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imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : June 9th 2016 (Referendum Day -14 days and counting)

Basildon, Laindon Park and Fryerns (Lab defence) on Essex
Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 42, Labour 9, Liberal Democrats 9, United Kingdom Independence Party 9, Greens 2, Canvey Island Independent 1, Independent 1, Ratepayers 1, Tendring First 1 (Conservative majority of 9)
Result of ward at last election (2013) :

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Comments

  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    edited June 2016
    Primo?

    Thanks Harry for keeping up with these, it's a great record.

    Quote of the day "The Lib Dems have a London disaster area" ;)
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited June 2016
    Rasmussen General Election national
    Clinton 42 Trump 38
    http://www.rasmussenrepPenorts.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

    Pennsylvania PPP
    Clinton 44 Trump 44

    4-way Clinton 41 Trump 40 Johnson 6 Stein 3

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PA_60816.pdf
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Basildon: UKIP gain
    Lincs: Labour hold
    Gipsy Hill: Labour hold
    Surrey Docks: LibDem hold
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Sandpit said:

    Primo?

    Thanks Harry for keeping up with these, it's a great record.

    Quote of the day "The Lib Dems have a London disaster area" ;)

    It is also where the bulk of their members are.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    edited June 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Rasmussen General Election national
    Clinton 42 Trump 38
    http://www.rasmussenrepPenorts.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

    Pennsylvania PPP
    Clinton 44 Trump 44

    4-way Clinton 41 Trump 40 Johnson 6 Stein 3

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PA_60816.pdf

    Those polls don't reflect the odds available for Clinton and Trump.
    4.4 on Betfair for the Donald, good for a trading bet even if you don't think it's value in itself.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Martin Armstrong interview right now, where he will say why a Brexit is so vital:

    http://www.richieallen.co.uk/
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    Smoking:

    Children's act 1908

    http://www.ash.org.uk/files/documents/ASH_741.pdf
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    All these politicians jumping to different sides feels like a really crap game of Top Trumps.
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Sandpit said:

    Primo?

    Thanks Harry for keeping up with these, it's a great record.

    Quote of the day "The Lib Dems have a London disaster area" ;)

    Yes, I hear it's called London.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    I was YouGov'd over Julia Etchingham's performance on the other debate - I wasn't very impressed. Let's see if she's better after all the feedback.
  • YossariansChild
    YossariansChild Posts: 536
    FPT

    @HYUFD

    *cough* Boris was in the NW last week:

    http://www.lep.co.uk/your-lancashire/preston/latest-boris-johnson-calls-for-preston-to-join-the-leave-campaign-1-7942383

    http://www.itv.com/news/granada/update/2016-06-01/interview-boris-johnson-takes-his-brexit-bus-to-lancashire/

    Anyway debate! Bring it home Boris...
  • YossariansChild
    YossariansChild Posts: 536
    https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/740983139766554624
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Casino - You need to repost your 7:26pm post on the previous thread .... too few will have seen it.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    Introducing Nearby: A new way to discover the things around you

    The idea is simple: You're on the go and there is an app that might be useful to you but you don't know it exists. Nearby will let you know about such apps.

    https://android.googleblog.com/2016/06/introducing-nearby-new-way-to-discover.html

    Within 50 feet of a politician, will it advice you about apps such bullshit detector 2016?
  • Brom
    Brom Posts: 3,760
    Amber Rudd is a bad choice with her stifled delivery and lispy voice. Soubry though grating knows how to get a rise out of Boris and would have been a better choice.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    edited June 2016
    YossariansChild said:

    https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/740983139766554624

    Like Izzard, I remember he used to be funny...talking of which if you suffer from any health problems, I highly recommend you AVOID BBC One at 10.30pm this evening...A QT line up so bad, I would rather watch US Top Gear.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Amber Rudd quite strong there - the I'm A Mother card.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Yeah, Nicola starts by acknowledging how her position looks stupid.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    PlatoSaid said:

    Amber Rudd quite strong there - the I'm A Mother card.

