I must agree. The 'Little England' slogan seems designed to irritate people, and Rudd's comments about Boris Johnson were thoroughly despicable.
Mr. White, Mason's taking the Sturgeon line: he wants to vote to stay in [although he dislikes the EU] because it can help mitigate what our democratically elected government can do.
I really think it is a bad move by remain...it's coded language for racist. The vast majority of British people aren't & far more tolerant than most of the rest of Europe* & of course lots of people have genuine immigration concerns & sick of being labelled racist (many are immigrants themselves).
* it is actually a reason people chose to come to UK in first place.
Farage doing well on BBC with Neil. Farage has prepared.
It's not a car crash, which is what I was worried about. Seems to have some PB lines too,,,
From what I understand nigel can't turn a pc on let alone be likely be a pb reg, but hi to Nige assistant...and hi to Dave...go easy on those fags....fags have feelings too.
I must agree. The 'Little England' slogan seems designed to irritate people, and Rudd's comments about Boris Johnson were thoroughly despicable.
Mr. White, Mason's taking the Sturgeon line: he wants to vote to stay in [although he dislikes the EU] because it can help mitigate what our democratically elected government can do.
I really think it is a bad move by remain...it's coded language for racist. The vast majority of British people aren't & far more tolerant than most of the rest of Europe* & of course lots of people have genuine immigration concerns & sick of being labelled racist (many are immigrants themselves).
* it is actually a reason people chose to come to UK in first place.
People can be strange - I know people who are very worried about immigration, are definitely very racist in addition to that, but are leaning Remain of all things because the think Leave are talking just as much bollocks, the other EU nations will punish us hard for leaving, and they think Johnson is dangerous to have as PM.
I'm really upset about this. I knew the decision by StrongerIn to go so negative would be a backfire. They have stopped making practical arguments and instead they have spent their time talking about how awful Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are. People are not fools. They know this is a referendum on EU membership and not on the men leading the Brexit campaign. We need a positive vision for the European Union and we are not hearing it.
I can sympathise absolutely with that. I feel the same way about the Leave campaign. It just seems at the moment that the Leave campaign is slightly less absolutely rubbish than the Remain campaign. But there is not much between the two to be honest.
I know which side of the argument I want to win. I just wish both campaigns could lose because whichever wins people are going to think that is a successful template for future campaigns.
Did you watch the debate last night? I thought Leave put forward a very civilized case.
I must admit I thought the arguments made by Leave last night were miles better than normal. But I am kind of expecting them to revert to type. If they choose to go positive at this point they could do wonders as I think there is a great positive case to be made but I just don't see it. I think they will stick with the formula that has worked for them so far and hope it is enough to see them over the line.
Obviously any win is good for me. But that doesn't mean I have to like or agree with the way the campaign has been run. One reason amongst many I suppose why I would suck at politics.
I must agree. The 'Little England' slogan seems designed to irritate people, and Rudd's comments about Boris Johnson were thoroughly despicable.
Mr. White, Mason's taking the Sturgeon line: he wants to vote to stay in [although he dislikes the EU] because it can help mitigate what our democratically elected government can do.
I really think it is a bad move by remain...it's coded language for racist. The vast majority of British people aren't & far more tolerant than most of the rest of Europe* & of course lots of people have genuine immigration concerns & sick of being labelled racist (many are immigrants themselves).
* it is actually a reason people chose to come to UK in first place.
People can be strange - I know people who are very worried about immigration, are definitely very racist in addition to that, but are leaning Remain of all things because the think Leave are talking just as much bollocks, the other EU nations will punish us hard for leaving, and they think Johnson is dangerous to have as PM.
Oh, anecdote alert.
You really should stop going to those BNP meetings ;-)
If high turnout, Remain wins. If low turnout, Leave wins. Dave will survive any confidence vote by his MPs.
Assumptions, assumptions....
This poll implies it will be a high turnout and leave will win?
I saw an argument recently that said: if Low turnout, Leave win If medium turnout, Remain win If high turnout, Leave win
The people who really care are Brexiters. But the disengaged are also Brexiters, Remain have to encourage enough turnout to nullify the former without behaving like such egregious twatbaskets that the normally disengaged turn out against them.
I must agree. The 'Little England' slogan seems designed to irritate people, and Rudd's comments about Boris Johnson were thoroughly despicable.
Mr. White, Mason's taking the Sturgeon line: he wants to vote to stay in [although he dislikes the EU] because it can help mitigate what our democratically elected government can do.
I really think it is a bad move by remain...it's coded language for racist. The vast majority of British people aren't & far more tolerant than most of the rest of Europe* & of course lots of people have genuine immigration concerns & sick of being labelled racist (many are immigrants themselves).
* it is actually a reason people chose to come to UK in first place.
People can be strange - I know people who are very worried about immigration, are definitely very racist in addition to that, but are leaning Remain of all things because the think Leave are talking just as much bollocks, the other EU nations will punish us hard for leaving, and they think Johnson is dangerous to have as PM.
Oh, anecdote alert.
You really should stop going to those BNP meetings ;-)
In fairness I bet BNP meetings are hilarious - a game of find the hidden cameras, a lot of assurances of how not racist everyone is, etc.
Dr Palmer's canvassing hasn't picked up these dramatic changes. Must be a rogue.
But John Mann's has.
It should be noted that John Mann has done very well electorally in the sort of wwc area that has otherwise trended rightwards.
So he's probably got a good feel for the local voters.
