession. And at a time when we have growing threat of terrorism across Europe while Putin sits watching from the sidelines.
The poll is great but in a way unsurprising. The momentum has been with Leave for over a week. I used the analogy before of Dave Bedford's 10000m races. He didn't have a fast finish so would need to be a lap ahead at the bell. If Remain were going to win they should have been way out in front.
Now we have to hope there are no slip ups.
Surely it's the other way around, if past referendums are anything to go by? The side challenging the status quo must have a very healthy lead as people tend to lose courage in the final days/booth.
I think Leave need to be polling consistently and significantly in front to actually finish with a lead when the votes are in. Can't see it myself. It was a gargantuan task Leave had, and they've done admirably, but it won't be enough.
No I think this is a complete myth. It didn't happen in Scotland and it won't happen here. I know this goes against the pb leaders' wisdom, and Peter Kellner, but the press are so pro Brexit that it will more than counter any of that effect. And yes they do still have an influence. A massive one.
Don't Knows clearly went for No in Scotland, not massively so but it was there. Most of the tabloids will be for Leave, the broadsheets and effectively the BBC for Remain
It's the headlines that will swing it even further to Leave. There's another awful batch for Remain tomorrow. It's incessant.
The Telegraph obviously won't be pro Remain and I wouldn't have thought the Times would be particularly so either. So which broadsheet do you mean? The Guardian and, er, FT I guess.
"Eagle, as I may have already mentioned, was the pits. If the EU debate really matters as much as she claimed, she shouldn’t have wasted our time with a political broadcast for the Labour Party. Her priority, one suspects, is to supplant Jeremy Corbyn as leader of Labour. Never has a display of naked ambition been so tawdry, shameless and counter-productive.
Biggest news of the night: Dennis Skinner has come out for Brexit. Evidently, he doesn’t think it’ll lead to World War III or child labour. Someone tell Angela. If they can get a word in."
It's a Brexiter's wet dream on here tonight. John Mann - superb. And now this from Dyson.
-------------
He produces another staggering fact. “Sixty per cent of engineering undergraduates at British universities are from outside the EU, and 90 per cent of people doing research in science and engineering at British universities are from outside the EU. And we chuck them out!” He gives a trodden-puppy yelp.
Softly spoken, Dyson’s Home Service Received Pronunciation tones become incensed when he talks about what he sees as our disloyalty to Commonwealth countries. “They fought for us in two world wars. So that particularly upsets me. We’re missing out on all those people who have helped us and with whom we have a great affinity, often a common language.
The thing that bothers me most is our inability to educate our own engineers. We clearly have the work for them to do.
The UK state school system educates its kids to become office fodder, I'm afraid. Simple as that. May as well just teach them Excel and photocopying and send 'em out into the workplace, and be done with it.
I genuinely think it's finished for Remain barring any cock up by Leave. Remain have shot their bolt. They took people for idiots, which is what you would expect from Cameron and his entourage. He will probably change tone at the last minute and try to plead with people but by then it will be too late.
There is, quite simply, too strong a sentiment that it's time to take back control. It crosses the political, economic and social divides.
Final polls in Quebec in 1995 had Yes ahead but the don't knows went for No and No won by a very narrow 51% to 49% margin
The poll is great but in a way unsurprising. The momentum has been with Leave for over a week. I used the analogy before of Dave Bedford's 10000m races. He didn't have a fast finish so would need to be a lap ahead at the bell. If Remain were going to win they should have been way out in front.
Now we have to hope there are no slip ups.
Surely it's the other way around, if past referendums are anything to go by? The side challenging the status quo must have a very healthy lead as people tend to lose courage in the final days/booth.
I think Leave need to be polling consistently and significantly in front to actually finish with a lead when the votes are in. Can't see it myself. It was a gargantuan task Leave had, and they've done admirably, but it won't be enough.
No I think this is a complete myth. It didn't happen in Scotland and it won't happen here. I know this goes against the pb leaders' wisdom, and Peter Kellner, but the press are so pro Brexit that it will more than counter any of that effect. And yes they do still have an influence. A massive one.