    Yes she was and very fair from you Plato
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Brom said:

    Amber Rudd is a bad choice with her stifled delivery and lispy voice. Soubry though grating knows how to get a rise out of Boris and would have been a better choice.

    Given her TV background, Soubry does get a bit rude too often.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    YossariansChild said:

    FPT

    @HYUFD

    *cough* Boris was in the NW last week:

    http://www.lep.co.uk/your-lancashire/preston/latest-boris-johnson-calls-for-preston-to-join-the-leave-campaign-1-7942383

    http://www.itv.com/news/granada/update/2016-06-01/interview-boris-johnson-takes-his-brexit-bus-to-lancashire/

    Anyway debate! Bring it home Boris...

    There is certainly more of a case for saying the NW is a swing region in EU ref than the SW which is why Boris was there and Osborne has been to Greater Manchester many times too
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Adios amigos, time differences mean I'll catch up on the debate in the morning. Have fun!
  • pinkrose
    pinkrose Posts: 189
    edited June 2016
    I think it might be better for Leave if a few polls come out that have Remain ahead. This is just anecdotal but quite a few people have said they want/think Remain will win but they are voting Leave because they dont want a big Remain win, they want it to be close. It also may explain pollsters recording big majorities predicting a Remain win but polls on voting intentions are closing.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Angela Eagle isn't going to be Labour leader.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    Casino_Royale said:

    Angela Eagle isn't going to be Labour leader.

    I always get confused, which one is she, the crap sister or the really crap sister?
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Twitter is even more pointless for following the debate... cheerleaders lamely cheering their team... yawn.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Interesting angle from Leave - EU is old fashioned.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    PlatoSaid said:

    Interesting angle from Leave - EU is old fashioned.

    Steve Hilton copyrighted....
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    PlatoSaid said:

    Interesting angle from Leave - EU is old fashioned.

    It is. Free nation trading blocks and bi lateral trading deals are the future not arcane political organisations.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    peter_from_putney said:

    Casino - You need to repost your 7:26pm post on the previous thread .... too few will have seen it.

    Can't on an iPhone!
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Casino_Royale said:

    Angela Eagle isn't going to be Labour leader.

    She's missing her HoC energy. Quiet feeble - I'm surprised.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    PlatoSaid said:

    Interesting angle from Leave - EU is old fashioned.

    It is spot on.

    It's a last century answer.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    SeanT said:

    Gisela and Angela surprisingly bad

    Andrea and Amber surprisingly good

    Sturgeon and Boris.. hmm....

    Agreed
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    So far this is Amber versus Andrea.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    Jezza looks so happy to be there...

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3633852/Labour-leadership-duo-Tom-Jerry-road-amid-backlash-half-hearted-EU-referendum-campaign.html
  • YossariansChild
    YossariansChild Posts: 536
    Angela Eagle looks like a Geography teacher and Amber Rudd the Head of a school explaining why their GCSE results are so bad.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    This feels very stilted.
  • Brom
    Brom Posts: 3,760
    Andrea is good and believable, think she might bring more to the table than Gisela or Boris.
    I switch off when Nicola speaks, her aggressive approach is unsettling.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Gipsy Hill?
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Gisela relies on notes too much. Otherwise she's ok, but she has to look at the camera.
  • GideonWise
    GideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Sturgeon is utterly repellent.
  • Hertsmere_Pubgoer
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Sandpit said:

    Adios amigos, time differences mean I'll catch up on the debate in the morning. Have fun!

    Buenos noches.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Nice one from Gisela about the terms under which she entered the UK.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    kle4 said:

    Gipsy Hill?

    I just accidentally hit the "off topic" button on your post - apologies.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    GideonWise said:

    Sturgeon is utterly repellent.

    Although British voters now trust her more on the EU than Cameron (according to YouGov).
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    chestnut said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Interesting angle from Leave - EU is old fashioned.

    It is spot on.