A few minor anecdotes:
Politicians generally are being spoken of in unflattering terms.
Several people have heaped abuse on Osborne after his Neil interview - and the people heaping the abuse work in export manufacturing and are knowledgeable about business and financial issues.
Multiple Leave leaflets and no Remain being received and the VoteLeave leaflets look rather cleverly like standard Labour party leaflets - blocks of red and the NHS featured prominently.
Lots of comments about BHS - people are not happy about fatcats and big business generally.
Anyway, in ten minutes my daughters will all be in bed and I mus decide whether to spend my evening watching the highlights of the cricket or watching France vs Romania. I like cricket better than football, but I like love action better than highlights (although Channel 5's coverage is very good) and I like big tournaments better than dead rubbers at the end of a series. What a lovely decision for a Friday night...
Anyway, in ten minutes my daughters will all be in bed and I mus decide whether to spend my evening watching the highlights of the cricket or watching France vs Romania. I like cricket better than football, but I like love action better than highlights (although Channel 5's coverage is very good) and I like big tournaments better than dead rubbers at the end of a series. What a lovely decision for a Friday night...
Is he worried about an extra tax on wigs with Brexit?
Michael Fabricant @Mike_Fabricant Like other eurosceptics, I’ve been re-thinking about #Europe. I am making a personal statement in @ConHome this weekend.
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
my mum(a muslim asian) thought the current e.u migrants already here would have to leave if we LEAVE. I told her the current migrants will have a right to stay and she said "whats the point then" but is still staunchly LEAVE.
Anecdata alert: Ethnic minorities are not as for REMAIN as you think large nubers will vote Leave including my mums beatician who has a son working in Germany.
my mum(a muslim asian) thought the current e.u migrants already here would have to leave if we LEAVE. I told her the current migrants will have a right to stay and she said "whats the point then" but is still staunchly LEAVE.
Anecdata alert: Ethnic minorities are not as for REMAIN as you think large nubers will vote Leave including my mums beatician who has a son working in Germany.
While I wouldn't advocate forced deportations, I'd have more respect for Dave's renegotiation if the ban on claiming benefits applied to those already here. That is, they can stay, but they are treated as having just arrived.
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
I'd say that the Cameroons were expecting a repeat of 1975 and a 2:1 victory.
Is he worried about an extra tax on wigs with Brexit?
Michael Fabricant @Mike_Fabricant Like other eurosceptics, I’ve been re-thinking about #Europe. I am making a personal statement in @ConHome this weekend.
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
No. Cameron was expecting to win by 60/40 at least: thereby routing the eurosceptics, cementing his legacy in place, and making the handover to Osborne a cinch.
Cf Nabavi, the most Cameroon pb-er in history, who talked lightly of winning maybe "70/30" just a year ago.
And that was when he was 'undecided'.
After the great triumphant renegotiation he was probably expecting 75/25.
Is he worried about an extra tax on wigs with Brexit?
Michael Fabricant @Mike_Fabricant Like other eurosceptics, I’ve been re-thinking about #Europe. I am making a personal statement in @ConHome this weekend.
I heard a rumour he was making mischief.
If Fabricant appears on national tv, I do not think that would benefit the side that he is backing.
my mum(a muslim asian) thought the current e.u migrants already here would have to leave if we LEAVE. I told her the current migrants will have a right to stay and she said "whats the point then" but is still staunchly LEAVE.
Anecdata alert: Ethnic minorities are not as for REMAIN as you think large nubers will vote Leave including my mums beatician who has a son working in Germany.
I think ethnic minorities are as remain as I think... Because I think they are on balance more leave than remain. The EU offers them little as far as I can tell.
I'm really upset about this. I knew the decision by StrongerIn to go so negative would be a backfire. They have stopped making practical arguments and instead they have spent their time talking about how awful Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are. People are not fools. They know this is a referendum on EU membership and not on the men leading the Brexit campaign. We need a positive vision for the European Union and we are not hearing it.
I can sympathise absolutely with that. I feel the same way about the Leave campaign. It just seems at the moment that the Leave campaign is slightly less absolutely rubbish than the Remain campaign. But there is not much between the two to be honest.
I know which side of the argument I want to win. I just wish both campaigns could lose because whichever wins people are going to think that is a successful template for future campaigns.
Did you watch the debate last night? I thought Leave put forward a very civilized case.
I must admit I thought the arguments made by Leave last night were miles better than normal. But I am kind of expecting them to revert to type. If they choose to go positive at this point they could do wonders as I think there is a great positive case to be made but I just don't see it. I think they will stick with the formula that has worked for them so far and hope it is enough to see them over the line.
Obviously any win is good for me. But that doesn't mean I have to like or agree with the way the campaign has been run. One reason amongst many I suppose why I would suck at politics.
I think both campaigns have been appalling. Two really big losses clocked up.
1) A proper debate would have aired the real issues and would hopefully have drawn a line under the rancour.
2) Both sides have records which would make anyone queasy about being on the same side as them.
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
I'd say that the Cameroons were expecting a repeat of 1975 and a 2:1 victory.
