politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest YouGov poll suggests Remain might see a caTaffstroph

Razedabode said:

"ECJ ruling says EU countries can't imprison migrants for crossing borders in schengen "

Not particularly good timing for remain

We are not in Schengen...

Apart from that

Razedabode said:

Quite, but it does perpetuate the point about security

That we have better border controls than our neighbours, sure.

PlatoSaid said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

From that Yougov GMB poll. Conservative 2015 voters on Dave Cameron
37% still trust him
56% do not trust him.

Ugly stuff when he can only attract just over 1/3 of the folk who voted Conservative a year ago.

That confirms what I'm seeing all over elsewhere.

That is pretty damning.

PlatoSaid said:

MaxPB said:

Just to note, I remember saying that Remain were deploying project fear far too early. The IMF "warning" about Brexit was about two weeks ago, and at the time I was assured that it was the right time and the drip drip effect would outweigh the big bang of doing it later, and getting the information out early would lay the foundation of a remain argument which could refer to these reports. I wonder whether Dodgy Dave will try to tap up these dodgy reports tonight. I think if he does the audience may turn on him.

Isn't there another IMF scare story due next week?

Even if there is, Miss P, how many people do you think will listen to it? Some will of course, but they are, I suspect, mostly likely to be those who have already bought into Project Fear. For the rest, I rather think, that it will be just one more story to skipped over/mentally screened out.

We have already been told that voting to re-join the ranks of independent nation states will bring about financial and economic armageddon, the collapse of of house prices and WW3. Furthermore we have been told this by people who have been proved totally wrong in the past. As a result the polling suggests that the contest has got closer and leave might actually win.

I doubt bringing back the French woman who is currently being prosecuted on charges of dishonesty in her own country to spread another scare story will have much effect.

There's no doubt the last minute heebie geebie bee factor will be enough win it for Remain. Cameron also I suspect will demolish Farage tonight. Leave probably have peaked.

The BBC has confirmed it will not be bringing back its much-derided highlights show Wimbledon 2day, instead reverting to its traditional Today at Wimbledon format.

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jun/07/bbc-wimbledon-2day-clare-balding

Thank god for that.

Alanbrooke said:

SeanT said:

Alanbrooke said:

midwinter said:

Alanbrooke said:

midwinter said:

tlg86 said:

taffys said:

ABoC: Farage's claim linking migrants to sex attacks is"inexcusable pandering" to prejudice and "legitimising racism"

The left are coming hard at Farage on this one. Saint Shami, the Venerable Doreen Lawrence and Ayatollah Warsi too.

Is Farage scaremongering? Undoubtedly. Is it any worse than the scaremongering by Remain? No.

That's horseshit. Most economists from either side agree there's a downside, short term at least, to Leaving. Nobody other than Farage is suggesting gangs of Eastern European rapists are going to be roaming the streets of English towns violating English girls.

yeah but give it a week and Dave and George will catch him up.

Gangs of Leavers roaming the streets?

Why not, we;ve had just about every other sort of bollocks over the last three months.

Feral gangs of bestial kipper fanatics will hump little old ladies poodles in front of them, nobody will have any money and the country will just become a huge foodbank, all our houses will collapse and you can buy a palace for a knee trembler or 20 silk cut.

There's no monopoly on stupid claims in this campaign.

Labour's "suggestion", today, that LEAVING the EU would bring an "end to paid holidays" was still pretty special.

https://twitter.com/93_smithereens/status/740132396541091840

Ive often wondered who actually sees these posters . If it wasnt for PB I wouldnt be aware any of them exist. Presumably it's to keep the twitterati frothing.

Living in a marginal constituency in an election year you see a LOT of posters.

logical_song said:

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Archbishop of Canterbury is coming out with some incredibly helpful lines for Remain and damaging for Farage

ABoC: Farage's claim linking migrants to sex attacks is"inexcusable pandering" to prejudice and "legitimising racism"

The AoC is an increasingly irrelevant figure.

So is Farage.

