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Fear and Loathing in Las Élysée: France 2022 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 2 in General
imageFear and Loathing in Las Élysée: France 2022 – politicalbetting.com

After last weekend the EU can finally stop putting off decisions until after the German election and start putting them off until after the French election. Very much on the horizon, voters go to the polls in April 2022 to determine if Emmanuel Macron will win a second term or who his replacement will be.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,418
    edited October 2
    Pendant Pundit Alert - believe title should be "LES ÉLYSÉE"

    On the substance of Q's analysis - the revolution eats its own?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,761

    Pendant Pundit Alert - believe title should be "LES ÉLYSÉE"

    On the substance of Q's analysis - the revolution eats its own?

    Yeah, but then it doesn't rhyme with 'Las Vegas'.

    Not that it really does now...granted.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,852
    This is sound advice.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,474
    In theory, if a credible mainstream challenger made gains at the expense of Macron, there could be a Le Pen-Zemmour run off.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,761

    In theory, if a credible mainstream challenger made gains at the expense of Macron, there could be a Le Pen-Zemmour run off.

    In theory, but requires a hell of the threading the needle of everyone's vote shares. Mind you, I reckon a lot of the mainstream would very reluctantly vote Le Pen in that scenario so both my bets would win!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209

    On the substance of Q's analysis - the revolution eats its own.

    As the English Nationalist Revolutionary Clown Party will discover. Vive la révolution!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209

    In theory, if a credible mainstream challenger made gains at the expense of Macron, there could be a Le Pen-Zemmour run off.

    Barnier was quite good on Hardtalk. But poor polling.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,852

    In theory, if a credible mainstream challenger made gains at the expense of Macron, there could be a Le Pen-Zemmour run off.

    Barnier was quite good on Hardtalk. But poor polling.
    Barnier and Zemmour are both running for the LR nomination.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,852

    In theory, if a credible mainstream challenger made gains at the expense of Macron, there could be a Le Pen-Zemmour run off.

    Possible, but, one would think quite unlikely.

    Zemmour has taken share from Le Pen, but their combined total is just 31%. You would have to see an awful lot of fragmentation for them to be the first two candidates.

  • FishingFishing Posts: 2,981

    On the substance of Q's analysis - the revolution eats its own.

    As the English Nationalist Revolutionary Clown Party will discover. Vive la révolution!
    I think it's far likelier that the Scots Nats will discover that if they ever get independence - indeed arguably Alex Salmond already has.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 2,981
    On topic, a Zemmour Presidency would doubtless be a disaster for France, but it would at least stop Europeans condescending to Americans about Trump. For about five seconds.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,797
    rcs1000 said:

    In theory, if a credible mainstream challenger made gains at the expense of Macron, there could be a Le Pen-Zemmour run off.

    Barnier was quite good on Hardtalk. But poor polling.
    Barnier and Zemmour are both running for the LR nomination.
    Didnt know that re Zemmour. Do you have a link?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,852

    rcs1000 said:

    In theory, if a credible mainstream challenger made gains at the expense of Macron, there could be a Le Pen-Zemmour run off.

    Barnier was quite good on Hardtalk. But poor polling.
    Barnier and Zemmour are both running for the LR nomination.
    Didnt know that re Zemmour. Do you have a link?
    He's the French Carlson Tucker. He wrote a book called The French Suicide (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_French_Suicide) about how the French were committing national suicide by becoming more feminine.

    He's fishing in the same pool as Ms Le Pen, but he's simultaneously smarter (intellectually) and dumber (politically). Ms Le Pen has allowed herself to be flanked by casting aside her euroscepticism.

    Basically, his rise increases the chance that someone unelectable faces Macron.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,797
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In theory, if a credible mainstream challenger made gains at the expense of Macron, there could be a Le Pen-Zemmour run off.

    Barnier was quite good on Hardtalk. But poor polling.
    Barnier and Zemmour are both running for the LR nomination.
    Didnt know that re Zemmour. Do you have a link?
    He's the French Carlson Tucker. He wrote a book called The French Suicide (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_French_Suicide) about how the French were committing national suicide by becoming more feminine.

    He's fishing in the same pool as Ms Le Pen, but he's simultaneously smarter (intellectually) and dumber (politically). Ms Le Pen has allowed herself to be flanked by casting aside her euroscepticism.

    Basically, his rise increases the chance that someone unelectable faces Macron.
    Thanks. The recent opinion polls have quoted three separate sets of figures depending on whether Bertrand, Pecresse or Barnier get the LR nomination. All have Zemmour quoted separately. So they don't seem to think that Zemmour is going for the LR candidacy.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,209
    Excellent header as always. Love the opening line.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,475
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,606
    The french Robert Kilroy Silk
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,606
    Imagine our politics being a run off between Clegg, Farage and Kilroy Silk.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,970
    I think that if Le Pen had a different name she could win.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,606

    I think that if Le Pen had a different name she could win.

