Folk have been trained for 15 months to follow case numbers. First item on the news most days. You can't just expect them to ignore them now. Most haven't seen malmesburys's graphs or read Max's expertise on vaccines. If cases don't matter now, then it is the job of the government to be bellowing that from the rooftops. Because, as long as they don't, then cases really do matter.
Yes, it's beyond ridiculous. People still don't grasp what breaking the link means – we are completely obsessed with positive tests regardless of whether people are actually sick!
It's a rough back of the envelope calculation, but:-
We've gone from 2,193 cases to 8,125 from 14th May to date. That's an increase of 270%.
We've gone from 103 admissions on 10th May to 173 on 7th June. That's an increase of 72%.
And, we've gone from 973 hospitalisations on 10th May to 1058 on 8th June. That's an increase of 9%. However, hospitalisations fell until 26th May, at 892. The increase from 26th May to 9th June is therefore 19%. Assuming that this reflects cases that arose between 16th and 30th May, case numbers over that period rose from 1,926 to 3,240, or 68%. So, it does look as though hospitalisations are rising at a far slower rate than case numbers, suggesting that the vaccination programme has been very successful.
If Germans have a reputation abroad for lecturing others, within Germany that stereotype is often applied to members of the bar, charitably referred to as Besserwisser (know-it-alls), less charitably as Klugscheisser (shitters of wisdom)
OK. I'll toss them a bone. Next sentence:
That said, the lawyers often are right, which is why court decisions are accepted as sacrosanct.
Maybe. He's certainly in a hole. But I don't see the point of trying to agitate him out right now. He has to be given a year or so to see if he can get some traction.
He's had a year. That went well.
Be fun to see what he can do with another.
Maybe he should be given two elections, like Corbyn.
Sure. But it's been a year like no other. I think any Labour leader would have struggled. The Cons have a structural majority courtesy of Brexit and on top of that you have public gratitude/familiarity courtesy of the pandemic/vaccines. The big question is will this persist. My sense is things will start to turn soon. It's not the strongest sense I've ever had though. Maybe "hope" would be a better word for it.
Being a year like no other didn't hurt Biden.
I guess the great British public have decided Boris is more like New Zealand's Ardern in leading us through the pandemic well.
They're not wrong.
What are your mates down under saying about it all. The friend I spoke to (in Brisbane) is super frustrated at the vaccine rollout. Like a huge prison is how he described it.
Mixed bag. I grew up in Melbourne and that's probably had more of a lockdown hokey-cokey than anywhere else.
Some people are happy with how its gone and want to keep the lockdown going, others are getting very pissed off with the whole thing. A bit like here I suppose!
63 hospitalisations from 32k cases of Delta. That's a rate of just 0.2% so far, we would normally expect around 5% of cases to present severe enough symptoms to result in hospitalisation. There's also no word on how many of these cases were precautionary and how many resulted in more than one night in hospital.
Given how the variant data lags and needs tracing back to specific people with follow ups I would be surprised if that 0.2% hospitalisation rate gets any higher, in fact I'd expect it to go down as cumulative factors start coming into play with more people getting their first and second doses.
Look at it this way, where we'd previously have expected 1000 people to be hospitalised, we're now only seeing 38, in addition other reports from the NHs chiefs have said that case severity is serverely down and far fewer people turning up hospital are requiring any significant interventions and are being sent home on the same day.
We're genuinely in the clear and there is simply no reason to delay June 21st. There is no conceivable route to an NHS crash and that is the reason for having any NPIs. Boris needs to tell all of the scientists to get back in their corner.
I think June 21st should go ahead. Lift all legal restrictions and counsel (guidance only) caution based on personal risk assessment.
But -
The argument that because lockdown was imposed to stop the NHS crashing it follows simply from this that every single restriction should go now because the NHS will NOT crash - this argument I do not find to be a slam dunk.
The fact is we're not talking about a single event to go from 'lock' to 'unlock'. Lockdown has already to a significant extent been reversed. What's left are the final steps of a gradual process.
Ok, so the NHS won't fall over whatever we do because of the vaccines. That's great. But what if an explosion in cases led to sufficient stress on the service (in places) to significantly hamper the efforts to start tackling the big backlog they have? People would suffer. Maybe a lot of people. And long Covid. Ditto. And of course the people who would still die of Covid.
So I don't think it's a total no-brainer.
I'll repeat what I said earlier. We've introduced extraordinary legal restrictions because we faced a genuine national emergency. Thanks to the vaccines the emergency is over. So the legal restrictions go.
Otherwise we will always be having extraordinary legal restrictions being imposed in response to norovirus, or normal winter influenza.
We need to change our thinking. We need a clear lead that the vaccines have ended the emergency.
fpt about SKS being doomed because he is a remainer.
Not to say he isn't and I've no idea after the bollocks that the EU indulged in over the vaccines/Ireland, etc what the overall public view is, but do we expect every politician to fall in behind the policies of the winner of the election they've just lost?
Should Lab win in 2024 (don't laugh) will the Cons adopt all the Lab policies because the public has spoken?
Not just because he was a Remainer, but because he actively tried to overturn the referendum result when he was Labour’s Brexit Sec. Politicians who campaigned for Remain but accepted the result and voted to enable Brexit rather than refusing to have it are a different kettle of fish
If he campaigned to do that presumably that was because he believed there was a constituency which was receptive to that. Not a large enough one, it turned out, but as a political strategy it is perfectly rational, if unsuccessful to date.
Yeah he can do what he likes, but I think him doing so is a big reason he’s polling the same as Corbyn personally, and his party worse than Jez’s worst election/losing safe Labour seats in by elections
If it's his Remainerdom that's the problem how come his polling used to be quite good?
Well almost half the country did vote Remain so he was entitled to get an easy ride at the start in polls. But in the Red Wall Leave seats he is doomed. And at 65% of constituencies voted Leave, he is double doomed
Then, add in the fact he is dull as ditchwater, and it’s triple doomage!
It's the Remain point that doesn't make sense. He was polling well generally as recently as 6 months ago. Have Leavers suddenly noticed that he used to be an arch Remainer? I know they're not the most astute of units but, no, this seems unlikely.
It does make sense, because he was doomed even when he was polling better than he is now, due to 65% of constituencies voting leave, and him being the arch Remainer responsible for the ‘people’s vote’ and the loss of the Red Wall.
In a nutshell, I doubt it was Leave voters responsible for his previously good polling
He was polling quite well generally. Across all the main divides and metrics.
Was he? I didn’t know that. I will obviously check and confirm/dispute
In his first Opinium poll he scored
51-4 with Remainers 22-13 with Leavers
Latest Opinium
36-35 with Remainers 17-53 with Leavers
Losing popularity pretty evenly really
You are so obsessed with Brexit. Move on
Wishing it away isn’t going to stop it being a massive deal for a long while yet. So, sorry, I won’t leave it, you’ll have to put up with or ignore my posts about it
OK, I'll just keep talking the piss. You carry on sounding like Nigel Farage's cod piece. Sorry, mouth piece (aka Putin's useful idiots). I think the real reason is that even the genuinely committed footsoldiers of the Brexit-con like yourself genuinely have doubts as to whether it was as pointless as it was, so you think you have to keep convincing yourselves. There there.
OK, so the NHS won't fall over whatever we do because of the vaccines. That's great. But what if an explosion in cases led to sufficient stress on the service (in places) to significantly hamper the efforts to start tackling the big backlog they have? People would suffer. Maybe a lot of people. And long Covid. Ditto. And of course the people who would still die of Covid.
So I don't think it's a total no-brainer.
1. We are reaching the point where, come June 21st, virtually all the over 50s will have been double-vaxxed and are therefore going to have as much protection as they're going to have from the virus. The risk is therefore disproportionately borne by the young (who are at very low risk of illness, and probably more likely to be harmed by the economic fallout of this disaster,) and the anti-vaxxers. I'll be a little more diplomatic than Max about the latter, but we really shouldn't shed too many tears if they get ill.
Thus, nearly everyone who dies of Covid from hereon in is going to die of Covid at some point anyway - either because they won't (or, in a tiny number of very sad cases, can't) accept the help offered by the vaccines, or the vaccines haven't worked very well for them. These people cannot be saved by dither. They can only be granted a brief stay of execution, at huge cost to everybody else.
2. You can't justify locking people up to give the NHS time to clear its backlog. If we do that then we'll all stay locked up for five to ten years.
3. That only leaves the Long Covid problem. So, the calculation is: do we keep restrictions to minimise Long Covid cases, even if that means they stay for most of the rest of the year whilst the vaccination programme works its way down through young adults AND older children? Or do we say that the other non-Covid harms caused by dragging this thing out for months longer now outweigh those caused by Long Covid?
It won't surprise you to hear that I think we should just go ahead and open up, but if you take the contrary view then consider: what happens if restrictions are kept in place for months for this reason, and then other perfectly plausible sounding reasons are found to keep them going once practically everyone over the age of about eight has been vaccinated twice? Because they will be.
