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Labour’s Hiraeth – politicalbetting.com

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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Mortimer said:

    What have people been watching over the holidays? I watched The Maruetanian today (Cumberpatch, Jodie Foster, on Amazon Prime) and can see why it got a Gloden Globe award and 5 Bafta nominations. Based on a true story of a lawyer seeking a fair trial for a Guantansmo detainee - I won't give the ending away, but it preserves an element of ambiguity throughout and isn't jjust a sort of Mr Smith Goes to Court movie. Foster is excellent.

    I've been filling in gaps in my daughter's film history. The Men Who Stare At Goats, and Master & Commander. She liked the former more than the latter.

    Hopefully tomorrow we will play wingspan with chocolate mini eggs.

    Every day is the same and we are slowly going mad. But I am knitting her jumper quickly.
    Love M&C.

    It has actually made me want to read Po'B again!
    M&C is a top film! Shame they never did any sequels - it's not as if there wasn't sufficient source material.
    My wife remarked caustically, "Was this another film Russell Crowe was in that was supposed to be the first of a series?"
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited April 2021
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    That's a big if. Far more likely surely is that a 3rd wave is spread through unvaccinated people mixing closely.
    How when the numbers of unvaccinated are going to be absolutely tiny. The number of people without immunity will be even smaller.

    We're literally talking about a handful of people, a third wave would need to have started a month ago or longer to cause us issues with hospitals being overrun.
    Well it's a bit of a circular argument: we don't need vaccine passports because everyone will meet the criteria to get a vaccine passport.

    Vaccine passports are all about encouraging that high uptake. I think the promise/threat is likely to be enough to get that high take-up so, foreign travel excepted, I don't think they will be compulsory.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    It doesn't. But no-one is suggesting vaccine certificates for that scenario.
    What are they for then?
    For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this.
    The question should be: is there enough unvaccinated vulnerable people to overwhelm the NHS?

    If the answer to that is no, then the measures are not needed and people can take a personal view of risk.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    "China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline
    The country’s leaders see their moment, and are seizing it" {£}

    https://www.economist.com/china/2021/04/03/china-is-betting-that-the-west-is-in-irreversible-decline
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    It doesn't. But no-one is suggesting vaccine certificates for that scenario.
    What are they for then?
    For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this.
    We're heading for 95% uptake of a vaccines that all have 90%+ efficacy. Tbh, one of the reasons I'd think twice about J&J is that it doesn't have the same high efficacy as the other four we'll have.

    The experience in Israel is that the vaccine passport doesn't help push take up. The people who won't take it are people who don't interact with society enough to benefit from what the vaccine passport brings. The same will be true here, conservative Muslims aren't exactly going to go to gigs or festivals. Their lives are going to be exactly the same with or without it.

    So, try again, Richard. Try and defend your same tired establishment supporting narrative as usual.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Mortimer said:

    This will be a massive massive test for Starmer:


    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1378814199162359809/photo/1

    I dare say @Mortimer and liberty-loving colleagues on the right of politics will be glad to see their counterparts on the libertarian left waking up to this. Interesting developments.
    Totally.

    Libertines vs Fearties is clearly the new cleavage in British politics...
    What we really need, of course, is for Labour to crawl off into a quiet corner and perish and to have the Liberal Party back. Which is the great tragedy of this, of course: it's the one thing we're not going to get, because Labour is too weak to do anything of value but too strong to die.
    Too big to fail - Labour 2009-2024 would be an excellent PHD title....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    Duh?
    If there is a third wave, it will be due to vaccine escape.

    Vaxports would have no impact at all...
    France is having a 3rd wave right now. Not because of a vaccine-resistant variant.
    You do realise that only just over 13% of France is vaccinated, right? And that they're now experiencing the Kentish variant (which we had in December)
    Indeed. More a case of a vaccine-resistant population than a vaccine-resistant variant.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    justin124 said:

    This will be a massive massive test for Starmer:


    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1378814199162359809/photo/1

    He seems to have withdrawn his opposition and certainly Lucy Powell endorsed them last time I saw her on Sky
    I'm beginning to wonder if Labour's new strategy for winning an election is to copy Tory policy *exactly*, and then claim that they'd make a better fist of implementing it.

    This will be a massive massive test for Starmer:


    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1378814199162359809/photo/1

    He seems to have withdrawn his opposition and certainly Lucy Powell endorsed them last time I saw her on Sky
    I'm beginning to wonder if Labour's new strategy for winning an election is to copy Tory policy *exactly*, and then claim that they'd make a better fist of implementing it.
    Pretty much what Johnson did in 2019 by pinching Corbyn's 2017 policies.
    The colossal amounts of deficit spending would appear to have rather more to do with what happened in 2020 than 2019, of course.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    It doesn't. But no-one is suggesting vaccine certificates for that scenario.
    What are they for then?
    For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this.
    So we’re putting in place a huge structure of vaxpassports at vast cost, to cover a period of a few weeks? (if we ignore the likelihood that the moment for that has quite possibly already passed given the widespread existing vaccination of the vulnerable)
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    This will be a massive massive test for Starmer:


    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1378814199162359809/photo/1

    He seems to have withdrawn his opposition and certainly Lucy Powell endorsed them last time I saw her on Sky
    I'm beginning to wonder if Labour's new strategy for winning an election is to copy Tory policy *exactly*, and then claim that they'd make a better fist of implementing it.

    This will be a massive massive test for Starmer:


    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1378814199162359809/photo/1

    He seems to have withdrawn his opposition and certainly Lucy Powell endorsed them last time I saw her on Sky
    I'm beginning to wonder if Labour's new strategy for winning an election is to copy Tory policy *exactly*, and then claim that they'd make a better fist of implementing it.
    Pretty much what Johnson did in 2019 by pinching Corbyn's 2017 policies.
    The colossal amounts of deficit spending would appear to have rather more to do with what happened in 2020 than 2019, of course.

    justin124 said:

    This will be a massive massive test for Starmer:


    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1378814199162359809/photo/1

    He seems to have withdrawn his opposition and certainly Lucy Powell endorsed them last time I saw her on Sky
    I'm beginning to wonder if Labour's new strategy for winning an election is to copy Tory policy *exactly*, and then claim that they'd make a better fist of implementing it.

    This will be a massive massive test for Starmer:


    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1378814199162359809/photo/1

    He seems to have withdrawn his opposition and certainly Lucy Powell endorsed them last time I saw her on Sky
    I'm beginning to wonder if Labour's new strategy for winning an election is to copy Tory policy *exactly*, and then claim that they'd make a better fist of implementing it.
    Pretty much what Johnson did in 2019 by pinching Corbyn's 2017 policies.
    The colossal amounts of deficit spending would appear to have rather more to do with what happened in 2020 than 2019, of course.
    Johnson had abandoned Austerity pre-Covid Lockdown.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Mortimer said:

    What have people been watching over the holidays? I watched The Maruetanian today (Cumberpatch, Jodie Foster, on Amazon Prime) and can see why it got a Gloden Globe award and 5 Bafta nominations. Based on a true story of a lawyer seeking a fair trial for a Guantansmo detainee - I won't give the ending away, but it preserves an element of ambiguity throughout and isn't jjust a sort of Mr Smith Goes to Court movie. Foster is excellent.

    I've been filling in gaps in my daughter's film history. The Men Who Stare At Goats, and Master & Commander. She liked the former more than the latter.

    Hopefully tomorrow we will play wingspan with chocolate mini eggs.

    Every day is the same and we are slowly going mad. But I am knitting her jumper quickly.
    Love M&C.

    It has actually made me want to read Po'B again!
    M&C is a top film! Shame they never did any sequels - it's not as if there wasn't sufficient source material.
    My wife remarked caustically, "Was this another film Russell Crowe was in that was supposed to be the first of a series?"
    Ha Mrs. P's summary was 'not many good roles for women in that one'.

    As an aside, for anyone who has not seen it I see it's being broadcast on Film4 on 12/04/20 at 21:00.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Andy_JS said:

    "China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline
    The country’s leaders see their moment, and are seizing it" {£}

    https://www.economist.com/china/2021/04/03/china-is-betting-that-the-west-is-in-irreversible-decline

    I stopped reading the Economist a few years ago when I was sent, by friends, three articles related to my industry, but which were somewhat underwhelming.

    Is it still influential? I'm genuinely interested....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    It doesn't. But no-one is suggesting vaccine certificates for that scenario.
    What are they for then?
    For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this.
    So we’re putting in place a huge structure of vaxpassports at vast cost, to cover a period of a few weeks? (if we ignore the likelihood that the moment for that has quite possibly already passed given the widespread existing vaccination of the vulnerable)
    More juicy contracts for mates and donors.
    Result!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    It doesn't. But no-one is suggesting vaccine certificates for that scenario.
    What are they for then?
    For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this.
    So we’re putting in place a huge structure of vaxpassports at vast cost, to cover a period of a few weeks? (if we ignore the likelihood that the moment for that has quite possibly already passed given the widespread existing vaccination of the vulnerable)
    In reality the timelines are more likely to overlap the other way.

