Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
See my comment about the bunker mentality: they are continuing to fight the war even though it is ending. Maybe I am wrong and they know something we don't about vaccines. But i don't see how: so much data is in the public domain.
But I also take your point 3. I am deeply suspicious that somewhere in Whitehall they have seen a golden, once in a generation opportunity to slip a digital identity scheme through to the public on the back of 'safety is paramount' message. We know from previous Home secs that there is always a civil servant waiting to bring such a plan to their attention.
Well after some prodding and calls I finally got a phone call offering me a jab yesterday. It is to be given at the vaccination centre so I think it is genuine. 3.50 next Monday. It's a relief.
Have you sorted out with NHS Scotland whether you exist or not? And are on a GP's list?
I am assuming that I do exist because they were able to phone me. And I can post on PB as well. I don't have enough imagination to make all this up.
I have never doubted that you do exist. There are some on PB about whom I am doubtful, but not you. But proving your existence to an elderly chap in N Essex and proving it to the NHS is a different matter. I believe a Scots jury had a similar problem over something to do with a past FM recently.
Bright and sunny here in N Essex, but cold (1 degC, according to the app on my phone...... how does it know what it is outside?) The bird-bath is frozen, to the disgust of the blackbirds.
A pair of blue-tits have settled down in our bird box and are building their nest. There's a camera in it, connected to our TV, so every so often we turn off daytime TV and watch for nest-building activity. Although it's only spasmodic, it's often more exciting!
Fantastic
have a pair of robins nesting in a bush on our patio, just 6 feet from our patio doors and yesterday while one robin was in the nest, the other arrived and hovered for quite some time until they exchanged places.
It was wonderful to observe and to be honest, we had no idea robins could hover.
Sadly, the cold snap has ruined my magnolia tree blossom dispay.
That above 38% for the Conservatives does look value. I don't see UKIP/Brexit/REFUK making much of a showing. LibDems are fighting to hold what they have. But more importantly, what is the driver for the Labour vote to come out? Their sparkling leader? Their great team? Their attractive policies? I am expecting a significant movement from Labour --> Can't Be Arsed Party... Turnout isn't going to break any records, on the up side at least.
Quite possibly. I do expect the Tories to win Hartlepool, too, and regular contributors will know i'm not one to play the negative expectations game.
I'm curious whether our right-of-centre contributors who aren't active Conservatives think this a good thing. Does Johnson need a ringing vote of confidence, or would it be better to encourage a note of caution?
I think it would be a bad signal if the tories do win Hartlepool as it means the government will take this bollocks of extended lockdown as something the public approves of . For kids to be wearing masks in schools after easter is abuse
That above 38% for the Conservatives does look value. I don't see UKIP/Brexit/REFUK making much of a showing. LibDems are fighting to hold what they have. But more importantly, what is the driver for the Labour vote to come out? Their sparkling leader? Their great team? Their attractive policies? I am expecting a significant movement from Labour --> Can't Be Arsed Party... Turnout isn't going to break any records, on the up side at least.
Quite possibly. I do expect the Tories to win Hartlepool, too, and regular contributors will know i'm not one to play the negative expectations game.
I'm curious whether our right-of-centre contributors who aren't active Conservatives think this a good thing. Does Johnson need a ringing vote of confidence, or would it be better to encourage a note of caution?
One comment from the centre slightly right, I doubt if it matters much how the Tories do, as long as it is neither triumph nor disaster. But there is a huge hole in ordinary UK politics skewing the whole machine. The long tradition of a choice (GE not local elections) between two PM candidates and two parties has been eroded. The choice, barring a miracle, is between a Tory majority and a Labour minority/coalition government.
While, obviously, it is voters, especially Scottish voters, who have made this the case it makes a curious and unequal contest.
It must be to the Conservatives advantage, if only slightly, that they can picture the real choice as between a clear majority government and an uncertain alliance. The idea of a government requiring the support of LD, Green, PC, SNP, Alba(!), DUP (lol) and SF staying away alongside a less than stellar Labour party has shortcomings.
The Conservatives will almost certainly win a majority in England at the next general election.
The question is really whether Starmer can gain enough Tory seats to get a hung parliament across the UK and then form a minority government for the UK propped up by SNP and Liberal Democrat MPs
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Good post.
I think the vaccine probably is effective (look at Israel is the cry here) but that the govt is also sh&t-scared that once people are out and about case rates will rise (who cares) and so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are sitting on a precious amount of goodwill atm and are worried about squandering it.
Of course they might squander this either way - a resurgence in deaths or continued restrictive measures.
I think, through gritted teeth, and although I am more with you on dates, I can see the logic for the current timetable.
That said, let's imagine cases, hosps, and deaths do skyrocket after June21st. Will it be possible to impose another lockdown? There may be a resistance movement but look at the polls.
My personal theory is that the government in hoping, hoping for #1
However, they are worried about the following - in the process of unlocking, everyone...er.... goes for it. This causes a third wave of whatever size.
If it happens before we are down into the 40s for vaccinations that could lead to problems with hospitals.
It would definitely mean more deaths among the refusnik groups. And among those for whom the vaccine can't be administered for medical reasons.
One thing the government can be absolutely certain of - that in that case, they will be blamed. Everyone crying out for freedom now, will be demanding answers as to why we weren't all welded in our homes until 103% of the population was vaccinated. 8 times over.
Mr. (Miss? Sorry, I forget) Kirk, that's the key point. I do wonder if the poster of Ed Miliband in Salmond's pocket will come to be seen as a definitive image, and also a definitive problem, for the Labour Party.
"Vote for us and we'll... probably have to govern with a party that thinks the country shouldn't exist."
The Conservatives are therefore up 4% on the 34% they got in the County council elections last time they were up in 2017, Labour are up 7% on the 27% they got in the last County elections and the LDs are down 11% on the 18% they got then. So on that basis we should see a few Labour gains from the Conservatives in the County elections and both the Conservatives and Labour should make gains from the LDs (albeit the LDs tend to poll a bit better locally than nationally).
When the district council seats up this year were last up in 2016 however the Conservatives only got 30%, so they are now up 12% on that total, Labour are also up 3% on the 31% they got in 2016. The LDs however are again down 8% on their share then. So the district elections in May should see the Tories make some gains from Labour and again the Tories and Labour should make gains from the Liberal Democrats
I think nationally that is about how the land lies. When the dust settles a little the poll margins will close, although there might be an extended Conservative lead for a while when Johnson is seen with a pint in a pub in each region everyday for a week from April 12.
The Boris’ name discussion is the dullest debate on PB since the doctors’ date notation classic of the genre.
For me it's the "West Lothian question".
Gosh that's a yawner.
The West Lothian question is one of the most important issues in politics. It's incredible that it still hasn't been resolved after about 45 years.
I think that's because it's a question with only 2 answers. Reverse devolution or Scottish independence. If both of those are ruled out all one can do is discuss the question without a resolution. Hence my boredom with it.
Or an English Parliament.
Or removing altogether non English (or non English and Welsh) MPs from voting on English (or English and Welsh) issues. Not a double majority or relying upon them abstaining, but having them as a separate class of MP able to vote on issues that are their responsibility and not on those that are devolved.
Mr. (Miss? Sorry, I forget) Kirk, that's the key point. I do wonder if the poster of Ed Miliband in Salmond's pocket will come to be seen as a definitive image, and also a definitive problem, for the Labour Party.
"Vote for us and we'll... probably have to govern with a party that thinks the country shouldn't exist."
Wait until you hear about the party you voted for that put a border down the Irish Sea....
So leaving the United Kingdom and joining the Russian Federation is best for Scotland. At least, I suppose they'll be on the right side come the invasion.
Bright and sunny here in N Essex, but cold (1 degC, according to the app on my phone...... how does it know what it is outside?) The bird-bath is frozen, to the disgust of the blackbirds.
A pair of blue-tits have settled down in our bird box and are building their nest. There's a camera in it, connected to our TV, so every so often we turn off daytime TV and watch for nest-building activity. Although it's only spasmodic, it's often more exciting!
Fantastic
have a pair of robins nesting in a bush on our patio, just 6 feet from our patio doors and yesterday while one robin was in the nest, the other arrived and hovered for quite some time until they exchanged places.
It was wonderful to observe and to be honest, we had no idea robins could hover.
Sadly, the cold snap has ruined my magnolia tree blossom dispay.
One of the pair of blackbirds in our garden, the male, has appeared alone for the last few days, but has frequently headed off in the direction of a large, thick hedge with a beakful of mixed food. I do wonder if either eggs or chicks could survive in current temperatures. We had a pair of swans locally who built a nest last spring at what appeared to be a safe height above the river. However, the Environment people apparently opened some floodgates higher up, and the river rose about two feet. We never saw any cygnets, but I think we saw the same swans busily mating on the river not long before Easter. It was quite a sight!
Pearson reviews the 8,000 odd comments to Gove's request for thoughts on the vaxport. And gives the minister both barrels in response. Unrestrained anger at Johnson and co.'s betrayal.
I think it's quite offensive to effectively compare 120,000 deaths with possibly being required to carry vaccine passports for some forms of recreation. The latter may or may not be a good idea. But they are not remotely comparable.
She's not. The title makes that clear: "It's bad enough that Covid killed so many of our people; must we let it destroy who we are as well?"
@ydoethur you put it mildly. Kudos for the admirable restraint. Maybe it’s time to consider a change of government.
Why thank you.
But whatever the government, the DfE remains useless. Whoever leads it, they’re still awful.
I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that what we really need is to dismiss large chunks of the Civil Service and start again.
In every large organisation of which I am aware, either they have periodic clearcuts, with mass firings, or they gradually silt up until they... stop.
Read the Mitrokhin Archive - the KGB (well, it's predecessors) went from a dynamic start up of a few hundred enthused people to a global giant. At the start they were out spying and murdering their way round the world with wild energy....
So the DFE is a moribund terror organisation, and you wish to improve its capacity to create chaos ?
That above 38% for the Conservatives does look value. I don't see UKIP/Brexit/REFUK making much of a showing. LibDems are fighting to hold what they have. But more importantly, what is the driver for the Labour vote to come out? Their sparkling leader? Their great team? Their attractive policies? I am expecting a significant movement from Labour --> Can't Be Arsed Party... Turnout isn't going to break any records, on the up side at least.
Quite possibly. I do expect the Tories to win Hartlepool, too, and regular contributors will know i'm not one to play the negative expectations game.
I'm curious whether our right-of-centre contributors who aren't active Conservatives think this a good thing. Does Johnson need a ringing vote of confidence, or would it be better to encourage a note of caution?
That's a very good question. I'd usually vote for just about any party other than LP but I'm rooting for them in Hartlepool. Don't want to government to have yet more power.
Gavin Williamson, Nick Gibb and every civil servant at the DfE are traitorous, lying, bullying, pig ignorant c-bombs who hate teachers and children part 124a:
These people just do not live in the real world. Masks are not merely horrible to wear, they are frequently used by children as playthings, spreading any virus over their hands and their desks, they make it impossible for both deaf children and deaf teachers to function effectively, and finally they are used for prolonged periods and not washed rather than for brief instances and cleaned/disposed of as they are designed to be. Moreover, they allow disruptive children to talk and mutter with impunity, creating constant disruption which makes it impossible to maintain an atmosphere of calm. Goodness knows how we will manage these exams we’re still being forced to do.