Yes cases wrent rising like this last year until Late September. By October we were in tiers
Cases aren't resulting in significant hospitalisations for vaccinated people. Groups 1-9 are all fully vaccinated. They account for well over 95% of previous hospitalisations. If people who choose not to take the vaccine die or end up in hospital then they've made that choice and can fuck off and die.
Charming.
Ah Kinabalu, supporter of the downtrodden, unprivileged, err, anti-vaxxer.
Honestly, anyone who refuses the vaccine is a complete and utter c***. The only thing that can cure them of their stupidity is death by COVID like so many of those idiotic people who denied it's existence.
Yes but c'mon. People are imperfect and complicated. There'll be those who are eg not the brightest, or otherwise susceptible to scare stories, or pressure from others, or distrust of authority, or with other health concerns, or whatever, there's loads of possible reasons why somebody might end up not doing what is (I agree) their moral duty of getting vaxxed. It's a bad decision, a sort of a crime even, if we want to use that language, but it's not a capital offence. Them dying would still be a tragedy. Even Lozza.
No doubt it'll be a tour of Camel Valley vineyard tomorrow followed by dinner at Rick Stein's then a leisurely walk around the Lost Gardens of Heligan on Sunday.
Silliness aside, a dinner at the Eden Project is a rather clever choice - dramatic setting, weather proof and yet feels like the open air.
Yes, I've not been to an event there but I remember having dinner at the Singapore botanic gardens and I expect the effect was similar.
Morning. Do we have "in hospital" Covid numbers for today yet?
Yes, a small increase. We also have the new data point of just 63 hospitalisations from 32k delta cases in fully vaccinated people. I calculate that as an efficacy rate of at least 96%, probably closer to 98-99% when case age profile is taken into account.
Small decrease you mean - 884 down from 906 yesterday
People travelling to Guernsey from the UK who have not had two doses of a Covid-19 vaccine must be tested and self-isolate from 1 July.
The move applies to people coming from the Common Travel Area which includes the UK, Jersey, Isle of Man and Republic of Ireland.
The start of a traffic light system has been delayed following the spread of the Delta variant in the UK.
It means the current 4-tier system of categories remains in place.
But those coming from the Common Travel Area who have had their second dose more than two weeks before arriving will be able to avoid the testing and self-isolation.
Letters will start going out in July confirming an individual's vaccination status - ongoing they will be issued two weeks after they've received the second jab
Well we're going on holiday to Jersey in August and no doubt they'll follow suit. I wonder what that means for double vaccinated parents with unvaxxed children and teenagers.
No doubt it'll be a tour of Camel Valley vineyard tomorrow followed by dinner at Rick Stein's then a leisurely walk around the Lost Gardens of Heligan on Sunday.
Morning. Do we have "in hospital" Covid numbers for today yet?
Answering my own questions: yes we do. In England it's 884 down from 906 yesterday, but up from 805 a week ago. So it's currently trending at about a 10% weekly rise.
Which I would suggest is not sufficiently alarming to prevent the relaxation of restrictions.
HOWEVER, the government really should move to a mixed dosing regime and get those 6.1m unused AZ doses into peoples' arms. Allow walk ins for the AZ jab - the suppression of transmission benefits to having an additional 5m people with at least one jab are absolutely enormous.
The virus will simply run out of unvaccinated people to hospitalise at some point very soon. This is the exit wave, Israel had it too as the virus finds those unvaccinated people.
Unfortunately there are a large number of young people and children who are unvaccinated. Not all of them will get mild symptoms.
Maybe. He's certainly in a hole. But I don't see the point of trying to agitate him out right now. He has to be given a year or so to see if he can get some traction.
He's had a year. That went well.
Be fun to see what he can do with another.
Maybe he should be given two elections, like Corbyn.
Sure. But it's been a year like no other. I think any Labour leader would have struggled. The Cons have a structural majority courtesy of Brexit and on top of that you have public gratitude/familiarity courtesy of the pandemic/vaccines. The big question is will this persist. My sense is things will start to turn soon. It's not the strongest sense I've ever had though. Maybe "hope" would be a better word for it.
Being a year like no other didn't hurt Biden.
I guess the great British public have decided Boris is more like New Zealand's Ardern in leading us through the pandemic well.
They're not wrong.
What are your mates down under saying about it all. The friend I spoke to (in Brisbane) is super frustrated at the vaccine rollout. Like a huge prison is how he described it.
Mixed bag. I grew up in Melbourne and that's probably had more of a lockdown hokey-cokey than anywhere else.
Some people are happy with how its gone and want to keep the lockdown going, others are getting very pissed off with the whole thing. A bit like here I suppose!
Lockdown is incarceration. Taking the ability to be social away from a human is taking the ability to live their life away from them. And it is probably making us unfit and ill as a nation. We will more likely remember the businesses lost than lives saved.
But politics is what politics is, they can’t gamble with their poll ratings as on top of it by allowing 3rd wave to make a mess.
No doubt it'll be a tour of Camel Valley vineyard tomorrow followed by dinner at Rick Stein's then a leisurely walk around the Lost Gardens of Heligan on Sunday.
Silliness aside, a dinner at the Eden Project is a rather clever choice - dramatic setting, weather proof and yet feels like the open air.
Yes, I've not been to an event there but I remember having dinner at the Singapore botanic gardens and I expect the effect was similar.
Well, they both been used as movies sets, for their dramatic effect...
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.
Maybe. He's certainly in a hole. But I don't see the point of trying to agitate him out right now. He has to be given a year or so to see if he can get some traction.
He's had a year. That went well.
Be fun to see what he can do with another.
Maybe he should be given two elections, like Corbyn.
Sure. But it's been a year like no other. I think any Labour leader would have struggled. The Cons have a structural majority courtesy of Brexit and on top of that you have public gratitude/familiarity courtesy of the pandemic/vaccines. The big question is will this persist. My sense is things will start to turn soon. It's not the strongest sense I've ever had though. Maybe "hope" would be a better word for it.
Being a year like no other didn't hurt Biden.
I guess the great British public have decided Boris is more like New Zealand's Ardern in leading us through the pandemic well.
They're not wrong.
What are your mates down under saying about it all. The friend I spoke to (in Brisbane) is super frustrated at the vaccine rollout. Like a huge prison is how he described it.
Mixed bag. I grew up in Melbourne and that's probably had more of a lockdown hokey-cokey than anywhere else.
Some people are happy with how its gone and want to keep the lockdown going, others are getting very pissed off with the whole thing. A bit like here I suppose!
Morning. Do we have "in hospital" Covid numbers for today yet?
Yes, a small increase. We also have the new data point of just 63 hospitalisations from 32k delta cases in fully vaccinated people. I calculate that as an efficacy rate of at least 96%, probably closer to 98-99% when case age profile is taken into account.
I don't think its tenable to argue that numbers don't matter among the unvaccinated. We do need to minimise the impact of any exit wave.
Morning. Do we have "in hospital" Covid numbers for today yet?
Answering my own questions: yes we do. In England it's 884 down from 906 yesterday, but up from 805 a week ago. So it's currently trending at about a 10% weekly rise.
Which I would suggest is not sufficiently alarming to prevent the relaxation of restrictions.
HOWEVER, the government really should move to a mixed dosing regime and get those 6.1m unused AZ doses into peoples' arms. Allow walk ins for the AZ jab - the suppression of transmission benefits to having an additional 5m people with at least one jab are absolutely enormous.
The virus will simply run out of unvaccinated people to hospitalise at some point very soon. This is the exit wave, Israel had it too as the virus finds those unvaccinated people.
Unfortunately there are a large number of young people and children who are unvaccinated. Not all of them will get mild symptoms.
Children aren't even in the plan, we'll be waiting forever if we wait for them !
Maybe. He's certainly in a hole. But I don't see the point of trying to agitate him out right now. He has to be given a year or so to see if he can get some traction.
He's had a year. That went well.
Be fun to see what he can do with another.
Maybe he should be given two elections, like Corbyn.
Sure. But it's been a year like no other. I think any Labour leader would have struggled. The Cons have a structural majority courtesy of Brexit and on top of that you have public gratitude/familiarity courtesy of the pandemic/vaccines. The big question is will this persist. My sense is things will start to turn soon. It's not the strongest sense I've ever had though. Maybe "hope" would be a better word for it.
Being a year like no other didn't hurt Biden.
I guess the great British public have decided Boris is more like New Zealand's Ardern in leading us through the pandemic well.
They're not wrong.
What are your mates down under saying about it all. The friend I spoke to (in Brisbane) is super frustrated at the vaccine rollout. Like a huge prison is how he described it.
Mixed bag. I grew up in Melbourne and that's probably had more of a lockdown hokey-cokey than anywhere else.
Some people are happy with how its gone and want to keep the lockdown going, others are getting very pissed off with the whole thing. A bit like here I suppose!
Lockdown is incarceration. Taking the ability to be social away from a human is taking the ability to live their life away from them. And it is probably making us unfit and ill as a nation. We will more likely remember the businesses lost than lives saved.