    They'll only be available after herd immunity threshold has been reached.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Test. I just got logged out for no reason.

    Snap.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Mortimer said:

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
    Certainly looks that way. Cummings spent billions on mass testing and now we are having to use up the stock.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited April 2021
    justin124 said:

    Johnson had abandoned Austerity pre-Covid Lockdown.

    To be fair, there is something of a difference between dissenting from Osbornomics and splashing around £350bn on the temporary nationalisation of large tracts of the economy.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    What have people been watching over the holidays? I watched The Maruetanian today (Cumberpatch, Jodie Foster, on Amazon Prime) and can see why it got a Gloden Globe award and 5 Bafta nominations. Based on a true story of a lawyer seeking a fair trial for a Guantansmo detainee - I won't give the ending away, but it preserves an element of ambiguity throughout and isn't jjust a sort of Mr Smith Goes to Court movie. Foster is excellent.

    Just watched Colette, which we recorded a couple of days ago on the BBC. Not bad.

    Watched The Sting (1973) off Google Play yesterday. Neither of us had ever seen it but had always meant to. A very good lockdown feelgood film.
    One of my favourite films, seen it a dozen times. Ya folla?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Mortimer said:

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
    It’s presumably Cummings’ moonshot programme that they’d all forgotten about, coming in several months late...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited April 2021
    India Knight in the Sunday Times today asks: what's the problem with vaccine certificates when so many people give away so much of their private information on social media anyway? Pretty much what I posted on here a couple of days ago.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    dixiedean said:

    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    It doesn't. But no-one is suggesting vaccine certificates for that scenario.
    What are they for then?
    For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this.
    So we’re putting in place a huge structure of vaxpassports at vast cost, to cover a period of a few weeks? (if we ignore the likelihood that the moment for that has quite possibly already passed given the widespread existing vaccination of the vulnerable)
    More juicy contracts for mates and donors.
    Result!
    "For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this."

    I don't understand how a vaxport app helps in the situation where the vaccine turns out to not effective enough?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081

    Mortimer said:

    I want all covid restrictions, save perhaps vax certificates for overseas travel, gone by mid June.

    No masks; no “distanced dining”, nothing.

    The risk is literally vanishing in front of our eyes.

    But, It feels like I’m in a very small minority.

    I'm with you sir.

    We need to take back control of life from the public health obsessives.
    I wanted them gone by mid-June or earlier ... 2020.

    An unexpected letter has appeared in the BMJ from an NHS consultant

    https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n810/rr-14

    "Nevertheless, what I am currently struggling with is the failure to report the reality of the morbidity caused by our current vaccination program within the health service and staff population. The levels of sickness after vaccination is unprecedented and staff are getting very sick and some with neurological symptoms which is having a huge impact on the health service function. Even the young and healthy are off for days, some for weeks, and some requiring medical treatment. Whole teams are being taken out as they went to get vaccinated together."

    It doesn't surprise me in the slightest but I think if this gets into the MSM the public will feel they've had the wool pulled over their eyes. (They have, compared to other countries.)

    Patients should have been advised individually as far as possible how the risks stack up. Probably get the treatment if aged 75 and in poor health. But if aged 25 and healthy, the risk of serious injury from the vaccine is set to exceed the risk of serious illness from COVID-19 so it's stupid. The mortality risk from this virus rises steeply with advancing age, very different from flu.
    I am hearing of a few bad vaccine reactions amongst staff, but nothing more than a day or two in bed. Mostly it seems to be people who had caught real covid over the year, so not surprisingly getting a bigger immune response.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited April 2021

    Mortimer said:

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
    Certainly looks that way. Cummings spent billions on mass testing and now we are having to use up the stock.
    I have just thought of an excellent use for them.

    If anyone from the DoH&SaC (that really is named after The Thick of It, isn't it?!) wants to contact me - my DMs are open. It will please the Archbish and even the Andrew Mitchell tendency.....
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    What have people been watching over the holidays? I watched The Maruetanian today (Cumberpatch, Jodie Foster, on Amazon Prime) and can see why it got a Gloden Globe award and 5 Bafta nominations. Based on a true story of a lawyer seeking a fair trial for a Guantansmo detainee - I won't give the ending away, but it preserves an element of ambiguity throughout and isn't jjust a sort of Mr Smith Goes to Court movie. Foster is excellent.

    Just watched Colette, which we recorded a couple of days ago on the BBC. Not bad.

    Watched The Sting (1973) off Google Play yesterday. Neither of us had ever seen it but had always meant to. A very good lockdown feelgood film.
    I've been watching (just turning this into the TV thread :lol: World's most remarkable houses (I think that's what it's called) with Caroline Quentin and an architect guy called Piers. It's good.
    Brilliant show.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    What have people been watching over the holidays? I watched The Maruetanian today (Cumberpatch, Jodie Foster, on Amazon Prime) and can see why it got a Gloden Globe award and 5 Bafta nominations. Based on a true story of a lawyer seeking a fair trial for a Guantansmo detainee - I won't give the ending away, but it preserves an element of ambiguity throughout and isn't jjust a sort of Mr Smith Goes to Court movie. Foster is excellent.

    I've been filling in gaps in my daughter's film history. The Men Who Stare At Goats, and Master & Commander. She liked the former more than the latter.

    Hopefully tomorrow we will play wingspan with chocolate mini eggs.

    Every day is the same and we are slowly going mad. But I am knitting her jumper quickly.
    Love M&C.

    It has actually made me want to read Po'B again!
    I read all of PO'B again last summer/autumn. Very satisfying.

    Mortimer said:

    What have people been watching over the holidays? I watched The Maruetanian today (Cumberpatch, Jodie Foster, on Amazon Prime) and can see why it got a Gloden Globe award and 5 Bafta nominations. Based on a true story of a lawyer seeking a fair trial for a Guantansmo detainee - I won't give the ending away, but it preserves an element of ambiguity throughout and isn't jjust a sort of Mr Smith Goes to Court movie. Foster is excellent.

    I've been filling in gaps in my daughter's film history. The Men Who Stare At Goats, and Master & Commander. She liked the former more than the latter.

    Hopefully tomorrow we will play wingspan with chocolate mini eggs.

    Every day is the same and we are slowly going mad. But I am knitting her jumper quickly.
    Love M&C.

    It has actually made me want to read Po'B again!
    I read all of PO'B again last summer/autumn. Very satisfying.
    Second person to tell me that. Very jealous!

    The other was a bookshop owner, so he had them handy. I very nearly bought all the first editions when I were a nipper..... But seeing the comparable prices now, I'm quite pleased I didn't
    Do you mean the first edition PO'Bs have not gone up in value?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    It doesn't. But no-one is suggesting vaccine certificates for that scenario.
    What are they for then?
    For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this.
    We're heading for 95% uptake of a vaccines that all have 90%+ efficacy. Tbh, one of the reasons I'd think twice about J&J is that it doesn't have the same high efficacy as the other four we'll have.

    The experience in Israel is that the vaccine passport doesn't help push take up. The people who won't take it are people who don't interact with society enough to benefit from what the vaccine passport brings. The same will be true here, conservative Muslims aren't exactly going to go to gigs or festivals. Their lives are going to be exactly the same with or without it.

    So, try again, Richard. Try and defend your same tired establishment supporting narrative as usual.
    I don't need to try again. I've answered your question. Of course if you ignore what I said, and propose a different scenario, then the answer would be different.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    alex_ said:

    Mortimer said:

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
    It’s presumably Cummings’ moonshot programme that they’d all forgotten about, coming in several months late...
    To be fair, it was probably sensible to commission it given we didn't know if vaccines would work.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Was supposed to happen for parents when schools went back.
    The advice from our school was to go to your local testing centre (12 miles each way by public transport), or consult your employer (self-employed).
    It won't happen for those reasons.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited April 2021
    Mortimer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline
    The country’s leaders see their moment, and are seizing it" {£}

    https://www.economist.com/china/2021/04/03/china-is-betting-that-the-west-is-in-irreversible-decline

    I stopped reading the Economist a few years ago when I was sent, by friends, three articles related to my industry, but which were somewhat underwhelming.

