Well after some prodding and calls I finally got a phone call offering me a jab yesterday. It is to be given at the vaccination centre so I think it is genuine. 3.50 next Monday. It's a relief.
Have you sorted out with NHS Scotland whether you exist or not? And are on a GP's list?
I am assuming that I do exist because they were able to phone me. And I can post on PB as well. I don't have enough imagination to make all this up.
Wait until you wake up from this dream and find that you are in fact a Cornish flint knapper and that PB doesn't exist.
Arrgh! I think I'd have to invent it. In all seriousness the banter on here has been a great help these last few months.
I was reading the last few comments on the previous thread. Many PB posters (a robust bunch or we wouldn't be on here) suffering from anxiety and depression. This is horrendous.
The disease is horrendous also but the govt responding to the current situation - which means some, all, or none of it may be justified - has broken a large number of people such that when we are told we will be allowed to sit on a park bench at some unspecified time in the future, there are tears of joy and gratitude. Extraordinary.
And it has been clapped (literally) and rewarded in the polls the whole time.
Well, the clapping was for the NHS not for the liberty clipping. But, yes, that was a tough read, some of that on PT. People struggling. I am a bit too tbh. Nothing terrible but feeling "grey" and lethargic. Snap out if it, kinabalu!
For me, next week is key. Outdoor pubs, indoor leisure, all shops.
Haircut, swimming in heated indoor pool, bit of boxing in the gym, beers outside in a weak sun. Huge.
Fair point.
Worth noting, too, that fashion stores are allowed to let you try on the clothes. Not a big one for me, admittedly, as I never go shopping at the best of times, but a biggie for Mrs Anabobazina.
Gavin Williamson, Nick Gibb and every civil servant at the DfE are traitorous, lying, bullying, pig ignorant c-bombs who hate teachers and children part 124a:
These people just do not live in the real world. Masks are not merely horrible to wear, they are frequently used by children as playthings, spreading any virus over their hands and their desks, they make it impossible for both deaf children and deaf teachers to function effectively, and finally they are used for prolonged periods and not washed rather than for brief instances and cleaned/disposed of as they are designed to be. Moreover, they allow disruptive children to talk and mutter with impunity, creating constant disruption which makes it impossible to maintain an atmosphere of calm. Goodness knows how we will manage these exams we’re still being forced to do.
They are also fluent liars. As evidenced by the fact they claimed pupil behaviour was better under Covid (a lie) that their new teaching framework will somehow reduce violence and assaults on staff (another lie) and that only 0.2% of children in school had tested positive for Covid (another lie) and that there would be no exams this year (yet another lie, because they’re still going ahead, it’s just that they are being marked by a different process).
And then they wonder why every teacher - and I mean every teacher - is making plans to quit the profession in the next two years. That’s going to be rather expensive in itself given that those aged 55 or over will simply take retirement.
They are just utter, vile scum.
Why don’t you say what you really think of them...😄
Because I’d either be prosecuted for incitement to murder, or worse, get banned from PB.
We cannot have you banned but we do understand the nuance of your comments and with Williamson, it sounds moderate
When Williamson is elevated to Conservative Prime Minister you will be singing his praises BigG.
Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes.
Noooooooo
And I would resign my membership and become politically homeless
And you can hold me to that
...and rejoin when the dust settles.
Never ever under Williamson
I fail to see how Williamson is any more ludicrous than his boss Boris Johnson. They make a perfect double act.
I think that is the least surprising remark today to be honest
The government took risks in December and tried very hard to take risks at Christmas. The result was carnage in January and they got a lot of stick for it. It is hardly surprising that with that recent experience they are acting somewhat cautiously. That said the SAGE approach is depressing, its hard to believe that the threatened Inquiry is not already making people more cautious so no one can point the finger at them. The government needs to be brave enough to withstand this.
This week I got my hair cut for the first time since December. It was very welcome but the shops in town were still all shut as were the cafes and the bars. Fairly soon, on the 26th I think, we will be allowed to have a drink outside but not inside. It is my daughter's birthday on the 28th so we are booked in to go out then. I seriously hope it will be warmer.
My productivity is falling ever closer to zero and its a problem as I am actually busy. Its hard to motivate yourself when faced with a life with so little joy in it. We just need to hang on for another month. Things will get better. Surely.
One change that would make epidemiological sense would be to cancel all group 5 - 9 second doses and plough through the rest of the population instead, "heading back round" to a second jab once everyone is done. Obviously won't happen but it would be the best use of doses.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Covid is not, yet, a minuscule risk. Absolutely not. Smaller, shrinking, but not minuscule.
Sorry but it is, deaths are below average now. We have negative excess deaths.
There is no excuse not to be at Stage 3 already, July 2020 restrictions. The vulnerable have been vaccinated, deaths are below average, R has collapsed and we are past the point of share of people vaccinated that Israel was at when they lifted restrictions.
I haver supported the restrictions and thought they acted too slowly previously, but I now think they are so terrified of the unlikely need for another lockdown they are being far too cautious about loosening up.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
The vaccines are a huge success story, but they are not a magic wand. The UK has very low Covid prevalence now principally because of a strict lockdown policy, with vaccines taking more and more of the burden as the programme progresses. At some point most of the non-medical interventions can safely be removed - the question is when you pull the trigger. For all of last year successful regimes that balanced freedom to do stuff against public safety, tended to control. This year they will tend to freedom. France and Chile are examples of taking the foot off the brake too early and allowing cases to rise too fast. But we're talking only of being patient for a few more months than some people were hoping, and this won't be at full lockdown either.
Absolutely, completely wrong. You squeeze the trigger, you don't pull it.
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
No not really. Next week is a big improvement, but I'll be committing a criminal offence if I have someone in my home. I still won't be able to practice my main hobby (martial arts) indoors and even when that's permitted it's basically glorified dance until social distancing restrictions are lifted.
If I do want to go to the pub or a restaurant, capacity is heavily limited and I'll need to book well in advance.
The 17 May unlocking will take things a lot closer to normality, but this one does not (once again I'm not denying it's an improvement).
The 17 May unlocking is what should be happening next week. If it was I'd be happy, even waiting until June still for the next step, but stages 2 and 3 should have been combined into one.
And just saying "break the law" is not a solution. If its considered safe to break the law, it shouldn't be the law.
It's not safe because infection numbers are still too high.
And that's the point that people miss when things reopen the R0 number will be higher. And that is an issue unless the number of infected people are so low that it's almost meaningless.
An R0 of 2+ is a problem if you start with 100,000 infected people, it's not really an issue if you start at 100 or 1000.
The vaccines are a huge success story, but they are not a magic wand. The UK has very low Covid prevalence now principally because of a strict lockdown policy, with vaccines taking more and more of the burden as the programme progresses. At some point most of the non-medical interventions can safely be removed - the question is when you pull the trigger. For all of last year successful regimes that balanced freedom to do stuff against public safety, tended to control. This year they will tend to freedom. France and Chile are examples of taking the foot off the brake too early and allowing cases to rise too fast. But we're talking only of being patient for a few more months than some people were hoping, and this won't be at full lockdown either.
"Just a few more months".
It's like nuclear fusion. Most people have said they can live with the roadmap even if they think it's too slow. Go any slower than that and we're back into autumn and Boris Johnson saying "alas out of an overabundance of caution we must take action now."
I'm still clinging to the hope that all this is guff designed to nudge up vaccination take-up. Hope I'm right.
Whichever consultant came up with that idea needs to learn about bloody-mindedness. We don't have a problem with vaccine hesitancy and shouldn't risk creating one by linking it to this policy.
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
No. Try sitting in an outdoor pub in the Lakes in the sort of weather we've been having. You risk hypothermia. Daughter's pub is not opening next week because she cannot open profitably on the basis of the conditions being imposed. According to a survey of pubs even of those who open ca. 75% expect to lose money during April.
If I can go to a shop next week without a certificate why the fuck will I need one in a couple of months time? And why would I go shopping when I cannot go to an indoor cafe to sit down for a coffee and rest? Shopping with a mask is horrible for me because I need glasses. But if I wear them with a mask they steam up so I cannot see. I am actually exempt from mask-wearing because of my asthma but I wear one out of politeness to others, if the shop asks me to.
None of this is normal. And now the government is talking about extending this for another year and forcing us all to have internal passes as if we were some sort of latter day South Africa. I have gone beyond depression and am seething with anger about it all.
On top of everything else this government seems intent on destroying what I love best about Britain - a decent, free, tolerant, gently eccentric country.
You say that none of this is normal but it is being normalised and the longer this stretches on the more this will become so. I think many big-staters are quite content with this.
On pubs: our local, a large Mitchells and Butlers affair, has announced it is not opening either despite having gardens. "No profitability" the manager has, largely because by staying closed it can continue to bill the taxpayer for furloughed staff wages.
I've said a few times that Sunak ceasing his aid packages will be key to ending all of this.
The vaccines are a huge success story, but they are not a magic wand. The UK has very low Covid prevalence now principally because of a strict lockdown policy, with vaccines taking more and more of the burden as the programme progresses. At some point most of the non-medical interventions can safely be removed - the question is when you pull the trigger. For all of last year successful regimes that balanced freedom to do stuff against public safety, tended to control. This year they will tend to freedom. France and Chile are examples of taking the foot off the brake too early and allowing cases to rise too fast. But we're talking only of being patient for a few more months than some people were hoping, and this won't be at full lockdown either.
"Just a few more months".
It's like nuclear fusion. Most people have said they can live with the roadmap even if they think it's too slow. Go any slower than that and we're back into autumn and Boris Johnson saying "alas out of an overabundance of caution we must take action now."
