EXTINCTION Rebellion activists armed with hammers have today smashed windows at the Barclays Bank HQ in London. Extinction Rebellion said the action was part of its so called “Money Rebellion” against the capitalist system.
All those useful idiots who give the XR mob the free pass cos its all about the lovely cuddly save the planet, when the leaders have been clear from the start it is about smashing the capitalist system.
Sky News reported that this morning... as a lead in to their new show!
Sky is another tv network in a mess....they have gone all eco woke and I doubt their audience is particularly interested....Even during the peak of pandemic their viewership numbers were rubbish.
If Disney and Amazon decide to outbid them for the footy or the EPL go for their own streaming channel, they will be toast. Uncle Rupert is a lot of things, but he isn't a dumdum, it was either because totally integrated media outlet or exit with a big cheque.
It is amazing just how far Sky have gone eco woke and generally to the left much like CNN
It also prides itself with announcing 'It is the only programme from the heart of Westminster' without a thought of just how Metropolitan out of touch it sounds
Sky is part of Comcast... they have plenty of cash
As I said your mail last night was powerful and typical of many on here - well done for coming out and saying it.
And all I can say is that I really do think we are coming to the end of this. Any post-June 21st restrictions will be self-implemented (eg. Nick Palmer need not go to the no vaxport pub and choose one where the landlord has decided to use them: eg none). Same with masks and social distancing.
With the bulk of at risk groups vaccinated we can begin to resume normality. And if the PM decides otherwise because caution then he will have an almighty fight on his hands with his own party and, god help us I hope, with the opposition.
Thanks, I appreciate your kind words.
Rationally I know you're probably right. I've got two parallel thought processes going on in my head - the rational one where I can look at the numbers and come to the same conclusions as you and the irrational one where I feel utterly powerless and threatened by every media pronouncement or model. I pride myself on being able to think rationally and logically (it's pretty important for my job), but this irrational worrying is another symptom of lockdown.
The worrying has proved time and time again to not be irrational.
I'd say this statement is flat out wrong. It's a rewrite of history unless you and I have been living through different pandemics. Again and again during this whole wretched episode the virus has been underestimated and that worry is the one which has consistently been proved right. The worry about the government imposing lockdowns too early or without justification has tended to be proved wrong. And the current outbreak of worry about the roadmap being reneged on, or vaccine passports coming in, or long term compulsory masks and distancing etc, all of that remains at this point just that - people worrying. I don't criticize people for this (unless they succumb to silly conspiracy theory type stuff about the Surveillance State, and even then only gently, since it can be healthy to worry about such things), but as of now the evidence is not imo there to justify it.
If the government were genuinely worried about a mutant strain of the virus impervious to existing vaccines, it would have taken effective action to limit who can enter the country and imposed strict and effective quarantine arrangements on those few let in.
It has done neither of these things and continues not to. Instead all of its efforts are focused on controlling what vaccinated people can do here. It is nonsense on stilts.
So either the government consists of utter morons. Or it has another agenda.
Or both.
Madcap conspirary theories abounded a year ago and I didn't believe a word they said. Now less sure because so far the hypothesis fits the observations ...
75-80 years on from unspeakable medical experiments and why are we vaccinating children with a product whose safety testing only ends in 2023 or -24? Healthy children don't die of this virus any more often than they die from lightning strikes.
Children are being submitted for experiments by parents who themselves are not well informed enough to know that the products are unlicensed. They have *emergency use authorisation* ... which they wouldn't have got without corruption at WHO and CDC level. See Dr Pierre Kory's testimony. One only has to look to find medics. speaking out and suggesting that some of their colleagues would do so but fear for their jobs.
Interesting that there's now calls for Moderna to be reserved for under 50s, I expect the same to be the for Novavax and the remaining 13m Pfizer doses once the second jabs are done for the last one. Over 50s will get the AZ vaccine first and second and I think the government is going to shift to the other three for under 50s. Moderna is 8.5m people's worth in Q2, Pfizer we have 6.5m people's worth in Q2 and Novavax we'll get around 3m people's worth per month from May onwards.
Now that there are so few over 50s left it makes sense to reserve the incoming AZ doses for them as most are now going to be people who previously refused.
Plus possibly some J&J if it gets approved here soon, which I think is likely.
In aggregate, according to The Times, the government expects to average 2.7 million jabs/week until the end of July, and 2 million a week after July. I'm not sure why the number would fall, I'd have thought availability after July would be higher. These are 0.5m and 1.9m less per week than was expected back in February, which might explain some of the SAGE caution.
"World’s billionaires have seen their combined wealth soar by $5.1 trillion to $13.1 trillion Forbes reveals as the number of super-rich making the list soars by 660 to 2,755
The ranks of the ultra-wealthy have expanded even in a year when the coronavirus pandemic upended the global economy This year's billionaires are worth a combined $13.1 trillion, up from $8 trillion last year - as the soaring stock market has helped boost investment income Bezos had $177B, cementing his spot as the wealthiest billionaire on the list Tesla CEO Elon Musk jumped into second spot on with $155B, up from 31st The list saw 493 newcomers, including Kim Kardashian"
Yet too many are opposed to an ultra wealth tax (I am talking net assets of £50m+ here). How many trillion would it take for that tiny group to own to change minds on what a fair tax would be?
Then problem with an ultra wealth tax is that it won't raise much money.
Warren's wealth tax would raise $300bn a year in the US, and thats only on net worth over $50m.
She makes the totally naive assumption that those affected wouldn’t change their behaviour in response to it. She also fails to understand that the compounding effect over time would reduce the tax base substantially.
If the wealth is rising by $5 trillion a year, lets assume for back of envelope purposes a quarter of that is in the US. So net worth increasing by $1.25 trillion and $300 bn new tax, puts the compounding effect over time clearly in the opposite direction to that you suggest.
The system is so rigged in favour of asset holders that a 2 or 3% tax on the super elite wont slow them down very much at all.
The economics of this are much more complicated than such simplistic solutions.
The seriously rich mostly owe their wealth to shareholdings in companies they founded. If they have to sell 3% of their shares every year to pay a nominal tax, how long will it be before they no longer have control of their own company?
The vast majority of wealth isn’t simply liquid cash in the bank, it’s in businesses and investments. A tax on wealth is a tax on business.
If they want to make serious money then tax high incomes, dividends and capital gains - but they won’t do that, because it affects themselves and their donors far too much.
Having had my cruise for May 17th cancelled I have now been able to rebook for August. It will be a mystery tour leaving Southampton and returning in 7 days. The captain will decide where we go depending on the weather- in search of the sun!
One interesting feature of this argument is that the split between those who broadly do and do not trust the government to stick to its unlocking timetable do not necessarily fall into the left/right split you would expect. Very broadly, the left appears to trust the government more than the right. Though this is perhaps reflected in the behaviour of parliament, where Labour has broadly supported the government, and the only opposition has come from Conservative back benches.
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
Necessary visits to people in need has always been allowed AFAIK. And who cares if it isn't. I'd go and I think your wife is wrong.
Philip, the whole bloody country was breaking the law this weekend, me included. No need to be a martyr.
Not up to him, if his wife isn't comfortable breaking the rules.
It’s a sign of how warped our society has become in just one year that you can say this.
The decision rests with Philip and his grandparents, no one else.
You ignore the feelings of your other half do you?
You would be o for that to work in reverse?
I ignore the law when it’s unreasonable. I ignore my other half when she’s being the same. It’s worked so far.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Covid is not, yet, a minuscule risk. Absolutely not. Smaller, shrinking, but not minuscule.
Yes, it is. It really is. The vulnerable have been vaccinated. The risk is tiny. We can't go through life not getting sick - it's completely unrealistic and unreasonable to expect the vast majority of people to put their lives on hold indefinitely. The balance of risk has now shifted to the mental health of the young.
EXTINCTION Rebellion activists armed with hammers have today smashed windows at the Barclays Bank HQ in London. Extinction Rebellion said the action was part of its so called “Money Rebellion” against the capitalist system.
All those useful idiots who give the XR mob the free pass cos its all about the lovely cuddly save the planet, when the leaders have been clear from the start it is about smashing the capitalist system.
Sky News reported that this morning... as a lead in to their new show!
Sky is another tv network in a mess....they have gone all eco woke and I doubt their audience is particularly interested....Even during the peak of pandemic their viewership numbers were rubbish.
If Disney and Amazon decide to outbid them for the footy or the EPL go for their own streaming channel, they will be toast. Uncle Rupert is a lot of things, but he isn't a dumdum, it was either because totally integrated media outlet or exit with a big cheque.
It is amazing just how far Sky have gone eco woke and generally to the left much like CNN
It also prides itself with announcing 'It is the only programme from the heart of Westminster' without a thought of just how Metropolitan out of touch it sounds
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Covid is not, yet, a minuscule risk. Absolutely not. Smaller, shrinking, but not minuscule.
Sorry but it is, deaths are below average now. We have negative excess deaths.
There is no excuse not to be at Stage 3 already, July 2020 restrictions. The vulnerable have been vaccinated, deaths are below average, R has collapsed and we are past the point of share of people vaccinated that Israel was at when they lifted restrictions.
I'm as frustrated as anyone, but the logic that right now, with current restrictions, we have negative excess deaths means that we can get rid of all restrictions right now doesn't hold up. Last August, we had negative excess deaths. The unlocking we did was cautious and limited and still saw an increase. Should we drop all restrictions right now, we won't be at negative excess deaths for long.
Those in Phase 2 of vaccination are at between 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation when sick. There are about 20 million of them yet uninfected and unvaccinated. That's 200,000-400,000 hospitalisations waiting for us; we can't sustain them all in a short period of time. Should we overwhelm the NHS, the death rate becomes significant, even in these.
We have fully vaccinated about 8% of the country, of whom about half have full protection. We've given a single dose to far more, but that doesn't have the full effect (it does more than enough to be very much worth giving it). We've got 300,000-600,000 hospitalisations waiting for us in the 1-dose-vaccinated if we let it rip now.
So, overall, 500,000-1,000,000 hospitalisations if we let it rip fully right now.
Caught visiting your family during a pandemic is hardly likely to have serious career-limiting consequences
Your confidence in the SRA and SDT to treat those it regulates fairly is much higher than mine.
I wouldn't have much confidence in the common sense of the Gen. Pharm. Council, either. Fortunately as I'm retired I don't, personally, give a whatsit.
"World’s billionaires have seen their combined wealth soar by $5.1 trillion to $13.1 trillion Forbes reveals as the number of super-rich making the list soars by 660 to 2,755
The ranks of the ultra-wealthy have expanded even in a year when the coronavirus pandemic upended the global economy This year's billionaires are worth a combined $13.1 trillion, up from $8 trillion last year - as the soaring stock market has helped boost investment income Bezos had $177B, cementing his spot as the wealthiest billionaire on the list Tesla CEO Elon Musk jumped into second spot on with $155B, up from 31st The list saw 493 newcomers, including Kim Kardashian"
Yet too many are opposed to an ultra wealth tax (I am talking net assets of £50m+ here). How many trillion would it take for that tiny group to own to change minds on what a fair tax would be?
Then problem with an ultra wealth tax is that it won't raise much money.
Warren's wealth tax would raise $300bn a year in the US, and thats only on net worth over $50m.
She makes the totally naive assumption that those affected wouldn’t change their behaviour in response to it. She also fails to understand that the compounding effect over time would reduce the tax base substantially.
If the wealth is rising by $5 trillion a year, lets assume for back of envelope purposes a quarter of that is in the US. So net worth increasing by $1.25 trillion and $300 bn new tax, puts the compounding effect over time clearly in the opposite direction to that you suggest.
The system is so rigged in favour of asset holders that a 2 or 3% tax on the super elite wont slow them down very much at all.
The economics of this are much more complicated than such simplistic solutions.
The seriously rich mostly owe their wealth to shareholdings in companies they founded. If they have to sell 3% of their shares every year to pay a nominal tax, how long will it be before they no longer have control of their own company?
The vast majority of wealth isn’t simply liquid cash in the bank, it’s in businesses and investments. A tax on wealth is a tax on business.
If they want to make serious money then tax high incomes, dividends and capital gains - but they won’t do that, because it affects themselves and their donors far too much.
The cynical suggest that this is being backed by institutional investors - who see it as profoundly unfair that just because people started a company, they get to keep it.
