I'm hearing reports that the Housing Market is coming to a screeching halt. Causes
- End of Stamp Duty holiday has finished any rushed transactions, and now affecting sentiment. - Dip after the rush of the last week or two whilst backoffices catch up. - Dawning realisation that some taxes are coming down the road. - Delaying until Oct 23 to find out.
If you are buying, now may be a good time to deal.
Interesting.
I suspect people are starting to factor in interest rate rises coming down the road.
What impact do people think a 4-5% interest rate would have on average house prices?
I recon -30%, possibly more.
I think even a 0.25% or 0.5% rise would send chills through the housing market
Am suspicious that a certain proportion of mortgage holders aren't actually aware interest rates can rise.
Rod McKenzie, managing director of the Road Haulage Association, said that a promise by ministers a week ago of three-month visas for 5,000 drivers, “simply does not work.”
makes you wonder why the RHA didnt do something about it four years ago
One interesting thing is that we didn't have many EU HGV drivers here in 2015, so they weren't driving down wages.
The big drop is since 2019.
Cumulative effect - 1% here and 1% there and soon you're dealing with substantial numbers.
Especially if its having an effect on the number of younger British people becoming drivers.
An ageing workforce in any economic sector is a sign of fundamental problems.
Depends, the causality could be the drop in younger driver intake sucking in outside labour, like with farm food picking.
Edit: been very impressed (in the wrong way) with the reportage coming out in recent months on the way [further edit] driving staff are treated universally in Europe, including the UK.
Likewise with meat production:
Every inch of Margot’s body hurt from the unrelenting work. Her hands bled from blisters that burst as she repeatedly hauled carcasses, but she would wait until she got home to sterilise her wounds with ammonia. “If you didn’t do your job well, you’d be pushed – they didn’t care if your hands were full of blood,” she says.
This wasn’t the life Margot* imagined when she left her job in a clothes factory near her home village in Romania in search of better prospects for her young family in western Europe. She thought labour conditions in the Netherlands – where she worked for three years in a meat factory – would be much more favourable than in her home country. “I didn’t expect it to be so awful.”
Is Brexit causing special or unusual glitches in the UK? Probably. But as the IRISH Times says, Brexit as a problem is dwarfed by this planet-wide turbulence. Brexit is not causing the power cuts across swathes of China
But Brexit can and will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. It's going to have to be continuously defended for decades. It has already become synonymous with 'shit'.
In your febrile brain, perhaps. In the minds of others brexit might become associated with, say, higher wages, or more jobs.
Also, this won’t go on for decades. Already many people roll their eyes when Brexit is mentioned - in the real world, not Twitter or PB. In 5 years it will be an issue raised by embittered cranks, as other newer problems, disasters, developments, opportunities intervene
LOL
;pre vote we were harried by the nailed on prospect of mass unemployment should we vote to Leave.
Post vote we have a shortage of labour
It's not just Brexit though. The financial crash, the spending cuts after that, Covid, and probably other things have all been predicted to lead to "X million unemployed". The doom-mongers have been consistently and wildly wrong. For reasons I can't even understand the UK has a remarkably resiliant labour market. You would think eventually the talking heads would look back and think "I'll shut my gob" but they don't ever seem to learn from their dismal track record of forecasting.
I don't remmber the X million unemployed warning, but I do remember the reduction in trade warning, leading to employment issues, and prices going up.
I also remember the "we have all the cards", "EU falling over themselves to trade with us", and "there's no reason we could have a trade deal from day one",
No one, on either side, predicted a Labour shortage. Brexit moves in mysterious ways. Who dare question the Will of Brexit? It will provide.
Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of the Remain Campaign, called it right on the very first day.
Brexit, he said, will lead to wages going up.
True. But unless matched by higher productivity, it will cause general inflation. So the end result will be a redistribution of real income from those in occupations not in competition with EU migrants to those who are. The country as a whole won't be better off.
Ultimately the only ways to be better paid as a country are to increase our productivity, or reduce the real prices we pay, for example by deregulation.
If it redistributes income from those not working to those who are then that's an improvement in its own right
But there's no reason why productivity wouldn't rise. Incentivised to do so, people will invest in improvements and technology to aid productivity.
You'd have two effects. On the one hand there would be a substitution effect, as firms are incentivised to substitute capital for Labour. But as I explained below that's probably limited. On the other, there would be an income effect, as business as a whole is less profitable.
The idea that we can pay-rise ourselves to prosperity is as seductive as the idea that we can tax and spend ourselves to prosperity, and just as accurate. The only way to increase prosperity overall is to increase productivity.
Mrs Thatcher made a really good speech on this. I'll try and did it out.
Thatcher was right that you can't buck the market to get pay rises faster than the market can cope with.
But we absolutely can if we have full employment and productivity growth.
There was real wage growth over the eighties and justifiably so. It's justifiable today to have the market increase wages too.
Is Brexit causing special or unusual glitches in the UK? Probably. But as the IRISH Times says, Brexit as a problem is dwarfed by this planet-wide turbulence. Brexit is not causing the power cuts across swathes of China
But Brexit can and will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. It's going to have to be continuously defended for decades. It has already become synonymous with 'shit'.
In your febrile brain, perhaps. In the minds of others brexit might become associated with, say, higher wages, or more jobs.
Also, this won’t go on for decades. Already many people roll their eyes when Brexit is mentioned - in the real world, not Twitter or PB. In 5 years it will be an issue raised by embittered cranks, as other newer problems, disasters, developments, opportunities intervene
LOL
;pre vote we were harried by the nailed on prospect of mass unemployment should we vote to Leave.
Post vote we have a shortage of labour
It's not just Brexit though. The financial crash, the spending cuts after that, Covid, and probably other things have all been predicted to lead to "X million unemployed". The doom-mongers have been consistently and wildly wrong. For reasons I can't even understand the UK has a remarkably resiliant labour market. You would think eventually the talking heads would look back and think "I'll shut my gob" but they don't ever seem to learn from their dismal track record of forecasting.
I don't remmber the X million unemployed warning, but I do remember the reduction in trade warning, leading to employment issues, and prices going up.
I also remember the "we have all the cards", "EU falling over themselves to trade with us", and "there's no reason we could have a trade deal from day one",
No one, on either side, predicted a Labour shortage. Brexit moves in mysterious ways. Who dare question the Will of Brexit? It will provide.
Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of the Remain Campaign, called it right on the very first day.
Brexit, he said, will lead to wages going up.
True. But unless matched by higher productivity, it will cause general inflation. So the end result will be a redistribution of real income from those in occupations not in competition with EU migrants to those who are. The country as a whole won't be better off.
Ultimately the only ways to be better paid as a country are to increase our productivity, or reduce the real prices we pay, for example by deregulation.
If it redistributes income from those not working to those who are then that's an improvement in its own right
But there's no reason why productivity wouldn't rise. Incentivised to do so, people will invest in improvements and technology to aid productivity.
You'd have two effects. On the one hand there would be a substitution effect, as firms are incentivised to substitute capital for Labour. But as I explained below that's probably limited. On the other, there would be an income effect, as business as a whole is less profitable.
The idea that we can pay-rise ourselves to prosperity is as seductive as the idea that we can tax and spend ourselves to prosperity, and just as accurate. The only way to increase prosperity overall is to increase productivity.
Mrs Thatcher made a really good speech on this. I'll try and did it out.
Thatcher was right that you can't buck the market to get pay rises faster than the market can cope with.
But we absolutely can if we have full employment and productivity growth.
There was real wage growth over the eighties and justifiably so. It's justifiable today to have the market increase wages too.
Wage growth is usually bad. Growth in the standard of living, usually good.
I'm hearing reports that the Housing Market is coming to a screeching halt. Causes
- End of Stamp Duty holiday has finished any rushed transactions, and now affecting sentiment. - Dip after the rush of the last week or two whilst backoffices catch up. - Dawning realisation that some taxes are coming down the road. - Delaying until Oct 23 to find out.
If you are buying, now may be a good time to deal.
Interesting.
I suspect people are starting to factor in interest rate rises coming down the road.
What impact do people think a 4-5% interest rate would have on average house prices?
I recon -30%, possibly more.
I think even a 0.25% or 0.5% rise would send chills through the housing market
Am suspicious that a certain proportion of mortgage holders aren't actually aware interest rates can rise.
Anyone under 35, has never really known anything except interest rates on the floor.
Just come across this article which backs this up.
Not so much the article.which explains very basic facts about mortgages and interest rates that no one who bought a house before 2008 would be unaware of. But the fact they felt it needed writing at all.
The thing about Cressida Dick is that, even if we make the heroic assumption that she is good at her job, she has nonetheless lost the confidence of the public. That will in itself harm policing and make reform harder. She should resign and let someone new take over.
But the calls for her to resign are not quite that unaminous. 38% of the public; according to a poll reported this morning. It isn't a 'george floyd' moment. There is a sense of public digust at an absolutely terrible crime, but this does not necessarily translate in to a lack of confidence in the police. You would need to dig deeper in to public opinion before arriving at that conclusion.
Not a fan of Cressida Dick but I don't know why she should resign because of what someone else did.
Is Brexit causing special or unusual glitches in the UK? Probably. But as the IRISH Times says, Brexit as a problem is dwarfed by this planet-wide turbulence. Brexit is not causing the power cuts across swathes of China
But Brexit can and will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. It's going to have to be continuously defended for decades. It has already become synonymous with 'shit'.
In your febrile brain, perhaps. In the minds of others brexit might become associated with, say, higher wages, or more jobs.
Also, this won’t go on for decades. Already many people roll their eyes when Brexit is mentioned - in the real world, not Twitter or PB. In 5 years it will be an issue raised by embittered cranks, as other newer problems, disasters, developments, opportunities intervene
LOL
;pre vote we were harried by the nailed on prospect of mass unemployment should we vote to Leave.
