When the UK made its decision to switch to a first dose strategy I thought it was a brave and wise decision that other countries would see succeeds and follow us in doing.
But it seems that having written it off as the 'eccentric Brits' doing their own thing, that even seeing deaths down 97% and us rapidly approaching herd immunity, nowhere seems to want to admit we got this right and change their own strategies.
The USA perhaps is far enough down its own path it mightn't make sense to change, but that's not the case in the EU and elsewhere.
Has anywhere else yet adopted the first dose strategy besides the UK?
With the supply of vaccines increasing, maybe it's now no longer necessary.
Moving to a strategy of
- 12 weeks between doses - not stockpiling the second doses - targeting the elderly first, with a 75% assumed "accuracy rate"
Would probably double Europes vaccination rate, if adopted.
Does anyone know yet what's happening with the AZ vaccine doses manufactured at the Halix plant in the Netherlands, that the UK was reported to have paid for and was supposed to be at the centre of the EU's latest temper tantrum a couple of weeks ago?
There were said to be UK/EU negotiations on what would happen with those doses, but not heard any news on that yet? Would be good to get more supply that we paid for.
Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."
@isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.
The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"
Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.
The reality, Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson.
It is a good thing that wiki has the data & we don't have to rely on your Cantab brain:
Keir Starmer ... 5.35 Adam Price ... 4.34 Mark Drakeford ... 4.018 Boris Johnson ... 4.014 Ed Davey ... 3.7 Jane Dodds ... 3.617 Mark Reckless .... 2.62 Neil Hamilton .. .2.2
Notice Starmer has significantly higher approval ratings than Drakeford in Wales, corroborating my suggestion that Doomford may be acting as a drag on the Labour vote.
I am not quite sure why Drakeford and Johnson's approval is given to 4 significant figures, but they are pretty much equal given the accuracy of the data. Your statement that "Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson" is clearly incorrect.
Most of the data predates the vaccine bounce as well.
And how do you deal with statistical fluctuations/systematic error in a single poll?
You look at all the polling. As the wiki page does.
I do look at more than one poll.
You were wrong, I specifically said leader ratings, you cited the like/dislike figures which are entirely different.
My figures are from a regular series of polls about Wales, this isn't a one off, Drakeford led Johnson in the previous poll when the leadership question was asked.
The wiki page is entitled "Leadership approval opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd elections"
What do you think like/dislike means?
I know you had the prettiest romance with David Cameron, but the rest of us are not going on a swooning date with our political leaders.
Like/dislike means like their leadership/dislike their leadership.
As anyone with a brain knows Wikipedia is not the ultimate authority on facts. Somebody at my work who cites Wikipedia gets laughed at.
Leader ratings are a much better ratings, as Sir Bob Worcester pointed out for most of Margaret Thatcher's premiership she was heavily and widely disliked, but when you looked at her leader ratings it was clear she was going to win in 1983 and 1987, comfortably.
Never cite Wikipedia. But you can do worse than going to Wikipedia and citing its own citations.
I use Wikipedia a lot to find out where to start reading.
Just like Stackoverflow - if you unquestioningly take it as Truth, a disaster waiting to happen. "A place to start reading" is a very good way of describing their useful function.
Given Good Friday, that's unsurprisingly occured today.
Yes, that kinda makes sense. I do hope we pick up again next week. We are so close to the point Israel reached a month ago, when Covid, for them, fell away
Today Israel has reported 136 new cases, and 4 deaths. Covid has essentially disappeared
Reports that Brazilian variant is increasingly spreading in Canada, is comparable in transmissibility to U.K. variant AND appears far more dangerous to younger age groups...
Reports that Brazilian variant is increasingly spreading in Canada, is comparable in transmissibility to U.K. variant AND appears far more dangerous to younger age groups...
Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."
@isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.
The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"
Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.
I only say he is a fun sponge because he is forced to play the role of a nagger to a more popular, more likeable rival - he cant take him on in bluster, humour etc so is always seen to be a fun sponge. I doubt he is as boring in real life as he seems in his day job, but it's probably the only thing he can do against Boris - go for total contrast and hope that people prefer a serious, earnest looking PM.
Another reason he has to be deadly serious and rigid all the time is to contrast himself with his predecessor. I think his problem there is the things people liked about Jez were his passion and conviction, Starmer has tried to not be seen to resemble Corbyn at all and he just seems dull by comparison.
Reports that Brazilian variant is increasingly spreading in Canada, is comparable in transmissibility to U.K. variant AND appears far more dangerous to younger age groups...
And just 10 deaths. But there is some ambiguity as some of the stats appear to be England only, coz Easter.
You can expect some more 'low' numbers tomorrow, and on Tuesday, which reports on Monday.
Be aware of a relatively large deaths figure coming on Wed which will reflect those which might have been reported on Friday or Tuesday if it wasn't Easter.
We will have a clearer and more reliable idea of trends early the following week, expect the 7 day deaths rate to be around 200 then, and cases maybe 20,000 - 25,000 for the same 7 days. You might see a lower 7 day deaths rate early next week but it is likely to reverse out to an extent Wed/Thur next week.
Given Good Friday, that's unsurprisingly occured today.
"Don't tell 'im Pike!!!!!".
Bank Holiday effects are top secret - just like Weekend effects.
I sometimes wonder if Leon missed his calling. Surely some enterprising publisher somewhere could see the talent in his arresting prose and encourage him to write thrillers perhaps? Alternatively, when times are better, to embellish the pages of quotidian newspapers with descriptions of far flung wonders.
I think the swing away from Welsh Labour is inexorable.
Since 1970, Wales has swung 10% from Labour to Conservative, compared to a swing of 3.5% across the UK as a whole. Of course, in London, Merseyside, and university seats, the swing has been in the other direction.
The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop
Vaccines and lockdowns work.
WHO KNEW?
Nobody.
No one *knew* for sure that vaccines would be invented - many said it was impossible - and we couldn't be certain how well they would work.
Wonderfully, fantastically, gloriously they have been invented, and manufactured, at mind-boggling speed, and they work damn well. This is a near miracle. We should note it regularly.
I think you are wrong on this. The advances in genomics, proteomics and synthetic biology are such that people knew, as well as anything in science can be known, that a global effort the size launched by the pharma industry and a couple of governments would produce at least one good vaccine and probably more. The speed, number of successes and effectiveness of most of the efforts is stunning, though.
Hmm. I remember talking to some expert scientists - biologists, academics, epidemiologists - and they were very pessimistic about a quick vaccine. Some said ‘never’. And all were unsure of their efficacy against a still-puzzling enemy
I am sure some people placed at a particular nexus - like you? - had a more positive hunch. I also remember Charles, who has expertise here, being encouragingly optimistic and bullish. He was right, and bravo to you both
But for the rest of us anxious laymen, confronted with different yet authoritative opinions, we did not and could not know
The virus was sequenced on 10 January 2020. A vaccine that is being pumped into American arms, and soon ours, was invented by Moderna on 15 January 2020. So Charles was right to be opitimistic. I’m not sure what date the lamented Eadric started blowing his horn in alarm but I think it was after 15 January, by which time the cavalry was already saddling up. Throughout this the immunologists I have been reading have been far more optimistic than the epidemiologists.
And yet, other experts did speak differently. eg I talked to one lady who is - let us say - very high in Public Health England. She told me in early 2020 that we would probably get vaccines but they would take 2-3 years at best, possibly a lot longer. And she was not completely confident they would work that well.