They are also fluent liars. As evidenced by the fact they claimed pupil behaviour was better under Covid (a lie) that their new teaching framework will somehow reduce violence and assaults on staff (another lie) and that only 0.2% of children in school had tested positive for Covid (another lie) and that there would be no exams this year (yet another lie, because they’re still going ahead, it’s just that they are being marked by a different process).
And then they wonder why every teacher - and I mean every teacher - is making plans to quit the profession in the next two years. That’s going to be rather expensive in itself given that those aged 55 or over will simply take retirement.
They are just utter, vile scum.
Why don’t you say what you really think of them...😄
Because I’d either be prosecuted for incitement to murder, or worse, get banned from PB.
We cannot have you banned but we do understand the nuance of your comments and with Williamson, it sounds moderate
When Williamson is elevated to Conservative Prime Minister you will be singing his praises BigG.
Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes.
Noooooooo
And I would resign my membership and become politically homeless
That above 38% for the Conservatives does look value. I don't see UKIP/Brexit/REFUK making much of a showing. LibDems are fighting to hold what they have. But more importantly, what is the driver for the Labour vote to come out? Their sparkling leader? Their great team? Their attractive policies? I am expecting a significant movement from Labour --> Can't Be Arsed Party... Turnout isn't going to break any records, on the up side at least.
Quite possibly. I do expect the Tories to win Hartlepool, too, and regular contributors will know i'm not one to play the negative expectations game.
I'm curious whether our right-of-centre contributors who aren't active Conservatives think this a good thing. Does Johnson need a ringing vote of confidence, or would it be better to encourage a note of caution?
One comment from the centre slightly right, I doubt if it matters much how the Tories do, as long as it is neither triumph nor disaster. But there is a huge hole in ordinary UK politics skewing the whole machine. The long tradition of a choice (GE not local elections) between two PM candidates and two parties has been eroded. The choice, barring a miracle, is between a Tory majority and a Labour minority/coalition government.
While, obviously, it is voters, especially Scottish voters, who have made this the case it makes a curious and unequal contest.
It must be to the Conservatives advantage, if only slightly, that they can picture the real choice as between a clear majority government and an uncertain alliance. The idea of a government requiring the support of LD, Green, PC, SNP, Alba(!), DUP (lol) and SF staying away alongside a less than stellar Labour party has shortcomings.
The Conservatives will almost certainly win a majority in England at the next general election.
The question is really whether Starmer can gain enough Tory seats to get a hung parliament across the UK and then form a minority government for the UK propped up by SNP and Liberal Democrat MPs
Mr. (Miss? Sorry, I forget) Kirk, that's the key point. I do wonder if the poster of Ed Miliband in Salmond's pocket will come to be seen as a definitive image, and also a definitive problem, for the Labour Party.
"Vote for us and we'll... probably have to govern with a party that thinks the country shouldn't exist."
Maybe, maybe not. But the reality will be Johnson sold the Union for personal gain. " No border in the North Sea" will be his epitaph.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Good post.
I think the vaccine probably is effective (look at Israel is the cry here) but that the govt is also sh&t-scared that once people are out and about case rates will rise (who cares) and so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are sitting on a precious amount of goodwill atm and are worried about squandering it.
Of course they might squander this either way - a resurgence in deaths or continued restrictive measures.
I think, through gritted teeth, and although I am more with you on dates, I can see the logic for the current timetable.
That said, let's imagine cases, hosps, and deaths do skyrocket after June21st. Will it be possible to impose another lockdown? There may be a resistance movement but look at the polls.
My personal theory is that the government in hoping, hoping for #1
However, they are worried about the following - in the process of unlocking, everyone...er.... goes for it. This causes a third wave of whatever size.
If it happens before we are down into the 40s for vaccinations that could lead to problems with hospitals.
It would definitely mean more deaths among the refusnik groups. And among those for whom the vaccine can't be administered for medical reasons.
One thing the government can be absolutely certain of - that in that case, they will be blamed. Everyone crying out for freedom now, will be demanding answers as to why we weren't all welded in our homes until 103% of the population was vaccinated. 8 times over.
Yep. Although a monumental twat, I cannot believe that Boris would not realise that as soon as the words "June 21st no more restrictions" were out of his mouth, most of the country would have marked that down as the end date. And all this faff about masks, distancing, etc will be out the window also.
People have had months to ponder June 21st and it would be a huge electoral gamble for this not to happen.
Well after some prodding and calls I finally got a phone call offering me a jab yesterday. It is to be given at the vaccination centre so I think it is genuine. 3.50 next Monday. It's a relief.
Have you sorted out with NHS Scotland whether you exist or not? And are on a GP's list?
I am assuming that I do exist because they were able to phone me. And I can post on PB as well. I don't have enough imagination to make all this up.
Perhaps you’re a figment of SeanT’s imagination, though for better or worse he seems to have (mostly) excised the swearing, gamey sex and florid prose.
The Conservatives are therefore up 4% on the 34% they got in the County council elections last time they were up in 2017, Labour are up 7% on the 27% they got in the last County elections and the LDs are down 11% on the 18% they got then. So on that basis we should see a few Labour gains from the Conservatives in the County elections and both the Conservatives and Labour should make gains from the LDs (albeit the LDs tend to poll a bit better locally than nationally).
When the district council seats up this year were last up in 2016 however the Conservatives only got 30%, so they are now up 12% on that total, Labour are also up 3% on the 31% they got in 2016. The LDs however are again down 8% on their share then. So the district elections in May should see the Tories make some gains from Labour and again the Tories and Labour should make gains from the Liberal Democrats
I think nationally that is about how the land lies. When the dust settles a little the poll margins will close, although there might be an extended Conservative lead for a while when Johnson is seen with a pint in a pub in each region everyday for a week from April 12.
Excellent post by the way HYUFD.
He is very good on this kind of analysis
I'm afraid its completely wrong and simplistic analysis, not good analysis. It is a complete apples and oranges comparison. You can not contrast opinion polls with local election results. You need to compare like for like.
The Tories are not up 4% on 2017. The latest YouGov before the 2017 local elections had the Tories on 48, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 10%, UKIP 5%
So the net change comparing like-for-like is Tories down 6%, Labour up 5%, Lib Dems up 3%.
So leaving the United Kingdom and joining the Russian Federation is best for Scotland. At least, I suppose they'll be on the right side come the invasion.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Good post.
I think the vaccine probably is effective (look at Israel is the cry here) but that the govt is also sh&t-scared that once people are out and about case rates will rise (who cares) and so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are sitting on a precious amount of goodwill atm and are worried about squandering it.
Of course they might squander this either way - a resurgence in deaths or continued restrictive measures.
I think, through gritted teeth, and although I am more with you on dates, I can see the logic for the current timetable.
That said, let's imagine cases, hosps, and deaths do skyrocket after June21st. Will it be possible to impose another lockdown? There may be a resistance movement but look at the polls.
My personal theory is that the government in hoping, hoping for #1
However, they are worried about the following - in the process of unlocking, everyone...er.... goes for it. This causes a third wave of whatever size.
If it happens before we are down into the 40s for vaccinations that could lead to problems with hospitals.
It would definitely mean more deaths among the refusnik groups. And among those for whom the vaccine can't be administered for medical reasons.
One thing the government can be absolutely certain of - that in that case, they will be blamed. Everyone crying out for freedom now, will be demanding answers as to why we weren't all welded in our homes until 103% of the population was vaccinated. 8 times over.
Thats not true at all - many people accept that cases will rise if restrictive measures removed . Only idiots (there are a few) argue both ways - the government is not doing some westminster exercise about obsessing about things nobody really cares about ( russian interference in elections is one) but they are messing about with peoples actual lives .It better be for a better reason that trying to look good
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Good post.
I think the vaccine probably is effective (look at Israel is the cry here) but that the govt is also sh&t-scared that once people are out and about case rates will rise (who cares) and so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are sitting on a precious amount of goodwill atm and are worried about squandering it.
Of course they might squander this either way - a resurgence in deaths or continued restrictive measures.
I think, through gritted teeth, and although I am more with you on dates, I can see the logic for the current timetable.
That said, let's imagine cases, hosps, and deaths do skyrocket after June21st. Will it be possible to impose another lockdown? There may be a resistance movement but look at the polls.
My personal theory is that the government in hoping, hoping for #1
However, they are worried about the following - in the process of unlocking, everyone...er.... goes for it. This causes a third wave of whatever size.
If it happens before we are down into the 40s for vaccinations that could lead to problems with hospitals.
It would definitely mean more deaths among the refusnik groups. And among those for whom the vaccine can't be administered for medical reasons.
One thing the government can be absolutely certain of - that in that case, they will be blamed. Everyone crying out for freedom now, will be demanding answers as to why we weren't all welded in our homes until 103% of the population was vaccinated. 8 times over.
Yep. Although a monumental twat, I cannot believe that Boris would not realise that as soon as the words "June 21st no more restrictions" were out of his mouth, most of the country would have marked that down as the end date. And all this faff about masks, distancing, etc will be out the window also.
People have had months to ponder June 21st and it would be a huge electoral gamble for this not to happen.
He has been known to make promises which turned out to be piecrust. It's like that standard question "Have you ever said I love you and not meant it? To which his answer appears to be 'Well I meant it at the time, but circumstances change"
The Boris’ name discussion is the dullest debate on PB since the doctors’ date notation classic of the genre.
For me it's the "West Lothian question".
Gosh that's a yawner.
The West Lothian question is one of the most important issues in politics. It's incredible that it still hasn't been resolved after about 45 years.
I think that's because it's a question with only 2 answers. Reverse devolution or Scottish independence. If both of those are ruled out all one can do is discuss the question without a resolution. Hence my boredom with it.
Or an English Parliament.
Or removing altogether non English (or non English and Welsh) MPs from voting on English (or English and Welsh) issues. Not a double majority or relying upon them abstaining, but having them as a separate class of MP able to vote on issues that are their responsibility and not on those that are devolved.
Yes, but those don't look to me like realistic options. The first would delegitimize the UK parliament and the second is way too fussy. Neither is reversing devolution realistic. And neither is Sindy unless the Scots vote for it. So we're stuck with an unanswerable question. Perhaps it's best to just learn to live with it. There are many questions in life with no answer. And is it really that important? I'm not sure it is. I don't lose much sleep over it.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Good post.
I think the vaccine probably is effective (look at Israel is the cry here) but that the govt is also sh&t-scared that once people are out and about case rates will rise (who cares) and so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are sitting on a precious amount of goodwill atm and are worried about squandering it.
Of course they might squander this either way - a resurgence in deaths or continued restrictive measures.
I think, through gritted teeth, and although I am more with you on dates, I can see the logic for the current timetable.
That said, let's imagine cases, hosps, and deaths do skyrocket after June21st. Will it be possible to impose another lockdown? There may be a resistance movement but look at the polls.
My personal theory is that the government in hoping, hoping for #1
However, they are worried about the following - in the process of unlocking, everyone...er.... goes for it. This causes a third wave of whatever size.
If it happens before we are down into the 40s for vaccinations that could lead to problems with hospitals.