As I said your mail last night was powerful and typical of many on here - well done for coming out and saying it.
And all I can say is that I really do think we are coming to the end of this. Any post-June 21st restrictions will be self-implemented (eg. Nick Palmer need not go to the no vaxport pub and choose one where the landlord has decided to use them: eg none). Same with masks and social distancing.
With the bulk of at risk groups vaccinated we can begin to resume normality. And if the PM decides otherwise because caution then he will have an almighty fight on his hands with his own party and, god help us I hope, with the opposition.
Thanks, I appreciate your kind words.
Rationally I know you're probably right. I've got two parallel thought processes going on in my head - the rational one where I can look at the numbers and come to the same conclusions as you and the irrational one where I feel utterly powerless and threatened by every media pronouncement or model. I pride myself on being able to think rationally and logically (it's pretty important for my job), but this irrational worrying is another symptom of lockdown.
The worrying has proved time and time again to not be irrational.
I'd say this statement is flat out wrong. It's a rewrite of history unless you and I have been living through different pandemics. Again and again during this whole wretched episode the virus has been underestimated and that worry is the one which has consistently been proved right. The worry about the government imposing lockdowns too early or without justification has tended to be proved wrong. And the current outbreak of worry about the roadmap being reneged on, or vaccine passports coming in, or long term compulsory masks and distancing etc, all of that remains at this point just that - people worrying. I don't criticize people for this (unless they succumb to silly conspiracy theory type stuff about the Surveillance State, and even then only gently, since it can be healthy to worry about such things), but as of now the evidence is not imo there to justify it.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
It's #3. The only explanation which makes sense to me. The fact that they were making plans for these ID cards last December even as they were telling us to go out and enjoy Xmas tells me that these plans are simply using health as a pretext to extort control and power over us.
I simply will not do-operate with any of this rubbish. I am going to live my life as a free woman capable of making my own judgments not as some cowering imbecile asking permission to go out of my front door.
Why doesn't my more prosaic explanation also make sense to you? Latest expression as per my post at 10.08.
Is this not more likely than that they are planning to bring in an oppressive nationwide high-tech ID and tracking regime by the back door, using Covid as an excuse?
Two reasons.
1) I don't trust the government. 2) The evidence which is coming out about the amount of effort which has already been put into developing ID cards.
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
No not really. Next week is a big improvement, but I'll be committing a criminal offence if I have someone in my home. I still won't be able to practice my main hobby (martial arts) indoors and even when that's permitted it's basically glorified dance until social distancing restrictions are lifted.
If I do want to go to the pub or a restaurant, capacity is heavily limited and I'll need to book well in advance.
The 17 May unlocking will take things a lot closer to normality, but this one does not (once again I'm not denying it's an improvement).
The 17 May unlocking is what should be happening next week. If it was I'd be happy, even waiting until June still for the next step, but stages 2 and 3 should have been combined into one.
And just saying "break the law" is not a solution. If its considered safe to break the law, it shouldn't be the law.
It's not safe because infection numbers are still too high.
And that's the point that people miss when things reopen the R0 number will be higher. And that is an issue unless the number of infected people are so low that it's almost meaningless.
An R0 of 2+ is a problem if you start with 100,000 infected people, it's not really an issue if you start at 100 or 1000.
Herd immunity is technically in the SEIR model when "natural" R0 heads below 1. You still get cases on the tail. What's the natural R0 of Covid in this country if we had no restrictions ? Probably a bit higher than prepandemic, everyone's like a coiled spring itching for freedom ! I thought I was off to a pub garden after my run last night, then remembered it was next week. Restrictions prior to and a bit after herd immunity is achieved do kill off tail cases.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
The vaccines are a huge success story, but they are not a magic wand. The UK has very low Covid prevalence now principally because of a strict lockdown policy, with vaccines taking more and more of the burden as the programme progresses. At some point most of the non-medical interventions can safely be removed - the question is when you pull the trigger. For all of last year successful regimes that balanced freedom to do stuff against public safety, tended to control. This year they will tend to freedom. France and Chile are examples of taking the foot off the brake too early and allowing cases to rise too fast. But we're talking only of being patient for a few more months than some people were hoping, and this won't be at full lockdown either.
"A few more months"
FFS
It's the lofty and airy vagueness which so annoys people, as if "a few more months" of being in an inhuman prison is not a big deal
Do you maybe live in a nice big house with a garden? And family around?
Also: "a few". Like, "it could be two, or, hey, it could be six, does it really matter"
You can't game an epidemic. Surely that's the lesson we should have learnt from last year, and if you haven't, just take a look at that horrible death-ridden peak in January. For once the Johnson government is doing something right. GIve them the space to carry on doing it, allow the vaccine effects to get out there and keep taking some sensible and hopefully not burdensome precautions for the time-being and we will be absolutely fine
"World’s billionaires have seen their combined wealth soar by $5.1 trillion to $13.1 trillion Forbes reveals as the number of super-rich making the list soars by 660 to 2,755
The ranks of the ultra-wealthy have expanded even in a year when the coronavirus pandemic upended the global economy This year's billionaires are worth a combined $13.1 trillion, up from $8 trillion last year - as the soaring stock market has helped boost investment income Bezos had $177B, cementing his spot as the wealthiest billionaire on the list Tesla CEO Elon Musk jumped into second spot on with $155B, up from 31st The list saw 493 newcomers, including Kim Kardashian"
Yet too many are opposed to an ultra wealth tax (I am talking net assets of £50m+ here). How many trillion would it take for that tiny group to own to change minds on what a fair tax would be?
My opposition to an ultra-wealth tax isn't because I support the current unequal distribution of wealth. I'm opposed on the grounds that it is likely to be counter productive, and the ultra-wealthy will just go elsewhere. The ultra-wealthy didn't get ultra-wealthy by not caring too much about money. If it's going to cost them a chunk of their wealth to reside in the UK, they will live somewhere where this doesn't apply. We will be more equal, as a result, because the ultra-wealthy will no longer be here. But the poor will be no richer, and the exchequer will be considerably poorer.
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
As I said your mail last night was powerful and typical of many on here - well done for coming out and saying it.
And all I can say is that I really do think we are coming to the end of this. Any post-June 21st restrictions will be self-implemented (eg. Nick Palmer need not go to the no vaxport pub and choose one where the landlord has decided to use them: eg none). Same with masks and social distancing.
With the bulk of at risk groups vaccinated we can begin to resume normality. And if the PM decides otherwise because caution then he will have an almighty fight on his hands with his own party and, god help us I hope, with the opposition.
Thanks, I appreciate your kind words.
Rationally I know you're probably right. I've got two parallel thought processes going on in my head - the rational one where I can look at the numbers and come to the same conclusions as you and the irrational one where I feel utterly powerless and threatened by every media pronouncement or model. I pride myself on being able to think rationally and logically (it's pretty important for my job), but this irrational worrying is another symptom of lockdown.
The worrying has proved time and time again to not be irrational.
I'd say this statement is flat out wrong. It's a rewrite of history unless you and I have been living through different pandemics. Again and again during this whole wretched episode the virus has been underestimated and that worry is the one which has consistently been proved right. The worry about the government imposing lockdowns too early or without justification has tended to be proved wrong. And the current outbreak of worry about the roadmap being reneged on, or vaccine passports coming in, or long term compulsory masks and distancing etc, all of that remains at this point just that - people worrying. I don't criticize people for this (unless they succumb to silly conspiracy theory type stuff about the Surveillance State, and even then only gently, since it can be healthy to worry about such things), but as of now the evidence is not imo there to justify it.
If the government were genuinely worried about a mutant strain of the virus impervious to existing vaccines, it would have taken effective action to limit who can enter the country and imposed strict and effective quarantine arrangements on those few let in.
It has done neither of these things and continues not to. Instead all of its efforts are focused on controlling what vaccinated people can do here. It is nonsense on stilts.
So either the government consists of utter morons. Or it has another agenda.
As I said your mail last night was powerful and typical of many on here - well done for coming out and saying it.
And all I can say is that I really do think we are coming to the end of this. Any post-June 21st restrictions will be self-implemented (eg. Nick Palmer need not go to the no vaxport pub and choose one where the landlord has decided to use them: eg none). Same with masks and social distancing.
With the bulk of at risk groups vaccinated we can begin to resume normality. And if the PM decides otherwise because caution then he will have an almighty fight on his hands with his own party and, god help us I hope, with the opposition.
Thanks, I appreciate your kind words.
Rationally I know you're probably right. I've got two parallel thought processes going on in my head - the rational one where I can look at the numbers and come to the same conclusions as you and the irrational one where I feel utterly powerless and threatened by every media pronouncement or model. I pride myself on being able to think rationally and logically (it's pretty important for my job), but this irrational worrying is another symptom of lockdown.
Your last sentence is acute imo. I'm sure that is part of it. This strange, constricted half-life is not conducive to keeping normal levels of humour, logic and perspective. Also applies to me, I hasten to add.
As I said your mail last night was powerful and typical of many on here - well done for coming out and saying it.
And all I can say is that I really do think we are coming to the end of this. Any post-June 21st restrictions will be self-implemented (eg. Nick Palmer need not go to the no vaxport pub and choose one where the landlord has decided to use them: eg none). Same with masks and social distancing.
With the bulk of at risk groups vaccinated we can begin to resume normality. And if the PM decides otherwise because caution then he will have an almighty fight on his hands with his own party and, god help us I hope, with the opposition.
Thanks, I appreciate your kind words.
Rationally I know you're probably right. I've got two parallel thought processes going on in my head - the rational one where I can look at the numbers and come to the same conclusions as you and the irrational one where I feel utterly powerless and threatened by every media pronouncement or model. I pride myself on being able to think rationally and logically (it's pretty important for my job), but this irrational worrying is another symptom of lockdown.