But politics is what politics is, they can’t gamble with their poll ratings as on top of it by allowing 3rd wave to make a mess.
People are being social via zoom teams facetime WhatsApp etc. Not the same of course as touch but it's being social.nevertheless
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.
Yeah. Me too. I wonder if it might be 2 or 3 weeks rather than 4.
fpt about SKS being doomed because he is a remainer.
Not to say he isn't and I've no idea after the bollocks that the EU indulged in over the vaccines/Ireland, etc what the overall public view is, but do we expect every politician to fall in behind the policies of the winner of the election they've just lost?
Should Lab win in 2024 (don't laugh) will the Cons adopt all the Lab policies because the public has spoken?
Not just because he was a Remainer, but because he actively tried to overturn the referendum result when he was Labour’s Brexit Sec. Politicians who campaigned for Remain but accepted the result and voted to enable Brexit rather than refusing to have it are a different kettle of fish
If he campaigned to do that presumably that was because he believed there was a constituency which was receptive to that. Not a large enough one, it turned out, but as a political strategy it is perfectly rational, if unsuccessful to date.
Yeah he can do what he likes, but I think him doing so is a big reason he’s polling the same as Corbyn personally, and his party worse than Jez’s worst election/losing safe Labour seats in by elections
If it's his Remainerdom that's the problem how come his polling used to be quite good?
Well almost half the country did vote Remain so he was entitled to get an easy ride at the start in polls. But in the Red Wall Leave seats he is doomed. And at 65% of constituencies voted Leave, he is double doomed
Then, add in the fact he is dull as ditchwater, and it’s triple doomage!
It's the Remain point that doesn't make sense. He was polling well generally as recently as 6 months ago. Have Leavers suddenly noticed that he used to be an arch Remainer? I know they're not the most astute of units but, no, this seems unlikely.
It does make sense, because he was doomed even when he was polling better than he is now, due to 65% of constituencies voting leave, and him being the arch Remainer responsible for the ‘people’s vote’ and the loss of the Red Wall.
In a nutshell, I doubt it was Leave voters responsible for his previously good polling
He was polling quite well generally. Across all the main divides and metrics.
Was he? I didn’t know that. I will obviously check and confirm/dispute
In his first Opinium poll he scored
51-4 with Remainers 22-13 with Leavers
Latest Opinium
36-35 with Remainers 17-53 with Leavers
Losing popularity pretty evenly really
You are so obsessed with Brexit. Move on
Wishing it away isn’t going to stop it being a massive deal for a long while yet. So, sorry, I won’t leave it, you’ll have to put up with or ignore my posts about it
OK, I'll just keep talking the piss. You carry on sounding like Nigel Farage's cod piece. Sorry, mouth piece (aka Putin's useful idiots). I think the real reason is that even the genuinely committed footsoldiers of the Brexit-con like yourself genuinely have doubts as to whether it was as pointless as it was, so you think you have to keep convincing yourselves. There there.
I think you need the practice, so carry on at your convenience 👍🏻
The optics with this exit wave are interesting. If we'd locked down less heavily in January then more people would have caught Covid, been hospitalised and died and the rate of decline in cases would have been slower. We might never have got below about 5-6,000 per day. But now the impact of Delta would be much less visible, plus there would be greater levels of population immunity. So everyone would probably be feeling better about Covid than they are now despite the overall result being worse. And we would be unlocking on schedule on the 21st.
fpt about SKS being doomed because he is a remainer.
Not to say he isn't and I've no idea after the bollocks that the EU indulged in over the vaccines/Ireland, etc what the overall public view is, but do we expect every politician to fall in behind the policies of the winner of the election they've just lost?
Should Lab win in 2024 (don't laugh) will the Cons adopt all the Lab policies because the public has spoken?
Not just because he was a Remainer, but because he actively tried to overturn the referendum result when he was Labour’s Brexit Sec. Politicians who campaigned for Remain but accepted the result and voted to enable Brexit rather than refusing to have it are a different kettle of fish
If he campaigned to do that presumably that was because he believed there was a constituency which was receptive to that. Not a large enough one, it turned out, but as a political strategy it is perfectly rational, if unsuccessful to date.
Yeah he can do what he likes, but I think him doing so is a big reason he’s polling the same as Corbyn personally, and his party worse than Jez’s worst election/losing safe Labour seats in by elections
If it's his Remainerdom that's the problem how come his polling used to be quite good?
Well almost half the country did vote Remain so he was entitled to get an easy ride at the start in polls. But in the Red Wall Leave seats he is doomed. And at 65% of constituencies voted Leave, he is double doomed
Then, add in the fact he is dull as ditchwater, and it’s triple doomage!
It's the Remain point that doesn't make sense. He was polling well generally as recently as 6 months ago. Have Leavers suddenly noticed that he used to be an arch Remainer? I know they're not the most astute of units but, no, this seems unlikely.
It does make sense, because he was doomed even when he was polling better than he is now, due to 65% of constituencies voting leave, and him being the arch Remainer responsible for the ‘people’s vote’ and the loss of the Red Wall.
In a nutshell, I doubt it was Leave voters responsible for his previously good polling
He was polling quite well generally. Across all the main divides and metrics.
Was he? I didn’t know that. I will obviously check and confirm/dispute
In his first Opinium poll he scored
51-4 with Remainers 22-13 with Leavers
Latest Opinium
36-35 with Remainers 17-53 with Leavers
Losing popularity pretty evenly really
Yep. Therefore the problem is not that he's a Remainer. There's no change there. He was. He is.
The slump is due to other stuff. Pandemic. Vaccines. Being dull compared to the MMM. Not opposing enough. Whatever.
NEW: Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.
Sounds about right. I suspect we will soon get some clarification from the Great Leader like this:
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
Four more weeks seems to be the consensus.
I would be surprised if nothing changed. I would think still best guess is that most restrictions will go for private enterprises but public measures will stay (masks on tube, hospitals, govt buildings, etc).
But that I realise is coming to be a hugely optimistic scenario.
We all said hospitalisations not cases and here we (and the BMA) are on cases.
This is the UK we're in right now. Very disappointing.
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.
'Further review...??''
''Further review'' is a recipe for total chaos. Widespread civil disobedience, riots, mass bankruptcies pub/theatre/cinema etc closures.
I don't think you realise how stretched many businesses are. Even the ones that are open.
NEW: Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.
That would be shocking imo. Essentially open ended restrictions. Would you be happy with that?
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
I expect a mixed bag. Lifting restrictions on weddings, christenings and other large life events (which would be good for hospitality too as @Cyclefree has been saying) but keeping nightclubs closed for a few more weeks, potentially until just before the schools break up.
Not sure what they'll do about sport. The football season is over and major events are things like the Euros were commitments have already been made and the Cricket etc, so maybe lift restrictions on that too since they've already committed to most of it, and it allows more to be said as having been lifted.
Make sense to lift restrictions on theatres too - after all they'll be most visited by vaccinated people anyway! Its nightclubs that are mostly visited by the unvaccinated.
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
Four more weeks seems to be the consensus.
I would be surprised if nothing changed. I would think still best guess is that most restrictions will go for private enterprises but public measures will stay (masks on tube, hospitals, govt buildings, etc).
But that I realise is coming to be a hugely optimistic scenario.
We all said hospitalisations not cases and here we (and the BMA) are on cases.
This is the UK we're in right now. Very disappointing.
Four more weeks to what?
A commitment to a definite re-opening?
Or a 'further review, as pubman says.
Because the uncertainty of a further review is going to surely drive many businesses to the wall. Others, operating at a loss, will have to decide whether it is worth it.
Some may decide to open anyway, like Lloyd Webber.
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
Johnson is a political animal. He will be more terrified of going to stage 4 and doing a sudden u turn then standing pat. The U turn would likely massively damage him politically, standing pat wont
NEW: Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros
Yes, he just wants Bertolt Brecht style a different electorate to enable his victory.
This is why the lower vaccination uptake in certain areas of the country matters. The govt could sell not removing restrictions or even imposing them as to protect the unvaccinated
People will fucking riot if the government say that the country will continue to live under restrictions because people have refused the vaccine. It's a non-starter.
MikeL thinks most people are happy with the restrictions. So why would they riot
Well this is the nightmare scenario, isn't it? The Government discovers that a critical mass of the electorate actually enjoys being bossed about and made to wear masks, so we all have to keep doing it forever.
No, people don't enjoy being bossed about.
The trouble with posters on here is everybody is desperate to take the most extreme position at both ends of the spectrum.
What most people in the real world actually think is that the restrictions aren't very onerous and they are worth having to mitigate the risk in case things spiral out of control again.
And that it would be sensible to wait until a few more people are vaccinated. I would have thought most would think say 65% to 70% fully vaccinated would sound about right whereas today we are only at 55% (and then it's two weeks to take effect).
Moderate, pragmatic, reasonable.
Whereas on here we've got people who seriously think the reason for the restrictions is because it gives a few people in power a kick that they think they are controlling people.
