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Betting opens for the May 6th locals on the BBC’s Projected National Shares for CON and LAB – politi
Betting opens for the May 6th locals on the BBC’s Projected National Shares for CON and LAB – politicalbetting.com
This year’s elections cover those seats last voted on in both 2016 and 2017 because, of course, last year’s elections were postponed because of COVID and so will be substantially larger than usual.
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Although, then again, when we do finally get the stuff there'll be very little of it, and it'll just be used to mop up elderly stragglers anyway. So more waiting. And waiting. And waiting.
Joy.
EDIT: Except, we know that Northern Ireland has already dropped down an age group to the over 45s, anyway. So it's just us who are left endlessly waiting. What a surprise.
I think the distribution of these vaccines must be determined with reference to the Barnett Formula. We're not just expected to pay for the Union, we're expected to die for it as well.
Do Wales and Northern Ireland publish granular data on how many from each age group have been vaccinated, as per PHE? Perhaps Cat 6 is proportionally larger in England than the other home nations and it’s not a grand Celtish conspiracy to kill the English.
Take 2015 for instance, the Lib Dems got 11% on the same day as they got 7.9% in the actual General Election.
Or 2017, the Lib Dems got 18%, when at the time they were polling ~10% - and at the subsequent General Election they again got 7.9%
If doses are being "held back" for 2nd jabs, and the prerequisite minimum number of weeks have lapsed, then they may as well be injected into arms.
There is a point in not doing 2nd jabs yet, if you're using the doses for first instead. But if you're "holding back" the second jabs there's no point stalling on injecting them any longer.
You?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-06/european-institutions-were-targeted-in-a-cyber-attack-last-week
A spokesperson for the commission said that a number of EU bodies “experienced an IT security incident in their IT infrastructure.” The spokesperson said forensic analysis of the incident is still in its initial phase and that it’s too early to provide any conclusive information about the nature of the attack.
“We are working closely with CERT-EU, the Computer Emergency Response Team for all EU institutions, bodies and agencies and the vendor of the affected IT solution,” the spokesperson said. “Thus far, no major information breach was detected.”
Secondary school pupils to keep wearing masks after Easter
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-56651135
These people just do not live in the real world. Masks are not merely horrible to wear, they are frequently used by children as playthings, spreading any virus over their hands and their desks, they make it impossible for both deaf children and deaf teachers to function effectively, and finally they are used for prolonged periods and not washed rather than for brief instances and cleaned/disposed of as they are designed to be. Moreover, they allow disruptive children to talk and mutter with impunity, creating constant disruption which makes it impossible to maintain an atmosphere of calm. Goodness knows how we will manage these exams we’re still being forced to do.
They are also fluent liars. As evidenced by the fact they claimed pupil behaviour was better under Covid (a lie) that their new teaching framework will somehow reduce violence and assaults on staff (another lie) and that only 0.2% of children in school had tested positive for Covid (another lie) and that there would be no exams this year (yet another lie, because they’re still going ahead, it’s just that they are being marked by a different process).
And then they wonder why every teacher - and I mean every teacher - is making plans to quit the profession in the next two years. That’s going to be rather expensive in itself given that those aged 55 or over will simply take retirement.
They are just utter, vile scum.
Half of Kiev and Moscow are here at the moment, as their own cities get closed down and there’s very few places still open for inbound travel. UAE, Maldives and Seychelles at the the moment, that’s pretty much it.
No one in the UK is "winning" a "vaccine race" - there are various distortions and local issues. But all in all, the rollout is remarkably even. I would bet that a similar chart for Spain, for example, would show major disparities between regions, given what I have heard of their rollout.
So it’s not ridiculously far ahead in rolling out moderna, or that surprising, if I’m right.
(Perhaps you and I need to polish up the rose tinted specs).
EZJ back to where it was in June 2019 is just crazy. No one expects it to be flying a normal summer schedule.
But whatever the government, the DfE remains useless. Whoever leads it, they’re still awful.
I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that what we really need is to dismiss large chunks of the Civil Service and start again.
A pair of blue-tits have settled down in our bird box and are building their nest. There's a camera in it, connected to our TV, so every so often we turn off daytime TV and watch for nest-building activity. Although it's only spasmodic, it's often more exciting!
I work in the "real world" and teaching other people's horrible spawn and spending evenings marking barely readable homework is a lot more depressing than anything I do.
And I think you will find we don’t get bank holidays off either. So up your 28 to 36.
