Stand by for a big announcement at 10pm – politicalbetting.com

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Stand by for a big announcement at 10pm – politicalbetting.com

? | NEW: At 2200 BST tonight the Prime Minister will make an on camera address, alongside US President Biden and Australian Prime Minister Morrison, on a strategic national security announcement – Downing Street

Read the full story here

JosiasJessop

First.

Thanks to my cunning intercept and decoding of encrypted messages, I can reveal the truth.

Johnson and Biden are entering a civil union, with Morrison presiding over the nuptials.

The truth, people!

You heard it here first!

CarlottaVance

I posted this this afternoon:

President Joe Biden will announce a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, a White House official and a congressional staffer told POLITICO.

The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/15/biden-deal-uk-australia-defense-tech-sharing-511877

Stark_Dawning

Sounds like a load of cobblers to me - a stunt to distract from, and make themselves look competent after, the Afghanistan debacle.

CarlottaVance

Stark_Dawning said:

Sounds like a load of cobblers to me - a stunt to distract from, and make themselves look competent after, the Afghanistan debacle.

Tell that to the French who are losing a $90bn submarine deal.....

IshmaelZ

Sandpit said:

Of relevance to tonight’s announcement, the story of the AU and US police working with ‘a third country’ to develop a ‘super secure encrypted chat phone’, which they sold into the underworld and used to pickup a bunch of serious villains back in June.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/11/inside-story-most-daring-surveillance-sting-in-history?source=techstories.org

That is beyond fascinating. Someone should buy the film rights asap and make a new French Connection.

Philip_Thompson

CarlottaVance said:

I posted this this afternoon:

President Joe Biden will announce a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, a White House official and a congressional staffer told POLITICO.

The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/15/biden-deal-uk-australia-defense-tech-sharing-511877

Is it normal for these sort of arrangements to be announced on TV?

DecrepiterJohnL

IshmaelZ said:

Sandpit said:

Of relevance to tonight’s announcement, the story of the AU and US police working with ‘a third country’ to develop a ‘super secure encrypted chat phone’, which they sold into the underworld and used to pickup a bunch of serious villains back in June.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/11/inside-story-most-daring-surveillance-sting-in-history?source=techstories.org

That is beyond fascinating. Someone should buy the film rights asap and make a new French Connection.

Is a third country an anagram of Israel? Home to crackers-for-hire and spyware vendors?

Big_G_NorthWales

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

I posted this this afternoon:

President Joe Biden will announce a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, a White House official and a congressional staffer told POLITICO.

The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/15/biden-deal-uk-australia-defense-tech-sharing-511877

Is it normal for these sort of arrangements to be announced on TV?

Where else would it be announced but through the media

IshmaelZ

DecrepiterJohnL said:

IshmaelZ said:

Sandpit said:

Of relevance to tonight’s announcement, the story of the AU and US police working with ‘a third country’ to develop a ‘super secure encrypted chat phone’, which they sold into the underworld and used to pickup a bunch of serious villains back in June.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/11/inside-story-most-daring-surveillance-sting-in-history?source=techstories.org

That is beyond fascinating. Someone should buy the film rights asap and make a new French Connection.

Is a third country an anagram of Israel? Home to crackers-for-hire and spyware vendors?

You might think so. I couldn't possibly comment.

JosiasJessop

CarlottaVance said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Sounds like a load of cobblers to me - a stunt to distract from, and make themselves look competent after, the Afghanistan debacle.

Tell that to the French who are losing a $90bn submarine deal.....

To be fair, it neve should have been a $90bn deal. IMV the French and ?Thales? got too greedy and have forced Australia's hands.

The following (long) video goes into it a little:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2vnciriE_Q

And shorter, but also of relevance:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXQ2lO3ieBA

ydoethur

Weird day to pick for a reshuffle with this coming?

Or is he hoping any dead bodies Williamson digs up will be safely buried in the news?

ping

No Canada & NZ

Interesting

rcs1000

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

jonny83 said:

Can Labour capitalise on this cut to UC? This is the sort of thing they should be scoring hits on a government over and yet I don't think they are being effective at all over it.

I do not support the loss of the temporary £20 UC uplift but the country is divided 38/39 on support/ oppose

Not an easy one, but was clearly part of the pandemic emergency funding, and they’ll need to find £6bn per year in taxes or borrowing to keep it running.

Ditto the furlough scheme, there’s several hundred thousand about to go from 80% of their salary to the dole. It still has to be done though.

In the last few days I have come to the conclusion that Boris is determined that wages have to rise hence why he is not permitting work visas

He seems to be developing a narrative that the conservative party are a high wage controlled immigration party, while labour will hold down wages through their support for unrestricted immigration

There is evidence wages are rising quite quickly and of course the electorate will see this in their pay packets, and it raises more tax and reduces the need for benefits

This is the brexit divided if it comes about

Not just that, but the pay rises are coming from the bottom.