The worrying has proved time and time again to not be irrational.
I'd say this statement is flat out wrong. It's a rewrite of history unless you and I have been living through different pandemics. Again and again during this whole wretched episode the virus has been underestimated and that worry is the one which has consistently been proved right. The worry about the government imposing lockdowns too early or without justification has tended to be proved wrong. And the current outbreak of worry about the roadmap being reneged on, or vaccine passports coming in, or long term compulsory masks and distancing etc, all of that remains at this point just that - people worrying. I don't criticize people for this (unless they succumb to silly conspiracy theory type stuff about the Surveillance State, and even then only gently, since it can be healthy to worry about such things), but as of now the evidence is not imo there to justify it.
Yes, on reflection I'll largely give you that. I've certainly not underestimated the virus but many have I agree. In a header I wrote at the end of March last year I said: "We failed to accept the near inevitability that almost all of us will become infected with Covid-19 at some point and that 0.5-1% of those that do will die." That implied about 200k people. The vaccines will surely produce an outcome lower than this, at least in the short to medium term. This is why the advent of the vaccines moderated my position somewhat is respect of lockdowns, because of the light at the end of a short length tunnel. I want to make sure the tunnel stays of short length.
The vaccines are a huge success story, but they are not a magic wand. The UK has very low Covid prevalence now principally because of a strict lockdown policy, with vaccines taking more and more of the burden as the programme progresses. At some point most of the non-medical interventions can safely be removed - the question is when you pull the trigger. For all of last year successful regimes that balanced freedom to do stuff against public safety, tended to control. This year they will tend to freedom. France and Chile are examples of taking the foot off the brake too early and allowing cases to rise too fast. But we're talking only of being patient for a few more months than some people were hoping, and this won't be at full lockdown either.
"Just a few more months".
It's like nuclear fusion. Most people have said they can live with the roadmap even if they think it's too slow. Go any slower than that and we're back into autumn and Boris Johnson saying "alas out of an overabundance of caution we must take action now."
Also, it's been 'just a few more months' since March last year. Freedom was always three or four months away. Freedom is still three or four months away. It's just looking less and less credible.
It is cold here this morning and those out are heavily wrapped up but the view of our snow covered mountains from the warmth of our playroom window reminds us just how beautiful it can be but also the hidden dangers for those who venture into the mountains ill-equipped and put at risk our mountain rescue teams
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
Personally if all of you agree I would go and see them if it means that much to you. Sod what some government department has dreamt up as a law. Without going into specifics i have disregarded the lockdown laws as and when I feel they have been stupid and OTT and I wanted or my family wanted to do something I considered more important than panderign to this covid panic.
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
That's hard Philip. We can see a real difference in my mother in law. She has aged markedly in the last few months. She is spending far too much time alone. She has too little to do. My wife does what she can, takes her shopping and takes her to church but its not enough. She really, really needs to get out and about again soon or it will never happen.
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
Go and see them. When the law’s an ass you should have no compunction about breaking the law.
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
No not really. Next week is a big improvement, but I'll be committing a criminal offence if I have someone in my home. I still won't be able to practice my main hobby (martial arts) indoors and even when that's permitted it's basically glorified dance until social distancing restrictions are lifted.
If I do want to go to the pub or a restaurant, capacity is heavily limited and I'll need to book well in advance.
The 17 May unlocking will take things a lot closer to normality, but this one does not (once again I'm not denying it's an improvement).
The 17 May unlocking is what should be happening next week. If it was I'd be happy, even waiting until June still for the next step, but stages 2 and 3 should have been combined into one.
And just saying "break the law" is not a solution. If its considered safe to break the law, it shouldn't be the law.
It's not safe because infection numbers are still too high.
And that's the point that people miss when things reopen the R0 number will be higher. And that is an issue unless the number of infected people are so low that it's almost meaningless.
An R0 of 2+ is a problem if you start with 100,000 infected people, it's not really an issue if you start at 100 or 1000.
Herd immunity is technically in the SEIR model when "natural" R0 heads below 1. You still get cases on the tail. What's the natural R0 of Covid in this country if we had no restrictions ? Probably a bit higher than prepandemic, everyone's like a coiled spring itching for freedom ! I thought I was off to a pub garden after my run last night, then remembered it was next week. Restrictions prior to and a bit after herd immunity is achieved do kill off tail cases.
Supposedly R0 of the Kent strain is somewhere between 3 and 4 (which you can see from the speed it spread in December).
so with 50% of people vaccinated it's likely that were we to open things up now R0 will be somewhere between 1.5 and 2 which means there is still a possibility of things breaking out again.
Which is why we need to keep things locked down for a while longer, it's not nice but it's way better than the other option, which is another lockdown later this year.
Talking of tv, if you are looking for something that is solid watch, City on a Hill....
Quite enjoyed the first few episodes but (like a lot of stuff nowadays) it tailed off for me. Owes a helluva a lot to George V. Higgins superior chronicling of Boston low life and legal system, one of his early novels was even called A City on a Hill.
George V Higgins is a superb writer. The books written as if they were entirely conversations about what had happened seen from different perspectives were just superb. Never really read anything quite like them. May even dig them out again.
Yep, he was one of my favourites when I had favourite writers. Seems to have fallen out of the public consciousness a bit nowadays. The Friends of Eddy Coyle is one of those relatively rare things, a great film of a great book.
Never heard of him but just ordered the book, so thanks for the recommendation and @DavidL
"World’s billionaires have seen their combined wealth soar by $5.1 trillion to $13.1 trillion Forbes reveals as the number of super-rich making the list soars by 660 to 2,755
The ranks of the ultra-wealthy have expanded even in a year when the coronavirus pandemic upended the global economy This year's billionaires are worth a combined $13.1 trillion, up from $8 trillion last year - as the soaring stock market has helped boost investment income Bezos had $177B, cementing his spot as the wealthiest billionaire on the list Tesla CEO Elon Musk jumped into second spot on with $155B, up from 31st The list saw 493 newcomers, including Kim Kardashian"
Yet too many are opposed to an ultra wealth tax (I am talking net assets of £50m+ here). How many trillion would it take for that tiny group to own to change minds on what a fair tax would be?
My opposition to an ultra-wealth tax isn't because I support the current unequal distribution of wealth. I'm opposed on the grounds that it is likely to be counter productive, and the ultra-wealthy will just go elsewhere. The ultra-wealthy didn't get ultra-wealthy by not caring too much about money. If it's going to cost them a chunk of their wealth to reside in the UK, they will live somewhere where this doesn't apply. We will be more equal, as a result, because the ultra-wealthy will no longer be here. But the poor will be no richer, and the exchequer will be considerably poorer.
That is fair enough but I think that can be overcome, particularly if there is a consensus amongst leading Western nations. Even a majority of Americans support a tax on the super elite so it should be do-able. If the billionaires want to take their chances in Russia or China so be it (and they will essentially be paying a form of wealth tax there as well).
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
No. Try sitting in an outdoor pub in the Lakes in the sort of weather we've been having. You risk hypothermia. Daughter's pub is not opening next week because she cannot open profitably on the basis of the conditions being imposed. According to a survey of pubs even of those who open ca. 75% expect to lose money during April.
If I can go to a shop next week without a certificate why the fuck will I need one in a couple of months time? And why would I go shopping when I cannot go to an indoor cafe to sit down for a coffee and rest? Shopping with a mask is horrible for me because I need glasses. But if I wear them with a mask they steam up so I cannot see. I am actually exempt from mask-wearing because of my asthma but I wear one out of politeness to others, if the shop asks me to.
None of this is normal. And now the government is talking about extending this for another year and forcing us all to have internal passes as if we were some sort of latter day South Africa. I have gone beyond depression and am seething with anger about it all.
On top of everything else this government seems intent on destroying what I love best about Britain - a decent, free, tolerant, gently eccentric country.
You say that none of this is normal but it is being normalised and the longer this stretches on the more this will become so. I think many big-staters are quite content with this.
On pubs: our local, a large Mitchells and Butlers affair, has announced it is not opening either despite having gardens. "No profitability" the manager has, largely because by staying closed it can continue to bill the taxpayer for furloughed staff wages.
I've said a few times that Sunak ceasing his aid packages will be key to ending all of this.
One of our locals is actively encouraging people to turn up at 11am on Monday. What it could be like I dread to think! However........I might! Another has, effectively, scrapped it's car park, although it's not being as active in encouraging customers. Yet. A third, a chain,. doesn't seem to be doing anything much. Not sure what the wine bar is doing, although it has a different clientele to the pubs, and a clientele that appears to be drawn from a much wider area. One of our 'fancy restaurants doesn't appear to be doing anything much but the other has obviously been working on it's garden.
Another pub, in the next small town, is focussing hard on it's food trade, and as it has a very nice 'outside' area, beside a river, should probably do so.
Essex of course is normally drier and warmer than the S.Western Lakes.
"World’s billionaires have seen their combined wealth soar by $5.1 trillion to $13.1 trillion Forbes reveals as the number of super-rich making the list soars by 660 to 2,755
The ranks of the ultra-wealthy have expanded even in a year when the coronavirus pandemic upended the global economy This year's billionaires are worth a combined $13.1 trillion, up from $8 trillion last year - as the soaring stock market has helped boost investment income Bezos had $177B, cementing his spot as the wealthiest billionaire on the list Tesla CEO Elon Musk jumped into second spot on with $155B, up from 31st The list saw 493 newcomers, including Kim Kardashian"
Yet too many are opposed to an ultra wealth tax (I am talking net assets of £50m+ here). How many trillion would it take for that tiny group to own to change minds on what a fair tax would be?