Don't Knows clearly went for No in Scotland, not massively so but it was there. Most of the tabloids will be for Leave, the broadsheets and effectively the BBC for Remain
It's the headlines that will swing it even further to Leave. There's another awful batch for Remain tomorrow. It's incessant.
The Telegraph obviously won't be pro Remain and I wouldn't have thought the Times would be particularly so either. So which broadsheet do you mean? The Guardian and, er, FT I guess.
You may be right about the Times but I suspect if you are it will be lukewarm and ambivalent (remember I was talking about headlines). And there's always the chance that he who pays the piper will call the tune ...
Agree with lots about where Remain is going wrong tonight - just smearing is putting off everyone. I only caught the end of last night's debate, but Angela Eagle oh my word - what were a Labour thinking putting her up? Totally summed up the crisis within Labour on this.
Questions at lunch about where the Lib Dems are. I think the answer is quietly sticking with remain. My reading is that the leadership have been shocked how little response they've had to their #InTogether campaign about how wonderful the EU is. I've been repelled by the nonsense scaremongering of BSE (and the unwillingness to fight for EU membership as worth it, not just too costly to change.) And I've spent enough time looking into the detail to know that the EU needs improving in many ways, so enthusiastic support just seems naive to me. However the big difference between LD and Labour voters is that there's much less anti-immigrant sentiment in the LDs, so Remain's failure to deal with immigration is nowhere near as big a deal. So while I see many Lib Dems as quieter and less enthusiastic than they were, I'd be surprised if there wasn't a sizeable Remain lead from LDs in the end,
The poll is great but in a way unsurprising. The momentum has been with Leave for over a week. I used the analogy before of Dave Bedford's 10000m races. He didn't have a fast finish so would need to be a lap ahead at the bell. If Remain were going to win they should have been way out in front.
Now we have to hope there are no slip ups.
Surely it's the other way around, if past referendums are anything to go by? The side challenging the status quo must have a very healthy lead as people tend to lose courage in the final days/booth.
I think Leave need to be polling consistently and significantly in front to actually finish with a lead when the votes are in. Can't see it myself. It was a gargantuan task Leave had, and they've done admirably, but it won't be enough.
No I think this is a complete myth. It didn't happen in Scotland and it won't happen here. I know this goes against the pb leaders' wisdom, and Peter Kellner, but the press are so pro Brexit that it will more than counter any of that effect. And yes they do still have an influence. A massive one.
Don't Knows clearly went for No in Scotland, not massively so but it was there. Most of the tabloids will be for Leave, the broadsheets and effectively the BBC for Remain
It's the headlines that will swing it even further to Leave. There's another awful batch for Remain tomorrow. It's incessant.
The Telegraph obviously won't be pro Remain and I wouldn't have thought the Times would be particularly so either. So which broadsheet do you mean? The Guardian and, er, FT I guess.
You may be right about the Times but I suspect if you are it will be lukewarm and ambivalent (remember I was talking about headlines). And there's always the chance that he who pays the piper will call the tune ...
Murdoch will likely hedge his bets, the Times for Remain and the Sun for Leave. He did it at the general election with the English Sun backing the Tories and the Scottish Sun the SNP
Got the same advice for the Remain campaign team I had for the Better Together team at this late stage of the EU debate when it comes to the polls and increasingly hysterical onslaught from your opponents. Keep calm and carry on, and what ever you do, don't panic.
Someone needs to tell call me Dave. He appears to be panicking.
The problem is not that Dave is panicking. The problem is that he isn't panicking enough
Rubbish.
You sure? He is losing. If he carries on as planned, he will lose his vote, his reputation, and soon after his job. Panicking is a rational response
I am simple saying it would be the wrong response from Cameron and the Remain team in the last days of the EU Ref campaign. Keep calm and carry on, and what ever you do, don't panic when you are arguing for economic stability and security within the EU. If anything, it would be far more useful to Cameron and Remain it there were signs of panic beginning to emerge from the EU at the possibility of the UK voting leave.
At the end of the day, it is still the Vote Leave campaign that has to convince the voters to take that leap into the unknown at a time when we have had years of austerity on the back of the last recession. And at a time when we have growing threat of terrorism across Europe while Putin sits watching from the sidelines.
Remember "wobbly Thursday"? Thatcher held her nerve and won.....