For many years, the minimum wage was a maximum for many jobs - but now we are seeing genuine increases for the poorest workers, as firms compete to hire people, rather than people competing to be hired by firms.

Also good for the Treasury as:

(1) Higher wages mean more income tax and NI payments
(2) Higher wages potentially means lower tax credit payments

Partially offset by higher wages means lower corporate profits which means lower corporation tax. However, as firms like Amazon do not pay taxes anyway, not much impact there.

There is, though, a small issue.

The UK already imports a lot more than it exports. We want higher wages, but that has to be matched by increased productivity, otherwise we will end up squeezing our remaining export industries.

I am heartened by Gove at Housing: my hope is that one is able to offer "real" pay rises to people by making their cost of living lower.

But this is a tightrope. And it's not like British firms are particularly profitable - corporate profits in the UK are already a smaller percentage of GDP than most of our European peers.

Edit to add: the NI charge is an issue here, as it effectively is a real pay cut for workers, and is really not what we want to be doing here.

Most of the higher wages are in service industries, which are generally internal with a few exceptions such as transport.

Increased costs of providing baristas, bartenders and arse-wipers, shouldn’t translate too much into inflation of exported goods.

I don't think that's true.

If wages rise to £100,000 for HGV drivers, then it will result in people who might have take a job at a factory for £45,000/year choosing a different career path.

Big_G_NorthWales

ping said:

No Canada & NZ

Interesting

Nor France

Leon

I think they are going to go further than we suspect, with full-on union under the Crown, with the new capital in London.

The Senate will become a kind of county council, much like, say, Devon Council. America will benefit from British policing and sensible gun laws, we will all get Australian healthcare and sunshine.

Stark_Dawning

CarlottaVance said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Sounds like a load of cobblers to me - a stunt to distract from, and make themselves look competent after, the Afghanistan debacle.

Tell that to the French who are losing a $90bn submarine deal.....

The Aussies have been grumbling about the French deal for ages - completely unrelated. If anything this thing tonight is just to give Morrison political cover to ditch it.

Big_G_NorthWales

Stark_Dawning said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Sounds like a load of cobblers to me - a stunt to distract from, and make themselves look competent after, the Afghanistan debacle.

Tell that to the French who are losing a $90bn submarine deal.....

The Aussies have been grumbling about the French deal for ages - completely unrelated. If anything this thing tonight is just to give Morrison political cover to ditch it.

In favour of the US - UK

Casino_Royale

Hang on, this can't be true.

I keep being told our foreign policy is finished after Brexit and the advantage is wholly with the EU.

CarlottaVance

ping said:

No Canada & NZ

Interesting

No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.

Stark_Dawning

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Sounds like a load of cobblers to me - a stunt to distract from, and make themselves look competent after, the Afghanistan debacle.

Tell that to the French who are losing a $90bn submarine deal.....

The Aussies have been grumbling about the French deal for ages - completely unrelated. If anything this thing tonight is just to give Morrison political cover to ditch it.

In favour of the US - UK

How does the UK benefit?

Big_G_NorthWales

Casino_Royale said:

Hang on, this can't be true.

I keep being told our foreign policy is finished after Brexit and the advantage is wholly with the EU.

I wait to hear the detail but this could be a very dramatic development with lots of implications for NATO and others

And this from Joe Biden not Trump

Sandpit

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

jonny83 said:

Can Labour capitalise on this cut to UC? This is the sort of thing they should be scoring hits on a government over and yet I don't think they are being effective at all over it.

I do not support the loss of the temporary £20 UC uplift but the country is divided 38/39 on support/ oppose

Not an easy one, but was clearly part of the pandemic emergency funding, and they’ll need to find £6bn per year in taxes or borrowing to keep it running.

Ditto the furlough scheme, there’s several hundred thousand about to go from 80% of their salary to the dole. It still has to be done though.

In the last few days I have come to the conclusion that Boris is determined that wages have to rise hence why he is not permitting work visas

He seems to be developing a narrative that the conservative party are a high wage controlled immigration party, while labour will hold down wages through their support for unrestricted immigration

There is evidence wages are rising quite quickly and of course the electorate will see this in their pay packets, and it raises more tax and reduces the need for benefits

This is the brexit divided if it comes about

Not just that, but the pay rises are coming from the bottom.

For many years, the minimum wage was a maximum for many jobs - but now we are seeing genuine increases for the poorest workers, as firms compete to hire people, rather than people competing to be hired by firms.