Then problem with an ultra wealth tax is that it won't raise much money.
The other problem is that they own things.
What happens to employment, for example, if you take 20% of the wealth from Timpson or Theo Paphitis?
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
No not really. Next week is a big improvement, but I'll be committing a criminal offence if I have someone in my home. I still won't be able to practice my main hobby (martial arts) indoors and even when that's permitted it's basically glorified dance until social distancing restrictions are lifted.
If I do want to go to the pub or a restaurant, capacity is heavily limited and I'll need to book well in advance.
The 17 May unlocking will take things a lot closer to normality, but this one does not (once again I'm not denying it's an improvement).
The 17 May unlocking is what should be happening next week. If it was I'd be happy, even waiting until June still for the next step, but stages 2 and 3 should have been combined into one.
And just saying "break the law" is not a solution. If its considered safe to break the law, it shouldn't be the law.
It's not safe because infection numbers are still too high.
And that's the point that people miss when things reopen the R0 number will be higher. And that is an issue unless the number of infected people are so low that it's almost meaningless.
An R0 of 2+ is a problem if you start with 100,000 infected people, it's not really an issue if you start at 100 or 1000.
Herd immunity is technically in the SEIR model when "natural" R0 heads below 1. You still get cases on the tail. What's the natural R0 of Covid in this country if we had no restrictions ? Probably a bit higher than prepandemic, everyone's like a coiled spring itching for freedom ! I thought I was off to a pub garden after my run last night, then remembered it was next week. Restrictions prior to and a bit after herd immunity is achieved do kill off tail cases.
Supposedly R0 of the Kent strain is somewhere between 3 and 4 (which you can see from the speed it spread in December).
so with 50% of people vaccinated it's likely that were we to open things up now R0 will be somewhere between 1.5 and 2 which means there is still a possibility of things breaking out again.
Which is why we need to keep things locked down for a while longer, it's not nice but it's way better than the other option, which is another lockdown later this year.
Gov't was expecting to vax adults by the end of May. The likely delay till end of July is the inconvienient spanner in the works.
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
I'm so sorry to read that. I agree with your earlier comments about "just break the law" not being an appropriate response and I completely understand if you feel you can't. That being said, based on my own experience I'd say sometimes you should still say f*** it.
I was in a similar situation with my grandfather last year. He was in a care home and they simply banned visits for most of the year. I ended up going only twice, not because I didn't want to (although it was some distance away so not particularly easy), but simply because the restrictions made it utterly pointless. All the care home would do was open his window a crack and put his chair vaguely near it. For a man in his 90s with limited ability to hear or speak clearly.... It just turned visiting into an exercise in frustration and misery. He couldn't hear anything I said and I couldn't understand a word he said. We couldn't even see each other clearly because of the bloody net curtains. This is now one of my greatest regrets, I don't know that I could or would do anything differently if I went back in time, but...
Anyway, he died during the late autumn (not of covid) and I (if we're taking a generous interpretation) bent the Rules to go see him in hospital before that. I don't regret it for one second. What I do regret is my inability to properly visit him the care home before
Having had my cruise for May 17th cancelled I have now been able to rebook for August. It will be a mystery tour leaving Southampton and returning in 7 days. The captain will decide where we go depending on the weather- in search of the sun!
"The BBC will not make programmes aimed specifically at older viewers because their tastes are too varied, the corporation has said. Instead, the over-50s are urged to enjoy shows made for a “general audience”.
Do the BBC get that the people who watch the BBC are generally over 50? My daughter (17) never watches it and she is pretty switched on about the world. Only a organization with a guaranteed income could deliberately not make programmes for their actual customers - idiots and ivory tower come to mind.
Talking of things I don't understand ... as you say, the BBC audience is the 50+ age group who are pretty conservative in their views. Why is the BBC deliberately trying to antagonize its customers by ramming the woke agenda down their throats? For me the BBC is unwatchable apart from the occasional drama (and even those are not exempt from the woke editorial policy).
The people who pay the license fee currently will either stop paying (an increasing trend) or (sorry to be blunt) die off in coming years; they will not be replaced by the young whose viewing habits revolve around Netflix, Amazon, YouTube, etc.
So, why is the BBC not catering to it's actual viewing demographic? Even if it doesn't have to care due to its funding model, why is it producing content that no-one will watch? It's like massive trolling operation. It's frankly bizarre.
From having met people at the BBC, they have, in a corporate sense, adopted the idea that
- They are good, decent people with a sensible, unbiased outlook on everything - Anyone outside that is.... just wrong.
There was a hilarious interview with one of the writers for the Archers around the time of the Countryside Alliance marches.
To them theyre not been woke, they are just been 'good people'.
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
No not really. Next week is a big improvement, but I'll be committing a criminal offence if I have someone in my home. I still won't be able to practice my main hobby (martial arts) indoors and even when that's permitted it's basically glorified dance until social distancing restrictions are lifted.
If I do want to go to the pub or a restaurant, capacity is heavily limited and I'll need to book well in advance.
The 17 May unlocking will take things a lot closer to normality, but this one does not (once again I'm not denying it's an improvement).
The 17 May unlocking is what should be happening next week. If it was I'd be happy, even waiting until June still for the next step, but stages 2 and 3 should have been combined into one.
And just saying "break the law" is not a solution. If its considered safe to break the law, it shouldn't be the law.
It's not safe because infection numbers are still too high.
And that's the point that people miss when things reopen the R0 number will be higher. And that is an issue unless the number of infected people are so low that it's almost meaningless.
An R0 of 2+ is a problem if you start with 100,000 infected people, it's not really an issue if you start at 100 or 1000.
Herd immunity is technically in the SEIR model when "natural" R0 heads below 1. You still get cases on the tail. What's the natural R0 of Covid in this country if we had no restrictions ? Probably a bit higher than prepandemic, everyone's like a coiled spring itching for freedom ! I thought I was off to a pub garden after my run last night, then remembered it was next week. Restrictions prior to and a bit after herd immunity is achieved do kill off tail cases.
Supposedly R0 of the Kent strain is somewhere between 3 and 4 (which you can see from the speed it spread in December).
so with 50% of people vaccinated it's likely that were we to open things up now R0 will be somewhere between 1.5 and 2 which means there is still a possibility of things breaking out again.
Which is why we need to keep things locked down for a while longer, it's not nice but it's way better than the other option, which is another lockdown later this year.
yes but the people who are going to die from this have been vaccinated. This is just scaremongering and over obsession with a illness now that should be treated like flu
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
No not really. Next week is a big improvement, but I'll be committing a criminal offence if I have someone in my home. I still won't be able to practice my main hobby (martial arts) indoors and even when that's permitted it's basically glorified dance until social distancing restrictions are lifted.
If I do want to go to the pub or a restaurant, capacity is heavily limited and I'll need to book well in advance.
The 17 May unlocking will take things a lot closer to normality, but this one does not (once again I'm not denying it's an improvement).
The 17 May unlocking is what should be happening next week. If it was I'd be happy, even waiting until June still for the next step, but stages 2 and 3 should have been combined into one.
And just saying "break the law" is not a solution. If its considered safe to break the law, it shouldn't be the law.
It's not safe because infection numbers are still too high.
And that's the point that people miss when things reopen the R0 number will be higher. And that is an issue unless the number of infected people are so low that it's almost meaningless.
An R0 of 2+ is a problem if you start with 100,000 infected people, it's not really an issue if you start at 100 or 1000.
Herd immunity is technically in the SEIR model when "natural" R0 heads below 1. You still get cases on the tail. What's the natural R0 of Covid in this country if we had no restrictions ? Probably a bit higher than prepandemic, everyone's like a coiled spring itching for freedom ! I thought I was off to a pub garden after my run last night, then remembered it was next week. Restrictions prior to and a bit after herd immunity is achieved do kill off tail cases.
Supposedly R0 of the Kent strain is somewhere between 3 and 4 (which you can see from the speed it spread in December).
so with 50% of people vaccinated it's likely that were we to open things up now R0 will be somewhere between 1.5 and 2 which means there is still a possibility of things breaking out again.
Which is why we need to keep things locked down for a while longer, it's not nice but it's way better than the other option, which is another lockdown later this year.
Don’t forget the circa 10-12% on top of unvaccinated but acquired immunity. And the millions more that will receive a first dose by early June in time for the “end of restrictions”.
There is no justification for anything beyond that date, beyond potentially border vigilance while we ramp up domestic vax production in case needed for a variant booster.
The Conservatives are therefore up 4% on the 38% they got in the County council elections last time they were up in 2017, Labour are up 7% on the 27% they got in the last County elections and the LDs are down 11% on the 18% they got then. So on that basis we should see a few Labour gains from the Conservatives in the County elections and both the Conservatives and Labour should make gains from the LDs (albeit the LDs tend to poll a bit better locally than nationally).
When the district council seats up this year were last up in 2016 however the Conservatives only got 30%, so they are now up 12% on that total, Labour are also up 3% on the 31% they got in 2016. The LDs however are again down 8% on their share then. So the district elections in May should see the Tories make some gains from Labour and again the Tories and Labour should make gains from the Liberal Democrats
I have yet to check the figures but am pretty sure that back in May 2017 when The Tory PNS from the local elections came out at 38% their national poll ratings were at 45% plus.
