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Fear and Loathing in Las Élysée: France 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    darkage said:

    The thing about Cressida Dick is that, even if we make the heroic assumption that she is good at her job, she has nonetheless lost the confidence of the public. That will in itself harm policing and make reform harder. She should resign and let someone new take over.

    But the calls for her to resign are not quite that unaminous. 38% of the public; according to a poll reported this morning. It isn't a 'george floyd' moment. There is a sense of public digust at an absolutely terrible crime, but this does not necessarily translate in to a lack of confidence in the police. You would need to dig deeper in to public opinion before arriving at that conclusion.
    Not a fan of Cressida Dick but I don't know why she should resign because of what someone else did.
    Because culture is set from the top.

    There is also the matter of her interfering in the Morgan investigation to frustrate the inquest.
    And because she does not seem to understand the extent of the problems the Met has and is not the person to start the process of putting them right.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,692

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    ping said:

    MattW said:

    Housing

    I'm hearing reports that the Housing Market is coming to a screeching halt. Causes

    - End of Stamp Duty holiday has finished any rushed transactions, and now affecting sentiment.
    - Dip after the rush of the last week or two whilst backoffices catch up.
    - Dawning realisation that some taxes are coming down the road.
    - Delaying until Oct 23 to find out.

    If you are buying, now may be a good time to deal.

    Interesting.

    I suspect people are starting to factor in interest rate rises coming down the road.

    What impact do people think a 4-5% interest rate would have on average house prices?

    I recon -30%, possibly more.

    I think even a 0.25% or 0.5% rise would send chills through the housing market
    Am suspicious that a certain proportion of mortgage holders aren't actually aware interest rates can rise.
    Anyone under 35, has never really known anything except interest rates on the floor.
    Just come across this article which backs this up.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/buying-mortgages/interest-rates-mortgage-inflation-bank-of-england-b957769.html

    Not so much the article.which explains very basic facts about mortgages and interest rates that no one who bought a house before 2008 would be unaware of.
    But the fact they felt it needed writing at all.

    I like this bit:

    If you have a £500,000 mortgage your monthly repayments, over 25 years, will be £1,883pcm at one per cent.

    That's about double the average house price in the UK.

    We're all aware that house prices are higher in London but that reveals the absurdity of it.
    It is the rent for a 2 bedroom flat though, so an economic prospect, at least until rates go up.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770

    Omnium said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:



    Is Brexit causing special or unusual glitches in the UK? Probably. But as the IRISH Times says, Brexit as a problem is dwarfed by this planet-wide turbulence. Brexit is not causing the power cuts across swathes of China

    But Brexit can and will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. It's going to have to be continuously defended for decades. It has already become synonymous with 'shit'.
    In your febrile brain, perhaps. In the minds of others brexit might become associated with, say, higher wages, or more jobs.

    Also, this won’t go on for decades. Already many people roll their eyes when Brexit is mentioned - in the real world, not Twitter or PB. In 5 years it will be an issue raised by embittered cranks, as other newer problems, disasters, developments, opportunities intervene
    LOL

    ;pre vote we were harried by the nailed on prospect of mass unemployment should we vote to Leave.

    Post vote we have a shortage of labour
    It's not just Brexit though. The financial crash, the spending cuts after that, Covid, and probably other things have all been predicted to lead to "X million unemployed". The doom-mongers have been consistently and wildly wrong. For reasons I can't even understand the UK has a remarkably resiliant labour market. You would think eventually the talking heads would look back and think "I'll shut my gob" but they don't ever seem to learn from their dismal track record of forecasting.
    I don't remmber the X million unemployed warning, but I do remember the reduction in trade warning, leading to employment issues, and prices going up.

    I also remember the "we have all the cards", "EU falling over themselves to trade with us", and "there's no reason we could have a trade deal from day one",
    No one, on either side, predicted a Labour shortage.
    Brexit moves in mysterious ways.
    Who dare question the Will of Brexit? It will provide.
    Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of the Remain Campaign, called it right on the very first day.

    Brexit, he said, will lead to wages going up.
    True. But unless matched by higher productivity, it will cause general inflation. So the end result will be a redistribution of real income from those in occupations not in competition with EU migrants to those who are. The country as a whole won't be better off.

    Ultimately the only ways to be better paid as a country are to increase our productivity, or reduce the real prices we pay, for example by deregulation.
    If it redistributes income from those not working to those who are then that's an improvement in its own right

    But there's no reason why productivity wouldn't rise. Incentivised to do so, people will invest in improvements and technology to aid productivity.
    You'd have two effects. On the one hand there would be a substitution effect, as firms are incentivised to substitute capital for Labour. But as I explained below that's probably limited. On the other, there would be an income effect, as business as a whole is less profitable.

    The idea that we can pay-rise ourselves to prosperity is as seductive as the idea that we can tax and spend ourselves to prosperity, and just as accurate. The only way to increase prosperity overall is to increase productivity.

    Mrs Thatcher made a really good speech on this. I'll try and did it out.
    Thatcher was right that you can't buck the market to get pay rises faster than the market can cope with.

    But we absolutely can if we have full employment and productivity growth.

    There was real wage growth over the eighties and justifiably so. It's justifiable today to have the market increase wages too.
    Wage growth is usually bad. Growth in the standard of living, usually good.
    How do you get standard in living growth without wage growth?

    Especially when we've had decades of high inflation in costs?

    Again housing costs which have had rocketing inflation form a higher proportion of household expenditure than food costs do or did in the 70s too.
    Wages are just a number. Unfortunately inflation has long hindered understanding of what it is we barter - a day's pay. That's it.

  • Fishing said:

    Omnium said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:



    Is Brexit causing special or unusual glitches in the UK? Probably. But as the IRISH Times says, Brexit as a problem is dwarfed by this planet-wide turbulence. Brexit is not causing the power cuts across swathes of China

    But Brexit can and will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. It's going to have to be continuously defended for decades. It has already become synonymous with 'shit'.
    In your febrile brain, perhaps. In the minds of others brexit might become associated with, say, higher wages, or more jobs.

    Also, this won’t go on for decades. Already many people roll their eyes when Brexit is mentioned - in the real world, not Twitter or PB. In 5 years it will be an issue raised by embittered cranks, as other newer problems, disasters, developments, opportunities intervene
    LOL

    ;pre vote we were harried by the nailed on prospect of mass unemployment should we vote to Leave.

    Post vote we have a shortage of labour
    It's not just Brexit though. The financial crash, the spending cuts after that, Covid, and probably other things have all been predicted to lead to "X million unemployed". The doom-mongers have been consistently and wildly wrong. For reasons I can't even understand the UK has a remarkably resiliant labour market. You would think eventually the talking heads would look back and think "I'll shut my gob" but they don't ever seem to learn from their dismal track record of forecasting.
    I don't remmber the X million unemployed warning, but I do remember the reduction in trade warning, leading to employment issues, and prices going up.

    I also remember the "we have all the cards", "EU falling over themselves to trade with us", and "there's no reason we could have a trade deal from day one",
    No one, on either side, predicted a Labour shortage.
    Brexit moves in mysterious ways.
    Who dare question the Will of Brexit? It will provide.
    Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of the Remain Campaign, called it right on the very first day.

    Brexit, he said, will lead to wages going up.
    True. But unless matched by higher productivity, it will cause general inflation. So the end result will be a redistribution of real income from those in occupations not in competition with EU migrants to those who are. The country as a whole won't be better off.

