Nope, no-one elected Mark Milley but no-one elected Vasili Arkhipov or Stanislav Petrov either, but we might not still be here if they hadn’t done what they did.
And US military swear oaths to obey lawful orders from their superiors, and the bit about defending the Constitution comes first IIRC. Hard to defend a constitution if the country it constitutes is a pile of smoking rubble.
Stanislav Petrov is a bad example. He was the Duty Officer and made a decision that the alarm was probably false.
It is slightly different to telling your opposite number you will give them advance notice of an attack and consult no civilian on your actions.
As I said to @ydoethur the question is, if Milley did this to a Democrat President under the same circumstances or a similar situation, would you see it as similarly justified or say it is wrong?
YES ABSOLUTELY! I mean seriously, you accuse @ydoethur of TDS, but I think that’s what you’re showing: that you think your idol can do no wrong. Of course the US military will not allow a deranged President to start a nuclear war without justification. As ydoethur said, Congress holds the power to go to war (and it is to their shame that they have allowed successive Presidents to run rings around that over many decades), and as I said they are only sworn to follow lawful orders.
If the Chinese had decided, “ooh, this is a great opportunity to conquer Taiwan”, then for sure Milley would have told them squat, but if you really think he should have sat by and let Trump start WW3 n a whim, it’s you that’s deranged!
France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
That aspect of it troubles me. A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just because
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far East
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.
I have @HYUFD as a remainer due to loyalty to party, not conviction but maybe I’m wrong
I have it the other way around.
Look at that stream of consciousness just now saying that Europe is the "other side of the world" from China. Pure Remain nonsense, the reality is as any Global Britain Brexiteer by conviction could tell you is that the entire world is interconnected and the continent is irrelevant.
The idea that the UK was safe from the USSR fifty years ago because of distance alone was complete claptrap and the idea that Europe isn't or shouldn't be relevant to China in the 21st century is just madness. The entire world is interconnected.
No it is reality, at the end of the day those under threat from invasion by China are Taiwan and to a lesser extent Japan and South Korea (with knock on effects for Australian and Indian security if that occurred). We are not under threat of invasion from China and since the Hong Kong handover we have no direct interest in the Far East. So the main powers in the region need to lead on their defence from China with US support, not us.
Russia is still far more of a threat to us militarily as it was in the days of the USSR than China is. Yes we can cooperate with other western nations on cybersecurity from Chinese cyber attacks etc but beyond that Moscow is more a threat to us than Beijing, see also Russian subs patrolling around our coast or the spies in Salisbury etc.
As Enoch Powell rightly said once the British Empire ended we became a power in Europe and the Atlantic, nothing more beyond that and certainly not without following the lead of the USA as Suez confirmed.
You mean you are using the rush of help to Hong Kong right now as an ultimate yardstick how it plays out?
I suspect the west led by Biden would not intervene to help Taiwan as it has not intervened to help Hong Kong, only Japan and S Korea could be guaranteed US led support if invaded by China.
Hence Taiwan will have to probably get nukes to add to its defences and give itself a chance of warning Beijing off
Are you not a little ahead of things there, all a bit 1984, will they ever really have a hunger for Japan and Korea as they have for Hong Kong and Taiwan?
At least we now know where Johnson is going to put the Trident boats after Scottish independence. They are obviously going to RAN Fleet Base West at Garden Island.
No as we will need them to deter Putin, not that the SNP are going to be allowed an indyref2 anyway
I liked the way you threw your Sindyref2 Molotov into the mix there.
The UK should now expect much of the EU to become even more blatantly hostile. Not even casual friends, just neighbours that glare over the hedge
In eastern Europe and Scandi they might like to be friendlier, but core western Europe will see us as near-enemies, certainly rivals
So be it.
I wonder where this leaves Scottish Nationalism (a bit screwed, foreign policywise?) but also, in the end, Ireland.
Because of the US-AU-UK alliance?
Nah. I think just as likely is a real push behind the scenes from the most Atlantic-minded EU and EEA countries to join this club.
We may even end up making friends in the EU as a result of this, because the UK is as route into this.
The big problem the EU has is that it is riven over Russia: some countries see it as a massive threat (whether the Baltics or the French), while others see it as a model to be emulated (Poland and Hungary).
It's very hard for the EU to stand up to Russia, given this split.
I wonder if it's nuclear weapons sharing as well as the subs?