I haven't spoken to her since but getting several excellent vaccines from inception to distribution and into arms, in less than a year, must utterly amaze her. Certainly amazes me
These are the same people saying the vaccine passports are a necessity as well. They are all extremely and unnecessarily pessimistic about this. They live for the worst case scenario and rubes such as yourself who buy it.
I've said vaxports - other than for international travel - should be voluntary, sector by sector, firm by firm. I do not agree with making them compulsory within the UK
If businesses think they will help encourage cautious customers - eg theatres - they should be allowed to impose them
My strategy is eminently sensible and will benefit the economy. I know I am extremely important and influential, but it's not actually my fault if the government makes a silly mistake
Sensible free market solution.
I don't think any of us anti vaxport people have said businesses shouldn't be allowed to choose to do so its all largely we object to it being mandatory for the business
Seriously though, the boat race should be for undergraduates only.
I agree, I haven't followed it much this year, but the post graduates are they the undergraduates from last year who didn't get the opportunity to race?
My God, Cambrdigeshire is flat and utterly boring.
The fens, the flat lands and the east - from north of Cambridge to Lincoln, and where Cambs, Lincs and Norfolk meet, and beyond must be the most under appreciated, under visited and magnificent part of England. so much of its charm is that there is so much and no-one goes there. Secret England. Dorothy L Sayers 'Nine Tailors' captures it well.
Seriously though, the boat race should be for undergraduates only.
I agree, I haven't followed it much this year, but the post graduates are they the undergraduates from last year who didn't get the opportunity to race?
I'm not sure, but it's not like uni challenge where special dispensation has been given to allow contestants to compete post graduation.
My God, Cambrdigeshire is flat and utterly boring.
The fens, the flat lands and the east - from north of Cambridge to Lincoln, and where Cambs, Lincs and Norfolk meet, and beyond must be the most under appreciated, under visited and magnificent part of England. so much of its charm is that there is so much and no-one goes there. Secret England. Dorothy L Sayers 'Nine Tailors' captures it well.
She writes about it being bleak, unpopulated, a ‘howling wilderness’ and constantly snowing or raining leading to periodic floods.
Doesn’t sound terribly attractive, TBF. If the Norfolk Tourist Board paid her for that, they should ask for their money back.
The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop
Vaccines and lockdowns work.
WHO KNEW?
Nobody.
No one *knew* for sure that vaccines would be invented - many said it was impossible - and we couldn't be certain how well they would work.
Wonderfully, fantastically, gloriously they have been invented, and manufactured, at mind-boggling speed, and they work damn well. This is a near miracle. We should note it regularly.
I think you are wrong on this. The advances in genomics, proteomics and synthetic biology are such that people knew, as well as anything in science can be known, that a global effort the size launched by the pharma industry and a couple of governments would produce at least one good vaccine and probably more. The speed, number of successes and effectiveness of most of the efforts is stunning, though.
Hmm. I remember talking to some expert scientists - biologists, academics, epidemiologists - and they were very pessimistic about a quick vaccine. Some said ‘never’. And all were unsure of their efficacy against a still-puzzling enemy
I am sure some people placed at a particular nexus - like you? - had a more positive hunch. I also remember Charles, who has expertise here, being encouragingly optimistic and bullish. He was right, and bravo to you both
But for the rest of us anxious laymen, confronted with different yet authoritative opinions, we did not and could not know
The virus was sequenced on 10 January 2020. A vaccine that is being pumped into American arms, and soon ours, was invented by Moderna on 15 January 2020. So Charles was right to be opitimistic. I’m not sure what date the lamented Eadric started blowing his horn in alarm but I think it was after 15 January, by which time the cavalry was already saddling up. Throughout this the immunologists I have been reading have been far more optimistic than the epidemiologists.
And yet, other experts did speak differently. eg I talked to one lady who is - let us say - very high in Public Health England. She told me in early 2020 that we would probably get vaccines but they would take 2-3 years at best, possibly a lot longer. And she was not completely confident they would work that well.
I haven't spoken to her since but getting several excellent vaccines from inception to distribution and into arms, in less than a year, must utterly amaze her. Certainly amazes me
These are the same people saying the vaccine passports are a necessity as well. They are all extremely and unnecessarily pessimistic about this. They live for the worst case scenario and rubes such as yourself who buy it.
I've said vaxports - other than for international travel - should be voluntary, sector by sector, firm by firm. I do not agree with making them compulsory within the UK
If businesses think they will help encourage cautious customers - eg theatres - they should be allowed to impose them
My strategy is eminently sensible and will benefit the economy. I know I am extremely important and influential, but it's not actually my fault if the government makes a silly mistake
Sensible free market solution.
I don't think any of us anti vaxport people have said businesses shouldn't be allowed to choose to do so its all largely we object to it being mandatory for the business
Not on this site so much but quite a few people elsewhere have said businesses shouldn't be allowed to "discriminate" based on vaccine status.
Age related data scaled to 100k population per age group
Does that top graph suggest 2nd dose is having a massive positive impact on the oldies ?
I would say that the effect is clearer in the CFR graphs (below) - things have started to move down again in the last couple of weeks.
Another thing to consider is that studies (such as the Edinburgh one) showed the increase in antibodies, after the first vaccination, was slower for old people - taking quite a few weeks to peak.
My God, Cambrdigeshire is flat and utterly boring.
The fens, the flat lands and the east - from north of Cambridge to Lincoln, and where Cambs, Lincs and Norfolk meet, and beyond must be the most under appreciated, under visited and magnificent part of England. so much of its charm is that there is so much and no-one goes there. Secret England. Dorothy L Sayers 'Nine Tailors' captures it well.
She writes about it being bleak, unpopulated, a ‘howling wilderness’ and constantly snowing or raining leading to periodic floods.
Doesn’t sound terribly attractive, TBF. If the Norfolk Tourist Board paid her for that, they should ask for their money back.
There is a Boston-based restaurant chain called Legal Sea Foods. Unfortunately, their most local restaurant has closed. It used to have lovely prints of the Broads with the fish/seafood and fishing boats of the region, perhaps from between WWs. Made me want to go.
Seriously though, the boat race should be for undergraduates only.
I agree, I haven't followed it much this year, but the post graduates are they the undergraduates from last year who didn't get the opportunity to race?
One advantage of the professionalisation of rowing training is that the international rowers (2K of flat water as standard) don't want to try the Boat Race. Which in the past led to some quite funny contortions to get as many Olympic rowers in the boats as could be squeezed in Agricultural Science or similar.
I think peak comedy was achieved when they tried to get Steve Redgrave to do a degree from Oxford....
Seriously though, the boat race should be for undergraduates only.
I agree, I haven't followed it much this year, but the post graduates are they the undergraduates from last year who didn't get the opportunity to race?
One advantage of the professionalisation of rowing training is that the international rowers (2K of flat water as standard) don't want to try the Boat Race. Which in the past led to some quite funny contortions to get as many Olympic rowers in the boats as could be squeezed in Agricultural Science or similar.
I think peak comedy was achieved when they tried to get Steve Redgrave to do a degree from Oxford....
Seriously though, the boat race should be for undergraduates only.
I agree, I haven't followed it much this year, but the post graduates are they the undergraduates from last year who didn't get the opportunity to race?
One advantage of the professionalisation of rowing training is that the international rowers (2K of flat water as standard) don't want to try the Boat Race. Which in the past led to some quite funny contortions to get as many Olympic rowers in the boats as could be squeezed in Agricultural Science or similar.
I think peak comedy was achieved when they tried to get Steve Redgrave to do a degree from Oxford....
