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Starmer edging up in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 9 in General
imageStarmer edging up in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com

We are only a few weeks away from the party conference season and although the events have been truncated the big set pieces will be the speeches of Johnson and Starmer.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,182
    Afternoon all :)

    Primus inter pares.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    Is this the queue for HGV driver training?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 14,550

    Is this the queue for HGV driver training?

    No: to have a No 2 before setting off.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited August 9
    25,161 cases, 37 deaths

    More evidence cases are ticking up.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,185
    Lower placed than KJT in the SPoTY betting…

    On topic, lay the favourite. Probably lay the second favourite too.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,453
    When exactly did Starmer 'edge up'? He took a bit of a jump in early July, but nothing seems to have changed in the past few weeks.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 14,550
    stodge said:

    On a less serious note, especially given the IPCC report this morning, how should Starmer use the Labour party Conference of 2021?

    I still think he needs to definitively and metaphorically drive a stake through the beating heart of Corbynite policies - that may be a little overdramatic though would be good tv. Perhaps "de-Corbynisation" (to match today's mood) would be a better phrase.

    It's only 2021 - it should be all about generalities, there'll be time for specifics later. We need to have some sense of how a Labour Government led by Starmer would govern Britain. What will be its guiding principles, what will be its key objectives? In the light of today, can it out-green the Conservatives in terms of looking credible and serious on the environment?

    He certainly seemed to be trying to do that in Scotland on his recent visit. Though in that case I got the feeling he was trying to outgreen the Scottish Greens (a more difficult target than the Tories in some ways).
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    Can the psephologists out there tell us: is it not fairly standard that a leader of the Opposition needs a whacking great mid term lead to have the faintest hope of winning the subsequent GE?

    Even Howard had a lead at some point didn’t he?

    Starmer hasn’t even come close.
  • eekeek Posts: 14,808
    Sandpit said:

    Lower placed than KJT in the SPoTY betting…

    On topic, lay the favourite. Probably lay the second favourite too.

    And the third favourite - given that that is Michael Gove and really.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    You know when the Arts love to lecture everybody on how they are living their lives wrongly and aren't doing enough to stand up against whatever ism last came into their head....

    Johnny Depp to get lifetime achievement award from prominent film festival

    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2021/aug/09/johnny-depp-award-film-festival-san-sebastian-donostia-spain
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 4,614
    stodge said:

    On a less serious note, especially given the IPCC report this morning, how should Starmer use the Labour party Conference of 2021?

    I still think he needs to definitively and metaphorically drive a stake through the beating heart of Corbynite policies - that may be a little overdramatic though would be good tv. Perhaps "de-Corbynisation" (to match today's mood) would be a better phrase.

    It's only 2021 - it should be all about generalities, there'll be time for specifics later. We need to have some sense of how a Labour Government led by Starmer would govern Britain. What will be its guiding principles, what will be its key objectives? In the light of today, can it out-green the Conservatives in terms of looking credible and serious on the environment?

    In general I would suggest that he should concentrate on painting a picture of the ways in which he would love to make Britain better, and less on the ways in which he thinks the Tories are making Britain worse. More hope, less carping..
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    I hope no one minds but I am posting this from the last tread

    Some time ago there was an extremely controversial discussion re the RNLI rescuing migrants in the English Channel and I said I would contact my local MP, who is also a personal friend, about the issue. He promised to seek clarification from the Home Office, and he has sent their reply to me today.

    I promised I would publish the Home Office response on receipt and accordingly I note it below

    From The Home Office 4th August 2021

    Thank you for your letter of the 15th July to the Home Secretary on behalf of one of your constituents about the Nationality and Borders Bill and the role of the RNLI. I am replying as Minister for Immigration Compliance and Justice.

    The Nationality and Borders Bill targets ruthless criminal gangs who put lives at risk by smuggling people across the Channel. It does not change the Government’s approach to existing obligations under international maritime law, including the duty to protect lives at sea. Organizations such as HM Coastguard and RNLI, and individuals, will be able to continue to rescue those in distress at sea as they do now.

    The changes are not intended to punish humanitarian actions or to deter people from seeking help from the authorities where they are being exploited and abused. The Government recognises and welcomes the desire of individuals and community groups to help.

    We will fully address these issues in policy guidance to ensure that proper account is taken of the circumstances and motives of any individual offering aid and assistance to someone they know have entered the UK illegally; or to be remaining without permission, and that any punitive action is proportionate and in the public interest.

    We have a proud track record of helping those facing persecution, oppression and tyranny and we stand by our moral and legal obligations to help innocent people fleeing cruelty around the world. Since 2015, we have resettled almost 25,000 men, women and children seeking refuge from persecution across the world – more than any EU country. We have also welcomed more than 29,000 close relatives through refugee family reunion. In 2019, the UK received more asylum applications from unaccompanied asylum-seeking children than any country in the EU and we were second in 2020

    I hope this response has clarified our proposals. Thank you for sharing your constituent’s concerns on this important matter.

    END
  • isamisam Posts: 38,082
    edited August 9
    @TheScreamingEagles

    The whole point of my link to this article, that you thought I thought from 2021, was that it was from 2018. It proves that the fact we now have 100k shortages was expected, and nothing to do with Brexit.

    “ In a report released this week, European Road Freight Transport 2018, the supply chain analyst shows that in just six countries – the UK, Germany, France, Denmark Sweden and Norway – the shortage of drivers adds up to 127,500.

    The UK leads the way with a shortage of 52,000 drivers, but is closely followed by Germany at 45,000 vacancies – with predictions that this could increase by a staggering 28,000 each year.

    Tim Philips, director of Duma Consulting and former chief executive of Freightex, wrote, in a commentary in the report, that simply bringing in drivers from East Europe has, in turn, created a similar gap in the markets they left.

    “This is currently being partially filled by drivers from further afield, such as Ukraine. However this is not an inexhaustible supply and there are trucks parked up with no drivers,” he adds.“

    https://www.bifa.org/news/articles/2018/dec/truck-driver-shortage-crisis-now-spreading-across-the-whole-of-europe
  • eekeek Posts: 14,808

    You know when the Arts love to lecture everybody on how they are living their lives wrongly and aren't doing enough to stand up against whatever ism last came into their head....

    Johnny Depp to get lifetime achievement award from prominent film festival

    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2021/aug/09/johnny-depp-award-film-festival-san-sebastian-donostia-spain

    A festival will use it's awards to get publicity for it's festival / awards.

    And that award has definitely achieved it's aim of getting publicity for the festival.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    On a less serious note, especially given the IPCC report this morning, how should Starmer use the Labour party Conference of 2021?

    I still think he needs to definitively and metaphorically drive a stake through the beating heart of Corbynite policies - that may be a little overdramatic though would be good tv. Perhaps "de-Corbynisation" (to match today's mood) would be a better phrase.

    It's only 2021 - it should be all about generalities, there'll be time for specifics later. We need to have some sense of how a Labour Government led by Starmer would govern Britain. What will be its guiding principles, what will be its key objectives? In the light of today, can it out-green the Conservatives in terms of looking credible and serious on the environment?

    He certainly seemed to be trying to do that in Scotland on his recent visit. Though in that case I got the feeling he was trying to outgreen the Scottish Greens (a more difficult target than the Tories in some ways).
    And threatened 1,000 plus Scots jobs
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,185

    stodge said:

    On a less serious note, especially given the IPCC report this morning, how should Starmer use the Labour party Conference of 2021?