I briefly wondered whether Australia might be looking to join Nato, but reports suggest a novel tripartite arrangement between the three countries concerned.
NATO has a pretty watertight North of the equator only clause in its constitution, I think.
Tropic of Cancer I think, as the Americans didn’t want to have to defend the European colonies still existing back then.
France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
That aspect of it troubles me. A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just because
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far East
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.
I have @HYUFD as a remainer due to loyalty to party, not conviction but maybe I’m wrong
I have it the other way around.
Look at that stream of consciousness just now saying that Europe is the "other side of the world" from China. Pure Remain nonsense, the reality is as any Global Britain Brexiteer by conviction could tell you is that the entire world is interconnected and the continent is irrelevant.
The idea that the UK was safe from the USSR fifty years ago because of distance alone was complete claptrap and the idea that Europe isn't or shouldn't be relevant to China in the 21st century is just madness. The entire world is interconnected.
No it is reality, at the end of the day those under threat from invasion by China are Taiwan and to a lesser extent Japan and South Korea (with knock on effects for Australian and Indian security if that occurred). We are not under threat of invasion from China and since the Hong Kong handover we have no direct interest in the Far East. So the main powers in the region need to lead on their defence from China with US support, not us.
Russia is still far more of a threat to us militarily as it was in the days of the USSR than China is. Yes we can cooperate with other western nations on cybersecurity from Chinese cyber attacks etc but beyond that Moscow is more a threat to us than Beijing, see also Russian subs patrolling around our coast or the spies in Salisbury etc.
As Enoch Powell rightly said once the British Empire ended we became a power in Europe and the Atlantic, nothing more beyond that and certainly not without following the lead of the USA as Suez confirmed.
You mean you are using the rush of help to Hong Kong right now as an ultimate yardstick how it plays out?
I suspect the west led by Biden would not intervene to help Taiwan as it has not intervened to help Hong Kong, only Japan and S Korea could be guaranteed US led support if invaded by China.
Hence Taiwan will have to probably get nukes to add to its defences and give itself a chance of warning Beijing off
But surely all Empires have been commercial projects first and foremost?
Japan and Korea? Why would they want the trouble of invading and holding everywhere, when they can get so rich manufacturing everything for us, and have it in a box on our doorstep next morning? 🐪
France must be spitting mad about this. Not only are they losing a AU$90bn contract, they also won't have any influence on the direction of this new global alliance. It won't be in the room when new technology developments are shared and it won't have anyone in the room to tell it what happened when decisions are made.
The sixth or seventh largest global defence power has been left out, it's a really, really big slap in their face.
That aspect of it troubles me. A serious potential fracture in the western alliance is not to be celebrated.
I agree, as I said earlier, I'm worried that the US is unnecessarily throwing away the US-EU relationship now that we're not in it.
We need as wide an alliance as possible to take on China and make a lasting difference. I know it's not easy to herd all 27 EU nations into doing anything, especially take measures which will result in inflation, broken supply chains and 5-7 years of economic difficulty but that doesn't mean it's not worth bothering.
But they have been such twats over Brexit. They tried to destroy it, and then they tried to harm us, overtly. Just because
It is no wonder the UK has now hugged its Anglo cousins closer, in a way which annoys them. What did they expect?
That said, ultimately we do need AUKUS united with the EU. A lot depends on the next German Chancellor
Only to contain Putin through NATO, to contain Xi the EU is far less important, Japan and India and South Korea will be more important players in a NATO of the Far East
That's utterly naive, we live in a global interconnected world.
Remainers like yourself are absolutely determined to divide the world into continental blocs but when data, cash and even intercontinental ballistic missiles can get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world the idea geography means you can just ignore portions of the world is utterly bonkers.
Where are the two oldest deep level stations (ie in a tunnel rather than cut/cover)? No Googling now...
Nobody bit on this, which wasn't surprising because it was a very dull question, albeit one posed because I was getting a bit bored with the London stuff.
The answer is of course that any fans catching the train back from Anfield to Birkenhead this evening went through both of them.
Anyway, I thought this evenings conference was interesting from one point of view. Is this going to be much more common now everyone is comfortable with Zoom?
Got a bit of trouble at home? Set up an international call and appear Prime Ministerial / Presidential in minutes!
Didn't exactly work for Biden though. Him making it through 4 years looks unlikelier by the day.
Where are the two oldest deep level stations (ie in a tunnel rather than cut/cover)? No Googling now...