My God, Cambrdigeshire is flat and utterly boring.
The fens, the flat lands and the east - from north of Cambridge to Lincoln, and where Cambs, Lincs and Norfolk meet, and beyond must be the most under appreciated, under visited and magnificent part of England. so much of its charm is that there is so much and no-one goes there. Secret England. Dorothy L Sayers 'Nine Tailors' captures it well.
She writes about it being bleak, unpopulated, a ‘howling wilderness’ and constantly snowing or raining leading to periodic floods.
Doesn’t sound terribly attractive, TBF. If the Norfolk Tourist Board paid her for that, they should ask for their money back.
Probably just set in Lincolnshire - but unclear. The landscape writer of the patch is Edward Storey - well worth looking at. DLS's novel is well worth reading - some think it among the greatest detective stories regardless of geography. Pop into Walpole St Peter or West Walton churches sometime - if you can find them. Unbelievable.
For a century in Wales Labour have overperformed and under delivered, from Town Councils to the Senedd. Everywhere I go there is disaffection for Labour, and remarkably a great love for a posh Etonian Conservative. I am not convinced that the Welsh love the Conservative Party but they like to see a grafter in a hi-viz coat, so they adore Boris Johnson.
In the days of Jim Griffiths and Denzil Davies, the Labour vote in Llanelli could be weighed rather than counted. A donkey in a red rosette could have won, and in Denzil's day it did. Hell will have frozen over when Llanelli return a Tory. It is cold in Wales today.
Seriously though, the boat race should be for undergraduates only.
I agree, I haven't followed it much this year, but the post graduates are they the undergraduates from last year who didn't get the opportunity to race?
One advantage of the professionalisation of rowing training is that the international rowers (2K of flat water as standard) don't want to try the Boat Race. Which in the past led to some quite funny contortions to get as many Olympic rowers in the boats as could be squeezed in Agricultural Science or similar.
I think peak comedy was achieved when they tried to get Steve Redgrave to do a degree from Oxford....
For a century in Wales Labour have overperformed and under delivered, from Town Councils to the Senedd. Everywhere I go there is disaffection for Labour, and remarkably a great love for a posh Etonian Conservative. I am not convinced that the Welsh love the Conservative Party but they like to see a grafter in a hi-viz coat, so they adore Boris Johnson.
In the days of Jim Griffiths and Denzil Davies, the Labour vote in Llanelli could be weighed rather than counted. A donkey in a red rosette could have won, and in Denzil's day it did. Hell will have frozen over when Llanelli return a Tory. It is cold in Wales today.
I know Llanelli, a little. If Labour can't even hold territory like that then it is finished as a majority party under the current system: I don't see it making enough progress outside of London to reverse the electoral map and start winning large numbers of seats from the Tories in Southern England.
Most likely Labour will have to rely on reducing the Tories to largest single party in a Hung Parliament and ramming through PR at the head of a rainbow coalition. If Scotland falls off before that happens then they may never get the chance.
Gym near me on the south bank is already open, pitched up a massive tent so it is "outside" and doing classes for 25-30 at a time. Surprised it is allowed, if it is.
For a century in Wales Labour have overperformed and under delivered, from Town Councils to the Senedd. Everywhere I go there is disaffection for Labour, and remarkably a great love for a posh Etonian Conservative. I am not convinced that the Welsh love the Conservative Party but they like to see a grafter in a hi-viz coat, so they adore Boris Johnson.
In the days of Jim Griffiths and Denzil Davies, the Labour vote in Llanelli could be weighed rather than counted. A donkey in a red rosette could have won, and in Denzil's day it did. Hell will have frozen over when Llanelli return a Tory. It is cold in Wales today.
I know Llanelli, a little. If Labour can't even hold territory like that then it is finished as a majority party under the current system: I don't see it making enough progress outside of London to reverse the electoral map and start winning large numbers of seats from the Tories in Southern England.
Most likely Labour will have to rely on reducing the Tories to largest single party in a Hung Parliament and ramming through PR at the head of a rainbow coalition. If Scotland falls off before that happens then they may never get the chance.
That's what we were saying in the late 80s about Labour, and the Conservatives in the 2000s. Governments lose election. Quite who this Government lose to is debateable, most likely Labour, but it could be a Tommy Robinson vehicle. At some point they will nonetheless lose.
My God, Cambrdigeshire is flat and utterly boring.
The fens, the flat lands and the east - from north of Cambridge to Lincoln, and where Cambs, Lincs and Norfolk meet, and beyond must be the most under appreciated, under visited and magnificent part of England. so much of its charm is that there is so much and no-one goes there. Secret England. Dorothy L Sayers 'Nine Tailors' captures it well.
She writes about it being bleak, unpopulated, a ‘howling wilderness’ and constantly snowing or raining leading to periodic floods.
Doesn’t sound terribly attractive, TBF. If the Norfolk Tourist Board paid her for that, they should ask for their money back.
Probably just set in Lincolnshire - but unclear. The landscape writer of the patch is Edward Storey - well worth looking at. DLS's novel is well worth reading - some think it among the greatest detective stories regardless of geography. Pop into Walpole St Peter or West Walton churches sometime - if you can find them. Unbelievable.
I think it is Lincolshire. Vague memory that the French refer to it as 'the coast of Lancollne'. I think that's as specific as it gets.
The UK’s challenging vaccine target, 32m first doses by April 15, will be met next week. A week early
Impressive
It may already have been met but we're in the middle of Easter reporting delays. For example my brother in law (34) got his invite for a first dose, he has no pre-existing conditions and isn't a key worker or carer or anything like that.
I contacted my GP surgery that I've registered with an I was told that my age group will be contacted "within two weeks".
I think the swing away from Welsh Labour is inexorable.
Since 1970, Wales has swung 10% from Labour to Conservative, compared to a swing of 3.5% across the UK as a whole. Of course, in London, Merseyside, and university seats, the swing has been in the other direction.
I think the swing away from Welsh Labour is inexorable.
Since 1970, Wales has swung 10% from Labour to Conservative, compared to a swing of 3.5% across the UK as a whole. Of course, in London, Merseyside, and university seats, the swing has been in the other direction.
1970 itself actually saw a below average swing against Labour compared with the GB average.February 1974 did see a swing to the Tories due to the Liberal revival being disproportionately at Labour's expense there -with the party also losing seats to Plaid for the first time at a GE with defeats in Caernarvon and Merionethin North Wales.Not much change in October 1974 with some swing from Tory to Labour - but the party lost Carmarthen again to Plaid's Gwynfor Evans. 1979 saw a dramatic increase in the Tory vote in rural Wales - in seats such as Cardigan, Carmarthen, Montgomery and Brecon & Radnor. It rather sensationally gained Anglesey - with the Brighton barrister Keith Best winning on a massive swing.The Tory advance in Carmarthen was at Plaid's expense and helped Labour take back the seat. I have never been very clear in my mind as to what caused that surge in Tory support in seats such as Montgomery - where the Liberal Emlyn Hooson was defeated - , Cardigan and Carmarthen. Prior to 1979 the latter two seats had regularly seen lost Tory deposits - when the required threshold was 12.5% - yet in that year the Tories were within striking distance of winning both seats. I have wondered whether the very heavy defeat = 80% to 20% - of Devolution in the Referendum held on March 1st two months earlier may have been a significant influence. The Tories had spearheaded the No campaign - though that remains pure speculation on my part.
