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Betting opens for the May 6th locals on the BBC’s Projected National Shares for CON and LAB – politi

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  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    edited April 2021
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Well after some prodding and calls I finally got a phone call offering me a jab yesterday. It is to be given at the vaccination centre so I think it is genuine. 3.50 next Monday. It's a relief.

    Have you sorted out with NHS Scotland whether you exist or not? And are on a GP's list?
    I am assuming that I do exist because they were able to phone me. And I can post on PB as well. I don't have enough imagination to make all this up.
    Wait until you wake up from this dream and find that you are in fact a Cornish flint knapper and that PB doesn't exist.
    Arrgh! I think I'd have to invent it. In all seriousness the banter on here has been a great help these last few months.
    I was reading the last few comments on the previous thread. Many PB posters (a robust bunch or we wouldn't be on here) suffering from anxiety and depression. This is horrendous.

    The disease is horrendous also but the govt responding to the current situation - which means some, all, or none of it may be justified - has broken a large number of people such that when we are told we will be allowed to sit on a park bench at some unspecified time in the future, there are tears of joy and gratitude. Extraordinary.

    And it has been clapped (literally) and rewarded in the polls the whole time.
    Well, the clapping was for the NHS not for the liberty clipping. But, yes, that was a tough read, some of that on PT. People struggling. I am a bit too tbh. Nothing terrible but feeling "grey" and lethargic. Snap out if it, kinabalu!

    For me, next week is key. Outdoor pubs, indoor leisure, all shops.

    Haircut, swimming in heated indoor pool, bit of boxing in the gym, beers outside in a weak sun. Huge.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298

    Talking of tv, if you are looking for something that is solid watch, City on a Hill....

    Really enjoying "This is Us" on amazon prime at the moment, someone recommended it on here. Refreshingly different to most good box sets.
    It's fantastic. They are drip feeding the latest series out now.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2021

    Mr. Urquhart, I hardly ever watch preamble and aftermath stuff with F1 (doesn't interest me) but caught some last season by mistake. The self-righteous presenter bibbled about making no apology for talking about BLM nonsense.

    Well, he should've. I watch F1 for sport, not a political lecture, especially one written by an overtly Marxist cabal of race-baiting cretins.

    Loads of the Sky Sports output has been along similar lines e.g. Putting the BLM logo on scordcard of the cricket.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,081
    DavidL said:

    Talking of tv, if you are looking for something that is solid watch, City on a Hill....

    Quite enjoyed the first few episodes but (like a lot of stuff nowadays) it tailed off for me. Owes a helluva a lot to George V. Higgins superior chronicling of Boston low life and legal system, one of his early novels was even called A City on a Hill.
    George V Higgins is a superb writer. The books written as if they were entirely conversations about what had happened seen from different perspectives were just superb. Never really read anything quite like them. May even dig them out again.
    Yep, he was one of my favourites when I had favourite writers. Seems to have fallen out of the public consciousness a bit nowadays. The Friends of Eddy Coyle is one of those relatively rare things, a great film of a great book.
  • Options

    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Gavin Williamson, Nick Gibb and every civil servant at the DfE are traitorous, lying, bullying, pig ignorant c-bombs who hate teachers and children part 124a:

    Secondary school pupils to keep wearing masks after Easter
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-56651135

    These people just do not live in the real world. Masks are not merely horrible to wear, they are frequently used by children as playthings, spreading any virus over their hands and their desks, they make it impossible for both deaf children and deaf teachers to function effectively, and finally they are used for prolonged periods and not washed rather than for brief instances and cleaned/disposed of as they are designed to be. Moreover, they allow disruptive children to talk and mutter with impunity, creating constant disruption which makes it impossible to maintain an atmosphere of calm. Goodness knows how we will manage these exams we’re still being forced to do.

    They are also fluent liars. As evidenced by the fact they claimed pupil behaviour was better under Covid (a lie) that their new teaching framework will somehow reduce violence and assaults on staff (another lie) and that only 0.2% of children in school had tested positive for Covid (another lie) and that there would be no exams this year (yet another lie, because they’re still going ahead, it’s just that they are being marked by a different process).

    And then they wonder why every teacher - and I mean every teacher - is making plans to quit the profession in the next two years. That’s going to be rather expensive in itself given that those aged 55 or over will simply take retirement.

    They are just utter, vile scum.

    Why don’t you say what you really think of them...😄
    Because I’d either be prosecuted for incitement to murder, or worse, get banned from PB.
    We cannot have you banned but we do understand the nuance of your comments and with Williamson, it sounds moderate
    When Williamson is elevated to Conservative Prime Minister you will be singing his praises BigG.
    Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes.
    Noooooooo

    And I would resign my membership and become politically homeless

    And you can hold me to that
    ...and rejoin when the dust settles.
    Never ever under Williamson
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Well after some prodding and calls I finally got a phone call offering me a jab yesterday. It is to be given at the vaccination centre so I think it is genuine. 3.50 next Monday. It's a relief.

    Have you sorted out with NHS Scotland whether you exist or not? And are on a GP's list?
    I am assuming that I do exist because they were able to phone me. And I can post on PB as well. I don't have enough imagination to make all this up.
    Wait until you wake up from this dream and find that you are in fact a Cornish flint knapper and that PB doesn't exist.
    Arrgh! I think I'd have to invent it. In all seriousness the banter on here has been a great help these last few months.
    I was reading the last few comments on the previous thread. Many PB posters (a robust bunch or we wouldn't be on here) suffering from anxiety and depression. This is horrendous.

    The disease is horrendous also but the govt responding to the current situation - which means some, all, or none of it may be justified - has broken a large number of people such that when we are told we will be allowed to sit on a park bench at some unspecified time in the future, there are tears of joy and gratitude. Extraordinary.

    And it has been clapped (literally) and rewarded in the polls the whole time.
    Well, the clapping was for the NHS not for the liberty clipping. But, yes, that was a tough read, some of that on PT. People struggling. I am a bit too tbh. Nothing terrible but feeling "grey" and lethargic. Snap out if it, kinabalu!

    For me, next week is key. Outdoor pubs, indoor leisure, all shops.

    Haircut, swimming in heated indoor pool, bit of boxing in the gym, beers outside in a weak sun. Huge.
    Enjoy it all.

    As for the clapping, it was to shape the narrative.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Leon said:

    AlistairM said:

    Vaccinations during Easter

    05/04/21
    France 66k
    UK 105k

    04/04/21
    France 61k
    UK 95k

    03/04/21
    France 195k
    UK 286k

    02/04/21
    France 352k
    UK 354k

    01/04/21
    France 380k
    UK 616k

    31/03/21
    France 319k
    UK 627k

    https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

    I don't know if anyone noticed but the last 2 days of case data in France was 10K and 8K. The previous few days were 46K up to 80K. So it is highly likely today there will be a huge number reported, highly likely to be 100K+ cases.
    Yay! At least that's EXCITING. Something to look forward to
    I presume it is because covid took easter weekend off....went for long weekend in its country retreat.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Well after some prodding and calls I finally got a phone call offering me a jab yesterday. It is to be given at the vaccination centre so I think it is genuine. 3.50 next Monday. It's a relief.

    Have you sorted out with NHS Scotland whether you exist or not? And are on a GP's list?
    I am assuming that I do exist because they were able to phone me. And I can post on PB as well. I don't have enough imagination to make all this up.
    Wait until you wake up from this dream and find that you are in fact a Cornish flint knapper and that PB doesn't exist.
    Arrgh! I think I'd have to invent it. In all seriousness the banter on here has been a great help these last few months.
    I was reading the last few comments on the previous thread. Many PB posters (a robust bunch or we wouldn't be on here) suffering from anxiety and depression. This is horrendous.

    The disease is horrendous also but the govt responding to the current situation - which means some, all, or none of it may be justified - has broken a large number of people such that when we are told we will be allowed to sit on a park bench at some unspecified time in the future, there are tears of joy and gratitude. Extraordinary.

    And it has been clapped (literally) and rewarded in the polls the whole time.
    Well, the clapping was for the NHS not for the liberty clipping. But, yes, that was a tough read, some of that on PT. People struggling. I am a bit too tbh. Nothing terrible but feeling "grey" and lethargic. Snap out if it, kinabalu!

    For me, next week is key. Outdoor pubs, indoor leisure, all shops.

    Haircut, swimming in heated indoor pool, bit of boxing in the gym, beers outside in a weak sun. Huge.
    Blimey. Very active. Going to take your cloth cap and cravat off?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,150

    The psychological contradiction at the heart of the Alba Party revealed.

    https://twitter.com/yeswithdex/status/1379704646067961861?s=21

    He looks absolutely terrible.

    Like a seedy uncle, after three decades on the sauce, finally letting it all go. I've seen myself looking similar, of late
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    FPT

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    The Boris’ name discussion is the dullest debate on PB since the doctors’ date notation classic of the genre.

    For me it's the "West Lothian question".

    Gosh that's a yawner.
    The West Lothian question is one of the most important issues in politics. It's incredible that it still hasn't been resolved after about 45 years.
    I think that's because it's a question with only 2 answers. Reverse devolution or Scottish independence. If both of those are ruled out all one can do is discuss the question without a resolution. Hence my boredom with it.
    Or an English Parliament.

    Or removing altogether non English (or non English and Welsh) MPs from voting on English (or English and Welsh) issues. Not a double majority or relying upon them abstaining, but having them as a separate class of MP able to vote on issues that are their responsibility and not on those that are devolved.
    Yes, but those don't look to me like realistic options. The first would delegitimize the UK parliament and the second is way too fussy. Neither is reversing devolution realistic. And neither is Sindy unless the Scots vote for it. So we're stuck with an unanswerable question. Perhaps it's best to just learn to live with it. There are many questions in life with no answer. And is it really that important? I'm not sure it is. I don't lose much sleep over it.
    Any devolution option has to include a separate English Parliament. That’s the single biggest flaw in the current arrangements.
    But, as I say, that makes a mockery of the UK one. The imbalance in the size of the home nations is just too great for that model to be tenable. Creates more problems than it solves.

    No, I rather fear that in practice it's Sindy or we muddle along not answering the "West Lothian question". Which I think I can live with.
    It’s only not a problem now, because there’s a safe Conservative majority.

    If, at the next election, there’s a clear Conservative majority in England, but a Lab/SNP/PC stitch-up in Westminster, then we have a serious constitutional problem on our hands.

    The government needs to sort this out, one way or the other, before the next election.
    Language again! You're as bad as @HYUFD

    Not "stitch up". Coalition of the willing.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2021
    https://twitter.com/LukePollard/status/1379543115334361090?s=19

    Starmer doesn't looked thrilled to be having chips from a box for his tea.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,291
    edited April 2021

    tlg86 said:

    EXTINCTION Rebellion activists armed with hammers have today smashed windows at the Barclays Bank HQ in London. Extinction Rebellion said the action was part of its so called “Money Rebellion” against the capitalist system.

    All those useful idiots who give the XR mob the free pass cos its all about the lovely cuddly save the planet, when the leaders have been clear from the start it is about smashing the capitalist system.

    Sky News reported that this morning... as a lead in to their new show!

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-daily-climate-show-sky-news-programme-dedicated-to-global-crisis-is-launching-this-week-12266649
    Sky is another tv network in a mess....they have gone all eco woke and I doubt their audience is particularly interested....Even during the peak of pandemic their viewership numbers were rubbish.

    If Disney and Amazon decide to outbid them for the footy or the EPL go for their own streaming channel, they will be toast. Uncle Rupert is a lot of things, but he isn't a dumdum, it was either because totally integrated media outlet or exit with a big cheque.
    It is amazing just how far Sky have gone eco woke and generally to the left much like CNN

    It also prides itself with announcing 'It is the only programme from the heart of Westminster' without a thought of just how Metropolitan out of touch it sounds
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say that I absolutely share the anger and frustration of @Maffew, @Black_Rook and others (fpt) at the way the government is behaving. Not just on my behalf but on behalf of my 3 children. They are furious at the idea that they should be locked out of stuff or forced to jump through hoops to do normal stuff like go to a shop.

    I am on their and @Maffew's side and all those who feel like him. We've been protected. Time to open up society again - properly - and let people live freely.