Which itself is good news for Leave.

If we Leave then he will be history.

RobC said:

There's no doubt the last minute heebie geebie bee factor will be enough win it for Remain. Cameron also I suspect will demolish Farage tonight. Leave probably have peaked.

I expect Farage will do very well in the debate. He knows the subject inside out.

Gove and Boris respond to Cameron's presser by challenging him to a debate.

Brave sir Dave, he chickened out.....

YBarddCwsc said:

it is silly to deny he has considerable charisma and electoral appeal.

Remind me how many times he has won a Westminster seat?

''For once, I just read something interesting in the Grauniad comments section. A commenter suggested that telling the poor that leaving the EU would make you poor just doesn't work.''

I wish we still had the Like button.

david_herdson said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Archbishop of Canterbury is coming out with some incredibly helpful lines for Remain and damaging for Farage

ABoC: Farage's claim linking migrants to sex attacks is"inexcusable pandering" to prejudice and "legitimising racism"

ROFL yes, that really will turn back the tide of "stuff the establishment".

Old Etonian, scion of posh boys and Archbishop says the plebs must behave from his London palace.

I'm curious about Welby's logic. Presumably, from what he says, racism can be legitimate if endorsed by individuals of sufficient authority - which he implies that Farage is?

The logic of the Church Of England passeth all understanding. I had a big row with my vicar in 1988 when the general synod convinced itself that putting burning tyres full of petrol around peoples' necks was, in some circumstances, an OK thing to do.

On the whole, the CofE has suffered complete moral collapse in the past few decades and beyond being a right-on, progressive organisation has no idea in what it believes.

Sean_F said:

RobC said:

There's no doubt the last minute heebie geebie bee factor will be enough win it for Remain. Cameron also I suspect will demolish Farage tonight. Leave probably have peaked.

I expect Farage will do very well in the debate. He knows the subject inside out.

Possibly he will but there are risks in knowing the subject inside out. The first is not pitching at the right level for the audience's own knowledge - either patronisingly simply or too technical an complex - and the second is assuming that everyone else is as interested in the subject as he is.

He may well not do that but his task tonight is a very different one from that which he had at the general election debate (in which he became too angry).

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Archbishop of Canterbury is coming out with some incredibly helpful lines for Remain and damaging for Farage

ABoC: Farage's claim linking migrants to sex attacks is"inexcusable pandering" to prejudice and "legitimising racism"

The same might have been said about grooming gangs in Rotherham and elsewhere. Telling the truth is a higher value than not saying things just because someone might not like hearing it. One would have thought that the AoC would have understood that point, if nothing else.

Perhaps he needs to be reminded of the following quote:-

"The man who is honest in small things will be honest in great. The man who is dishonest in small things will be dishonest in great."

Personally, I don't particularly like Farage using rape as a reason for leaving the EU. There clearly is a problem with the sexual attitudes of some migrants but that applies to groups who are citizens in our countries as well. Sexual assault did not start with the EU and will not end with our departure. The ability to choose whom we let into the country and our ability to deport those who break our laws are key issues but they require careful thought about how to get the best effective policies to achieve what I would hope we would all want.

For a lawyer you really seem to struggle with the concept of racial stereotyping. Most lawyers I know -and I'm from a family of them- like to take every case on its merit. I always thought it was something to do with their training. A few disclaimers which usually find their way into your later paragraphs doesn't excuse it at all. A basic lesson most learn at school. "Because Billy was a Scotsman and Billy was mean doesn't make every Scotsman mean.

Looking at that EU poll from the other day, christ Cameron's trust ratings really are awful.

Do you trust the following on the EU?
Boris Johnson - 31%
Jeremy Corbyn - 25%
Nigel Farage - 25%
Nicola Sturgeon - 23% (this is UK-wide!!)
David Cameron - 19%

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/hkfno5n9fo/GMB_Results_160603_UndecidedVoters_Website.pdf

Roger said:

A basic lesson most learn at school. "Because Billy was a Scotsman and Billy was mean doesn't make every Scotsman mean.