    It's a last century answer.
    Perhaps thats how Leave can win over the yuff...The EU is like twitter....embrace leave, its like SnapChat....
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    Leave murdering Remain on immigration, which is to be expected.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    SeanT said:

    Sturgeon is a bad choice because everything she says is ridiculous, given her Scot Nationalism

    I agree - she's a good performer with the sound off.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Gisela and Boris both emphasising they are immigrants or have immigrant roots.

    Fighting back against attempts to smear with Farage labels.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    SeanT said:

    Boris better now. Eloquent.

    Yes, Rudd's cheap Number 10 shot leaves her fair game for some Blue on Blue attacks.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sturgeon wilfully misleading as usual - Gisele putting them straight.
  • YossariansChild
    YossariansChild Posts: 536
    Gisella just nailed that.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    SeanT said:

    Boris better now. Eloquent.

    Agreed. Always a slow starter.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    hunchman said:

    Martin Armstrong interview right now, where he will say why a Brexit is so vital:

    http://www.richieallen.co.uk/

    Wait: I thought it was irrelevant because the EU will collapse in the next four years anyway.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Golly Eagles has gone all party political - bad move.
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    FPT at the request of PTP from @CasinoRoyale
    John_M said:
    » show previous quotes
    Well, given that the front page of the report acknowledged that it was funded by the ESRC through the 'UK in a changing Europe', it's at least a point.

    I think we'll have to disagree; it doesn't quantify the risks in any meaningful way, lay reader or not. It just asserts there are risks.

    I don't have a particular issue with the IFS report per se. My concern is that modelling has an inglorious record (to save others trawling through the report, the forecasts for Britains GDP in 2030 range from -9.5% to +0.6% compared to noBrexit, ie the opportunity cost ranges from ~.75% p.a. to very slightly positive). If financial models were better, I'd have more confidence in them.
    The intro tickled me where he basically says we all got the 2008 crash wrong, but we all agree now, so listen to us this time.

    Paul Johnson has spent his whole career in the civil service, think-tanks, or academia, including several big papers during the New Labour years.

    I'm not saying he's been bought, or paid for, but that does breed a certain kind of thinking. And the IFS, in particular, has a real hold over Government, despite reaching questionable conclusions in the past. For example, it has came out basically saying marriage doesn't matter a few years ago.

    The Spectator was right in 2011:

    "There is no great conspiracy here, but a simple truth: organisations which rely on tax money will always make the case for higher taxes. The ‘institutes’ funded by research grants
    (which means, usually, tax money) will always argue for more expensive meddling by the state. These groups dislike the idea that society will be better and stronger if people are given greater freedom, and allowed to keep more of their money. Freedom, to the institutes, is messy and chaotic. There must be projects, judged by complicated spreadsheets, with billions in taxpayers’ money behind them.

    The most striking example is the Institute for Fiscal Studies. It has tremendous influence over government life, and in the era where Gordon Brown was concealing basic facts from the people whose money he was spending, it was relied upon to give a clearer picture. But the sheer volume and quality of its reports gave it power over the government that is not, even now, understood. Its device for measuring poverty — to calculate how many millions were above and below a ‘poverty line’ — took over the entire debate. Instead of tackling poverty, Brown tried to manipulate the IFS spreadsheets, so those just beneath the poverty line could be nudged above it and described as being ‘lifted out of poverty’. Those affected would be amazed to find themselves so described."

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2011/07/leading-article-the-power-of-ideas/
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Casino_Royale said:

    Gisela relies on notes too much. Otherwise she's ok, but she has to look at the camera.

    I think it's just a matter of experience
  • Brom
    Brom Posts: 3,760
    YossariansChild said:

    Gisella just nailed that.

    it was the correct answer to a silly point. Obviously the underlying issue is the Australians can decide their immigration level, so if they want it high that is their choice.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Leadsome impressive. Remain just can't answer on controlling immigration.
  • handandmouse
    handandmouse Posts: 213
    The Australia argument is such a weak one for anyone not completely ignorant of geography - not surprised it was skewered
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Wow - Rudd is in the same party as me.