Also good for the Treasury as:

(1) Higher wages mean more income tax and NI payments
(2) Higher wages potentially means lower tax credit payments

Partially offset by higher wages means lower corporate profits which means lower corporation tax. However, as firms like Amazon do not pay taxes anyway, not much impact there.

There is, though, a small issue.

The UK already imports a lot more than it exports. We want higher wages, but that has to be matched by increased productivity, otherwise we will end up squeezing our remaining export industries.

I am heartened by Gove at Housing: my hope is that one is able to offer "real" pay rises to people by making their cost of living lower.

But this is a tightrope. And it's not like British firms are particularly profitable - corporate profits in the UK are already a smaller percentage of GDP than most of our European peers.

Edit to add: the NI charge is an issue here, as it effectively is a real pay cut for workers, and is really not what we want to be doing here.

Most of the higher wages are in service industries, which are generally internal with a few exceptions such as transport.

Increased costs of providing baristas, bartenders and arse-wipers, shouldn’t translate too much into inflation of exported goods.

I don't think that's true.

If wages rise to £100,000 for HGV drivers, then it will result in people who might have take a job at a factory for £45,000/year choosing a different career path.

Yes, but only at the margins.

More relevant is the much larger number of people for whom the minimum wage is no longer a maximum, now that employers are competing to hire them. The pay rises are starting at the bottom and working up organically, something that hasn’t happened in living memory.

FrancisUrquhart

China's major banks have been notified by the housing authority that Evergrande Group won't be able to pay loan interest due Sept. 20, a media report says, underlining the broadening impact of the property developer's liquidity crisis https://t.co/dRBmiMFnmc https://t.co/NjvYOQ0Kt7

CarlottaVance

ydoethur said:

Weird day to pick for a reshuffle with this coming?

Or is he hoping any dead bodies Williamson digs up will be safely buried in the news?

He has to get it out of the way as next week he's off to the UN in NY (and what are the chances he pops into Washington too?), then Parliament goes into recess.

Chameleon

Seems like a really weird thing to make so much noise over. Surely there must be more?

In Aus not only have they briefed the entire cabinet, they've briefed 3 Labor party members.

Casino_Royale

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hang on, this can't be true.

I keep being told our foreign policy is finished after Brexit and the advantage is wholly with the EU.

I wait to hear the detail but this could be a very dramatic development with lots of implications for NATO and others

And this from Joe Biden not Trump

I suspect it probably isn't - just some extra defence cooperation and a political statement - but I'm sure it will be interesting nonetheless.

moonshine

We sure it ain’t aliens?

Leon

CarlottaVance said:

ping said:

No Canada & NZ

Interesting

No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.

But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?

Sandpit

The UK, USA and Australia combining forces, provides pretty much 24h coverage in monitoring the biggest adversary of the next few decades.

Big_G_NorthWales

Stark_Dawning said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Sounds like a load of cobblers to me - a stunt to distract from, and make themselves look competent after, the Afghanistan debacle.

Tell that to the French who are losing a $90bn submarine deal.....

The Aussies have been grumbling about the French deal for ages - completely unrelated. If anything this thing tonight is just to give Morrison political cover to ditch it.

In favour of the US - UK

How does the UK benefit?

Having a strategic military agreement with the US and Australia is good news for UK security and Japan and India to be involved

Philip_Thompson

moonshine said:

We sure it ain’t aliens?

No its not. Trudeau hasn't been included.

CarlottaVance

JCVI dosing strategy:

Other things to note:
• Israel may have had a bigger waning problem than e.g the UK because of its shorter dosing interval. PHE paper would support that theory
• Similarly, short dosing interval may be a factor in how bad US’s Delta wave has been (tho low US vax rates also key)

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1438100756389847042?s=20

Mexicanpete

ydoethur said:

Weird day to pick for a reshuffle with this coming?

Or is he hoping any dead bodies Williamson digs up will be safely buried in the news?

A good day to bury an horrendous inflation figure.

Chameleon

CarlottaVance said:

ydoethur said:

Weird day to pick for a reshuffle with this coming?

Or is he hoping any dead bodies Williamson digs up will be safely buried in the news?

He has to get it out of the way as next week he's off to the UN in NY (and what are the chances he pops into Washington too?), then Parliament goes into recess.

Which makes it even more curious. Morrison from down under is also heading to NY next week. Surely it'd make sense to make the announcement in person?

SandyRentool

Are we invading Afghanistan again?

Stark_Dawning

Chameleon said:

Seems like a really weird thing to make so much noise over.

They've still got the screams of Afghanistan ringing in their ears. Biden and Boris want to press the reset button.

Philip_Thompson

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Weird day to pick for a reshuffle with this coming?

Or is he hoping any dead bodies Williamson digs up will be safely buried in the news?

A good day to bury an horrendous inflation figure.