    Would you vote for her in the run off?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,256
    Andy_JS said:
    The interesting part of that linked story is that Boris also says cases are not getting to court quickly enough. The Ministry of Justice has just revealed the crown court backlog is at an all-time high, up to two years for some cases. (Admittedly, all-time means since 2014 when records began.)
    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/backlog-crown-court-criminal-cases-172331708.html
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,691
    I don't see Le Pen ever winning and Macron's best chance surely has to be if he gets to take her on again and most of France end up backing him, however reluctantly. I think if someone like Barnier can gain control of the Republican party Macron will be in a lot more trouble. A run off against Barnier would be highly problematic for him. In fact I think that he would lose.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,887
    DavidL said:

    I don't see Le Pen ever winning and Macron's best chance surely has to be if he gets to take her on again and most of France end up backing him, however reluctantly. I think if someone like Barnier can gain control of the Republican party Macron will be in a lot more trouble. A run off against Barnier would be highly problematic for him. In fact I think that he would lose.

    Yes, if a sane right winger makes the final 2 they will win. Too much support for the nutters though, so only one electable candidate in the final 2. Same problem as America.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,887
    DavidL said:

    I don't see Le Pen ever winning and Macron's best chance surely has to be if he gets to take her on again and most of France end up backing him, however reluctantly. I think if someone like Barnier can gain control of the Republican party Macron will be in a lot more trouble. A run off against Barnier would be highly problematic for him. In fact I think that he would lose.

    I like Barnier and think he would be a great President, but he doesn't look likely to get the LR nomination.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 745
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I don't see Le Pen ever winning and Macron's best chance surely has to be if he gets to take her on again and most of France end up backing him, however reluctantly. I think if someone like Barnier can gain control of the Republican party Macron will be in a lot more trouble. A run off against Barnier would be highly problematic for him. In fact I think that he would lose.

    Yes, if a sane right winger makes the final 2 they will win. Too much support for the nutters though, so only one electable candidate in the final 2. Same problem as America.
    Hang on...

    This is all sounding a bit Clinton/Trump early 2016.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,684
    V useful header. Thanks @Quincel
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,684
    One day, and may not be so far away, the cordon sanitaire will fail to lock out the radical or far right and France will have their Trump.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,684

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In theory, if a credible mainstream challenger made gains at the expense of Macron, there could be a Le Pen-Zemmour run off.

    Barnier was quite good on Hardtalk. But poor polling.
    Barnier and Zemmour are both running for the LR nomination.
    Didnt know that re Zemmour. Do you have a link?
    He's the French Carlson Tucker. He wrote a book called The French Suicide (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_French_Suicide) about how the French were committing national suicide by becoming more feminine.

    He's fishing in the same pool as Ms Le Pen, but he's simultaneously smarter (intellectually) and dumber (politically). Ms Le Pen has allowed herself to be flanked by casting aside her euroscepticism.

    Basically, his rise increases the chance that someone unelectable faces Macron.
    Thanks. The recent opinion polls have quoted three separate sets of figures depending on whether Bertrand, Pecresse or Barnier get the LR nomination. All have Zemmour quoted separately. So they don't seem to think that Zemmour is going for the LR candidacy.
    The wiki entry on these elections does not list Zemmour in the LR race.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,248
    Jonathan said:

    The french Robert Kilroy Silk

    Does he have orange skin and a silly voice as well?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,683
    Don't panic! The Army is coming....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,209
    On Cressida Dick, something occurred to me this morning. I wonder if the reason she’s still got a job is because there isn’t a woman available to replace her. Let’s be honest, they can’t appoint a man to sort this out, can they?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,375
    Andy_JS said:
    But it's the fault of the justice system.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,490
    It would be nice if there were a French site like PB with informed discussion of French politics. Similarly other countries.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,797

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In theory, if a credible mainstream challenger made gains at the expense of Macron, there could be a Le Pen-Zemmour run off.

    Barnier was quite good on Hardtalk. But poor polling.
    Barnier and Zemmour are both running for the LR nomination.
    Didnt know that re Zemmour. Do you have a link?
    He's the French Carlson Tucker. He wrote a book called The French Suicide (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_French_Suicide) about how the French were committing national suicide by becoming more feminine.

    He's fishing in the same pool as Ms Le Pen, but he's simultaneously smarter (intellectually) and dumber (politically). Ms Le Pen has allowed herself to be flanked by casting aside her euroscepticism.

    Basically, his rise increases the chance that someone unelectable faces Macron.
    Thanks. The recent opinion polls have quoted three separate sets of figures depending on whether Bertrand, Pecresse or Barnier get the LR nomination. All have Zemmour quoted separately. So they don't seem to think that Zemmour is going for the LR candidacy.
    The wiki entry on these elections does not list Zemmour in the LR race.
    No, I've yet to see him mentioned as a possible contender for them so I was interested to see any link that suggested otherwise.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,993
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. 86, not if they want to tick the right diversity boxes.