    Hastening my exit at the moment...
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    As mentioned earlier today , the Basildon CC seat is composed of 3 DC wards . Labour won 2 last month , UKIP won 1 . Labour had a lead of 146 votes overall .
  • GideonWise
    GideonWise Posts: 1,123
    No one can be convinced by Sturgeon can they?
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Boris needs to reemphasise the renegotiation point - "I genuinely thought we could get something meaningful, we didn't".
  • geoffw
    geoffw Posts: 9,161
    Andrea and Gisela more sympathetic.
    Angela, Amber and Nicola too hectoring.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Nicola trying too hard and talking too quickly.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    I find this nonsense of 'saving' MPs to come out for either Remain or Leave in the final 14 days up to the vote deeply distateful. Its effectively saying 'let's compete to see who can get the better celebs / opinion formers to come out for either side, and you the electorate will make your mind off the back of that'. Well sorry, I critically evaluate the facts and arguments and historical evidence. I don't need celebrities to act as opinion formers for me, I'll do that off my own back thank you.

    Farage's Cologne comments, the risible £350m NHS claim and now the MP's joining at the 'last minute' have really annoyed me on the leave side, even though obviously I'm passionately for the leave campaign. Obviously the ridiculous economic scaremongering, altering the deadline for voter registration, and fear campaign that the remain campaign have run as well as demonising Farage and the risible 'little Englander' mentality haven't surprised me in the least. But this is a campaign which has plumbed the depths in British political history in my lifetime as far as I'm concerned.

    I remember thinking that when 24 hour news came in over 20 years ago now with Sky News that it would give time for serious evaluation and examination of arguments and debates. Its funny how my initial view proved to be 180 degrees wrong, and just how dumbed down the mainstream media has become. But for me personally, that's a wider reflection on where we stand in the time honoured 309.6 year cycle that appears to govern the rise and fall of civilizations and countries. If we view the founding of the UK as the Act of Union between England and Scotland on 1st May 1707, then the end of that cycle falls due on 5th / 6th December this year. I think that something interesting is going to happen around then. In my dreams that will be the date when that notorious address on Finchley Road finally comes out into the mainstream..........allow me to dream for once!
  • YossariansChild
    YossariansChild Posts: 536
    Format helping Boris. Remain trying to attack him but Gisella and Andrea blunt those attacks.

    Also Remain acting like this is a GE attacking the Tories first Leave second.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Amber keeps using the "levelling with the British people" line..
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    YossariansChild said:

    Format helping Boris. Remain trying to attack him but Gisella and Andrea blunt those attacks.

    Also Remain acting like this is a GE attacking the Tories first Leave second.

    The Remainers aren't acknowledging each other. Boris backing up Andrea and conferring with Gisela - it looks like they are a team.
  • Hertsmere_Pubgoer
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    alex. said:

    Smoking:

    Children's act 1908

    http://www.ash.org.uk/files/documents/ASH_741.pdf

    Many thanks for the link.
    Someone was arguing in the pub this evening that in the 60's the legal limit was 13.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Mortimer said:

    Wow - Rudd is in the same party as me.

    Hastening my exit at the moment...

    Mortimer said:

    Wow - Rudd is in the same party as me.

    Hastening my exit at the moment...

    I'd love it if I was in Hastings and could meet Rudd as my MP and completely take her apart over global warming, ahem climate change.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,089
    Can anyone help me. Are the monies that the EU makes from the common external tariff included when calculating members' financial contributions? IE - 'the money we pay to the EU'?
  • GideonWise
    GideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Amber Rudd going personal on Boris has riled me right up.
  • YossariansChild
    YossariansChild Posts: 536
    tlg86 said:

    YossariansChild said:

    Format helping Boris. Remain trying to attack him but Gisella and Andrea blunt those attacks.

    Also Remain acting like this is a GE attacking the Tories first Leave second.

