We're further behind the curve of the US and the UK in Australia on this re-alignment but it's coming through. At the last federal election the constituency I live in got rid of the right wing former Prime Minister (Abbott), and replaced him with a Independent who stood on climate change action. This in one of Sydney's wealthiest areas that has always voted Liberal (liberal being the party name rather than their position which is conservative).
Excellent article:
But as England enters a new age of political polarisation, those endless lifestyle articles about whichever places beyond the capital are now held to have the correct mixture of artisan cafes and organic food markets also suggest other social changes that are much narrower, and introverted: what some people call “clustering”.
In a way, the whole citizen of nowhere stuff is back to front. These people very much do care about where they live. I live in Woking, but only because its where I've always lived (except for university). But if could be anywhere in the London commuter belt to be honest. It really wouldn't bother me.
A friend works for a government agency based in Swindon. When he got the job I congratulated him as I thought a civil servant wage would allow for a pretty decent standard of living there.
Anyway, he now lives with his girlfriend in Bristol and commutes to work in Swindon.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
That is what is odd, isn't it? Harry was doing a bang-up job, at least as much as the other Royals, and certainly more innovative with the Invicta Games and so on. But then he threw it all up in the air with this "woe is me" guff.
Sorry if that is unfair: I've not been following and do not really care if the Royal Family ends with Her Majesty or continues for another millennium.
The guy lost his mum at a young age whilst being in the public eye his whole life. Cutting him some slack whether you approve or disapprove of his actions seems the only reasonable way for the rest of us to behave.
So did his brother. Who has been most hurt by Harry abandoning him.
Regarding holidays abroad, has anyone looked at the requirements to re-enter the UK from almost everywhere? A negative test before you can get on the plane plus a further two private tests during your mandatory 10 days of self-isolation.
I know the holiday companies have been banging the drum to try and win some business, but how many people can afford a 2 week holiday and then 10 days holed up at home afterwards? The cheapest pox text package seems to be £99 a person, so that's a fair wodge if you are a family.
Finally, has anyone noted what the 3rd country status we insisted on "winning" means when entering countries like France and Spain? When travel restarts I can see a lot of people barred entry by not having the required paperwork / proof of funds / insurance.
Yes, I had plans to make a European road trip, as I usually do in May. Given how interesting it was travelling last September I did have a good look into whether it would still be possible to go, but decided that all the various and varying testing and quarantine and curfew requirements in place across Europe, coupled with the UK's amber restrictions which I sense won't disappear quite as quickly as some people are suggesting, made the whole thing a complex logistical challenge rather than a holiday break. I'm not travelling in the summer when it will surely be mayhem, so I shall sit here and watch holidaymakers descend from all over the country, and wait for September...
I need to go to see the client in Romania. It will have to wait until later in the summer when perhaps we will have lifted our requirements to self-isolate.
From what I can see of 3rd country immigration rules in France and Spain (and likely others) you can't just drive off and pick somewhere to stay as you go. Unless you can show them that you have a stack of cash to sustain you and a return ticket to exit their country.
Of course could be proven wrong, but I suspect a lot of these rules currently circulating around remainer social media reflect the law but not practical experience. They have the right to throw up all these barriers, but are unlikely to do so in practice. Certainly not to the extent that the letter of the laws imply.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
That is what is odd, isn't it? Harry was doing a bang-up job, at least as much as the other Royals, and certainly more innovative with the Invicta Games and so on. But then he threw it all up in the air with this "woe is me" guff.
Sorry if that is unfair: I've not been following and do not really care if the Royal Family ends with Her Majesty or continues for another millennium.
The guy lost his mum at a young age whilst being in the public eye his whole life. Cutting him some slack whether you approve or disapprove of his actions seems the only reasonable way for the rest of us to behave.
So did his brother. Who has been most hurt by Harry abandoning him.
Nah, its your Daily Mail reader who has been most hurt.
And the models aren't firm predictions, but "if it's transmissible to this degree, or that degree, or that degree, this is what happens," "if vaccine rollout speeds are this, or if they are that..." and "If vaccine efficacy is this, or if it is that..."
... and they also have "optimistic combination" and "pessimistic combination" answers.
And I'm a bit sick of the "either the vaccine works or it doesn't" line. It's either 100% or 0%, right? Or maybe it's neither? And the degree to which it is neither is one of the factors in the models (with varying assumptions, most of which are based on published studies).
And, of course, we have the "everyone vulnerable is already vaccinated" line, ignoring that even a 20-year-old in excellent health has a greater than 1% chance of hospitalisation if infected and unvaccinated, increasing from there (so about a 1% to 2% hospitalisation chance on average of all the 30 million currently left unvaccinated - so even without breakthrough infections, that'd be 300,000-600,000 possible hospitalisations).
The implications of the assumptions lead me to assume that the chances of things going very wrong are very low, as B1.617.2 is susceptible to vaccination. But the incessant "It's all a conspiracy!", "What are they thinking!?" (go and look?), "Well, the vaccines work or they don't, right?" lines do rather pall after a while.
I mean, yes, the media are bloody awful in amplifying the most dramatic possible "coulds" and "possiblys" in trying to imply that [INSERT_GROUP] are preacing disaster, but that doesn't mean we need to fall for it every bloody time.
The 30 million unvaccinated will be predominantly under 20 so at even less risk.
Plus millions of them will already have immunity from prior infection.
I think the answer to the conundrum is undoubtedly that the modelling is more reliable than the people on social media who barely understand the basic scientific concepts and would be severaly arithmetically handicapped even if they did understand the science.
The questions are: (1) will the vaccination programme take us to herd immunity, (2) if not, how many more people will need to be infected to get us to herd immunity, and (3) what percentage of those people will be hospitalised and what percentage will die?
We don't really have the information to do more than guess at the answers to those questions. But if the Indian variant really had an R0 of 5-6, and if AstraZeneca were only 50-60% effective against infection (and that is for the original version of the virus), as trials suggest, then the answer to (1) would be "no, nothing like". In that case, the key question would be how much more effective AstraZeneca was against death than against infection. That is even less certain, but probably the answer is more effective but not hugely more effective. In which case it's not at all surprising that the modelling is suggesting the possibility of a lot more deaths.
The vaccines appear to be hugely effective against serious illness.
You illustrate my point perfectly. The point is that the modellers will have looked at actual numbers backed up by scientific reasoning. And if they are respectable scientists they will have explained their reasoning and cited their evidence. People on social media just make assertions.
It is not true to say that modellers always look at actual numbers backed up by scientific reasoning. In fact most modelling usually starts off with very little numbers. It starts off with assumptions/variables which are plugged in to generate a range of scenarios. It is only over time when the initial wide range of projections can be overlaid with real numbers that the models can be refined, and the range of possible outcomes narrowed.
Most of the scientific comment i've seen on this Indian variant is still clearly at the initial stages - particularly where it comes to things like transmissibility. They have a wide range of possibilities but are not, as yet, ruling out the worse case scenarios. And for those who prefer caution they are arguing for this until that can be done.
Additionally it's wrong to assume that data modellers don't succumb to political pressure and fiddle with the data to get specific outcomes. The last doom model used a population immunity figure of 45% in May and 55% in June, at the time it was published in April we were already at 55%. It also used an input of just 60% efficacy against hospitalisation when the known efficacy is 80% with a single dose of either vaccine and ~95% with two doses of either vaccine and a cumulative effect of reducing them by over 99% with two doses. It also assumed no reduction in spread but we know that the combined reduction in spread with just one dose of either vaccine is 45%, which is expected to rise fairly significantly with a second dose, that study is ongoing.
As @Selebian and I have argued about a few times, these reasonable worst case scenarios exist to grab headlines and persuade politicians to take specific actions. They aren't actually anywhere near reasonable when it comes to modelling real outcomes.
If those estimates are being used now to to model the non-Indian variants for which we have plenty of data, then it's a disgrace.
I could defend playing around with pretty pessimistic estimates for the Indian variant/other new variants in the limited sense of "if the shit really hits the fan are we still ok for NHS load", paticularly if the answer is 'yes'. The value there is that if you've got someone wetting the bed over "what if the vaccines are only x% effective against Indian variant" then you cna run their silly numbers and say even in that unlikely case, we're still ok, so calm yourself down. I should add the caveat that the numbers you're quoting above still look like nonsense for the Indian variant, from what we know at present. If those numbers are anywhere near a core or even a 'realistic' worst case and were published in the last week or two then I think that was an error (how recent is the 'last doom model' - are we still on the last set of SAGE models?).
Such estimates should absolutely not be used to determine policy - if you work off a way-out-there worst case scenario then we'll delay unlocking, cause unnecessary economic carnage and kill a number of people in different ways (reduced money for all kinds of positive things down the line). A sensible worst case scenario (and what Max describes above certainly does not look like that, should form part of contingency - not driving unlocking rates, but the government should have a plan for what will happen under a reasonable worst case. As far as I can see, at present, that would look like planning for the chance of a bit of a spike in hospitalisations in unvaccinated groups and possible local problems where vaccine take-up is lower. That's it.
So, Max, although we've tangled on this a few times, I don't think we're that far apart. I'm not against running the nonsense numbers if they prove to those pushing the nonsense numbers that even in that case we can still cope (I know that you very firmly are). But we do need to try and make sure the media don't run those nonsense numbers in headlines. Anything that far out should be internal only or at least way down in an appendix, not in the main graphs.
I am pleased that you're now of the view that the modellers are succumbing to political pressure rather than the scientists applying pressure to the politicians to lockdown needlessly. I do think we need more scientists speaking out now that we don't need to panic about the new variants and that we're never getting back to the situation we had in January - that needs to be taken firmly off the table as a possibility. Among those that I know, there was a sense of impending doom in December. Now it varies from guarded to unbridled optimism.
Overnight in America “60 Minutes”, the oldest and one of the most sober current affairs shows in the US, broadcast this segment on UAPs (UFOs). Maybe 10 million Americans would have watched it as it aired, and it will now be bouncing around cyberspace to millions of others.
Everyone here tends to think they are on the bleeding edge of political and current affairs discussion. This topic is leaving you collectively behind. It’s almost certainly the most important one of the last 75 years (if it turns out to be China or US tech) but may also be the most important story in human history.
It could be time travelling historians from the future coming back to find out how WWIII started?