For a century in Wales Labour have overperformed and under delivered, from Town Councils to the Senedd. Everywhere I go there is disaffection for Labour, and remarkably a great love for a posh Etonian Conservative. I am not convinced that the Welsh love the Conservative Party but they like to see a grafter in a hi-viz coat, so they adore Boris Johnson.
In the days of Jim Griffiths and Denzil Davies, the Labour vote in Llanelli could be weighed rather than counted. A donkey in a red rosette could have won, and in Denzil's day it did. Hell will have frozen over when Llanelli return a Tory. It is cold in Wales today.
I know Llanelli, a little. If Labour can't even hold territory like that then it is finished as a majority party under the current system: I don't see it making enough progress outside of London to reverse the electoral map and start winning large numbers of seats from the Tories in Southern England.
Most likely Labour will have to rely on reducing the Tories to largest single party in a Hung Parliament and ramming through PR at the head of a rainbow coalition. If Scotland falls off before that happens then they may never get the chance.
I just realised that I have an election here for our County Councillor.
Interesting motivational barchart in the flyer.
These people used to be Lib Dems.
Maybe if the LDs called themselves Ash Independents they could prepare for government.
Historical issues, and more to dodge the Lib Dem EU policy problem in the red wall. Local Lib Dem Coucillors wiped themselves out for quite a distance in 2019.
I just realised that I have an election here for our County Councillor.
Interesting motivational barchart in the flyer.
These people used to be Lib Dems.
Maybe if the LDs called themselves Ash Independents they could prepare for government.
To be accurate, Jason Zadrozny was a Liberal Democrat - I can't speak for anyone else in the party. They dominate Ashfield District Council and have representation on other authorities.
Not to be confused, as I managed it, with Ashford Independents in Kent, who have a solid presence on Ashford Borough Council.
The section on boundaries has an error I'm afraid. In the abandoned review, which would have cut the total seats to 600, Wales would have got 28 in total. In the current review, Wales will get 32 seats. The entitlements are as follows:
The UK’s challenging vaccine target, 32m first doses by April 15, will be met next week. A week early
Impressive
It may already have been met but we're in the middle of Easter reporting delays. For example my brother in law (34) got his invite for a first dose, he has no pre-existing conditions and isn't a key worker or carer or anything like that.
I contacted my GP surgery that I've registered with an I was told that my age group will be contacted "within two weeks".
Excellent news. Looks like jabs will speed up again later in April. As you predicted, IIRC
I guess we've seen the last of the "fully vaccinated" graphs from Comedy Dave:
Wrong types of vaccines....Comedy Dave will be doing new charts only including Pfizer / Moderna usage.
Wrong dosing schedule. We need a chart of 2nd vaccines given no more than 4 weeks apart. And I bet the UK is way, way behind every country in the EU in the number of EU citizens it has vaccinated.
For a century in Wales Labour have overperformed and under delivered, from Town Councils to the Senedd. Everywhere I go there is disaffection for Labour, and remarkably a great love for a posh Etonian Conservative. I am not convinced that the Welsh love the Conservative Party but they like to see a grafter in a hi-viz coat, so they adore Boris Johnson.
In the days of Jim Griffiths and Denzil Davies, the Labour vote in Llanelli could be weighed rather than counted. A donkey in a red rosette could have won, and in Denzil's day it did. Hell will have frozen over when Llanelli return a Tory. It is cold in Wales today.
I know Llanelli, a little. If Labour can't even hold territory like that then it is finished as a majority party under the current system: I don't see it making enough progress outside of London to reverse the electoral map and start winning large numbers of seats from the Tories in Southern England.
Most likely Labour will have to rely on reducing the Tories to largest single party in a Hung Parliament and ramming through PR at the head of a rainbow coalition. If Scotland falls off before that happens then they may never get the chance.
I wouldn't be so concerned about Plaid hiccups (they've also won the Rhondda at assembly level, of course.) I'm talking about the Conservatives getting their teeth into it - like they've already done with almost all Labour's former Commons seats in the North. It goes without saying that there's not much future for Labour if it ends up as a rump party for core cities, ethnic minorities and students.
My God, Cambrdigeshire is flat and utterly boring.
The fens, the flat lands and the east - from north of Cambridge to Lincoln, and where Cambs, Lincs and Norfolk meet, and beyond must be the most under appreciated, under visited and magnificent part of England. so much of its charm is that there is so much and no-one goes there. Secret England. Dorothy L Sayers 'Nine Tailors' captures it well.
She writes about it being bleak, unpopulated, a ‘howling wilderness’ and constantly snowing or raining leading to periodic floods.
Doesn’t sound terribly attractive, TBF. If the Norfolk Tourist Board paid her for that, they should ask for their money back.
There is a Boston-based restaurant chain called Legal Sea Foods. Unfortunately, their most local restaurant has closed. It used to have lovely prints of the Broads with the fish/seafood and fishing boats of the region, perhaps from between WWs. Made me want to go.
Personally, I quite like the fens. If you can get a bit of elevation - like, the bank of a drainage ditch - you can see for absolutely miles.
Wales leans Brexit because its population is more elderly and less educated than that of the UK as a whole. Adjust for age and education, and Wales actually leaned remain compared to an equivalent population in England.
The UK’s challenging vaccine target, 32m first doses by April 15, will be met next week. A week early
Impressive
It may already have been met but we're in the middle of Easter reporting delays. For example my brother in law (34) got his invite for a first dose, he has no pre-existing conditions and isn't a key worker or carer or anything like that.
I contacted my GP surgery that I've registered with an I was told that my age group will be contacted "within two weeks".
34?! The postcode lottery is becoming more and more pronounced it would seem.
I think the swing away from Welsh Labour is inexorable.
Since 1970, Wales has swung 10% from Labour to Conservative, compared to a swing of 3.5% across the UK as a whole. Of course, in London, Merseyside, and university seats, the swing has been in the other direction.
I think the swing away from Welsh Labour is inexorable.
Since 1970, Wales has swung 10% from Labour to Conservative, compared to a swing of 3.5% across the UK as a whole. Of course, in London, Merseyside, and university seats, the swing has been in the other direction.
1970 itself actually saw a below average swing against Labour compared with the GB average.February 1974 did see a swing to the Tories due to the Liberal revival being disproportionately at Labour's expense there -with the party also losing seats to Plaid for the first time at a GE with defeats in Caernarvon and Merionethin North Wales.Not much change in October 1974 with some swing from Tory to Labour - but the party lost Carmarthen again to Plaid's Gwynfor Evans. 1979 saw a dramatic increase in the Tory vote in rural Wales - in seats such as Cardigan, Carmarthen, Montgomery and Brecon & Radnor. It rather sensationally gained Anglesey - with the Brighton barrister Keith Best winning on a massive swing.The Tory advance in Carmarthen was at Plaid's expense and helped Labour take back the seat. I have never been very clear in my mind as to what caused that surge in Tory support in seats such as Montgomery - where the Liberal Emlyn Hooson was defeated - , Cardigan and Carmarthen. Prior to 1979 the latter two seats had regularly seen lost Tory deposits - when the required threshold was 12.5% - yet in that year the Tories were within striking distance of winning both seats. I have wondered whether the very heavy defeat = 80% to 20% - of Devolution in the Referendum held on March 1st two months earlier may have been a significant influence. The Tories had spearheaded the No campaign - though that remains pure speculation on my part.
Hooson lost Montgomery in 1979 because of Jeremy Thorpe.
The rural Nonconformist vote was the backbone of the old Liberals in that part of the world.
To them, "Bunnies" only meant small mammals in the family Leporidae of the order Lagomorpha.