The poll is great but in a way unsurprising. The momentum has been with Leave for over a week. I used the analogy before of Dave Bedford's 10000m races. He didn't have a fast finish so would need to be a lap ahead at the bell. If Remain were going to win they should have been way out in front.
Now we have to hope there are no slip ups.
Surely it's the other way around, if past referendums are anything to go by? The side challenging the status quo must have a very healthy lead as people tend to lose courage in the final days/booth.
I think Leave need to be polling consistently and significantly in front to actually finish with a lead when the votes are in. Can't see it myself. It was a gargantuan task Leave had, and they've done admirably, but it won't be enough.
No I think this is a complete myth. It didn't happen in Scotland and it won't happen here. I know this goes against the pb leaders' wisdom, and Peter Kellner, but the press are so pro Brexit that it will more than counter any of that effect. And yes they do still have an influence. A massive one.
Don't Knows clearly went for No in Scotland, not massively so but it was there. Most of the tabloids will be for Leave, the broadsheets and effectively the BBC for Remain
It's the headlines that will swing it even further to Leave. There's another awful batch for Remain tomorrow. It's incessant.
The Telegraph obviously won't be pro Remain and I wouldn't have thought the Times would be particularly so either. So which broadsheet do you mean? The Guardian and, er, FT I guess.
You may be right about the Times but I suspect if you are it will be lukewarm and ambivalent (remember I was talking about headlines). And there's always the chance that he who pays the piper will call the tune ...
Murdoch will likely hedge his bets, the Times for Remain and the Sun for Leave. He did it at the general election with the English Sun backing the Tories and the Scottish Sun the SNP
Very different circs though? He is strongly anti EU pro-Brexit and he always backs the winning horse. The GE was a different kettle of fish and a very interesting, and astute, call: tapping into the working class nationalist vote.
The poll is great but in a way unsurprising. The momentum has been with Leave for over a week. I used the analogy before of Dave Bedford's 10000m races. He didn't have a fast finish so would need to be a lap ahead at the bell. If Remain were going to win they should have been way out in front.
Now we have to hope there are no slip ups.
Surely it's the other way around, if past referendums are anything to go by? The side challenging the status quo must have a very healthy lead as people tend to lose courage in the final days/booth.
I think Leave need to be polling consistently and significantly in front to actually finish with a lead when the votes are in. Can't see it myself. It was a gargantuan task Leave had, and they've done admirably, but it won't be enough.
No I think this is a complete myth. It didn't happen in Scotland and it won't happen here. I know this goes against the pb leaders' wisdom, and Peter Kellner, but the press are so pro Brexit that it will more than counter any of that effect. And yes they do still have an influence. A massive one.
Don't Knows clearly went for No in Scotland, not massively so but it was there. Most of the tabloids will be for Leave, the broadsheets and effectively the BBC for Remain
It's the headlines that will swing it even further to Leave. There's another awful batch for Remain tomorrow. It's incessant.
The Telegraph obviously won't be pro Remain and I wouldn't have thought the Times would be particularly so either. So which broadsheet do you mean? The Guardian and, er, FT I guess.
You may be right about the Times but I suspect if you are it will be lukewarm and ambivalent (remember I was talking about headlines). And there's always the chance that he who pays the piper will call the tune ...
Murdoch will likely hedge his bets, the Times for Remain and the Sun for Leave. He did it at the general election with the English Sun backing the Tories and the Scottish Sun the SNP
Very different circs though? He is strongly anti EU pro-Brexit and he always backs the winning horse. The GE was a different kettle of fish and a very interesting, and astute, call: tapping into the working class nationalist vote.
We will see. You may be right.
Nothing about what I said stops him backing the winning horse, Murdoch is above all a businessman and he will not alienate 2/3 of Times readers to back Brexit when he is already backing Brexit through the Sun. Market share is all for him
I genuinely think it's finished for Remain barring any cock up by Leave. Remain have shot their bolt. They took people for idiots, which is what you would expect from Cameron and his entourage. He will probably change tone at the last minute and try to plead with people but by then it will be too late.
There is, quite simply, too strong a sentiment that it's time to take back control. It crosses the political, economic and social divides.