    Ultimately the only ways to be better paid as a country are to increase our productivity, or reduce the real prices we pay, for example by deregulation.
    If it redistributes income from those not working to those who are then that's an improvement in its own right

    But there's no reason why productivity wouldn't rise. Incentivised to do so, people will invest in improvements and technology to aid productivity.
    You'd have two effects. On the one hand there would be a substitution effect, as firms are incentivised to substitute capital for Labour. But as I explained below that's probably limited. On the other, there would be an income effect, as business as a whole is less profitable.

    The idea that we can pay-rise ourselves to prosperity is as seductive as the idea that we can tax and spend ourselves to prosperity, and just as accurate. The only way to increase prosperity overall is to increase productivity.

    Mrs Thatcher made a really good speech on this. I'll try and did it out.
    Thatcher was right that you can't buck the market to get pay rises faster than the market can cope with.

    But we absolutely can if we have full employment and productivity growth.

    There was real wage growth over the eighties and justifiably so. It's justifiable today to have the market increase wages too.
    Wage growth is usually bad. Growth in the standard of living, usually good.
    Wage growth is fine as long as it doesn't outpace productivity growth. Because then it has to lead eventually to inflation.
    How about house price growth ?

    If that exceeds wage growth you end up struggling to get a workforce.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,409
    algarkirk said:

    dixiedean said:

    I don't have an opinion about British petrol shortages but the political point is that even if everybody thinks it's Brexit that's doing it, there will be an indignant argument about whether it's 80% Brexit or merely 65% Brexit, and the people who liked Brexit will feel like Boris is sticking up for them against the insufferable 80%ers. There are more than 40% of these people, and in the British system 40% wins you the election. I don't really have any good ideas for what Labour can do about this.

    Yup. As someone upthread said, Brexit is a religion. 40% are fundamentalists. Under FPTP, that means a theocracy.
    The slightly more complicated, boring but possibly true suggestion is that a number of groups of all shades of opinion have, so to speak, transferred religious instincts to other things. Religions can be marginalised but not human nature, which is highly religious in many cases.

    The way the hard left, the totalitarian right, some Brexiteers, some Remainers and no doubt others act towards criticism and make their criticisms feels more like a religious than a political response. Being wrong is not an option, nor is compromise or sensible discussion.

    But these are activists. Most people don't belong to quasi religious politics; they keep quiet (mostly) except on General Election day.

    I think you are right on this. However, Brexit is a far more widespread belief system than the others you mention. And 40% don't seem susceptible to doubt. Whether they loudly proclaim it or not. And whether or not it produces the benefits they were expecting. Or indeed any at all.
    It is my opinion that this is why the government remains ahead, and will be re-elected.
    Whatsoever happens.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,201

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    ping said:

    MattW said:

    Housing

    I'm hearing reports that the Housing Market is coming to a screeching halt. Causes

    - End of Stamp Duty holiday has finished any rushed transactions, and now affecting sentiment.
    - Dip after the rush of the last week or two whilst backoffices catch up.
    - Dawning realisation that some taxes are coming down the road.
    - Delaying until Oct 23 to find out.

    If you are buying, now may be a good time to deal.

    Interesting.

    I suspect people are starting to factor in interest rate rises coming down the road.

    What impact do people think a 4-5% interest rate would have on average house prices?

    I recon -30%, possibly more.

    I think even a 0.25% or 0.5% rise would send chills through the housing market
    Am suspicious that a certain proportion of mortgage holders aren't actually aware interest rates can rise.
    Anyone under 35, has never really known anything except interest rates on the floor.
    Just come across this article which backs this up.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/buying-mortgages/interest-rates-mortgage-inflation-bank-of-england-b957769.html

    Not so much the article.which explains very basic facts about mortgages and interest rates that no one who bought a house before 2008 would be unaware of.
    But the fact they felt it needed writing at all.

    I like this bit:

    If you have a £500,000 mortgage your monthly repayments, over 25 years, will be £1,883pcm at one per cent.

    That's about double the average house price in the UK.

    We're all aware that house prices are higher in London but that reveals the absurdity of it.
    It is, however, roughly the top of the level where you get a first time buyer subsidy on your new house.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,692
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    ping said:

    MattW said:

    Housing

    I'm hearing reports that the Housing Market is coming to a screeching halt. Causes

    - End of Stamp Duty holiday has finished any rushed transactions, and now affecting sentiment.
    - Dip after the rush of the last week or two whilst backoffices catch up.
    - Dawning realisation that some taxes are coming down the road.
    - Delaying until Oct 23 to find out.

    If you are buying, now may be a good time to deal.

    Interesting.

    I suspect people are starting to factor in interest rate rises coming down the road.

    What impact do people think a 4-5% interest rate would have on average house prices?

    I recon -30%, possibly more.

    I think even a 0.25% or 0.5% rise would send chills through the housing market
    Am suspicious that a certain proportion of mortgage holders aren't actually aware interest rates can rise.
    Anyone under 35, has never really known anything except interest rates on the floor.
    Just come across this article which backs this up.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/buying-mortgages/interest-rates-mortgage-inflation-bank-of-england-b957769.html

    Not so much the article.which explains very basic facts about mortgages and interest rates that no one who bought a house before 2008 would be unaware of.
    But the fact they felt it needed writing at all.

    I like this bit:

    If you have a £500,000 mortgage your monthly repayments, over 25 years, will be £1,883pcm at one per cent.

    That's about double the average house price in the UK.

    We're all aware that house prices are higher in London but that reveals the absurdity of it.
    Well yes.
    That's a tad over £22.5k per year on your mortgage.
    Average UK income is £29.6k. BEFORE TAX!!
    And that's at one percent.
    Yes but you wouldn't get a mortgage of more than 20 times income, at least I hope not!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,201
    edited October 2021
    algarkirk said:

    dixiedean said:

    I don't have an opinion about British petrol shortages but the political point is that even if everybody thinks it's Brexit that's doing it, there will be an indignant argument about whether it's 80% Brexit or merely 65% Brexit, and the people who liked Brexit will feel like Boris is sticking up for them against the insufferable 80%ers. There are more than 40% of these people, and in the British system 40% wins you the election. I don't really have any good ideas for what Labour can do about this.

    Yup. As someone upthread said, Brexit is a religion. 40% are fundamentalists. Under FPTP, that means a theocracy.
    The slightly more complicated, boring but possibly true suggestion is that a number of groups of all shades of opinion have, so to speak, transferred religious instincts to other things. Religions can be marginalised but not human nature, which is highly religious in many cases.

    The way the hard left, the totalitarian right, some Brexiteers, some Remainers and no doubt others act towards criticism and make their criticisms feels more like a religious than a political response. Being wrong is not an option, nor is compromise or sensible discussion.

    But these are activists. Most people don't belong to quasi religious politics; they keep quiet (mostly) except on General Election day.

    Most of those *are* religions.

    Just like Militant Atheism.

    (Ducks)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,409
    edited October 2021
    MattW said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    ping said:

    MattW said:

    Housing

    I'm hearing reports that the Housing Market is coming to a screeching halt. Causes

    - End of Stamp Duty holiday has finished any rushed transactions, and now affecting sentiment.
    - Dip after the rush of the last week or two whilst backoffices catch up.
    - Dawning realisation that some taxes are coming down the road.
    - Delaying until Oct 23 to find out.

    If you are buying, now may be a good time to deal.

    Interesting.

    I suspect people are starting to factor in interest rate rises coming down the road.

    What impact do people think a 4-5% interest rate would have on average house prices?

    I recon -30%, possibly more.