I just realised that I have an election here for our County Councillor.
Interesting motivational barchart in the flyer.
These people used to be Lib Dems.
Maybe if the LDs called themselves Ash Independents they could prepare for government.
To be accurate, Jason Zadrozny was a Liberal Democrat - I can't speak for anyone else in the party. They dominate Ashfield District Council and have representation on other authorities.
Not to be confused, as I managed it, with Ashford Independents in Kent, who have a solid presence on Ashford Borough Council.
Jason was scandalously set up by Labour in Ashfield, and LibDem HQ was nervous of backing him in the circumstances. Since when he has continued his effective campaigns under the Ashfield Independent banner.
For a century in Wales Labour have overperformed and under delivered, from Town Councils to the Senedd. Everywhere I go there is disaffection for Labour, and remarkably a great love for a posh Etonian Conservative. I am not convinced that the Welsh love the Conservative Party but they like to see a grafter in a hi-viz coat, so they adore Boris Johnson.
In the days of Jim Griffiths and Denzil Davies, the Labour vote in Llanelli could be weighed rather than counted. A donkey in a red rosette could have won, and in Denzil's day it did. Hell will have frozen over when Llanelli return a Tory. It is cold in Wales today.
I know Llanelli, a little. If Labour can't even hold territory like that then it is finished as a majority party under the current system: I don't see it making enough progress outside of London to reverse the electoral map and start winning large numbers of seats from the Tories in Southern England.
Most likely Labour will have to rely on reducing the Tories to largest single party in a Hung Parliament and ramming through PR at the head of a rainbow coalition. If Scotland falls off before that happens then they may never get the chance.
That's what we were saying in the late 80s about Labour, and the Conservatives in the 2000s. Governments lose election. Quite who this Government lose to is debateable, most likely Labour, but it could be a Tommy Robinson vehicle. At some point they will nonetheless lose.
It's probably safe to assume that the Conservatives will end up losing at some point - it's the nature of the defeat and how long it'll take to happen that's up for debate, and that's possible more uncertain than it has ever been. Nobody was talking about the potential for the dissolution of the country itself in the 1980s or 2000s for starters...
My God, Cambrdigeshire is flat and utterly boring.
The fens, the flat lands and the east - from north of Cambridge to Lincoln, and where Cambs, Lincs and Norfolk meet, and beyond must be the most under appreciated, under visited and magnificent part of England. so much of its charm is that there is so much and no-one goes there. Secret England. Dorothy L Sayers 'Nine Tailors' captures it well.
She writes about it being bleak, unpopulated, a ‘howling wilderness’ and constantly snowing or raining leading to periodic floods.
Doesn’t sound terribly attractive, TBF. If the Norfolk Tourist Board paid her for that, they should ask for their money back.
There is a Boston-based restaurant chain called Legal Sea Foods. Unfortunately, their most local restaurant has closed. It used to have lovely prints of the Broads with the fish/seafood and fishing boats of the region, perhaps from between WWs. Made me want to go.
Personally, I quite like the fens. If you can get a bit of elevation - like, the bank of a drainage ditch - you can see for absolutely miles.
If there were anything to see, you might have a point.
I think the swing away from Welsh Labour is inexorable.
Since 1970, Wales has swung 10% from Labour to Conservative, compared to a swing of 3.5% across the UK as a whole. Of course, in London, Merseyside, and university seats, the swing has been in the other direction.
I think the swing away from Welsh Labour is inexorable.
Since 1970, Wales has swung 10% from Labour to Conservative, compared to a swing of 3.5% across the UK as a whole. Of course, in London, Merseyside, and university seats, the swing has been in the other direction.
1970 itself actually saw a below average swing against Labour compared with the GB average.February 1974 did see a t.
Hooson lost Montgomery in 1979 because of Jeremy Thorpe.
The rural Nonconformist vote was the backbone of the old Liberals in that part of the world.
To them, "Bunnies" only meant small mammals in the family Leporidae of the order Lagomorpha.
I think the swing away from Welsh Labour is inexorable.
Since 1970, Wales has swung 10% from Labour to Conservative, compared to a swing of 3.5% across the UK as a whole. Of course, in London, Merseyside, and university seats, the swing has been in the other direction.
I think the swing away from Welsh Labour is inexorable.
Since 1970, Wales has swung 10% from Labour to Conservative, compared to a swing of 3.5% across the UK as a whole. Of course, in London, Merseyside, and university seats, the swing has been in the other direction.
1970 itself actually saw a below average swing against Labour compared with the GB average.February 1974 did see a swing to the Tories due to the Liberal revival being disproportionately at Labour's expense there -with the party also losing seats to Plaid for the first time at a GE with defeats in Caernarvon and Merionethin North Wales.Not much change in October 1974 with some swing from Tory to Labour - but the party lost Carmarthen again to Plaid's Gwynfor Evans. 1979 saw a dramatic increase in the Tory vote in rural Wales - in seats such as Cardigan, Carmarthen, Montgomery and Brecon & Radnor. It rather sensationally gained Anglesey - with the Brighton barrister Keith Best winning on a massive swing.The Tory advance in Carmarthen was at Plaid's expense and helped Labour take back the seat. I have never been very clear in my mind as to what caused that surge in Tory support in seats such as Montgomery - where the Liberal Emlyn Hooson was defeated - , Cardigan and Carmarthen. Prior to 1979 the latter two seats had regularly seen lost Tory deposits - when the required threshold was 12.5% - yet in that year the Tories were within striking distance of winning both seats. I have wondered whether the very heavy defeat = 80% to 20% - of Devolution in the Referendum held on March 1st two months earlier may have been a significant influence. The Tories had spearheaded the No campaign - though that remains pure speculation on my part.
Hooson lost Montgomery in 1979 because of Jeremy Thorpe.
The rural Nonconformist vote was the backbone of the old Liberals in that part of the world.
To them, "Bunnies" only meant small mammals in the family Leporidae of the order Lagomorpha.
But the Nonconformist vote tended to be Lib/Lab.I was not aware that the Thorpe affair was much of an issue in rural Wales. Geraint Howells in Cardigan was not too badly affected by it - despite the Tory vote surge there.
The section on boundaries has an error I'm afraid. In the abandoned review, which would have cut the total seats to 600, Wales would have got 28 in total. In the current review, Wales will get 32 seats. The entitlements are as follows:
So Flint and Wrexham - 3 Denbigh - 1 Gwynedd, Conwy, Powys - 4 Ynys Mon - 1 Pembs + Ceredigion - 2 Carmarthen - 2 Mons - 1 Torfaen - 1 The rest - 17
Have those groupings been finalised or are you surmising? If the latter then good job. Only quibble would be Gwynedd, Conwy, Powys. Looks tight to fit 4 in under the quota.
For a century in Wales Labour have overperformed and under delivered, from Town Councils to the Senedd. Everywhere I go there is disaffection for Labour, and remarkably a great love for a posh Etonian Conservative. I am not convinced that the Welsh love the Conservative Party but they like to see a grafter in a hi-viz coat, so they adore Boris Johnson.
In the days of Jim Griffiths and Denzil Davies, the Labour vote in Llanelli could be weighed rather than counted. A donkey in a red rosette could have won, and in Denzil's day it did. Hell will have frozen over when Llanelli return a Tory. It is cold in Wales today.
I know Llanelli, a little. If Labour can't even hold territory like that then it is finished as a majority party under the current system: I don't see it making enough progress outside of London to reverse the electoral map and start winning large numbers of seats from the Tories in Southern England.