0.2% above target range is horrendous? 🤔

Sandpit

Leon said:

CarlottaVance said:

ping said:

No Canada & NZ

Interesting

No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.

But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?

You’d think they would be clambering to be a part of it, but maybe the timing falls under their rules of purdah around the election?

NZ looks isolated though, they have a choice to make between the West and China.

MaxPB

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ping said:

No Canada & NZ

Interesting

Nor France

I doubt any EU country would be trusted. Including 1 means having to include all 27 so even if we wanted France in the club it means having Germany in there who will no doubt leak said technology to China.

CarlottaVance

Leon said:

CarlottaVance said:

ping said:

No Canada & NZ

Interesting

No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.

But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?

I'm sure Canada's not being "cut out" - but on Submarine tech they've little to offer

rottenborough

Home and Away to end?

MrEd

Leon said:

CarlottaVance said:

ping said:

No Canada & NZ

Interesting

No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.

But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?

Could be a few things. The election is one and it might be that either Trudeau is concerned about joining forces with these three and pissing off his left base, in which case he comes in post-election.

A second, more worrying thought is that the other three think that Canada has been too infiltrated by Chinese interests and so would prove unreliable.

Re Arden, I can imagine this has the potential to be a headache for her if the end result is NZ is cut out of a major strategic alliance that its big sister partner is part of and people believe it is down to her actions and behaviour.

Flatlander

FPT, and whilst we are on Underground Trivia.

Where are the two oldest deep level stations (ie in a tunnel rather than cut/cover)? No Googling now...

turbotubbs

moonshine said:

We sure it ain’t aliens?

100% certain it’s not aliens.

CarlottaVance

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Sounds like a load of cobblers to me - a stunt to distract from, and make themselves look competent after, the Afghanistan debacle.

Tell that to the French who are losing a $90bn submarine deal.....

The Aussies have been grumbling about the French deal for ages - completely unrelated. If anything this thing tonight is just to give Morrison political cover to ditch it.

In favour of the US - UK

How does the UK benefit?

Having a strategic military agreement with the US and Australia is good news for UK security and Japan and India to be involved

There is a "Quad" (US, Oz, India, Japan) meeting in person in Washington next week....wonder if Johnson might drop in.....

MrEd

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hang on, this can't be true.

I keep being told our foreign policy is finished after Brexit and the advantage is wholly with the EU.

I wait to hear the detail but this could be a very dramatic development with lots of implications for NATO and others

And this from Joe Biden not Trump

I suspect it probably isn't - just some extra defence cooperation and a political statement - but I'm sure it will be interesting nonetheless.

Possibly but I don't see why that would not be a Defence Secretary announcement instead of Heads of Government. Which suggests something major.

Leon

The combined nominal GDP of CAUKUS (if Canada joins, and they surely will?) is a pretty impressive $27bn (most of it the USA of course)

China's is $14.5 (but much higher on PPP)

It would take China quite some time to overtake that, and they would never have the geographic, worldwide span

This is all to peg China down

SandyRentool

Stark_Dawning said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Sounds like a load of cobblers to me - a stunt to distract from, and make themselves look competent after, the Afghanistan debacle.

Tell that to the French who are losing a $90bn submarine deal.....

The Aussies have been grumbling about the French deal for ages - completely unrelated. If anything this thing tonight is just to give Morrison political cover to ditch it.

In favour of the US - UK

How does the UK benefit?

Will Rolls Royce supply the reactors?

Sandpit

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Weird day to pick for a reshuffle with this coming?

Or is he hoping any dead bodies Williamson digs up will be safely buried in the news?

A good day to bury an horrendous inflation figure.

0.2% above target range is horrendous? 🤔

Maybe horrendous for the Governor, who will have to write a letter to the Chancellor - but for most of the rest of us, not so much.

moonshine

What about “China lab was source of covid, we now form an alliance to counter them”.

NickPalmer

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

I posted this this afternoon:

President Joe Biden will announce a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, a White House official and a congressional staffer told POLITICO.

The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/15/biden-deal-uk-australia-defense-tech-sharing-511877

Is it normal for these sort of arrangements to be announced on TV?

That's what I was wondering. None of them have an election coming so the obvious cynical explanation doesn't wash. Intended as a public warning to China, perhaps, but seems too oblique for that.

rottenborough

China.

kle4

MrEd said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hang on, this can't be true.

I keep being told our foreign policy is finished after Brexit and the advantage is wholly with the EU.

I wait to hear the detail but this could be a very dramatic development with lots of implications for NATO and others

And this from Joe Biden not Trump

I suspect it probably isn't - just some extra defence cooperation and a political statement - but I'm sure it will be interesting nonetheless.