True. The issue, however, is that some people have a difficulty accepting that different people are more prone to behavior that we do not like. See Jess Philips for the classic example:

http://tinyurl.com/zk3dpwk

Danny565 said:

Looking at that EU poll from the other day, christ Cameron's trust ratings really are awful.

Do you trust the following on the EU?
Boris Johnson - 31%
Jeremy Corbyn - 25%
Nigel Farage - 25%
Nicola Sturgeon - 23% (this is UK-wide!!)
David Cameron - 19%

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/hkfno5n9fo/GMB_Results_160603_UndecidedVoters_Website.pdf

"All political careers, unless they are cut off at a happy juncture, end in failure."

Roger said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Archbishop of Canterbury is coming out with some incredibly helpful lines for Remain and damaging for Farage

ABoC: Farage's claim linking migrants to sex attacks is"inexcusable pandering" to prejudice and "legitimising racism"

The same might have been said about grooming gangs in Rotherham and elsewhere. Telling the truth is a higher value than not saying things just because someone might not like hearing it. One would have thought that the AoC would have understood that point, if nothing else.

Perhaps he needs to be reminded of the following quote:-

"The man who is honest in small things will be honest in great. The man who is dishonest in small things will be dishonest in great."

Personally, I don't particularly like Farage using rape as a reason for leaving the EU. There clearly is a problem with the sexual attitudes of some migrants but that applies to groups who are citizens in our countries as well. Sexual assault did not start with the EU and will not end with our departure. The ability to choose whom we let into the country and our ability to deport those who break our laws are key issues but they require careful thought about how to get the best effective policies to achieve what I would hope we would all want.

For a lawyer you really seem to struggle with the concept of racial stereotyping. Most lawyers I know -and I'm from a family of them- like to take every case on its merit. I always thought it was something to do with their training. A few disclaimers which usually find their way into your later paragraphs doesn't excuse it at all. A basic lesson most learn at school. "Because Billy was a Scotsman and Billy was mean doesn't make every Scotsman mean.

Oh Roge, for someone who speaks the language you really seem to struggle with the concept of comprehension of other posts.

Go and read Ms. Cyclefree's comment again after taking off your preconception spectacles, and you'll see it is as balanced as ever.

What a completely depressing thread.

PlatoSaid said:

10000 new jobs to be created by Domino's Pizza.

Brexit is the right sort of topping

Great news

Mortimer said:

I'm convinced we're going to see vast swathes of people who would never vote anything other than Labour in the North and East of England, and the South of Wales vote LEAVE.

Completely agree , think we'll see a majority Labour WWC vote to leave offset by Conservative AB1 having second thoughts in the booth and plumping for Remain to save their house prices.
Leave will carry the day based on a very high turnout of CDE.

Completely agree , think we'll see a majority Labour WWC vote to leave offset by Conservative AB1 having second thoughts in the booth and plumping for Remain to save their house prices.

Mr Tony I'm a conservative South East property owner and I'd be more than happy to see properrty prices cool off if it meant our young people could get a chance to own their own home.

Many older tory property owners are also parents, or work with younger folk.

Roger said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For a lawyer you really seem to struggle with the concept of racial stereotyping. Most lawyers I know -and I'm from a family of them- like to take every case on its merit. I always thought it was something to do with their training. A few disclaimers which usually find their way into your later paragraphs doesn't excuse it at all. A basic lesson most learn at school. "Because Billy was a Scotsman and Billy was mean doesn't make every Scotsman mean.

Which is precisely why I said that I do not like what Farage is doing and why I used the phrase "some" rather than "all" and "careful thought" and deportation of people who break our laws i.e. after a trial and conviction which I - rather better than you, I think - understand involves making a decision on the facts. Perhaps you need to learn to read and understand a bit more carefully than assuming that I said things which I did not say.

