Imagine if you were a Euro establishmentarian of the Clarke/Clegg/Blair type. Exactly how p'd off would you currently feel towards dear old Dave today? You are about to loose the lot (45 years worth of planning) for a referendum that didn't need to be called and which no one really wanted.
Cameron will be handed a large glass of whisky and a revolver at the next Bilderberger get together...
I bet they're wishing they'd had a serious renegotiation and put themselves on the side of the "insurgents" and against the "elites" now!
This is 2016 not 1975...
All Dave had to do was get a better deal, or, failing that, explain that the deal on offer wasn't great, but he would work to do better over time etc. He got the mood music wrong from the very start.
The entire nation's (with the honorable exception of Mr Nabavi) bullshit meters wrapped around the endstop when he told he'd bought back a crock of gold rather than a crock of shit.
Still think remain will squeak it though. (Don't hope. It's the hope that kills you!)
You don't have to agree with it, but it isn't an argument that can be dismissed IMO. People take peace in Europe for granted, and some are even actively looking forward to the EU breaking up in the aftermath of a UK exit. But what do they see a continental Europe not bound together by the EU looking like?
Like any other continent. One with problems & arguing but working together.
North America and Oceania seem to manage pretty fine. As does Asia and South America.
That would be nice. I suppose past performance is no guide to future returns.
No. They used to fight in both North and south America and now seldom do.
I find the notion that over 70 years of peace is thanks to a political Union that came about in its current incarnation in 1993 offensive. I think NAFTA and the role our troops have played in the last seventy years may be owed more thanks than a 23 year old political Union.
Of course the EU was preceded by a trading bloc and if it did play any role in keeping peace then that is no reason to move from a trading bloc to integrated political Union.
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
No. Cameron was expecting to win by 60/40 at least: thereby routing the eurosceptics, cementing his legacy in place, and making the handover to Osborne a cinch.
Cf Nabavi, the most Cameroon pb-er in history, who talked lightly of winning maybe "70/30" just a year ago.
Your memory is clearly playing tricks. Almost immediately after the referendum date was announced on 20 February, OGH announced the competition sponsored by Wm Hill, asking the finest brains on PB.com to forecast the percentage vote for LEAVE and therefore by implication the vote for REMAIN. Over 340 people voted and the average vote showed the following forecast outcome: LEAVE ........... 45.85% REMAIN ......... 54.15% REMAIN Lead ... 8.30%
In other words, the consensus view at that time was that REMAIN's winning margin would prove to be, as I suggested, i.e. less than 10%.
HYUFD - but does Ed Milliband's vote hold up in Doncaster, I just don't see why it should.
Ed Miliband is not even in the Shadow Cabinet and a Leave vote will lead UKIP to wither on the vine, Doncaster will always vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party over a Thatcherite Tory Party
Other options are available - and Doncaster has form in going there.
Labour won Doncaster even in 1983 and Miliband won 52% in 2015 with UKIP second, with Leave the UKIP threat moves away
Doncaster was a different place then, with mining and rail works still abundent employers. Also, the UK political scene only had three parties and only one really left of centre. Since then, Doncaster Council first saw a large independent block and then the election of an English Democrat mayor. They might not vote Tory in sufficient numbers but it's a long time since it was died-in-the-wool Labour: the votes have to be won each and every time.
I must agree. The 'Little England' slogan seems designed to irritate people, and Rudd's comments about Boris Johnson were thoroughly despicable.
Mr. White, Mason's taking the Sturgeon line: he wants to vote to stay in [although he dislikes the EU] because it can help mitigate what our democratically elected government can do.
I really think it is a bad move by remain...it's coded language for racist. The vast majority of British people aren't & far more tolerant than most of the rest of Europe* & of course lots of people have genuine immigration concerns & sick of being labelled racist (many are immigrants themselves).
* it is actually a reason people chose to come to UK in first place.
People can be strange - I know people who are very worried about immigration, are definitely very racist in addition to that, but are leaning Remain of all things because the think Leave are talking just as much bollocks, the other EU nations will punish us hard for leaving, and they think Johnson is dangerous to have as PM.
