BREAKING: The British Medical Association is calling for a delay to the easing of all remaining lockdown restrictions in England due to case numbers ‘rising rapidly’.
They were also against the 12 week vaccination strategy.
Mood music is definitely against reopening properly. For Boris's calculation will it be more or less popular to hold off now? Sadly I think it will be more popular.
Might be more popular amongst pensioners and the wfh types in leafy surrey. Will definitely not be popular amongst business owners and the young by which i mean anyone under 30 to 35
This from Labour:
Nick Thomas-Symonds, the shadow home secretary, said delaying the easing of lockdown would be a huge blow for families and businesses, and said ministers were at fault.
He said: “Despite warnings from Labour, Sage and others they continued with a reckless border policy that allowed the Delta variant to reach the UK and spread. Now the British people look set to have to pay the price.”
Now, if Starmer were to stop wibbling on about trans self-identification and hammer on about this, and nothing but this, for the next solid month then he might finally make a dent in the Government's seemingly impregnable polling position. You would hope so. Johnson and the rest of his bloody idiots deserve to pay a price for this. But I bet they won't.
Christopher Snowdon @cjsnowdon · 3h Maybe letting 20,000 people in from India without enforcing self-isolation at a time when we couldn't see our own families wasn't such a good idea after all.
The Government deserves to be strung up by the unmentionables. If the Opposition can't make political capital out of this disaster, then so do they.
Remember the public are highly risk averse so a delay may actually be popular
They deserve death.
EDIT: I've just had it with this. I'm absolutely done. Sick of suffering for the sake of other people's fear. Fuck em. Fuck em all.
I'm with you mate. Honestly if Boris Johnson got hit by the Presidential motorcade the country would be better off. He's completely incapable of making any decisions. We need strong leadership at this point to see if the scientists and theirzero COVID permanent lockdown agenda. Boris isn't that person.
As a matter of interest do you think Starmer, Sturgeon or Drakeford would be any different
Rishi wouldn't be so easily led by the scientists. I really don't give a toss what happens in Scotland and Wales, that's up to the Welsh and Scottish respectively to deal with.
Your defence of Boris is just laughable. All he can see is tomorrow's poll.
You forget, I support Rishi but to dismiss Scotland and Wales when we are so integrated with England and especially Wales is irrational
For anyone who remembers the Homeworld 1981 exhibition about houses of the future, in Milton Keynes - it is interesting to go back to Coleshill Place in Milton Keynes to see how it has got on.
36 homes built by a varied selection of developers.
Case numbers are rising, hospital admissions are rising, and all that the government is worried about is when to ease restrictions, thereby accelerating the rate of growth. Instead, they should be taking action now to get R below 1, such as taking us back a step and closing the pubs and eateries again.
It's a legal requirement and I think the law should be obeyed - we don't get to pick and choose what laws we obey or if we do we accept a sanction that comes if we are caught.
Clipped for brevity
See here is where I part company with you. I think laws should be flagrantly disobeyed when they are bad laws. Often we are in a position where there is no viable party to get a law changed and the only way it gets dropped is via mass civil disobedience. Yes I may get punished but frankly I don't care what johnson says from the 21st I regard no lockdown laws to be worth obeying and I expect to break them flagrantly and frequently
olitics For All @PoliticsForAlI Police cars revolving light | NEW: June 21 is OFF - SAGE has warned the Government that a third wave of Covid cases could exceed the first wave peak
Hospitalisations do and in your neck of the woods they are not looking too clever
Oh really? 🤔
There was over 4k in hospital in the Northwest in the peak, there's currently 271.
There were hundreds in hospital in Warrington in the peak, there's currently 3. Not 300, 3. Liverpool University Hospitals had over 500 in the peak, there's currently 9. Wirral University Teaching Hospital had nearly 300 in the peak, there's currently 3.
Single digits in hospital Trusts when it was hundreds in hospital most of the pandemic is not awful.
We’re not at the peak of this wave. That’s the point.
Lilico, one of the more sober analysts, reckons there will be 125K cases a week by then. But only 6K hospitalisations.
Enough to justify throwing the economy and livelihoods under the bus even more?
Absolutely farcical.
The virus is burning out the low-hanging fruit left now which aren't especially vulnerable. It will burn out the pockets where there isn't immunity then run out of people to infect and die off due to herd immunity.