    I still think he needs to definitively and metaphorically drive a stake through the beating heart of Corbynite policies - that may be a little overdramatic though would be good tv. Perhaps "de-Corbynisation" (to match today's mood) would be a better phrase.

    It's only 2021 - it should be all about generalities, there'll be time for specifics later. We need to have some sense of how a Labour Government led by Starmer would govern Britain. What will be its guiding principles, what will be its key objectives? In the light of today, can it out-green the Conservatives in terms of looking credible and serious on the environment?

    In general I would suggest that he should concentrate on painting a picture of the ways in which he would love to make Britain better, and less on the ways in which he thinks the Tories are making Britain worse. More hope, less carping..
    Great point.

    Positivity, Cameron had it, so did Blair, the last two Opposition leaders to win power. Before my time, but Thatcher had it too.

    What’s 2023’s version of Things Can Only Get Better?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    On a less serious note, especially given the IPCC report this morning, how should Starmer use the Labour party Conference of 2021?

    I still think he needs to definitively and metaphorically drive a stake through the beating heart of Corbynite policies - that may be a little overdramatic though would be good tv. Perhaps "de-Corbynisation" (to match today's mood) would be a better phrase.

    It's only 2021 - it should be all about generalities, there'll be time for specifics later. We need to have some sense of how a Labour Government led by Starmer would govern Britain. What will be its guiding principles, what will be its key objectives? In the light of today, can it out-green the Conservatives in terms of looking credible and serious on the environment?

    He certainly seemed to be trying to do that in Scotland on his recent visit. Though in that case I got the feeling he was trying to outgreen the Scottish Greens (a more difficult target than the Tories in some ways).
    Can’t see the logic in Starmer opposing the new Shetland oil field. Even if the ICE was banned tomorrow, we’d still need plastics.

    He cannot out Tory the Tories on the constitution (eg Scottish independence).
    He cannot out Green the Greens on environmental issues.
    Would he not be wiser focussing on the concerns of ordinary working people, ie “labour”?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,413
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Lower placed than KJT in the SPoTY betting…

    On topic, lay the favourite. Probably lay the second favourite too.

    And the third favourite - given that that is Michael Gove and really.....
    The Tory Party being led by Boris then Gove would really be just trolling @ydoethur
  • FossFoss Posts: 422
    Is there any more news on a resolution the national Labour funding crisis? Right now that strikes me as the biggest near term threat that’s likely to topple to any of the uk party leaders.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,182
    So then to the big news of the day and perhaps I'm seeing some symbolism which doesn't exist but 76 years to the day after the last atomic bomb was dropped in anger on a city, we are facing another existential challenge.

    Looking back at the media in 1945, there was a real optimism about the power of "the atom" to improve people's lives and to rebuild a more prosperous world after the years of conflict.

    This challenge is different and more insidious.

    I've said on here many times and I stand by the notion human ingenuity, once released, is capable of almost anything both creative and destructive (the atomic bomb being a good example of the latter and perhaps the former as well).

    Technological solutions to and mitigation of the impacts of man-made climate change have and will emerge. The problem is we are incredibly sensitive to and affected by relatively minor changes in the climatic structure but at least we now recognise the impact changes in one area of the globe have on the rest of the planet.

    It's a huge and all-embracing subject and impacts every part of our lives.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,832
    isam said:

    The whole point of my post was that the article was from 2018. It proves that the fact we now have 100k shortages was expected, and nothing to do with Brexit.

    How many countries who didn't Brexit are contemplating using the Army to deliver food?

    Our current shortage is caused by Brexit.

    Only the zealots can't admit it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,244
    isam said:

    @TheScreamingEagles

    The whole point of my link to this article, that you thought I thought from 2021, was that it was from 2018. It proves that the fact we now have 100k shortages was expected, and nothing to do with Brexit.

    “ In a report released this week, European Road Freight Transport 2018, the supply chain analyst shows that in just six countries – the UK, Germany, France, Denmark Sweden and Norway – the shortage of drivers adds up to 127,500.

    The UK leads the way with a shortage of 52,000 drivers, but is closely followed by Germany at 45,000 vacancies – with predictions that this could increase by a staggering 28,000 each year.

    Tim Philips, director of Duma Consulting and former chief executive of Freightex, wrote, in a commentary in the report, that simply bringing in drivers from East Europe has, in turn, created a similar gap in the markets they left.

    “This is currently being partially filled by drivers from further afield, such as Ukraine. However this is not an inexhaustible supply and there are trucks parked up with no drivers,” he adds.“

    https://www.bifa.org/news/articles/2018/dec/truck-driver-shortage-crisis-now-spreading-across-the-whole-of-europe

    I have no idea what the reason is I suspect it is many and varied.

    But 2018 was after we voted to Brexit so if people had their wits about them then they would have been discounting the final form of Brexit for at least two years.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,082
    edited August 9

    Can the psephologists out there tell us: is it not fairly standard that a leader of the Opposition needs a whacking great mid term lead to have the faintest hope of winning the subsequent GE?

    Even Howard had a lead at some point didn’t he?

    Starmer hasn’t even come close.

    Yes, he’s like Ed Miliband, without the poll leads

    When it comes to the campaign, Boris will extend his lead/reduce the deficit if there is one, so Sir Keir’s party best have a 6-7 point lead by then
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    IshmaelZ said:

    I’m aware of vast, roaming herds of PB Tories, a few PB Labourites and Farage fans, some Lib Dems (although far fewer than at the start), a handful of SNP and an Alba, but I honestly cannot think of a single Green PBer. Is there one?

    (I think there was an N Ireland Green guy a while back?)

    I would be if they could concentrate on doing the stuff it says on the tin and not branch off into genderqueer toilets. I think we are also probably not on the same page on hunting issues.
    I consider myself to be Green-ish. Certainly strongly pro-conservation, protecting native species and habitats, instinctively sceptical of air travel and madder infrastructure/construction projects. I suppose you could call it “softer” Green issues. But I am pro-hunting. At least the Nordic type of hunting: for food and control of numbers of grazers. Strongly oppose grouse moors and fake hunts or cruel hunts, eg thickos riding horses after hounds.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,244
    Also, good to see that Brexit has given Vodafone the freedom to apply roaming charges to the plucky Brits venturing abroad to the EU from next year.
  • eekeek Posts: 14,808
    edited August 9
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Lower placed than KJT in the SPoTY betting…

    On topic, lay the favourite. Probably lay the second favourite too.

    And the third favourite - given that that is Michael Gove and really.....
    On a second glance of that list, you can lay the others as no-one who was health secretary has ever become PM.

    Which leaves the 17/1 shot Liz Truss as the only one left.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,956

    25,161 cases, 37 deaths

    More evidence cases are ticking up.

    The specimen date for the 7th is only a couple of thousand behind the fully completed 31st July data, and that's with 3 full days of completion too.
    We'll be hearing about cases falling on the news now for a bit though whilst the numbers are heading up. And by the time we're hearing about lower cases they'll be falling - with the even more lagged ONS data chucked in for good measure.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,446
    isam said:

    @TheScreamingEagles

    The whole point of my link to this article, that you thought I thought from 2021, was that it was from 2018. It proves that the fact we now have 100k shortages was expected, and nothing to do with Brexit.

