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Stand by for a big announcement at 10pm – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 15 in General
Stand by for a big announcement at 10pm – politicalbetting.com

? | NEW: At 2200 BST tonight the Prime Minister will make an on camera address, alongside US President Biden and Australian Prime Minister Morrison, on a strategic national security announcement – Downing Street

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 25,879
    edited September 15
    First.

    Thanks to my cunning intercept and decoding of encrypted messages, I can reveal the truth.

    Johnson and Biden are entering a civil union, with Morrison presiding over the nuptials.

    The truth, people!

    You heard it here first!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,612
    edited September 15
    I posted this this afternoon:

    President Joe Biden will announce a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, a White House official and a congressional staffer told POLITICO.

    The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities.


    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/15/biden-deal-uk-australia-defense-tech-sharing-511877
  • Sounds like a load of cobblers to me - a stunt to distract from, and make themselves look competent after, the Afghanistan debacle.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,612

    Sounds like a load of cobblers to me - a stunt to distract from, and make themselves look competent after, the Afghanistan debacle.

    Tell that to the French who are losing a $90bn submarine deal.....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 8,817
    Sandpit said:

    Of relevance to tonight’s announcement, the story of the AU and US police working with ‘a third country’ to develop a ‘super secure encrypted chat phone’, which they sold into the underworld and used to pickup a bunch of serious villains back in June.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/11/inside-story-most-daring-surveillance-sting-in-history?source=techstories.org

    That is beyond fascinating. Someone should buy the film rights asap and make a new French Connection.
  • I posted this this afternoon:

    President Joe Biden will announce a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, a White House official and a congressional staffer told POLITICO.

    The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities.


    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/15/biden-deal-uk-australia-defense-tech-sharing-511877

    Is it normal for these sort of arrangements to be announced on TV?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    Of relevance to tonight’s announcement, the story of the AU and US police working with ‘a third country’ to develop a ‘super secure encrypted chat phone’, which they sold into the underworld and used to pickup a bunch of serious villains back in June.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/11/inside-story-most-daring-surveillance-sting-in-history?source=techstories.org

    That is beyond fascinating. Someone should buy the film rights asap and make a new French Connection.
    Is a third country an anagram of Israel? Home to crackers-for-hire and spyware vendors?
  • I posted this this afternoon:

    President Joe Biden will announce a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, a White House official and a congressional staffer told POLITICO.

    The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities.


    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/15/biden-deal-uk-australia-defense-tech-sharing-511877

    Is it normal for these sort of arrangements to be announced on TV?
    Where else would it be announced but through the media
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 8,817

    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    Of relevance to tonight’s announcement, the story of the AU and US police working with ‘a third country’ to develop a ‘super secure encrypted chat phone’, which they sold into the underworld and used to pickup a bunch of serious villains back in June.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/11/inside-story-most-daring-surveillance-sting-in-history?source=techstories.org

    That is beyond fascinating. Someone should buy the film rights asap and make a new French Connection.
    Is a third country an anagram of Israel? Home to crackers-for-hire and spyware vendors?
    You might think so. I couldn't possibly comment.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 25,879

    Sounds like a load of cobblers to me - a stunt to distract from, and make themselves look competent after, the Afghanistan debacle.

    Tell that to the French who are losing a $90bn submarine deal.....
    To be fair, it neve should have been a $90bn deal. IMV the French and ?Thales? got too greedy and have forced Australia's hands.

    The following (long) video goes into it a little:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2vnciriE_Q

    And shorter, but also of relevance:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXQ2lO3ieBA
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,393
    Weird day to pick for a reshuffle with this coming?

    Or is he hoping any dead bodies Williamson digs up will be safely buried in the news?
  • pingping Posts: 1,328
    No Canada & NZ

    Interesting
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,966
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    jonny83 said:

    Can Labour capitalise on this cut to UC? This is the sort of thing they should be scoring hits on a government over and yet I don't think they are being effective at all over it.

    I do not support the loss of the temporary £20 UC uplift but the country is divided 38/39 on support/ oppose

    Not an easy one, but was clearly part of the pandemic emergency funding, and they’ll need to find £6bn per year in taxes or borrowing to keep it running.

    Ditto the furlough scheme, there’s several hundred thousand about to go from 80% of their salary to the dole. It still has to be done though.
    In the last few days I have come to the conclusion that Boris is determined that wages have to rise hence why he is not permitting work visas

    He seems to be developing a narrative that the conservative party are a high wage controlled immigration party, while labour will hold down wages through their support for unrestricted immigration

    There is evidence wages are rising quite quickly and of course the electorate will see this in their pay packets, and it raises more tax and reduces the need for benefits

    This is the brexit divided if it comes about
    Not just that, but the pay rises are coming from the bottom.