Beware the echo chamber- a lot of NATS were convinced they were going to win SINDYREF because they spent their time talking to fellow believers.....
Carlotta, you hit the nail on the head with that point. I find it incredible that anyone can claim its finished for Remain barring any cock up by Leave with two weeks of the campaign to go. There is at least two things that could happen, and totally out with the control of the Vote Leave campaign. If the polls continue to look favourable for Out, there is a good chance that that this could push up turnout for Remain voters at the ballot box on the day. And as I said in an earlier post, some signs of panic from EU leaders and the possibility of further concessions for the UK would certainly be welcomed by the Remain team.
I was very struck by the plea from an audience member on BBC QuestionTime who tried to remind us of all about one of the most positive aspects of the EU project, peace and stability in Europe.
I genuinely think it's finished for Remain barring any cock up by Leave. Remain have shot their bolt. They took people for idiots, which is what you would expect from Cameron and his entourage. He will probably change tone at the last minute and try to plead with people but by then it will be too late.
There is, quite simply, too strong a sentiment that it's time to take back control. It crosses the political, economic and social divides.
Beware the echo chamber- a lot of NATS were convinced they were going to win SINDYREF because they spent their time talking to fellow believers.....
I find it incredible that anyone can claim its finished for Remain barring any cock up by Leave with two weeks of the campaign to go. There is at least two things that could happen, and totally out with the control of the Vote Leave campaign. If the polls continue to look favourable for Out, there is a good chance that that this could push up turnout for Remain voters at the ballot box on the day. And as I said in an earlier post, some signs of panic from EU leaders and the possibility of further concessions for the UK would certainly be welcomed by the Remain team.
I was very struck by the plea from an audience member on BBC QuestionTime who tried to remind us of all about one of the most positive aspects of the EU project, peace and stability in Europe.
Nothing wrong with a little bit of complacency from LEAVErs.....
Agree with lots about where Remain is going wrong tonight - just smearing is putting off everyone. I only caught the end of last night's debate, but Angela Eagle oh my word - what were a Labour thinking putting her up? Totally summed up the crisis within Labour on this.
Questions at lunch about where the Lib Dems are. I think the answer is quietly sticking with remain. My reading is that the leadership have been shocked how little response they've had to their #InTogether campaign about how wonderful the EU is. I've been repelled by the nonsense scaremongering of BSE (and the unwillingness to fight for EU membership as worth it, not just too costly to change.) And I've spent enough time looking into the detail to know that the EU needs improving in many ways, so enthusiastic support just seems naive to me. However the big difference between LD and Labour voters is that there's much less anti-immigrant sentiment in the LDs, so Remain's failure to deal with immigration is nowhere near as big a deal. So while I see many Lib Dems as quieter and less enthusiastic than they were, I'd be surprised if there wasn't a sizeable Remain lead from LDs in the end,
Despite being a staunch Eurosceptic most of my adult life, there is no doubt that the almost wall to wall two year Indy Ref campaign up here helped form and strengthen my decision to vote remain should there be a subsequent EU Ref if the Tories won the GE. And what is interesting is that I am not seeing a very strong widespread Tory led Vote Leave campaign here in Scotland. If anything, the Brexiters I know are very evenly spread across Scottish Conservative, SLabour and the SNP.
The poll is great but in a way unsurprising. The momentum has been with Leave for over a week. I used the analogy before of Dave Bedford's 10000m races. He didn't have a fast finish so would need to be a lap ahead at the bell. If Remain were going to win they should have been way out in front.
Now we have to hope there are no slip ups.
Surely it's the other way around, if past referendums are anything to go by? The side challenging the status quo must have a very healthy lead as people tend to lose courage in the final days/booth.
I think Leave need to be polling consistently and significantly in front to actually finish with a lead when the votes are in. Can't see it myself. It was a gargantuan task Leave had, and they've done admirably, but it won't be enough.
No I think this is a complete myth. It didn't happen in Scotland and it won't happen here. I know this goes against the pb leaders' wisdom, and Peter Kellner, but the press are so pro Brexit that it will more than counter any of that effect. And yes they do still have an influence. A massive one.