    “ In a report released this week, European Road Freight Transport 2018, the supply chain analyst shows that in just six countries – the UK, Germany, France, Denmark Sweden and Norway – the shortage of drivers adds up to 127,500.

    The UK leads the way with a shortage of 52,000 drivers, but is closely followed by Germany at 45,000 vacancies – with predictions that this could increase by a staggering 28,000 each year.

    Tim Philips, director of Duma Consulting and former chief executive of Freightex, wrote, in a commentary in the report, that simply bringing in drivers from East Europe has, in turn, created a similar gap in the markets they left.

    “This is currently being partially filled by drivers from further afield, such as Ukraine. However this is not an inexhaustible supply and there are trucks parked up with no drivers,” he adds.“

    https://www.bifa.org/news/articles/2018/dec/truck-driver-shortage-crisis-now-spreading-across-the-whole-of-europe

    The ironic thing in the US is that the advent of Amazon's drone and driverless delivery was being bemoaned as an attack on the biggest single employment sector - truck driving - outside of Government (and Health?). Wonder if there is currently a shortage of drivers in the US too?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Lower placed than KJT in the SPoTY betting…

    On topic, lay the favourite. Probably lay the second favourite too.

    And the third favourite - given that that is Michael Gove and really.....
    The Tory Party being led by Boris then Gove would really be just trolling @ydoethur
    Do you suppose there would be a support package if I relocated to New Zealand?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,447
    Selebian said:

    When exactly did Starmer 'edge up'? He took a bit of a jump in early July, but nothing seems to have changed in the past few weeks.

    Stop it .... that's not going with the required narrative.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    Pulpstar said:

    25,161 cases, 37 deaths

    More evidence cases are ticking up.

    The specimen date for the 7th is only a couple of thousand behind the fully completed 31st July data, and that's with 3 full days of completion too.
    We'll be hearing about cases falling on the news now for a bit though whilst the numbers are heading up. And by the time we're hearing about lower cases they'll be falling - with the even more lagged ONS data chucked in for good measure.
    I think the question is, is 20-30k in low season now going to be the background level of COVID? It clearly isn't going to be down to really low level by the time the kids go back to school.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,446
    TimT said:

    isam said:

    @TheScreamingEagles

    The whole point of my link to this article, that you thought I thought from 2021, was that it was from 2018. It proves that the fact we now have 100k shortages was expected, and nothing to do with Brexit.

    “ In a report released this week, European Road Freight Transport 2018, the supply chain analyst shows that in just six countries – the UK, Germany, France, Denmark Sweden and Norway – the shortage of drivers adds up to 127,500.

    The UK leads the way with a shortage of 52,000 drivers, but is closely followed by Germany at 45,000 vacancies – with predictions that this could increase by a staggering 28,000 each year.

    Tim Philips, director of Duma Consulting and former chief executive of Freightex, wrote, in a commentary in the report, that simply bringing in drivers from East Europe has, in turn, created a similar gap in the markets they left.

    “This is currently being partially filled by drivers from further afield, such as Ukraine. However this is not an inexhaustible supply and there are trucks parked up with no drivers,” he adds.“

    https://www.bifa.org/news/articles/2018/dec/truck-driver-shortage-crisis-now-spreading-across-the-whole-of-europe

    The ironic thing in the US is that the advent of Amazon's drone and driverless delivery was being bemoaned as an attack on the biggest single employment sector - truck driving - outside of Government (and Health?). Wonder if there is currently a shortage of drivers in the US too?
    Yep, it's the same in the US:

    "The industry is experiencing a severe shortage, which is expected to grow even worse over the next decade. According to the latest data from the American Trucking Associations (ATA), the industry was short 60,800 drivers as of late 2018"

    https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/talent-acquisition/pages/how-trucking-companies-are-responding-to-a-critical-driver-shortage.aspx
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 8,569

    IshmaelZ said:

    I’m aware of vast, roaming herds of PB Tories, a few PB Labourites and Farage fans, some Lib Dems (although far fewer than at the start), a handful of SNP and an Alba, but I honestly cannot think of a single Green PBer. Is there one?

    (I think there was an N Ireland Green guy a while back?)

    I would be if they could concentrate on doing the stuff it says on the tin and not branch off into genderqueer toilets. I think we are also probably not on the same page on hunting issues.
    I consider myself to be Green-ish. Certainly strongly pro-conservation, protecting native species and habitats, instinctively sceptical of air travel and madder infrastructure/construction projects. I suppose you could call it “softer” Green issues. But I am pro-hunting. At least the Nordic type of hunting: for food and control of numbers of grazers. Strongly oppose grouse moors and fake hunts or cruel hunts, eg thickos riding horses after hounds.
    Ah. Close shave, but happily I am extremely intelligent.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Lower placed than KJT in the SPoTY betting…

    On topic, lay the favourite. Probably lay the second favourite too.

    And the third favourite - given that that is Michael Gove and really.....
    On a second glance of that list, you can lay the others as no-one who was health secretary has ever become PM.

    Which leaves the 17/1 shot Liz Truss as the only one left.

    To be exact, no Health Secretary since the war has ever become PM. Neville Chamberlain was Health Secretary twice.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    isam said:

    Can the psephologists out there tell us: is it not fairly standard that a leader of the Opposition needs a whacking great mid term lead to have the faintest hope of winning the subsequent GE?

    Even Howard had a lead at some point didn’t he?

    Starmer hasn’t even come close.

    Yes, he’s like Ed Miliband, without the poll leads

    When it comes to the campaign, Boris will extend his lead/reduce the deficit if there is one, so Sir Keir’s party best have a 6-7 point lead by then
    In retrospect, Miliband was great! That is, in comparison with Johnson, Starmer, Corbyn, May and Cameron.

    The only other leader of the Westminster duopoly who I also think more warmly of with the passing of time is John Major. Last decent Tory. Did bloody well in Scotland I seem to recall. Didn’t interfere too much in the affairs of the Scottish Office. Old school.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,956

    Pulpstar said:

    25,161 cases, 37 deaths

    More evidence cases are ticking up.

    The specimen date for the 7th is only a couple of thousand behind the fully completed 31st July data, and that's with 3 full days of completion too.
    We'll be hearing about cases falling on the news now for a bit though whilst the numbers are heading up. And by the time we're hearing about lower cases they'll be falling - with the even more lagged ONS data chucked in for good measure.
    I think the question is, is 20-30k in low season now going to be the background level of COVID? It clearly isn't going to be down to really low level by the time the kids go back to school.
    Ye, not sure why Prof Ferguson changed his mind so quickly on 100k cases a day. I think it's still well possible as we head into winter.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,984

    25,161 cases, 37 deaths

    More evidence cases are ticking up.

    The R is about 1.1 at the moment, maybe just below that which isn't really a huge deal in the context of there being no legal restrictions.

    In 8 weeks around 4m additional people will have entered the immunity funnel (by first vaccine or infection) it will take us up to near 80% immunity. The pandemic is over in the UK.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181
    stodge said:

    So then to the big news of the day and perhaps I'm seeing some symbolism which doesn't exist but 76 years to the day after the last atomic bomb was dropped in anger on a city, we are facing another existential challenge.