    Is it still influential? I'm genuinely interested....
    I stopped reading it on a regular basis about 5 years ago when it became too predictable. I look at the website occasionally.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081

    Mortimer said:

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
    Certainly looks that way. Cummings spent billions on mass testing and now we are having to use up the stock.
    Yes, not sure what the point is in a vaccinated population.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    What have people been watching over the holidays? I watched The Maruetanian today (Cumberpatch, Jodie Foster, on Amazon Prime) and can see why it got a Gloden Globe award and 5 Bafta nominations. Based on a true story of a lawyer seeking a fair trial for a Guantansmo detainee - I won't give the ending away, but it preserves an element of ambiguity throughout and isn't jjust a sort of Mr Smith Goes to Court movie. Foster is excellent.

    I've been filling in gaps in my daughter's film history. The Men Who Stare At Goats, and Master & Commander. She liked the former more than the latter.

    Hopefully tomorrow we will play wingspan with chocolate mini eggs.

    Every day is the same and we are slowly going mad. But I am knitting her jumper quickly.
    Love M&C.

    It has actually made me want to read Po'B again!
    I read all of PO'B again last summer/autumn. Very satisfying.

    Mortimer said:

    What have people been watching over the holidays? I watched The Maruetanian today (Cumberpatch, Jodie Foster, on Amazon Prime) and can see why it got a Gloden Globe award and 5 Bafta nominations. Based on a true story of a lawyer seeking a fair trial for a Guantansmo detainee - I won't give the ending away, but it preserves an element of ambiguity throughout and isn't jjust a sort of Mr Smith Goes to Court movie. Foster is excellent.

    I've been filling in gaps in my daughter's film history. The Men Who Stare At Goats, and Master & Commander. She liked the former more than the latter.

    Hopefully tomorrow we will play wingspan with chocolate mini eggs.

    Every day is the same and we are slowly going mad. But I am knitting her jumper quickly.
    Love M&C.

    It has actually made me want to read Po'B again!
    I read all of PO'B again last summer/autumn. Very satisfying.
    Second person to tell me that. Very jealous!

    The other was a bookshop owner, so he had them handy. I very nearly bought all the first editions when I were a nipper..... But seeing the comparable prices now, I'm quite pleased I didn't
    Do you mean the first edition PO'Bs have not gone up in value?
    No, not really - or rather, not since I was young. A bit like the others in the genre: Bernard Cornwell, Allan Mallinson etc - they boomed in the 90s and 00s. Definitely a lull since.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    It doesn't. But no-one is suggesting vaccine certificates for that scenario.
    What are they for then?
    For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this.
    We're heading for 95% uptake of a vaccines that all have 90%+ efficacy. Tbh, one of the reasons I'd think twice about J&J is that it doesn't have the same high efficacy as the other four we'll have.

    The experience in Israel is that the vaccine passport doesn't help push take up. The people who won't take it are people who don't interact with society enough to benefit from what the vaccine passport brings. The same will be true here, conservative Muslims aren't exactly going to go to gigs or festivals. Their lives are going to be exactly the same with or without it.

    So, try again, Richard. Try and defend your same tired establishment supporting narrative as usual.
    I don't need to try again. I've answered your question. Of course if you ignore what I said, and propose a different scenario, then the answer would be different.
    Because what you've said is wrong. We're heading for 95% uptake of 90% efficacy vaccines. That's the scenario. How does a vaccine passport fit into that scenario. The 5% is going to be concentrated among conservative Muslims and Jews just as it is in Israel.

    Get this through your head, you're trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620

    What have people been watching over the holidays? I watched The Maruetanian today (Cumberpatch, Jodie Foster, on Amazon Prime) and can see why it got a Gloden Globe award and 5 Bafta nominations. Based on a true story of a lawyer seeking a fair trial for a Guantansmo detainee - I won't give the ending away, but it preserves an element of ambiguity throughout and isn't jjust a sort of Mr Smith Goes to Court movie. Foster is excellent.

    The Morning Show on AppleTV. It’s superb so far.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Mortimer said:

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
    Certainly looks that way. Cummings spent billions on mass testing and now we are having to use up the stock.
    The public enthusiasm for these things may be limited. I use them, because my employer has dished them out. Not strictly compulsory, though in practice the awkward conversation with management about why you weren't taking them would be too much hassle, and they're not a huge imposition even if picking up any trace of illness at this stage of the game is unlikely. The total number of positive tests recorded so far has, I believe, been zero.

    That having been said, the experience of setting up a little chemistry set a couple of mornings a week, sticking a long cotton bud right up your nose and twiddling it about isn't particularly pleasant.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    dixiedean said:

    Test. I just got logged out for no reason.

    Snap.
    Happens to me quite often - usually when I have the killer response ready for an argument I am losing 😬
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited April 2021
    b
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
    Certainly looks that way. Cummings spent billions on mass testing and now we are having to use up the stock.
    Yes, not sure what the point is in a vaccinated population.
    So is it possible the entire vaxport idea is actually being driven by the need to use up a surplus of tests and avert Audit Office criticism for colossal waste of money? Testing being offered up as the “alternative” for the unvaccinated?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
    Certainly looks that way. Cummings spent billions on mass testing and now we are having to use up the stock.
    Yes, not sure what the point is in a vaccinated population.
    I suppose one can see an argument as so far only the over 50s and vulnerables have been vaccinated. And of course vaccine doesn't give 100% protection from infection.

    Just feels to me like an over reaction but I'm not going to die in a ditch over it.

    Unlike covid passport app, which I will fight as hard as I am able...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited April 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    India Knight in the Sunday Times today asks: what's the problem with vaccine certificates when so many people give away so much of their private information on social media anyway? Pretty much what I posted on here a couple of days ago.

    So, we must all go on the ID card database because the f-ing idiots who choose to put their entire lives on Facebook already share everything? What a compelling argument.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    @MaxPB @Mortimer and others: I give in on vaccine passports - you're right, we don't need them and they would probably be an expensive white elephant.

    (I therefore fully expect this government to proceed full steam ahead.)

    A PB first? ;)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    alex_ said:

    b

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
    Certainly looks that way. Cummings spent billions on mass testing and now we are having to use up the stock.
    Yes, not sure what the point is in a vaccinated population.
    So is it possible the entire vaxport idea is actually being driven by the need to use up a surplus of tests and avert Audit Office criticism for colossal waste of money? Testing being offered up as the “alternative” for the unvaccinated?
    Those choosing not to be vaccinated are hardly likely to stick their hand up for shoving a cotton bud up their noses twice a week are they?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    @MaxPB @Mortimer and others: I give in on vaccine passports - you're right, we don't need them and they would probably be an expensive white elephant.

    (I therefore fully expect this government to proceed full steam ahead.)

    Haha. Good on you sir.

    Is this the first example of a mind changed on PB?? A noteworthy event.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Also been ploughing through the Jeeves and Wooster box set!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    alex_ said:

    @MaxPB @Mortimer and others: I give in on vaccine passports - you're right, we don't need them and they would probably be an expensive white elephant.

    (I therefore fully expect this government to proceed full steam ahead.)

    A PB first? ;)
    My heart wasn't really in it tbh - and then when all the facts stacked against me too...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    It doesn't. But no-one is suggesting vaccine certificates for that scenario.
    What are they for then?
    For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this.
    We're heading for 95% uptake of a vaccines that all have 90%+ efficacy. Tbh, one of the reasons I'd think twice about J&J is that it doesn't have the same high efficacy as the other four we'll have.

    The experience in Israel is that the vaccine passport doesn't help push take up. The people who won't take it are people who don't interact with society enough to benefit from what the vaccine passport brings. The same will be true here, conservative Muslims aren't exactly going to go to gigs or festivals. Their lives are going to be exactly the same with or without it.

    So, try again, Richard. Try and defend your same tired establishment supporting narrative as usual.
    I don't need to try again. I've answered your question. Of course if you ignore what I said, and propose a different scenario, then the answer would be different.
    Because what you've said is wrong. We're heading for 95% uptake of 90% efficacy vaccines. That's the scenario. How does a vaccine passport fit into that scenario. The 5% is going to be concentrated among conservative Muslims and Jews just as it is in Israel.

    Get this through your head, you're trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist.
    Err, how can what I said be 'wrong'? I didn't express any view on the probability that we'll hit that intermediate scenario, for the very good reason that nobody knows. You seem to think the risk is exactly zero. Let's hope you're right. But if not...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    alex_ said:

    b

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
    Certainly looks that way. Cummings spent billions on mass testing and now we are having to use up the stock.
    Yes, not sure what the point is in a vaccinated population.
    So is it possible the entire vaxport idea is actually being driven by the need to use up a surplus of tests and avert Audit Office criticism for colossal waste of money? Testing being offered up as the “alternative” for the unvaccinated?
    Those choosing not to be vaccinated are hardly likely to stick their hand up for shoving a cotton bud up their noses twice a week are they?
    Ultimately those choosing not to be vaccinated are peoppe are also very unlikely to be going to those places the government say need passports to operate.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Mortimer said:

    @MaxPB @Mortimer and others: I give in on vaccine passports - you're right, we don't need them and they would probably be an expensive white elephant.