"World’s billionaires have seen their combined wealth soar by $5.1 trillion to $13.1 trillion Forbes reveals as the number of super-rich making the list soars by 660 to 2,755
The ranks of the ultra-wealthy have expanded even in a year when the coronavirus pandemic upended the global economy This year's billionaires are worth a combined $13.1 trillion, up from $8 trillion last year - as the soaring stock market has helped boost investment income Bezos had $177B, cementing his spot as the wealthiest billionaire on the list Tesla CEO Elon Musk jumped into second spot on with $155B, up from 31st The list saw 493 newcomers, including Kim Kardashian"
Yet too many are opposed to an ultra wealth tax (I am talking net assets of £50m+ here). How many trillion would it take for that tiny group to own to change minds on what a fair tax would be?
Then problem with an ultra wealth tax is that it won't raise much money.
Warren's wealth tax would raise $300bn a year in the US, and thats only on net worth over $50m.
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
While we haven't any gt. grandchildren yet...... daren't ask either 'appropriate' grandchild, we must, from the sound of it be of a similar sort of age, and, yes, it's hard. We've kept in touch electronically, BUT IT'S NOT THE SAME.
We do sometimes wonder if we'll ever really see the son who has moved to and settled in Thailand 'for real' or his wife and children; eldest is now looking over the horizon at university; that was once an option but of course she now counts as overseas, so it will be cheaper and easier for her elsewhere.
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
If you’re convinced it’s wrong them just visit them. I have seen my parents and my in laws several times a week throughout the whole thing. I don’t see how you can be outraged at what you think is govt stupidity yet go along with it?
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
No not really. Next week is a big improvement, but I'll be committing a criminal offence if I have someone in my home. I still won't be able to practice my main hobby (martial arts) indoors and even when that's permitted it's basically glorified dance until social distancing restrictions are lifted.
If I do want to go to the pub or a restaurant, capacity is heavily limited and I'll need to book well in advance.
The 17 May unlocking will take things a lot closer to normality, but this one does not (once again I'm not denying it's an improvement).
The 17 May unlocking is what should be happening next week. If it was I'd be happy, even waiting until June still for the next step, but stages 2 and 3 should have been combined into one.
And just saying "break the law" is not a solution. If its considered safe to break the law, it shouldn't be the law.
It's not safe because infection numbers are still too high.
And that's the point that people miss when things reopen the R0 number will be higher. And that is an issue unless the number of infected people are so low that it's almost meaningless.
An R0 of 2+ is a problem if you start with 100,000 infected people, it's not really an issue if you start at 100 or 1000.
Herd immunity is technically in the SEIR model when "natural" R0 heads below 1. You still get cases on the tail. What's the natural R0 of Covid in this country if we had no restrictions ? Probably a bit higher than prepandemic, everyone's like a coiled spring itching for freedom ! I thought I was off to a pub garden after my run last night, then remembered it was next week. Restrictions prior to and a bit after herd immunity is achieved do kill off tail cases.
Supposedly R0 of the Kent strain is somewhere between 3 and 4 (which you can see from the speed it spread in December).
so with 50% of people vaccinated it's likely that were we to open things up now R0 will be somewhere between 1.5 and 2 which means there is still a possibility of things breaking out again.
Which is why we need to keep things locked down for a while longer, it's not nice but it's way better than the other option, which is another lockdown later this year.
Don’t forget the circa 10-12% on top of unvaccinated but acquired immunity. And the millions more that will receive a first dose by early June in time for the “end of restrictions”.
There is no justification for anything beyond that date, beyond potentially border vigilance while we ramp up domestic vax production in case needed for a variant booster.
I'm not saying there is currently any justification to continue restrictions post June, but there are currently plenty of reasons to keep that June date in place contrary to the demands of some posters here.
Yes it may be over cautious but the risk otherwise is way too great.
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
No not really. Next week is a big improvement, but I'll be committing a criminal offence if I have someone in my home. I still won't be able to practice my main hobby (martial arts) indoors and even when that's permitted it's basically glorified dance until social distancing restrictions are lifted.
If I do want to go to the pub or a restaurant, capacity is heavily limited and I'll need to book well in advance.
The 17 May unlocking will take things a lot closer to normality, but this one does not (once again I'm not denying it's an improvement).
The 17 May unlocking is what should be happening next week. If it was I'd be happy, even waiting until June still for the next step, but stages 2 and 3 should have been combined into one.
And just saying "break the law" is not a solution. If its considered safe to break the law, it shouldn't be the law.
It's not safe because infection numbers are still too high.
And that's the point that people miss when things reopen the R0 number will be higher. And that is an issue unless the number of infected people are so low that it's almost meaningless.
An R0 of 2+ is a problem if you start with 100,000 infected people, it's not really an issue if you start at 100 or 1000.
Herd immunity is technically in the SEIR model when "natural" R0 heads below 1. You still get cases on the tail. What's the natural R0 of Covid in this country if we had no restrictions ? Probably a bit higher than prepandemic, everyone's like a coiled spring itching for freedom ! I thought I was off to a pub garden after my run last night, then remembered it was next week. Restrictions prior to and a bit after herd immunity is achieved do kill off tail cases.
Supposedly R0 of the Kent strain is somewhere between 3 and 4 (which you can see from the speed it spread in December).
so with 50% of people vaccinated it's likely that were we to open things up now R0 will be somewhere between 1.5 and 2 which means there is still a possibility of things breaking out again.
Which is why we need to keep things locked down for a while longer, it's not nice but it's way better than the other option, which is another lockdown later this year.
yes but the people who are going to die from this have been vaccinated. This is just scaremongering and over obsession with a illness now that should be treated like flu
If you fill the hospitals, then people will be dying.
Having had my cruise for May 17th cancelled I have now been able to rebook for August. It will be a mystery tour leaving Southampton and returning in 7 days. The captain will decide where we go depending on the weather- in search of the sun!
Enjoy your cruise up the Lincolnshire coast - Skeggy , Mablethorpe
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
It's #3. The only explanation which makes sense to me. The fact that they were making plans for these ID cards last December even as they were telling us to go out and enjoy Xmas tells me that these plans are simply using health as a pretext to extort control and power over us.
I simply will not do-operate with any of this rubbish. I am going to live my life as a free woman capable of making my own judgments not as some cowering imbecile asking permission to go out of my front door.
Why doesn't my more prosaic explanation also make sense to you? Latest expression as per my post at 10.08.
Is this not more likely than that they are planning to bring in an oppressive nationwide high-tech ID and tracking regime by the back door, using Covid as an excuse?
Two reasons.
1) I don't trust the government. 2) The evidence which is coming out about the amount of effort which has already been put into developing ID cards.
No argument with (1). Indeed I'm saying they are being deceptive in pretending there's a serious chance of doing most of the the stuff they say they are considering. (2) I'll pass on. Except to say they put a lot of effort into track and trace too, didn't they? Incompetence eats effort for breakfast.
And are they "morons" (as per your other post)? Yep, but not politically. Far from it.
But ok, so we'll see. My prediction is it's mainly all talk (being aired and sponsored for the reasons I set out) and that post June 21 and the end stage domestic reopening, we will be close enough to normality as to fairly and accurately describe it that way. And crucially it will feel normal. There will be no proving of covid status in order to go about a full and normal daily life in this country.
If I'm wrong I'll bake a large humble pie and send you a piece.
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
Very sorry to hear that. Absolutely understand your wife's feelings on the matter. The challenge will be when things are legal again (soon, very soon) to change the mindset because after all nothing else really will have changed.
It is everyone's personal choice and each of these must be respected. As people on here will know (if they have been paying attention to my posts and who hasn't?) I have been to see my 91-yr old mother regularly including pre-vaccine to play chess and have a glass of wine and chat (she's deaf as a post) and going through my mind was of course the "what if" question. Difficult to say how I would have felt even if I tried to rationalise the fact that her housekeeper comes in regularly and she has toddled to the shops often.
What I can say, however, is that some of those visits were very, very necessary for her (and because of this, my) mental well-being. It picked her up for weeks. So that was my (edit: our) choice but there are no easy choices here.
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
If you’re convinced it’s wrong them just visit them. I have seen my parents and my in laws several times a week throughout the whole thing. I don’t see how you can be outraged at what you think is govt stupidity yet go along with it?
Some of us don't like to casually break the law, even where we think it's wrong or stupid. Philip may also be in a similar position to me being in a regulated profession where getting caught breaking the law could have serious career-limiting consequences.
"World’s billionaires have seen their combined wealth soar by $5.1 trillion to $13.1 trillion Forbes reveals as the number of super-rich making the list soars by 660 to 2,755
The ranks of the ultra-wealthy have expanded even in a year when the coronavirus pandemic upended the global economy This year's billionaires are worth a combined $13.1 trillion, up from $8 trillion last year - as the soaring stock market has helped boost investment income Bezos had $177B, cementing his spot as the wealthiest billionaire on the list Tesla CEO Elon Musk jumped into second spot on with $155B, up from 31st The list saw 493 newcomers, including Kim Kardashian"
Yet too many are opposed to an ultra wealth tax (I am talking net assets of £50m+ here). How many trillion would it take for that tiny group to own to change minds on what a fair tax would be?
Then problem with an ultra wealth tax is that it won't raise much money.
Warren's wealth tax would raise $300bn a year in the US, and thats only on net worth over $50m.
She makes the totally naive assumption that those affected wouldn’t change their behaviour in response to it. She also fails to understand that the compounding effect over time would reduce the tax base substantially.
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
That's hard Philip. We can see a real difference in my mother in law. She has aged markedly in the last few months. She is spending far too much time alone. She has too little to do. My wife does what she can, takes her shopping and takes her to church but its not enough. She really, really needs to get out and about again soon or it will never happen.
Indeed. This is exacerbating my worries, my parents have been visiting my grandparents for supporting them and have been mentioning that my nan is deteriorating and losing weight, when she didn't have much to begin with. She will eat with visitors around but not much when its just her and my grandad alone together.