    For many years, the minimum wage was a maximum for many jobs - but now we are seeing genuine increases for the poorest workers, as firms compete to hire people, rather than people competing to be hired by firms.
    Also good for the Treasury as:

    (1) Higher wages mean more income tax and NI payments
    (2) Higher wages potentially means lower tax credit payments

    Partially offset by higher wages means lower corporate profits which means lower corporation tax. However, as firms like Amazon do not pay taxes anyway, not much impact there.

    There is, though, a small issue.

    The UK already imports a lot more than it exports. We want higher wages, but that has to be matched by increased productivity, otherwise we will end up squeezing our remaining export industries.

    I am heartened by Gove at Housing: my hope is that one is able to offer "real" pay rises to people by making their cost of living lower.

    But this is a tightrope. And it's not like British firms are particularly profitable - corporate profits in the UK are already a smaller percentage of GDP than most of our European peers.

    Edit to add: the NI charge is an issue here, as it effectively is a real pay cut for workers, and is really not what we want to be doing here.
    Most of the higher wages are in service industries, which are generally internal with a few exceptions such as transport.

    Increased costs of providing baristas, bartenders and arse-wipers, shouldn’t translate too much into inflation of exported goods.
    I don't think that's true.

    If wages rise to £100,000 for HGV drivers, then it will result in people who might have take a job at a factory for £45,000/year choosing a different career path.
  • ping said:

    No Canada & NZ

    Interesting

    Nor France
  • Sounds like a load of cobblers to me - a stunt to distract from, and make themselves look competent after, the Afghanistan debacle.

    Tell that to the French who are losing a $90bn submarine deal.....
    The Aussies have been grumbling about the French deal for ages - completely unrelated. If anything this thing tonight is just to give Morrison political cover to ditch it.
  • Sounds like a load of cobblers to me - a stunt to distract from, and make themselves look competent after, the Afghanistan debacle.

    Tell that to the French who are losing a $90bn submarine deal.....
    The Aussies have been grumbling about the French deal for ages - completely unrelated. If anything this thing tonight is just to give Morrison political cover to ditch it.
    In favour of the US - UK
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,612
    edited September 15
    ping said:

    No Canada & NZ

    Interesting

    No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.
  • Sounds like a load of cobblers to me - a stunt to distract from, and make themselves look competent after, the Afghanistan debacle.

    Tell that to the French who are losing a $90bn submarine deal.....
    The Aussies have been grumbling about the French deal for ages - completely unrelated. If anything this thing tonight is just to give Morrison political cover to ditch it.
    In favour of the US - UK
    How does the UK benefit?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 45,410
    edited September 15

    Hang on, this can't be true.

    I keep being told our foreign policy is finished after Brexit and the advantage is wholly with the EU.

    I wait to hear the detail but this could be a very dramatic development with lots of implications for NATO and others

    And this from Joe Biden not Trump
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,364
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    jonny83 said:

    Can Labour capitalise on this cut to UC? This is the sort of thing they should be scoring hits on a government over and yet I don't think they are being effective at all over it.

    I do not support the loss of the temporary £20 UC uplift but the country is divided 38/39 on support/ oppose

    Not an easy one, but was clearly part of the pandemic emergency funding, and they’ll need to find £6bn per year in taxes or borrowing to keep it running.

    Ditto the furlough scheme, there’s several hundred thousand about to go from 80% of their salary to the dole. It still has to be done though.
    In the last few days I have come to the conclusion that Boris is determined that wages have to rise hence why he is not permitting work visas

    He seems to be developing a narrative that the conservative party are a high wage controlled immigration party, while labour will hold down wages through their support for unrestricted immigration

    There is evidence wages are rising quite quickly and of course the electorate will see this in their pay packets, and it raises more tax and reduces the need for benefits

    This is the brexit divided if it comes about
    Not just that, but the pay rises are coming from the bottom.

    For many years, the minimum wage was a maximum for many jobs - but now we are seeing genuine increases for the poorest workers, as firms compete to hire people, rather than people competing to be hired by firms.
    Also good for the Treasury as:

    (1) Higher wages mean more income tax and NI payments
    (2) Higher wages potentially means lower tax credit payments

    Partially offset by higher wages means lower corporate profits which means lower corporation tax. However, as firms like Amazon do not pay taxes anyway, not much impact there.