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
That is what is odd, isn't it? Harry was doing a bang-up job, at least as much as the other Royals, and certainly more innovative with the Invicta Games and so on. But then he threw it all up in the air with this "woe is me" guff.
Sorry if that is unfair: I've not been following and do not really care if the Royal Family ends with Her Majesty or continues for another millennium.
The guy lost his mum at a young age whilst being in the public eye his whole life. Cutting him some slack whether you approve or disapprove of his actions seems the only reasonable way for the rest of us to behave.
So did his brother. Who has been most hurt by Harry abandoning him.
It takes two to tango. Harry seems to have been abandoned by his family too.
Overnight in America “60 Minutes”, the oldest and one of the most sober current affairs shows in the US, broadcast this segment on UAPs (UFOs). Maybe 10 million Americans would have watched it as it aired, and it will now be bouncing around cyberspace to millions of others.
Everyone here tends to think they are on the bleeding edge of political and current affairs discussion. This topic is leaving you collectively behind. It’s almost certainly the most important one of the last 75 years (if it turns out to be China or US tech) but may also be the most important story in human history.
Or it might be nothing much at all.
The idea that we're being gradually softened up for some great revelation seems a little silly. The grainy videos are probably just about it.
I can't really re-post that otherwise good CDC unmasking article on social media. I'm trying to tread sensitively with my younger friends and family who haven't yet been vaccinated.
The decision to jab the most vulnerable first was clearly correct (so Labour including the King of the North were utterly wrong as usual) but I'm still conscious of the need to be sensitive. I've many younger friends who would love to be able to holiday abroad this summer etc. etc.
The question of priorities is one for the inquiry (if nothing else then to keep it away from Boris's mistakes). By all means start with the most vulnerable but should priority have switched at some point to those most likely to spread the virus? Or those least able to work from home?
There was only ever one priority: the NHS. The biggest mistake was readying a huge supply of empty beds in the NHS - by sending people back to care homes. Whereupon, they returned back to hospital - along with their fellow residents - to be treated for Covid they had brought from hospital.
"Protect the NHS" also required "close the borders". This was the second biggest mistake. Quite who was lobbying the Government to keep them open I will be most curious to discover when the Report finally comes out. If I live that long...
I think the Government will probably be fine on both measures as it seems that scientific advice was the basis for both decisions. I'm not saying the Government was right, just that consistently SAGE bods seem to pop up saying closing the border would make no difference. Now I don't agree but I also think the Government should in general follow the scientific advice for want of anything better.
Interesting to hear that we have people on PB who, over the course of the pandemic, have disagreed with SAGE for being too cautious and for being not cautious enough.
Running all those models at home while getting on with life and posting on PB must be exhausting.
(Honourable exception for @MaxPB who does seem to have done all those things.)
I think the thing that stands out for me is that if I were being offered scientific advice I would have to have evidence that was non scientific to counter this. So if I thought it would be ruinous to the economy and therefore risk our ability to deliver healthcare services, or in this case perhaps it would prevent healthcare workers returning to the country from holiday. They would be political decisions. Just to say that the scientists are not to be believed undermines the many required messages from the Government.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
That is what is odd, isn't it? Harry was doing a bang-up job, at least as much as the other Royals, and certainly more innovative with the Invicta Games and so on. But then he threw it all up in the air with this "woe is me" guff.
Sorry if that is unfair: I've not been following and do not really care if the Royal Family ends with Her Majesty or continues for another millennium.
The guy lost his mum at a young age whilst being in the public eye his whole life. Cutting him some slack whether you approve or disapprove of his actions seems the only reasonable way for the rest of us to behave.
So did his brother. Who has been most hurt by Harry abandoning him.
Nah, its your Daily Mail reader who has been most hurt.
Overnight in America “60 Minutes”, the oldest and one of the most sober current affairs shows in the US, broadcast this segment on UAPs (UFOs). Maybe 10 million Americans would have watched it as it aired, and it will now be bouncing around cyberspace to millions of others.
Everyone here tends to think they are on the bleeding edge of political and current affairs discussion. This topic is leaving you collectively behind. It’s almost certainly the most important one of the last 75 years (if it turns out to be China or US tech) but may also be the most important story in human history.
Or it might be nothing much at all.
The idea that we're being gradually softened up for some great revelation seems a little silly. The grainy videos are probably just about it.
The grainy videos are always ‘it’. Despite the revolution in video/camera tech over the last 30 years (I mean how many smart phones are there in the U.K.?), there are no realistic photos of these supposed UFO’s, or indeed many other Fortean phenomena. I’m hugely interested in all things Fortean, but if you’d told me 30 years ago that we’d have all this kit, but the evidence would be as patchy as ever, I wouldn’t have believed it.
And the models aren't firm predictions, but "if it's transmissible to this degree, or that degree, or that degree, this is what happens," "if vaccine rollout speeds are this, or if they are that..." and "If vaccine efficacy is this, or if it is that..."
... and they also have "optimistic combination" and "pessimistic combination" answers.
And I'm a bit sick of the "either the vaccine works or it doesn't" line. It's either 100% or 0%, right? Or maybe it's neither? And the degree to which it is neither is one of the factors in the models (with varying assumptions, most of which are based on published studies).
And, of course, we have the "everyone vulnerable is already vaccinated" line, ignoring that even a 20-year-old in excellent health has a greater than 1% chance of hospitalisation if infected and unvaccinated, increasing from there (so about a 1% to 2% hospitalisation chance on average of all the 30 million currently left unvaccinated - so even without breakthrough infections, that'd be 300,000-600,000 possible hospitalisations).
The implications of the assumptions lead me to assume that the chances of things going very wrong are very low, as B1.617.2 is susceptible to vaccination. But the incessant "It's all a conspiracy!", "What are they thinking!?" (go and look?), "Well, the vaccines work or they don't, right?" lines do rather pall after a while.
I mean, yes, the media are bloody awful in amplifying the most dramatic possible "coulds" and "possiblys" in trying to imply that [INSERT_GROUP] are preacing disaster, but that doesn't mean we need to fall for it every bloody time.
The 30 million unvaccinated will be predominantly under 20 so at even less risk.
Plus millions of them will already have immunity from prior infection.
I think the answer to the conundrum is undoubtedly that the modelling is more reliable than the people on social media who barely understand the basic scientific concepts and would be severaly arithmetically handicapped even if they did understand the science.
The questions are: (1) will the vaccination programme take us to herd immunity, (2) if not, how many more people will need to be infected to get us to herd immunity, and (3) what percentage of those people will be hospitalised and what percentage will die?
We don't really have the information to do more than guess at the answers to those questions. But if the Indian variant really had an R0 of 5-6, and if AstraZeneca were only 50-60% effective against infection (and that is for the original version of the virus), as trials suggest, then the answer to (1) would be "no, nothing like". In that case, the key question would be how much more effective AstraZeneca was against death than against infection. That is even less certain, but probably the answer is more effective but not hugely more effective. In which case it's not at all surprising that the modelling is suggesting the possibility of a lot more deaths.
The vaccines appear to be hugely effective against serious illness.
You illustrate my point perfectly. The point is that the modellers will have looked at actual numbers backed up by scientific reasoning. And if they are respectable scientists they will have explained their reasoning and cited their evidence. People on social media just make assertions.
It is not true to say that modellers always look at actual numbers backed up by scientific reasoning. In fact most modelling usually starts off with very little numbers. It starts off with assumptions/variables which are plugged in to generate a range of scenarios. It is only over time when the initial wide range of projections can be overlaid with real numbers that the models can be refined, and the range of possible outcomes narrowed.
Most of the scientific comment i've seen on this Indian variant is still clearly at the initial stages - particularly where it comes to things like transmissibility. They have a wide range of possibilities but are not, as yet, ruling out the worse case scenarios. And for those who prefer caution they are arguing for this until that can be done.
Additionally it's wrong to assume that data modellers don't succumb to political pressure and fiddle with the data to get specific outcomes. The last doom model used a population immunity figure of 45% in May and 55% in June, at the time it was published in April we were already at 55%. It also used an input of just 60% efficacy against hospitalisation when the known efficacy is 80% with a single dose of either vaccine and ~95% with two doses of either vaccine and a cumulative effect of reducing them by over 99% with two doses. It also assumed no reduction in spread but we know that the combined reduction in spread with just one dose of either vaccine is 45%, which is expected to rise fairly significantly with a second dose, that study is ongoing.
As @Selebian and I have argued about a few times, these reasonable worst case scenarios exist to grab headlines and persuade politicians to take specific actions. They aren't actually anywhere near reasonable when it comes to modelling real outcomes.
If those estimates are being used now to to model the non-Indian variants for which we have plenty of data, then it's a disgrace.
I could defend playing around with pretty pessimistic estimates for the Indian variant/other new variants in the limited sense of "if the shit really hits the fan are we still ok for NHS load", paticularly if the answer is 'yes'. The value there is that if you've got someone wetting the bed over "what if the vaccines are only x% effective against Indian variant" then you cna run their silly numbers and say even in that unlikely case, we're still ok, so calm yourself down. I should add the caveat that the numbers you're quoting above still look like nonsense for the Indian variant, from what we know at present. If those numbers are anywhere near a core or even a 'realistic' worst case and were published in the last week or two then I think that was an error (how recent is the 'last doom model' - are we still on the last set of SAGE models?).
Such estimates should absolutely not be used to determine policy - if you work off a way-out-there worst case scenario then we'll delay unlocking, cause unnecessary economic carnage and kill a number of people in different ways (reduced money for all kinds of positive things down the line). A sensible worst case scenario (and what Max describes above certainly does not look like that, should form part of contingency - not driving unlocking rates, but the government should have a plan for what will happen under a reasonable worst case. As far as I can see, at present, that would look like planning for the chance of a bit of a spike in hospitalisations in unvaccinated groups and possible local problems where vaccine take-up is lower. That's it.
So, Max, although we've tangled on this a few times, I don't think we're that far apart. I'm not against running the nonsense numbers if they prove to those pushing the nonsense numbers that even in that case we can still cope (I know that you very firmly are). But we do need to try and make sure the media don't run those nonsense numbers in headlines. Anything that far out should be internal only or at least way down in an appendix, not in the main graphs.