    (I therefore fully expect this government to proceed full steam ahead.)

    Haha. Good on you sir.

    Is this the first example of a mind changed on PB?? A noteworthy event.
    Happens all the time, i’m sure. And it’s quite common to get stuck in Devil’s advocate situations. Public declarations of defeat are pretty rare though. Bravo!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Mortimer said:

    @MaxPB @Mortimer and others: I give in on vaccine passports - you're right, we don't need them and they would probably be an expensive white elephant.

    (I therefore fully expect this government to proceed full steam ahead.)

    Haha. Good on you sir.

    Is this the first example of a mind changed on PB?? A noteworthy event.
    Nah - I've seen a few others fess up to being wrong - happy to do so on this occasion.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    alex_ said:

    Mortimer said:

    @MaxPB @Mortimer and others: I give in on vaccine passports - you're right, we don't need them and they would probably be an expensive white elephant.

    (I therefore fully expect this government to proceed full steam ahead.)

    Haha. Good on you sir.

    Is this the first example of a mind changed on PB?? A noteworthy event.
    Happens all the time, i’m sure. And it’s quite common to get stuck in Devil’s advocate situations. Public declarations of defeat are pretty rare though. Bravo!
    Actually that is true.

    I remember @MaxPB turning me from a mildly Eurosceptic unwilling Remainer to a cautious Leaver in mid Feb 2016 after the renegotiation. Still the only election that I've ever really had to think about my vote....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited April 2021
    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    b

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
    Certainly looks that way. Cummings spent billions on mass testing and now we are having to use up the stock.
    Yes, not sure what the point is in a vaccinated population.
    So is it possible the entire vaxport idea is actually being driven by the need to use up a surplus of tests and avert Audit Office criticism for colossal waste of money? Testing being offered up as the “alternative” for the unvaccinated?
    Those choosing not to be vaccinated are hardly likely to stick their hand up for shoving a cotton bud up their noses twice a week are they?
    Ultimately those choosing not to be vaccinated are peoppe are also very unlikely to be going to those places the government say need passports to operate.
    Ah now, I'm not sure about that. Whetherspoons, nightclubs?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    b

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
    Certainly looks that way. Cummings spent billions on mass testing and now we are having to use up the stock.
    Yes, not sure what the point is in a vaccinated population.
    So is it possible the entire vaxport idea is actually being driven by the need to use up a surplus of tests and avert Audit Office criticism for colossal waste of money? Testing being offered up as the “alternative” for the unvaccinated?
    Those choosing not to be vaccinated are hardly likely to stick their hand up for shoving a cotton bud up their noses twice a week are they?
    Ultimately those choosing not to be vaccinated are peoppe are also very unlikely to be going to those places the government say need passports to operate.
    Ah now, I'm not sure about that. Whetherspoons, nightclubs?
    Whither, spoons?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    b

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
    Certainly looks that way. Cummings spent billions on mass testing and now we are having to use up the stock.
    Yes, not sure what the point is in a vaccinated population.
    So is it possible the entire vaxport idea is actually being driven by the need to use up a surplus of tests and avert Audit Office criticism for colossal waste of money? Testing being offered up as the “alternative” for the unvaccinated?
    Those choosing not to be vaccinated are hardly likely to stick their hand up for shoving a cotton bud up their noses twice a week are they?
    Ultimately those choosing not to be vaccinated are peoppe are also very unlikely to be going to those places the government say need passports to operate.
    Ah now, I'm not sure about that. Whetherspoons, nightclubs?
    Whither, spoons?
    Whateverspoons
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    It doesn't. But no-one is suggesting vaccine certificates for that scenario.
    What are they for then?
    For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this.
    We're heading for 95% uptake of a vaccines that all have 90%+ efficacy. Tbh, one of the reasons I'd think twice about J&J is that it doesn't have the same high efficacy as the other four we'll have.

    The experience in Israel is that the vaccine passport doesn't help push take up. The people who won't take it are people who don't interact with society enough to benefit from what the vaccine passport brings. The same will be true here, conservative Muslims aren't exactly going to go to gigs or festivals. Their lives are going to be exactly the same with or without it.

    So, try again, Richard. Try and defend your same tired establishment supporting narrative as usual.
    I don't need to try again. I've answered your question. Of course if you ignore what I said, and propose a different scenario, then the answer would be different.
    Because what you've said is wrong. We're heading for 95% uptake of 90% efficacy vaccines. That's the scenario. How does a vaccine passport fit into that scenario. The 5% is going to be concentrated among conservative Muslims and Jews just as it is in Israel.

    Get this through your head, you're trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist.
    Err, how can what I said be 'wrong'? I didn't express any view on the probability that we'll hit that intermediate scenario, for the very good reason that nobody knows. You seem to think the risk is exactly zero. Let's hope you're right. But if not...
    I’m presumably misunderstanding, but one of your arguments for vaccine passports seems to be for scenarios involving vaccine ineffectiveness. But the vaxport idea has as a basic assumption that vaccines ARE effective. If they aren’t then there’s no point.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    b

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
    Certainly looks that way. Cummings spent billions on mass testing and now we are having to use up the stock.
    Yes, not sure what the point is in a vaccinated population.
    So is it possible the entire vaxport idea is actually being driven by the need to use up a surplus of tests and avert Audit Office criticism for colossal waste of money? Testing being offered up as the “alternative” for the unvaccinated?
    Those choosing not to be vaccinated are hardly likely to stick their hand up for shoving a cotton bud up their noses twice a week are they?
    Ultimately those choosing not to be vaccinated are peoppe are also very unlikely to be going to those places the government say need passports to operate.
    Ah now, I'm not sure about that. Whetherspoons, nightclubs?
    Ah those religious conservatives love raving in nightclubs until the early hours!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:

    b

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
    Certainly looks that way. Cummings spent billions on mass testing and now we are having to use up the stock.
    Yes, not sure what the point is in a vaccinated population.
    So is it possible the entire vaxport idea is actually being driven by the need to use up a surplus of tests and avert Audit Office criticism for colossal waste of money? Testing being offered up as the “alternative” for the unvaccinated?
    Those choosing not to be vaccinated are hardly likely to stick their hand up for shoving a cotton bud up their noses twice a week are they?

    I was referring to scenarios of Vaxports introduced before all had been offered vaccines or before they had got the immunity from them.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tlg86 said:

    Mortimer said:

    I see we are back, yet again, to the WFH, all-or-nothing, introvert vs extrovert, culture wars.

    As usual, it won’t be one or the other for most people, but a hybrid. WFH is great for solitary tasks, in-person is better for collaborative working.

    Therefore most employees will work a mixture, 3-5 days a fortnight at home, and the rest in offices or on site.

    This was my feeling at first. Now I think its going to be far more back in the office.

    Will be interesting to see. The big firms have already started mandating it; doesn't surprise me....
    We haven't had the argument about masks, yet. It's my red line. As long as they are mandated on public transport, I am not going to the office.
    We are not insisting people return to the office until they are vaccinated
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    It doesn't. But no-one is suggesting vaccine certificates for that scenario.
    What are they for then?
    For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this.
    We're heading for 95% uptake of a vaccines that all have 90%+ efficacy. Tbh, one of the reasons I'd think twice about J&J is that it doesn't have the same high efficacy as the other four we'll have.

    The experience in Israel is that the vaccine passport doesn't help push take up. The people who won't take it are people who don't interact with society enough to benefit from what the vaccine passport brings. The same will be true here, conservative Muslims aren't exactly going to go to gigs or festivals. Their lives are going to be exactly the same with or without it.

    So, try again, Richard. Try and defend your same tired establishment supporting narrative as usual.
    I don't need to try again. I've answered your question. Of course if you ignore what I said, and propose a different scenario, then the answer would be different.
    Because what you've said is wrong. We're heading for 95% uptake of 90% efficacy vaccines. That's the scenario. How does a vaccine passport fit into that scenario. The 5% is going to be concentrated among conservative Muslims and Jews just as it is in Israel.

    Get this through your head, you're trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist.
    Err, how can what I said be 'wrong'? I didn't express any view on the probability that we'll hit that intermediate scenario, for the very good reason that nobody knows. You seem to think the risk is exactly zero. Let's hope you're right. But if not...
    You said "perhaps effectiveness" won't be enough. We know that not to be the case. 4/5 vaccines we're using have 90%+ efficacy. Your scenario is wrong from the outset.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    edited April 2021
    1
    alex_ said:



    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    It doesn't. But no-one is suggesting vaccine certificates for that scenario.
    What are they for then?
    For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this.
    We're heading for 95% uptake of a vaccines that all have 90%+ efficacy. Tbh, one of the reasons I'd think twice about J&J is that it doesn't have the same high efficacy as the other four we'll have.

