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Starmer edging up in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
Starmer edging up in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
We are only a few weeks away from the party conference season and although the events have been truncated the big set pieces will be the speeches of Johnson and Starmer.
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Primus inter pares.
More evidence cases are ticking up.
I still think he needs to definitively and metaphorically drive a stake through the beating heart of Corbynite policies - that may be a little overdramatic though would be good tv. Perhaps "de-Corbynisation" (to match today's mood) would be a better phrase.
It's only 2021 - it should be all about generalities, there'll be time for specifics later. We need to have some sense of how a Labour Government led by Starmer would govern Britain. What will be its guiding principles, what will be its key objectives? In the light of today, can it out-green the Conservatives in terms of looking credible and serious on the environment?
On topic, lay the favourite. Probably lay the second favourite too.
Even Howard had a lead at some point didn’t he?
Starmer hasn’t even come close.
Johnny Depp to get lifetime achievement award from prominent film festival
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2021/aug/09/johnny-depp-award-film-festival-san-sebastian-donostia-spain
Some time ago there was an extremely controversial discussion re the RNLI rescuing migrants in the English Channel and I said I would contact my local MP, who is also a personal friend, about the issue. He promised to seek clarification from the Home Office, and he has sent their reply to me today.
I promised I would publish the Home Office response on receipt and accordingly I note it below
From The Home Office 4th August 2021
Thank you for your letter of the 15th July to the Home Secretary on behalf of one of your constituents about the Nationality and Borders Bill and the role of the RNLI. I am replying as Minister for Immigration Compliance and Justice.
The Nationality and Borders Bill targets ruthless criminal gangs who put lives at risk by smuggling people across the Channel. It does not change the Government’s approach to existing obligations under international maritime law, including the duty to protect lives at sea. Organizations such as HM Coastguard and RNLI, and individuals, will be able to continue to rescue those in distress at sea as they do now.
The changes are not intended to punish humanitarian actions or to deter people from seeking help from the authorities where they are being exploited and abused. The Government recognises and welcomes the desire of individuals and community groups to help.
We will fully address these issues in policy guidance to ensure that proper account is taken of the circumstances and motives of any individual offering aid and assistance to someone they know have entered the UK illegally; or to be remaining without permission, and that any punitive action is proportionate and in the public interest.
We have a proud track record of helping those facing persecution, oppression and tyranny and we stand by our moral and legal obligations to help innocent people fleeing cruelty around the world. Since 2015, we have resettled almost 25,000 men, women and children seeking refuge from persecution across the world – more than any EU country. We have also welcomed more than 29,000 close relatives through refugee family reunion. In 2019, the UK received more asylum applications from unaccompanied asylum-seeking children than any country in the EU and we were second in 2020
I hope this response has clarified our proposals. Thank you for sharing your constituent’s concerns on this important matter.
END
The whole point of my link to this article, that you thought I thought from 2021, was that it was from 2018. It proves that the fact we now have 100k shortages was expected, and nothing to do with Brexit.
“ In a report released this week, European Road Freight Transport 2018, the supply chain analyst shows that in just six countries – the UK, Germany, France, Denmark Sweden and Norway – the shortage of drivers adds up to 127,500.
The UK leads the way with a shortage of 52,000 drivers, but is closely followed by Germany at 45,000 vacancies – with predictions that this could increase by a staggering 28,000 each year.
Tim Philips, director of Duma Consulting and former chief executive of Freightex, wrote, in a commentary in the report, that simply bringing in drivers from East Europe has, in turn, created a similar gap in the markets they left.
“This is currently being partially filled by drivers from further afield, such as Ukraine. However this is not an inexhaustible supply and there are trucks parked up with no drivers,” he adds.“
https://www.bifa.org/news/articles/2018/dec/truck-driver-shortage-crisis-now-spreading-across-the-whole-of-europe
And that award has definitely achieved it's aim of getting publicity for the festival.
Positivity, Cameron had it, so did Blair, the last two Opposition leaders to win power. Before my time, but Thatcher had it too.
What’s 2023’s version of Things Can Only Get Better?
He cannot out Tory the Tories on the constitution (eg Scottish independence).
He cannot out Green the Greens on environmental issues.
Would he not be wiser focussing on the concerns of ordinary working people, ie “labour”?
Looking back at the media in 1945, there was a real optimism about the power of "the atom" to improve people's lives and to rebuild a more prosperous world after the years of conflict.
This challenge is different and more insidious.
I've said on here many times and I stand by the notion human ingenuity, once released, is capable of almost anything both creative and destructive (the atomic bomb being a good example of the latter and perhaps the former as well).
Technological solutions to and mitigation of the impacts of man-made climate change have and will emerge. The problem is we are incredibly sensitive to and affected by relatively minor changes in the climatic structure but at least we now recognise the impact changes in one area of the globe have on the rest of the planet.
It's a huge and all-embracing subject and impacts every part of our lives.
Our current shortage is caused by Brexit.
Only the zealots can't admit it.
But 2018 was after we voted to Brexit so if people had their wits about them then they would have been discounting the final form of Brexit for at least two years.
When it comes to the campaign, Boris will extend his lead/reduce the deficit if there is one, so Sir Keir’s party best have a 6-7 point lead by then
Which leaves the 17/1 shot Liz Truss as the only one left.
We'll be hearing about cases falling on the news now for a bit though whilst the numbers are heading up. And by the time we're hearing about lower cases they'll be falling - with the even more lagged ONS data chucked in for good measure.