Is it too early to bet on the May elections? Could the parties in government lose support if they row back of unlocking, or unlock faster than the electorate want? Will vaccine passport decisions have an effect on voting intentions? I can forsee some late swings, but don’t know which way.
Positivity is a real thing because of both neuroplasticity (changing pathways and strengths of pathways in the brain) and how we form and maintain memories (through connections to other concepts and experiences, which change slightly with each act of recollection). Deliberately creating new positive and helpful brain pathways and memories is used in therapy for PTSD and other traumas. If anyone is interested, Mindsight by Daniel Siegal is very good on this.
This is why I switch off from this site when it gets too negative, and why I try - not alway successfully - to avoid wallowing in bad news.
This also plays into creating a growth mindset, which in turn diminishes the prospects of falling into victimhood.
The economics of this are much more complicated than such simplistic solutions.
The seriously rich mostly owe their wealth to shareholdings in companies they founded. If they have to sell 3% of their shares every year to pay a nominal tax, how long will it be before they no longer have control of their own company?
The vast majority of wealth isn’t simply liquid cash in the bank, it’s in businesses and investments. A tax on wealth is a tax on business.
If they want to make serious money then tax high incomes, dividends and capital gains - but they won’t do that, because it affects themselves and their donors far too much.
The very well-off in the US are so hugely under-taxed that there's plenty of room to take some dosh off them before behaviour gets distorted in damaging ways. Maybe not Elizabeth Warren-style amounts, but certainly some large sums in total.
I'm no fan of this government (a gross understatement), but I don't share the doom and gloom of so many on here.
The government set out a roadmap with which most broadly agreed, in the context of a horrendous death and illness toll in January/February. It's now April. Yes, it was a cautious roadmap - understandable given the history of the virus and some uncertainty about the efficacy of vaccines. That uncertainty has diminished massively, but not completely. As far as I can tell, the government is sticking to the roadmap and restrictions will be eased next week, and more significantly on May 17th and then in June. If the government backtracks on the roadmap without good reason I'll join the complainants, but there's no sign of that yet.
Meanwhile, while the restrictions are a complete pain, they are increasingly less arduous, especially as people interpret them more sensibly. We've started having visitors to the house, because we know infections locally are now very low. The police have not knocked on our door, nor will they. I leave the house several times a day. Next Monday, my daughter has booked a table at a beachfront bar from 2pm - 8pm; we shall visit in shifts of six.
I just wonder if a bit of patience would be wise. We should man the barricades if/when it is clear that conspiracies about extending lockdown and enforcing ID cards are imminent, but not while they are still theoretical risks that I don't actually think will happen.
Yep, more or less my position too. So long as I'm right about domestic vaccine passports being an idea destined to remain that way, I think things are looking ok. And next Monday is for me very important. I hope it will make a big difference and I think it will.
Wow. "0.5% of the country" when we've signed for 17 million. So, 8.5 million people is 0.5% of the population. [does arithmetic] Does - does he think that 1.7 billion people live in the UK?
Comedy Dave Keating has a point, here, and this is further proof
He reckons the EU chatterati - pundits, hacks, politicians - all read far too much British media and social media, because English is the common language, and because the British, naturally, use it best: most entertainingly and pointedly. So British talking points on Twitter become EU talking points, and British tabloid headlines antagonise EU leaders and thinkers even though they are aimed at UK leaders and thinkers.
It is extravagantly ironic on many levels. Now we have left we still haunt them, even as they loom over us
We're a bit like Greece in the Roman Empire, though the history is reversed. The Romans were oddly obsessed with the Greeks
"World’s billionaires have seen their combined wealth soar by $5.1 trillion to $13.1 trillion Forbes reveals as the number of super-rich making the list soars by 660 to 2,755
The ranks of the ultra-wealthy have expanded even in a year when the coronavirus pandemic upended the global economy This year's billionaires are worth a combined $13.1 trillion, up from $8 trillion last year - as the soaring stock market has helped boost investment income Bezos had $177B, cementing his spot as the wealthiest billionaire on the list Tesla CEO Elon Musk jumped into second spot on with $155B, up from 31st The list saw 493 newcomers, including Kim Kardashian"
Yet too many are opposed to an ultra wealth tax (I am talking net assets of £50m+ here). How many trillion would it take for that tiny group to own to change minds on what a fair tax would be?
Then problem with an ultra wealth tax is that it won't raise much money.
Warren's wealth tax would raise $300bn a year in the US, and thats only on net worth over $50m.
She makes the totally naive assumption that those affected wouldn’t change their behaviour in response to it. She also fails to understand that the compounding effect over time would reduce the tax base substantially.
If the wealth is rising by $5 trillion a year, lets assume for back of envelope purposes a quarter of that is in the US. So net worth increasing by $1.25 trillion and $300 bn new tax, puts the compounding effect over time clearly in the opposite direction to that you suggest.
The system is so rigged in favour of asset holders that a 2 or 3% tax on the super elite wont slow them down very much at all.
The economics of this are much more complicated than such simplistic solutions.
The seriously rich mostly owe their wealth to shareholdings in companies they founded. If they have to sell 3% of their shares every year to pay a nominal tax, how long will it be before they no longer have control of their own company?
The vast majority of wealth isn’t simply liquid cash in the bank, it’s in businesses and investments. A tax on wealth is a tax on business.
If they want to make serious money then tax high incomes, dividends and capital gains - but they won’t do that, because it affects themselves and their donors far too much.
Take Bill Gates as an example as his info is easy to find. This is a couple of years out of date but shows the proportion of wealth
He owned $55bn in Microsoft, 4.3% of the company. He had other investment assets of $21bn, $11bn of which were in Berkshire Hathaway.
He only owns a small proportion of Microsoft and has done for many years without it being a problem for him or Microsoft to grow. He could easily afford a 2-3% wealth tax without coming anywhere near his Microsoft holdings if he so wished.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Covid is not, yet, a minuscule risk. Absolutely not. Smaller, shrinking, but not minuscule.
Sorry but it is, deaths are below average now. We have negative excess deaths.
There is no excuse not to be at Stage 3 already, July 2020 restrictions. The vulnerable have been vaccinated, deaths are below average, R has collapsed and we are past the point of share of people vaccinated that Israel was at when they lifted restrictions.
I'm as frustrated as anyone, but the logic that right now, with current restrictions, we have negative excess deaths means that we can get rid of all restrictions right now doesn't hold up. Last August, we had negative excess deaths. The unlocking we did was cautious and limited and still saw an increase. Should we drop all restrictions right now, we won't be at negative excess deaths for long.
Those in Phase 2 of vaccination are at between 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation when sick. There are about 20 million of them yet uninfected and unvaccinated. That's 200,000-400,000 hospitalisations waiting for us; we can't sustain them all in a short period of time. Should we overwhelm the NHS, the death rate becomes significant, even in these.
We have fully vaccinated about 8% of the country, of whom about half have full protection. We've given a single dose to far more, but that doesn't have the full effect (it does more than enough to be very much worth giving it). We've got 300,000-600,000 hospitalisations waiting for us in the 1-dose-vaccinated if we let it rip now.
So, overall, 500,000-1,000,000 hospitalisations if we let it rip fully right now.
I'm no fan of this government (a gross understatement), but I don't share the doom and gloom of so many on here.
The government set out a roadmap with which most broadly agreed, in the context of a horrendous death and illness toll in January/February. It's now April. Yes, it was a cautious roadmap - understandable given the history of the virus and some uncertainty about the efficacy of vaccines. That uncertainty has diminished massively, but not completely. As far as I can tell, the government is sticking to the roadmap and restrictions will be eased next week, and more significantly on May 17th and then in June. If the government backtracks on the roadmap without good reason I'll join the complainants, but there's no sign of that yet.
Meanwhile, while the restrictions are a complete pain, they are increasingly less arduous, especially as people interpret them more sensibly. We've started having visitors to the house, because we know infections locally are now very low. The police have not knocked on our door, nor will they. I leave the house several times a day. Next Monday, my daughter has booked a table at a beachfront bar from 2pm - 8pm; we shall visit in shifts of six.
I just wonder if a bit of patience would be wise. We should man the barricades if/when it is clear that conspiracies about extending lockdown and enforcing ID cards are imminent, but not while they are still theoretical risks that I don't actually think will happen.
Yes, I'm broadly with you. I think the problem for me is that I don't trust the government, particularly given its predilection for following lumpen opinion over science and principle. Johnson want to be liked, and I don't think that's doing us any favours. If the road map is adhered to (inc international travel 17 May (in conjunction with traffic light system) ) then I'll heave a huge sigh of relief.
My view is almost the same but slightly nuanced re: Boris. I think Boris is a metro liberal at heart and his instincts are towards liberty. The same cannot be said, sadly, for many others in his party –the Patels and the rump Red Wallers, who love a bit of authoritarian lock'em and flog'em. The Tory version of the Sandy Rentool Tendency if you will.
Wow. "0.5% of the country" when we've signed for 17 million. So, 8.5 million people is 0.5% of the population. [does arithmetic] Does - does he think that 1.7 billion people live in the UK?
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
Necessary visits to people in need has always been allowed AFAIK. And who cares if it isn't. I'd go and I think your wife is wrong.
Philip, the whole bloody country was breaking the law this weekend, me included. No need to be a martyr.
Not up to him, if his wife isn't comfortable breaking the rules.
It’s a sign of how warped our society has become in just one year that you can say this.
The decision rests with Philip and his grandparents, no one else.
You ignore the feelings of your other half do you?
You would be o for that to work in reverse?
I ignore the law when it’s unreasonable. I ignore my other half when she’s being the same. It’s worked so far.
More to the point, how do you figure that not ignoring your other half is evidence of "societal warping"?
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
It's #3. The only explanation which makes sense to me. The fact that they were making plans for these ID cards last December even as they were telling us to go out and enjoy Xmas tells me that these plans are simply using health as a pretext to extort control and power over us.
I simply will not do-operate with any of this rubbish. I am going to live my life as a free woman capable of making my own judgments not as some cowering imbecile asking permission to go out of my front door.
Why doesn't my more prosaic explanation also make sense to you? Latest expression as per my post at 10.08.
Is this not more likely than that they are planning to bring in an oppressive nationwide high-tech ID and tracking regime by the back door, using Covid as an excuse?
Two reasons.
1) I don't trust the government. 2) The evidence which is coming out about the amount of effort which has already been put into developing ID cards.
No argument with (1). Indeed I'm saying they are being deceptive in pretending there's a serious chance of doing most of the the stuff they say they are considering. (2) I'll pass on. Except to say they put a lot of effort into track and trace too, didn't they? Incompetence eats effort for breakfast.
And are they "morons" (as per your other post)? Yep, but not politically. Far from it.
But ok, so we'll see. My prediction is it's mainly all talk (being aired and sponsored for the reasons I set out) and that post June 21 and the end stage domestic reopening, we will be close enough to normality as to fairly and accurately describe it that way. And crucially it will feel normal. There will be no proving of covid status in order to go about a full and normal daily life in this country.
If I'm wrong I'll bake a large humble pie and send you a piece.
Cookie's five tests of normality: Will we have moved to the stage where we don't have to wear masks in shops/leisure settings/public transport? Will we still have regular government advertising about coronavirus? Will we be able to have parties (e.g. 50 people in a house)? Will we be able to buy a drink at a bar in a pub, rather than wait at a table? Will we be able to arrive at a cafe without having to give our contact details?
I'm not trying to make a point here - I'm genuinely interested in what you think? My guesses are that we will largely fail them all. But very happy to hear from more optimistic posters.
By mid summer -
1. Certain pass. 2. Probable fail. 3. Certain pass. 4. Certain pass. 5. 50/50.
This is quite amusing from the BBC: A kayaker thought to have breached Covid rules by travelling from England to camp at Loch Lomond had to be rescued after getting stuck on an island without a paddle.
Apparently he didn't tie the paddle to the kayak and while he was having a walk it drifted off.
I'm no fan of this government (a gross understatement), but I don't share the doom and gloom of so many on here.
The government set out a roadmap with which most broadly agreed, in the context of a horrendous death and illness toll in January/February. It's now April. Yes, it was a cautious roadmap - understandable given the history of the virus and some uncertainty about the efficacy of vaccines. That uncertainty has diminished massively, but not completely. As far as I can tell, the government is sticking to the roadmap and restrictions will be eased next week, and more significantly on May 17th and then in June. If the government backtracks on the roadmap without good reason I'll join the complainants, but there's no sign of that yet.