    You exaggerate. Things will be tough, but we will get through this. We have before.

    Oh, sorry, were you not talking about OGH’s holiday plans?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    Pulpstar said:

    25,161 cases, 37 deaths

    More evidence cases are ticking up.

    The specimen date for the 7th is only a couple of thousand behind the fully completed 31st July data, and that's with 3 full days of completion too.
    We'll be hearing about cases falling on the news now for a bit though whilst the numbers are heading up. And by the time we're hearing about lower cases they'll be falling - with the even more lagged ONS data chucked in for good measure.
    To be honest I do not really take much notice of the daily numbers though I would expect an uptick from freedom day

    I am sure if it becomes a real issue we will hear plenty from iSage who seem to be quite quiet at present
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 4,614

    Can the psephologists out there tell us: is it not fairly standard that a leader of the Opposition needs a whacking great mid term lead to have the faintest hope of winning the subsequent GE?

    Even Howard had a lead at some point didn’t he?

    Starmer hasn’t even come close.

    Yes. The simplest explanation is that this implies he doesn't have a chance, and the best he can do for Labour is a bit of a rebuilding job so that they (a) have better people to choose from in the next leadership contest, (b) are generally better organised, (c) have made some progress on fixing the problems with Labour's reputation among the electorate.

    However, it's not impossible that the Covid situation is unique, with a rally round the leader effect, and the public being more forgiving of government mistakes.

    If we soon return to normal, and if Starmer does have a chance, then you'd expect to see massive leads for Starmer at that point, sometime in 2022 I guess.
  • eekeek Posts: 14,808
    TimT said:

    isam said:

    @TheScreamingEagles

    The whole point of my link to this article, that you thought I thought from 2021, was that it was from 2018. It proves that the fact we now have 100k shortages was expected, and nothing to do with Brexit.

    “ In a report released this week, European Road Freight Transport 2018, the supply chain analyst shows that in just six countries – the UK, Germany, France, Denmark Sweden and Norway – the shortage of drivers adds up to 127,500.

    The UK leads the way with a shortage of 52,000 drivers, but is closely followed by Germany at 45,000 vacancies – with predictions that this could increase by a staggering 28,000 each year.

    Tim Philips, director of Duma Consulting and former chief executive of Freightex, wrote, in a commentary in the report, that simply bringing in drivers from East Europe has, in turn, created a similar gap in the markets they left.

    “This is currently being partially filled by drivers from further afield, such as Ukraine. However this is not an inexhaustible supply and there are trucks parked up with no drivers,” he adds.“

    https://www.bifa.org/news/articles/2018/dec/truck-driver-shortage-crisis-now-spreading-across-the-whole-of-europe

    The ironic thing in the US is that the advent of Amazon's drone and driverless delivery was being bemoaned as an attack on the biggest single employment sector - truck driving - outside of Government (and Health?). Wonder if there is currently a shortage of drivers in the US too?
    There always is from memory, long distance Lorry driving in the States is an interesting market that I've commented on here before https://www.amazon.co.uk/Secret-Life-Groceries-American-Supermarket-ebook/dp/B083RZFYZC has a very interesting chapter on it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,377

    isam said:

    Can the psephologists out there tell us: is it not fairly standard that a leader of the Opposition needs a whacking great mid term lead to have the faintest hope of winning the subsequent GE?

    Even Howard had a lead at some point didn’t he?

    Starmer hasn’t even come close.

    Yes, he’s like Ed Miliband, without the poll leads

    When it comes to the campaign, Boris will extend his lead/reduce the deficit if there is one, so Sir Keir’s party best have a 6-7 point lead by then
    In retrospect, Miliband was great! That is, in comparison with Johnson, Starmer, Corbyn, May and Cameron.

    The only other leader of the Westminster duopoly who I also think more warmly of with the passing of time is John Major. Last decent Tory. Did bloody well in Scotland I seem to recall. Didn’t interfere too much in the affairs of the Scottish Office. Old school.
    And he transformed Team GB's Olympic performance!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,423

    Pulpstar said:

    25,161 cases, 37 deaths

    More evidence cases are ticking up.

    The specimen date for the 7th is only a couple of thousand behind the fully completed 31st July data, and that's with 3 full days of completion too.
    We'll be hearing about cases falling on the news now for a bit though whilst the numbers are heading up. And by the time we're hearing about lower cases they'll be falling - with the even more lagged ONS data chucked in for good measure.
    I think the question is, is 20-30k in low season now going to be the background level of COVID? It clearly isn't going to be down to really low level by the time the kids go back to school.
    A little while ago someone on here compared the death rates per week over the past five years, and showed, IIRC, that the weekly death rate was now lower than normal. Several reason were advanced, especially those likely to die having already been picked off by The Plague, but I wonder how many of those now being reported as having died within whatever it is period of a positive test would in fact died anyway. If one has a severe heart attack within a few days of having a positive test, but otherwise being well is that due to pre-existing cardiac conditions, or shock at being told one might be going to develop Covid or Covid itself.
    I suggest it's at least approaching the time for some more nuanced figures.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,423
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Lower placed than KJT in the SPoTY betting…

    On topic, lay the favourite. Probably lay the second favourite too.

    And the third favourite - given that that is Michael Gove and really.....
    On a second glance of that list, you can lay the others as no-one who was health secretary has ever become PM.

    Which leaves the 17/1 shot Liz Truss as the only one left.

    To be exact, no Health Secretary since the war has ever become PM. Neville Chamberlain was Health Secretary twice.
    Is that a recommendation?
  • isamisam Posts: 38,082
    edited August 9
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    @TheScreamingEagles

    The whole point of my link to this article, that you thought I thought from 2021, was that it was from 2018. It proves that the fact we now have 100k shortages was expected, and nothing to do with Brexit.

    “ In a report released this week, European Road Freight Transport 2018, the supply chain analyst shows that in just six countries – the UK, Germany, France, Denmark Sweden and Norway – the shortage of drivers adds up to 127,500.

    The UK leads the way with a shortage of 52,000 drivers, but is closely followed by Germany at 45,000 vacancies – with predictions that this could increase by a staggering 28,000 each year.

    Tim Philips, director of Duma Consulting and former chief executive of Freightex, wrote, in a commentary in the report, that simply bringing in drivers from East Europe has, in turn, created a similar gap in the markets they left.

    “This is currently being partially filled by drivers from further afield, such as Ukraine. However this is not an inexhaustible supply and there are trucks parked up with no drivers,” he adds.“

    https://www.bifa.org/news/articles/2018/dec/truck-driver-shortage-crisis-now-spreading-across-the-whole-of-europe

    I have no idea what the reason is I suspect it is many and varied.

    But 2018 was after we voted to Brexit so if people had their wits about them then they would have been discounting the final form of Brexit for at least two years.
    The shortage of drivers was happening all over Europe, though - in EU member states, non EU member states, & those who were in the process of leaving.

    The most likely reason it’s bad now is the pingdemic in my opinion, something else to blame Boris for if people can fight the muscle memory of saying it’s down to Brexit
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,377
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Lower placed than KJT in the SPoTY betting…

    On topic, lay the favourite. Probably lay the second favourite too.

    And the third favourite - given that that is Michael Gove and really.....
    The Tory Party being led by Boris then Gove would really be just trolling @ydoethur
    Do you suppose there would be a support package if I relocated to New Zealand?