    There is, though, a small issue.

    The UK already imports a lot more than it exports. We want higher wages, but that has to be matched by increased productivity, otherwise we will end up squeezing our remaining export industries.

    I am heartened by Gove at Housing: my hope is that one is able to offer "real" pay rises to people by making their cost of living lower.

    But this is a tightrope. And it's not like British firms are particularly profitable - corporate profits in the UK are already a smaller percentage of GDP than most of our European peers.

    Edit to add: the NI charge is an issue here, as it effectively is a real pay cut for workers, and is really not what we want to be doing here.
    Most of the higher wages are in service industries, which are generally internal with a few exceptions such as transport.

    Increased costs of providing baristas, bartenders and arse-wipers, shouldn’t translate too much into inflation of exported goods.
    I don't think that's true.

    If wages rise to £100,000 for HGV drivers, then it will result in people who might have take a job at a factory for £45,000/year choosing a different career path.
    Yes, but only at the margins.

    More relevant is the much larger number of people for whom the minimum wage is no longer a maximum, now that employers are competing to hire them. The pay rises are starting at the bottom and working up organically, something that hasn’t happened in living memory.
  • China's major banks have been notified by the housing authority that Evergrande Group won't be able to pay loan interest due Sept. 20, a media report says, underlining the broadening impact of the property developer's liquidity crisis https://t.co/dRBmiMFnmc https://t.co/NjvYOQ0Kt7
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,612
    ydoethur said:

    Weird day to pick for a reshuffle with this coming?

    Or is he hoping any dead bodies Williamson digs up will be safely buried in the news?

    He has to get it out of the way as next week he's off to the UN in NY (and what are the chances he pops into Washington too?), then Parliament goes into recess.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,327
    edited September 15
    Seems like a really weird thing to make so much noise over. Surely there must be more?

    In Aus not only have they briefed the entire cabinet, they've briefed 3 Labor party members.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,970

    Hang on, this can't be true.

    I keep being told our foreign policy is finished after Brexit and the advantage is wholly with the EU.

    I wait to hear the detail but this could be a very dramatic development with lots of implications for NATO and others

    And this from Joe Biden not Trump
    I suspect it probably isn't - just some extra defence cooperation and a political statement - but I'm sure it will be interesting nonetheless.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,630
    We sure it ain’t aliens?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,580

    ping said:

    No Canada & NZ

    Interesting

    No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.
    But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

    Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,364
    The UK, USA and Australia combining forces, provides pretty much 24h coverage in monitoring the biggest adversary of the next few decades.
  • Sounds like a load of cobblers to me - a stunt to distract from, and make themselves look competent after, the Afghanistan debacle.

    Tell that to the French who are losing a $90bn submarine deal.....
    The Aussies have been grumbling about the French deal for ages - completely unrelated. If anything this thing tonight is just to give Morrison political cover to ditch it.
    In favour of the US - UK
    How does the UK benefit?
    Having a strategic military agreement with the US and Australia is good news for UK security and Japan and India to be involved
  • moonshine said:

    We sure it ain’t aliens?

    No its not. Trudeau hasn't been included.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,612
    JCVI dosing strategy:

    Other things to note:
    • Israel may have had a bigger waning problem than e.g the UK because of its shorter dosing interval. PHE paper would support that theory
    • Similarly, short dosing interval may be a factor in how bad US’s Delta wave has been (tho low US vax rates also key)


    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1438100756389847042?s=20
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,281
    ydoethur said:

    Weird day to pick for a reshuffle with this coming?

    Or is he hoping any dead bodies Williamson digs up will be safely buried in the news?

    A good day to bury an horrendous inflation figure.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,327

    ydoethur said:

    Weird day to pick for a reshuffle with this coming?

    Or is he hoping any dead bodies Williamson digs up will be safely buried in the news?

    He has to get it out of the way as next week he's off to the UN in NY (and what are the chances he pops into Washington too?), then Parliament goes into recess.
    Which makes it even more curious. Morrison from down under is also heading to NY next week. Surely it'd make sense to make the announcement in person?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,043
    Are we invading Afghanistan again?
  • Chameleon said:

    Seems like a really weird thing to make so much noise over.

    They've still got the screams of Afghanistan ringing in their ears. Biden and Boris want to press the reset button.
  • ydoethur said:

    Weird day to pick for a reshuffle with this coming?

    Or is he hoping any dead bodies Williamson digs up will be safely buried in the news?