    Only a gay black man could possibly succeed a lesbian.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,248
    edited October 2
    tlg86 said:

    On Cressida Dick, something occurred to me this morning. I wonder if the reason she’s still got a job is because there isn’t a woman available to replace her. Let’s be honest, they can’t appoint a man to sort this out, can they?

    Well, there probably isn’t but given she has been a pretty abject failure by any standard I don’t see that as relevant.

    Somebody suggested the other day that maybe she needs more time to understand and deal with the problems. She’s been in office for almost five years and shows no sign of doing either. That’s discounting her having been a senior presence in the Met for two decades. How long does she need?

    The reality is that you have third rate nobodies who fail upwards under this government because they either are too cronyist or too lazy to do the right thing.* Amanda Spielman, Dido Harding, Dominic Cummings are other examples. Spielman has also had her car crash tenure extended at OFSTED so she can get to grips with the problems created by the new curriculum she imposed on us while at OFQUAL.

    Far better to get a complete outsider in. See if perhaps a senior Canadian officer might be interested.

    *I know which one my money would be on.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,937
    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,797

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    It's a strange one isn't it. Patel you can understand because it would be admitting an error. The other two?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,248

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    It's a strange one isn't it. Patel you can understand because it would be admitting an error. The other two?
    Starmer might be afraid of embarrassing revelations surrounding prosecution cockups during his time as DPP.

    Khan may just be scared of being out on a limb.

    Of course she may be a latter day J Edgar Hoover and have compromising photos of all three. But even though I dislike and distrust Dick I think that most unlikely.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,887

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    Yes, it is a bit fishy.



  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,209

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    It's a strange one isn't it. Patel you can understand because it would be admitting an error. The other two?
    Probably because Starmer and Khan are actually grownups. I think there is a case for Dick going, but it’s not helpful to pile on an individual in situations like this.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 745

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    I think it may be because she has their confidence; on the basis that they think she is good at the job. This Couzens case will be regarded a success: the judge said so himself, the best policing operation in 30 years, no evidence of the police closing ranks to protect one of their own, etc. And she has been apologetic and struck a concilitory tone, thus protecting the politicians from criticism; as many structural problems with policing will be rooted in issues to do with resourcing and political interference with its core work. So is the way of the world.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,026
    IanB2 said:

    Don't panic! The Army is coming....

    For what?

    To clear the backlog of cases that need to go to trial?

    To run the Met?

    To run the government?

    I've mused before on the Peronist tendencies of BoJo, but we're surely nowhere near that particular rabbit hole.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,887
    tlg86 said:

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    It's a strange one isn't it. Patel you can understand because it would be admitting an error. The other two?
    Probably because Starmer and Khan are actually grownups. I think there is a case for Dick going, but it’s not helpful to pile on an individual in situations like this.
    I agree that there is some scapegoating going on.

    Dick would have a better defence if she made some public statements of intent how she was going to root out misogyny and the people who obstructed the Morgan investigation etc.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,256
    darkage said:

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    I think it may be because she has their confidence; on the basis that they think she is good at the job. This Couzens case will be regarded a success: the judge said so himself, the best policing operation in 30 years, no evidence of the police closing ranks to protect one of their own, etc. And she has been apologetic and struck a concilitory tone, thus protecting the politicians from criticism; as many structural problems with policing will be rooted in issues to do with resourcing and political interference with its core work. So is the way of the world.
    Yes. I suggested in yesterday's thread that it may be that politicians from both parties – Prime Minister, Home Secretary, Mayor of London – have faith in the Commissioner's ability to deal with other structural issues resulting from a legacy of police cuts and the increased slog of modern investigations (not to mention watching XR/IB glue dry) as well as increased gang warfare in London. Both recent high-profile murders of women, Sarah Everard and Sabina Nessa, led to charges being brought within a week. And note that Boris explicitly linked police culture to the breakdown of the courts system.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,470
    Yes, I can see it being helpful having an individual with a terrible track record lead an organisation as important as the met through its worse crisis for some time.

    If someone as poor as Dick is in post - and continues to be protected - what hope do we ever have with reform of our public institutions
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,606
    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915
    edited October 2
    tlg86 said:

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    It's a strange one isn't it. Patel you can understand because it would be admitting an error. The other two?
    Probably because Starmer and Khan are actually grownups. I think there is a case for Dick going, but it’s not helpful to pile on an individual in situations like this.
    Why? If theres a case for her going and they agree with it a grown up would make the case, not back her. How is it grown up to not speak up about concerns, if they have them?

    The simplest explanation is they all believe she is best for the job, not that they are seeking to avoid a pile on because they are grown up.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,470
    darkage said:

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    I think it may be because she has their confidence; on the basis that they think she is good at the job. This Couzens case will be regarded a success: the judge said so himself, the best policing operation in 30 years, no evidence of the police closing ranks to protect one of their own, etc. And she has been apologetic and struck a concilitory tone, thus protecting the politicians from criticism; as many structural problems with policing will be rooted in issues to do with resourcing and political interference with its core work. So is the way of the world.
    A “good” response from the police - just a multiple number of failures leading up the case itself. Had they taken that seriously, we’d not be in this position.