    How much do you think NZ would need? 😉
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,713
    I Think I may have solved the redirect hack. Could someone verify please?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Lower placed than KJT in the SPoTY betting…

    On topic, lay the favourite. Probably lay the second favourite too.

    And the third favourite - given that that is Michael Gove and really.....
    The Tory Party being led by Boris then Gove would really be just trolling @ydoethur
    Do you suppose there would be a support package if I relocated to New Zealand?

    How much do you think NZ would need? 😉
    Well, the sheer cost of internet for PB while I quarantined might outstrip their entire GNP...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,377
    rcs1000 said:

    I Think I may have solved the redirect hack. Could someone verify please?

    I can no longer see it listed in Vanilla, if that's what you meant?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Lower placed than KJT in the SPoTY betting…

    On topic, lay the favourite. Probably lay the second favourite too.

    And the third favourite - given that that is Michael Gove and really.....
    On a second glance of that list, you can lay the others as no-one who was health secretary has ever become PM.

    Which leaves the 17/1 shot Liz Truss as the only one left.

    To be exact, no Health Secretary since the war has ever become PM. Neville Chamberlain was Health Secretary twice.
    Is that a recommendation?
    The irony is, it was his tenure as Health Secretary from 1924-29 where he emerged as by far the most able and dynamic minister in the government that marked him out as a future PM.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,832
    isam said:

    The shortage of drivers was happening all over Europe, though - in EU member states, non EU member states, & those who were in the process of leaving.

    How many of them are planning to send in the Army?

    It's Brexit...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,956

    Pulpstar said:

    25,161 cases, 37 deaths

    More evidence cases are ticking up.

    The specimen date for the 7th is only a couple of thousand behind the fully completed 31st July data, and that's with 3 full days of completion too.
    We'll be hearing about cases falling on the news now for a bit though whilst the numbers are heading up. And by the time we're hearing about lower cases they'll be falling - with the even more lagged ONS data chucked in for good measure.
    To be honest I do not really take much notice of the daily numbers though I would expect an uptick from freedom day

    I am sure if it becomes a real issue we will hear plenty from iSage who seem to be quite quiet at present
    The recent peak of 47448 moving case average (60k peak reported) corresponded to 6,000 hospitalised. The winter peak was around 39,000 so an analogous wave now would involve a peak of around 400,000 cases per day or so. We have a good amount of headroom for a winter wave now.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,082

    isam said:

    Can the psephologists out there tell us: is it not fairly standard that a leader of the Opposition needs a whacking great mid term lead to have the faintest hope of winning the subsequent GE?

    Even Howard had a lead at some point didn’t he?

    Starmer hasn’t even come close.

    Yes, he’s like Ed Miliband, without the poll leads

    When it comes to the campaign, Boris will extend his lead/reduce the deficit if there is one, so Sir Keir’s party best have a 6-7 point lead by then
    In retrospect, Miliband was great! That is, in comparison with Johnson, Starmer, Corbyn, May and Cameron.

    The only other leader of the Westminster duopoly who I also think more warmly of with the passing of time is John Major. Last decent Tory. Did bloody well in Scotland I seem to recall. Didn’t interfere too much in the affairs of the Scottish Office. Old school.
    "Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband." David Cameron, 4th May 2015.

    Thank goodness Britain opted for stability and strong Government, otherwise the past six years would've been a total sh1t-show.
    Although had it been NOM, we would have the chaos of Cameron promising a referendum, the Lib Dem’s saying no, Ed saying Hell No, and UKIP demanding one.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,188

    isam said:

    Can the psephologists out there tell us: is it not fairly standard that a leader of the Opposition needs a whacking great mid term lead to have the faintest hope of winning the subsequent GE?

    Even Howard had a lead at some point didn’t he?

    Starmer hasn’t even come close.

    Yes, he’s like Ed Miliband, without the poll leads

    When it comes to the campaign, Boris will extend his lead/reduce the deficit if there is one, so Sir Keir’s party best have a 6-7 point lead by then
    In retrospect, Miliband was great! That is, in comparison with Johnson, Starmer, Corbyn, May and Cameron.

    The only other leader of the Westminster duopoly who I also think more warmly of with the passing of time is John Major. Last decent Tory. Did bloody well in Scotland I seem to recall. Didn’t interfere too much in the affairs of the Scottish Office. Old school.
    Scottish Labour were reduced to 1 seat under Miliband!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,377
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Lower placed than KJT in the SPoTY betting…

    On topic, lay the favourite. Probably lay the second favourite too.

    And the third favourite - given that that is Michael Gove and really.....
    On a second glance of that list, you can lay the others as no-one who was health secretary has ever become PM.

    Which leaves the 17/1 shot Liz Truss as the only one left.

    To be exact, no Health Secretary since the war has ever become PM. Neville Chamberlain was Health Secretary twice.
    Is that a recommendation?
    The irony is, it was his tenure as Health Secretary from 1924-29 where he emerged as by far the most able and dynamic minister in the government that marked him out as a future PM.
    What did a Health Secretary actually do in the 20s, with no NHS?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,071
    Pulpstar said:

    25,161 cases, 37 deaths

    More evidence cases are ticking up.

    The specimen date for the 7th is only a couple of thousand behind the fully completed 31st July data, and that's with 3 full days of completion too.
    We'll be hearing about cases falling on the news now for a bit though whilst the numbers are heading up. And by the time we're hearing about lower cases they'll be falling - with the even more lagged ONS data chucked in for good measure.
    It's absolutely infuriating at this point. People are really struggling with "fast, good, cheap" dilemma when it comes to Covid numbers, and not just in the media.

    The gold standard for deaths is the ONS death certificate analysis but that's slow and expensive - as a result it is only complete to the 9th of July.

    As you say the press has been going on about how cases are totally falling and R is sub 1 based on the ONS numbers (slow and very good) but even the Specimen Data graph is showing an uptick which means cases started rising at last week.

    *cough*Exactly as I predicted*cough*

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,071

    Pulpstar said:

    25,161 cases, 37 deaths

    More evidence cases are ticking up.

    The specimen date for the 7th is only a couple of thousand behind the fully completed 31st July data, and that's with 3 full days of completion too.
    We'll be hearing about cases falling on the news now for a bit though whilst the numbers are heading up. And by the time we're hearing about lower cases they'll be falling - with the even more lagged ONS data chucked in for good measure.
    I think the question is, is 20-30k in low season now going to be the background level of COVID? It clearly isn't going to be down to really low level by the time the kids go back to school.
    Back to school next week in Scotland!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,832
    The Chair of NHS Improvement Baroness Dido Harding - who is the former head of the Government's Test and Trace programme - will step down from her role in October

    For more on this and other news visit http://news.sky.com
  • isamisam Posts: 38,082
    edited August 9
    Scott_xP said:

    isam said:

    The shortage of drivers was happening all over Europe, though - in EU member states, non EU member states, & those who were in the process of leaving.

    How many of them are planning to send in the Army?

    It's Brexit...
    Brexit is a sub division of one of the fourteen reasons this report gives for the shortage, so you’re not entirely wrong

    “ The Road Haulage Association (RHA) recently published an open letter to the PM, in which they state that the UK has a shortfall of 100,000 HGV drivers. This is an increase on the RHA’s pre-COVID estimate of 60,000. Another organisation, Logistics UK, has issued a statement suggesting that the shortfall in numbers is 90,000 versus 76,000 before COVID and EU Exit.