Post vote we have a shortage of labour
It's not just Brexit though. The financial crash, the spending cuts after that, Covid, and probably other things have all been predicted to lead to "X million unemployed". The doom-mongers have been consistently and wildly wrong. For reasons I can't even understand the UK has a remarkably resiliant labour market. You would think eventually the talking heads would look back and think "I'll shut my gob" but they don't ever seem to learn from their dismal track record of forecasting.
I don't remmber the X million unemployed warning, but I do remember the reduction in trade warning, leading to employment issues, and prices going up.
I also remember the "we have all the cards", "EU falling over themselves to trade with us", and "there's no reason we could have a trade deal from day one",
No one, on either side, predicted a Labour shortage. Brexit moves in mysterious ways. Who dare question the Will of Brexit? It will provide.
Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of the Remain Campaign, called it right on the very first day.
Brexit, he said, will lead to wages going up.
True. But unless matched by higher productivity, it will cause general inflation. So the end result will be a redistribution of real income from those in occupations not in competition with EU migrants to those who are. The country as a whole won't be better off.
Ultimately the only ways to be better paid as a country are to increase our productivity, or reduce the real prices we pay, for example by deregulation.
If it redistributes income from those not working to those who are then that's an improvement in its own right
But there's no reason why productivity wouldn't rise. Incentivised to do so, people will invest in improvements and technology to aid productivity.
You'd have two effects. On the one hand there would be a substitution effect, as firms are incentivised to substitute capital for Labour. But as I explained below that's probably limited. On the other, there would be an income effect, as business as a whole is less profitable.
The idea that we can pay-rise ourselves to prosperity is as seductive as the idea that we can tax and spend ourselves to prosperity, and just as accurate. The only way to increase prosperity overall is to increase productivity.
Mrs Thatcher made a really good speech on this. I'll try and did it out.
Thatcher was right that you can't buck the market to get pay rises faster than the market can cope with.
But we absolutely can if we have full employment and productivity growth.
There was real wage growth over the eighties and justifiably so. It's justifiable today to have the market increase wages too.
Wage growth is usually bad. Growth in the standard of living, usually good.
Wage growth is fine as long as it doesn't outpace productivity growth. Because then it has to lead eventually to inflation.
I'm hearing reports that the Housing Market is coming to a screeching halt. Causes
- End of Stamp Duty holiday has finished any rushed transactions, and now affecting sentiment. - Dip after the rush of the last week or two whilst backoffices catch up. - Dawning realisation that some taxes are coming down the road. - Delaying until Oct 23 to find out.
If you are buying, now may be a good time to deal.
Interesting.
I suspect people are starting to factor in interest rate rises coming down the road.
What impact do people think a 4-5% interest rate would have on average house prices?
I recon -30%, possibly more.
I think even a 0.25% or 0.5% rise would send chills through the housing market
Am suspicious that a certain proportion of mortgage holders aren't actually aware interest rates can rise.
Anyone under 35, has never really known anything except interest rates on the floor.
Just come across this article which backs this up.
Not so much the article.which explains very basic facts about mortgages and interest rates that no one who bought a house before 2008 would be unaware of. But the fact they felt it needed writing at all.
I like this bit:
If you have a £500,000 mortgage your monthly repayments, over 25 years, will be £1,883pcm at one per cent.
That's about double the average house price in the UK.
We're all aware that house prices are higher in London but that reveals the absurdity of it.
The thing about Cressida Dick is that, even if we make the heroic assumption that she is good at her job, she has nonetheless lost the confidence of the public. That will in itself harm policing and make reform harder. She should resign and let someone new take over.
But the calls for her to resign are not quite that unaminous. 38% of the public; according to a poll reported this morning. It isn't a 'george floyd' moment. There is a sense of public digust at an absolutely terrible crime, but this does not necessarily translate in to a lack of confidence in the police. You would need to dig deeper in to public opinion before arriving at that conclusion.
Not a fan of Cressida Dick but I don't know why she should resign because of what someone else did.
Because culture is set from the top.
There is also the matter of her interfering in the Morgan investigation to frustrate the inquest.
Is Brexit causing special or unusual glitches in the UK? Probably. But as the IRISH Times says, Brexit as a problem is dwarfed by this planet-wide turbulence. Brexit is not causing the power cuts across swathes of China
But Brexit can and will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. It's going to have to be continuously defended for decades. It has already become synonymous with 'shit'.
In your febrile brain, perhaps. In the minds of others brexit might become associated with, say, higher wages, or more jobs.
Also, this won’t go on for decades. Already many people roll their eyes when Brexit is mentioned - in the real world, not Twitter or PB. In 5 years it will be an issue raised by embittered cranks, as other newer problems, disasters, developments, opportunities intervene
LOL
;pre vote we were harried by the nailed on prospect of mass unemployment should we vote to Leave.
Post vote we have a shortage of labour
It's not just Brexit though. The financial crash, the spending cuts after that, Covid, and probably other things have all been predicted to lead to "X million unemployed". The doom-mongers have been consistently and wildly wrong. For reasons I can't even understand the UK has a remarkably resiliant labour market. You would think eventually the talking heads would look back and think "I'll shut my gob" but they don't ever seem to learn from their dismal track record of forecasting.
I don't remmber the X million unemployed warning, but I do remember the reduction in trade warning, leading to employment issues, and prices going up.
I also remember the "we have all the cards", "EU falling over themselves to trade with us", and "there's no reason we could have a trade deal from day one",
No one, on either side, predicted a Labour shortage. Brexit moves in mysterious ways. Who dare question the Will of Brexit? It will provide.
Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of the Remain Campaign, called it right on the very first day.
Brexit, he said, will lead to wages going up.
True. But unless matched by higher productivity, it will cause general inflation. So the end result will be a redistribution of real income from those in occupations not in competition with EU migrants to those who are. The country as a whole won't be better off.
Ultimately the only ways to be better paid as a country are to increase our productivity, or reduce the real prices we pay, for example by deregulation.
If it redistributes income from those not working to those who are then that's an improvement in its own right
But there's no reason why productivity wouldn't rise. Incentivised to do so, people will invest in improvements and technology to aid productivity.
You'd have two effects. On the one hand there would be a substitution effect, as firms are incentivised to substitute capital for Labour. But as I explained below that's probably limited. On the other, there would be an income effect, as business as a whole is less profitable.
The idea that we can pay-rise ourselves to prosperity is as seductive as the idea that we can tax and spend ourselves to prosperity, and just as accurate. The only way to increase prosperity overall is to increase productivity.
Mrs Thatcher made a really good speech on this. I'll try and did it out.
Thatcher was right that you can't buck the market to get pay rises faster than the market can cope with.
But we absolutely can if we have full employment and productivity growth.
There was real wage growth over the eighties and justifiably so. It's justifiable today to have the market increase wages too.
Wage growth is usually bad. Growth in the standard of living, usually good.
How do you get standard in living growth without wage growth?
Especially when we've had decades of high inflation in costs?
Again housing costs which have had rocketing inflation form a higher proportion of household expenditure than food costs do or did in the 70s too.
I don't have an opinion about British petrol shortages but the political point is that even if everybody thinks it's Brexit that's doing it, there will be an indignant argument about whether it's 80% Brexit or merely 65% Brexit, and the people who liked Brexit will feel like Boris is sticking up for them against the insufferable 80%ers. There are more than 40% of these people, and in the British system 40% wins you the election. I don't really have any good ideas for what Labour can do about this.
Yup. As someone upthread said, Brexit is a religion. 40% are fundamentalists. Under FPTP, that means a theocracy.
The slightly more complicated, boring but possibly true suggestion is that a number of groups of all shades of opinion have, so to speak, transferred religious instincts to other things. Religions can be marginalised but not human nature, which is highly religious in many cases.
The way the hard left, the totalitarian right, some Brexiteers, some Remainers and no doubt others act towards criticism and make their criticisms feels more like a religious than a political response. Being wrong is not an option, nor is compromise or sensible discussion.
But these are activists. Most people don't belong to quasi religious politics; they keep quiet (mostly) except on General Election day.
Is Brexit causing special or unusual glitches in the UK? Probably. But as the IRISH Times says, Brexit as a problem is dwarfed by this planet-wide turbulence. Brexit is not causing the power cuts across swathes of China
But Brexit can and will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. It's going to have to be continuously defended for decades. It has already become synonymous with 'shit'.
In your febrile brain, perhaps. In the minds of others brexit might become associated with, say, higher wages, or more jobs.
Also, this won’t go on for decades. Already many people roll their eyes when Brexit is mentioned - in the real world, not Twitter or PB. In 5 years it will be an issue raised by embittered cranks, as other newer problems, disasters, developments, opportunities intervene
LOL
;pre vote we were harried by the nailed on prospect of mass unemployment should we vote to Leave.
Post vote we have a shortage of labour
It's not just Brexit though. The financial crash, the spending cuts after that, Covid, and probably other things have all been predicted to lead to "X million unemployed". The doom-mongers have been consistently and wildly wrong. For reasons I can't even understand the UK has a remarkably resiliant labour market. You would think eventually the talking heads would look back and think "I'll shut my gob" but they don't ever seem to learn from their dismal track record of forecasting.
I don't remmber the X million unemployed warning, but I do remember the reduction in trade warning, leading to employment issues, and prices going up.
I also remember the "we have all the cards", "EU falling over themselves to trade with us", and "there's no reason we could have a trade deal from day one",
No one, on either side, predicted a Labour shortage. Brexit moves in mysterious ways. Who dare question the Will of Brexit? It will provide.
Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of the Remain Campaign, called it right on the very first day.
Brexit, he said, will lead to wages going up.