The vulnerable aren't at risk, the NHS isn't at risk. The economy is. Livelihoods are. Lives are from that.
Remember from here on in, whatever you think about what went before, all the suffering that we're going to have to go through is absolutely, 100%, the fault of the Prime Minister and the Conservative Party. All of it.
I mean, some of us will also blame the scientists in our more despairing moments, but ultimately they don't wield the executive power. The Government does.
The endless punishments. Distancing, masks, restrictions, petty bureaucratic bullying, for years. The business failures. The total despair that it will never end. And it may indeed never, ever end. All Boris Johnson. All his fault.
At what point does Sunak turn around and say 'I'm sorry boss, I can't print any more money for this.'???
There’s a fantastic little company I know called Vimian. It made Eur45m last year In EBITDA.
It’s worth a lot. It sure as fuck isn’t worth Eur3bn.
fpt about SKS being doomed because he is a remainer.
Not to say he isn't and I've no idea after the bollocks that the EU indulged in over the vaccines/Ireland, etc what the overall public view is, but do we expect every politician to fall in behind the policies of the winner of the election they've just lost?
Should Lab win in 2024 (don't laugh) will the Cons adopt all the Lab policies because the public has spoken?
Not just because he was a Remainer, but because he actively tried to overturn the referendum result when he was Labour’s Brexit Sec. Politicians who campaigned for Remain but accepted the result and voted to enable Brexit rather than refusing to have it are a different kettle of fish
If he campaigned to do that presumably that was because he believed there was a constituency which was receptive to that. Not a large enough one, it turned out, but as a political strategy it is perfectly rational, if unsuccessful to date.
Yeah he can do what he likes, but I think him doing so is a big reason he’s polling the same as Corbyn personally, and his party worse than Jez’s worst election/losing safe Labour seats in by elections
If it's his Remainerdom that's the problem how come his polling used to be quite good?
Well almost half the country did vote Remain so he was entitled to get an easy ride at the start in polls. But in the Red Wall Leave seats he is doomed. And at 65% of constituencies voted Leave, he is double doomed
Then, add in the fact he is dull as ditchwater, and it’s triple doomage!
It's the Remain point that doesn't make sense. He was polling well generally as recently as 6 months ago. Have Leavers suddenly noticed that he used to be an arch Remainer? I know they're not the most astute of units but, no, this seems unlikely.
It does make sense, because he was doomed even when he was polling better than he is now, due to 65% of constituencies voting leave, and him being the arch Remainer responsible for the ‘people’s vote’ and the loss of the Red Wall.
In a nutshell, I doubt it was Leave voters responsible for his previously good polling
He was polling quite well generally. Across all the main divides and metrics.
Was he? I didn’t know that. I will obviously check and confirm/dispute
In his first Opinium poll he scored
51-4 with Remainers 22-13 with Leavers
Latest Opinium
36-35 with Remainers 17-53 with Leavers
Losing popularity pretty evenly really
Yep. Therefore the problem is not that he's a Remainer. There's no change there. He was. He is.
The slump is due to other stuff. Pandemic. Vaccines. Being dull compared to the MMM. Not opposing enough. Whatever.
This is my point.
Oh yes, I agree - the SLUMP is due to other stuff. My point was that he was doomed with Leavers from the off
But that's not what the data says. His composite ratings 6 months ago were good enough to contend. He doesn't need to win the Leave demos for that. He just needs to be not in the toilet with them. Which he is now. But he wasn't. And that delta is not explained by him being a high profile Remainer. This is my precise and only point.
Where is the data that says he was ever popular with Leavers? He has taken Labour backwards in Hartlepool, why would that be?
Wouldn't Labour be better off with a leader that wasn't written off at first sight by Leave voters, given they aren't going to campaign to rejoin?
He wasn't popular with Leavers but he was popular enough with them - or rather not sufficiently unpopular - to be right in the game for potential PM. This was the position 6 months ago. Since then he's cratered. Not with any particular group but with all groups. It's an across the board slump and it's taken him (as we speak) out of the game. That he's a Ref2 Remainer does not, cannot, explain this because there's been no change there. He was a Ref2 Remainer 6 months ago. He's a Ref2 Remainer now.
Conclusion?