    To compare, ONS data shows that about 313,000 people in the UK worked as HGV drivers in Q4 2019 (ie: before the outbreak of COVID-19), so the driver “pool” may be a quarter under-strength. In addition to driver shortages, IGD’s contacts also report difficulty filling associated roles such as forklift drivers, warehouse operatives and mechanics.”

    https://www.igd.com/articles/article-viewer/t/hgv-driver-shortage-causes-consequences-and-potential-remedies-/i/28494
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,413
    rcs1000 said:

    I Think I may have solved the redirect hack. Could someone verify please?

    Which one do you mean?

    Previously Googling old threads and clicking on the link Google had would go to redirected hacked sites. The ones coming up on Google for old threads like this no longer seem to be getting redirected if that's what you mean: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/01/29/should-the-blues-be-worried-about-daves-ratings-collapse/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,185
    TimT said:

    isam said:

    @TheScreamingEagles

    The whole point of my link to this article, that you thought I thought from 2021, was that it was from 2018. It proves that the fact we now have 100k shortages was expected, and nothing to do with Brexit.

    “ In a report released this week, European Road Freight Transport 2018, the supply chain analyst shows that in just six countries – the UK, Germany, France, Denmark Sweden and Norway – the shortage of drivers adds up to 127,500.

    The UK leads the way with a shortage of 52,000 drivers, but is closely followed by Germany at 45,000 vacancies – with predictions that this could increase by a staggering 28,000 each year.

    Tim Philips, director of Duma Consulting and former chief executive of Freightex, wrote, in a commentary in the report, that simply bringing in drivers from East Europe has, in turn, created a similar gap in the markets they left.

    “This is currently being partially filled by drivers from further afield, such as Ukraine. However this is not an inexhaustible supply and there are trucks parked up with no drivers,” he adds.“

    https://www.bifa.org/news/articles/2018/dec/truck-driver-shortage-crisis-now-spreading-across-the-whole-of-europe

    The ironic thing in the US is that the advent of Amazon's drone and driverless delivery was being bemoaned as an attack on the biggest single employment sector - truck driving - outside of Government (and Health?). Wonder if there is currently a shortage of drivers in the US too?
    The idea that you can use drones and street carts, to gain efficiencies in delivery, has always been for the birds. It was a mad idea that they agreed to throw some money at, without reference to the fact that humans can be really annoying sometimes - and in the States quite a lot of them have guns.
  • eekeek Posts: 14,808
    Scott_xP said:

    The Chair of NHS Improvement Baroness Dido Harding - who is the former head of the Government's Test and Trace programme - will step down from her role in October

    For more on this and other news visit http://news.sky.com

    NHS immeasurably improves on November 1st.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,423
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Can the psephologists out there tell us: is it not fairly standard that a leader of the Opposition needs a whacking great mid term lead to have the faintest hope of winning the subsequent GE?

    Even Howard had a lead at some point didn’t he?

    Starmer hasn’t even come close.

    Yes, he’s like Ed Miliband, without the poll leads

    When it comes to the campaign, Boris will extend his lead/reduce the deficit if there is one, so Sir Keir’s party best have a 6-7 point lead by then
    In retrospect, Miliband was great! That is, in comparison with Johnson, Starmer, Corbyn, May and Cameron.

    The only other leader of the Westminster duopoly who I also think more warmly of with the passing of time is John Major. Last decent Tory. Did bloody well in Scotland I seem to recall. Didn’t interfere too much in the affairs of the Scottish Office. Old school.
    "Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband." David Cameron, 4th May 2015.

    Thank goodness Britain opted for stability and strong Government, otherwise the past six years would've been a total sh1t-show.
    Although had it been NOM, we would have the chaos of Cameron promising a referendum, the Lib Dem’s saying no, Ed saying Hell No, and UKIP demanding one.
    Cameron won his majority by shafting the LD's.He actually lost seats to Labour, although only a net of 1. What upset Milliband's applecart was the losses to the SNP.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,832
    eek said:

    NHS immeasurably improves on November 1st.

    Barbie made a doll of Professor Sarah Gilbert.

    Can't believe they didn't make one for Dido...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,713

    rcs1000 said:

    I Think I may have solved the redirect hack. Could someone verify please?

    Which one do you mean?

    Previously Googling old threads and clicking on the link Google had would go to redirected hacked sites. The ones coming up on Google for old threads like this no longer seem to be getting redirected if that's what you mean: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/01/29/should-the-blues-be-worried-about-daves-ratings-collapse/
    That's good.

    The other one was that tweets with links to PB would be hacked and you'd get redirected to a casino site.

    I'd just like someone - who isn't me - to check this.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,082

    Gosh, it’s not because of Brexit

    “ IRU’s annual driver shortage survey has revealed that, despite reduced demand due to COVID-19, there is still an alarming shortage of drivers.

    Surveying 800 road transport companies from over 20 countries, IRU found that driver shortage was most acute in Eurasia, where last year 20% of driver positions were not filled. China was the least affected country in 2020 with only 4% of jobs open.

    Transport companies however forecast driver shortages to intensify again in 2021 as economies recover and demand for transport services increases. European companies are expecting a 17% shortfall in drivers this year. This shortfall is expected to reach 18% in Mexico, 20% in Turkey, 24% in Russia, and almost one third in Uzbekistan.

    “Driver shortage threatens the functioning of road transport, supply chains, trade, the economy, and ultimately employment and citizens’ welfare. This is not an issue that can wait, action needs to be taken now,” said IRU Secretary General Umberto de Pretto. “

    https://www.iru.org/resources/newsroom/new-iru-survey-shows-driver-shortages-soar-2021
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    Can the psephologists out there tell us: is it not fairly standard that a leader of the Opposition needs a whacking great mid term lead to have the faintest hope of winning the subsequent GE?

    Even Howard had a lead at some point didn’t he?

    Starmer hasn’t even come close.

    Yes, he’s like Ed Miliband, without the poll leads

    When it comes to the campaign, Boris will extend his lead/reduce the deficit if there is one, so Sir Keir’s party best have a 6-7 point lead by then
    In retrospect, Miliband was great! That is, in comparison with Johnson, Starmer, Corbyn, May and Cameron.

    The only other leader of the Westminster duopoly who I also think more warmly of with the passing of time is John Major. Last decent Tory. Did bloody well in Scotland I seem to recall. Didn’t interfere too much in the affairs of the Scottish Office. Old school.
    "Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband." David Cameron, 4th May 2015.

    Thank goodness Britain opted for stability and strong Government, otherwise the past six years would've been a total sh1t-show.
    Although had it been NOM, we would have the chaos of Cameron promising a referendum, the Lib Dem’s saying no, Ed saying Hell No, and UKIP demanding one.
    Cameron won his majority by shafting the LD's.He actually lost seats to Labour, although only a net of 1. What upset Milliband's applecart was the losses to the SNP.
    Even if Labour won every seat in Scotland in 2015 Dave would still have won a majority.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427
    woooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee blllrp! p'boot!!

    TWANG
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,454
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Can the psephologists out there tell us: is it not fairly standard that a leader of the Opposition needs a whacking great mid term lead to have the faintest hope of winning the subsequent GE?