Oh, anecdote alert.
You really should stop going to those BNP meetings ;-)
In fairness I bet BNP meetings are hilarious - a game of find the hidden cameras, a lot of assurances of how not racist everyone is, etc.
having spent a week trying to avoid tasteless fawning Muhammad Ali coverage, and having survived the best part of an earlier week avoiding the FX dramatization of OJ's trial (featuring John Travolta), ESPN begins tomorrow a 5 part documentary "OJ:Made in America."
All EU referendum all the time? I can only dream of such a wondrous prospect.
By the by, are we still supposed to support Europe at the Ryder Cup? I know the EU is not Europe, but there's a lot of EU flag waving there isn't there?
I bet they're wishing they'd had a serious renegotiation and put themselves on the side of the "insurgents" and against the "elites" now!
This is 2016 not 1975...
The renegotiation is what tipped me to Leave. Not so much because of Cameron's attitude [he was doing what he could with the understandable goal of an early vote], but that of the EU. They simply didn't register the seriousness of the threat.
But then I'm not the swing voter in this, it seems. It's Labour wot lost it.
By the by, are we still supposed to support Europe at the Ryder Cup? I know the EU is not Europe, but there's a lot of EU flag waving there isn't there?
It's just about the only time when I feel moderately European - but that's because some American golfers and spectators are very irritating! It's actually the PGA Tour v European Tour for Americans and Europeans. That is, you have to be affiliated with the European Tour to be selected. So I've got a feeling that Paul Casey isn't eligible. Personally I'd have ruled out anyone who couldn't be bothered to turn up at Wentworth for the flagship European Tour event (McIlroy and Rose).
By the by, are we still supposed to support Europe at the Ryder Cup? I know the EU is not Europe, but there's a lot of EU flag waving there isn't there?
Yep. Even more so once we are out. As you say the EU is not Europe and just because they want to hijack it doesn't mean we should stop supporting them. After all, most of the people who support Man United don't even live in Britain :-)
I bet they're wishing they'd had a serious renegotiation and put themselves on the side of the "insurgents" and against the "elites" now!
This is 2016 not 1975...
The renegotiation is what tipped me to Leave. Not so much because of Cameron's attitude [he was doing what he could with the understandable goal of an early vote], but that of the EU. They simply didn't register the seriousness of the threat.
But then I'm not the swing voter in this, it seems. It's Labour wot lost it.
I bet they're wishing they'd had a serious renegotiation and put themselves on the side of the "insurgents" and against the "elites" now!
This is 2016 not 1975...
The renegotiation is what tipped me to Leave. Not so much because of Cameron's attitude [he was doing what he could with the understandable goal of an early vote], but that of the EU. They simply didn't register the seriousness of the threat.
But then I'm not the swing voter in this, it seems. It's Labour wot lost it.
It was the same for me. Both the result of the re negotiation and then the EUs attitude.
Then being sold a bucket of sh*t as a pot of gold.
A part of me is wondering if this trending to Leave might encourage some Remainders at least - for the first weeks I barely came across anyone who I knew was Remain (and I'm not the sort to bring it up or proselytize for Leave), but in the last week or so I've come across many people saying they were for Remain, even a few saying it would be heatbreaking if we left.
But it'd be a weird remainder who welcomed close polls or leave leads on the basis that it was counter intuitively helpful.
By the by, are we still supposed to support Europe at the Ryder Cup? I know the EU is not Europe, but there's a lot of EU flag waving there isn't there?
I think it's allowed to feel European for three days every couple of years. Certainly the only time I ever do!
I bet they're wishing they'd had a serious renegotiation and put themselves on the side of the "insurgents" and against the "elites" now!
This is 2016 not 1975...
The renegotiation is what tipped me to Leave. Not so much because of Cameron's attitude [he was doing what he could with the understandable goal of an early vote], but that of the EU. They simply didn't register the seriousness of the threat.
But then I'm not the swing voter in this, it seems. It's Labour wot lost it.
Do you take a view on the odds?
I am on Leave currently. I had previously thought these odds about right. I don't know why they're the same now.