Nobody bit on this, which wasn't surprising because it was a very dull question, albeit one posed because I was getting a bit bored with the London stuff.
The answer is of course that any fans catching the train back from Anfield to Birkenhead this evening went through both of them.
Anyway, I thought this evenings conference was interesting from one point of view. Is this going to be much more common now everyone is comfortable with Zoom?
Got a bit of trouble at home? Set up an international call and appear Prime Ministerial / Presidential in minutes!
Didn't exactly work for Biden though. Him making it through 4 years looks unlikelier by the day.
Well, the original underground was along the Euston Road, but I'm pretty sure that is all cut/cover.
Given the reliance of Australian economy on China, its a lot braver than UK or US lobbing some nasty words and finger waving Chinas way. They could easily take the NZ approach and play nice with them.
Given the reliance of Australian economy on China, its a lot braver than UK or US lobbing some nasty words and finger waving Chinas way. They could easily take the NZ approach and play nice with them.
That's very true.
And that reliance is multi-faceted: it's exports of commodities, it's the country's education sector, and it's an increase amount of direct investment.
When you think about it, its quite incredible that it is now just expected that they land the booster back on the drone ship...which of course they have done again.
@MacaesBruno I must confess I am perplexed. Everything about today’s announcement seems designed to rile continental Europeans. The whiff of “English-speaking peoples”, the coincidence to the day with important, strategic announcements in Brussels, the direct hit on French industrial base…
@MacaesBruno I must confess I am perplexed. Everything about today’s announcement seems designed to rile continental Europeans. The whiff of “English-speaking peoples”, the coincidence to the day with important, strategic announcements in Brussels, the direct hit on French industrial base…
@MacaesBruno I must confess I am perplexed. Everything about today’s announcement seems designed to rile continental Europeans. The whiff of “English-speaking peoples”, the coincidence to the day with important, strategic announcements in Brussels, the direct hit on French industrial base…
@MacaesBruno I must confess I am perplexed. Everything about today’s announcement seems designed to rile continental Europeans. The whiff of “English-speaking peoples”, the coincidence to the day with important, strategic announcements in Brussels, the direct hit on French industrial base…
Jeeps. The French ambassador in DC. They’re not happy
“The 🇺🇸 choice to exclude a 🇪🇺 ally and partner such as 🇫🇷 from a structuring partnership with Australia, at a time when we are facing unprecedented challenges in the Indo-Pacific region (...) shows a lack of coherence that 🇫🇷 can only note and regret.”
Jeeps. The French ambassador in DC. They’re not happy
“The 🇺🇸 choice to exclude a 🇪🇺 ally and partner such as 🇫🇷 from a structuring partnership with Australia, at a time when we are facing unprecedented challenges in the Indo-Pacific region (...) shows a lack of coherence that 🇫🇷 can only note and regret.”
Jeeps. The French ambassador in DC. They’re not happy
“The 🇺🇸 choice to exclude a 🇪🇺 ally and partner such as 🇫🇷 from a structuring partnership with Australia, at a time when we are facing unprecedented challenges in the Indo-Pacific region (...) shows a lack of coherence that 🇫🇷 can only note and regret.”
It’s revealing how they frame Australia as a pawn with no agency.
France is now forced to develop a true EU defence capability, with Germany as an equal and eventually superior parther. But I sense their heart isn’t in it. Intriguing
Isn’t the more likely outcome Taiwan has a referendum and votes to unite with China? They fled communism, but now China got more billionaires and millionaire than anyone. Being under the nationalistic umbrella might actually appeal to the Taiwanese
And the silk road China is building reaches Europe, and UK workers all use their jobs because of cheap imports? Can we blow up that dangerous road with our subs instead? Isn’t that the realistic threat. There’s numerous ways to take a country into serfdom and client state. ☹️
I thought that was a pretty likely outcome a decade ago. There was a massive thawing of relations under Hu Jintao, with direct flights opening up, and Taiwan changing its laws to allow Chinese firms to own strategic assets.
Not any more.
Relations have really deteriorated. The Taiwanese are investing heavily in defensive weaponry, including a fleet of hunter killer submarines, and upgrading all their planes.
Yet despite what governments are doing unification is still a thing amongst the people.
the same reasons you thought it likely a decade ago, they will never go away will they?