Meanwhile, while the restrictions are a complete pain, they are increasingly less arduous, especially as people interpret them more sensibly. We've started having visitors to the house, because we know infections locally are now very low. The police have not knocked on our door, nor will they. I leave the house several times a day. Next Monday, my daughter has booked a table at a beachfront bar from 2pm - 8pm; we shall visit in shifts of six.
I just wonder if a bit of patience would be wise. We should man the barricades if/when it is clear that conspiracies about extending lockdown and enforcing ID cards are imminent, but not while they are still theoretical risks that I don't actually think will happen.
Yep, more or less my position too. So long as I'm right about domestic vaccine passports being an idea destined to remain that way, I think things are looking ok. And next Monday is for me very important. I hope it will make a big difference and I think it will.
They already backslid on masks for pupils in the classroom. A perverse and appalling policy to begin with. I don’t trust them at all at this point.
Gove and Hancock appear to be instinctively big state. Carrie is no doubt traumatised by Bozza’s earlier hospitalisation and is giving overly cautious advice. Sunak feels chastened into silence after his earlier calls of liberalism and self responsibility.
And the whole lot of them have been in a bunker for a year. It’s warped their risk tolerance and decision making capacity.
Meanwhile the instruments of the state are dumb and they will use whatever blunt tool they have at their disposal. Which in the case of the Uk is now an absurdly over-sized viral testing capacity and digital surveillance.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
I think there's another suggestion, similar to your #2.
4.. The vaccine is extremely effective, but the government is terrified themselves because of all the criticism about ignoring SAGE before the second wave and the forthcoming Enquiry into Covid. They're scared that they'll be killed if there is another wave and so are acting with an overabundance of caution.
They're scared of their own shadow. It is losing my respect to be frank.
My guess is that is right.
There is a disconnect between what is right for the individuals and what is right for the country.
And I can sympathise. If Boris opens up too fast and another 100k people die that will weigh on his conscience (titter ye not) for the rest of his life
As I said your mail last night was powerful and typical of many on here - well done for coming out and saying it.
And all I can say is that I really do think we are coming to the end of this. Any post-June 21st restrictions will be self-implemented (eg. Nick Palmer need not go to the no vaxport pub and choose one where the landlord has decided to use them: eg none). Same with masks and social distancing.
With the bulk of at risk groups vaccinated we can begin to resume normality. And if the PM decides otherwise because caution then he will have an almighty fight on his hands with his own party and, god help us I hope, with the opposition.
Thanks, I appreciate your kind words.
Rationally I know you're probably right. I've got two parallel thought processes going on in my head - the rational one where I can look at the numbers and come to the same conclusions as you and the irrational one where I feel utterly powerless and threatened by every media pronouncement or model. I pride myself on being able to think rationally and logically (it's pretty important for my job), but this irrational worrying is another symptom of lockdown.
The worrying has proved time and time again to not be irrational.
I'd say this statement is flat out wrong. It's a rewrite of history unless you and I have been living through different pandemics. Again and again during this whole wretched episode the virus has been underestimated and that worry is the one which has consistently been proved right. The worry about the government imposing lockdowns too early or without justification has tended to be proved wrong. And the current outbreak of worry about the roadmap being reneged on, or vaccine passports coming in, or long term compulsory masks and distancing etc, all of that remains at this point just that - people worrying. I don't criticize people for this (unless they succumb to silly conspiracy theory type stuff about the Surveillance State, and even then only gently, since it can be healthy to worry about such things), but as of now the evidence is not imo there to justify it.
If the government were genuinely worried about a mutant strain of the virus impervious to existing vaccines, it would have taken effective action to limit who can enter the country and imposed strict and effective quarantine arrangements on those few let in.
It has done neither of these things and continues not to. Instead all of its efforts are focused on controlling what vaccinated people can do here. It is nonsense on stilts.
So either the government consists of utter morons. Or it has another agenda.
Or both.
Madcap conspirary theories abounded a year ago and I didn't believe a word they said. Now less sure because so far the hypothesis fits the observations ...
75-80 years on from unspeakable medical experiments and why are we vaccinating children with a product whose safety testing only ends in 2023 or -24? Healthy children don't die of this virus any more often than they die from lightning strikes.
Children are being submitted for experiments by parents who themselves are not well informed enough to know that the products are unlicensed. They have *emergency use authorisation* ... which they wouldn't have got without corruption at WHO and CDC level. See Dr Pierre Kory's testimony. One only has to look to find medics. speaking out and suggesting that some of their colleagues would do so but fear for their jobs.
I have no patience for this. Nothing you say is true.
Several times you've popped up over the last few days to parrot lockdownsceptic or antivax lines. @Andy_Cooke tirelessly refuted your claims, but you vanished each time. I think, now that you've been shown to be a serial liar, that the burden of proof is on you to back up your statements with actual *evidence*, or keep your conspiracies to yourself.
I don't want to harp on the weather, again, but the pathetic fallacy does seem quite forceful at the moment
We are Narnia, frozen in an endless winter of lockdown. Last week it felt like the thaw was with us - but no. It was a false dawn. Birds peck forlornly at the ice, once more. Tumnus stares at nothing
It's lovely in Manchester. Bright blue skies, a bit of warmth. It did snow yesterday, mind. But only for half an hour. I'd say this Spring feels sunnier and perhaps slightly warmer than average.
5C and partly cloudy in London. If you get out of the wind and turn your sobbing face to the sun, you can feel that it is spring - indeed nearly halfway through spring. If a cloud passes over or you find yourself in shadow, a wintry cold bites deep. Quite odd. Feels like fine weather at high altitude: Bolivia, say. Where the sun can burn you but you don't need a fridge, just store your beers in the frigid shadows (that is literally what they do)
Anyway, no need for despair, the clocks go back again in just 11 weeks, and we head back into winter
Wow. "0.5% of the country" when we've signed for 17 million. So, 8.5 million people is 0.5% of the population. [does arithmetic] Does - does he think that 1.7 billion people live in the UK?
Another serious case of BDS I'm afraid.
No, a journalist with a calculator problem. The problem is that the journalist possess a calculator.
Or perhaps illegal immigration has really got out of control?
On the downside, house prices will go up a bit. On the upside I now property, so my personal wealth will go up. On the upside even the most aggressive open borders type will shut up now.
Presumably, this means that competition for low end jobs will drive prices down a bit. I look forward to getting my place painted for £1.37....
Getting a table at the pub with a 2500% population increase is going to be a bit of a bugger though.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
It's #3. The only explanation which makes sense to me. The fact that they were making plans for these ID cards last December even as they were telling us to go out and enjoy Xmas tells me that these plans are simply using health as a pretext to extort control and power over us.
I simply will not do-operate with any of this rubbish. I am going to live my life as a free woman capable of making my own judgments not as some cowering imbecile asking permission to go out of my front door.
Why doesn't my more prosaic explanation also make sense to you? Latest expression as per my post at 10.08.
Is this not more likely than that they are planning to bring in an oppressive nationwide high-tech ID and tracking regime by the back door, using Covid as an excuse?
Two reasons.
1) I don't trust the government. 2) The evidence which is coming out about the amount of effort which has already been put into developing ID cards.
No argument with (1). Indeed I'm saying they are being deceptive in pretending there's a serious chance of doing most of the the stuff they say they are considering. (2) I'll pass on. Except to say they put a lot of effort into track and trace too, didn't they? Incompetence eats effort for breakfast.
And are they "morons" (as per your other post)? Yep, but not politically. Far from it.
But ok, so we'll see. My prediction is it's mainly all talk (being aired and sponsored for the reasons I set out) and that post June 21 and the end stage domestic reopening, we will be close enough to normality as to fairly and accurately describe it that way. And crucially it will feel normal. There will be no proving of covid status in order to go about a full and normal daily life in this country.
If I'm wrong I'll bake a large humble pie and send you a piece.
Cookie's five tests of normality: Will we have moved to the stage where we don't have to wear masks in shops/leisure settings/public transport? Will we still have regular government advertising about coronavirus? Will we be able to have parties (e.g. 50 people in a house)? Will we be able to buy a drink at a bar in a pub, rather than wait at a table? Will we be able to arrive at a cafe without having to give our contact details?
I'm not trying to make a point here - I'm genuinely interested in what you think? My guesses are that we will largely fail them all. But very happy to hear from more optimistic posters.
By mid summer -
1. Certain pass. 2. Probable fail. 3. Certain pass. 4. Certain pass. 5. 50/50.
Thanks, yes, I meant by mid-Summer. That's not *normal* but is considerably more normal than I'm expecting! So I'll be pleasantly surprised if we make it there.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Covid is not, yet, a minuscule risk. Absolutely not. Smaller, shrinking, but not minuscule.
Sorry but it is, deaths are below average now. We have negative excess deaths.
There is no excuse not to be at Stage 3 already, July 2020 restrictions. The vulnerable have been vaccinated, deaths are below average, R has collapsed and we are past the point of share of people vaccinated that Israel was at when they lifted restrictions.
I'm as frustrated as anyone, but the logic that right now, with current restrictions, we have negative excess deaths means that we can get rid of all restrictions right now doesn't hold up. Last August, we had negative excess deaths. The unlocking we did was cautious and limited and still saw an increase. Should we drop all restrictions right now, we won't be at negative excess deaths for long.
Those in Phase 2 of vaccination are at between 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation when sick. There are about 20 million of them yet uninfected and unvaccinated. That's 200,000-400,000 hospitalisations waiting for us; we can't sustain them all in a short period of time. Should we overwhelm the NHS, the death rate becomes significant, even in these.
We have fully vaccinated about 8% of the country, of whom about half have full protection. We've given a single dose to far more, but that doesn't have the full effect (it does more than enough to be very much worth giving it). We've got 300,000-600,000 hospitalisations waiting for us in the 1-dose-vaccinated if we let it rip now.
So, overall, 500,000-1,000,000 hospitalisations if we let it rip fully right now.
You left out the completely un-vaccinated....
But *this*
Yup. But we're rapidly travelling towards a different solution of the equation. If, by the end of April, 15 million have been double dosed, the number in that latter 300,000-600,000 will certainly plunge hugely. R will take yet another smack. By the end of May, we'll have maybe 25-30 million double dosed (and be genuinely at the point where Israel's R took a double-tap to the head), and a decent chance of all over-25s being single-dosed (so we'll be looking at far smaller numbers in maximum hospitalisations of both groups - the double-dosed will be pretty much all of Groups 1-9, and the majority of the under-50s will be single dosed. And R will be cratering.
We just need a bit more patience. We're getting there. It's so incredibly frustrating, but we're rapidly zooming towards it.
Since other people have been sharing what is worrying them, I hope people don't mind if I do the same.
I haven't seen my grandparents in a year and I'm absolutely terrified that I might not ever see them again. I'm lucky enough to still have all my grandparents, my wife has lost all of hers, so I know full well that old people don't live forever. They've been vaccinated but its still illegal to see them until May - there's no guarantee they'll make it until May, I don't want to say it but something could happen at any time and it scares me. I haven't seen any of them since last February and in last couple of decades since returning to live in the UK I'd never gone more than a few weeks without visitng them.
But we won't go to visit them until its legal, my wife won't let me for the same reason that she wouldn't have any drinks at all while pregnant - not expecting anything to go wrong if being sensible, but couldn't live with ourselves if something did and we'd broken the rules/guidance even if it was coincidental. But still . . . its heartbreaking to not know them and to not know if we ever will again, and to lose valuable time of my kids getting to know their great grandparents while they're still with us.
Banning families by law from meeting up indoors while there's no excess deaths is absolutely inhumane and its making me quite emotional sorry. I can't support this, its wrong, wrong, wrong.
But I don't know what to do, this is never something we should have ever had to face.
Necessary visits to people in need has always been allowed AFAIK. And who cares if it isn't. I'd go and I think your wife is wrong.
Philip, the whole bloody country was breaking the law this weekend, me included. No need to be a martyr.
Not up to him, if his wife isn't comfortable breaking the rules.
It’s a sign of how warped our society has become in just one year that you can say this.
The decision rests with Philip and his grandparents, no one else.
You ignore the feelings of your other half do you?
You would be o for that to work in reverse?
I ignore the law when it’s unreasonable. I ignore my other half when she’s being the same. It’s worked so far.
More to the point, how do you figure that not ignoring your other half is evidence of "societal warping"?
Requiring your wife’s permission to visit an ailing grandparent is a warping of our society. I have nothing but pity if you can’t see that.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
I think there's another suggestion, similar to your #2.