    Even Howard had a lead at some point didn’t he?

    Starmer hasn’t even come close.

    Yes, he’s like Ed Miliband, without the poll leads

    When it comes to the campaign, Boris will extend his lead/reduce the deficit if there is one, so Sir Keir’s party best have a 6-7 point lead by then
    In retrospect, Miliband was great! That is, in comparison with Johnson, Starmer, Corbyn, May and Cameron.

    The only other leader of the Westminster duopoly who I also think more warmly of with the passing of time is John Major. Last decent Tory. Did bloody well in Scotland I seem to recall. Didn’t interfere too much in the affairs of the Scottish Office. Old school.
    "Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband." David Cameron, 4th May 2015.

    Thank goodness Britain opted for stability and strong Government, otherwise the past six years would've been a total sh1t-show.
    Although had it been NOM, we would have the chaos of Cameron promising a referendum, the Lib Dem’s saying no, Ed saying Hell No, and UKIP demanding one.
    OMG the NOM option sounds marvellous now looking back at it.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I Think I may have solved the redirect hack. Could someone verify please?

    Which one do you mean?

    Previously Googling old threads and clicking on the link Google had would go to redirected hacked sites. The ones coming up on Google for old threads like this no longer seem to be getting redirected if that's what you mean: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/01/29/should-the-blues-be-worried-about-daves-ratings-collapse/
    That's good.

    The other one was that tweets with links to PB would be hacked and you'd get redirected to a casino site.

    I'd just like someone - who isn't me - to check this.
    I've checked both on Chrome and on twitter and it works, as confirmed some people on twitter.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Lower placed than KJT in the SPoTY betting…

    On topic, lay the favourite. Probably lay the second favourite too.

    And the third favourite - given that that is Michael Gove and really.....
    On a second glance of that list, you can lay the others as no-one who was health secretary has ever become PM.

    Which leaves the 17/1 shot Liz Truss as the only one left.

    To be exact, no Health Secretary since the war has ever become PM. Neville Chamberlain was Health Secretary twice.
    Is that a recommendation?
    The irony is, it was his tenure as Health Secretary from 1924-29 where he emerged as by far the most able and dynamic minister in the government that marked him out as a future PM.
    What did a Health Secretary actually do in the 20s, with no NHS?
    An awful lot, including quite a lot that would now come under local government, plus most decisions on housing and work and pensions that would now be handled by other departments. But there was ‘a’ national health service, just not ‘the’ National Health Service, run through local health panels. Much of Chamberlain’s work was in extending and improving this provision.
  • Keir Starmer is doing a much better job these last few weeks, those approval ratings are looking better, especially now he is leading Johnson with IPSOS
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,423

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Can the psephologists out there tell us: is it not fairly standard that a leader of the Opposition needs a whacking great mid term lead to have the faintest hope of winning the subsequent GE?

    Even Howard had a lead at some point didn’t he?

    Starmer hasn’t even come close.

    Yes, he’s like Ed Miliband, without the poll leads

    When it comes to the campaign, Boris will extend his lead/reduce the deficit if there is one, so Sir Keir’s party best have a 6-7 point lead by then
    In retrospect, Miliband was great! That is, in comparison with Johnson, Starmer, Corbyn, May and Cameron.

    The only other leader of the Westminster duopoly who I also think more warmly of with the passing of time is John Major. Last decent Tory. Did bloody well in Scotland I seem to recall. Didn’t interfere too much in the affairs of the Scottish Office. Old school.
    "Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband." David Cameron, 4th May 2015.

    Thank goodness Britain opted for stability and strong Government, otherwise the past six years would've been a total sh1t-show.
    Although had it been NOM, we would have the chaos of Cameron promising a referendum, the Lib Dem’s saying no, Ed saying Hell No, and UKIP demanding one.
    Cameron won his majority by shafting the LD's.He actually lost seats to Labour, although only a net of 1. What upset Milliband's applecart was the losses to the SNP.
    Even if Labour won every seat in Scotland in 2015 Dave would still have won a majority.
    Because of gains from the LD's, as I said.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,453
    Scott_xP said:


    For more on this and other news visit http://news.sky.com

    Have you changed employer? :wink:

  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,741

    I hope no one minds but I am posting this from the last tread

    Some time ago there was an extremely controversial discussion re the RNLI rescuing migrants in the English Channel and I said I would contact my local MP, who is also a personal friend, about the issue. He promised to seek clarification from the Home Office, and he has sent their reply to me today.

    I promised I would publish the Home Office response on receipt and accordingly I note it below

    From The Home Office 4th August 2021

    Thank you for your letter of the 15th July to the Home Secretary on behalf of one of your constituents about the Nationality and Borders Bill and the role of the RNLI. I am replying as Minister for Immigration Compliance and Justice.

    The Nationality and Borders Bill targets ruthless criminal gangs who put lives at risk by smuggling people across the Channel. It does not change the Government’s approach to existing obligations under international maritime law, including the duty to protect lives at sea. Organizations such as HM Coastguard and RNLI, and individuals, will be able to continue to rescue those in distress at sea as they do now.

    The changes are not intended to punish humanitarian actions or to deter people from seeking help from the authorities where they are being exploited and abused. The Government recognises and welcomes the desire of individuals and community groups to help.

    We will fully address these issues in policy guidance to ensure that proper account is taken of the circumstances and motives of any individual offering aid and assistance to someone they know have entered the UK illegally; or to be remaining without permission, and that any punitive action is proportionate and in the public interest.

    We have a proud track record of helping those facing persecution, oppression and tyranny and we stand by our moral and legal obligations to help innocent people fleeing cruelty around the world. Since 2015, we have resettled almost 25,000 men, women and children seeking refuge from persecution across the world – more than any EU country. We have also welcomed more than 29,000 close relatives through refugee family reunion. In 2019, the UK received more asylum applications from unaccompanied asylum-seeking children than any country in the EU and we were second in 2020

    I hope this response has clarified our proposals. Thank you for sharing your constituent’s concerns on this important matter.

    END

    The Home Office under Patel has form. If she believes this bullshit she should stop briefing the media.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,413
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I Think I may have solved the redirect hack. Could someone verify please?

    Which one do you mean?

    Previously Googling old threads and clicking on the link Google had would go to redirected hacked sites. The ones coming up on Google for old threads like this no longer seem to be getting redirected if that's what you mean: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/01/29/should-the-blues-be-worried-about-daves-ratings-collapse/
    That's good.

    The other one was that tweets with links to PB would be hacked and you'd get redirected to a casino site.

    I'd just like someone - who isn't me - to check this.
    That's possibly the same thing, it was a casino style site that was being redirected with the old links.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427
    edited August 9
    So it turns out you can't draw a todger on PB
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427
    My apols to the mods for even trying. Yes I am bored

    MORE BLOODY RAIN!!!!!!!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,833
    FPT
    So 25,161 cases and 37 deaths reported today. The quick drop off (post Euros and schools closing) has clearly worked its way through and now we are possibly seeing the effects of the removal of restrictions (now three weeks ago). I don't think many thought we would be in this position three or four weeks ago.
    What happens next? Scotland will be a useful indicator as there schools return shortly. I fear we have painted ourselves into a corner with testing. It is probably time to wind down mass testing, and use it mainly for diagnostic purposes, but I think the governments in the UK will find that hard to do ('hiding' data etc). As has been noted by many the key figures now are the hospitals and deaths number, cases matter a whole lot less, other than perhaps being an indicator of a problem coming. I struggle to see cases exploding, given that now little if no restrictions exist. I also think the amount of transmission and infection in the double vaccinated is being over stated - it is there of course, but it cannot be huge, otherwise the cases would be skyrocketing.
  • How can you be so drunk so early
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,454

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Can the psephologists out there tell us: is it not fairly standard that a leader of the Opposition needs a whacking great mid term lead to have the faintest hope of winning the subsequent GE?