And because a few scientists enjoy being on the TV.
It's idiotic, conspiracy theory stuff.
The problem with that line of reasoning is that it assumes that there won't be an endless series of excuses, all of which will be immediately swallowed as necessary or even welcomed.
We are already at, or very close to, the point at which everybody in Phase One has been double-vaxxed. But this isn't good enough. It's all too easy to foresee what's likely to come next. First, we have to wait for x-number of weeks to gather more data, then another x-number of weeks for every adult to have one jab, then again for every adult to have the second jab, then after that for secondary school children to be vaccinated, and then for the olds to have their boosters, and then we can't unlock because it's Autumn and the bad weather has arrived, and then because the NHS can't cope with flu and Covid at the same time, etc. etc.
And through it all the Government dithers, flip-flops about, won't commit to anything, and wouldn't be trusted to deliver if it did. It does all make it rather hard to feel positive about the situation.
Morning. Do we have "in hospital" Covid numbers for today yet?
Answering my own questions: yes we do. In England it's 884 down from 906 yesterday, but up from 805 a week ago. So it's currently trending at about a 10% weekly rise.
Which I would suggest is not sufficiently alarming to prevent the relaxation of restrictions.
HOWEVER, the government really should move to a mixed dosing regime and get those 6.1m unused AZ doses into peoples' arms. Allow walk ins for the AZ jab - the suppression of transmission benefits to having an additional 5m people with at least one jab are absolutely enormous.
The virus will simply run out of unvaccinated people to hospitalise at some point very soon. This is the exit wave, Israel had it too as the virus finds those unvaccinated people.
Unfortunately there are a large number of young people and children who are unvaccinated. Not all of them will get mild symptoms.
I am very conflicted over this
It seems that the growth in covid is hitting the unvaccinated and young but it has not overwhelmed the NHS
There are so many so called professionals, including Independent Sage, who have always insisted on a zero or elimination covid policy with no heed of the damage to mental health, outstanding urgent medical non covid procedures, and of course the economy.
I hope Boris steers a middle course on Monday with concentration on opening outdoor events and modest retention of restrictions including face masks and some social distancing
I am sitting on the fence at present, but surely vaccinations must curtail the need to delay 21st June by much more than a coupe of weeks
And as far as poll ratings are concerned, I doubt there will be much change, not least because Labour have no street cred with the public
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
Four more weeks seems to be the consensus.
I would be surprised if nothing changed. I would think still best guess is that most restrictions will go for private enterprises but public measures will stay (masks on tube, hospitals, govt buildings, etc).
But that I realise is coming to be a hugely optimistic scenario.
We all said hospitalisations not cases and here we (and the BMA) are on cases.
This is the UK we're in right now. Very disappointing.
Four more weeks to what?
A commitment to a definite re-opening?
Or a 'further review, as pubman says.
Because the uncertainty of a further review is going to surely drive many businesses to the wall. Others, operating at a loss, will have to decide whether it is worth it.
Some may decide to open anyway, like Lloyd Webber.
Yes that's their problem. There will never be a right time. So to open everything up and keep restrictions for govt/public places might work to assuage the zeros and yet those who want to get on with life will be able to do so.
But as you say, aside from the businesses, to have a perpetual "further review" will imo deal a heavy blow to the mental health of hundreds of thousands if not millions. The uncertainty becomes worse than the knowledge of risk.
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
Johnson is a political animal. He will be more terrified of going to stage 4 and doing a sudden u turn then standing pat. The U turn would likely massively damage him politically, standing pat wont
Standing pat will do massive damage.
Hospitality etc have had 3 winters already. They need this summer. Pissing away this summer is not an option.
Nightclubs at least aren't especially seasonal AFAIK so they're the soft target (as well as being the one mostly used by the unvaccinated, least used by voters).
Not sure they checked out the name very well...mere....well that could be that all their food tastes merrrrh...or the phrase what a mere / having a mere, as in what a mere that place is.
NEW: Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.
That would be shocking imo. Essentially open ended restrictions. Would you be happy with that?
A four week hiatus to a 'further review' is a recipe for total and utter chaos.
People travelling to Guernsey from the UK who have not had two doses of a Covid-19 vaccine must be tested and self-isolate from 1 July.
The move applies to people coming from the Common Travel Area which includes the UK, Jersey, Isle of Man and Republic of Ireland.
The start of a traffic light system has been delayed following the spread of the Delta variant in the UK.
It means the current 4-tier system of categories remains in place.
But those coming from the Common Travel Area who have had their second dose more than two weeks before arriving will be able to avoid the testing and self-isolation.
Letters will start going out in July confirming an individual's vaccination status - ongoing they will be issued two weeks after they've received the second jab
Well we're going on holiday to Jersey in August and no doubt they'll follow suit. I wonder what that means for double vaccinated parents with unvaxxed children and teenagers.
Jersey has been more relaxed on border control than Guernsey (and hence has had much longer use of NPIs - mask wearing for example) and also has had a significantly greater case load - currently 17 vs 0.
NEW: Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros
He really has no political antennae
Hot out of interjecting himself into the TERF wars, he is now doing the same with an issue that is far more mainstream but also divides.
The luxury of opposition is you can sidestep these landmines by not really giving a view. Something that is harder when in power.
63 hospitalisations from 32k cases of Delta. That's a rate of just 0.2% so far, we would normally expect around 5% of cases to present severe enough symptoms to result in hospitalisation. There's also no word on how many of these cases were precautionary and how many resulted in more than one night in hospital.
Given how the variant data lags and needs tracing back to specific people with follow ups I would be surprised if that 0.2% hospitalisation rate gets any higher, in fact I'd expect it to go down as cumulative factors start coming into play with more people getting their first and second doses.
Look at it this way, where we'd previously have expected 1000 people to be hospitalised, we're now only seeing 38, in addition other reports from the NHs chiefs have said that case severity is serverely down and far fewer people turning up hospital are requiring any significant interventions and are being sent home on the same day.
We're genuinely in the clear and there is simply no reason to delay June 21st. There is no conceivable route to an NHS crash and that is the reason for having any NPIs. Boris needs to tell all of the scientists to get back in their corner.
I think June 21st should go ahead. Lift all legal restrictions and counsel (guidance only) caution based on personal risk assessment.
But -
The argument that because lockdown was imposed to stop the NHS crashing it follows simply from this that every single restriction should go now because the NHS will NOT crash - this argument I do not find to be a slam dunk.
The fact is we're not talking about a single event to go from 'lock' to 'unlock'. Lockdown has already to a significant extent been reversed. What's left are the final steps of a gradual process.
Ok, so the NHS won't fall over whatever we do because of the vaccines. That's great. But what if an explosion in cases led to sufficient stress on the service (in places) to significantly hamper the efforts to start tackling the big backlog they have? People would suffer. Maybe a lot of people. And long Covid. Ditto. And of course the people who would still die of Covid.
So I don't think it's a total no-brainer.
I'll repeat what I said earlier. We've introduced extraordinary legal restrictions because we faced a genuine national emergency. Thanks to the vaccines the emergency is over. So the legal restrictions go.
Otherwise we will always be having extraordinary legal restrictions being imposed in response to norovirus, or normal winter influenza.
We need to change our thinking. We need a clear lead that the vaccines have ended the emergency.
Yes. I agree.
But I'm countering (for the noble sake of probe and argument) with the observation that this is not a black/white, 0/100, yes/no, Oasis/Blur situation. The unlock is a process not an event. If (say) we still have 80% of the National Emergency left, we should keep (say) 20% of the response.
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
Johnson is a political animal. He will be more terrified of going to stage 4 and doing a sudden u turn then standing pat. The U turn would likely massively damage him politically, standing pat wont
Standing pat will do massive damage.
Hospitality etc have had 3 winters already. They need this summer. Pissing away this summer is not an option.
Nightclubs at least aren't especially seasonal AFAIK so they're the soft target (as well as being the one mostly used by the unvaccinated, least used by voters).
It will do massive damage to a small number of people in hospitality. But wont damage his conservative core vote From a political viewpoint it is the safer bet for Johnson rather than doing a sudden u turn
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.
That's what they'll do if they want to keep the massage simple and retain "Freedom Day" as a big event - as opposed to it disappearing into a morass of detail.
No doubt it'll be a tour of Camel Valley vineyard tomorrow followed by dinner at Rick Stein's then a leisurely walk around the Lost Gardens of Heligan on Sunday.
Silliness aside, a dinner at the Eden Project is a rather clever choice - dramatic setting, weather proof and yet feels like the open air.
Eden project was another eu funded white elephant that made a lot of people very rich without doing much to help the area it was sited in
Is that true? I don't think the guy who set it up has got rich off the back of it. And it employs a lot of people. I think it's a pretty incredible place, TBH, although it's always way too busy. I prefer the Lost Gardens though, that's a really magical place. The contrast of the two is interesting: one innovative and futuristic, the other nostalgic and traditional. We seem as a country to be more comfortable with the latter, which is a pity I think, although I guess I am as much at fault as anyone else.
as i say Johnson is the ultimate political animal....he will regard businesses going to the wall as a price well worth paying to keep his poll ratings high
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.