True. But unless matched by higher productivity, it will cause general inflation. So the end result will be a redistribution of real income from those in occupations not in competition with EU migrants to those who are. The country as a whole won't be better off.
Ultimately the only ways to be better paid as a country are to increase our productivity, or reduce the real prices we pay, for example by deregulation.
If it redistributes income from those not working to those who are then that's an improvement in its own right
But there's no reason why productivity wouldn't rise. Incentivised to do so, people will invest in improvements and technology to aid productivity.
You'd have two effects. On the one hand there would be a substitution effect, as firms are incentivised to substitute capital for Labour. But as I explained below that's probably limited. On the other, there would be an income effect, as business as a whole is less profitable.
The idea that we can pay-rise ourselves to prosperity is as seductive as the idea that we can tax and spend ourselves to prosperity, and just as accurate. The only way to increase prosperity overall is to increase productivity.
Mrs Thatcher made a really good speech on this. I'll try and did it out.
Thatcher was right that you can't buck the market to get pay rises faster than the market can cope with.
But we absolutely can if we have full employment and productivity growth.
There was real wage growth over the eighties and justifiably so. It's justifiable today to have the market increase wages too.
Wage growth is usually bad. Growth in the standard of living, usually good.
Wage growth is fine as long as it doesn't outpace productivity growth. Because then it has to lead eventually to inflation.
I wasn't unaware of the dynamic you suggest. I'll stick to my assertion.
I'm hearing reports that the Housing Market is coming to a screeching halt. Causes
- End of Stamp Duty holiday has finished any rushed transactions, and now affecting sentiment. - Dip after the rush of the last week or two whilst backoffices catch up. - Dawning realisation that some taxes are coming down the road. - Delaying until Oct 23 to find out.
If you are buying, now may be a good time to deal.
Interesting.
I suspect people are starting to factor in interest rate rises coming down the road.
What impact do people think a 4-5% interest rate would have on average house prices?
I recon -30%, possibly more.
I think even a 0.25% or 0.5% rise would send chills through the housing market
Am suspicious that a certain proportion of mortgage holders aren't actually aware interest rates can rise.
Anyone under 35, has never really known anything except interest rates on the floor.
Just come across this article which backs this up.
Not so much the article.which explains very basic facts about mortgages and interest rates that no one who bought a house before 2008 would be unaware of. But the fact they felt it needed writing at all.
I like this bit:
If you have a £500,000 mortgage your monthly repayments, over 25 years, will be £1,883pcm at one per cent.
That's about double the average house price in the UK.
We're all aware that house prices are higher in London but that reveals the absurdity of it.
Well yes. That's a tad over £22.5k per year on your mortgage. Average UK income is £29.6k. BEFORE TAX!! And that's at one percent.
The thing about Cressida Dick is that, even if we make the heroic assumption that she is good at her job, she has nonetheless lost the confidence of the public. That will in itself harm policing and make reform harder. She should resign and let someone new take over.
But the calls for her to resign are not quite that unaminous. 38% of the public; according to a poll reported this morning. It isn't a 'george floyd' moment. There is a sense of public digust at an absolutely terrible crime, but this does not necessarily translate in to a lack of confidence in the police. You would need to dig deeper in to public opinion before arriving at that conclusion.
Not a fan of Cressida Dick but I don't know why she should resign because of what someone else did.
Because culture is set from the top.
There is also the matter of her interfering in the Morgan investigation to frustrate the inquest.
And because she does not seem to understand the extent of the problems the Met has and is not the person to start the process of putting them right.
I'm hearing reports that the Housing Market is coming to a screeching halt. Causes
- End of Stamp Duty holiday has finished any rushed transactions, and now affecting sentiment. - Dip after the rush of the last week or two whilst backoffices catch up. - Dawning realisation that some taxes are coming down the road. - Delaying until Oct 23 to find out.
If you are buying, now may be a good time to deal.
Interesting.
I suspect people are starting to factor in interest rate rises coming down the road.
What impact do people think a 4-5% interest rate would have on average house prices?
I recon -30%, possibly more.
I think even a 0.25% or 0.5% rise would send chills through the housing market
Am suspicious that a certain proportion of mortgage holders aren't actually aware interest rates can rise.
Anyone under 35, has never really known anything except interest rates on the floor.
Just come across this article which backs this up.
Not so much the article.which explains very basic facts about mortgages and interest rates that no one who bought a house before 2008 would be unaware of. But the fact they felt it needed writing at all.
I like this bit:
If you have a £500,000 mortgage your monthly repayments, over 25 years, will be £1,883pcm at one per cent.
That's about double the average house price in the UK.
We're all aware that house prices are higher in London but that reveals the absurdity of it.
It is the rent for a 2 bedroom flat though, so an economic prospect, at least until rates go up.
Is Brexit causing special or unusual glitches in the UK? Probably. But as the IRISH Times says, Brexit as a problem is dwarfed by this planet-wide turbulence. Brexit is not causing the power cuts across swathes of China
But Brexit can and will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. It's going to have to be continuously defended for decades. It has already become synonymous with 'shit'.
In your febrile brain, perhaps. In the minds of others brexit might become associated with, say, higher wages, or more jobs.
Also, this won’t go on for decades. Already many people roll their eyes when Brexit is mentioned - in the real world, not Twitter or PB. In 5 years it will be an issue raised by embittered cranks, as other newer problems, disasters, developments, opportunities intervene
LOL
;pre vote we were harried by the nailed on prospect of mass unemployment should we vote to Leave.
Post vote we have a shortage of labour
It's not just Brexit though. The financial crash, the spending cuts after that, Covid, and probably other things have all been predicted to lead to "X million unemployed". The doom-mongers have been consistently and wildly wrong. For reasons I can't even understand the UK has a remarkably resiliant labour market. You would think eventually the talking heads would look back and think "I'll shut my gob" but they don't ever seem to learn from their dismal track record of forecasting.
I don't remmber the X million unemployed warning, but I do remember the reduction in trade warning, leading to employment issues, and prices going up.
I also remember the "we have all the cards", "EU falling over themselves to trade with us", and "there's no reason we could have a trade deal from day one",
No one, on either side, predicted a Labour shortage. Brexit moves in mysterious ways. Who dare question the Will of Brexit? It will provide.
Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of the Remain Campaign, called it right on the very first day.
Brexit, he said, will lead to wages going up.
True. But unless matched by higher productivity, it will cause general inflation. So the end result will be a redistribution of real income from those in occupations not in competition with EU migrants to those who are. The country as a whole won't be better off.
Ultimately the only ways to be better paid as a country are to increase our productivity, or reduce the real prices we pay, for example by deregulation.
If it redistributes income from those not working to those who are then that's an improvement in its own right
But there's no reason why productivity wouldn't rise. Incentivised to do so, people will invest in improvements and technology to aid productivity.
You'd have two effects. On the one hand there would be a substitution effect, as firms are incentivised to substitute capital for Labour. But as I explained below that's probably limited. On the other, there would be an income effect, as business as a whole is less profitable.
The idea that we can pay-rise ourselves to prosperity is as seductive as the idea that we can tax and spend ourselves to prosperity, and just as accurate. The only way to increase prosperity overall is to increase productivity.
Mrs Thatcher made a really good speech on this. I'll try and did it out.
Thatcher was right that you can't buck the market to get pay rises faster than the market can cope with.
But we absolutely can if we have full employment and productivity growth.
There was real wage growth over the eighties and justifiably so. It's justifiable today to have the market increase wages too.
Wage growth is usually bad. Growth in the standard of living, usually good.
How do you get standard in living growth without wage growth?
Especially when we've had decades of high inflation in costs?
Again housing costs which have had rocketing inflation form a higher proportion of household expenditure than food costs do or did in the 70s too.
Wages are just a number. Unfortunately inflation has long hindered understanding of what it is we barter - a day's pay. That's it.
Is Brexit causing special or unusual glitches in the UK? Probably. But as the IRISH Times says, Brexit as a problem is dwarfed by this planet-wide turbulence. Brexit is not causing the power cuts across swathes of China
But Brexit can and will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. It's going to have to be continuously defended for decades. It has already become synonymous with 'shit'.
In your febrile brain, perhaps. In the minds of others brexit might become associated with, say, higher wages, or more jobs.
Also, this won’t go on for decades. Already many people roll their eyes when Brexit is mentioned - in the real world, not Twitter or PB. In 5 years it will be an issue raised by embittered cranks, as other newer problems, disasters, developments, opportunities intervene
LOL
;pre vote we were harried by the nailed on prospect of mass unemployment should we vote to Leave.
Post vote we have a shortage of labour
It's not just Brexit though. The financial crash, the spending cuts after that, Covid, and probably other things have all been predicted to lead to "X million unemployed". The doom-mongers have been consistently and wildly wrong. For reasons I can't even understand the UK has a remarkably resiliant labour market. You would think eventually the talking heads would look back and think "I'll shut my gob" but they don't ever seem to learn from their dismal track record of forecasting.
I don't remmber the X million unemployed warning, but I do remember the reduction in trade warning, leading to employment issues, and prices going up.
I also remember the "we have all the cards", "EU falling over themselves to trade with us", and "there's no reason we could have a trade deal from day one",
No one, on either side, predicted a Labour shortage. Brexit moves in mysterious ways. Who dare question the Will of Brexit? It will provide.
Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of the Remain Campaign, called it right on the very first day.
Brexit, he said, will lead to wages going up.
True. But unless matched by higher productivity, it will cause general inflation. So the end result will be a redistribution of real income from those in occupations not in competition with EU migrants to those who are. The country as a whole won't be better off.
Ultimately the only ways to be better paid as a country are to increase our productivity, or reduce the real prices we pay, for example by deregulation.