I am pleased that you're now of the view that the modellers are succumbing to political pressure rather than the scientists applying pressure to the politicians to lockdown needlessly. I do think we need more scientists speaking out now that we don't need to panic about the new variants and that we're never getting back to the situation we had in January - that needs to be taken firmly off the table as a possibility. Among those that I know, there was a sense of impending doom in December. Now it varies from guarded to unbridled optimism.
When lockdown restrictions has come to be seen as the “go to” option/policy of first resort, rather than a desperate last resort measure because other mitigations won’t work (such as being able to rapidly scale up hospital capacity in response to spikes), then this presents a major problem. And I fear not just for the remainder of this pandemic but, perhaps even more importantly, those of the future.
Which means there needs to be a lot of educating of politicians and others over the purpose of modelling and how they should be used, or not used, in determining policy.
It might be an interesting exercise to consider how Govt’s might have responded to pandemics or near pandemics (not necessarily dangerous ones eg Swine flu) of the past, had they known then what they could get away with.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
That is what is odd, isn't it? Harry was doing a bang-up job, at least as much as the other Royals, and certainly more innovative with the Invicta Games and so on. But then he threw it all up in the air with this "woe is me" guff.
Sorry if that is unfair: I've not been following and do not really care if the Royal Family ends with Her Majesty or continues for another millennium.
The guy lost his mum at a young age whilst being in the public eye his whole life. Cutting him some slack whether you approve or disapprove of his actions seems the only reasonable way for the rest of us to behave.
So did his brother. Who has been most hurt by Harry abandoning him.
Nah, its your Daily Mail reader who has been most hurt.
So separated from the event by a few days I'm struggling to understand why people got so excited about Allison's cut price Jimmy Glass tribute act?
Liverpool fans absolutely adore Alisson Becker, we signed him for 65 million quid and most of us think we robbed Roma.
The moment he joined us it has been just one long love affair with that beautiful human being.
From his save against Napoli without which there would have been no number six, there's plenty of Liverpool fans who think Alisson Becker not Virgil Van Dijk was the the transformative signing for Klopp.
The heartbreak he has undergone this year with the death of his father made yesterday even more special. The post match interview had me to close to tears.
On a technical point every other goalie to score in the PL era and mostly before as well, like Glass, scored with their feet, Alisson scored with a magnificent header.
This Liverpool supporting journalist summed it up perfectly for all Liverpool fans.
Alisson Becker: really good-looking, really good at being a goalkeeper and, it turns out, really good at scoring goals.
I should hate him but, honestly, I'd sell my entire family for the chance to spend five minutes in his company.
The fact that it was an injury time winner against a Sam Allarydici side to keep Champions League qualification in our destiny was merely the cherry on the parfait.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
That is what is odd, isn't it? Harry was doing a bang-up job, at least as much as the other Royals, and certainly more innovative with the Invicta Games and so on. But then he threw it all up in the air with this "woe is me" guff.
Sorry if that is unfair: I've not been following and do not really care if the Royal Family ends with Her Majesty or continues for another millennium.
The guy lost his mum at a young age whilst being in the public eye his whole life. Cutting him some slack whether you approve or disapprove of his actions seems the only reasonable way for the rest of us to behave.
So did his brother. Who has been most hurt by Harry abandoning him.
At least his and wife’s interviews give us an insight into the hardships of being a titled multi-millionaire in the modern era.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
Whatever he may or may not have done for society at large, what he has done since has trashed his own reputation He has tried .. FOR MONEY AND LOTS OF IT to trash that of his family in public and its just unforgiveable. There are NO excuses.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
Whatever he may or may not have done for society at large, what he has done since has trashed his own reputation He has tried .. FOR MONEY AND LOTS OF IT to trash that of his family in public and its just unforgiveable. There are NO excuses.
Wait until you hear what Prince Andrew has been up to.
Should the SNP be worried about their little helpers taking over?
I thought in Yoonworld we were all indistinguishable, a ghastly melange of woke anti-Yookayness?
Since Unionism is now all about gaming the system, who is whose little helpers, or is it more a daisy chain kinda thing?
Will you be risking the journey to London on Friday, 18th June, for Royal Ascot England vs Scotland at Wembley?
Neither really my tasse de thé, but a long way off in any case. Currently Glasgow remains at Level 3 and I’m not supposed to be travelling to Largs let alone London.
Yet again Johnson has screwed this up. With our (belated) border controls and a rapid vaccination programme, we should be unlocking today without fear.
And yet we have India. Who absolutely could have been excluded from entry keeping their virulent new variant away from us.
Oh no, muses Liar. I am due to fly there to negotiate a new trade deal. So let's ignore the science for a few more weeks until the evidence is deafening and I am forced to act.
Again.
If this new pox starts ripping through the unvaccinated and he has to lock us down again it's entirely on him. What an utter utter wazzock
Just to clarify: if we don’t get a third wave and we don’t have to lockdown will you post on here praising his boldness in making the right judgement call?
No. We have the very real risk of this new Indian pox tearing up the unvaccinated. Had he acted properly that risk would not have been there.
But your alternative has significant economic costs.
He’s chosen a certain path that has economic benefit but more risk.
Surely if he is right he should be praised and if he is wrong criticised?
Otherwise I might have to doubt your evenhandedness
How did blocking arrivals from India - which he did belatedly - create "significant economic costs?". Would the extra 3 weeks which was needed to stop this strain have caused any scalable economic costs at all?
You are an intelligent man. Stop dancing on a pinhead making excuses for him.
ADDENDUM - your point about our need to all kneel and praise him. If I let a toddler play on the motorway and my judgement that it will not get splatted by a truck proves to be correct, should I be praised for choosing a certain path that whilst risky turned out to be correct...?
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
Whatever he may or may not have done for society at large, what he has done since has trashed his own reputation He has tried .. FOR MONEY AND LOTS OF IT to trash that of his family in public and its just unforgiveable. There are NO excuses.
Wait until you hear what Prince Andrew has been up to.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
Whatever he may or may not have done for society at large, what he has done since has trashed his own reputation He has tried .. FOR MONEY AND LOTS OF IT to trash that of his family in public and its just unforgiveable. There are NO excuses.
Wait until you hear what Prince Andrew has been up to.
Air Miles Andy is quite the parasite.
We are not talking about Prince Andrew but I don't recall him slagging off his family for money.
Harry has undoubtedly been through some rough times, I thought the recent public attack on his Dad was very undignified though.
Was is it an attack? Or something a lot of us have said, sending your kids to boarding school leads to quite the emotional baggage.
He was twelve when his mother died, I know I'll be in bits when my mother dies and I'm in my forties.
Let us not forget his mother had issues of her own, attempts at self harm/suicide thanks to his father's adultery, of course it is going to have an impact on Harry.
Regarding holidays abroad, has anyone looked at the requirements to re-enter the UK from almost everywhere? A negative test before you can get on the plane plus a further two private tests during your mandatory 10 days of self-isolation.
I know the holiday companies have been banging the drum to try and win some business, but how many people can afford a 2 week holiday and then 10 days holed up at home afterwards? The cheapest pox text package seems to be £99 a person, so that's a fair wodge if you are a family.
Finally, has anyone noted what the 3rd country status we insisted on "winning" means when entering countries like France and Spain? When travel restarts I can see a lot of people barred entry by not having the required paperwork / proof of funds / insurance.
Yes, I had plans to make a European road trip, as I usually do in May. Given how interesting it was travelling last September I did have a good look into whether it would still be possible to go, but decided that all the various and varying testing and quarantine and curfew requirements in place across Europe, coupled with the UK's amber restrictions which I sense won't disappear quite as quickly as some people are suggesting, made the whole thing a complex logistical challenge rather than a holiday break. I'm not travelling in the summer when it will surely be mayhem, so I shall sit here and watch holidaymakers descend from all over the country, and wait for September...
I need to go to see the client in Romania. It will have to wait until later in the summer when perhaps we will have lifted our requirements to self-isolate.
From what I can see of 3rd country immigration rules in France and Spain (and likely others) you can't just drive off and pick somewhere to stay as you go. Unless you can show them that you have a stack of cash to sustain you and a return ticket to exit their country.
Of course could be proven wrong, but I suspect a lot of these rules currently circulating around remainer social media reflect the law but not practical experience. They have the right to throw up all these barriers, but are unlikely to do so in practice. Certainly not to the extent that the letter of the laws imply.
I hope you are right. There are examples given of the laws being rigorously applied in the "remainer social media". Perhaps they are lying to smear good old Boris who absolutely knew that these laws applied to his preferred 3rd country status but also knew they would be unlikely to be applied in practice.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
Whatever he may or may not have done for society at large, what he has done since has trashed his own reputation He has tried .. FOR MONEY AND LOTS OF IT to trash that of his family in public and its just unforgiveable. There are NO excuses.
Wait until you hear what Prince Andrew has been up to.
Air Miles Andy is quite the parasite.
We are not talking about Prince Andrew but I don't recall him slagging off his family for money.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
Whatever he may or may not have done for society at large, what he has done since has trashed his own reputation He has tried .. FOR MONEY AND LOTS OF IT to trash that of his family in public and its just unforgiveable. There are NO excuses.
Wait until you hear what Prince Andrew has been up to.
Air Miles Andy is quite the parasite.
We are not talking about Prince Andrew but I don't recall him slagging off his family for money.
Associate of child sex trafficking ring vs I'll parent differently to my dad. Tough choice.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
That is what is odd, isn't it? Harry was doing a bang-up job, at least as much as the other Royals, and certainly more innovative with the Invicta Games and so on. But then he threw it all up in the air with this "woe is me" guff.
Sorry if that is unfair: I've not been following and do not really care if the Royal Family ends with Her Majesty or continues for another millennium.
The guy lost his mum at a young age whilst being in the public eye his whole life. Cutting him some slack whether you approve or disapprove of his actions seems the only reasonable way for the rest of us to behave.
So did his brother. Who has been most hurt by Harry abandoning him.
Nah, its your Daily Mail reader who has been most hurt.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
Whatever he may or may not have done for society at large, what he has done since has trashed his own reputation He has tried .. FOR MONEY AND LOTS OF IT to trash that of his family in public and its just unforgiveable. There are NO excuses.
Wait until you hear what Prince Andrew has been up to.
Air Miles Andy is quite the parasite.
We are not talking about Prince Andrew but I don't recall him slagging off his family for money.
He's damaged his family for money though.