4.. The vaccine is extremely effective, but the government is terrified themselves because of all the criticism about ignoring SAGE before the second wave and the forthcoming Enquiry into Covid. They're scared that they'll be killed if there is another wave and so are acting with an overabundance of caution.
They're scared of their own shadow. It is losing my respect to be frank.
My guess is that is right.
There is a disconnect between what is right for the individuals and what is right for the country.
And I can sympathise. If Boris opens up too fast and another 100k people die that will weigh on his conscience (titter ye not) for the rest of his life
It's also a question of just a few weeks now or another lockdown of a few months in the autumn.
The economics of this are much more complicated than such simplistic solutions.
The seriously rich mostly owe their wealth to shareholdings in companies they founded. If they have to sell 3% of their shares every year to pay a nominal tax, how long will it be before they no longer have control of their own company?
The vast majority of wealth isn’t simply liquid cash in the bank, it’s in businesses and investments. A tax on wealth is a tax on business.
If they want to make serious money then tax high incomes, dividends and capital gains - but they won’t do that, because it affects themselves and their donors far too much.
The very well-off in the US are so hugely under-taxed that there's plenty of room to take some dosh off them before behaviour gets distorted in damaging ways. Maybe not Elizabeth Warren-style amounts, but certainly some large sums in total.
Indeed, there are hundreds of loopholes in the US tax system that could be closed - but the donors lobbied hard for them to be introduced in the first place and definitely don’t want them to be closed.
A wealth tax is like a universal basic income - sounds brilliant to many in theory, but let’s see an actual Bill written out that we can scrutinise properly.
I’d propose a 50% tax on political donations over $100 - that would have raised a handful of billion last year!
My view is almost the same but slightly nuanced re: Boris. I think Boris is a metro liberal at heart and his instincts are towards liberty. The same cannot be said, sadly, for many others in his party –the Patels and the rump Red Wallers, who love a bit of authoritarian lock'em and flog'em. The Tory version of the Sandy Rentool Tendency if you will.
Even the Patels and the hanger and floggers only want to lock up other people, not their nice middle-class Tory-voting constituents. So I think you're safe to assume they won't be extending Covid restrictions unnecessarily.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Covid is not, yet, a minuscule risk. Absolutely not. Smaller, shrinking, but not minuscule.
Sorry but it is, deaths are below average now. We have negative excess deaths.
There is no excuse not to be at Stage 3 already, July 2020 restrictions. The vulnerable have been vaccinated, deaths are below average, R has collapsed and we are past the point of share of people vaccinated that Israel was at when they lifted restrictions.
I'm as frustrated as anyone, but the logic that right now, with current restrictions, we have negative excess deaths means that we can get rid of all restrictions right now doesn't hold up. Last August, we had negative excess deaths. The unlocking we did was cautious and limited and still saw an increase. Should we drop all restrictions right now, we won't be at negative excess deaths for long.
Those in Phase 2 of vaccination are at between 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation when sick. There are about 20 million of them yet uninfected and unvaccinated. That's 200,000-400,000 hospitalisations waiting for us; we can't sustain them all in a short period of time. Should we overwhelm the NHS, the death rate becomes significant, even in these.
We have fully vaccinated about 8% of the country, of whom about half have full protection. We've given a single dose to far more, but that doesn't have the full effect (it does more than enough to be very much worth giving it). We've got 300,000-600,000 hospitalisations waiting for us in the 1-dose-vaccinated if we let it rip now.
So, overall, 500,000-1,000,000 hospitalisations if we let it rip fully right now.
I accept your 200-400k figure, but not your 300-600k. Immunity starts building 6 days after 1st shot: 21 days from first shot, hospitalization numbers fall close to zero. So of those on 1st shot, only those less than 3 weeks out would be expected to contribute to hospitalizations significantly, and even within those, those in the 14-21 days out will not contribute much at all. So of those 3m per week doses, week 1 = 30-60k, week 2 = 15-30k, week 3 = 10k, total 55-100k from 1st doses, not 300-600k.
I very much agree with your overall point, living as I do in Maryland which has opened up too quickly. But I think you should use realistic numbers if you want to convince others.
Comedy Dave Keating has a point, here, and this is further proof
He reckons the EU chatterati - pundits, hacks, politicians - all read far too much British media and social media, because English is the common language, and because the British, naturally, use it best: most entertainingly and pointedly. So British talking points on Twitter become EU talking points, and British tabloid headlines antagonise EU leaders and thinkers even though they are aimed at UK leaders and thinkers.
It is extravagantly ironic on many levels. Now we have left we still haunt them, even as they loom over us
We're a bit like Greece in the Roman Empire, though the history is reversed. The Romans were oddly obsessed with the Greeks
You leavers also seem more obsessed with the EU than when you were in.
Witness yesterday's breathless analysis of the seating arrangements at the Erdogan meeting.
I don't want to harp on the weather, again, but the pathetic fallacy does seem quite forceful at the moment
We are Narnia, frozen in an endless winter of lockdown. Last week it felt like the thaw was with us - but no. It was a false dawn. Birds peck forlornly at the ice, once more. Tumnus stares at nothing
It's lovely in Manchester. Bright blue skies, a bit of warmth. It did snow yesterday, mind. But only for half an hour. I'd say this Spring feels sunnier and perhaps slightly warmer than average.
5C and partly cloudy in London. If you get out of the wind and turn your sobbing face to the sun, you can feel that it is spring - indeed nearly halfway through spring. If a cloud passes over or you find yourself in shadow, a wintry cold bites deep. Quite odd. Feels like fine weather at high altitude: Bolivia, say. Where the sun can burn you but you don't need a fridge, just store your beers in the frigid shadows (that is literally what they do)
Anyway, no need for despair, the clocks go back again in just 11 weeks, and we head back into winter
I'm no fan of this government (a gross understatement), but I don't share the doom and gloom of so many on here.
The government set out a roadmap with which most broadly agreed, in the context of a horrendous death and illness toll in January/February. It's now April. Yes, it was a cautious roadmap - understandable given the history of the virus and some uncertainty about the efficacy of vaccines. That uncertainty has diminished massively, but not completely. As far as I can tell, the government is sticking to the roadmap and restrictions will be eased next week, and more significantly on May 17th and then in June. If the government backtracks on the roadmap without good reason I'll join the complainants, but there's no sign of that yet.
Meanwhile, while the restrictions are a complete pain, they are increasingly less arduous, especially as people interpret them more sensibly. We've started having visitors to the house, because we know infections locally are now very low. The police have not knocked on our door, nor will they. I leave the house several times a day. Next Monday, my daughter has booked a table at a beachfront bar from 2pm - 8pm; we shall visit in shifts of six.
I just wonder if a bit of patience would be wise. We should man the barricades if/when it is clear that conspiracies about extending lockdown and enforcing ID cards are imminent, but not while they are still theoretical risks that I don't actually think will happen.
Yes, I'm broadly with you. I think the problem for me is that I don't trust the government, particularly given its predilection for following lumpen opinion over science and principle. Johnson want to be liked, and I don't think that's doing us any favours. If the road map is adhered to (inc international travel 17 May (in conjunction with traffic light system) ) then I'll heave a huge sigh of relief.
My view is almost the same but slightly nuanced re: Boris. I think Boris is a metro liberal at heart and his instincts are towards liberty. The same cannot be said, sadly, for many others in his party –the Patels and the rump Red Wallers, who love a bit of authoritarian lock'em and flog'em. The Tory version of the Sandy Rentool Tendency if you will.
"World’s billionaires have seen their combined wealth soar by $5.1 trillion to $13.1 trillion Forbes reveals as the number of super-rich making the list soars by 660 to 2,755
The ranks of the ultra-wealthy have expanded even in a year when the coronavirus pandemic upended the global economy This year's billionaires are worth a combined $13.1 trillion, up from $8 trillion last year - as the soaring stock market has helped boost investment income Bezos had $177B, cementing his spot as the wealthiest billionaire on the list Tesla CEO Elon Musk jumped into second spot on with $155B, up from 31st The list saw 493 newcomers, including Kim Kardashian"
Yet too many are opposed to an ultra wealth tax (I am talking net assets of £50m+ here). How many trillion would it take for that tiny group to own to change minds on what a fair tax would be?
My opposition to an ultra-wealth tax isn't because I support the current unequal distribution of wealth. I'm opposed on the grounds that it is likely to be counter productive, and the ultra-wealthy will just go elsewhere. The ultra-wealthy didn't get ultra-wealthy by not caring too much about money. If it's going to cost them a chunk of their wealth to reside in the UK, they will live somewhere where this doesn't apply. We will be more equal, as a result, because the ultra-wealthy will no longer be here. But the poor will be no richer, and the exchequer will be considerably poorer.
That is fair enough but I think that can be overcome, particularly if there is a consensus amongst leading Western nations. Even a majority of Americans support a tax on the super elite so it should be do-able. If the billionaires want to take their chances in Russia or China so be it (and they will essentially be paying a form of wealth tax there as well).
Comedy Dave Keating has a point, here, and this is further proof
He reckons the EU chatterati - pundits, hacks, politicians - all read far too much British media and social media, because English is the common language, and because the British, naturally, use it best: most entertainingly and pointedly. So British talking points on Twitter become EU talking points, and British tabloid headlines antagonise EU leaders and thinkers even though they are aimed at UK leaders and thinkers.
It is extravagantly ironic on many levels. Now we have left we still haunt them, even as they loom over us
We're a bit like Greece in the Roman Empire, though the history is reversed. The Romans were oddly obsessed with the Greeks
You leavers also seem more obsessed with the EU than when you were in.
Witness yesterday's breathless analysis of the seating arrangements at the Erdogan meeting.
Breathless analysis? I thought people were just laughing at what an idiot the president of the EU parliament looked like.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
I think there's another suggestion, similar to your #2.
4.. The vaccine is extremely effective, but the government is terrified themselves because of all the criticism about ignoring SAGE before the second wave and the forthcoming Enquiry into Covid. They're scared that they'll be killed if there is another wave and so are acting with an overabundance of caution.
They're scared of their own shadow. It is losing my respect to be frank.
My guess is that is right.
There is a disconnect between what is right for the individuals and what is right for the country.
And I can sympathise. If Boris opens up too fast and another 100k people die that will weigh on his conscience (titter ye not) for the rest of his life
It's also a question of just a few weeks now or another lockdown of a few months in the autumn.
Better to just slow the opening up a bit.
"just slow the opening up a bit"
Can we add that to
"just a few more months"
and
"overabundance of caution" (and its various iterations)?
The economics of this are much more complicated than such simplistic solutions.
The seriously rich mostly owe their wealth to shareholdings in companies they founded. If they have to sell 3% of their shares every year to pay a nominal tax, how long will it be before they no longer have control of their own company?
The vast majority of wealth isn’t simply liquid cash in the bank, it’s in businesses and investments. A tax on wealth is a tax on business.
If they want to make serious money then tax high incomes, dividends and capital gains - but they won’t do that, because it affects themselves and their donors far too much.
The very well-off in the US are so hugely under-taxed that there's plenty of room to take some dosh off them before behaviour gets distorted in damaging ways. Maybe not Elizabeth Warren-style amounts, but certainly some large sums in total.
Indeed, there are hundreds of loopholes in the US tax system that could be closed - but the donors lobbied hard for them to be introduced in the first place and definitely don’t want them to be closed.
A wealth tax is like a universal basic income - sounds brilliant to many in theory, but let’s see an actual Bill written out that we can scrutinise properly.
I’d propose a 50% tax on political donations over $100 - that would have raised a handful of billion last year!
Much of the US system can be explained by the coalition building required to get anything done.
The current US tax system has its origins in ever higher rates to please the redistributive types, with ever more loopholes to please various constituencies and the tax lawyers. The rates stopped going up long ago, but the bullshit they created remains.
When the GOP was not insane, they proposed a flattened tax system. Which would wipe out all the loopholes. Cue howling from all corners. Tax loop holes are another thing where they are "Good for me. Bad when you do it".
My favourite comment was from Bill Clinton - he actually said that it was a bad idea, because it would throw 100Ks of tax lawyers out of work....
Wow. "0.5% of the country" when we've signed for 17 million. So, 8.5 million people is 0.5% of the population. [does arithmetic] Does - does he think that 1.7 billion people live in the UK?
Or that EU approval of the vaccine is equivalent date to the UK starting to put vaccines in arms? EDIT They did actually start using it within the week of approval.
