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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : June 9th 2016 (Referendum Day -

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  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Trouble is that Remain have come here prepared to fight Farage and Boris's career ambitions.

    They're actually fighting a coherent Vote Leave team on the arguments.

    Two of the three Remainers seem intent on fighting Tory austerity rather than a referendum.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    Freggles said:

    Why are they only applauding personal attacks? I thought the public didn't like Punch and Judy stuff?

    One of the myths of politics. Along with people appreciating compromise from their political leaders, appreciating leaders changing their minds after listening to the public, that we vote for candidates not party labels, by and large, etc etc
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    Oh dear. Amber Rudd: "I urge people to look to the experts."
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    Boris has had a lot of bad press the last few months, but his "I agree with Gisela/Andrea" is simple and effective. We aint gonna here those lines from the Remainers.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,809
    Outers come over as a team.
    Boris really quite impressive as a team player.
  • geoffw said:

    Some have mentioned Amber Rudd as successor to Cameron.
    Can't see it myself.
    Andrea Leadsom however ...

    Yes!
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    MP_SE said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Very surprised by Remain - they sound rattled and rude.

    There is clearly something weird going on with those in the Remain camp. It could just be they expected to be 10-15% ahead by now and it is actually really tight. Or maybe private polling showing something else.
    My best guess is that they underestimated how skeptical the electorate are now. I don't just mean with respect to the EU, it's everything.

    People do not trust traditional power structures, they don't react as expected when the great and good make their appeals based on authority. It's not a UK-only phenomenon of course.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    Wonder who pointed that out at the start of this thread..

    *buffs nails*
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,928

    I see Louise Mensch has apologised for smearing Dr Wollaston

    I think Louise thinks the attack dog approach is always best. It isn't.
    When you've abandoned your political career that's the only way you can claim any relevance. I have sympathy for her because she did have some talent.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    edited June 2016
    What sort of ADD brain addled cretin designed this format? It specifically rules out a considered and explained point.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,170
    tlg86 said:

    Boris has had a lot of bad press the last few months, but his "I agree with Gisela/Andrea" is simple and effective. We aint gonna here those lines from the Remainers.

    and "I agree with Nicola" :D!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Eagles looked like she's about to explode.

    Another personal attack on Boris by Sturgeon. Does she want to move into Number 10?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,809
    Nicola cannot help herself going on about "Toories".
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Boris is playing this very well. Going personal on him will not go down well with the public.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    Rudd with her arms folded is a very bad look.
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    The Leavers are smashing this. They've gelled well. Better arguments, better jokes, great teamwork. Wouldn't like to be in the Remain dressing room after this one. Dave will be kicking the sandwiches around.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261

    Remain are not having a good debate so far.

    I don't know exactly why it is, but I and virtually everyone I've spoken to (admittedly virtually 100% English) has a problem with Nicola Sturgeon. I suspect she's a liability to the REMAIN cause on a programme such as this.
    Yes, question is whether she puts off Scottish unionists or not.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    On tonight's performance, my nominations for next PM are:

    1) Leadsom
    2) Julie Eltchingham
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,170
    Stuart great at just talking over the rabble...
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    the first good answer Nicola has given there. The UK government is largely in control of the NHS already.
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    Very impressed by Gisela Stuart. Sturgeon and Eagle dire, seem to think it's an election campaign.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    I see Louise Mensch has apologised for smearing Dr Wollaston

    I think Louise thinks the attack dog approach is always best. It isn't.
    When you've abandoned your political career that's the only way you can claim any relevance. I have sympathy for her because she did have some talent.
    Well yes, but attacking someone for disagreeing with you isn't the best way to win the argument.
  • Leave talking to the voters. Remain talking to their supporters.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Oh dear. Amber Rudd: "I urge people to look to the experts."

    Yes Amber, look to Martin Armstrong! He's worth 1 billion to each of your 'experts'!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    Good moderation too. Just the right balance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    maaarsh said:

    What sort of ADD brain addled cretin designed this format? It specifically rules out a considered and explained point.

    Definitely designed to appeal to the public then.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    To be fair to Amber Rudd, she's trying to focus on Remain and ignore the party political attacks from her "allies".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited June 2016
    Blueberry said:

    The Leavers are smashing this. They've gelled well. Better arguments, better jokes, great teamwork. Wouldn't like to be in the Remain dressing room after this one. Dave will be kicking the sandwiches around.

    Dave hitting the fags?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,170

    Blueberry said:

    The Leavers are smashing this. They've gelled well. Better arguments, better jokes, great teamwork. Wouldn't like to be in the Remain dressing room after this one. Dave will be kicking the sandwiches around.