Firstly, the Taiwanese share the same nationalism as China, so that’s a factor in reunification that’s never going to go away. As Norman Tebbit would put it, who do the Taiwanese cheer for when the US and China play each other at cricket?
Secondly, they actually share the same capitalist idea’s now - look at the number of Billion and Millionaires in China.
Which brings us to an interesting third factor, how people overlook some things when there is opportunity to get get rich. As in many Taiwanese may see unification as making them and families richer and open up all sorts of opportunities.
Good. Not finding the more assertive China under Emperor Xi to their liking?
Is that how the article reads to you?
I am reading it now. That's why I put it as a question mark beforehand, as a potential guess.
My take out, amongst the articles waffle and oddly chosen metaphors, Two factors could, in a period distort such polling, if KMT or DPP are currently in the political ascendency, the sort of thing that will be in cycles, and Hong Kong, how it actually plays out in terms of impacting Taiwanese thinking, independence or unification.
So it’s not what snapshot polls may say at anytime, it’s what wise old heads sense will happen in the long term. As the article itself says, they look to Hong Kong and imagine that to be their fate eventually. Who is actually laying it on the line for Hong Kong?
So fatalism also the greater Chinese resolve to win this seemed to be the suggestion how it eventually plays out. Though pretty much disguised in the article behind fighting talk.
We haven’t really been awake to how China has been winning this Cold War for so long. It’s not an old fashioned military thing. How many countries throughout the third world, and around the world from Caribbean throughout Africa, love China for the largesse, the construction projects that would never have happened if it wasn’t for China?
Even UK. It’s only in recent years the Tory government have thrown China out of our telecom networks and cancelled the nuclear power station China was to build for us, isn’t it? Even US. only under Trump was the manufacture of all the Apple products brought back to the United States.
Chinese soft power. The sort that ought to have concerned the government before it cut the aid budget.
This is a powerful answer to those who thought the US was pulling back and the propaganda claiming Washington wasn’t a reliable ally... Doesn't "those" include Tugendhat ?
Jeeps. The French ambassador in DC. They’re not happy
“The 🇺🇸 choice to exclude a 🇪🇺 ally and partner such as 🇫🇷 from a structuring partnership with Australia, at a time when we are facing unprecedented challenges in the Indo-Pacific region (...) shows a lack of coherence that 🇫🇷 can only note and regret.”
It’s revealing how they frame Australia as a pawn with no agency.
France is now forced to develop a true EU defence capability, with Germany as an equal and eventually superior parther. But I sense their heart isn’t in it. Intriguing
You need to be more cynical. France would love an EU defence capability because it means spending German money in French arms factories. France's complaint about last night's announcement is that it hoped to sell French submarines to Australia.
Jeeps. The French ambassador in DC. They’re not happy
“The 🇺🇸 choice to exclude a 🇪🇺 ally and partner such as 🇫🇷 from a structuring partnership with Australia, at a time when we are facing unprecedented challenges in the Indo-Pacific region (...) shows a lack of coherence that 🇫🇷 can only note and regret.”
It’s revealing how they frame Australia as a pawn with no agency.
France is now forced to develop a true EU defence capability, with Germany as an equal and eventually superior parther. But I sense their heart isn’t in it. Intriguing
France has some pretty solid defence technology: Dassault makes pretty good fight planes (and their drone program is late but moving quickly), Safran is good in rockets and jets for fighters, Thales makes (overpriced) big ticket items like submarines.
Sweden also has some pretty decent tech.
Germany has money.
It's not that bad a combination, from a technical point of view.
The real issue the EU has is that it's not unified in its goals. Some see Russia as an enemy to be opposed, others a friend to be embraced. Some see China as a threat, and others as an export market.
Jeeps. The French ambassador in DC. They’re not happy
“The 🇺🇸 choice to exclude a 🇪🇺 ally and partner such as 🇫🇷 from a structuring partnership with Australia, at a time when we are facing unprecedented challenges in the Indo-Pacific region (...) shows a lack of coherence that 🇫🇷 can only note and regret.”
France was excluded, not because they're unreliable (from a security perspective they're actually pretty good), but because any negotations would have taken four years, and there would have to be a Senior French ex-Politician as the public figurehead. And France just isn't that important any more.
Jeeps. The French ambassador in DC. They’re not happy
“The 🇺🇸 choice to exclude a 🇪🇺 ally and partner such as 🇫🇷 from a structuring partnership with Australia, at a time when we are facing unprecedented challenges in the Indo-Pacific region (...) shows a lack of coherence that 🇫🇷 can only note and regret.”