When it comes to legally visiting each other, the "cure" is doing more harm than the disease right now.
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
Necessary visits to people in need has always been allowed AFAIK. And who cares if it isn't. I'd go and I think your wife is wrong.
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
If you’re convinced it’s wrong them just visit them. I have seen my parents and my in laws several times a week throughout the whole thing. I don’t see how you can be outraged at what you think is govt stupidity yet go along with it?
Some of us don't like to casually break the law, even where we think it's wrong or stupid. Philip may also be in a similar position to me being in a regulated profession where getting caught breaking the law could have serious career-limiting consequences.
Caught visiting your family during a pandemic is hardly likely to have serious career-limiting consequences
Talking of tv, if you are looking for something that is solid watch, City on a Hill....
Quite enjoyed the first few episodes but (like a lot of stuff nowadays) it tailed off for me. Owes a helluva a lot to George V. Higgins superior chronicling of Boston low life and legal system, one of his early novels was even called A City on a Hill.
George V Higgins is a superb writer. The books written as if they were entirely conversations about what had happened seen from different perspectives were just superb. Never really read anything quite like them. May even dig them out again.
Yep, he was one of my favourites when I had favourite writers. Seems to have fallen out of the public consciousness a bit nowadays. The Friends of Eddy Coyle is one of those relatively rare things, a great film of a great book.
Never heard of him but just ordered the book, so thanks for the recommendation and @DavidL
His books are very heavily dialogue based so it takes a wee while to get into the rhythm of them, but well worth the effort imho.
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
No not really. Next week is a big improvement, but I'll be committing a criminal offence if I have someone in my home. I still won't be able to practice my main hobby (martial arts) indoors and even when that's permitted it's basically glorified dance until social distancing restrictions are lifted.
If I do want to go to the pub or a restaurant, capacity is heavily limited and I'll need to book well in advance.
The 17 May unlocking will take things a lot closer to normality, but this one does not (once again I'm not denying it's an improvement).
The 17 May unlocking is what should be happening next week. If it was I'd be happy, even waiting until June still for the next step, but stages 2 and 3 should have been combined into one.
And just saying "break the law" is not a solution. If its considered safe to break the law, it shouldn't be the law.
It's not safe because infection numbers are still too high.
And that's the point that people miss when things reopen the R0 number will be higher. And that is an issue unless the number of infected people are so low that it's almost meaningless.
An R0 of 2+ is a problem if you start with 100,000 infected people, it's not really an issue if you start at 100 or 1000.
Herd immunity is technically in the SEIR model when "natural" R0 heads below 1. You still get cases on the tail. What's the natural R0 of Covid in this country if we had no restrictions ? Probably a bit higher than prepandemic, everyone's like a coiled spring itching for freedom ! I thought I was off to a pub garden after my run last night, then remembered it was next week. Restrictions prior to and a bit after herd immunity is achieved do kill off tail cases.
Supposedly R0 of the Kent strain is somewhere between 3 and 4 (which you can see from the speed it spread in December).
so with 50% of people vaccinated it's likely that were we to open things up now R0 will be somewhere between 1.5 and 2 which means there is still a possibility of things breaking out again.
Which is why we need to keep things locked down for a while longer, it's not nice but it's way better than the other option, which is another lockdown later this year.
Don’t forget the circa 10-12% on top of unvaccinated but acquired immunity. And the millions more that will receive a first dose by early June in time for the “end of restrictions”.
There is no justification for anything beyond that date, beyond potentially border vigilance while we ramp up domestic vax production in case needed for a variant booster.
I'm not saying there is currently any justification to continue restrictions post June, but there are currently plenty of reasons to keep that June date in place contrary to the demands of some posters here.
Yes it may be over cautious but the risk otherwise is way too great.
I think most posters really just want an end to the lofty drumbeat of "just a few more months", "no earlier than", "socially distanced, of course", and the dismal Sage reports and the endless effing moralising. If it's 21 June, then fine, but enough already of the drip, drip, drip that it might be longer.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
It's #3. The only explanation which makes sense to me. The fact that they were making plans for these ID cards last December even as they were telling us to go out and enjoy Xmas tells me that these plans are simply using health as a pretext to extort control and power over us.
I simply will not do-operate with any of this rubbish. I am going to live my life as a free woman capable of making my own judgments not as some cowering imbecile asking permission to go out of my front door.
Why doesn't my more prosaic explanation also make sense to you? Latest expression as per my post at 10.08.
Is this not more likely than that they are planning to bring in an oppressive nationwide high-tech ID and tracking regime by the back door, using Covid as an excuse?
Two reasons.
1) I don't trust the government. 2) The evidence which is coming out about the amount of effort which has already been put into developing ID cards.
No argument with (1). Indeed I'm saying they are being deceptive in pretending there's a serious chance of doing most of the the stuff they say they are considering. (2) I'll pass on. Except to say they put a lot of effort into track and trace too, didn't they? Incompetence eats effort for breakfast.
And are they "morons" (as per your other post)? Yep, but not politically. Far from it.
But ok, so we'll see. My prediction is it's mainly all talk (being aired and sponsored for the reasons I set out) and that post June 21 and the end stage domestic reopening, we will be close enough to normality as to fairly and accurately describe it that way. And crucially it will feel normal. There will be no proving of covid status in order to go about a full and normal daily life in this country.
If I'm wrong I'll bake a large humble pie and send you a piece.
I hope I am wrong on this. But I think you will only be proved right if we push back on this pernicious idea now.
I am afraid that my default assumption is never to trust those who are in power or want power but to keep a very beady eye on them indeed - and at all times. They need to be reminded daily that they are our servants not our masters.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
The vaccines are a huge success story, but they are not a magic wand. The UK has very low Covid prevalence now principally because of a strict lockdown policy, with vaccines taking more and more of the burden as the programme progresses. At some point most of the non-medical interventions can safely be removed - the question is when you pull the trigger. For all of last year successful regimes that balanced freedom to do stuff against public safety, tended to control. This year they will tend to freedom. France and Chile are examples of taking the foot off the brake too early and allowing cases to rise too fast. But we're talking only of being patient for a few more months than some people were hoping, and this won't be at full lockdown either.
Absolutely, completely wrong. You squeeze the trigger, you don't pull it.
Having had my cruise for May 17th cancelled I have now been able to rebook for August. It will be a mystery tour leaving Southampton and returning in 7 days. The captain will decide where we go depending on the weather- in search of the sun!
Interesting that there's now calls for Moderna to be reserved for under 50s, I expect the same to be the for Novavax and the remaining 13m Pfizer doses once the second jabs are done for the last one. Over 50s will get the AZ vaccine first and second and I think the government is going to shift to the other three for under 50s. Moderna is 8.5m people's worth in Q2, Pfizer we have 6.5m people's worth in Q2 and Novavax we'll get around 3m people's worth per month from May onwards.
Now that there are so few over 50s left it makes sense to reserve the incoming AZ doses for them as most are now going to be people who previously refused.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
It's #3. The only explanation which makes sense to me. The fact that they were making plans for these ID cards last December even as they were telling us to go out and enjoy Xmas tells me that these plans are simply using health as a pretext to extort control and power over us.
I simply will not do-operate with any of this rubbish. I am going to live my life as a free woman capable of making my own judgments not as some cowering imbecile asking permission to go out of my front door.
Why doesn't my more prosaic explanation also make sense to you? Latest expression as per my post at 10.08.
Is this not more likely than that they are planning to bring in an oppressive nationwide high-tech ID and tracking regime by the back door, using Covid as an excuse?
Two reasons.
1) I don't trust the government. 2) The evidence which is coming out about the amount of effort which has already been put into developing ID cards.
No argument with (1). Indeed I'm saying they are being deceptive in pretending there's a serious chance of doing most of the the stuff they say they are considering. (2) I'll pass on. Except to say they put a lot of effort into track and trace too, didn't they? Incompetence eats effort for breakfast.
And are they "morons" (as per your other post)? Yep, but not politically. Far from it.
But ok, so we'll see. My prediction is it's mainly all talk (being aired and sponsored for the reasons I set out) and that post June 21 and the end stage domestic reopening, we will be close enough to normality as to fairly and accurately describe it that way. And crucially it will feel normal. There will be no proving of covid status in order to go about a full and normal daily life in this country.
If I'm wrong I'll bake a large humble pie and send you a piece.
Cookie's five tests of normality: Will we have moved to the stage where we don't have to wear masks in shops/leisure settings/public transport? Will we still have regular government advertising about coronavirus? Will we be able to have parties (e.g. 50 people in a house)? Will we be able to buy a drink at a bar in a pub, rather than wait at a table? Will we be able to arrive at a cafe without having to give our contact details?
I'm not trying to make a point here - I'm genuinely interested in what you think? My guesses are that we will largely fail them all. But very happy to hear from more optimistic posters.
I'm no fan of this government (a gross understatement), but I don't share the doom and gloom of so many on here.
The government set out a roadmap with which most broadly agreed, in the context of a horrendous death and illness toll in January/February. It's now April. Yes, it was a cautious roadmap - understandable given the history of the virus and some uncertainty about the efficacy of vaccines. That uncertainty has diminished massively, but not completely. As far as I can tell, the government is sticking to the roadmap and restrictions will be eased next week, and more significantly on May 17th and then in June. If the government backtracks on the roadmap without good reason I'll join the complainants, but there's no sign of that yet.
Meanwhile, while the restrictions are a complete pain, they are increasingly less arduous, especially as people interpret them more sensibly. We've started having visitors to the house, because we know infections locally are now very low. The police have not knocked on our door, nor will they. I leave the house several times a day. Next Monday, my daughter has booked a table at a beachfront bar from 2pm - 8pm; we shall visit in shifts of six.