A part of me is wondering if this trending to Leave might encourage some Remainders at least - for the first weeks I barely came across anyone who I knew was Remain (and I'm not the sort to bring it up or proselytize for Leave), but in the last week or so I've come across many people saying they were for Remain, even a few saying it would be heatbreaking if we left.
But it'd be a weird remainder who welcomed close polls or leave leads on the basis that it was counter intuitively helpful.
I posted earlier that you could make the argument that fake leave leads were just being communicated to get remainers out to vote.
By the by, are we still supposed to support Europe at the Ryder Cup? I know the EU is not Europe, but there's a lot of EU flag waving there isn't there?
Europe is not the EU. So I will support my local football team, my county cricket association, my national bridge team at the Bermuda Bowl, the Team GB at the Olympics and the European Ryder and Sondheim cup teams.
I just cannot support a jumped up political construct.
Just remember that the BSIE name is actually incorrect.
It is "Britain Stronger in Europe" - it should be "Britain Stronger in the EU" - but anyone trying to campaign under that banner would be laughed out of town - as appears to be happening as people are catching on.
It is commonly agreed that the Labour REMAIN campaign has failed very badly. Yet not a word of blame sits with its head, Alan Johnson. Did he not have a plan?
Given Europe have won 11 of the last 14 Ryder cups, perhaps it is time to return to just GB & Ireland vs US....
I made that argument at work. We'd probably lose more often, but it wouldn't be the procession that it used to be.
On a more serious note, they need to really put an end to all this nonsense of having to be a European tour member. Best players should be playing from each side, and the best players play on the US PGA, and US PGA now owns European Tour.
A part of me is wondering if this trending to Leave might encourage some Remainders at least - for the first weeks I barely came across anyone who I knew was Remain (and I'm not the sort to bring it up or proselytize for Leave), but in the last week or so I've come across many people saying they were for Remain, even a few saying it would be heatbreaking if we left.
But it'd be a weird remainder who welcomed close polls or leave leads on the basis that it was counter intuitively helpful.
I posted earlier that you could make the argument that fake leave leads were just being communicated to get remainers out to vote.
I think that would require a degree of boldness lacking in our political classes!
I bet they're wishing they'd had a serious renegotiation and put themselves on the side of the "insurgents" and against the "elites" now!
This is 2016 not 1975...
The renegotiation is what tipped me to Leave. Not so much because of Cameron's attitude [he was doing what he could with the understandable goal of an early vote], but that of the EU. They simply didn't register the seriousness of the threat.
But then I'm not the swing voter in this, it seems. It's Labour wot lost it.
It was the same for me. Both the result of the re negotiation and then the EUs attitude.
Then being sold a bucket of sh*t as a pot of gold.
No! No! No!
We live in an era where all over the world people are rising up and revolting against the elites and the vested interests.
That Number Ten didn't see the danger that putting themselves on the side of the elites would spark off a (very British) mini revolution is amazing. Cameron needed serious reform and to come back with a deal that he could have presented to the British people in a way that made him look like he had taken on the elites and was on the side of the insurgents.
Instead he thought he take us all for fools and we'd all fall at that the feet of global demi-gods like Obama...
In the end, they may still scrape through with a REMAIN win but as I've said before the lost opportunity from Cam's renegotiation flop will be regarded as one of the greatest miscalculations in British political history..
Given Europe have won 11 of the last 14 Ryder cups, perhaps it is time to return to just GB & Ireland vs US....
I made that argument at work. We'd probably lose more often, but it wouldn't be the procession that it used to be.
On a more serious note, they need to really put an end to all this nonsense of having to be a European tour member. Best players should be playing from each side, and the best players play on the US PGA, and US PGA now owns European Tour.
I'm not sure. Whilst I wasn't too bothered about Rory and Justin not being at Wentworth, it's a shame that they didn't play the flagship event. It's a shame that they appear to have stopped doing the Seve Trophy in alternate years to the Ryder Cup. It's a good format and gives our players more matchplay experience.
I bet they're wishing they'd had a serious renegotiation and put themselves on the side of the "insurgents" and against the "elites" now!
This is 2016 not 1975...