    The experience in Israel is that the vaccine passport doesn't help push take up. The people who won't take it are people who don't interact with society enough to benefit from what the vaccine passport brings. The same will be true here, conservative Muslims aren't exactly going to go to gigs or festivals. Their lives are going to be exactly the same with or without it.

    So, try again, Richard. Try and defend your same tired establishment supporting narrative as usual.
    I don't need to try again. I've answered your question. Of course if you ignore what I said, and propose a different scenario, then the answer would be different.
    Because what you've said is wrong. We're heading for 95% uptake of 90% efficacy vaccines. That's the scenario. How does a vaccine passport fit into that scenario. The 5% is going to be concentrated among conservative Muslims and Jews just as it is in Israel.

    Get this through your head, you're trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist.
    Err, how can what I said be 'wrong'? I didn't express any view on the probability that we'll hit that intermediate scenario, for the very good reason that nobody knows. You seem to think the risk is exactly zero. Let's hope you're right. But if not...
    I’m presumably misunderstanding, but one of your arguments for vaccine passports seems to be for scenarios involving vaccine ineffectiveness. But the vaxport idea has as a basic assumption that vaccines ARE effective. If they aren’t then there’s no point.
    Yup. Vaxports are swathed in a series of catch 22s..
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005

    Mortimer said:

    @MaxPB @Mortimer and others: I give in on vaccine passports - you're right, we don't need them and they would probably be an expensive white elephant.

    (I therefore fully expect this government to proceed full steam ahead.)

    Haha. Good on you sir.

    Is this the first example of a mind changed on PB?? A noteworthy event.
    Nah - I've seen a few others fess up to being wrong - happy to do so on this occasion.
    I reckon a fair few others do it quietly.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,404

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    I am reminded of the old slogan:

    If the Tories get up your nose, picket.

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Mortimer said:

    @MaxPB @Mortimer and others: I give in on vaccine passports - you're right, we don't need them and they would probably be an expensive white elephant.

    (I therefore fully expect this government to proceed full steam ahead.)

    Haha. Good on you sir.

    Is this the first example of a mind changed on PB?? A noteworthy event.
    Nah - I've seen a few others fess up to being wrong - happy to do so on this occasion.
    SeanT arguing with himself doesn’t count! ;)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    b

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
    Certainly looks that way. Cummings spent billions on mass testing and now we are having to use up the stock.
    Yes, not sure what the point is in a vaccinated population.
    So is it possible the entire vaxport idea is actually being driven by the need to use up a surplus of tests and avert Audit Office criticism for colossal waste of money? Testing being offered up as the “alternative” for the unvaccinated?
    Those choosing not to be vaccinated are hardly likely to stick their hand up for shoving a cotton bud up their noses twice a week are they?
    Ultimately those choosing not to be vaccinated are peoppe are also very unlikely to be going to those places the government say need passports to operate.
    Ah now, I'm not sure about that. Whetherspoons, nightclubs?
    Ah those religious conservatives love raving in nightclubs until the early hours!
    Wetherspoons might be the last refuge for the QAnon-lite, 5G conspiracist, anti-vaxxers...

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/19/wetherspoons-hit-by-68m-loss-as-boss-hits-out-at-covid-controls
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    alex_ said:



    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    It doesn't. But no-one is suggesting vaccine certificates for that scenario.
    What are they for then?
    For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this.
    We're heading for 95% uptake of a vaccines that all have 90%+ efficacy. Tbh, one of the reasons I'd think twice about J&J is that it doesn't have the same high efficacy as the other four we'll have.

    The experience in Israel is that the vaccine passport doesn't help push take up. The people who won't take it are people who don't interact with society enough to benefit from what the vaccine passport brings. The same will be true here, conservative Muslims aren't exactly going to go to gigs or festivals. Their lives are going to be exactly the same with or without it.

    So, try again, Richard. Try and defend your same tired establishment supporting narrative as usual.
    I don't need to try again. I've answered your question. Of course if you ignore what I said, and propose a different scenario, then the answer would be different.
    Because what you've said is wrong. We're heading for 95% uptake of 90% efficacy vaccines. That's the scenario. How does a vaccine passport fit into that scenario. The 5% is going to be concentrated among conservative Muslims and Jews just as it is in Israel.

    Get this through your head, you're trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist.
    Err, how can what I said be 'wrong'? I didn't express any view on the probability that we'll hit that intermediate scenario, for the very good reason that nobody knows. You seem to think the risk is exactly zero. Let's hope you're right. But if not...
    I’m presumably misunderstanding, but one of your arguments for vaccine passports seems to be for scenarios involving vaccine ineffectiveness. But the vaxport idea has as a basic assumption that vaccines ARE effective. If they aren’t then there’s no point.
    No, that's wrong. Where they might be useful is if either take-up is insufficient to avoid cases getting out of control, or if they are only partially effective, or a combination. Max is right that they wouldn't be needed if 95% of adults take up vaccines which are 90% effective. But what if the figures are 80% and 70%?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620

    Andy_JS said:

    India Knight in the Sunday Times today asks: what's the problem with vaccine certificates when so many people give away so much of their private information on social media anyway? Pretty much what I posted on here a couple of days ago.

    So, we must all go on the ID card database because the f-ing idiots who choose to put their entire lives on Facebook already share everything? What a compelling argument.
    She is a shit columnist. People don't seem to grasp the difference between voluntarism and compulsion.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    b

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
    Certainly looks that way. Cummings spent billions on mass testing and now we are having to use up the stock.
    Yes, not sure what the point is in a vaccinated population.
    So is it possible the entire vaxport idea is actually being driven by the need to use up a surplus of tests and avert Audit Office criticism for colossal waste of money? Testing being offered up as the “alternative” for the unvaccinated?
    Those choosing not to be vaccinated are hardly likely to stick their hand up for shoving a cotton bud up their noses twice a week are they?
    Ultimately those choosing not to be vaccinated are peoppe are also very unlikely to be going to those places the government say need passports to operate.
    Ah now, I'm not sure about that. Whetherspoons, nightclubs?
    Ah those religious conservatives love raving in nightclubs until the early hours!
    Wetherspoons might be the last refuge for the QAnon-lite, 5G conspiracist, anti-vaxxers...

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/19/wetherspoons-hit-by-68m-loss-as-boss-hits-out-at-covid-controls
    Yep. I shall not darken Spoons door again. The boss is an arse, and his establishments have been conspiracy theory billboards.
    I'm sure they won't miss me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited April 2021

    alex_ said:

    RobD said:

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting article. Following on from the Tories best performance in Wales in decades in 2019, I would expect Andrew RT Davies to lead the Tories to their best Senedd performance since 1999, in particular gaining Labour seats in North Wales as they did at the general election.
    I expect Plaid to make inroads on the list too.

    However Labour's continued dominance in South Wales, which has the largest number of Welsh constituencies, should see it remain largest party

    If it happens it will have nothing to do with RT Davies who is hopeless
    RT is the best Welsh Conservative leader since devolution in 1999
    RT is the best Welsh Conservative Leader since the last but one Welsh Conservatives Leader.
    He will do better than Nick Bourne ever did in May, the best Nick Bourne got was 25% on the constituency vote and 22% on the list in 2011

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375105505350287362?s=20
    Amazing the “Abolish” can get 7% of the vote. I can’t help but imagine them the very worst kind of knuckle-draggers.
    Why? The referendum was only just won by Yes:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Welsh_devolution_referendum

    Hardly a surprise that there's support for abolishing it.
    And devolution has hardly beenan unqualified success in delivering tge great Welsh leap forward.
    Perhaps they need a proper electoral system; the current one is gamed to favour Labour.

    Second, it needs some real powers, otherwise it’s just a talking shop.

    Third, the Welsh actually need to vote as if they do want first class education and health systems. At present; they don’t seem fussed.

    Finally, I have seen some academic writing that suggests that Welsh devolution has improved Welsh GDP by a small amount; compared to the counter-factual. No, don’t ask me to find it.
    There are a ton of powers devolved to the Welsh parliament, it's hardly a talking shop.
    Suffers from the same broad problems as Scotland: lots of administrative responsibility, comparatively little in the way of revenue raising.

    This, of course, could be solved by independence. Then the Welsh Parliament would control all the levers, and these kinds of arguments would end.
    Even ignoring all the other problems, how would an independent Wales overcome the existence of a hard border with England? (Which is of course a major issue for Sindy as well). Within the EU they would not be allowed to negotiate “special arrangements”.
    I suppose I wasn't being entirely serious. I am just deeply cynical about devolution and the tensions that it has created or exacerbated.