    Yes, and take responsibility for their own health rather than demanding that others do it for them. Blame has been a recurring and dispiriting factor in all of this.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,081
    Leon said:

    The psychological contradiction at the heart of the Alba Party revealed.

    https://twitter.com/yeswithdex/status/1379704646067961861?s=21

    He looks absolutely terrible.

    Like a seedy uncle, after three decades on the sauce, finally letting it all go. I've seen myself looking similar, of late
    But still immaculately tailored I’d hope.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377

    Does the BBC have any shows at all for a 16-30 demographic?

    As far as I am aware, it has basically nothing in the same space as beauty Youtubers, commentary channels, or gaming. It lacks the rights to rely on nostalgia - its reruns are still shows from the 1980s, not 90s Disney.

    I realise that many posters here won't necessarily perceive the lack of content, for basically the same reason the BBC doesn't: if you're not the target market, this all looks like an unlikely candidate for TV.

    They occasionally try to do "youth" programming.

    The results remind me of Prince Charles trying to dance.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    edited April 2021
    Mr. Rabbit, the lack of gaming content is just bizarre given how big it is.

    But even on history, I watch far more on Youtube than TV (which, even when it has such stuff on, is often so basic and introductory it's a bit boring).

    As an aside, Shadiversity, history Youtube chap (one I occasionally rather than regularly watch) advised Brandon Sanderson on sword stuff for Rhythm of War (Stormlight Archives book 4), which I'm reading currently.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377

    https://twitter.com/LukePollard/status/1379543115334361090?s=19

    Starmer doesn't looked thrilled to be having chips from a box for his tea.

    I ma reminded of the story about the reaction of the Blairs, when they went to stay with the leader of the Labour Party in Wales.
  • Options
    MaffewMaffew Posts: 235
    TOPPING said:



    As I said your mail last night was powerful and typical of many on here - well done for coming out and saying it.

    And all I can say is that I really do think we are coming to the end of this. Any post-June 21st restrictions will be self-implemented (eg. Nick Palmer need not go to the no vaxport pub and choose one where the landlord has decided to use them: eg none). Same with masks and social distancing.

    With the bulk of at risk groups vaccinated we can begin to resume normality. And if the PM decides otherwise because caution then he will have an almighty fight on his hands with his own party and, god help us I hope, with the opposition.

    Thanks, I appreciate your kind words.

    Rationally I know you're probably right. I've got two parallel thought processes going on in my head - the rational one where I can look at the numbers and come to the same conclusions as you and the irrational one where I feel utterly powerless and threatened by every media pronouncement or model. I pride myself on being able to think rationally and logically (it's pretty important for my job), but this irrational worrying is another symptom of lockdown.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,983
    TOPPING said:

    Maffew said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    ridaligo said:

    Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.

    As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?

    There are 3 possibilities:

    1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...

    It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).

    I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").

    My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.

    Good post.

    I think the vaccine probably is effective (look at Israel is the cry here) but that the govt is also sh&t-scared that once people are out and about case rates will rise (who cares) and so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are sitting on a precious amount of goodwill atm and are worried about squandering it.

    Of course they might squander this either way - a resurgence in deaths or continued restrictive measures.

    I think, through gritted teeth, and although I am more with you on dates, I can see the logic for the current timetable.

    That said, let's imagine cases, hosps, and deaths do skyrocket after June21st. Will it be possible to impose another lockdown? There may be a resistance movement but look at the polls.
    My personal theory is that the government in hoping, hoping for #1

    However, they are worried about the following - in the process of unlocking, everyone...er.... goes for it. This causes a third wave of whatever size.

    If it happens before we are down into the 40s for vaccinations that could lead to problems with hospitals.

    It would definitely mean more deaths among the refusnik groups. And among those for whom the vaccine can't be administered for medical reasons.

    One thing the government can be absolutely certain of - that in that case, they will be blamed. Everyone crying out for freedom now, will be demanding answers as to why we weren't all welded in our homes until 103% of the population was vaccinated. 8 times over.
    Yep. Although a monumental twat, I cannot believe that Boris would not realise that as soon as the words "June 21st no more restrictions" were out of his mouth, most of the country would have marked that down as the end date. And all this faff about masks, distancing, etc will be out the window also.

    People have had months to ponder June 21st and it would be a huge electoral gamble for this not to happen.
    I hope you're right, but then I read/hear older people talking about how important it is to be safe. Nick Palmer on here was supporting vaccine passports for indoor hospitality before everyone was vaccinated for example. Over 55s can basically outvote the young with ease.

    We can't just keep locking down forever, even if the results of the disease are horrendous. It's always "just a little longer". I currently feel like the vaccination program is increasingly pointless. Not because I don't believe in vaccination, I will have one as soon as I'm offered, but I question whether there would be any material difference in the steps we've taken to unlock so far without one. If the May and June unlocking are being delayed/cancelled, then what's the point?

    My biggest fear at the moment is that this is all going to be stretched out so that there are ongoing restrictions into Autumn, following which we will of course need to increase restrictions "as a precaution" when cases inevitably rise.
    As I said your mail last night was powerful and typical of many on here - well done for coming out and saying it.

    And all I can say is that I really do think we are coming to the end of this. Any post-June 21st restrictions will be self-implemented (eg. Nick Palmer need not go to the no vaxport pub and choose one where the landlord has decided to use them: eg none). Same with masks and social distancing.

    With the bulk of at risk groups vaccinated we can begin to resume normality. And if the PM decides otherwise because caution then he will have an almighty fight on his hands with his own party and, god help us I hope, with the opposition.
    Interesting post, I think from a political standpoint, Labour's position is crucial. If Sir Keir holds the line about vaxport opposition, it could imply a shift towards the Zoe Williams-style left-libertarian position (not lockdown sceptic as such but certainly lockdown questioning). If that happens, this is over. Labour + CRG is too large a bloc to allow authoritarians in parliament to get their legislation through.

    P.S. Have caught up on the personal testimonies of Mortimer, Dixie, Leon and Matt on the previous thread. Hang in there chaps. I hope that those such as Nick, Gideon and Sandy that preach further restrictions and hardcore enforcement are listening.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,150
    I don't want to harp on the weather, again, but the pathetic fallacy does seem quite forceful at the moment

    We are Narnia, frozen in an endless winter of lockdown. Last week it felt like the thaw was with us - but no. It was a false dawn. Birds peck forlornly at the ice, once more. Tumnus stares at nothing
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,280

    https://twitter.com/LukePollard/status/1379543115334361090?s=19

    Starmer doesn't looked thrilled to be having chips from a box for his tea.

    There's always a Dylan song

    Now, the man on the stand, he wants my vote
    He's a-runnin' for office on a ballot note
    He's out there preachin' in front of the steeple
    Tellin' me he loves all kinds of people

    He's eatin' bagels
    He's eatin' pizza
    He's eatin' chitlins
  • Options
    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,440
    DavidL said:

    Not sure if this has already been commented upon, but the SNP PPB last night was truly extraordinary.

    "It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen..."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/watch-snp-s-creepy-party-broadcast


    Nicola on every screen Big Brother style was in interesting touch. Weird.
    Weird? It's downright creepy. It's a quite remarkable transformation in presentational terms. Seem to have gone directly from the promised sunlit uplands through some kind of black mirror to an "Escape from New York" proposition, using the cinematic approach of an Eisenstein or Riefenstahl.

    Given this is running alongside the complementary campaign of Salmond, the politically undead , we really seem to be entering previously unexplored realms north of the border.

    All we need now is George Galloway with his fedora and cigar. Oh, wait...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,995
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    FPT

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    The Boris’ name discussion is the dullest debate on PB since the doctors’ date notation classic of the genre.

    For me it's the "West Lothian question".

    Gosh that's a yawner.
    The West Lothian question is one of the most important issues in politics. It's incredible that it still hasn't been resolved after about 45 years.
    I think that's because it's a question with only 2 answers. Reverse devolution or Scottish independence. If both of those are ruled out all one can do is discuss the question without a resolution. Hence my boredom with it.
    Or an English Parliament.

    Or removing altogether non English (or non English and Welsh) MPs from voting on English (or English and Welsh) issues. Not a double majority or relying upon them abstaining, but having them as a separate class of MP able to vote on issues that are their responsibility and not on those that are devolved.
    Yes, but those don't look to me like realistic options. The first would delegitimize the UK parliament and the second is way too fussy. Neither is reversing devolution realistic. And neither is Sindy unless the Scots vote for it. So we're stuck with an unanswerable question. Perhaps it's best to just learn to live with it. There are many questions in life with no answer. And is it really that important? I'm not sure it is. I don't lose much sleep over it.
    Any devolution option has to include a separate English Parliament. That’s the single biggest flaw in the current arrangements.
    But, as I say, that makes a mockery of the UK one. The imbalance in the size of the home nations is just too great for that model to be tenable. Creates more problems than it solves.

    No, I rather fear that in practice it's Sindy or we muddle along not answering the "West Lothian question". Which I think I can live with.
    It’s only not a problem now, because there’s a safe Conservative majority.

    If, at the next election, there’s a clear Conservative majority in England, but a Lab/SNP/PC stitch-up in Westminster, then we have a serious constitutional problem on our hands.

    The government needs to sort this out, one way or the other, before the next election.
    Yes if that happened the shift would move from Scottish nationalism to a resurgent English nationalism if PM Starmer was propped up by the SNP but we had a Tory majority in England, especially if the SNP voted on English laws
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,779

    https://twitter.com/LukePollard/status/1379543115334361090?s=19

    Starmer doesn't looked thrilled to be having chips from a box for his tea.

    I ma reminded of the story about the reaction of the Blairs, when they went to stay with the leader of the Labour Party in Wales.
    I suspect Starmer is more annoyed that there's someone taking photos and his fish and chips are going cold as he can't risk doing a Milliband,.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    Maffew said:

    TOPPING said:



    As I said your mail last night was powerful and typical of many on here - well done for coming out and saying it.

    And all I can say is that I really do think we are coming to the end of this. Any post-June 21st restrictions will be self-implemented (eg. Nick Palmer need not go to the no vaxport pub and choose one where the landlord has decided to use them: eg none). Same with masks and social distancing.

    With the bulk of at risk groups vaccinated we can begin to resume normality. And if the PM decides otherwise because caution then he will have an almighty fight on his hands with his own party and, god help us I hope, with the opposition.

    Thanks, I appreciate your kind words.

    Rationally I know you're probably right. I've got two parallel thought processes going on in my head - the rational one where I can look at the numbers and come to the same conclusions as you and the irrational one where I feel utterly powerless and threatened by every media pronouncement or model. I pride myself on being able to think rationally and logically (it's pretty important for my job), but this irrational worrying is another symptom of lockdown.
    The worrying has proved time and time again to not be irrational.
  • Options
    LennonLennon Posts: 1,733
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    FPT

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    The Boris’ name discussion is the dullest debate on PB since the doctors’ date notation classic of the genre.

    For me it's the "West Lothian question".

    Gosh that's a yawner.
    The West Lothian question is one of the most important issues in politics. It's incredible that it still hasn't been resolved after about 45 years.
    I think that's because it's a question with only 2 answers. Reverse devolution or Scottish independence. If both of those are ruled out all one can do is discuss the question without a resolution. Hence my boredom with it.
    Or an English Parliament.

    Or removing altogether non English (or non English and Welsh) MPs from voting on English (or English and Welsh) issues. Not a double majority or relying upon them abstaining, but having them as a separate class of MP able to vote on issues that are their responsibility and not on those that are devolved.
    Yes, but those don't look to me like realistic options. The first would delegitimize the UK parliament and the second is way too fussy. Neither is reversing devolution realistic. And neither is Sindy unless the Scots vote for it. So we're stuck with an unanswerable question. Perhaps it's best to just learn to live with it. There are many questions in life with no answer. And is it really that important? I'm not sure it is. I don't lose much sleep over it.
    Any devolution option has to include a separate English Parliament. That’s the single biggest flaw in the current arrangements.
    But, as I say, that makes a mockery of the UK one. The imbalance in the size of the home nations is just too great for that model to be tenable. Creates more problems than it solves.

    No, I rather fear that in practice it's Sindy or we muddle along not answering the "West Lothian question". Which I think I can live with.
    It’s only not a problem now, because there’s a safe Conservative majority.