Possibly but I don't see why that would not be a Defence Secretary announcement instead of Heads of Government. Which suggests something major.

I think it may just suggest leaders don't like to share the limelight.

moonshine

turbotubbs said:

moonshine said:

We sure it ain’t aliens?

100% certain it’s not aliens.

Yes Japan would be part of it if it was, since the bilateral pact on UAP info sharing was announced

Big_G_NorthWales

Liverpool on fire

But missed a penalty just now

CarlottaVance

The appointment of @SimonClarkeMP, one of the most prominent red wall Tories, as chief secretary is a signal Boris Johnson wants to smash the Treasury orthodoxy. Along with Gove, shows this reshuffle is about levelling up.

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1438218062986100736?s=20

MrEd

NickPalmer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

I posted this this afternoon:

President Joe Biden will announce a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, a White House official and a congressional staffer told POLITICO.

The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/15/biden-deal-uk-australia-defense-tech-sharing-511877

Is it normal for these sort of arrangements to be announced on TV?

That's what I was wondering. None of them have an election coming so the obvious cynical explanation doesn't wash. Intended as a public warning to China, perhaps, but seems too oblique for that.

Merger of military capabilities?

Casino_Royale

MaxPB said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ping said:

No Canada & NZ

Interesting

Nor France

I doubt any EU country would be trusted. Including 1 means having to include all 27 so even if we wanted France in the club it means having Germany in there who will no doubt leak said technology to China.

But...but... BREXIT!!!

Chameleon

NickPalmer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

I posted this this afternoon:

President Joe Biden will announce a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, a White House official and a congressional staffer told POLITICO.

The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/15/biden-deal-uk-australia-defense-tech-sharing-511877

Is it normal for these sort of arrangements to be announced on TV?

That's what I was wondering. None of them have an election coming so the obvious cynical explanation doesn't wash. Intended as a public warning to China, perhaps, but seems too oblique for that.

Given that they'll all be together in person next week, surely it'd make sense to announce it then, and I can't see any obvious reason why a slightly increased defence alliance being formed requires a rush announcement. If it was largely the subs, there's little reason for us to be involved.

Mexicanpete

SandyRentool said:

Are we invading Afghanistan again?

France, from what I've picked up on here tonight.

Stark_Dawning

Leon said:

The combined nominal GDP of CAUKUS (if Canada joins, and they surely will?) is a pretty impressive $27bn (most of it the USA of course)

China's is $14.5 (but much higher on PPP)

It would take China quite some time to overtake that, and they would never have the geographic, worldwide span

This is all to peg China down

They're going to announce the political and economic union of US, UK, Canada and Australia? That will certainly put Dominic Raab's demotion in the shade!

williamglenn

MaxPB said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ping said:

No Canada & NZ

Interesting

Nor France

I doubt any EU country would be trusted. Including 1 means having to include all 27 so even if we wanted France in the club it means having Germany in there who will no doubt leak said technology to China.

France vetoed plans for European defence integration way back in the 1950s. In practice I don't think they would go through with anything that ceded real control to the EU.

IshmaelZ

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Liverpool on fire

Is that post interesting, or is it about football?

Casino_Royale

Leon said:

The combined nominal GDP of CAUKUS (if Canada joins, and they surely will?) is a pretty impressive $27bn (most of it the USA of course)

China's is $14.5 (but much higher on PPP)

It would take China quite some time to overtake that, and they would never have the geographic, worldwide span

This is all to peg China down

UK + AUS ain't far off 100 million extra peeps so worth the US's time given the strategic location and reach.

rottenborough

MrEd said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hang on, this can't be true.

I keep being told our foreign policy is finished after Brexit and the advantage is wholly with the EU.

I wait to hear the detail but this could be a very dramatic development with lots of implications for NATO and others

And this from Joe Biden not Trump

I suspect it probably isn't - just some extra defence cooperation and a political statement - but I'm sure it will be interesting nonetheless.

Possibly but I don't see why that would not be a Defence Secretary announcement instead of Heads of Government. Which suggests something major.

Johnson's bridge to Ireland is going to be extended to Australia via San Fransisco?

Big_G_NorthWales

IshmaelZ said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Liverpool on fire

Is that post interesting, or is it about football?

Very good but yes football

kle4

Leon said:

CarlottaVance said:

ping said:

No Canada & NZ

Interesting

No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.

But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?

If the reason was it was election related why not just wait a week?

MrEd

kle4 said:

MrEd said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hang on, this can't be true.

I keep being told our foreign policy is finished after Brexit and the advantage is wholly with the EU.

I wait to hear the detail but this could be a very dramatic development with lots of implications for NATO and others

And this from Joe Biden not Trump

I suspect it probably isn't - just some extra defence cooperation and a political statement - but I'm sure it will be interesting nonetheless.