"The industry is experiencing a severe shortage, which is expected to grow even worse over the next decade. According to the latest data from the American Trucking Associations (ATA), the industry was short 60,800 drivers as of late 2018"
https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/talent-acquisition/pages/how-trucking-companies-are-responding-to-a-critical-driver-shortage.aspx
The only other leader of the Westminster duopoly who I also think more warmly of with the passing of time is John Major. Last decent Tory. Did bloody well in Scotland I seem to recall. Didn’t interfere too much in the affairs of the Scottish Office. Old school.
In 8 weeks around 4m additional people will have entered the immunity funnel (by first vaccine or infection) it will take us up to near 80% immunity. The pandemic is over in the UK.
Oh, sorry, were you not talking about OGH’s holiday plans?
I am sure if it becomes a real issue we will hear plenty from iSage who seem to be quite quiet at present
However, it's not impossible that the Covid situation is unique, with a rally round the leader effect, and the public being more forgiving of government mistakes.
If we soon return to normal, and if Starmer does have a chance, then you'd expect to see massive leads for Starmer at that point, sometime in 2022 I guess.
Thank goodness Britain opted for stability and strong Government, otherwise the past six years would've been a total sh1t-show.
I suggest it's at least approaching the time for some more nuanced figures.
The most likely reason it’s bad now is the pingdemic in my opinion, something else to blame Boris for if people can fight the muscle memory of saying it’s down to Brexit
How much do you think NZ would need? 😉
It's Brexit...
The gold standard for deaths is the ONS death certificate analysis but that's slow and expensive - as a result it is only complete to the 9th of July.
As you say the press has been going on about how cases are totally falling and R is sub 1 based on the ONS numbers (slow and very good) but even the Specimen Data graph is showing an uptick which means cases started rising at last week.
*cough*Exactly as I predicted*cough*
For more on this and other news visit http://news.sky.com
“ The Road Haulage Association (RHA) recently published an open letter to the PM, in which they state that the UK has a shortfall of 100,000 HGV drivers. This is an increase on the RHA’s pre-COVID estimate of 60,000. Another organisation, Logistics UK, has issued a statement suggesting that the shortfall in numbers is 90,000 versus 76,000 before COVID and EU Exit.
To compare, ONS data shows that about 313,000 people in the UK worked as HGV drivers in Q4 2019 (ie: before the outbreak of COVID-19), so the driver “pool” may be a quarter under-strength. In addition to driver shortages, IGD’s contacts also report difficulty filling associated roles such as forklift drivers, warehouse operatives and mechanics.”
https://www.igd.com/articles/article-viewer/t/hgv-driver-shortage-causes-consequences-and-potential-remedies-/i/28494
Previously Googling old threads and clicking on the link Google had would go to redirected hacked sites. The ones coming up on Google for old threads like this no longer seem to be getting redirected if that's what you mean: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/01/29/should-the-blues-be-worried-about-daves-ratings-collapse/
Can't believe they didn't make one for Dido...
The other one was that tweets with links to PB would be hacked and you'd get redirected to a casino site.
I'd just like someone - who isn't me - to check this.
Gosh, it’s not because of Brexit
“ IRU’s annual driver shortage survey has revealed that, despite reduced demand due to COVID-19, there is still an alarming shortage of drivers.
Surveying 800 road transport companies from over 20 countries, IRU found that driver shortage was most acute in Eurasia, where last year 20% of driver positions were not filled. China was the least affected country in 2020 with only 4% of jobs open.
Transport companies however forecast driver shortages to intensify again in 2021 as economies recover and demand for transport services increases. European companies are expecting a 17% shortfall in drivers this year. This shortfall is expected to reach 18% in Mexico, 20% in Turkey, 24% in Russia, and almost one third in Uzbekistan.
“Driver shortage threatens the functioning of road transport, supply chains, trade, the economy, and ultimately employment and citizens’ welfare. This is not an issue that can wait, action needs to be taken now,” said IRU Secretary General Umberto de Pretto. “
https://www.iru.org/resources/newsroom/new-iru-survey-shows-driver-shortages-soar-2021
TWANG
MORE BLOODY RAIN!!!!!!!
So 25,161 cases and 37 deaths reported today. The quick drop off (post Euros and schools closing) has clearly worked its way through and now we are possibly seeing the effects of the removal of restrictions (now three weeks ago). I don't think many thought we would be in this position three or four weeks ago.
What happens next? Scotland will be a useful indicator as there schools return shortly. I fear we have painted ourselves into a corner with testing. It is probably time to wind down mass testing, and use it mainly for diagnostic purposes, but I think the governments in the UK will find that hard to do ('hiding' data etc). As has been noted by many the key figures now are the hospitals and deaths number, cases matter a whole lot less, other than perhaps being an indicator of a problem coming. I struggle to see cases exploding, given that now little if no restrictions exist. I also think the amount of transmission and infection in the double vaccinated is being over stated - it is there of course, but it cannot be huge, otherwise the cases would be skyrocketing.
Winning a majority was the worst thing that could have happened to Cameron really, with hindsight - it was a nice little situation for him being able to say to the headbangers "I'd love to do whatever you want, but flippin' Clegg and Cable being awkward... so what can I do?"
I have the kind of brain that is affected by boredom the same way it is affected by booze. I start doing stupid things which amuse me (and often no one else)
Here’s a thought, you could write a book about it. You could start with an artisanal knapper such as yourself, but then talk about his dreams of leading a different life as a transitioning male model, an international thriller writer, a confidante of people on the greatest forum on the internet...
It might have legs.
Michael Holding's masterpiece might be the most important sports book you read
Why We Kneel, How We Rise by Michael Holding, published by Simon & Schuster, £20 hardback
https://www.racingpost.com/news/insight/michael-holdings-masterpiece-might-be-the-most-important-sports-book-you-read/504206
Three pointer!