If it redistributes income from those not working to those who are then that's an improvement in its own right
But there's no reason why productivity wouldn't rise. Incentivised to do so, people will invest in improvements and technology to aid productivity.
You'd have two effects. On the one hand there would be a substitution effect, as firms are incentivised to substitute capital for Labour. But as I explained below that's probably limited. On the other, there would be an income effect, as business as a whole is less profitable.
The idea that we can pay-rise ourselves to prosperity is as seductive as the idea that we can tax and spend ourselves to prosperity, and just as accurate. The only way to increase prosperity overall is to increase productivity.
Mrs Thatcher made a really good speech on this. I'll try and did it out.
Thatcher was right that you can't buck the market to get pay rises faster than the market can cope with.
But we absolutely can if we have full employment and productivity growth.
There was real wage growth over the eighties and justifiably so. It's justifiable today to have the market increase wages too.
Wage growth is usually bad. Growth in the standard of living, usually good.
Wage growth is fine as long as it doesn't outpace productivity growth. Because then it has to lead eventually to inflation.
How about house price growth ?
If that exceeds wage growth you end up struggling to get a workforce.
I don't have an opinion about British petrol shortages but the political point is that even if everybody thinks it's Brexit that's doing it, there will be an indignant argument about whether it's 80% Brexit or merely 65% Brexit, and the people who liked Brexit will feel like Boris is sticking up for them against the insufferable 80%ers. There are more than 40% of these people, and in the British system 40% wins you the election. I don't really have any good ideas for what Labour can do about this.
Yup. As someone upthread said, Brexit is a religion. 40% are fundamentalists. Under FPTP, that means a theocracy.
The slightly more complicated, boring but possibly true suggestion is that a number of groups of all shades of opinion have, so to speak, transferred religious instincts to other things. Religions can be marginalised but not human nature, which is highly religious in many cases.
The way the hard left, the totalitarian right, some Brexiteers, some Remainers and no doubt others act towards criticism and make their criticisms feels more like a religious than a political response. Being wrong is not an option, nor is compromise or sensible discussion.
But these are activists. Most people don't belong to quasi religious politics; they keep quiet (mostly) except on General Election day.
I think you are right on this. However, Brexit is a far more widespread belief system than the others you mention. And 40% don't seem susceptible to doubt. Whether they loudly proclaim it or not. And whether or not it produces the benefits they were expecting. Or indeed any at all. It is my opinion that this is why the government remains ahead, and will be re-elected. Whatsoever happens.
I'm hearing reports that the Housing Market is coming to a screeching halt. Causes
- End of Stamp Duty holiday has finished any rushed transactions, and now affecting sentiment. - Dip after the rush of the last week or two whilst backoffices catch up. - Dawning realisation that some taxes are coming down the road. - Delaying until Oct 23 to find out.
If you are buying, now may be a good time to deal.
Interesting.
I suspect people are starting to factor in interest rate rises coming down the road.
What impact do people think a 4-5% interest rate would have on average house prices?
I recon -30%, possibly more.
I think even a 0.25% or 0.5% rise would send chills through the housing market
Am suspicious that a certain proportion of mortgage holders aren't actually aware interest rates can rise.
Anyone under 35, has never really known anything except interest rates on the floor.
Just come across this article which backs this up.
Not so much the article.which explains very basic facts about mortgages and interest rates that no one who bought a house before 2008 would be unaware of. But the fact they felt it needed writing at all.
I like this bit:
If you have a £500,000 mortgage your monthly repayments, over 25 years, will be £1,883pcm at one per cent.
That's about double the average house price in the UK.
We're all aware that house prices are higher in London but that reveals the absurdity of it.
It is, however, roughly the top of the level where you get a first time buyer subsidy on your new house.
I'm hearing reports that the Housing Market is coming to a screeching halt. Causes
- End of Stamp Duty holiday has finished any rushed transactions, and now affecting sentiment. - Dip after the rush of the last week or two whilst backoffices catch up. - Dawning realisation that some taxes are coming down the road. - Delaying until Oct 23 to find out.
If you are buying, now may be a good time to deal.
Interesting.
I suspect people are starting to factor in interest rate rises coming down the road.
What impact do people think a 4-5% interest rate would have on average house prices?
I recon -30%, possibly more.
I think even a 0.25% or 0.5% rise would send chills through the housing market
Am suspicious that a certain proportion of mortgage holders aren't actually aware interest rates can rise.
Anyone under 35, has never really known anything except interest rates on the floor.
Just come across this article which backs this up.
Not so much the article.which explains very basic facts about mortgages and interest rates that no one who bought a house before 2008 would be unaware of. But the fact they felt it needed writing at all.
I like this bit:
If you have a £500,000 mortgage your monthly repayments, over 25 years, will be £1,883pcm at one per cent.
That's about double the average house price in the UK.
We're all aware that house prices are higher in London but that reveals the absurdity of it.
Well yes. That's a tad over £22.5k per year on your mortgage. Average UK income is £29.6k. BEFORE TAX!! And that's at one percent.
Yes but you wouldn't get a mortgage of more than 20 times income, at least I hope not!
I don't have an opinion about British petrol shortages but the political point is that even if everybody thinks it's Brexit that's doing it, there will be an indignant argument about whether it's 80% Brexit or merely 65% Brexit, and the people who liked Brexit will feel like Boris is sticking up for them against the insufferable 80%ers. There are more than 40% of these people, and in the British system 40% wins you the election. I don't really have any good ideas for what Labour can do about this.
Yup. As someone upthread said, Brexit is a religion. 40% are fundamentalists. Under FPTP, that means a theocracy.
The slightly more complicated, boring but possibly true suggestion is that a number of groups of all shades of opinion have, so to speak, transferred religious instincts to other things. Religions can be marginalised but not human nature, which is highly religious in many cases.
The way the hard left, the totalitarian right, some Brexiteers, some Remainers and no doubt others act towards criticism and make their criticisms feels more like a religious than a political response. Being wrong is not an option, nor is compromise or sensible discussion.
But these are activists. Most people don't belong to quasi religious politics; they keep quiet (mostly) except on General Election day.
I'm hearing reports that the Housing Market is coming to a screeching halt. Causes
- End of Stamp Duty holiday has finished any rushed transactions, and now affecting sentiment. - Dip after the rush of the last week or two whilst backoffices catch up. - Dawning realisation that some taxes are coming down the road. - Delaying until Oct 23 to find out.
If you are buying, now may be a good time to deal.
Interesting.
I suspect people are starting to factor in interest rate rises coming down the road.
What impact do people think a 4-5% interest rate would have on average house prices?
I recon -30%, possibly more.
I think even a 0.25% or 0.5% rise would send chills through the housing market
Am suspicious that a certain proportion of mortgage holders aren't actually aware interest rates can rise.
Anyone under 35, has never really known anything except interest rates on the floor.
Just come across this article which backs this up.
Not so much the article.which explains very basic facts about mortgages and interest rates that no one who bought a house before 2008 would be unaware of. But the fact they felt it needed writing at all.
I like this bit:
If you have a £500,000 mortgage your monthly repayments, over 25 years, will be £1,883pcm at one per cent.
That's about double the average house price in the UK.
We're all aware that house prices are higher in London but that reveals the absurdity of it.
It is, however, roughly the top of the level where you get a first time buyer subsidy on your new house.
Raising an obvious question. Why the sweet F should every bugger else be subsidising folk who can afford that? Indeed. Why should those renting be paying a levy so that others can own? Unlevelling up in action.
Drove home from work on Friday up the A167 to North Durham from Newton Aycliffe. Passed several garages. No queues, handful of cars on the forecourt. Seems to be over for the time being in the north east.
Is Brexit causing special or unusual glitches in the UK? Probably. But as the IRISH Times says, Brexit as a problem is dwarfed by this planet-wide turbulence. Brexit is not causing the power cuts across swathes of China
But Brexit can and will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. It's going to have to be continuously defended for decades. It has already become synonymous with 'shit'.
In your febrile brain, perhaps. In the minds of others brexit might become associated with, say, higher wages, or more jobs.
Also, this won’t go on for decades. Already many people roll their eyes when Brexit is mentioned - in the real world, not Twitter or PB. In 5 years it will be an issue raised by embittered cranks, as other newer problems, disasters, developments, opportunities intervene
LOL
;pre vote we were harried by the nailed on prospect of mass unemployment should we vote to Leave.
Post vote we have a shortage of labour
It's not just Brexit though. The financial crash, the spending cuts after that, Covid, and probably other things have all been predicted to lead to "X million unemployed". The doom-mongers have been consistently and wildly wrong. For reasons I can't even understand the UK has a remarkably resiliant labour market. You would think eventually the talking heads would look back and think "I'll shut my gob" but they don't ever seem to learn from their dismal track record of forecasting.
I don't remmber the X million unemployed warning, but I do remember the reduction in trade warning, leading to employment issues, and prices going up.
I also remember the "we have all the cards", "EU falling over themselves to trade with us", and "there's no reason we could have a trade deal from day one",
No one, on either side, predicted a Labour shortage. Brexit moves in mysterious ways. Who dare question the Will of Brexit? It will provide.
Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of the Remain Campaign, called it right on the very first day.
Brexit, he said, will lead to wages going up.
It was the whole reason I voted for Leave, and I said so probably ten thousand times on here
Is Brexit causing special or unusual glitches in the UK? Probably. But as the IRISH Times says, Brexit as a problem is dwarfed by this planet-wide turbulence. Brexit is not causing the power cuts across swathes of China
But Brexit can and will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. It's going to have to be continuously defended for decades. It has already become synonymous with 'shit'.
In your febrile brain, perhaps. In the minds of others brexit might become associated with, say, higher wages, or more jobs.