    I think even a 0.25% or 0.5% rise would send chills through the housing market
    Am suspicious that a certain proportion of mortgage holders aren't actually aware interest rates can rise.
    Anyone under 35, has never really known anything except interest rates on the floor.
    Just come across this article which backs this up.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/buying-mortgages/interest-rates-mortgage-inflation-bank-of-england-b957769.html

    Not so much the article.which explains very basic facts about mortgages and interest rates that no one who bought a house before 2008 would be unaware of.
    But the fact they felt it needed writing at all.

    I like this bit:

    If you have a £500,000 mortgage your monthly repayments, over 25 years, will be £1,883pcm at one per cent.

    That's about double the average house price in the UK.

    We're all aware that house prices are higher in London but that reveals the absurdity of it.
    It is, however, roughly the top of the level where you get a first time buyer subsidy on your new house.
    Raising an obvious question.
    Why the sweet F should every bugger else be subsidising folk who can afford that?
    Indeed. Why should those renting be paying a levy so that others can own?
    Unlevelling up in action.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,418
    Drove home from work on Friday up the A167 to North Durham from Newton Aycliffe. Passed several garages. No queues, handful of cars on the forecourt. Seems to be over for the time being in the north east.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:



    Is Brexit causing special or unusual glitches in the UK? Probably. But as the IRISH Times says, Brexit as a problem is dwarfed by this planet-wide turbulence. Brexit is not causing the power cuts across swathes of China

    But Brexit can and will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. It's going to have to be continuously defended for decades. It has already become synonymous with 'shit'.
    In your febrile brain, perhaps. In the minds of others brexit might become associated with, say, higher wages, or more jobs.

    Also, this won’t go on for decades. Already many people roll their eyes when Brexit is mentioned - in the real world, not Twitter or PB. In 5 years it will be an issue raised by embittered cranks, as other newer problems, disasters, developments, opportunities intervene
    LOL

    ;pre vote we were harried by the nailed on prospect of mass unemployment should we vote to Leave.

    Post vote we have a shortage of labour
    It's not just Brexit though. The financial crash, the spending cuts after that, Covid, and probably other things have all been predicted to lead to "X million unemployed". The doom-mongers have been consistently and wildly wrong. For reasons I can't even understand the UK has a remarkably resiliant labour market. You would think eventually the talking heads would look back and think "I'll shut my gob" but they don't ever seem to learn from their dismal track record of forecasting.
    I don't remmber the X million unemployed warning, but I do remember the reduction in trade warning, leading to employment issues, and prices going up.

    I also remember the "we have all the cards", "EU falling over themselves to trade with us", and "there's no reason we could have a trade deal from day one",
    No one, on either side, predicted a Labour shortage.
    Brexit moves in mysterious ways.
    Who dare question the Will of Brexit? It will provide.
    Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of the Remain Campaign, called it right on the very first day.

    Brexit, he said, will lead to wages going up.
    It was the whole reason I voted for Leave, and I said so probably ten thousand times on here
  • Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:



    Is Brexit causing special or unusual glitches in the UK? Probably. But as the IRISH Times says, Brexit as a problem is dwarfed by this planet-wide turbulence. Brexit is not causing the power cuts across swathes of China

    But Brexit can and will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. It's going to have to be continuously defended for decades. It has already become synonymous with 'shit'.
    In your febrile brain, perhaps. In the minds of others brexit might become associated with, say, higher wages, or more jobs.

    Also, this won’t go on for decades. Already many people roll their eyes when Brexit is mentioned - in the real world, not Twitter or PB. In 5 years it will be an issue raised by embittered cranks, as other newer problems, disasters, developments, opportunities intervene
    LOL

    ;pre vote we were harried by the nailed on prospect of mass unemployment should we vote to Leave.

    Post vote we have a shortage of labour
    It's not just Brexit though. The financial crash, the spending cuts after that, Covid, and probably other things have all been predicted to lead to "X million unemployed". The doom-mongers have been consistently and wildly wrong. For reasons I can't even understand the UK has a remarkably resiliant labour market. You would think eventually the talking heads would look back and think "I'll shut my gob" but they don't ever seem to learn from their dismal track record of forecasting.
    I don't remmber the X million unemployed warning, but I do remember the reduction in trade warning, leading to employment issues, and prices going up.

    I also remember the "we have all the cards", "EU falling over themselves to trade with us", and "there's no reason we could have a trade deal from day one",
    No one, on either side, predicted a Labour shortage.
    Brexit moves in mysterious ways.
    Who dare question the Will of Brexit? It will provide.
    Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of the Remain Campaign, called it right on the very first day.

    Brexit, he said, will lead to wages going up.
    True. But unless matched by higher productivity, it will cause general inflation. So the end result will be a redistribution of real income from those in occupations not in competition with EU migrants to those who are. The country as a whole won't be better off.

    Ultimately the only ways to be better paid as a country are to increase our productivity, or reduce the real prices we pay, for example by deregulation.
    If it redistributes income from those not working to those who are then that's an improvement in its own right

    But there's no reason why productivity wouldn't rise. Incentivised to do so, people will invest in improvements and technology to aid productivity.
    You'd have two effects. On the one hand there would be a substitution effect, as firms are incentivised to substitute capital for Labour. But as I explained below that's probably limited. On the other, there would be an income effect, as business as a whole is less profitable.

    The idea that we can pay-rise ourselves to prosperity is as seductive as the idea that we can tax and spend ourselves to prosperity, and just as accurate. The only way to increase prosperity overall is to increase productivity.

    Mrs Thatcher made a really good speech on this. I'll try and did it out.
    Thatcher was right that you can't buck the market to get pay rises faster than the market can cope with.

    But we absolutely can if we have full employment and productivity growth.

    There was real wage growth over the eighties and justifiably so. It's justifiable today to have the market increase wages too.
    Wage growth is usually bad. Growth in the standard of living, usually good.
    How do you get standard in living growth without wage growth?

    Especially when we've had decades of high inflation in costs?

    Again housing costs which have had rocketing inflation form a higher proportion of household expenditure than food costs do or did in the 70s too.
    Wages are just a number. Unfortunately inflation has long hindered understanding of what it is we barter - a day's pay. That's it.

    Wage inflation higher than cost inflation is a standards of living increase.

    Wage inflation lower than cost inflation is a standards of living decline.

    For too long cost inflation has been higher than wage inflation by devaluing the value of a day's pay. That needs to be reversed.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,201
    This is quite funny.

    The Guardian has an article explaining why the USA is collapsing, just like Scott's earlier:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/01/america-supply-chain-shortages

    There’s a quiet panic happening in the US economy. Medical labs are running out of supplies like pipettes and petri dishes, summer camps and restaurants are having trouble getting food, and automobile, paint and electronics firms are curtailing production because they can’t get semiconductors. One man told me he couldn’t get a Whopper meal at a Burger King in Florida, as there was a sign saying “Sorry, no french fries with any order. We have no potatoes.”

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,409
    Taz said:

    Drove home from work on Friday up the A167 to North Durham from Newton Aycliffe. Passed several garages. No queues, handful of cars on the forecourt. Seems to be over for the time being in the north east.
    Never started round here. Tyne Valley.
    The geographical spread is, however, a point of interest.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,104
    Andy_JS said:

    darkage said:

    The thing about Cressida Dick is that, even if we make the heroic assumption that she is good at her job, she has nonetheless lost the confidence of the public. That will in itself harm policing and make reform harder. She should resign and let someone new take over.