    Dave hitting the fags?
    Na, they band corporal punishment a while ago :D
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Boris good with a specific example cutting through the rhetoric
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312

    To be fair to Amber Rudd, she's trying to focus on Remain and ignore the party political attacks from her "allies".

    But she still couldn't resist a dig at Boris at the beginning.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    In debates my experience is that we do rather tend to prefer those we agree with.

    Television-less I am probably talking through my hat.

    In any case doubt that anything from this debate would prompt me to take down my "Remain" sign, or any of a couple of dozen friends bar one to vote otherwise.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Blueberry said:

    The Leavers are smashing this. They've gelled well. Better arguments, better jokes, great teamwork. Wouldn't like to be in the Remain dressing room after this one. Dave will be kicking the sandwiches around.

    Dave hitting the fags?
    Hitting the panic button at being outed over corruption!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    First mention of Wollaston.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    Boris rising above "personal stuff".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,170
    One for the bingo cards :)
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,045
    Eagle just throwing insults around. Not a good look.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,809
    Sturgeon: "We don't get money back by not being in the EU"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,170
    More conferring on the Leave team.. the bloody cheats...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    Great point from Gisela - a Labour MP - we have to be able to plan to make the NHS viable.
  • Gisella just owned the NHS argument.
  • RobD said:

    More conferring on the Leave team.. the bloody cheats...

    Bastards using logic and facts!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,150
    I agree that leave are winning this at present
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,170
    edited June 2016

    RobD said:

    More conferring on the Leave team.. the bloody cheats...

    Bastards using logic and facts!
    It's super effective.... /nerdmode :D
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,936
    edited June 2016
    hunchman said:

    Armstrong: "Overlooked part of Syria conflict is Genie Oil and all the oil found underneath the Golan Heights with Larry Summers and Dick Cheney on the board amongst others"

    http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/03/pressure-building-golan-heights/

    Hmmm: they are not on the board of Genie Oil & Gas, they are 'strategic advisory board' members.

    Genie Energy owns Genie Oil & Gas, which has a very modest ($8m of well costs in the first quarter) exploration programme in Northern Israel (aka the Golan Heights). They also have a Colorado Oil shale programme.

    I know Noble Energy very well (which has the massive Leviathan gas field off-shore Israel), and have been an investor in another Israeli oil & gas company. (Via the always excellent Martin Molyneaux at First Energy.)

    The Golan Heights and the rest of Northern Israel has seen lots of cores drilled over the years, and there's been a lot of seismic shot. While there is evidence of natural gas, I am told that the geology (it's been extremely well cooked) mean it's very unlikely there are commercial quantities of oil in the area. Tight natural gas formations are not something there is any particular shortage of at the moment.

    Genie Energy has a market capitalisation of $178m. If you really believe that uncommercial quantities of natural gas (that will be competing with cheap CH4 molecules from the Leviathan field) are a goer, you are welcome to waste your money.
  • geoffw said:

    Sturgeon: "We don't get money back by not being in the EU"

    Eh?????
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Turning into a rout here for Leave.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Leave talking to the voters. Remain talking to their supporters.

    I'm cautious to write it down, but feeling more and more to me that Remain know this has slipped away and are trying to minimise the scale of the loss on the 23rd...
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Just about to watch something good and interesting.. Peaky Blinders. I will be back...
  • Eagle just throwing insults around. Not a good look.

    Her hair looks greasy ..... not good.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    I agree that leave are winning this at present

    Care to retract your allegation of me being naive regarding Wollaston/£350m dominating tonights debate?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Gisela very good on NHS. Leadsom great on nonsense numbers.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Gisela and her 'German' English voice helps to give her greater credibility in this whole debate. Leadsom very authorative and impressive - how my estimation of her has grown over the past few weeks.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    Ha Ha! Not a good move by Rudd to bring up bridge building!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,170
    Mortimer said:

    Leave talking to the voters. Remain talking to their supporters.

    I'm cautious to write it down, but feeling more and more to me that Remain know this has slipped away and are trying to minimise the scale of the loss on the 23rd...
    Hm, that doesn't make sense. It's a binary outcome, so they should be going all out for a win, rather than trying to minimise anything.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,936

    Just about to watch something good and interesting.. Peaky Blinders. I will be back...

    Much more fun than yet another EU debate :lol:
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,809

    geoffw said:

    Sturgeon: "We don't get money back by not being in the EU"

    Eh?????
    Yeah!!!!!!
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited June 2016
    Mortimer said:

    Leave talking to the voters. Remain talking to their supporters.