    A good day to bury an horrendous inflation figure.
    0.2% above target range is horrendous? 🤔
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,364
    Leon said:

    ping said:

    No Canada & NZ

    Interesting

    No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.
    But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

    Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?
    You’d think they would be clambering to be a part of it, but maybe the timing falls under their rules of purdah around the election?

    NZ looks isolated though, they have a choice to make between the West and China.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,159

    ping said:

    No Canada & NZ

    Interesting

    Nor France
    I doubt any EU country would be trusted. Including 1 means having to include all 27 so even if we wanted France in the club it means having Germany in there who will no doubt leak said technology to China.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,612
    Leon said:

    ping said:

    No Canada & NZ

    Interesting

    No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.
    But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

    Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?
    I'm sure Canada's not being "cut out" - but on Submarine tech they've little to offer
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,511
    Leon said:

    ping said:

    No Canada & NZ

    Interesting

    No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.
    But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

    Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?
    Could be a few things. The election is one and it might be that either Trudeau is concerned about joining forces with these three and pissing off his left base, in which case he comes in post-election.

    A second, more worrying thought is that the other three think that Canada has been too infiltrated by Chinese interests and so would prove unreliable.

    Re Arden, I can imagine this has the potential to be a headache for her if the end result is NZ is cut out of a major strategic alliance that its big sister partner is part of and people believe it is down to her actions and behaviour.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,567
    FPT, and whilst we are on Underground Trivia.

    Where are the two oldest deep level stations (ie in a tunnel rather than cut/cover)? No Googling now...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,071
    moonshine said:

    We sure it ain’t aliens?

    100% certain it’s not aliens.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,612

    Sounds like a load of cobblers to me - a stunt to distract from, and make themselves look competent after, the Afghanistan debacle.

    Tell that to the French who are losing a $90bn submarine deal.....
    The Aussies have been grumbling about the French deal for ages - completely unrelated. If anything this thing tonight is just to give Morrison political cover to ditch it.
    In favour of the US - UK
    How does the UK benefit?
    Having a strategic military agreement with the US and Australia is good news for UK security and Japan and India to be involved
    There is a "Quad" (US, Oz, India, Japan) meeting in person in Washington next week....wonder if Johnson might drop in.....
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,511

    Hang on, this can't be true.

    I keep being told our foreign policy is finished after Brexit and the advantage is wholly with the EU.

    I wait to hear the detail but this could be a very dramatic development with lots of implications for NATO and others

    And this from Joe Biden not Trump
    I suspect it probably isn't - just some extra defence cooperation and a political statement - but I'm sure it will be interesting nonetheless.
    Possibly but I don't see why that would not be a Defence Secretary announcement instead of Heads of Government. Which suggests something major.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,580
    The combined nominal GDP of CAUKUS (if Canada joins, and they surely will?) is a pretty impressive $27bn (most of it the USA of course)

    China's is $14.5 (but much higher on PPP)

    It would take China quite some time to overtake that, and they would never have the geographic, worldwide span

    This is all to peg China down
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,043

    Sounds like a load of cobblers to me - a stunt to distract from, and make themselves look competent after, the Afghanistan debacle.

    Tell that to the French who are losing a $90bn submarine deal.....
    The Aussies have been grumbling about the French deal for ages - completely unrelated. If anything this thing tonight is just to give Morrison political cover to ditch it.
    In favour of the US - UK
    How does the UK benefit?
    Will Rolls Royce supply the reactors?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,364

    ydoethur said:

    Weird day to pick for a reshuffle with this coming?

    Or is he hoping any dead bodies Williamson digs up will be safely buried in the news?

    A good day to bury an horrendous inflation figure.
    0.2% above target range is horrendous? 🤔
    Maybe horrendous for the Governor, who will have to write a letter to the Chancellor - but for most of the rest of us, not so much.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,630
    What about “China lab was source of covid, we now form an alliance to counter them”.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,199

    I posted this this afternoon:

    President Joe Biden will announce a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, a White House official and a congressional staffer told POLITICO.

    The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities.


    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/15/biden-deal-uk-australia-defense-tech-sharing-511877

    Is it normal for these sort of arrangements to be announced on TV?
    That's what I was wondering. None of them have an election coming so the obvious cynical explanation doesn't wash. Intended as a public warning to China, perhaps, but seems too oblique for that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,791
    China.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,968
    MrEd said:

    Hang on, this can't be true.

    I keep being told our foreign policy is finished after Brexit and the advantage is wholly with the EU.