    I must have been listening to a separate response from the met, because 6 months to come up with that apology - with no sense of plan to address confidence - was god awful.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,505
    kle4 said:


    The simplest explanation is they all believe she is best for the job.

    How damning is that then? The ranks of top coppers even more lacking in talent than the ranks of top politicians.....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,256
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    It's a strange one isn't it. Patel you can understand because it would be admitting an error. The other two?
    Probably because Starmer and Khan are actually grownups. I think there is a case for Dick going, but it’s not helpful to pile on an individual in situations like this.
    I agree that there is some scapegoating going on.

    Dick would have a better defence if she made some public statements of intent how she was going to root out misogyny and the people who obstructed the Morgan investigation etc.
    Daniel Morgan was murdered in 1987. 34 years ago. What would you have the Commissioner do? Take back detectives' retirement gold watches? The inquiry reported this year and I dare say either its recommendations will be enacted or at least warm words can be published about intent to enact them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,248

    darkage said:

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    I think it may be because she has their confidence; on the basis that they think she is good at the job. This Couzens case will be regarded a success: the judge said so himself, the best policing operation in 30 years, no evidence of the police closing ranks to protect one of their own, etc. And she has been apologetic and struck a concilitory tone, thus protecting the politicians from criticism; as many structural problems with policing will be rooted in issues to do with resourcing and political interference with its core work. So is the way of the world.
    Yes. I suggested in yesterday's thread that it may be that politicians from both parties – Prime Minister, Home Secretary, Mayor of London – have faith in the Commissioner's ability to deal with other structural issues resulting from a legacy of police cuts and the increased slog of modern investigations (not to mention watching XR/IB glue dry) as well as increased gang warfare in London. Both recent high-profile murders of women, Sarah Everard and Sabina Nessa, led to charges being brought within a week. And note that Boris explicitly linked police culture to the breakdown of the courts system.
    They managed to track down the holders of one of their own phones in a week and that is a success?

    I hope I never see a failure.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,248
    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    It's a strange one isn't it. Patel you can understand because it would be admitting an error. The other two?
    Probably because Starmer and Khan are actually grownups. I think there is a case for Dick going, but it’s not helpful to pile on an individual in situations like this.
    Why? If theres a case for her going and they agree with it a grown up would make the case, not back her. How is it grown up to not speak up about concerns, if they have them?

    The simplest explanation is they all believe she is best for the job, not that they are seeking to avoid a pile on because they are grown up.
    If that is true, then we clearly have a serious talent shortage at the top of the Met.

    Yes, this needs to be about more than one individual but it is simply astonishing that people think somebody who has consistently failed over decades is now magically the solution to this terrible problem.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    It's a strange one isn't it. Patel you can understand because it would be admitting an error. The other two?
    Probably because Starmer and Khan are actually grownups. I think there is a case for Dick going, but it’s not helpful to pile on an individual in situations like this.
    I agree that there is some scapegoating going on.

    Dick would have a better defence if she made some public statements of intent how she was going to root out misogyny and the people who obstructed the Morgan investigation etc.
    The inquiry reported this year and I dare say either its recommendations will be enacted or at least warm words can be published about intent to enact them.
    Dont be so sure, sometimes they don't even bother with the latter.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,256

    darkage said:

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    I think it may be because she has their confidence; on the basis that they think she is good at the job. This Couzens case will be regarded a success: the judge said so himself, the best policing operation in 30 years, no evidence of the police closing ranks to protect one of their own, etc. And she has been apologetic and struck a concilitory tone, thus protecting the politicians from criticism; as many structural problems with policing will be rooted in issues to do with resourcing and political interference with its core work. So is the way of the world.
    A “good” response from the police - just a multiple number of failures leading up the case itself. Had they taken that seriously, we’d not be in this position.

    I must have been listening to a separate response from the met, because 6 months to come up with that apology - with no sense of plan to address confidence - was god awful.
    Sub judice perhaps? And the failures around Couzens relate mostly to the absence of vetting. The flashing incident and the rapist nickname came from other forces, not the Met itself. Should the police have known Couzens was deep in debt? Perhaps but hands up whose employer has routine access to their bank accounts.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 45,116
    Jonathan said:

    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.

    Not around here
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,074
    edited October 2

    IanB2 said:

    Don't panic! The Army is coming....

    For what?

    To clear the backlog of cases that need to go to trial?

    To run the Met?

    To run the government?

    I've mused before on the Peronist tendencies of BoJo, but we're surely nowhere near that particular rabbit hole.
    To assuage the self-panicked loons in Remainer-central :smile: .

    (Suspect we will see a small force deployed sector by sector as a salve, hopefully in a rather more coordinated manner than hitherto.)