    I'm cautious to write it down, but feeling more and more to me that Remain know this has slipped away and are trying to minimise the scale of the loss on the 23rd...
    I hate to kill the buzz, but remain will win. However, it's going to have dire aftershocks in the Tory party at the very least.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    Gisela is brilliant, far too good for Labour.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Great point Gisela over our car industry doing well because our cars our good. Common sense that the voters can easily relate to.
  • Mortimer said:

    Leave talking to the voters. Remain talking to their supporters.

    I'm cautious to write it down, but feeling more and more to me that Remain know this has slipped away and are trying to minimise the scale of the loss on the 23rd...
    We need more polling. It's gone very quiet.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    Experts experts experts experts

    Rudd.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,170
    That was a great first half!
  • DeafblokeDeafbloke Posts: 70
    Angry Rudd is going to explode if we don't start listening to 'experts'
  • Leave 3 - 0 Remain.

    Note the difference at the end - 3 Leave support each other Remain ignore each other.

    Has Cameron chucked his mobile yet?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    What's Eagles doing? This isn't a GE, I can understand Sturgeon bashing Tories as she's got another agenda - but it's still daft.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    rcs1000 said:

    hunchman said:

    Armstrong: "Overlooked part of Syria conflict is Genie Oil and all the oil found underneath the Golan Heights with Larry Summers and Dick Cheney on the board amongst others"

    http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/03/pressure-building-golan-heights/

    Hmmm: they are not on the board of Genie Oil & Gas, they are 'strategic advisory board' members.

    Genie Energy owns Genie Oil & Gas, which has a very modest ($8m of well costs in the first quarter) exploration programme in Northern Israel (aka the Golan Heights). They also have a Colorado Oil shale programme.

    I know Noble Energy very well (which has the massive Leviathan gas field off-shore Israel), and have been an investor in another Israeli oil & gas company. (Via the always excellent Martin Molyneaux at First Energy.)

    The Golan Heights and the rest of Northern Israel has seen lots of cores drilled over the years, and there's been a lot of seismic shot. While there is evidence of natural gas, I am told that the geology (it's been extremely well cooked) mean it's very unlikely there are commercial quantities of oil in the area. Tight natural gas formations are not something there is any particular shortage of at the moment.

    Genie Energy has a market capitalisation of $178m. If you really believe that uncommercial quantities of natural gas (that will be competing with cheap CH4 molecules from the Leviathan field) are a goer, you are welcome to waste your money.
    Thanks rcs1000. I bow to your greater knowledge over this - I've been meaning to look into this and haven't had time thanks to being so tied up with that notorious address. I mean to have a look at it when I get chance.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    See how much better it is once you remove Cameron from the equation :lol::trollface:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The only interesting thing so far

    Buy Amber

    Sell Boris
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    tlg86 said:

    Gisela is brilliant, far too good for Labour.

    Her intervention on 'this isn't about the government, it's a decision for the next 40yr over our country'
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    Roland's bridge building experts are yet to build one still standing, but they're the best we have and we should listen
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Amber Rudd is a bit scary, without her it would be 5-0 leave. Eagles is just so horribly party political and Sturgeon can't hide her contempt for the UK.
  • tlg86 said:

    Gisela is brilliant, far too good for Labour.

    She's playing the wise old mum routine superbly.

    Clearly a plan to get her to sum up.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Deafbloke said:

    Angry Rudd is going to explode if we don't start listening to 'experts'

    She relys on 'experts' for her view on climate change. I've never known such a misuse of the word 'expert'!
  • I agree that leave are winning this at present

    Appreciate your honesty, I do not have work to do so not watching it all.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Somewhere Peter Mandelson is being restrained, shouting his desire to beat Angela Eagle with a set of jumper cables.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    You may want to have a peak at the Guardian blog...

    "Question 2 (Economy) - Snap verdict: The Remain team easily had the best on this topic. Eagle (who as shadow business secretary does this for her day job), Sturgeon and Rudd were all forceful and convincing, and Rudd deal with the “these experts backed the euro” claim effectively. Eagle’s jibe about Johnson’s ambitions was more successful than the one Rudd tried earlier, because in this context it seemed appropriate. The Leave participants quoted more figures, but their arguments about trade seemed arcane. Remain were fired up, but their passion sounded justified."
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I think Leave 2 (immigration, economy) Remain 1 (NHS) so far
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,170
    For all the Stuart fans (I'm one too).. her upward trajectory may be difficult, especially given the membership:

    *Voted for introducing student top-up fees
    *Voted for Labour's anti-terrorism laws
    *Voted for the Iraq war
    *Voted against investigating the Iraq war
    *Voted for replacing Trident
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    tlg86 said:

    Gisela is brilliant, far too good for Labour.