    I wait to hear the detail but this could be a very dramatic development with lots of implications for NATO and others

    And this from Joe Biden not Trump
    I suspect it probably isn't - just some extra defence cooperation and a political statement - but I'm sure it will be interesting nonetheless.
    Possibly but I don't see why that would not be a Defence Secretary announcement instead of Heads of Government. Which suggests something major.
    I think it may just suggest leaders don't like to share the limelight.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,630

    moonshine said:

    We sure it ain’t aliens?

    100% certain it’s not aliens.
    Yes Japan would be part of it if it was, since the bilateral pact on UAP info sharing was announced
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 45,410
    edited September 15
    Liverpool on fire

    But missed a penalty just now
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,612
    The appointment of @SimonClarkeMP, one of the most prominent red wall Tories, as chief secretary is a signal Boris Johnson wants to smash the Treasury orthodoxy. Along with Gove, shows this reshuffle is about levelling up.

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1438218062986100736?s=20
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,511

    I posted this this afternoon:

    President Joe Biden will announce a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, a White House official and a congressional staffer told POLITICO.

    The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities.


    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/15/biden-deal-uk-australia-defense-tech-sharing-511877

    Is it normal for these sort of arrangements to be announced on TV?
    That's what I was wondering. None of them have an election coming so the obvious cynical explanation doesn't wash. Intended as a public warning to China, perhaps, but seems too oblique for that.
    Merger of military capabilities?

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,970
    MaxPB said:

    ping said:

    No Canada & NZ

    Interesting

    Nor France
    I doubt any EU country would be trusted. Including 1 means having to include all 27 so even if we wanted France in the club it means having Germany in there who will no doubt leak said technology to China.
    But...but... BREXIT!!!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,327

    I posted this this afternoon:

    President Joe Biden will announce a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, a White House official and a congressional staffer told POLITICO.

    The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities.


    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/15/biden-deal-uk-australia-defense-tech-sharing-511877

    Is it normal for these sort of arrangements to be announced on TV?
    That's what I was wondering. None of them have an election coming so the obvious cynical explanation doesn't wash. Intended as a public warning to China, perhaps, but seems too oblique for that.
    Given that they'll all be together in person next week, surely it'd make sense to announce it then, and I can't see any obvious reason why a slightly increased defence alliance being formed requires a rush announcement. If it was largely the subs, there's little reason for us to be involved.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,281

    Are we invading Afghanistan again?

    France, from what I've picked up on here tonight.
  • Leon said:

    The combined nominal GDP of CAUKUS (if Canada joins, and they surely will?) is a pretty impressive $27bn (most of it the USA of course)

    China's is $14.5 (but much higher on PPP)

    It would take China quite some time to overtake that, and they would never have the geographic, worldwide span

    This is all to peg China down

    They're going to announce the political and economic union of US, UK, Canada and Australia? That will certainly put Dominic Raab's demotion in the shade!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,540
    MaxPB said:

    ping said:

    No Canada & NZ

    Interesting

    Nor France
    I doubt any EU country would be trusted. Including 1 means having to include all 27 so even if we wanted France in the club it means having Germany in there who will no doubt leak said technology to China.
    France vetoed plans for European defence integration way back in the 1950s. In practice I don't think they would go through with anything that ceded real control to the EU.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 8,817

    Liverpool on fire

    Is that post interesting, or is it about football?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,970
    Leon said:

    The combined nominal GDP of CAUKUS (if Canada joins, and they surely will?) is a pretty impressive $27bn (most of it the USA of course)

    China's is $14.5 (but much higher on PPP)

    It would take China quite some time to overtake that, and they would never have the geographic, worldwide span

    This is all to peg China down

    UK + AUS ain't far off 100 million extra peeps so worth the US's time given the strategic location and reach.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,791
    MrEd said:

    Hang on, this can't be true.

    I keep being told our foreign policy is finished after Brexit and the advantage is wholly with the EU.

    I wait to hear the detail but this could be a very dramatic development with lots of implications for NATO and others

    And this from Joe Biden not Trump
    I suspect it probably isn't - just some extra defence cooperation and a political statement - but I'm sure it will be interesting nonetheless.
    Possibly but I don't see why that would not be a Defence Secretary announcement instead of Heads of Government. Which suggests something major.
    Johnson's bridge to Ireland is going to be extended to Australia via San Fransisco?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Liverpool on fire

    Is that post interesting, or is it about football?
    Very good but yes football
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,968
    Leon said:

    ping said:

    No Canada & NZ

    Interesting

    No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.
    But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

    Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?
    If the reason was it was election related why not just wait a week?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,511
    kle4 said:

    MrEd said:

    Hang on, this can't be true.