    If, at the next election, there’s a clear Conservative majority in England, but a Lab/SNP/PC stitch-up in Westminster, then we have a serious constitutional problem on our hands.

    The government needs to sort this out, one way or the other, before the next election.
    But there is no incentive for either party to sort it out. Conservatives don't want to sort it as the 'threat' of a 'coalition of chaos' means larger vote shares for them, and Labour don't want to sort it out as it works in their favour if they do get in.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2021



    tlg86 said:

    EXTINCTION Rebellion activists armed with hammers have today smashed windows at the Barclays Bank HQ in London. Extinction Rebellion said the action was part of its so called “Money Rebellion” against the capitalist system.

    All those useful idiots who give the XR mob the free pass cos its all about the lovely cuddly save the planet, when the leaders have been clear from the start it is about smashing the capitalist system.

    Sky News reported that this morning... as a lead in to their new show!

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-daily-climate-show-sky-news-programme-dedicated-to-global-crisis-is-launching-this-week-12266649
    Sky is another tv network in a mess....they have gone all eco woke and I doubt their audience is particularly interested....Even during the peak of pandemic their viewership numbers were rubbish.

    If Disney and Amazon decide to outbid them for the footy or the EPL go for their own streaming channel, they will be toast. Uncle Rupert is a lot of things, but he isn't a dumdum, it was either because totally integrated media outlet or exit with a big cheque.
    It is amazing just how far Sky have gone eco woke and generally to the left much like CNN

    It also prides itself with announcing 'It is the only programme from the heart of Westminster' without a thought of just how Metropolitan out of touch it sounds
    I think a lot of it comes down to how so much of the media are just in this twitter-verse bubble....they all follow one another, so they can crib each others stories and results in them being convinced certain twitter niche topics THE major concerns shared by the public at large.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826



    tlg86 said:

    EXTINCTION Rebellion activists armed with hammers have today smashed windows at the Barclays Bank HQ in London. Extinction Rebellion said the action was part of its so called “Money Rebellion” against the capitalist system.

    All those useful idiots who give the XR mob the free pass cos its all about the lovely cuddly save the planet, when the leaders have been clear from the start it is about smashing the capitalist system.

    Sky News reported that this morning... as a lead in to their new show!

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-daily-climate-show-sky-news-programme-dedicated-to-global-crisis-is-launching-this-week-12266649
    Sky is another tv network in a mess....they have gone all eco woke and I doubt their audience is particularly interested....Even during the peak of pandemic their viewership numbers were rubbish.

    If Disney and Amazon decide to outbid them for the footy or the EPL go for their own streaming channel, they will be toast. Uncle Rupert is a lot of things, but he isn't a dumdum, it was either because totally integrated media outlet or exit with a big cheque.
    It is amazing just how far Sky have gone eco woke and generally to the left much like CNN

    It also prides itself with announcing 'It is the only programme from the heart of Westminster' without a thought of just how Metropolitan out of touch it sounds
    I think a lot of it comes down to how so much of the media are just in this twitter-verse bubble....they all follow one another, so they can crib each others stories and results in them being convinced certain twitter niche topics THE major concerns shared by the public at large.
    The amount of times they look for "responses" to a policy or an event and it is just Tweet after Tweet . . .

    Vox pops were bad. This is just so much worse.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377
    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say that I absolutely share the anger and frustration of @Maffew, @Black_Rook and others (fpt) at the way the government is behaving. Not just on my behalf but on behalf of my 3 children. They are furious at the idea that they should be locked out of stuff or forced to jump through hoops to do normal stuff like go to a shop.

    I am on their and @Maffew's side and all those who feel like him. We've been protected. Time to open up society again - properly - and let people live freely.

    The problem is, that until we are down into the 40s on vaccinations, opening everything up will result in hospitalisations and an increase in deaths.

    So what should we do?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBHHFnUqo5o
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Mr. Rabbit, the lack of gaming content is just bizarre given how big it is.

    But even on history, I watch far more on Youtube than TV (which, even when it has such stuff on, is often so basic and introductory it's a bit boring).

    As an aside, Shadiversity, history Youtube chap (one I occasionally rather than regularly watch) advised Brandon Sanderson on sword stuff for Rhythm of War (Stormlight Archives book 4), which I'm reading currently.

    I understand the BBC's bind on history, clearly the advantage YouTube has is picking and choosing what you're interested in.

    Shadiversity's brother runs the art YouTube channel Jazza, which is another interesting case with a general audience that skews young. His audience must be ages 8 to 30 - with a change in editing the BBC could basically syndicate it.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,525
    edited April 2021
    Do we have a list of Tory MPs opposed to domestic vaccine passsport?

    I it a combination of NRG and pinsstripes?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896

    https://twitter.com/LukePollard/status/1379543115334361090?s=19

    Starmer doesn't looked thrilled to be having chips from a box for his tea.

    Will he do a Mandleson, and ask about the ‘guacamole’ served with the fish and chips?
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    https://twitter.com/LukePollard/status/1379543115334361090?s=19

    Starmer doesn't looked thrilled to be having chips from a box for his tea.

    I ma reminded of the story about the reaction of the Blairs, when they went to stay with the leader of the Labour Party in Wales.
    Or of the mushy peas/ guacamole urban legend with Mandleson.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,150
    edited April 2021

    TOPPING said:

    Maffew said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    ridaligo said:

    Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.

    As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?

    There are 3 possibilities:

    1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...

    It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).

    I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").

    My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.

    Good post.

    I think the vaccine probably is effective (look at Israel is the cry here) but that the govt is also sh&t-scared that once people are out and about case rates will rise (who cares) and so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are sitting on a precious amount of goodwill atm and are worried about squandering it.

    Of course they might squander this either way - a resurgence in deaths or continued restrictive measures.

    I think, through gritted teeth, and although I am more with you on dates, I can see the logic for the current timetable.

    That said, let's imagine cases, hosps, and deaths do skyrocket after June21st. Will it be possible to impose another lockdown? There may be a resistance movement but look at the polls.
    My personal theory is that the government in hoping, hoping for #1

    However, they are worried about the following - in the process of unlocking, everyone...er.... goes for it. This causes a third wave of whatever size.

    If it happens before we are down into the 40s for vaccinations that could lead to problems with hospitals.

    It would definitely mean more deaths among the refusnik groups. And among those for whom the vaccine can't be administered for medical reasons.

    One thing the government can be absolutely certain of - that in that case, they will be blamed. Everyone crying out for freedom now, will be demanding answers as to why we weren't all welded in our homes until 103% of the population was vaccinated. 8 times over.
    Yep. Although a monumental twat, I cannot believe that Boris would not realise that as soon as the words "June 21st no more restrictions" were out of his mouth, most of the country would have marked that down as the end date. And all this faff about masks, distancing, etc will be out the window also.

    People have had months to ponder June 21st and it would be a huge electoral gamble for this not to happen.
    I hope you're right, but then I read/hear older people talking about how important it is to be safe. Nick Palmer on here was supporting vaccine passports for indoor hospitality before everyone was vaccinated for example. Over 55s can basically outvote the young with ease.

    We can't just keep locking down forever, even if the results of the disease are horrendous. It's always "just a little longer". I currently feel like the vaccination program is increasingly pointless. Not because I don't believe in vaccination, I will have one as soon as I'm offered, but I question whether there would be any material difference in the steps we've taken to unlock so far without one. If the May and June unlocking are being delayed/cancelled, then what's the point?

    My biggest fear at the moment is that this is all going to be stretched out so that there are ongoing restrictions into Autumn, following which we will of course need to increase restrictions "as a precaution" when cases inevitably rise.
    As I said your mail last night was powerful and typical of many on here - well done for coming out and saying it.

    And all I can say is that I really do think we are coming to the end of this. Any post-June 21st restrictions will be self-implemented (eg. Nick Palmer need not go to the no vaxport pub and choose one where the landlord has decided to use them: eg none). Same with masks and social distancing.

    With the bulk of at risk groups vaccinated we can begin to resume normality. And if the PM decides otherwise because caution then he will have an almighty fight on his hands with his own party and, god help us I hope, with the opposition.
    Interesting post, I think from a political standpoint, Labour's position is crucial. If Sir Keir holds the line about vaxport opposition, it could imply a shift towards the Zoe Williams-style left-libertarian position (not lockdown sceptic as such but certainly lockdown questioning). If that happens, this is over. Labour + CRG is too large a bloc to allow authoritarians in parliament to get their legislation through.

    P.S. Have caught up on the personal testimonies of Mortimer, Dixie, Leon and Matt on the previous thread. Hang in there chaps. I hope that those such as Nick, Gideon and Sandy that preach further restrictions and hardcore enforcement are listening.
    I actually agree with NPXMP on Vaxports (tho I think they should be voluntary, per sector or company). This is not because I view them as a further restriction, quite the opposite. I regard them as a faster way out, a means of opening up QUICKER, and of reassuring the cautious so we can get the economy motoring, esp big city centres, and all the hospitality, theatres and cinemas

    Then we bin them, after a year or so, but we keep them in reserve should we need to do a South Korea on Covid-32


  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/LukePollard/status/1379543115334361090?s=19

    Starmer doesn't looked thrilled to be having chips from a box for his tea.

    Will he do a Mandleson, and ask about the ‘guacamole’ served with the fish and chips?
    jinx!
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,150

    Mr. Rabbit, the lack of gaming content is just bizarre given how big it is.

    But even on history, I watch far more on Youtube than TV (which, even when it has such stuff on, is often so basic and introductory it's a bit boring).

    As an aside, Shadiversity, history Youtube chap (one I occasionally rather than regularly watch) advised Brandon Sanderson on sword stuff for Rhythm of War (Stormlight Archives book 4), which I'm reading currently.

    "even when it has such stuff on, is often so basic and introductory it's a bit boring"
    That's true across the board - it is invariably the case that presenting anything at all they start from the assumption that their viewers have no idea about the subject and we are treated to repeated ab initio spiels before anything new or of slight interest is broached.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,280
    Leon said:

    I don't want to harp on the weather, again, but the pathetic fallacy does seem quite forceful at the moment

    We are Narnia, frozen in an endless winter of lockdown. Last week it felt like the thaw was with us - but no. It was a false dawn. Birds peck forlornly at the ice, once more. Tumnus stares at nothing

    Forever lockdown and never Christmas?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,983
    edited April 2021

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say that I absolutely share the anger and frustration of @Maffew, @Black_Rook and others (fpt) at the way the government is behaving. Not just on my behalf but on behalf of my 3 children. They are furious at the idea that they should be locked out of stuff or forced to jump through hoops to do normal stuff like go to a shop.

    I am on their and @Maffew's side and all those who feel like him. We've been protected. Time to open up society again - properly - and let people live freely.

    The problem is, that until we are down into the 40s on vaccinations, opening everything up will result in hospitalisations and an increase in deaths.

    So what should we do?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBHHFnUqo5o
    A good start would be to stop the endless "no earlier than" "socially distanced, of course" "caution required" drumbeat – and let the population plan for a free life beyond 21 June.

    The Sage report yesterday was a disgrace. As far as I can see, it was based on duff numbers and has little if any support from its peers at other institutions.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377

    https://twitter.com/LukePollard/status/1379543115334361090?s=19

    Starmer doesn't looked thrilled to be having chips from a box for his tea.

    I ma reminded of the story about the reaction of the Blairs, when they went to stay with the leader of the Labour Party in Wales.
    Or of the mushy peas/ guacamole urban legend with Mandleson.
    This one wasn't urban legend - IIRC the chap in question had a rambling old farmhouse kind of place. Not modernised and full of children and wet dogs. Not the Blairs cup of tea at all....
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    ridaligo said:

    Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.

    As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?

    There are 3 possibilities:

    1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...

    It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).

    I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").

    My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.

    It's #3. The only explanation which makes sense to me. The fact that they were making plans for these ID cards last December even as they were telling us to go out and enjoy Xmas tells me that these plans are simply using health as a pretext to extort control and power over us.

    I simply will not do-operate with any of this rubbish. I am going to live my life as a free woman capable of making my own judgments not as some cowering imbecile asking permission to go out of my front door.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say that I absolutely share the anger and frustration of @Maffew, @Black_Rook and others (fpt) at the way the government is behaving. Not just on my behalf but on behalf of my 3 children. They are furious at the idea that they should be locked out of stuff or forced to jump through hoops to do normal stuff like go to a shop.