    Even Howard had a lead at some point didn’t he?

    Starmer hasn’t even come close.

    Yes, he’s like Ed Miliband, without the poll leads

    When it comes to the campaign, Boris will extend his lead/reduce the deficit if there is one, so Sir Keir’s party best have a 6-7 point lead by then
    In retrospect, Miliband was great! That is, in comparison with Johnson, Starmer, Corbyn, May and Cameron.

    The only other leader of the Westminster duopoly who I also think more warmly of with the passing of time is John Major. Last decent Tory. Did bloody well in Scotland I seem to recall. Didn’t interfere too much in the affairs of the Scottish Office. Old school.
    "Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband." David Cameron, 4th May 2015.

    Thank goodness Britain opted for stability and strong Government, otherwise the past six years would've been a total sh1t-show.
    Although had it been NOM, we would have the chaos of Cameron promising a referendum, the Lib Dem’s saying no, Ed saying Hell No, and UKIP demanding one.
    Cameron won his majority by shafting the LD's.He actually lost seats to Labour, although only a net of 1. What upset Milliband's applecart was the losses to the SNP.
    Even if Labour won every seat in Scotland in 2015 Dave would still have won a majority.
    Because of gains from the LD's, as I said.
    so much for the honour of the Tory Party.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,369
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    25,161 cases, 37 deaths

    More evidence cases are ticking up.

    The specimen date for the 7th is only a couple of thousand behind the fully completed 31st July data, and that's with 3 full days of completion too.
    We'll be hearing about cases falling on the news now for a bit though whilst the numbers are heading up. And by the time we're hearing about lower cases they'll be falling - with the even more lagged ONS data chucked in for good measure.
    It's absolutely infuriating at this point. People are really struggling with "fast, good, cheap" dilemma when it comes to Covid numbers, and not just in the media.

    The gold standard for deaths is the ONS death certificate analysis but that's slow and expensive - as a result it is only complete to the 9th of July.

    As you say the press has been going on about how cases are totally falling and R is sub 1 based on the ONS numbers (slow and very good) but even the Specimen Data graph is showing an uptick which means cases started rising at last week.

    *cough*Exactly as I predicted*cough*

    I wouldn't trust the ONS numbers in absolute terms, because I think the kind of people who volunteer for a study like that are very unlikely to be representative of the population as a whole. But for comparisons between different times, different regions and different age groups they should be good.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181
    Leon said:

    My apols to the mods for even trying. Yes I am bored

    MORE BLOODY RAIN!!!!!!!

    Has Moses been up to his tricks again?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 3,171
    edited August 9
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Can the psephologists out there tell us: is it not fairly standard that a leader of the Opposition needs a whacking great mid term lead to have the faintest hope of winning the subsequent GE?

    Even Howard had a lead at some point didn’t he?

    Starmer hasn’t even come close.

    Yes, he’s like Ed Miliband, without the poll leads

    When it comes to the campaign, Boris will extend his lead/reduce the deficit if there is one, so Sir Keir’s party best have a 6-7 point lead by then
    In retrospect, Miliband was great! That is, in comparison with Johnson, Starmer, Corbyn, May and Cameron.

    The only other leader of the Westminster duopoly who I also think more warmly of with the passing of time is John Major. Last decent Tory. Did bloody well in Scotland I seem to recall. Didn’t interfere too much in the affairs of the Scottish Office. Old school.
    "Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband." David Cameron, 4th May 2015.

    Thank goodness Britain opted for stability and strong Government, otherwise the past six years would've been a total sh1t-show.
    Although had it been NOM, we would have the chaos of Cameron promising a referendum, the Lib Dem’s saying no, Ed saying Hell No, and UKIP demanding one.
    I'm not sure that's "chaos" - indeed, I suspect it was Cameron's plan. Commit to a referendum in the manifesto for the benefit of the right, sacrifice it in coalition discussions.

    Winning a majority was the worst thing that could have happened to Cameron really, with hindsight - it was a nice little situation for him being able to say to the headbangers "I'd love to do whatever you want, but flippin' Clegg and Cable being awkward... so what can I do?"
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,454
    Leon said:

    woooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee blllrp! p'boot!!

    TWANG

    Leon, are you feeling ok?....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427

    How can you be so drunk so early

    If you are referring to me - I'm taking a mad guess here - then I can assure you I am utterly sober, but also monumentally bored.

    I have the kind of brain that is affected by boredom the same way it is affected by booze. I start doing stupid things which amuse me (and often no one else)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,597

    How can you be so drunk so early

    Is this question directed to all of us?
  • Leon said:

    How can you be so drunk so early

    If you are referring to me - I'm taking a mad guess here - then I can assure you I am utterly sober, but also monumentally bored.

    I have the kind of brain that is affected by boredom the same way it is affected by booze. I start doing stupid things which amuse me (and often no one else)
    Do you not have a job?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427

    Leon said:

    How can you be so drunk so early

    If you are referring to me - I'm taking a mad guess here - then I can assure you I am utterly sober, but also monumentally bored.

    I have the kind of brain that is affected by boredom the same way it is affected by booze. I start doing stupid things which amuse me (and often no one else)
    Do you not have a job?
    hahahahahahahaha
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,185
    Leon said:

    How can you be so drunk so early

    If you are referring to me - I'm taking a mad guess here - then I can assure you I am utterly sober, but also monumentally bored.

    I have the kind of brain that is affected by boredom the same way it is affected by booze. I start doing stupid things which amuse me (and often no one else)
    Those flints won’t knap themselves you know!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,695
    Cases by specimen date

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,695
    England PCR positivity

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181
    edited August 9
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    How can you be so drunk so early

    If you are referring to me - I'm taking a mad guess here - then I can assure you I am utterly sober, but also monumentally bored.

    I have the kind of brain that is affected by boredom the same way it is affected by booze. I start doing stupid things which amuse me (and often no one else)
    Do you not have a job?
    hahahahahahahaha
    Even knapping flint dildos loses its appeal after a time?

    Here’s a thought, you could write a book about it. You could start with an artisanal knapper such as yourself, but then talk about his dreams of leading a different life as a transitioning male model, an international thriller writer, a confidante of people on the greatest forum on the internet...

    It might have legs.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,198
    OT the Racing Post raves about Michael Holding's book.

    Michael Holding's masterpiece might be the most important sports book you read
    Why We Kneel, How We Rise by Michael Holding, published by Simon & Schuster, £20 hardback

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/insight/michael-holdings-masterpiece-might-be-the-most-important-sports-book-you-read/504206
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,695
    Local R

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,695
    UK cases summary

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,695
    UK hospitals

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This discussion has been closed.