Possibly but I don't see why that would not be a Defence Secretary announcement instead of Heads of Government. Which suggests something major.

I think it may just suggest leaders don't like to share the limelight.

Possibly but I think the timing is also key - 10pm London (TV news programmes), 5pm ET (Prime time US) and 7am Sydney (start of the day)

(although admittedly fitting in all three places is bloody difficult)

Sandpit

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

I posted this this afternoon:

President Joe Biden will announce a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, a White House official and a congressional staffer told POLITICO.

The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/15/biden-deal-uk-australia-defense-tech-sharing-511877

Is it normal for these sort of arrangements to be announced on TV?

Presumably they’ve chosen a time that works for the three countries. (10pm UK, 5pm Washington, I think 8am Canebrra), and it had to be announced simultaneously. Briefing to Parliament coming first thing tomorrow?

FrancisUrquhart

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

I posted this this afternoon:

President Joe Biden will announce a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, a White House official and a congressional staffer told POLITICO.

The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/15/biden-deal-uk-australia-defense-tech-sharing-511877

Is it normal for these sort of arrangements to be announced on TV?

Presumably they’ve chosen a time that works for the three countries. (10pm UK, 5pm Washington, I think 8am Canebrra), and it had to be announced simultaneously. Briefing to Parliament coming first thing tomorrow?

Our colonies should operate on GMT....that would make things all much easier.

moonshine

Were this some sort of reaffirmation of the Anglo alliance, would we not have heard about it for months? Why the sudden announcement?

Big_G_NorthWales

moonshine said:

Were this some sort of reaffirmation of the Anglo alliance, would we not have heard about it for months? Why the sudden announcement?

Maybe Australia deciding to ditch the deal with France officially

kle4

Speaking about Canadian elections what the heck happened in 2015 to see the Liberals gain 148 seats?

Flatlander

Big_G_NorthWales said:

moonshine said:

Were this some sort of reaffirmation of the Anglo alliance, would we not have heard about it for months? Why the sudden announcement?

Maybe Australia deciding to ditch the deal with France officially

Why would they make a song and dance about that though?

This is either a planned distraction from Afghanistan, or something has happened very recently that needed a response (without waiting for Canada to have their election).

Definitely aliens.

rottenborough

There's a long and interesting piece in last week's The New Statesman from Adam Tooze looking at US military and China and so on. Technology is key. Attacking counter insurgents in fly blown sandpits is old news. Now it is space, cyber, AI, robots and so on.

This could be something to do with 10pm announcement.

MrEd

Even if you do not like Trump, the second to last paragraph is spot on:

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/elected-mark-milley-china-military/

MrEd

rottenborough said:

MrEd said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hang on, this can't be true.

I keep being told our foreign policy is finished after Brexit and the advantage is wholly with the EU.

I wait to hear the detail but this could be a very dramatic development with lots of implications for NATO and others

And this from Joe Biden not Trump

I suspect it probably isn't - just some extra defence cooperation and a political statement - but I'm sure it will be interesting nonetheless.

Possibly but I don't see why that would not be a Defence Secretary announcement instead of Heads of Government. Which suggests something major.

Johnson's bridge to Ireland is going to be extended to Australia via San Fransisco?

Dilyn to become Joint Head of all three countries with Carrie as Regent

Philip_Thompson

moonshine said:

Were this some sort of reaffirmation of the Anglo alliance, would we not have heard about it for months? Why the sudden announcement?

I can't think of anything like this before. A triple heads of government presentation at short notice.

MrEd

rottenborough said:

There's a long and interesting piece in last week's The New Statesman from Adam Tooze looking at US military and China and so on. Technology is key. Attacking counter insurgents in fly blown sandpits is old news. Now it is space, cyber, AI, robots and so on.

This could be something to do with 10pm announcement.

Read that. Adam Tooze is very good.

Stark_Dawning

moonshine said:

Were this some sort of reaffirmation of the Anglo alliance, would we not have heard about it for months? Why the sudden announcement?

I think this is just about Aus scrapping its submarine deal with France and going with the US - the pseudo historic profundity makes it easier for Scott Morrison to sell it back home. Boris is present to lend some authenticity and make himself look globally relevant.

rottenborough

MrEd said:

rottenborough said:

MrEd said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hang on, this can't be true.

I keep being told our foreign policy is finished after Brexit and the advantage is wholly with the EU.

I wait to hear the detail but this could be a very dramatic development with lots of implications for NATO and others

And this from Joe Biden not Trump

I suspect it probably isn't - just some extra defence cooperation and a political statement - but I'm sure it will be interesting nonetheless.

Possibly but I don't see why that would not be a Defence Secretary announcement instead of Heads of Government. Which suggests something major.