Also, this won’t go on for decades. Already many people roll their eyes when Brexit is mentioned - in the real world, not Twitter or PB. In 5 years it will be an issue raised by embittered cranks, as other newer problems, disasters, developments, opportunities intervene
LOL
;pre vote we were harried by the nailed on prospect of mass unemployment should we vote to Leave.
Post vote we have a shortage of labour
It's not just Brexit though. The financial crash, the spending cuts after that, Covid, and probably other things have all been predicted to lead to "X million unemployed". The doom-mongers have been consistently and wildly wrong. For reasons I can't even understand the UK has a remarkably resiliant labour market. You would think eventually the talking heads would look back and think "I'll shut my gob" but they don't ever seem to learn from their dismal track record of forecasting.
I don't remmber the X million unemployed warning, but I do remember the reduction in trade warning, leading to employment issues, and prices going up.
I also remember the "we have all the cards", "EU falling over themselves to trade with us", and "there's no reason we could have a trade deal from day one",
No one, on either side, predicted a Labour shortage. Brexit moves in mysterious ways. Who dare question the Will of Brexit? It will provide.
Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of the Remain Campaign, called it right on the very first day.
Brexit, he said, will lead to wages going up.
True. But unless matched by higher productivity, it will cause general inflation. So the end result will be a redistribution of real income from those in occupations not in competition with EU migrants to those who are. The country as a whole won't be better off.
Ultimately the only ways to be better paid as a country are to increase our productivity, or reduce the real prices we pay, for example by deregulation.
If it redistributes income from those not working to those who are then that's an improvement in its own right
But there's no reason why productivity wouldn't rise. Incentivised to do so, people will invest in improvements and technology to aid productivity.
You'd have two effects. On the one hand there would be a substitution effect, as firms are incentivised to substitute capital for Labour. But as I explained below that's probably limited. On the other, there would be an income effect, as business as a whole is less profitable.
The idea that we can pay-rise ourselves to prosperity is as seductive as the idea that we can tax and spend ourselves to prosperity, and just as accurate. The only way to increase prosperity overall is to increase productivity.
Mrs Thatcher made a really good speech on this. I'll try and did it out.
Thatcher was right that you can't buck the market to get pay rises faster than the market can cope with.
But we absolutely can if we have full employment and productivity growth.
There was real wage growth over the eighties and justifiably so. It's justifiable today to have the market increase wages too.
Wage growth is usually bad. Growth in the standard of living, usually good.
How do you get standard in living growth without wage growth?
Especially when we've had decades of high inflation in costs?
Again housing costs which have had rocketing inflation form a higher proportion of household expenditure than food costs do or did in the 70s too.
Wages are just a number. Unfortunately inflation has long hindered understanding of what it is we barter - a day's pay. That's it.
Wage inflation higher than cost inflation is a standards of living increase.
Wage inflation lower than cost inflation is a standards of living decline.
For too long cost inflation has been higher than wage inflation by devaluing the value of a day's pay. That needs to be reversed.
There’s a quiet panic happening in the US economy. Medical labs are running out of supplies like pipettes and petri dishes, summer camps and restaurants are having trouble getting food, and automobile, paint and electronics firms are curtailing production because they can’t get semiconductors. One man told me he couldn’t get a Whopper meal at a Burger King in Florida, as there was a sign saying “Sorry, no french fries with any order. We have no potatoes.”
Drove home from work on Friday up the A167 to North Durham from Newton Aycliffe. Passed several garages. No queues, handful of cars on the forecourt. Seems to be over for the time being in the north east.
Never started round here. Tyne Valley. The geographical spread is, however, a point of interest.
The thing about Cressida Dick is that, even if we make the heroic assumption that she is good at her job, she has nonetheless lost the confidence of the public. That will in itself harm policing and make reform harder. She should resign and let someone new take over.
But the calls for her to resign are not quite that unaminous. 38% of the public; according to a poll reported this morning. It isn't a 'george floyd' moment. There is a sense of public digust at an absolutely terrible crime, but this does not necessarily translate in to a lack of confidence in the police. You would need to dig deeper in to public opinion before arriving at that conclusion.
Not a fan of Cressida Dick but I don't know why she should resign because of what someone else did.
Because it is about more than a single incident for starters, but about her leadership qualities, particularly the ability to deal with systemic issues which, thus far, she has not dealt with so why would she now be able to?
Is Brexit causing special or unusual glitches in the UK? Probably. But as the IRISH Times says, Brexit as a problem is dwarfed by this planet-wide turbulence. Brexit is not causing the power cuts across swathes of China
But Brexit can and will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. It's going to have to be continuously defended for decades. It has already become synonymous with 'shit'.
In your febrile brain, perhaps. In the minds of others brexit might become associated with, say, higher wages, or more jobs.
Also, this won’t go on for decades. Already many people roll their eyes when Brexit is mentioned - in the real world, not Twitter or PB. In 5 years it will be an issue raised by embittered cranks, as other newer problems, disasters, developments, opportunities intervene
LOL
;pre vote we were harried by the nailed on prospect of mass unemployment should we vote to Leave.
Post vote we have a shortage of labour
It's not just Brexit though. The financial crash, the spending cuts after that, Covid, and probably other things have all been predicted to lead to "X million unemployed". The doom-mongers have been consistently and wildly wrong. For reasons I can't even understand the UK has a remarkably resiliant labour market. You would think eventually the talking heads would look back and think "I'll shut my gob" but they don't ever seem to learn from their dismal track record of forecasting.
I don't remmber the X million unemployed warning, but I do remember the reduction in trade warning, leading to employment issues, and prices going up.
I also remember the "we have all the cards", "EU falling over themselves to trade with us", and "there's no reason we could have a trade deal from day one",
No one, on either side, predicted a Labour shortage. Brexit moves in mysterious ways. Who dare question the Will of Brexit? It will provide.
Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of the Remain Campaign, called it right on the very first day.
Brexit, he said, will lead to wages going up.
True. But unless matched by higher productivity, it will cause general inflation. So the end result will be a redistribution of real income from those in occupations not in competition with EU migrants to those who are. The country as a whole won't be better off.
Ultimately the only ways to be better paid as a country are to increase our productivity, or reduce the real prices we pay, for example by deregulation.
If it redistributes income from those not working to those who are then that's an improvement in its own right
But there's no reason why productivity wouldn't rise. Incentivised to do so, people will invest in improvements and technology to aid productivity.
You'd have two effects. On the one hand there would be a substitution effect, as firms are incentivised to substitute capital for Labour. But as I explained below that's probably limited. On the other, there would be an income effect, as business as a whole is less profitable.
The idea that we can pay-rise ourselves to prosperity is as seductive as the idea that we can tax and spend ourselves to prosperity, and just as accurate. The only way to increase prosperity overall is to increase productivity.
Mrs Thatcher made a really good speech on this. I'll try and did it out.
Thatcher was right that you can't buck the market to get pay rises faster than the market can cope with.
But we absolutely can if we have full employment and productivity growth.
There was real wage growth over the eighties and justifiably so. It's justifiable today to have the market increase wages too.
Wage growth is usually bad. Growth in the standard of living, usually good.
How do you get standard in living growth without wage growth?
Especially when we've had decades of high inflation in costs?
Again housing costs which have had rocketing inflation form a higher proportion of household expenditure than food costs do or did in the 70s too.
Wages are just a number. Unfortunately inflation has long hindered understanding of what it is we barter - a day's pay. That's it.
Wage inflation higher than cost inflation is a standards of living increase.
Wage inflation lower than cost inflation is a standards of living decline.
For too long cost inflation has been higher than wage inflation by devaluing the value of a day's pay. That needs to be reversed.
For a very long time (in the UK) the standards of living have increased. It's not about 'sweeping up' being better paid, but it is about many more people doing more productive jobs. You're nailed on to know this.
Is Brexit causing special or unusual glitches in the UK? Probably. But as the IRISH Times says, Brexit as a problem is dwarfed by this planet-wide turbulence. Brexit is not causing the power cuts across swathes of China
But Brexit can and will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. It's going to have to be continuously defended for decades. It has already become synonymous with 'shit'.
In your febrile brain, perhaps. In the minds of others brexit might become associated with, say, higher wages, or more jobs.
Also, this won’t go on for decades. Already many people roll their eyes when Brexit is mentioned - in the real world, not Twitter or PB. In 5 years it will be an issue raised by embittered cranks, as other newer problems, disasters, developments, opportunities intervene
LOL
;pre vote we were harried by the nailed on prospect of mass unemployment should we vote to Leave.
Post vote we have a shortage of labour
It's not just Brexit though. The financial crash, the spending cuts after that, Covid, and probably other things have all been predicted to lead to "X million unemployed". The doom-mongers have been consistently and wildly wrong. For reasons I can't even understand the UK has a remarkably resiliant labour market. You would think eventually the talking heads would look back and think "I'll shut my gob" but they don't ever seem to learn from their dismal track record of forecasting.
I don't remmber the X million unemployed warning, but I do remember the reduction in trade warning, leading to employment issues, and prices going up.
I also remember the "we have all the cards", "EU falling over themselves to trade with us", and "there's no reason we could have a trade deal from day one",
No one, on either side, predicted a Labour shortage. Brexit moves in mysterious ways. Who dare question the Will of Brexit? It will provide.
Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of the Remain Campaign, called it right on the very first day.
Brexit, he said, will lead to wages going up.
True. But unless matched by higher productivity, it will cause general inflation. So the end result will be a redistribution of real income from those in occupations not in competition with EU migrants to those who are. The country as a whole won't be better off.
Ultimately the only ways to be better paid as a country are to increase our productivity, or reduce the real prices we pay, for example by deregulation.
If it redistributes income from those not working to those who are then that's an improvement in its own right
But there's no reason why productivity wouldn't rise. Incentivised to do so, people will invest in improvements and technology to aid productivity.