    What we already know from Scotland, because we have the evidence of 2014 to prove it, is that nearly half of the population has had enough of being part of the same country as England and actively wants rid of us. There's no particular reason to suppose that Wales isn't on the same trajectory, just a number of years behind.

    It makes one actively question what the point of the British state is. If the component parts don't really like it, and are only sticking together because they're afraid that blowing it up will leave them with a bit less money to spend, then why bother?
    As we are each weaker on the world stage without it as we would each be weaker economically too.

    Half of Scots are still opposed to independence as are 2/3 of Welsh voters and Wales, like England, voted for Brexit
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    alex_ said:



    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    It doesn't. But no-one is suggesting vaccine certificates for that scenario.
    What are they for then?
    For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this.
    We're heading for 95% uptake of a vaccines that all have 90%+ efficacy. Tbh, one of the reasons I'd think twice about J&J is that it doesn't have the same high efficacy as the other four we'll have.

    The experience in Israel is that the vaccine passport doesn't help push take up. The people who won't take it are people who don't interact with society enough to benefit from what the vaccine passport brings. The same will be true here, conservative Muslims aren't exactly going to go to gigs or festivals. Their lives are going to be exactly the same with or without it.

    So, try again, Richard. Try and defend your same tired establishment supporting narrative as usual.
    I don't need to try again. I've answered your question. Of course if you ignore what I said, and propose a different scenario, then the answer would be different.
    Because what you've said is wrong. We're heading for 95% uptake of 90% efficacy vaccines. That's the scenario. How does a vaccine passport fit into that scenario. The 5% is going to be concentrated among conservative Muslims and Jews just as it is in Israel.

    Get this through your head, you're trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist.
    Err, how can what I said be 'wrong'? I didn't express any view on the probability that we'll hit that intermediate scenario, for the very good reason that nobody knows. You seem to think the risk is exactly zero. Let's hope you're right. But if not...
    I’m presumably misunderstanding, but one of your arguments for vaccine passports seems to be for scenarios involving vaccine ineffectiveness. But the vaxport idea has as a basic assumption that vaccines ARE effective. If they aren’t then there’s no point.
    No, that's wrong. Where they might be useful is if either take-up is insufficient to avoid cases getting out of control, or if they are only partially effective, or a combination. Max is right that they wouldn't be needed if 95% of adults take up vaccines which are 90% effective. But what if the figures are 80% and 70%?
    But we know the latter isn't 70%. That's why your scenario is incorrect. One of the major variables is a known 90%, the other known major variable is currently 95% among groups who have been offered it.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    It doesn't. But no-one is suggesting vaccine certificates for that scenario.
    What are they for then?
    For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this.
    We're heading for 95% uptake of a vaccines that all have 90%+ efficacy. Tbh, one of the reasons I'd think twice about J&J is that it doesn't have the same high efficacy as the other four we'll have.

    The experience in Israel is that the vaccine passport doesn't help push take up. The people who won't take it are people who don't interact with society enough to benefit from what the vaccine passport brings. The same will be true here, conservative Muslims aren't exactly going to go to gigs or festivals. Their lives are going to be exactly the same with or without it.

    So, try again, Richard. Try and defend your same tired establishment supporting narrative as usual.
    I don't need to try again. I've answered your question. Of course if you ignore what I said, and propose a different scenario, then the answer would be different.
    Because what you've said is wrong. We're heading for 95% uptake of 90% efficacy vaccines. That's the scenario. How does a vaccine passport fit into that scenario. The 5% is going to be concentrated among conservative Muslims and Jews just as it is in Israel.

    Get this through your head, you're trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist.
    Err, how can what I said be 'wrong'? I didn't express any view on the probability that we'll hit that intermediate scenario, for the very good reason that nobody knows. You seem to think the risk is exactly zero. Let's hope you're right. But if not...
    You said "perhaps effectiveness" won't be enough. We know that not to be the case. 4/5 vaccines we're using have 90%+ efficacy. Your scenario is wrong from the outset.
    Have you not heard of variants?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I am not scientific but am surprised how dire things have become again in Europre re- Covid. Whilst vaccination levels lag well behind the UK , they have now reached the 10% - 15% range - which is surely comparable to our own levels at the beginning of February. From memory, I thought conditions here were improving by that time.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Andy_JS said:

    India Knight in the Sunday Times today asks: what's the problem with vaccine certificates when so many people give away so much of their private information on social media anyway? Pretty much what I posted on here a couple of days ago.

    So, we must all go on the ID card database because the f-ing idiots who choose to put their entire lives on Facebook already share everything? What a compelling argument.
    She is a shit columnist. People don't seem to grasp the difference between voluntarism and compulsion.
    Or indeed between private businesses and the state.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    It doesn't. But no-one is suggesting vaccine certificates for that scenario.
    What are they for then?
    For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this.
    We're heading for 95% uptake of a vaccines that all have 90%+ efficacy. Tbh, one of the reasons I'd think twice about J&J is that it doesn't have the same high efficacy as the other four we'll have.

    The experience in Israel is that the vaccine passport doesn't help push take up. The people who won't take it are people who don't interact with society enough to benefit from what the vaccine passport brings. The same will be true here, conservative Muslims aren't exactly going to go to gigs or festivals. Their lives are going to be exactly the same with or without it.

    So, try again, Richard. Try and defend your same tired establishment supporting narrative as usual.
    I don't need to try again. I've answered your question. Of course if you ignore what I said, and propose a different scenario, then the answer would be different.
    Because what you've said is wrong. We're heading for 95% uptake of 90% efficacy vaccines. That's the scenario. How does a vaccine passport fit into that scenario. The 5% is going to be concentrated among conservative Muslims and Jews just as it is in Israel.

    Get this through your head, you're trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist.
    Err, how can what I said be 'wrong'? I didn't express any view on the probability that we'll hit that intermediate scenario, for the very good reason that nobody knows. You seem to think the risk is exactly zero. Let's hope you're right. But if not...
    You said "perhaps effectiveness" won't be enough. We know that not to be the case. 4/5 vaccines we're using have 90%+ efficacy. Your scenario is wrong from the outset.
    Have you not heard of variants?
    Have you not heard of reformulations? And didn't you literally admit earlier that a vaccine passport system has no utility when it comes to variants anyway and that isn't one of the reasons to be in favour.

    So we're back to you just supporting the establishment position because the civil service says it's necessary and they couldn't possibly ever be wrong about these things.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    Richard - if the variants are resistant, what's the point of vaxports?
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,752

    What have people been watching over the holidays? I watched The Maruetanian today (Cumberpatch, Jodie Foster, on Amazon Prime) and can see why it got a Gloden Globe award and 5 Bafta nominations. Based on a true story of a lawyer seeking a fair trial for a Guantansmo detainee - I won't give the ending away, but it preserves an element of ambiguity throughout and isn't jjust a sort of Mr Smith Goes to Court movie. Foster is excellent.

    The Morning Show on AppleTV. It’s superb so far.
    Late introduction to Peaky Blinders for me, and I was quickly hooked.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    It doesn't. But no-one is suggesting vaccine certificates for that scenario.
    What are they for then?
    For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this.
    We're heading for 95% uptake of a vaccines that all have 90%+ efficacy. Tbh, one of the reasons I'd think twice about J&J is that it doesn't have the same high efficacy as the other four we'll have.

    The experience in Israel is that the vaccine passport doesn't help push take up. The people who won't take it are people who don't interact with society enough to benefit from what the vaccine passport brings. The same will be true here, conservative Muslims aren't exactly going to go to gigs or festivals. Their lives are going to be exactly the same with or without it.

    So, try again, Richard. Try and defend your same tired establishment supporting narrative as usual.
    I don't need to try again. I've answered your question. Of course if you ignore what I said, and propose a different scenario, then the answer would be different.
    Because what you've said is wrong. We're heading for 95% uptake of 90% efficacy vaccines. That's the scenario. How does a vaccine passport fit into that scenario. The 5% is going to be concentrated among conservative Muslims and Jews just as it is in Israel.

    Get this through your head, you're trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist.
    Err, how can what I said be 'wrong'? I didn't express any view on the probability that we'll hit that intermediate scenario, for the very good reason that nobody knows. You seem to think the risk is exactly zero. Let's hope you're right. But if not...
    You said "perhaps effectiveness" won't be enough. We know that not to be the case. 4/5 vaccines we're using have 90%+ efficacy. Your scenario is wrong from the outset.
    Have you not heard of variants?
    Have you not heard of reformulations? And didn't you literally admit earlier that a vaccine passport system has no utility when it comes to variants anyway and that isn't one of the reasons to be in favour.