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
No.
I don't want to go to an outdoor pub. I want to visit my grandparents and they aren't healthy enough to be spending time outdoors in the cold. They've had both vaccines but it will still be illegal to visit them in their living room before 17 May. 😠
As I said your mail last night was powerful and typical of many on here - well done for coming out and saying it.
And all I can say is that I really do think we are coming to the end of this. Any post-June 21st restrictions will be self-implemented (eg. Nick Palmer need not go to the no vaxport pub and choose one where the landlord has decided to use them: eg none). Same with masks and social distancing.
With the bulk of at risk groups vaccinated we can begin to resume normality. And if the PM decides otherwise because caution then he will have an almighty fight on his hands with his own party and, god help us I hope, with the opposition.
Thanks, I appreciate your kind words.
Rationally I know you're probably right. I've got two parallel thought processes going on in my head - the rational one where I can look at the numbers and come to the same conclusions as you and the irrational one where I feel utterly powerless and threatened by every media pronouncement or model. I pride myself on being able to think rationally and logically (it's pretty important for my job), but this irrational worrying is another symptom of lockdown.
The worrying has proved time and time again to not be irrational.
I'd say this statement is flat out wrong. It's a rewrite of history unless you and I have been living through different pandemics. Again and again during this whole wretched episode the virus has been underestimated and that worry is the one which has consistently been proved right. The worry about the government imposing lockdowns too early or without justification has tended to be proved wrong. And the current outbreak of worry about the roadmap being reneged on, or vaccine passports coming in, or long term compulsory masks and distancing etc, all of that remains at this point just that - people worrying. I don't criticize people for this (unless they succumb to silly conspiracy theory type stuff about the Surveillance State, and even then only gently, since it can be healthy to worry about such things), but as of now the evidence is not imo there to justify it.
If the government were genuinely worried about a mutant strain of the virus impervious to existing vaccines, it would have taken effective action to limit who can enter the country and imposed strict and effective quarantine arrangements on those few let in.
It has done neither of these things and continues not to. Instead all of its efforts are focused on controlling what vaccinated people can do here. It is nonsense on stilts.
So either the government consists of utter morons. Or it has another agenda.
Or both.
Madcap conspirary theories abounded a year ago and I didn't believe a word they said. Now less sure because so far the hypothesis fits the observations ...
75-80 years on from unspeakable medical experiments and why are we vaccinating children with a product whose safety testing only ends in 2023 or -24? Healthy children don't die of this virus any more often than they die from lightning strikes.
Children are being submitted for experiments by parents who themselves are not well informed enough to know that the products are unlicensed. They have *emergency use authorisation* ... which they wouldn't have got without corruption at WHO and CDC level. See Dr Pierre Kory's testimony. One only has to look to find medics. speaking out and suggesting that some of their colleagues would do so but fear for their jobs.
More made-up crap shared breathlessly by the credulous and ignorant.
The risks of hospitalisation and long covid especially are far far higher than of a lightning strike.
And, for information for those reading, what the conspiracy theorists are referring to is that the official study period on some of the datastreams remains open for a prolonged period. The trial protocols have a number of dates/timelines associated with them.
The longest timeline is published as the final study date - any data collected after that date is invalid. This date is established based on the estimated time it would take to collect enough "events" (ie people infected in total over both arms) to make a statistical analysis.
That is - if you have a total of four or five people infected, sheer random chance will dominate the proceeds; if you wait for 100+, you can be far more certain it's down to the vaccine effects.
(In every case, the primary completion date of the efficacy datastreams was far overestimated; the silver lining of the pandemic was that enough events happened quickly enough that a statistically solid efficacy calculation could be made far earlier than expected. These data streams were completed far earlier than the originally published target dates)
In addition, there are something like a couple of dozen other data streams to look at. In a couple of these, they look at things like the way that antibody levels vary in vaccinated people over a period of up to two years, and the number infected up to two years (to get data on whether or not and to what degree immunity protection wears off in time). These are what some antivaxxers point to as "Hey, the study's not over yet" while trying to hint that it's the safety data that's not yet in. Because two years isn't up yet.
In reality, almost all the safety data is in by 1 month after the final dose. They do run longer-term data streams on the safety data - up to 6 months after the final dose (for each of the vaccines in use in the UK, that final safety data stream has concluded). These have, unsurprisingly, been completed.
However, because the "study the variance over two years to see if booster shots will be needed" datastream isn't complete, the study remains officially open, and the conspiracy theorists try to insinuate that the safety trial elements are still incomplete and the vaccine is "experimental"
(Yes, I was sad enough to go and read the trial protocols. I doubt rural_voter did; simply regurgitating the misunderstood garbage spouted by the conspiracy theorists and taken as true by those who felt it agreed with their delusions)
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
I think there's another suggestion, similar to your #2.
4.. The vaccine is extremely effective, but the government is terrified themselves because of all the criticism about ignoring SAGE before the second wave and the forthcoming Enquiry into Covid. They're scared that they'll be killed if there is another wave and so are acting with an overabundance of caution.
They're scared of their own shadow. It is losing my respect to be frank.
My guess is that is right.
There is a disconnect between what is right for the individuals and what is right for the country.
And I can sympathise. If Boris opens up too fast and another 100k people die that will weigh on his conscience (titter ye not) for the rest of his life
The problem with this is the "how many is too many" argument i.e. we're back to zero-covid being an end point, which will never be reached. How many die of flu each year? Why is that number acceptable? The government needs to change the narrative. Unfortunately they have terrified people so much it's not possible for them to do that. They are still running these ludicrous radio adds designed to scare people witless.
Comedy Dave Keating has a point, here, and this is further proof
He reckons the EU chatterati - pundits, hacks, politicians - all read far too much British media and social media, because English is the common language, and because the British, naturally, use it best: most entertainingly and pointedly. So British talking points on Twitter become EU talking points, and British tabloid headlines antagonise EU leaders and thinkers even though they are aimed at UK leaders and thinkers.
It is extravagantly ironic on many levels. Now we have left we still haunt them, even as they loom over us
We're a bit like Greece in the Roman Empire, though the history is reversed. The Romans were oddly obsessed with the Greeks
You leavers also seem more obsessed with the EU than when you were in.
Witness yesterday's breathless analysis of the seating arrangements at the Erdogan meeting.
For sure. I said "they loom over us". But this is what you might expect when they are an entire continent of 450m and we are an offshore island of 68m. We are a bigger Canada, they are a less puissant USA
However, what is surprising is how they obsess about us. I wonder if this well endure after Covid. If my theory, stolen from Dave Keating, is correct, then it will
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Covid is not, yet, a minuscule risk. Absolutely not. Smaller, shrinking, but not minuscule.
Sorry but it is, deaths are below average now. We have negative excess deaths.
There is no excuse not to be at Stage 3 already, July 2020 restrictions. The vulnerable have been vaccinated, deaths are below average, R has collapsed and we are past the point of share of people vaccinated that Israel was at when they lifted restrictions.
I'm as frustrated as anyone, but the logic that right now, with current restrictions, we have negative excess deaths means that we can get rid of all restrictions right now doesn't hold up. Last August, we had negative excess deaths. The unlocking we did was cautious and limited and still saw an increase. Should we drop all restrictions right now, we won't be at negative excess deaths for long.
Those in Phase 2 of vaccination are at between 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation when sick. There are about 20 million of them yet uninfected and unvaccinated. That's 200,000-400,000 hospitalisations waiting for us; we can't sustain them all in a short period of time. Should we overwhelm the NHS, the death rate becomes significant, even in these.
We have fully vaccinated about 8% of the country, of whom about half have full protection. We've given a single dose to far more, but that doesn't have the full effect (it does more than enough to be very much worth giving it). We've got 300,000-600,000 hospitalisations waiting for us in the 1-dose-vaccinated if we let it rip now.
So, overall, 500,000-1,000,000 hospitalisations if we let it rip fully right now.
I accept your 200-400k figure, but not your 300-600k. Immunity starts building 6 days after 1st shot: 21 days from first shot, hospitalization numbers fall close to zero. So of those on 1st shot, only those less than 3 weeks out would be expected to contribute to hospitalizations significantly, and even within those, those in the 14-21 days out will not contribute much at all. So of those 3m per week doses, week 1 = 30-60k, week 2 = 15-30k, week 3 = 10k, total 55-100k from 1st doses, not 300-600k.
I very much agree with your overall point, living as I do in Maryland which has opened up too quickly. But I think you should use realistic numbers if you want to convince others.
I was using the 85% reduction from the SIREN study for protection built from week 5 onwards.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
I think there's another suggestion, similar to your #2.
4.. The vaccine is extremely effective, but the government is terrified themselves because of all the criticism about ignoring SAGE before the second wave and the forthcoming Enquiry into Covid. They're scared that they'll be killed if there is another wave and so are acting with an overabundance of caution.
They're scared of their own shadow. It is losing my respect to be frank.
My guess is that is right.
There is a disconnect between what is right for the individuals and what is right for the country.
And I can sympathise. If Boris opens up too fast and another 100k people die that will weigh on his conscience (titter ye not) for the rest of his life
It's also a question of just a few weeks now or another lockdown of a few months in the autumn.
Better to just slow the opening up a bit.
"just slow the opening up a bit"
Can we add that to
"just a few more months"
and
"overabundance of caution" (and its various iterations)?
ta
Wonder what the “pilots” of all the UAPs are making of all this? Anyway I digress and I know that talk upsets this forum.
Comedy Dave Keating has a point, here, and this is further proof
He reckons the EU chatterati - pundits, hacks, politicians - all read far too much British media and social media, because English is the common language, and because the British, naturally, use it best: most entertainingly and pointedly. So British talking points on Twitter become EU talking points, and British tabloid headlines antagonise EU leaders and thinkers even though they are aimed at UK leaders and thinkers.
It is extravagantly ironic on many levels. Now we have left we still haunt them, even as they loom over us
We're a bit like Greece in the Roman Empire, though the history is reversed. The Romans were oddly obsessed with the Greeks
You leavers also seem more obsessed with the EU than when you were in.
Witness yesterday's breathless analysis of the seating arrangements at the Erdogan meeting.
If it's true that VdL reads the Daily Mail.... Well, if proved, that diminishes her even more....
Interesting that there's now calls for Moderna to be reserved for under 50s, I expect the same to be the for Novavax and the remaining 13m Pfizer doses once the second jabs are done for the last one. Over 50s will get the AZ vaccine first and second and I think the government is going to shift to the other three for under 50s. Moderna is 8.5m people's worth in Q2, Pfizer we have 6.5m people's worth in Q2 and Novavax we'll get around 3m people's worth per month from May onwards.
Now that there are so few over 50s left it makes sense to reserve the incoming AZ doses for them as most are now going to be people who previously refused.
I asked this below but as you are the most likely person to know I will ask again
Is Moderna being used for vaccinations in the EU at the moment or are they just using Pfizer and AZ?
Yes, they are. Moderna started ramping in Switzerland in February with fairly low volume.
Seems improbable to me that almost a full third of SNP constituency voters would vote for someone else on the list, indeed, that 15% is all of Grn and Alba support, so some of the SNP's constituency vote is going Unionist on the list? I don't think so.
Comedy Dave Keating has a point, here, and this is further proof
He reckons the EU chatterati - pundits, hacks, politicians - all read far too much British media and social media, because English is the common language, and because the British, naturally, use it best: most entertainingly and pointedly. So British talking points on Twitter become EU talking points, and British tabloid headlines antagonise EU leaders and thinkers even though they are aimed at UK leaders and thinkers.
It is extravagantly ironic on many levels. Now we have left we still haunt them, even as they loom over us
We're a bit like Greece in the Roman Empire, though the history is reversed. The Romans were oddly obsessed with the Greeks
You leavers also seem more obsessed with the EU than when you were in.
Witness yesterday's breathless analysis of the seating arrangements at the Erdogan meeting.
Breathless analysis? I thought people were just laughing at what an idiot the president of the EU parliament looked like.
The little video of the Erdogan Seating Gaffe was fascinating on several levels, because it spoke to Erdogan's obvious misogyny, AND the male chauvinism of Michel, AND the pointless complexity of top EU roles (who is president of what, she is a senior president to him or is it the other way, etc etc)
As for breathless analysis, if you follow the various Twitter threads it came from all quarters, the EU, the UK, and Turkey - and other places - tho most of it was done in English (often bad English from non English natives)
Comedy Dave Keating has a point, here, and this is further proof
He reckons the EU chatterati - pundits, hacks, politicians - all read far too much British media and social media, because English is the common language, and because the British, naturally, use it best: most entertainingly and pointedly. So British talking points on Twitter become EU talking points, and British tabloid headlines antagonise EU leaders and thinkers even though they are aimed at UK leaders and thinkers.