    But the calls for her to resign are not quite that unaminous. 38% of the public; according to a poll reported this morning. It isn't a 'george floyd' moment. There is a sense of public digust at an absolutely terrible crime, but this does not necessarily translate in to a lack of confidence in the police. You would need to dig deeper in to public opinion before arriving at that conclusion.
    Not a fan of Cressida Dick but I don't know why she should resign because of what someone else did.
    Because it is about more than a single incident for starters, but about her leadership qualities, particularly the ability to deal with systemic issues which, thus far, she has not dealt with so why would she now be able to?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:



    Is Brexit causing special or unusual glitches in the UK? Probably. But as the IRISH Times says, Brexit as a problem is dwarfed by this planet-wide turbulence. Brexit is not causing the power cuts across swathes of China

    But Brexit can and will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. It's going to have to be continuously defended for decades. It has already become synonymous with 'shit'.
    In your febrile brain, perhaps. In the minds of others brexit might become associated with, say, higher wages, or more jobs.

    Also, this won’t go on for decades. Already many people roll their eyes when Brexit is mentioned - in the real world, not Twitter or PB. In 5 years it will be an issue raised by embittered cranks, as other newer problems, disasters, developments, opportunities intervene
    LOL

    ;pre vote we were harried by the nailed on prospect of mass unemployment should we vote to Leave.

    Post vote we have a shortage of labour
    It's not just Brexit though. The financial crash, the spending cuts after that, Covid, and probably other things have all been predicted to lead to "X million unemployed". The doom-mongers have been consistently and wildly wrong. For reasons I can't even understand the UK has a remarkably resiliant labour market. You would think eventually the talking heads would look back and think "I'll shut my gob" but they don't ever seem to learn from their dismal track record of forecasting.
    I don't remmber the X million unemployed warning, but I do remember the reduction in trade warning, leading to employment issues, and prices going up.

    I also remember the "we have all the cards", "EU falling over themselves to trade with us", and "there's no reason we could have a trade deal from day one",
    No one, on either side, predicted a Labour shortage.
    Brexit moves in mysterious ways.
    Who dare question the Will of Brexit? It will provide.
    Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of the Remain Campaign, called it right on the very first day.

    Brexit, he said, will lead to wages going up.
    True. But unless matched by higher productivity, it will cause general inflation. So the end result will be a redistribution of real income from those in occupations not in competition with EU migrants to those who are. The country as a whole won't be better off.

    Ultimately the only ways to be better paid as a country are to increase our productivity, or reduce the real prices we pay, for example by deregulation.
    If it redistributes income from those not working to those who are then that's an improvement in its own right

    But there's no reason why productivity wouldn't rise. Incentivised to do so, people will invest in improvements and technology to aid productivity.
    You'd have two effects. On the one hand there would be a substitution effect, as firms are incentivised to substitute capital for Labour. But as I explained below that's probably limited. On the other, there would be an income effect, as business as a whole is less profitable.

    The idea that we can pay-rise ourselves to prosperity is as seductive as the idea that we can tax and spend ourselves to prosperity, and just as accurate. The only way to increase prosperity overall is to increase productivity.

    Mrs Thatcher made a really good speech on this. I'll try and did it out.
    Thatcher was right that you can't buck the market to get pay rises faster than the market can cope with.

    But we absolutely can if we have full employment and productivity growth.

    There was real wage growth over the eighties and justifiably so. It's justifiable today to have the market increase wages too.
    Wage growth is usually bad. Growth in the standard of living, usually good.
    How do you get standard in living growth without wage growth?

    Especially when we've had decades of high inflation in costs?

    Again housing costs which have had rocketing inflation form a higher proportion of household expenditure than food costs do or did in the 70s too.
    Wages are just a number. Unfortunately inflation has long hindered understanding of what it is we barter - a day's pay. That's it.

    Wage inflation higher than cost inflation is a standards of living increase.

    Wage inflation lower than cost inflation is a standards of living decline.

    For too long cost inflation has been higher than wage inflation by devaluing the value of a day's pay. That needs to be reversed.
    For a very long time (in the UK) the standards of living have increased. It's not about 'sweeping up' being better paid, but it is about many more people doing more productive jobs. You're nailed on to know this.
  • Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:



    Is Brexit causing special or unusual glitches in the UK? Probably. But as the IRISH Times says, Brexit as a problem is dwarfed by this planet-wide turbulence. Brexit is not causing the power cuts across swathes of China

    But Brexit can and will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. It's going to have to be continuously defended for decades. It has already become synonymous with 'shit'.
    In your febrile brain, perhaps. In the minds of others brexit might become associated with, say, higher wages, or more jobs.

    Also, this won’t go on for decades. Already many people roll their eyes when Brexit is mentioned - in the real world, not Twitter or PB. In 5 years it will be an issue raised by embittered cranks, as other newer problems, disasters, developments, opportunities intervene
    LOL

    ;pre vote we were harried by the nailed on prospect of mass unemployment should we vote to Leave.

    Post vote we have a shortage of labour
    It's not just Brexit though. The financial crash, the spending cuts after that, Covid, and probably other things have all been predicted to lead to "X million unemployed". The doom-mongers have been consistently and wildly wrong. For reasons I can't even understand the UK has a remarkably resiliant labour market. You would think eventually the talking heads would look back and think "I'll shut my gob" but they don't ever seem to learn from their dismal track record of forecasting.
    I don't remmber the X million unemployed warning, but I do remember the reduction in trade warning, leading to employment issues, and prices going up.

    I also remember the "we have all the cards", "EU falling over themselves to trade with us", and "there's no reason we could have a trade deal from day one",
    No one, on either side, predicted a Labour shortage.
    Brexit moves in mysterious ways.
    Who dare question the Will of Brexit? It will provide.
    Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of the Remain Campaign, called it right on the very first day.

    Brexit, he said, will lead to wages going up.
    True. But unless matched by higher productivity, it will cause general inflation. So the end result will be a redistribution of real income from those in occupations not in competition with EU migrants to those who are. The country as a whole won't be better off.

    Ultimately the only ways to be better paid as a country are to increase our productivity, or reduce the real prices we pay, for example by deregulation.
    If it redistributes income from those not working to those who are then that's an improvement in its own right

    But there's no reason why productivity wouldn't rise. Incentivised to do so, people will invest in improvements and technology to aid productivity.
    You'd have two effects. On the one hand there would be a substitution effect, as firms are incentivised to substitute capital for Labour. But as I explained below that's probably limited. On the other, there would be an income effect, as business as a whole is less profitable.

    The idea that we can pay-rise ourselves to prosperity is as seductive as the idea that we can tax and spend ourselves to prosperity, and just as accurate. The only way to increase prosperity overall is to increase productivity.

    Mrs Thatcher made a really good speech on this. I'll try and did it out.
    Thatcher was right that you can't buck the market to get pay rises faster than the market can cope with.

    But we absolutely can if we have full employment and productivity growth.

    There was real wage growth over the eighties and justifiably so. It's justifiable today to have the market increase wages too.
    Wage growth is usually bad. Growth in the standard of living, usually good.
    How do you get standard in living growth without wage growth?

    Especially when we've had decades of high inflation in costs?

    Again housing costs which have had rocketing inflation form a higher proportion of household expenditure than food costs do or did in the 70s too.
    Wages are just a number. Unfortunately inflation has long hindered understanding of what it is we barter - a day's pay. That's it.

    Wage inflation higher than cost inflation is a standards of living increase.

    Wage inflation lower than cost inflation is a standards of living decline.