It is those who say that something must not be said because it might lead others to make unwarranted conclusions who are afraid of the facts. And the AoC appears to fall into this category. As, I am afraid, do you. You seem quite unwilling to accept that some migrants have - on the evidence we have seen in Germany and elsewhere - an approach to women which many women find really quite repellent and which often involve breaches of our laws. Saying so is not pandering to prejudice or racism. Not talking about issues does not make them go away. It risks making them worse and it makes the victims of crimes feel abandoned. Please go and read the evidence - as I have - in some of the recent grooming cases in Britain if you want to know what the jury found. Or the report on Rotherham and why those crimes were ignored.

I have been a victim of serious sexual assault and I feel pretty angry when others either seek to diminish what women like me suffer because they daren't criticise the attacker or seek to make spurious political points out of our suffering.

You cannot deal with problems if you ignore them. If people like the AoC won't talk sensibly about the problems of sexual assault and the problems of young men coming from cultures with very different approaches to women and women's sexuality than our own then he can hardly complain if it is left to the Farages of this world to do so and to do so in a way which sheds more heat than light on the subject.

Or you can carry on making unfounded accusations at others for things they have not said.

Your call.

Tony said:

Mortimer said:

I'm convinced we're going to see vast swathes of people who would never vote anything other than Labour in the North and East of England, and the South of Wales vote LEAVE.

Completely agree , think we'll see a majority Labour WWC vote to leave offset by Conservative AB1 having second thoughts in the booth and plumping for Remain to save their house prices.
Leave will carry the day based on a very high turnout of CDE.

We shall see, here's what happened in 2015:

Social Class
AB 75%
C1 69%
C2 62%
DE 57%

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

PlatoSaid said:

david_herdson said:

Sean_F said:

RobC said:

There's no doubt the last minute heebie geebie bee factor will be enough win it for Remain. Cameron also I suspect will demolish Farage tonight. Leave probably have peaked.

I expect Farage will do very well in the debate. He knows the subject inside out.

Possibly he will but there are risks in knowing the subject inside out. The first is not pitching at the right level for the audience's own knowledge - either patronisingly simply or too technical an complex - and the second is assuming that everyone else is as interested in the subject as he is.

He may well not do that but his task tonight is a very different one from that which he had at the general election debate (in which he became too angry).

I'd be very, very surprised = he's been doing this for years with live audiences. He can be too blokey for some, but he's very good at it.

The swing voters in this referendum are quite different from the usual UKIP-possible swing voters he pitches to though.

FrancisUrquhart said:

PlatoSaid said:

10000 new jobs to be created by Domino's Pizza.

Brexit is the right sort of topping

Can't be right. If we leave the EU, we will be poorer than the Sudan, so wont be able to afford over priced take away pizza.

Those who get employed to dig the plague pits will be able to afford pizza.

Philip_Thompson said:

PlatoSaid said:

david_herdson said:

Sean_F said:

RobC said:

There's no doubt the last minute heebie geebie bee factor will be enough win it for Remain. Cameron also I suspect will demolish Farage tonight. Leave probably have peaked.

I expect Farage will do very well in the debate. He knows the subject inside out.

Possibly he will but there are risks in knowing the subject inside out. The first is not pitching at the right level for the audience's own knowledge - either patronisingly simply or too technical an complex - and the second is assuming that everyone else is as interested in the subject as he is.

He may well not do that but his task tonight is a very different one from that which he had at the general election debate (in which he became too angry).

I'd be very, very surprised = he's been doing this for years with live audiences. He can be too blokey for some, but he's very good at it.

He was awful in the seven way debate last year. Leavers can thank their lucky stars that Farage has not been running the show and that Hoey, Johnson, Gove etc have made this as close as it is. He may be OK tonight if he remembers he's trying to appeal to a majority of the nation and not core vote only.

Gove has lower ratings than Farage does.

Tony said:

Mortimer said:

I'm convinced we're going to see vast swathes of people who would never vote anything other than Labour in the North and East of England, and the South of Wales vote LEAVE.