The renegotiation is what tipped me to Leave. Not so much because of Cameron's attitude [he was doing what he could with the understandable goal of an early vote], but that of the EU. They simply didn't register the seriousness of the threat.
But then I'm not the swing voter in this, it seems. It's Labour wot lost it.
It was the same for me. Both the result of the re negotiation and then the EUs attitude.
Then being sold a bucket of sh*t as a pot of gold.
No! No! No!
We live in an era where all over the world people are rising up and revolting against the elites and the vested interests.
That Number Ten didn't see the danger in putting themselves on the side of the elites would spark off a (very British) mini revolution is amazing. Cameron needed serious reform and to come back with a deal that he could have presented to the British people in a way that made him look like he had taken on the elites and was on the side of the insurgents.
Instead he thought he take us all for fools and we'd all fall at that the feet of the global demi-gods like Obama...
In the end, they may still scrape through with a REMAIN win but as I've said before the lost opportunity from Cam's renegotiation flop will be regarded as one of the greatest miscalculations in British political history..
I bet they're wishing they'd had a serious renegotiation and put themselves on the side of the "insurgents" and against the "elites" now!
This is 2016 not 1975...
The renegotiation is what tipped me to Leave. Not so much because of Cameron's attitude [he was doing what he could with the understandable goal of an early vote], but that of the EU. They simply didn't register the seriousness of the threat.
But then I'm not the swing voter in this, it seems. It's Labour wot lost it.
Yes, it was the complete farce of the so-called "re-negotiation" that did it for me, coupled with Cameron's pathetic attempt to pretend he had achieved major advantages for the U.K. when in fact he had achieved virtually SFA - he tried to take us as fools and he made a critical mistake which will almost certainly cost him his job. All that said, whatever the result of the referendum, the one thing of which I am absolutely certain is that we will NEVER leave the EU. A deal will somehow be cobbled together over the next 3 - 5 years, led by the Germans who can't afford for us to leave either economically, or politically.
I bet they're wishing they'd had a serious renegotiation and put themselves on the side of the "insurgents" and against the "elites" now!
This is 2016 not 1975...
The renegotiation is what tipped me to Leave. Not so much because of Cameron's attitude [he was doing what he could with the understandable goal of an early vote], but that of the EU. They simply didn't register the seriousness of the threat.
But then I'm not the swing voter in this, it seems. It's Labour wot lost it.
Yes, it was the complete farce of the so-called "re-negotiation" that did it for me, coupled with Cameron's pathetic attempt to pretend he had achieved major advantages for the U.K. when in fact he had achieved virtually SFA - he tried to take us as fools and he made a critical mistake which will almost certainly cost him his job. All that said, whatever the result of the referendum, the one thing of which I am absolutely certain is that we will NEVER leave the EU. A deal will somehow be cobbled together over the next 3 - 5 years, led by the Germans who can't afford for us to leave either economically, or politically.
Well, if it is, we are in the EU for trade only... No free movement and no ECJ I may not get out the pitch forks, but otherwise...
I actually expect Europe may wake up and smell the tea, but we will see.
James Dyson coming out for brexit. That's a bit of a shock as his business does very well from making his expensive gadgets in eastern Europe. The current setup is very good for his business.
I love his quote about Brexit threat "it's cobblers"
In all honesty, I'm not sure how I'd react if we voted Leave and then the EU then actually made an offer I could live with (no, I don't have an exhaustive list of things). Legally there's no problem with a government deciding not to implement the first referendum because of a new, better offer, but I struggle to see how any government which proposed not to do so would last long enough to offer another one on the new terms.
A well written article by Nige, he's clearly seen the danger and is trying very, very hard to talk about immigration and the effects on public services and also using friendly phrases such as "non-discrimination" wrt to non-EU migrants. There isn't a lot to disagree with, though I think 30-50k net annual migration would probably be economically unviable in the UK, our state and public sector pensions burden is far too great. Unless we ditch the triple lock and prepare for months of strikes by the public sector the day after the government announces the end to all defined benefit schemes and moving existing DB schemes into DC schemes we, as a nation, will not be able to survive with migration below 100k.