Most likely Labour will have to rely on reducing the Tories to largest single party in a Hung Parliament and ramming through PR at the head of a rainbow coalition. If Scotland falls off before that happens then they may never get the chance.
That's what we were saying in the late 80s about Labour, and the Conservatives in the 2000s. Governments lose election. Quite who this Government lose to is debateable, most likely Labour, but it could be a Tommy Robinson vehicle. At some point they will nonetheless lose.
Quite so. Although the Tories are rightly favourites for the next GE in 2024 (probably), those on here who are utterly confident that they will win handsomely have learnt little from political history.
A week is a long time in politics; three years is an eternity. Events, dear boy. I can't think of any more tired clichés.
For a century in Wales Labour have overperformed and under delivered, from Town Councils to the Senedd. Everywhere I go there is disaffection for Labour, and remarkably a great love for a posh Etonian Conservative. I am not convinced that the Welsh love the Conservative Party but they like to see a grafter in a hi-viz coat, so they adore Boris Johnson.
In the days of Jim Griffiths and Denzil Davies, the Labour vote in Llanelli could be weighed rather than counted. A donkey in a red rosette could have won, and in Denzil's day it did. Hell will have frozen over when Llanelli return a Tory. It is cold in Wales today.
I know Llanelli, a little. If Labour can't even hold territory like that then it is finished as a majority party under the current system: I don't see it making enough progress outside of London to reverse the electoral map and start winning large numbers of seats from the Tories in Southern England.
Most likely Labour will have to rely on reducing the Tories to largest single party in a Hung Parliament and ramming through PR at the head of a rainbow coalition. If Scotland falls off before that happens then they may never get the chance.
That's what we were saying in the late 80s about Labour, and the Conservatives in the 2000s. Governments lose election. Quite who this Government lose to is debateable, most likely Labour, but it could be a Tommy Robinson vehicle. At some point they will nonetheless lose.
It's probably safe to assume that the Conservatives will end up losing at some point - it's the nature of the defeat and how long it'll take to happen that's up for debate, and that's possible more uncertain than it has ever been. Nobody was talking about the potential for the dissolution of the country itself in the 1980s or 2000s for starters...
I confidently predict that there’ll come a time when the Conservatives will lose power, and PB will be full of analysis and commentary that a party that only stuck up for the interests of economically inactive pensioners is surely destined never to achieve power again.
For a century in Wales Labour have overperformed and under delivered, from Town Councils to the Senedd. Everywhere I go there is disaffection for Labour, and remarkably a great love for a posh Etonian Conservative. I am not convinced that the Welsh love the Conservative Party but they like to see a grafter in a hi-viz coat, so they adore Boris Johnson.
In the days of Jim Griffiths and Denzil Davies, the Labour vote in Llanelli could be weighed rather than counted. A donkey in a red rosette could have won, and in Denzil's day it did. Hell will have frozen over when Llanelli return a Tory. It is cold in Wales today.
I know Llanelli, a little. If Labour can't even hold territory like that then it is finished as a majority party under the current system: I don't see it making enough progress outside of London to reverse the electoral map and start winning large numbers of seats from the Tories in Southern England.
Most likely Labour will have to rely on reducing the Tories to largest single party in a Hung Parliament and ramming through PR at the head of a rainbow coalition. If Scotland falls off before that happens then they may never get the chance.
That's what we were saying in the late 80s about Labour, and the Conservatives in the 2000s. Governments lose election. Quite who this Government lose to is debateable, most likely Labour, but it could be a Tommy Robinson vehicle. At some point they will nonetheless lose.
It's probably safe to assume that the Conservatives will end up losing at some point - it's the nature of the defeat and how long it'll take to happen that's up for debate, and that's possible more uncertain than it has ever been. Nobody was talking about the potential for the dissolution of the country itself in the 1980s or 2000s for starters...
The Tories lost to Boris in 2019. Boris ran against Theresa May's and David Cameron's Conservatives, on a platform composed of Corbynism and Cummingsism. If all you care about is the colour of the rosette, then yes, the blue team won.
My God, Cambrdigeshire is flat and utterly boring.
The fens, the flat lands and the east - from north of Cambridge to Lincoln, and where Cambs, Lincs and Norfolk meet, and beyond must be the most under appreciated, under visited and magnificent part of England. so much of its charm is that there is so much and no-one goes there. Secret England. Dorothy L Sayers 'Nine Tailors' captures it well.
She writes about it being bleak, unpopulated, a ‘howling wilderness’ and constantly snowing or raining leading to periodic floods.
Doesn’t sound terribly attractive, TBF. If the Norfolk Tourist Board paid her for that, they should ask for their money back.
Probably just set in Lincolnshire - but unclear. The landscape writer of the patch is Edward Storey - well worth looking at. DLS's novel is well worth reading - some think it among the greatest detective stories regardless of geography. Pop into Walpole St Peter or West Walton churches sometime - if you can find them. Unbelievable.
I think it is Lincolshire. Vague memory that the French refer to it as 'the coast of Lancollne'. I think that's as specific as it gets.
Yes I think that reference from the French bit is the only reference to a county. It's undoubtedly set in the area where Norfolk, Cambs and Lincs meet. DLS's father had been a vicar in the patch near Welney just in Cambridgeshire. The atmosphere of the book comes from someone who has real emotional attachment to it from having lived there.
For a century in Wales Labour have overperformed and under delivered, from Town Councils to the Senedd. Everywhere I go there is disaffection for Labour, and remarkably a great love for a posh Etonian Conservative. I am not convinced that the Welsh love the Conservative Party but they like to see a grafter in a hi-viz coat, so they adore Boris Johnson.
In the days of Jim Griffiths and Denzil Davies, the Labour vote in Llanelli could be weighed rather than counted. A donkey in a red rosette could have won, and in Denzil's day it did. Hell will have frozen over when Llanelli return a Tory. It is cold in Wales today.
I know Llanelli, a little. If Labour can't even hold territory like that then it is finished as a majority party under the current system: I don't see it making enough progress outside of London to reverse the electoral map and start winning large numbers of seats from the Tories in Southern England.
Most likely Labour will have to rely on reducing the Tories to largest single party in a Hung Parliament and ramming through PR at the head of a rainbow coalition. If Scotland falls off before that happens then they may never get the chance.
That's what we were saying in the late 80s about Labour, and the Conservatives in the 2000s. Governments lose election. Quite who this Government lose to is debateable, most likely Labour, but it could be a Tommy Robinson vehicle. At some point they will nonetheless lose.
Quite so. Although the Tories are rightly favourites for the next GE in 2024 (probably), those on here who are utterly confident that they will win handsomely have learnt little from political history.
A week is a long time in politics; three years is an eternity. Events, dear boy. I can't think of any more tired clichés.
As I have said many times before. I can't see where the economy goes post pandemic. I am not sure incumbency is the place to be, here or elsewhere.
The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop
Vaccines and lockdowns work.
WHO KNEW?
Nobody.
No one *knew* for sure that vaccines would be invented - many said it was impossible - and we couldn't be certain how well they would work.
Wonderfully, fantastically, gloriously they have been invented, and manufactured, at mind-boggling speed, and they work damn well. This is a near miracle. We should note it regularly.
I think you are wrong on this. The advances in genomics, proteomics and synthetic biology are such that people knew, as well as anything in science can be known, that a global effort the size launched by the pharma industry and a couple of governments would produce at least one good vaccine and probably more. The speed, number of successes and effectiveness of most of the efforts is stunning, though.