    The Remainers aren't acknowledging each other. Boris backing up Andrea and conferring with Gisela - it looks like they are a team.
    Yes. Its SNP / Labour / Tory Vs Leave.

    Its like Remain havent shown up.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Leadsom should be party leader.

    Tremendous performance.

    I bet Cameron is QUAKING!
  • handandmouse
    handandmouse Posts: 213
    LEAVE very well-drilled on "take back control", seems to show up in every other response.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    tlg86 said:

    YossariansChild said:

    Format helping Boris. Remain trying to attack him but Gisella and Andrea blunt those attacks.

    Also Remain acting like this is a GE attacking the Tories first Leave second.

    The Remainers aren't acknowledging each other. Boris backing up Andrea and conferring with Gisela - it looks like they are a team.
    I'm finding the tone from Remain quite shouty - Leave sound a lot more measured.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    rcs1000 said:

    hunchman said:

    Martin Armstrong interview right now, where he will say why a Brexit is so vital:

    http://www.richieallen.co.uk/

    Wait: I thought it was irrelevant because the EU will collapse in the next four years anyway.
    That's my personal view, which I admit is at odds with what Armstrong thinks.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    YossariansChild said:

    Format helping Boris. Remain trying to attack him but Gisella and Andrea blunt those attacks.

    Also Remain acting like this is a GE attacking the Tories first Leave second.

    Vote Leave are working as a team here. The Remain side are not.

    That's a big advantage.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Boris trying to link wages to immigration.

    Interesting.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Armstrong: "GDP growth peaked in 1973 at which point we joined the EU and has been declining ever since."

    Absolutely, and we'd do better shot of the EU. But you won't hear that in the debate going on now.
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    I'm loving the fact that Eagle and Sturgeon taking the opportunity to hammer the Tories at the same time as Leave.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,089
    handandmouse said:

    LEAVE very well-drilled on "take back control", seems to show up in every other response.

    Shame it's not a very effective theme.
  • geoffw
    geoffw Posts: 9,161
    Nicola and Angela made the mistake of going ad hom.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I have to admit, I do wonder if the meme that the £350m line is a "lie" might really damage the Leave Campaign (sticking to the real figure of £200m or whatever it is would've been damaging enough).
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Eagle got a good hit in: "get that lie off your bus"
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Armstrong: "You objected to 72 EU measure and you lost on absolutely everyone of them"

    Quite!
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Andrea Leadsom giving very good answer on the £350m figure.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    Casino_Royale said:

    Eagle got a good hit in: "get that lie off your bus"

    First applause from the audience
  • Razedabode
    Razedabode Posts: 3,117
    Leadsom explaining that 350 million figure nicely
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Very good from Leadsom on paypacket analogy.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Amber Rudd for next Tory leader!
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Andrea is the good cop to Boris's bad cop on the £350m figure.
  • Brom
    Brom Posts: 3,760
    remain women trying to gang up on Boris is clearly a tactic, much like last year with Wood, Sturgeon and Bennett attacking Farage. Luckilly he has Andrea to help blunt the attacks
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Eagle got a good hit in: "get that lie off your bus"

    First applause from the audience
    Ah, I post something 'positive' for Remain, and up you pop.
  • handandmouse
    handandmouse Posts: 213
    edited June 2016
    Not sure REMAIN are doing themselves any favours repeating £350m/week again and again, even if it's to argue the toss about where it goes and how much of it we get back.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    Danny565 said:

    I have to admit, I do wonder if the meme that the £350m line is a "lie" might really damage the Leave Campaign (sticking to the real figure of £200m or whatever it is would've been damaging enough).

    Either number sounds a lot to most people. Just like when they say cuts of $1bn or £1.5bn, one is 50% more, both in the grand scheme of GDP nothing, but they sound enormous to the average voter.
  • YossariansChild
    YossariansChild Posts: 536
    Leave 1 - 0 after first question.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Casino_Royale said:

    Andrea Leadsom giving very good answer on the £350m figure.

    Yep, it's about control, not so much the cost itself.
This discussion has been closed.

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