    I am on their and @Maffew's side and all those who feel like him. We've been protected. Time to open up society again - properly - and let people live freely.

    The problem is, that until we are down into the 40s on vaccinations, opening everything up will result in hospitalisations and an increase in deaths.

    So what should we do?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBHHFnUqo5o
    A good start would be to stop the endless "no earlier than" "socially distanced, of course" "caution required" drumbeat – and let the population plan for a free life beyond 21 June.

    The Sage report yesterday was a disgrace. As far as I can see, it was based on duff numbers and has little if not any support from its peers at other institutions.
    Deaths have been all but eliminated, the virus is all but eliminated. There is no way if you were going on "data not dates" we shouldn't be accelerating the lifting of lockdown, not pushing it back.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    edited April 2021

    https://twitter.com/LukePollard/status/1379543115334361090?s=19

    Starmer doesn't looked thrilled to be having chips from a box for his tea.

    I ma reminded of the story about the reaction of the Blairs, when they went to stay with the leader of the Labour Party in Wales.
    Or of the mushy peas/ guacamole urban legend with Mandleson.
    This one wasn't urban legend - IIRC the chap in question had a rambling old farmhouse kind of place. Not modernised and full of children and wet dogs. Not the Blairs cup of tea at all....
    Not according to the man himself:
    https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/lord-mandelson-reveals-secrets-time-1417662

    Speaking to the Sunday Sun, Lord Mandelson said there was one story in particular he wanted to clear up . . . the now infamous rumour that he once mistook chip shop mushy peas for avocado dip guacamole.

    He said: “As I discovered when I was back in Hartlepool this week mushy peas are now being served as pea puree.

    “But the guacamole story is not true I’m afraid. Great story, but not true.

    “The story actually applies - as I explain in the book - to an American student helping out in the Knowsley North by-election in 1986, who walked into the fish and chip shop, pointed to the mushy peas and said I’ll have some of your guacamole as well thanks.

    “Now, mainly, but not only thanks to Neil Kinnock, who thought it was hilarious, the joke was applied to me.

    “I worked for the Labour party from 1985 to 1991 as the campaign director and at my leaving do he solemnly presented me with a large piece of fish and chips and mushy peas wrapped in the Daily Mirror, and said enjoy the guacamole.

    “And from that moment on the story was transferred to me.”
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,445
    Leon said:

    I don't want to harp on the weather, again, but the pathetic fallacy does seem quite forceful at the moment

    We are Narnia, frozen in an endless winter of lockdown. Last week it felt like the thaw was with us - but no. It was a false dawn. Birds peck forlornly at the ice, once more. Tumnus stares at nothing

    It's lovely in Manchester. Bright blue skies, a bit of warmth.
    It did snow yesterday, mind. But only for half an hour.
    I'd say this Spring feels sunnier and perhaps slightly warmer than average.
  • Options
    MaffewMaffew Posts: 235

    The problem is, that until we are down into the 40s on vaccinations, opening everything up will result in hospitalisations and an increase in deaths.

    So what should we do?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBHHFnUqo5o

    Stop briefing to the press that we need ongoing restrictions and that indoor reopening needs to be delayed. That would help. I can only speak for myself, but I can deal with the roadmap. I think it's too slow, but I can deal with that. What I can't deal with is endless backpedalling and goalpost shifting.

    For an example of backpedalling and goalpoast shifting, we appear to have gone from "flatten the curve" to "prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed" to prevent hospitalisations and an increase in deaths.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,609
    ridaligo said:

    Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.

    As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?

    There are 3 possibilities:

    1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...

    It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).

    I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").

    My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.

    +1
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    edited April 2021

    Mr. Urquhart, I hardly ever watch preamble and aftermath stuff with F1 (doesn't interest me) but caught some last season by mistake. The self-righteous presenter bibbled about making no apology for talking about BLM nonsense.

    Well, he should've. I watch F1 for sport, not a political lecture, especially one written by an overtly Marxist cabal of race-baiting cretins.

    Was the presenter outlining the abusive relationship between capital and labour, then, and explaining how only the seizing of power by the proletariat could address it?

    If so, I'll be tuning in religously.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377

    https://twitter.com/LukePollard/status/1379543115334361090?s=19

    Starmer doesn't looked thrilled to be having chips from a box for his tea.

    I ma reminded of the story about the reaction of the Blairs, when they went to stay with the leader of the Labour Party in Wales.
    Or of the mushy peas/ guacamole urban legend with Mandleson.
    This one wasn't urban legend - IIRC the chap in question had a rambling old farmhouse kind of place. Not modernised and full of children and wet dogs. Not the Blairs cup of tea at all....
    Not according to the man himself:
    https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/lord-mandelson-reveals-secrets-time-1417662

    Speaking to the Sunday Sun, Lord Mandelson said there was one story in particular he wanted to clear up . . . the now infamous rumour that he once mistook chip shop mushy peas for avocado dip guacamole.

    He said: “As I discovered when I was back in Hartlepool this week mushy peas are now being served as pea puree.

    “But the guacamole story is not true I’m afraid. Great story, but not true.

    “The story actually applies - as I explain in the book - to an American student helping out in the Knowsley North by-election in 1986, who walked into the fish and chip shop, pointed to the mushy peas and said I’ll have some of your guacamole as well thanks.

    “Now, mainly, but not only thanks to Neil Kinnock, who thought it was hilarious, the joke was applied to me.

    “I worked for the Labour party from 1985 to 1991 as the campaign director and at my leaving do he solemnly presented me with a large piece of fish and chips and mushy peas wrapped in the Daily Mirror, and said enjoy the guacamole.

    “And from that moment on the story was transferred to me.”
    I means the story about the Blairs staying with the Welsh Labour Leader, not the guacamole.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,983
    edited April 2021
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Maffew said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    ridaligo said:

    Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.

    As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?

    There are 3 possibilities:

    1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...

    It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).

    I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").

    My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.

    Good post.

    I think the vaccine probably is effective (look at Israel is the cry here) but that the govt is also sh&t-scared that once people are out and about case rates will rise (who cares) and so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are sitting on a precious amount of goodwill atm and are worried about squandering it.

    Of course they might squander this either way - a resurgence in deaths or continued restrictive measures.

    I think, through gritted teeth, and although I am more with you on dates, I can see the logic for the current timetable.

    That said, let's imagine cases, hosps, and deaths do skyrocket after June21st. Will it be possible to impose another lockdown? There may be a resistance movement but look at the polls.
    My personal theory is that the government in hoping, hoping for #1

    However, they are worried about the following - in the process of unlocking, everyone...er.... goes for it. This causes a third wave of whatever size.

    If it happens before we are down into the 40s for vaccinations that could lead to problems with hospitals.

    It would definitely mean more deaths among the refusnik groups. And among those for whom the vaccine can't be administered for medical reasons.

    One thing the government can be absolutely certain of - that in that case, they will be blamed. Everyone crying out for freedom now, will be demanding answers as to why we weren't all welded in our homes until 103% of the population was vaccinated. 8 times over.
    Yep. Although a monumental twat, I cannot believe that Boris would not realise that as soon as the words "June 21st no more restrictions" were out of his mouth, most of the country would have marked that down as the end date. And all this faff about masks, distancing, etc will be out the window also.

    People have had months to ponder June 21st and it would be a huge electoral gamble for this not to happen.
    I hope you're right, but then I read/hear older people talking about how important it is to be safe. Nick Palmer on here was supporting vaccine passports for indoor hospitality before everyone was vaccinated for example. Over 55s can basically outvote the young with ease.

    We can't just keep locking down forever, even if the results of the disease are horrendous. It's always "just a little longer". I currently feel like the vaccination program is increasingly pointless. Not because I don't believe in vaccination, I will have one as soon as I'm offered, but I question whether there would be any material difference in the steps we've taken to unlock so far without one. If the May and June unlocking are being delayed/cancelled, then what's the point?

    My biggest fear at the moment is that this is all going to be stretched out so that there are ongoing restrictions into Autumn, following which we will of course need to increase restrictions "as a precaution" when cases inevitably rise.
    As I said your mail last night was powerful and typical of many on here - well done for coming out and saying it.

    And all I can say is that I really do think we are coming to the end of this. Any post-June 21st restrictions will be self-implemented (eg. Nick Palmer need not go to the no vaxport pub and choose one where the landlord has decided to use them: eg none). Same with masks and social distancing.

    With the bulk of at risk groups vaccinated we can begin to resume normality. And if the PM decides otherwise because caution then he will have an almighty fight on his hands with his own party and, god help us I hope, with the opposition.
    Interesting post, I think from a political standpoint, Labour's position is crucial. If Sir Keir holds the line about vaxport opposition, it could imply a shift towards the Zoe Williams-style left-libertarian position (not lockdown sceptic as such but certainly lockdown questioning). If that happens, this is over. Labour + CRG is too large a bloc to allow authoritarians in parliament to get their legislation through.

    P.S. Have caught up on the personal testimonies of Mortimer, Dixie, Leon and Matt on the previous thread. Hang in there chaps. I hope that those such as Nick, Gideon and Sandy that preach further restrictions and hardcore enforcement are listening.
    I actually agree with NPXMP on Vaxports (tho I think they should be voluntary, per sector or company). This is not because I view them as a further restriction, quite the opposite. I regard them as a faster way out, a means of opening up QUICKER, and of reassuring the cautious so we can get the economy motoring, esp big city centres, and all the hospitality, theatres and cinemas

    Then we bin them, after a year or so, but we keep them in reserve should we need to do a South Korea on Covid-32


    Sure, if they are voluntary, that's fine. No different to club owners preventing guests from wearing denim on a Friday night – that's their prerogative ROAR.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say that I absolutely share the anger and frustration of @Maffew, @Black_Rook and others (fpt) at the way the government is behaving. Not just on my behalf but on behalf of my 3 children. They are furious at the idea that they should be locked out of stuff or forced to jump through hoops to do normal stuff like go to a shop.

    I am on their and @Maffew's side and all those who feel like him. We've been protected. Time to open up society again - properly - and let people live freely.

    The problem is, that until we are down into the 40s on vaccinations, opening everything up will result in hospitalisations and an increase in deaths.

    So what should we do?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBHHFnUqo5o
    We remind ourselves of the categorical imperative of our principles and restore liberties and accept the hospitalisations and an increase in deaths as long as NHS isn't overwhelmed. That was, after all, the original reason for these authoritarian measures.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    Today's case, vaccination and deaths numbers should be interesting as there might well be a bit of easter unwind in all 3.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Or they have a plan which is cautious and could be quicker but the timeline is based on the truth that the public will simply not tolerate another lockdown no matter what.

    It also allows clear planning for business to start up and gives the one thing they need which is certainty.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Well after some prodding and calls I finally got a phone call offering me a jab yesterday. It is to be given at the vaccination centre so I think it is genuine. 3.50 next Monday. It's a relief.

    Have you sorted out with NHS Scotland whether you exist or not? And are on a GP's list?
    I am assuming that I do exist because they were able to phone me. And I can post on PB as well. I don't have enough imagination to make all this up.
    Wait until you wake up from this dream and find that you are in fact a Cornish flint knapper and that PB doesn't exist.
    Arrgh! I think I'd have to invent it. In all seriousness the banter on here has been a great help these last few months.
    I was reading the last few comments on the previous thread. Many PB posters (a robust bunch or we wouldn't be on here) suffering from anxiety and depression. This is horrendous.

    The disease is horrendous also but the govt responding to the current situation - which means some, all, or none of it may be justified - has broken a large number of people such that when we are told we will be allowed to sit on a park bench at some unspecified time in the future, there are tears of joy and gratitude. Extraordinary.

    And it has been clapped (literally) and rewarded in the polls the whole time.
    Well, the clapping was for the NHS not for the liberty clipping. But, yes, that was a tough read, some of that on PT. People struggling. I am a bit too tbh. Nothing terrible but feeling "grey" and lethargic. Snap out if it, kinabalu!

    For me, next week is key. Outdoor pubs, indoor leisure, all shops.