I just wonder if a bit of patience would be wise. We should man the barricades if/when it is clear that conspiracies about extending lockdown and enforcing ID cards are imminent, but not while they are still theoretical risks that I don't actually think will happen.
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
Necessary visits to people in need has always been allowed AFAIK. And who cares if it isn't. I'd go and I think your wife is wrong.
Philip, the whole bloody country was breaking the law this weekend, me included. No need to be a martyr.
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
If you’re convinced it’s wrong them just visit them. I have seen my parents and my in laws several times a week throughout the whole thing. I don’t see how you can be outraged at what you think is govt stupidity yet go along with it?
Some of us don't like to casually break the law, even where we think it's wrong or stupid. Philip may also be in a similar position to me being in a regulated profession where getting caught breaking the law could have serious career-limiting consequences.
Well then frankly he (or anyone else) has to look themselves in the mirror and decide what is more important - a very small risk of getting caught and an even more small risk of any long lasting career consequence and seeing his grandparents for what might be the last time. Each to their own but I wouls say the second option is more the one most people in his position woudl choose.
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
Necessary visits to people in need has always been allowed AFAIK. And who cares if it isn't. I'd go and I think your wife is wrong.
Philip, the whole bloody country was breaking the law this weekend, me included. No need to be a martyr.
Not up to him, if his wife isn't comfortable breaking the rules.
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
No. Try sitting in an outdoor pub in the Lakes in the sort of weather we've been having. You risk hypothermia. Daughter's pub is not opening next week because she cannot open profitably on the basis of the conditions being imposed. According to a survey of pubs even of those who open ca. 75% expect to lose money during April.
If I can go to a shop next week without a certificate why the fuck will I need one in a couple of months time? And why would I go shopping when I cannot go to an indoor cafe to sit down for a coffee and rest? Shopping with a mask is horrible for me because I need glasses. But if I wear them with a mask they steam up so I cannot see. I am actually exempt from mask-wearing because of my asthma but I wear one out of politeness to others, if the shop asks me to.
None of this is normal. And now the government is talking about extending this for another year and forcing us all to have internal passes as if we were some sort of latter day South Africa. I have gone beyond depression and am seething with anger about it all.
On top of everything else this government seems intent on destroying what I love best about Britain - a decent, free, tolerant, gently eccentric country.
I loathe it as much you do. That said, I do think the government wants to ensure that once restrictions are lifted, there is no going back.
I'm no fan of this government (a gross understatement), but I don't share the doom and gloom of so many on here.
The government set out a roadmap with which most broadly agreed, in the context of a horrendous death and illness toll in January/February. It's now April. Yes, it was a cautious roadmap - understandable given the history of the virus and some uncertainty about the efficacy of vaccines. That uncertainty has diminished massively, but not completely. As far as I can tell, the government is sticking to the roadmap and restrictions will be eased next week, and more significantly on May 17th and then in June. If the government backtracks on the roadmap without good reason I'll join the complainants, but there's no sign of that yet.
Meanwhile, while the restrictions are a complete pain, they are increasingly less arduous, especially as people interpret them more sensibly. We've started having visitors to the house, because we know infections locally are now very low. The police have not knocked on our door, nor will they. I leave the house several times a day. Next Monday, my daughter has booked a table at a beachfront bar from 2pm - 8pm; we shall visit in shifts of six.
I just wonder if a bit of patience would be wise. We should man the barricades if/when it is clear that conspiracies about extending lockdown and enforcing ID cards are imminent, but not while they are still theoretical risks that I don't actually think will happen.
As Germany goes into lockdown!
Completely agree with you, it seems totally bizarre
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
Necessary visits to people in need has always been allowed AFAIK. And who cares if it isn't. I'd go and I think your wife is wrong.
Philip, the whole bloody country was breaking the law this weekend, me included. No need to be a martyr.
Not up to him, if his wife isn't comfortable breaking the rules.
It’s a sign of how warped our society has become in just one year that you can say this.
The decision rests with Philip and his grandparents, no one else.
"World’s billionaires have seen their combined wealth soar by $5.1 trillion to $13.1 trillion Forbes reveals as the number of super-rich making the list soars by 660 to 2,755
The ranks of the ultra-wealthy have expanded even in a year when the coronavirus pandemic upended the global economy This year's billionaires are worth a combined $13.1 trillion, up from $8 trillion last year - as the soaring stock market has helped boost investment income Bezos had $177B, cementing his spot as the wealthiest billionaire on the list Tesla CEO Elon Musk jumped into second spot on with $155B, up from 31st The list saw 493 newcomers, including Kim Kardashian"
Yet too many are opposed to an ultra wealth tax (I am talking net assets of £50m+ here). How many trillion would it take for that tiny group to own to change minds on what a fair tax would be?
Then problem with an ultra wealth tax is that it won't raise much money.
Warren's wealth tax would raise $300bn a year in the US, and thats only on net worth over $50m.
She makes the totally naive assumption that those affected wouldn’t change their behaviour in response to it. She also fails to understand that the compounding effect over time would reduce the tax base substantially.
If the wealth is rising by $5 trillion a year, lets assume for back of envelope purposes a quarter of that is in the US. So net worth increasing by $1.25 trillion and $300 bn new tax, puts the compounding effect over time clearly in the opposite direction to that you suggest.
The system is so rigged in favour of asset holders that a 2 or 3% tax on the super elite wont slow them down very much at all.
Interesting that there's now calls for Moderna to be reserved for under 50s, I expect the same to be the for Novavax and the remaining 13m Pfizer doses once the second jabs are done for the last one. Over 50s will get the AZ vaccine first and second and I think the government is going to shift to the other three for under 50s. Moderna is 8.5m people's worth in Q2, Pfizer we have 6.5m people's worth in Q2 and Novavax we'll get around 3m people's worth per month from May onwards.
Now that there are so few over 50s left it makes sense to reserve the incoming AZ doses for them as most are now going to be people who previously refused.
I asked this below but as you are the most likely person to know I will ask again
Is Moderna being used for vaccinations in the EU at the moment or are they just using Pfizer and AZ?
This is quite amusing from the BBC: A kayaker thought to have breached Covid rules by travelling from England to camp at Loch Lomond had to be rescued after getting stuck on an island without a paddle.
Apparently he didn't tie the paddle to the kayak and while he was having a walk it drifted off.
I'm no fan of this government (a gross understatement), but I don't share the doom and gloom of so many on here.
The government set out a roadmap with which most broadly agreed, in the context of a horrendous death and illness toll in January/February. It's now April. Yes, it was a cautious roadmap - understandable given the history of the virus and some uncertainty about the efficacy of vaccines. That uncertainty has diminished massively, but not completely. As far as I can tell, the government is sticking to the roadmap and restrictions will be eased next week, and more significantly on May 17th and then in June. If the government backtracks on the roadmap without good reason I'll join the complainants, but there's no sign of that yet.
Meanwhile, while the restrictions are a complete pain, they are increasingly less arduous, especially as people interpret them more sensibly. We've started having visitors to the house, because we know infections locally are now very low. The police have not knocked on our door, nor will they. I leave the house several times a day. Next Monday, my daughter has booked a table at a beachfront bar from 2pm - 8pm; we shall visit in shifts of six.
I just wonder if a bit of patience would be wise. We should man the barricades if/when it is clear that conspiracies about extending lockdown and enforcing ID cards are imminent, but not while they are still theoretical risks that I don't actually think will happen.
Yes, I'm broadly with you. I think the problem for me is that I don't trust the government, particularly given its predilection for following lumpen opinion over science and principle. Johnson want to be liked, and I don't think that's doing us any favours. If the road map is adhered to (inc international travel 17 May (in conjunction with traffic light system) ) then I'll heave a huge sigh of relief.
Even if AZ does cause clots, and if we assume every clot will be fatal, and that the second dose is as likely to get you as the first dose, then you could still fully vaccinate the entire Brazilian population for fewer deaths than COVID-19 takes in Brazil in one day. Maybe even as low as a tenth of those daily deaths.
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
Necessary visits to people in need has always been allowed AFAIK. And who cares if it isn't. I'd go and I think your wife is wrong.
Philip, the whole bloody country was breaking the law this weekend, me included. No need to be a martyr.
Not up to him, if his wife isn't comfortable breaking the rules.
It’s a sign of how warped our society has become in just one year that you can say this.
The decision rests with Philip and his grandparents, no one else.
You ignore the feelings of your other half do you?
It is cold here this morning and those out are heavily wrapped up but the view of our snow covered mountains from the warmth of our playroom window reminds us just how beautiful it can be but also the hidden dangers for those who venture into the mountains ill-equipped and put at risk our mountain rescue teams
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
It's #3. The only explanation which makes sense to me. The fact that they were making plans for these ID cards last December even as they were telling us to go out and enjoy Xmas tells me that these plans are simply using health as a pretext to extort control and power over us.
I simply will not do-operate with any of this rubbish. I am going to live my life as a free woman capable of making my own judgments not as some cowering imbecile asking permission to go out of my front door.
Why doesn't my more prosaic explanation also make sense to you? Latest expression as per my post at 10.08.
Is this not more likely than that they are planning to bring in an oppressive nationwide high-tech ID and tracking regime by the back door, using Covid as an excuse?
Two reasons.
1) I don't trust the government. 2) The evidence which is coming out about the amount of effort which has already been put into developing ID cards.
No argument with (1). Indeed I'm saying they are being deceptive in pretending there's a serious chance of doing most of the the stuff they say they are considering. (2) I'll pass on. Except to say they put a lot of effort into track and trace too, didn't they? Incompetence eats effort for breakfast.