The perception that Labour "must" do more to "stop Brexit" is based on the premise that that is the overwhelming top priority.
Even speaking as someone now leaning towards "Remain", I am utterly BAFFLED by this idea from the Labour high command that the EU is now their top driving force in politics - more than tackling inequality, more than helping the poor, more than strong public services, etc. Where was this urgency about how Labour had to "redouble their efforts" to turn public opinion against the Welfare Bill last summer?
A well written article by Nige, he's clearly seen the danger and is trying very, very hard to talk about immigration and the effects on public services and also using friendly phrases such as "non-discrimination" wrt to non-EU migrants. There isn't a lot to disagree with, though I think 30-50k net annual migration would probably be economically unviable in the UK, our state and public sector pensions burden is far too great. Unless we ditch the triple lock and prepare for months of strikes by the public sector the day after the government announces the end to all defined benefit schemes and moving existing DB schemes into DC schemes we, as a nation, will not be able to survive with migration below 100k.
Nah. Our birthrate is enough to keep the population growing not shrinking and we just need to keep the pension age going up a little.
HYUFD - but does Ed Milliband's vote hold up in Doncaster, I just don't see why it should.
Ed Miliband is not even in the Shadow Cabinet and a Leave vote will lead UKIP to wither on the vine, Doncaster will always vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party over a Thatcherite Tory Party
Other options are available - and Doncaster has form in going there.
Labour won Doncaster even in 1983 and Miliband won 52% in 2015 with UKIP second, with Leave the UKIP threat moves away
Doncaster was a different place then, with mining and rail works still abundent employers. Also, the UK political scene only had three parties and only one really left of centre. Since then, Doncaster Council first saw a large independent block and then the election of an English Democrat mayor. They might not vote Tory in sufficient numbers but it's a long time since it was died-in-the-wool Labour: the votes have to be won each and every time.
Well that is the same at every election but in 1983 Labour got 52% in Doncaster, in 2015 Miliband also got 52%
Disgraceful person x got a knighthood, shows how corrupt the honours system is.
There, no need for anyone else to say it tomorrow now.
If this were plural it might serve its intended purpose, as it is, not. Personally I'd make acceptance of any gong conditional on the recipient falling on his/ her sword. Not very British I know, but saves on bullets and scotch.
James Dyson coming out for brexit. That's a bit of a shock as his business does very well from making his expensive gadgets in eastern Europe. The current setup is very good for his business.
I love his quote about Brexit threat "it's cobblers"
Is that the same James Dyson who moved his UK manufacturing jobs to Malaysia back in 2003?
A well written article by Nige, he's clearly seen the danger and is trying very, very hard to talk about immigration and the effects on public services and also using friendly phrases such as "non-discrimination" wrt to non-EU migrants. There isn't a lot to disagree with, though I think 30-50k net annual migration would probably be economically unviable in the UK, our state and public sector pensions burden is far too great. Unless we ditch the triple lock and prepare for months of strikes by the public sector the day after the government announces the end to all defined benefit schemes and moving existing DB schemes into DC schemes we, as a nation, will not be able to survive with migration below 100k.
Nah. Our birthrate is enough to keep the population growing not shrinking and we just need to keep the pension age going up a little.
Our current birthrate is just about high enough, but the birthrate from 20-40 years ago wasn't so the baby boomers have no one to pay for their pensions and healthcare now that they are retiring. We'd need to freeze the state pension and close all DB schemes in the public sector to lower migration to the level Nigel desires.
Sometimes I find the Guardian almost physically painful to read, so disconnected are they from my own experiences. I would like to share my pain by offering you this:
Remain or Leave, Britain is not going to be happy place after this vote. The defeated side is not going to reconcile itself easily to the outcome.
That I'm afraid is the nature of the battle that's been fought. It's been nasty and personal.
I do think though that a leave vote would be easier to heal.