You'd have two effects. On the one hand there would be a substitution effect, as firms are incentivised to substitute capital for Labour. But as I explained below that's probably limited. On the other, there would be an income effect, as business as a whole is less profitable.
The idea that we can pay-rise ourselves to prosperity is as seductive as the idea that we can tax and spend ourselves to prosperity, and just as accurate. The only way to increase prosperity overall is to increase productivity.
Mrs Thatcher made a really good speech on this. I'll try and did it out.
Thatcher was right that you can't buck the market to get pay rises faster than the market can cope with.
But we absolutely can if we have full employment and productivity growth.
There was real wage growth over the eighties and justifiably so. It's justifiable today to have the market increase wages too.
Wage growth is usually bad. Growth in the standard of living, usually good.
How do you get standard in living growth without wage growth?
Especially when we've had decades of high inflation in costs?
Again housing costs which have had rocketing inflation form a higher proportion of household expenditure than food costs do or did in the 70s too.
Wages are just a number. Unfortunately inflation has long hindered understanding of what it is we barter - a day's pay. That's it.
Wage inflation higher than cost inflation is a standards of living increase.
Wage inflation lower than cost inflation is a standards of living decline.
For too long cost inflation has been higher than wage inflation by devaluing the value of a day's pay. That needs to be reversed.
For a very long time (in the UK) the standards of living have increased. It's not about 'sweeping up' being better paid, but it is about many more people doing more productive jobs. You're nailed on to know this.
Standards of living have increased so long as you don't need to pay for your housing, absolutely agreed.
For those who do need to, inflation is growing faster than wages.
I'm hearing reports that the Housing Market is coming to a screeching halt. Causes
- End of Stamp Duty holiday has finished any rushed transactions, and now affecting sentiment. - Dip after the rush of the last week or two whilst backoffices catch up. - Dawning realisation that some taxes are coming down the road. - Delaying until Oct 23 to find out.
If you are buying, now may be a good time to deal.
Interesting.
I suspect people are starting to factor in interest rate rises coming down the road.
What impact do people think a 4-5% interest rate would have on average house prices?
I recon -30%, possibly more.
I think even a 0.25% or 0.5% rise would send chills through the housing market
And the market is pricing in rate hikes up from 0.1% to 0.75% next year.
I can only hope this has a negative effect on the housing market!
There’s a quiet panic happening in the US economy. Medical labs are running out of supplies like pipettes and petri dishes, summer camps and restaurants are having trouble getting food, and automobile, paint and electronics firms are curtailing production because they can’t get semiconductors. One man told me he couldn’t get a Whopper meal at a Burger King in Florida, as there was a sign saying “Sorry, no french fries with any order. We have no potatoes.”
Bloody Brexit!
“ Then there’s trucking. Talk to most businesspeople who make or move things and they will complain about the driver shortage. This too is a story of deregulation. In the 1970s, the end of public rate-setting forced trucking firms to compete against each other to offer lower shipping prices. The way they did this was by lowering pay to their drivers. Trucking on a firm-level became unpredictable and financially fragile, so for drivers schedules became unsustainable, even if the pay during boom times could be high. Today, even though pay is going up, the scheduling is crushing drivers. The result is a shortage of truckers”
I don't have an opinion about British petrol shortages but the political point is that even if everybody thinks it's Brexit that's doing it, there will be an indignant argument about whether it's 80% Brexit or merely 65% Brexit, and the people who liked Brexit will feel like Boris is sticking up for them against the insufferable 80%ers. There are more than 40% of these people, and in the British system 40% wins you the election. I don't really have any good ideas for what Labour can do about this.
Yup. As someone upthread said, Brexit is a religion. 40% are fundamentalists. Under FPTP, that means a theocracy.
There’s a quiet panic happening in the US economy. Medical labs are running out of supplies like pipettes and petri dishes, summer camps and restaurants are having trouble getting food, and automobile, paint and electronics firms are curtailing production because they can’t get semiconductors. One man told me he couldn’t get a Whopper meal at a Burger King in Florida, as there was a sign saying “Sorry, no french fries with any order. We have no potatoes.”
Bloody Brexit!
“ Then there’s trucking. Talk to most businesspeople who make or move things and they will complain about the driver shortage. This too is a story of deregulation. In the 1970s, the end of public rate-setting forced trucking firms to compete against each other to offer lower shipping prices. The way they did this was by lowering pay to their drivers. Trucking on a firm-level became unpredictable and financially fragile, so for drivers schedules became unsustainable, even if the pay during boom times could be high. Today, even though pay is going up, the scheduling is crushing drivers. The result is a shortage of truckers”
This is very true. So is the answer more deregulation or less? The government seems to think both and neither.
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
Sounds dodgy af
Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
IPSOS-MORI diversifying their income streams. Most enterprising.
I don't have an opinion about British petrol shortages but the political point is that even if everybody thinks it's Brexit that's doing it, there will be an indignant argument about whether it's 80% Brexit or merely 65% Brexit, and the people who liked Brexit will feel like Boris is sticking up for them against the insufferable 80%ers. There are more than 40% of these people, and in the British system 40% wins you the election. I don't really have any good ideas for what Labour can do about this.
Yup. As someone upthread said, Brexit is a religion. 40% are fundamentalists. Under FPTP, that means a theocracy.
Are you exaggerating slightly?
Yes. For effect. Leavers seemed very anxious to insist FBPE was also a religion (which it is), rather than denying it.
There’s a quiet panic happening in the US economy. Medical labs are running out of supplies like pipettes and petri dishes, summer camps and restaurants are having trouble getting food, and automobile, paint and electronics firms are curtailing production because they can’t get semiconductors. One man told me he couldn’t get a Whopper meal at a Burger King in Florida, as there was a sign saying “Sorry, no french fries with any order. We have no potatoes.”
Bloody Brexit!
“ Then there’s trucking. Talk to most businesspeople who make or move things and they will complain about the driver shortage. This too is a story of deregulation. In the 1970s, the end of public rate-setting forced trucking firms to compete against each other to offer lower shipping prices. The way they did this was by lowering pay to their drivers. Trucking on a firm-level became unpredictable and financially fragile, so for drivers schedules became unsustainable, even if the pay during boom times could be high. Today, even though pay is going up, the scheduling is crushing drivers. The result is a shortage of truckers”
The bit they left out is where they found the extra truckers from in the US. Yes, exactly what you'd expect.
Rod McKenzie, managing director of the Road Haulage Association, said that a promise by ministers a week ago of three-month visas for 5,000 drivers, “simply does not work.”
makes you wonder why the RHA didnt do something about it four years ago
One interesting thing is that we didn't have many EU HGV drivers here in 2015, so they weren't driving down wages.
The big drop is since 2019.
Cumulative effect - 1% here and 1% there and soon you're dealing with substantial numbers.
Especially if its having an effect on the number of younger British people becoming drivers.
An ageing workforce in any economic sector is a sign of fundamental problems.
Depends, the causality could be the drop in younger driver intake sucking in outside labour, like with farm food picking.
Edit: been very impressed (in the wrong way) with the reportage coming out in recent months on the way [further edit] driving staff are treated universally in Europe, including the UK.
Likewise with meat production:
Every inch of Margot’s body hurt from the unrelenting work. Her hands bled from blisters that burst as she repeatedly hauled carcasses, but she would wait until she got home to sterilise her wounds with ammonia. “If you didn’t do your job well, you’d be pushed – they didn’t care if your hands were full of blood,” she says.
This wasn’t the life Margot* imagined when she left her job in a clothes factory near her home village in Romania in search of better prospects for her young family in western Europe. She thought labour conditions in the Netherlands – where she worked for three years in a meat factory – would be much more favourable than in her home country. “I didn’t expect it to be so awful.”
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
Sign up. Call the police about something. When they aren't looking, lob the tracker in the back of their patrol car.
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
Sign up. Call the police about something. When they aren't looking, lob the tracker in the back of their patrol car.
Er, that means that the chaps pretending to be IPSOS-MORI are most likely to burgle Isam when the police are furthest away and least available.
The thing about Cressida Dick is that, even if we make the heroic assumption that she is good at her job, she has nonetheless lost the confidence of the public. That will in itself harm policing and make reform harder. She should resign and let someone new take over.
But the calls for her to resign are not quite that unaminous. 38% of the public; according to a poll reported this morning. It isn't a 'george floyd' moment. There is a sense of public digust at an absolutely terrible crime, but this does not necessarily translate in to a lack of confidence in the police. You would need to dig deeper in to public opinion before arriving at that conclusion.
Not a fan of Cressida Dick but I don't know why she should resign because of what someone else did.
Because it is about more than a single incident for starters, but about her leadership qualities, particularly the ability to deal with systemic issues which, thus far, she has not dealt with so why would she now be able to?
She should resign*, as should every single person in the line of management down to his immediate superior.
*As unDictator of Britain, "You have been resigned" will mean that "You have been flung into the Channel by a trebuchet, manned** by evolved piscenes" **Personed, whatever
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
Sign up. Call the police about something. When they aren't looking, lob the tracker in the back of their patrol car.
Er, that means that the chaps pretending to be IPSOS-MORI are most likely to burgle Isam when the police are furthest away and least available.
There’s a quiet panic happening in the US economy. Medical labs are running out of supplies like pipettes and petri dishes, summer camps and restaurants are having trouble getting food, and automobile, paint and electronics firms are curtailing production because they can’t get semiconductors. One man told me he couldn’t get a Whopper meal at a Burger King in Florida, as there was a sign saying “Sorry, no french fries with any order. We have no potatoes.”
Bloody Brexit!