'Further review...??''
''Further review'' is a recipe for total chaos. Widespread civil disobedience, riots, mass bankruptcies pub/theatre/cinema etc closures.
I don't think you realise how stretched many businesses are. Even the ones that are open.
OK, so the NHS won't fall over whatever we do because of the vaccines. That's great. But what if an explosion in cases led to sufficient stress on the service (in places) to significantly hamper the efforts to start tackling the big backlog they have? People would suffer. Maybe a lot of people. And long Covid. Ditto. And of course the people who would still die of Covid.
So I don't think it's a total no-brainer.
1. We are reaching the point where, come June 21st, virtually all the over 50s will have been double-vaxxed and are therefore going to have as much protection as they're going to have from the virus. The risk is therefore disproportionately borne by the young (who are at very low risk of illness, and probably more likely to be harmed by the economic fallout of this disaster,) and the anti-vaxxers. I'll be a little more diplomatic than Max about the latter, but we really shouldn't shed too many tears if they get ill.
Thus, nearly everyone who dies of Covid from hereon in is going to die of Covid at some point anyway - either because they won't (or, in a tiny number of very sad cases, can't) accept the help offered by the vaccines, or the vaccines haven't worked very well for them. These people cannot be saved by dither. They can only be granted a brief stay of execution, at huge cost to everybody else.
2. You can't justify locking people up to give the NHS time to clear its backlog. If we do that then we'll all stay locked up for five to ten years.
3. That only leaves the Long Covid problem. So, the calculation is: do we keep restrictions to minimise Long Covid cases, even if that means they stay for most of the rest of the year whilst the vaccination programme works its way down through young adults AND older children? Or do we say that the other non-Covid harms caused by dragging this thing out for months longer now outweigh those caused by Long Covid?
It won't surprise you to hear that I think we should just go ahead and open up, but if you take the contrary view then consider: what happens if restrictions are kept in place for months for this reason, and then other perfectly plausible sounding reasons are found to keep them going once practically everyone over the age of about eight has been vaccinated twice? Because they will be.
Are we meant to keep living like this forever?
I also think we should unlock 100%. But I was just explaining why (imo) the argument that "NHS won't collapse = No case for ANY restrictions" is not the impeccable piece of logic some think it is.
63 hospitalisations from 32k cases of Delta. That's a rate of just 0.2% so far, we would normally expect around 5% of cases to present severe enough symptoms to result in hospitalisation. There's also no word on how many of these cases were precautionary and how many resulted in more than one night in hospital.
Given how the variant data lags and needs tracing back to specific people with follow ups I would be surprised if that 0.2% hospitalisation rate gets any higher, in fact I'd expect it to go down as cumulative factors start coming into play with more people getting their first and second doses.
Look at it this way, where we'd previously have expected 1000 people to be hospitalised, we're now only seeing 38, in addition other reports from the NHs chiefs have said that case severity is serverely down and far fewer people turning up hospital are requiring any significant interventions and are being sent home on the same day.
We're genuinely in the clear and there is simply no reason to delay June 21st. There is no conceivable route to an NHS crash and that is the reason for having any NPIs. Boris needs to tell all of the scientists to get back in their corner.
I think June 21st should go ahead. Lift all legal restrictions and counsel (guidance only) caution based on personal risk assessment.
But -
The argument that because lockdown was imposed to stop the NHS crashing it follows simply from this that every single restriction should go now because the NHS will NOT crash - this argument I do not find to be a slam dunk.
The fact is we're not talking about a single event to go from 'lock' to 'unlock'. Lockdown has already to a significant extent been reversed. What's left are the final steps of a gradual process.
Ok, so the NHS won't fall over whatever we do because of the vaccines. That's great. But what if an explosion in cases led to sufficient stress on the service (in places) to significantly hamper the efforts to start tackling the big backlog they have? People would suffer. Maybe a lot of people. And long Covid. Ditto. And of course the people who would still die of Covid.
So I don't think it's a total no-brainer.
I'll repeat what I said earlier. We've introduced extraordinary legal restrictions because we faced a genuine national emergency. Thanks to the vaccines the emergency is over. So the legal restrictions go.
Otherwise we will always be having extraordinary legal restrictions being imposed in response to norovirus, or normal winter influenza.
We need to change our thinking. We need a clear lead that the vaccines have ended the emergency.
Yes. I agree.
But I'm countering (for the noble sake of probe and argument) with the observation that this is not a black/white, 0/100, yes/no, Oasis/Blur situation. The unlock is a process not an event. If (say) we still have 80% of the National Emergency left, we should keep (say) 20% of the response.
Arguably.
I'm not saying that the government do nothing. The Emergency is over, but there's still a public health issue.
It's the nature of what the government does that is different. The legal powers of the Coronavirus Act need to end, and we switch back to a more normal public health response: vaccinations, advice, etc.
It's really important that we make this shift in thinking. The extraordinary powers, the micromanaging of legal restrictions are no longer appropriate or justifiable.
No doubt it'll be a tour of Camel Valley vineyard tomorrow followed by dinner at Rick Stein's then a leisurely walk around the Lost Gardens of Heligan on Sunday.
Silliness aside, a dinner at the Eden Project is a rather clever choice - dramatic setting, weather proof and yet feels like the open air.
Eden project was another eu funded white elephant that made a lot of people very rich without doing much to help the area it was sited in
Is that true? I don't think the guy who set it up has got rich off the back of it. And it employs a lot of people. I think it's a pretty incredible place, TBH, although it's always way too busy. I prefer the Lost Gardens though, that's a really magical place. The contrast of the two is interesting: one innovative and futuristic, the other nostalgic and traditional. We seem as a country to be more comfortable with the latter, which is a pity I think, although I guess I am as much at fault as anyone else.
The Eden project was a bust at first, then slowly grew to a popular attraction. In some ways a bit like the Millenium Dome.
Morning. Do we have "in hospital" Covid numbers for today yet?
Answering my own questions: yes we do. In England it's 884 down from 906 yesterday, but up from 805 a week ago. So it's currently trending at about a 10% weekly rise.
Which I would suggest is not sufficiently alarming to prevent the relaxation of restrictions.
HOWEVER, the government really should move to a mixed dosing regime and get those 6.1m unused AZ doses into peoples' arms. Allow walk ins for the AZ jab - the suppression of transmission benefits to having an additional 5m people with at least one jab are absolutely enormous.
The virus will simply run out of unvaccinated people to hospitalise at some point very soon. This is the exit wave, Israel had it too as the virus finds those unvaccinated people.
Unfortunately there are a large number of young people and children who are unvaccinated. Not all of them will get mild symptoms.
There are so many so called professionals, including Independent Sage, who have always insisted on a zero or elimination covid policy
The Guernsey CMO has described that as 'epidemiologically illiterate" and was clear today that COVID will be with us for the foreseeable future, and some people will get sick, and some of them will die - but we need to get back to some form of life and live with COVID.
BREAKING: The British Medical Association is calling for a delay to the easing of all remaining lockdown restrictions in England due to case numbers ‘rising rapidly’.
I guess it makes a change from them calling for yet another improvement for GPs salary and pension arrangements.
Ken Clark once said the BMA were by far the most militant union he ever had to deal with.
If Ken Clarke had not spent so much of his career moving from department to department fighting Conservative-voting professionals like doctors and the police, the Conservative Party might have done better in 1997.
No doubt it'll be a tour of Camel Valley vineyard tomorrow followed by dinner at Rick Stein's then a leisurely walk around the Lost Gardens of Heligan on Sunday.
Silliness aside, a dinner at the Eden Project is a rather clever choice - dramatic setting, weather proof and yet feels like the open air.
Eden project was another eu funded white elephant that made a lot of people very rich without doing much to help the area it was sited in
Is that true? I don't think the guy who set it up has got rich off the back of it. And it employs a lot of people. I think it's a pretty incredible place, TBH, although it's always way too busy. I prefer the Lost Gardens though, that's a really magical place. The contrast of the two is interesting: one innovative and futuristic, the other nostalgic and traditional. We seem as a country to be more comfortable with the latter, which is a pity I think, although I guess I am as much at fault as anyone else.
Went there last summer, the LG of H. Very atmospheric. Walked across that rope ladder in that tropical area and it felt like I could have been in my 2nd home - Malaysia.
OK, so the NHS won't fall over whatever we do because of the vaccines. That's great. But what if an explosion in cases led to sufficient stress on the service (in places) to significantly hamper the efforts to start tackling the big backlog they have? People would suffer. Maybe a lot of people. And long Covid. Ditto. And of course the people who would still die of Covid.
So I don't think it's a total no-brainer.
1. We are reaching the point where, come June 21st, virtually all the over 50s will have been double-vaxxed and are therefore going to have as much protection as they're going to have from the virus. The risk is therefore disproportionately borne by the young (who are at very low risk of illness, and probably more likely to be harmed by the economic fallout of this disaster,) and the anti-vaxxers. I'll be a little more diplomatic than Max about the latter, but we really shouldn't shed too many tears if they get ill.