Indeed he has but not in the same way
He did not deliberately set out to slag off his family as Harry has done. To me that is inexcusable.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
Except, America has no interest. They just want to hear him slam the Royal family.
It's almost as if, deep down, they fear they may have made the wrong call in getting rid of our royalty and replacing it by Presidents like Bush and Trump.
I think they undoubtedly did. Parliamentary, constitutional monarchies are far superior to presidential systems. Separating the roles of head of government and head of state is a triumph so people can oppose the government without being branded traitors.
In fairness to the tax-dodging traitors, they had only a few weeks in Philadelphia to design what it had taken us centuries to evolve, so you can see how they would make a half-baked mess of it.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
Whatever he may or may not have done for society at large, what he has done since has trashed his own reputation He has tried .. FOR MONEY AND LOTS OF IT to trash that of his family in public and its just unforgiveable. There are NO excuses.
Wait until you hear what Prince Andrew has been up to.
Air Miles Andy is quite the parasite.
We are not talking about Prince Andrew but I don't recall him slagging off his family for money.
He's damaged his family for money though.
Indeed he has but not in the same way
He did not deliberately set out to slag off his family as Harry has done. To me that is inexcusable.
Hazza and Megs will be inconsolable on hearing this. Let’s hope they’ll now change their ways.
On topic, May 17th be with you. I'm rooting for Cyclefree's daughter, and all the other small businesses that have struggled so much over the last 14 months.
Just want to wish @cyclefree 's daughter all the best in her reopening. Some of you will know that I was made redundant from a management role for a pub company during the pandemic, but I have seen first hand the great lengths the best publicans have gone to transform their premises into safe yet hospitable venues. I hope and pray for as limited disruption to trade as possible. I know when the pubs reopened last year two of the three that were closed due to a Covid issue in the first week were in my region with one that I had in my pubs and neither were related to poor management - one related to a staff member not following the rules, and the other was the track and trace working after someone developed symptoms after the visit but not spreading it to others in the pub
My simple message - if you don't feel right don't risk the livelihood of those working at the venue by still visiting.
On topic, May 17th be with you. I'm rooting for Cyclefree's daughter, and all the other small businesses that have struggled so much over the last 14 months.
There must be no turning back.
Arguably the latest models are so ludicrous that it is time to accept that their use as a tool in this pandemic has come to an end.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
Except, America has no interest. They just want to hear him slam the Royal family.
It's almost as if, deep down, they fear they may have made the wrong call in getting rid of our royalty and replacing it by Presidents like Bush and Trump.
I think they undoubtedly did. Parliamentary, constitutional monarchies are far superior to presidential systems. Separating the roles of head of government and head of state is a triumph so people can oppose the government without being branded traitors.
In fairness to the tax-dodging traitors, they had only a few weeks in Philadelphia to design what it had taken us centuries to evolve, so you can see how they would make a half-baked mess of it.
Hmm, surely the US Constitution was based in part on the UK Crown in Parliament as it was then? Anmd they didn't have future viewers in those days.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
I try not to judge, but as I dont like to share personal matters (except pseudonymously) I confess it does make me a bit judgey when others repeatedly do so. (That counts double for daddy issues - I don't like it in fiction or my brothers). I get that's likely unfair.
Being open can be a big part of mental health, but in seeking to help others, I assume, is it really necessary to talk about oneself to do so? It makes it easy for people to assume its about the speaker not the listener, and it makes me uncomfortable to feel like I'm part of someone's ongoing self therapy (obviously a revelatory moment or single documentary is not the same) or like I'm adding to their woes by knowing it, if part of their issues was too much public attention.
Mr. kle4, aye. Talking can help, or it can become wallowing in self-pity. Not always an easy line to see. The stiff upper lip isn't always a bad thing.
Likewise with trying to be there for someone and letting them know it's ok to talk to you. Overdo it and you can come across as pestering them over very sensitive subjects.
I just want to add my best wishes to Cyclefree’s daughter. I’m currently spending a week in Hope Cove, and planning to spend the afternoon in Dartmouth, so very much looking forward to reopening.
Jim Pickard @PickardJE instead of calling vaccine refuseniks “idiots” maybe ministers should be thinking up ways to persuade them to get the jab, up to and including state bribery...
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
That is what is odd, isn't it? Harry was doing a bang-up job, at least as much as the other Royals, and certainly more innovative with the Invicta Games and so on. But then he threw it all up in the air with this "woe is me" guff.
Sorry if that is unfair: I've not been following and do not really care if the Royal Family ends with Her Majesty or continues for another millennium.
The guy lost his mum at a young age whilst being in the public eye his whole life. Cutting him some slack whether you approve or disapprove of his actions seems the only reasonable way for the rest of us to behave.
So did his brother. Who has been most hurt by Harry abandoning him.
You are looking at the fraternal fall out through Rose tinted spectacles.
On topic, May 17th be with you. I'm rooting for Cyclefree's daughter, and all the other small businesses that have struggled so much over the last 14 months.
There must be no turning back.
Adam Brooks @EssexPR · 50m Good luck to cafe, restaurant, pub, theatre & hotel owners/staff or anyone who can now open their businesses inside today.
And the models aren't firm predictions, but "if it's transmissible to this degree, or that degree, or that degree, this is what happens," "if vaccine rollout speeds are this, or if they are that..." and "If vaccine efficacy is this, or if it is that..."
... and they also have "optimistic combination" and "pessimistic combination" answers.
And I'm a bit sick of the "either the vaccine works or it doesn't" line. It's either 100% or 0%, right? Or maybe it's neither? And the degree to which it is neither is one of the factors in the models (with varying assumptions, most of which are based on published studies).
And, of course, we have the "everyone vulnerable is already vaccinated" line, ignoring that even a 20-year-old in excellent health has a greater than 1% chance of hospitalisation if infected and unvaccinated, increasing from there (so about a 1% to 2% hospitalisation chance on average of all the 30 million currently left unvaccinated - so even without breakthrough infections, that'd be 300,000-600,000 possible hospitalisations).
The implications of the assumptions lead me to assume that the chances of things going very wrong are very low, as B1.617.2 is susceptible to vaccination. But the incessant "It's all a conspiracy!", "What are they thinking!?" (go and look?), "Well, the vaccines work or they don't, right?" lines do rather pall after a while.
I mean, yes, the media are bloody awful in amplifying the most dramatic possible "coulds" and "possiblys" in trying to imply that [INSERT_GROUP] are preacing disaster, but that doesn't mean we need to fall for it every bloody time.
The 30 million unvaccinated will be predominantly under 20 so at even less risk.
Plus millions of them will already have immunity from prior infection.
I think the answer to the conundrum is undoubtedly that the modelling is more reliable than the people on social media who barely understand the basic scientific concepts and would be severaly arithmetically handicapped even if they did understand the science.
The questions are: (1) will the vaccination programme take us to herd immunity, (2) if not, how many more people will need to be infected to get us to herd immunity, and (3) what percentage of those people will be hospitalised and what percentage will die?
We don't really have the information to do more than guess at the answers to those questions. But if the Indian variant really had an R0 of 5-6, and if AstraZeneca were only 50-60% effective against infection (and that is for the original version of the virus), as trials suggest, then the answer to (1) would be "no, nothing like". In that case, the key question would be how much more effective AstraZeneca was against death than against infection. That is even less certain, but probably the answer is more effective but not hugely more effective. In which case it's not at all surprising that the modelling is suggesting the possibility of a lot more deaths.
The vaccines appear to be hugely effective against serious illness.
You illustrate my point perfectly. The point is that the modellers will have looked at actual numbers backed up by scientific reasoning. And if they are respectable scientists they will have explained their reasoning and cited their evidence. People on social media just make assertions.
It is not true to say that modellers always look at actual numbers backed up by scientific reasoning. In fact most modelling usually starts off with very little numbers. It starts off with assumptions/variables which are plugged in to generate a range of scenarios. It is only over time when the initial wide range of projections can be overlaid with real numbers that the models can be refined, and the range of possible outcomes narrowed.
Most of the scientific comment i've seen on this Indian variant is still clearly at the initial stages - particularly where it comes to things like transmissibility. They have a wide range of possibilities but are not, as yet, ruling out the worse case scenarios. And for those who prefer caution they are arguing for this until that can be done.
Additionally it's wrong to assume that data modellers don't succumb to political pressure and fiddle with the data to get specific outcomes. The last doom model used a population immunity figure of 45% in May and 55% in June, at the time it was published in April we were already at 55%. It also used an input of just 60% efficacy against hospitalisation when the known efficacy is 80% with a single dose of either vaccine and ~95% with two doses of either vaccine and a cumulative effect of reducing them by over 99% with two doses. It also assumed no reduction in spread but we know that the combined reduction in spread with just one dose of either vaccine is 45%, which is expected to rise fairly significantly with a second dose, that study is ongoing.
As @Selebian and I have argued about a few times, these reasonable worst case scenarios exist to grab headlines and persuade politicians to take specific actions. They aren't actually anywhere near reasonable when it comes to modelling real outcomes.
If those estimates are being used now to to model the non-Indian variants for which we have plenty of data, then it's a disgrace.
I could defend playing around with pretty pessimistic estimates for the Indian variant/other new variants in the limited sense of "if the shit really hits the fan are we still ok for NHS load", paticularly if the answer is 'yes'. The value there is that if you've got someone wetting the bed over "what if the vaccines are only x% effective against Indian variant" then you cna run their silly numbers and say even in that unlikely case, we're still ok, so calm yourself down. I should add the caveat that the numbers you're quoting above still look like nonsense for the Indian variant, from what we know at present. If those numbers are anywhere near a core or even a 'realistic' worst case and were published in the last week or two then I think that was an error (how recent is the 'last doom model' - are we still on the last set of SAGE models?).
Such estimates should absolutely not be used to determine policy - if you work off a way-out-there worst case scenario then we'll delay unlocking, cause unnecessary economic carnage and kill a number of people in different ways (reduced money for all kinds of positive things down the line). A sensible worst case scenario (and what Max describes above certainly does not look like that, should form part of contingency - not driving unlocking rates, but the government should have a plan for what will happen under a reasonable worst case. As far as I can see, at present, that would look like planning for the chance of a bit of a spike in hospitalisations in unvaccinated groups and possible local problems where vaccine take-up is lower. That's it.