It would definitely mean more deaths among the refusnik groups. And among those for whom the vaccine can't be administered for medical reasons.
One thing the government can be absolutely certain of - that in that case, they will be blamed. Everyone crying out for freedom now, will be demanding answers as to why we weren't all welded in our homes until 103% of the population was vaccinated. 8 times over.
Yep. Although a monumental twat, I cannot believe that Boris would not realise that as soon as the words "June 21st no more restrictions" were out of his mouth, most of the country would have marked that down as the end date. And all this faff about masks, distancing, etc will be out the window also.
People have had months to ponder June 21st and it would be a huge electoral gamble for this not to happen.
The answer is 3. Government's love Data (there will be hundreds of reports that say the successful areas have been were the data is available (PAYE for furlough scheme, NHS data for vaccinations) and now want to see what else they can collect.
Especially if they can pull off the previous trick and all it to be merged together into a few consolidated databases (this is not a good idea, data should be kept separate for security and privacy reasons).
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Good post.
I think the vaccine probably is effective (look at Israel is the cry here) but that the govt is also sh&t-scared that once people are out and about case rates will rise (who cares) and so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are sitting on a precious amount of goodwill atm and are worried about squandering it.
Of course they might squander this either way - a resurgence in deaths or continued restrictive measures.
I think, through gritted teeth, and although I am more with you on dates, I can see the logic for the current timetable.
That said, let's imagine cases, hosps, and deaths do skyrocket after June21st. Will it be possible to impose another lockdown? There may be a resistance movement but look at the polls.
My personal theory is that the government in hoping, hoping for #1
However, they are worried about the following - in the process of unlocking, everyone...er.... goes for it. This causes a third wave of whatever size.
If it happens before we are down into the 40s for vaccinations that could lead to problems with hospitals.
It would definitely mean more deaths among the refusnik groups. And among those for whom the vaccine can't be administered for medical reasons.
One thing the government can be absolutely certain of - that in that case, they will be blamed. Everyone crying out for freedom now, will be demanding answers as to why we weren't all welded in our homes until 103% of the population was vaccinated. 8 times over.
Labour, Starmer and other assorted idiots on the Left will blame the government. Will the public care? Not sure.
I'm clinging to the hope that the government are saying this to scare people into getting vaccinated when the chance comes. I thought Nadhim Zahawi's comments about looking into this being "the right thing to do" seemed a little odd. Might be wishful thinking on my part, but something about that phrase sounded like a coded message.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Good post.
I think the vaccine probably is effective (look at Israel is the cry here) but that the govt is also sh&t-scared that once people are out and about case rates will rise (who cares) and so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are sitting on a precious amount of goodwill atm and are worried about squandering it.
Of course they might squander this either way - a resurgence in deaths or continued restrictive measures.
I think, through gritted teeth, and although I am more with you on dates, I can see the logic for the current timetable.
That said, let's imagine cases, hosps, and deaths do skyrocket after June21st. Will it be possible to impose another lockdown? There may be a resistance movement but look at the polls.
My personal theory is that the government in hoping, hoping for #1
However, they are worried about the following - in the process of unlocking, everyone...er.... goes for it. This causes a third wave of whatever size.
If it happens before we are down into the 40s for vaccinations that could lead to problems with hospitals.
It would definitely mean more deaths among the refusnik groups. And among those for whom the vaccine can't be administered for medical reasons.
One thing the government can be absolutely certain of - that in that case, they will be blamed. Everyone crying out for freedom now, will be demanding answers as to why we weren't all welded in our homes until 103% of the population was vaccinated. 8 times over.
Yep. Although a monumental twat, I cannot believe that Boris would not realise that as soon as the words "June 21st no more restrictions" were out of his mouth, most of the country would have marked that down as the end date. And all this faff about masks, distancing, etc will be out the window also.
People have had months to ponder June 21st and it would be a huge electoral gamble for this not to happen.
He has been known to make promises which turned out to be piecrust. It's like that standard question "Have you ever said I love you and not meant it? To which his answer appears to be 'Well I meant it at the time, but circumstances change"
Yes of course but he would get ripped apart by a large minority of his own party and also (one would imagine) by SKS along the lines of if he wasn't sure of the date he should never have mentioned it. He (SKS) would be able to ignore the substance of why any date was put back and focus on the management of the process.
If he wasn't as per usual standing cheering from the sidelines waving a big Boris Flag, that is.
"The BBC will not make programmes aimed specifically at older viewers because their tastes are too varied, the corporation has said. Instead, the over-50s are urged to enjoy shows made for a “general audience”.
Well after some prodding and calls I finally got a phone call offering me a jab yesterday. It is to be given at the vaccination centre so I think it is genuine. 3.50 next Monday. It's a relief.
Have you sorted out with NHS Scotland whether you exist or not? And are on a GP's list?
I am assuming that I do exist because they were able to phone me. And I can post on PB as well. I don't have enough imagination to make all this up.
Wait until you wake up from this dream and find that you are in fact a Cornish flint knapper and that PB doesn't exist.
Arrgh! I think I'd have to invent it. In all seriousness the banter on here has been a great help these last few months.
I was reading the last few comments on the previous thread. Many PB posters (a robust bunch or we wouldn't be on here) suffering from anxiety and depression. This is horrendous.
The disease is horrendous also but the govt responding to the current situation - which means some, all, or none of it may be justified - has broken a large number of people such that when we are told we will be allowed to sit on a park bench at some unspecified time in the future, there are tears of joy and gratitude. Extraordinary.
And it has been clapped (literally) and rewarded in the polls the whole time.
I said this right from the start - it amazed me that people unquestioningly accepted lockdowns as they did. I was always trying to point this out but didn’t get much support.
Now we are creeping out of it, I don’t have any big problem with it being done carefully, via certificates/passports whatever, but apparently they are a bigger threat to our liberty than house arrest!
The Boris’ name discussion is the dullest debate on PB since the doctors’ date notation classic of the genre.
For me it's the "West Lothian question".
Gosh that's a yawner.
The West Lothian question is one of the most important issues in politics. It's incredible that it still hasn't been resolved after about 45 years.
I think that's because it's a question with only 2 answers. Reverse devolution or Scottish independence. If both of those are ruled out all one can do is discuss the question without a resolution. Hence my boredom with it.
Or an English Parliament.
Or removing altogether non English (or non English and Welsh) MPs from voting on English (or English and Welsh) issues. Not a double majority or relying upon them abstaining, but having them as a separate class of MP able to vote on issues that are their responsibility and not on those that are devolved.
Yes, but those don't look to me like realistic options. The first would delegitimize the UK parliament and the second is way too fussy. Neither is reversing devolution realistic. And neither is Sindy unless the Scots vote for it. So we're stuck with an unanswerable question. Perhaps it's best to just learn to live with it. There are many questions in life with no answer. And is it really that important? I'm not sure it is. I don't lose much sleep over it.
Any devolution option has to include a separate English Parliament. That’s the single biggest flaw in the current arrangements.
Gavin Williamson, Nick Gibb and every civil servant at the DfE are traitorous, lying, bullying, pig ignorant c-bombs who hate teachers and children part 124a:
These people just do not live in the real world. Masks are not merely horrible to wear, they are frequently used by children as playthings, spreading any virus over their hands and their desks, they make it impossible for both deaf children and deaf teachers to function effectively, and finally they are used for prolonged periods and not washed rather than for brief instances and cleaned/disposed of as they are designed to be. Moreover, they allow disruptive children to talk and mutter with impunity, creating constant disruption which makes it impossible to maintain an atmosphere of calm. Goodness knows how we will manage these exams we’re still being forced to do.
They are also fluent liars. As evidenced by the fact they claimed pupil behaviour was better under Covid (a lie) that their new teaching framework will somehow reduce violence and assaults on staff (another lie) and that only 0.2% of children in school had tested positive for Covid (another lie) and that there would be no exams this year (yet another lie, because they’re still going ahead, it’s just that they are being marked by a different process).
And then they wonder why every teacher - and I mean every teacher - is making plans to quit the profession in the next two years. That’s going to be rather expensive in itself given that those aged 55 or over will simply take retirement.
They are just utter, vile scum.
Why don’t you say what you really think of them...😄
Because I’d either be prosecuted for incitement to murder, or worse, get banned from PB.
We cannot have you banned but we do understand the nuance of your comments and with Williamson, it sounds moderate
When Williamson is elevated to Conservative Prime Minister you will be singing his praises BigG.
Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes.
Noooooooo
And I would resign my membership and become politically homeless
Pearson reviews the 8,000 odd comments to Gove's request for thoughts on the vaxport. And gives the minister both barrels in response. Unrestrained anger at Johnson and co.'s betrayal.
I think it's quite offensive to effectively compare 120,000 deaths with possibly being required to carry vaccine passports for some forms of recreation. The latter may or may not be a good idea. But they are not remotely comparable.
She's not. The title makes that clear: "It's bad enough that Covid killed so many of our people; must we let it destroy who we are as well?"
I think Nick's wrong here. Both are very bad, but I'd take 1 in 500 of us dying in a pandemic over the UK becoming a surveillance state.
I don't know if anyone noticed but the last 2 days of case data in France was 10K and 8K. The previous few days were 46K up to 80K. So it is highly likely today there will be a huge number reported, highly likely to be 100K+ cases.
So leaving the United Kingdom and joining the Russian Federation is best for Scotland. At least, I suppose they'll be on the right side come the invasion.
Salmond could be Britain's Dubcek!
Spookily they have the same given name.
As of course does Johnson. OMG he even gave himself a Russian stage name!
EXTINCTION Rebellion activists armed with hammers have today smashed windows at the Barclays Bank HQ in London. Extinction Rebellion said the action was part of its so called “Money Rebellion” against the capitalist system.
All those useful idiots who give the XR mob the free pass cos its all about the lovely cuddly save the planet, when the leaders have been clear from the start it is about smashing the capitalist system.
I share some of your concerns about the models but I see this as a reflection of poor rigor (sorry Selebian!) in epidemiology in general rather than particular defects in this work. I think it's fair to say that the SPI-M process is that the various research groups do the modelling, and then the committee functions as a kind of peer review. --AS
There's no need for the apology! As some of you will know, I'm an epidemiologist (although not in infectious disease). I've acknowledged before - when we were discussing the Imperial moelling code - that epidemiology has major problems with modelling/coding rigour. I'm a bit of a modelling god in my group (I'm really not a modelling god!) because I know my way around R and Stata and a bit of C++ and Python and how to fit and test a model. I used to work in predictive modelling, where you can actually test whether your models were any good but I'm now in descriptive modelling and a lot of it is still chasing p-values, whatever people say (you still see papers published with variable selection by p-value). I'm sure there will be a reproducibility crisis if anyone bothers to look. Basic diagnostics are largely missing; you don't see a great deal of senstivity analyses testing assumptions. We had a paper about a year back which had one important variable missing (probably) not at random, so I tackled that with a set of reasonable sensitivity analyses in an appendix while my co-authors eyes glazed over; we had trouble getting that through review because the reviewers complained it was too complicated.