Completely agree , think we'll see a majority Labour WWC vote to leave offset by Conservative AB1 having second thoughts in the booth and plumping for Remain to save their house prices.
Leave will carry the day based on a very high turnout of CDE.

Mr. Tony, I am an AB1 as are most of my social set. None of us give a hoot about the prices of our houses but are all very concerned about the future of our children and grandchildren. In my experience those of us richer in years, of whatever social class, are less likely to vote for their own benefit and more for what they see as the best future for the next generations.

For anyone who's interested in economics, here's my latest dispatch.

http://www.thstailwinds.com/the-dispatch-problem/

Disclaimer: it contains absolutely nothing about Brexit.

logical_song said:

Tony said:

Mortimer said:

I'm convinced we're going to see vast swathes of people who would never vote anything other than Labour in the North and East of England, and the South of Wales vote LEAVE.

Completely agree , think we'll see a majority Labour WWC vote to leave offset by Conservative AB1 having second thoughts in the booth and plumping for Remain to save their house prices.
Leave will carry the day based on a very high turnout of CDE.

We shall see, here's what happened in 2015:

Social Class
AB 75%
C1 69%
C2 62%
DE 57%

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

Compare turnout to say 1992 , when there was more enthusiasm for labour
As Labour has moved away from it's roots CDE turnout has dropped.
The WWC are very agitated by the Immigration numbers, rightly or wrongly.

Social Class
AB 83%
C1 78%
C2 75%
DE 77%

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2799&view=wide

Danny565 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

PlatoSaid said:

david_herdson said:

Sean_F said:

RobC said:

There's no doubt the last minute heebie geebie bee factor will be enough win it for Remain. Cameron also I suspect will demolish Farage tonight. Leave probably have peaked.

I expect Farage will do very well in the debate. He knows the subject inside out.

Possibly he will but there are risks in knowing the subject inside out. The first is not pitching at the right level for the audience's own knowledge - either patronisingly simply or too technical an complex - and the second is assuming that everyone else is as interested in the subject as he is.

He may well not do that but his task tonight is a very different one from that which he had at the general election debate (in which he became too angry).

I'd be very, very surprised = he's been doing this for years with live audiences. He can be too blokey for some, but he's very good at it.

He was awful in the seven way debate last year. Leavers can thank their lucky stars that Farage has not been running the show and that Hoey, Johnson, Gove etc have made this as close as it is. He may be OK tonight if he remembers he's trying to appeal to a majority of the nation and not core vote only.

Gove has lower ratings than Farage does.

It's actually working well. Farage is rallying the core voters. Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Kate Hoey are winning over floating voters. Farage was quite right that Leave should focus on immigration, but he would have been the wrong man to do so.

rcs1000 said:

For anyone who's interested in economics, here's my latest dispatch.

http://www.thstailwinds.com/the-dispatch-problem/

Disclaimer: it contains absolutely nothing about Brexit.

What I think it misses is Uber's interest in the problem.

SeanT said:

Helpful intervention from David Cameron's father in law, Lord Astor, saying even if we vote LEAVE, MPs will block it

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/the-eurosceptic-case-for-voting-remain/

Remain really really don't want to be giving legs to that argument.

Pulpstar said:

PlatoSaid said:

Danny565 said:

Looking at that EU poll from the other day, christ Cameron's trust ratings really are awful.

Do you trust the following on the EU?
Boris Johnson - 31%
Jeremy Corbyn - 25%
Nigel Farage - 25%
Nicola Sturgeon - 23% (this is UK-wide!!)
David Cameron - 19%

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/hkfno5n9fo/GMB_Results_160603_UndecidedVoters_Website.pdf

Cameron's down to 17% now

Wonder what George Osborne's ratings would be..

-2% (Includes my 2 cats)

Gisela Stewart gave Chukka a good slap down on the Daily Politics. He was going on about Workers Rights and she said "if you haven't got a job, then you won't be worrying about Workers Rights." Is this really the big issue for Labour?