And are they "morons" (as per your other post)? Yep, but not politically. Far from it.
But ok, so we'll see. My prediction is it's mainly all talk (being aired and sponsored for the reasons I set out) and that post June 21 and the end stage domestic reopening, we will be close enough to normality as to fairly and accurately describe it that way. And crucially it will feel normal. There will be no proving of covid status in order to go about a full and normal daily life in this country.
If I'm wrong I'll bake a large humble pie and send you a piece.
I hope I am wrong on this. But I think you will only be proved right if we push back on this pernicious idea now.
I am afraid that my default assumption is never to trust those who are in power or want power but to keep a very beady eye on them indeed - and at all times. They need to be reminded daily that they are our servants not our masters.
Yes, I do recognize that my 'wise old owl' act - even when proved right - can present as complacency.
I can tell you that if we do end up having to show vaccination proof to visit the pub I will not be just disappointed and embarrassed at being so wrong, I'll be well pissed off too.
Comments
Worth noting, too, that fashion stores are allowed to let you try on the clothes. Not a big one for me, admittedly, as I never go shopping at the best of times, but a biggie for Mrs Anabobazina.
This week I got my hair cut for the first time since December. It was very welcome but the shops in town were still all shut as were the cafes and the bars. Fairly soon, on the 26th I think, we will be allowed to have a drink outside but not inside. It is my daughter's birthday on the 28th so we are booked in to go out then. I seriously hope it will be warmer.
My productivity is falling ever closer to zero and its a problem as I am actually busy. Its hard to motivate yourself when faced with a life with so little joy in it. We just need to hang on for another month. Things will get better. Surely.
Obviously won't happen but it would be the best use of doses.
#PBPedant
And that's the point that people miss when things reopen the R0 number will be higher. And that is an issue unless the number of infected people are so low that it's almost meaningless.
An R0 of 2+ is a problem if you start with 100,000 infected people, it's not really an issue if you start at 100 or 1000.
It's like nuclear fusion. Most people have said they can live with the roadmap even if they think it's too slow. Go any slower than that and we're back into autumn and Boris Johnson saying "alas out of an overabundance of caution we must take action now."
On pubs: our local, a large Mitchells and Butlers affair, has announced it is not opening either despite having gardens. "No profitability" the manager has, largely because by staying closed it can continue to bill the taxpayer for furloughed staff wages.
I've said a few times that Sunak ceasing his aid packages will be key to ending all of this.
1) I don't trust the government.
2) The evidence which is coming out about the amount of effort which has already been put into developing ID cards.
Probably a bit higher than prepandemic, everyone's like a coiled spring itching for freedom ! I thought I was off to a pub garden after my run last night, then remembered it was next week.
Restrictions prior to and a bit after herd immunity is achieved do kill off tail cases.
He is one of many lost in bitterness
The ultra-wealthy didn't get ultra-wealthy by not caring too much about money. If it's going to cost them a chunk of their wealth to reside in the UK, they will live somewhere where this doesn't apply.
We will be more equal, as a result, because the ultra-wealthy will no longer be here. But the poor will be no richer, and the exchequer will be considerably poorer.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/
It has done neither of these things and continues not to. Instead all of its efforts are focused on controlling what vaccinated people can do here. It is nonsense on stilts.
So either the government consists of utter morons. Or it has another agenda.
Or both.
https://twitter.com/seanwhelanRTE/status/1379732305539911685
https://twitter.com/seanwhelanRTE/status/1379732793975058432
which would be 15% or so of the UK adult population (2 doses)
so with 50% of people vaccinated it's likely that were we to open things up now R0 will be somewhere between 1.5 and 2 which means there is still a possibility of things breaking out again.
Which is why we need to keep things locked down for a while longer, it's not nice but it's way better than the other option, which is another lockdown later this year.
Another has, effectively, scrapped it's car park, although it's not being as active in encouraging customers. Yet.
A third, a chain,. doesn't seem to be doing anything much. Not sure what the wine bar is doing, although it has a different clientele to the pubs, and a clientele that appears to be drawn from a much wider area.
One of our 'fancy restaurants doesn't appear to be doing anything much but the other has obviously been working on it's garden.
Another pub, in the next small town, is focussing hard on it's food trade, and as it has a very nice 'outside' area, beside a river, should probably do so.
Essex of course is normally drier and warmer than the S.Western Lakes.
The other problem is that they own things.
What happens to employment, for example, if you take 20% of the wealth from Timpson or Theo Paphitis?
Smaller packages, easier to transport, store in a fridge. All very sensible and suitable for Timbuctoo.
I was in a similar situation with my grandfather last year. He was in a care home and they simply banned visits for most of the year. I ended up going only twice, not because I didn't want to (although it was some distance away so not particularly easy), but simply because the restrictions made it utterly pointless. All the care home would do was open his window a crack and put his chair vaguely near it. For a man in his 90s with limited ability to hear or speak clearly.... It just turned visiting into an exercise in frustration and misery. He couldn't hear anything I said and I couldn't understand a word he said. We couldn't even see each other clearly because of the bloody net curtains. This is now one of my greatest regrets, I don't know that I could or would do anything differently if I went back in time, but...
Anyway, he died during the late autumn (not of covid) and I (if we're taking a generous interpretation) bent the Rules to go see him in hospital before that. I don't regret it for one second. What I do regret is my inability to properly visit him the care home before
https://twitter.com/KimGhattas/status/1379743308507938817
https://twitter.com/KimGhattas/status/1379743310772899842
https://twitter.com/DarrenGBNews/status/1379724624804642826?s=20
There is no justification for anything beyond that date, beyond potentially border vigilance while we ramp up domestic vax production in case needed for a variant booster.
We do sometimes wonder if we'll ever really see the son who has moved to and settled in Thailand 'for real' or his wife and children; eldest is now looking over the horizon at university; that was once an option but of course she now counts as overseas, so it will be cheaper and easier for her elsewhere.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-approves-use-of-modernas-coronavirus-vaccine-12150649
The tweets say far more about his insecurity than they do about the UK....which has rolled out vaccines nearly three times faster than Ireland.....
Yes it may be over cautious but the risk otherwise is way too great.
Hence not opening everything *now*
And are they "morons" (as per your other post)? Yep, but not politically. Far from it.
But ok, so we'll see. My prediction is it's mainly all talk (being aired and sponsored for the reasons I set out) and that post June 21 and the end stage domestic reopening, we will be close enough to normality as to fairly and accurately describe it that way. And crucially it will feel normal. There will be no proving of covid status in order to go about a full and normal daily life in this country.
If I'm wrong I'll bake a large humble pie and send you a piece.
It is everyone's personal choice and each of these must be respected. As people on here will know (if they have been paying attention to my posts and who hasn't?) I have been to see my 91-yr old mother regularly including pre-vaccine to play chess and have a glass of wine and chat (she's deaf as a post) and going through my mind was of course the "what if" question. Difficult to say how I would have felt even if I tried to rationalise the fact that her housekeeper comes in regularly and she has toddled to the shops often.
What I can say, however, is that some of those visits were very, very necessary for her (and because of this, my) mental well-being. It picked her up for weeks. So that was my (edit: our) choice but there are no easy choices here.
When it comes to legally visiting each other, the "cure" is doing more harm than the disease right now.
https://twitter.com/john_lichfield/status/1379740259693514758
Enough!
I am afraid that my default assumption is never to trust those who are in power or want power but to keep a very beady eye on them indeed - and at all times. They need to be reminded daily that they are our servants not our masters.
Now that there are so few over 50s left it makes sense to reserve the incoming AZ doses for them as most are now going to be people who previously refused.
Will we have moved to the stage where we don't have to wear masks in shops/leisure settings/public transport?
Will we still have regular government advertising about coronavirus?
Will we be able to have parties (e.g. 50 people in a house)?
Will we be able to buy a drink at a bar in a pub, rather than wait at a table?
Will we be able to arrive at a cafe without having to give our contact details?
I'm not trying to make a point here - I'm genuinely interested in what you think?
My guesses are that we will largely fail them all. But very happy to hear from more optimistic posters.
The government set out a roadmap with which most broadly agreed, in the context of a horrendous death and illness toll in January/February. It's now April. Yes, it was a cautious roadmap - understandable given the history of the virus and some uncertainty about the efficacy of vaccines. That uncertainty has diminished massively, but not completely. As far as I can tell, the government is sticking to the roadmap and restrictions will be eased next week, and more significantly on May 17th and then in June. If the government backtracks on the roadmap without good reason I'll join the complainants, but there's no sign of that yet.
Meanwhile, while the restrictions are a complete pain, they are increasingly less arduous, especially as people interpret them more sensibly. We've started having visitors to the house, because we know infections locally are now very low. The police have not knocked on our door, nor will they. I leave the house several times a day. Next Monday, my daughter has booked a table at a beachfront bar from 2pm - 8pm; we shall visit in shifts of six.
I just wonder if a bit of patience would be wise. We should man the barricades if/when it is clear that conspiracies about extending lockdown and enforcing ID cards are imminent, but not while they are still theoretical risks that I don't actually think will happen.
No 31mph drives for you - see you when you get there
Completely agree with you, it seems totally bizarre
The decision rests with Philip and his grandparents, no one else.
The system is so rigged in favour of asset holders that a 2 or 3% tax on the super elite wont slow them down very much at all.
Is Moderna being used for vaccinations in the EU at the moment or are they just using Pfizer and AZ?
Apparently he didn't tie the paddle to the kayak and while he was having a walk it drifted off.
You would be o for that to work in reverse?
I can tell you that if we do end up having to show vaccination proof to visit the pub I will not be just disappointed and embarrassed at being so wrong, I'll be well pissed off too.