Your frequent assertion that his Remainerdom is a major factor in his very low, out-of-the-game ratings does not stack up. It's not the case. It's fallen off its perch. It's an ex assertion.
That’s just garbage.
Rough numbers
50% voters are leavers - SKS had 22% support with them = 11% of the voters
50% are remainders - SKS had 51% support =26%
Total support of 37% is solid and competitive.
Now he has 17% with leavers (=8%) and 36% (=18%) of remainders.
Total support down to 26% - also ran.
The fact that he is an arch-remainer means he gets limited leaver support. So he needs a supermajority of remainers to win. But they’ve realised his a bit shit so he support among them has declined
To put it in perspective, if he had as much support among leavers as remainers he’d be on 36% overall - highly competitive
BREAKING: The British Medical Association is calling for a delay to the easing of all remaining lockdown restrictions in England due to case numbers ‘rising rapidly’.
They were also against the 12 week vaccination strategy.
Mood music is definitely against reopening properly. For Boris's calculation will it be more or less popular to hold off now? Sadly I think it will be more popular.
Might be more popular amongst pensioners and the wfh types in leafy surrey. Will definitely not be popular amongst business owners and the young by which i mean anyone under 30 to 35
This from Labour:
Nick Thomas-Symonds, the shadow home secretary, said delaying the easing of lockdown would be a huge blow for families and businesses, and said ministers were at fault.
He said: “Despite warnings from Labour, Sage and others they continued with a reckless border policy that allowed the Delta variant to reach the UK and spread. Now the British people look set to have to pay the price.”
Now, if Starmer were to stop wibbling on about trans self-identification and hammer on about this, and nothing but this, for the next solid month then he might finally make a dent in the Government's seemingly impregnable polling position. You would hope so. Johnson and the rest of his bloody idiots deserve to pay a price for this. But I bet they won't.
Christopher Snowdon @cjsnowdon · 3h Maybe letting 20,000 people in from India without enforcing self-isolation at a time when we couldn't see our own families wasn't such a good idea after all.
It was necessary to keep unfettered travel to and from India for Johnson to seal a world beating trade deal with Modi.
It wasn't about a trade deal it was the meeting.
Look at how much fun Boris is having pow-wowing in Cornwall.
Boris doesn't like detailed negotiations but he loves the events and vacuous pronouncements that these international meetings are filled with.
None of this matters. Folk will bitch and moan and keep putting the X in the Tory box. Because trans people or statues or some such.
No, they will keep voting Tory because there is no credible alternative. We desperately need the Labour Party to die and a new actual opposition appear to the right of the current Tories. The UK now has three centre left parties and nothing else. This is neither wise or sustainable.
fpt about SKS being doomed because he is a remainer.
Not to say he isn't and I've no idea after the bollocks that the EU indulged in over the vaccines/Ireland, etc what the overall public view is, but do we expect every politician to fall in behind the policies of the winner of the election they've just lost?
Should Lab win in 2024 (don't laugh) will the Cons adopt all the Lab policies because the public has spoken?
Not just because he was a Remainer, but because he actively tried to overturn the referendum result when he was Labour’s Brexit Sec. Politicians who campaigned for Remain but accepted the result and voted to enable Brexit rather than refusing to have it are a different kettle of fish
If he campaigned to do that presumably that was because he believed there was a constituency which was receptive to that. Not a large enough one, it turned out, but as a political strategy it is perfectly rational, if unsuccessful to date.
Yeah he can do what he likes, but I think him doing so is a big reason he’s polling the same as Corbyn personally, and his party worse than Jez’s worst election/losing safe Labour seats in by elections
If it's his Remainerdom that's the problem how come his polling used to be quite good?
Well almost half the country did vote Remain so he was entitled to get an easy ride at the start in polls. But in the Red Wall Leave seats he is doomed. And at 65% of constituencies voted Leave, he is double doomed
Then, add in the fact he is dull as ditchwater, and it’s triple doomage!
It's the Remain point that doesn't make sense. He was polling well generally as recently as 6 months ago. Have Leavers suddenly noticed that he used to be an arch Remainer? I know they're not the most astute of units but, no, this seems unlikely.
It does make sense, because he was doomed even when he was polling better than he is now, due to 65% of constituencies voting leave, and him being the arch Remainer responsible for the ‘people’s vote’ and the loss of the Red Wall.