The question facing us now is one of survival. The pound is already down 10%, disastrous for a country that imports far more than it exports. At least two million will go into negative equity and unemployment will rapidly rise. We need to think how we will cope with a twenty year recession and permanent real economic decline. We face some very tough choices.
Really?
The pound closed this evening at 1.267against the Euro - which is higher than it was for the whole of the period 2009 - 2014 bar a couple of days when it crept up to 1.28
So please, tell me just how disastrous this was for the country.
Problem is, I remember when £1=$2, and when £1=€1.5. Neither of those things were that long ago.
The question facing us now is one of survival. The pound is already down 10%, disastrous for a country that imports far more than it exports. At least two million will go into negative equity and unemployment will rapidly rise. We need to think how we will cope with a twenty year recession and permanent real economic decline. We face some very tough choices.
Really?
The pound closed this evening at 1.267against the Euro - which is higher than it was for the whole of the period 2009 - 2014 bar a couple of days when it crept up to 1.28
So please, tell me just how disastrous this was for the country.
Problem is, I remember when £1=$2, and when £1=€1.5. Neither of those things were that long ago.
And I remember when £1 = €1.05 and £= $1.05 (with talk of parity)
Guido has tweeted tbat Cameron is going to stand up on his hind legs side by side with Irish PM Enda Kenny and ask Irish voters in the UK to vote remain.
Comments
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/sir-james-dyson-so-if-we-leave-the-eu-no-one-will-trade-with-us/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Looking busy is much overrated.
It is not just limited to the EU. We saw the same with the Scottish referendum, with both main parties in the 2015 election, and with the Establishment candidates in the Labour leadership contest. These guys simply have never learnt how to win a debate with ordinary people, never learnt how to think of persuasive arguments that can move the needle on big issues: they've never HAD to, since most of them have spent most of their lives in Westminster, before being parachuted into safe seats where little persuasion of their constituents was needed to get elected, before then spending their careers insulated in Westminster surrounded by fellow elites. They have simply never developed the skillset of WINNING ARGUMENTS IN THE REAL WORLD that past politicians had to develop.
There are many MPs who've had to work their way up, and fight but not the leaders these days.
That and the cut'n paste/retweet brigade.
If I'm feeling like this, consider how keen to see him lose some Labour voter from Worksop who's always despised him and his posh mates must feel. No wonder John Mann's seeing some local hostility to Remain.
On another note, if Labour was more John Mann and Gisela Stuart and less Ed Miliband and Tony Blair over the past two decades they'd have been my natural home.
Fwiw, I still fully expect Remain to win, by fair means or foul.
Hasn't she met her own voters?
To think I actually voted for them. Only the first time round... but, still.
Now we have to hope there are no slip ups.
I think Leave need to be polling consistently and significantly in front to actually finish with a lead when the votes are in. Can't see it myself. It was a gargantuan task Leave had, and they've done admirably, but it won't be enough.
But in the meantime watching the UK establishment and those sickening sneering Eurocrats like Schauble and Juncker shit themselves is great fun.
I'm prouder to be a member of the British working classes than I have been in ages. The establishment have hit us with propaganda, persuasion, coercion and threats of plague, pestilence and destitution. But have we buckled? No..
They counted on the feebleness of our provincial minds to crumble under the pressure of their superior intellect and for us to kneel subserviently at the altar of their almighty presence. And have we crumbed? Have we bent to one, coal-dusted proletarian knee? Like shit, we have.
We've stuck together with a giant FUCK YOU tattooed on our sweaty, work-weary brows and now find ourselves 10 points ahead in the polls. It's brilliant. Herman Van Fucking Rompuy must be wondering why us Brits haven't taken to his obvious, inspirational charms.
Where did it all go wrong eh?
It might not last and very probably won't.... but hey, in the meantime at 10 points in front - LOL.
The Telegraph obviously won't be pro Remain and I wouldn't have thought the Times would be particularly so either. So which broadsheet do you mean? The Guardian and, er, FT I guess.
Now finished watching and don't have much to add. Was a clear win for LEAVE, REMAIN was a shambles and what a formidable lady Andrea Leadsom is!
No they didn't
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014
Sorry, I'm banging on...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/sir-james-dyson-so-if-we-leave-the-eu-no-one-will-trade-with-us/
There is, quite simply, too strong a sentiment that it's time to take back control. It crosses the political, economic and social divides.