It is extravagantly ironic on many levels. Now we have left we still haunt them, even as they loom over us
We're a bit like Greece in the Roman Empire, though the history is reversed. The Romans were oddly obsessed with the Greeks
So speaks a man who is clearly very unhealthily obsessed with the EU (particularly anything selectively unflattering), or is it just all foreigners? Who knows?!
That sounds like the SNP trying to stitch up the government.
They’ll play along for a bit on something developed across the four governments, then about-turn at the last minute to roll their own, distinctly Scottish version while voting against the UK scheme.
Interesting that there's now calls for Moderna to be reserved for under 50s, I expect the same to be the for Novavax and the remaining 13m Pfizer doses once the second jabs are done for the last one. Over 50s will get the AZ vaccine first and second and I think the government is going to shift to the other three for under 50s. Moderna is 8.5m people's worth in Q2, Pfizer we have 6.5m people's worth in Q2 and Novavax we'll get around 3m people's worth per month from May onwards.
Now that there are so few over 50s left it makes sense to reserve the incoming AZ doses for them as most are now going to be people who previously refused.
I asked this below but as you are the most likely person to know I will ask again
Is Moderna being used for vaccinations in the EU at the moment or are they just using Pfizer and AZ?
Having had my cruise for May 17th cancelled I have now been able to rebook for August. It will be a mystery tour leaving Southampton and returning in 7 days. The captain will decide where we go depending on the weather- in search of the sun!
Enjoy your cruise up the Lincolnshire coast - Skeggy , Mablethorpe
That sounds like the SNP trying to stitch up the government.
They’ll play along for a bit on something developed across the four governments, then about-turn at the last minute to roll their own, distinctly Scottish version while voting against the UK scheme.
Their politics is childish in the extreme, but then, that is nationalism for you!
Wow. "0.5% of the country" when we've signed for 17 million. So, 8.5 million people is 0.5% of the population. [does arithmetic] Does - does he think that 1.7 billion people live in the UK?
Or that EU approval of the vaccine is equivalent date to the UK starting to put vaccines in arms? EDIT They did actually start using it within the week of approval.
He did compare the 18% that the EU had signed up to with what the UK had secured. He was trying to pull a fast bait-and-switch of the total the EU signed for with the total in the first delivery to the UK only rather than the total the UK signed for.
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
Yes, next week is a biggee. I have skiing booked at Snowdome and three pub bookings. I'm feeling grumpy like everyone else this morning but I don't count as I've been grumpy for months.
Actually "grumpy" is not the word. "Scared and trapped" is closer. Waking up in a panic is a regular theme.
Let's see how things feel a week from now. For me the opening ups next Monday, whilst far from the end of the affair, are a really meaningful step.
Sharing a sense of despair and powerlessness this morning with Maffew, Leon, alex, Mortimer, Black Rock and others (you know who you are) ... "we few, we happy few, we band of brothers" ... maybe, just maybe a small resistance movement is beginning to stir. My sense of despair comes from a frustration that the government knows something I don't.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ... 3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
Covid is not, yet, a minuscule risk. Absolutely not. Smaller, shrinking, but not minuscule.
Sorry but it is, deaths are below average now. We have negative excess deaths.
There is no excuse not to be at Stage 3 already, July 2020 restrictions. The vulnerable have been vaccinated, deaths are below average, R has collapsed and we are past the point of share of people vaccinated that Israel was at when they lifted restrictions.
I'm as frustrated as anyone, but the logic that right now, with current restrictions, we have negative excess deaths means that we can get rid of all restrictions right now doesn't hold up. Last August, we had negative excess deaths. The unlocking we did was cautious and limited and still saw an increase. Should we drop all restrictions right now, we won't be at negative excess deaths for long.
Those in Phase 2 of vaccination are at between 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation when sick. There are about 20 million of them yet uninfected and unvaccinated. That's 200,000-400,000 hospitalisations waiting for us; we can't sustain them all in a short period of time. Should we overwhelm the NHS, the death rate becomes significant, even in these.
We have fully vaccinated about 8% of the country, of whom about half have full protection. We've given a single dose to far more, but that doesn't have the full effect (it does more than enough to be very much worth giving it). We've got 300,000-600,000 hospitalisations waiting for us in the 1-dose-vaccinated if we let it rip now.
So, overall, 500,000-1,000,000 hospitalisations if we let it rip fully right now.
I accept your 200-400k figure, but not your 300-600k. Immunity starts building 6 days after 1st shot: 21 days from first shot, hospitalization numbers fall close to zero. So of those on 1st shot, only those less than 3 weeks out would be expected to contribute to hospitalizations significantly, and even within those, those in the 14-21 days out will not contribute much at all. So of those 3m per week doses, week 1 = 30-60k, week 2 = 15-30k, week 3 = 10k, total 55-100k from 1st doses, not 300-600k.
I very much agree with your overall point, living as I do in Maryland which has opened up too quickly. But I think you should use realistic numbers if you want to convince others.
I was using the 85% reduction from the SIREN study for protection built from week 5 onwards.
85% reduction in what? What I have seen of the study is that it screens for antibodies, which is only part of the immune response, and that the figures cited are for reductions in infections, not hospitalizations.
Real world data from the UK, US and Israel (and even France and Belgium) point to hospitalizations and serious infection being drastically reduced (i.e. by close to 100%) 21 days after first vaccination of any of AZN, Pfizer or Moderna.
638 deaths in Poland. The 2nd highest of the entire pandemic, for them. The biggest was back in December 2020 (and only a smidgen higher). Of course it may be partly an Easter Effect but still. Ooof.
That is the equivalent to 1000+ in the UK, they are heading for a UK-style 2nd wave
That does put into perspective just how transient the yes vote is.
They're quoting 52% Yes, 48% No [haven't I seen those figures somewhere else?], which I wouldn't have thought was anywhere near enough for the SNP to risk a referendum.
But I think you are right about the transience of the Yes vote (or rather, the Yes opinion-poll figure). It does seem to vary according to very short-term factors which actually have nothing whatsoever to do with independence. It wouldn't be surprising if respondents used it as a proxy to express dissatisfaction with the UK government, or conversely with the SNP government.
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
No.
I don't want to go to an outdoor pub. I want to visit my grandparents and they aren't healthy enough to be spending time outdoors in the cold. They've had both vaccines but it will still be illegal to visit them in their living room before 17 May. 😠
I did say "bend a few (unpoliced) rules".
Visiting others indoors isn't "bending the rules" it is "breaking the law".
If the only solution is to break the law, then the law is an ass.
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
Yes, next week is a biggee. I have skiing booked at Snowdome and three pub bookings. I'm feeling grumpy like everyone else this morning but I don't count as I've been grumpy for months.
Actually "grumpy" is not the word. "Scared and trapped" is closer. Waking up in a panic is a regular theme.
Let's see how things feel a week from now. For me the opening ups next Monday, whilst far from the end of the affair, are a really meaningful step.
@ Stocky. 'Deep funk' is how I described my condition to a work colleague yesterday. My productivity is in the waste basket.
Wow. "0.5% of the country" when we've signed for 17 million. So, 8.5 million people is 0.5% of the population. [does arithmetic] Does - does he think that 1.7 billion people live in the UK?
Or that EU approval of the vaccine is equivalent date to the UK starting to put vaccines in arms? EDIT They did actually start using it within the week of approval.
He did compare the 18% that the EU had signed up to with what the UK had secured. He was trying to pull a fast bait-and-switch of the total the EU signed for with the total in the first delivery to the UK only rather than the total the UK signed for.
That sounds like the SNP trying to stitch up the government.
They’ll play along for a bit on something developed across the four governments, then about-turn at the last minute to roll their own, distinctly Scottish version while voting against the UK scheme.
Lol, the 'bloody SNP may vote for HMG's illiberal vaccine passport' whine didn't last long!
"World’s billionaires have seen their combined wealth soar by $5.1 trillion to $13.1 trillion Forbes reveals as the number of super-rich making the list soars by 660 to 2,755
The ranks of the ultra-wealthy have expanded even in a year when the coronavirus pandemic upended the global economy This year's billionaires are worth a combined $13.1 trillion, up from $8 trillion last year - as the soaring stock market has helped boost investment income Bezos had $177B, cementing his spot as the wealthiest billionaire on the list Tesla CEO Elon Musk jumped into second spot on with $155B, up from 31st The list saw 493 newcomers, including Kim Kardashian"
Yet too many are opposed to an ultra wealth tax (I am talking net assets of £50m+ here). How many trillion would it take for that tiny group to own to change minds on what a fair tax would be?
My opposition to an ultra-wealth tax isn't because I support the current unequal distribution of wealth. I'm opposed on the grounds that it is likely to be counter productive, and the ultra-wealthy will just go elsewhere. The ultra-wealthy didn't get ultra-wealthy by not caring too much about money. If it's going to cost them a chunk of their wealth to reside in the UK, they will live somewhere where this doesn't apply. We will be more equal, as a result, because the ultra-wealthy will no longer be here. But the poor will be no richer, and the exchequer will be considerably poorer.
That is fair enough but I think that can be overcome, particularly if there is a consensus amongst leading Western nations. Even a majority of Americans support a tax on the super elite so it should be do-able. If the billionaires want to take their chances in Russia or China so be it (and they will essentially be paying a form of wealth tax there as well).
Yep. An idea whose time is fast coming. TINA.
I can't see the USA ever signing up to it. They are ideologically opposed in principle as a society, whatever opinion polls say. Freedom to become massively rich and not have it pilfered by government is a bit like freedom to own a gun. They are perpetually worried by the ratchet effect and evidence around the world supports this.
That does put into perspective just how transient the yes vote is.
They're quoting 52% Yes, 48% No [haven't I seen those figures somewhere else?], which I wouldn't have thought was anywhere near enough for the SNP to risk a referendum.
But I think you are right about the transience of the Yes vote (or rather, the Yes opinion-poll figure). It does seem to vary according to very short-term factors which actually have nothing whatsoever to do with independence. It wouldn't be surprising if respondents used it as a proxy to express dissatisfaction with the UK government, or conversely with the SNP government.
This was the interesting line;
Yes still has a narrow edge, with 52% saying they would vote Yes and 48% No if #indyref2 was held immediately. 11% may still change their minds though - and Yes supporters are more likely than No supporters to say this
That sounds like the SNP trying to stitch up the government.
They’ll play along for a bit on something developed across the four governments, then about-turn at the last minute to roll their own, distinctly Scottish version while voting against the UK scheme.
Lol, the 'bloody SNP may vote for HMG's illiberal vaccine passport' whine didn't last long!
That does put into perspective just how transient the yes vote is.
They're quoting 52% Yes, 48% No [haven't I seen those figures somewhere else?], which I wouldn't have thought was anywhere near enough for the SNP to risk a referendum.
But I think you are right about the transience of the Yes vote (or rather, the Yes opinion-poll figure). It does seem to vary according to very short-term factors which actually have nothing whatsoever to do with independence. It wouldn't be surprising if respondents used it as a proxy to express dissatisfaction with the UK government, or conversely with the SNP government.
Why wouldn't 52% Yes be enough to risk a referendum. Quite frankly 48% from their perspective ought to be enough to risk it.
As the IRA used to say, they need to get lucky once. Not many expected the Brexit referendum to be lost by the Westminster government but it was and we're out now.
If they lose a second referendum that might be the end of the matter (like in Canada), or they can regather and find a new grievance to push and then push for a third - until the Scottish voters decide enough is enough.
638 deaths in Poland. The 2nd highest of the entire pandemic, for them. The biggest was back in December 2020 (and only a smidgen higher). Of course it may be partly an Easter Effect but still. Ooof.
That is the equivalent to 1000+ in the UK, they are heading for a UK-style 2nd wave
I'm no fan of this government (a gross understatement), but I don't share the doom and gloom of so many on here.