My prediction is still (I nearly typed remains!) a Leave win by 5%. Leave holds provincial and shire England and the grip is tightening there. In addition it is taking close to 50% of the vote in Labour heartlands (including Wales). The BBC interviews in the valleys this week have been extraordinary. Remain have to secure massive turn out levels in London and Scotland (and in the odds and sods i.e Gib and nationalist Ulster) to have a hope. I have been canvassing and delivering (Bedfordshire) and the OUTlot are absolutely fired up. Has anyone detected any enthusiasm for IN anywhere? Thank god for Cameron's arrogance in deciding that he would lead the IN campaign (the Alan Yentob of British politics?). He is doing a fantastic job at alienating the Labour vote who might once have been relied upon for IN. My guess is the desire to slap Cameron and Osborne hard (and boot 'em out of Downing St) will play powerfully for Leave on the 23rd.
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
No. Cameron was expecting to win by 60/40 at least: thereby routing the eurosceptics, cementing his legacy in place, and making the handover to Osborne a cinch.
Cf Nabavi, the most Cameroon pb-er in history, who talked lightly of winning maybe "70/30" just a year ago.
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
No. Cameron was expecting to win by 60/40 at least: thereby routing the eurosceptics, cementing his legacy in place, and making the handover to Osborne a cinch.
Cf Nabavi, the most Cameroon pb-er in history, who talked lightly of winning maybe "70/30" just a year ago.
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
I'd say that the Cameroons were expecting a repeat of 1975 and a 2:1 victory.
Certainly Richard Nabavi was.
We kept seeing 60/40 predictions for REMAIN.
They'll take 50.01% and be relieved and grateful if they get it.
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
No. Cameron was expecting to win by 60/40 at least: thereby routing the eurosceptics, cementing his legacy in place, and making the handover to Osborne a cinch.
Cf Nabavi, the most Cameroon pb-er in history, who talked lightly of winning maybe "70/30" just a year ago.
60% - Settled for a generation.
55% - Resolved, but not for long.
52% - The fight is just starting.
Ordinarily I'd agree, but this is the EU we're dealing with here. They have form, as we all know.
It is like this:
50.000001+ remain : settled forever.
51+ leave : new terms offered and invited to think again, rinse, repeat.
Is he worried about an extra tax on wigs with Brexit?
Michael Fabricant @Mike_Fabricant Like other eurosceptics, I’ve been re-thinking about #Europe. I am making a personal statement in @ConHome this weekend.
I heard a rumour he was making mischief.
If Fabricant appears on national tv, I do not think that would benefit the side that he is backing.
Granted. Do you think he might jump to remain to sink their ship?
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
No. Cameron was expecting to win by 60/40 at least: thereby routing the eurosceptics, cementing his legacy in place, and making the handover to Osborne a cinch.
Cf Nabavi, the most Cameroon pb-er in history, who talked lightly of winning maybe "70/30" just a year ago.
having spent a week trying to avoid tasteless fawning Muhammad Ali coverage, and having survived the best part of an earlier week avoiding the FX dramatization of OJ's trial (featuring John Travolta), ESPN begins tomorrow a 5 part documentary "OJ:Made in America."
All EU referendum all the time? I can only dream of such a wondrous prospect.
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
No. Cameron was expecting to win by 60/40 at least: thereby routing the eurosceptics, cementing his legacy in place, and making the handover to Osborne a cinch.
Cf Nabavi, the most Cameroon pb-er in history, who talked lightly of winning maybe "70/30" just a year ago.
Is he worried about an extra tax on wigs with Brexit?
Michael Fabricant @Mike_Fabricant Like other eurosceptics, I’ve been re-thinking about #Europe. I am making a personal statement in @ConHome this weekend.
I heard a rumour he was making mischief.
If Fabricant appears on national tv, I do not think that would benefit the side that he is backing.
Granted. Do you think he might jump to remain to sink their ship?
Mr. Urquhart, if the margin of victory for Remain is less than those who registered during the 48 hour registration extension there may be a legal challenge.
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
No. Cameron was expecting to win by 60/40 at least: thereby routing the eurosceptics, cementing his legacy in place, and making the handover to Osborne a cinch.
Cf Nabavi, the most Cameroon pb-er in history, who talked lightly of winning maybe "70/30" just a year ago.
60% - Settled for a generation.
55% - Resolved, but not for long.
52% - The fight is just starting.
The last one, game on for every election, rounding up the troops, sharpening the pitch forks etc, It will be interesting.
having spent a week trying to avoid tasteless fawning Muhammad Ali coverage, and having survived the best part of an earlier week avoiding the FX dramatization of OJ's trial (featuring John Travolta), ESPN begins tomorrow a 5 part documentary "OJ:Made in America."
All EU referendum all the time? I can only dream of such a wondrous prospect.
Not excited for the latest installment of top gear?
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
No. Cameron was expecting to win by 60/40 at least: thereby routing the eurosceptics, cementing his legacy in place, and making the handover to Osborne a cinch.
Cf Nabavi, the most Cameroon pb-er in history, who talked lightly of winning maybe "70/30" just a year ago.
60% - Settled for a generation.
55% - Resolved, but not for long.
52% - The fight is just starting.
Ordinarily I'd agree, but this is the EU we're dealing with here. They have form, as we all know.
It is like this:
50.000001+ remain : settled forever.
51+ leave : new terms offered and invited to think again, rinse, repeat.
If we vote to go, the EU will decide that they are happy to see us go and will get on with building the sort of EU they want without having the Brits moaning all the time.
my mum(a muslim asian) thought the current e.u migrants already here would have to leave if we LEAVE. I told her the current migrants will have a right to stay and she said "whats the point then" but is still staunchly LEAVE.