    For too long cost inflation has been higher than wage inflation by devaluing the value of a day's pay. That needs to be reversed.
    For a very long time (in the UK) the standards of living have increased. It's not about 'sweeping up' being better paid, but it is about many more people doing more productive jobs. You're nailed on to know this.
    Standards of living have increased so long as you don't need to pay for your housing, absolutely agreed.

    For those who do need to, inflation is growing faster than wages.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ..…
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    ping said:

    MattW said:

    Housing

    I'm hearing reports that the Housing Market is coming to a screeching halt. Causes

    - End of Stamp Duty holiday has finished any rushed transactions, and now affecting sentiment.
    - Dip after the rush of the last week or two whilst backoffices catch up.
    - Dawning realisation that some taxes are coming down the road.
    - Delaying until Oct 23 to find out.

    If you are buying, now may be a good time to deal.

    Interesting.

    I suspect people are starting to factor in interest rate rises coming down the road.

    What impact do people think a 4-5% interest rate would have on average house prices?

    I recon -30%, possibly more.

    I think even a 0.25% or 0.5% rise would send chills through the housing market
    And the market is pricing in rate hikes up from 0.1% to 0.75% next year.

    I can only hope this has a negative effect on the housing market!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    dixiedean said:

    I don't have an opinion about British petrol shortages but the political point is that even if everybody thinks it's Brexit that's doing it, there will be an indignant argument about whether it's 80% Brexit or merely 65% Brexit, and the people who liked Brexit will feel like Boris is sticking up for them against the insufferable 80%ers. There are more than 40% of these people, and in the British system 40% wins you the election. I don't really have any good ideas for what Labour can do about this.

    Yup. As someone upthread said, Brexit is a religion. 40% are fundamentalists. Under FPTP, that means a theocracy.
    Are you exaggerating slightly?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,409
    isam said:

    MattW said:

    This is quite funny.

    The Guardian has an article explaining why the USA is collapsing, just like Scott's earlier:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/01/america-supply-chain-shortages

    There’s a quiet panic happening in the US economy. Medical labs are running out of supplies like pipettes and petri dishes, summer camps and restaurants are having trouble getting food, and automobile, paint and electronics firms are curtailing production because they can’t get semiconductors. One man told me he couldn’t get a Whopper meal at a Burger King in Florida, as there was a sign saying “Sorry, no french fries with any order. We have no potatoes.”

    Bloody Brexit!

    “ Then there’s trucking. Talk to most businesspeople who make or move things and they will complain about the driver shortage. This too is a story of deregulation. In the 1970s, the end of public rate-setting forced trucking firms to compete against each other to offer lower shipping prices. The way they did this was by lowering pay to their drivers. Trucking on a firm-level became unpredictable and financially fragile, so for drivers schedules became unsustainable, even if the pay during boom times could be high. Today, even though pay is going up, the scheduling is crushing drivers. The result is a shortage of truckers”
    This is very true.
    So is the answer more deregulation or less?
    The government seems to think both and neither.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2021
    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    Sounds dodgy af

    Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,409
    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    IPSOS-MORI diversifying their income streams. Most enterprising.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,409
    edited October 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    I don't have an opinion about British petrol shortages but the political point is that even if everybody thinks it's Brexit that's doing it, there will be an indignant argument about whether it's 80% Brexit or merely 65% Brexit, and the people who liked Brexit will feel like Boris is sticking up for them against the insufferable 80%ers. There are more than 40% of these people, and in the British system 40% wins you the election. I don't really have any good ideas for what Labour can do about this.

    Yup. As someone upthread said, Brexit is a religion. 40% are fundamentalists. Under FPTP, that means a theocracy.
    Are you exaggerating slightly?
    Yes. For effect.
    Leavers seemed very anxious to insist FBPE was also a religion (which it is), rather than denying it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,309
    isam said:

    MattW said:

    This is quite funny.

    The Guardian has an article explaining why the USA is collapsing, just like Scott's earlier:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/01/america-supply-chain-shortages

    There’s a quiet panic happening in the US economy. Medical labs are running out of supplies like pipettes and petri dishes, summer camps and restaurants are having trouble getting food, and automobile, paint and electronics firms are curtailing production because they can’t get semiconductors. One man told me he couldn’t get a Whopper meal at a Burger King in Florida, as there was a sign saying “Sorry, no french fries with any order. We have no potatoes.”

    Bloody Brexit!

    “ Then there’s trucking. Talk to most businesspeople who make or move things and they will complain about the driver shortage. This too is a story of deregulation. In the 1970s, the end of public rate-setting forced trucking firms to compete against each other to offer lower shipping prices. The way they did this was by lowering pay to their drivers. Trucking on a firm-level became unpredictable and financially fragile, so for drivers schedules became unsustainable, even if the pay during boom times could be high. Today, even though pay is going up, the scheduling is crushing drivers. The result is a shortage of truckers”
    The bit they left out is where they found the extra truckers from in the US. Yes, exactly what you'd expect.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,867
    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,309
    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:



    Scott_xP said:

    Rod McKenzie, managing director of the Road Haulage Association, said that a promise by ministers a week ago of three-month visas for 5,000 drivers, “simply does not work.”

    Another major retail boss was blunter: “5,000 drivers is pissing in the wind.”

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1444270683211587586

    makes you wonder why the RHA didnt do something about it four years ago
    One interesting thing is that we didn't have many EU HGV drivers here in 2015, so they weren't driving down wages.



    The big drop is since 2019.
    Cumulative effect - 1% here and 1% there and soon you're dealing with substantial numbers.

    Especially if its having an effect on the number of younger British people becoming drivers.

    An ageing workforce in any economic sector is a sign of fundamental problems.
    Depends, the causality could be the drop in younger driver intake sucking in outside labour, like with farm food picking.

    Edit: been very impressed (in the wrong way) with the reportage coming out in recent months on the way [further edit] driving staff are treated universally in Europe, including the UK.
    Likewise with meat production:

    Every inch of Margot’s body hurt from the unrelenting work. Her hands bled from blisters that burst as she repeatedly hauled carcasses, but she would wait until she got home to sterilise her wounds with ammonia. “If you didn’t do your job well, you’d be pushed – they didn’t care if your hands were full of blood,” she says.

    This wasn’t the life Margot* imagined when she left her job in a clothes factory near her home village in Romania in search of better prospects for her young family in western Europe. She thought labour conditions in the Netherlands – where she worked for three years in a meat factory – would be much more favourable than in her home country. “I didn’t expect it to be so awful.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/28/the-whole-system-is-rotten-life-inside-europes-meat-industry
    So the streets aren’t paved with gold. What a shock.
    This explains the other half of the issue - such jobs need a conveyer belt of new marksemployees to keep it going.

    When Margot leaves, there will be another Margot, just off the coach, who will take that job.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,309
    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    Sign up. Call the police about something. When they aren't looking, lob the tracker in the back of their patrol car.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,854

    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    Sign up. Call the police about something. When they aren't looking, lob the tracker in the back of their patrol car.
    Er, that means that the chaps pretending to be IPSOS-MORI are most likely to burgle Isam when the police are furthest away and least available.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,309
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    darkage said:

    The thing about Cressida Dick is that, even if we make the heroic assumption that she is good at her job, she has nonetheless lost the confidence of the public. That will in itself harm policing and make reform harder. She should resign and let someone new take over.