Further, just because I’m not in the classroom doesn’t mean I’m not working. The reason I wasn’t on here yesterday is because I was doing a full day’s work of planning and paperwork.
And incidentally, I’ve worked in the private sector and run my own business. So when I say that I’m planning to head back that way, it’s because I know that that is preferable despite all the drawbacks including the lower pay and no pension, than continuing with this.
Nobody who hasn’t been a teacher, which unfortunately includes every civil servant at the DfE (who get one way and another a minimum of eight weeks holiday a year, plus better pay and conditions) knows just how demanding the job is. It’s the equivalent of doing stand up five times a day to an audience of hecklers, with added planning and marking and paperwork thrown in. But to outsiders, it looks like somebody doing a few hours work for a few weeks a year because, like the swan, all the effort is invisible. It’s one reason why so much bullying of teachers goes on, which of course further encourages the negative feedback loop.
And that’s also feeding in to breaking the school system.
As a piece of incompetent, fucked-in-the-head corruption.... no real attempt to hide it either....
https://twitter.com/Jim_Edwards/status/1379701541410639874
Have we discussed this?
Is there a word for this man's behaviour in trying to get a pardon?
That’s one reason why anyone who cares about sound money should be worried about this. That’s a big chunk of money that needs to be found somewhere.
Of course, there is always hope things will change. This is the worst time of year for lots of reasons, and generally things pick up as we go through the summer. But the problem is I don’t think Covid caused a single issue in education that wasn’t already there apart from the lockdown. It didn’t cause the chaos in the exam system, or the corruption in the DfE, or the excessive workload, or the disconnect between what people perceive and the reality. It’s made them all worse, of course, but they were all present before.
What’s bothering me and almost every other teacher (modified in light of @OldKingCole comment) is that therefore, when/if Covid disappears these issues will not disappear with it.
U.S. Bet Big on Covid Vaccine Manufacturer Even as Problems Mounted
The Baltimore plant that recently had to scrap up to 15 million ruined doses had flouted rules and downplayed errors, according to internal audits, ex-employees and clients. Other doses had to be scrapped last year.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/06/us/covid-vaccines-emergent-biosolutions.html
Our vaccination freedom has become a betrayal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/life/vaccination-freedom-has-become-betrayal/
Pearson reviews the 8,000 odd comments to Gove's request for thoughts on the vaxport. And gives the minister both barrels in response. Unrestrained anger at Johnson and co.'s betrayal.
The legal minimum is 28 including bank holidays. Not 28 plus bank holidays. So it is either 20 + 8, or if you're required to work bank holidays (and I have for a long time) then you get 28 over the year in lieu of bank holidays.
The idea its 28 + bank is a strange myth I see from many people. Don't know where that comes from.
Anyway, I have more work to do. Have a good morning.
The disease is horrendous also but the govt responding to the current situation - which means some, all, or none of it may be justified - has broken a large number of people such that when we are told we will be allowed to sit on a park bench at some unspecified time in the future, there are tears of joy and gratitude. Extraordinary.
And it has been clapped (literally) and rewarded in the polls the whole time.
https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1379703727070797824
Not 100% sure I would recommend it right now - probably Schitt's Creek is the better choice under the circs - but it is fantastic drama.
Read the Mitrokhin Archive - the KGB (well, it's predecessors) went from a dynamic start up of a few hundred enthused people to a global giant. At the start they were out spying and murdering their way round the world with wild energy.
They certainly had some organisational clearouts... but this ended after Stalin died....
By the 1970s they had 100ks of employees, and meetings about the biscuits for the meetings to discuss the meeting about the budget for the a guy to ask some local criminals how much they would charge to beat up Rudolf Nureyev.
I did wonder how much the Salisbury Poisonings were part of an attempt to revitalise an organisation that was totally moribund. Some bold manager - "Open plan office, pool table, free soda. Flat organisation. When we want to murder someone - *we* get it done!"
I don't particularly blame the government although the Scottish government has been even more repressive than Westminster. We really don't know how to handle this and it has been a painful learning curve. There are definite trade offs between the risk of the disease and the risks of depression and isolation. I am not sure we got it right.
I can't say I am enthused by Starmer, but the "Mr Thickie, useless Starmer" theme trotted out on here each day is rather tiresome.
I'm curious whether our right-of-centre contributors who aren't active Conservatives think this a good thing. Does Johnson need a ringing vote of confidence, or would it be better to encourage a note of caution?