Good coders/modellers rarely stay in the field because those skills are not sufficiently appreciated and are much more appreciated (financially too) elsewhere. I've had recruitment agencies chasing me for jobs paying £10-20k more than I earn now, but mostly in areas that don't float my boat (optmising advertising for example - I do actually find my current job interesting if frustrating at times). Your average epidemiology professor has only a vague understanding of modelling and that's a bit of a problem. There's an attempt to create the Research Software Engineer role in universities, to provide programmers a career path outside papers and grants, but those top out at around £50k at present and start around £30k (or below - and they still kind of expect a PhD or a lot of experience), so they're only going to be - at most - a stepping stone to bigger and better things for decent software engineers. And if you're working with senstive health data, as I am, you won't be able to call them in anyway unless they're embedded in your team and cleared by the data provider as otherwise they won't be permitted to see the data.
The Boris’ name discussion is the dullest debate on PB since the doctors’ date notation classic of the genre.
For me it's the "West Lothian question".
Gosh that's a yawner.
The West Lothian question is one of the most important issues in politics. It's incredible that it still hasn't been resolved after about 45 years.
I think that's because it's a question with only 2 answers. Reverse devolution or Scottish independence. If both of those are ruled out all one can do is discuss the question without a resolution. Hence my boredom with it.
Or an English Parliament.
Or removing altogether non English (or non English and Welsh) MPs from voting on English (or English and Welsh) issues. Not a double majority or relying upon them abstaining, but having them as a separate class of MP able to vote on issues that are their responsibility and not on those that are devolved.
Yes, but those don't look to me like realistic options. The first would delegitimize the UK parliament and the second is way too fussy. Neither is reversing devolution realistic. And neither is Sindy unless the Scots vote for it. So we're stuck with an unanswerable question. Perhaps it's best to just learn to live with it. There are many questions in life with no answer. And is it really that important? I'm not sure it is. I don't lose much sleep over it.
How is removing non-English MPs from voting "way too fussy"?
Its a clean, simple solution. If this is a devolved subject, then the MP for the area loses the right to vote on the issue, in the same way as Westminster has removed the right to vote on laws for that area. Simple.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Good post.
I think the vaccine probably is effective (look at Israel is the cry here) but that the govt is also sh&t-scared that once people are out and about case rates will rise (who cares) and so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are sitting on a precious amount of goodwill atm and are worried about squandering it.
Of course they might squander this either way - a resurgence in deaths or continued restrictive measures.
I think, through gritted teeth, and although I am more with you on dates, I can see the logic for the current timetable.
That said, let's imagine cases, hosps, and deaths do skyrocket after June21st. Will it be possible to impose another lockdown? There may be a resistance movement but look at the polls.
My personal theory is that the government in hoping, hoping for #1
However, they are worried about the following - in the process of unlocking, everyone...er.... goes for it. This causes a third wave of whatever size.
If it happens before we are down into the 40s for vaccinations that could lead to problems with hospitals.
It would definitely mean more deaths among the refusnik groups. And among those for whom the vaccine can't be administered for medical reasons.
One thing the government can be absolutely certain of - that in that case, they will be blamed. Everyone crying out for freedom now, will be demanding answers as to why we weren't all welded in our homes until 103% of the population was vaccinated. 8 times over.
Yep. Although a monumental twat, I cannot believe that Boris would not realise that as soon as the words "June 21st no more restrictions" were out of his mouth, most of the country would have marked that down as the end date. And all this faff about masks, distancing, etc will be out the window also.
People have had months to ponder June 21st and it would be a huge electoral gamble for this not to happen.
The answer is 3. Government's love Data (there will be hundreds of reports that say the successful areas have been were the data is available (PAYE for furlough scheme, NHS data for vaccinations) and now want to see what else they can collect.
Especially if they can pull off the previous trick and all it to be merged together into a few consolidated databases (this is not a good idea, data should be kept separate for security and privacy reasons).
Which is why many think vaxports are a hugely bad idea, not only disbelieving the guff about being a temporary measure but the fact that when they are in and mandatory it is very easy to add extra bits of data collection into them without requiring legislation of even necessarily ministerial oversight.
For example it would be easy to expand location data from just when you use it to check in to a regular update of your location every few minutes and could easily be done because some civil service wonk thinks its a good idea and adds it to a requirements spec for an update. Or alternatively you goto a bar and check in they decide to mate that with card transactions to see how much you are spending in the bar just for public health monitoring of course to assess if the nation is drinking too much.
"The BBC will not make programmes aimed specifically at older viewers because their tastes are too varied, the corporation has said. Instead, the over-50s are urged to enjoy shows made for a “general audience”.
Do the BBC get that the people who watch the BBC are generally over 50? My daughter (17) never watches it and she is pretty switched on about the world. Only a organisation with a guaranteed income could deliberately not make programmes for their actual customers - idiots and ivory tower come to mind.
"The BBC will not make programmes aimed specifically at older viewers because their tastes are too varied, the corporation has said. Instead, the over-50s are urged to enjoy shows made for a “general audience”.
That above 38% for the Conservatives does look value. I don't see UKIP/Brexit/REFUK making much of a showing. LibDems are fighting to hold what they have. But more importantly, what is the driver for the Labour vote to come out? Their sparkling leader? Their great team? Their attractive policies? I am expecting a significant movement from Labour --> Can't Be Arsed Party... Turnout isn't going to break any records, on the up side at least.
Quite possibly. I do expect the Tories to win Hartlepool, too, and regular contributors will know i'm not one to play the negative expectations game.
I'm curious whether our right-of-centre contributors who aren't active Conservatives think this a good thing. Does Johnson need a ringing vote of confidence, or would it be better to encourage a note of caution?
That's a very good question. I'd usually vote for just about any party other than LP but I'm rooting for them in Hartlepool. Don't want to government to have yet more power.
Wahay. Right side of history for a month. I'll take that. You might get used to it and stay a little longer.
I don't know if anyone noticed but the last 2 days of case data in France was 10K and 8K. The previous few days were 46K up to 80K. So it is highly likely today there will be a huge number reported, highly likely to be 100K+ cases.
Possibly.
Alternatively they just did far fewer tests and the backlog will take several days to clear.
So leaving the United Kingdom and joining the Russian Federation is best for Scotland. At least, I suppose they'll be on the right side come the invasion.
Salmond could be Britain's Dubcek!
Spookily they have the same given name.
Spookily there’s a politician even closer to home with the same given name. Other similarities may or may not exist..
The Conservatives are therefore up 4% on the 38% they got in the County council elections last time they were up in 2017, Labour are up 7% on the 27% they got in the last County elections and the LDs are down 11% on the 18% they got then. So on that basis we should see a few Labour gains from the Conservatives in the County elections and both the Conservatives and Labour should make gains from the LDs (albeit the LDs tend to poll a bit better locally than nationally).
When the district council seats up this year were last up in 2016 however the Conservatives only got 30%, so they are now up 12% on that total, Labour are also up 3% on the 31% they got in 2016. The LDs however are again down 8% on their share then. So the district elections in May should see the Tories make some gains from Labour and again the Tories and Labour should make gains from the Liberal Democrats
Is it wise to compare GE voting intent with LE voting intent like that? After all, we know that the LDs weren't really on 18% in the polls on the run-up to May's General Election; they were running at under 10%. Unless they had an astonishing spike of support just on the day in question, we'll have had simply the same thing that always happens when the national equivalent vote share pushes the Tories and Labour downwards and the Lib Dems upwards because people vote differently at local elections than they do general elections.
"The BBC will not make programmes aimed specifically at older viewers because their tastes are too varied, the corporation has said. Instead, the over-50s are urged to enjoy shows made for a “general audience”.
"The BBC will not make programmes aimed specifically at older viewers because their tastes are too varied, the corporation has said. Instead, the over-50s are urged to enjoy shows made for a “general audience”.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Good post.
I think the vaccine probably is effective (look at Israel is the cry here) but that the govt is also sh&t-scared that once people are out and about case rates will rise (who cares) and so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are sitting on a precious amount of goodwill atm and are worried about squandering it.
Of course they might squander this either way - a resurgence in deaths or continued restrictive measures.
I think, through gritted teeth, and although I am more with you on dates, I can see the logic for the current timetable.
That said, let's imagine cases, hosps, and deaths do skyrocket after June21st. Will it be possible to impose another lockdown? There may be a resistance movement but look at the polls.
My personal theory is that the government in hoping, hoping for #1
However, they are worried about the following - in the process of unlocking, everyone...er.... goes for it. This causes a third wave of whatever size.
If it happens before we are down into the 40s for vaccinations that could lead to problems with hospitals.
It would definitely mean more deaths among the refusnik groups. And among those for whom the vaccine can't be administered for medical reasons.
One thing the government can be absolutely certain of - that in that case, they will be blamed. Everyone crying out for freedom now, will be demanding answers as to why we weren't all welded in our homes until 103% of the population was vaccinated. 8 times over.
Yep. Although a monumental twat, I cannot believe that Boris would not realise that as soon as the words "June 21st no more restrictions" were out of his mouth, most of the country would have marked that down as the end date. And all this faff about masks, distancing, etc will be out the window also.
People have had months to ponder June 21st and it would be a huge electoral gamble for this not to happen.
I hope you're right, but then I read/hear older people talking about how important it is to be safe. Nick Palmer on here was supporting vaccine passports for indoor hospitality before everyone was vaccinated for example. Over 55s can basically outvote the young with ease.
We can't just keep locking down forever, even if the results of the disease are horrendous. It's always "just a little longer". I currently feel like the vaccination program is increasingly pointless. Not because I don't believe in vaccination, I will have one as soon as I'm offered, but I question whether there would be any material difference in the steps we've taken to unlock so far without one. If the May and June unlocking are being delayed/cancelled, then what's the point?
My biggest fear at the moment is that this is all going to be stretched out so that there are ongoing restrictions into Autumn, following which we will of course need to increase restrictions "as a precaution" when cases inevitably rise.
"The BBC will not make programmes aimed specifically at older viewers because their tastes are too varied, the corporation has said. Instead, the over-50s are urged to enjoy shows made for a “general audience”.
So alienate further the only demographic that watch consistently in very large numbers and go for a market that aren't interested in your output.....good job they don't work in the private sector...
The Boris’ name discussion is the dullest debate on PB since the doctors’ date notation classic of the genre.
For me it's the "West Lothian question".
Gosh that's a yawner.
The West Lothian question is one of the most important issues in politics. It's incredible that it still hasn't been resolved after about 45 years.
I think that's because it's a question with only 2 answers. Reverse devolution or Scottish independence. If both of those are ruled out all one can do is discuss the question without a resolution. Hence my boredom with it.
Or an English Parliament.
Or removing altogether non English (or non English and Welsh) MPs from voting on English (or English and Welsh) issues. Not a double majority or relying upon them abstaining, but having them as a separate class of MP able to vote on issues that are their responsibility and not on those that are devolved.
Yes, but those don't look to me like realistic options. The first would delegitimize the UK parliament and the second is way too fussy. Neither is reversing devolution realistic. And neither is Sindy unless the Scots vote for it. So we're stuck with an unanswerable question. Perhaps it's best to just learn to live with it. There are many questions in life with no answer. And is it really that important? I'm not sure it is. I don't lose much sleep over it.
Any devolution option has to include a separate English Parliament. That’s the single biggest flaw in the current arrangements.