    Haircut, swimming in heated indoor pool, bit of boxing in the gym, beers outside in a weak sun. Huge.
    Blimey. Very active. Going to take your cloth cap and cravat off?
    For the haircut, yes. Least the cap. Cravat is not me. Please remove that from your mental image.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    https://twitter.com/LukePollard/status/1379543115334361090?s=19

    Starmer doesn't looked thrilled to be having chips from a box for his tea.

    I ma reminded of the story about the reaction of the Blairs, when they went to stay with the leader of the Labour Party in Wales.
    Or of the mushy peas/ guacamole urban legend with Mandleson.
    This one wasn't urban legend - IIRC the chap in question had a rambling old farmhouse kind of place. Not modernised and full of children and wet dogs. Not the Blairs cup of tea at all....
    Not according to the man himself:
    https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/lord-mandelson-reveals-secrets-time-1417662

    Speaking to the Sunday Sun, Lord Mandelson said there was one story in particular he wanted to clear up . . . the now infamous rumour that he once mistook chip shop mushy peas for avocado dip guacamole.

    He said: “As I discovered when I was back in Hartlepool this week mushy peas are now being served as pea puree.

    “But the guacamole story is not true I’m afraid. Great story, but not true.

    “The story actually applies - as I explain in the book - to an American student helping out in the Knowsley North by-election in 1986, who walked into the fish and chip shop, pointed to the mushy peas and said I’ll have some of your guacamole as well thanks.

    “Now, mainly, but not only thanks to Neil Kinnock, who thought it was hilarious, the joke was applied to me.

    “I worked for the Labour party from 1985 to 1991 as the campaign director and at my leaving do he solemnly presented me with a large piece of fish and chips and mushy peas wrapped in the Daily Mirror, and said enjoy the guacamole.

    “And from that moment on the story was transferred to me.”
    I means the story about the Blairs staying with the Welsh Labour Leader, not the guacamole.
    Right ok :) That makes more sense.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,150

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Maffew said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    ridaligo said:

    Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.

    As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?

    There are 3 possibilities:

    1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...

    It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).

    I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").

    My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.

    Good post.

    I think the vaccine probably is effective (look at Israel is the cry here) but that the govt is also sh&t-scared that once people are out and about case rates will rise (who cares) and so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are sitting on a precious amount of goodwill atm and are worried about squandering it.

    Of course they might squander this either way - a resurgence in deaths or continued restrictive measures.

    I think, through gritted teeth, and although I am more with you on dates, I can see the logic for the current timetable.

    That said, let's imagine cases, hosps, and deaths do skyrocket after June21st. Will it be possible to impose another lockdown? There may be a resistance movement but look at the polls.
    My personal theory is that the government in hoping, hoping for #1

    However, they are worried about the following - in the process of unlocking, everyone...er.... goes for it. This causes a third wave of whatever size.

    If it happens before we are down into the 40s for vaccinations that could lead to problems with hospitals.

    It would definitely mean more deaths among the refusnik groups. And among those for whom the vaccine can't be administered for medical reasons.

    One thing the government can be absolutely certain of - that in that case, they will be blamed. Everyone crying out for freedom now, will be demanding answers as to why we weren't all welded in our homes until 103% of the population was vaccinated. 8 times over.
    Yep. Although a monumental twat, I cannot believe that Boris would not realise that as soon as the words "June 21st no more restrictions" were out of his mouth, most of the country would have marked that down as the end date. And all this faff about masks, distancing, etc will be out the window also.

    People have had months to ponder June 21st and it would be a huge electoral gamble for this not to happen.
    I hope you're right, but then I read/hear older people talking about how important it is to be safe. Nick Palmer on here was supporting vaccine passports for indoor hospitality before everyone was vaccinated for example. Over 55s can basically outvote the young with ease.

    We can't just keep locking down forever, even if the results of the disease are horrendous. It's always "just a little longer". I currently feel like the vaccination program is increasingly pointless. Not because I don't believe in vaccination, I will have one as soon as I'm offered, but I question whether there would be any material difference in the steps we've taken to unlock so far without one. If the May and June unlocking are being delayed/cancelled, then what's the point?

    My biggest fear at the moment is that this is all going to be stretched out so that there are ongoing restrictions into Autumn, following which we will of course need to increase restrictions "as a precaution" when cases inevitably rise.
    As I said your mail last night was powerful and typical of many on here - well done for coming out and saying it.

    And all I can say is that I really do think we are coming to the end of this. Any post-June 21st restrictions will be self-implemented (eg. Nick Palmer need not go to the no vaxport pub and choose one where the landlord has decided to use them: eg none). Same with masks and social distancing.

    With the bulk of at risk groups vaccinated we can begin to resume normality. And if the PM decides otherwise because caution then he will have an almighty fight on his hands with his own party and, god help us I hope, with the opposition.
    Interesting post, I think from a political standpoint, Labour's position is crucial. If Sir Keir holds the line about vaxport opposition, it could imply a shift towards the Zoe Williams-style left-libertarian position (not lockdown sceptic as such but certainly lockdown questioning). If that happens, this is over. Labour + CRG is too large a bloc to allow authoritarians in parliament to get their legislation through.

    P.S. Have caught up on the personal testimonies of Mortimer, Dixie, Leon and Matt on the previous thread. Hang in there chaps. I hope that those such as Nick, Gideon and Sandy that preach further restrictions and hardcore enforcement are listening.
    I actually agree with NPXMP on Vaxports (tho I think they should be voluntary, per sector or company). This is not because I view them as a further restriction, quite the opposite. I regard them as a faster way out, a means of opening up QUICKER, and of reassuring the cautious so we can get the economy motoring, esp big city centres, and all the hospitality, theatres and cinemas

    Then we bin them, after a year or so, but we keep them in reserve should we need to do a South Korea on Covid-32


    Sure, if they are voluntary, that's fine. No different to club owners preventing guests from wearing denim on a Friday night – that's their prerogative ROAR.
    Try telling that to the anti-vaxport extremists. They say "oh but if you make them voluntary that is basically compulsory" so we go back round the houses and the argument starts again
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    Sandpit said:

    An eloquent and humourous argument against vaccine passports, from across the Pond. Much better than we’ve seen from British commentators.

    https://spectator.us/topic/hate-vaxport-vaccine-passports-freedom/

    For me, all the arguments for the idea of this dystopian nightmare rest on the premise that the government, Big Tech and corporations have our best interest at heart. This is absurd on its face.

    Here are the questions we should be asking the people in charge of rolling this program out. Why do we need these if the vaccines work? The point of the vaccine is to protect us from the virus when we’re out in the world and it turns out — they’re working! Hooray! These vaccines are a miracle of modern science and we should all be celebrating. Not only that, much of the evidence coming out shows that not only do the vaccines work, but they work against many of the variants, too. Why are people so invested in controlling whether or not everyone around them has the vaccine if this is the case?

    And who are we to force people who might be vaccine-hesitant into getting a vaccine that has only been tested for a year and we have no idea what the long-term side effects will be? I’m happy to take my chances for science and for humanity on this vaccine — but make no mistake — we are all guinea pigs. Given you can’t sue pharmaceutical companies, we are guinea pigs with no recourse. Someone has to do it. I’m OK with it — but I would never force someone who wasn’t comfortable with the idea to get the jab. Their body, their choice — right? Or are we not doing that anymore?

    😥.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    This is a really good article on Macron and the future direction of the EU. The internal politics of the EU are far more complex and nuanced than the cartoon version we get in the UK media, and especially from the Brexiteers:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/european-sovereignty-has-lost-its-biggest-champion-emmanuel-macron/
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    edited April 2021

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say that I absolutely share the anger and frustration of @Maffew, @Black_Rook and others (fpt) at the way the government is behaving. Not just on my behalf but on behalf of my 3 children. They are furious at the idea that they should be locked out of stuff or forced to jump through hoops to do normal stuff like go to a shop.

    I am on their and @Maffew's side and all those who feel like him. We've been protected. Time to open up society again - properly - and let people live freely.

    The problem is, that until we are down into the 40s on vaccinations, opening everything up will result in hospitalisations and an increase in deaths.

    So what should we do?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBHHFnUqo5o
    Will it though? I mean really? I know there’s a cold snap right now but the Cavalry du Sol is on the way. I’ve not seen much evidence to contradict the view that kids are not a particularly serious vector. And give or take a couple of weeks, we are now at about 60% of the adult population with immunity from a vaccine, with perhaps another 10-12% on top of the unvaccinated but previously acquired infection. And the total creeping up with every passing week. And with almost anyone at risk of death having now been vaccinated.

    Come June 21st it is taking the piss to pretend the NHS would be under any risk of strain from a new wave or that we’d see any appreciable excess mortality. And if the government would be so kind as to furnish us with a cost benefit analysis, I’m near certain the costs of continued domestic restrictions outweigh the benefit, even seen through the very narrow prism of years of life saved.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    @ all those getting very down and anxious -

    Is next week not big for you?

    Outdoor pubs, indoor leisure, all shops.

    If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,445
    Maffew said:

    TOPPING said:



    As I said your mail last night was powerful and typical of many on here - well done for coming out and saying it.

    And all I can say is that I really do think we are coming to the end of this. Any post-June 21st restrictions will be self-implemented (eg. Nick Palmer need not go to the no vaxport pub and choose one where the landlord has decided to use them: eg none). Same with masks and social distancing.

    With the bulk of at risk groups vaccinated we can begin to resume normality. And if the PM decides otherwise because caution then he will have an almighty fight on his hands with his own party and, god help us I hope, with the opposition.

    Thanks, I appreciate your kind words.

    Rationally I know you're probably right. I've got two parallel thought processes going on in my head - the rational one where I can look at the numbers and come to the same conclusions as you and the irrational one where I feel utterly powerless and threatened by every media pronouncement or model. I pride myself on being able to think rationally and logically (it's pretty important for my job), but this irrational worrying is another symptom of lockdown.
    I'm in the same boat as you and @Black_Rook, Maffew. Rationally, surely, the government don't want to keep us locked down any longer than necessary. And yet...
    I'm in a better place than I was last Autumn. But this last week or two does feel like we're losing again and drifting back into dystopia.
    Always grateful for more positive voices on here too, though, for putting the things-will-be-ok arguments.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ridaligo said:

    Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.

    As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?

    There are 3 possibilities:

    1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...

    It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).

    I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").

    My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.

    I think there's another suggestion, similar to your #2.

    4.. The vaccine is extremely effective, but the government is terrified themselves because of all the criticism about ignoring SAGE before the second wave and the forthcoming Enquiry into Covid. They're scared that they'll be killed if there is another wave and so are acting with an overabundance of caution.

    They're scared of their own shadow. It is losing my respect to be frank.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,735
    Maffew said:

    The problem is, that until we are down into the 40s on vaccinations, opening everything up will result in hospitalisations and an increase in deaths.

    So what should we do?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBHHFnUqo5o

    Stop briefing to the press that we need ongoing restrictions and that indoor reopening needs to be delayed. That would help. I can only speak for myself, but I can deal with the roadmap. I think it's too slow, but I can deal with that. What I can't deal with is endless backpedalling and goalpost shifting.

    For an example of backpedalling and goalpoast shifting, we appear to have gone from "flatten the curve" to "prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed" to prevent hospitalisations and an increase in deaths.
    The key deal between the public and the govt was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed. That is why we agreed to completely change our lives and careers. The govt expecting us to continue those changes once the NHS is no longer at an imminent or significant threat of being overwhelmed but instead has an unknown small theoretical risk based on virus mutations is not acceptable.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,150
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to harp on the weather, again, but the pathetic fallacy does seem quite forceful at the moment

    We are Narnia, frozen in an endless winter of lockdown. Last week it felt like the thaw was with us - but no. It was a false dawn. Birds peck forlornly at the ice, once more. Tumnus stares at nothing

    It's lovely in Manchester. Bright blue skies, a bit of warmth.
    It did snow yesterday, mind. But only for half an hour.
    I'd say this Spring feels sunnier and perhaps slightly warmer than average.
    5C and partly cloudy in London. If you get out of the wind and turn your sobbing face to the sun, you can feel that it is spring - indeed nearly halfway through spring. If a cloud passes over or you find yourself in shadow, a wintry cold bites deep. Quite odd. Feels like fine weather at high altitude: Bolivia, say. Where the sun can burn you but you don't need a fridge, just store your beers in the frigid shadows (that is literally what they do)

    Anyway, no need for despair, the clocks go back again in just 11 weeks, and we head back into winter
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Well after some prodding and calls I finally got a phone call offering me a jab yesterday. It is to be given at the vaccination centre so I think it is genuine. 3.50 next Monday. It's a relief.