Anecdata alert: Ethnic minorities are not as for REMAIN as you think large nubers will vote Leave including my mums beatician who has a son working in Germany.
I think ethnic minorities are as remain as I think... Because I think they are on balance more leave than remain. The EU offers them little as far as I can tell.
Does the son like Germany?
Another anecdote alert: my boss (a Muslim 2nd/3rd generation Bangladeshi immigrant) is strongly for Leave, on the grounds of immigration. And doing street stalls/canvassing ethnic minorities seem more Leave-ish.
Mr. Urquhart, if the margin of victory for Remain is less than those who registered during the 48 hour registration extension there may be a legal challenge.
More amusingly, there may be a legal challenge from Remain if they lose by a similar margin!
Mr. Urquhart, if the margin of victory for Remain is less than those who registered during the 48 hour registration extension there may be a legal challenge.
For what purpose? The result of the referendum isn't technically legally binding on Parliament anyway, so a judicial challenge would achieve nothing, regardless of the outcome. Apart from highlighting that the Leavers aren't quite so keen on "democracy" as they make out
Mr. Urquhart, if the margin of victory for Remain is less than those who registered during the 48 hour registration extension there may be a legal challenge.
More amusingly, there may be a legal challenge from Remain if they lose by a similar margin!
On the grounds that they didn't like the way they tried to fix it?
If Leave wins and Gove backs Boris, then Boris will walk into Downing Street.
But could Gove back Leadsom? If he does, could she come from nowhere to the top job in a few weeks? Must be a chance.
Earlier on this week, I was told by someone who knows their stuff, if Dave goes on June 24th, Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign manager
Surely that would be the most bizarre move since Redwood backed Clarke?
Boris would team up with Leadsom and trounce them! It did not work with Clarke and it would not work for Osborne. Brexit means the final annihiliation of New Labour and also the defeat of Cameroonism. Boris and Leadsom would take the Tories to the right and Corbyn would take Labour back to its Old Labour roots and with the Tories tightening up immigration that would be less of an issue in a post-EU Britain
Mr. B, important developments will happen this weekend, as F1 visits Canada.
I do like the Canadian circuit.
Mr Dancer, just finished watching P2. Mercs are ahead but not by as much as we thought they would. Good competition behind by both RB and Ferrari though,my here will be a big fight for the top six positions tomorrow.
Thoughts also from the Sky commentators that the qualifying strategy tried by Ricciardo in Monaco might also work here - the ultra-soft tyres are a little quicker around a very quick lap, but the super-softs are going to be better for the first stint of the race with a heavy car.
my mum(a muslim asian) thought the current e.u migrants already here would have to leave if we LEAVE. I told her the current migrants will have a right to stay and she said "whats the point then" but is still staunchly LEAVE.
Anecdata alert: Ethnic minorities are not as for REMAIN as you think large nubers will vote Leave including my mums beatician who has a son working in Germany.
I think ethnic minorities are as remain as I think... Because I think they are on balance more leave than remain. The EU offers them little as far as I can tell.
Does the son like Germany?
Another anecdote alert: my boss (a Muslim 2nd/3rd generation Bangladeshi immigrant) is strongly for Leave, on the grounds of immigration. And doing street stalls/canvassing ethnic minorities seem more Leave-ish.
My most Leave orientated medical colleagues are the Asian ones. Some of the things they say would make Farage blush.
But there are also some very quiet ones voting Remain, so all very hard to tell.
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
No. Cameron was expecting to win by 60/40 at least: thereby routing the eurosceptics, cementing his legacy in place, and making the handover to Osborne a cinch.
Cf Nabavi, the most Cameroon pb-er in history, who talked lightly of winning maybe "70/30" just a year ago.
60% - Settled for a generation.
55% - Resolved, but not for long.
52% - The fight is just starting.
Ordinarily I'd agree, but this is the EU we're dealing with here. They have form, as we all know.
It is like this:
50.000001+ remain : settled forever.
51+ leave : new terms offered and invited to think again, rinse, repeat.
If we vote to go, the EU will decide that they are happy to see us go and will get on with building the sort of EU they want without having the Brits moaning all the time.
That's not the German perspective, according to Herr Schauble. They love us.
Mr. Urquhart, if the margin of victory for Remain is less than those who registered during the 48 hour registration extension there may be a legal challenge.
More amusingly, there may be a legal challenge from Remain if they lose by a similar margin!
If it's 51:49 either way there will be chaos. The conduct of almost everyone involved in the process has been terrible and there's lots of challenges that could reasonably be made.
55:45 either way would settle it from the point of view of a legal challenge, but won't stop the fighting - a losing Leave side will be energised by the EU taking a narrow remain as cue for the full fat USoE, a losing Remain side will be desparate to ensure the leaving is done in the most minimal technical way possible using all available tactics in Parliament.
my mum(a muslim asian) thought the current e.u migrants already here would have to leave if we LEAVE. I told her the current migrants will have a right to stay and she said "whats the point then" but is still staunchly LEAVE.
Anecdata alert: Ethnic minorities are not as for REMAIN as you think large nubers will vote Leave including my mums beatician who has a son working in Germany.
I think ethnic minorities are as remain as I think... Because I think they are on balance more leave than remain. The EU offers them little as far as I can tell.
Does the son like Germany?
Another anecdote alert: my boss (a Muslim 2nd/3rd generation Bangladeshi immigrant) is strongly for Leave, on the grounds of immigration. And doing street stalls/canvassing ethnic minorities seem more Leave-ish.