Thus, nearly everyone who dies of Covid from hereon in is going to die of Covid at some point anyway - either because they won't (or, in a tiny number of very sad cases, can't) accept the help offered by the vaccines, or the vaccines haven't worked very well for them. These people cannot be saved by dither. They can only be granted a brief stay of execution, at huge cost to everybody else.
2. You can't justify locking people up to give the NHS time to clear its backlog. If we do that then we'll all stay locked up for five to ten years.
3. That only leaves the Long Covid problem. So, the calculation is: do we keep restrictions to minimise Long Covid cases, even if that means they stay for most of the rest of the year whilst the vaccination programme works its way down through young adults AND older children? Or do we say that the other non-Covid harms caused by dragging this thing out for months longer now outweigh those caused by Long Covid?
It won't surprise you to hear that I think we should just go ahead and open up, but if you take the contrary view then consider: what happens if restrictions are kept in place for months for this reason, and then other perfectly plausible sounding reasons are found to keep them going once practically everyone over the age of about eight has been vaccinated twice? Because they will be.
Are we meant to keep living like this forever?
I also think we should unlock 100%. But I was just explaining why (imo) the argument that "NHS won't collapse = No case for ANY restrictions" is not the impeccable piece of logic some think it is.
Oh absolutely. It ought to be a sufficient argument, because saving the NHS from implosion was the sole justification for all this bullying and pestering behaviour in the first place. But all that's happened now that the NHS is safe from implosion is that the goalposts are inevitably being moved. For one reason or another, the politicians and the scientists really, really do not want to let go.
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.
'Further review...??''
''Further review'' is a recipe for total chaos. Widespread civil disobedience, riots, mass bankruptcies pub/theatre/cinema etc closures.
I don't think you realise how stretched many businesses are. Even the ones that are open.
Maybe getting vaccinated would help
The government is undermining its own vaccination program with its 'government by scariant' policy
Vaccines are the way out, except when they might not be. Except when they are not completely effective. Or they face a new variant. At which point they become devalued.
Your efforts in getting vaccinated are amazing and wonderful UNTIL THEY AREN'T - because of variants.
And so vaccinations are not really about safety, are they? they are a control tool. And that's why I am not taking one.
Maybe. He's certainly in a hole. But I don't see the point of trying to agitate him out right now. He has to be given a year or so to see if he can get some traction.
He's had a year. That went well.
Be fun to see what he can do with another.
Maybe he should be given two elections, like Corbyn.
Sure. But it's been a year like no other. I think any Labour leader would have struggled. The Cons have a structural majority courtesy of Brexit and on top of that you have public gratitude/familiarity courtesy of the pandemic/vaccines. The big question is will this persist. My sense is things will start to turn soon. It's not the strongest sense I've ever had though. Maybe "hope" would be a better word for it.
Being a year like no other didn't hurt Biden.
I guess the great British public have decided Boris is more like New Zealand's Ardern in leading us through the pandemic well.
They're not wrong.
Donald Trump was/is a uniquely toxic and incompetent politician. There's no read across.
I am sure this will get brought up constantly just as it does for Keir Starmer. Boris Johnson a radical Marxist. Who would have thought?
Do let us know when you find any non-loony party on their knees like this...
There's been nothing like it since John Cleese and his silly walks.
That suggests to me that you might be a racist
Interesting snippet. If I type Black lives matter, I have to leave an extra space between “lives” and “matter” to keep both lower case, otherwise iOS autocorrects it to Black Lives Matter and won’t let me change the capital letters
Fake news.
Mine gives me the 'Black lives matter' option no problem, no need for extra spaces.
Actually it isn’t: it’s exactly what I typed in and it automatically corrected to capital letters.
Anyway, who are you to challenge my experience? Surely the behaviour of the oppressor.
Hello @kinabalu. Quick question - given what Trump faced in 2020, which US President do you think would have been re-elected in those circumstances?
Anyone who didn't treat the pandemic as a joke/non event or understood science.
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.
'Further review...??''
''Further review'' is a recipe for total chaos. Widespread civil disobedience, riots, mass bankruptcies pub/theatre/cinema etc closures.
I don't think you realise how stretched many businesses are. Even the ones that are open.
Maybe getting vaccinated would help
The government is undermining its own vaccination program with its 'government by scariant' policy
Vaccines are the way out, except when they might not be. Except when they are not completely effective. Or they face a new variant. At which point they become devalued.
Your efforts in getting vaccinated are amazing and wonderful UNTIL THEY AREN'T - because of variants.
And so vaccinations are not really about safety, are they? they are a control tool. And that's why I am not taking one.
I dont think from the way they are behaving the govt has confidence in their own vaccine. Look at the surge in cases in virtually fully vaccinated chile with hospitals getting overwhelmed again. If they know something about the vaccine we dont they may be reluctant to unlock properly
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.
'Further review...??''
''Further review'' is a recipe for total chaos. Widespread civil disobedience, riots, mass bankruptcies pub/theatre/cinema etc closures.
I don't think you realise how stretched many businesses are. Even the ones that are open.
Maybe getting vaccinated would help
The government is undermining its own vaccination program with its 'government by scariant' policy
Vaccines are the way out, except when they might not be. Except when they are not completely effective. Or they face a new variant. At which point they become devalued.
Your efforts in getting vaccinated are amazing and wonderful UNTIL THEY AREN'T - because of variants.
And so vaccinations are not really about safety, are they? they are a control tool. And that's why I am not taking one.
It is a good job that 41,088,485 do not share your views, with tens of thousands added daily
And so vaccinations are not really about safety, are they? they are a control tool. And that's why I am not taking one.
In what sense a control tool? I don't think you're one of the QAnon people who think it's injecting some literal form of control by Soros and Gates, but I'm genuinely not sure what you mean? I've had both vaccinations - in what way am I now being controlled?
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.
'Further review...??''
''Further review'' is a recipe for total chaos. Widespread civil disobedience, riots, mass bankruptcies pub/theatre/cinema etc closures.
I don't think you realise how stretched many businesses are. Even the ones that are open.
Maybe getting vaccinated would help
The government is undermining its own vaccination program with its 'government by scariant' policy
Vaccines are the way out, except when they might not be. Except when they are not completely effective. Or they face a new variant. At which point they become devalued.
Your efforts in getting vaccinated are amazing and wonderful UNTIL THEY AREN'T - because of variants.
And so vaccinations are not really about safety, are they? they are a control tool. And that's why I am not taking one.
I do agree with that actually.
I know several people that are starting to say was the point of getting vaccinated if it doesn't bring an end to the pandemic...
Maybe. He's certainly in a hole. But I don't see the point of trying to agitate him out right now. He has to be given a year or so to see if he can get some traction.
He's had a year. That went well.
Be fun to see what he can do with another.
Maybe he should be given two elections, like Corbyn.
Sure. But it's been a year like no other. I think any Labour leader would have struggled. The Cons have a structural majority courtesy of Brexit and on top of that you have public gratitude/familiarity courtesy of the pandemic/vaccines. The big question is will this persist. My sense is things will start to turn soon. It's not the strongest sense I've ever had though. Maybe "hope" would be a better word for it.
Being a year like no other didn't hurt Biden.
I guess the great British public have decided Boris is more like New Zealand's Ardern in leading us through the pandemic well.
They're not wrong.
Donald Trump was/is a uniquely toxic and incompetent politician. There's no read across.
I am sure this will get brought up constantly just as it does for Keir Starmer. Boris Johnson a radical Marxist. Who would have thought?
Do let us know when you find any non-loony party on their knees like this...
There's been nothing like it since John Cleese and his silly walks.
That suggests to me that you might be a racist
Interesting snippet. If I type Black lives matter, I have to leave an extra space between “lives” and “matter” to keep both lower case, otherwise iOS autocorrects it to Black Lives Matter and won’t let me change the capital letters
Fake news.
Mine gives me the 'Black lives matter' option no problem, no need for extra spaces.
Actually it isn’t: it’s exactly what I typed in and it automatically corrected to capital letters.
Anyway, who are you to challenge my experience? Surely the behaviour of the oppressor.
Hello @kinabalu. Quick question - given what Trump faced in 2020, which US President do you think would have been re-elected in those circumstances?
Anyone who didn't treat the pandemic as a joke/non event or understood science.
2020 should have been a lay-up for an incumbent.
Given how much of the US media is up Biden's a*se, I'm sure that would have been the case if he was the incumbent.
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.
'Further review...??''
''Further review'' is a recipe for total chaos. Widespread civil disobedience, riots, mass bankruptcies pub/theatre/cinema etc closures.
I don't think you realise how stretched many businesses are. Even the ones that are open.
Maybe getting vaccinated would help
The government is undermining its own vaccination program with its 'government by scariant' policy
Vaccines are the way out, except when they might not be. Except when they are not completely effective. Or they face a new variant. At which point they become devalued.