Hmm. I remember talking to some expert scientists - biologists, academics, epidemiologists - and they were very pessimistic about a quick vaccine. Some said ‘never’. And all were unsure of their efficacy against a still-puzzling enemy
I am sure some people placed at a particular nexus - like you? - had a more positive hunch. I also remember Charles, who has expertise here, being encouragingly optimistic and bullish. He was right, and bravo to you both
But for the rest of us anxious laymen, confronted with different yet authoritative opinions, we did not and could not know
The virus was sequenced on 10 January 2020. A vaccine that is being pumped into American arms, and soon ours, was invented by Moderna on 15 January 2020. So Charles was right to be opitimistic. I’m not sure what date the lamented Eadric started blowing his horn in alarm but I think it was after 15 January, by which time the cavalry was already saddling up. Throughout this the immunologists I have been reading have been far more optimistic than the epidemiologists.
And yet, other experts did speak differently. eg I talked to one lady who is - let us say - very high in Public Health England. She told me in early 2020 that we would probably get vaccines but they would take 2-3 years at best, possibly a lot longer. And she was not completely confident they would work that well.
I haven't spoken to her since but getting several excellent vaccines from inception to distribution and into arms, in less than a year, must utterly amaze her. Certainly amazes me
These are the same people saying the vaccine passports are a necessity as well. They are all extremely and unnecessarily pessimistic about this. They live for the worst case scenario and rubes such as yourself who buy it.
I've said vaxports - other than for international travel - should be voluntary, sector by sector, firm by firm. I do not agree with making them compulsory within the UK
If businesses think they will help encourage cautious customers - eg theatres - they should be allowed to impose them
My strategy is eminently sensible and will benefit the economy. I know I am extremely important and influential, but it's not actually my fault if the government makes a silly mistake
Sensible free market solution.
I don't think any of us anti vaxport people have said businesses shouldn't be allowed to choose to do so its all largely we object to it being mandatory for the business
Not on this site so much but quite a few people elsewhere have said businesses shouldn't be allowed to "discriminate" based on vaccine status.
My view is that the number of businesses actually wanting to implement vaccine passports "for their customers", in the absence of any Government incentives to do so, will be vanishingly small, so the question about whether they should be "allowed" to thus discriminate is almost purely hypothetical.
For a century in Wales Labour have overperformed and under delivered, from Town Councils to the Senedd. Everywhere I go there is disaffection for Labour, and remarkably a great love for a posh Etonian Conservative. I am not convinced that the Welsh love the Conservative Party but they like to see a grafter in a hi-viz coat, so they adore Boris Johnson.
In the days of Jim Griffiths and Denzil Davies, the Labour vote in Llanelli could be weighed rather than counted. A donkey in a red rosette could have won, and in Denzil's day it did. Hell will have frozen over when Llanelli return a Tory. It is cold in Wales today.
I know Llanelli, a little. If Labour can't even hold territory like that then it is finished as a majority party under the current system: I don't see it making enough progress outside of London to reverse the electoral map and start winning large numbers of seats from the Tories in Southern England.
Most likely Labour will have to rely on reducing the Tories to largest single party in a Hung Parliament and ramming through PR at the head of a rainbow coalition. If Scotland falls off before that happens then they may never get the chance.
That's what we were saying in the late 80s about Labour, and the Conservatives in the 2000s. Governments lose election. Quite who this Government lose to is debateable, most likely Labour, but it could be a Tommy Robinson vehicle. At some point they will nonetheless lose.
It's probably safe to assume that the Conservatives will end up losing at some point - it's the nature of the defeat and how long it'll take to happen that's up for debate, and that's possible more uncertain than it has ever been. Nobody was talking about the potential for the dissolution of the country itself in the 1980s or 2000s for starters...
The Tories lost to Boris in 2019. Boris ran against Theresa May's and David Cameron's Conservatives, on a platform composed of Corbynism and Cummingsism. If all you care about is the colour of the rosette, then yes, the blue team won.
Isabel Hardman: There is another reason for this lack of self-esteem and, as with Labour, it’s about the leader. Even though Boris Johnson is in his strongest position since the pandemic started, thanks again to that vaccination programme, he is not a typical Conservative and never has been. He has always been better than most of his colleagues at articulating why Conservatism makes sense: his columns as a journalist explaining competition, for instance, put ministers trying to implement policies enabling this to shame. But he is not an ideologue. Part of his success as mayor of London was down to his ability to take on traditional Labour policies, such as hikes in the minimum wage, housebuilding and so on. Most Conservatives like his ability to win big, but the means of doing so sometimes leave them feeling confused about whether, at heart, they really agree with their leader.
This is one of the ingredients in the Tory identity crisis: it’s rarely clear what he really believes. He prefers to play off rival ideological camps against one another in a “survival of the fittest” approach to policymaking. This does have the virtue of ensuring that his aides are always sharpening their arguments in order to win his backing. But it also means that internally government feels dysfunctional and outwardly can sound confused if rival camps start leaking against each other, which they often do. If those in the centre aren’t clear what the government is going to do next, what hope does the average Tory MP have?
The UK’s challenging vaccine target, 32m first doses by April 15, will be met next week. A week early
Impressive
It may already have been met but we're in the middle of Easter reporting delays. For example my brother in law (34) got his invite for a first dose, he has no pre-existing conditions and isn't a key worker or carer or anything like that.
I contacted my GP surgery that I've registered with an I was told that my age group will be contacted "within two weeks".
Shit. The drinks are going to be on me at the next pb meet aren't they !
My God, Cambrdigeshire is flat and utterly boring.
The fens, the flat lands and the east - from north of Cambridge to Lincoln, and where Cambs, Lincs and Norfolk meet, and beyond must be the most under appreciated, under visited and magnificent part of England. so much of its charm is that there is so much and no-one goes there. Secret England. Dorothy L Sayers 'Nine Tailors' captures it well.
She writes about it being bleak, unpopulated, a ‘howling wilderness’ and constantly snowing or raining leading to periodic floods.
Doesn’t sound terribly attractive, TBF. If the Norfolk Tourist Board paid her for that, they should ask for their money back.
Probably just set in Lincolnshire - but unclear. The landscape writer of the patch is Edward Storey - well worth looking at. DLS's novel is well worth reading - some think it among the greatest detective stories regardless of geography. Pop into Walpole St Peter or West Walton churches sometime - if you can find them. Unbelievable.
I think it is Lincolshire. Vague memory that the French refer to it as 'the coast of Lancollne'. I think that's as specific as it gets.
Yes I think that reference from the French bit is the only reference to a county. It's undoubtedly set in the area where Norfolk, Cambs and Lincs meet. DLS's father had been a vicar in the patch near Welney just in Cambridgeshire. The atmosphere of the book comes from someone who has real emotional attachment to it from having lived there.
Yes - coming back to the thread header, one might even say she is expressung hiraeth.
If you're the leader of a political party then you have to expect this sort of thing. I imagine that Farage has had more abuse hurled at him that anyone else in British politics. He's not whinging.
If you're the leader of a political party then you have to expect this sort of thing. I imagine that Farage has had more abuse hurled at him that anyone else in British politics. He's not whinging.
The UK’s challenging vaccine target, 32m first doses by April 15, will be met next week. A week early
Impressive
It may already have been met but we're in the middle of Easter reporting delays. For example my brother in law (34) got his invite for a first dose, he has no pre-existing conditions and isn't a key worker or carer or anything like that.
I contacted my GP surgery that I've registered with an I was told that my age group will be contacted "within two weeks".