    Good morning, everyone. I recommend that said loons (none on PB obvs) have a tot of whiskey to calm their nerves.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915
    edited October 2
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    It's a strange one isn't it. Patel you can understand because it would be admitting an error. The other two?
    Probably because Starmer and Khan are actually grownups. I think there is a case for Dick going, but it’s not helpful to pile on an individual in situations like this.
    Why? If theres a case for her going and they agree with it a grown up would make the case, not back her. How is it grown up to not speak up about concerns, if they have them?

    The simplest explanation is they all believe she is best for the job, not that they are seeking to avoid a pile on because they are grown up.
    If that is true, then we clearly have a serious talent shortage at the top of the Met.

    Yes, this needs to be about more than one individual but it is simply astonishing that people think somebody who has consistently failed over decades is now magically the solution to this terrible problem.
    It is a very politician attitude. If things are going well it's no time for a change obviously. If things are going badly, well, you dont want to make a change in the middle of a problem and put in someone inexperienced do you?

    More seriously, ignore for a moment historic issues with her and look at her recent tenure only - she's been in post years, is there evidence the force is moving in the right direction on this and other issues?

    If yes, Itd make defence a bit more understandable though her past performances are relevant still. But have they made progress like that to give confidence she can deal with existing problems?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,597

    Jonathan said:

    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.

    Not around here
    Next time there is a story about RNLI or somesuch perhaps it would be helpful if everyone inland says not a problem here.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,256
    To be clear, I think Cressida Dick should resign, and also that she should not have been appointed in the first place. But I am seeking to understand why she is supported by the Home Secretary and Mayor of London, from the starting point that they are rational.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,470

    darkage said:

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    I think it may be because she has their confidence; on the basis that they think she is good at the job. This Couzens case will be regarded a success: the judge said so himself, the best policing operation in 30 years, no evidence of the police closing ranks to protect one of their own, etc. And she has been apologetic and struck a concilitory tone, thus protecting the politicians from criticism; as many structural problems with policing will be rooted in issues to do with resourcing and political interference with its core work. So is the way of the world.
    A “good” response from the police - just a multiple number of failures leading up the case itself. Had they taken that seriously, we’d not be in this position.

    I must have been listening to a separate response from the met, because 6 months to come up with that apology - with no sense of plan to address confidence - was god awful.
    Sub judice perhaps? And the failures around Couzens relate mostly to the absence of vetting. The flashing incident and the rapist nickname came from other forces, not the Met itself. Should the police have known Couzens was deep in debt? Perhaps but hands up whose employer has routine access to their bank accounts.
    Surely a case of better information sharing? If met is unable to get its hands on other police force intel..

    The question will be how many separate reports the met have had about Couzens, presumably through HR, and if no further action was taken.

    I find it generally amazing many others seemed to have had concerns about him, but nothing was seemingly done…
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,870
    edited October 2
    The system is set up for Macron to be re-elected. The other second round candidate is still likely to be Le Pen because the remaining right (and indeed left) candidates can't agree a primary process to consolidate on just one being put forward to the first vote.

    Macron will beat any other candidate in the second round on current polling, including Le Pen who isn't included in this graphic.

    Any discount on Macron's odds reflects there's still six months to go to the election and time for things to go wrong for him.



  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,597
    tlg86 said:

    On Cressida Dick, something occurred to me this morning. I wonder if the reason she’s still got a job is because there isn’t a woman available to replace her. Let’s be honest, they can’t appoint a man to sort this out, can they?

    I believe Gavin Williamson is unexpectedly available.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 92
    tlg86 said:

    On Cressida Dick, something occurred to me this morning. I wonder if the reason she’s still got a job is because there isn’t a woman available to replace her. Let’s be honest, they can’t appoint a man to sort this out, can they?

    I had the displeasure a couple of months ago to hear the Today programme interviewing Ian Blair* about the potential reappointment of Dick and he seriously opined that he thought the criticism was because she is a woman!

    This is the sort of mindset in many organisations now where people you would hope would have a decent level of critical thinking shit down criticism and blame it on sex/race rather than think “maybe they aren’t as good as I think they are even though they are an old kicker of mine”…..

    * this misfortune of listening to Ian Blair’s drivel and constant defence of the indefensible was repeated this morning where today interviewed him again and he was absolutely desperate that any policing review must be by police not a judge etc…..
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 45,116
    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Don't panic! The Army is coming....

    For what?

    To clear the backlog of cases that need to go to trial?

    To run the Met?

    To run the government?

    I've mused before on the Peronist tendencies of BoJo, but we're surely nowhere near that particular rabbit hole.
    To assuage the self-panicked loons in Remainer-central :smile: .

    (Suspect we will see a small force deployed sector by sector as a salve, hopefully in a rather more coordinated manner than hitherto.)

    Good morning, everyone.
    The issues seem to be mainly in London and the South East where I expect the army drivers will be deployed

    I would also caution those who 'mock' this move that it may well be seen as a positive for HMG rather than the negative they hope for
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915
    On France, I hope for I hope on all foreign elections - the funniest outcome which is not genuinely destructive.