My most Leave orientated medical colleagues are the Asian ones. Some of the things they say would make Farage blush.
But there are also some very quiet ones voting Remain, so all very hard to tell.
What sort of things do they say that would make Farage blush? Go on, do tell!
Do remainers want to become part of a European superstate, or do they want to prevent Europe from becoming a state? It's got to be one of the two. If it's the latter, why do you want to prevent the EU nations becoming a state - one of its founding ambitions? If the former, why not be honest about it?
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
No. Cameron was expecting to win by 60/40 at least: thereby routing the eurosceptics, cementing his legacy in place, and making the handover to Osborne a cinch.
Cf Nabavi, the most Cameroon pb-er in history, who talked lightly of winning maybe "70/30" just a year ago.
60% - Settled for a generation.
55% - Resolved, but not for long.
52% - The fight is just starting.
Ordinarily I'd agree, but this is the EU we're dealing with here. They have form, as we all know.
It is like this:
50.000001+ remain : settled forever.
51+ leave : new terms offered and invited to think again, rinse, repeat.
If we vote to go, the EU will decide that they are happy to see us go and will get on with building the sort of EU they want without having the Brits moaning all the time.
That's not the German perspective, according to Herr Schauble. They love us.
Er - I thought he said that if we voted to go, we go, and there will be no particular move by the EU to accommodate us...
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
No. Cameron was expecting to win by 60/40 at least: thereby routing the eurosceptics, cementing his legacy in place, and making the handover to Osborne a cinch.
Cf Nabavi, the most Cameroon pb-er in history, who talked lightly of winning maybe "70/30" just a year ago.
60% - Settled for a generation.
55% - Resolved, but not for long.
52% - The fight is just starting.
Ordinarily I'd agree, but this is the EU we're dealing with here. They have form, as we all know.
It is like this:
50.000001+ remain : settled forever.
51+ leave : new terms offered and invited to think again, rinse, repeat.
If we vote to go, the EU will decide that they are happy to see us go and will get on with building the sort of EU they want without having the Brits moaning all the time.
That's not the German perspective, according to Herr Schauble. They love us.
Mr. Urquhart, if the margin of victory for Remain is less than those who registered during the 48 hour registration extension there may be a legal challenge.
More amusingly, there may be a legal challenge from Remain if they lose by a similar margin!
On the grounds that they didn't like the way they tried to fix it?
I don't think there will be any challenges. We talk about these things on here all the time, and they rarely happen. The result will be what it is. That said, I see the Austrian bloke is challenging the result of the Presidential election.
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
No. Cameron was expecting to win by 60/40 at least: thereby routing the eurosceptics, cementing his legacy in place, and making the handover to Osborne a cinch.
Cf Nabavi, the most Cameroon pb-er in history, who talked lightly of winning maybe "70/30" just a year ago.
60% - Settled for a generation.
55% - Resolved, but not for long.
52% - The fight is just starting.
Ordinarily I'd agree, but this is the EU we're dealing with here. They have form, as we all know.
It is like this:
50.000001+ remain : settled forever.
51+ leave : new terms offered and invited to think again, rinse, repeat.
If we vote to go, the EU will decide that they are happy to see us go and will get on with building the sort of EU they want without having the Brits moaning all the time.
That's not the German perspective, according to Herr Schauble. They love us.
Er - I thought he said that if we voted to go, we go, and there will be no particular move by the EU to accommodate us...
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
No. Cameron was expecting to win by 60/40 at least: thereby routing the eurosceptics, cementing his legacy in place, and making the handover to Osborne a cinch.
Cf Nabavi, the most Cameroon pb-er in history, who talked lightly of winning maybe "70/30" just a year ago.
60% - Settled for a generation.
55% - Resolved, but not for long.
52% - The fight is just starting.
The last one, game on for every election, rounding up the troops, sharpening the pitch forks etc, It will be interesting.
It would be wonderful if turnout for the referendum were really high, with people who have never bothered to vote getting engaged.
It seems to me that our UK politics has followed along in the same direction that EU politics is so proud of: the elite telling the little people what's good for them (which, surprise surprise, turns out to be what's good for the masters instead).
Quite apart from my decision that the UK would be doing well to leave the EU, I would love to see all the little people ganging up on the elite and giving them a kick where it hurts.
If they do, I only hope they will respond just as vigorously to a Try Again referendum.
Mr. Urquhart, if the margin of victory for Remain is less than those who registered during the 48 hour registration extension there may be a legal challenge.
More amusingly, there may be a legal challenge from Remain if they lose by a similar margin!
If it's 51:49 either way there will be chaos. The conduct of almost everyone involved in the process has been terrible and there's lots of challenges that could reasonably be made.
By an enormous margin, the most overtly racist person I've ever met was a Sikh (this was when I lived in Beeston, Leeds). He'd handover my ciggies (disgusting habit!) while making the most scurrilous observations on the habits, mores and general fitness to live of the local Pakistani population.
Is the best book to come out after the vote about the referendum, going to be about what is going on in the REMAIN camp? Mandelson, Osborne, Rudd, Straw, Kinnocks, Danny Alexander, June Sarpong?
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
No. Cameron was expecting to win by 60/40 at least: thereby routing the eurosceptics, cementing his legacy in place, and making the handover to Osborne a cinch.
Cf Nabavi, the most Cameroon pb-er in history, who talked lightly of winning maybe "70/30" just a year ago.