“ Then there’s trucking. Talk to most businesspeople who make or move things and they will complain about the driver shortage. This too is a story of deregulation. In the 1970s, the end of public rate-setting forced trucking firms to compete against each other to offer lower shipping prices. The way they did this was by lowering pay to their drivers. Trucking on a firm-level became unpredictable and financially fragile, so for drivers schedules became unsustainable, even if the pay during boom times could be high. Today, even though pay is going up, the scheduling is crushing drivers. The result is a shortage of truckers”
The bit they left out is where they found the extra truckers from in the US. Yes, exactly what you'd expect.
Mostly prison according to a friend of mine there as it's about the only job you can do with a felony conviction.
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
Sounds dodgy af
Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
I tweeted ISPOS-MORI to see if they knew anything about it. I was going to warn people on the local facebook page, but thought I had better check first
Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
There’s a quiet panic happening in the US economy. Medical labs are running out of supplies like pipettes and petri dishes, summer camps and restaurants are having trouble getting food, and automobile, paint and electronics firms are curtailing production because they can’t get semiconductors. One man told me he couldn’t get a Whopper meal at a Burger King in Florida, as there was a sign saying “Sorry, no french fries with any order. We have no potatoes.”
Bloody Brexit!
“ Then there’s trucking. Talk to most businesspeople who make or move things and they will complain about the driver shortage. This too is a story of deregulation. In the 1970s, the end of public rate-setting forced trucking firms to compete against each other to offer lower shipping prices. The way they did this was by lowering pay to their drivers. Trucking on a firm-level became unpredictable and financially fragile, so for drivers schedules became unsustainable, even if the pay during boom times could be high. Today, even though pay is going up, the scheduling is crushing drivers. The result is a shortage of truckers”
The bit they left out is where they found the extra truckers from in the US. Yes, exactly what you'd expect.
Mostly prison according to a friend of mine there as it's about the only job you can do with a felony conviction.
Mixture of cons, illegal immigrants etc.
People you can treat like shit with no comeback. Funny that....
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
Sounds dodgy af
Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
I tweeted ISPOS-MORI to see if they knew anything about it. I was going to warn people on the local facebook page, but thought I had better check first
Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
Do let us know what comes of it - this is utterly absurd either way.
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
IPSOS-MORI diversifying their income streams. Most enterprising.
I do not believe that the person really worked for Ipsos MORI.
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
Sounds dodgy af
Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
I tweeted ISPOS-MORI to see if they knew anything about it. I was going to warn people on the local facebook page, but thought I had better check first
Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
Do let us know what comes of it - this is utterly absurd either way.
Will do. I just told my girlfriend and she as lost for words! How many older, gullible people might have been taken in? What on earth is the upside to agreeing to it?
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
To be fair, it doesn't have to be responsible for it to be the story. There's a real risk that Brexit gets blamed for things that aren't it's fault.
But that's just how things are. Everything gets unfairly blamed. The EU, England, the west, China, the UN, video games, trans women, masks, Boris.
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
IPSOS-MORI diversifying their income streams. Most enterprising.
I do not believe that the person really worked for Ipsos MORI.
Given your contacts with the polling industry - could you ask them, please?
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
Sounds dodgy af
Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
I tweeted ISPOS-MORI to see if they knew anything about it. I was going to warn people on the local facebook page, but thought I had better check first
Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
Do let us know what comes of it - this is utterly absurd either way.
Will do. I just told my girlfriend and she as lost for words! How many older, gullible people might have been taken in? What on earth is the upside to agreeing to it?
I did wonder what the spiel might have been for a different category of mark (assuming you don't look particularly gullible).
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
To be fair, it doesn't have to be responsible for it to be the story. There's a real risk that Brexit gets blamed for things that aren't it's fault.
But that's just how things are. Everything gets unfairly blamed. The EU, England, the west, China, the UN, video games, trans women, masks, Boris.
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
Sounds dodgy af
Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
I tweeted ISPOS-MORI to see if they knew anything about it. I was going to warn people on the local facebook page, but thought I had better check first
Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
Do let us know what comes of it - this is utterly absurd either way.
Will do. I just told my girlfriend and she as lost for words! How many older, gullible people might have been taken in? What on earth is the upside to agreeing to it?
I did wonder what the spiel might have been for a different category of mark (assuming you don't look particularly gullible).
Wearing a facemask too, outside in the pouring rain w a brolly. Was that to not be identified by people who have those RING doorbells perhaps?
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
IPSOS-MORI diversifying their income streams. Most enterprising.
I do not believe that the person really worked for Ipsos MORI.
I should have asked if he preferred Net Ratings or Gross Positives and see what he said, as a test!
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
To be fair, it doesn't have to be responsible for it to be the story. There's a real risk that Brexit gets blamed for things that aren't it's fault.
But that's just how things are. Everything gets unfairly blamed. The EU, England, the west, China, the UN, video games, trans women, masks, Boris.
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
Sounds dodgy af
Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
I tweeted ISPOS-MORI to see if they knew anything about it. I was going to warn people on the local facebook page, but thought I had better check first
Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
Do let us know what comes of it - this is utterly absurd either way.
Will do. I just told my girlfriend and she as lost for words! How many older, gullible people might have been taken in? What on earth is the upside to agreeing to it?
I did wonder what the spiel might have been for a different category of mark (assuming you don't look particularly gullible).
Wearing a facemask too, outside in the pouring rain w a brolly. Was that to not be identified by people who have those RING doorbells perhaps?
Any ID? Lack thereof would be a real warning signal.
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
I suspect Boris will give a fearsome ultimatum to British business: either increase wages in the areas we demand, or we will nationalize you.
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
I suspect Boris will give a fearsome ultimatum to British business: either increase wages in the areas we demand, or we will nationalize you.
He and his government can’t even run schools properly, how would he run abattoirs or trucking firms?
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
Sounds dodgy af
Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
I tweeted ISPOS-MORI to see if they knew anything about it. I was going to warn people on the local facebook page, but thought I had better check first
Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
Do let us know what comes of it - this is utterly absurd either way.
Will do. I just told my girlfriend and she as lost for words! How many older, gullible people might have been taken in? What on earth is the upside to agreeing to it?
I did wonder what the spiel might have been for a different category of mark (assuming you don't look particularly gullible).
Wearing a facemask too, outside in the pouring rain w a brolly. Was that to not be identified by people who have those RING doorbells perhaps?
Any ID? Lack thereof would be a real warning signal.
He did show a card, but very quickly and it looked all blurry. Could be legit, you never know. But I think unlikely
Fair play to him if he is legit - its absolutely pissing down!
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.
It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
All genuine people in these sorts of cold call situations are very anxious to show their genuineness, and begin with it.
Everyone who cold calls knows that there are three questions in the mind of the person behind the front door:
Who are you?
What do you want?
Are you genuine?
If you don't answer all three before being asked, in the first sentence, you are not genuine; or if you are, you are inexperienced.
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.
It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.
Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
I certainly won’t be.
Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.
It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.
Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
But pensioners would have to pay more tax for Mrs F to be done the decent by.
Edit: not aimed at BigG, I hasten to add - just referring to the general agreement on PB that the tax burden is unfairly on the working population.
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
I suspect Boris will give a fearsome ultimatum to British business: either increase wages in the areas we demand, or we will nationalize you.
How about pay a decent wage or you won't have any staff? Seems a reasonable arrangement, do you object to that?
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.
It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.
Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
But pensioners would have to pay more tax for Mrs F to be done the decent by.
Edit: not aimed at BigG, I hasten to add - just referring to the general agreement on PB that the tax burden is unfairly on the working population.
Eventually a land value tax or wealth tax will become unavoidable - as I've pointed out for months, there is nothing else left to tax.
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.
It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.
Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
I certainly won’t be.
Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
Indeed, and I think police got nothing this year too.
How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.
It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.
Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
While you are there, Foxy, how much would the Treasury need to find to fund the NHS properly so that doctors and patients all felt OK about it? And how much more is that than is currently spent?
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.
It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.
Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
I certainly won’t be.
Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
Indeed, and I think police got nothing this year too.
How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
Don't know. Buit when the higher paid ranks were given extra money for the cost of being based in Scotland (where they are taxed more), I don't recall that the lower paid ranks were given extra money for the cost of being based in rUK (where many are taxed more).
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.
It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.
Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
I certainly won’t be.
Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
Indeed, and I think police got nothing this year too.
How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
The worrying moment will come if people start to think the army is better at delivering petrol than, say, preventing insurgent attacks in Helmand.
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
I suspect Boris will give a fearsome ultimatum to British business: either increase wages in the areas we demand, or we will nationalize you.
WTF would Boris threaten to nationalize an industry.
His message will be it's your problem (one that a lot of firms, sectors have brought on themselves) deal with it...
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.
It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.
Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
But pensioners would have to pay more tax for Mrs F to be done the decent by.
Edit: not aimed at BigG, I hasten to add - just referring to the general agreement on PB that the tax burden is unfairly on the working population.
Well, they will be waiting a long time for there surgery, judging by the shortages of staff across the places she works.
Up the road in Nottingham they were cancelling some chemotherapy sessions this last week due to lack of nursing staff.
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.
It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.
Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
I certainly won’t be.
Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
Indeed, and I think police got nothing this year too.
How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.
It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.
Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
I certainly won’t be.
Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
Indeed, and I think police got nothing this year too.
How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.
It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.
Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
While you are there, Foxy, how much would the Treasury need to find to fund the NHS properly so that doctors and patients all felt OK about it? And how much more is that than is currently spent?
I don't think it is primarily about money. The reasons that we have lost so many nurses is not primarily about pay. Rather like the HGV drivers it is about the wider picture. Similarly for medical staff.
Longer than they used to be, I suspect. Stranger things, etc. But not many parties blow an 80 seat majority in one go.
The 2.4 on Betfair for a Con majority looks excellent value.
If it didn't require tying money up for 2+ years I would be on it.