So, Max, although we've tangled on this a few times, I don't think we're that far apart. I'm not against running the nonsense numbers if they prove to those pushing the nonsense numbers that even in that case we can still cope (I know that you very firmly are). But we do need to try and make sure the media don't run those nonsense numbers in headlines. Anything that far out should be internal only or at least way down in an appendix, not in the main graphs.
I am pleased that you're now of the view that the modellers are succumbing to political pressure rather than the scientists applying pressure to the politicians to lockdown needlessly. I do think we need more scientists speaking out now that we don't need to panic about the new variants and that we're never getting back to the situation we had in January - that needs to be taken firmly off the table as a possibility. Among those that I know, there was a sense of impending doom in December. Now it varies from guarded to unbridled optimism.
When lockdown restrictions has come to be seen as the “go to” option/policy of first resort, rather than a desperate last resort measure because other mitigations won’t work (such as being able to rapidly scale up hospital capacity in response to spikes), then this presents a major problem. And I fear not just for the remainder of this pandemic but, perhaps even more importantly, those of the future.
Which means there needs to be a lot of educating of politicians and others over the purpose of modelling and how they should be used, or not used, in determining policy.
It might be an interesting exercise to consider how Govt’s might have responded to pandemics or near pandemics (not necessarily dangerous ones eg Swine flu) of the past, had they known then what they could get away with.
I agree. I also think there should be some agreement on how model output is presented. It's clear now that the media just pick the most pessimistic model and lead with that, even if the inputs are unlikely. We need to pick a unified way of referring to and presenting models in official reports that make it clear which are the most likely (and which the media should report, if any).
Leading with reports of unlikely/nonsense (delete according to personal preference!) worst case scenarios is not helpful, unless the aim really is to scare the public. Even if that is the aim, the government should pay heed to the story of Peter (he who cried wolf one too many times).
I do also think the scientists have a duty to speak out when they see their results being misused. It's not always easy to get a hearing, though. There's a BBC article from a few years back on a piece of work I was involved in which focuses on completely the wrong thing - headline numbers of people with a condition, where the definition is controversial, so the numbers are controversial, rather than direction of travel which was an increase and not controversial. We did contact the BBC and eventually got it modified, but long after it was off the front page.
Given how rare it is that the press cae about what we're doing at all, there is a reluctance sometimes to challenge them and correct wrong things that are written. People like Ferguson are however in a position to make themselves heard and, to be fair, I think he has been recently and in quite a positive way.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
That is what is odd, isn't it? Harry was doing a bang-up job, at least as much as the other Royals, and certainly more innovative with the Invicta Games and so on. But then he threw it all up in the air with this "woe is me" guff.
Sorry if that is unfair: I've not been following and do not really care if the Royal Family ends with Her Majesty or continues for another millennium.
The guy lost his mum at a young age whilst being in the public eye his whole life. Cutting him some slack whether you approve or disapprove of his actions seems the only reasonable way for the rest of us to behave.
No-one is forcing him to do his therapy sessions on TV.
No one is forcing posters to watch him or complain about him either. I know which I think less of.
That's certainly true, but it seems like he and the public are still in the same cycle. I hope all this is helping him, emotionally, (and he at least has a happy family now), as it doesnt seem like hes broken free of the cycle yet, nor wants to.
So long as he renains a public figure, and one sharing intimate personal details by choice now, people are going to watch and comment on it. Indeed, is it not his wish that people discuss what he is saying(albeit hed like different conclusions)?
I think it slightly odd that people are criticised for commenting on something the producer wants to be commented upon. Yes, people will be overly harsh, but apparently hes decided to take the rough with the smooth and overall thinks it worth it. Why moan about people moaning then? Can people not take a view on it? His talk makes me uncomfortable about openness, perhaps he wants that in the hope people like me admit that and open up?
Jim Pickard @PickardJE instead of calling vaccine refuseniks “idiots” maybe ministers should be thinking up ways to persuade them to get the jab, up to and including state bribery...
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
Whatever he may or may not have done for society at large, what he has done since has trashed his own reputation He has tried .. FOR MONEY AND LOTS OF IT to trash that of his family in public and its just unforgiveable. There are NO excuses.
Wait until you hear what Prince Andrew has been up to.
Air Miles Andy is quite the parasite.
We are not talking about Prince Andrew but I don't recall him slagging off his family for money.
He's damaged his family for money though.
Indeed he has but not in the same way
He did not deliberately set out to slag off his family as Harry has done. To me that is inexcusable.
I'm not commenting on which is worse, but just an observation: I have gossiped about several members of my extended family who have done, in my opinion, daft things in the past. I guess most people have. It is just the rest of the world is not interested. However I haven't done dodgy stuff for money.
So, although I don't care that much, I have a higher opinion of Harry for what he has done in his life than Andrew.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
Except, America has no interest. They just want to hear him slam the Royal family.
It's almost as if, deep down, they fear they may have made the wrong call in getting rid of our royalty and replacing it by Presidents like Bush and Trump.
I think they undoubtedly did. Parliamentary, constitutional monarchies are far superior to presidential systems. Separating the roles of head of government and head of state is a triumph so people can oppose the government without being branded traitors.
In fairness to the tax-dodging traitors, they had only a few weeks in Philadelphia to design what it had taken us centuries to evolve, so you can see how they would make a half-baked mess of it.
Hmm, surely the US Constitution was based in part on the UK Crown in Parliament as it was then? Anmd they didn't have future viewers in those days.
Jim Pickard @PickardJE instead of calling vaccine refuseniks “idiots” maybe ministers should be thinking up ways to persuade them to get the jab, up to and including state bribery...
One part of me says why should they benefit from their idiocy, but the other says, whatever it takes...
The government has been doing a number of very targeted initiatives to chip away at vaccine refusal. Hence the 94% take-up in the oldest (and earliest vaccinated groups).
The remaining hard core anti-vaxxers are pretty unreachable.
Jim Pickard @PickardJE instead of calling vaccine refuseniks “idiots” maybe ministers should be thinking up ways to persuade them to get the jab, up to and including state bribery...
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
That is what is odd, isn't it? Harry was doing a bang-up job, at least as much as the other Royals, and certainly more innovative with the Invicta Games and so on. But then he threw it all up in the air with this "woe is me" guff.
Sorry if that is unfair: I've not been following and do not really care if the Royal Family ends with Her Majesty or continues for another millennium.
The guy lost his mum at a young age whilst being in the public eye his whole life. Cutting him some slack whether you approve or disapprove of his actions seems the only reasonable way for the rest of us to behave.
No-one is forcing him to do his therapy sessions on TV.
No one is forcing posters to watch him or complain about him either. I know which I think less of.
That's certainly true, but it seems like he and the public are still in the same cycle. I hope all this is helping him, emotionally, (and he at least has a happy family now), as it doesnt seem like hes broken free of the cycle yet, nor wants to.
So long as he renains a public figure, and one sharing intimate personal details by choice now, people are going to watch and comment on it. Indeed, is it not his wish that people discuss what he is saying(albeit hed like different conclusions)?
I think it slightly odd that people are criticised for commenting on something the producer wants to be commented upon. Yes, people will be overly harsh, but apparently hes decided to take the rough with the smooth and overall thinks it worth it. Why moan about people moaning then? Can people not take a view on it?
Mostly because their disdain is way out of proportion with reality. They get rage with Harry and are meh with Andrew. One has improved the lives of thousands of badly injured soldiers, the other (at best) provides friendship to prolific known child sex traffickers.
Jim Pickard @PickardJE instead of calling vaccine refuseniks “idiots” maybe ministers should be thinking up ways to persuade them to get the jab, up to and including state bribery...
One part of me says why should they benefit from their idiocy, but the other says, whatever it takes...
You could make the £100 payment out to everyone that's been jabbed. I mean that's £5 Billion spent, but well 90% of adults have that cash in their pockets ready to spend at the pubs...
Must be a very, very quiet news day if we're back on Harry and Meghan.
Someone said what an entitled git, he thinks he has it hard he doesn't know what hardship is and then someone else *cough* Charles *cough* said what a brat and will no one think of the heir to the throne.
And then people piled in.
As none of us know the people involved it is about as interesting as speculating/pronouncing on Kim & Kanye.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
That is what is odd, isn't it? Harry was doing a bang-up job, at least as much as the other Royals, and certainly more innovative with the Invicta Games and so on. But then he threw it all up in the air with this "woe is me" guff.
Sorry if that is unfair: I've not been following and do not really care if the Royal Family ends with Her Majesty or continues for another millennium.
The guy lost his mum at a young age whilst being in the public eye his whole life. Cutting him some slack whether you approve or disapprove of his actions seems the only reasonable way for the rest of us to behave.
No-one is forcing him to do his therapy sessions on TV.
No one is forcing posters to watch him or complain about him either. I know which I think less of.
That's certainly true, but it seems like he and the public are still in the same cycle. I hope all this is helping him, emotionally, (and he at least has a happy family now), as it doesnt seem like hes broken free of the cycle yet, nor wants to.
So long as he renains a public figure, and one sharing intimate personal details by choice now, people are going to watch and comment on it. Indeed, is it not his wish that people discuss what he is saying(albeit hed like different conclusions)?
I think it slightly odd that people are criticised for commenting on something the producer wants to be commented upon. Yes, people will be overly harsh, but apparently hes decided to take the rough with the smooth and overall thinks it worth it. Why moan about people moaning then? Can people not take a view on it?
Mostly because their disdain is way out of proportion with reality. They get rage with Harry and are meh with Andrew. One has improved the lives of thousands of badly injured soldiers, the other (at best) provides friendship to prolific known child sex traffickers.
Whatever you say does not alter the fact that his behaviour has been disgraceful and is impossible to justify.
I am going to do my bit for the economy today by heading to the bookies and putting a few bob on the horse I bought my dad and wife (small) shares in then off to the alehouse with them to watch the racing and spend any winnings on significant amounts of Guinness. Go me. Creating Bojos economic miracle on my own.
I see Harry is milking it for all it is worth, this time blaming his father as a parent. He has no conception about what life really is like. He had easy street by comparison to most people . I had a tough time with my father but I haven't spent 50 yrs bleating about it as Harry seems destined to do.
Harry has what I believe is called his own lived experience. It is no more nor less valid than yours.
He’s now playing in the US celeb world.
He needs airtime.