The government set out a roadmap with which most broadly agreed, in the context of a horrendous death and illness toll in January/February. It's now April. Yes, it was a cautious roadmap - understandable given the history of the virus and some uncertainty about the efficacy of vaccines. That uncertainty has diminished massively, but not completely. As far as I can tell, the government is sticking to the roadmap and restrictions will be eased next week, and more significantly on May 17th and then in June. If the government backtracks on the roadmap without good reason I'll join the complainants, but there's no sign of that yet.
Meanwhile, while the restrictions are a complete pain, they are increasingly less arduous, especially as people interpret them more sensibly. We've started having visitors to the house, because we know infections locally are now very low. The police have not knocked on our door, nor will they. I leave the house several times a day. Next Monday, my daughter has booked a table at a beachfront bar from 2pm - 8pm; we shall visit in shifts of six.
I just wonder if a bit of patience would be wise. We should man the barricades if/when it is clear that conspiracies about extending lockdown and enforcing ID cards are imminent, but not while they are still theoretical risks that I don't actually think will happen.
Yes, I'm broadly with you. I think the problem for me is that I don't trust the government, particularly given its predilection for following lumpen opinion over science and principle. Johnson want to be liked, and I don't think that's doing us any favours. If the road map is adhered to (inc international travel 17 May (in conjunction with traffic light system) ) then I'll heave a huge sigh of relief.
My view is almost the same but slightly nuanced re: Boris. I think Boris is a metro liberal at heart and his instincts are towards liberty. The same cannot be said, sadly, for many others in his party –the Patels and the rump Red Wallers, who love a bit of authoritarian lock'em and flog'em. The Tory version of the Sandy Rentool Tendency if you will.
I reflect northern working class opinion.
North London handwringers should take note.
By North London hand wringers, presumably you mean "people who live in north London (like Anabobazina) who have a different worldview to me?"
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
Yes, next week is a biggee. I have skiing booked at Snowdome and three pub bookings. I'm feeling grumpy like everyone else this morning but I don't count as I've been grumpy for months.
Actually "grumpy" is not the word. "Scared and trapped" is closer. Waking up in a panic is a regular theme.
Let's see how things feel a week from now. For me the opening ups next Monday, whilst far from the end of the affair, are a really meaningful step.
I think that it became worse when a defined time till the end of this was created.
A lot of people mentioned that June 21st felt a long, long way away....
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
Yes, next week is a biggee. I have skiing booked at Snowdome and three pub bookings. I'm feeling grumpy like everyone else this morning but I don't count as I've been grumpy for months.
Actually "grumpy" is not the word. "Scared and trapped" is closer. Waking up in a panic is a regular theme.
Let's see how things feel a week from now. For me the opening ups next Monday, whilst far from the end of the affair, are a really meaningful step.
@ Stocky. 'Deep funk' is how I described my condition to a work colleague yesterday. My productivity is in the waste basket.
Weirdly, my productivity is waaaaay up
In Lockdown 1 I did barely anything. Not a flint was knapped, or maybe one microlith was shaved
I cooked. I swived, I sat in the sun, I doomscrolled, I ate more chorizo, I went for loooooooong walks in the rolling hills
Lockdown 2 I drank very heavily and got suicidal and again did near-zero work
Lockdown 3 I work every day, quite passionately, much more than I would normally. The flints are shaped, and self-tested. I think this is because it is the only way I can stay sane, as the weather is too horrible for walks and sunbathing, I am growing very bored of cooking, and I am alone. Work saves me. Arbeit macht me frei
As I believe Jackson Pollock said (or was it Ian Fleming?), "Work is not the problem, it's what to do when you're not working, that's the problem"
That does put into perspective just how transient the yes vote is.
They're quoting 52% Yes, 48% No [haven't I seen those figures somewhere else?], which I wouldn't have thought was anywhere near enough for the SNP to risk a referendum.
But I think you are right about the transience of the Yes vote (or rather, the Yes opinion-poll figure). It does seem to vary according to very short-term factors which actually have nothing whatsoever to do with independence. It wouldn't be surprising if respondents used it as a proxy to express dissatisfaction with the UK government, or conversely with the SNP government.
Why wouldn't 52% Yes be enough to risk a referendum. Quite frankly 48% from their perspective ought to be enough to risk it.
As the IRA used to say, they need to get lucky once. Not many expected the Brexit referendum to be lost by the Westminster government but it was and we're out now.
If they lose a second referendum that might be the end of the matter (like in Canada), or they can regather and find a new grievance to push and then push for a third - until the Scottish voters decide enough is enough.
They can't keep holding referendums. They'd need at least a vaguely plausible excuse to run another one after losing the next. This time they can shoot the 'but Brexit has changed everything' line (it's even true, albeit in the wrong direction in terms of the economic viability of independence), but they couldn't use that excuse a second time.
That does put into perspective just how transient the yes vote is.
They're quoting 52% Yes, 48% No [haven't I seen those figures somewhere else?], which I wouldn't have thought was anywhere near enough for the SNP to risk a referendum.
But I think you are right about the transience of the Yes vote (or rather, the Yes opinion-poll figure). It does seem to vary according to very short-term factors which actually have nothing whatsoever to do with independence. It wouldn't be surprising if respondents used it as a proxy to express dissatisfaction with the UK government, or conversely with the SNP government.
Why wouldn't 52% Yes be enough to risk a referendum. Quite frankly 48% from their perspective ought to be enough to risk it.
As the IRA used to say, they need to get lucky once. Not many expected the Brexit referendum to be lost by the Westminster government but it was and we're out now.
If they lose a second referendum that might be the end of the matter (like in Canada), or they can regather and find a new grievance to push and then push for a third - until the Scottish voters decide enough is enough.
Even more reason to refuse a legal indyref2, as Boris will do, as even if Unionists narrowly win it the SNP and Salmond will push for a third referendum shortly after.
Canada only resolved the matter by allowing Quebec's second independence referendum in 1980 a full 15 years after the first in 1980 ie a genuine generation, then even though No only narrowly won with 51% the matter was resolved with devomax for Quebec.
The 2016 EU referendum was of course a full 41 years after the first on the EEC in 1975.
Spain's government of course has never allowed the Catalan nationalist government a legal independence referendum at all, Catalonia remains part of Spain
638 deaths in Poland. The 2nd highest of the entire pandemic, for them. The biggest was back in December 2020 (and only a smidgen higher). Of course it may be partly an Easter Effect but still. Ooof.
That is the equivalent to 1000+ in the UK, they are heading for a UK-style 2nd wave
The bad thing is Polish excess deaths have consistently been about double their reported deaths.
So it is quite possibly equivalent to 2000+ in the UK in actual deaths.
That does put into perspective just how transient the yes vote is.
Has there been any polls done on people that are prepared to vote for the Scottish Nasty Party, but dont actually want independence?
I have long said that SNP votes do not necessarily come from pro independence supporters and that is affirmed within some of my own Scots family in the North East
Furthermore, the poll 52/48 and most probably near to 50/50 indicates that many will support the SNP but not independence
That does put into perspective just how transient the yes vote is.
They're quoting 52% Yes, 48% No [haven't I seen those figures somewhere else?], which I wouldn't have thought was anywhere near enough for the SNP to risk a referendum.
But I think you are right about the transience of the Yes vote (or rather, the Yes opinion-poll figure). It does seem to vary according to very short-term factors which actually have nothing whatsoever to do with independence. It wouldn't be surprising if respondents used it as a proxy to express dissatisfaction with the UK government, or conversely with the SNP government.
Why wouldn't 52% Yes be enough to risk a referendum. Quite frankly 48% from their perspective ought to be enough to risk it.
As the IRA used to say, they need to get lucky once. Not many expected the Brexit referendum to be lost by the Westminster government but it was and we're out now.
If they lose a second referendum that might be the end of the matter (like in Canada), or they can regather and find a new grievance to push and then push for a third - until the Scottish voters decide enough is enough.
Even more reason to refuse a legal indyref2, as Boris will do, as even if Unionists narrowly win it the SNP will push for a third referendum shortly after.
Canada only resolved the matter by allowing Quebec's second independence referendum in 1980 a full 15 years after the first in 1980 ie a genuine generation, then even though No only narrowly won with 51% the matter was resolved with devomax for Quebec
You do know Canada didn't "allow" the second independence referendum, it was held at a time the Quebecois chose for it to be held. So why do you continue to lie about this?
That does put into perspective just how transient the yes vote is.
They're quoting 52% Yes, 48% No [haven't I seen those figures somewhere else?], which I wouldn't have thought was anywhere near enough for the SNP to risk a referendum.
But I think you are right about the transience of the Yes vote (or rather, the Yes opinion-poll figure). It does seem to vary according to very short-term factors which actually have nothing whatsoever to do with independence. It wouldn't be surprising if respondents used it as a proxy to express dissatisfaction with the UK government, or conversely with the SNP government.
Is there really a "risk" to a referendum? Even if they lose, the principle that it was a "once in a generation" vote is shot, so a third referendum becomes a possibility. And the current argument that Brexit is a sufficiently large change in circumstances is a use-it-or-lose-it deal - fail to call a referendum on that basis within a year or two and the opportunity is gone forever. They may as well go for it as far as I can see.
And anyway, losing in 2014 wrought huge returns at Westminster in the following year's election, so it's not as though losing has a history of harming the independence movement.
That does put into perspective just how transient the yes vote is.
They're quoting 52% Yes, 48% No [haven't I seen those figures somewhere else?], which I wouldn't have thought was anywhere near enough for the SNP to risk a referendum.
But I think you are right about the transience of the Yes vote (or rather, the Yes opinion-poll figure). It does seem to vary according to very short-term factors which actually have nothing whatsoever to do with independence. It wouldn't be surprising if respondents used it as a proxy to express dissatisfaction with the UK government, or conversely with the SNP government.
Why wouldn't 52% Yes be enough to risk a referendum. Quite frankly 48% from their perspective ought to be enough to risk it.
As the IRA used to say, they need to get lucky once. Not many expected the Brexit referendum to be lost by the Westminster government but it was and we're out now.
If they lose a second referendum that might be the end of the matter (like in Canada), or they can regather and find a new grievance to push and then push for a third - until the Scottish voters decide enough is enough.
They can't keep holding referendums. They'd need at least a vaguely plausible excuse to run another one after losing the next. This time they can shoot the 'but Brexit has changed everything' line (it's even true, albeit in the wrong direction in terms of the economic viability of independence), but they couldn't use that excuse a second time.
Agreed. 52% is not remotely good enough. The Nat rule of thumb was always - a clear run of 60% YES in the polls - and that is surely still true. Indyref2, if lost, will be the last for 20 years minimum, possibly much longer. And if it is lost the SNP will collapse into warring factions (we can see it already happening)
Nicola needs Boris to refuse, so she can stoke more grievance and aim for that 60%. Her problem is that she now has Vladimir Salmond, with his beer-stained cardigan, breathing down her cleavage and panting for UDI
If you take that, plus bend a few (unpoliced) rules on meeting and mixing, are you not getting close to normality?
Yes, next week is a biggee. I have skiing booked at Snowdome and three pub bookings. I'm feeling grumpy like everyone else this morning but I don't count as I've been grumpy for months.
Actually "grumpy" is not the word. "Scared and trapped" is closer. Waking up in a panic is a regular theme.
Let's see how things feel a week from now. For me the opening ups next Monday, whilst far from the end of the affair, are a really meaningful step.
@ Stocky. 'Deep funk' is how I described my condition to a work colleague yesterday. My productivity is in the waste basket.
Weirdly, my productivity is waaaaay up
In Lockdown 1 I did barely anything. Not a flint was knapped, or maybe one microlith was shaved
I cooked. I swived, I sat in the sun, I doomscrolled, I ate more chorizo, I went for loooooooong walks in the rolling hills
Lockdown 2 I drank very heavily and got suicidal and again did near-zero work
Lockdown 3 I work every day, quite passionately, much more than I would normally. The flints are shaped, and self-tested. I think this is because it is the only way I can stay sane, as the weather is too horrible for walks and sunbathing, I am growing very bored of cooking, and I am alone. Work saves me. Arbeit macht me frei
As I believe Jackson Pollock said (or was it Ian Fleming?), "Work is not the problem, it's what to do when you're not working, that's the problem"
Agree with you on the cooking. Heartily sick and tired of it. And I used to love it.
My work trajectory has been busy in Spring 2020, little work product output in summer 2020 but a lot of useful research, very busy Sept 2020-Feb 2021, useless since.