    Given how little you need to get to the final round, historically, there seems scope for that.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 45,116

    Jonathan said:

    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.

    Not around here
    Next time there is a story about RNLI or somesuch perhaps it would be helpful if everyone inland says not a problem here.
    It is not a problem for large parts of the country and not only was that evidenced on here yesterday but confirmed by the media

    This is a London and South East issue
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 1,114

    Jonathan said:

    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.

    Not around here
    Next time there is a story about RNLI or somesuch perhaps it would be helpful if everyone inland says not a problem here.
    It is not a problem for large parts of the country and not only was that evidenced on here yesterday but confirmed by the media

    This is a London and South East issue
    Still problems here in Aberdeenshire, Ali.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 29,604

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Don't panic! The Army is coming....

    For what?

    To clear the backlog of cases that need to go to trial?

    To run the Met?

    To run the government?

    I've mused before on the Peronist tendencies of BoJo, but we're surely nowhere near that particular rabbit hole.
    To assuage the self-panicked loons in Remainer-central :smile: .

    (Suspect we will see a small force deployed sector by sector as a salve, hopefully in a rather more coordinated manner than hitherto.)

    Good morning, everyone.
    The issues seem to be mainly in London and the South East where I expect the army drivers will be deployed

    I would also caution those who 'mock' this move that it may well be seen as a positive for HMG rather than the negative they hope for
    Personally I’d caution those cheerleading this move as it may well be seen as a negative for HMG rather than the positive they hope for, but chacun à son goût.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,606
    edited October 2

    Jonathan said:

    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.

    Not around here
    Next time there is a story about RNLI or somesuch perhaps it would be helpful if everyone inland says not a problem here.
    It is not a problem for large parts of the country and not only was that evidenced on here yesterday but confirmed by the media

    This is a London and South East issue
    That doesn’t diminish the problem or put fuel in your tank. Since my father in law was admitted last week through A&E, managing fuel is a stress we could do without. But hey BigG sees this as not a problem because he’s alright Jack.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,597

    Jonathan said:

    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.

    Not around here
    Next time there is a story about RNLI or somesuch perhaps it would be helpful if everyone inland says not a problem here.
    It is not a problem for large parts of the country and not only was that evidenced on here yesterday but confirmed by the media

    This is a London and South East issue
    Yes, at the moment we are still part of the UK too, not in France, so some empathy instead of pretending everything is fine would not hurt. Tens if not hundreds of thousands of people, ordinary people like taxi drivers, plumbers, etc are still unable to go work because of this.

    This is not over.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,074
    On French Governments, I see that Mons. Sarkozy was just handed another year in prison. For some reason ex-Presidents seem to get their gaol sentences turned into not having to go to prison.

    A small matter of $20 million of excess Election Expenses, which puts our 'problems' into context.

    A French court Thursday imposed a one-year sentence on former president Nicolas Sarkozy after finding him guilty of illegal campaign financing for massive overspending on his 2012 re-election campaign. Sarkozy's lawyer said he would appeal. The verdict came six months after he was found guilty of corruption in a separate trial.

    The court will allow the ex-president to serve the sentence at home by wearing an electronic monitoring bracelet.

    Sarkozy, who spent nearly twice the legal limit on his failed bid for a second term in office, wasn't present at the Paris court for the announcement of the verdict.
    ....
    A series of lavish US-style election rallies caused his costs to spiral, with the final bill coming to at least 42.8 million euros $49.7 million), nearly double the legal limit of 22.5 million euros.

    https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210930-former-french-president-sarkozy-found-guilty-of-illegal-campaign-financing
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,505

    Jonathan said:

    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.

    Not around here
    Next time there is a story about RNLI or somesuch perhaps it would be helpful if everyone inland says not a problem here.
    Don't worry, there'll be plenty in the Meedja with coastal second homes....
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,196
    ydoethur said:

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    It's a strange one isn't it. Patel you can understand because it would be admitting an error. The other two?
    Starmer might be afraid of embarrassing revelations surrounding prosecution cockups during his time as DPP.

    Khan may just be scared of being out on a limb.

    Of course she may be a latter day J Edgar Hoover and have compromising photos of all three. But even though I dislike and distrust Dick I think that most unlikely.
    Or worse: a compromising photo of all three…
  • theProletheProle Posts: 537
    edited October 2
    Jonathan said:

    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.

    No, that's just what happens when you get a run on something that's delivered on a just in time basis. Because there isn't a lot of slack in the system, even after the panic subsidies it takes a while for the system to return to normal levels of stability.

    Demand is still probably high as well - quite a lot of those who had some fuel and ran tanks lower than they usually would last weekend because they couldn't be bothered queuing will be reaching the point now where they need the stuff they would have normally bought last week.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,597

    Excellent analysis by Pip. He's one of the shrewdist pundits we have.