    But the calls for her to resign are not quite that unaminous. 38% of the public; according to a poll reported this morning. It isn't a 'george floyd' moment. There is a sense of public digust at an absolutely terrible crime, but this does not necessarily translate in to a lack of confidence in the police. You would need to dig deeper in to public opinion before arriving at that conclusion.
    Not a fan of Cressida Dick but I don't know why she should resign because of what someone else did.
    Because it is about more than a single incident for starters, but about her leadership qualities, particularly the ability to deal with systemic issues which, thus far, she has not dealt with so why would she now be able to?
    She should resign*, as should every single person in the line of management down to his immediate superior.

    *As unDictator of Britain, "You have been resigned" will mean that "You have been flung into the Channel by a trebuchet, manned** by evolved piscenes"
    **Personed, whatever
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,309
    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    Sign up. Call the police about something. When they aren't looking, lob the tracker in the back of their patrol car.
    Er, that means that the chaps pretending to be IPSOS-MORI are most likely to burgle Isam when the police are furthest away and least available.
    True. Should have thought of that....
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,044

    isam said:

    MattW said:

    This is quite funny.

    The Guardian has an article explaining why the USA is collapsing, just like Scott's earlier:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/01/america-supply-chain-shortages

    There’s a quiet panic happening in the US economy. Medical labs are running out of supplies like pipettes and petri dishes, summer camps and restaurants are having trouble getting food, and automobile, paint and electronics firms are curtailing production because they can’t get semiconductors. One man told me he couldn’t get a Whopper meal at a Burger King in Florida, as there was a sign saying “Sorry, no french fries with any order. We have no potatoes.”

    Bloody Brexit!

    “ Then there’s trucking. Talk to most businesspeople who make or move things and they will complain about the driver shortage. This too is a story of deregulation. In the 1970s, the end of public rate-setting forced trucking firms to compete against each other to offer lower shipping prices. The way they did this was by lowering pay to their drivers. Trucking on a firm-level became unpredictable and financially fragile, so for drivers schedules became unsustainable, even if the pay during boom times could be high. Today, even though pay is going up, the scheduling is crushing drivers. The result is a shortage of truckers”
    The bit they left out is where they found the extra truckers from in the US. Yes, exactly what you'd expect.
    Mostly prison according to a friend of mine there as it's about the only job you can do with a felony conviction.
  • IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ping said:

    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    Sounds dodgy af

    Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
    I tweeted ISPOS-MORI to see if they knew anything about it. I was going to warn people on the local facebook page, but thought I had better check first

    Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,309
    Fishing said:

    isam said:

    MattW said:

    This is quite funny.

    The Guardian has an article explaining why the USA is collapsing, just like Scott's earlier:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/01/america-supply-chain-shortages

    There’s a quiet panic happening in the US economy. Medical labs are running out of supplies like pipettes and petri dishes, summer camps and restaurants are having trouble getting food, and automobile, paint and electronics firms are curtailing production because they can’t get semiconductors. One man told me he couldn’t get a Whopper meal at a Burger King in Florida, as there was a sign saying “Sorry, no french fries with any order. We have no potatoes.”

    Bloody Brexit!

    “ Then there’s trucking. Talk to most businesspeople who make or move things and they will complain about the driver shortage. This too is a story of deregulation. In the 1970s, the end of public rate-setting forced trucking firms to compete against each other to offer lower shipping prices. The way they did this was by lowering pay to their drivers. Trucking on a firm-level became unpredictable and financially fragile, so for drivers schedules became unsustainable, even if the pay during boom times could be high. Today, even though pay is going up, the scheduling is crushing drivers. The result is a shortage of truckers”
    The bit they left out is where they found the extra truckers from in the US. Yes, exactly what you'd expect.
    Mostly prison according to a friend of mine there as it's about the only job you can do with a felony conviction.
    Mixture of cons, illegal immigrants etc.

    People you can treat like shit with no comeback. Funny that....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,854

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,854
    isam said:

    ping said:

    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    Sounds dodgy af

    Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
    I tweeted ISPOS-MORI to see if they knew anything about it. I was going to warn people on the local facebook page, but thought I had better check first

    Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
    Do let us know what comes of it - this is utterly absurd either way.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    dixiedean said:

    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    IPSOS-MORI diversifying their income streams. Most enterprising.
    I do not believe that the person really worked for Ipsos MORI.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2021
    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    ping said:

    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    Sounds dodgy af

    Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
    I tweeted ISPOS-MORI to see if they knew anything about it. I was going to warn people on the local facebook page, but thought I had better check first

    Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
    Do let us know what comes of it - this is utterly absurd either way.
    Will do. I just told my girlfriend and she as lost for words! How many older, gullible people might have been taken in? What on earth is the upside to agreeing to it?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,309

    dixiedean said:

    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    IPSOS-MORI diversifying their income streams. Most enterprising.
    I do not believe that the person really worked for Ipsos MORI.
    Given your contacts with the polling industry - could you ask them, please?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,854
    isam said:

    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    ping said:

    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    Sounds dodgy af

    Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
    I tweeted ISPOS-MORI to see if they knew anything about it. I was going to warn people on the local facebook page, but thought I had better check first

    Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
    Do let us know what comes of it - this is utterly absurd either way.
    Will do. I just told my girlfriend and she as lost for words! How many older, gullible people might have been taken in? What on earth is the upside to agreeing to it?
    I did wonder what the spiel might have been for a different category of mark (assuming you don't look particularly gullible).
  • Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,854

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,733

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    9m
    26794. Eh voila. Cases dropping in England once again.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,309
    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    To be fair, it doesn't have to be responsible for it to be the story. There's a real risk that Brexit gets blamed for things that aren't it's fault.

    But that's just how things are. Everything gets unfairly blamed. The EU, England, the west, China, the UN, video games, trans women, masks, Boris.
    I blame Canada for nearly everything.

    There's a song and everything - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOR38552MJA
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    Live and Let Die on ITV atm. Great film, one of Roger Moore's best as Bond.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    ping said:

    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    Sounds dodgy af

    Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
    I tweeted ISPOS-MORI to see if they knew anything about it. I was going to warn people on the local facebook page, but thought I had better check first

    Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
    Do let us know what comes of it - this is utterly absurd either way.
    Will do. I just told my girlfriend and she as lost for words! How many older, gullible people might have been taken in? What on earth is the upside to agreeing to it?
    I did wonder what the spiel might have been for a different category of mark (assuming you don't look particularly gullible).
    Wearing a facemask too, outside in the pouring rain w a brolly. Was that to not be identified by people who have those RING doorbells perhaps?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,420
    Andy_JS said:

    Live and Let Die on ITV atm. Great film, one of Roger Moore's best as Bond.

    The competition isn’t exactly intense.

    Although TBF I’d say it was his third best.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    dixiedean said:

    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    IPSOS-MORI diversifying their income streams. Most enterprising.
    I do not believe that the person really worked for Ipsos MORI.
    I should have asked if he preferred Net Ratings or Gross Positives and see what he said, as a test!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,692
    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Yes, but not with a bang but a whimper.

    It will at times be unfair, but since when has life or politics been fair?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,733
    Did someone say "odds"?




    Scope Davies
    @deadlyvices

    Replying to @JohnRentoul and @ProfTimBale

    What are the odds that we end up with a hung parliament, again?