But, as I say, that makes a mockery of the UK one. The imbalance in the size of the home nations is just too great for that model to be tenable. Creates more problems than it solves.
No, I rather fear that in practice it's Sindy or we muddle along not answering the "West Lothian question". Which I think I can live with.
Perhaps it's having had a French stepmother, but if there is one thing that gives me satisfaction, even in the bleakest of times, it's beating the French.
That above 38% for the Conservatives does look value. I don't see UKIP/Brexit/REFUK making much of a showing. LibDems are fighting to hold what they have. But more importantly, what is the driver for the Labour vote to come out? Their sparkling leader? Their great team? Their attractive policies? I am expecting a significant movement from Labour --> Can't Be Arsed Party... Turnout isn't going to break any records, on the up side at least.
Quite possibly. I do expect the Tories to win Hartlepool, too, and regular contributors will know i'm not one to play the negative expectations game.
I'm curious whether our right-of-centre contributors who aren't active Conservatives think this a good thing. Does Johnson need a ringing vote of confidence, or would it be better to encourage a note of caution?
That's a very good question. I'd usually vote for just about any party other than LP but I'm rooting for them in Hartlepool. Don't want to government to have yet more power.
Wahay. Right side of history for a month. I'll take that. You might get used to it and stay a little longer.
I'n not as against SKS as many are and I did vote Lab once (1997). Give the big hitters such as Benn, Cooper, Miliband and Reeves more prominence and who knows.
Mr. Eagles, do share with me how my voting differently would've changed that?
As an aside, my constituency is a straight blue-red marginal (or was, not sure what the margin is now, might be safeish for the Conservatives).
The options were an idiot or a dangerously far left nutcase. I hope the PM is replaced sooner rather than later, as he's alarmingly incompetent, but I'd vote for a buffoon over a communist or fascist every day of the week.
On the BBC: I very occasionally watch history or art programmes on BBC4, but not much. Stopped watching Top Gear when the team changed. Can't watch F1 because they abandoned the rights to open the door to Sky and stop a terrestrial rival getting it.
I'm not old, but pretty old-fashioned, yet I hardly watch TV any more. I used to watch the news when I had lunch, now I catch up on history or videogames or suchlike on Youtube. Used to watch ITV in the evening but I don't need to waste my life listening to Peston ramble speculatively or regurgitate whatever he's been fed.
If the BBC or TV news generally wants a clue about being deserted by audiences it's this: your product isn't good enough. Which is a shame, because sometimes the BBC can do great things, especially reports on the concentration camps in China.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
We don't have to guess. They say it very clearly front and centre in the document in question. If the efficacy is as they quote (I believe it's considerably better, but they're quoting the published documents; for example, the one on AZ is based on the original trial with the majority on a 3-week dose strategy which we now know to be far less efficacious than the 12 week strategy), then the model is accurate.
I think the wrong numbers are used, but you can see why they may have been required to use them ("Use the peer reviewed published studies by preference").
But people seem to be desperate to view either a secret conspiracy or a binary "they work/they don't work" 100%/0% output of the vaccines.
- The vaccines work. And indications are that they work significantly better than the estimates plugged into these models which are, however, defensible as pessimistic but plausible figures. - We're going to tick on with the unlocking roadmap and more data will come in and these models will be refined with the later and better data of real-world performance. I, personally, believe that the later data will point to far better outcomes (the hospitalisation and death projections have already dropped hugely between the January and March models as the data inputs improved) - I strongly suspect that the vaccine numbers they were given by the Cabinet Office excluded non-approved vaccines and those without currently functional supply lines, and allowed for an assumption that the EU would block vaccine exports. If so, then when Moderna and Novavax are delivering, the supply numbers will change for the better in a drastic fashion. - I also have a hunch that we'll see the effect on R far outstrip the most optimistic projections due to the effect on dispersion and because their estimates seem based on a study that was incomplete.
EXTINCTION Rebellion activists armed with hammers have today smashed windows at the Barclays Bank HQ in London. Extinction Rebellion said the action was part of its so called “Money Rebellion” against the capitalist system.
All those useful idiots who give the XR mob the free pass cos its all about the lovely cuddly save the planet, when the leaders have been clear from the start it is about smashing the capitalist system.
Sky News reported that this morning... as a lead in to their new show!
"The BBC will not make programmes aimed specifically at older viewers because their tastes are too varied, the corporation has said. Instead, the over-50s are urged to enjoy shows made for a “general audience”.
The entire daytime schedule of buy a house to let out, retire in the countryside, retire abroad, visit antique shops and auctions, get your antiques priced is aimed at over 50s!
Pearson reviews the 8,000 odd comments to Gove's request for thoughts on the vaxport. And gives the minister both barrels in response. Unrestrained anger at Johnson and co.'s betrayal.
I think it's quite offensive to effectively compare 120,000 deaths with possibly being required to carry vaccine passports for some forms of recreation. The latter may or may not be a good idea. But they are not remotely comparable.
She's not. The title makes that clear: "It's bad enough that Covid killed so many of our people; must we let it destroy who we are as well?"
I think Nick's wrong here. Both are very bad, but I'd take 1 in 500 of us dying in a pandemic over the UK becoming a surveillance state.
Put like that it's obvious to me too but civil liberties are a niche interest at the moment to be sure. Will that change? That's the question.
And then they wonder why every teacher - and I mean every teacher - is making plans to quit the profession in the next two years. That’s going to be rather expensive in itself given that those aged 55 or over will simply take retirement.
?! Must be a generous retirement package compared to the private sector.
It's only generous if you wait until 60 or your state retirement age (depending on when you joined the scheme). If you go before, you lose a chunk of it. But then, it's not that cheap to pay into, so you only get back what you ut in, (plus rpi).
You actually lose nothing - it is reduced to take account of the extra years of retirement you potentially have - in my case 12 years sop far. Obviously you also lose because of [potential salary missed. However, I tool the view that toomay late retirees die early so it was a no-brainer.
The Boris’ name discussion is the dullest debate on PB since the doctors’ date notation classic of the genre.
For me it's the "West Lothian question".
Gosh that's a yawner.
The West Lothian question is one of the most important issues in politics. It's incredible that it still hasn't been resolved after about 45 years.
I think that's because it's a question with only 2 answers. Reverse devolution or Scottish independence. If both of those are ruled out all one can do is discuss the question without a resolution. Hence my boredom with it.
Or an English Parliament.
Or removing altogether non English (or non English and Welsh) MPs from voting on English (or English and Welsh) issues. Not a double majority or relying upon them abstaining, but having them as a separate class of MP able to vote on issues that are their responsibility and not on those that are devolved.
Yes, but those don't look to me like realistic options. The first would delegitimize the UK parliament and the second is way too fussy. Neither is reversing devolution realistic. And neither is Sindy unless the Scots vote for it. So we're stuck with an unanswerable question. Perhaps it's best to just learn to live with it. There are many questions in life with no answer. And is it really that important? I'm not sure it is. I don't lose much sleep over it.
Any devolution option has to include a separate English Parliament. That’s the single biggest flaw in the current arrangements.
But, as I say, that makes a mockery of the UK one. The imbalance in the size of the home nations is just too great for that model to be tenable. Creates more problems than it solves.
No, I rather fear that in practice it's Sindy or we muddle along not answering the "West Lothian question". Which I think I can live with.
England is as much a home nation as the other 3 but the only one without its own Parliament.
It needs either its own Parliament or at least regional assemblies. If Starmer did get in in 2024 without a majority in England thanks to SNP support the West Lothian question would return with a vengeance.
Only the fact we have a Tory majority in England and the UK now keeps it on the backburner
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Good post.
I think the vaccine probably is effective (look at Israel is the cry here) but that the govt is also sh&t-scared that once people are out and about case rates will rise (who cares) and so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are sitting on a precious amount of goodwill atm and are worried about squandering it.
Of course they might squander this either way - a resurgence in deaths or continued restrictive measures.
I think, through gritted teeth, and although I am more with you on dates, I can see the logic for the current timetable.
That said, let's imagine cases, hosps, and deaths do skyrocket after June21st. Will it be possible to impose another lockdown? There may be a resistance movement but look at the polls.
My personal theory is that the government in hoping, hoping for #1
However, they are worried about the following - in the process of unlocking, everyone...er.... goes for it. This causes a third wave of whatever size.
If it happens before we are down into the 40s for vaccinations that could lead to problems with hospitals.
It would definitely mean more deaths among the refusnik groups. And among those for whom the vaccine can't be administered for medical reasons.
One thing the government can be absolutely certain of - that in that case, they will be blamed. Everyone crying out for freedom now, will be demanding answers as to why we weren't all welded in our homes until 103% of the population was vaccinated. 8 times over.
Yep. Although a monumental twat, I cannot believe that Boris would not realise that as soon as the words "June 21st no more restrictions" were out of his mouth, most of the country would have marked that down as the end date. And all this faff about masks, distancing, etc will be out the window also.
People have had months to ponder June 21st and it would be a huge electoral gamble for this not to happen.
I think masks and distancing will continue on a voluntary basis. Some will, some won't. And over time there will be movement from the "will" to the "won't" camps until equilibrium is reached. Some people will be inclined that way for the long term but they will be a minority. That's my vision of how this pans out, barring unpleasant shock developments from the virus (which can't be completely ruled out).
"The BBC will not make programmes aimed specifically at older viewers because their tastes are too varied, the corporation has said. Instead, the over-50s are urged to enjoy shows made for a “general audience”.
The entire daytime schedule of buy a house to let out, retire in the countryside, retire abroad, visit antique shops and auctions, get your antiques priced is aimed at over 50s!
EXTINCTION Rebellion activists armed with hammers have today smashed windows at the Barclays Bank HQ in London. Extinction Rebellion said the action was part of its so called “Money Rebellion” against the capitalist system.
All those useful idiots who give the XR mob the free pass cos its all about the lovely cuddly save the planet, when the leaders have been clear from the start it is about smashing the capitalist system.
Sky News reported that this morning... as a lead in to their new show!
Sky is another tv network in a mess....they have gone all eco woke and I doubt their audience is particularly interested....Even during the peak of pandemic their viewership numbers were rubbish.
If Disney and Amazon decide to outbid them for the footy or the EPL go for their own streaming channel, they will be toast. Uncle Rupert is a lot of things, but he isn't a dumdum, it was either because totally integrated media outlet or exit with a big cheque.
Pearson reviews the 8,000 odd comments to Gove's request for thoughts on the vaxport. And gives the minister both barrels in response. Unrestrained anger at Johnson and co.'s betrayal.
I think it's quite offensive to effectively compare 120,000 deaths with possibly being required to carry vaccine passports for some forms of recreation. The latter may or may not be a good idea. But they are not remotely comparable.
She's not. The title makes that clear: "It's bad enough that Covid killed so many of our people; must we let it destroy who we are as well?"
I think Nick's wrong here. Both are very bad, but I'd take 1 in 500 of us dying in a pandemic over the UK becoming a surveillance state.
Put like that it's obvious to me too but civil liberties are a niche interest at the moment to be sure. Will that change? That's the question.
The entire point is that they are trying to sneak them in now while civil liberties are a niche interest and while there is seemingly a justification for it.
The entire point of the plan is that by the time people notice and understand what has happened it will be too late and difficult to roll it back.