But he’s nothing to say that people are interested in except slagging off his family.
It’s very sad for all of them, him especially
Yeah, its terrible he has so little to say about the world. Its not like he has given anything back to society, wouldnt it be great if he could have set up a charity event, perhaps for those in the armed services who suffered life changing injuries. If only he had done something like that, he would surely be free from criticism from the 99.9999% in society who have done less to help it change for the better.
That is what is odd, isn't it? Harry was doing a bang-up job, at least as much as the other Royals, and certainly more innovative with the Invicta Games and so on. But then he threw it all up in the air with this "woe is me" guff.
Sorry if that is unfair: I've not been following and do not really care if the Royal Family ends with Her Majesty or continues for another millennium.
The guy lost his mum at a young age whilst being in the public eye his whole life. Cutting him some slack whether you approve or disapprove of his actions seems the only reasonable way for the rest of us to behave.
No-one is forcing him to do his therapy sessions on TV.
No one is forcing posters to watch him or complain about him either. I know which I think less of.
That's certainly true, but it seems like he and the public are still in the same cycle. I hope all this is helping him, emotionally, (and he at least has a happy family now), as it doesnt seem like hes broken free of the cycle yet, nor wants to.
So long as he renains a public figure, and one sharing intimate personal details by choice now, people are going to watch and comment on it. Indeed, is it not his wish that people discuss what he is saying(albeit hed like different conclusions)?
I think it slightly odd that people are criticised for commenting on something the producer wants to be commented upon. Yes, people will be overly harsh, but apparently hes decided to take the rough with the smooth and overall thinks it worth it. Why moan about people moaning then? Can people not take a view on it?
Mostly because their disdain is way out of proportion with reality. They get rage with Harry and are meh with Andrew. One has improved the lives of thousands of badly injured soldiers, the other (at best) provides friendship to prolific known child sex traffickers.
Whatever you say does not alter the fact that his behaviour has been disgraceful and is impossible to justify.
What nonsense, obviously he justifies it himself. His view of the world is just as valid as yours, and he probably knows a damn sight more about his own world than you or I.
Overnight in America “60 Minutes”, the oldest and one of the most sober current affairs shows in the US, broadcast this segment on UAPs (UFOs). Maybe 10 million Americans would have watched it as it aired, and it will now be bouncing around cyberspace to millions of others.
Everyone here tends to think they are on the bleeding edge of political and current affairs discussion. This topic is leaving you collectively behind. It’s almost certainly the most important one of the last 75 years (if it turns out to be China or US tech) but may also be the most important story in human history.
Or it might be nothing much at all.
The idea that we're being gradually softened up for some great revelation seems a little silly. The grainy videos are probably just about it.
The grainy videos are always ‘it’. Despite the revolution in video/camera tech over the last 30 years (I mean how many smart phones are there in the U.K.?), there are no realistic photos of these supposed UFO’s, or indeed many other Fortean phenomena. I’m hugely interested in all things Fortean, but if you’d told me 30 years ago that we’d have all this kit, but the evidence would be as patchy as ever, I wouldn’t have believed it.
Yes, given the vast numbers of prosumer gear out there (and the numbers of amateurs simply buying professional gear), the chances that all these UFOs are evading someone with Canon L series glass is a bit unbelievable.
Jim Pickard @PickardJE instead of calling vaccine refuseniks “idiots” maybe ministers should be thinking up ways to persuade them to get the jab, up to and including state bribery...
One part of me says why should they benefit from their idiocy, but the other says, whatever it takes...
You could make the £100 payment out to everyone that's been jabbed. I mean that's £5 Billion spent, but well 90% of adults have that cash in their pockets ready to spend at the pubs...
£100 to all vaccinated.
£10,000 fine to those who aren't to help fund the £100.
The fine could be collected by adjusting their tax code.
Yet again Johnson has screwed this up. With our (belated) border controls and a rapid vaccination programme, we should be unlocking today without fear.
And yet we have India. Who absolutely could have been excluded from entry keeping their virulent new variant away from us.
Oh no, muses Liar. I am due to fly there to negotiate a new trade deal. So let's ignore the science for a few more weeks until the evidence is deafening and I am forced to act.
Again.
If this new pox starts ripping through the unvaccinated and he has to lock us down again it's entirely on him. What an utter utter wazzock
Just to clarify: if we don’t get a third wave and we don’t have to lockdown will you post on here praising his boldness in making the right judgement call?
No. We have the very real risk of this new Indian pox tearing up the unvaccinated. Had he acted properly that risk would not have been there.
But your alternative has significant economic costs.
He’s chosen a certain path that has economic benefit but more risk.
Surely if he is right he should be praised and if he is wrong criticised?
Otherwise I might have to doubt your evenhandedness
How did blocking arrivals from India - which he did belatedly - create "significant economic costs?". Would the extra 3 weeks which was needed to stop this strain have caused any scalable economic costs at all?
You are an intelligent man. Stop dancing on a pinhead making excuses for him.
ADDENDUM - your point about our need to all kneel and praise him. If I let a toddler play on the motorway and my judgement that it will not get splatted by a truck proves to be correct, should I be praised for choosing a certain path that whilst risky turned out to be correct...?
Why should he have gone against the scientific advice. SAGE bod in the Sundays yesterday said it made little difference. Are you qualified to know better? And my point earlier if a politician thinks one thing about the science (close borders) and a scientific panel says not what is the correct action?
Overnight in America “60 Minutes”, the oldest and one of the most sober current affairs shows in the US, broadcast this segment on UAPs (UFOs). Maybe 10 million Americans would have watched it as it aired, and it will now be bouncing around cyberspace to millions of others.
Everyone here tends to think they are on the bleeding edge of political and current affairs discussion. This topic is leaving you collectively behind. It’s almost certainly the most important one of the last 75 years (if it turns out to be China or US tech) but may also be the most important story in human history.
Or it might be nothing much at all.
The idea that we're being gradually softened up for some great revelation seems a little silly. The grainy videos are probably just about it.
The grainy videos are always ‘it’. Despite the revolution in video/camera tech over the last 30 years (I mean how many smart phones are there in the U.K.?), there are no realistic photos of these supposed UFO’s, or indeed many other Fortean phenomena. I’m hugely interested in all things Fortean, but if you’d told me 30 years ago that we’d have all this kit, but the evidence would be as patchy as ever, I wouldn’t have believed it.
Yes, given the vast numbers of prosumer gear out there (and the numbers of amateurs simply buying professional gear), the chances that all these UFOs are evading someone with Canon L series glass is a bit unbelievable.
Jim Pickard @PickardJE instead of calling vaccine refuseniks “idiots” maybe ministers should be thinking up ways to persuade them to get the jab, up to and including state bribery...
One part of me says why should they benefit from their idiocy, but the other says, whatever it takes...
You could make the £100 payment out to everyone that's been jabbed. I mean that's £5 Billion spent, but well 90% of adults have that cash in their pockets ready to spend at the pubs...
£100 to all vaccinated.
£10,000 fine to those who aren't to help fund the £100.
The fine could be collected by adjusting their tax code.
Make the fines a percentage of income.
At one point Recusancy Fines were a major source of government income.
Must be a very, very quiet news day if we're back on Harry and Meghan.
Someone said what an entitled git, he thinks he has it hard he doesn't know what hardship is and then someone else *cough* Charles *cough* said what a brat and will no one think of the heir to the throne.
And then people piled in.
As none of us know the people involved it is about as interesting as speculating/pronouncing on Kim & Kanye.
At least it's better than obsessing about trivia like aborted changes to football leagues. That really was the ultimate anything-but-epidemics story.
Jim Pickard @PickardJE instead of calling vaccine refuseniks “idiots” maybe ministers should be thinking up ways to persuade them to get the jab, up to and including state bribery...
One part of me says why should they benefit from their idiocy, but the other says, whatever it takes...
You could make the £100 payment out to everyone that's been jabbed. I mean that's £5 Billion spent, but well 90% of adults have that cash in their pockets ready to spend at the pubs...
£100 to all vaccinated.
£10,000 fine to those who aren't to help fund the £100.
The fine could be collected by adjusting their tax code.
Amazing.
This is where we are now. A govt fine if you decline to have something (created within the past 12 months) injected into your body. The last line of defence...gone.
Can you draw me a Venn diagram of people who criticise the Duke and Duchess of Sussex and those who don't criticise Prince Andrew.
. O
Well I don't like either of them. No matter what Harry has been through it is unedifying to air it in public to make money. But comparing him to Andrew is an insult to him - the man is obnoxious. You would think that Harry would want to avoid the whole powerful Americans thing though.
Jim Pickard @PickardJE instead of calling vaccine refuseniks “idiots” maybe ministers should be thinking up ways to persuade them to get the jab, up to and including state bribery...
One part of me says why should they benefit from their idiocy, but the other says, whatever it takes...
You could make the £100 payment out to everyone that's been jabbed. I mean that's £5 Billion spent, but well 90% of adults have that cash in their pockets ready to spend at the pubs...
£100 to all vaccinated.
£10,000 fine to those who aren't to help fund the £100.
The fine could be collected by adjusting their tax code.
Amazing.
This is where we are now. A govt fine if you decline to have something (created within the past 12 months) injected into your body. The last line of defence...gone.
Choices, consequences and all that.
Perhaps we should charge the unvaxxed, eligible and sick who have been heading into Bolton's hospitals instead ?
Jim Pickard @PickardJE instead of calling vaccine refuseniks “idiots” maybe ministers should be thinking up ways to persuade them to get the jab, up to and including state bribery...
One part of me says why should they benefit from their idiocy, but the other says, whatever it takes...
You could make the £100 payment out to everyone that's been jabbed. I mean that's £5 Billion spent, but well 90% of adults have that cash in their pockets ready to spend at the pubs...
£100 to all vaccinated.
£10,000 fine to those who aren't to help fund the £100.
The fine could be collected by adjusting their tax code.
Amazing.
This is where we are now. A govt fine if you decline to have something (created within the past 12 months) injected into your body. The last line of defence...gone.
Choices, consequences and all that.
Perhaps we should charge the unvaxxed, eligible and sick who have been heading into Bolton's hospitals instead ?
Good idea. Then we can set out a charging sheet for mountaineers, three day eventers, motorcyclists, cyclists who don't wear a helmet, and those people head down walking along the road texting.