    Tim Bale @ProfTimBale

    Longer than they used to be, I suspect. Stranger things, etc. But not many parties blow an 80 seat majority in one go.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,854
    isam said:

    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    ping said:

    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    Sounds dodgy af

    Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
    I tweeted ISPOS-MORI to see if they knew anything about it. I was going to warn people on the local facebook page, but thought I had better check first

    Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
    Do let us know what comes of it - this is utterly absurd either way.
    Will do. I just told my girlfriend and she as lost for words! How many older, gullible people might have been taken in? What on earth is the upside to agreeing to it?
    I did wonder what the spiel might have been for a different category of mark (assuming you don't look particularly gullible).
    Wearing a facemask too, outside in the pouring rain w a brolly. Was that to not be identified by people who have those RING doorbells perhaps?
    Any ID? Lack thereof would be a real warning signal.
  • Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    I suspect Boris will give a fearsome ultimatum to British business: either increase wages in the areas we demand, or we will nationalize you.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,420

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    I suspect Boris will give a fearsome ultimatum to British business: either increase wages in the areas we demand, or we will nationalize you.
    He and his government can’t even run schools properly, how would he run abattoirs or trucking firms?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    ping said:

    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    Sounds dodgy af

    Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
    I tweeted ISPOS-MORI to see if they knew anything about it. I was going to warn people on the local facebook page, but thought I had better check first

    Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
    Do let us know what comes of it - this is utterly absurd either way.
    Will do. I just told my girlfriend and she as lost for words! How many older, gullible people might have been taken in? What on earth is the upside to agreeing to it?
    I did wonder what the spiel might have been for a different category of mark (assuming you don't look particularly gullible).
    Wearing a facemask too, outside in the pouring rain w a brolly. Was that to not be identified by people who have those RING doorbells perhaps?
    Any ID? Lack thereof would be a real warning signal.
    He did show a card, but very quickly and it looked all blurry. Could be legit, you never know. But I think unlikely

    Fair play to him if he is legit - its absolutely pissing down!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,692
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,518
    edited October 2021
    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    All genuine people in these sorts of cold call situations are very anxious to show their genuineness, and begin with it.

    Everyone who cold calls knows that there are three questions in the mind of the person behind the front door:

    Who are you?

    What do you want?

    Are you genuine?

    If you don't answer all three before being asked, in the first sentence, you are not genuine; or if you are, you are inexperienced.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,420
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    I certainly won’t be.

    Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,692

    Did someone say "odds"?




    Scope Davies
    @deadlyvices

    Replying to @JohnRentoul and @ProfTimBale

    What are the odds that we end up with a hung parliament, again?


    Tim Bale @ProfTimBale

    Longer than they used to be, I suspect. Stranger things, etc. But not many parties blow an 80 seat majority in one go.

    The 2.4 on Betfair for a Con majority looks excellent value.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,854
    edited October 2021
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    But pensioners would have to pay more tax for Mrs F to be done the decent by.

    Edit: not aimed at BigG, I hasten to add - just referring to the general agreement on PB that the tax burden is unfairly on the working population.
  • Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    I suspect Boris will give a fearsome ultimatum to British business: either increase wages in the areas we demand, or we will nationalize you.
    How about pay a decent wage or you won't have any staff? Seems a reasonable arrangement, do you object to that?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,378
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    But pensioners would have to pay more tax for Mrs F to be done the decent by.

    Edit: not aimed at BigG, I hasten to add - just referring to the general agreement on PB that the tax burden is unfairly on the working population.
    Eventually a land value tax or wealth tax will become unavoidable - as I've pointed out for months, there is nothing else left to tax.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,692
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    I certainly won’t be.

    Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
    Indeed, and I think police got nothing this year too.

    How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,378
    Foxy said:

    Did someone say "odds"?




    Scope Davies
    @deadlyvices

    Replying to @JohnRentoul and @ProfTimBale

    What are the odds that we end up with a hung parliament, again?


    Tim Bale @ProfTimBale

    Longer than they used to be, I suspect. Stranger things, etc. But not many parties blow an 80 seat majority in one go.

    The 2.4 on Betfair for a Con majority looks excellent value.
    If it didn't require tying money up for 2+ years I would be on it.

    Remember the Tories are starting from a (real) majority of 100-110 seats once you understand the impact of Farage at the last election.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,518
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    While you are there, Foxy, how much would the Treasury need to find to fund the NHS properly so that doctors and patients all felt OK about it? And how much more is that than is currently spent?

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,854
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    I certainly won’t be.

    Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
    Indeed, and I think police got nothing this year too.

    How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
    Don't know. Buit when the higher paid ranks were given extra money for the cost of being based in Scotland (where they are taxed more), I don't recall that the lower paid ranks were given extra money for the cost of being based in rUK (where many are taxed more).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,578


    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    9m
    26794. Eh voila. Cases dropping in England once again.

    UK hospital admissions now back to mid-July levels. Down 12% on the week.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,378

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    I suspect Boris will give a fearsome ultimatum to British business: either increase wages in the areas we demand, or we will nationalize you.
    WTF would Boris threaten to nationalize an industry.

    His message will be it's your problem (one that a lot of firms, sectors have brought on themselves) deal with it...

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,692
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    But pensioners would have to pay more tax for Mrs F to be done the decent by.

    Edit: not aimed at BigG, I hasten to add - just referring to the general agreement on PB that the tax burden is unfairly on the working population.
    Well, they will be waiting a long time for there surgery, judging by the shortages of staff across the places she works.

    Up the road in Nottingham they were cancelling some chemotherapy sessions this last week due to lack of nursing staff.

    https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/nottingham-news/cancer-patients-missing-out-treatment-5948038.amp
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,854
    This thread has run out of petrol ... and pigs in blankets.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,578
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    I certainly won’t be.

    Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
    Indeed, and I think police got nothing this year too.

    How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
    Classroom discipline enforced at bayonet point?

    (Don't suggest it to the Daily Mail!)
  • Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    I certainly won’t be.

    Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
    Indeed, and I think police got nothing this year too.

    How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
    According to this, nada;

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8037/

    And I wouldn't be holding my breath for much in the next few years, given how tight the spending envelope is.

    Certain irony in the government extolling the virtues of high wages, except for the ones they are directly responsible for.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    new thread
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,692
    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    While you are there, Foxy, how much would the Treasury need to find to fund the NHS properly so that doctors and patients all felt OK about it? And how much more is that than is currently spent?

    I don't think it is primarily about money. The reasons that we have lost so many nurses is not primarily about pay. Rather like the HGV drivers it is about the wider picture. Similarly for medical staff.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,518
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Did someone say "odds"?




    Scope Davies
    @deadlyvices

    Replying to @JohnRentoul and @ProfTimBale

    What are the odds that we end up with a hung parliament, again?


    Tim Bale @ProfTimBale

    Longer than they used to be, I suspect. Stranger things, etc. But not many parties blow an 80 seat majority in one go.

    The 2.4 on Betfair for a Con majority looks excellent value.
    If it didn't require tying money up for 2+ years I would be on it.

    Remember the Tories are starting from a (real) majority of 100-110 seats once you understand the impact of Farage at the last election.
    Labour to win: virtually impossible. (126 seats)
    Tories to lose majority: perfectly plausible. Only 40 seats required.
    Labour win 30-35 of their traditional seats back.
    LD win 10 seats by standing with a USP of rejoin.
    SNP win 3 off Tories.
    Done. It's a 40% chance.

    All reckoning needs to take account of Black Swans. But there is a well known old White Swan gently swimming into view (see posts above). It's called inflation, interest rates, mortgages, foreclosures, London and SE. And this more than anything else will be keeping Boris awake.

  • Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    While you are there, Foxy, how much would the Treasury need to find to fund the NHS properly so that doctors and patients all felt OK about it? And how much more is that than is currently spent?

    I don't think it is primarily about money. The reasons that we have lost so many nurses is not primarily about pay. Rather like the HGV drivers it is about the wider picture. Similarly for medical staff.
    Tend to agree- the amount you'd have to pay me to get back into the classroom full time would be absurd and unsustainable- we're talking "Waitrose drivers paid more than MPs" levels of stupid.