Your efforts in getting vaccinated are amazing and wonderful UNTIL THEY AREN'T - because of variants.
And so vaccinations are not really about safety, are they? they are a control tool. And that's why I am not taking one.
I dont think from the way they are behaving the govt has confidence in their own vaccine. Look at the surge in cases in virtually fully vaccinated chile with hospitals getting overwhelmed again. If they know something about the vaccine we dont they may be reluctant to unlock properly
They trumpet the vax program as wonderful and amazing.
But it is not amazing or wonderful enough for you to be able to go to Benidorm for a week, as Theresa May pointed out today.
And so its wonderful until it comes to giving you your freedom back in return. At which point 'variants' are used to discredit vaccines.
They value and devalue the currency as they wish. Its about control.
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.
'Further review...??''
''Further review'' is a recipe for total chaos. Widespread civil disobedience, riots, mass bankruptcies pub/theatre/cinema etc closures.
I don't think you realise how stretched many businesses are. Even the ones that are open.
Maybe getting vaccinated would help
The government is undermining its own vaccination program with its 'government by scariant' policy
Vaccines are the way out, except when they might not be. Except when they are not completely effective. Or they face a new variant. At which point they become devalued.
Your efforts in getting vaccinated are amazing and wonderful UNTIL THEY AREN'T - because of variants.
And so vaccinations are not really about safety, are they? they are a control tool. And that's why I am not taking one.
I dont think from the way they are behaving the govt has confidence in their own vaccine. Look at the surge in cases in virtually fully vaccinated chile with hospitals getting overwhelmed again. If they know something about the vaccine we dont they may be reluctant to unlock properly
They trumpet the vax program as wonderful and amazing.
But it is not amazing or wonderful enough for you to be able to go to Benidorm for a week, as Theresa May pointed out today.
And so its wonderful until it comes to giving you your freedom back in return. At which point 'variants' are used to discredit vaccines.
They value and devalue the currency as they wish. Its about control.
Yes its either control or they genuinely think the vaccine doesnt work. Of course if they said that there would be mass panic.
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.
'Further review...??''
''Further review'' is a recipe for total chaos. Widespread civil disobedience, riots, mass bankruptcies pub/theatre/cinema etc closures.
I don't think you realise how stretched many businesses are. Even the ones that are open.
Maybe getting vaccinated would help
The government is undermining its own vaccination program with its 'government by scariant' policy
Vaccines are the way out, except when they might not be. Except when they are not completely effective. Or they face a new variant. At which point they become devalued.
Your efforts in getting vaccinated are amazing and wonderful UNTIL THEY AREN'T - because of variants.
And so vaccinations are not really about safety, are they? they are a control tool. And that's why I am not taking one.
I do agree with that actually.
I know several people that are starting to say was the point of getting vaccinated if it doesn't bring an end to the pandemic...
True up to a point. Getting vaccinated is a very good idea regardless, but one does have a certain amount of sympathy with those who say that all we've done is traded one form of lockdown for another. Because that's basically what it feels like. The threat of getting very sick or croaking from Covid is hugely reduced, but now we discover that all we've achieved is to trade death row for a life sentence in an open prison. When will it end? Will it ever end? Nobody knows.
63 hospitalisations from 32k cases of Delta. That's a rate of just 0.2% so far, we would normally expect around 5% of cases to present severe enough symptoms to result in hospitalisation. There's also no word on how many of these cases were precautionary and how many resulted in more than one night in hospital.
Given how the variant data lags and needs tracing back to specific people with follow ups I would be surprised if that 0.2% hospitalisation rate gets any higher, in fact I'd expect it to go down as cumulative factors start coming into play with more people getting their first and second doses.
Look at it this way, where we'd previously have expected 1000 people to be hospitalised, we're now only seeing 38, in addition other reports from the NHs chiefs have said that case severity is serverely down and far fewer people turning up hospital are requiring any significant interventions and are being sent home on the same day.
We're genuinely in the clear and there is simply no reason to delay June 21st. There is no conceivable route to an NHS crash and that is the reason for having any NPIs. Boris needs to tell all of the scientists to get back in their corner.
I think June 21st should go ahead. Lift all legal restrictions and counsel (guidance only) caution based on personal risk assessment.
But -
The argument that because lockdown was imposed to stop the NHS crashing it follows simply from this that every single restriction should go now because the NHS will NOT crash - this argument I do not find to be a slam dunk.
The fact is we're not talking about a single event to go from 'lock' to 'unlock'. Lockdown has already to a significant extent been reversed. What's left are the final steps of a gradual process.
Ok, so the NHS won't fall over whatever we do because of the vaccines. That's great. But what if an explosion in cases led to sufficient stress on the service (in places) to significantly hamper the efforts to start tackling the big backlog they have? People would suffer. Maybe a lot of people. And long Covid. Ditto. And of course the people who would still die of Covid.
So I don't think it's a total no-brainer.
I'll repeat what I said earlier. We've introduced extraordinary legal restrictions because we faced a genuine national emergency. Thanks to the vaccines the emergency is over. So the legal restrictions go.
Otherwise we will always be having extraordinary legal restrictions being imposed in response to norovirus, or normal winter influenza.
We need to change our thinking. We need a clear lead that the vaccines have ended the emergency.
Yes. I agree.
But I'm countering (for the noble sake of probe and argument) with the observation that this is not a black/white, 0/100, yes/no, Oasis/Blur situation. The unlock is a process not an event. If (say) we still have 80% of the National Emergency left, we should keep (say) 20% of the response.
Arguably.
I'm not saying that the government do nothing. The Emergency is over, but there's still a public health issue.
It's the nature of what the government does that is different. The legal powers of the Coronavirus Act need to end, and we switch back to a more normal public health response: vaccinations, advice, etc.
It's really important that we make this shift in thinking. The extraordinary powers, the micromanaging of legal restrictions are no longer appropriate or justifiable.
I agree with you - and in fact I think there should have been more guidance and less law in the response. Particularly as regards household mixing and personal (as opposed to commercial) life. Where I agree less is I don't share the acute level of concern of some (eg you) that we are being infantilized and are completely losing our perspective on freedom vs security. I see where the concern is coming from - and I do share it just a little bit - but I don't really feel it and I don't think (as of now) it's justified or rational. We are getting through this. We're close to the end. And life is miles better and more normal now than it was a couple of months ago. We're not "locked down". That's a total misnomer. We're just being (if the drums are right) overcautious on the last steps. But if significant legal restrictions persist beyond (say) July/Aug, I'll probably change my tune.
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.
'Further review...??''
''Further review'' is a recipe for total chaos. Widespread civil disobedience, riots, mass bankruptcies pub/theatre/cinema etc closures.
I don't think you realise how stretched many businesses are. Even the ones that are open.
Maybe getting vaccinated would help
The government is undermining its own vaccination program with its 'government by scariant' policy
Vaccines are the way out, except when they might not be. Except when they are not completely effective. Or they face a new variant. At which point they become devalued.
Your efforts in getting vaccinated are amazing and wonderful UNTIL THEY AREN'T - because of variants.
And so vaccinations are not really about safety, are they? they are a control tool. And that's why I am not taking one.
It is a good job that 41,088,485 do not share your views, with tens of thousands added daily
They are the responsible citizens prisoners of this country
Fixed it for you
(Not rubbishing the vaccines BTW - they just show no imminent sign of getting us out of jail. They may never get us out of jail. Which is thoroughly shite.)
There is SOME evidence that vaccines are working well against the Delta variant but given that most of the Delta cases are new it is too soon to be sure.
Again there is SOME evidence that fewer cases are leading to hospitalisations but again it is too early to be sure. Most of the Delta infections have only been reported in the last week/10 days or so and there is a lag in hospitalisation data.
Also the Government is ABSOLUTELY DESPERATE not to go backwards ie go back to Stage 2 rules or worse.
So this is why the Government will take 4 more weeks.
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
My forecast: no substantive change ie no Freedom Day 21 June with a further review in 4 weeks. Likely though that weddings and similar events will be allowed with no limits on numbers, or maybe an increase to 100.
'Further review...??''
''Further review'' is a recipe for total chaos. Widespread civil disobedience, riots, mass bankruptcies pub/theatre/cinema etc closures.
I don't think you realise how stretched many businesses are. Even the ones that are open.
Maybe getting vaccinated would help
The government is undermining its own vaccination program with its 'government by scariant' policy
Vaccines are the way out, except when they might not be. Except when they are not completely effective. Or they face a new variant. At which point they become devalued.
Your efforts in getting vaccinated are amazing and wonderful UNTIL THEY AREN'T - because of variants.
And so vaccinations are not really about safety, are they? they are a control tool. And that's why I am not taking one.
It is a good job that 41,088,485 do not share your views, with tens of thousands added daily
They are the responsible citizens prisoners of this country
Fixed it for you
Without vaccinations you really would be a prisoner in this country
How does a man wear a shirt for any length of time when it's like this?