Jim Pickard @PickardJE instead of calling vaccine refuseniks “idiots” maybe ministers should be thinking up ways to persuade them to get the jab, up to and including state bribery...
One part of me says why should they benefit from their idiocy, but the other says, whatever it takes...
You could make the £100 payment out to everyone that's been jabbed. I mean that's £5 Billion spent, but well 90% of adults have that cash in their pockets ready to spend at the pubs...
£100 to all vaccinated.
£10,000 fine to those who aren't to help fund the £100.
The fine could be collected by adjusting their tax code.
Amazing.
This is where we are now. A govt fine if you decline to have something (created within the past 12 months) injected into your body. The last line of defence...gone.
I'd be quite happy to let the anti-vaxxers die as an alternative.
But there's no way I'm going to support any restriction to my life in order to pander to them.
Jim Pickard @PickardJE instead of calling vaccine refuseniks “idiots” maybe ministers should be thinking up ways to persuade them to get the jab, up to and including state bribery...
One part of me says why should they benefit from their idiocy, but the other says, whatever it takes...
You could make the £100 payment out to everyone that's been jabbed. I mean that's £5 Billion spent, but well 90% of adults have that cash in their pockets ready to spend at the pubs...
£100 to all vaccinated.
£10,000 fine to those who aren't to help fund the £100.
The fine could be collected by adjusting their tax code.
Amazing.
This is where we are now. A govt fine if you decline to have something (created within the past 12 months) injected into your body. The last line of defence...gone.
Choices, consequences and all that.
Perhaps we should charge the unvaxxed and eligible who have been heading into Bolton's hospitals instead ?
Surely the consequence is deprioritisation for NHS treatment for COVID. I think once every eligible person has been offered both vaccine doses people who have refused should be stuck at the back of the queue for COVID treatment if they get it and they definitely shouldn't block off other treatments such as cancer or strokes where people have been dying unnecessarily over the last year.
Jim Pickard @PickardJE instead of calling vaccine refuseniks “idiots” maybe ministers should be thinking up ways to persuade them to get the jab, up to and including state bribery...
One part of me says why should they benefit from their idiocy, but the other says, whatever it takes...
You could make the £100 payment out to everyone that's been jabbed. I mean that's £5 Billion spent, but well 90% of adults have that cash in their pockets ready to spend at the pubs...
£100 to all vaccinated.
£10,000 fine to those who aren't to help fund the £100.
The fine could be collected by adjusting their tax code.
Amazing.
This is where we are now. A govt fine if you decline to have something (created within the past 12 months) injected into your body. The last line of defence...gone.
I'd be quite happy to let the anti-vaxxers die as an alternative.
But there's no way I'm going to support any restriction to my life in order to pander to them.
Then make your views known to the government. That's how this all works.
Overnight in America “60 Minutes”, the oldest and one of the most sober current affairs shows in the US, broadcast this segment on UAPs (UFOs). Maybe 10 million Americans would have watched it as it aired, and it will now be bouncing around cyberspace to millions of others.
Everyone here tends to think they are on the bleeding edge of political and current affairs discussion. This topic is leaving you collectively behind. It’s almost certainly the most important one of the last 75 years (if it turns out to be China or US tech) but may also be the most important story in human history.
Or it might be nothing much at all.
The idea that we're being gradually softened up for some great revelation seems a little silly. The grainy videos are probably just about it.
The grainy videos are always ‘it’. Despite the revolution in video/camera tech over the last 30 years (I mean how many smart phones are there in the U.K.?), there are no realistic photos of these supposed UFO’s, or indeed many other Fortean phenomena. I’m hugely interested in all things Fortean, but if you’d told me 30 years ago that we’d have all this kit, but the evidence would be as patchy as ever, I wouldn’t have believed it.
Yes, given the vast numbers of prosumer gear out there (and the numbers of amateurs simply buying professional gear), the chances that all these UFOs are evading someone with Canon L series glass is a bit unbelievable.
Overnight in America “60 Minutes”, the oldest and one of the most sober current affairs shows in the US, broadcast this segment on UAPs (UFOs). Maybe 10 million Americans would have watched it as it aired, and it will now be bouncing around cyberspace to millions of others.
Everyone here tends to think they are on the bleeding edge of political and current affairs discussion. This topic is leaving you collectively behind. It’s almost certainly the most important one of the last 75 years (if it turns out to be China or US tech) but may also be the most important story in human history.
Or it might be nothing much at all.
The idea that we're being gradually softened up for some great revelation seems a little silly. The grainy videos are probably just about it.
The grainy videos are always ‘it’. Despite the revolution in video/camera tech over the last 30 years (I mean how many smart phones are there in the U.K.?), there are no realistic photos of these supposed UFO’s, or indeed many other Fortean phenomena. I’m hugely interested in all things Fortean, but if you’d told me 30 years ago that we’d have all this kit, but the evidence would be as patchy as ever, I wouldn’t have believed it.
Yes, given the vast numbers of prosumer gear out there (and the numbers of amateurs simply buying professional gear), the chances that all these UFOs are evading someone with Canon L series glass is a bit unbelievable.
"prosumer".
All the gear, no idea. Bit like Dura Ace.
Naughty.
Still waiting, btw PB, for advice on an electric toothbrush.
Overnight in America “60 Minutes”, the oldest and one of the most sober current affairs shows in the US, broadcast this segment on UAPs (UFOs). Maybe 10 million Americans would have watched it as it aired, and it will now be bouncing around cyberspace to millions of others.
Everyone here tends to think they are on the bleeding edge of political and current affairs discussion. This topic is leaving you collectively behind. It’s almost certainly the most important one of the last 75 years (if it turns out to be China or US tech) but may also be the most important story in human history.
Or it might be nothing much at all.
The idea that we're being gradually softened up for some great revelation seems a little silly. The grainy videos are probably just about it.
The grainy videos are always ‘it’. Despite the revolution in video/camera tech over the last 30 years (I mean how many smart phones are there in the U.K.?), there are no realistic photos of these supposed UFO’s, or indeed many other Fortean phenomena. I’m hugely interested in all things Fortean, but if you’d told me 30 years ago that we’d have all this kit, but the evidence would be as patchy as ever, I wouldn’t have believed it.
Yes, given the vast numbers of prosumer gear out there (and the numbers of amateurs simply buying professional gear), the chances that all these UFOs are evading someone with Canon L series glass is a bit unbelievable.
"prosumer".
All the gear, no idea. Bit like Dura Ace.
Naughty.
Still waiting, btw PB, for advice on an electric toothbrush.
Overnight in America “60 Minutes”, the oldest and one of the most sober current affairs shows in the US, broadcast this segment on UAPs (UFOs). Maybe 10 million Americans would have watched it as it aired, and it will now be bouncing around cyberspace to millions of others.
Everyone here tends to think they are on the bleeding edge of political and current affairs discussion. This topic is leaving you collectively behind. It’s almost certainly the most important one of the last 75 years (if it turns out to be China or US tech) but may also be the most important story in human history.
Or it might be nothing much at all.
The idea that we're being gradually softened up for some great revelation seems a little silly. The grainy videos are probably just about it.
The grainy videos are always ‘it’. Despite the revolution in video/camera tech over the last 30 years (I mean how many smart phones are there in the U.K.?), there are no realistic photos of these supposed UFO’s, or indeed many other Fortean phenomena. I’m hugely interested in all things Fortean, but if you’d told me 30 years ago that we’d have all this kit, but the evidence would be as patchy as ever, I wouldn’t have believed it.
Yes, given the vast numbers of prosumer gear out there (and the numbers of amateurs simply buying professional gear), the chances that all these UFOs are evading someone with Canon L series glass is a bit unbelievable.
"prosumer".
All the gear, no idea. Bit like Dura Ace.
Naughty.
Still waiting, btw PB, for advice on an electric toothbrush.
I think refusing a vaccine for a potentially lethal disease that's caused a pandemic is stupid. But stupidity should not be a punishable offence.
In which case the rest of the country should not be punished for their stupidity.
This is illustrative. You are giving up your agency in these things. As far as the government is concerned, it has worked - whether by luck or design.
You are so beholden to whatever the government dictates that you have forgotten that you have the ability to change policy.
Not just you of course, but many, many people. This is where we are now. Don't like a policy? Find a scapegoat to blame. In this case people who are reluctant to have injected a brand spanking new vaccine into their bodies for reasons that they believe are perfectly valid and may indeed be. Ask a 28-yr old pregnant woman, for example.
Mr. Max, when I was in my mid-teens I had to go to children's A&E because I'd lost all feeling in my hands, which had turned an exciting purple hue.
This turned out to be quite nice, as the nurse was fantastically attractive and she, and the doctor, were delighted to have a patient old enough to actually have a conversation with.
It was a bit weird, actually, as I ended up alone with a Chinese doctor (who wore a stylish silk dress for reasons that remain unknown) as she jabbed my toes with a needle to see if I could feel it.
Overnight in America “60 Minutes”, the oldest and one of the most sober current affairs shows in the US, broadcast this segment on UAPs (UFOs). Maybe 10 million Americans would have watched it as it aired, and it will now be bouncing around cyberspace to millions of others.
Everyone here tends to think they are on the bleeding edge of political and current affairs discussion. This topic is leaving you collectively behind. It’s almost certainly the most important one of the last 75 years (if it turns out to be China or US tech) but may also be the most important story in human history.
Or it might be nothing much at all.
The idea that we're being gradually softened up for some great revelation seems a little silly. The grainy videos are probably just about it.
The grainy videos are always ‘it’. Despite the revolution in video/camera tech over the last 30 years (I mean how many smart phones are there in the U.K.?), there are no realistic photos of these supposed UFO’s, or indeed many other Fortean phenomena. I’m hugely interested in all things Fortean, but if you’d told me 30 years ago that we’d have all this kit, but the evidence would be as patchy as ever, I wouldn’t have believed it.
Yes, given the vast numbers of prosumer gear out there (and the numbers of amateurs simply buying professional gear), the chances that all these UFOs are evading someone with Canon L series glass is a bit unbelievable.
"prosumer".
All the gear, no idea. Bit like Dura Ace.
Naughty.
Still waiting, btw PB, for advice on an electric toothbrush.