One might almost be tempted soon to conclude that the whole "massive slow down in supplies" issue was a cunning piece of Government disinformation in the midst of the battles going on re: EU exports...
If you're the leader of a political party then you have to expect this sort of thing. I imagine that Farage has had more abuse hurled at him that anyone else in British politics. He's not whinging.
Kennedy, being long dead, isn’t whinging either.
No he's not. And he'd not do so either in my view. He was a really good guy.
If you're the leader of a political party then you have to expect this sort of thing. I imagine that Farage has had more abuse hurled at him that anyone else in British politics. He's not whinging.
Kennedy, being long dead, isn’t whinging either.
Also, given some of the stories, wasn't there an argument that his alcoholism was a legitimate target. People with serious personal private issues don't have to stand for public office - whether all personal problems are legitimate targets is a valid question, but alcoholism seems more legitimate than many.
Comments
- 12 weeks between doses
- not stockpiling the second doses
- targeting the elderly first, with a 75% assumed "accuracy rate"
Would probably double Europes vaccination rate, if adopted.
Given Good Friday, that's unsurprisingly occured today.
There were said to be UK/EU negotiations on what would happen with those doses, but not heard any news on that yet? Would be good to get more supply that we paid for.
Today Israel has reported 136 new cases, and 4 deaths. Covid has essentially disappeared
Interesting motivational barchart in the flyer.
These people used to be Lib Dems.
Bank Holiday effects are top secret - just like Weekend effects.
It's not hard, though, as my prior haircut (done by me) made me look 15 years older
Another reason he has to be deadly serious and rigid all the time is to contrast himself with his predecessor. I think his problem there is the things people liked about Jez were his passion and conviction, Starmer has tried to not be seen to resemble Corbyn at all and he just seems dull by comparison.
https://www.postgraduate.study.cam.ac.uk/courses/directory/mmmmmpsmc
A joke of an institution.
Be aware of a relatively large deaths figure coming on Wed which will reflect those which might have been reported on Friday or Tuesday if it wasn't Easter.
We will have a clearer and more reliable idea of trends early the following week, expect the 7 day deaths rate to be around 200 then, and cases maybe 20,000 - 25,000 for the same 7 days. You might see a lower 7 day deaths rate early next week but it is likely to reverse out to an extent Wed/Thur next week.
Since 1970, Wales has swung 10% from Labour to Conservative, compared to a swing of 3.5% across the UK as a whole. Of course, in London, Merseyside, and university seats, the swing has been in the other direction.
https://www.ox.ac.uk/admissions/graduate/courses/mst-film-aesthetics
Where Fen Poly leads Cowley Tech follows.
from cases
from hospitalisations
Seriously though, the boat race should be for undergraduates only.
Such a lovely day today.
Doesn’t sound terribly attractive, TBF. If the Norfolk Tourist Board paid her for that, they should ask for their money back.
But not like the Empty Quarter - daytime highs of 50c, nighttime lows 0c or less pretty much every day.
Another thing to consider is that studies (such as the Edinburgh one) showed the increase in antibodies, after the first vaccination, was slower for old people - taking quite a few weeks to peak.
I think peak comedy was achieved when they tried to get Steve Redgrave to do a degree from Oxford....
However, I'm looking forward to a trip all the way to Durham for my second jab.
Walk then run.
There's already a pre-pandemic version.
For a century in Wales Labour have overperformed and under delivered, from Town Councils to the Senedd. Everywhere I go there is disaffection for Labour, and remarkably a great love for a posh Etonian Conservative. I am not convinced that the Welsh love the Conservative Party but they like to see a grafter in a hi-viz coat, so they adore Boris Johnson.
In the days of Jim Griffiths and Denzil Davies, the Labour vote in Llanelli could be weighed rather than counted. A donkey in a red rosette could have won, and in Denzil's day it did. Hell will have frozen over when Llanelli return a Tory. It is cold in Wales today.
Besides, all that flat land up North is there to show off Ely, which rises out of it like a miracle.
Impressive
https://twitter.com/SundayTimesSco/status/1378625278252101632?s=20
Most likely Labour will have to rely on reducing the Tories to largest single party in a Hung Parliament and ramming through PR at the head of a rainbow coalition. If Scotland falls off before that happens then they may never get the chance.
I contacted my GP surgery that I've registered with an I was told that my age group will be contacted "within two weeks".
1979 saw a dramatic increase in the Tory vote in rural Wales - in seats such as Cardigan, Carmarthen, Montgomery and Brecon & Radnor. It rather sensationally gained Anglesey - with the Brighton barrister Keith Best winning on a massive swing.The Tory advance in Carmarthen was at Plaid's expense and helped Labour take back the seat. I have never been very clear in my mind as to what caused that surge in Tory support in seats such as Montgomery - where the Liberal Emlyn Hooson was defeated - , Cardigan and Carmarthen. Prior to 1979 the latter two seats had regularly seen lost Tory deposits - when the required threshold was 12.5% - yet in that year the Tories were within striking distance of winning both seats. I have wondered whether the very heavy defeat = 80% to 20% - of Devolution in the Referendum held on March 1st two months earlier may have been a significant influence. The Tories had spearheaded the No campaign - though that remains pure speculation on my part.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Llanelli_(Senedd_Cymru_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1990s
Not to be confused, as I managed it, with Ashford Independents in Kent, who have a solid presence on Ashford Borough Council.
The section on boundaries has an error I'm afraid. In the abandoned review, which would have cut the total seats to 600, Wales would have got 28 in total. In the current review, Wales will get 32 seats. The entitlements are as follows:
Blaenau Gwent: 0.69
Bridgend: 1.48
Caerphilly: 1.81
Cardiff: 3.43
Carmarthenshire: 1.94
Ceredigion: 0.77
Conwy: 1.23
Denbighshire: 1.01
Flintshire: 1.60
Gwynedd: 1.19
Merthyr Tydfil: 0.61
Monmouthshire: 0.99
Neath Port Talbot: 1.47
Newport: 1.53
Pembrokeshire: 1.29
Powys: 1.42
Rhondda Cynon Taff: 2.38
Swansea: 2.44
Torfaen: 0.96
Vale of Glamorgan: 1.35
Wrexham: 1.33
Plus the protected seat of Ynys Mon
So Flint and Wrexham - 3
Denbigh - 1
Gwynedd, Conwy, Powys - 4
Ynys Mon - 1
Pembs + Ceredigion - 2
Carmarthen - 2
Mons - 1
Torfaen - 1
The rest - 17
The rural Nonconformist vote was the backbone of the old Liberals in that part of the world.
To them, "Bunnies" only meant small mammals in the family Leporidae of the order Lagomorpha.
If the latter then good job. Only quibble would be Gwynedd, Conwy, Powys. Looks tight to fit 4 in under the quota.
A week is a long time in politics; three years is an eternity. Events, dear boy. I can't think of any more tired clichés.
I confidently predict that there’ll come a time when the Conservatives will lose power, and PB will be full of analysis and commentary that a party that only stuck up for the interests of economically inactive pensioners is surely destined never to achieve power again.
I only hope I live to see it.
This is one of the ingredients in the Tory identity crisis: it’s rarely clear what he really believes. He prefers to play off rival ideological camps against one another in a “survival of the fittest” approach to policymaking. This does have the virtue of ensuring that his aides are always sharpening their arguments in order to win his backing. But it also means that internally government feels dysfunctional and outwardly can sound confused if rival camps start leaking against each other, which they often do. If those in the centre aren’t clear what the government is going to do next, what hope does the average Tory MP have?