    But the things that would make a difference- don't squeeze me out on a regular basis, ensure I have tools to do a good job- are much harder to achieve and communicate.

    So they don't happen.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,420
    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    While you are there, Foxy, how much would the Treasury need to find to fund the NHS properly so that doctors and patients all felt OK about it? And how much more is that than is currently spent?

    I don't think it is primarily about money. The reasons that we have lost so many nurses is not primarily about pay. Rather like the HGV drivers it is about the wider picture. Similarly for medical staff.
    And teachers.

    We’re not badly paid, just seriously fucked off with the conditions and being endlessly pontificated to by the DfE, OFSTED, OFQUAL and sundry losers like Topping about how awful we are for wanting to sleep and see our families occasionally.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,628
    isam said:

    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    ping said:

    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    Sounds dodgy af

    Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
    I tweeted ISPOS-MORI to see if they knew anything about it. I was going to warn people on the local facebook page, but thought I had better check first

    Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
    Do let us know what comes of it - this is utterly absurd either way.
    Will do. I just told my girlfriend and she as lost for words! How many older, gullible people might have been taken in? What on earth is the upside to agreeing to it?
    I did wonder what the spiel might have been for a different category of mark (assuming you don't look particularly gullible).
    Wearing a facemask too, outside in the pouring rain w a brolly. Was that to not be identified by people who have those RING doorbells perhaps?
    Any ID? Lack thereof would be a real warning signal.
    He did show a card, but very quickly and it looked all blurry. Could be legit, you never know. But I think unlikely

    Fair play to him if he is legit - its absolutely pissing down!
    That's an interesting one. Years ago, we took part in a long-term survey by IPSOS-MORI - not that sort of thing, but an in-the-home thing. He turned up at our door, in quite a similar manner. It was legit.

    Might it be the Travel Survey from the following?
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/measurement-out-home-audiences
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    ping said:

    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    Sounds dodgy af

    Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it was genuine, too. Polling companies have got away with seriously dodgy behaviour for ages. I’m amazed anyone interacts with them any more.
    I tweeted ISPOS-MORI to see if they knew anything about it. I was going to warn people on the local facebook page, but thought I had better check first

    Cant be legit can it? Literally telling strangers when you've gone out and how far away you are from home?!
    Do let us know what comes of it - this is utterly absurd either way.
    Will do. I just told my girlfriend and she as lost for words! How many older, gullible people might have been taken in? What on earth is the upside to agreeing to it?
    I did wonder what the spiel might have been for a different category of mark (assuming you don't look particularly gullible).
    Wearing a facemask too, outside in the pouring rain w a brolly. Was that to not be identified by people who have those RING doorbells perhaps?
    Any ID? Lack thereof would be a real warning signal.
    He did show a card, but very quickly and it looked all blurry. Could be legit, you never know. But I think unlikely

    Fair play to him if he is legit - its absolutely pissing down!
    That's an interesting one. Years ago, we took part in a long-term survey by IPSOS-MORI - not that sort of thing, but an in-the-home thing. He turned up at our door, in quite a similar manner. It was legit.

    Might it be the Travel Survey from the following?
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/measurement-out-home-audiences
    It might well have been that
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,309
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    While you are there, Foxy, how much would the Treasury need to find to fund the NHS properly so that doctors and patients all felt OK about it? And how much more is that than is currently spent?

    I don't think it is primarily about money. The reasons that we have lost so many nurses is not primarily about pay. Rather like the HGV drivers it is about the wider picture. Similarly for medical staff.
    And teachers.

    We’re not badly paid, just seriously fucked off with the conditions and being endlessly pontificated to by the DfE, OFSTED, OFQUAL and sundry losers like Topping about how awful we are for wanting to sleep and see our families occasionally.
    All the private school teachers I know say that they don't get much more money (if at all) than the state sector. It's generally a reduction in fuckwittery in management, clearer targets, resources to achieve them and the fact that all the pupils want to be there, that they bring up as the reasons why....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,309

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    While you are there, Foxy, how much would the Treasury need to find to fund the NHS properly so that doctors and patients all felt OK about it? And how much more is that than is currently spent?

    I don't think it is primarily about money. The reasons that we have lost so many nurses is not primarily about pay. Rather like the HGV drivers it is about the wider picture. Similarly for medical staff.
    Tend to agree- the amount you'd have to pay me to get back into the classroom full time would be absurd and unsustainable- we're talking "Waitrose drivers paid more than MPs" levels of stupid.

    But the things that would make a difference- don't squeeze me out on a regular basis, ensure I have tools to do a good job- are much harder to achieve and communicate.

    So they don't happen.
    Interesting to compare this with IT inside banks. Enormous efforts have been put in to reduce the pyramid of fuckwits, improve provision of internal services - stuff like single-sign-on-to-everything. It's almost as if people were trying to remove impediments to work.

    The upper middle class world of work, where big issues include when the chair setup guy can help you setup your new Herman Miller chair.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,420

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    While you are there, Foxy, how much would the Treasury need to find to fund the NHS properly so that doctors and patients all felt OK about it? And how much more is that than is currently spent?

    I don't think it is primarily about money. The reasons that we have lost so many nurses is not primarily about pay. Rather like the HGV drivers it is about the wider picture. Similarly for medical staff.
    And teachers.

    We’re not badly paid, just seriously fucked off with the conditions and being endlessly pontificated to by the DfE, OFSTED, OFQUAL and sundry losers like Topping about how awful we are for wanting to sleep and see our families occasionally.
    All the private school teachers I know say that they don't get much more money (if at all) than the state sector. It's generally a reduction in fuckwittery in management, clearer targets, resources to achieve them and the fact that all the pupils want to be there, that they bring up as the reasons why....
    Varies according to the school though. Believe me, you wouldn’t want to work at the private school here in Cannock because no manager in the state sector would survive five minutes if they ran their school the way that one is run. It’s responsible for about 30% of all my Union’s local casework.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,309
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    While you are there, Foxy, how much would the Treasury need to find to fund the NHS properly so that doctors and patients all felt OK about it? And how much more is that than is currently spent?

    I don't think it is primarily about money. The reasons that we have lost so many nurses is not primarily about pay. Rather like the HGV drivers it is about the wider picture. Similarly for medical staff.
    And teachers.

    We’re not badly paid, just seriously fucked off with the conditions and being endlessly pontificated to by the DfE, OFSTED, OFQUAL and sundry losers like Topping about how awful we are for wanting to sleep and see our families occasionally.
    All the private school teachers I know say that they don't get much more money (if at all) than the state sector. It's generally a reduction in fuckwittery in management, clearer targets, resources to achieve them and the fact that all the pupils want to be there, that they bring up as the reasons why....
    Varies according to the school though. Believe me, you wouldn’t want to work at the private school here in Cannock because no manager in the state sector would survive five minutes if they ran their school the way that one is run. It’s responsible for about 30% of all my Union’s local casework.
    I'm sure it does. Fuckwittery is not a state/private thing.... just that some private schools can create a decent teaching environment.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited October 2021
    isam said:

    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    I reckon you should tell him nicely that you want to waste time at your own volition, PB say.

    That reminds me that I have received hundreds of letters over the decades written in pseudo legal lingo that I will be visited at some point by a tv license inspector etc etc. If one ever comes I'll him/her that I've never owned a tele (though fixed quite a few) and am wasting both our times talking about it.
This discussion has been closed.