    I keep being told our foreign policy is finished after Brexit and the advantage is wholly with the EU.

    I wait to hear the detail but this could be a very dramatic development with lots of implications for NATO and others

    And this from Joe Biden not Trump
    I suspect it probably isn't - just some extra defence cooperation and a political statement - but I'm sure it will be interesting nonetheless.
    Possibly but I don't see why that would not be a Defence Secretary announcement instead of Heads of Government. Which suggests something major.
    I think it may just suggest leaders don't like to share the limelight.
    Possibly but I think the timing is also key - 10pm London (TV news programmes), 5pm ET (Prime time US) and 7am Sydney (start of the day)

    (although admittedly fitting in all three places is bloody difficult)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,364

    I posted this this afternoon:

    President Joe Biden will announce a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, a White House official and a congressional staffer told POLITICO.

    The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities.


    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/15/biden-deal-uk-australia-defense-tech-sharing-511877

    Is it normal for these sort of arrangements to be announced on TV?
    Presumably they’ve chosen a time that works for the three countries. (10pm UK, 5pm Washington, I think 8am Canebrra), and it had to be announced simultaneously. Briefing to Parliament coming first thing tomorrow?
  • Sandpit said:

    I posted this this afternoon:

    President Joe Biden will announce a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, a White House official and a congressional staffer told POLITICO.

    The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities.


    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/15/biden-deal-uk-australia-defense-tech-sharing-511877

    Is it normal for these sort of arrangements to be announced on TV?
    Presumably they’ve chosen a time that works for the three countries. (10pm UK, 5pm Washington, I think 8am Canebrra), and it had to be announced simultaneously. Briefing to Parliament coming first thing tomorrow?
    Our colonies should operate on GMT....that would make things all much easier.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,630
    edited September 15
    Were this some sort of reaffirmation of the Anglo alliance, would we not have heard about it for months? Why the sudden announcement?
  • moonshine said:

    Were this some sort of reaffirmation of the Anglo alliance, would we not have heard about it for months? Why the sudden announcement?

    Maybe Australia deciding to ditch the deal with France officially
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,968
    edited September 15
    Speaking about Canadian elections what the heck happened in 2015 to see the Liberals gain 148 seats?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,567
    edited September 15

    moonshine said:

    Were this some sort of reaffirmation of the Anglo alliance, would we not have heard about it for months? Why the sudden announcement?

    Maybe Australia deciding to ditch the deal with France officially
    Why would they make a song and dance about that though?

    This is either a planned distraction from Afghanistan, or something has happened very recently that needed a response (without waiting for Canada to have their election).

    Definitely aliens. :smile:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,791
    edited September 15
    There's a long and interesting piece in last week's The New Statesman from Adam Tooze looking at US military and China and so on. Technology is key. Attacking counter insurgents in fly blown sandpits is old news. Now it is space, cyber, AI, robots and so on.

    This could be something to do with 10pm announcement.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,511
    Even if you do not like Trump, the second to last paragraph is spot on:

    https://spectatorworld.com/topic/elected-mark-milley-china-military/
  • moonshine said:

    Were this some sort of reaffirmation of the Anglo alliance, would we not have heard about it for months? Why the sudden announcement?

    I can't think of anything like this before. A triple heads of government presentation at short notice.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,511

    There's a long and interesting piece in last week's The New Statesman from Adam Tooze looking at US military and China and so on. Technology is key. Attacking counter insurgents in fly blown sandpits is old news. Now it is space, cyber, AI, robots and so on.

    This could be something to do with 10pm announcement.

    Read that. Adam Tooze is very good.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,125
    edited September 15
    moonshine said:

    Were this some sort of reaffirmation of the Anglo alliance, would we not have heard about it for months? Why the sudden announcement?

    I think this is just about Aus scrapping its submarine deal with France and going with the US - the pseudo historic profundity makes it easier for Scott Morrison to sell it back home. Boris is present to lend some authenticity and make himself look globally relevant.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,791
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Hang on, this can't be true.

    I keep being told our foreign policy is finished after Brexit and the advantage is wholly with the EU.

    I wait to hear the detail but this could be a very dramatic development with lots of implications for NATO and others

    And this from Joe Biden not Trump
    I suspect it probably isn't - just some extra defence cooperation and a political statement - but I'm sure it will be interesting nonetheless.
    Possibly but I don't see why that would not be a Defence Secretary announcement instead of Heads of Government. Which suggests something major.
    Johnson's bridge to Ireland is going to be extended to Australia via San Fransisco?
    Dilyn to become Joint Head of all three countries with Carrie as Regent
    I could see the UK electing a dog as leader frankly. But only if he is a rescue dog and there is a tale to tell of being saved from god knows what.
  • moonshine said:

    Were this some sort of reaffirmation of the Anglo alliance, would we not have heard about it for months? Why the sudden announcement?