Remain have only one option: paint a picture of Armageddon and make it realistic. Never mind the IMF. People may not be able to verbalise the fact that the IMF is a bank, but they still understand it well enough when Christine Lagarde talks about Britgov's current account deficit. As for Obama, "back of the queue"? Right, sure, let's hear from all the foreigners what they want. What an idiotic idea by Remain! What they need to do is call in the Governor of the Bank of England. Let people argue afterwards about whether purdah-defying political pressure was put on him. Tell him to say look, everyone, you can vote Leave if you want, but don't blame me if you won't be able to get any money out of your bank account on Friday afternoon and for I don't know how long afterwards, if indeed you ever can. Unfortunately for Remain his act makes it impossible for him to talk in a demotic way, but maybe he can get the message across somehow.
For Remain to win, there must be a sense of EMERGENCY. Nee-na, nee-na! "You naughty voters are going to HURT yourselves if you vote Leave. The pound has already fallen 7%, thousands are stuck at airports, Wimbledon has been called off, there's no petrol coming out of the pumps, and the queen is CRYING. You're very irresponsible children! Your doors have already fallen off, and how would you like your whole house to fall down?"
Meanwhile, 17 June is triple witching day on the derivatives markets
That would be "scientific", if people want to test the theory that it's a universal or normal effect: look for when it's been weak or non-existent or things have gone in the other direction and ask why.
There is also the question of which side represents the status quo.
TTIP has been all but ignored by the Remain campaign @WhiteWednesday #VoteLeave #Brexit https://t.co/17YyQYBiNV
In amongst all the theorising he explains very simply why the single market is illusory.
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He produces another staggering fact. “Sixty per cent of engineering undergraduates at British universities are from outside the EU, and 90 per cent of people doing research in science and engineering at British universities are from outside the EU. And we chuck them out!” He gives a trodden-puppy yelp.
Softly spoken, Dyson’s Home Service Received Pronunciation tones become incensed when he talks about what he sees as our disloyalty to Commonwealth countries. “They fought for us in two world wars. So that particularly upsets me. We’re missing out on all those people who have helped us and with whom we have a great affinity, often a common language.
https://twitter.com/bankersreform/status/741422269533192192
'Eagle, I suspect, doesn't know how to spell sovereignty. She probably thinks it's a bit like Bitcoin or something.'
Ouch
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/09/leave-won-the-itv-debate-and-boris-johnson-looks-like-a-future-p/
At the end of the day, it is still the Vote Leave campaign that has to convince the voters to take that leap into the unknown at a time when we have had years of austerity on the back of the last recession. And at a time when we have growing threat of terrorism across Europe while Putin sits watching from the sidelines.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/24/eu-referendum-provincial-england-versus-london-and/
Biggest news of the night: Dennis Skinner has come out for Brexit. Evidently, he doesn’t think it’ll lead to World War III or child labour. Someone tell Angela. If they can get a word in."
Saturday's Daily Mail front page:
Arise Sir Remain!
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers https://t.co/mnbMBJphjH
“There is a successful union called United Kingdom and there is an unsuccessful union called the EU.”
https://t.co/I3kOYvF3Bb
Questions at lunch about where the Lib Dems are. I think the answer is quietly sticking with remain. My reading is that the leadership have been shocked how little response they've had to their #InTogether campaign about how wonderful the EU is. I've been repelled by the nonsense scaremongering of BSE (and the unwillingness to fight for EU membership as worth it, not just too costly to change.) And I've spent enough time looking into the detail to know that the EU needs improving in many ways, so enthusiastic support just seems naive to me. However the big difference between LD and Labour voters is that there's much less anti-immigrant sentiment in the LDs, so Remain's failure to deal with immigration is nowhere near as big a deal. So while I see many Lib Dems as quieter and less enthusiastic than they were, I'd be surprised if there wasn't a sizeable Remain lead from LDs in the end,
We will see. You may be right.
I was very struck by the plea from an audience member on BBC QuestionTime who tried to remind us of all about one of the most positive aspects of the EU project, peace and stability in Europe.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
#facepalm