Sadly kind of unavoidable if the politicos deny us a vote since 1975 despite numerous treaties with a one way direction. Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice, and above all Lisbon we were all patted on the head and told to shut up as it didn't matter and our leaders knew better. All that was a yellow card for me turned red by Dave's pathetic charade of a renegotiation, which he tried to sell as the greatest thing since sliced bread. I do not like being taken for a complete fool. Success or not I will extract my revenge with a pencil shortly after the polls open on the 23rd.
I bet they're wishing they'd had a serious renegotiation and put themselves on the side of the "insurgents" and against the "elites" now!
This is 2016 not 1975...
The renegotiation is what tipped me to Leave. Not so much because of Cameron's attitude [he was doing what he could with the understandable goal of an early vote], but that of the EU. They simply didn't register the seriousness of the threat.
But then I'm not the swing voter in this, it seems. It's Labour wot lost it.
Do you take a view on the odds?
I am on Leave currently. I had previously thought these odds about right. I don't know why they're the same now.
Yeah.
I've had remain as a 1/3 for months - but built into that was an expectation the polls would cement, or shift at least a little to the status quo.
A well written article by Nige, he's clearly seen the danger and is trying very, very hard to talk about immigration and the effects on public services and also using friendly phrases such as "non-discrimination" wrt to non-EU migrants. There isn't a lot to disagree with, though I think 30-50k net annual migration would probably be economically unviable in the UK, our state and public sector pensions burden is far too great. Unless we ditch the triple lock and prepare for months of strikes by the public sector the day after the government announces the end to all defined benefit schemes and moving existing DB schemes into DC schemes we, as a nation, will not be able to survive with migration below 100k.
Nah. Our birthrate is enough to keep the population growing not shrinking and we just need to keep the pension age going up a little.
Our current birthrate is just about high enough, but the birthrate from 20-40 years ago wasn't so the baby boomers have no one to pay for their pensions and healthcare now that they are retiring. We'd need to freeze the state pension and close all DB schemes in the public sector to lower migration to the level Nigel desires.
Our current birth rate is being driven by immigrants. If we have fewer it will decline. That's an issue that Boris is going to have to look at carefully, though on a personal level he has certainly done his best :-)
Remain or Leave, Britain is not going to be happy place after this vote. The defeated side is not going to reconcile itself easily to the outcome.
That I'm afraid is the nature of the battle that's been fought. It's been nasty and personal.
I do think though that a leave vote would be easier to heal.
Not if it turns out Leave were selling snake oil.
Cheer up SO, you've been miserable ever since Corbyn was elected. As Balfour said, nothing matters very much and few things matter at all. The UK has been through a hell of a lot worse than leaving a customs union with delusions of grandeur.
Sometimes I find the Guardian almost physically painful to read, so disconnected are they from my own experiences. I would like to share my pain by offering you this:
Anecdote alert. Signing on in the jobcentre today my work coach pointed out that he wasn't going to be there in two weeks because he was taking the day off. The reason? He was going to be staying up to watch the results from the referendum. And he said if we don't leave he's resigning!
Sometimes I find the Guardian almost physically painful to read, so disconnected are they from my own experiences. I would like to share my pain by offering you this:
Sometimes I find the Guardian almost physically painful to read, so disconnected are they from my own experiences. I would like to share my pain by offering you this:
Remain or Leave, Britain is not going to be happy place after this vote. The defeated side is not going to reconcile itself easily to the outcome.
That I'm afraid is the nature of the battle that's been fought. It's been nasty and personal.
I do think though that a leave vote would be easier to heal.
Really, I suspect there will be recriminations and very unhappy people either way. Nothing special about Leave.
Disagree. When we vote to Leave there'll be few big issues unless it turns out Leave were wrong and there is no golden dawn. Should Remain somehow fashion a very unlikely win from here the Leavers will be splitting blood.
Anecdote alert. Signing on in the jobcentre today my work coach pointed out that he wasn't going to be there in two weeks because he was taking the day off. The reason? He was going to be staying up to watch the results from the referendum. And he said if we don't leave he's resigning!
Comments
The entire nation's (with the honorable exception of Mr Nabavi) bullshit meters wrapped around the endstop when he told he'd bought back a crock of gold rather than a crock of shit.
Still think remain will squeak it though. (Don't hope. It's the hope that kills you!)