    Have you sorted out with NHS Scotland whether you exist or not? And are on a GP's list?
    I am assuming that I do exist because they were able to phone me. And I can post on PB as well. I don't have enough imagination to make all this up.
    Wait until you wake up from this dream and find that you are in fact a Cornish flint knapper and that PB doesn't exist.
    Arrgh! I think I'd have to invent it. In all seriousness the banter on here has been a great help these last few months.
    I was reading the last few comments on the previous thread. Many PB posters (a robust bunch or we wouldn't be on here) suffering from anxiety and depression. This is horrendous.

    The disease is horrendous also but the govt responding to the current situation - which means some, all, or none of it may be justified - has broken a large number of people such that when we are told we will be allowed to sit on a park bench at some unspecified time in the future, there are tears of joy and gratitude. Extraordinary.

    And it has been clapped (literally) and rewarded in the polls the whole time.
    Well, the clapping was for the NHS not for the liberty clipping. But, yes, that was a tough read, some of that on PT. People struggling. I am a bit too tbh. Nothing terrible but feeling "grey" and lethargic. Snap out if it, kinabalu!

    For me, next week is key. Outdoor pubs, indoor leisure, all shops.

    Haircut, swimming in heated indoor pool, bit of boxing in the gym, beers outside in a weak sun. Huge.
    Blimey. Very active. Going to take your cloth cap and cravat off?
    For the haircut, yes. Least the cap. Cravat is not me. Please remove that from your mental image.
    Might be too late.
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,386
    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:


    And then they wonder why every teacher - and I mean every teacher - is making plans to quit the profession in the next two years. That’s going to be rather expensive in itself given that those aged 55 or over will simply take retirement.

    ?! Must be a generous retirement package compared to the private sector.
    It's only generous if you wait until 60 or your state retirement age (depending on when you joined the scheme). If you go before, you lose a chunk of it. But then, it's not that cheap to pay into, so you only get back what you ut in, (plus rpi).
    You actually lose nothing - it is reduced to take account of the extra years of retirement you potentially have - in my case 12 years sop far. Obviously you also lose because of [potential salary missed. However, I tool the view that toomay late retirees die early so it was a no-brainer.
    Yes, on second thoughts I agree.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,609
    "World’s billionaires have seen their combined wealth soar by $5.1 trillion to $13.1 trillion Forbes reveals as the number of super-rich making the list soars by 660 to 2,755

    The ranks of the ultra-wealthy have expanded even in a year when the coronavirus pandemic upended the global economy
    This year's billionaires are worth a combined $13.1 trillion, up from $8 trillion last year - as the soaring stock market has helped boost investment income
    Bezos had $177B, cementing his spot as the wealthiest billionaire on the list
    Tesla CEO Elon Musk jumped into second spot on with $155B, up from 31st
    The list saw 493 newcomers, including Kim Kardashian"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9440573/Bezos-Musk-Forbes-record-setting-billionaire-list.html
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    @ all those getting very down and anxious -

    Is next week not big for you?

    Outdoor pubs, indoor leisure, all shops.

    If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?

    No.

    I don't want to go to an outdoor pub. I want to visit my grandparents and they aren't healthy enough to be spending time outdoors in the cold. They've had both vaccines but it will still be illegal to visit them in their living room before 17 May. 😠
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    edited April 2021

    ridaligo said:

    Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.

    As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?

    There are 3 possibilities:

    1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...

    It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).

    I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").

    My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.

    See my comment about the bunker mentality: they are continuing to fight the war even though it is ending. Maybe I am wrong and they know something we don't about vaccines. But i don't see how: so much data is in the public domain.

    But I also take your point 3. I am deeply suspicious that somewhere in Whitehall they have seen a golden, once in a generation opportunity to slip a digital identity scheme through to the public on the back of 'safety is paramount' message. We know from previous Home secs that there is always a civil servant waiting to bring such a plan to their attention.

    We must resist!!!
    Re: @ridaligo 's excellent post. I'm pretty sure it is 2).

    Ridaligo says "What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?" - the truth has long been clear that the loss of freedom aspects are not seen as a nightmare. For many it's all about death stats. See Nick’s post at 8:59 this morning.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,138

    Maffew said:

    The problem is, that until we are down into the 40s on vaccinations, opening everything up will result in hospitalisations and an increase in deaths.

    So what should we do?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBHHFnUqo5o

    Stop briefing to the press that we need ongoing restrictions and that indoor reopening needs to be delayed. That would help. I can only speak for myself, but I can deal with the roadmap. I think it's too slow, but I can deal with that. What I can't deal with is endless backpedalling and goalpost shifting.

    For an example of backpedalling and goalpoast shifting, we appear to have gone from "flatten the curve" to "prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed" to prevent hospitalisations and an increase in deaths.
    There are enough people unvaccinated in the hospitalisation vulnerable categories that if we completely unlock now, the hospitals will fill up.

    This is because the hospitalisation vulnerability applies to much lower age groups than the high CFR groups.

    This is why the hospitalisation R remains below, but close to 1.

    image

    At this point someone will probably say - "but it will be hospitalisations without deaths". Well, you can ask Foxy, say, what happens when you run out of medical resources.

    So a careful, phased return to morality is required until we have the vaccinations done into the 40s and with sufficient time to get the immunity going - several weeks after the second vaccination.
    Absolutely. Look at Chile - hospitalisation there are dropping like a stone in the over 70s but they’re facing a huge crisis with their younger cohorts filling up the hospitals. Many more will survive than their elders I am sure but they are taking up a lot of beds.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,781

    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Gavin Williamson, Nick Gibb and every civil servant at the DfE are traitorous, lying, bullying, pig ignorant c-bombs who hate teachers and children part 124a:

    Secondary school pupils to keep wearing masks after Easter
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-56651135

    These people just do not live in the real world. Masks are not merely horrible to wear, they are frequently used by children as playthings, spreading any virus over their hands and their desks, they make it impossible for both deaf children and deaf teachers to function effectively, and finally they are used for prolonged periods and not washed rather than for brief instances and cleaned/disposed of as they are designed to be. Moreover, they allow disruptive children to talk and mutter with impunity, creating constant disruption which makes it impossible to maintain an atmosphere of calm. Goodness knows how we will manage these exams we’re still being forced to do.

    They are also fluent liars. As evidenced by the fact they claimed pupil behaviour was better under Covid (a lie) that their new teaching framework will somehow reduce violence and assaults on staff (another lie) and that only 0.2% of children in school had tested positive for Covid (another lie) and that there would be no exams this year (yet another lie, because they’re still going ahead, it’s just that they are being marked by a different process).

    And then they wonder why every teacher - and I mean every teacher - is making plans to quit the profession in the next two years. That’s going to be rather expensive in itself given that those aged 55 or over will simply take retirement.

    They are just utter, vile scum.

    Why don’t you say what you really think of them...😄
    Because I’d either be prosecuted for incitement to murder, or worse, get banned from PB.
    We cannot have you banned but we do understand the nuance of your comments and with Williamson, it sounds moderate
    When Williamson is elevated to Conservative Prime Minister you will be singing his praises BigG.
    Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes.
    Noooooooo

    And I would resign my membership and become politically homeless

    And you can hold me to that
    ...and rejoin when the dust settles.
    Never ever under Williamson
    I fail to see how Williamson is any more ludicrous than his boss Boris Johnson. They make a perfect double act.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,150
    kinabalu said:

    @ all those getting very down and anxious -

    Is next week not big for you?

    Outdoor pubs, indoor leisure, all shops.

    If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?

    No. Indoors dining, drinking and hotels is the crucial step for me. Sitting at a booked table in a beer garden does not cut it (tho it is welcome) And, also, just being able to walk in to a pub, spontaneously. No more bloody bookings. This is another reason I prefer vaxports, they could do away with bookings. Just flash your QR code at the door, for 2 seconds (I would, like all of us, prefer to be COMPLETELY free)
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,138
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to harp on the weather, again, but the pathetic fallacy does seem quite forceful at the moment

    We are Narnia, frozen in an endless winter of lockdown. Last week it felt like the thaw was with us - but no. It was a false dawn. Birds peck forlornly at the ice, once more. Tumnus stares at nothing

    It's lovely in Manchester. Bright blue skies, a bit of warmth.
    It did snow yesterday, mind. But only for half an hour.
    I'd say this Spring feels sunnier and perhaps slightly warmer than average.
    5C and partly cloudy in London. If you get out of the wind and turn your sobbing face to the sun, you can feel that it is spring - indeed nearly halfway through spring. If a cloud passes over or you find yourself in shadow, a wintry cold bites deep. Quite odd. Feels like fine weather at high altitude: Bolivia, say. Where the sun can burn you but you don't need a fridge, just store your beers in the frigid shadows (that is literally what they do)

    Anyway, no need for despair, the clocks go back again in just 11 weeks, and we head back into winter
    Erm...
  • Options
    ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174

    geoffw said:

    I've had my suspicions for years.

    "The BBC will not make programmes aimed specifically at older viewers because their tastes are too varied, the corporation has said. Instead, the over-50s are urged to enjoy shows made for a “general audience”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/06/bbc-will-not-make-shows-older-viewers-pumping-40m-channel-aimed/

    Do the BBC get that the people who watch the BBC are generally over 50? My daughter (17) never watches it and she is pretty switched on about the world. Only a organization with a guaranteed income could deliberately not make programmes for their actual customers - idiots and ivory tower come to mind.
    Talking of things I don't understand ... as you say, the BBC audience is the 50+ age group who are pretty conservative in their views. Why is the BBC deliberately trying to antagonize its customers by ramming the woke agenda down their throats? For me the BBC is unwatchable apart from the occasional drama (and even those are not exempt from the woke editorial policy).

    The people who pay the license fee currently will either stop paying (an increasing trend) or (sorry to be blunt) die off in coming years; they will not be replaced by the young whose viewing habits revolve around Netflix, Amazon, YouTube, etc.

    So, why is the BBC not catering to it's actual viewing demographic? Even if it doesn't have to care due to its funding model, why is it producing content that no-one will watch? It's like massive trolling operation. It's frankly bizarre.
  • Options
    MaffewMaffew Posts: 235
    kinabalu said:

    @ all those getting very down and anxious -

    Is next week not big for you?

    Outdoor pubs, indoor leisure, all shops.

    If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?

    No not really. Next week is a big improvement, but I'll be committing a criminal offence if I have someone in my home. I still won't be able to practice my main hobby (martial arts) indoors and even when that's permitted it's basically glorified dance until social distancing restrictions are lifted.

    If I do want to go to the pub or a restaurant, capacity is heavily limited and I'll need to book well in advance.

    The 17 May unlocking will take things a lot closer to normality, but this one does not (once again I'm not denying it's an improvement).
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,735
    Andy_JS said:

    "World’s billionaires have seen their combined wealth soar by $5.1 trillion to $13.1 trillion Forbes reveals as the number of super-rich making the list soars by 660 to 2,755

    The ranks of the ultra-wealthy have expanded even in a year when the coronavirus pandemic upended the global economy
    This year's billionaires are worth a combined $13.1 trillion, up from $8 trillion last year - as the soaring stock market has helped boost investment income
    Bezos had $177B, cementing his spot as the wealthiest billionaire on the list
    Tesla CEO Elon Musk jumped into second spot on with $155B, up from 31st
    The list saw 493 newcomers, including Kim Kardashian"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9440573/Bezos-Musk-Forbes-record-setting-billionaire-list.html

    Yet too many are opposed to an ultra wealth tax (I am talking net assets of £50m+ here). How many trillion would it take for that tiny group to own to change minds on what a fair tax would be?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,150

    ridaligo said:

    Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.

    As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?

    There are 3 possibilities:

    1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...

    It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).

    I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").

    My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.

    I think there's another suggestion, similar to your #2.

    4.. The vaccine is extremely effective, but the government is terrified themselves because of all the criticism about ignoring SAGE before the second wave and the forthcoming Enquiry into Covid. They're scared that they'll be killed if there is another wave and so are acting with an overabundance of caution.