    So we're back to you just supporting the establishment position because the civil service says it's necessary and they couldn't possibly ever be wrong about these things.
    If we can reformulate the vaccines fast enough and re-jab fast enough, then great. You are simply assuming that everything goes perfectly. Sensible governments, in this very nasty pandemic, need to plan for scenarios which don't work out 100%.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cookie said:

    I hope people realise that cases are rapidly declining again, despite everybody breaking the rules willy nilly.

    Not around here they aren't.
    That's what you think.

    But you, not being based here, know better?
    I find it hard to believe that everybody I know is breaking the rules and everybody on my street is breaking the rules but everyone in your area is sticking to them rigidly.
    I see remarkably little rule bending in my neighbourhood or amongst my friends and family.
    A little, perhaps. But it's very marginal.
    I went to primrose hill yesterday - very crowded but clearly in segregated groups observing distancing
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited April 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    India Knight in the Sunday Times today asks: what's the problem with vaccine certificates when so many people give away so much of their private information on social media anyway? Pretty much what I posted on here a couple of days ago.

    So, we must all go on the ID card database because the f-ing idiots who choose to put their entire lives on Facebook already share everything? What a compelling argument.
    She is a shit columnist. People don't seem to grasp the difference between voluntarism and compulsion.
    I don't agree with her. It's just that I thought a columnist like her would use that particular argument very soon, and they did.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    Dispersion of the civil service will weaken departments and parliament so, ironically, decentralisation is part of the centralisation of power at Number 10.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    It's a get out of jail free card for Johnson if there is a third wave, and Starmer opposes.
    How would vaccine passports stop a third wave exactly?
    A question no one has proposed an answer to. If the next wave is because of a fully vaccine resistant variant then how does the vaccine passport with now useless vaccine information stop the new variant from spreading?
    It doesn't. But no-one is suggesting vaccine certificates for that scenario.
    What are they for then?
    For the intermediate situation where take-up of vaccines, and perhaps effectiveness, isn't sufficient to allow removal of all restrictions. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this.
    We're heading for 95% uptake of a vaccines that all have 90%+ efficacy. Tbh, one of the reasons I'd think twice about J&J is that it doesn't have the same high efficacy as the other four we'll have.

    The experience in Israel is that the vaccine passport doesn't help push take up. The people who won't take it are people who don't interact with society enough to benefit from what the vaccine passport brings. The same will be true here, conservative Muslims aren't exactly going to go to gigs or festivals. Their lives are going to be exactly the same with or without it.

    So, try again, Richard. Try and defend your same tired establishment supporting narrative as usual.
    I don't need to try again. I've answered your question. Of course if you ignore what I said, and propose a different scenario, then the answer would be different.
    Because what you've said is wrong. We're heading for 95% uptake of 90% efficacy vaccines. That's the scenario. How does a vaccine passport fit into that scenario. The 5% is going to be concentrated among conservative Muslims and Jews just as it is in Israel.

    Get this through your head, you're trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist.
    Err, how can what I said be 'wrong'? I didn't express any view on the probability that we'll hit that intermediate scenario, for the very good reason that nobody knows. You seem to think the risk is exactly zero. Let's hope you're right. But if not...
    You said "perhaps effectiveness" won't be enough. We know that not to be the case. 4/5 vaccines we're using have 90%+ efficacy. Your scenario is wrong from the outset.
    Have you not heard of variants?
    Have you not heard of reformulations? And didn't you literally admit earlier that a vaccine passport system has no utility when it comes to variants anyway and that isn't one of the reasons to be in favour.

    So we're back to you just supporting the establishment position because the civil service says it's necessary and they couldn't possibly ever be wrong about these things.
    If we can reformulate the vaccines fast enough and re-jab fast enough, then great. You are simply assuming that everything goes perfectly. Sensible governments, in this very nasty pandemic, need to plan for scenarios which don't work out 100%.
    But a vaccine passport isn't going to make any difference in that scenario. You admitted that already. To what end are they going to be used?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    justin124 said:

    I am not scientific but am surprised how dire things have become again in Europre re- Covid. Whilst vaccination levels lag well behind the UK , they have now reached the 10% - 15% range - which is surely comparable to our own levels at the beginning of February. From memory, I thought conditions here were improving by that time.

    The differences in restrictions are surely more important in the early stages? Vaccination of 10% now will reduce the case rate a little, and the mortality rate a little more. Less so if you don't prioritise on the elderly, as is the case in several countries.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited April 2021
    justin124 said:

    I am not scientific but am surprised how dire things have become again in Europre re- Covid. Whilst vaccination levels lag well behind the UK , they have now reached the 10% - 15% range - which is surely comparable to our own levels at the beginning of February. From memory, I thought conditions here were improving by that time.

    A lot of countries have been vaccinating the wrong people. Some of them have been jabbing neither the elderly nor the young, but the people in the middle age groups. (I think that's right).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    Andy_JS said:

    India Knight in the Sunday Times today asks: what's the problem with vaccine certificates when so many people give away so much of their private information on social media anyway? Pretty much what I posted on here a couple of days ago.

    So, we must all go on the ID card database because the f-ing idiots who choose to put their entire lives on Facebook already share everything? What a compelling argument.
    It's a terrible argument, I agree.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934

    ydoethur said:

    Very nice thread header, boyo!

    I have lived in Wales since 1986. Both my parents were first language Welsh speakers. The only Welsh people I have ever heard say boyo are the actors Windsor Davies and Richard Davies. Both presumably reading scripts written by English people.
    You forgot about John Talfryn Thomas in Dad's Army.
    Same scriptwriters, of course...
    Nogood Boyo shall live forever more in Llaregub.
    Llareggub.

    You are right, Dylan Thomas used it in UMW.

    His most dislikeable work.
    And yet the one everyone knows (and seems to love).
    A Child's Christmas in Wales?
    Alright alright.

    I’m more of an RS Thomas fan, anyway.
    Surely a typo? Please allow me to correct you. "I'm more of a Sean Thomas fan anyway"
    Never read him, nor his compatriot SK Tremayne.
    Only £2.99 each on Kindle, and at least one of them is set in Cornwall.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    What have people been watching over the holidays? I watched The Maruetanian today (Cumberpatch, Jodie Foster, on Amazon Prime) and can see why it got a Gloden Globe award and 5 Bafta nominations. Based on a true story of a lawyer seeking a fair trial for a Guantansmo detainee - I won't give the ending away, but it preserves an element of ambiguity throughout and isn't jjust a sort of Mr Smith Goes to Court movie. Foster is excellent.

    Was the ending “mission accomplished”?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    b

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    What's all this about testing every adult twice a week?

    On the face of it seems like total over reaction to the situation when large % now have been vaccinated.

    Did the Govt buy a gazillion tests and they're trying to find a policy which can make use of them?
    Certainly looks that way. Cummings spent billions on mass testing and now we are having to use up the stock.
    Yes, not sure what the point is in a vaccinated population.
    So is it possible the entire vaxport idea is actually being driven by the need to use up a surplus of tests and avert Audit Office criticism for colossal waste of money? Testing being offered up as the “alternative” for the unvaccinated?
    Those choosing not to be vaccinated are hardly likely to stick their hand up for shoving a cotton bud up their noses twice a week are they?
    Ultimately those choosing not to be vaccinated are peoppe are also very unlikely to be going to those places the government say need passports to operate.
    Ah now, I'm not sure about that. Whetherspoons, nightclubs?
    Wetherspoons, even?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    justin124 said:

    I am not scientific but am surprised how dire things have become again in Europre re- Covid. Whilst vaccination levels lag well behind the UK , they have now reached the 10% - 15% range - which is surely comparable to our own levels at the beginning of February. From memory, I thought conditions here were improving by that time.

    But we were more than a month into a lockdown. See also Portugal.
    It was the lockdown which suppressed the cases dramatically. Vaccines on the end of it finished it off.*
    *Fingers crossed.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934

    Starmer would be insane to back the vaccine passports

    Well, he's sitting on the fence at the moment waiting to see which way the wind blows.
    Yes, though, to be fair, so is Boris.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mortimer said:

    I want all covid restrictions, save perhaps vax certificates for overseas travel, gone by mid June.

    No masks; no “distanced dining”, nothing.

    The risk is literally vanishing in front of our eyes.

    But, It feels like I’m in a very small minority.

    I'm with you sir.

    We need to take back control of life from the public health obsessives.
    I wanted them gone by mid-June or earlier ... 2020.

    An unexpected letter has appeared in the BMJ from an NHS consultant

    https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n810/rr-14

    "Nevertheless, what I am currently struggling with is the failure to report the reality of the morbidity caused by our current vaccination program within the health service and staff population. The levels of sickness after vaccination is unprecedented and staff are getting very sick and some with neurological symptoms which is having a huge impact on the health service function. Even the young and healthy are off for days, some for weeks, and some requiring medical treatment. Whole teams are being taken out as they went to get vaccinated together."