Could be worse. All day in PPE yesterday 😷😫
I'll keep on bashing away on this topic - from doing welding, the difference between wearing a proper face mask with a air blown in through a filter vs an assortment of PPE.... well, the air-conditioning effect from the blow air, is very very nice.
For the future I want to see a good hard look (proper trials and research) at moving to reusable equipment like that rather than the array of masks and face shields that you see being used.
Comments
We've gone from 2,193 cases to 8,125 from 14th May to date. That's an increase of 270%.
We've gone from 103 admissions on 10th May to 173 on 7th June. That's an increase of 72%.
And, we've gone from 973 hospitalisations on 10th May to 1058 on 8th June. That's an increase of 9%. However, hospitalisations fell until 26th May, at 892. The increase from 26th May to 9th June is therefore 19%. Assuming that this reflects cases that arose between 16th and 30th May, case numbers over that period rose from 1,926 to 3,240, or 68%. So, it does look as though hospitalisations are rising at a far slower rate than case numbers, suggesting that the vaccination programme has been very successful.
That said, the lawyers often are right, which is why court decisions are accepted as sacrosanct.
Some people are happy with how its gone and want to keep the lockdown going, others are getting very pissed off with the whole thing. A bit like here I suppose!
Otherwise we will always be having extraordinary legal restrictions being imposed in response to norovirus, or normal winter influenza.
We need to change our thinking. We need a clear lead that the vaccines have ended the emergency.
Thus, nearly everyone who dies of Covid from hereon in is going to die of Covid at some point anyway - either because they won't (or, in a tiny number of very sad cases, can't) accept the help offered by the vaccines, or the vaccines haven't worked very well for them. These people cannot be saved by dither. They can only be granted a brief stay of execution, at huge cost to everybody else.
2. You can't justify locking people up to give the NHS time to clear its backlog. If we do that then we'll all stay locked up for five to ten years.
3. That only leaves the Long Covid problem. So, the calculation is: do we keep restrictions to minimise Long Covid cases, even if that means they stay for most of the rest of the year whilst the vaccination programme works its way down through young adults AND older children? Or do we say that the other non-Covid harms caused by dragging this thing out for months longer now outweigh those caused by Long Covid?
It won't surprise you to hear that I think we should just go ahead and open up, but if you take the contrary view then consider: what happens if restrictions are kept in place for months for this reason, and then other perfectly plausible sounding reasons are found to keep them going once practically everyone over the age of about eight has been vaccinated twice? Because they will be.
Are we meant to keep living like this forever?
And it is probably making us unfit and ill as a nation. We will more likely remember the businesses lost than lives saved.
But politics is what politics is, they can’t gamble with their poll ratings as on top of it by allowing 3rd wave to make a mess.
Stand pat
Hybrid
Freedom
???
Mainstream media seem unanimous. Johnson must stand pat.
Russian discounter Mere aiming for 300 UK stores in 10 years
The hard discounter, which claims it will undercut Lidl and Aldi by 20%-30%, is determined to scale its UK presence
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/discounters/russian-discounter-mere-aiming-for-300-uk-stores-in-10-years/656929.article
The slump is due to other stuff. Pandemic. Vaccines. Being dull compared to the MMM. Not opposing enough. Whatever.
This is my point.
"Now that we are together, united, determined to make a difference, it's time to deliver. I'm sure we will, @JoeBiden!"
https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1403375117158293509
NEW: Keir Starmer says Boris Johnson’s reluctance to condemn fans who boo England player’s for taking the knee has undermined the team’s chances of success at the Euros
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaldozNHHhE
I would be surprised if nothing changed. I would think still best guess is that most restrictions will go for private enterprises but public measures will stay (masks on tube, hospitals, govt buildings, etc).
But that I realise is coming to be a hugely optimistic scenario.
We all said hospitalisations not cases and here we (and the BMA) are on cases.
This is the UK we're in right now. Very disappointing.
''Further review'' is a recipe for total chaos. Widespread civil disobedience, riots, mass bankruptcies pub/theatre/cinema etc closures.
I don't think you realise how stretched many businesses are. Even the ones that are open.
You can’t the beat the unmistakeable taste of Yakutsk.
Not sure what they'll do about sport. The football season is over and major events are things like the Euros were commitments have already been made and the Cricket etc, so maybe lift restrictions on that too since they've already committed to most of it, and it allows more to be said as having been lifted.
Make sense to lift restrictions on theatres too - after all they'll be most visited by vaccinated people anyway! Its nightclubs that are mostly visited by the unvaccinated.
Specialising in empty shelves and bread queues?
A commitment to a definite re-opening?
Or a 'further review, as pubman says.
Because the uncertainty of a further review is going to surely drive many businesses to the wall. Others, operating at a loss, will have to decide whether it is worth it.
Some may decide to open anyway, like Lloyd Webber.
We are already at, or very close to, the point at which everybody in Phase One has been double-vaxxed. But this isn't good enough. It's all too easy to foresee what's likely to come next. First, we have to wait for x-number of weeks to gather more data, then another x-number of weeks for every adult to have one jab, then again for every adult to have the second jab, then after that for secondary school children to be vaccinated, and then for the olds to have their boosters, and then we can't unlock because it's Autumn and the bad weather has arrived, and then because the NHS can't cope with flu and Covid at the same time, etc. etc.
And through it all the Government dithers, flip-flops about, won't commit to anything, and wouldn't be trusted to deliver if it did. It does all make it rather hard to feel positive about the situation.
It seems that the growth in covid is hitting the unvaccinated and young but it has not overwhelmed the NHS
There are so many so called professionals, including Independent Sage, who have always insisted on a zero or elimination covid policy with no heed of the damage to mental health, outstanding urgent medical non covid procedures, and of course the economy.
I hope Boris steers a middle course on Monday with concentration on opening outdoor events and modest retention of restrictions including face masks and some social distancing
I am sitting on the fence at present, but surely vaccinations must curtail the need to delay 21st June by much more than a coupe of weeks
And as far as poll ratings are concerned, I doubt there will be much change, not least because Labour have no street cred with the public
But as you say, aside from the businesses, to have a perpetual "further review" will imo deal a heavy blow to the mental health of hundreds of thousands if not millions. The uncertainty becomes worse than the knowledge of risk.
But look at the polls.........
Hospitality etc have had 3 winters already. They need this summer. Pissing away this summer is not an option.
Nightclubs at least aren't especially seasonal AFAIK so they're the soft target (as well as being the one mostly used by the unvaccinated, least used by voters).
These are the entry requirements:
https://twitter.com/GovJersey/status/1403010828224192512?s=20
Don't know about Jersey, but the Guernsey CMO today said children would enjoy their parent's vaccination status.
vs yesterday
The luxury of opposition is you can sidestep these landmines by not really giving a view. Something that is harder when in power.
But I'm countering (for the noble sake of probe and argument) with the observation that this is not a black/white, 0/100, yes/no, Oasis/Blur situation. The unlock is a process not an event. If (say) we still have 80% of the National Emergency left, we should keep (say) 20% of the response.
Arguably.
The contrast of the two is interesting: one innovative and futuristic, the other nostalgic and traditional. We seem as a country to be more comfortable with the latter, which is a pity I think, although I guess I am as much at fault as anyone else.
As of October 2021, GB will restrict the import of chilled meat preparations from the EU [but not NI], as it currently does the rest of the world.
https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/1403340231605108736?s=20
It's the nature of what the government does that is different. The legal powers of the Coronavirus Act need to end, and we switch back to a more normal public health response: vaccinations, advice, etc.
It's really important that we make this shift in thinking. The extraordinary powers, the micromanaging of legal restrictions are no longer appropriate or justifiable.
He is trying to square that circle.
Vaccines are the way out, except when they might not be. Except when they are not completely effective. Or they face a new variant. At which point they become devalued.
Your efforts in getting vaccinated are amazing and wonderful UNTIL THEY AREN'T - because of variants.
And so vaccinations are not really about safety, are they? they are a control tool. And that's why I am not taking one.
They are the responsible citizens of this country
I know several people that are starting to say was the point of getting vaccinated if it doesn't bring an end to the pandemic...
But it is not amazing or wonderful enough for you to be able to go to Benidorm for a week, as Theresa May pointed out today.
And so its wonderful until it comes to giving you your freedom back in return. At which point 'variants' are used to discredit vaccines.
They value and devalue the currency as they wish. Its about control.
(Not rubbishing the vaccines BTW - they just show no imminent sign of getting us out of jail. They may never get us out of jail. Which is thoroughly shite.)
Again there is SOME evidence that fewer cases are leading to hospitalisations but again it is too early to be sure. Most of the Delta infections have only been reported in the last week/10 days or so and there is a lag in hospitalisation data.
Also the Government is ABSOLUTELY DESPERATE not to go backwards ie go back to Stage 2 rules or worse.
So this is why the Government will take 4 more weeks.
For the future I want to see a good hard look (proper trials and research) at moving to reusable equipment like that rather than the array of masks and face shields that you see being used.