60% - Settled for a generation.
55% - Resolved, but not for long.
52% - The fight is just starting.
Ordinarily I'd agree, but this is the EU we're dealing with here. They have form, as we all know.
It is like this:
50.000001+ remain : settled forever.
51+ leave : new terms offered and invited to think again, rinse, repeat.
If we vote to go, the EU will decide that they are happy to see us go and will get on with building the sort of EU they want without having the Brits moaning all the time.
That's not the German perspective, according to Herr Schauble. They love us.
Er - I thought he said that if we voted to go, we go, and there will be no particular move by the EU to accommodate us...
The bulk of the interview is him saying how much he values the British contribution to the EU, that we don't block the Eurozone's integration, also we're really dishy and are the best dancers out of all the countries. Something like that anyway.
Mr. Urquhart, if the margin of victory for Remain is less than those who registered during the 48 hour registration extension there may be a legal challenge.
More amusingly, there may be a legal challenge from Remain if they lose by a similar margin!
On the grounds that they didn't like the way they tried to fix it?
I don't think there will be any challenges. We talk about these things on here all the time, and they rarely happen. The result will be what it is. That said, I see the Austrian bloke is challenging the result of the Presidential election.
My point is that "legal challenges" serve no purpose. If the result is seen as unfair and/or unjust then theoretically Parliament can take action themselves to reflect this. They don't need to go to court to achieve this, and don't need to listen to whatever a court might say.
For all that "out means out" in this referendum, it only does so because it is expected that Parliament will abide by the outcome. Not because the referendum result is in any way legally binding. In that sense it is very different to challenging a election result.
The lawyers will have enough work to do in the event of a Brexit anyway.
Mr. Urquhart, if the margin of victory for Remain is less than those who registered during the 48 hour registration extension there may be a legal challenge.
More amusingly, there may be a legal challenge from Remain if they lose by a similar margin!
On the grounds that they didn't like the way they tried to fix it?
I don't think there will be any challenges. We talk about these things on here all the time, and they rarely happen. The result will be what it is. That said, I see the Austrian bloke is challenging the result of the Presidential election.
Well, yes. Right wing Austrians bad losers shocker...
I could see some leave challenges possible if the government had a carefully targeted campaign to register remain voters but if it was the Stronger In campaign then that is a non starter.
Mr. Urquhart, if the margin of victory for Remain is less than those who registered during the 48 hour registration extension there may be a legal challenge.
More amusingly, there may be a legal challenge from Remain if they lose by a similar margin!
If it's 51:49 either way there will be chaos. The conduct of almost everyone involved in the process has been terrible and there's lots of challenges that could reasonably be made.
By an enormous margin, the most overtly racist person I've ever met was a Sikh (this was when I lived in Beeston, Leeds). He'd handover my ciggies (disgusting habit!) while making the most scurrilous observations on the habits, mores and general fitness to live of the local Pakistani population.
So your a disgusting white fag smoker but by miles better than the Pakistanis down the road?
Brill.
The left really think you have to be white to be racist. Little do they know.
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
No. Cameron was expecting to win by 60/40 at least: thereby routing the eurosceptics, cementing his legacy in place, and making the handover to Osborne a cinch.
Cf Nabavi, the most Cameroon pb-er in history, who talked lightly of winning maybe "70/30" just a year ago.
60% - Settled for a generation.
55% - Resolved, but not for long.
52% - The fight is just starting.
Ordinarily I'd agree, but this is the EU we're dealing with here. They have form, as we all know.
It is like this:
50.000001+ remain : settled forever.
51+ leave : new terms offered and invited to think again, rinse, repeat.
If we vote to go, the EU will decide that they are happy to see us go and will get on with building the sort of EU they want without having the Brits moaning all the time.
Is the best book to come out after the vote about the referendum, going to be about what is going on in the REMAIN camp? Mandelson, Osborne, Rudd, Straw, Kinnocks, Danny Alexander, June Sarpong?
having spent a week trying to avoid tasteless fawning Muhammad Ali coverage, and having survived the best part of an earlier week avoiding the FX dramatization of OJ's trial (featuring John Travolta), ESPN begins tomorrow a 5 part documentary "OJ:Made in America."
All EU referendum all the time? I can only dream of such a wondrous prospect.
Not excited for the latest installment of top gear?
Not really - until they get rid of Evans, stop having musical chairs for the team - first Sabine then Eddie etc - the fundamental problem remains. Sabine plus Matt plus A.N. Other would do the trick. Even Lance Armstrong would be a step up from Evans.
However we are promised major changes for episode 3 - the studio segments of which apparently shoot today - following 'feedback'. We'll see.
The best thing they can do with Chris Evans is to put him into a box - like this, which is more exciting than Top Gear...
Thinking about the Cameroons abuse of 'Little Englanders' makes me wonder if their interest is in Britain rather than the British people.
The likes of Cameron and Osborne (ditto for Blair and Milibands) think of themselves as 'Masters of the Universe' and feel at home in 'world cities' and moving and shaking with similar people around the world.
But how much interest do they have and empathy towards their own core voters (EdM could barely stand to be in Doncaster for more than five minutes) throughout England or those swing voters in Nuneaton or Ilkeston or Cannock where elections are decided.
Instead if they think in global terms then people throughout the world might be deemed as deserving to live in a 'world city' and these incomers would also have the advantages of accepting lower pay and being more servile than the oiks up the M1.