Comments
https://architectsforsocialhousing.co.uk/2021/03/04/brave-new-world-expanding-the-uk-biosecurity-state-through-the-winter-of-2020-2021/
75-80 years on from unspeakable medical experiments and why are we vaccinating children with a product whose safety testing only ends in 2023 or -24? Healthy children don't die of this virus any more often than they die from lightning strikes.
Children are being submitted for experiments by parents who themselves are not well informed enough to know that the products are unlicensed. They have *emergency use authorisation* ... which they wouldn't have got without corruption at WHO and CDC level. See Dr Pierre Kory's testimony. One only has to look to find medics. speaking out and suggesting that some of their colleagues would do so but fear for their jobs.
In aggregate, according to The Times, the government expects to average 2.7 million jabs/week until the end of July, and 2 million a week after July. I'm not sure why the number would fall, I'd have thought availability after July would be higher. These are 0.5m and 1.9m less per week than was expected back in February, which might explain some of the SAGE caution.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/moderna-covid-vaccines-arrive-to-counter-astrazeneca-slowdown-sl8x655md (£)
The seriously rich mostly owe their wealth to shareholdings in companies they founded. If they have to sell 3% of their shares every year to pay a nominal tax, how long will it be before they no longer have control of their own company?
The vast majority of wealth isn’t simply liquid cash in the bank, it’s in businesses and investments. A tax on wealth is a tax on business.
If they want to make serious money then tax high incomes, dividends and capital gains - but they won’t do that, because it affects themselves and their donors far too much.
Though this is perhaps reflected in the behaviour of parliament, where Labour has broadly supported the government, and the only opposition has come from Conservative back benches.
No idea how much cash they have.
Last August, we had negative excess deaths. The unlocking we did was cautious and limited and still saw an increase.
Should we drop all restrictions right now, we won't be at negative excess deaths for long.
Those in Phase 2 of vaccination are at between 1%-2% chance of hospitalisation when sick.
There are about 20 million of them yet uninfected and unvaccinated. That's 200,000-400,000 hospitalisations waiting for us; we can't sustain them all in a short period of time. Should we overwhelm the NHS, the death rate becomes significant, even in these.
We have fully vaccinated about 8% of the country, of whom about half have full protection. We've given a single dose to far more, but that doesn't have the full effect (it does more than enough to be very much worth giving it). We've got 300,000-600,000 hospitalisations waiting for us in the 1-dose-vaccinated if we let it rip now.
So, overall, 500,000-1,000,000 hospitalisations if we let it rip fully right now.
This is why I switch off from this site when it gets too negative, and why I try - not alway successfully
This also plays into creating a growth mindset, which in turn diminishes the prospects of falling into victimhood.
So, 8.5 million people is 0.5% of the population.
[does arithmetic]
Does - does he think that 1.7 billion people live in the UK?
He reckons the EU chatterati - pundits, hacks, politicians - all read far too much British media and social media, because English is the common language, and because the British, naturally, use it best: most entertainingly and pointedly. So British talking points on Twitter become EU talking points, and British tabloid headlines antagonise EU leaders and thinkers even though they are aimed at UK leaders and thinkers.
It is extravagantly ironic on many levels. Now we have left we still haunt them, even as they loom over us
We're a bit like Greece in the Roman Empire, though the history is reversed. The Romans were oddly obsessed with the Greeks
He owned $55bn in Microsoft, 4.3% of the company.
He had other investment assets of $21bn, $11bn of which were in Berkshire Hathaway.
He only owns a small proportion of Microsoft and has done for many years without it being a problem for him or Microsoft to grow.
He could easily afford a 2-3% wealth tax without coming anywhere near his Microsoft holdings if he so wished.
https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2020/01/28/bill-gates-owns-a-lot-more-apple-stock-than-you-might-think/
But *this*
1. Certain pass.
2. Probable fail.
3. Certain pass.
4. Certain pass.
5. 50/50.
Gove and Hancock appear to be instinctively big state. Carrie is no doubt traumatised by Bozza’s earlier hospitalisation and is giving overly cautious advice. Sunak feels chastened into silence after his earlier calls of liberalism and self responsibility.
And the whole lot of them have been in a bunker for a year. It’s warped their risk tolerance and decision making capacity.
Meanwhile the instruments of the state are dumb and they will use whatever blunt tool they have at their disposal. Which in the case of the Uk is now an absurdly over-sized viral testing capacity and digital surveillance.
There is a disconnect between what is right for the individuals and what is right for the country.
And I can sympathise. If Boris opens up too fast and another 100k people die that will weigh on his conscience (titter ye not) for the rest of his life
Several times you've popped up over the last few days to parrot lockdownsceptic or antivax lines. @Andy_Cooke tirelessly refuted your claims, but you vanished each time. I think, now that you've been shown to be a serial liar, that the burden of proof is on you to back up your statements with actual *evidence*, or keep your conspiracies to yourself.
--AS
Or perhaps illegal immigration has really got out of control?
On the downside, house prices will go up a bit.
On the upside I now property, so my personal wealth will go up.
On the upside even the most aggressive open borders type will shut up now.
Presumably, this means that competition for low end jobs will drive prices down a bit. I look forward to getting my place painted for £1.37....
Getting a table at the pub with a 2500% population increase is going to be a bit of a bugger though.
That's not *normal* but is considerably more normal than I'm expecting! So I'll be pleasantly surprised if we make it there.
But we're rapidly travelling towards a different solution of the equation.
If, by the end of April, 15 million have been double dosed, the number in that latter 300,000-600,000 will certainly plunge hugely.
R will take yet another smack.
By the end of May, we'll have maybe 25-30 million double dosed (and be genuinely at the point where Israel's R took a double-tap to the head), and a decent chance of all over-25s being single-dosed (so we'll be looking at far smaller numbers in maximum hospitalisations of both groups - the double-dosed will be pretty much all of Groups 1-9, and the majority of the under-50s will be single dosed. And R will be cratering.
We just need a bit more patience. We're getting there. It's so incredibly frustrating, but we're rapidly zooming towards it.
Better to just slow the opening up a bit.
A wealth tax is like a universal basic income - sounds brilliant to many in theory, but let’s see an actual Bill written out that we can scrutinise properly.
I’d propose a 50% tax on political donations over $100 - that would have raised a handful of billion last year!
I very much agree with your overall point, living as I do in Maryland which has opened up too quickly. But I think you should use realistic numbers if you want to convince others.
Witness yesterday's breathless analysis of the seating arrangements at the Erdogan meeting.
North London handwringers should take note.
Can we add that to
"just a few more months"
and
"overabundance of caution" (and its various iterations)?
ta
The current US tax system has its origins in ever higher rates to please the redistributive types, with ever more loopholes to please various constituencies and the tax lawyers. The rates stopped going up long ago, but the bullshit they created remains.
When the GOP was not insane, they proposed a flattened tax system. Which would wipe out all the loopholes. Cue howling from all corners. Tax loop holes are another thing where they are "Good for me. Bad when you do it".
My favourite comment was from Bill Clinton - he actually said that it was a bad idea, because it would throw 100Ks of tax lawyers out of work....
The risks of hospitalisation and long covid especially are far far higher than of a lightning strike.
And, for information for those reading, what the conspiracy theorists are referring to is that the official study period on some of the datastreams remains open for a prolonged period. The trial protocols have a number of dates/timelines associated with them.
The longest timeline is published as the final study date - any data collected after that date is invalid. This date is established based on the estimated time it would take to collect enough "events" (ie people infected in total over both arms) to make a statistical analysis.
That is - if you have a total of four or five people infected, sheer random chance will dominate the proceeds; if you wait for 100+, you can be far more certain it's down to the vaccine effects.
(In every case, the primary completion date of the efficacy datastreams was far overestimated; the silver lining of the pandemic was that enough events happened quickly enough that a statistically solid efficacy calculation could be made far earlier than expected. These data streams were completed far earlier than the originally published target dates)
In addition, there are something like a couple of dozen other data streams to look at. In a couple of these, they look at things like the way that antibody levels vary in vaccinated people over a period of up to two years, and the number infected up to two years (to get data on whether or not and to what degree immunity protection wears off in time). These are what some antivaxxers point to as "Hey, the study's not over yet" while trying to hint that it's the safety data that's not yet in. Because two years isn't up yet.
In reality, almost all the safety data is in by 1 month after the final dose. They do run longer-term data streams on the safety data - up to 6 months after the final dose (for each of the vaccines in use in the UK, that final safety data stream has concluded). These have, unsurprisingly, been completed.
However, because the "study the variance over two years to see if booster shots will be needed" datastream isn't complete, the study remains officially open, and the conspiracy theorists try to insinuate that the safety trial elements are still incomplete and the vaccine is "experimental"
(Yes, I was sad enough to go and read the trial protocols. I doubt rural_voter did; simply regurgitating the misunderstood garbage spouted by the conspiracy theorists and taken as true by those who felt it agreed with their delusions)
However, what is surprising is how they obsess about us. I wonder if this well endure after Covid. If my theory, stolen from Dave Keating, is correct, then it will
EDIT - It would explain a lot as well.
Earholes singed to glabrousness, nostrils smoother than a Pornhub lovely.
#bothvotesSNP
As for breathless analysis, if you follow the various Twitter threads it came from all quarters, the EU, the UK, and Turkey - and other places - tho most of it was done in English (often bad English from non English natives)
They’ll play along for a bit on something developed across the four governments, then about-turn at the last minute to roll their own, distinctly Scottish version while voting against the UK scheme.
https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/
He was trying to pull a fast bait-and-switch of the total the EU signed for with the total in the first delivery to the UK only rather than the total the UK signed for.
An odd political game to play
Real world data from the UK, US and Israel (and even France and Belgium) point to hospitalizations and serious infection being drastically reduced (i.e. by close to 100%) 21 days after first vaccination of any of AZN, Pfizer or Moderna.
That is the equivalent to 1000+ in the UK, they are heading for a UK-style 2nd wave
But I think you are right about the transience of the Yes vote (or rather, the Yes opinion-poll figure). It does seem to vary according to very short-term factors which actually have nothing whatsoever to do with independence. It wouldn't be surprising if respondents used it as a proxy to express dissatisfaction with the UK government, or conversely with the SNP government.
If the only solution is to break the law, then the law is an ass.
Yes still has a narrow edge, with 52% saying they would vote Yes and 48% No if #indyref2 was held immediately. 11% may still change their minds though - and Yes supporters are more likely than No supporters to say this
As the IRA used to say, they need to get lucky once. Not many expected the Brexit referendum to be lost by the Westminster government but it was and we're out now.
If they lose a second referendum that might be the end of the matter (like in Canada), or they can regather and find a new grievance to push and then push for a third - until the Scottish voters decide enough is enough.
A lot of people mentioned that June 21st felt a long, long way away....
In Lockdown 1 I did barely anything. Not a flint was knapped, or maybe one microlith was shaved
I cooked. I swived, I sat in the sun, I doomscrolled, I ate more chorizo, I went for loooooooong walks in the rolling hills
Lockdown 2 I drank very heavily and got suicidal and again did near-zero work
Lockdown 3 I work every day, quite passionately, much more than I would normally. The flints are shaped, and self-tested. I think this is because it is the only way I can stay sane, as the weather is too horrible for walks and sunbathing, I am growing very bored of cooking, and I am alone. Work saves me. Arbeit macht me frei
As I believe Jackson Pollock said (or was it Ian Fleming?), "Work is not the problem, it's what to do when you're not working, that's the problem"
Canada only resolved the matter by allowing Quebec's second independence referendum in 1980 a full 15 years after the first in 1980 ie a genuine generation, then even though No only narrowly won with 51% the matter was resolved with devomax for Quebec.
The 2016 EU referendum was of course a full 41 years after the first on the EEC in 1975.
Spain's government of course has never allowed the Catalan nationalist government a legal independence referendum at all, Catalonia remains part of Spain
So it is quite possibly equivalent to 2000+ in the UK in actual deaths.
Tragic.
Furthermore, the poll 52/48 and most probably near to 50/50 indicates that many will support the SNP but not independence
Do you not care for having integrity?
And anyway, losing in 2014 wrought huge returns at Westminster in the following year's election, so it's not as though losing has a history of harming the independence movement.
Nicola needs Boris to refuse, so she can stoke more grievance and aim for that 60%. Her problem is that she now has Vladimir Salmond, with his beer-stained cardigan, breathing down her cleavage and panting for UDI
My work trajectory has been busy in Spring 2020, little work product output in summer 2020 but a lot of useful research, very busy Sept 2020-Feb 2021, useless since.