    It doesn't surprise me in the slightest but I think if this gets into the MSM the public will feel they've had the wool pulled over their eyes. (They have, compared to other countries.)

    Patients should have been advised individually as far as possible how the risks stack up. Probably get the treatment if aged 75 and in poor health. But if aged 25 and healthy, the risk of serious injury from the vaccine is set to exceed the risk of serious illness from COVID-19 so it's stupid. The mortality risk from this virus rises steeply with advancing age, very different from flu.
    Over the several dozen posters who have been vaccinated I’ve seen 3-4 reporting feeling very under the weather for 24 hours but nothing worse. I guess we all must be very lucky
  • Mortimer said:

    I want all covid restrictions, save perhaps vax certificates for overseas travel, gone by mid June.

    No masks; no “distanced dining”, nothing.

    The risk is literally vanishing in front of our eyes.

    But, It feels like I’m in a very small minority.

    I'm with you sir.

    We need to take back control of life from the public health obsessives.
    I wanted them gone by mid-June or earlier ... 2020.

    An unexpected letter has appeared in the BMJ from an NHS consultant

    https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n810/rr-14

    "Nevertheless, what I am currently struggling with is the failure to report the reality of the morbidity caused by our current vaccination program within the health service and staff population. The levels of sickness after vaccination is unprecedented and staff are getting very sick and some with neurological symptoms which is having a huge impact on the health service function. Even the young and healthy are off for days, some for weeks, and some requiring medical treatment. Whole teams are being taken out as they went to get vaccinated together."

    It doesn't surprise me in the slightest but I think if this gets into the MSM the public will feel they've had the wool pulled over their eyes. (They have, compared to other countries.)

    Patients should have been advised individually as far as possible how the risks stack up. Probably get the treatment if aged 75 and in poor health. But if aged 25 and healthy, the risk of serious injury from the vaccine is set to exceed the risk of serious illness from COVID-19 so it's stupid. The mortality risk from this virus rises steeply with advancing age, very different from flu.
    Nonsense. What you call a "letter" is simply a "rapid response", which is the journal's terminology for a below-the-line internet comment in response to one of their proper articles. It is unedited and unverified and we don't even know that the writer, who claims to be a consultant, is anything of the sort.

    If "whole teams" of NHS staff were off after vaccination, or the other baseless claims in the comment were true, we would hear much about it. It isn't true. Most people have no side effects or feel grotty for 24-48 hours. If it were the case that for people aged 25 the risk from the vaccine exceeds the risk of COVID, then it would not have been licensed for them. It isn't true.

    --AS
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    sarissa said:

    What have people been watching over the holidays? I watched The Maruetanian today (Cumberpatch, Jodie Foster, on Amazon Prime) and can see why it got a Gloden Globe award and 5 Bafta nominations. Based on a true story of a lawyer seeking a fair trial for a Guantansmo detainee - I won't give the ending away, but it preserves an element of ambiguity throughout and isn't jjust a sort of Mr Smith Goes to Court movie. Foster is excellent.

    The Morning Show on AppleTV. It’s superb so far.
    Late introduction to Peaky Blinders for me, and I was quickly hooked.
    The Morning Show outs Jennifer Aniston as a great actress. Not sure she has ever been stretched before in her long career.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    sarissa said:

    What have people been watching over the holidays? I watched The Maruetanian today (Cumberpatch, Jodie Foster, on Amazon Prime) and can see why it got a Gloden Globe award and 5 Bafta nominations. Based on a true story of a lawyer seeking a fair trial for a Guantansmo detainee - I won't give the ending away, but it preserves an element of ambiguity throughout and isn't jjust a sort of Mr Smith Goes to Court movie. Foster is excellent.

    The Morning Show on AppleTV. It’s superb so far.
    Late introduction to Peaky Blinders for me, and I was quickly hooked.
    The Morning Show outs Jennifer Aniston as a great actress. Not sure she has ever been stretched before in her long career.
    Erm. I thought her Rachel was a superbly observed portrayal of a ...Rachel. I've met a few like her.
    By some way the best acting in Friends.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    I want all covid restrictions, save perhaps vax certificates for overseas travel, gone by mid June.

    No masks; no “distanced dining”, nothing.

    The risk is literally vanishing in front of our eyes.

    But, It feels like I’m in a very small minority.

    I'm with you sir.

    We need to take back control of life from the public health obsessives.
    I wanted them gone by mid-June or earlier ... 2020.

    An unexpected letter has appeared in the BMJ from an NHS consultant

    https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n810/rr-14

    "Nevertheless, what I am currently struggling with is the failure to report the reality of the morbidity caused by our current vaccination program within the health service and staff population. The levels of sickness after vaccination is unprecedented and staff are getting very sick and some with neurological symptoms which is having a huge impact on the health service function. Even the young and healthy are off for days, some for weeks, and some requiring medical treatment. Whole teams are being taken out as they went to get vaccinated together."

    It doesn't surprise me in the slightest but I think if this gets into the MSM the public will feel they've had the wool pulled over their eyes. (They have, compared to other countries.)

    Patients should have been advised individually as far as possible how the risks stack up. Probably get the treatment if aged 75 and in poor health. But if aged 25 and healthy, the risk of serious injury from the vaccine is set to exceed the risk of serious illness from COVID-19 so it's stupid. The mortality risk from this virus rises steeply with advancing age, very different from flu.
    Over the several dozen posters who have been vaccinated I’ve seen 3-4 reporting feeling very under the weather for 24 hours but nothing worse. I guess we all must be very lucky
    If you read the rest of the letter, it puts the anecdotal observations in a considerably less convincing context.
    For example, there are six months of longitudinal data for vaccines, not three, and Pfizer and Moderna will shortly seek full approval, rather than emergency authorisation in the US.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    For @Morris_Dancer , an illustration of what is meant by weather, as opposed to climate.
    https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1378617128643932160
  • Ally_B1Ally_B1 Posts: 46

    Mortimer said:

    I want all covid restrictions, save perhaps vax certificates for overseas travel, gone by mid June.

    No masks; no “distanced dining”, nothing.

    The risk is literally vanishing in front of our eyes.

    But, It feels like I’m in a very small minority.

    I'm with you sir.

    We need to take back control of life from the public health obsessives.
    I wanted them gone by mid-June or earlier ... 2020.

    An unexpected letter has appeared in the BMJ from an NHS consultant

    https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n810/rr-14

    "Nevertheless, what I am currently struggling with is the failure to report the reality of the morbidity caused by our current vaccination program within the health service and staff population. The levels of sickness after vaccination is unprecedented and staff are getting very sick and some with neurological symptoms which is having a huge impact on the health service function. Even the young and healthy are off for days, some for weeks, and some requiring medical treatment. Whole teams are being taken out as they went to get vaccinated together."

    It doesn't surprise me in the slightest but I think if this gets into the MSM the public will feel they've had the wool pulled over their eyes. (They have, compared to other countries.)

    Patients should have been advised individually as far as possible how the risks stack up. Probably get the treatment if aged 75 and in poor health. But if aged 25 and healthy, the risk of serious injury from the vaccine is set to exceed the risk of serious illness from COVID-19 so it's stupid. The mortality risk from this virus rises steeply with advancing age, very different from flu.
    Nonsense. What you call a "letter" is simply a "rapid response", which is the journal's terminology for a below-the-line internet comment in response to one of their proper articles. It is unedited and unverified and we don't even know that the writer, who claims to be a consultant, is anything of the sort.

    If "whole teams" of NHS staff were off after vaccination, or the other baseless claims in the comment were true, we would hear much about it. It isn't true. Most people have no side effects or feel grotty for 24-48 hours. If it were the case that for people aged 25 the risk from the vaccine exceeds the risk of COVID, then it would not have been licensed for them. It isn't true.

    --AS
    I think this is a problem with the internet. People post comments which are almost certainly untrue and others then repost without any attempt to verify at source. No offence intended, my wife does this and I spend a lot of time attempting to show her that the original post was from a liar. (Now that Trump is no longer in the White House I have a much better life). I know of no one who had an adverse reaction to vaccination whether it was the Phizer or AZ vaccine. I have had two Phizer jabs and my shoulder was tender for two days and that was it. When I had the flu jab last November my shoulder was tender for four days so AFAIAC the Corvid vaccine is much better than that one!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789


    I wanted them gone by mid-June or earlier ... 2020.

    An unexpected letter has appeared in the BMJ from an NHS consultant

    https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n810/rr-14

    The person writing that sounds a bit unhinged. Does anyone seriously think our vaccination programme is "firmly in the realms of a totalitarian Nazi dystopia"?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Nigelb said:
    Suicides usually decline in times of crisis or war.
This discussion has been closed.