All a bit rambling but I wonder if you offered the choice to our political and business 'elite' of replacing half the British people with a random sample from around the world whether they would agree.
THIS is why Remain are losing it. A black gentleman explains how he is voting to leave as low skilled immigration has impacted him. Meanwhile a trendy musician/comedian explains that we should Remain in the EU as Britain should be culturally diverse. These metro liberal arguments may go down a treat in Islington but everywhere maybe not.
Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
I certainly wouldn't call 55/45 a "painfully close" win. That is probably around the target the REMAIN leaders were hoping for at the outset of the campaign ..... after all it's been some time since they were showing consistent leads of 10% or more. 52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
No. Cameron was expecting to win by 60/40 at least: thereby routing the eurosceptics, cementing his legacy in place, and making the handover to Osborne a cinch.
Cf Nabavi, the most Cameroon pb-er in history, who talked lightly of winning maybe "70/30" just a year ago.
60% - Settled for a generation.
55% - Resolved, but not for long.
52% - The fight is just starting.
Ordinarily I'd agree, but this is the EU we're dealing with here. They have form, as we all know.
It is like this:
50.000001+ remain : settled forever.
51+ leave : new terms offered and invited to think again, rinse, repeat.
If we vote to go, the EU will decide that they are happy to see us go and will get on with building the sort of EU they want without having the Brits moaning all the time.
I only hope you're right.
He isn't. The people of Europe don't want it either.
You don't have to agree with it, but it isn't an argument that can be dismissed IMO. People take peace in Europe for granted, and some are even actively looking forward to the EU breaking up in the aftermath of a UK exit. But what do they see a continental Europe not bound together by the EU looking like?
Mr. Urquhart, if the margin of victory for Remain is less than those who registered during the 48 hour registration extension there may be a legal challenge.
More amusingly, there may be a legal challenge from Remain if they lose by a similar margin!
If it's 51:49 either way there will be chaos. The conduct of almost everyone involved in the process has been terrible and there's lots of challenges that could reasonably be made.
By an enormous margin, the most overtly racist person I've ever met was a Sikh (this was when I lived in Beeston, Leeds). He'd handover my ciggies (disgusting habit!) while making the most scurrilous observations on the habits, mores and general fitness to live of the local Pakistani population.
So your a disgusting white fag smoker but by miles better than the Pakistanis down the road?
Brill.
The left really think you have to be white to be racist. Little do they know.
I hasten to add that this was years ago. I have no vices any longer.
Is the best book to come out after the vote about the referendum, going to be about what is going on in the REMAIN camp? Mandelson, Osborne, Rudd, Straw, Kinnocks, Danny Alexander, June Sarpong?
Thinking about the Cameroons abuse of 'Little Englanders' makes me wonder if their interest is in Britain rather than the British people.
The likes of Cameron and Osborne (ditto for Blair and Milibands) think of themselves as 'Masters of the Universe' and feel at home in 'world cities' and moving and shaking with similar people around the world.
But how much interest do they have and empathy towards their own core voters (EdM could barely stand to be in Doncaster for more than five minutes) throughout England or those swing voters in Nuneaton or Ilkeston or Cannock where elections are decided.
Instead if they think in global terms then people throughout the world might be deemed as deserving to live in a 'world city' and these incomers would also have the advantages of accepting lower pay and being more servile than the oiks up the M1.
All a bit rambling but I wonder if you offered the choice to our political and business 'elite' of replacing half the British people with a random sample from around the world whether they would agree.
There are two things that the Masters of the Universe cherish:-
1. Supranational forms of government 2. Mass migration of peoples.
Perhaps they are about to learn that the masses don't cherish these things.
Comments
Yes quite
* it is actually a reason people chose to come to UK in first place.
Oh, anecdote alert.
Perhaps all bets should be about streaking naked.
The bigger the bet - the further and more public it has to be.
Money is so passé.
Obviously any win is good for me. But that doesn't mean I have to like or agree with the way the campaign has been run. One reason amongst many I suppose why I would suck at politics.
if Low turnout, Leave win
If medium turnout, Remain win
If high turnout, Leave win
The people who really care are Brexiters. But the disengaged are also Brexiters, Remain have to encourage enough turnout to nullify the former without behaving like such egregious twatbaskets that the normally disengaged turn out against them.
So he's probably got a good feel for the local voters.
A few minor anecdotes:
Politicians generally are being spoken of in unflattering terms.
Several people have heaped abuse on Osborne after his Neil interview - and the people heaping the abuse work in export manufacturing and are knowledgeable about business and financial issues.
Multiple Leave leaflets and no Remain being received and the VoteLeave leaflets look rather cleverly like standard Labour party leaflets - blocks of red and the NHS featured prominently.
Lots of comments about BHS - people are not happy about fatcats and big business generally.
The technical stuff about tariffs will just send people to sleep.
Michael Fabricant @Mike_Fabricant
Like other eurosceptics, I’ve been re-thinking about #Europe.
I am making a personal statement in @ConHome this weekend.
52/48 or closer is what I would call painfully close and this is the result I am expecting whichever side wins. It also happens to be where the betting value appears to lie imho:
Remain ........ 45% - 50% - 5.0 (Hills, BetVictor)
Remain ........ 50% - 55% - 2.75 (Various)
Backing these two bets in combination and staking 35.5% and 64.5% respectively produces a winning return of 1.77 should either prove successful, more than double the profit compared with backing REMAIN to win outright by any margin, where the best decimal odds are currently 1.36.