Well after some prodding and calls I finally got a phone call offering me a jab yesterday. It is to be given at the vaccination centre so I think it is genuine. 3.50 next Monday. It's a relief.
Have you sorted out with NHS Scotland whether you exist or not? And are on a GP's list?
I am assuming that I do exist because they were able to phone me. And I can post on PB as well. I don't have enough imagination to make all this up.
Wait until you wake up from this dream and find that you are in fact a Cornish flint knapper and that PB doesn't exist.
Arrgh! I think I'd have to invent it. In all seriousness the banter on here has been a great help these last few months.
I was reading the last few comments on the previous thread. Many PB posters (a robust bunch or we wouldn't be on here) suffering from anxiety and depression. This is horrendous.
The disease is horrendous also but the govt responding to the current situation - which means some, all, or none of it may be justified - has broken a large number of people such that when we are told we will be allowed to sit on a park bench at some unspecified time in the future, there are tears of joy and gratitude. Extraordinary.
And it has been clapped (literally) and rewarded in the polls the whole time.
I'll go back to them and have a read but I completely recognise what you are talking about. I had a serious discussion with my wife on our walk on Sunday about whether I needed to get anti-depressants. I have never felt like this before. Life has just had all the joy sucked out of it.
I don't particularly blame the government although the Scottish government has been even more repressive than Westminster. We really don't know how to handle this and it has been a painful learning curve. There are definite trade offs between the risk of the disease and the risks of depression and isolation. I am not sure we got it right.
A friend of mine who has been completely immune to black moods for thirty years - after he went sober - has now confessed he is "just surviving" and is sunk in gloom and apathy
It's real. It's worsening as we near the end of lockdown, which then seems to recede even further away...
The Boris’ name discussion is the dullest debate on PB since the doctors’ date notation classic of the genre.
For me it's the "West Lothian question".
Gosh that's a yawner.
The West Lothian question is one of the most important issues in politics. It's incredible that it still hasn't been resolved after about 45 years.
I think that's because it's a question with only 2 answers. Reverse devolution or Scottish independence. If both of those are ruled out all one can do is discuss the question without a resolution. Hence my boredom with it.
Or an English Parliament.
Or removing altogether non English (or non English and Welsh) MPs from voting on English (or English and Welsh) issues. Not a double majority or relying upon them abstaining, but having them as a separate class of MP able to vote on issues that are their responsibility and not on those that are devolved.
Yes, but those don't look to me like realistic options. The first would delegitimize the UK parliament and the second is way too fussy. Neither is reversing devolution realistic. And neither is Sindy unless the Scots vote for it. So we're stuck with an unanswerable question. Perhaps it's best to just learn to live with it. There are many questions in life with no answer. And is it really that important? I'm not sure it is. I don't lose much sleep over it.
Any devolution option has to include a separate English Parliament. That’s the single biggest flaw in the current arrangements.
But, as I say, that makes a mockery of the UK one. The imbalance in the size of the home nations is just too great for that model to be tenable. Creates more problems than it solves.
No, I rather fear that in practice it's Sindy or we muddle along not answering the "West Lothian question". Which I think I can live with.
England is as much a home nation as the other 3 but the only one without its own Parliament.
It needs either its own Parliament or at least regional assemblies. If Starmer did get in in 2024 without a majority in England thanks to SNP support the West Lothian question would return with a vengeance.
Only the fact we have a Tory majority in England and the UK now keeps it on the backburner
How would that work - the entire issue with an English Parliament is that its too big.
And regional assemblies won't work as central Government won't give up sufficient powers to make them effective.
The Conservatives are therefore up 4% on the 38% they got in the County council elections last time they were up in 2017, Labour are up 7% on the 27% they got in the last County elections and the LDs are down 11% on the 18% they got then. So on that basis we should see a few Labour gains from the Conservatives in the County elections and both the Conservatives and Labour should make gains from the LDs (albeit the LDs tend to poll a bit better locally than nationally).
When the district council seats up this year were last up in 2016 however the Conservatives only got 30%, so they are now up 12% on that total, Labour are also up 3% on the 31% they got in 2016. The LDs however are again down 8% on their share then. So the district elections in May should see the Tories make some gains from Labour and again the Tories and Labour should make gains from the Liberal Democrats
Is it wise to compare GE voting intent with LE voting intent like that? After all, we know that the LDs weren't really on 18% in the polls on the run-up to May's General Election; they were running at under 10%. Unless they had an astonishing spike of support just on the day in question, we'll have had simply the same thing that always happens when the national equivalent vote share pushes the Tories and Labour downwards and the Lib Dems upwards because people vote differently at local elections than they do general elections.
Last Yougov before the county council elections in 2017 was Conservatives 48%, Labour 29% and LDs 10%.
So partly true there, overestimated the Tories and Labour and underestimated the LDs (though the LDs were still polling higher then than they are now).
The last Yougov before the district elections in 2016 was Conservatives 30%, Labour 31% and LDs 6%, so it got the Conservative and Labour voteshares spot on but underestimated the LDs then.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Good post.
I think the vaccine probably is effective (look at Israel is the cry here) but that the govt is also sh&t-scared that once people are out and about case rates will rise (who cares) and so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are sitting on a precious amount of goodwill atm and are worried about squandering it.
Of course they might squander this either way - a resurgence in deaths or continued restrictive measures.
I think, through gritted teeth, and although I am more with you on dates, I can see the logic for the current timetable.
That said, let's imagine cases, hosps, and deaths do skyrocket after June21st. Will it be possible to impose another lockdown? There may be a resistance movement but look at the polls.
My personal theory is that the government in hoping, hoping for #1
However, they are worried about the following - in the process of unlocking, everyone...er.... goes for it. This causes a third wave of whatever size.
If it happens before we are down into the 40s for vaccinations that could lead to problems with hospitals.
It would definitely mean more deaths among the refusnik groups. And among those for whom the vaccine can't be administered for medical reasons.
One thing the government can be absolutely certain of - that in that case, they will be blamed. Everyone crying out for freedom now, will be demanding answers as to why we weren't all welded in our homes until 103% of the population was vaccinated. 8 times over.
Labour, Starmer and other assorted idiots on the Left will blame the government. Will the public care? Not sure.
I'm clinging to the hope that the government are saying this to scare people into getting vaccinated when the chance comes. I thought Nadhim Zahawi's comments about looking into this being "the right thing to do" seemed a little odd. Might be wishful thinking on my part, but something about that phrase sounded like a coded message.
1. Encourage vaccination. 2. Look thoughtful and prudent. 3. Provide reassurance to the anxious about the reopening. 4. Keep in the public's mind that the pandemic rages elsewhere (hence emphasizing our relative success).
These are the drivers for the talk.
And it IS all talk. There will be no vaccine passports for domestic use. I'm close to certain. Eat a sweaty sock if I'm wrong.
Talking of tv, if you are looking for something that is solid watch, City on a Hill....
Quite enjoyed the first few episodes but (like a lot of stuff nowadays) it tailed off for me. Owes a helluva lot to George V. Higgins superior chronicling of Boston low life and legal system, one of his early novels was even called A City on a Hill.
For me, all the arguments for the idea of this dystopian nightmare rest on the premise that the government, Big Tech and corporations have our best interest at heart. This is absurd on its face.
Here are the questions we should be asking the people in charge of rolling this program out. Why do we need these if the vaccines work? The point of the vaccine is to protect us from the virus when we’re out in the world and it turns out — they’re working! Hooray! These vaccines are a miracle of modern science and we should all be celebrating. Not only that, much of the evidence coming out shows that not only do the vaccines work, but they work against many of the variants, too. Why are people so invested in controlling whether or not everyone around them has the vaccine if this is the case?
And who are we to force people who might be vaccine-hesitant into getting a vaccine that has only been tested for a year and we have no idea what the long-term side effects will be? I’m happy to take my chances for science and for humanity on this vaccine — but make no mistake — we are all guinea pigs. Given you can’t sue pharmaceutical companies, we are guinea pigs with no recourse. Someone has to do it. I’m OK with it — but I would never force someone who wasn’t comfortable with the idea to get the jab. Their body, their choice — right? Or are we not doing that anymore?
Mr. Urquhart, I hardly ever watch preamble and aftermath stuff with F1 (doesn't interest me) but caught some last season by mistake. The self-righteous presenter bibbled about making no apology for talking about BLM nonsense.
Well, he should've. I watch F1 for sport, not a political lecture, especially one written by an overtly Marxist cabal of race-baiting cretins.
Mr. HYUFD, regional assemblies would be worse than the status quo. Slicing England into bits is not acceptable.
Says who?
A Yorkshire or even a Northern Parliament would be awesome, because I'd hate for us to be paying for another set of London centric politicians in an English Parliament.
You know the same tossers who will not pay a few extra million for the Trans Pennine improvements because it is slightly over budget but will continue to fund London transport projects when they are billions over budget.
Talking of tv, if you are looking for something that is solid watch, City on a Hill....
Quite enjoyed the first few episodes but (like a lot of stuff nowadays) it tailed off for me. Owes a helluva a lot to George V. Higgins superior chronicling of Boston low life and legal system, one of his early novels was even called A City on a Hill.
I agree middle of the season tailed off, but i thought the finale was good, underlining the ambiguous morals of the Kevin Bacon character.
Mr. HYUFD, regional assemblies would be worse than the status quo. Slicing England into bits is not acceptable.
Works really well in practically every other democracy, only in England must all decisions about the minute details of our lives be carried out hundreds of miles away by people who have no idea about the areas they are making decisions over.
Talking of tv, if you are looking for something that is solid watch, City on a Hill....
Quite enjoyed the first few episodes but (like a lot of stuff nowadays) it tailed off for me. Owes a helluva a lot to George V. Higgins superior chronicling of Boston low life and legal system, one of his early novels was even called A City on a Hill.
George V Higgins is a superb writer. The books written as if they were entirely conversations about what had happened seen from different perspectives were just superb. Never really read anything quite like them. May even dig them out again.
Well after some prodding and calls I finally got a phone call offering me a jab yesterday. It is to be given at the vaccination centre so I think it is genuine. 3.50 next Monday. It's a relief.
Have you sorted out with NHS Scotland whether you exist or not? And are on a GP's list?
I am assuming that I do exist because they were able to phone me. And I can post on PB as well. I don't have enough imagination to make all this up.
Wait until you wake up from this dream and find that you are in fact a Cornish flint knapper and that PB doesn't exist.
Arrgh! I think I'd have to invent it. In all seriousness the banter on here has been a great help these last few months.
I was reading the last few comments on the previous thread. Many PB posters (a robust bunch or we wouldn't be on here) suffering from anxiety and depression. This is horrendous.
The disease is horrendous also but the govt responding to the current situation - which means some, all, or none of it may be justified - has broken a large number of people such that when we are told we will be allowed to sit on a park bench at some unspecified time in the future, there are tears of joy and gratitude. Extraordinary.
And it has been clapped (literally) and rewarded in the polls the whole time.
I'll go back to them and have a read but I completely recognise what you are talking about. I had a serious discussion with my wife on our walk on Sunday about whether I needed to get anti-depressants. I have never felt like this before. Life has just had all the joy sucked out of it.