I think and hope, come June 21st, that we are going to get on and live with this and I'm sure there are enough people in or working with govt to realise that.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1379704961462849536?s=20
The Conservatives are therefore up 4% on the 38% they got in the County council elections last time they were up in 2017, Labour are up 7% on the 27% they got in the last County elections and the LDs are down 11% on the 18% they got then. So on that basis we should see a few Labour gains from the Conservatives in the County elections and both the Conservatives and Labour should make gains from the LDs (albeit the LDs tend to poll a bit better locally than nationally).
When the district council seats up this year were last up in 2016 however the Conservatives only got 30%, so they are now up 12% on that total, Labour are also up 3% on the 31% they got in 2016. The LDs however are again down 8% on their share then. So the district elections in May should see the Tories make some gains from Labour and again the Tories and Labour should make gains from the Liberal Democrats
have a pair of robins nesting in a bush on our patio, just 6 feet from our patio doors and yesterday while one robin was in the nest, the other arrived and hovered for quite some time until they exchanged places.
It was wonderful to observe and to be honest, we had no idea robins could hover.
Ditto my poor mother in her care home. She can't understand why the home (aka the government) will still not allow me to take her for a ride in the countryside in my car. Unbelievable. It's all to do with protecting the government rather than these poor people/families and the children in your example above.
Everyone seems grumpy this morning, so I thought I'd add one more to the pile.
The point being that creative destruction is an important part of organisational lifecycles. The permanent potions of government were structured to prevent it happening.
As a rule of thumb, never believe what a politician says, watch what they do. Despite the overwhelming evidence in the public domain that COVID is now a miniscule risk, they are constantly moving the goalposts - why is that? What sane person would want this nightmare to continue a moment longer than absolutely necessary?
There are 3 possibilities:
1. The vaccine is not nearly as effective as we are led to believe. The plummeting infections, hospitalizations and death rates are actually a result of the lockdown. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
2. The vaccine is extremely effective but the government has terrified the population to such an extent that zero-covid is the de-facto end state. Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
3. The vaccine is extremely effective and the government sees it as a means to introduce an ID card by the back door (to control movement, behaviour, access to services, etc). Therefore, different ongoing restrictions need to be dreamt up for the foreseeable ...
It it's #1, we're screwed. If it's #3, we're screwed (if you enjoy freedom and the British way of life).
I'm clinging to the hope that it's #2 because in that case there is a chance, however slim, that our tiny minority of resistance fighters will grow to the point the government will get the message that enough is enough - we've beaten this thing down to the level of seasonal flu; let's live with it. Change the messaging. Get back to normal (not "more normal" or "something approaching normal" ... just "normal").
My view is we should lift all restrictions now - immediately. I very reluctantly accept that we will have to wait until June 21st for that (but my Tory vote is lost forever - these people are not conservatives). I fear that after June 21st there will still be restrictions in place.
I suspect there is an element creeping in of those running the show not being able to realise/accept/understand that this is ending now with the massive vaccine uptake. Maybe there is some psychological thing going on here? Still determined to fight the war even though it is ending? I dunno. Maybe I am being too harsh, but the vaxport nonsense has got me so angry it is unbelievable.
Not sure what the answer is.
Excellent post by the way HYUFD.
Even if he gets to be Prime Minister, I think he'd hate it, like Theresa May did. It's not like a courtroom, where you have weeks to build your case and get to research it thoroughly beforehand. Being Prime Minister is a job where you have to take a dozen high-stakes decisions a day on the basis of incomplete or missing information. He's temperamentally completely unsuited to that environment.
While, obviously, it is voters, especially Scottish voters, who have made this the case it makes a curious and unequal contest.
It must be to the Conservatives advantage, if only slightly, that they can picture the real choice as between a clear majority government and an uncertain alliance. The idea of a government requiring the support of LD, Green, PC, SNP, Alba(!), DUP (lol) and SF staying away alongside a less than stellar Labour party has shortcomings.
I think the vaccine probably is effective (look at Israel is the cry here) but that the govt is also sh&t-scared that once people are out and about case rates will rise (who cares) and so will hospitalisations and deaths. They are sitting on a precious amount of goodwill atm and are worried about squandering it.
Of course they might squander this either way - a resurgence in deaths or continued restrictive measures.
I think, through gritted teeth, and although I am more with you on dates, I can see the logic for the current timetable.
That said, let's imagine cases, hosps, and deaths do skyrocket after June21st. Will it be possible to impose another lockdown? There may be a resistance movement but look at the polls.
But Boris gave the June 21st date and I think there is now more danger (for him electorally) not to keep to that than to keep to it.
That is a step too far, believe you me