In a nutshell, I doubt it was Leave voters responsible for his previously good polling
He was polling quite well generally. Across all the main divides and metrics.
Was he? I didn’t know that. I will obviously check and confirm/dispute
In his first Opinium poll he scored
51-4 with Remainers 22-13 with Leavers
Latest Opinium
36-35 with Remainers 17-53 with Leavers
Losing popularity pretty evenly really
Yep. Therefore the problem is not that he's a Remainer. There's no change there. He was. He is.
The slump is due to other stuff. Pandemic. Vaccines. Being dull compared to the MMM. Not opposing enough. Whatever.
This is my point.
Oh yes, I agree - the SLUMP is due to other stuff. My point was that he was doomed with Leavers from the off
But that's not what the data says. His composite ratings 6 months ago were good enough to contend. He doesn't need to win the Leave demos for that. He just needs to be not in the toilet with them. Which he is now. But he wasn't. And that delta is not explained by him being a high profile Remainer. This is my precise and only point.
Where is the data that says he was ever popular with Leavers? He has taken Labour backwards in Hartlepool, why would that be?
Wouldn't Labour be better off with a leader that wasn't written off at first sight by Leave voters, given they aren't going to campaign to rejoin?
He wasn't popular with Leavers but he was popular enough with them - or rather not sufficiently unpopular - to be right in the game for potential PM. This was the position 6 months ago. Since then he's cratered. Not with any particular group but with all groups. It's an across the board slump and it's taken him (as we speak) out of the game. That he's a Ref2 Remainer does not, cannot, explain this because there's been no change there. He was a Ref2 Remainer 6 months ago. He's a Ref2 Remainer now.
Conclusion?
Your frequent assertion that his Remainerdom is a major factor in his very low, out-of-the-game ratings does not stack up. It's not the case. It's fallen off its perch. It's an ex assertion.
That’s just garbage.
Rough numbers
50% voters are leavers - SKS had 22% support with them = 11% of the voters
50% are remainders - SKS had 51% support =26%
Total support of 37% is solid and competitive.
Now he has 17% with leavers (=8%) and 36% (=18%) of remainders.
Total support down to 26% - also ran.
The fact that he is an arch-remainer means he gets limited leaver support. So he needs a supermajority of remainers to win. But they’ve realised his a bit shit so he support among them has declined
To put it in perspective, if he had as much support among leavers as remainers he’d be on 36% overall - highly competitive
Logic fail, Charles. We'll go through it when we next meet.
Comments
For anyone who remembers the Homeworld 1981 exhibition about houses of the future, in Milton Keynes - it is interesting to go back to Coleshill Place in Milton Keynes to see how it has got on.
36 homes built by a varied selection of developers.
Here on Google:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Bradwell+Common,+Milton+Keynes/@52.047297,-0.7734721,111m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x48770073f58d2fc5:0xfb61386b5fb2c14!8m2!3d52.0448117!4d-0.7707599
The programmes about the Money Programme house:
https://vimeo.com/454408400
There's a current documentary here, but you'll want to scan through bits of it.
But an interesting conversation about WFH, and also timber frame house structure built in one day, and others.
https://vimeo.com/540791219
See here is where I part company with you. I think laws should be flagrantly disobeyed when they are bad laws. Often we are in a position where there is no viable party to get a law changed and the only way it gets dropped is via mass civil disobedience. Yes I may get punished but frankly I don't care what johnson says from the 21st I regard no lockdown laws to be worth obeying and I expect to break them flagrantly and frequently
It’s worth a lot. It sure as fuck isn’t worth Eur3bn.
#assetpriceinflation
Rough numbers
50% voters are leavers - SKS had 22% support with them = 11% of the voters
50% are remainders - SKS had 51% support =26%
Total support of 37% is solid and competitive.
Now he has 17% with leavers (=8%) and 36% (=18%) of remainders.
Total support down to 26% - also ran.
The fact that he is an arch-remainer means he gets limited leaver support. So he needs a supermajority of remainers to win. But they’ve realised his a bit shit so he support among them has declined
To put it in perspective, if he had as much support among leavers as remainers he’d be on 36% overall - highly competitive
Look at how much fun Boris is having pow-wowing in Cornwall.
Boris doesn't like detailed negotiations but he loves the events and vacuous pronouncements that these international meetings are filled with.