    I can't think of anything like this before. A triple heads of government presentation at short notice.
    Nor can I

    It must be quite some agreement
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,966
    Leon said:

    ping said:

    No Canada & NZ

    Interesting

    No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.
    But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

    Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?
    Although you'd think Trudeau would absolutely love to be up on the world stage in the middle of the election. Great publicity, and really sucks for the Conservatives that he's the one shaking hands with Biden and Johnson.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,346
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    No Canada & NZ

    Interesting

    No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.
    But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

    Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?
    Although you'd think Trudeau would absolutely love to be up on the world stage in the middle of the election. Great publicity, and really sucks for the Conservatives that he's the one shaking hands with Biden and Johnson.
    Could it be purdah, or something similar?
  • MrEd said:

    Even if you do not like Trump, the second to last paragraph is spot on:

    https://spectatorworld.com/topic/elected-mark-milley-china-military/

    No, completely disagreed. If the President has gone off the deep-end then there absolutely should be some sanity check in the system. Eg if Trump launches an unprovoked nuclear attack there is no reason that Milley shouldn't double-check with the Veep and Cabinet if they're OK with that or wish to over-ride that by invoking the 25th.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited September 15
    You presume it must be something that requires immediate action. Canada election isn't far away and Boris mum just died (and he has been flat out so far this week with covid and reshuffle).

    Just a bit of nicety stuff would have thought could wait a couple of weeks.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,966
    Leon said:

    ping said:

    No Canada & NZ

    Interesting

    No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.
    But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

    Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?
    On your substantive point, it's not going to be just about the submarines (although I'm sure submarines will be part of it), I think it's going beyond NATO to a smaller, but more integrated defence cooperation agreement between the three largest countries in the Anglosphere, and which is World (rather than Atlantic or Pacific) in scope.

    Canada's non-inclusion probably reflects the fact that its defence spending as a percentage of GDP is now *well* below Germany's. They're a freeloader.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,364
    MrEd said:

    Even if you do not like Trump, the second to last paragraph is spot on:

    https://spectatorworld.com/topic/elected-mark-milley-china-military/

    Yes, but the US military have history for this sort of thing, saying that they can’t trust the President. The fact remains that they’ll be told to either execute the order or resign.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,580
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Hang on, this can't be true.

    I keep being told our foreign policy is finished after Brexit and the advantage is wholly with the EU.

    I wait to hear the detail but this could be a very dramatic development with lots of implications for NATO and others

    And this from Joe Biden not Trump
    I suspect it probably isn't - just some extra defence cooperation and a political statement - but I'm sure it will be interesting nonetheless.
    Possibly but I don't see why that would not be a Defence Secretary announcement instead of Heads of Government. Which suggests something major.
    Johnson's bridge to Ireland is going to be extended to Australia via San Fransisco?
    Dilyn to become Joint Head of all three countries with Carrie as Regent
    I still reckon they're re-uniting under the Crown but maybe they're skipping Charles and going straight to the new Queen Emma Raducanu, which is why it needs a pretty big build-up

    Fine by me. A really Hot Teen Queen (to be known as HTQ from now on)

  • RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    No Canada & NZ

    Interesting

    No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.
    But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

    Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?
    Although you'd think Trudeau would absolutely love to be up on the world stage in the middle of the election. Great publicity, and really sucks for the Conservatives that he's the one shaking hands with Biden and Johnson.
    Could it be purdah, or something similar?
    If its purdah and Canada are meant to be included then why announce it now? Then re-announce it in a few weeks with the Canadians?

    Surely you'd either announce it post-election or pre-election when purdah doesn't apply. Otherwise its very odd.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,788
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Weird day to pick for a reshuffle with this coming?

    Or is he hoping any dead bodies Williamson digs up will be safely buried in the news?

    A good day to bury an horrendous inflation figure.
    0.2% above target range is horrendous? 🤔
    Maybe horrendous for the Governor, who will have to write a letter to the Chancellor - but for most of the rest of us, not so much.
    I am sure that the governor can explain that the dropping out of the EOTHO scheme from last August when the Chancellor was subsidising meals out to create demand has distorted the inflation figure sufficiently to put it outwith target but this is an artificial blip, not a subject of serious concern.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,580
    Impressive singing at Anfield. Walk On, done very well

    https://twitter.com/ChantLFC/status/1438223178619408387?s=20
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,364
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Weird day to pick for a reshuffle with this coming?

