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Fear and Loathing in Las Élysée: France 2022 – politicalbetting.com
Fear and Loathing in Las Élysée: France 2022 – politicalbetting.com
After last weekend the EU can finally stop putting off decisions until after the German election and start putting them off until after the French election. Very much on the horizon, voters go to the polls in April 2022 to determine if Emmanuel Macron will win a second term or who his replacement will be.
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On the substance of Q's analysis - the revolution eats its own?
Not that it really does now...granted.
Zemmour has taken share from Le Pen, but their combined total is just 31%. You would have to see an awful lot of fragmentation for them to be the first two candidates.
He's fishing in the same pool as Ms Le Pen, but he's simultaneously smarter (intellectually) and dumber (politically). Ms Le Pen has allowed herself to be flanked by casting aside her euroscepticism.
Basically, his rise increases the chance that someone unelectable faces Macron.
https://news.sky.com/story/sarah-everard-murder-boris-johnson-says-infuriating-police-arent-taking-violence-against-women-seriously-enough-12423291
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/backlog-crown-court-criminal-cases-172331708.html
This is all sounding a bit Clinton/Trump early 2016.
Mr. 86, not if they want to tick the right diversity boxes.
Only a gay black man could possibly succeed a lesbian.
Somebody suggested the other day that maybe she needs more time to understand and deal with the problems. She’s been in office for almost five years and shows no sign of doing either. That’s discounting her having been a senior presence in the Met for two decades. How long does she need?
The reality is that you have third rate nobodies who fail upwards under this government because they either are too cronyist or too lazy to do the right thing.* Amanda Spielman, Dido Harding, Dominic Cummings are other examples. Spielman has also had her car crash tenure extended at OFSTED so she can get to grips with the problems created by the new curriculum she imposed on us while at OFQUAL.
Far better to get a complete outsider in. See if perhaps a senior Canadian officer might be interested.
*I know which one my money would be on.
To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?
Khan may just be scared of being out on a limb.
Of course she may be a latter day J Edgar Hoover and have compromising photos of all three. But even though I dislike and distrust Dick I think that most unlikely.
To clear the backlog of cases that need to go to trial?
To run the Met?
To run the government?
I've mused before on the Peronist tendencies of BoJo, but we're surely nowhere near that particular rabbit hole.
Dick would have a better defence if she made some public statements of intent how she was going to root out misogyny and the people who obstructed the Morgan investigation etc.
If someone as poor as Dick is in post - and continues to be protected - what hope do we ever have with reform of our public institutions
The simplest explanation is they all believe she is best for the job, not that they are seeking to avoid a pile on because they are grown up.
I must have been listening to a separate response from the met, because 6 months to come up with that apology - with no sense of plan to address confidence - was god awful.
I hope I never see a failure.
Yes, this needs to be about more than one individual but it is simply astonishing that people think somebody who has consistently failed over decades is now magically the solution to this terrible problem.
This is quite a story
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/16306671/french-cops-shoot-migrants-rubber-bullets-dunkirk-stop-dinghy/
(Suspect we will see a small force deployed sector by sector as a salve, hopefully in a rather more coordinated manner than hitherto.)
Good morning, everyone. I recommend that said loons (none on PB obvs) have a tot of whiskey to calm their nerves.
More seriously, ignore for a moment historic issues with her and look at her recent tenure only - she's been in post years, is there evidence the force is moving in the right direction on this and other issues?
If yes, Itd make defence a bit more understandable though her past performances are relevant still. But have they made progress like that to give confidence she can deal with existing problems?
The question will be how many separate reports the met have had about Couzens, presumably through HR, and if no further action was taken.
I find it generally amazing many others seemed to have had concerns about him, but nothing was seemingly done…
Macron will beat any other candidate in the second round on current polling, including Le Pen who isn't included in this graphic.
Any discount on Macron's odds reflects there's still six months to go to the election and time for things to go wrong for him.
This is the sort of mindset in many organisations now where people you would hope would have a decent level of critical thinking shit down criticism and blame it on sex/race rather than think “maybe they aren’t as good as I think they are even though they are an old kicker of mine”…..
* this misfortune of listening to Ian Blair’s drivel and constant defence of the indefensible was repeated this morning where today interviewed him again and he was absolutely desperate that any policing review must be by police not a judge etc…..
I would also caution those who 'mock' this move that it may well be seen as a positive for HMG rather than the negative they hope for
Given how little you need to get to the final round, historically, there seems scope for that.
This is a London and South East issue
This is not over.
A small matter of $20 million of excess Election Expenses, which puts our 'problems' into context.
A French court Thursday imposed a one-year sentence on former president Nicolas Sarkozy after finding him guilty of illegal campaign financing for massive overspending on his 2012 re-election campaign. Sarkozy's lawyer said he would appeal. The verdict came six months after he was found guilty of corruption in a separate trial.
The court will allow the ex-president to serve the sentence at home by wearing an electronic monitoring bracelet.
Sarkozy, who spent nearly twice the legal limit on his failed bid for a second term in office, wasn't present at the Paris court for the announcement of the verdict.
....
A series of lavish US-style election rallies caused his costs to spiral, with the final bill coming to at least 42.8 million euros $49.7 million), nearly double the legal limit of 22.5 million euros.
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210930-former-french-president-sarkozy-found-guilty-of-illegal-campaign-financing
Demand is still probably high as well - quite a lot of those who had some fuel and ran tanks lower than they usually would last weekend because they couldn't be bothered queuing will be reaching the point now where they need the stuff they would have normally bought last week.
No hint of any issues anymore here. No queues, no disruption.
We were told this would be over in a few days. It isn’t. It’s not just panic.
If the other candidate is Bertrand, his most dangerous challenger, Macron will aim to get everyone who is left of him to choose him plus pick up a few right of centre voters, plus his 25%.
Barnier won't make it to the second round. That's as certain as anything can be in electoral predictions. He's unlikely to make it to the first vote either.
Not everyone fills their tank. Indeed its less fuel efficient if you do so this is quite deliberate for a lot of people.
There is an issue which is identified as mainly in London and the South East and the army drivers will no doubt help to alleviate it
So yes, tell people that they will be charged at least £30. If they need less than that, why are they in the queue?
Incidentally, still disruption round here with Rugeley affected although Cannock itself seems OK.
That's probably much more common than you realise.