Of course the EU was preceded by a trading bloc and if it did play any role in keeping peace then that is no reason to move from a trading bloc to integrated political Union.
Over 340 people voted and the average vote showed the following forecast outcome:
LEAVE ........... 45.85%
REMAIN ......... 54.15%
REMAIN Lead ... 8.30%
In other words, the consensus view at that time was that REMAIN's winning margin would prove to be, as I suggested, i.e. less than 10%.
New Harry Potter play forced to scrap use of live owls in its first week after one of the birds escaped from stage and flew around the audience
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3635403/New-Harry-Potter-play-forced-scrap-use-live-owls-week-one-birds-escaped-stage-flew-audience.html
I gather they thought it was part of the plot line (TIC)
But then I'm not the swing voter in this, it seems. It's Labour wot lost it.
Then being sold a bucket of sh*t as a pot of gold.
No! No! No!
But it'd be a weird remainder who welcomed close polls or leave leads on the basis that it was counter intuitively helpful.
I just cannot support a jumped up political construct.
Just remember that the BSIE name is actually incorrect.
It is "Britain Stronger in Europe" - it should be
"Britain Stronger in the EU" - but anyone trying to campaign under that banner would be laughed out of town - as appears to be happening as people are catching on.
I wonder what the polls will bring.
That Number Ten didn't see the danger that putting themselves on the side of the elites would spark off a (very British) mini revolution is amazing. Cameron needed serious reform and to come back with a deal that he could have presented to the British people in a way that made him look like he had taken on the elites and was on the side of the insurgents.
Instead he thought he take us all for fools and we'd all fall at that the feet of global demi-gods like Obama...
In the end, they may still scrape through with a REMAIN win but as I've said before the lost opportunity from Cam's renegotiation flop will be regarded as one of the greatest miscalculations in British political history..
All that said, whatever the result of the referendum, the one thing of which I am absolutely certain is that we will NEVER leave the EU. A deal will somehow be cobbled together over the next 3 - 5 years, led by the Germans who can't afford for us to leave either economically, or politically.
Also for old Etonian Tories. At least the grammar school boys and girls gave a toss.
I am campaigning for leave.
I actually expect Europe may wake up and smell the tea, but we will see.
There, no need for anyone else to say it tomorrow now.
A well written article by Nige, he's clearly seen the danger and is trying very, very hard to talk about immigration and the effects on public services and also using friendly phrases such as "non-discrimination" wrt to non-EU migrants. There isn't a lot to disagree with, though I think 30-50k net annual migration would probably be economically unviable in the UK, our state and public sector pensions burden is far too great. Unless we ditch the triple lock and prepare for months of strikes by the public sector the day after the government announces the end to all defined benefit schemes and moving existing DB schemes into DC schemes we, as a nation, will not be able to survive with migration below 100k.
Even speaking as someone now leaning towards "Remain", I am utterly BAFFLED by this idea from the Labour high command that the EU is now their top driving force in politics - more than tackling inequality, more than helping the poor, more than strong public services, etc. Where was this urgency about how Labour had to "redouble their efforts" to turn public opinion against the Welfare Bill last summer?
I do think though that a leave vote would be easier to heal.
If I have time I'll give my totally unbiased opinion later.
The awful groaner is a Roderick, like me...
If leave win, I can't see remain doing the same.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/10/queen-elizabeth-90th-birtday-street-parties-middel-class-nationalism-british-empire
It's beyond satire etc.
"Like all radical projects, communism being the archetype, that of the EU was conceived without a Plan B. Hence it is destined to collapse"
"We envisage few political evils worse than that of a government that controls us, but which we cannot control"
I've had remain as a 1/3 for months - but built into that was an expectation the polls would cement, or shift at least a little to the status quo.
That hasn't happened.
It really is starting to look like a 50/50 shot.
WATCH: @JohnMannMP - It’s better to #TakeControl of our borders and create a fairer immigration system #VoteLeave
https://t.co/dKGesXoXn8
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/1257718/poll-reveals-david-cameron-makes-voters-twice-as-likely-to-back-brexit-in-body-blow-for-pm/