I don't particularly blame the government although the Scottish government has been even more repressive than Westminster. We really don't know how to handle this and it has been a painful learning curve. There are definite trade offs between the risk of the disease and the risks of depression and isolation. I am not sure we got it right.
A friend of mine who has been completely immune to black moods for thirty years - after he went sober - has now confessed he is "just surviving" and is sunk in gloom and apathy
It's real. It's worsening as we near the end of lockdown, which then seems to recede even further away...
Does the BBC have any shows at all for a 16-30 demographic?
As far as I am aware, it has basically nothing in the same space as beauty Youtubers, commentary channels, or gaming. It lacks the rights to rely on nostalgia - its reruns are still shows from the 1980s, not 90s Disney.
I realise that many posters here won't necessarily perceive the lack of content, for basically the same reason the BBC doesn't: if you're not the target market, this all looks like an unlikely candidate for TV.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Good post.
I think the vaccine probably is effective (look at Israel is the cry here) but that the govt is also sh&t-scared that once people are out and about case rates will rise (who cares) and so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are sitting on a precious amount of goodwill atm and are worried about squandering it.
Of course they might squander this either way - a resurgence in deaths or continued restrictive measures.
I think, through gritted teeth, and although I am more with you on dates, I can see the logic for the current timetable.
That said, let's imagine cases, hosps, and deaths do skyrocket after June21st. Will it be possible to impose another lockdown? There may be a resistance movement but look at the polls.
My personal theory is that the government in hoping, hoping for #1
However, they are worried about the following - in the process of unlocking, everyone...er.... goes for it. This causes a third wave of whatever size.
If it happens before we are down into the 40s for vaccinations that could lead to problems with hospitals.
It would definitely mean more deaths among the refusnik groups. And among those for whom the vaccine can't be administered for medical reasons.
One thing the government can be absolutely certain of - that in that case, they will be blamed. Everyone crying out for freedom now, will be demanding answers as to why we weren't all welded in our homes until 103% of the population was vaccinated. 8 times over.
Yep. Although a monumental twat, I cannot believe that Boris would not realise that as soon as the words "June 21st no more restrictions" were out of his mouth, most of the country would have marked that down as the end date. And all this faff about masks, distancing, etc will be out the window also.
People have had months to ponder June 21st and it would be a huge electoral gamble for this not to happen.
I hope you're right, but then I read/hear older people talking about how important it is to be safe. Nick Palmer on here was supporting vaccine passports for indoor hospitality before everyone was vaccinated for example. Over 55s can basically outvote the young with ease.
We can't just keep locking down forever, even if the results of the disease are horrendous. It's always "just a little longer". I currently feel like the vaccination program is increasingly pointless. Not because I don't believe in vaccination, I will have one as soon as I'm offered, but I question whether there would be any material difference in the steps we've taken to unlock so far without one. If the May and June unlocking are being delayed/cancelled, then what's the point?
My biggest fear at the moment is that this is all going to be stretched out so that there are ongoing restrictions into Autumn, following which we will of course need to increase restrictions "as a precaution" when cases inevitably rise.
As I said your mail last night was powerful and typical of many on here - well done for coming out and saying it.
And all I can say is that I really do think we are coming to the end of this. Any post-June 21st restrictions will be self-implemented (eg. Nick Palmer need not go to the no vaxport pub and choose one where the landlord has decided to use them: eg none). Same with masks and social distancing.
With the bulk of at risk groups vaccinated we can begin to resume normality. And if the PM decides otherwise because caution then he will have an almighty fight on his hands with his own party and, god help us I hope, with the opposition.
The Boris’ name discussion is the dullest debate on PB since the doctors’ date notation classic of the genre.
For me it's the "West Lothian question".
Gosh that's a yawner.
The West Lothian question is one of the most important issues in politics. It's incredible that it still hasn't been resolved after about 45 years.
I think that's because it's a question with only 2 answers. Reverse devolution or Scottish independence. If both of those are ruled out all one can do is discuss the question without a resolution. Hence my boredom with it.
Or an English Parliament.
Or removing altogether non English (or non English and Welsh) MPs from voting on English (or English and Welsh) issues. Not a double majority or relying upon them abstaining, but having them as a separate class of MP able to vote on issues that are their responsibility and not on those that are devolved.
Yes, but those don't look to me like realistic options. The first would delegitimize the UK parliament and the second is way too fussy. Neither is reversing devolution realistic. And neither is Sindy unless the Scots vote for it. So we're stuck with an unanswerable question. Perhaps it's best to just learn to live with it. There are many questions in life with no answer. And is it really that important? I'm not sure it is. I don't lose much sleep over it.
Any devolution option has to include a separate English Parliament. That’s the single biggest flaw in the current arrangements.
But, as I say, that makes a mockery of the UK one. The imbalance in the size of the home nations is just too great for that model to be tenable. Creates more problems than it solves.
No, I rather fear that in practice it's Sindy or we muddle along not answering the "West Lothian question". Which I think I can live with.
It’s only not a problem now, because there’s a safe Conservative majority.
If, at the next election, there’s a clear Conservative majority in England, but a Lab/SNP/PC stitch-up in Westminster, then we have a serious constitutional problem on our hands.
The government needs to sort this out, one way or the other, before the next election.
Pearson reviews the 8,000 odd comments to Gove's request for thoughts on the vaxport. And gives the minister both barrels in response. Unrestrained anger at Johnson and co.'s betrayal.
I think it's quite offensive to effectively compare 120,000 deaths with possibly being required to carry vaccine passports for some forms of recreation. The latter may or may not be a good idea. But they are not remotely comparable.
She's not. The title makes that clear: "It's bad enough that Covid killed so many of our people; must we let it destroy who we are as well?"
I think Nick's wrong here. Both are very bad, but I'd take 1 in 500 of us dying in a pandemic over the UK becoming a surveillance state.
Put like that it's obvious to me too but civil liberties are a niche interest at the moment to be sure. Will that change? That's the question.
The entire point is that they are trying to sneak them in now while civil liberties are a niche interest and while there is seemingly a justification for it.
The entire point of the plan is that by the time people notice and understand what has happened it will be too late and difficult to roll it back.
I'n not sure I buy in to that level of thinking to be honest, I think it has much more to do with the government poring over polls and focus group reports and going in the direction that the public thinks it wants.
Mr. Kurt, do you understand that Englishness is a thing?
Why can the Scots have a devolved Parliament, but not the English?
And how do you propose divvying out power? Do you think we should have different education policies and taxation rates in different parts of England? Or are you advocating that English regional assemblies get less power than Holyrood?
The Boris’ name discussion is the dullest debate on PB since the doctors’ date notation classic of the genre.
For me it's the "West Lothian question".
Gosh that's a yawner.
The West Lothian question is one of the most important issues in politics. It's incredible that it still hasn't been resolved after about 45 years.
I think that's because it's a question with only 2 answers. Reverse devolution or Scottish independence. If both of those are ruled out all one can do is discuss the question without a resolution. Hence my boredom with it.
Or an English Parliament.
Or removing altogether non English (or non English and Welsh) MPs from voting on English (or English and Welsh) issues. Not a double majority or relying upon them abstaining, but having them as a separate class of MP able to vote on issues that are their responsibility and not on those that are devolved.
Yes, but those don't look to me like realistic options. The first would delegitimize the UK parliament and the second is way too fussy. Neither is reversing devolution realistic. And neither is Sindy unless the Scots vote for it. So we're stuck with an unanswerable question. Perhaps it's best to just learn to live with it. There are many questions in life with no answer. And is it really that important? I'm not sure it is. I don't lose much sleep over it.
Any devolution option has to include a separate English Parliament. That’s the single biggest flaw in the current arrangements.
But, as I say, that makes a mockery of the UK one. The imbalance in the size of the home nations is just too great for that model to be tenable. Creates more problems than it solves.
No, I rather fear that in practice it's Sindy or we muddle along not answering the "West Lothian question". Which I think I can live with.
England is as much a home nation as the other 3 but the only one without its own Parliament.
It needs either its own Parliament or at least regional assemblies. If Starmer did get in in 2024 without a majority in England thanks to SNP support the West Lothian question would return with a vengeance.
Only the fact we have a Tory majority in England and the UK now keeps it on the backburner
How would that work - the entire issue with an English Parliament is that its too big.
And regional assemblies won't work as central Government won't give up sufficient powers to make them effective.
it seems pretty clear that the English don't want an English parliament, and don't want to reintroduce a heptarchy either if it involves giving real legislative and economic power to local English politicians, who are kind of OK on the subject of park benches and things, but there isn't enough political talent to go round. There is hardly a national leader of stellar quality (Nicola and Boris both very able but both very flawed, no other candidates), let alone local ones. How many candidates of real top stature are competing even for London? And if the answer is not many then how would the rest of England fare?
I don't know if anyone noticed but the last 2 days of case data in France was 10K and 8K. The previous few days were 46K up to 80K. So it is highly likely today there will be a huge number reported, highly likely to be 100K+ cases.
Yay! At least that's EXCITING. Something to look forward to
Comments
But I also take your point 3. I am deeply suspicious that somewhere in Whitehall they have seen a golden, once in a generation opportunity to slip a digital identity scheme through to the public on the back of 'safety is paramount' message. We know from previous Home secs that there is always a civil servant waiting to bring such a plan to their attention.
We must resist!!!
First Moderna vaccine given in Wales to a 24 year old who is a carer to her grandmother
It is a two dose vaccine
The question is really whether Starmer can gain enough Tory seats to get a hung parliament across the UK and then form a minority government for the UK propped up by SNP and Liberal Democrat MPs
However, they are worried about the following - in the process of unlocking, everyone...er.... goes for it. This causes a third wave of whatever size.
If it happens before we are down into the 40s for vaccinations that could lead to problems with hospitals.
It would definitely mean more deaths among the refusnik groups. And among those for whom the vaccine can't be administered for medical reasons.
One thing the government can be absolutely certain of - that in that case, they will be blamed. Everyone crying out for freedom now, will be demanding answers as to why we weren't all welded in our homes until 103% of the population was vaccinated. 8 times over.
Mr. (Miss? Sorry, I forget) Kirk, that's the key point. I do wonder if the poster of Ed Miliband in Salmond's pocket will come to be seen as a definitive image, and also a definitive problem, for the Labour Party.
"Vote for us and we'll... probably have to govern with a party that thinks the country shouldn't exist."
Or an English Parliament.
Or removing altogether non English (or non English and Welsh) MPs from voting on English (or English and Welsh) issues. Not a double majority or relying upon them abstaining, but having them as a separate class of MP able to vote on issues that are their responsibility and not on those that are devolved.
Salmond could be Britain's Dubcek!
We had a pair of swans locally who built a nest last spring at what appeared to be a safe height above the river. However, the Environment people apparently opened some floodgates higher up, and the river rose about two feet.
We never saw any cygnets, but I think we saw the same swans busily mating on the river not long before Easter. It was quite a sight!
And I would resign my membership and become politically homeless
And you can hold me to that
People have had months to ponder June 21st and it would be a huge electoral gamble for this not to happen.
The Tories are not up 4% on 2017. The latest YouGov before the 2017 local elections had the Tories on 48, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 10%, UKIP 5%
So the net change comparing like-for-like is Tories down 6%, Labour up 5%, Lib Dems up 3%.