    Or is he hoping any dead bodies Williamson digs up will be safely buried in the news?

    A good day to bury an horrendous inflation figure.
    0.2% above target range is horrendous? 🤔
    Maybe horrendous for the Governor, who will have to write a letter to the Chancellor - but for most of the rest of us, not so much.
    I am sure that the governor can explain that the dropping out of the EOTHO scheme from last August when the Chancellor was subsidising meals out to create demand has distorted the inflation figure sufficiently to put it outwith target but this is an artificial blip, not a subject of serious concern.
    Which is pretty much what the ONS said this morning. The government-backed promotions of a year ago unwinding, alongside temporary input price rises.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,247
    edited September 15
    Nevermind about some poxy US, UK and Aus announcement, the real news of the day is that Nadine is in the Cabinet!!!! :open_mouth:

    What would Tim say? :D
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,580
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    No Canada & NZ

    Interesting

    No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.
    But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

    Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?
    On your substantive point, it's not going to be just about the submarines (although I'm sure submarines will be part of it), I think it's going beyond NATO to a smaller, but more integrated defence cooperation agreement between the three largest countries in the Anglosphere, and which is World (rather than Atlantic or Pacific) in scope.

    Canada's non-inclusion probably reflects the fact that its defence spending as a percentage of GDP is now *well* below Germany's. They're a freeloader.

    Canada is bigger than Oz in population, GDP and geographical size, so you're not correct on "3 biggest"

    An Anglospherical defence union to match the intelligence union makes total sense, versus China, but Canada should be in it, and will be, I hope

    As someone else has said this is a real bind for Arden. Kiwis won't like being left out, to be China's toy
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,428
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Weird day to pick for a reshuffle with this coming?

    Or is he hoping any dead bodies Williamson digs up will be safely buried in the news?

    A good day to bury an horrendous inflation figure.
    0.2% above target range is horrendous? 🤔
    Maybe horrendous for the Governor, who will have to write a letter to the Chancellor - but for most of the rest of us, not so much.
    I am sure that the governor can explain that the dropping out of the EOTHO scheme from last August when the Chancellor was subsidising meals out to create demand has distorted the inflation figure sufficiently to put it outwith target but this is an artificial blip, not a subject of serious concern.
    Although some are predicting 4.0% by Christmas


    Something to do with supply and demand.

    Next month is most important for Treasury as it is used for next years benefits
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,364

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    No Canada & NZ

    Interesting

    No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.
    But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

    Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?
    Although you'd think Trudeau would absolutely love to be up on the world stage in the middle of the election. Great publicity, and really sucks for the Conservatives that he's the one shaking hands with Biden and Johnson.
    Could it be purdah, or something similar?
    If its purdah and Canada are meant to be included then why announce it now? Then re-announce it in a few weeks with the Canadians?

    Surely you'd either announce it post-election or pre-election when purdah doesn't apply. Otherwise its very odd.
    I wonder if the timing is driven here by the Aussie contract with the French.

    Or maybe there’s more to be announced, a summit of sorts that’s been going on in the background for months, hidden from view by the fact that these things can all be done online now with very few people involved?
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,245
    Completely off topic, here's a typical Caltech theoretical physicist:

    https://magazine.caltech.edu/post/socaltech-monica-jinwoo-kang
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 1,341

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    ping said:

    No Canada & NZ

    Interesting

    No NZ is no surprise as it involves nuclear and Ardern is a tad too chummy with Xi....Canada is in the middle of an election and only has (very old, British built), diesel electric subs.
    But this sounds like more than just a minor Treaty about submarines. This is a big strategic maneuver to counter China. I don't believe the US, UK or Oz would choose to cut out the Canadians. Why? Canada is a vast, resource rich and pretty powerful country by itself, and a firm English speaking ally of all three nations.

    Canada's absence is surely just because of their election?
    Although you'd think Trudeau would absolutely love to be up on the world stage in the middle of the election. Great publicity, and really sucks for the Conservatives that he's the one shaking hands with Biden and Johnson.
    Could it be purdah, or something similar?
    If its purdah and Canada are meant to be included then why announce it now? Then re-announce it in a few weeks with the Canadians?

    Surely you'd either announce it post-election or pre-election when purdah doesn't apply. Otherwise its very odd.
    Snap general election here!
This discussion has been closed.