    She's playing the wise old mum routine superbly.

    Clearly a plan to get her to sum up.
    Nice pen pix.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,936
    edited June 2016
    hunchman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    hunchman said:

    Armstrong: "Overlooked part of Syria conflict is Genie Oil and all the oil found underneath the Golan Heights with Larry Summers and Dick Cheney on the board amongst others"

    http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/03/pressure-building-golan-heights/

    Hmmm: they are not on the board of Genie Oil & Gas, they are 'strategic advisory board' members.

    Genie Energy owns Genie Oil & Gas, which has a very modest ($8m of well costs in the first quarter) exploration programme in Northern Israel (aka the Golan Heights). They also have a Colorado Oil shale programme.

    I know Noble Energy very well (which has the massive Leviathan gas field off-shore Israel), and have been an investor in another Israeli oil & gas company. (Via the always excellent Martin Molyneaux at First Energy.)

    The Golan Heights and the rest of Northern Israel has seen lots of cores drilled over the years, and there's been a lot of seismic shot. While there is evidence of natural gas, I am told that the geology (it's been extremely well cooked) mean it's very unlikely there are commercial quantities of oil in the area. Tight natural gas formations are not something there is any particular shortage of at the moment.

    Genie Energy has a market capitalisation of $178m. If you really believe that uncommercial quantities of natural gas (that will be competing with cheap CH4 molecules from the Leviathan field) are a goer, you are welcome to waste your money.
    Thanks rcs1000. I bow to your greater knowledge over this - I've been meaning to look into this and haven't had time thanks to being so tied up with that notorious address. I mean to have a look at i when I get chance.
    Martin Molyneaux of First Energy probably knows more about the geology of Northern Israel than any man alive, and his advice helped make a lot of people a lot of money on Leviathan. If you want to talk to him, I can probably arrange a call, but my understanding is that any hydrocarbons locked under the Golan Heights have been too hot for too long, and therefore the long-chains (oil) have broken down into short-chains (natural gas).
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    As much as I want it to happen, anyone who seriously thinks Leave is going to win this referendum is too caught up in it all. Take a step back, and breathe.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,809
    Sturgeon going on about Toory governments again.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Sturgeon: "The EU protects Pensions" - I'll remember that quote to throw back at the remain camp once the sovereign debt crisis begins in earnest.
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    tlg86 said:

    Gisela is brilliant, far too good for Labour.

    I love it when she says 'planning'. There's no come back. It would be like disagreeing with an Italian about pasta.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    Great answer on women rights from Andrea Leadsom
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    I'm a die hard leaver, but I like Rudd's strength.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Leadsom reverted to using the £10bn a year net contribution figure. Fair enough, that's not in dispute.

    Sturgeon tells a porky in response: "we get ten times as much back as we put in".


  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,170
    Blueberry said:

    tlg86 said:

    Gisela is brilliant, far too good for Labour.

    I love it when she says 'planning'. There's no come back. It would be like disagreeing with an Italian about pasta.
    Yes, I was a bit worried we may be getting a 5 year plan for the NHS :D
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Angela Eagle is hopeless

    and that's kind - of course she scores very well when taking PMQs instead of Corbyn, which illustrated just how poor he must be.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    As much as I want it to happen, anyone who seriously thinks Leave is going to win this referendum is too caught up in it all. Take a step back, and breathe.

    They are not going to win, I am reacting to the debate tonight.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I think all, bar Boris and Eagle, are doing quite well.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Blueberry said:

    tlg86 said:

    Gisela is brilliant, far too good for Labour.

    I love it when she says 'planning'. There's no come back. It would be like disagreeing with an Italian about pasta.
    Me too.
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    Angela Eagle drops a clanger, name-dropping Barbara Castle only to be helpfully informed by Boris of her opposition to the Common Market!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    LITTLE ENGLAND!!!!!!!!!!1
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    LITTLE ENGLAND KLAXON
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Leadsom impressive on women's rights.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leave talking to the voters. Remain talking to their supporters.

    I'm cautious to write it down, but feeling more and more to me that Remain know this has slipped away and are trying to minimise the scale of the loss on the 23rd...
    Hm, that doesn't make sense. It's a binary outcome, so they should be going all out for a win, rather than trying to minimise anything.
    Slight victory makes it much easier to find compromise..:

    To be fair to Rudd, she is trying to be patriotic - but is hectoring...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    Little England. Blimey, cultural imperialism is the policy of Remain.
This discussion has been closed.