Remember the Tories are starting from a (real) majority of 100-110 seats once you understand the impact of Farage at the last election.
Labour to win: virtually impossible. (126 seats) Tories to lose majority: perfectly plausible. Only 40 seats required. Labour win 30-35 of their traditional seats back. LD win 10 seats by standing with a USP of rejoin. SNP win 3 off Tories. Done. It's a 40% chance.
All reckoning needs to take account of Black Swans. But there is a well known old White Swan gently swimming into view (see posts above). It's called inflation, interest rates, mortgages, foreclosures, London and SE. And this more than anything else will be keeping Boris awake.
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.
It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.
Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
While you are there, Foxy, how much would the Treasury need to find to fund the NHS properly so that doctors and patients all felt OK about it? And how much more is that than is currently spent?
I don't think it is primarily about money. The reasons that we have lost so many nurses is not primarily about pay. Rather like the HGV drivers it is about the wider picture. Similarly for medical staff.
Tend to agree- the amount you'd have to pay me to get back into the classroom full time would be absurd and unsustainable- we're talking "Waitrose drivers paid more than MPs" levels of stupid.
But the things that would make a difference- don't squeeze me out on a regular basis, ensure I have tools to do a good job- are much harder to achieve and communicate.
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.
It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.
Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
While you are there, Foxy, how much would the Treasury need to find to fund the NHS properly so that doctors and patients all felt OK about it? And how much more is that than is currently spent?
I don't think it is primarily about money. The reasons that we have lost so many nurses is not primarily about pay. Rather like the HGV drivers it is about the wider picture. Similarly for medical staff.
And teachers.
We’re not badly paid, just seriously fucked off with the conditions and being endlessly pontificated to by the DfE, OFSTED, OFQUAL and sundry losers like Topping about how awful we are for wanting to sleep and see our families occasionally.
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
Sounds dodgy af
Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
I tweeted ISPOS-MORI to see if they knew anything about it. I was going to warn people on the local facebook page, but thought I had better check first
Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
Do let us know what comes of it - this is utterly absurd either way.
Will do. I just told my girlfriend and she as lost for words! How many older, gullible people might have been taken in? What on earth is the upside to agreeing to it?
I did wonder what the spiel might have been for a different category of mark (assuming you don't look particularly gullible).
Wearing a facemask too, outside in the pouring rain w a brolly. Was that to not be identified by people who have those RING doorbells perhaps?
Any ID? Lack thereof would be a real warning signal.
He did show a card, but very quickly and it looked all blurry. Could be legit, you never know. But I think unlikely
Fair play to him if he is legit - its absolutely pissing down!
That's an interesting one. Years ago, we took part in a long-term survey by IPSOS-MORI - not that sort of thing, but an in-the-home thing. He turned up at our door, in quite a similar manner. It was legit.
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
Sounds dodgy af
Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
I tweeted ISPOS-MORI to see if they knew anything about it. I was going to warn people on the local facebook page, but thought I had better check first
Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
Do let us know what comes of it - this is utterly absurd either way.
Will do. I just told my girlfriend and she as lost for words! How many older, gullible people might have been taken in? What on earth is the upside to agreeing to it?
I did wonder what the spiel might have been for a different category of mark (assuming you don't look particularly gullible).
Wearing a facemask too, outside in the pouring rain w a brolly. Was that to not be identified by people who have those RING doorbells perhaps?
Any ID? Lack thereof would be a real warning signal.
He did show a card, but very quickly and it looked all blurry. Could be legit, you never know. But I think unlikely
Fair play to him if he is legit - its absolutely pissing down!
That's an interesting one. Years ago, we took part in a long-term survey by IPSOS-MORI - not that sort of thing, but an in-the-home thing. He turned up at our door, in quite a similar manner. It was legit.
Comments
But we absolutely can if we have full employment and productivity growth.
There was real wage growth over the eighties and justifiably so. It's justifiable today to have the market increase wages too.
https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/buying-mortgages/interest-rates-mortgage-inflation-bank-of-england-b957769.html
Not so much the article.which explains very basic facts about mortgages and interest rates that no one who bought a house before 2008 would be unaware of.
But the fact they felt it needed writing at all.
Springtime for Diana…
If you have a £500,000 mortgage your monthly repayments, over 25 years, will be £1,883pcm at one per cent.
That's about double the average house price in the UK.
We're all aware that house prices are higher in London but that reveals the absurdity of it.
There is also the matter of her interfering in the Morgan investigation to frustrate the inquest.
Especially when we've had decades of high inflation in costs?
Again housing costs which have had rocketing inflation form a higher proportion of household expenditure than food costs do or did in the 70s too.
The way the hard left, the totalitarian right, some Brexiteers, some Remainers and no doubt others act towards criticism and make their criticisms feels more like a religious than a political response. Being wrong is not an option, nor is compromise or sensible discussion.
But these are activists. Most people don't belong to quasi religious politics; they keep quiet (mostly) except on General Election day.
That's a tad over £22.5k per year on your mortgage.
Average UK income is £29.6k. BEFORE TAX!!
And that's at one percent.
http://news.sky.com/story/fuel-crisis-remains-critical-in-parts-of-uk-due-to-north-south-divide-despite-shortages-easing-12423638
If that exceeds wage growth you end up struggling to get a workforce.
It is my opinion that this is why the government remains ahead, and will be re-elected.
Whatsoever happens.
Just like Militant Atheism.
(Ducks)
Why the sweet F should every bugger else be subsidising folk who can afford that?
Indeed. Why should those renting be paying a levy so that others can own?
Unlevelling up in action.
Wage inflation lower than cost inflation is a standards of living decline.
For too long cost inflation has been higher than wage inflation by devaluing the value of a day's pay. That needs to be reversed.
The Guardian has an article explaining why the USA is collapsing, just like Scott's earlier:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/01/america-supply-chain-shortages
There’s a quiet panic happening in the US economy. Medical labs are running out of supplies like pipettes and petri dishes, summer camps and restaurants are having trouble getting food, and automobile, paint and electronics firms are curtailing production because they can’t get semiconductors. One man told me he couldn’t get a Whopper meal at a Burger King in Florida, as there was a sign saying “Sorry, no french fries with any order. We have no potatoes.”
The geographical spread is, however, a point of interest.
For those who do need to, inflation is growing faster than wages.
I can only hope this has a negative effect on the housing market!
“ Then there’s trucking. Talk to most businesspeople who make or move things and they will complain about the driver shortage. This too is a story of deregulation. In the 1970s, the end of public rate-setting forced trucking firms to compete against each other to offer lower shipping prices. The way they did this was by lowering pay to their drivers. Trucking on a firm-level became unpredictable and financially fragile, so for drivers schedules became unsustainable, even if the pay during boom times could be high. Today, even though pay is going up, the scheduling is crushing drivers. The result is a shortage of truckers”
So is the answer more deregulation or less?
The government seems to think both and neither.
Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!
Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
Leavers seemed very anxious to insist FBPE was also a religion (which it is), rather than denying it.
When Margot leaves, there will be another Margot, just off the coach, who will take that job.
*As unDictator of Britain, "You have been resigned" will mean that "You have been flung into the Channel by a trebuchet, manned** by evolved piscenes"
**Personed, whatever
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
People you can treat like shit with no comeback. Funny that....
But that's just how things are. Everything gets unfairly blamed. The EU, England, the west, China, the UN, video games, trans women, masks, Boris.
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
9m
26794. Eh voila. Cases dropping in England once again.
There's a song and everything - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOR38552MJA
Although TBF I’d say it was his third best.
It will at times be unfair, but since when has life or politics been fair?
Scope Davies
@deadlyvices
Replying to @JohnRentoul and @ProfTimBale
What are the odds that we end up with a hung parliament, again?
Tim Bale @ProfTimBale
Longer than they used to be, I suspect. Stranger things, etc. But not many parties blow an 80 seat majority in one go.
Fair play to him if he is legit - its absolutely pissing down!
Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
Everyone who cold calls knows that there are three questions in the mind of the person behind the front door:
Who are you?
What do you want?
Are you genuine?
If you don't answer all three before being asked, in the first sentence, you are not genuine; or if you are, you are inexperienced.
Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
Edit: not aimed at BigG, I hasten to add - just referring to the general agreement on PB that the tax burden is unfairly on the working population.
How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
Remember the Tories are starting from a (real) majority of 100-110 seats once you understand the impact of Farage at the last election.
His message will be it's your problem (one that a lot of firms, sectors have brought on themselves) deal with it...
Up the road in Nottingham they were cancelling some chemotherapy sessions this last week due to lack of nursing staff.
https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/nottingham-news/cancer-patients-missing-out-treatment-5948038.amp
(Don't suggest it to the Daily Mail!)
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8037/
And I wouldn't be holding my breath for much in the next few years, given how tight the spending envelope is.
Certain irony in the government extolling the virtues of high wages, except for the ones they are directly responsible for.
Tories to lose majority: perfectly plausible. Only 40 seats required.
Labour win 30-35 of their traditional seats back.
LD win 10 seats by standing with a USP of rejoin.
SNP win 3 off Tories.
Done. It's a 40% chance.
All reckoning needs to take account of Black Swans. But there is a well known old White Swan gently swimming into view (see posts above). It's called inflation, interest rates, mortgages, foreclosures, London and SE. And this more than anything else will be keeping Boris awake.
But the things that would make a difference- don't squeeze me out on a regular basis, ensure I have tools to do a good job- are much harder to achieve and communicate.
So they don't happen.
We’re not badly paid, just seriously fucked off with the conditions and being endlessly pontificated to by the DfE, OFSTED, OFQUAL and sundry losers like Topping about how awful we are for wanting to sleep and see our families occasionally.
Might it be the Travel Survey from the following?
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/measurement-out-home-audiences