France was excluded, not because they're unreliable (from a security perspective they're actually pretty good), but because any negotations would have taken four years, and there would have to be a Senior French ex-Politician as the public figurehead. And France just isn't that important any more.
France was excluded because the whole point was to cancel a French submarines order and replace it with an American one. Obviously, France could never have agreed to that.
Jeeps. The French ambassador in DC. They’re not happy
“The 🇺🇸 choice to exclude a 🇪🇺 ally and partner such as 🇫🇷 from a structuring partnership with Australia, at a time when we are facing unprecedented challenges in the Indo-Pacific region (...) shows a lack of coherence that 🇫🇷 can only note and regret.”
France was excluded, not because they're unreliable (from a security perspective they're actually pretty good), but because any negotations would have taken four years, and there would have to be a Senior French ex-Politician as the public figurehead. And France just isn't that important any more.
France was excluded because the whole point was to cancel a French submarines order and replace it with an American one. Obviously, France could never have agreed to that.
To be fair, the French got exceptionally greedy on that order. The Shortfin Barracuda had already increased in cost, and the Aussies were getting less of the construction work than they had paid for. Key deadlines had been missed. They really should have gone with the Japanese Soryu-class.
I do wonder if a deal could be done to prevent the Aussies having the vast cost of refitting their existing Collins-class. Whilst they wait for new boats, 'loan' the Aussies a spare Los Angeles class, to get nuclear know-how into the Australian navy.
Comments
If the Chinese had decided, “ooh, this is a great opportunity to conquer Taiwan”, then for sure Milley would have told them squat, but if you really think he should have sat by and let Trump start WW3 n a whim, it’s you that’s deranged!
https://twitter.com/SuzyJourno/status/1438281841988018178?s=20
I still think today's posturing is a decade late.
Nah. I think just as likely is a real push behind the scenes from the most Atlantic-minded EU and EEA countries to join this club.
We may even end up making friends in the EU as a result of this, because the UK is as route into this.
The big problem the EU has is that it is riven over Russia: some countries see it as a massive threat (whether the Baltics or the French), while others see it as a model to be emulated (Poland and Hungary).
It's very hard for the EU to stand up to Russia, given this split.
Japan and Korea? Why would they want the trouble of invading and holding everywhere, when they can get so rich manufacturing everything for us, and have it in a box on our doorstep next morning? 🐪
The answer is of course that any fans catching the train back from Anfield to Birkenhead this evening went through both of them.
Anyway, I thought this evenings conference was interesting from one point of view. Is this going to be much more common now everyone is comfortable with Zoom?
Got a bit of trouble at home? Set up an international call and appear Prime Ministerial / Presidential in minutes!
Didn't exactly work for Biden though. Him making it through 4 years looks unlikelier by the day.
I would appreciate it if Boris could get Sleepy Uncle Joe to open up the air corridor with the US ASAP...
@Inspiration4X
! Go Falcon 9! Go Dragon!
https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1438292412820979712?s=20
And that reliance is multi-faceted: it's exports of commodities, it's the country's education sector, and it's an increase amount of direct investment.
I must confess I am perplexed. Everything about today’s announcement seems designed to rile continental Europeans. The whiff of “English-speaking peoples”, the coincidence to the day with important, strategic announcements in Brussels, the direct hit on French industrial base…
https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1438297184512974854
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1438298533686243329
“The 🇺🇸 choice to exclude a 🇪🇺 ally and partner such as 🇫🇷 from a structuring partnership with Australia, at a time when we are facing unprecedented challenges in the Indo-Pacific region (...) shows a lack of coherence that 🇫🇷 can only note and regret.”
https://twitter.com/franceintheus/status/1438297090845720577?s=21
Doesn't "those" include Tugendhat ?
Sweden also has some pretty decent tech.
Germany has money.
It's not that bad a combination, from a technical point of view.
The real issue the EU has is that it's not unified in its goals. Some see Russia as an enemy to be opposed, others a friend to be embraced. Some see China as a threat, and others as an export market.
I do wonder if a deal could be done to prevent the Aussies having the vast cost of refitting their existing Collins-class. Whilst they wait for new boats, 'loan' the Aussies a spare Los Angeles class, to get nuclear know-how into the Australian navy.
That would be a real prize for Boris. No going back to the EU if it meant leaving that.