DYOR.
Anecdata alert: Ethnic minorities are not as for REMAIN as you think large nubers will vote Leave including my mums beatician who has a son working in Germany.
On either side.
Certainly Richard Nabavi was.
After the great triumphant renegotiation he was probably expecting 75/25.
Does the son like Germany?
1) A proper debate would have aired the real issues and would hopefully have drawn a line under the rancour.
2) Both sides have records which would make anyone queasy about being on the same side as them.
(Good evening, everyone)
Leave holds provincial and shire England and the grip is tightening there. In addition it is taking close to 50% of the vote in Labour heartlands (including Wales). The BBC interviews in the valleys this week have been extraordinary.
Remain have to secure massive turn out levels in London and Scotland (and in the odds and sods i.e Gib and nationalist Ulster) to have a hope. I have been canvassing and delivering (Bedfordshire) and the OUTlot are absolutely fired up. Has anyone detected any enthusiasm for IN anywhere?
Thank god for Cameron's arrogance in deciding that he would lead the IN campaign (the Alan Yentob of British politics?).
He is doing a fantastic job at alienating the Labour vote who might once have been relied upon for IN. My guess is the desire to slap Cameron and Osborne hard (and boot 'em out of Downing St) will play powerfully for Leave on the 23rd.
55% - Resolved, but not for long.
52% - The fight is just starting.
Bit off-kilter as it's Canada so everything's later. Pre-qualifying should be up tomorrow but the pre-race piece could be Saturday or Sunday.
It is like this:
50.000001+ remain : settled forever.
51+ leave : new terms offered and invited to think again, rinse, repeat.
having spent a week trying to avoid tasteless fawning Muhammad Ali coverage, and having survived the best part of an earlier week avoiding the FX dramatization of OJ's trial (featuring John Travolta), ESPN begins tomorrow a 5 part documentary "OJ:Made in America."
All EU referendum all the time? I can only dream of such a wondrous prospect.
I do like the Canadian circuit.
I thought Remain would scrape home. Instead, a head of steam has built up behind Leave.
Thoughts also from the Sky commentators that the qualifying strategy tried by Ricciardo in Monaco might also work here - the ultra-soft tyres are a little quicker around a very quick lap, but the super-softs are going to be better for the first stint of the race with a heavy car.
But there are also some very quiet ones voting Remain, so all very hard to tell.
55:45 either way would settle it from the point of view of a legal challenge, but won't stop the fighting - a losing Leave side will be energised by the EU taking a narrow remain as cue for the full fat USoE, a losing Remain side will be desparate to ensure the leaving is done in the most minimal technical way possible using all available tactics in Parliament.
Mr. Alex, I didn't say it was a good idea, just that it may happen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKUOB8MN4Kc
http://tinyurl.com/jo6bquf
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/spiegel-interview-with-wolfgang-schaeuble-on-brexit-a-1096999.html#ref=rss
It's quite interesting.
I rather expect a deal could be done.
It seems to me that our UK politics has followed along in the same direction that EU politics is so proud of: the elite telling the little people what's good for them (which, surprise surprise, turns out to be what's good for the masters instead).
Quite apart from my decision that the UK would be doing well to leave the EU, I would love to see all the little people ganging up on the elite and giving them a kick where it hurts.
If they do, I only hope they will respond just as vigorously to a Try Again referendum.
Anyway, I'm off for the night.
For all that "out means out" in this referendum, it only does so because it is expected that Parliament will abide by the outcome. Not because the referendum result is in any way legally binding. In that sense it is very different to challenging a election result.
The lawyers will have enough work to do in the event of a Brexit anyway.
I could see some leave challenges possible if the government had a carefully targeted campaign to register remain voters but if it was the Stronger In campaign then that is a non starter.
But apart from that I can't see a challenge.
Brill.
The left really think you have to be white to be racist. Little do they know.
50-50 sounds about right though, so why are Leave only a 28% chance on Betfair? Value is all one way.
However we are promised major changes for episode 3 - the studio segments of which apparently shoot today - following 'feedback'. We'll see.
The best thing they can do with Chris Evans is to put him into a box - like this, which is more exciting than Top Gear...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbbkDiuz9fw
The likes of Cameron and Osborne (ditto for Blair and Milibands) think of themselves as 'Masters of the Universe' and feel at home in 'world cities' and moving and shaking with similar people around the world.
But how much interest do they have and empathy towards their own core voters (EdM could barely stand to be in Doncaster for more than five minutes) throughout England or those swing voters in Nuneaton or Ilkeston or Cannock where elections are decided.
Instead if they think in global terms then people throughout the world might be deemed as deserving to live in a 'world city' and these incomers would also have the advantages of accepting lower pay and being more servile than the oiks up the M1.
All a bit rambling but I wonder if you offered the choice to our political and business 'elite' of replacing half the British people with a random sample from around the world whether they would agree.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gHLfMXb0Yg
England fans in Marseille singing "fuck off Europe we're all voting out"
You don't have to agree with it, but it isn't an argument that can be dismissed IMO. People take peace in Europe for granted, and some are even actively looking forward to the EU breaking up in the aftermath of a UK exit. But what do they see a continental Europe not bound together by the EU looking like?
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/eu-having-a-laugh
"You can't live without us, you all voted no."
1. Supranational forms of government
2. Mass migration of peoples.
Perhaps they are about to learn that the masses don't cherish these things.
I miss the like button