Johnson's bridge to Ireland is going to be extended to Australia via San Fransisco?

Dilyn to become Joint Head of all three countries with Carrie as Regent

I could see the UK electing a dog as leader frankly. But only if he is a rescue dog and there is a tale to tell of being saved from god knows what.

Big_G_NorthWales

Philip_Thompson said:

moonshine said:

Were this some sort of reaffirmation of the Anglo alliance, would we not have heard about it for months? Why the sudden announcement?

I can't think of anything like this before. A triple heads of government presentation at short notice.

Nor can I

It must be quite some agreement

rcs1000

Leon said:

CarlottaVance said:

ping said:

No Canada & NZ

Interesting

No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.

But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?

Although you'd think Trudeau would absolutely love to be up on the world stage in the middle of the election. Great publicity, and really sucks for the Conservatives that he's the one shaking hands with Biden and Johnson.

RobD

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

CarlottaVance said:

ping said:

No Canada & NZ

Interesting

No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.

But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?

Although you'd think Trudeau would absolutely love to be up on the world stage in the middle of the election. Great publicity, and really sucks for the Conservatives that he's the one shaking hands with Biden and Johnson.

Could it be purdah, or something similar?

Philip_Thompson

MrEd said:

Even if you do not like Trump, the second to last paragraph is spot on:

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/elected-mark-milley-china-military/

No, completely disagreed. If the President has gone off the deep-end then there absolutely should be some sanity check in the system. Eg if Trump launches an unprovoked nuclear attack there is no reason that Milley shouldn't double-check with the Veep and Cabinet if they're OK with that or wish to over-ride that by invoking the 25th.

FrancisUrquhart

You presume it must be something that requires immediate action. Canada election isn't far away and Boris mum just died (and he has been flat out so far this week with covid and reshuffle).

Just a bit of nicety stuff would have thought could wait a couple of weeks.

rcs1000

Leon said:

CarlottaVance said:

ping said:

No Canada & NZ

Interesting

No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.

But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?

On your substantive point, it's not going to be just about the submarines (although I'm sure submarines will be part of it), I think it's going beyond NATO to a smaller, but more integrated defence cooperation agreement between the three largest countries in the Anglosphere, and which is World (rather than Atlantic or Pacific) in scope.

Canada's non-inclusion probably reflects the fact that its defence spending as a percentage of GDP is now *well* below Germany's. They're a freeloader.

Sandpit

MrEd said:

Even if you do not like Trump, the second to last paragraph is spot on:

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/elected-mark-milley-china-military/

Yes, but the US military have history for this sort of thing, saying that they can’t trust the President. The fact remains that they’ll be told to either execute the order or resign.

Leon

MrEd said:

rottenborough said:

MrEd said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hang on, this can't be true.

I keep being told our foreign policy is finished after Brexit and the advantage is wholly with the EU.

I wait to hear the detail but this could be a very dramatic development with lots of implications for NATO and others

And this from Joe Biden not Trump

I suspect it probably isn't - just some extra defence cooperation and a political statement - but I'm sure it will be interesting nonetheless.

Possibly but I don't see why that would not be a Defence Secretary announcement instead of Heads of Government. Which suggests something major.

Johnson's bridge to Ireland is going to be extended to Australia via San Fransisco?

Dilyn to become Joint Head of all three countries with Carrie as Regent

I still reckon they're re-uniting under the Crown but maybe they're skipping Charles and going straight to the new Queen Emma Raducanu, which is why it needs a pretty big build-up

Fine by me. A really Hot Teen Queen (to be known as HTQ from now on)

Philip_Thompson

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

CarlottaVance said:

ping said:

No Canada & NZ

Interesting

No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.

But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?

Although you'd think Trudeau would absolutely love to be up on the world stage in the middle of the election. Great publicity, and really sucks for the Conservatives that he's the one shaking hands with Biden and Johnson.

Could it be purdah, or something similar?

If its purdah and Canada are meant to be included then why announce it now? Then re-announce it in a few weeks with the Canadians?

Surely you'd either announce it post-election or pre-election when purdah doesn't apply. Otherwise its very odd.

ydoethur

MrEd said:

Even if you do not like Trump, the second to last paragraph is spot on:

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/elected-mark-milley-china-military/

No, sorry, that article is BS. Trump by inciting the overthrow of Congress and attempting to subvert the election was no longer the ‘legally elected president’ as he had broken his oath to defend the constitution. Which, I would point out, is what the general in question swore an oath to uphold. There is ample precedent for putting safeguards in place to prevent a president who has completely lost what passes for his mind launching Armageddon. It has been done at least once, probably twice before.