    Amazing international breadth to his columns. I feel confident betting on UK and US politics but beyond that would be relying on the likes of this article.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 1,114

    Jonathan said:

    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.

    Not around here
    Next time there is a story about RNLI or somesuch perhaps it would be helpful if everyone inland says not a problem here.
    I see no ships!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,149
    Jonathan said:

    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.

    Same here - it does seem to be the case that an overstretched system is leading to local gaps while another area 50 miles away is fine. One local garage is trying to do its one "key workers first" scheme, with limits on sales for everyone who can't show they work for the NHS, but it's a bit mit and miss, and people keep coming back to top up so the queues are horrific.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,731

    Jonathan said:

    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.

    Not around here
    I wonder if any disruption is regional based upon customer behaviour, or brand-related based on a company being incompetent?

    No hint of any issues anymore here. No queues, no disruption.
  • Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    It's a strange one isn't it. Patel you can understand because it would be admitting an error. The other two?
    Probably because Starmer and Khan are actually grownups. I think there is a case for Dick going, but it’s not helpful to pile on an individual in situations like this.
    I agree that there is some scapegoating going on.

    Dick would have a better defence if she made some public statements of intent how she was going to root out misogyny and the people who obstructed the Morgan investigation etc.
    Daniel Morgan was murdered in 1987. 34 years ago. What would you have the Commissioner do? Take back detectives' retirement gold watches? The inquiry reported this year and I dare say either its recommendations will be enacted or at least warm words can be published about intent to enact them.
    The warm words and intent to act are already compromised by the fact Dick was identified as one of those who obstructed the inquiry.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,606
    theProle said:

    Jonathan said:

    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.

    No, that's just what happens when you get a run on something that's delivered on a just in time basis. Because there isn't a lot of slack in the system, even after the panic subsidies it takes a while for the system to return to normal levels of stability.
    Garage owners have no clue when they are getting a delivery. Scheduled deliveries are getting cancelled or not appearing. There is a supply issue.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,196
    My modest proposal for solving the problem of queues at petrol stations: a £30 minimum spend so that only those who actually need to fill up will do so.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,761

    Excellent analysis by Pip. He's one of the shrewdist pundits we have.

    *Blushes and hand-annotates business cards*
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,256

    darkage said:

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    I think it may be because she has their confidence; on the basis that they think she is good at the job. This Couzens case will be regarded a success: the judge said so himself, the best policing operation in 30 years, no evidence of the police closing ranks to protect one of their own, etc. And she has been apologetic and struck a concilitory tone, thus protecting the politicians from criticism; as many structural problems with policing will be rooted in issues to do with resourcing and political interference with its core work. So is the way of the world.
    A “good” response from the police - just a multiple number of failures leading up the case itself. Had they taken that seriously, we’d not be in this position.

    I must have been listening to a separate response from the met, because 6 months to come up with that apology - with no sense of plan to address confidence - was god awful.
    Sub judice perhaps? And the failures around Couzens relate mostly to the absence of vetting. The flashing incident and the rapist nickname came from other forces, not the Met itself. Should the police have known Couzens was deep in debt? Perhaps but hands up whose employer has routine access to their bank accounts.
    Surely a case of better information sharing? If met is unable to get its hands on other police force intel..

    The question will be how many separate reports the met have had about Couzens, presumably through HR, and if no further action was taken.

    I find it generally amazing many others seemed to have had concerns about him, but nothing was seemingly done…
    @StuartDickson made the case yesterday for a national police force but bear in mind the Met is already twice the size of Police Scotland.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,606
    We have one independent chain of garages with its own trucks and depot in Shoreham. They are keeping going, but do not have the capacity to pick up the slack left by gaps elsewhere.

    We were told this would be over in a few days. It isn’t. It’s not just panic.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,870
    edited October 2
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I don't see Le Pen ever winning and Macron's best chance surely has to be if he gets to take her on again and most of France end up backing him, however reluctantly. I think if someone like Barnier can gain control of the Republican party Macron will be in a lot more trouble. A run off against Barnier would be highly problematic for him. In fact I think that he would lose.

    Yes, if a sane right winger makes the final 2 they will win. Too much support for the nutters though, so only one electable candidate in the final 2. Same problem as America.
    Macron benefits from a solid block of about 25% who like him, which doesn't sound a lot but none of the current likely set of candidates apart from Le Pen has a similar following. For the rest of voters in the second round it's about which candidate you dislike least.

    If the other candidate is Bertrand, his most dangerous challenger, Macron will aim to get everyone who is left of him to choose him plus pick up a few right of centre voters, plus his 25%.

    Barnier won't make it to the second round. That's as certain as anything can be in electoral predictions. He's unlikely to make it to the first vote either.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,597

    Jonathan said:

    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.