It's like that standard question
"Have you ever said I love you and not meant it?
To which his answer appears to be 'Well I meant it at the time, but circumstances change"
05/04/21
France 66k
UK 105k
04/04/21
France 61k
UK 95k
03/04/21
France 195k
UK 286k
02/04/21
France 352k
UK 354k
01/04/21
France 380k
UK 616k
31/03/21
France 319k
UK 627k
https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations
Luckily for him, his opponent was a far left lunatic that was even worse.
Especially if they can pull off the previous trick and all it to be merged together into a few consolidated databases (this is not a good idea, data should be kept separate for security and privacy reasons).
I'm clinging to the hope that the government are saying this to scare people into getting vaccinated when the chance comes. I thought Nadhim Zahawi's comments about looking into this being "the right thing to do" seemed a little odd. Might be wishful thinking on my part, but something about that phrase sounded like a coded message.
If he wasn't as per usual standing cheering from the sidelines waving a big Boris Flag, that is.
"The BBC will not make programmes aimed specifically at older viewers because their tastes are too varied, the corporation has said. Instead, the over-50s are urged to enjoy shows made for a “general audience”.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/06/bbc-will-not-make-shows-older-viewers-pumping-40m-channel-aimed/
Now we are creeping out of it, I don’t have any big problem with it being done carefully, via certificates/passports whatever, but apparently they are a bigger threat to our liberty than house arrest!
"It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen..."
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/watch-snp-s-creepy-party-broadcast
Just think, thanks to your votes, Boris Johnson has made one of that far left lunatic's dreams come much more likely to happen, a united Ireland.
All those useful idiots who give the XR mob the free pass cos its all about the lovely cuddly save the planet, when the leaders have been clear from the start it is about smashing the capitalist system.
Good coders/modellers rarely stay in the field because those skills are not sufficiently appreciated and are much more appreciated (financially too) elsewhere. I've had recruitment agencies chasing me for jobs paying £10-20k more than I earn now, but mostly in areas that don't float my boat (optmising advertising for example - I do actually find my current job interesting if frustrating at times). Your average epidemiology professor has only a vague understanding of modelling and that's a bit of a problem. There's an attempt to create the Research Software Engineer role in universities, to provide programmers a career path outside papers and grants, but those top out at around £50k at present and start around £30k (or below - and they still kind of expect a PhD or a lot of experience), so they're only going to be - at most - a stepping stone to bigger and better things for decent software engineers. And if you're working with senstive health data, as I am, you won't be able to call them in anyway unless they're embedded in your team and cleared by the data provider as otherwise they won't be permitted to see the data.
Its a clean, simple solution. If this is a devolved subject, then the MP for the area loses the right to vote on the issue, in the same way as Westminster has removed the right to vote on laws for that area. Simple.
As for whether it is important: yes it is.
For example it would be easy to expand location data from just when you use it to check in to a regular update of your location every few minutes and could easily be done because some civil service wonk thinks its a good idea and adds it to a requirements spec for an update. Or alternatively you goto a bar and check in they decide to mate that with card transactions to see how much you are spending in the bar just for public health monitoring of course to assess if the nation is drinking too much.
Alternatively they just did far fewer tests and the backlog will take several days to clear.
After all, we know that the LDs weren't really on 18% in the polls on the run-up to May's General Election; they were running at under 10%. Unless they had an astonishing spike of support just on the day in question, we'll have had simply the same thing that always happens when the national equivalent vote share pushes the Tories and Labour downwards and the Lib Dems upwards because people vote differently at local elections than they do general elections.
We can't just keep locking down forever, even if the results of the disease are horrendous. It's always "just a little longer". I currently feel like the vaccination program is increasingly pointless. Not because I don't believe in vaccination, I will have one as soon as I'm offered, but I question whether there would be any material difference in the steps we've taken to unlock so far without one. If the May and June unlocking are being delayed/cancelled, then what's the point?
My biggest fear at the moment is that this is all going to be stretched out so that there are ongoing restrictions into Autumn, following which we will of course need to increase restrictions "as a precaution" when cases inevitably rise.
No, I rather fear that in practice it's Sindy or we muddle along not answering the "West Lothian question". Which I think I can live with.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/dubai-to-deport-group-involved-in-naked-video-shoot-1.1198427
https://twitter.com/yeswithdex/status/1379704646067961861?s=21
As an aside, my constituency is a straight blue-red marginal (or was, not sure what the margin is now, might be safeish for the Conservatives).
The options were an idiot or a dangerously far left nutcase. I hope the PM is replaced sooner rather than later, as he's alarmingly incompetent, but I'd vote for a buffoon over a communist or fascist every day of the week.
On the BBC: I very occasionally watch history or art programmes on BBC4, but not much. Stopped watching Top Gear when the team changed. Can't watch F1 because they abandoned the rights to open the door to Sky and stop a terrestrial rival getting it.
I'm not old, but pretty old-fashioned, yet I hardly watch TV any more. I used to watch the news when I had lunch, now I catch up on history or videogames or suchlike on Youtube. Used to watch ITV in the evening but I don't need to waste my life listening to Peston ramble speculatively or regurgitate whatever he's been fed.
If the BBC or TV news generally wants a clue about being deserted by audiences it's this: your product isn't good enough. Which is a shame, because sometimes the BBC can do great things, especially reports on the concentration camps in China.
They say it very clearly front and centre in the document in question.
If the efficacy is as they quote (I believe it's considerably better, but they're quoting the published documents; for example, the one on AZ is based on the original trial with the majority on a 3-week dose strategy which we now know to be far less efficacious than the 12 week strategy), then the model is accurate.
I think the wrong numbers are used, but you can see why they may have been required to use them ("Use the peer reviewed published studies by preference").
But people seem to be desperate to view either a secret conspiracy or a binary "they work/they don't work" 100%/0% output of the vaccines.
- The vaccines work. And indications are that they work significantly better than the estimates plugged into these models which are, however, defensible as pessimistic but plausible figures.
- We're going to tick on with the unlocking roadmap and more data will come in and these models will be refined with the later and better data of real-world performance. I, personally, believe that the later data will point to far better outcomes (the hospitalisation and death projections have already dropped hugely between the January and March models as the data inputs improved)
- I strongly suspect that the vaccine numbers they were given by the Cabinet Office excluded non-approved vaccines and those without currently functional supply lines, and allowed for an assumption that the EU would block vaccine exports. If so, then when Moderna and Novavax are delivering, the supply numbers will change for the better in a drastic fashion.
- I also have a hunch that we'll see the effect on R far outstrip the most optimistic projections due to the effect on dispersion and because their estimates seem based on a study that was incomplete.
https://news.sky.com/story/the-daily-climate-show-sky-news-programme-dedicated-to-global-crisis-is-launching-this-week-12266649
It needs either its own Parliament or at least regional assemblies. If Starmer did get in in 2024 without a majority in England thanks to SNP support the West Lothian question would return with a vengeance.
Only the fact we have a Tory majority in England and the UK now keeps it on the backburner
If Disney and Amazon decide to outbid them for the footy or the EPL go for their own streaming channel, they will be toast. Uncle Rupert is a lot of things, but he isn't a dumdum, it was either because totally integrated media outlet or exit with a big cheque.
The entire point of the plan is that by the time people notice and understand what has happened it will be too late and difficult to roll it back.
It's real. It's worsening as we near the end of lockdown, which then seems to recede even further away...
And regional assemblies won't work as central Government won't give up sufficient powers to make them effective.
So partly true there, overestimated the Tories and Labour and underestimated the LDs (though the LDs were still polling higher then than they are now).
The last Yougov before the district elections in 2016 was Conservatives 30%, Labour 31% and LDs 6%, so it got the Conservative and Labour voteshares spot on but underestimated the LDs then.
So yes, I would expect the LDs to do better locally again than they do nationally, but potentially to lose seats in the county elections certainly. The Conservatives should make gains in the district elections and Labour should make gains in the county elections.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
2. Look thoughtful and prudent.
3. Provide reassurance to the anxious about the reopening.
4. Keep in the public's mind that the pandemic rages elsewhere (hence emphasizing our relative success).
These are the drivers for the talk.
And it IS all talk. There will be no vaccine passports for domestic use. I'm close to certain. Eat a sweaty sock if I'm wrong.
https://spectator.us/topic/hate-vaxport-vaccine-passports-freedom/
For me, all the arguments for the idea of this dystopian nightmare rest on the premise that the government, Big Tech and corporations have our best interest at heart. This is absurd on its face.
Here are the questions we should be asking the people in charge of rolling this program out. Why do we need these if the vaccines work? The point of the vaccine is to protect us from the virus when we’re out in the world and it turns out — they’re working! Hooray! These vaccines are a miracle of modern science and we should all be celebrating. Not only that, much of the evidence coming out shows that not only do the vaccines work, but they work against many of the variants, too. Why are people so invested in controlling whether or not everyone around them has the vaccine if this is the case?
And who are we to force people who might be vaccine-hesitant into getting a vaccine that has only been tested for a year and we have no idea what the long-term side effects will be? I’m happy to take my chances for science and for humanity on this vaccine — but make no mistake — we are all guinea pigs. Given you can’t sue pharmaceutical companies, we are guinea pigs with no recourse. Someone has to do it. I’m OK with it — but I would never force someone who wasn’t comfortable with the idea to get the jab. Their body, their choice — right? Or are we not doing that anymore?
https://twitter.com/EvolveDotZoo/status/1379453086750625792
https://twitter.com/EvolveDotZoo/status/1379453087962820613
https://twitter.com/EvolveDotZoo/status/1379453089166589962
Well, he should've. I watch F1 for sport, not a political lecture, especially one written by an overtly Marxist cabal of race-baiting cretins.
A Yorkshire or even a Northern Parliament would be awesome, because I'd hate for us to be paying for another set of London centric politicians in an English Parliament.
You know the same tossers who will not pay a few extra million for the Trans Pennine improvements because it is slightly over budget but will continue to fund London transport projects when they are billions over budget.
Not slicing England into bits is not acceptable.
As far as I am aware, it has basically nothing in the same space as beauty Youtubers, commentary channels, or gaming. It lacks the rights to rely on nostalgia - its reruns are still shows from the 1980s, not 90s Disney.
I realise that many posters here won't necessarily perceive the lack of content, for basically the same reason the BBC doesn't: if you're not the target market, this all looks like an unlikely candidate for TV.
And all I can say is that I really do think we are coming to the end of this. Any post-June 21st restrictions will be self-implemented (eg. Nick Palmer need not go to the no vaxport pub and choose one where the landlord has decided to use them: eg none). Same with masks and social distancing.
With the bulk of at risk groups vaccinated we can begin to resume normality. And if the PM decides otherwise because caution then he will have an almighty fight on his hands with his own party and, god help us I hope, with the opposition.
If, at the next election, there’s a clear Conservative majority in England, but a Lab/SNP/PC stitch-up in Westminster, then we have a serious constitutional problem on our hands.
The government needs to sort this out, one way or the other, before the next election.
Why can the Scots have a devolved Parliament, but not the English?
And how do you propose divvying out power? Do you think we should have different education policies and taxation rates in different parts of England? Or are you advocating that English regional assemblies get less power than Holyrood?