Comments
But as England enters a new age of political polarisation, those endless lifestyle articles about whichever places beyond the capital are now held to have the correct mixture of artisan cafes and organic food markets also suggest other social changes that are much narrower, and introverted: what some people call “clustering”.
In a way, the whole citizen of nowhere stuff is back to front. These people very much do care about where they live. I live in Woking, but only because its where I've always lived (except for university). But if could be anywhere in the London commuter belt to be honest. It really wouldn't bother me.
A friend works for a government agency based in Swindon. When he got the job I congratulated him as I thought a civil servant wage would allow for a pretty decent standard of living there.
Anyway, he now lives with his girlfriend in Bristol and commutes to work in Swindon.
This, of course, is great news for the Tories.
I could defend playing around with pretty pessimistic estimates for the Indian variant/other new variants in the limited sense of "if the shit really hits the fan are we still ok for NHS load", paticularly if the answer is 'yes'. The value there is that if you've got someone wetting the bed over "what if the vaccines are only x% effective against Indian variant" then you cna run their silly numbers and say even in that unlikely case, we're still ok, so calm yourself down. I should add the caveat that the numbers you're quoting above still look like nonsense for the Indian variant, from what we know at present. If those numbers are anywhere near a core or even a 'realistic' worst case and were published in the last week or two then I think that was an error (how recent is the 'last doom model' - are we still on the last set of SAGE models?).
Such estimates should absolutely not be used to determine policy - if you work off a way-out-there worst case scenario then we'll delay unlocking, cause unnecessary economic carnage and kill a number of people in different ways (reduced money for all kinds of positive things down the line). A sensible worst case scenario (and what Max describes above certainly does not look like that, should form part of contingency - not driving unlocking rates, but the government should have a plan for what will happen under a reasonable worst case. As far as I can see, at present, that would look like planning for the chance of a bit of a spike in hospitalisations in unvaccinated groups and possible local problems where vaccine take-up is lower. That's it.
So, Max, although we've tangled on this a few times, I don't think we're that far apart. I'm not against running the nonsense numbers if they prove to those pushing the nonsense numbers that even in that case we can still cope (I know that you very firmly are). But we do need to try and make sure the media don't run those nonsense numbers in headlines. Anything that far out should be internal only or at least way down in an appendix, not in the main graphs.
I am pleased that you're now of the view that the modellers are succumbing to political pressure rather than the scientists applying pressure to the politicians to lockdown needlessly. I do think we need more scientists speaking out now that we don't need to panic about the new variants and that we're never getting back to the situation we had in January - that needs to be taken firmly off the table as a possibility. Among those that I know, there was a sense of impending doom in December. Now it varies from guarded to unbridled optimism.
(Two in my family.)
The idea that we're being gradually softened up for some great revelation seems a little silly. The grainy videos are probably just about it.
Which means there needs to be a lot of educating of politicians and others over the purpose of modelling and how they should be used, or not used, in determining policy.
It might be an interesting exercise to consider how Govt’s might have responded to pandemics or near pandemics (not necessarily dangerous ones eg Swine flu) of the past, had they known then what they could get away with.
The moment he joined us it has been just one long love affair with that beautiful human being.
From his save against Napoli without which there would have been no number six, there's plenty of Liverpool fans who think Alisson Becker not Virgil Van Dijk was the the transformative signing for Klopp.
The heartbreak he has undergone this year with the death of his father made yesterday even more special. The post match interview had me to close to tears.
On a technical point every other goalie to score in the PL era and mostly before as well, like Glass, scored with their feet, Alisson scored with a magnificent header.
This Liverpool supporting journalist summed it up perfectly for all Liverpool fans.
Alisson Becker: really good-looking, really good at being a goalkeeper and, it turns out, really good at scoring goals.
I should hate him but, honestly, I'd sell my entire family for the chance to spend five minutes in his company.
https://twitter.com/SachinNakrani/status/1393983813366255620
Honestly my reaction was similar to this.
https://twitter.com/TheRedmenTV/status/1393990347462692865
The fact that it was an injury time winner against a Sam Allarydici side to keep Champions League qualification in our destiny was merely the cherry on the parfait.
Air Miles Andy is quite the parasite.
You are an intelligent man. Stop dancing on a pinhead making excuses for him.
ADDENDUM - your point about our need to all kneel and praise him. If I let a toddler play on the motorway and my judgement that it will not get splatted by a truck proves to be correct, should I be praised for choosing a certain path that whilst risky turned out to be correct...?
He was twelve when his mother died, I know I'll be in bits when my mother dies and I'm in my forties.
Let us not forget his mother had issues of her own, attempts at self harm/suicide thanks to his father's adultery, of course it is going to have an impact on Harry.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57136140
Are you going to test yourself twice a week?
Can you draw me a Venn diagram of people who criticise the Duke and Duchess of Sussex and those who don't criticise Prince Andrew.
Especially when they have a big dog.
O
He did not deliberately set out to slag off his family as Harry has done. To me that is inexcusable.
In fairness to the tax-dodging traitors, they had only a few weeks in Philadelphia to design what it had taken us centuries to evolve, so you can see how they would make a half-baked mess of it.
There must be no turning back.
My simple message - if you don't feel right don't risk the livelihood of those working at the venue by still visiting.
He's adjusting to US culture now. What they call sharing we call oversharing, and not cricket.
Being open can be a big part of mental health, but in seeking to help others, I assume, is it really necessary to talk about oneself to do so? It makes it easy for people to assume its about the speaker not the listener, and it makes me uncomfortable to feel like I'm part of someone's ongoing self therapy (obviously a revelatory moment or single documentary is not the same) or like I'm adding to their woes by knowing it, if part of their issues was too much public attention.
https://youtu.be/KF2H-2faBKQ
Mr. kle4, aye. Talking can help, or it can become wallowing in self-pity. Not always an easy line to see. The stiff upper lip isn't always a bad thing.
Likewise with trying to be there for someone and letting them know it's ok to talk to you. Overdo it and you can come across as pestering them over very sensitive subjects.
Gratulerer med dagen.
Ikke sant?
Jim Pickard
@PickardJE
instead of calling vaccine refuseniks “idiots” maybe ministers should be thinking up ways to persuade them to get the jab, up to and including state bribery...
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1394185134778245120
pay them to be jabbed?
Adam Brooks
@EssexPR
·
50m
Good luck to cafe, restaurant, pub, theatre & hotel owners/staff or anyone who can now open their businesses inside today.
#HaveAGoodOne
Leading with reports of unlikely/nonsense (delete according to personal preference!) worst case scenarios is not helpful, unless the aim really is to scare the public. Even if that is the aim, the government should pay heed to the story of Peter (he who cried wolf one too many times).
I do also think the scientists have a duty to speak out when they see their results being misused. It's not always easy to get a hearing, though. There's a BBC article from a few years back on a piece of work I was involved in which focuses on completely the wrong thing - headline numbers of people with a condition, where the definition is controversial, so the numbers are controversial, rather than direction of travel which was an increase and not controversial. We did contact the BBC and eventually got it modified, but long after it was off the front page.
Given how rare it is that the press cae about what we're doing at all, there is a reluctance sometimes to challenge them and correct wrong things that are written. People like Ferguson are however in a position to make themselves heard and, to be fair, I think he has been recently and in quite a positive way.
So long as he renains a public figure, and one sharing intimate personal details by choice now, people are going to watch and comment on it. Indeed, is it not his wish that people discuss what he is saying(albeit hed like different conclusions)?
I think it slightly odd that people are criticised for commenting on something the producer wants to be commented upon. Yes, people will be overly harsh, but apparently hes decided to take the rough with the smooth and overall thinks it worth it. Why moan about people moaning then? Can people not take a view on it? His talk makes me uncomfortable about openness, perhaps he wants that in the hope people like me admit that and open up?
So, although I don't care that much, I have a higher opinion of Harry for what he has done in his life than Andrew.
The remaining hard core anti-vaxxers are pretty unreachable.
For example I'm sure we could get @Dura to have a vaccine if we offered him weekend use of a Dacia Duster.
Absolutely. Good luck to @Cyclefree's daughter and all @Cyclefree's daughters around the country.
I was invited for dinner at a friend's on Friday. 10 of us, five families. Illegal for another five weeks.
I mean that's £5 Billion spent, but well 90% of adults have that cash in their pockets ready to spend at the pubs...
And then people piled in.
As none of us know the people involved it is about as interesting as speculating/pronouncing on Kim & Kanye.
Go me. Creating Bojos economic miracle on my own.
£10,000 fine to those who aren't to help fund the £100.
The fine could be collected by adjusting their tax code.
And lets get rid of the remaining restrictions on Jun 21st. No ifs, no buts. No covid rules!
At one point Recusancy Fines were a major source of government income.
This is where we are now. A govt fine if you decline to have something (created within the past 12 months) injected into your body. The last line of defence...gone.
And especially wrt prosumption choices.
I need to get a new electric toothbrush. I see they range from £500 to £40. Advice please.
(And no, Sean, thanks I don't need it for that.)
Perhaps we should charge the unvaxxed, eligible and sick who have been heading into Bolton's hospitals instead ?
I think refusing a vaccine for a potentially lethal disease that's caused a pandemic is stupid. But stupidity should not be a punishable offence.
But there's no way I'm going to support any restriction to my life in order to pander to them.
Still waiting, btw PB, for advice on an electric toothbrush.
Asked what kind of timeframes second doses are and the very, very attractive nurse said 4-6 weeks at the moment for Pfizer.
(but some is member-walled)
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Oral-B-CrossAction-Toothbrush-Rechargeable-Connected/dp/B01DY36K5I/
I have one of these, it does the job.
You are so beholden to whatever the government dictates that you have forgotten that you have the ability to change policy.
Not just you of course, but many, many people. This is where we are now. Don't like a policy? Find a scapegoat to blame. In this case people who are reluctant to have injected a brand spanking new vaccine into their bodies for reasons that they believe are perfectly valid and may indeed be. Ask a 28-yr old pregnant woman, for example.
This turned out to be quite nice, as the nurse was fantastically attractive and she, and the doctor, were delighted to have a patient old enough to actually have a conversation with.
It was a bit weird, actually, as I ended up alone with a Chinese doctor (who wore a stylish silk dress for reasons that remain unknown) as she jabbed my toes with a needle to see if I could feel it.
Surely someone on PB has a recommendation. The top two in that list you sent me are, respectively, £400 and £29.99!