It is going to be interesting after the referendum to see how Labour voters react to the virtual disappearance of the big figures in Labour. Jeremy Corbyn not taking part in any debate. Andy Burnham too busy plotting for his next job. Yvette Cooper was booed in "Labour Manchester" yesterday.

On the issue of ABs vs CDs voting intetnion - there are, I'm sure, very many ABs like me who will be voting Leave for a variety of reasons. Mine is primarily the democracy / sovereignty one. But...I'd be very happy to see the Pound fall and for interest rates to rise. As would any wealthy oldie if they thought about things for 5 minutes. The failure to offer a return on savings is a sodding crime, and distorting our whole economic model. A 10% fall in the Pound and interest rates available from bank savings accounts at 3% would suit me just dandy. Vote Leave.

Roger said:

tlg86 said:

Roger said:

A basic lesson most learn at school. "Because Billy was a Scotsman and Billy was mean doesn't make every Scotsman mean.

Congratulations by the way. You are one of the only UKIP posters who invariably keeps racism out of your posts

Mortimer said:

Roger said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Archbishop of Canterbury is coming out with some incredibly helpful lines for Remain and damaging for Farage

ABoC: Farage's claim linking migrants to sex attacks is"inexcusable pandering" to prejudice and "legitimising racism"

The same might have been said about grooming gangs in Rotherham and elsewhere. Telling the truth is a higher value than not saying things just because someone might not like hearing it. One would have thought that the AoC would have understood that point, if nothing else.

Perhaps he needs to be reminded of the following quote:-

"The man who is honest in small things will be honest in great. The man who is dishonest in small things will be dishonest in great."

Personally, I don't particularly like Farage using rape as a reason for leaving the EU. There clearly is a problem with the sexual attitudes of some migrants but that applies to groups who are citizens in our countries as well. Sexual assault did not start with the EU and will not end with our departure. The ability to choose whom we let into the country and our ability to deport those who break our laws are key issues but they require careful thought about how to get the best effective policies to achieve what I would hope we would all want.

For a lawyer you really seem to struggle with the concept of racial stereotyping. Most lawyers I know -and I'm from a family of them- like to take every case on its merit. I always thought it was something to do with their training. A few disclaimers which usually find their way into your later paragraphs doesn't excuse it at all. A basic lesson most learn at school. "Because Billy was a Scotsman and Billy was mean doesn't make every Scotsman mean.

Oh Roge, for someone who speaks the language you really seem to struggle with the concept of comprehension of other posts.

Go and read Ms. Cyclefree's comment again after taking off your preconception spectacles, and you'll see it is as balanced as ever.

That tells me much more about you than Cyclefree. You don't even need an ability to read between the lines

If you make unfounded noise about one of the fairest posters here, is it a surprise that people comment against it?

And I don't have a clue what you mean about reading between the lines. I find reading the lines is a much better way to understand what people have written. Don't you?

SeanT said:

BTW that Spectator piece explaining how MPS will ignore us, if we vote, LEAVE, is really quite something

De haut en bas, or what

And Dave's stepfather-in-law is clearly not pleased with his stepson-in-law.

One of the things that intrigues me is what would happen if an insurgent right wing party were to win an election in a Western European country, or looked as if it would do so. I wonder if the authorities would resort to force to prevent it.

SeanT said:

PlatoSaid said:

Danny565 said:

George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 1m1 minute ago
Remain campaign polling has them ahead but four points down in last week, source says.

I do hope Remain hands over the data as Leave did to Sky.

Last week, internal polling apparently had REMAIN ahead by 6-8 points. If they've lost 4, that means they are now ahead, on their own reckoning, by 2-4, and the trend is against them.

Eeek.

You can see why Cameron is panicking.

You are making the huge, and very possibly entirely wrong, assumption that it is a 'trend'. One weekly shift does not constitute a trend. More likely, it is a one off correction thanks to a week of immigration stuff from Leave. Now their campaign has shot that particular load, the trend poll movement might very well be other way, or there may be no movement at all.