True, the 25th should have been invoked, and it says a lot about the nature of Trump’s cabinet and not in a good way that they connived at open treason.

There was only one coup attempt over the 2020 election. Fortunately, it failed. The fact Trump’s fanboys don’t *like* that doesn’t alter that simple fact.

DavidL

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Weird day to pick for a reshuffle with this coming?

Or is he hoping any dead bodies Williamson digs up will be safely buried in the news?

A good day to bury an horrendous inflation figure.

0.2% above target range is horrendous? 🤔

Maybe horrendous for the Governor, who will have to write a letter to the Chancellor - but for most of the rest of us, not so much.

I am sure that the governor can explain that the dropping out of the EOTHO scheme from last August when the Chancellor was subsidising meals out to create demand has distorted the inflation figure sufficiently to put it outwith target but this is an artificial blip, not a subject of serious concern.

Leon

Impressive singing at Anfield. Walk On, done very well

https://twitter.com/ChantLFC/status/1438223178619408387?s=20

Sandpit

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Weird day to pick for a reshuffle with this coming?

Or is he hoping any dead bodies Williamson digs up will be safely buried in the news?

A good day to bury an horrendous inflation figure.

0.2% above target range is horrendous? 🤔

Maybe horrendous for the Governor, who will have to write a letter to the Chancellor - but for most of the rest of us, not so much.

I am sure that the governor can explain that the dropping out of the EOTHO scheme from last August when the Chancellor was subsidising meals out to create demand has distorted the inflation figure sufficiently to put it outwith target but this is an artificial blip, not a subject of serious concern.

Which is pretty much what the ONS said this morning. The government-backed promotions of a year ago unwinding, alongside temporary input price rises.

GIN1138

Nevermind about some poxy US, UK and Aus announcement, the real news of the day is that Nadine is in the Cabinet!!!!

What would Tim say?

Leon

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

CarlottaVance said:

ping said:

No Canada & NZ

Interesting

No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.

But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?

On your substantive point, it's not going to be just about the submarines (although I'm sure submarines will be part of it), I think it's going beyond NATO to a smaller, but more integrated defence cooperation agreement between the three largest countries in the Anglosphere, and which is World (rather than Atlantic or Pacific) in scope.

Canada's non-inclusion probably reflects the fact that its defence spending as a percentage of GDP is now *well* below Germany's. They're a freeloader.

Canada is bigger than Oz in population, GDP and geographical size, so you're not correct on "3 biggest"

An Anglospherical defence union to match the intelligence union makes total sense, versus China, but Canada should be in it, and will be, I hope

As someone else has said this is a real bind for Arden. Kiwis won't like being left out, to be China's toy

bigjohnowls

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Weird day to pick for a reshuffle with this coming?

Or is he hoping any dead bodies Williamson digs up will be safely buried in the news?

A good day to bury an horrendous inflation figure.

0.2% above target range is horrendous? 🤔

Maybe horrendous for the Governor, who will have to write a letter to the Chancellor - but for most of the rest of us, not so much.

I am sure that the governor can explain that the dropping out of the EOTHO scheme from last August when the Chancellor was subsidising meals out to create demand has distorted the inflation figure sufficiently to put it outwith target but this is an artificial blip, not a subject of serious concern.

Although some are predicting 4.0% by Christmas


Something to do with supply and demand.

Next month is most important for Treasury as it is used for next years benefits

Sandpit

Philip_Thompson said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

CarlottaVance said:

ping said:

No Canada & NZ

Interesting

No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.

But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?

Although you'd think Trudeau would absolutely love to be up on the world stage in the middle of the election. Great publicity, and really sucks for the Conservatives that he's the one shaking hands with Biden and Johnson.

Could it be purdah, or something similar?

If its purdah and Canada are meant to be included then why announce it now? Then re-announce it in a few weeks with the Canadians?

Surely you'd either announce it post-election or pre-election when purdah doesn't apply. Otherwise its very odd.

I wonder if the timing is driven here by the Aussie contract with the French.

Or maybe there’s more to be announced, a summit of sorts that’s been going on in the background for months, hidden from view by the fact that these things can all be done online now with very few people involved?

Toms

Completely off topic, here's a typical Caltech theoretical physicist:

https://magazine.caltech.edu/post/socaltech-monica-jinwoo-kang

rpjs

Stark_Dawning said:

moonshine said:

Were this some sort of reaffirmation of the Anglo alliance, would we not have heard about it for months? Why the sudden announcement?

I think this is just about Aus scrapping its submarine deal with France and going with the US - the pseudo historic profundity makes it easier for Scott Morrison to sell it back home. Boris is present to lend some authenticity and make himself look globally relevant.

And Biden’s on board so he can announce some nice fat pork for the US defence industry to help move away from the Afghanistan business.