    They're scared of their own shadow. It is losing my respect to be frank.
    I am pretty certain your #4 is nearest to the truth, tho I am extremely tired of the phrase "overabundance of caution" in its various pious and irritating forms. One of those things I want to forget, forever, when this is over.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,781
    Lennon said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    FPT

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    The Boris’ name discussion is the dullest debate on PB since the doctors’ date notation classic of the genre.

    For me it's the "West Lothian question".

    Gosh that's a yawner.
    The West Lothian question is one of the most important issues in politics. It's incredible that it still hasn't been resolved after about 45 years.
    I think that's because it's a question with only 2 answers. Reverse devolution or Scottish independence. If both of those are ruled out all one can do is discuss the question without a resolution. Hence my boredom with it.
    Or an English Parliament.

    Or removing altogether non English (or non English and Welsh) MPs from voting on English (or English and Welsh) issues. Not a double majority or relying upon them abstaining, but having them as a separate class of MP able to vote on issues that are their responsibility and not on those that are devolved.
    Yes, but those don't look to me like realistic options. The first would delegitimize the UK parliament and the second is way too fussy. Neither is reversing devolution realistic. And neither is Sindy unless the Scots vote for it. So we're stuck with an unanswerable question. Perhaps it's best to just learn to live with it. There are many questions in life with no answer. And is it really that important? I'm not sure it is. I don't lose much sleep over it.
    Any devolution option has to include a separate English Parliament. That’s the single biggest flaw in the current arrangements.
    But, as I say, that makes a mockery of the UK one. The imbalance in the size of the home nations is just too great for that model to be tenable. Creates more problems than it solves.

    No, I rather fear that in practice it's Sindy or we muddle along not answering the "West Lothian question". Which I think I can live with.
    It’s only not a problem now, because there’s a safe Conservative majority.

    If, at the next election, there’s a clear Conservative majority in England, but a Lab/SNP/PC stitch-up in Westminster, then we have a serious constitutional problem on our hands.

    The government needs to sort this out, one way or the other, before the next election.
    But there is no incentive for either party to sort it out. Conservatives don't want to sort it as the 'threat' of a 'coalition of chaos' means larger vote shares for them, and Labour don't want to sort it out as it works in their favour if they do get in.
    That is the fundamental problem with any kind of constitutional reform. The party of government tries to game the situation for their own enduring advantage. That is what Labour attempted to do with devolution. That clearly turned out well!
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377
    DougSeal said:

    Maffew said:

    The problem is, that until we are down into the 40s on vaccinations, opening everything up will result in hospitalisations and an increase in deaths.

    So what should we do?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBHHFnUqo5o

    Stop briefing to the press that we need ongoing restrictions and that indoor reopening needs to be delayed. That would help. I can only speak for myself, but I can deal with the roadmap. I think it's too slow, but I can deal with that. What I can't deal with is endless backpedalling and goalpost shifting.

    For an example of backpedalling and goalpoast shifting, we appear to have gone from "flatten the curve" to "prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed" to prevent hospitalisations and an increase in deaths.
    There are enough people unvaccinated in the hospitalisation vulnerable categories that if we completely unlock now, the hospitals will fill up.

    This is because the hospitalisation vulnerability applies to much lower age groups than the high CFR groups.

    This is why the hospitalisation R remains below, but close to 1.

    image

    At this point someone will probably say - "but it will be hospitalisations without deaths". Well, you can ask Foxy, say, what happens when you run out of medical resources.

    So a careful, phased return to morality is required until we have the vaccinations done into the 40s and with sufficient time to get the immunity going - several weeks after the second vaccination.
    Absolutely. Look at Chile - hospitalisation there are dropping like a stone in the over 70s but they’re facing a huge crisis with their younger cohorts filling up the hospitals. Many more will survive than their elders I am sure but they are taking up a lot of beds.
    Yup - Chile provides up with a very good example of what happens if you unlock before the vaccine program has reached the younger people.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    edited April 2021
    Cyclefree said:



    ridaligo said:

    Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.

    As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?

    There are 3 possibilities:

    1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...

    It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).

    I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").

    My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.

    It's #3. The only explanation which makes sense to me. The fact that they were making plans for these ID cards last December even as they were telling us to go out and enjoy Xmas tells me that these plans are simply using health as a pretext to extort control and power over us.

    I simply will not do-operate with any of this rubbish. I am going to live my life as a free woman capable of making my own judgments not as some cowering imbecile asking permission to go out of my front door.
    Why doesn't my more prosaic explanation also make sense to you? Latest expression as per my post at 10.08.

    Is this not more likely than that they are planning to bring in an oppressive nationwide high-tech ID and tracking regime by the back door, using Covid as an excuse?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Maffew said:

    kinabalu said:

    @ all those getting very down and anxious -

    Is next week not big for you?

    Outdoor pubs, indoor leisure, all shops.

    If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?

    No not really. Next week is a big improvement, but I'll be committing a criminal offence if I have someone in my home. I still won't be able to practice my main hobby (martial arts) indoors and even when that's permitted it's basically glorified dance until social distancing restrictions are lifted.

    If I do want to go to the pub or a restaurant, capacity is heavily limited and I'll need to book well in advance.

    The 17 May unlocking will take things a lot closer to normality, but this one does not (once again I'm not denying it's an improvement).
    The 17 May unlocking is what should be happening next week. If it was I'd be happy, even waiting until June still for the next step, but stages 2 and 3 should have been combined into one.

    And just saying "break the law" is not a solution. If its considered safe to break the law, it shouldn't be the law.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,432

    kinabalu said:

    @ all those getting very down and anxious -

    Is next week not big for you?

    Outdoor pubs, indoor leisure, all shops.

    If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?

    No.

    I don't want to go to an outdoor pub. I want to visit my grandparents and they aren't healthy enough to be spending time outdoors in the cold. They've had both vaccines but it will still be illegal to visit them in their living room before 17 May. 😠
    It's unfortunate that it's been cold this spring. If we'd had a spring like last year, then outdoor mixing wouldn't be troubling anyone.

    Having said that, there would be a degree of logic in permitting unvaccinated people to visit inside with fully vaccinated people. Doesn't really increase the risks a great deal at the community level (while warning that the vaccines are not 100% and this does increase the risk for the old people being visited a little - it does not need to be illegal). Keep it illegal for you and your unvaccinated siblings to visit each other, or to both visit the grandparents at the same time (as you can spread to each other and drive a new spike).
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    kinabalu said:

    @ all those getting very down and anxious -

    Is next week not big for you?

    Outdoor pubs, indoor leisure, all shops.

    If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?

    Yes, next week is a biggee. I have skiing booked at Snowdome and three pub bookings. I'm feeling grumpy like everyone else this morning but I don't count as I've been grumpy for months.

    Actually "grumpy" is not the word. "Scared and trapped" is closer. Waking up in a panic is a regular theme.
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    edited April 2021
    When is the UK going to stop making it illegal for its own citizens to leave the country? Or detaining British citizens in hotel prisons at their own expense upon their return? That is a huge infringement of civil liberties, written off as "people don't need foreign holibobs", without thought to the many many families separated and unable to reunite, or even just the fact that people shouldn't be judged for wanting a break after all this (and not everyone can afford a UK holiday). Vaccine passports seem like a complete waste of time too, especially given how far along the UK is in the vaccination programme and how high the uptake is.

    The simple fact that the UK has been in lockdown since December is astounding, especially considering how few cases there are now and how many people have been vaccinated. The UK should have started opening up in early March. France may have screwed up on the vaccines but it's worth pointing out that there has been relative freedom with no lockdowns, just restaurant closures, in the country from December to March while there was a plateau of 20K daily cases. The UK is still in lockdown having long since passed it's case peak in Jan. Even now the French lockdown is nowhere near as strict as last year, I just celebrated Easter with in-laws family.

    The 2020 spring lockdowns were justified in that we had no idea what we were dealing with, but now it seems to be a case of staying in lockdown indefinitely until every last case is gone. Something changed in that January wave and the UK has swung too far the other way and become overly terrified of this virus. The UK had 2300 cases yesterday. That's nothing.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    DougSeal said:

    Maffew said:

    The problem is, that until we are down into the 40s on vaccinations, opening everything up will result in hospitalisations and an increase in deaths.

    So what should we do?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBHHFnUqo5o

    Stop briefing to the press that we need ongoing restrictions and that indoor reopening needs to be delayed. That would help. I can only speak for myself, but I can deal with the roadmap. I think it's too slow, but I can deal with that. What I can't deal with is endless backpedalling and goalpost shifting.

    For an example of backpedalling and goalpoast shifting, we appear to have gone from "flatten the curve" to "prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed" to prevent hospitalisations and an increase in deaths.
    There are enough people unvaccinated in the hospitalisation vulnerable categories that if we completely unlock now, the hospitals will fill up.

    This is because the hospitalisation vulnerability applies to much lower age groups than the high CFR groups.

    This is why the hospitalisation R remains below, but close to 1.

    image

    At this point someone will probably say - "but it will be hospitalisations without deaths". Well, you can ask Foxy, say, what happens when you run out of medical resources.

    So a careful, phased return to morality is required until we have the vaccinations done into the 40s and with sufficient time to get the immunity going - several weeks after the second vaccination.
    Absolutely. Look at Chile - hospitalisation there are dropping like a stone in the over 70s but they’re facing a huge crisis with their younger cohorts filling up the hospitals. Many more will survive than their elders I am sure but they are taking up a lot of beds.
    Yup - Chile provides up with a very good example of what happens if you unlock before the vaccine program has reached the younger people.
    But as I understand it, Chile has unlocked at around the point we were at two months ago... I don't think anyone was calling for that here at that point in time.

    To be honest, I'm happy to wait, but at some point this does have to end.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,138
    ridaligo said:

    Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.

    As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?

    There are 3 possibilities:

    1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...

    It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).

    I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").

    My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.

    Covid is not, yet, a minuscule risk. Absolutely not. Smaller, shrinking, but not minuscule.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    edited April 2021
    ridaligo said:

    Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.

    As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?

    There are 3 possibilities:

    1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...

    It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).

    I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").

    My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.

    The vaccines are a huge success story, but they are not a magic wand. The UK has very low Covid prevalence now principally because of a strict lockdown policy, with vaccines taking more and more of the burden as the programme progresses. At some point most of the non-medical interventions can safely be removed - the question is when you pull the trigger. For all of last year successful regimes that balanced freedom to do stuff against public safety, tended to control. This year they will tend to freedom. France and Chile are examples of taking the foot off the brake too early and allowing cases to rise too fast. But we're talking only of being patient for a few more months than some people were hoping, and this won't be at full lockdown either.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    Andy_JS said:
    I'm still clinging to the hope that all this is guff designed to nudge up vaccination take-up. Hope I'm right.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,609
    "Why we must oppose vaccine passports
    They will subject the most everyday of our freedoms to official approval.
    JOSIE APPLETON"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/04/07/why-we-must-oppose-vaccine-passports/
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    FF43 said:

    ridaligo said:

    Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.

    As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?

    There are 3 possibilities:

    1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...

    It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).

    I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").

    My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.

    The vaccines are a huge success story, but they are not a magic wand. The UK has very low Covid prevalence now principally because of a strict lockdown policy, with vaccines taking more and more of the burden as the programme progresses. At some point most of the non-medical interventions can safely be removed - the question is when you pull the trigger. For all of last year successful regimes that balanced freedom to do stuff against public safety, tended to control. This year they will tend to freedom. France and Chile are examples of taking the foot off the brake too early and allowing cases to rise too fast. But we're talking only of being patient for a few more months than some people were hoping, and this won't be at full lockdown either.
    I don't think you can use France and Chile as comparisons given our vaccination success. Vaccines a silver bullet but not a magic wand then?
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    kinabalu said:

    @ all those getting very down and anxious -

    Is next week not big for you?

    Outdoor pubs, indoor leisure, all shops.

    If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?

    No not really. Because the restrictions on the venues means there remains no spontaneity for life and those out and about on the streets are largely still too terrified by propaganda to generate a positive atmosphere. And who wants to go to indoor leisure or shops with a piece of fabric smothering their airways for the duration.