    Same here - it does seem to be the case that an overstretched system is leading to local gaps while another area 50 miles away is fine. One local garage is trying to do its one "key workers first" scheme, with limits on sales for everyone who can't show they work for the NHS, but it's a bit mit and miss, and people keep coming back to top up so the queues are horrific.
    I'd expect a lot of people who commute by train or wfh Mon-Fri and couldn't fill up last weekend will be trying this weekend so might get another mini wave around areas that have been impacted throughout.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,248

    ydoethur said:

    I can’t figure out why Sadiq and Priti and Keir have all given their support to Dick.

    To the extent that it makes you wonder what we’re not being told?

    It's a strange one isn't it. Patel you can understand because it would be admitting an error. The other two?
    Starmer might be afraid of embarrassing revelations surrounding prosecution cockups during his time as DPP.

    Khan may just be scared of being out on a limb.

    Of course she may be a latter day J Edgar Hoover and have compromising photos of all three. But even though I dislike and distrust Dick I think that most unlikely.
    Or worse: a compromising photo of all three…
    Do you mind? I had breakfast less than an hour ago.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,731

    My modest proposal for solving the problem of queues at petrol stations: a £30 minimum spend so that only those who actually need to fill up will do so.

    The problem with that is you have a lot of drivers in the system who only fill up when they actually need to do so - but only put £10 or £20 in when they do.

    Not everyone fills their tank. Indeed its less fuel efficient if you do so this is quite deliberate for a lot of people.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 45,116
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.

    Not around here
    Next time there is a story about RNLI or somesuch perhaps it would be helpful if everyone inland says not a problem here.
    It is not a problem for large parts of the country and not only was that evidenced on here yesterday but confirmed by the media

    This is a London and South East issue
    That doesn’t diminish the problem or put fuel in your tank. Since my father in law was admitted last week through A&E, managing fuel is a stress we could do without. But hey BigG sees this as not a problem because he’s alright Jack.
    You know that is not what I am saying

    There is an issue which is identified as mainly in London and the South East and the army drivers will no doubt help to alleviate it
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,248

    My modest proposal for solving the problem of queues at petrol stations: a £30 minimum spend so that only those who actually need to fill up will do so.

    The only problem is, what do you do when somebody fills up with £20? Still charge them £30? That would be - courageous.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,597

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.

    Not around here
    Next time there is a story about RNLI or somesuch perhaps it would be helpful if everyone inland says not a problem here.
    It is not a problem for large parts of the country and not only was that evidenced on here yesterday but confirmed by the media

    This is a London and South East issue
    That doesn’t diminish the problem or put fuel in your tank. Since my father in law was admitted last week through A&E, managing fuel is a stress we could do without. But hey BigG sees this as not a problem because he’s alright Jack.
    You know that is not what I am saying

    There is an issue which is identified as mainly in London and the South East and the army drivers will no doubt help to alleviate it
    I'm alright Jack is precisely how you are coming across, even if that is not your intent.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 45,116

    Jonathan said:

    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.

    Not around here
    I wonder if any disruption is regional based upon customer behaviour, or brand-related based on a company being incompetent?

    No hint of any issues anymore here. No queues, no disruption.
    Seems you cannot say that without being accused of being I am alright Jack
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 45,116

    Jonathan said:

    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.

    Not around here
    Next time there is a story about RNLI or somesuch perhaps it would be helpful if everyone inland says not a problem here.
    It is not a problem for large parts of the country and not only was that evidenced on here yesterday but confirmed by the media

    This is a London and South East issue
    Yes, at the moment we are still part of the UK too, not in France, so some empathy instead of pretending everything is fine would not hurt. Tens if not hundreds of thousands of people, ordinary people like taxi drivers, plumbers, etc are still unable to go work because of this.

    This is not over.
    I did not say it was over though
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,196
    ydoethur said:

    My modest proposal for solving the problem of queues at petrol stations: a £30 minimum spend so that only those who actually need to fill up will do so.

    The only problem is, what do you do when somebody fills up with £20? Still charge them £30? That would be - courageous.
    There is already a £5 minimum at most garages I think: just change it to £30.

    So yes, tell people that they will be charged at least £30. If they need less than that, why are they in the queue?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,248

    Jonathan said:

    Definitely more to this petrol shortage than panic. Service stations that had fuel are now empty again. A genuine supply chain problem.

    Not around here
    I wonder if any disruption is regional based upon customer behaviour, or brand-related based on a company being incompetent?

    No hint of any issues anymore here. No queues, no disruption.
    Seems you cannot say that without being accused of being I am alright Jack
    Or a Sellers out?

    Incidentally, still disruption round here with Rugeley affected although Cannock itself seems OK.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,595
    edited October 2
    Jonathan said:

    We have one independent chain of garages with its own trucks and depot in Shoreham. They are keeping going, but do not have the capacity to pick up the slack left by gaps elsewhere.

    We were told this would be over in a few days. It isn’t. It’s not just panic.

    Yup, a similar story in my part of London. The independent garage that I was relying on until last week empty later on in the day, yesterday. Got up early today and found fuel elsewhere, but quite a reasonable way away.
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