    I want to be in a big crowd of sweaty raucous people that I don’t know, I want to take my son on a train to see the dinosaurs without him looking at everyone suspiciously for wearing a mask or me having to coax him back any time he wanders 2 metres towards a stranger, I want to wander into a cafe unplanned and be able to sit down with a cake, I want to throw a big massive party inviting people I’ve never met because I know more people on this forum than in real life in this country. It would be nice to ring a sodding company without having to listen to “our wait time is long due to the current coooovid situashun”. To turn on the radio without having some overpaid voice telling me to wash my hands. To not have old ladies suspiciously cross the road rather than risk breathing within 3 metres of another human.

    What we need is a big loud announcement from the government saying: “It’s all over. Do what you want, when you want. Stop worrying. And go and live your life”. We certainly don’t need perfidious lingering markers from this reign of terror like obligatory NHS phone apps, “passports” for domestic activity, regular pressers with a pair of unelected balls stood either side of a ministerial dong and continual state propaganda in the media.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377
    ridaligo said:

    geoffw said:

    I've had my suspicions for years.

    "The BBC will not make programmes aimed specifically at older viewers because their tastes are too varied, the corporation has said. Instead, the over-50s are urged to enjoy shows made for a “general audience”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/06/bbc-will-not-make-shows-older-viewers-pumping-40m-channel-aimed/

    Do the BBC get that the people who watch the BBC are generally over 50? My daughter (17) never watches it and she is pretty switched on about the world. Only a organization with a guaranteed income could deliberately not make programmes for their actual customers - idiots and ivory tower come to mind.
    Talking of things I don't understand ... as you say, the BBC audience is the 50+ age group who are pretty conservative in their views. Why is the BBC deliberately trying to antagonize its customers by ramming the woke agenda down their throats? For me the BBC is unwatchable apart from the occasional drama (and even those are not exempt from the woke editorial policy).

    The people who pay the license fee currently will either stop paying (an increasing trend) or (sorry to be blunt) die off in coming years; they will not be replaced by the young whose viewing habits revolve around Netflix, Amazon, YouTube, etc.

    So, why is the BBC not catering to it's actual viewing demographic? Even if it doesn't have to care due to its funding model, why is it producing content that no-one will watch? It's like massive trolling operation. It's frankly bizarre.
    From having met people at the BBC, they have, in a corporate sense, adopted the idea that

    - They are good, decent people with a sensible, unbiased outlook on everything
    - Anyone outside that is.... just wrong.

    There was a hilarious interview with one of the writers for the Archers around the time of the Countryside Alliance marches.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,445
    edited April 2021
    kinabalu said:

    @ all those getting very down and anxious -

    Is next week not big for you?

    Outdoor pubs, indoor leisure, all shops.

    If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?

    No.

    And you make a good and rational point, and my position is only emotional. But it isn't making me feel better.
    I think the reason is that ACTUAL normality - where we can go where we want, see who we want, hug people, not have to wear a sodding facemask, not have to see other people wearing sodding facemasks, not be tracked by government, not be constantly hectored by government, not be constantly hectored by other people - feels like its receding further and further away from us.

    And the official announcements have said the right things about sticking to the timetable, granted, but there are multiple unofficial channels of briefing, and through all of these we are being told that the return to normal won't happen on time, and it won't be to the normal we were hoping for, and it might not be ever. That's why it is difficult not to feel weighed down by gloom.

    And the reason I want to see us unlock now and hang the consequences is because I have no confidence we'll get there ever if we allow government and its advisors to go at their own pace.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,983
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Maffew said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    ridaligo said:

    Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.

    As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?

    There are 3 possibilities:

    1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...

    It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).

    I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").

    My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.

    Good post.

    I think the vaccine probably is effective (look at Israel is the cry here) but that the govt is also sh&t-scared that once people are out and about case rates will rise (who cares) and so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are sitting on a precious amount of goodwill atm and are worried about squandering it.

    Of course they might squander this either way - a resurgence in deaths or continued restrictive measures.

    I think, through gritted teeth, and although I am more with you on dates, I can see the logic for the current timetable.

    That said, let's imagine cases, hosps, and deaths do skyrocket after June21st. Will it be possible to impose another lockdown? There may be a resistance movement but look at the polls.
    My personal theory is that the government in hoping, hoping for #1

    However, they are worried about the following - in the process of unlocking, everyone...er.... goes for it. This causes a third wave of whatever size.

    If it happens before we are down into the 40s for vaccinations that could lead to problems with hospitals.

    It would definitely mean more deaths among the refusnik groups. And among those for whom the vaccine can't be administered for medical reasons.

    One thing the government can be absolutely certain of - that in that case, they will be blamed. Everyone crying out for freedom now, will be demanding answers as to why we weren't all welded in our homes until 103% of the population was vaccinated. 8 times over.
    Yep. Although a monumental twat, I cannot believe that Boris would not realise that as soon as the words "June 21st no more restrictions" were out of his mouth, most of the country would have marked that down as the end date. And all this faff about masks, distancing, etc will be out the window also.

    People have had months to ponder June 21st and it would be a huge electoral gamble for this not to happen.
    I hope you're right, but then I read/hear older people talking about how important it is to be safe. Nick Palmer on here was supporting vaccine passports for indoor hospitality before everyone was vaccinated for example. Over 55s can basically outvote the young with ease.

    We can't just keep locking down forever, even if the results of the disease are horrendous. It's always "just a little longer". I currently feel like the vaccination program is increasingly pointless. Not because I don't believe in vaccination, I will have one as soon as I'm offered, but I question whether there would be any material difference in the steps we've taken to unlock so far without one. If the May and June unlocking are being delayed/cancelled, then what's the point?

    My biggest fear at the moment is that this is all going to be stretched out so that there are ongoing restrictions into Autumn, following which we will of course need to increase restrictions "as a precaution" when cases inevitably rise.
    As I said your mail last night was powerful and typical of many on here - well done for coming out and saying it.

    And all I can say is that I really do think we are coming to the end of this. Any post-June 21st restrictions will be self-implemented (eg. Nick Palmer need not go to the no vaxport pub and choose one where the landlord has decided to use them: eg none). Same with masks and social distancing.

    With the bulk of at risk groups vaccinated we can begin to resume normality. And if the PM decides otherwise because caution then he will have an almighty fight on his hands with his own party and, god help us I hope, with the opposition.
    Interesting post, I think from a political standpoint, Labour's position is crucial. If Sir Keir holds the line about vaxport opposition, it could imply a shift towards the Zoe Williams-style left-libertarian position (not lockdown sceptic as such but certainly lockdown questioning). If that happens, this is over. Labour + CRG is too large a bloc to allow authoritarians in parliament to get their legislation through.

    P.S. Have caught up on the personal testimonies of Mortimer, Dixie, Leon and Matt on the previous thread. Hang in there chaps. I hope that those such as Nick, Gideon and Sandy that preach further restrictions and hardcore enforcement are listening.
    I actually agree with NPXMP on Vaxports (tho I think they should be voluntary, per sector or company). This is not because I view them as a further restriction, quite the opposite. I regard them as a faster way out, a means of opening up QUICKER, and of reassuring the cautious so we can get the economy motoring, esp big city centres, and all the hospitality, theatres and cinemas

    Then we bin them, after a year or so, but we keep them in reserve should we need to do a South Korea on Covid-32


    Sure, if they are voluntary, that's fine. No different to club owners preventing guests from wearing denim on a Friday night – that's their prerogative ROAR.
    Try telling that to the anti-vaxport extremists. They say "oh but if you make them voluntary that is basically compulsory" so we go back round the houses and the argument starts again
    Presumably there's nothing stopping owners from doing that anyway? I mean in the district of London I used to live in, there was a club that only accepted over-25s, banned denim and trainers on blokes and insisted that women wore heels. Ultimately it's up to the owner, as those that don't approve of the entry requirements are free to take their business elsewhere.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,781

    Lennon said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    FPT

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    The Boris’ name discussion is the dullest debate on PB since the doctors’ date notation classic of the genre.

    For me it's the "West Lothian question".

    Gosh that's a yawner.
    The West Lothian question is one of the most important issues in politics. It's incredible that it still hasn't been resolved after about 45 years.
    I think that's because it's a question with only 2 answers. Reverse devolution or Scottish independence. If both of those are ruled out all one can do is discuss the question without a resolution. Hence my boredom with it.
    Or an English Parliament.

    Or removing altogether non English (or non English and Welsh) MPs from voting on English (or English and Welsh) issues. Not a double majority or relying upon them abstaining, but having them as a separate class of MP able to vote on issues that are their responsibility and not on those that are devolved.
    Yes, but those don't look to me like realistic options. The first would delegitimize the UK parliament and the second is way too fussy. Neither is reversing devolution realistic. And neither is Sindy unless the Scots vote for it. So we're stuck with an unanswerable question. Perhaps it's best to just learn to live with it. There are many questions in life with no answer. And is it really that important? I'm not sure it is. I don't lose much sleep over it.
    Any devolution option has to include a separate English Parliament. That’s the single biggest flaw in the current arrangements.
    But, as I say, that makes a mockery of the UK one. The imbalance in the size of the home nations is just too great for that model to be tenable. Creates more problems than it solves.

    No, I rather fear that in practice it's Sindy or we muddle along not answering the "West Lothian question". Which I think I can live with.
    It’s only not a problem now, because there’s a safe Conservative majority.

    If, at the next election, there’s a clear Conservative majority in England, but a Lab/SNP/PC stitch-up in Westminster, then we have a serious constitutional problem on our hands.

    The government needs to sort this out, one way or the other, before the next election.
    But there is no incentive for either party to sort it out. Conservatives don't want to sort it as the 'threat' of a 'coalition of chaos' means larger vote shares for them, and Labour don't want to sort it out as it works in their favour if they do get in.
    That is the fundamental problem with any kind of constitutional reform. The party of government tries to game the situation for their own enduring advantage. That is what Labour attempted to do with devolution. That clearly turned out well!
    ...and by the way, their is a simple answer to the West Lothian Question: Set up an English parliament and use Westminster for UK only law.

    The MPs of the devolved nations could be used as a revising "second chamber" to the devolved assemblies and the House of Lords scrapped. Easy in principle but there isn't the political will to do the job properly
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,150
    FF43 said:

    ridaligo said:

    Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.

    As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?

    There are 3 possibilities:

    1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
    3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...

    It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).

    I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").

    My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.

    The vaccines are a huge success story, but they are not a magic wand. The UK has very low Covid prevalence now principally because of a strict lockdown policy, with vaccines taking more and more of the burden as the programme progresses. At some point most of the non-medical interventions can safely be removed - the question is when you pull the trigger. For all of last year successful regimes that balanced freedom to do stuff against public safety, tended to control. This year they will tend to freedom. France and Chile are examples of taking the foot off the brake too early and allowing cases to rise too fast. But we're talking only of being patient for a few more months than some people were hoping, and this won't be at full lockdown either.
    "A few more months"

    FFS

    It's the lofty and airy vagueness which so annoys people, as if "a few more months" of being in an inhuman prison is not a big deal

    Do you maybe live in a nice big house with a garden? And family around?

    Also: "a few". Like, "it could be two, or, hey, it could be six, does it really matter"
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    kinabalu said:

    @ all those getting very down and anxious -

    Is next week not big for you?

    Outdoor pubs, indoor leisure, all shops.

    If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?

    No. Try sitting in an outdoor pub in the Lakes in the sort of weather we've been having. You risk hypothermia. Daughter's pub is not opening next week because she cannot open profitably on the basis of the conditions being imposed. According to a survey of pubs even of those who open ca. 75% expect to lose money during April.

    If I can go to a shop next week without a certificate why the fuck will I need one in a couple of months time? And why would I go shopping when I cannot go to an indoor cafe to sit down for a coffee and rest? Shopping with a mask is horrible for me because I need glasses. But if I wear them with a mask they steam up so I cannot see. I am actually exempt from mask-wearing because of my asthma but I wear one out of politeness to others, if the shop asks me to.

    None of this is normal. And now the government is talking about extending this for another year and forcing us all to have internal passes as if we were some sort of latter day South Africa. I have gone beyond depression and am seething with anger about it all.

    On top of everything else this government seems intent on destroying what I love best about Britain - a decent, free, tolerant, gently eccentric country.
This discussion has been closed.